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HomeMy WebLinkAbout0130.094~ w February 3, 1994 THE HONORABLE CITY COUlIC IL Palo Ai to ~ Ca 1 ifornia Attention: Finance Committee "/'. ( PPM" or lDWfCIAL 'l'IlpD MQlrIfORUlG STSTU J'ACTQRS Member& of the council: ,-.~ .. " ..... "-. This is an informational report only and no Council' action. is required. This report updates the Financial Trend Monitoring System (FTMS) Indicators, introduced in the Economic Fl.:.ture study issued in April 1993, usinq the General Fund operating results provided in the. 1992-93 Comprehensive Annual Financial Report 'CAFR)~ In many ways the 1992-93 operating results reinforce the findings of the 1993 Econo.ic Future study: General Fund expenditures have been curbed to offset declining revenues; discretionary .fund bal~~ remain healthy despite multi-billion dollar State budget sbortfalls~ Gradual chanqes in the individual FTMS faotors serve to illustrate the need tor continued monitorinq so that emerqinq trends can be quickly identified~ B1CIGJtoOJU) In April 1993, the City council was provided with a report on Phase I of the Econoaic Future Study, which examined the City's General Fund revenues and. expenditures utilizinq FI'MS. Fourteen indicators from the FTHS .odel were evaluated in order to determine trends in the City's lonq-term financial health. wi th ~"')e cCJlpletion of the 1992-93 CAFR., the indicators can :be updated with an additional year of actual results. This update allows for a new snapshot of the fiscal health of the city. In ord.er to analyze financial trends, Consumer Price Index {CPI) factors have been applied to previous years' data, yieldinq comparable data in the fora of co~stant dollars~ CIIR:llO:94 • o , EXECUTIVE SUMMARY J 1992-93 Souka AND USE, OF FUNDS ($Mn.IJ""") .F .. ~Tt T...:.: AI: O"r-.e.. T~ S21,17t ~", .... __ Su.1/'l<1 f~ It f'l;.J .... :n. ..01 S4,',U TOTAl G!NnAL Fr..'N& $66,614 Orr.J.hTl'NC. T .... "'I:'I'.ul-.; IL~'" ("..oNTlJ',_' Su~ ... ", ........... ~ Sm: t.u.st: PAYJIe,oTI f4,<M.l .. StJn1~ M..""'ll~l.!I It On;u: SIO,'9U • To 1lrli'J:"'" Sl,111 Tht 1991-" 1noJ,.1OU" ~ raalu d d.. c'i1r". ("-.-.) nod _I:.-nr..I 5~"tt<vui ...... ~..Jb a.-.~_~<tr'-"il\.o e~~_ ..... " It.io.~dw ~ rJ1Iw!'1'MS ia&.non n1iu.! i1II W F~ r ... ..,:s.t.Jy dar,.",._ aoem,~.-.ib Ift,Ji ~ Q,. ~ d the City', 5.aar.c:iaol iInlti. ic ...... y~ Cb,u.. ~ im;-u£..o.u.,.l;ute'. ~ ..... dao: ftUfIIi.-ar:r ~IG], d. cit,"'-P...J3AMk.~ai*'CD--.a &:I~"""""'.i:l.lllQJI""""'fi...,.J ran· ~ewm:t-* .. dwAB.702 (PERS) :-t'-: &om tb.: Sw;r (S:Z , ...as... "'lm.91) .. ...,~ ~ftw m-~. HO'WrO'Cr, Jr.n &Ilowi.c: f,)./"-J. ,"",",-~n-u.,.a.b.._ ~ u ___ ....... inod.I~. ~ City '. ~1! .. ",,0U7"'.Q,.~...nt. dw ~ reI __ reaJu .. iWJ.. "won tJo,~ "'"tad,.. .... IIU'. _110.,1.: m.vaaa...t W~ ia tAc ~Qaic F.tu.r s-fr, 11M-<'..ny'. M~ .... w"''"' .... ..., C'OAlia.ee1 10 iaCreaH ~aKlilftW'llhi:z.d.-~ ~.l.pndom~~Gm­......... ~ ~ .. Uac~FT&ti~ yioold. f>ud.:r ...... U!_~ ufr-_ tad...,.,...,.. iz, wfD:b. ~ __ .,_Llwfr;o-.-· __ ~--i --i i r----1 J1~r t~Of<R.JV\r~"U(L.:>n_II.U!.Ir.) / .1 "r-·-·-,~~~~jC 1 SCMi __ + +_ _J 1!'9.1 • OPuAnJ«;~.n.n{~~ SOl C.-lin) • 0t0u...11N:. ~~ \1PTTHOl)? Scw.>ot. Sm: c ... "ST)j CMR.: 13.0: 94 2 .', 1 , • -- I --4 'Evc.m.~'""~-tGo~;Du"'" tbt~, ~ 'IIIlt_""~ ... __ .Dodt_~_ .. fI" al'kl'llll c-.l.F.d-.. 1 CoNS!RUC1ION Acm'!T'l 1'191 N\_UFhuIm~(SGOCl VM~"'~) m.hleAlcvd!.i.~pacnDy n:&cutJ:,..\r.-o:l of ~ md~~_~baiWi.p_ p~se.dok, ~.....,.~~m.lk~l'Wq..,Qn~ a..~, .... -m..cl~poriiotM~_ CXR;130:94 3 .- EXECUTIVE SliMMARY i SJ.U!S Tu J.zvt:!.,.'1..'15PS CI.ft't& ("~,,",,, ......... ,\ F~ yn: 1"2-~3 resaIts mthis:a.rea S\l!Ft lOme i!ubiliulioc of this iudiuiOf, whidl may ref1.«t tbr :J"IV!tch 1(l1praa~e:IIIPoYtr braltb LIl.Ju,rilJl.ce progum ia I~ 1~3. CIote EDOcairoria£ of this Uctor will o:nnlllDe. -1u:l-~TUl ENPlOYtl l.J.AY! (CON5'T.A.."'I'I: DOU.u.o) • s...~l.cJ.1'E-• VM~"'l'1<}'Ou.--"""l- n.. r-io _ ~ tn::nd u..Jic:.uq., a~ u lUQoaDto ~~w....,.".~.io~cI.olI&n,~o;br 19'1ln t-l ,~""",~, n. Ulo:r_ iD :oK:lI. v-c. ~.-tIW &ttor MI.ocUd. 'be .EaocW.onddo:.:!y" dot fpt..,.,.. .Jii. I r rIDlfCUL '1'RDID XOlfiTOlIIJ1G SYS'I'ElI 8~ of IndiC&t~r. Palo Alto Warning Six-Year Trend Historical Trend FlNAIICIM. FACTORS Per capita Revenues Decrease I Flat> sales Tax Revenue Dacrease Flat· Per capita .EXpenditures Increase Decreasing' Employees Per capita Increase Decreasinq Starting Employee Frinqe to Benefits Increase Decrease Oper .. Unq Surplus or Deficit Deficit Surplus Discretionary Reserve Balances :o.crease Increasinq Debt. Service Increase Decre.esinq Lonq-TerJI De bt Increase Decreasinq Accumulated Employee Leave Increase Flat ENVIRONllEN'l'AL FACTORS Assessed Value Decrease Increasinq Construction Activity Oecrease Decreasinq "These two measures have declined. However, Comments Shift to manaqed care hea.l th plan should continue to provide savings Year-end budget Ravings Year-end blidqet savings Prolonged eoconomic: recession when adjusted for a one-time retroactive sales tax re-allocation, they are 'flat~ CMR,1)O:94 " \ J'DmJlCZIoL !'RElIt! ICOIli'l'OR I»G n8ri:ll FACTORS Revenue& par capita, adjusted for inflation, are decreasinq~ In the original Economic }"uture Stud!r', this indicator 'Was ider,tified as beinq flat. with the addition of the actuals for 1992-93. revenues per capita are declininq. Ho~ever, the 1992-93 actuals include a one-time retroactive sales tax reallocation of $L 6 lIillion. DBLZ 1: _. RJ:R OdI'U --...... 1111 .... U8'-U un-va 1ttO-I1 If.Pl-P2 151512-1'3 jOpe .. t ... Revenu •• (SOOO} $64 ~ 999 $61.692 $6:J,S!i5 $61,144 $66,751 $·66,614 CPI Constant Dol1a.rs Adj ustaent. 1.228 1.171 1.124 1.0il 1.031 1.00C Het Ope:u.t11lq :Ftewnues In ($000) Con~tant $79,818 $12,241 $71,4Sl $66,128 $68,820 $66 r E14 1992-93 Dollars population SIS,900 56,950 57,400 56,DCO 55,900 S"7.300 H-=-t. Operat.1ntl fleOJenue rex capita, In Constant $1,40l $1,269 $1,245 $1,181 $1,231 $1 1 1'63 1992-93 Dollars; CIIR:lJO:94 s sales tax revenues have continued to decline over the past six years~ Included in the decline is the reallocation of sales tax previously raceived tram Sun Microsystems, Inc., of $1~6 million over three years. It this is excluded trom the six-year trend, sales tax revenues remain flat. Therefore, despite the continued recession and. relocation of bus-inges, this factor appears to be "table. Since salas tax revenue is 20 percent of General FUnd revenues, this i. a positive trend. However, growth in sales tax revenue would be the key to supporting any expenditure qrowth above cu~ent levels ot service. &aLI: Z: ULJ.I BX~. haC!dpti.oa un-e. nu-ISII .1989-90 Inc-u USol.-'2 U!il2-J] Sa.l.1!"5 Tax ]ll:evenul! (.$OC{)) $11,590 U2,409 Sl3,98"1 $1-4,140 $14,692 $l3~l22 CPI con.ata..n.t Do11a£8 Adju.t.ant 1.228 LI7l 1.124 1.071 1.~JI 1.000 ~&l.a Taz Reyenu •• Iu {;fOOO) Con.tlll:lt ,US .. Ul 514,53) US,721 .nS,U4 $15,147 ,u3,322 1992-513 Dollan Population 56.'00 56,950 51,400 56,OOC! 55,900 57,lIJ0 ilfet S .. le$ '!'.x a.v_null Per capit:e~ In Cor.;.!IItant $2:72 ~255 $2'74 $270 $2?l .$232 1992-93 Dollars aIR:1.30:94 6 P.r r.apita zz,.Ddi~ur •• The per capita expenditures indicator reflects changes in City ~itures relative to changes in population. The warning trend tor this indicator would be increasing expenditures~ As di.cussed in the original Economic Future study, school site costs are removed from this indicator. because the city agreement with t.~e Palo Alto Unitied School District is paid for through the utility usar tax. Wban achool site coats are removed, there is a decrease in per capita expenditures over the six-year period. This trend Shows positive ~iscal aanaqement. raat.a 1: J'Bll CAPID. UPDiDI~S n..ar.1pt.1.oD, l'87-11i118 UI.· .. lP8J-iO U90-!iIl lJt1·.2 U5112-'! Ope.:at:1nq ZJ::.pendi ture3 ($000) $U, SOl $.58,61.6 $53,638 $55,2(1:9 $59,349 $EO, 474 CPI COh.Stant ~ll.r. Adjustment 1.22' 1.171 1.124 L 0:1 1 • ~J) 1.000 Ret oper.tin9 Expenditure$ ,. (:$(lOO) Con:!'ltant Hl,2Bl $£8,674 .$60,2eg $,59,,215 .$61, leg $60,474 1992-93 Dolla.ra Population 56,5100 !lfi,9S0 57,400 56,000 55;900 57,300 lI.t Op.r .. t~nlJ Espenc11'tures 'er c .. jlit ... In Constant: $1,,077 U,20E $1,050 .$1,057 $1,095 $1,055 1992-93 Dollars Adj~ted let Op~ratin; '!.xpendi tur. s ,. {$COOJ Co&utllnt 199.2-93 (.u.OU.lil .f58,f:U $57,901 $SE,B05 :,54,8a $S5"SSO $54,84.2 Sc:h-col Site CQ.:5ts; Per CoIl"ita1 txpencfiture.!l in C:OI<!lt~t !)ollars (air,us School .s i te co s t s} n,c:n $1, till U90 $979 $994 $95' aCR:130:94 , 1DIp1oy ••• Poor Capi t.a EaployeeB per c£.pit" i.& beqinning to decrease. Absent any ne ... ' service levels required by council emplcyees, pe.r capita should rellUlir. flat. in tuture yeara~ This is a positi've trend, as the warninq trend tor this indic&tor would be an increase in a.ployees per capita~ ~1oZ ,: .......,na. PO. C'D%~.a. hllla.d.pUoD UI1-I. UII-IS U&.-,Q UIO-Il 1'JJ.-&.2 lUll-I] (ieee.r.l 'und Employees Putill.C S.f.t:y 2!Jti, SO HI. tlO 288.00 tell.OO ;281.00 21:17.0Co Otber 311. 1 5 lU.55 36 •• 42 ::'65.61' 366.25 366.50 .. ..,. 67<::.25 £iSl.S5 ~52. 42 653.67 1053.25 '53.50 Popul«tion 56,900 56~ 'SCi 5,.400 56,00C 55,900 57.300 Bllplo~u .er 1.0P(? Popl,llatio;a 11. ,. 11.46 11. 31 11. 67 11. 69 11.40 CHR:130:94 8 Employee fringe bentifit8 costs ~re startinq to decrease. This is due to the change troll I!l selt-i!'lsured health plan to a Publ,l,.c taployees Medical and Health Cbre Act (PEMHCA), a managed health care plan. The savinqa from this chanqe are somewhat offset by large one-ti.e adjustuents tor workera' co.pensation liabilities. In future ye-llT&, benefits should continue to decreaser This is positive, 08.8 the warninq trend: fGr this indicator would be an increase in eaployee fringe benefits ~s a percentaqe of salaries. ~u s: .......,. ....... .~ AJiD URns • De.czipUoD. 19;ea-U 15118511-510 IUO-91 1nl-Pl' 1U1-93 5~1a.ri.1 $2i,260 $28,975 '30,126 '32",IIH -#:.34,25.3 •• nelita, includl.ng one- t:i.e .P.BRS c:.::,,4itll F9,394 $51,646 .$9,4102 $10,010 :e9,78;! OZie-Ti •• PERS c:r~t1it.lll $1 , 13 9 $2, 166 $~,601 Total 8enelit., ex~lud.inq PIR.5 'Crao:::li.tll $8.394 $9,. 648 $10,540 Sl2,236 .$12,389 8euefita •• • PI-rclllntilge Of Seleri." 30.711 33.30' 3 •. 30' 3'.28-1 3'.171 CIIR:13D:94 9 GeBaral JUDd Operating Surpluo (oertelt I The Gener-e.l Fund continues to have positive operating results. This is largely dUB to several one-ti~e events such as the AB702 Public Employees Retire:!le.nt system {PERS) credit. These e. .... ents are diseu&sed in detail in the 1992-93 Year-Eild Financial swnmary (CMR:5S1:93). Once the on~-time events are re~oved from the 1992- 93 actual., a surplus of $569,000 remain~. This is positive, as ~~. warninq trend for this indictor would be for the General Fund to be in a deficit situation. DBi.I. S; QDIDUI,L PWm ~ 8aRPWII (DZrlcnJ --11118'1-', UBI-It 1!i1U-JO 1990-'1 U'l-',2 1J5I2-!i113 General Fund O?e-rati:nq Surplue (Deficit) $3 r lU $S.~4a ;'$04.,74.1 (SI81) $4,458 $4 ... 380 CIpflnt.i..ng Revenues {SOOO) $64,998 $U, E9;:: $63,595 $61,144 $66,151 $66,614 Gene:r&l. Ftmd Op.e.ratlnq Surplus CDe:!ic:itJ •• • Percenuqe of Openting f.7:n 8.99' 7.4.51 -0.2''''' E.E8t 6.5st RoVeJ>ue. CMR'1l0:94 10 ! , I ~ ! i D11cret1onary •••• rv •• 01ecretiona.ry reserves continue to increaso. This is primarily due to several one-time occurrences, as discussed in the 1992-93 Year­ End Financial summary/Capital Improvement program (elP} Financial statue Report and Budget Closing (CMR:S81:93i~ ~he balance in the BucSget Stabilization Reserve remains with the C-ouncil-approvecl range ot between 10 and 30 percent of operating revanue. The warning trend tor this indioator would be decreasinq discretionary reaervec. 1--_"" 7, DI.cu:nOlO.U :u:~. ($000) 11187-·" U88-1S1 Hlet-tO 11110·)1 19S1l.-.l2 llUt2-tl 'Re"erv. For Eae=-!l~ciell $4,000 $3, r;J 00 $5,000 SS,OO;') $ 5. ace $5, (100 Eud;.t Stabili,_tion "esl!rva .s 4, SIlO!' $4i,336 $5,ln $5,415 .$ll,366 $1l~4H Re:~er-v. ror 5tree-t::I A:1.d S1~cW'alts 11.688 $2,279 $16-7 $632 HBS ,US 11.8102 JC:e3erve '1,23e $2,166 84,772 ~~&nee8 To Other I'urui .. ,101,155 $1,681 $2,09' $2,057 SH1 " Tot .. l Di~c~etion.ry ite:lerves Ul, iSS $11, 2~6 512, !liZ $14,952 $19,464 $22~121 Ope-ratLDg Patvenues $64,998 ·H1,692 $'3,595 '6l,144 $U,"lSl $6E,614 B~iet S~&bili=ation Re.se,r.re &~ • Perc:.nt .. ql! i.!;6t 7,O:HI 1;.49' •. 77t n.03'i 1"1.1911 of Op~~&tiD9 Revenue CMR:130:94 11 This indicator examines the. change in lonq-ter-m debt, as a percantaqe ot aSS8Sged valuation, and ot debt service as a percentaqe of net opel'atinq revenues. The 'Warning trend would. be fer either ~actor to be increaBinq~ Both debt as a percentaqe of net operating revenues and debt as a percentaqe of assessed valuation are decreasing. ~I: 8IlID.&L LOJiIII-DmC DD'l' J.Ml) DD'! sZJtna Deac.riptiOT. un-Ie un-It Uat-IO l.IltCl-~l 1U1-12 Ut2-t3 Ge!'l.rill Lon;;l-!'era Dob, Se.rvic.1I UOOOj S2,5116 '2,ia9 .$2,541 $J, 1J 9 '2,765 ,2,SU Ope.ratin9' ',~vlinue5 ,E4,998 '61 t 692 $01)3,595 $61. '"' .. ~ HS,151 HE. £14 ~bt S • .n.-ice ".!II • P.rc.D~a9. cf _et t.4U t.52' 4.0:" s.on 4.1U 3.Ut Op8ratiD9 Rev.nue~ ~a •• sed Valuation r.$otlo.oaC} '5,1'3 $5,340 $5, U4 "",S02 $6, 54 9 P,4H ('..en • .r .. l Lon.;-'Zerm neb, OI::l:i.giltion ,20, En $19, iSH $20,334 U9,OUi nO,lias $19,331 ~~.ral Long-Te~ Debt ~.4CI 0.37\ 0.351 0.29' 0.3(" 0.4:611 ... & Pe%CUlt*oe of A3~~3sed Valu.tiQD CHR:130:94 12 , • Accuaulate4 Baploy •• L.ave The warning trend .for this indicator is increasing amounts Qf accumulated leave per employen. Accumulated leave has two components: unused vac.ation and the liability for unused sick leave for certain employees who were hired before 19B) and have 15 years of service. There are currently 171 employees eligible tor the benefit at tarmination of 2.5 p~cent of the current value of thair accumulated sick leave for each year ot service. It is root expected that this will aecrease substantially until 1998, after which no new employees will be eligible for this benefit.. The value of Ul"lused vacation leave increased slightly in 1992-93; however, the overall trend seems to remain flat. This is an indicator that should be watched carefully in upcoming years. It should be noted that two of t.'le Fl"MS factors rel~' on ce.nSUB data. since ney census data is not available, these factor&, Table 11: Population and Table l~: Personal Income Per Capita in 1990 Dollars, h.@.ve not been upd;5,ted. ~ -... t, \".ALIlZ or DWtI'SJ:D a:lr;x LEAVE =l ---15II • .,-1I1!J UII-II 1915-»0 1"0-5111 ll1Jl-'2 11"2-13 Valye of unused Sick Loave ($000) $1,917 $2,220 $2,231 $2 .. "12 $2,541 $2,651 CPI (Constant Dc11~X5 1.932-93 -1.00.1 1.228 1.1'71 1.124 LOn 1.031 1.000 Value of t1nU3ed Sick Leave fC~M:t..ant 1992-$3 $2,354 $2,600 .$2,508 $2 . .5SJ $2,1520 $2,65'7 Dollara) ($OCOI NUJIIber of Eltploye-es "2 190 'SO 'H 175 In Value Per Eaployee (Co:e.s.t.ant 1992-93 Doollan, $12,931 $13,682 $13,931 $14,432 $14,970 $15,538 CMR:130:94 13 • @ Accumulated. Employ •• Luv. e continued) nlIU 10; VAl.mI or DJroSZD ~OII' L2A,.VZ ~ ..... U"-II UII-II 1111-.0 llJC-tl 1"1-U; U82-J3 Val\1«! of unU$ed: Vacaticn " .. "" {$.?OOi $2,77S $2,147 $2. 900 $2.901 $3.063 $3,244 cpt ,CunataAt D~ll&rs U92-S3 -1.001 l.22a 1.:..71 1.124 1.0?1 1.031 1.000 Value 0 f Unused V .. catioD .... ve (Constant. 1992-93 $3,4013 $3,21,,/ $3,260 $3,113 $3,158 $3,244 Cellar.) ($000) ~ of Ellployee-s "0.25 652.55 ~52. 42 654.1 j 65L25 ~53.S ·{£l.lJ.e Per EaplQyee (Constant 199Z-J3 Dollars) $5,014 .$4.9Z~ $4,996 54,"'!'5' $4,83-4 $4, '64 CJIR:13C:94 b ••••• 1IS Value As.eased value continues to increasa. The warning tre~d tor this indicator would be a decrease in the assessed v~lue o~ the housing stOCk of tbe City of Palo Alto. The increase in assessed value is ao.ewhat .lower, indicative of the overall recession. I'.u..t.a 13: u .... ~ 'O..LVII h-.d.p:.t.. itt'"'' 1",-1J 111'-'0 18510-11 1.,1·,.2 1 .. .3 .. " AtI.se .. .sed VAL:,,.!! f$ Hlll1on) 5,163 5,340 5, S6.4 6,5Q2 " 94:9 '~4H OPI C:oQ>ltaru: DI)11111:. Adj 1.111 tJU!l:t (19!i2-9J :I>:Il14,n) 1.22' 1.17::' 1.UA 1.071 l.On 1.000 A.s •• .s •• d Velu. (COnstu.t ltt:2-'3 Dollu.l ( SMilli-on) $&,H!) $6,2~J SE,S91 .$5,9 .. 4 $7,1154 $7,4H 1'.,E"c.lIlt Cbaa.v. i. JUIII ••• ed: Value (CODstatlt -1. 31% 5.011'11 S.liS' 2.UII 3.90' Dollu:.) CIIR,130:94 15 Pazai" Act! vUl' Perait activity is shoving a decrease. In the Economic Fut~re study. this indicator 'W8_ ide.ntified as stable. With an additional year ot inror.ation, it appears to have begun to decreasa over the pa.t six years.. This is a warning trend and should be watched car_tully. ~Ui; ~ A,J;t'XVIH -:MamZk or I'EJQ(Il'. riacal Year INDUSTRIAL C~RCIAl. RES !DENT IAL ALL OTHERS 'on!. 198'7-88 10 '11 1,100 ., 2,502 199$-89 , HE 1,130 65 1,514 1989-91> ) JJl l,H!t 53 J.,5SE 1990-91 • 342 1, C'SB 7. 1,SOi 1991-'92 11 3SS 1,081 ., 1, Sol 6 1992-93 7 JOO 1,019 " 1,5.33 .-aaa~ ACl'lVU'1' -IIlU.UHIc. 1000'., F'iscal Yeu: INDtISTkIAL CCl~CIAL IttSIOEh"TIAL ALL OTlfERS - 1986-$"1 $2,229 $El,On $U.20S $H,an $113,544 1987-88 $],14:5 $42,062 HO,870 SU, (.33 $9'~O90 1988-tl9 urn .$55,835 $41,334 $5,192 $112,543 UBS-9O $249 $65,373 $43,378 $3,4H .$113,47( l!iI90-91 $,70 $79~ 998 $41,862 $!J,9:35 $132,265 1991-92 $U( $82,089 $36.101 $2.f:92 $123.'55 1952-33 $2.244: .$69.923 $33,065 $2,506 .$106; 738 a!R:130:94 16 • Respectfully submitted, ~rt~ CAROL T. FEilRELL Accountinq Manager,. y~ f/-W·\·"""11v~'1 VIilGDlIA !iARlUliGTOli ~~7Jyst Director of .Finance ~i1ru~ CJIR:13D:94 17