Loading...
HomeMy WebLinkAbout0259.091· , May 9, 1991 HONORABLE CIT~ COUNCIL Palo Alto, california SHD'rlLl FEASI 81 LITY STVOX Members of the Council: BACXGROUND r STANFORD RESEARCH PAR' This is an informational report, no Council action is required. As a condition of approval for a new office building on Page Mill Read betveen Hansen Way and Hanover street, Varian, Inc. bas conducted a study to determine the feasibility of operating a shuttle service. between the Stanford Research park, california Avenue CalTrain Station, and other selected areas, to facilitate and encourage the use of public transit and other non-drive alone .odes of travel. included as Attachment 1 is a copy of the Shuttle Feasibility study -Final Report (January 1991), prepared by crain and Associates, Inc. tor Varian, Inc. PRIMARY FIMpINGS AND QQNCI~ION5 A. current transit se.rvice betveen the California CalTrain station ana Stanfora Research Park is generally adequate to meet the needs of employees currently commuting on calTrain~ Althougb there ~r. some gaps in the Route 24 schedule, the Route 88 scheaule is well coordinated with train schedules. B. The major deficiency in existing county Transit service is the absence of service to F.esearch Park firms located on Deer Creek Road. c. The study, which included a survey of 124'000 employees at Lockheed, Varian, Alza, Xerox, and P.ewlett Packard (with 3,300 respondents) f found considerable interest in a commute shuttle (two-thirds of respondents) and a noon hour shuttle (one-half of respondents}. CIIR: 259,91 , r ~ t ,-, ~ , \ , / -------------....;..--~ D. E. o o Probable ridership is ~ore than 300 passengers per day for a commute shuttle, with noon hour shuttle ridership exceeding 350 rider. per day. Four commute period shuttle service concepts., 'With varyinq ~ervice levels and coveraqe area, vere evaluated. All of the alternatives assume commute period shuttle service operation from 6:00 a.m. to 10:00 a.m. and rrom 4:00 p.m. to 7:00 p.m. 1.. ReplAcement S,ryicelBigh Covfiraqe Shutt:.e service replaces County Transit Routes 24 and 88 to CalTrain Station during the commute periods. Expanded coverage of Research Park. Cost of shuttle service: lO ainute headway 15 .inute beadway $ 228,O~ to $ 311,000 annually $ 152.,000 to $ 233,000 annually 2.. ReplAcement Service/Similar Coverage -service similar to alternative 1 without expanded coveraqe. Cost of service: 10 minute headway 15 minute headway $ 114,OO~ to $ 154,000 annually $ 76,000 to $ 116,000 annually 3. SUpplemental Service/Expanded Coverage -county Transit Routes 24 and 88 remain, shuttle vould provide coveraqe of poorly served areas of Resaarch Park. Cost of shuttle service: 4. 10 minute headway 15 minute headway $ 114,000 to $ lS4 t OOO annually $ 76,000 to $ 116,000 annually ~S!.lu,!pp"l'l~em,!",e~DlJt~a~l~-,:S"epry~ .. i c~e"/~Sc"..h"ie":dI!J!U~l;,e,:---:·,=,,G~ p ,i 11 • Shut tl e service vould fill gaps in the existing county Transit schedule to improve the worst bus-train connections. Cost of shuttle service: variable headway $ 38,000 to $ 77 r OOO annually F. Tbree noon period shuttle service concepts 'W'ith varyin<j service leveltil and destinations (Downtown Palo Alto: California Avenue; and Town and Country Village). All altl?matives assume noontiae shuttle service operation tor a two hour midday period. CIIR:259:91 5/9/91 Page 2 , " / '\ -.!..:.--' 1~ Downtown Palo Alto, California Avenue and Town' Cquntry - Noontime shuttle service from Stanford Research Park to all three destinations. Cost ot shuttle service: 10 .inute h~adway 1S minute headway $ 133,000 to $ 168,000 annually $ 89,000 to $ 122,000 annually 2. DoWDtgwn Pllo Alto and Town , Country -Noontime shuttle servioe trom Stanford Research Pa~k to Downtown Palo Alto and Town and Country with a stop at (rather than service along') the California Avenue business district~ Cost of shuttle service: 10 minute headway 15 minute headway ~ 117,000 to $ 151,000 annually $ 88,000 to $ 106,000 annually 3. Dovntown Palo Alto Direct via Alma Street -Noontime shuttle servioe froD Stanford Research Park direct to downtown palo Alto with no.service at Town and Country Village. Cost or Shuttle service: 10 minute headway $ 15 minute headway $ BS,OOC'to ~ 118,000 annually S7~OCO to $ 88,000 annually G. Given the current economic c1 imate and the pendinq reg tonal control mea.sures for vehicle usage, indications a.re that Stanfor~ Research Park employers would be reluctant to embark on an experimental s.huttle s.ervice without conclusive evidence that existing transit service is inadequate. H. county Transit is not receptive to discontinuing service on Routes 24 or 88 in exchange 'for shuttle service, because service provided in the Research Park is an integral part of overall service prOVided elsewhere by these routes4 I. County Trar~it acknowledges opportunities and a villingness to consider an adjustment to selected Route 24 transit trips to provide limited service to the Deer Cre~k Foad area. SUMKARY Within the context of the current service provided by County Transit Routes 24 and 88, there appears to be high user interest, limited service need, .and no financial support :for a shuttle service between the Stanford Research Park and California CalTrain Station~ county Transit staff will be evaluating potential demand and ways to include transit service to the Deer Creek Road work sites within the County's existing route structure. '5/9/91 Page 3 • \' .~'j- " --.:.. / --~----- o o A8 programs and aeaaures continue to evolve in order to address congestion Management Agency and Bay Area Air Quality Management Dist.rict requirements and requlations, inte.re&t in .and support tor high quallty shuttl~ service connecting people with available and e:xpanding transportation and otller services is likely to increase .. This study docwaent provides a useful reference and resource as appropriate opportunities become evident. Respectfully sub .. i tted. ~kTdt:'Jd~ MARVIN L. OVERWAY Chief Transportation Official KEIINETH R. SCHREI BER Director of Planninq and community Environment Assistant City Manager Attachment: 1. Shuttle Feasibility Study -Final Report (January 1991) cc: Planning Commi& s ion Architectural Review Board Stanford University -Zera Murphy, Andy Doty, Julia Fremon Palo Alto Chamber of Commerce -Edie Dorosin California Avenue Area Development Association Stanford Research Park Companies Stanford Research Park Transportation Coordinators Golden Triangle commuter Network CKR:259:91 5/9/91 Page 4 SIllJ1."1'L8 I'DSIBlL:I'fi S1'Ut)Y Final l\eport Prepared for:- Va.z::ian, Inc. Prepa.red by: Crain ~ Associates. Inc& January 1991 / o !rABL3 OJ' COII'rZNTS Section EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Table 2-1 2-2 2-3 2-4 2-5 2-6 2-7 INTRODUCTION SHUTTLE SURVEY Summary of Findings Survey Methodology Survey Response Rate Employees' Existing Commute Interest in the Noontime Shuttle Potential Shuttle Ridership SERVICE ALTERNATIVES Introduction Summary of Findings Commute Shuttle ~ternatives Shuttle ~ternatives . Noontime Shuttle Service SHUTTLE ~LUATION Summary of Findings Evaluation Criteria Evaluation Process . Analysis of Alternatives county Transit Service to Deer Creek F.oad Conclusions List of Tables Response Rate Commute Mode of Respondents Who Use the Same Mode 5 Days a Week . . . . Respondents' Round Trip,s Per Weelc by Mode Train Users' Arrival and Departure Times at California Avenue Train Users' Mode of Travel Between Station and Work Site B~s Users by Route Arrival Time i 1-1 2-1 2-1 2-2 2-3 2-5 2-14 2 -21 3-1 3-1 3-2 3-2 3-9 3-16 4-1 4-1 4-2 4-3 4-3 4-6 5-1 2-4 2-5 2-6 2-7 2-7 2-7 2-6 • Table 2-8 2-9 2-10 2-11 2-12 2-13 2-15 2-16 2-17 2-18 2-19 2-20 2-21 2-22 2-23 2-24 2-25 2-26 2-21 3-1 0'1. ... '.­V 'l'JUlLZ OF CONnN'l'S (Conl;inuecl) List of ~ables (Contipued) Departure Time Frequency of Commute Shuttle Use Estimated Daily Shuttle Rouno Trips by S&~ple Employees Highest Probably Oaily Round Trips for All Employees Shuttle Use by Train Riders Shuttle Use by Bus-using Train Riders Intended Shuttle Use by Daily Commuters Shuttle Users' Work Ho~rs Maximum Fare for Shuttle users and Frequent Shuttle Users Most P~pular Noontime Destination Maximum Wait Time Frequency of Noontime Shuttle Use aighest Probably Daily Round Trips for All Employees Co~ute Mode of Noontime Shuttle Use~s Lunchtime Shuttle Destinations Pref~rred Maximum Fare of Noontime Shuttle Users Maximum Fare Preferences by Level of Use of Noontime Shuttle Use of Commute Shuttle by Noon Shuttle Riders Estimated Daily Round Trips for Commute Shuttle Estimated Daily Trips fc~ NOOGtime Shuttle Combined Costs of Commute and Noon Shuttle at. Alternative Headways . _ _ _ . . . . . 2-9 2-10 2-11 2-11 2-12 2-13 2-13 2-14 2-15 2-15 2-16 2-17 2-11 2-ld 2-19 2-20 2-20 2-22 2-24 3-3 .. 3-2 3-3 3-4 3-5 3-6 3-7 4-1 4-2 4-3 Figure 3-1 3-2 3-3 3-4 3-5 3-6 3-7 o TABLZ 01' CONTEN'l:S (Continued) o List of Tables (Cgntinued) ~~ality of Meets Between County Transit and CalTrain .. 4 ~ • Wait Times for Train-To-Shuttlel Shuttle-to-Train at Alternate Shuttle Headways Comparison of Shuttle Service and County Transit by Percentage of Meets Within Wait Time Limits ..... ~ . . ~ 4 • Estimated Commute Shuttle Annual Operating Costs at Alternative Beadways ..... Shuttle -Gap Fill-With Custom Headways Estimated Noon Shuttle Annual Operating Costs at Alternative Headways Route 24 Ridership Current and Alternative Route 24 Schedules from California Avenue CalTrain Station Potential Cal Train Comm~ters at Deer Creek Road Employers List of Fiaures Existing County Transit Service Alternative 1; (High Coverage) Replacement Service Alternative 2; Cover) Replacement Service (Similar ~ternative 3~ Supplemental Se~vice (Expanded Coverage) 4 ~ ~ • • ~ Estimated Commute Shuttle Annual Operating Costs at Alternative Headways .. ~ ~ ~ ~ Noon Shuttle Alternative 2: Downtown via Town & Country Village Noon Shuttle Alternative 3: Downtown Direct via Alma ~ . . . , .'~; .:. .-­.. -"" 3-6 3-7 3-8 3-10 3-15 3-17 4-8 4-9 ~-lO 3-4 3-)2 3-13 3-14 3-10 3-20 3-22 • / .• ~ This report describes a study to determine the feasibilit~t of operatinq shuttle service between the Stanford Research Park and the California Avenue CalTratn Station. The study was conducted by the Varian Corporation during 1989 and 1990. The findinqs of the study are summari~ed as follows. The Shuttle Feasibility Study was conducted as a condition of approval by the City of Palo Alto tor a new plant facility constructed by Varian. The objective of th~ study was to deter­ mine if a transit shuttle connectinq the Cal Train Station at California Avenue with Stanford Research Park could provide an incentive for more employees to ride Cal Train and thereby reduce traffic conqestion in and around the Research Park. Employees at Lockheed, Varian, Alza J Xerox and Hewlett Packard were surveyed to determine the level of interest in a shuttle and ~tential ridership. Approximately 3,300 of 12,000 employees at these companies responded to the survey. More than two-thirds (2,325J expresse~ an interest in a commute shuttle. Most were employees who now use CalTrain; however, 7\ were solo drivers who WQuld consider using CalTrain. Few persons who now carpool or vanpool have any interest. Probable shuttle ridership is more than 300 passengers per day. Employees were also asked about their interest in a noon hour shuttle operating from the Stanford Research Park to downtown Palo Alto, Town' Country Village, Ot California Avenue. About 50' of respondents (1,S64) expressed interest in a noon i • hour shuttle4 350 ride.rs per f"- Based on the re$ponses l probable ridership is over day and could be as high as aoo riders per day. Four commute-hour shuttle s~rvice concepts were analyzed. All were designed to provide aptimu~ schedule connections ~ith northbound and southbound trains at California Avenue and direct routes to most employers. Tw~ alternatives ~ould replace County Transit Route 24 and Route 88 with either equivalent coverage of the Stanford ~esearch ~ark or expanded coverage t~ Deer Creek Road. If operated by a private operator these would cost from $116 1 000 to $311,000 annually depending on the frequency of service operated. Two other alternatives would supplement County Transit service either with additional schedules or with the expanded coverage to Deer Craek Road~ Additional schedules would cost $38~OOO to $77,000 per year if privately operated, depending on service frequency. Expanded coverage would cost $76,000 to $154,000 depending on service frequency. No fares were presumed in these estimates. If fares were c~arged, the cos~s would be lower. Noon hour shuttle service alternatives ranqed in cost from S28,000 to $133,000 depending on routing, destination and service frequency. county transit is not receptive to discontinuing service on Route 24 or Route BS in exchange for shuttle service~ Service provided in the Research Park is an integral part of overall service provided by these routes~ Current transit service between the California Avenue Cal Train Station and the Stanford Research Park was determined to be generally adequate to meet the needs of Research Park employees currently commuting on CalTrain. ii . o Stanford Research Park employers are not likely to provide fundinq for a shuttle unless the existing transit service is found to be inadequate 4 There is little enthusiasm for replacing -free-County Transit service with a costly ~huttle system if service improvements are marginal. There is unlikely to be support for a noon-hour shuttle because it is not essential to the work ccmmute. Although there are some gaps in the Route 24 schedule, the Route 88 schedule is generally ~el1 coordinated with train schedules. The major deficiency in County Transit service is the absence of service to firms located on Oeer Creek Road. Improvements should focus on this area. there ~ resources for providing service along Oeer Creek Road. County Transit will consider shifting selecte~ Route 24 transit trips from the Veterans Hospital to Deer Creek Road to serve Deer Creek Road employers if sufficient evidencE of demand can be shown. COIIrCLOsl:ONS The study found that there is interest in improved transit service between the California Avenue CalTrain Station and the Stanford Research ParK. A survey of employees at five firms showed significant interest in a shuttle which would provide more convenient connections with train service. The study also found that there is interest in a noun hour shuttle to key destinations outside the Stanford Research Park. Employees expressed significant interest in such a service, and the interest was expressed not only by those who commute by transit but by auto users as well. The interest expressed by surveyed employees if'. improvements to commute hour cor~ections to Cal Train and in a noon hour shuttle indicate that opportunities could be further explored in these areas although this was not within the scope of this Study. Improvements that reduce the wait time for bus-train connections iii • ----~-~-~--------------------...... . -. .., of • G r at the California Avenue Cal Train Station and reduce travel time to work sltes are key to encouraging ~ore employees to commute on C.lTrai~. Availability of noon hour shuttle service to popular ·off campus· destinations ~ill provide an added incentive for employees to leave their cars at home and commute by bus or t.rain. The Shuttle Feasibility Study concluded that i.t is not feasible to replace the existing transit service provided by County Transit between the California Avenue CalTrain Station and the Stanford Research Park with a dedicdted shuttle. The reasons are as .follows. Neither the Santa Clara County Transit District nor Stanford Research Park employers are villing to develop a shuttle bus service as lonq as existing County Transit service is adequate to meet commuter needs. The current transit link between Cal Train and the Reseacch Park provided by County Transit Route 88 and Route 24 is generally adequa~e. Although there are several schedules on Route 24 and one schedule on ROute as ~here wait times for the bus-train connection could be improved l service to the Research Park is relatively direct and there are sufficient trips to provide connections with almost all northbound and southbound trains. For County Transit to abandon the existing routes in favor of a dedicated Research Park Shuttle would dislocate transit service in the area because the routes serve other locations besides the Cal Train Station. County Transit is not interested in providing funding support for a dedicated shuttle route under these circumstances, and a shut.tle would probably ha';e to be funded largely or exclusively by Stanford Research Park employers. Given the current economic climate and the pending regional control measures for traffic and transportation, Stanford Res~arch Park employers are reluctant to embark on an experimental shuttle service without conclusiVe evidence that existing transit service is ir.adequate~ However, the study also concluded that the absence of transit service to Deer Creek Road at the south end of the Stanford Research Park is a potential deficiency, and that shuttle service should be provided at this loca.tion if demand iv c i:::'; '6;i'c'- -;-0... -',.' o~·:, war~ant$. County Transit can operate service with extra Route 24 trips diverted from the Veterans Administration Hospital. Preliminary analysis conducted in the study indicates tnat there may be demand lor shuttle ser~ice. A conclusive determination will be made by County Transit after surveying employees at Deer Creek Road work sites. v ,. 1. I1l'raODtlCrrON The Shuttle Feasibility Study ~as undertaken to determine vhether these is a nead for a shuttle bus connection between the Stanford Research Park and the Cal Train Station at calif~rnia Ave:n'.,le. The purpose of the study was to satisfy the conditions of an Environmental Impact Report filed by the Varian Corporation with the City of Palo Alto to construct a new plant facility a~ Hanover Street and page Mill Road. ~he conditions specified that a shuttle service would be investigated as a mea~s of reducing peak hour traffic congestion in and around the Stanford Research ParK by providing an incentive for employees to co~~ute by Cal'I'rain. As initially conceived, the study focused on improved commute hour transit connections bet~een both the CalTrain Station and the page Mill RClad/El Ca.Jl\ino Real Park-and-Ride lot and the Stanford Research Park. However, the scope ~as later expanded to test the feasibility of a noon h0ur shuttle as well. The study was conducted in two parts. The first part was to survey Stan~ord Research Employees to determine the level of interest in both a commute hour Shuttle service and a noon hour shuttle service, A technical advisor~ committee of Transpor­ tatic!", Coordinators from the major firms was assem:bled to assist iI', ~~eveloping and conducting the survey. The Transportation Coordi."l3tor3 reviewed the survey questionnaire, prepared intro­ ductory letters to e~plain the purpose of the s~rvey to their employees, and coordinated the distribution and collection of survey ~estionnaires~ The second part of the study ~as to determine whether a Shuttle service was feasible. If found to be feasible, operational, management and funding plans would be developed to implement the shuttle~ A key factor in determining feasibility vas whether the Chief Executive Officers of major firms in the Stanford Research Park would underwrite the shuttle. To enable 1-1 ;j' , -."' o CEO's to make an informed decision, service concepts and operating costs were developed for the shuttle and Santa Clara County Transit was consulted to determine how the shuttle concepts would impact County Transit routes. County Transit determined that existing transit service was generally adequate to serve the Stan~ord Research Park and that there ~as no rationale for subs~itutinq a dedicated shuttle O~ significantly expanding existing service. At the same time, soundings by Varian Corporation of Stanford Research Park employers revealed that there was little enthusiasm for funding experimental transit service in the face of an uncertain economy and pending regional transportation control measures. CEO's were never formally consulted about shuttle service alternatives; however, the conclusion seemed plain that a significan~ change from present service would have no support at the present time. As a consequence, a dea~cated Stanford Research Park shuttle in place of the present transit service was found to infeasible. This report is divided into the five sections. Section 2 following the Introd.uction describes the findings of the st.;rvejo' of Stanford Research Park employees~ Section 3 p~esents the alternative service concepts developed to pro-.,1'ide shuttle service at commute hours and at the noon hour. Section 4 describes the evaluation of the alternatives. Section 5 presents the conclusions of the study. 1-2 -.', • ! ~ • --~-----~ ---------~----------- .~ .. 2 • SlltJT'rLZ SURVSY This section presents the findings of an employee survey to gauge the degree of employee interest in a commute hour shuttle bus connecting Stanford Research Park (SRP) to the California Avenue Cal~rain station and a noon hour shuttle connecting SRP to California Avenue, the Town , Country Shopping Center, and University Avenue in Palo Alto. ~ or FIXI)IIIGS 3,326 employees were surveyed at five companies with an employee base of 12,000, giving a response rate of 27%. 2,325 employees expressed an interest in a commute shuttle from CalTraln to SRP. Estimated ridership for such a shuttle ranges from a low of 178 round trips pe= day to a high of 776 round trips per day. Most probable ridership trom a commute shuttle is 317. However, actual ridership will depend significantly on how existing County Tra~sit service to SRP (via routes 24 and se is i~proved. ~S\ of train riders and 82\ of train riders who use County Transit to get to work indicated they would use the shuttle~ Upwards of 154 drive alone co~rnuters intend to use the shuttle. Presumably these individuals will switch to train or bus to take advanta~e of it. Carpool and vanpool users are least likely to use the shuttle~ Fares of 25¢ and 50¢ rank equally as a tolerable cost for a on~-way trip. 1,864 employees expressed an interest in a noontime shuttle. Desired destinations in order of preference were California Avenue, University Avenue, and Town & Country Village. Estimated ridership for a noontime shuttle ranges from a lov of 361 round trios per day to a high of a78 round trips per day. 2-1 ." i t o o Noontime shuttle users express a strong preference !".ot to wai.: more thar, 5-10 minutes for service. Like the commute shuttle fares of 25¢ and SO¢ rar.k eq~ally as tolerable costs for a one-way trip. SORVE! MBTIlODOLOGY The survey was a joint effort by Crain , Associates a~d the companies participating in the Sbuttle Feasibility study. Crain' Associates prepared the questionnaire with the assistapce of a committee of company transportation coordinator54 The companies were responsible for distributing and collecting the questionnaires 4 Five companies participated in the survey: 1. Lockheed 2. Xerox 3. Varian 4. Alza 5. Hewlett Packard Employees 1,000 400 4,000 600 6.000 12,000 The survey instrument ~as a self-administered questionnaire of twelve questions printed on two sides of a legal size sheet of paper. Questions were arranged in three groupG. The first group asked for information about the commute to provi.de background data with which to assess the response to the shuttle questions. The second group began with a brief description of the features of the commute shuttle, followed by questions related to prospective usage, maximum desired cost, maximum desired wait time, and reasons for interest. The third group of quest.ions began with a description of the noon hour shuttle, followed cy a question about desired destinations at noen, prospective usage, maximum desired cost, maximum desired wait time, and reasons f~r interest. A sample questionnaire is contained in Appendix A. 2-2 I I j , , '. ---' . The survey wa~ to be conductad in October J but the Lorna Prieta earthquake on OCtober 17 caused a month delay~ Most of the participating co~panies vere able to complete the survey by October 17. aewlett-Packa::rd was net able to d.istribute the questionnaire until ~fter the earthquake. The post-earthq~ake timing may have influenced the way Hewlett-Packard employees responded to the questionnaire. It ~culd be expected that those who filled out the questionnaire after the earthquake would be more ~avorably disposed to the shuttle option given the vital and prominent role that public transportation played in providing commute service in the aftermath of the earthquak~. The findings show that Hewlett-Packard employees are significantly mere enthusiastic about the shuttle options than employees from th~ other companies, but it is not clear how much is due to the increased interest in public transportation resulting from the e~rth~~ake and how muc~ is due to ether factors~ The survey distribution procedure was designed to ensure that all employees were given an opportunity to fill out a questionnaire. A cover letter signed by the company CEO or other executive officer was attached to the questionnaire, and ques­ tionnaires were distributed through company mail systems to each employee. Hewlett-Packard used a different approach. Due to the larq:e: number of employees and the difficulty of using the company mail system to send a questionnaire to each employee, only small facil:' ::ies -were a~~le to mail a questlonnaire to eacr. employee. At large facilities questionnaires were placed at mail stations with a cover let~er inviting ~ut not directin9) employees to fill out a questionnaire. StlltVl!:Y RlI:SPONSB RAn The response rate from the survey was 27.1\, meaning that of the 12,000 questionnaires distributed, 3,326 {or 27.7%} were completed and returned. The response rate differed considerably 2-3 . ! ----------------- Q £:} by company, as shown in Table 2-1. Lockheed had the highest response rate with 54% of employees completing a questi~nnaire+ Hewlett Packard ha~ the lowest response rate ~ith 14% ~esponding. The low response rate at Hewlett Packard may have been caused by the indirect method used to distribute the questionnaire and the fact that the Cover letter vas in the form of an invitaticn rather than a formal r~que~t. c9"'P any Lockheed Xerox Varian Aha Hewlett Packard 'rAlILIi 2-1 RBSPOlfSll: !IA'l'II: Questionnai:re~ Questionnaires Oistributed Completed 1,OnO S.C .00 1.3' 4.000 1,521 600 271 ~ -ill 12,000 3,326 Response Convers:ion Rate Factor 54.0\ 1.85 34..2\ 2.92 3e.O' 2.63 45.2' 2.21 !.W! 6. S9 2;.6\ 3.62 The response rate gives the proportion of employees ~ho responded ~o the questionnaire. The inverse of the response rate is the factor by which the results have to be expanded to equate to the total employee population. In other ·,.,ord.s if the response rate were 25%, the inverse of 25\ or 100/25 = 4 would be the expansion factor used to apply the survey results to all employees.. Predictions of employee behavior that are based en the opinions of a sample of employees are only as good as the validity of the sample. The smaller the sample the less likely it is to represent the views of the papulatioI1 as a .. hole unless distribution and collection are carefully controlled. Without rigid control over the sample selection, there is no way to control ~ampling error. The sample was essentially ·self selected-in this survey because employees responded voluntarily~ The randomness of the response was controlled to some degree by the use of a cover letter formally r~questing each employee's response. However, Hewlett Packard did nat make the communica­ tion as formal as others did and Hewlett Packard employees ~ere 2-4 • fie .~"'"~ .. ./ ,:~ probably more likely to have filled out a questionnaire for reason~ of personal interest than employees of other companies. Therefore, their responses may not be as representative of all employees as the responses fra~ other firms~ Respondents were asked how they get to work now. The responses show that the commute mode for SRP e~ployees is typical of mid-peninsula suburban commuters: the vast majority drive alone to work. A small number use a variety of other modes including carpool/vanpool, train, bus, motorcycle, bicycle, and walking. Table 2-2 shows the number of survey respondents who commute by a particular mode a full five days per week, that is the confirmed users. Driving alone is by far the most co~on at 82\ followed by carpool/vanpool at 8.5' and bus at 4.B%. TABLE 2-2 COiMO 1& MODI: OF RESl'OND2N'l'S WHO USlI nm S1IHI!: MODB 5 DAYS A WEl:It Mode Number Drive alone 1,991 Carpool/vanpool 207 Train 51 Bus 118 Motorcycle 17 Bicycle 35 Walk ~ 2,429 Percent B2.C\ 8.5 2.1 4.8 0.7 1.4 J....L 99.9\ Table 2-3 shows the distribution of commute mode when all types of comm~te patterns are included. For example, some respondents commute by car one day a week and carpool four days a week. Table 2-2 shows the results as round trips per week rather than individuals to normalize for the use of different modes. 2-5 =,,=r;:::-~--"------------.-.-_.- ... \ , , t o UlILE 2-3 IIZSPONDlm'l'S' !IOOND nIPS PER WZXX BY MODE Drive alone Carpoo1 Ivanpool Train Bus Motorcycle Bicycle Walk No. of Trips 11,885 1,701 449 1,012 174 544 165 15,930 ,.,., ,. :. " Percent 74.6' 10.7 2.8 6.4 1.1 3.4 1.0 100.0\ Drive alone accounts for a slightly smaller share of total trips, and all the other modes have a proportionately greater share. Still, dziving alone accounts for three-~~arters of all commutes of the employees surveyed. The train was used by 127 respondents. Table 2-4 shm.'s the most common times of arrival and departure at the California Avenue Cal Train Station by these individuals. In th~ morning, the 7:45-8:14 period is the most popular arrival interval with 8:00 a.M4 being the Single most common arrival time (not shown). In the evening the 4:45-5:14 period is the most popular departure time and also the average (i.e., 50th percentile or median) depart ure time. Train users typically get to work by taking the bus or walking from the California Avenue Station. Table 2-5 shows the number of respondents using each mode. Of those who take the bus,S, take Route 88 and 8 take Route 24. BuS was used to get to and from SRP by 237 respondents. Most use County Transit Routes 1011 103, 104, and 22. The distribution by route is shown in Table 2-6. 2-6 • c TULZ 2-t "f'RADI OSZilS' ARlUV1L AJn) DllPlUl'1'tlJ<Z rIMEs AT CJU,IrORIIIll AVENUE l.RRIVAL DEPARTURE Interval I:ia.. -'-Int§:rvstl ~ -'- 5:50-6:14 a .ma 6:15-6:44 6,~5-7 :14 7 :15-7:44 7:45-8:14 8: 15-8: 44 8:45-9:15 TOTAL Median interval Modal interval 14 n.o, 2:25-3:14 p.m~ 16 12.6 3:15-3:44 24 18.9 3:45-4:14 25 19.7 4:15-4:44 28 22.0 4:45-5:14 13 10.2 5: 15-5: 44 _7 -U.. 5:45-6:14 127 99.9' 6:15-. :44 After 6 :44 TOTAL 7:15-7:44 Median interval 7:45-8:14 Modal interval TULZ 2-5 !'RllDI l1SZ1\S' MOilB OF '!"RAVEL l!B~1IEBJiI S'l'ATIOl'I AND WOIUt SITE 6 4.7\ 5 3.9 17 13.4 14 11. 0 38 29.9 23 19 .1 13 10.2 6 4.7 -2 ...2.,L 127 99.8% 4:45-5:14 4: 45-5:14 Mode No. of Users Percent Sus Bilee Walle Other Route 22 24 88 101 104 300 304 DB 7F 58 4 52 --2 127 nELB 2-6 Bl1S l1SERS BY IIOOTB No. of Users 39 22 10 82 37 37 13 22 _5 278 2-7 47.9\ 3.3 43.0 5.B 100.0% Percent 14 .0\ 7.9 3.6 29.5 13.3 13.3 4.7 7.9 ~ 100.0% ./'. / .';". A;riv.l/Departure Time Respondents were asked when they normally begin ~ork and end work. Most SRP employees begin work between 6:45 a.m. and 8:45 a.m. and end between 3:15 p.m. and 6:15 p.m. Tables 2-7 and 2-8 show the distribution of arrivals and departures respectively, by half-hour increments. Within the basic commute periods ~he distribution by half-hour intervalS is relatively flat. The median arrival time (the 50th percentile arrival time} is within the 7:15- 7:44 a.m. interval. This in~erval is also the mode of the distri­ bution (the highest value). The median departure time is within the 4:45-5:14 p.m. interval. As with the arrival time, the median interval is also the modal interval, meaning it is the most popular arrival interval~ Inter""al BEFORE 6:45 a~m. 6:45-7:14 7:15-7:44 7:45-8:15 8:15-8:44 8:45-9:14 9:15-9:44 9:45-10:14 Median Group Interval BEFORE 3:15 p.m. 3: 15-3: 44 3:45-4:14 4: 15-4: 44 4:45-5:14 5:15-5:44 5:45-6:14 6:15-6:44 6: 45-7: 14 AFTER 7:14 Median Group rABLI: 2-7 ARlUVAL TIME 7:15-7:44 Number 394 565 588 55) 573 217 49 ---'-2. 3,034 rABLI: 2-8 DEPARTORlI TDIE 4:45-5:14 2-8 Number 216 356 383 368 528 474 351 116 59 __ 8_3 2 1 934 Percent 13.0\ 18.6 19.4 18.2 16.9 7.2 1.6 --L2. 100.0% Percent 17.4% 12.1 13.1 12.5 18.0 16.2 12.0 4.0 2.0 ~ 100.0\ .. --~----------------- .- o Frequency of Use Respondents were asked how frequently they would use the commute shuttle. Nea=ly three-quarters responded that they had no interest in it. The other one quarter indicated they would ride it at some level of frequency. Table 2-9 shows the distribution of frequency of use. 'U.BLZ 2-iJ I'RZQClmCYOF COMHl1'rE SB:O't"I'I& tlSE Freguen):v 3-5 days per week 1-2 days per week More than once/month Less th~~ once/month Never No. of Responses 295 176 193 -ill 2,325 Average Daily -Intended-Shuttle Ose Pprcent 9.2\ 5.5 6.0 7.1 100.0\ The responses from the frequency-ai-use question were converted to daily round trips using the following conversion factors: 3-5 days per ~eek 1-2 days per week More than once/week Less than oncei.-eek (One month ( round trips per week average 1.5 round trips per week average 2 round trips per month 1 round trip per month 4.333 weeks) Using these conversion factors and respondents' frequenc.l'­ of-use responses, it was estimated that the sample population would make 317 round trips per day on a commute shuttle based on their freq~ency-of-use responses. Table 2-10 shows the round trips by company and the rate of use by the sample population. Noteworthy is the high rate of usage by Hewlett Packard employees. 2-9 -,-----~----""""" 'UBIJI 2-10 ZSTDATZO DAILY SIIllT'rLB i!OOND rRIPS BY SAMPLE EMPLOYElE5 Lockheed Xerox Varian Aha Hewlett E'ackard Total Averaqe Daily Round Trip 37 11 104 27 138 317 Daily Round Trips Per 100 Sample Employees 6.9 B.O 6.8 10.0 16.1 Highest Probable Shuttle Ridership for All Employees Average daily shuttle use was facto!'ed up from the su.ntey sample to the total employee population using company factors based on the survey response rate (see page 2-4). Table 2-11 shows the average number of daily round trips that would be made by employees of each company. It should be noted that these values are based on intended frequency-of-user and may not reflect actual usage. It should also be noted that the behavior ot the total employee population may not mirror the behavior of the sample population~ ~ noted above, the Hewlett Packard sample may have yielded a more positive view of the shuttle than is warranted for the company as a 'Whole, and the estimated use rates may therefore be overstated. For these reasons the values below are stated as -highest probably~ use. Ac~ual use will probably be lower. Noteworthy is the particularly high rate of use by Hewlett Packard employees. Train Riders Employees who commute by train are very enthusiastic about the shuttle. Sixty-four percent (64') indicated they would use the shuttle to get from the train station to work. Table 2-12 shows the surveyed train users by frequency of train use and level of interest in the shuttle. 2-10 t o TlUILI 2-U IlIGlIBS'l l'lIO!WlUl DAJ:L ... l<OO1fIl nul'S roa Al.t. 1!MPt.onllS (;;Q&RMY Locltheed ~;:¢. .. vad;m Ai .... n.,wlett packard Total Days pet Week pf :train t1!!e 1 ~ 3 • 5 Total Average C~i1y ~!i)UQd Trips 70 34 279 .2 Wl.ll 1,H9 No. of Train RiAArs 21 1 15 21 .....ll 127 Caily ROQno Trip. Per lQO Si!WJ?l~ tmp!oye"s 70 l5 7Q 103 1;1 No. of l=tiders Wh.o ~olJ.ld tJss Sl",ClUls 1-5 Rays pet W,ek 74.1\ 51.<% 80.0\ 5~ .3\ ~, 640 E;% Many trai~ riders V$e a hus to qe~ from th~ tr~in st~~ion to wo~k+ Sin~e tbey ar~ pr~sumably served by ~~is~in9 ~o~nty ~~~sit $e~vi~eJ their ~~$pOASe to the shuttle is of particular. int.erest ~ Not.ewo:r-thy is the fact. that the}' ar~ .even mox:'e int.et-­ est*o in the shuttl~ than train riders as a vhGie; more than 80t in~!eated they would use the ghuttl~, as shown in Tabl~ 2-13. ',if; . -------~-c ----~. o rAIILI: 2-13 S~ USZ BY BUS-USING ~H RIOZRS All Train Riders Bus-Using Train Riders Total Users Surveyed 127 58 No. of Rl~~rs Who Would Use Shuttle 1-5 Days oer Week 82 Ch~racteris~ics of Would-Be Shuttle Users Current COmmute Percent 64. 6. 82. n Not surprisin-gly., drive alone commuters make up the largest group of would-be shuttle users. Table 2-14 shows that 75\ of e~ployees who intend to use the shuttle now drive alene. This number is not much different from the percentage of drive-alone employees in the full sample~ However., in absolute terms, it represents a significant reduction in solo driving. These same 154 drivers are 7.7% of all employees in ~he sample who drive alone five days per veek. To the extent that the 7.7% reduction will apply to th~ entire employee base, a significant reduction in vehicular travel will results. It is possible that the rate of shuttle use ~il1 not be as high as 7.7% across the board given that survey respondents are probably more enthusiastic about the shuttle than thos~ who chose not to respond, but even a 5% reduction would proouce a significant reduction in use. 2-12 ~---- ;-j '-'-.' '1'A8LlI 2-14 rN'1'ZNDlID SI!11'l"'1'IJI: O"SII: BY DAILY COMNtTrZRS 5 Day per We~k Commuters 'Nho Will Use Commuters Percent of 5 Day Drive Alone Carpooll Vanpool Train Bus Shuttle 3-5 Dal!:~ l2er We!i!k HQ.... per!;;ent 154 75.5 6 2.9 29 14.2 ....l2 -----L.l 204 100.0 Shuttle users' Work Hours 5 Days Commuters Who eer Week. Will Use Shutt~~ 1,931 7.7\ 207 2.9% 51 56.6% 1.ll 12.7\ 542 37.6% Potential shuttle users tend to start ~ork later ar.d end work later than other employees. Table 2-15 shows tne distribution of shuttle users' arrival and departure times in half-hour intervals. The interval in ~hich the median value lies is the same for shuttle users as non-shuttle users, but the interval when the mgst employees arrive (the modal interval) is a balf-hour later. A possible explanation for this difference may b~ that shuttle users are more apt to be white colla~ workers with flexible ~ork hours than blue collar ~orkers with fixed work hours. 'rABLE 2-1S SIW'1"l'Li: O"SERS' WORII: BOOAS ARRIVAL DEPARTURE Interval No. Percent Int-erval ~ Percent. Before 6:45 42 9.4% Before 3; 15 19 4.4% 6:45-7:14 83 18.5 3:15-3:44 46 10.6 7 :15-7: 44 89 19.9 3:45-4:14 54 12.4 7:45-8:14 16 17 .0 4: 15-4: 44 £4 14.7 8:15-8:44 113 25.2 4:45-5:14 61 18.6 8:45-9:14 33 7.4 5:15-5:44 90 20.6 9:15-9:44 6 1.3 5: 45-6:14 49 11. 2 9: 45-10: 14 3 0.7 6:15-6:44 21 4.B After 10 :14 _3 ~ 6:45-7:14 8 1.8 448 100.0\ After 7;U _4 0.9% 436 100.0% Median interval 7:15-7:44 Median interval 4:45-5:14 2-13 .-.... -, Maximum. Fare Respondents asked ho~ much they ~ould be willing to pay to use the commute shuttle. There is an even split between those who would be willing to pay 25¢ or SOC, with both groups accounting for two-thirds of all responses to this question. Enthusiastic shuttle users (i~e., those who would use it 1-5 days per week) are more willing to pay the higher fare of soe. Table 2-16 shows the maximum fare preference of both categories of users. Maximum Fare Free 10¢ 25¢ 35¢ 50¢ 75¢ S1. 00 '1'ABLZ 2-H MAXIMlIM r AlUI !'Oil SKllTTLB USERS lUID I'IUI:QOZNT SIIO'rTLE OSZllS Employees Who Would All Potential Use Shuttle At Shutt.le Y§~rs Least Once a WeeJc N2..:. Percent l{Q..:. Percent 65 7.8' 49 9.0\ 53 6.3 39 7.1 277 33.1 157 28.8 48 5.7 31 5.7 291 3L7 230 42.::' 54 6.4 25 4.6 2.Q. ----hQ ...l.2. ---L2 838 100.0% 546 100.0% Noontime Dest.inations To determine where the noontime shuttle should go, employees were asked where they most commonly go at the noon hour and were given a choice of three locations which a shuttle could serve: California Avenue, Town , County Village Shopping Center, and University Avenue. Half the respondents (49.6-\' indicated that 2-14 '~ .. . 1l" c none of these destinations interested them. The other half were most interested in California Avenue, followed by University Avenue and then Town' Country Village. Table 2-17 shows the distribution of responses among these destinations. TABI.IIi 2-1 7 lIOn POl'tr".AR BOOllTna: DBSTlllArION California A~enue University Avenue ~o. of Responses Percent Town & Country Village H7 433 -.lll 53.2 25.9 J.L.j, 100.0% l,H9 Maximum Wait Time In response to the question, "What Is the MaxirnlJ£ll Time You Would Wait For a Shuttle Bus?-, 91\ of employees checked five or ten minutes. Only a small percentage would yait 15 or 20 minutes, as Shown by the distribution in Table 2-18. 5 minutes 10 minutes 15 minutes 20 minutes Frequency of Use ~ 2-18 IGIXDItIM WAIT :rna: No. of Responses 1,088 1,264 180 --.ll 2,536 Percent 42.5 49.3 7.0 --L1. 100.0% Respondents were asked how frequently they would use the noontime shuttle. Forty percent responded that they had an 2-15 ." / / ._"-- o 0 interest in it. Sixty percent indicated that they ~ould ride it at some level of frequency. Table 2-19 shows the distribution of frequency of use. 'UBLlI: 2-19 !'RltQOlmCY or )lOOIII'I'IJa: S= USE No. of Fre~enc:t Responses P~rcent 3-5 Cays per Week 127 6.8 1-2 Days per Week 572 30.7 More Than once/Month 738 39.6 Less Than once/Month --E2 22. S 1,864 100.0% Average Daily -Intended Shuttle Use- The responses from the frequency-of-us~ question were converted to daily round trips using the same conversion factors shown on page 2-4 for the commute shuttle. Using these contrersion factors, it was estimated that the sample populatio~ would make 361 round trips per day. Highest Probable Noontime Shuttle Ridership For All Employees Average daily shuttle use for the survey sample 'irias factored to create an estimate of ridership for the total population of employees surveyed. As with the commute shuttle estimatas, tne factors were based on the survey response rate at each company. Table 2-20 shows the average number of daily round trips that would be IIl,ade by employees of each company. The same caveats that apply to the Commute shuttle apply here. Round trip values are based on intended frequency-of-use and may not reflect actual usage. Also, the total employee population may not behave the same as the sample population. The values for Hewlett Packard are a particular concern because the response rate was small, and less centrol was exerted over survey distribution and collection. 2-16 o UJlt.E 2-20 Bl:Glll:S'r PIlOlIULZ DAILY ROOND rRJ:PS rOil AI.L EMPLOHE:S Company Locy.,heed Xerox Varian Aha Hewlett Packard Total Total Daily Round Trips 14? 42 322 7? ~ 1,493 Characteristics of Would-Be Noontime Shuttle Users Commute Mode Noontime shut~le users are not significantly different from the sample as a whole. The pe%centage of drive alene cowmuters is slightly less than the overall other modes are slightly larger. mode of potential shuttle users. sample, and the percentages in Table 2-21 shows the commute UBI.E 2-21 COMMOTE MODJ[ or HOOIl'l'DIB SlW'1"1'LE USERS Drive Alone Carpool (Vanpool Train Bus Mcto::cycle Bicycle Walk 5GB 98 48 65 2B 42 ..li 665 2-17 Percent 65.? 11.3 5.5 7.5 3.2 4.9 -L.§. 100.0\ • .. ' .. " --------~------- -~-------. o o N9QDtime Pestination Potential shuttle users choose to go to the same places as the sample as a ~hole. Of the three choices available, California Avenue is the top priority, University Avenue second priority, and Town' Country Village third priority. Destination choice was cross tabulated by intenaed frequency of use to determine if frequency has any effect on choice of destination~ University Avenue and Town & County Village ranked slightly higher ~onq 3-5 day per week users than it did among the total sample and California Avenue ranked lo~er. However, California Avenue was still the clear choice of destination. Table Z-22 shows these findings. rABLB 2-22 LONCB'l'na: SII1ITTIJ!: DI!:SUNArIONS None Intended Frequency California University Town & of the Qf Use Avenue Avenue Country Three Total 3-5 days per week 41. 7% 33.3\ 21. 0% LO% 100.0\ 1-2 days per \ieeJt 47.1\ 30.5\ 18.8\ 3.5\ 100.0\ More than once/month 44. 0\ 27.7\ 15.5% 12.8\ lOO.O\ Less than once/mont.h 29.U 13.6" 8.5\ 48.8% 100.0\ Wait Time The maximum wait times found tolerable to wiJuld-be shuttle users 'Were compared with the responses of the sample as a whole. No significant difference was found. Shuttle users are no more or less likely to want five-or ten-minute service frequencies than non-users. 2-18 • -~---~--~---~---- Maximum Fare Shutt.le users are no different from ~on-userS in their fare preferences~ The vast majority prefer a maximum 25¢ or 50¢ fare, with the number split abvu~ ~~enly between the two. Table 2-23 shows shuttle users' fare preferences. Fare Free 10¢ 25¢ 35¢ 50¢ 75¢ $1. 00 TABU 2-23 PRlD'ZlIIIZD MAXIMtlH PARI: OJ' NOOJI'l'rM& SlI1l'l."1'Ll!! USERS 8( 105 652 10 ~ 677 lOB ~ 1.,810 Percent 4.6\ 5.8 36.0 6.0 37.4 5.0 4.1 100.0% However, employees who intend to use the noontime shuttle frequently have a si9nifica~tly greater preference for the 25¢ fare than infrequent users. Conversely, the least frequent users are willing to tolerate a higher fare than the frequenc userS. The explan~tion of this difference may be as simple as the fact that frequent users see a greater total outlay for shuttle fares and wish to mini~ize the cost of each trip. Infrequent userS, on the other hand, are not sensitive to fare because it is only an occasional expense. Table 2-24 sho~s the different preferences. 2-19 r' , G 2 < • , ·~ .. o rABLII: 2-24 MlIXIHIlK J'ARll PRErllR.l£NCllS BY LEVEL OJ' OS& OF NOOIn'IME SIIO'rTLE More Than than Less Fa:-e J-~ D!lY§ 1-2 Da:l~ QnceLMo. QncelMo. FREE 12.7\ 4.H 3.8\ 4.4\ $0.10 7.9\ 6.8% 5.H 4. 0% $0.25 42.9\ 38.0% 34.4\ 34.1\ $0.35 5.6\ 7.0% 5.6% 5.7% $0.50 23.n 33.9% 40.5% 41. 0% $0.75 4. Sl 6.8% 5.7% 5.7% $1. 00 2.3% 3.4\ 4.3% 5.1\ 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.Do Use of Commute Shuttle by Noon Shuttle Riders Employees who intend to use the noontime shuttle are also likely to use the commute shuttle. Further, a strong correlation exists between frequency of use on one shuttle and frequency of use on the other. Forty percent of emFloyees who would use the noontime shuttle 3-5 days per week will also use the commute shuttle 3-,5 days per week. A similarly strong relationship exists for users at other levels of frequencies. Table 2-25 shows these findings. 'rJUU.I; 2-25 USB OF C<N«J'rlI: SIIOTTU B. NOON SIItJ'I'TLB IUDBRS 3-5 DIIXlI(Wlt • 1-3 Oaxs fWk. , C!LcelMo. < On<=eiMo. ~ !::It.1Il .~. '-5 day:;!!.,II:. u.:n !I.n 5.o, 4.H 3!t. 1, :00.0. Sh-.:t.tl. 1-2 clays/wk. li.U U.H !I.S' 5.7' 5:. . 9~ "-JO.O" > OI'le./lXl. "1. !141 _.n ll.H So.n '3.H 100.0t < one_lIDO. 7.311 2.U 4.0' 21.1\ '4." 100.0' Never 4.H loU l.U 2.0' !II. 2. 100.0' 2-20 .- -. Two mlmDerS were produced. by the survey analysis which provije a starting point for analysis of sh~ttle ridership: 1,46~ and 1,4~) -highest probable-daily round trips fo~ the commute shuttle and tne noontime shuttle respectively. Several assumptions are b~ilt into these nu~rs which make them optimistic, hence the use of the qualifier -highest p~obable.~ the purpose of this section is to establish an estimated range cf ridership, 5tartinq with t.he lowest a:nount likely to ':Jccur, and then to establish a most probable level for design purposes. Commut e Shutt Ie There are three reasons why commute shuttle ridership is likely to be lower than the -highest probable estimate of 1,469 daily round trips. One reason is that the total employee base of 12,000 employees may not use the shuttle at the same rate as the sample employees~ A second reason is that the ~ntentions of the sample employees are not likely to equate to actual shuttle use~ A third reason is that Cou~ty Transit already provides service on the routes that would be served by a shuttle ~ If emploJo'ees are not willing or able to use existing service, which is relatively convenient, it is questionable whether they will use a shuttle. Table 2-26 shows a range of r~dership estimates which ir.corporates discounts to reflect the lawer ridership ex?ec- tat ions indicated by these factors. The estimates are given for each company to allow ridership to be related to company location and thereby to the location on a potential shuttle route. The -lov· ridership shown in TaDle 2-26 is based on a subse~ of the employees in the su~vey sample who said they would use the shuttle 3-5 days per week. The subset is individuals who commute 3, 4, or 5 days per ~eek by the same mode. It is assumed that these individuals will only make three (3) trips per ~eek, or an average of 0.6 trips per day. Thus there are four discounts built into the ridership estimate; 2-21 " , ~ 2-26 II:S1'DQ.ftIl DAILY ROONO TRIPS FOR COHM!I'1'I: SIlUTTLZ Low Most High Estimate 1 Probabl~2 Estimate 1 Lockheed 18 37 70 Xerox 6 11 3( Varian 79 lOt 279 Alza 14 27 62 Hewlett PackarD -il. 138 ill 178 317 776 1 Subset of sample population, un expanded to total employee base. Assumes shuttle users are 3, 4, or 5 day commuters by the same mode, and those who intend to use the shuttle )-5 days per week. Assumes 3-5 day intended use equates to 3 days actual use. 2 Subset of sample population, unexpanded to total employee base. Assumes conversion of survey responses to average daily round trips as follow: 3-5 days per week 4 round trips per week average 1-2 days per week 1.5 round trips per week average More th~~ once/week = 2 round trips per month Less than once/week = 1 round trip per month COne month = 4.333 weeks) l Survey response expand&d to total employee ~ase. Packard expansion factor discounted from 6.99 to of tour other companies). Assumes conversion of responses shown above (2). 2-22 Hewlett 2.4 (average survey ~ .... :r 1. 2. 3. 4. o o Ridership is based only on the survey sample, une~panded to the total employee base of 12,000.- Individuals who intended to ride only 1-2 days per ~eek O~ less frequently are dropped. Individuals ~ho use multiple modes to ge~ to wo~k are dropped. The range w3-5 day· is assumed to mean 3 days of use. The MMost Probable-ridership estimate is also based on survey responses alone, unexpanded to the total employee base of 12,000. The subgroup used in this estimate was not as restricted as that used in the lov estimate. ~l frequenc~es ot use were cQunted, including -Less than once a month,· using the conversion factors shown in the table and on page 2-9 of this report. There was no disc~unt for multimode commuters; all survey respondents wbo ~tated they would use the shuttle vere included. The -high-estimate is similar to the figure of lJ 469 given above. Survey results are extrapola~ed to the entire employee base of 12,000 using the expansion factors given on page 2-4. The exception is that Hewlett Packard ridership has been expanded by a sma~~er factor to account for sample bias. Instead of using the 6.99 factor based on the survey response rate, a 2.4 factor was used which is the a7erage expansion [actor of the other four companies. These ridership estimates have to be taken in the context of existing County Transit service between the Caltrain station and SRP... c ...... 'trently, some 60-15C Caltrain riders use Rout.e 24 and Rou.te 88 each day to qet to and from SRP. Some of these riders stated in the survey that the would prefer a shuttle to county Transit service, but by no means all WOUld. Thus, it is not clear hov existing ridership and eseimated shuttle ridership should be mixed to prodUCe a COmbined total. The answer probably depends on how *The theo~y behind USing the unexpanded sample is that only employees vho are genuinely interested in the shuttle filled ~ut the questionnaire, and those who did not fill out the questior~aire ~ould nat use it. 2-23 • ./ . much more convenient service will become if shuttle service is instituted. Ngop Shuttle Factors that effect the ridership estimate fer noontime shuttle use are the intentions-versus-use issue and the expansion factor used to extrapolate the survey findings to the total employee base. Table 2-27 gives a high and low estimate for noontime shuttle use. The low estimate is based on the intentions of survey respondents alone, unexpanded to the total employee base of 12,000. As with ~he commute ridership estimate, it is assumed that individuals who take the time to fill out a questionnaire are the most likely users, and that nan-respondents are not interested. While this ignores other reasons why employees r.eglected to respond to the survey, it provides a conservative criterion for a lo~-end estimate .. TABU: 2-27 ICS'i'DQ'rBl) DAlLY nIPS FOIl 1l00llTIMJ! SIlU'1'TLIC Low High Estimate Estimate Lockheed 76 1(7 Xerox 14 42 Varian 118 322 Alza 33 77 Hewlett Packard 121 290 Total 361 878 The high estimate is based on an expansion of the survey responses to the total employee base of 12,000, similar to the procedure used to general the estimate of 1,493 daily noontime shuttle trips given above. The difference is that a smaller expansion factor ~as used for the Hewlett Packard estimate to 2-24 o account for apparent sample bias in the survey. Instead of a factor of 6.99 based on the Hewlett Packard survey response rate, a factor of 2~4 ~as used which is the average of the responses from the other companies. 2-25 This section presents routing and sched~lin9 concept alternatives for a Stanford ~esearch Park (SRP) shuttle. The objective of this analysis was to develop operating schemes fer serving potential demand fo~ shuttle service indicated by the Shuttle Survey conducted in Eall 1989. The schemes provide a oasis for discussion with County Transit and Cal~rain about methods for enhancing service between trains and the SRP. The schemes also s~ow the cost of operating shuttle service, so that the pote~tial benefits can be measured against cost. The Shuttle survey focused on commute hour service to Ca.lTrain, and noon-hour service to popular ·off camp-us· destinations. Planning commute hour shuttle service is complex because County Transit already provides good service from the CalTrain Station to SRP on Route 24 and Route 88~ This report shows how better service could be provided either by (1) rep~acing County Transit routes with a shuttle bus or (2) by supplementing County Transit schedules with -gap-fill-schedules to remedy the worst bus-train connections. A third optior. is to supplement County Transit route coverage by offering shuttle service to the southern extremities of the Research ParK, for example to Deer Park Road. Noon-hcu~ shuttle options are relatively straightforward. Three places are popula~ lunch hour destinations for Researc~ Park employees: California Avenue, dawnto~n Palo Alto, and Town , Count~y Village shopping center, in that order. Various routing schemes were developed for serving those destinations singly or in Combination. Routing schemes for each shuttle alternative are described. Annual operating costs are based on an hourly cost of S25 per 3-1 -.. ' .-'~---- ~,. o o vehicle service hour and assumptions about operating speeds, frequency or service, route length, cycle times and daily hours of operation. ~ or I'ntDIRGS Table 3-1 shows the cost of all commute and ncontime shuttle alternatives, individually and in combiuation. The annual cost of a commuter shuttle would range from $38,ODO to $311,000 dependinq on the level of service provided. The lower cost buys only supplemental schedules to County Transit existing Route 24 and Route 88 service. The higher cost would enable replacement service to be provided by CaiTrain at lO-minute frequencies during peak periods on weekdays. The annual cost of a noontime shuttle ranges from $28,000 tc $133,000. The lower cost would buy service operating at 30- minute intervals to downto~n Palo Alto via Alma Street, but would not include Town' Country Village. The higher cost 'alould enable service to be provided at lO-minute intervals along California Avenue to Town & Country Village, and to downtown Palo Alto. If both commute hour service and noontime service are operated, annual cost could be as high as $444,000. The $440,000 alternati\re assumes replacement ot County Transit service by a shuttle at commute hours, and nOO:J.time service to California Avenue, Town , Country Village and downtown Palo Alto at 10- minute intervals~ Existing BUs-Train Schedule Coordination The primary objecti .... e of the commute shuttle is to improve the link between SRP and the CalTrain Station at Calif~rnia Avenue so that more employees will commute on CalTrain. Figure 3-1 shows the County Transit routes operating between the 3-2 :;:.- ,/,.--:;. , /,'-" ,< '"<~ \:--,"-' >' , ·,-~:_:c " • ---• n i . ~ ----0 .~ "5' ~ I ! •• ~ -. -" --: .i o. --.;,: .-----! ~ • .. :;; -. 0 :0;; ~~ ;;;;;:: --· <~ .-• iz · o. .-.-;~ &i · . -.. .. · ". .. .. : >.~ · .. .-'-:; -.. ---. .---~~ • Oz · .. --· .% " ~~ ~~ -, • " .-" i~ ~ • • Sa- • n . -.. --0 § ;:i : =::: .. ~~ -. f! • ~i~ ~ ~~ " " ~;::: •• ::~ .. .. -IEh ~ ~ t " .. 'z · 0-.. " iAO .-i 1: " ::.: -" · ... 0 --o 01-.- Il ~.s !~ .. -; :::; .. -. · a1C ! !' -. ., <0 .. ----~III ~ -. · '-." " .. :~ 3"-•• • ~::: ~2 --· ;~ i. --. .. .. .. " ., · .. .-j. .. . . .. 8' <. i~ -. .. -. ~ Zt '" --•• z. •• zz •• i; ;:z 2:;: ~~ ~::: .. !-.c • ! .!;: • • .. ~ E_ o. ~-.. .. -. 0-J. ; •• .. .. .. ,S :: ";P • · ~ ! " ~. " ~ . .. <. B • .. .; .-~ :-I. I • .. .. '" o! .. 0.: -. '. • . , .. .. • • .. ,i:!e •• ,i:! • 0-<- ". ~" !~ 3-3 -~------------,-~ ------.------------ /' " o LEGEND / ••••• i Route 304 ••••••• Route 24 r"". Route 88 , .. zz Route 88 "- (Scheduled Trip< Only) COYOTE HIll ROAD EXISTING COUNTY TRANSIT SERVICE 3-4 "'--- .' -.' ,/ .. A f' CalTrain Station &nd~RP! Route 24 and Route 88~ Coordination of County Transit. schedules to Cal'rrain schedules is reasonably qood, as indicated by the wait times for connections at the Cal Train Station shown in Table 3-2.* In the morning co~~ute hours, for example, train passengers arriving at 7:14 have a 4- minute wait for the Route 88 bus and a 1-mir.~te ~ait for the Route 24 bus. However, passengers arriving at 7:28 a.m. on Cal train have an Il-minute wait for Ro~te 88 service and a 19- minute wait for Route 24 service. In the afternoon, cc~~uters takin9 trains at 4:25 p.m., 4:55 p.m., 5:23 p.m., and 6:25 p.m. have good service on one or the other of the two routes. Ho~ever, commuters taking the 5:05 p.m. train have to arrive at least 15 minutes ahead of time to make a connection. In general, Route 88 is better timed to meet train schedules than Rou~e 24. Shuttle Design Objective The objective for designing a shuttle service was to improve the number of good -meets-between train and bus, in other wo~ds, to achieve the highest possible number of good con~ections. To determine the practical upper limit for good connections, various shuttle frequenci~s were matc~ed with the Caltrain train arrival and departure schedules. Frequencies of 10, 15, 20, and 30 minutes ver~ tested, ~ith 10 minutes being the most fre~~ent service that can practically be supplied. The results are sho~n in Table 3-3. A shuttle operating at la-minute frequency .... ·ould meet all trains with a maximum wait of 7 minutes in the morning and 10 minutes in the afternoon. None of the other operating frequencies can achieve this level of good meets. Table 3-4 summarizes the rate of good meets for each of the four shuttle frequencies tested and compares them with pxisting County Transit service at ~hree ~ait time standards: 5 minutes or less; 10 minutes or less, and more than 10 minutes. The shuttle performs better than Route 88 at every level as long as *For purposes of this evaluation, a wait of 5 minutes is considered good, a wait of 6-10 minutes is marginally adequate, and a wait of more than 10 minutes is unsatisfactory~ 3-5 • ~~c._------__ " i i , , , ! Rout.. II~ 'Trail1 5ch~ul. C-Clo~lc:w1:!1e A.M. m ." '" .,. .,. ,]2 ,,. . " <5, 7.2 107 714 n8 ". 732 734 n, 7S5 BOO ,,, ." . ,. 132 83' 8JS J~S P.M:. ••• ." .2' OS U. H. 4S' ,., 5ao 573 52' 52' 54' .52 '5' ••• 62' .,. OJ, .os c D&LI: 3-.1 ~ t:. ~ :u"Z'IIImII' ~ 'D.AIbI:t'l .urD eJU.'fIADI au-s Scbedule Trair. lIoOJte n ~!.(lckwh. 5J.!! . '" 71. 73' m BO • '" .,. n, <42 <S. '18 ". 554 620 , .. Rey;e H m 742 ,OS 9;34 30 ., . 417 .., <14"1 505 517 '" S52 ." 3-6 .... --._--­ '. Rout:~ .. 5 5 , • 5 S • 11 7 , 5 • 11 3 1 0 Walt 'l"il'lle s to ." Sll., to Train Rou-=._ 2 • Route 88 Flout;. " SO " " .. Jl :0 7 H 10 , :0 3 10 2 , 12 " • • , , ; , 15 " , • 7 , 10 , " • • , • • , • " Z6 .~. I ~ (') ' ...... ". "AlIL& 3-3 lIlU!' !'nIII:S ~oa i'RADI-ro-SII'O"1'TLE/ I 811tn'nJ1-ro--ftADI U ALi'BR>IAn SIIU'rl'LIl IIEAl>WAYS a .. """, """"W),, RE.AOWA'f ilEAOWA~ A.X. 10 IIIJ.ru,lt.s JS IflinlJtl!'s ~o ,",1~~oe5 )0 i!'Iif!:ut..s \ C&1Tc~1Z1 Sb.uu.le N.11mt.lI!:~ Sbuttle Kinu'tes Shut.t.le l'tirHlt.e, Shut.t l@ MLnl,ltes Calif St..tieD Boa "elt. for .". Wait f?r ,,, Wait. '0' ,,. w,,':'t fc:- A.rrivil ,!iae !2:tl!:!rt: Idn ~ ,geeartu:n Sbutt.lt'! De:eaF.l.lre Shuttle Deoarture Shut.tle '" '0' • 'OS • '" 14 60. • <l' '15 , .,0 1 " " ". ." , , , , 632 '" 3 m , '" , ." , <50 '" , 650 0 m , " <5, 70' 10S l 105 l 715 U 705 , n. 11. 1 '" • 1 " n, "5 1 7 7 1 132 735 l 3 l 3 ". 14' 1 1J:5. 1 135 1 73S 1 75. 155 0 150 10 7S5 0 " ,0' 8" l .0' , a l.5 13 ,OS , 8" ." 1 '>0 11 11 1! 93' ." 3 3 3 , 8" '35 1 8" 1 835 '!I 3': 1 P.". 10 _i!lute!l ~5 minute:!! 20 :Tllm.::::es 30 m.it::utes C.l~ra1.tI Shuttl. Hinutes Sbut~le .MitHlte.s Shl'tt.:'e Hi~l,;'; • .s Shuttle Mir'H.lte!5 Calif St.atioD Btl:! Wait to, B" "ait '0' ,,, Wa.i.t: tor ,,, tisit. fo:: ~2:!ISl:!rfII u_ ArrIval 'J'r:l~1:! A:-r~v.l Train .... rrillal '!rill ~.., Arti-"a! Trolin .00 355 5 .00 .. O~ • 352 40' 20 <1, " .25 '2' 0 415 1C 420 422 4J5 lJ .,0 18 ... ..5 3 ... 3 440 , " .55 "5 0 ,. 15 4S2 3 ,0' '" 0 5.0 5 SO: , II 523 51:1 , 515 • '20 3 :'2.(' 52' '" 0 10 5 515 11 5JC' " ,46 5<, 1 '45 1 '40 , 14 552 '55 , 1 12 55' , 600 ." ,. ,.0 0 <00 0 , '" '" 10 615 10 ," , r.~2 , ". 6" 3 13 , , 6" 10 '" 15 . ., ." 0 .. , • "0 23 101 S55 , , .. , 700 652· , 7O. '0' 3 " 3-7 o '!'ABLJI 3-4 COMPAiliSON or SIWTTLZ SERVIClI AND COON'l'Y 'tRANSI'!' BY .D.CZ!I'1'AGII or Mli:ETS IIn'SIN WllI'l' 'l'IMB: I.IHI'l'S Length of Wait 5 minutes 10 minutes More than or less 0= less lQ m~nut..e:il: Shuttle 10 minute headway 89.3\ 100.0% 0.0\ 15 minute headway 60.7% 89.3% 10.7% 20 minute headway 60.7% 75.0% 25.0% 30 minute headway 53.6% 67.9% 32.1\ County Transit Rte 8S 50.0% 75.0% 25.0% Rte 24 14.3% 46.H 53.6% 3-8 o '-. frequency is 2Q minutes or less, and better than Route 24 no matte~ what the service frequency 4 Measured against wait the wait time standard of 5 minutes or less, the ~huttle could meet the standard 89\: of the tiMe at lao-minute frequency, 61\ of the time at 1S-minute frequency, and so forth. County Transit Route 8a achieves this standard only 50% ot the time and Route 24 achieves it only 14% of the time. When the wait time standard is raised to 10 minutes or less, the shuttle fully meets the standard at 10-~inute frequency 4 The conclusion from this analysis is that a shuttle operating at lO-minute or 15-min~te frequencies would provide clearly superior Cal Train connecLions. Four alternatives were developed for improving the Cal Train­ SRP connection: 1 ~ Replacement Service/High Cover-age. This alternative assumes that an arrangement could be made whereby Shuttle service would replace Route 24 and 88 to CalTrain during the commute period. More extensive coverage of the Research Park would be provided than now. 2. Replacement Service/Similar CQverage~ This alternative is the same as Alternative 1 except that SRP coverage is close to that of existing service. 3. Supplemental Service/Expanded Coveraae, This alternative assumss that county Transit service would remain in place and that the shuttle would provide coverage of poorl.:r~ served areas of SRP, for example Deer Park Road. 4. Supplemental Service/Schedule ~GaD Fill-, This alterna­ tive would till gaps in the existing County Transit schedule to remedy the worst bus-train connections. All alternatives assume that shuttle service would operate from 6 a.m. to 10 a.m. and from 4 p.m. to 7 p.m. weekdays. Annual operating costs, and the operating assumptions on vhich they are based, are shown in Table 3-5. Running times fo~ individual routes are expressed as high and low estimates since no detailed planning has yet been done and precise running times are not known. 3-9 -, . -. / o TULIi: 3-' .S'!l"DA'l"Kf) C\MiIWfE SBtrl"'l'LB ANN"CAL OPERA.'%'ntQ COS'l"S A'%' ALftiQU.'1'rvlI BU.DKAYS ALTERNAUVE 1 ~ REPLAcna:.'I'T SERVICE pUGH COVERAGE): JI.oU'TE fl BeadNay.:s Mileage Run Time Vehlele.s .eqd !M.inu!i:!§! !Mile!lll High ~ !igh .!&!! 10 1.3 3i.S 29.2 • 3 lS 1.3 36.5 29.2 3 2 ALTERNATIVE 1: REP1.ACEMEN't SERVICE (HrGH COVERAGE): ROUTE 12 Eead:w~Y3 (Minut@s) 10 15 ALTEMA'l'IVE Beadways OOnutes) 10 15 Mileage (Mile.!) 6.92 6.92 34 .5 34.6 27.1 21.7 2, REPLA.CF.MeN'T SERVICE Mileage Run Time (Hile!!!} Rigt: Low 6.65 33.3 26.6 6.65 33.3 26.6 Vehicles Reqd !ligb ~ • 3 3 2 (SIMILAR COVERAGE) Vehicles Reqd !igh ~ • 3 3 2 AL'niUlATIVE 3: SOPPI.EMEN'rAL SERV1CE (EXPA."IDED CO·.!ERAGE) Headway., (Minutes) 10 15 Mileage !Miles) 6.68 6.68 33.4 33.4 26. i 26.1 Vehic 1e:! F.eqd High ~ • 3 3 2 AL'fERNAl'IVE 4: SUPPLEMENTAL SERVICE (SCHEDtru "GAP FILL") 8eaclway~ Q:Unutes} 2. Mileage (Mile;; } 6.65 33.0 Venielu Reqd High 1£!:. 27.0 2 1 Ar~ual Operating Cost (S2S/V5R) Righ ~ $l5S~ 763 S1H,-495 $116,822 576,330 ~Jm~al Ope~ating Cost {$2S/VSH, liSA ~ $154,955 $116,216 Annual Operating Cost {S2S/VSHi High Low 5154,381 $115,766 $1l3~ 666 $75,779 Annual Ope~ating Cos~ (S2S/VSR) High ~ $154,445 $115,83( Sl13.705 $1'5 I S03 Annual Ope~atir.g Cost ($2S/VSH} s..i.s.h ~ 537,931 ANNeAL OPER. COS'f: • OF VEHICLES*,25/VSS*[AK BRS(2.5+1/2 OF CYCLE TIME) +PK RRS (3+1/2 OF CYCLE !IHEI]*25S OAYS/YR 3-10 .... ~. -, • --.-~--------------------- 8 Followi~9 are descriptions of route alternative. r' "­alignments Alternative 1: Replacement Service lHigh Coverage) for each The High Coverage option is shown in Figure 3-2. The shuttle would operate on two routes: one which serves the northeastern area of SRP and the other which serves the southwestern area. The advantage of having two routes is to minimize circuity while providing high coverage. This is the most costly option in that it requires two separate routes and up to eight vehicles. Operating on lO-minute headways, shuttle se~~ice would cost $228,000-$310,000 annually. AJternativ~ 2: Replacement Service (Similar Coverage) The replacement option (Figure 3-3) covers the areas currently served by County Transit's 88 and 24 rout~s (with the exception of segments of California Avenue and Hanover Stree~) ~ At lO-minute headways this service would have an annual cost of $114.000-$154,000. Alternative 3: Supplemental Service (Expanded Coverage) ~bis alternative provides service to areas no served by County Transit. The route (Figure 3-4) runs from the calTrain Station to Page Mill Road and then loops around Deer Creek Road to Coyote Hill Road. At lQ-minute headways this service would cost the same as Alternative 2, $114,OOO-$154 r OOO annually. Alternative 4: Supplemental Service (Schedule ~Gap Fill·) This alternative is designed to meet trains which County Transit does not currently meet promptly. The shuttle would operate on headways varying between 21 and 40 minutes, depending on particular train schedules. The Shuttle buses would be routed the same as Alternative 2 (Figure 3-3). The schedule for the Shuttle is shown in Table 6. Only one vehicle is required to operate this schedule, therefore this option has ttle lowest cost of all the alternatives ($38,000-$77,000). 3-11 • , o COYOTE HIll ROAD fiGURE 3-2 ALTERNATIVE 1: REPLACEMENT SERVICE (High Coverage) 3-12 F!GURE 3-3 ALTERNATIVE 2: REPLACEMENT SERVICE (Similar Coverage) 3-13 FIGURE 3-4 ".' . . o ALTERNATIVE 3: SUPPLEMENTAL SERVICE (Expanded Coverage) 3-14 "'-------" . , A.M. PEM CdTuili Shuttl. C.allf statioQ au. Arrinl Time o.partl.l.re ,., 6,. ." '" <3, '" . ,. 7" 7., '" 12. '32 132 ". 755 '" 'Q2 . ,. 8<7 • n .,. n:sLl: 3-5 SJ«J1"'f'L3 .. GAl' .. :ILL· Wl:'I'8 CUS"rOM mu.J)WAYS Minl..t. ... beforo. arrl~,~ of next: Ca.lIrain Sbtl .. " Calif 5tatiorJ !U!.!. lIl!!. !..Y..! De'Oarture Tim"! • , " 1S , ., , • " 'DO , , , . 13 5 n 425 1 , " , .. ,. • 7 .55 , ]I 14 • 7 10 2. , • StlS , , ,. '" 52' " • 3 546 3 11 I • 55, • l 2 10 I 0 6<. '" '" '" All heoilciwo!:ya .xe 251 lIlilIutes 1I)le.ept:: "159 27 mit: 5{)0 J6 mLn S.(Q 40 min 1HZ 33 m.in 3-15 .... ':-:~ ... • P.~. 'LAR M.inute, ",~i>;. befQre Shut.tle t.r ... l.~ departu!"e on: ." Shtl e. " ~ m ~ lIl!!. '50 l> lJ 42. 1 • • ,. , , " 5 , SOC S " " " , , " 1 • 54 • , 10 , " :6 :is 20 , • '" " , , 19 • , .. , l 25 26 . . i~-i: .--~, / .. o The primary goal of the Noontime Shuttle is to provide quick service to California Avenue, Town and Country Village and University Avenue. Three alternatives w~re de~eloped. One of the alternative operates on Califc~nia Avenue, two ~f the alternatives provide service to TO·llm , Country Village, and all three operate to downtown Palo ~lto. T~o routes are used to serve the Research Park to minimize the number of stops along the route, improve operating speed, and reduce route circuity while providing good coverage. Table 3-7 sho~s the operating COSL of each alternative and the route miles, running times, vehicle requirements and headways on which the cost is based. Alternative 1: Downtown Palo Alto via California Ave. and Town & Country Village The shuttle survey shewed that California Aven":.le is the most popular noontime destination of SRP employees surveyed. This alternative operates on California Street a~ far as the Cal Train station, and then operates to downtown Palo Alto on £1 Camino, stopping at Town , Co~~try Village. Figure 3-5 shows the route alignment. Operating cost ranges from $59,000 to 5133,000 depending on service frequ~ncy provided. Alternative 2: Downt~wn Palo Alto via Town & Country Village This alternative is designed to provide rapid service to downtown Palo Alto but avoid the lengthy detour via California Avenue. The shuttle is routed from Page Mill Road along E1 Camino Real to University Avenue with stops at California Avenue and Town and Ccunt~y Village (Figure 3-€). Operating cost tanges from $5~IOOO to S117,000 ar.nual1y, depending on se::-vice frequency provided. AL "rERNA'l' IVE IlOOtt f1 a.&d""'Y3 fKinute.sl 10 15 20 30 SOU"I'E 12 .8'eadway:s lMiputes) 10 15 20 30 ALTERNA1'IVE ROO'rE fl Heac1ways (Migute,,} 10 15 20 30 ROO'l'.E ,.2 , --~ . rA8LB 3-7 J:Sf'~ HOOlf SB'CT'l"LZ &DUAL Ol'ERA'l'ING <:osrs lU' ALrDNArIVB I!EAD1IIAYS " CONN'l'QWN VIA CALIrORNI1t .. AVE AND TOWN , COUNTRY Annu&l Operating CO$t Hileaqe >= Time Vehicles Reqd (S25/vSH} ~l!!s! Sigh ~ High 1.9..!! Sigh ~ !lI.02 45.1 36 .. 1 5 • $75,130 $S8~ 667 9.02 45.1 36.1 4 3 .$60,584 $44,000 !J. 02 45.1 36.1 3 > $45~ 438 $29,334 9 .. 02 45.1 36.1 > , $30,292 $29,334 Ann~al Operatinq Cost Kileaqe Run Time Vehicles .... qd ($2S!VSH) rKiles:l ~ !&!!: Bigh !&!!: Sigh 12!! 10.19 51..0 40.8 • 5 $92,740 S14~517 10.19 51.0 40.8 • 3 $61,a27 .$44,746" 10.19 51.. 0 40 .. B 3 3 .$46,:310 $44,746 lC.19 51.0 40.8 2 2 S30~ 913 $29,831 2, DOWNTOWN VIA TO~ ~ COUNTRY ~ .. ual Operating Cost Kileaqe "un rime Vehicles Reqd ~S25/VSH) (Kilepl ~ ~ High l£! High !:.2..! 8.43 42.2 33 .. 1 5 • $74,946 $58.166 8.43 42.2 33.1 3 3 $44,968 $43,624 8.43 4.2.2 33."'1 3 2 $44..-968 $.29,083 8.43 42 .. 2 33.' > 2 $29,978 $29~ Oe3 Annual Operating Cost Beadway:s Kileaqe Run Time Vehicles Reqd (S25(VSH) fl:f.inutes' oo1es) lU9:!! !&!!: High k9..!! High kQ.!! 10 t.6 48.0 38.4 5 • $76,500 559.160 15 9.' 48 .0 38.4 • 3 $61,200 $H,370 20 9.6 48.C 38.4 3 2 $45,900 $29,580 30 9 .• 41! • 0 38.4 2 2 :530,600 $29. sao 3-17 nBlJI 3-7 (Continued) ALTERNAUVE 3: DOWN'rOWN ClRECT vu. ALMA 5l' ROlnE f1 Eeadwap Mileage Ron IJ.1!nutesl {Hiles} High 10 B. E"! 34 . ., 15 B.68 34.7 2. 8.68 34."1 3. 8.68 34.1 ROU'l'E .2 Headway" Mileage Run 'MinU1:el!!ll OOlesl Sigh 10 '.85 39.4 15 !J.S5 39.4 20 9.85 39.4 30 9.85 3~. " Time ~ 26.0 26.0 26.0 .26.0 Time ~ 29.6 29. , 29.6 2~.6 Vehicle" Reqd Si:rh Lo. • 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 Vehicles Reqd R~ Lo~ • 3 2 2 3 2 2 1 o Annual Op@rating Cost (S2S/VSHj High ~ $56~378 $42,400 .$43,784 $28,261 S2!J,189 $2-8,261 $29, IS!; $14,133 Annual Operaeinq Cost (S25!VSH) Righ ~ $59 .. 373 $H.5::~ $29,686 $29.686 $-12.960 $29,640 $28,'40 .514,320 OPERA3ING COST: f OF VEHICLES*$25/VSH·2HRS~(1/2 OF CYC~ TlME).2550AYS/YR 3-la ~ .• "<1;$1 FleURE J-.S NOON SHUTfLE ALTERNATIVE 1: Downtown via California and Town & Country Village 3-19 .~ ... ~ ... ---------.---------------,----... o o FIGURE 3-6 NOON SHUTILE ALTERNATIVE 2: Downtown via Town at Country Village 3-20 ""-::-:.-:--.. ------.------:---:-o-_~ -, ~-: · .,'-.. -.\: /' ,;.::; .. :,.,.--, ""'-' "..-> ~~. -" Alternative 3: Downtown Direct via Alma Street The objective of this alternative is to provide the lowest cost service to downtown Palo Alto. The shuttle operates on Alma Street instead of El Camino Real (Figure 3-7) and no service is provided to Town' Country Village. Annual operating cost ranges from $2S,OOO to $85,000 depending on frequency of service provicied. 3-21 ---------_._- o o FIGURE 3-7 NOON SHUTILE ALTERNATIVE 3: Downtown Direct via Alma 3-22 ,- ,..;: . -~-~ .----~----- / r, 4 . SlI"O'r'rLE xY1LtIA'I'ION This section describes the process used to evaluate the alternatives presented in Section 3. The evaluation process involved defining evaluation criteria, evaluating t~e alternatives, revising th~ alternatives based on the preliminary conclusions, and developing a recommended alternative. ~y OF FINDINGS Current transit service between the California Avenue Cal Train Station and the Stanford Research Park is generally adequate to meet the needs of Research Park employees currently commuting on Cal Train. Although there are some gaps in the Route 24 schedule, the Route 88 schedule is generally well coordinated with train schedules. The major deficiency in County Transit service is the absence of service t.o firms located on Deer Creek F.oad. Improvements should focus on this area. Stanford Research Park employers are not likely to provide funding for a shuttle unless the existing transit service is found to be inadequate. There is little enthusiasm for replacing ·free~ County Transit service with a costly shuttle system if service improvements are marginal. There is unlikely to be support for a noon­ hour shuttle because it is not essential to the work commute. county transit is not receptive to discc·ntinuinq service on Route 24 or Route 88 in exchange for shuttle ser".rice because service provided in the Research Park is an integral part of overall service provided by these routes. There ~ resources for providing service along Deer Creek Road. County Transit will consider shifting selected Route 24 transit trips from the Veterans Hospital to Deer Creek Road to serve Deer Creek Road employers if sufficient evidence of demand can be shown+ 4-1 • -~------------------------------ .. o o The shuttle alternatives were evaluated 5.ccording to the following criteria: The 'Willingness of County Transit to augment or replace eKisting transit service; and The willingness of SRP employers to provide funding support. The support of County Transit was deemed es.sent-ial to the development of the shuttle. County Transit provides the current service to SRP from the Ca.lifornia Avenue Cal Train Station on Routes 24 and 88. Any scheme to improve service ~ould have to either replace or supplement these routes. Whether County Transit would be willing to make changes and how extensive the changes would be was the primary focus of the evaluation. The kind of challqes County Transit would be asked to make to implement SRP shuttle service include the following: Either adjust e&isting transit schedules to better coordinate with northbound and southbound train ar~ivals and departures or replace existing local routes with a dedicated shuttle serving SRP exclusively and providing optimum schedule coordination with trains. Provide funding support for the shuttle equivalent to the level at which current local routes are funded. Expand transit service to operate in unserved areas of SRP or provide funds to operate a privately provided service to these areas. The support of SRP employers is also important to the development of the shuttle or to equivalent improvements to current transit service. Unless County Transit is able to fund the improvements, employers will be called upon to provide financial sUP90rt. ~-2 . " ". / KVlU.OA'l'IOli PROCZ9S The evaluation was accomplished in a s~ries of meetings during the Spring and Summer of 19~O that included Varian, the City of Falo Alto, County Transit, and the consultant. Much of the evaluation centered aroun~ the ability and willingness of County Transit to improve the transit link between Cal Train and the SR? The process was driven by an understanding tha~ resourceS for providing improved shuttle service are scarce. county Transit does not have the resources to add service in the Research Park l and there was an increasing realization that SRP employerS lIIo1Jld not fund improven:.ents unless a strong case could be made that the existing service was inadequate. The result was that the service alternatives were narrowed to a single no-cost plan that County Transit could support and that ~as felt to be acceptable to SRP employers. SRP employers were never formally brought into the evaluation precess. ANALYSIS OF ALftlUIArIVES Replacement Service Alternatives Two alternatives were designed to replace County Transit service with a dedicated shuttle serving the Research Park from the Cal Train Station. One offered the same service coverage as the current County Transit routes. The other offered expa~ded service coverage in the Deer Creek Road area. Both were designed to provide better schedule connections with train arrivals and departures than Route 24 and Route 88. Replacing Route 24 and Route BB service with a dedicated shuttle to the Research park is not in t.he interest c,f COU;1ty Transit~ Both routes serve other parts of the County Transit service area besides the Research Park, and the rOutes would have to be entirely revised if this segment were discontinued. County Transit enthusiastically supported the concept of providing additional coverage of the Research Park offered by 4-3 • -----------~---'-------- :_c .. o o Altern&tive 1 (-Replacement Service -High Cov~rage·) Much of the remainder of the evaluation was devoted tc determining how SllCh service could be provided. Supplemental Service Alternatives The supplemental alternatives provide for a new transit operation in the Research Park to supplement the service supplied by County Transit4 One alternative was aimed at adding coverage in the Deer Creek Road area; the other alternative ~as aimed at improving schedule connections between bus and train by filling a gap in the current schedule. county Transit supported the idea of adding coverage to Deer Creek Road. Much of the evaluation focused on how this could be accomplished with existing transit resources rather than bringing in a new operator at additional expense. Filling gaps in the current transit schedules as proposed in Alternative 4 (·Suppl~~ntal Service/Schedule 'Gap Fill'-) was found to be beth impractical and unnecessary. Employing an independent operator to provide a few trips to fill scattered gaps in County Transit schedules would be expensive and probably unacceptable to employers because of the expenses involved. F.ea:r:ranginq Route 24 and Route 88 schedules to eliminate the gaps is impractical because other scheduling requirements drive these routes. What flexibility there is has already been used to improve schedules. ~he difficulty of filling gaps in County Transit schedules and the cost of providing supplemental service refocused atten­ tion on the quality of the existing bus-train meets. A consensus developed that, with the exception of a single schedule, Route 88 provides good connections with trains in both directions. Route 24 has a number of schedule gaps which require a ~ait of more than 10 minvtes to make the bus-train connection. However Route 24 is secondary to Route 88 in. serving the Research Park. The conclusion was that the existing service is adequate for the 4-4 • need,s of most commuters, and that while improvements would be Made, they would be costly and the ratio of benefit to cost ~ould be quite love Noon Service Alternativas Several schemes were devised for providing noon-hour service. Different combinations of shuttle routes and service frequencies were developed to create four alternatives. The evaluation of the noon-hour alternatives indicated that they were much lower priority than the commute-hour service. Commute-hour service is essential for getting to work; however, noon-hour service is regarded as secondary in importance. County Transit does not have resources to provide such a service, and it would have to he privately provided if it were operated at all. The understanding of employers' inter~st in transportation improvements was that a noon-hour shuttle would not be viewed as high priority because of its secondary importance to the work commute 4 For this reason, the noon-hour shuttle concept was dropped from consideration. Conclusions The conClusions that emerged from the evaluation of alternatives were as follows: Current Route 24 and Route 88 service is reasonably effective at,providing a link between the CalTrain Station and the Research Park. There is no reason to replace County Transit service with a dedicated shuttle because -current schedules serve reasonably well the needs of existing commuters. discontinuance of the Research Park segment of County ~rar.sit routes would disrupt service elsewhere due to the integral nature of the routes. -expanded coverage of the Research Park could be provided wit~out disrupting existing service. 4-5 ·' -_.'- ~,., .. ~;r • o o Expanding coverage to the Deer Cree~ Road area in the south end o~ the Research Park is a valid alternative. In addition to these conclusions, there was an understanding that, if out-of-pocket costs vere involved, Research Park employers would only support a no-cost or low-cost improvement. There was also an understanding that the marginal improvement in service and the potential ridership resulting from the improvement would have to he high in pro~rtion to the cost. COOlIn 'rRAlfSI'l' SERVICE ro DEEi'. CREEIC llOAD The evaluation process reduced the shuttle alternatives to a Single valid option: expanding service to Deer Creek Road. The benefits of this option are several: It would ensure that CalTrain connection is provided to the entire Research Park rathe~ than to selected portions. It could be provided independentl~{ of ser .. ~ice to the rest of the Research Park so there -would be no need to alter existing service. Further, it could supplement existing routes by adding more service on streets that are already served. It could be provided at low cost if operated by a private provider or at no cost if operated by County T~ansit. Available Resources From Route 24 County Transit may have a no cost option for providing service to Deer Creek Road in the form of extra service provided on Route 24. Currently Route 24 operates ten ~eekday trips direct to the Veterans Administration Hospital from the Cal Train Station, four in the morning peak period and six in the evening peak period. These trips are made possible by the extra time available from express routes operated to the Research Park in the morning and the afternoon. 4-6 • i L l'i'-, (":") The proposal u~der consideration is to discontinue extra service to the Veterans Administration H<')spital and operate it instead to Peer Creek Road. The round trip distance is similar so approximately the same number of trips could be p~o?ided. Table 4-1 shows the current schedule and two alternative sChedules tor the Deer Creek Road service. County Transit's condition for switching service frem the Veterans Administ.ration Hospital t.o Deer Cr~ek. P.oad is for ridership to equal or exceed the current route. Table 4-2 shows the boarding$ and ali9htings for four morning trips to the Veterans Administration Hospital. Only 16 riders alight at the hospital. If at least 16 riders would ride Route 24 to Deer Creek Road, the changeover WQuld be worthwhile. Estimating Demand A two-step process was devised for determining whether demand would meet or exceed the 1£ riders per day needed to rationalize service. The first step ~as tc determine the employee population on Deer Creek Road and to esti~at~ the number of employees who could use Cal Train for part of the work commute. The se~ond step was to survey employees at each of the Deer Creek Road work sites to determine their likelihood of using Ca:Train and Route 24 shuttle service to get to work. The results of the first step are described below. The second step has yet to be accomplished. County Transit plans to conduc~ the survey and determine potential ridership. The employment population of firms located on Deer Creek Road is shown in Table 4-3. Approximately 1,10 a emplo)'ees work at the four work Sites. Potential Cal Train corr~uters were esti­ mated by identifying employee residential locations by zip code and then assigning a ~robability to each zip code based on hDW close it is to the CalTrain line. Abo'.1t 160 employees 'Were iden­ tified as potential CalTrain users by this process. This number should be viewEd as the cutside limit of potential ridership because of the variables that affect co~~ute decisions in general and the particular factors that enter into using the train. 4-7 o o 7:21A "rdp '1:42A %'dp 8 :05A "rrip e :341\ Trip All Trip!! On/Off/LD QnJOff Ii;;) :Jn/C~f!LD On/Off/LD On/OftfUl Calif . Depot 1/0/1 1/0/1 9/0/9 10/0/10 21/0/21 £1 cami.no F/S Calif. 110/2 0/1/6 4/0/H .5/1/25 Page kill F/S El Camino 1/0/3 1/0/2 2/1/15 4/1/28 .Hewlett Packard clans Page Mill OP Ballsen 0/2/1 011/1 0/3/5 0/4/11 OnetH Page Mill HiS Hanover 0/0/18 Page Kill MD Banover 0/4/1 n/l/IO 0/5/13 rage Mill F/S Peter Coutts 0/1/9 0/1/12 Porter F/S Page ~ll 0/1/0 C/I/S 0/2/10 Porter Me Page Mill 0/t/7 n/l/' Hillview F/S Porter 01215 0/217 Hillview lID Porter Miraru.1a f'/S Hillview 0/1/0 1/0/8 VeterAnS Hospital .!!L.ill .!!L.ill OIlLO °l':/O CL!l/g TOTAL 31310 21210 10/10/0 16/1610 31/31/0 4-8 NOrth Bound train., 601a. 618 630 650 11. 727 73. 755 824 3~4p • 25 .55 525 600 625 rABLlt 4-2 CCUZII'r ANI) ALrEP.NATIVZ JlOQ'm 24 SClIlmULII:S I'JlON C&I.I1'ORNIA AVENTl'E c:u.n.u>r SU1'IOH Route South Rou.t.e 2. Bound 2' S;;:nrren~ lit. 1 Alt. 2 ~ Current ~ 552a 632 702 72h. ,22a 732 7G2a '59a 72la '122a 802 605a 829a. 832 834a 742a 905 805a 759a 806a 834a 829a 836& Rout.e Route 24 2' Current ~ Current ~ 40o:lp 347 347 347p 347 .. a 447 ... 417 417 505 502 44' 44. 523 517 517 517 517 546 535 544 552 SH 552 619 612 605 552 615 512 620 6H 4-9 ~ 73€a e06a 836a o ~'-3 PO'nIITUol. cu.'1'l\.U1I ~ U OAR Cl\EU I\Ol\I) Jl:KPI.OYl!lIS imel!2~~~ Syntex Corporation US Geoloqical Survey Hewl<>tt pac1car6 (13495 Deer Creek Road) Hewlett Packard ['3500 Deer Creek Road) TOTAL Location ~mal2~f:eS )72 169 275 -ill 1.102 4-10 ,~--->. < "If . . :)j:4R;',: , ( PQ~eDt~al l~\lmb~r 25 16 47 ...1l 159 ~arrr:!;~n User:! Percer:.t 2:: TQtal 15% 9 1, 1.2. 14% ,r'~, ., -_. The 160 Deer Creek Road employees who might use CalTrain consti~ute the ridership for a Route 24 shuttle. In all probability only a fraction of this number will actually rider calTrain and use the shuttle. However, there is a reasonable chance that at least 16 one-way riders per day could be garnered from this group. A more definitive conclusion awaits t~e findings of a survey of employees by County Transit. Con~lusion Transit service from the Cal Train Station to Deer Creek Road appears to be a prac~ical possibility. County Transit can operate up to ten trips per day using extra trips now assigned to special Veterans Administration Hospital runs on Route 24. These trips could be switched over to Deer Creek Road if it is deter­ mined that potential one-way ridership is greater than the 16 riders per day usinq Route 24 fro~ Cal Train to the Veterans Hospital~ County Transit will base this determination on a survey of Deer Creek Road employees. 4-11 ". -.; , o 5. CONCLOSIOJIS The study ~ound that there is interest irt improved transit service between the California Avenue Cal'I'rain Station and the Stanford Research Par~. A survey of employees at five firm~ shoved significant interest in a shuttle which would provide more convenient connections with train service. The study also found that there is interest in a noon hour shuttle to key destinations outside the Stanford Research Park. Employees expressed significant interest in such a service, and the inte~est was expressed not only by those who commute by transit but by auto users as veIl. The interest expressed by surveyed employees in impr~vements to commu~e hour connections to Cal Train and in a noon hour shuttle indicate that opportunities could be further explored in these areas although this was not ~ithin the scope of this study. Improvements that reduce the vait time for bus-train connections at the California Avenue Cal Train Station and reduce travel time to work sites are key to encouraging more employees to commute on CalTrain~ Availability of noon ho~r shuttle service to popular ·off campus· destinations will provide an added incentive for employees to leave their cars at home and commute by bus or train. The Shuttle Fea.sibility Study concl"Jded that it is Qot feasible ~o replace the existing transit service provided by County Transit between the California Avenue CalTrain Station and the Stanford Research Park with a dedicated shuttle. The reasons are as follows. Neither the Santa Clara County Transit District nor Stanford Research Park employers are willing to develop a shuttle bus service as long as existing County Transit service is adeq~ate to meet commuter needs. Tbe current transit link between CalTrain and the Research Park provided by County Transit Route S8 and Route 24 is generally adequate. Although there are several schedules on Route 24 and one schedule on Route 5-1 • '';- 1 !. • >. t ", I " • 8S where wait times for the bus-train connection could be improved, service to the Research Park is relatively direct and there are sufficient trips to provide connections with almost all northbound and southbound trains. Foz County Transit to abandon the existing routes in fa .... ·or of a dedicated Research Park Shuttle wO\lld dislocate transit service in the area because the routes serve other locations besides the CalTrain Station. County Transi~ is not interested in providing funding support far a dedicated shuttle rcute under these circum.stances, and a shuttle would probably have to be funded largely or exclusively by Stanford Research Park employers. Given the current economic climate and the perlding regional control measures for traffic and transportation, Stanford Research Park employers are reluctant tc embark on an experimental shuttle service without conclusive evidence that existing transit service is inadequate. However, the study also concluded that the absence of transit service to Deer Creek Road at the south end of the Stanford Research Park is a potential deficiency, and that shuttle service should be provided at this location if demand warrants.. County Transit can operate service with extra Route 24- trips diverted from the Veterans Administration Hospital. Prelirodnary analysis conducted in the study indicates that there may be demand for shuttle service. A conclusive dete~ination will be made by County transit after surveying employees at Deer Creek Road work sites. 5-2 ."