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HomeMy WebLinkAboutStaff Report 2603-6166CITY OF PALO ALTO Retail Committee Regular Meeting Wednesday, June 03, 2026 5:30 PM     Agenda Item     3.Economic Development Activity Report June 2026 Staff Presentation Economic Development Committee Staff Report From: City Manager Report Type: ACTION ITEMS Lead Department: City Manager Meeting Date: June 3, 2026 Report #:2603-6166 TITLE Economic Development Activity Report June 2026 RECOMMENDATION Staff recommend that the Economic Development Committee receive this Economic Development Activity Report for the month of June 2026. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This June 2026 Economic Development Activity Report presents information on the City’s retail landscape, business district updates, Employee Reports, and business openings/closings. BACKGROUND The Economic Development Committee, established in 2024 (under the name Retail Committee) and continued in 2025, is a Council Ad Hoc committee that follows the California Brown Act procedures. The Committee provides a regular forum for business and community stakeholders to engage with Council members on implementation of the City’s economic development initiatives. The Economic Development Committee makes recommendations to the City Council on economic development and business vibrancy efforts, such as additional business support, proposed University and California Avenue improvements, and citywide retail zoning code changes, to name a few work plan efforts. At the January 24, 2026, Council Retreat meeting1 on values and priorities the City Council reached consensus on adopting a 2026 Economic Development priority titled, “Enhance Business Vibrancy” and renamed the Retail Ad Hoc Committee to the Economic Development Ad Hoc Committee, reflecting a broader focus on supporting business districts in Palo Alto. This 1 City Council Retreat Meeting Agenda: https://recordsportal.paloalto.gov/WebLink/DocView.aspx?id=85283&dbid=0&repo=PaloAlto&searchid=c7ff9802- 2ad6-4705-a142-e2246d02dd70&cr=1 priority emphasizes continued engagement with business districts and the hospitality sector through proactive outreach, collaboration, and partnership to strengthen the city’s overall business environment. ANALYSIS CoStar Information California Avenue Business District Expressway on the South, Park Boulevard on the East, and El Camino Real on the West side. The map of this is shown as Figure 1. Business District per the Q1 2026 report from CoStar, an increase of 1,146 square feet from 18,145 square feet a year ago. Also, a decrease of 29,471 square feet from 48,762 square feet in Q1 of 2022 as the high in the previous ten years. University Avenue Business District Downtown University Avenue Updates On April 29, staff from various departments met with the Downtown University Avenue stakeholders to discuss the potential of an Entertainment Zone Ordinance for the closed portion of Ramona Street, Public Safety in the Downtown, and University Ave Streetscape Project update. It should be highlighted that the downtown stakeholder group would like to continue thinking about the possibility of an entertainment zone ordinance in Downtown University. The Police Department presented new efforts underway in the downtown area, including the addition of a dedicated patrol officer. This enhancement was made possible through organized retail theft grant funding awarded to the department. Public Works staff also provided a brief update on the total project cost and engaged stakeholders in a discussion regarding their interest in continuing the project. On May 18, staff brought forward a waiver of the Downtown Business Improvement District (BID) assessment fees for FY 2027 on the City Council’s consent calendar, which was approved by the Council. Staff will also engage Downtown stakeholders in discussions to determine how to proceed for FY 2028. On April 21, staff met with California Avenue merchants to provide an update on the discussions from the April 16 Architectural Review Board meeting and to continue conversations regarding the proposed outdoor activation program and bicycle lanes on California Avenue. Many businesses expressed support for the proposed standards and provided feedback during the discussion. On May 4, the City Council approved the second reading of the Entertainment Zone Ordinance for the car-free portion of California Avenue. The ordinance will go into effect in June 2026 to support California Avenue activations. The Palo Alto Recreation Foundation, in partnership with the City and other community organizations, will kick off the California Avenue event series on May 28th from 5-8pm on the Car Free Portion of California Avenue. The series is expected to include six monthly events between May 2026 and October 2026 to help activate the street and support the Entertainment Zone. Economic Development staff monitor employment data to identify growth sectors, emerging workforce trends, and informing policy and investment. Employment data is a key economic activity indicator because it illustrates if the economy is expanding or contracting. The following summarizes a portion of the memo prepared by Stephen Levy of the Center for Continuing Study of the Californian Economy on the California Employment Development Department’s (EDD) employment data (Attachment A).  The number of Palo Alto jobs increased by approximately 3,000 between Q2 2024 and Q2 2025. Palo Alto’s workforce totaled just over 100,000 jobs in Q2 2025 (including self- employment trends). While the trend today consists of adding jobs, after the pandemic Palo Alto lost roughly 15,000 jobs through Q2 2024.  The pandemic exacerbated the work for home environment, which peaked in 2021 with approximately 15,000 jobs locally. However, the number of Palo Alto jobs that were worked from home has been on a steady decline at fewer than 8,000 jobs in 2024 though it remains far above the pre-pandemic level of around 3,000 in 2019.  The largest employment sector in Q2 2025 was Health Care and Social Assistance (e.g., non-government hospitals, medical services, nursing homes and social assistance) in Palo Alto with just over 25,000 jobs. This was followed by the professional, scientific and technical services sector (e.g., tech-related services and legal, accounting and architectural services) with over 21,200 jobs and the Information sector (e.g., web hosting and data services) consisting of over 13,800 positions.  Palo Alto’s unemployment rate in February 2020 was roughly 2.2% but increased to over 4% after the pandemic in 2021. The 2026 unemployment rate is just less than 4%, which is similar to the pandemic unemployment percentage height.  Over 90% of Palo Alto businesses have fewer than 20 employees. EDD data includes information on the number of firms by number of employees. In terms of Palo Alto’s larger employers, there were 13 businesses who had more than 1,000 employees in Q1 2020. In Q2 2025, there are now 9 businesses who employ more than 1,000 people.  Mr. Levy’s memo includes data comparing jobs, population, and housing. Historically, Palo Alto has been home to many jobs, but the trends illustrate a declining ratio of jobs relative to the population. For example, the jobs/population percentage decreased from 1.69 in 2020 to 1.47 in 2025, the jobs/households ratio decreased from 4.28 in 2020 to 3.67 in 2025, and the jobs/housing units ratio decreased from 3.95 in 2020 to 3.39 in 2025. Business Openings/Closings Through a separate report, staff are also able to track all businesses that apply for a Certificate of Use and Occupancy. This report allows Economic Development staff to connect with businesses as they begin navigating the development process. This includes upcoming openings like Bistro Demiya (407 Lytton Ave), Rikyu (121 Lytton Ave), and Fireclay Tile (261 Hamilton Ave). In addition to the information previously included, staff have identified other notable business activity. Yutori at 3375 El Camino Real hosted their opening in April 2026. The Pro hosted their grand opening on May 12 at 541 Ramona Street. Also, Zingster‘s located at 220 University Ave opened for business on May 15th. Staff are also tracking expected closures. As of the writing of this Staff Report, an anticipated business closure includes Provident Credit Union located at 2390 El Camino Real #110. No additional funding is needed at this time for the information provided in this report. The City’s Economic Development and Retail Vibrancy efforts may result in changes to revenues, which will be incorporated into future projections and budgets as appropriate. Stakeholder engagement is a critical component of the City’s economic development function. Economic Development staff continue to meet and connect with business stakeholders through individual conversations, monthly meetings with business districts, and through the monthly Business Connect Newsletter. This is not a project under CEQA because it is a continuing administrative activity under CEQA regulation 15378(b)(2). Attachment A: Summary of Recent Job Trends in the City of Palo Alto : Ed Shikada, City Manager 1 CENTER FOR CONTINUING STUDY OF THE CALIFORNIA ECONOMY 365 FOREST AVENUE 5A • PALO ALTO • CALIFORNIA • 94301 TELEPHONE: (650) 814-8553 www.ccsce.com Alex Andrade Assistant to the City Manager Economic Development Manager City of Palo Alto Dear Alex, This memo summarizes trends in jobs in Palo Alto using data acquired by the City from the California Employment Development Department (EDD) and includes other data requested by staff. The memo was prepared by Stephen Levy at the request of and in consultation with Alex Andrade, Palo Alto’s economic development director. The Center did this work on a volunteer basis with no compensation. Principal Results Total Jobs Palo Alto added jobs between the 2nd quarters of 2024 and 2025. This is in line with recently released data for the Bay Area and Santa Clara County. The city added nearly 3,000 jobs and had just over 100,000 jobs in the 2 nd quarter of 2025 including self-employment trends. Total Jobs Q2 2024 Q2 2025 Change Payroll Jobs 95,394 98,302 2,908 Self Employed 2,144 2,144 0 Total Jobs 97,538 100,446 2,908 Source: EDD and ACS EDD reported government jobs for only 2023, 2024 and 2025 so the analysis below analyzed trends for all payroll jobs except government jobs as self - employment was virtually the same during this period. After rising between Q2 2019 and Q1 2020 (pre-pandemic), Palo Alto jobs declined by roughly 15,000 through Q2 2024 before rising in Q2 2025. In comparison, the Bay Area lost 87,000 jobs during this period while Santa Clara County added 4,000 jobs. 2 Work From Home The ACS collects data on workers with jobs in Palo Alto that work from home. These jobs are also included in the payroll data reported above. The number of Palo Alto jobs that were worked from home has steadily declined though it remains far above the pre-pandemic level. Work from home is self-reported as the primary method of getting to work. The decline in work from home means employees spend more days in Palo Alto where they can spend money on retail and dining. Largest Industry Sectors in 2025 The largest sector in Palo Alto was Health Care and Social Assistance, which includes non-government hospitals, medical services, nursing homes and social 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 2019 2021 2022 2023 2024 Worked From Home 3 assistance. Next was professional, scientific and technical services that included tech-related services and legal, accounting and architectural services. Information consists primarily of web hosting and data services. Government includes federal, state, county and local government jobs including school districts. Accommodation and Food Services includes hotels, restaurants, cafes and bars. EDD cannot provide data on industries within these categories or data by zip code within Palo Alto without violating confidentiality rules. A guide to sub-industry categories is included in the notes. Jobs in Q2 2025 Health Care and Social Assistance 25,144 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 21,258 Information 13,846 Manufacturing 7,029 Government 6,620 Accommodation and Food Services 5,277 Finance, Insurance and Real Estate 4,840 Retail Trade 3,709 Unemployment Rate The data below shows the Palo Alto unemployment rate for February starting with the last pre-pandemic month in 2020 through February 2026. The data are estimates based on historical relationships to the county data. The Palo Alto rate is lower than the national, state and Bay Area rates but higher than the city rate between February 2015 and 2019 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 February Unemployment Rate 4 Companies by Number of Employees The EDD data includes information on the number of firms by number of employees though industry detail is severely limited by confidentiality rules. Other information collected by the city may help in identifying the names of firms with a large number of employees. The EDD data is complete for all industries combined. Companies by Number of Employees 250-499 500-999 1000+ Q1 2020 27 8 13 Q2 2023 24 6 10 Q2 2024 24 6 9 Q2 2025 29 9 9 Job, Population and Housing Comparison Given the recent interest in the relationship between jobs and housing, the data below is shown to provide context for continuing discussion. The population and housing data is from the California Department of Finance (DOF) from the 2020 Census and annual estimates as of January 1. The jobs data above was used for the calculations of jobs relative to population and housing. The trends all point to a high but declining ratio of jobs relative to population in the city. Population, Housing and Jobs Data 2020 2023 2024 2025 2026 Households 26,677 27,030 27,121 27,363 27,576 Housing Units 28,904 29,285 29,383 29,645 29,876 Population in HH 67,683 67,499 67,700 68,328 68414 Person per HH 2.54 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.48 Jobs 114,096 103,370 97,538 100,446 2020 2023 2024 2025 Jobs/Population 1.69 1.53 1.44 1.47 Jobs/Households 4.28 3.82 3.60 3.67 Jobs/Housing Units 3.95 3.53 3.32 3.39 5 For comparison, the Bay Area 2025 ratios were .58 for jobs in relation to population and 1.52 for jobs in relation to households. Notes Data for the number of payroll jobs were provided to the city by the California Employment Development Department (EDD). Jobs on the number of self-employed residents comes from the American Community Survey (ACS) published by the Census Bureau and the same source provides data on Palo Alto jobs held by people who primarily work from home. The ACS data is self-reported by a sample of residents. The ACS data was not available for 2025 so the self-employment 2025 estimate on page 2 assumes the same level as in 2024. Data on city population, households and housing units is published by the California Department of Finance (DOF). The payroll jobs data comes from form DE9 used by employers to report employment and payroll on a quarterly basis. It is considered a complete count and is the same data used to report national, state and county job trends. Final data are published with a 3-quarter lag and the latest data available when these analyses were done is for Q2 2025. The total job estimate for 2020 was developed by adding the 2025 estimate for government jobs to the EDD estimate of payroll jobs and ACS estimate of self - employment. The file EDD provided to the city for Q2 2025 contains data on companies by number of employees and payroll data in addition to the jobs data. EDD required data to be reported as confidential if disclosing it could identify the name of a firm. This occurred in many cases for data on the size of firms. In the files sent by EDD government jobs are called public administration. A detailed list of the sub industries within the major industry categories shown in this memo can be found at naics.com. June 3, 2026 Alex Andrade Economic Development Manager Ruth Carias Economic Development Specialist Economic DevelopmentActivityReportJune 2026 Economic Development Committee www.PaloAlto.gov/business 1 June 3, 2026 Retail Property Metrics Q1 2026 •Average Annual Asking Retail Rent $84.22/sf (or ~$7.02/mo), an increase from a year ago •Current Retail Vacancy Rate is 13.4% as of Q1 2026, a minor decrease from a year ago •Approximately 86,807 sf of retail available, down from 92,110 from a year ago •(2,648) square feet of Net Absorption over past 12 months Downtown University Ave All data provided by CoStar www.PaloAlto.gov/business •Average Annual Asking Retail Rent $56.28/sf (or ~$4.69/mo), a decrease from $60/sf (or ~$5/mo)a year ago •Current Retail Vacancy Rate is 5.4% as of Q1 2026, slightly up from a year ago •Approximately 19,291 sf of retail available, down from high of 48,762 in Q1 of 2022 California Avenue 2 TITLE 40 FONT BOLD Subtitle 32 font June 3, 2026 Notable Retail Openings and Departures www.PaloAlto.gov/Business Expected/Upcoming Openings •Rikyu (121 Lytton Ave) •Yutori (3375 El Camino Real) •Zingster's (220 University Ave) •La Corneta (324 University Ave) •Bistro Demiya (407 Lytton Ave) •Fireclay Tile (261 Hamilton Ave) Departure •Provident Credit Union (2390 El Camino Real #110) 3 TITLE 40 FONT BOLD Subtitle 32 font June 3, 2026 Business District Updates www.PaloAlto.gov/Business Downtown University Ave •Through stakeholder engagement meetings; •Staff provided an updated presentation on the University Ave Streetscape total project cost and engaged stakeholders in a discussion regarding their interest in continuing the project. •Staff discussed the FY 2028 Downtown Business Improvement District (BID). California Ave •Thursday Live Ribbon Cutting – May 28th •Next Thursday Live event: Thursday, June 25th from 5PM to 8PM; the Entertainment Zone will be activated during the Event. 4 TITLE 40 FONT BOLD Subtitle 32 font June 3, 2026 Employment Data www.PaloAlto.gov/Business 5 Employment Data •After the pandemic Palo Alto lost roughly 15K jobs through Q2 2024. Workforce totaled over 100K jobs in Q2 2025. • Palo Alto jobs increased by approximately 3,000 between Q2 2024 and Q2 2025. • WFH peaked in 2021 with approximately 15K jobs locally. Steady decline to fewer than 8K jobs in 2024. Largest Employers – Q2 2025 •Health Care and Social Assistance - over 25K jobs. • Professional, scientific and technical services - over 21K jobs. • Information - approximately 14K jobs. • Over 90% of local businesses have fewer than 20 employees. • 13 businesses had more than 1K employees in Q1 2020. Q2 2025, 9 businesses employ more than 1K people. June 3, 2026 Housing, Population, and Jobs www.PaloAlto.gov/Business 6 Jobs, Population and Housing Thank you! Alex Andrade Economic Development Manager Alex.Andrade@PaloAlto.gov Ruth Carias Economic Development Specialist Ruth.Carias@PaloAlto.gov 7