Loading...
HomeMy WebLinkAbout0565.091- December 12, 1991 HONORABLE CITI COI!NCIL Palo Alto, C.liforni, California Clean Air Act --City Staff Testimony at Movembe~ 25. 1991 State Assembly Hearino Members af the Council: Re-port ; n Bri ef This inforDational staff report transmits written testimony tnat City of Pa:o Alto staff submitted .t • November 25, 1991 oversight hearing held by the Califor~ia Assembly Natural Resources Committee. Background On July 22, 1991, the City Council adopted comments on the Draft '91 Clean Air Plan for the San francisco B.y Aooa (CMR:349:91)_ The Council's comments 1ncluded an expr~ssion of concern about the Plan's conclusion that there is Rno practical strategy for meeting t~e State ozone standard-and urged consideration of amendments to the California Cl!in Air Act. Staff f~11ow-up on the Council's action led to an October 16~ 1991 meet~ng with Kip lipper. Chief Consultant to the Assembly Committee on Natural Resourc.s (C~R:486:91)_ The meeting with Mr. Lipper led to an in .... itatior. fer City staff to partlcipate in i1 November 25. 1991 oversight fiearing on implementati<:ln of the Cillifornia Clean Air Act (CCAA) (see .ttached 11/12/9! letter from Assemblyman Byron Sher)_ Submitted Ttstimony The attacked written submittal responds to Assemblyman Sher's November 12 letter reQuesting comments on two specific issues associated with Clean Air Act implementation plus whatever other comments ara regarded as appropriate. Conclusions highlighted in the submittal include: CMR:S6S:91 . , ,~ .. , ... . 5 •• ~. ! I o o (allforn;. is best served by relying on State-initfated ind~rect source review (ISRJ regul.ticn rather than shiftin~ t~e focus to the Federal Cl.an Air Act (FCAA). State po1icies and actions on s~me ~f the methods to improve air Quality and expand air district iSR authority are inconsistent with the policy to not infringe on local la~d Uie authority. Some infringement on local land use authority is unde:-standabie and appropriate. The State should clarify the desired regional and local roles botn in am~ndment! to the CCAA and in consideration of regional growth management legislation. The St~te should !stablfs~ a process that leads to greate~ local and suhr!gional air quality analysis expertise; !xpanded expectations for incl~sion of performance measures in local general pTan air quality e1ellK!nts; periodic monitoring of local "gene,)' performance 1 n thefr application of air qUQ1,ty mitigation melsur~s; and establishment of an independent air qU41ity research and data evaluation r~source. -Vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and average v!hicle ridership tAVR) congestion reduction objectives are appropriate policy considerations. in the allocation of transportation funds and future growth management le~1s1ation. Their overemphasis in thE CCAA serves to divert energy and resources from the central target of red~cfng air emissions. The CCAA should be amended to either remav! Gr rfduce the emphasis. on VMT and AVR targets. -le~tls of congestion and lengthening of the commute trip do not appear to be closely c~nnected r~r most portions of the Transportation system. Pcbl;c policy needs tc be based on a factual understanding of urban growt~ factors rather than more anecdoted ana1ys1s that overemphasizes the role of so~e people who, for whatever reasons, assume i long commute trip option. Tn~ CCAA sho~ld be amended to inc~rporate I coordinated series ~f actions that discourage continued use of ~lder cars and e,courlge further reductions in air pollution emiSSions from new vehicles. Rettntion of unattainable targ'E!ts. as reqliirements is. not a good publ ic policy. The CCAA sh~uld be amended to incorporate Federal ozone and carbon morlOxide standards with retent;<lf'1 of previous State standards as attainment goals. The CCAA should be amended to inc{lrporate classification definittons of claSSifications consistent with the FCAA. the differences means us.e of a less reason~ble data base ~f regions and continuation of confusion between the two CMR:565:91 p; \=r\CAf'hrrlg criteria and Retention of for e~aluation 1 aws. 12/12/91 Page 2 , , / '-.QncJysign Staff continuC!s to be aVi1hble to work with Assemblyman Sher, Mr. Lipper ilnd otners 'ntert$te~ in issues related to irnp1ementation of the California Clea~ Air Act. Staff will inform the Coun<:n if and when addit;c;r,a' actions are taken on thi 5 subjec.t. Respectfully submitted. ~. "..-/ c/' l' /' .;4-~/~"t-"/i: /i. JC:At.u. '..9 KENNETH R. SCHREIBER Director of Plinn;ng and Commu~1ty Environment ReTated C~Rs: CMR:349:91. CMR:4S6:9! Attac~nts: Il/IZ/91 letter 11/25/91 Written Testimony ~u :;) WI llAl' ZANER C1 Manager CMR:565:9! 12/12/91 p~ \car\CIo.P"I'rJ'i' Page 3 ~E""BEFcS 00r'S Aile<1 "'rOt!' aat.s C.,,_ Ja'T1ts Bn .. iIt" ,:-:~<~Ct"~\t< LkY!'r~ TI!<""~ "'oe<Jman • :-1' A ~ E CA~ 'TOl 1'110: .... F<.uelllot MI>.eG\:Jle" D.tnH~ '0<!1~ s...t!.ta'?JM C~lr~~sI". ~~iUIUrC~1'i <!!tlmmitt~~ BYRON D. SHER CHAIRMAN PO ao,~ ~.2~" ~CR"'MENTC C,l g..l249-00C· TEL~ ~ H()iIiE :910:' uS·g:)67 Mr. Ken Schreiber Director of Planning and Com=unity Environment City of P.10 Alto 250 aamil~oo avenue Palo Alto. CA 9430J De.~ Xr. 5cbre1ber: November 12, 1991 On ~onday. Novewber 2~. 1991, the Assembly Natural Resources Committee will hold an ove~sig~t hearing ~n implemeotatioo of the California Clean Air Act of 198& (CCAA). The hearing will be held in Room 4202 ~f the State Capitol and vill begin at 9:30am. The hearing is iDt~nded to provide, legislative forum for committ~e me~bers to reviey t2Y iss~es associated with implementation of the Act as yell as to provide an oppcrtunity for th~ state AIr Resources Board (ARB), air di5tricts. business and environmental inte~ests to present testimony on such issues. The purpose of this letter is to invite you to p~esent testimony At the beAring. You will be testifyi~g as part of a panel of local ~nd r€gional gov.o!rnment rep:r-esEotatives ",ho will p.esent teSt.i~Dr'_y on the-CCll {rom the l~al and regional government perspective. Unfortunately, due to the len&th of the agenda, witnes$e~ are requested to k~~~ their testicooy as brief a~ possible, not to exceed 10 minutes in lengtb.. Any testimony which ~z.c;eeds this amount may have to be deducted from other s\lb~equE;jt lOitnlE'sse<;. Pleas"'" re!'Opond to t~e ff111oTo.·in:i!: qup.5tinns i::l yol;r t~stiIlJony: 1) Bealth and Safety Code Sections ~Q716 and 40711 authorize air districts to adopt and enfo~ce indirect and areawide source control measures and requir~ districts to pl411 for, adopt and enforce transportation "mttel measures. !hese new .uthori~i~s. 60d ARB guidance in implementing these autho~ities. have been among the most contcoversial provisions of the eCA! . • ) In legislative heariogs on tbe subject of Gro~th Kana&emp.r.~, one vitness suggested that provisions of the federal Clean Air Act Amendments of 1~9Q (feAA) ",hich rl!qu.ire l!L;:tt"Jptllitar. plannir.g agencies to review de\~elopwent p!:ojects of regional significance to Ilmsure that they conform to air ~uality Objectives might function as a surrogate for the indir@ct $OuCC~ review (ISR) authority provided to air districts under the CCAA. Do you agree that the FCA! conformity provisions might function a:i a surrogate for ISR authority in the CCAA? If so, please describe how this process might work . .. ,:: ... ~~--------,.~ .... ~.--------- • t ~ I I I ./ o o bi The California Building !ndt:stry A!';sociaticn. dE"lelq::€rs and local govErt'.ments havo:' e.x.p"':essed cor,cern abow.t !5R aut~orit.y conferred u.f1on districts und~r the CCAA. Specific~llJ, they ~re ccnc@~~ed thst this autberity ~aJ be used by sir districts to usurp local land use authority in (o •• tradiction to Health And Safety Code Section I.1J716(b}. Do you. agreo;;!/disagre~ with this posit.ion? Do you have any concrete and specific slJggestions as to ho,", t.he lay might be modified to ensure t.hat local governments. n~giQnal gmlcnunem:al ag~:tcie5 sl:ch as roun::-ils of government and regional tran!:port3tiJn agencies, anc:! sir diHricts work togethet to imprDv~ eir qualitYl 4} In addition to the is-sues discussed above, are th ... re an, changes to tho:! ceAA .... hich you or yl1lir organization vOi,::ld sugg€st. tCo' iJlpr,:,wt! the la'J or its im.plementat ion? If you are able to testify at the hearing, pleaF>E conta::t Ms:. A-nne Boone on the commIttee staff on or before Wednesday, Nov~rnber 20 at (SlhJ ~45-9367. If you have any questior,s about the :c.earing.. please do r.ot r.>2sitatp. to corJtact Kip Lipper, Chief COIl;;!.l.lta.'t to the c{Jl!'iJ'!"ittl2'e, at the sane r.t:mbe:-. Thank you in advance fo~ yD~r interest in ~his i~portant hearing. Sincerely, E'~~U~ ___ Assembly Nat.ural Resoun:es CotlUtittee BDS: k: le. .. " !Hi • / CITY OF P~.lO ... ~ TO STAfF COIIIlfN1S Sua~J1T<D TO TH£ C~LJFORNI4 lEGISLAiURE A5SEMBlV KATURAL RESOURCES COMHITT(E NOVEMBER 15, ISil Kenneth R. Sehreib.r O,rectcr of Planning and Community Enyi~on~ent City of P.1. Alto • ';ii.t '!;1 The following corrments on issues re1atecl to implemeratation of the California Clean Air Act of 1988 ha~e been de~eroped in respons~ t~ an invitation to present ttst1mony at the Hovember 25, 1991 oversight hearing to bt he1d b~ the Assembly Natural Resaurces Committee. The commentary cor.tained in tnls submission is a City staff document t~at has not been re .... iewed by the Palo Alto City Council. However, on July 22, 199), the City Council ~nani~usly adopted the following recommendat1on as part of the rewie~ of the Draft '91 C1ein Air Plan ,prepired ty tf'lC! Bay Area Quality Management District: The City reiterates its continuing stro~g s~pport for the goals of the California Clean Air Act but is concerned about the consequences of the Plan's concluslon that t~ere is -no practical stratEgy for meeting the State ozone standard.-A number of possibilities ex;~t to ~odify existing standards and attainment criteria to make compliance with state standards feasible, while still matntlining serio~s efforts toward ~eeting the widely accepted goal of i~proving California's air quality+ Therefore, the City urg~s the District to adopt a policy of working ~1th legisl ators a~d Air Resources Board staff to promptly consider amendments to the State's attainment criteria standards 3nd the Californfa C1ean Air Act. RESPONSE TO QUESTIONS IN NOVEMBER 12, 1951 LETTER FROM ASSEMBLYMAN BYRON SHER. la) 00 you agree that the FCAA conformity provisions ~i9ht function as a surrogate for indirect s~urce review (lSR) authority in the CCAA1 Discussion O~r understinding of the FCAA is that rSR is a potential ictivit1 under reQu;rtd implementation plans. Tnf FCAA does not appear to be as clearly worded regarding i1uthorit~ for ISR is the eCAP.. To the extent that more indirect and ambi9uouS authority in the law and greater reliance on administrative rules ~akes 10ca1, regional and Stat! plans and policies more diffi:ult to formulate, use of the fCAA is not a desirable surrogate for State ISR authority. Coocl usion California is best se~ved by relying on State-initiat€d ISR regulation rath.r than shifting the f~cus to the FCAA. 1b) Do jlOIJ agree/disagree with t~e concern that ISR authority given to air districts by the (CAA may usurp loca~ land use authority? Do you have any concrete and specific suggestions as to how the law mig~t be modified to ensure that local governments, regiona1 governmental agencfes, and ai. districts 'Work. together to improve air quality? p:\bICCAA Page 2 o Qilmsion City staff agrees that the CCAA is mO~lng regfonal air dist,icts toward i greater regionai growtn management ro7e. However, the CCAA is ir,ternally inconsistent regarding the exercise of regional air distr-lct ] and use powers. The dlrection for .air dhtrict involver:'lent in gro\lriitn ll1anagement CQ"mes fram three CCAA requirements. First, Section 40910 states that air districts s~al1 ·focus particular attention O~ reducing tne emissions frorn tra~sportation and areawide emission sources~· Second~ for serious nonattainment areas, the Act requires the district to exercise every reasonable co~tro' procedure to clEan tne air. Third, the CCAA requires distritts to adopt, implement and enforce transportation control measures (TCHs). According to the Say Area 1991 Clean Air Pl.n (page 6), "reasonably available-TCMs identified by the California Air Resources Board (ARB) in February 1990 t include -employer-based trip reduction rulp.s, trip-reduction rules fer ether s~urces that attract ~ehicle trips, ~anagernent of parking supply and pricing. regional high occupancy vehicle (HI)V) systems phns, c~mprehensi~€ trinsit improvement fOf bus and rail, land de~elQpment pelici€~ that support reductions in vehicle tr~ps, and developlTlent pollcies to strengthen on-site transit access for new and existing development.~ \lhne the above supports air district i7woh'ement in local growt~ manage~ent~ the CCA~ also contains the provision that WNething in this section constitutes an infringement on the existing authority of counties and cities to plan or contrel lan~ use~ and nothing in this sacticn provides or transfers new authority over such Tand use to a district." (Section 40716(0).) T~e CCAA shDuld be amended to resol,. this internal incor.sistency. To the extent that the State's int~nt in adopting the CCAA was to substantia,11y irr.prC1ie air quality in metropolitin area$ at a faster pace than previously anticipate~, the growth ~anagement role of air districts is Togi(al. Put anot~er way, State objecthes suc~ as t1:gher average vehicle ridership (AVR) and slower increase in veh1cle mi1es trave1ed (VMT) logically trans?;'te into a stronger regional regulatory role that includes. to an undefined degree. region31 overs;te of local land use decisions. A key issue is the appropriateness of the 10cal air district's assumption of i stronger land use role. Single purp~se regulatory agencies are eften not eGui~ped in attitude or exp£rtise to address complex multi-faceted issues such as regulation of land use and the 1and use-transportation interrace. To further clarify the role of air district involvement, City stdff recommend that State guidance be gi~en to strongly encourage air districts to delegate land use-related functions to local and p.\ks\CC..v. Page 3 , • I ., . "." subr!910ntl a~encfes along w~th r~qYiremer.ts for consultation with and appro~IT of certain actions by other regional agencies that represent either r£l~ted si~91e f~nct,o~ IreiS (e.9., transportation) or are genenl purpose counci1s of government. r"r local agt!nc1es to asSIJme major responsibility for identification and mitigation of air quality iss~es associate~ with indirect sources through analysis of either general lar.d use plans and/or spe~ific resid!ntiJl and nonresidential de~elopment, a number of fssues need to be addressed. These issues include: for 1II0st areas. the sum total of d~¥elopment consists primarily of lIlany small and rn!lderate size projects and i ff~ larger ptcjects. Focusing only on 1 arge projects may mean that the bul k of development is not addressed_ Very few subregional ~r individual jurisdiction agencies have iir <lua11ty-oriented staff expertise or the flexibl1ity/resourcEs to train or hire substantia' expertl~e without negatively 1mpatting the resourtes tnat ire ava1laole for ~th€r and, from the local perspective, higher priority work. Related to the tbovf! item. air quality analysis has the reputation of being technically tomp1e~ .nd relati~ely esoteric work reqUiring specific technical and computer model~ng training. For the loca1 p1ann~r, tnere does not appear to be easily usable tethnical information for calculation pos;ti~e and negativ~ 'mpacts" For it least the Bay AT!;. there is little confiden~e it tne Tocal level that existing air ~uality computer models accurately reflect the rea' world. Th~ models appear to generate ·super worst case­ results t~at, upon investigatfon t have often proved to be unbelievable~ Further, failure to use these models in EIRs trigger$ critica1 fIR re .. ';ew coments fro!!': tr.e aii district that need to be respon~ed to in the Fin;) EI~_ l,ocal stiff and elected deci~ion makers have internalized for many years the argument that air quality issues ar~ eSSEntially multi­ jurisdictional in nat~re and appropriately the cantern ~f a regional agency. There is seldom a sense that modifying one particular Genera1 Plan amend~e~t or specific develcpme~t will impact o\lerall air quality_ This is in contnst to anotner technically complex area--traffic eng~~e!ring. For traffic~ nearly everyone in tne decislon-making process f~els comfortable evaluating the impacts of a project on tne triffic conditions near the sHe. Because of the identifi,d (.nd probab1y oth.r) prob1ems, getting subregional or-individual jurisdic.tion agencie-s to undertake effective air quality ana1ysls Cif1d air Quality-re1ated regulation of General PTans p:\b\cCAA Page 4 • \ .. "---_ .... __ .. _--.. --'.-._ .. ------.. ,.,.-.:.......----,-~--- o and dev!lopment projects will be difficult. Significant St~te ARB and ,:"egional reSOUTC~S w·~n halJe t" be allocated to ... ark .... it~ and train Tocal staff and C:ecision makers. At He same time, state and regional afr district staff resources are suspect for several reason~ including: A de:s.1re to prot!ct ex1stir1g rnodeh Il'ld dil,ta tnat Is often unrealistically worst case; Past demonstration of re1atively little understanding of hu~ local decision making wcrks; Past difficultiEs in cOmlTl'Jnfcatfng information in ill nonjargon understandable manner; and An emot1onai attacnment to the issue the:t works against cOllll1unica.tion. Shffting responsibility to subregional or individual jurisdiction agencies will n~ed to be I gradual pro~ess starti~g ~itM relatively simple local actions. and e .. olving into more com'pTex analys.;s and mitfgation txpectations. Key steps could incl~de: Establ\shin; development mitigation expectations, {e.g., transportation demand management ordinances, site development standards suc~ as bus loading areas and pedestrian and bicyc1e paths} and requiring l~cal ag~ncies to ide~tify implementation strategles as part of their general plan. Establishing and implementing more detailed air quality elements in the local general plan and creating some significant local conseQuer.ce for failure to meet ado.ption deadlines as well as failure to apply basic development conditions of approval; Establishing periodiC performance/monitarlng reports for imp1ementatio;, of the air quality element, including development ~itigat;on expectations (per~aps associated with tne a~nual monitoring report required for t~e local congestion management agen;:y) ; fstabllshlng an independent air qua1it~ research and data !valuation resource (perhaps patterned after the Uni~ers;ty of California's Institute of Transportation Studies); and Finally, with ~uch technical ~ork and subregional and regional agencies that people hav~ confidence in, it may be possib1e to establish air qual;t~ targets and tradeoffs between different types nf development and even between jurisdictions coordinated through a su~regional gre~th management precess. Page 5 • t E ~ • t, tl rl ,. :1 ;'l I i t ! I I I I I I I I II 2.) Realistitally, imple~ntat1on of the above steps wou1d take it least five and probably clo~er to eight to ten ye~rs. c.onclysion State polieie; In~ actions 0" some of the meth~ds to improve air quality and expand' air district lSP. authorit.,Y are fr.c.onsistent wiV. t~e policy to not infringe or, iocal land use authority. Some infringement on local land use aut~ority is understandable and ipprcpriate~ The State s~ou1d clarify the desired regional and local roles botn in ~mendments to the CCAA and in consideration of regior.!l growth management legislation. Tne St.t. should .st.bTi,h a process that T •• ds to greater Toc.T and subregional air quality analysis expertise; expanded expectations for inclusion ~f perform~nce measures in local general plan iir quality e'em~ntsj periodic ~onito~ing of 10Cil agency performance in their application of air Qu!lity mitigition measures; and establishment of an indep~ndent iir quality ·research and data evaluation resourcE'. Ar! there any other changes to the CCAA which you would suggest to i~roye the law or its implementation? The degree of emphasiS fn the California Clean Air Act on the reduction of traffic congestion Is an inappropriite mixing of .ir quality and trafffc congestion pol iti tlbject 1)1H. Pi gussfon The (CAA places i major emphasis or. substantially reducing the rate of increase in vehicle trips ind vehicle miles traveled (VHT) and on achieving Significantly increased average vehicle r!dership (AVR) dUfing the commute period. Ther! is little evidence that Californians are willing to give up t~ejr car if the tradeoff is a substantially longer cOfTl7lute time and les,s convenhnce. Successful efforts to reduce vehicle use for ~ommuting (~ich accounts for approximately 25 percent of the total vehicle trips and 40 perc~nt of the v!r.icle miles traveled in th~ Say P.rea) will require a corr.bination of very large capital outlays, substantial regulatory programs focusing especially on employers, and probably, for the gEneral public, unacceptable increases in the financial cost of commutin9· The adopted regional Clean Air Plar. for the Bay Area concludes tnat for regions classified as severe the performance stand,arc! of achielJing no net increase in vehicle emissions after 1997 will be met. AchielJement will come as a result of tighter emission controls and the natural replacement of old~r vehicles. AlSO, the Bay Area 1991 Clean Air Plan indicates that the relative (percent of emission reductions) :nd actual {number of tons per day) effectiveness uf transportation control measures decreases from 1997 to 2000. This decreased effectiveness is attributed, by BAAQMD staff, to the removal of older ve~icles from tnt ,'.\hICCAA P.ge 6 I I f o o road. If additiona1 afr qu~lity improvements can be achieved by strategies that focus on faster remov;;.l of older car's from the road, cTtar.er n~w cars and cleaner burning fuels, why focus a maj.r part of the CCAA political (and financial) implementation effort on·slowing th~ rate Qf increase in VMT and trips and increasing AVR? r=J.JI.1iQ!l VHT and AVR congestion reduct!on objectives are appropriate policy conSiderations in the allocatiof. of transportation funds and future growth management 1egislation. Their overemphasis in the CCAA serves to divert energy aMd reiources from the central target of reducing air emissions. The CCAA sholJld be itllended to eitner remo .... e or reduce the empha.i. on VMT and AVR target •. 2b) The vehicle trip and vehic1e mi1es traveled reduction standards in the CCAA are inconsistent with commutE behav;or~ changing commute patterns and changes in ncncommute trips. Piscussion Contrar~ to con~ent)onal ~isdom, the distance and length of the average c(lmmute trip is decreasing. Research en cOTTVrlute trip time for the twenty largest metropolitan areas in the U.S., including los Ang~1es, San Francisco and San Diego, shows tnat average commute time declined frcm 19Be to 1985 for eighteen of the twenty areas (LA -23.7 to 22.1 minutes, SF -23.1 to 21.3 minutes, ~D . 20.3 to 19.5 minutesJ. (See attache-d Jour:nal_~f tne American Piiinning Association, Autumri, 1991, page. 416·420)_ The April I991 Dc.ft Clean Air Plan for the Say Area concludes that ·Contrar) to public perceptions, the lengt~ of most trips is decreasing. Ov~r the next twenty years, the aver6ge trip will be 9 percent shorter, while the length of the home to work trip will decrease by II percent.-(See attached page 56 of Draft Bay Area r9J C1ean Air Plan) The ex~1anatic:'l for the cOrrlTlute data and projections primarl1y in .... olves the dispersal of jobs a"way from traditional job centers. Effectively, job and household Tocatfon and relocation decisions are shortening commute trips. The development of more scattEred retail, ser .... ice commerc;ll, office and entertair,ment locations results. in decreasing nnncommute trip length. Numerous. studies have shown that diversion of average and short .... ~hicie trips to alternative transportation modes is far more diffic~lt than diversion of long commute trips. The recent and projected changes in commute and noncommute trips and re1ated driver behavior run contrary to the Ce'A'. AVR and VMT objecti"" Page 7 • • Concl ysi9n levels of conga-stion and lengthening of the commute trip dO.",<:It appear t~ be closely connected fer most portions of tn~ Transportation syste~. Pub1ic ~olicy needs to be based on a factual understanding of ~rban growth factors rather than more anecdcted inilysis tnat overemphasizes the role of some peopie ~ho, for whatever reasons, assume a long tommute trip option. 2c) He Stlte should more effectively influence people to use less polh.ting vehicles. Discuss.iQ.n Reducing the average pollution per vehicles has t~c compor.ents; removing older ~ehicles and decreasing the pJllut10n of new vehicles. Regardin~ older vehicles, d~ta prepared by UNOCAL and the California Air P.esourc~s Board for I Southern Californii pre-1971 vehicle removal program is impressive. ine average pre-1S71 vehicle was found to discharge 9~ times the hydrocarbons, 56 times the carbon monoxide and 11 times the nitrogen oxide of a 1990 vehicle. The 8,400 cars remo~ed from operitfon in the trial program gen~rated as much pollution as 150,000 new cars. Th~ 8,400 YEhicles were ~ought for S700 each in a purelJ voluntary slle program. A rece~t State Senate Office of Research st~dy concluded that 12 percent of California's cars treat! 75 percent of the auto-related pollution and 7 p~rc!nt of the cars treate SO percent of the pollution. An October 16, 1991 memo from MTC staff to the Bay Area TCM Task For,. downplayed the potentia' value of prog~ams t<:l buy back older cars not1ng that the State ARB st.ff ev.luation of the South Coast UNOCAl program f~und it "to be marginally cost-effec.Uve sinc~ it 'Would provide onl, iI short-term benefit as older vehicles wouid eventually be retired on tneir own.1 City staff's. reaction ti) a. bUjl-bac.~ program is that there are numerous econan~ic r~ason~ for c~ntfnued use of older cars and "eventually" might be a Tcng enough time period to warrant a buy-back. program. While new vehicles are much cleaner than older v~hicles, some vehicles are less polluting than others and in the future, vehicles ca~ be even less polluting through wehicle and/or fuel ~~dif1cation5, Consideration should be given to using State financial mechanisms to encourage use of lower polluting vehicles. Possible mechanisms include: Mcdifyfng the annual ~ehicle registration system to tie the vehicle fe~ to the le~el of pollution; Page 8 ~ '~ , , 1 .1 , 1 j I Zd) ~"-"-.--" ~ ___ ~&! e o o Modi r~ing the sales tax to give an advantage to cl eaner \'ehicl·~s and discourage purthase of high pollutin~ v~hicl~s; and [stab11shir.g a pollution surcharge based o~ the 1evel~of po)lution created by the car and the annual 'Ili 1 es. driven. Conl.1 usia" Tht CCAA should be amended to inco~porate I coordinated series ~f Cldions that discourage continued us~ ~f older cars and er1caurage further reductions in air pollution emissions from r'lew ... ·ehicles. The gap between Federal and State ozone and carbon monoxide standards should become an attainme~t 90a1 rather than an attainment teQuirement. Piscuaion lhe tCAA appears to create i situatfon wnere California~s metropolitan areas w"il1 Le unable to meet ozone afid' possibly carbon monoxid'e standards. In the Bay Area. compliance ~;tn State carbon monoxide standards is projected as well as compliance with Federal ozone standards. However. cDmpliance wlth State Clone standards is predicted to be unattainable within at least the next 10 year5~ Since the Bay Area also car.no~ reduce ozone precursors by 5 percent per year. the r~gion must comply with Section 40914(bJ (2) which requires adoption ~f ~ C1ean A1r Plan t~at includes -every feaslble measure an~ in expeditious adopti~n schedule,-The CCAA does not define -feaSible-and "e.xpedi tieus.· With California's more sever2 ozone standards. the 1ike1ihoDd of litigation related to the inability to meet the standard and the meaning of ·feasible-and ~expedit\ous· is reasonably high. Amendment of the CCAA to establish the gap bet.een the Federal and State standards 15 a goal rather than a standard ~ay reduce the possibility of divisive an~ SUCCEs$ful litigation. ({lnc1 usicn Retention of unattainable targets as requirements is not a good public pal icy. The {eM should be amended to incorporate re~eral ozone and carbon monoxide standards ... ,.ith retention of previous State standard'S as attainment 90a15. 2e) The State's classifl~~tion criteria for air di~trict5 should be made consistent 'Wit'" the Fede,'al dassHiciLtion system. Page 9 • Piscyssion Tw'O rehted issues are present in this conclusion. First, what criterh should be used to clos$lfy d1stricts? Second. should the dffinit10n of cluslfication (i.e., moderate, serious, sallera) be the same? At ttle present t'~, the CCAA is substantially different from the federal Clean Air Act for both issues. tlJljjfjcation Criteria: The (CAA classified air distr1tts according tc their esti~ated attainment date based on air Quality ~odel;ng studies. The Federil law uses -deSign vilues-based on data 'llailable as of Oecember 31, '99). The design vllues are based an actual measurements versus the mode1ing studies used by the St.t •. City staff ~aes not have a high regard for afr q~a'ity models conclud,~g that they ofte~ are excessively oriented t~ ~orst case scenarios and overstate act~al con~itians. Changing the CCAA to be tonsistent wtth Federal law wo~ld have tne advantag~s of ~sin9 a more reasonable data base for plar.~ing l"d redUce confusion between the two laws. Definition of Cl,ss1fjcat1cns: As noted above, the CCAA and Federil law ~lass1fy air districts as hd~ing mode~ate, serious and seyere condition.. (Note; The FCAA has two ~r. cl.ssifi,.tions.) The two claSSification systems are inconsistent. Bringing Cilffornia iaw into conformity with Feder.l law is appropri.te. Conversion of the gap between federal la~ and the more restrictive CCAA attainment standards into a goal rither than a requirement ""ould facllitaf:e confonna1'ltf of t~e classification crit~ria and definitions. Cgn,lysioIJ The CCAA should be amended to incorporate classification criterii and definitions of ~lassificitions consistent with the fCAA. Retention of the differences means use of a less reasonable data base for evaluation of regions and continuation of confusion b~tween the t~o laws. Attachments: -The Commuting Paradox -Ellide~ce from the Top T~enty,· Journal of the America~ Planning ASSQciitioD 1 ,:IbICCAA Autumn 1991. pages 41£ tc 420 Dr.ft 8ay Are. 'II Cle.n A1r Plan. April 1991. pages 56 to 57 -_.----. Page 10 • I j ! IARTICLESj The Commuting Paradox Evidence from the Top Twenty Peter Gordon. Ha::TY \V. Richardson. and Myung.)in fun • A comparison of auto commuting trip durations (rom the J98S American HOllSin,SlJrvc,)' ro data from [he! 930 census for the [went)' targMI mel4 mpolilsn areas SLlggests that during the study period ncra,e trip times eIther fel! bjl a st.alis­ ticalJ)' significant amount or remained the same. A paradox may ellist in (he widespread reports of congesrion in spite of stable average trip du­ rations. Perhaps avcrage commute times are contained by Ihe location adJustments that households and businesses make. Perbaps there is no PBrilidolt. location adjustments would not ~.made were if not (or the perception of conges­ tion. Cordo:l and Ricnard§or. are on lh~ racuil)' orrhe School of Urban and Regivr.a: Plannr!lE; al the Unh'ersily of Southern Carirornia lun is. a doctors' student in Ihe school. /oumaf o{ ('~ A "Icrjct::ln Plt:mlling ..... ssr>cialion. Vol 57. N~ -4, Autumn 199 L C ,A.merican Plan I'ling As~o.::ia rior., eh r­ caCo,ll Ca~uttl empiricl~~, m:-ci'la '"ttenlio~ .. anC per.OriJ: ,)r-~er­ \'ltfC'" ali !.ug~esl I!-.;J: tr;.IJjc cong-esllcr MD5 b-:en s!:::ng ...... orse:n re-:-enl y~a~l. Yet .he '.ltion ..... ide ?e~n",1 Trani­ por't.ation Stud) C\P1'.5) ~h:lws :ha: Ir(.~~ ~h21\'i')r did n,,[ relleC1 thi.5 Irena (Goro:l),",. I<umar. and Richad,or" 198'}iI,~ 1" par't',ct.:olar, an} change .. 'In .... o;-k u;p lim~~ ilr>': dJ~:ln.c~s belwe~n 1977 and 19S::; we:":' modes, and gene1-all_, tn~ig­ njfi:::anL T~p ~pc-ed~ changed h~rdl)' al a:1. and in bel im­ P~y(:'J' !8mewha: duririg lhe p:a:.:..s ber ..... !en 1917 a;-;c 1 983 The stabi:i!) or~l:ghr dedme Lr; commuting time£ n:'iee.d an inc.re4~ in slJouro-lo-suburb commufrng ;:;nd Ihe g'!r­ era!]y raster ~peed! o( sUt,uman trop,e] The 198> Amoerical'1 Housing Sur~'e'\' (.s.HS) d:ll~ re· cent]} became <lv/dabioe-. ofioe~~r::g the -po~!ibilll.\ of '"e­ t'!:s.:ir>~ ~h=~e nndings w;!h an inde~o::ndenl d:l;t<! SOLlrce The J~HS da:a:;,.re lWO ~eA~ ne ..... er .ban ,r,e :'\'f'TS. 1h::\ indlJd~ !UbSI3n1iaJ iiJ.ormat~on aboul commu~inr;: ~\'er, though their main iOCL'.5 is housing. anj lhey are av~:bbl~ kr ind"I\·idt,; .. ~ dries. MOr.;'o\"er.lhe ct'mmutl",g QUC5tIOr.£ "ked in :98; ... ·ere a!mos.~ identic .. ! 10 lhost:' iJ~~t:'d it" lhl: l 9gQ c~nsus, permi\\:ng a a,.re':l -;o~PJr:son" Thi! orTers An ::"lPPOrllJnil)' 10 update the arJ.linis unta !~e re­ .5"U:u-or the r.e::d ~PTS survey (origin"ll} planned for 1989 but not carTled oU! until )990 to 199!) and the 199C: census become u8iJable, probiJbiy in ! 992. ,"'\~t~ough the 1985 AHS data are 3\ailable for 5eventv-four Met­ ropoiill1"1 S~at~slic:!r .1..rt"3S, lh~ ana~~~is here is reSl.ric~ed 10 tn(' lw~nty largest-lhoe Top Twe:-!t}'. This restriction put.!. to res:: any doubts abou: $ample .5jze [the siJmpi-e or auto commUler~ fOlnged f:-Ntl 244 rC5pondel'1t.5 tn ?In­ burgh La 1.376 m Les ~I''.§'e''es). <:!nd!! is "T.O:-: .::?"r~~:latc for :r,e cO"£I:'->:IO,' ;.n~fysrs beciJuse righli}' or "'rongl~. congestion problems a~ pereelved to be panic..:!.o.rr,.-se- \'ere in lhe I.i!l"ger cities_ . To previe",' lhe c:on::iuSlon~ of Lh~ anail-si$. nOI onl_, ar~ tht:' ea;-fier:r\PTS !im:iings confirmed, the) are re'tn­ rurced In a siLab!c prOp0!'1fOt"l orl~e Tc.';:,T"\O.~nl-" ,"tS_!l_s, work trip travel time. [rU bet'""'cen J"980 3nd 198:5 bY a s:.at:slic<:]'} 5ignific.i!m amour.t, and in no case d;d w~~k tr;p lime.') "Ir'cre.:ne signl!iC:3:1ti;;" 1>.fo~~(".yef, cornml.:ling ti.C1C" :end!'d 10 be shoner in cilies cxperie!'cj;)E ra;::oid groll;'.h "nd or ...... ith 10'010 -d:-n;ilv struC:lJ~es These r('s~I",s sugge.1 a .:ommul'1g pa:old'o;: Traffie conges:jon rl"!.<l' be gelling prQgressi\'e!~ wone, ~'el ;lVer;Jge commutir's times lor the {1 .. 'erwhelmi~gll domin3nl £lLl"LO commuter ar~ either rem,,:ning constant Or becom;ng shorler_ Thi.! P";lI';idOll is perhaps expi.s·lned b; ('IC c.:lpacl!}' ofind'rl'ld­ l,,;;lls and rmm to 3dluSI ra:;on.:lll..l' to potcnu.o.lh iJ.:hers.: ch~nge~ In physical and eronomic concilr:Jons-so as 10 kerp comr.luti .. g limes .... ·;I"-in Il)I.:;I·Jble limil~. 1>.loreo ,'er, f.,;r:},er aCJlJstm.::r.ts :Ire pus~ibJe so '},;)t an\' ful,,~e de­ ler:D .... tlor; in lr"Jlir con'be"s'.io:'l "'tfl '':"Jduce-a ;:omp1:n­ ~:.I1:ng responu • clin,;l1iwn 10 round ofT 10 thl:: nl::aresl five Tmn~t~s, How, e'll::r, this should not :iistoot the: r~s\.l!:s u:n:~ss Iher: are changing biase~ Oller Ijn:1:: in the direc'lon or roun.:!i:'i~ up or down, and th~r~ :5 neilner e",idL'nce nor theory 1-' suppOrt such biases. \V~} rocus on tri~ times rathl::r lhar. on trip iengt!'ts and .,·e:rage-traver spuds? The: maj"r reason 1s Iholt tri!" time is the ... !!riabl~ that most innuen.::'!s travel beh;J~'ior. Mn:-cover, trip length a;,d spf:ed cannOl be compar~d for 11380 And 1985, aHho'.:gh ine NP'TS dOilll pem"i! com­ pc:->sons lxtween 1977 and 1 '18:3 by place or residence (central city or s~burb) as ..... ,c:lI as by .c-!ry-s:ze class. peak or Off-PE.u.k. l.n!,·el tin-,e, and trip p'Urpo~e. The~e compar­ isons s.how that won: trip ~~ed~ incT'Ca~ed in a1l'!105t a\l cit)'4size cla5..'ies for both centra) city and ~:Jburban reSk­ de'Ots. The only exception to this g~neranzJ.lion i~ Ihe stower speeds or ol!-pea~: work trips for s'-,burban rt"s.i4 dems {Cor;:!()f'" Ku1'l'oar, and R~chanhcn 19S9a, 1'3ble «j, which a!'t probably explained b)' the rapid gro ..... ,th in no!'worl.: trips (Gordor, K\.Im.ar, and Ric:hilfdson ,9S!!a. Table:; 2 and 5) and' b)' !Ill· pre~'alenl negre;:1 or t:3ns­ portation <;~stem managernl!:1t (fS\tj measu.res in otr­ pe~k periods. Wo:-k trip lenglhs. e;(ce-pl for d"w"nloW~­ oriemed commuler1 . .!n" ~hcrter for suburban :hJl": for centra: lilY resident.~;, and thi .. L--cnd can be ex,pcrted to continu.e as morc and mo!"t jobs shift ,0 lh-: suburb~. Avc: ... ge trip ~ng.hs. declined, a far! wh'.)!i) erln$isten1 ...... ith the hYPolhesis. $U~g~sl~d in lhis j:'aper. Wb .. U$e means ralher lhan mediar.s? (Ali our p .. pen; using:".'PTS d.na looked at botl; means .:md mecii.:lns: both :!>tt~ of ~sulu were mu.!ua!!\! comistenl However. for this res.e3rch i1 is ... ery i'tlportanr to rei)' on rrl~.:ms..J First. the me:::r: !'tf!ects Iht nt, c\.I:come or a great m.m.\" in­ Olvid\.l<li commuting deCisions in each I:lrge Cll)' and ~s !J01 a sta!i~tic.o.l ani fact. Secord. med·!.;); rCportmg of the c:ongeslion efTec::!> oj mel~pol;tan growth l-:-nd~ t.) rc::l} hea"'i!)' on thoe experiences or ou.tlier,., tMose ... ·ho com­ rr:u:e up 10 1hree hours. 3 da)'. For example. 3 ~cent M ..... S rtpctt proliled a Los Ang~les PDlice Depa:11r>ent lieutenant who commuled f:lur and one-~alr hours J d:!, from lr:e mo.mtain re .. on or L3ke A:;o",'he.o.~ 1n delll.,:-,:' town. Buried deep in the amcle .... .::s Ihe rae, li''lt he i!"l(enJ.~d to re:ire \r; fot.:r ',cars' (,me ancr that he had bought hi! m01..1!1:a!n home -in Jr,ti.::ip':l1ior. of ~e~ir~men!! Obviously. !ouch o-;JtJ;ers .lfieCI meOln commu1ins times. But )e~j ,oc"W's .... onh.\", art Ihe aClicm of 1f1e m{)de~( pro­ pOr!~onj cJ commuler!i who c.J.ch year ch.1nge residene~ and/or work place-to avoid congestion ane reduce :neir commuting limes., These uns .. ng heroes of melropolilan tra~'e: beh<l ... ior expl:lin wh) comm\.lcing time! in the largest cilies I"Cm:lll'l s!:lbre Ot dedine dcspice impre5- si(1r,I$lk. bOJt probilbl.\"' reliable. e"ider,::-e of ;n.:reJ,ing cor.ge~lion illong p:!:-tiCllr,,~ highw".'" ~gme;'.ts. Tr.is p'"-' per does not charlenge the Mypc:he~;~ or ill'.:re;,slng congeslio1"1 per ~nil of ro,"-d c:lpll.::ir.!i_ on!) thc "~~:';l1lplio .. tha~ lhi~ ine~"lIably re5'Ult~ in h',gher a'c:r"ge commuting limes. Tnis ,;;mJ!ys.i5 or eO:'T'1muling beha~'ior ~n Ih~ Top T ..... Ct"Hy is res-tricled 10 l"C~pondel':r!o In Ihe .;:ore r"lher rhan Ihe p~ripher .. l counties or mtlropoii1a:1 regiofls becaus~ of the desire to dis~ingL.Jj~h be~ ...... ecr. cen:1 al ei:y I!n.:! ')<J~­ urb:.:-, re'ldent~, TI1~ cot.cej:,l or "centr",: ci:}" loses it~ true me.u.ning in a s~burb!!n CO\.in1y. {In .... ';..a1 se:!~e-I~ AI'_olhe;m in Or.o.ng<= COtJnlY a centr"a~ci:y?) Ho· ... el eor, the POpulO!rkl"ln gro .... th da~2 in Tabk I f1!:ie~ to the broade~ metrOpohr3n regIon 10 g:~'e a mere reLable ii!djc.ator or :net~potj(.!n eC'onom~c ~ri')~afl,e, The5e growth ra~es .sugges: a clear disfin';:liotl ber ..... een slil.b"nant popuial;ol. growth in the t"o:-!ncas: and ~\r,dwest and more b~oyanl g0wth in the v" .. esl ilnd the SOUdi. MinneapoJj~ is tlie or I)' C,.c~p:iDn :0 lh;~ g~r,eralil':'~ion. T2blo: 1 a,rso com~u~s .automobile commuting tlmes for ~uburb.u.n anc cem~ai <;i;,. ro:side:nl~. Be:ca1.l5e the C2t2 r!!fer to a~·e~aFC~, i1 rr;:gr:t-be expec1ed thaI suburban commuting tim~s .... 'ould oe rnuc~ longer because of the innue~ce of out~i er-s; th e longes.: COr:1rnutes are fro rr. st.-b· urban IQcat:,OM tc the Cf;n~r1i: (.:ty in generz,\ and to. downtown in particula •. Al:hough Ihi~ e)Cp-:ct1l1icn or longer suburbar. commutes i~ confirmed, tnere are rnsjor quJii:ica1Ion.5. 171 fi~'e C';He~. ~u~w:-oaTl commullr:g times are shorter. and in eight C;;"CI. they are ks.s than or eq,uat to 15 perc~r;: longer.)tJ or~::-on~ ca~e (Pll:~brg~) is the :rave~ time ciiiT~renee e>::trt:TIe (almo~l50 percent longer). As pCintt'd ou! by Plsa:-sk~ (1987), suburb·lo-suburb comm~·.es are the m:),l r;apidlj' gro\l>';ng calegor)" e.nc these commu~es offe~ C'ppor-:u"i:~e~ for trip eeor-emie .. (vi~ changes in rt:sideT'rta] and,'N ..... 'Qrk piar,;e 10c.o.lior.) thJ.t s\.Ibsta:-lli,,:1y ,,[seT Lhc much lor;g'!r raCJa: corr.rnule~ froJ'i. l!'le ~uburb5 to the cen:~al Ci1)' The Commuting Paradox The mOSI impor.;ant que~lion is; What hOlppened 10 !;:ommuling rimes b)' au:amac-ile bet ..... ~en 198C .mc 19.85' Ir traITIC congestfon is i:-,deed gelling worse . .and if the proportions iJ'l the ..... ark trip or:gln-de~linilrion m.o.1ri~ re­ main t~e ~Jn':e. then ine'.itJbl\' r~a"e: times fnLlSI become longu. Bl.Il jai<l fDt lhe Tep '(wen~)' in Table 1 ,ho''''' tha~ in t:ighleen eaoe~ cOr:1:rl:.J:ir.g times became !hc;rr&!~. In ninc orthe:.e rJ~e; lh~ reol.Jc1i'm W;l~ s:a~is:~c~rh .. s::;:rJi:+ iC<li1: a~ the 0,01 le'o'tl, in SlX coues i1 ..... a'i ~:gnif,ca~: a1 the D OS; te"t.1. and. i;\ G:1l> .. ',hre'! c.~5J,!S "",a~ the C:e,,::llr.e n:lltstical1) ~mig:lin.;;a~.1. [:1 th-: 1\10'0 rase5 .,.,h~rt ':-ilyel timJ:'5 1cngth~ned a tltll~ (Dallas and Phoe:1i>:). the in­ c~ea~e .... '.a~ SI31is:jcarr~, imigrdi.;:anl. The .!·.'-er.;Jge s .. ving (\In .... ·eig~teJ) ..... as ~bou: t'l/o'Q l1.inu1e5. in B perc em dc+ cline rrom th~ l 9S0 meal: com mULe: ·In the r"p T ..... 'enty cllies How can th~ cOI':'Hl"ul:ng pJrJdo,\ of more ,-,ngestlor, bu\ shQrter cDm~ll~ir1g Ilr:lCS be e.\p~.o.llled? One pOS5~­ bilitj' i~ th3t t.f1e p;tr;);do~ ~~ wrong; in other word~. Ihat Ihere 'I/o as no '''''C:>r!.e:1ing ClrCOn~~~t,or. Indeed t:omrnuHrs mJy pcrt:ei.'e cong~slion as being wo~s.e lh;rn il i5. :-c­ meltlberin~ Ine re:;);r:~'el~' infr~qu(;"'.: deiJy~ more than. Ihe nonnOl~, ,wr.e,'e:-.lfu! Inps_ ').'et the-hyporhe:~',. oihlgher traffIC O.:n~,r,,~ arong P;lrl.c1;[ilr ro~;e~-on.: pO$~ible mea~u.t~ or ,,(,:lg::~:IOll __ <l~ pro;'Jr..!~ va~.d in mar!l in Sl,mecs (H.l-'k.~ JrI:! Lo:-nJ~ ]991).-' :(c,r .... O!; ~)lC efl'e-n oJ -"","" " ........... ' .. 711iii11ll. ". " - ----PETER GORDe." HARRY W. r' RKHAIWSOI'. AND •. :'UNG·IIN IVI' TABLE r: Population growth and rommlJlin,g times!n 20 largest U.S. metrop~i __ t_~ ___ ~r~ ... =' __ _ ----------- ";.r<OI"'ICt>tOi! .;omm1J1'r19 l..me ...... """"'''''' s....t>Jrtl .. :'1/CI!<·llr ..... tm'l'lt ptowm ... Ie Clt)'ilCII011F'ne SI~."rtCa~ ~1 ~) 198C-!l5 -'''''' , .. '0<"""" " C»apo " s.o'-= 1.' .-03 0.,,",, -0.7 .... ~, " 0 .... ,. WaYw>gI~. DC " ~-~ 3.0 ...... 1.' """"'"" -,. .",.,. ,. S, !....DvIs " So",. :,4 ...........,.. 1.' "" 0,..0 , .. -"""" os """...." -0 , Pnooo. .. • ~~br"':n.dO CII< • .,r1t:ot1'1,....,. C ~~CU)1~ r.~,\ .. ·Co:lS ..... ., 19;9'5 o !IS , ,0 7 1.01 , .. 0,90 1 16 '" , " 'l.2'J '" 1.19 '91 'Os '_ll "'1 120 12< ", '" ". ,'8(; 1995 "'I't!i'~e ('t· .... IIlve) 2!! 1 2!;, -Ulr'- 23.7 2 ... 1 -403" ,.. :::39 -2u' '" '" -214' '" ". -31S" ", '" -6 1'· '" ". ., ro' 2'z 6 ", , " ". 25.0 -3 21~ '" 2<, -2 .. e· 22.9 "S -:! 10" 22,1 '" ·3'" '" '" -, ,s,. 2:<.6 ,0> -2 2'~ 2:< Q 20' -1.70" 1!J.6 '" -37S- '" '" -0 es 2':',7 2_G -01a '" 2'_:5 -O,5~ " , 22. 073 s.o.n.s. ~ dol ... ~ \,I s ~ ~, 19IIC ~ 01:" "'""" 1s.eC een..u.s ~ I~ ~"'Ii a'll Irom """"-'.c.IO ~ ~y lWi~ congesdoTl .or; cv:nmut~ng limel aiievialeo by anj splH· o ... er of .,.,'orl.: uip~ oulside traditional peak hours: There was onl}' vtry mooerale peak elol'lga:ion in Ihc sm.aller (\eu thar: SOO,COO pop~lation) mtu"OpOr\,an areas. jl,TlY Icndency for peak "i1/0rK trips tC dedine was offset by.l growlh in peak !1On',r,'ork trips (Gordon, Kumar, ... nd Richardson 1989b). Funhermcre, the pc>pulalion growth chla ofTabre I suggest lhat there ... -a~ ~umcjenl increase :n the numtt:;s us·!ng the ranch j~ m .. ny mClropoi'112n areas during this period 10 ereale oo:nU:-;:l prc5s~re 0" t:-anspoitalioTl sssttm. III\Lhou.1 4. suffiCient!;' "rong ~up­ ply res~nse" Another po,sibility (SlJggened 10 us by Genevievc Giurl.ano) is Lhat.a Jenflhening or commUltng t~melo for males '"'as hiGden b)' an increase in the share of fem .. le ccmrnuten. SeUi\lSe women n.a"e sigrtific<!:f1ti)l shciter commules (Gordon, Kumar, 81'ld Ric!,an:l!;on 1989b). th~~ could bring do",," the m~;j[[n averaged over.all ':ommul(:n. Ho",'evei", .u:omobile cQmmuf:ng times eil]1er dedtne-d or rtmained stab!~ for males, whether $Ir.att(l~d by d::,'· size clas.s or in<:ome, between 1971 and 198), ... hilt:: ft"· male to:Tlmute .. lended to lEngthen a !illle:, especiall)'"11'1 Ihe Ihne m"tllion plu! city·size d,,~~ 'Gordon. h:umolr and Rich3rdscn 1989b. Tabks t ar'ld 9), The L~nds ""ere s:rni~ilr bel",'een J980 and 1985. Our pref~lTed eJl:.plamH;on "f the decllfle in '::DrrlmU~Jrlg tir.'le5 =3' (hal enough commtJleT'$ .... ere maUng io.::arion adj-.stmen,s (or b~.~~fi,lng fror.-: ioeallon adju>lmems b~ fli:-nS) 10 pT't\"ent thc eXLra time CNts of in'::iea~ing congu'\()t\ {rem h ... irl'g a 'lgnificant impa\;t on ccm· mufng ... ~'erage~. Tt1.e~~ adju~tm-=-nts mig-hi irwoh'c a chal'lE~ in re5~dence or a cl1ange i1'l ..... ork place (;and sc.melimes bo!h). Cilhu 1.0 rtduce :ne ien~:~ of the wDrk Irip or 10 alio",' ~he 'Use or less eOl'lgestcd jOules. .1\1;I;]y of lhe: looliDr, changes in"t,ll'cd more Sl.;'Our!:a,,'lut'lon (b .... hcwse~olds} ad ce;;:en:ra1i=a~10r. (by !irm~) ..... 105: A..!'TI~rican metropolilt.t1 areas c!Urll'lg the stu.dy period were becol'l"jng more po!:-centric. The downtowns' a~· read}' sm .. rl share of melrOrQIllan region jobs continu.ed 10 decline, as indeed :t mt.:S1 if 'on~inued metropolnan p<,'pu!atiol'l and employmenl ~row~~ is 10 be achieved wil.hc\l1 i ieng\herliq" 'Of <:('mr.,l,li'.r.b dis\2"n<:ei; and tra .... eJ tlme~. Commuting and _~jal StruclUre t:7JfO!lUllal~I)'. a.i1.hough th~ AHS. has ~.o"'~ d.illl about mo\e~, .h~~e is no ~nrorrr:ation avallabk about com­ ;;;ll:lflg time~ a: prel'ious localions. so Iho'll Ihe hypolhe.is :hat m.any movers chan.!!~d Ioca::O:1 10 s~onen Ihe ""·o,l;. Ir~p can:'JOI bt :c,led dlreClJ) (r.,-'r is ItIrorm~tion available .. b,-'ut comm.liers who cha·'gea Lne·li '''''o~" place), Bow- .~ ~~~~r'··· -~ '"" ()HE COMMUTlNG PARADOX 0 - Itver, moven. &om the centro! ciry had (reprdlt~s of their nclo\" Jocoiltior.} longer cvmmtlting times (253 c-'"'mpared with 21.4 ",inule~) than mOilers from t)-;e suburbs {rt. gardle$~ o~ t~dr de~tin.alrQft). This m.8)' ~ inlnpreled;as indirecl tvidrncc (nat cemra! cltv r::s=denl~ are les5 com­ m'Jling time-~m~:jv,: tha:1 s~b~rhanite!i. On the other h:znd. slJburban cOf~muling limes ~rr.~tned on 111£ av­ e-"Il,g~some ..... hallongerd:an centra! ciry commuting times {abouL 0.8 minutes} bi:cluse of the innlJcnce or the !t:b­ urban outrie~ co:nmuting 10 oo .... 'nww01. Bul this was nOI true of bng.cstablisncd' .suburbanite; in :he mere dis persed ci!ie.s(wilh I.l .a.'tragt commute ortwenty-onc mir',,;tes). This h In impona:1\ poinl becau~ it suggem thaI poi,)'centric or dispened rr.elropolit:lrl st.~C!ures /lire espE'cian}' fa"o~ble 10 shon commU1CS, A neglected ex­ planatior1 of .5uburbanizalil,lrl is the opponunilY il offers for ccml7!uting economies, ~xcept for those wno conlin1Je 10 work in the cen\ral ::ily, espec'iall:y dowmown'. The~ is a nriking difference in aUII> commuting tilnes between o'en~ (New York. Chicago. !a:limore}. nd dis.­ persed (Danas. fho~nlx. San Diego) ci,ie~, The limes are 251030 percent h!ghe~ far central cit)' reslderm. [}e'1s.e cities result 1ro much longer automobii~ commuliTlg limes thlm spre"d·oul. disperse.:! c'llje~ ine)' imply mort; congestion. wherea! spraw~ (or, less pejoratively. &!>­ pen;ion) cffen; more di .... e1")e oppon.unities for ra~1er comrnlJtes through changes oi re.!:iden-ce or jobs. t.he n:~ lcx:allOrl of finns. or the choice of uncongesled roules. Aiso. commuting times tend to be shoner in rapidl~ growlni chies. c .... idcnce lhat gro ..... th pe' se does not leae 10 ubiquitous congestion. provided thai :he spatial di~ tribulion or growth is cr,ndlJc~~'e to ..... ork trip-econC'miz· ing behr,'ior by botr. (1"115 and hou5-e!'lolds.. The Future A pes~imist mlghl arglJe th3!. even [{the e.sciilpe halt:.h of .spalia! redi .. tributioo has pre~'enled the ...:ont ef1ects of congestion up to now, this relicf may nal bt" possible in the fulu~. EventuilHy. the pressu!"es or gro ..... ·lh and de\erionlling cOI"'.gestion w:.1', become over.A'h<!lmin,g For c)"ample. p~anners in Sout!lcrr, California hD",e proj~.::ted a dCloms-:1ay 5Cer"la;lo. if c"n-enl1rencls Continue, of dlop. ping freeway speeds o~er tb:~ rle;;.1 t\I.>'enty years by almos1 50 percent and speed~ on o1he. roads by 45 perce.,.: 10 twenty-rour and nincteen mites per nour J"especlively (Sou1hem Cs:li.fon!ta AS50cia:km of Governments 19S8a). Among the proposed remedies tS OIn ambi!ious growth m-Olnagemcnt plarl to eHminale imbalances wilhin com~ munilie5 by changing the gee,graph'lc dtHriblJ!i~n within Ihe T"esion of new housing and empio}ment (~ulhern California Associalion of Covemments 1985b). The ac­ tions inclu~e ma5s'~",c pubric subsidies funneled througn the Cummunil), Redcvclopl"l"'.en! Agene} to bu~ld aITllrc+ .3ble hOU.!iing on expensivl: I ... nd in or ..:i.")se 1(' dOWnlo""'n, ~g"oring the facl Ihal job growth i-n d(,wTIlo .... n is olily one·th~rd orlhe '!"ale i11 the rest of the reglOr1 or Ih.a.t 1010.­ "':lge job gro ..... ·lh in downlown is v~nu<ll1)' sng-nanl. ------------------------- Wha1 tr.ese p~opos3ls ignore is the: SpO!"llane-ous rt+ IO';al1011 dect~;Qn! by firms Jnc households do ...... el) ni<;c job of achielt'ing bal ance, and" "rk eep;n~ commlJt"lr.g times .... jlhin tolnable limils Wilhou! cosdj' ;:-lanni.ng Ir.· t<;r"o'enl:orls. V, .. ithjn Sou!hem Cariromia, th:s !-la.1 hap. pe:1ed irl subur't-an Orange-COU!lt:~ ',E the I ... ~, decade, and il ..... ilJ happen ;J"llhe-next decade in the-rapId:)' g~ow· ing O~1(T counties of San !kmardino and Ril'ersk:te-. wh~ch are c:'1perlenc'tng .IInnua\ popuiation gruwd1 rale~ in e;:l;ces.!i of 5 percent. Th'! "rprcp6ale role-fOT plannJng agefl'::ies and local jur:.$dic~iorH shewk! bt 10 facili:"te t!le decenlralization of jobs by re:uir.g zC1rling r(~1r"iciion~ Ihilt Iim:1 commerciat land u~es in rt'sidemlal commu· ni::es, 10 help j;, land assembJ}', 1-0 pro"ide eCt'nol?1i::: infr.o!stn.: Clure-. and 10 dL:;cou r.3 ge gr'j,.. 1:C con Lrol i:1 it i a· tives-in othe-r words, belp the m.orKel to .... t'rk ralnCr (nu. a1temp1 tc:' s;rangle it. \\ilh such ar. app!"oacr.. eeo· no~ic .. gents (bvlh firms and hOlJsehofds) ...... i~1 b~ abie to cor.:inue 10 make raliom:1 ouisiol1s. ho1d commuting times in check, and miligale conge!!ior.. The commuli-ng patoioox 1'enec~s !h~ a~'iJa~ei11 CO~lr-a· d'letio!"] b~:wee~ pe,ceplioi1~ (If wor!>eni:1g lrar:;c ctonges· tion and eVlde~ce of ei1het dedming Or sta!:-k corr.~r . .1Iing time.!. However, not onl), is the~ no contradic:ion but the twO pner!Omerl2 an: cau.s,ny r(latcd, Rationa! com· muler.; ..... ill, soon~r or la1er. seek 10 eKlpe congeslion b,)' chs:nging the loc3tior. of their h·')mes allc/or !lleir job~. This type of adj~s!menl is ea~ier to make in :arge, dis­ persed metrop{);~tl!:! .IIl'"'ea~ \',rirh a;:ema;i ... ·e employment sUDcenlen alld I wide v.ari~t~ of residemia! neighbor· hoods. The p~oces~ i.s fa(:ilitaled by ,he dece.ma!fz:ng loca(lon dccis'lom of firm! seeki~g 10 move closer to sub­ urban labor pooh. There is slill cOTls;de-nble s~:"Ope ror r.10~ -readjustmenls 50 thaI commlJting time~ ne-ed i10t inCtea~. even 'If high ..... ays became more conge~ted. However. irl mos. ~rba1"': areas. with th~ possib[e e)l;cep­ lion oftho~e e)l;periencing rapid net inmigralion, panic_ uTlrl)' from abroad. congeslior, is un!tkel}' 10 gel much "·orse. Rec~r.i ce:rlographics sho ..... , an enG to the bilb.\ boom-propell~d gro ..... lh in the dri·.,.ing BEe pOplJ]atlon.. the peaking or female 12bor force pa!1:clpalion. 2nc a salural'on i-n t."e-:-.:!ti-o ofy~hictes 10 the d;i .... ing,a£~ pi:1j:" u:31ion (l...a ... e 1 990)."1'h( p'.;.rpos~ i)flh:~ pap.!r:.s I;:. ~,:g. ge-5ol reasons wh,)' the increasJllg empha~is on c"ngeslion doomsday .!oce;1arro~ i~ o ... 'erblown. blJt 'We will h<l"~ 10 ..... ail unlij 1992 or 1993 .... ·hen lhe 1990 0:PTS and Cert~u5 !'t:suh~ a~ published 10 c011firm that ,he comm: . .t!lng par-­ ado;\'. conli-nues. AV1HORS· Non We wish 10 lhJr.~ lh~ anon,'mous rereree, and Ger.~, ic~ e­ Ciu:iano for helf:r"U~ cC'rmT1e-rl~S and sugge~~ic::s NOTES --.---,--------------- 1. As a recenl If atypical e)l;olmple, the ne",'est feder-al e."(pe~~ on trJn,porta:,on plJnnLng arld urbw.n c~i""'e " • , PETER GOROOr-.)ARRY W. RICHARDSON. AND M":"2NG,'IN JUN the CC!11tr rol' Diseait: ComrolU} il'1 Allanlit. publ1sh~d a p.lper in the Jat/mar oj jh~ AmeriCQ'1 Medj('a[ As· lod .. lior: blaming lr.e 1987 LOl Angeles rreeway thoatings on gridlock and trzffic congestion .. To ;-8· tionartzt that ol'lly 30 perunt or the assaultS leok place in p~.k nou~ the rcscllrcners su,ggrsu:a that orr.pca,k c::mg.eslion was mere frustrating beca.u.s.e it was less c){pecled (reported by Sperli!1g 19M). 2. W'hertlS the Hanks and Lomax study ciles Los An· Sdu as t~e most congested. I recent Slud)' by V.'irthlin rtpal"'lcd on I Ju .... ey in which two-thirds of Los An. g~le.s County c:oml'l'Hlters descr.bed their commutes as "flO!"' t)( ·'only somewhal-conics-ted. Ai.so. th: Los: Ju'lge!es RCiianal TranStlor!dlim'] S:udy (L!\.RTS) surveys of .!.lto cornmllting lime~, Co"dw';led in 19f1c7 Iud i976. reportt:d avt:rage lrip dUT'1lltions th;/it .are "il"lu8Iiy the s,amt: a.s the !960 and r985 numbers reo ?'lr!ed in T a bJe 1. 3. Longer c:ommutins !ime$ fo~ central cit)' ;esidents who movt:d 10 the suburbs p~obab!y reriect that n~li.ny I)r them did not change j<:lbs. A higher proportion of suburb·to·sub urb movers pr<:lbabJy already worked b, thc suburbs.. 4. A pCl!'.SibL: t.aw in this analy~i& could bc jf !hc recent strong growth in noo""'ork travel. eVCn during peak hou~ c:o~tinues IG<:lrdon, X\lma!'", and Richardson !9S2a). REFERENCES Cordor., P., A. Kuma;". anc H. \',0'. Rlchards<)r;. ]9893, Congestion, Changing !.1elropo!itan Stt1.JcJure. and City Size in the Unill."d Stales.. (IIIUllQdtma1 ReEiollCli Sci· encr R~l!irl4' 12. 1: 45·~,6. • ___ . !989b. ~nder Dilierentu in Metropolitan Tr:a.'cl BehaVIor. Re£iol1a! Swaies i::;:. 6: 499-510. ___ . 1~88a. Bcyond the jOtlme), 10 Work. Trcmpor. talion Research A 22"'-. 6: -419+26. ____ 1989b. reak·5p~eadl:lg: How .~1u~h? Tr::IIspor­ jlllio~ R~~eQ~d! 24A. 3: 165-75. Hanks. ramrs H., Jr_. ano Timoth)' J. Lem2 ...... 1 g';lJ. R()tuf· .. alQ)' COl1gf'm·ol1 in Afa/or L'rban A~eQ.S J9~J /0 19S8. Working Paper ."0. 910146. Coilege SIJllrCr,; Tel::ils Transponatfol"1lnstitu l e. Lave. C. 1990. Things Won't Gel. a LeI \VOM:c: The Fu:ure 'Jr U.S. jraIT:c: Congesllcn. Irvine; InSliu.L!e of Tran5+ pena,ion Sludie~. L·!'1.iversiIY of Cillifurr.ia. Phanki. A. 1987. Commwing in AmericQ, We"port. CT: Eno Foundalicn ror Tral1spon.ation Res~a"cr.. Southem Califomia .'\55068,lon of Govemmer,ts. I gSBa. Regional Mobill/Y Plan. Los Angeles: Soutncm Carf­ fomia Associa:iC'rl ,',f GQY'm~enr~ __ .1988b. Crowrh ManQlSemel"..1 Pia.'t. Lo~ Angele~' Southern Callromia Asso.:i.ation or C"vemmenu. Sperfing. O. 19S9. Cric!lock Mil)' Be :he.;, in Sho''J.I!rlg~. LiSA Today October 27, 1 A A remarkable meditation on the topography of the modern dty~ "'A courleo.u~I'r' lucid decon.lrudFonis11e-.t" _ Tht f'W.r>t. Yo,ifr PelPr Juk~ pur~u~s four urban landKilj)!.'~ 11'1 an .. )~!'mblase 01 h'i owr, II!liOCilri'1! ess.I'~, t":.rprpl.5 Irom ~m :n.astC'~ Su< r. iI' BenJamll'l. Bdr!~(,'S, .lnd Sonl.o&, and ~ • .:;.,j phol(.'<o s:" 9; ....... , ~~+. DO~ .l!u.:';:~ ~;"-;-c.I~· e;:~ VtW"~Itr::;:'1! UNiVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA PRESS .bI'!\ lei .-.tA:n ..... '(IlJ. O"':n:J , I .. --Q., .~ u - 2 -:: 8 'i"" , .~-:~ " "J;' ·r , ,- I M!!.Mr..Ji!!Y..!It.~""cl Mnt5u,~ 'n "r"t' IIf nllml'rhl,'\ rnn'rol f"ffnth; OYPf !i('vt'Jal tf('\'ad,,,, mntor v(,h,dr\ Mnlintl(' in hI!. rMjnr .. ,' pntlutkm rrohl('m. lb(o fm('r31 .111d e,Mf'fn,a molnt vt'hiclt' {'mIOj"~" mnlml ","~r"ft!Oj NV(' "'IIUn'lllailpiJ"l' {,"",sint'll rat{". Iltf alllnrnottiln hy ahonl9ft'l,. IIIIWt'VPf,lh{' sh('ll'r nllmhrr 01 v('hid('~ .Jnd ,,,pldly ~rn"Yin~ UlO~ h"Yt· ",1\", Vtm4:' nI 'hi!' Rai.'!, rlr,nfr 10 ~h(Jws hil5ic Ir.vl"l inf{lnn,1litlR fro, !hlP "ay "f\'~ hl'lnri­ (",lily and rrnjl'ct<'d i"Io the o{'ar·trrm {ulul'(". R('lahv(' In n'!wr mh,lni1l'" Calirnrnilol r.-,;ion!lo. !lll(k •• I..ns An~('II'5. Solo On'go, S,wf.lml'l'!0.111,1 r'Vf'n many Cl'nlr.,1 Villtlry mmmunilil'l\ !hll;' &y Art,.,'" r.rnw,t. rlllt'" ,nt" Ih(' low(,!Io1 "emr/rnry 10 I",lr/ic {JcrCt'Jllimrs. ,,,.. Il'IIglI' Of ",osllri/,,< is ,J('(·rI·n~""s ' .. VJ\t~T will ,,,rrcnse ".'1 ... "'f' m't" of f,nl'uh,'in" s,."",,/t, .. ""Iw('(>n ICWO"n.-' 21110, v{'hlck> triP'" arl" fnn'Uslln grow by '1? ~rrl'ht. t-Inmc tn wnr" Ifip" will r,row by 21 prf(,CflI or nn'y <;Iil';hlly tno:lf(' Ih,m Ih(' r.lft' or j:>Orulailon ""WI~, Cnnlri'ry In rmblk flt'fr('rlinn!. Ikr Il'n,;lh 01 ,"0';.1 In~., dN:'rt'.II,;ng. OY('f Ihl' ncolll ""('nly Yf';U!i. rh,.-t1v('r.1J!:t' trip ""ill bt-q pt'Kl'nl ",Mtlrr. whill? Ih(' I('''p.th Ilf Iht' 'mm(' In work Ifit' Will dl'l"r(',l!i(' tJy I' ~r",nl . ,(, rllllowinr, ,I,'(',ll!t,'t of "'I"tl growth. Ihf' flllt' jll ,"lip" drivrn will 'Itow iII't w('11 from I'IIK) (1.711111, thr Inl'll n"r "r(',l v('liidr mllM 1'lIvt"ll'tt (VMTI wi" inrt('i''M' hy fA'},. 1(',\'IIh.1n (Int' I",'rn'ol prr yrilr. antt t''IV'nli.ll1y tht' r,llt' .,f PI'rul,'Iiun r,rr,wlh ('-I"'{"" duringlhl' !101m" limt·. W"rk rr!,lll'l1 VMT will r,rthv hy I:' I",'rr('ol nr !"so; Ih.m H~t' r_fot'f"lf'd ~rUI.llif)n in('rt'a~'. Du.' In dl'.1n('( n('w ran. rnnh'r v('hjr-!I' 1'",i'lIl;I\II'1 will ronlillllt' 10 ---... --.-----.. -~-....-.-................... --- J .. ', ,:,"'---~'I~"~'---~------.. ----~-- dl'(fl'.1!'t'ln Ih(' nay Att."a (Of Ih('fnf"l'!ilC'\'abl .. hHurt'. a .. nnlt'd rrt'vi(lu,\')' Til iUTI,lt".llt'lht> rrnjN""ll'd d£llC"11'lo"i('~.lht, CAlln h.I't P"IpoM'd /I ~fi .. ~ of .oughl;ot standards 'or many ""hil'l(' da"'1irw~' liotts. Oth('r prt'J;J"ilM5 will (\lrlht.'r m:lu(,1t' v('hi(I('('mi~'\innl;, A~ 011 5('\'('t(' Jl(ln·.1u"jnm('i"ll arl't1. t'v(Ory (('41siblr rrogr'''m rrn)"ltlw br thl' CARn jill Jl('{'(it'd ,(I' Ih(' flay Arf'",. 1\'1 pilrl of 111("91 CAP. thi!'! indudl'S thr rllll(lw;ng program" all'{'a(ly i1d('~t"I.t by I,,", CARS sin('(' 19R7· R"g\.l!illlOn, fOf low-('mi'J$lon v('hit"ln aM clNn fud~. inrludil'll; tr.n~ulinnal1(lw·rmis~on ,-"('hidM. low-("",;!'I5i.»'I vt'hl('tM. ullrlll-Inw~mi"sion v('h,cI,'s and 7('rn ('mi'l5il'ln v('hld["!lu Fuels nrc"~ry 'OJ"lht~ v('hi('lt'S mll~1 bt.' pmvidl'\i .s IhMr v('hi(ll" a~ ;nluxtumi into ih(' n('ll'I. Impmvrd insp«Iion/n...~intmjllnct' ("'Smflgr:~l"("k") prngram; O'1-00ard dia~~11c !iy!ilt'm"t -r~a!i(l' 2; C('flifit'oIIlion (""'OCI'(I\lft"i lllF aU('rmarl.('1 NI""ylic mnv{'rl­ {'n; Rt'vi'k"d i~-,,~ v"hidt' J("('"II rt'gll •• lliorn; Amt'ndl"lt f'''''i~ion ('onlml ~y!ilf'tfl wartilnly rl~Hir(,rW.'n'5 IIntl 5Iantl"rdilt'd nomrhdahlt(l; R('vi'l('(l flghl'ltu,y "fI('rm.1fi<:,,1 po",rl!'! pmgr-am; ,lOll I f",wy-tfUly v('hlcl(' (j.t. trurk di"~'I't) <;mn1(' rnfnr("('ml'nl rrlll'.'J",; n .. y ""'ell ·ftl Clu" A/t PI." (CAf1). Implemenling All "'fe;nlt)'e~ Conlfl)l!l \ ) ., Jj·'-v ,l~;;., .. :\,,' '.! , M ,.-~ I, I·'· \ ~' I \ I I I ! i , \ . ~·;;1~, .,.,iJ / / __________ ~~.k'_'_~_~. __ "".~~:::~~c:.. Figure 10 • Bay Area Vehicle Trave: Characteristics; Trips, Trip Length, and VMT l I -. , • ~ · • ~ · i a 1990 and 2010 Trips' -... -... .. ..- VtlMll trip T,,,, . ~"'4 Growth Overall L Sou,,,, MIL {<kw.. '')'¥II ~ o < • ~ A < • • ~ ~ • Average Trip Length" ..... "-111 .... ~ .. ~ 1I1l ... Vt~c', Tri~ T~". .. 9% De'lUSI O'lerall It,l' II,,,, '1t r:11I,III "" '·t.1I1 ,CAI'I .1I1I,tll" .... ""''I 1\11 'I 1/,1' ,hi" l.tll",(,I,. .. , ~ ~ ~ J > • ~ a Vehicle Miles 01 Travel'" , .. \~) -.--.au Vttlie" T~"Typt 9 o ~'I 1.10.. I I 0 .. 16' Growth Ovetall '.1 \.~ . .. ./ 'iJ,It ... ~ ,~:;" ·r