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HomeMy WebLinkAboutStaff Report 2603-61644.Preliminary Information on the City of Palo Alto's (City) 2025 Urban Water Management Plan (2025 UWMP) (DISCUSSION: 8:35PM – 9:00PM) Late Packet Report added, Staff Presentation Utilities Advisory Commission Staff Report Report Type: NEW BUSINESS Lead Department: Utilities Meeting Date: March 31, 2026 Report #:2603-6164 TITLE Preliminary Information on the City of Palo Alto's (City) 2025 Urban Water Management Plan (2025 UWMP) This will be a late packet report published on Thursday, March 26, 2026. Item No. 4 Page 1 of 9 9 4 6 1 Utilities Advisory Commission Staff Report From: Alan Kurotori, Director Utilities Lead Department: Utilities Meeting Date: March 31, 2026 Report #: 2602-6022 TITLE Preliminary Information for Discussion on the City of Palo Alto's (City) Upcoming Draft 2025 Urban Water Management Plan (2025 UWMP) RECOMMENDATION This item is for discussion, and no action is requested. Key updates to the City’s Upcoming Draft 2025 UWMP are being presented to the Utilities Advisory Commission (UAC) for review and feedback. Staff will return to the UAC in May 2026 with the Draft 2025 UWMP for a recommendation to Council to adopt the 2025 UWMP. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY As part of the water planning process for urban water suppliers in California, Palo Alto is required by state law to submit an Urban Water Management Plan (UWMP), which includes a Water Shortage Contingency Plan (WSCP), to the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) every five years. UWMPs are required by statute to report specific information about water demand, water supply, demand management activities, alternative water supplies, anticipated shortages during dry periods, and contingency plans for addressing those shortages. The City’s UWMP supports its long-term resource planning to ensure that adequate water supplies are available to meet existing and future water needs. UWMPs are not intended to predict future demand but rather as a planning tool to ensure adequate supplies and demand management strategies to meet future demand based on development plans. Palo Alto’s UWMP does not change Palo Alto’s water rights1. UWMPs are useful to cities as well as to the state in terms of providing a framework to review water reliability. The City’s UWMP housing development assumptions align with its Regional Housing Needs Allocation (RHNA), which— under state law—requires the City to plan for its fair share of future housing across all income levels. 1 Palo Alto has a contractual right to 16.58 MGD of drinking water from the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission during normal years called the Individual Supply Guarantee. Item No. 4 Page 2 of 9 9 4 6 1 Staff is in the process of updating the City’s 2025 UWMP, which must be adopted by City Council and submitted to DWR by July 1, 2026 to remain eligible for DWR-administered and other state grants and loans. The City’s current UWMP3 (2020 UWMP), was adopted by City Council on June 7, 20214. Long-term water demand projections: Total water demand is projected to decline by 5% over the 25-year forecast period. Water reliability assessment: Based on current projected demands of wholesale customers including Palo Alto (see Table 1 in the Analysis section), San Francisco Public Utilities Commission (SFPUC)’s supply modeling shows water reliability projections for two alternative future supply scenarios: 5 in multiple dry years when compared to water supplies in an average year. In other words, RWS Wholesale supplies could be reduced by up to 48% in a multi-year drought. Water Shortage Contingency Plan (WSCP) – Water Use Restrictions: Water use restrictions have been updated to reflect measures implemented during recent droughts and new state legislation6. 3 City of Palo Alto’s 2020 Urban Water Management Plan: https://www.paloalto.gov/files/assets/public/v/1/utilities/uwmp/2020-uwmp_final-submission-to-dwr.pdf 4 Resolution No. 9964: https://recordsportal.paloalto.gov/WebLink/DocView.aspx?id=61418&dbid=0&repo=PaloAlto&searchid=f8133868 -b0ea-40c9-b3d6-32a145228f0b 5 Unless otherwise noted, this report reflects demand, supply, and reliability figures for SFPUC wholesale customers only, rather than the entire Regional Water System (inclusive of SFPUC retail customers). The SFPUC utilizes the Water Shortage Allocation Plan (WSAP) that is incorporated in the Water Supply Agreement between the SFPUC and the wholesale customers to allocate the RWS supply available during dry years between the retail customers and the wholesale customers. The WSAP, also known as the Tier 1 Plan, defines the method for allocating between the retail customers collectively and wholesale customers collectively the available RWS supplies during system-wide shortages. 6 California Assembly Bill 1572 (2023), codified at Water Code section 10618.14, prohibits the use of potable/drinking water for irrigating nonfunctional turf at government and commercial, industrial, and institutional (CII) properties, including homeowner associations (HOAs) common areas, statewide. Item No. 4 Page 3 of 9 9 4 6 1 Use and planned use of recycled water: City is no longer planning for expanding recycled water use within the service area. Attachments A-C of this report includes the water supply reliability data that is provided by the SFPUC and will be used to populate the water supply reliability tables in the City’s 2025 UWMP. During its May 2026 meeting, the UAC and the public will have the opportunity to review the City’s full draft 2025 UWMP, which, in addition to the updates highlighted in this staff report, will include updated descriptions of the water system’s service area, system supplies, water demand, Demand Management Measures (DMMs), and full WSCP. BACKGROUND The Urban Water Management Planning Act (California Water Code, §§10610- 10656 and §10608) requires an urban water supplier, providing water for municipal purposes to more than 3,000 customers or serving more than 3,000 acre-feet annually, to adopt an UWMP every five years demonstrating water supply reliability in normal, single dry, and multiple dry water years. A UWMP must also describe the City’s current water reliability, foreseeable future needs, strategy for meeting those needs, and any challenges. The information collected from UWMPs is useful for local, regional, and statewide water planning. In order for the City, as an urban water supplier, to be eligible for any water grant or loan administered by DWR, it must have a current UWMP on file that DWR determined addresses the requirements of the California Water Code. A current UWMP must also be maintained by the City throughout the term of any grant or loan administered by DWR. This requirement also applies to the City’s outstanding loans administered by the State Water Resources Control Board (SWRCB). As of fiscal year 2025, the City had $153.8 million in SWRCB loans outstanding, and the City is drawing up to an additional $81.2 million on a reimbursement basis to finance the Secondary Treatment Upgrades project at the Regional Water Quality Control Plant, which is still under construction. ANALYSIS 1.Long-term Water Demand Projections The 2025 Water Demand and Conservation Projections (2025 Demand Study) were prepared in coordination with Bay Area Water Supply & Conservation Agency (BAWSCA) to support regional planning efforts and to facilitate preparation of member agencies’ 2025 Urban Water Management Plan. The 2025 Demand Study is a direct input for the water demand, supply, and reliability projections in the City’s 2025 UWMP. BAWSCA’s technical consultant, Hazen and Sawyer, developed individual models for each BAWSCA member agency, utilizing information provided by agencies on projected population, jobs, and housing growth to project water demand through 2050. City staff worked with Hazen and Sawyer to develop and refine the underlying assumptions for Palo Alto’s demand forecasts by using sources such as the City’s Housing Element and the City’s current and planned participation in water conservation Item No. 4 Page 4 of 9 9 4 6 1 programs. More information about the inputs and methodology for the 2025 Demand Study can be found in the 2025 Regional Demand Study Report11. Calibration base period: Calibrating a model to a base period involves adjusting its parameters to align outputs with historical data. For the 2025 Demand Study, the predicted per account water use was calibrated to a base historical period between 2021-2023. This base period followed a 2-year drought during which demand was near historic lows. 11 2025 Regional Water Demand and Conservation Study: https://bawsca.org/water/use/2025_Demand_Study Item No. 4 Page 5 of 9 9 4 6 1 Housing density and population: The 2025 City’s demand forecast uses higher population projections compared to that of the 2020 Demand Study; however, this is offset by higher housing density assumptions. Palo Alto’s demand forecast relies on ABAG 2040 projections (consistent with the City’s current Housing Element) which assume higher population growth compared to the 2020 Demand Study which relied on the City’s 2030 Comprehensive Plan. Rates and price-elasticity: The 2025 demand forecast applies price-elasticity assumptions and incorporates the City Council’s latest adopted 5-year rate plan as an input. As a result, projected demand through 2030 is lower than it would be under an inflation-only assumption. The 2020 Demand Study model included a price elasticity estimate and used historical rate data for its forecast, but it did not include future approved rate plans. 13. Reliability is defined by the amount and frequency of water delivery reductions (deficiencies) required to balance customer demands with available supplies during droughts. 13 Section 10631(h): https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes_displaySection.xhtml?sectionNum=10631.&lawCode=WAT Item No. 4 Page 6 of 9 9 4 6 1 Bay-Delta Plan Amendment requires the release of 30-50% of the “unimpaired flow”15 on the three tributaries from February through June in every year type. SFPUC assumes that the required release is 40% of unimpaired flow in its modeling of the new flow standard. 15 "Unimpaired flow represents the natural water production of a river basin, unaltered by upstream diversions, storage, or by export or import of water to or from other watersheds." (Water Quality Control Plan for the San Francisco Bay/Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Estuary (Dec. 12, 2018) p.17, fn. 14, available at https://www.waterboards.ca.gov/plans_policies/docs/2018wqcp.pdf.) Item No. 4 Page 7 of 9 9 4 6 1 Table 1. Retail and Wholesale RWS Demand Assumptions Used for Supply Reliability Modeling (AFY) - 2025 UWMP vs 2020 UWMP 1 2030 through 2050 Wholesale Customer purchase projections were provided to the SFPUC by BAWSCA on March 4, 2026, and include demands for the cities of San Jose and Santa Clara. The 2025 UWMP cutback projections in Table 2 are assumed to apply to each wholesale customer equally, and therefore also reflect the projected cutbacks for the City of Palo Alto. The Tier 2 Drought Response Implementation Plan, which allocates the collective wholesale customers’ share of available RWS supplies among each of the 26 wholesale customers during dry years, only applies during system-wide shortages of 20% or less. Because the "With Bay- Delta Plan" scenario results in wholesale cutbacks ranging from 31% to 48%, the Tier 2 Plan cannot be applied. In the absence of a negotiated approach for allocating RWS supply among the wholesale customers during shortages exceeding 20%, BAWSCA suggests that agencies (including City) apply these cutbacks equally across all agencies for their 2025 UWMPs (see Attachment A: Memo to Member Agencies). This approach is reflected in the above wholesale supply cutback projections. 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Retail 68,486 70,280 68,598 69,383 71,737 74,763 Wholesale1 145,827 150,087 152,777 157,597 161,520 166,340 Total 214,314 220,366 221,375 226,980 233,257 241,103 Retail 75,324 75,660 76,893 79,023 82,609 Wholesale 163,649 165,779 170,263 175,195 182,480 Total 238,973 241,439 247,155 254,217 265,090 2025 Urban Water Management Plan 2020 Urban Water Management Plan Table 2: Projected RWS Supply Availability, With Bay-Delta Plan Amendment - 2025 UWMP vs 2020 UWMP 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 31.1% 31.1% 42.2% 42.2% 42.2% 33.0% 33.0% 42.9% 42.9% 42.9% 35.2% 35.2% 45.1% 45.1% 45.1% 36.8% 36.8% 46.8% 46.8% 46.8% 38.4% 38.4% 48.4% 48.4% 48.4% 36.3% 36.5% 36.5% 45.5% 45.4% 45.6% 45.6% 45.5% 45.4% 45.6% 45.6% 45.5% 45.4% 45.6% 52.0% 53.7% 45.4% 50.1% 52.0% 53.7% 2025 Urban Water Management Plan 2020 Urban Water Management Plan Fifth Year Fourth Year Third Year Second Year First Year First Year Second Year Third Year Fourth Year Fifth Year Item No. 4 Page 8 of 9 9 4 6 1 For a more detailed description of the Water Reliability Assessment, refer to Attachments A-C. 17 outlining the UAC’s concerns regarding the Plan’s framework. The upcoming draft 2025 UWMP documents the completion of the One Water Plan and summarizes its findings related to recycled water projects. The draft 2025 UWMP will not identify the Phase 3 Expansion Project as a potential recycled water use because it was not included in the One Water Plan’s portfolio evaluation due to high unit costs and comparatively lower yield relative to other recycled water options. FISCAL/RESOURCE IMPACT 17 Staff Report 2509-5258: https://recordsportal.paloalto.gov/WebLink/DocView.aspx?id=83667&dbid=0&repo=PaloAlto Item No. 4 Page 9 of 9 9 4 6 1 No fiscal impact. STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT th, 2026, followed by a presentation to City Council on June 8th, 2026. ENVIRONMENTAL REVIEW ATTACHMENTS AUTHOR/TITLE: 155 Bovet Road, Suite 650 ⚫ San Mateo, CA 94402 ⚫ ph 650 349 3000 ⚫ fx 650 349 8395 ⚫ www.bawsca.org March 11, 2026 TO: BAWSCA Member Agencies FROM: Danielle McPherson, Senior Water Resources Specialist Tom Francis, Water Resources Manager SUBJECT: San Francisco Regional Water System Supply Reliability for 2025 Urban Water Management Plans On March 11, 2026, the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission (SFPUC) provided a letter with analysis on the Regional Water System (RWS) supply reliability for use in your 2025 Urban Water Management Plans (UWMPs). This memorandum transmits that letter (Attachment A) and provides additional context regarding individual agency cutbacks outlined in Attachment B. Regulatory and Demand Scenarios To account for the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the State Water Resources Control Board’s Bay-Delta Plan Amendment, the SFPUC modeled water supply reliability under two regulatory scenarios and two demand scenarios: • Regulatory Scenarios: 1. With implementation of the Bay-Delta Plan Amendment. 2. Without implementation of the Bay-Delta Plan Amendment. • Demand Scenarios: 1. Projected SFPUC retail demand and Wholesale Customer purchases for 2030-2050. 2. Projected SFPUC retail demand for 2050 and the Wholesale Customer Supply Assurance of 184 MGD. Key Findings and Impacts on Allocation Attachment B provides specific cutbacks for each agency based on Demand Scenario 1 (projected RWS demand). Please note the following critical impacts on how these shortages are managed: • Extreme Shortages Under Bay-Delta Implementation: Under the "With Bay- Delta Plan" scenario, system-wide cutbacks exceed the SFPUC’s Level of Service Goal to limit system-wide cutbacks to 20% or less. In these instances, the Water Supply Agreement (WSA) allows for negotiated allocations between March 11, 2026 Page 2 of 2 retail and Wholesale Customers collectively. In the absence of a negotiated agreement, SFPUC has applied the Tier 1 split for a system-wide cutback up to 20%. • Application of the Tier 2 Plan: The Tier 2 Drought Response Implementation Plan only applies during system-wide shortages of 20% or less. Because the "With Bay-Delta Plan" scenario results in wholesale cutbacks ranging from 31% to 48%, the Tier 2 Plan cannot be applied. • BAWSCA Recommendation: In the absence of a negotiated approach for allocating RWS supply among the Wholesale Customers during shortages exceeding 20%, BAWSCA suggests that agencies apply these cutbacks equally across all agencies for their 2025 UWMPs. • "Without Bay-Delta" Scenario: The SFPUC analyses do not anticipate any cutbacks during the required five-year drought sequence under the "Without Bay- Delta Plan" scenario. Guidance for 2025 UWMP Reporting For the 2020 UWMPs, most member agencies utilized the "With Bay-Delta Plan" scenario for their standard tables and included the "Without Bay -Delta Plan" scenario in supplemental tables or appendices. BAWSCA understands that the SFPUC intends to follow this same approach for its own 2025 UWMP. Note on Future Modeling (HRL Program) While the SFPUC previously indicated it would model the Tuolumne River Healthy Rivers and Landscapes Program (HRL), they have not provided that modeling at this time due to significant implementation uncertainties. Enclosed: Attachment A – 2025 UWMP Supply Reliability Letter_2026-03-11 Attachment B – 2025 UWMP Wholesale Customer Dry Year Allocations cc: Tom Smegal Allison Schutte Services of the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission OUR MISSION: To provide our customers with high-quality, efficient, and reliable water, power and sewer services in a manner that values environmental and community interests and sustains the resources entrusted to our care. 525 Golden Gate Ave San Francisco, CA 94102 (415) 554-3155 sfpuc.gov March 11, 2026 Danielle McPherson Senior Water Resources Specialist Bay Area Water Supply and Conservation Agency 155 Bovet Road, Suite 650 San Mateo, CA 94402 Dear Ms. McPherson, This letter contains the supply reliability of the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission (SFPUC) Regional Water System (RWS) that the SFPUC has prepared for the 2025 Urban Water Management Plan (UWMP), which the Wholesale Customers may also use in their respective 2025 UWMPs. The SFPUC has assessed the RWS’s supply reliability under the following planning scenarios: 1. Projected supply reliability for years 2030 through 2050, assuming total demand is equivalent to the sum of the projected retail and wholesale demands on the RWS, which includes Wholesale Customer purchase projections provided to the SFPUC by BAWSCA on March 4, 2026 (refer to Table 1 below). 2. Projected supply reliability for 2050, assuming total demand is equivalent to the sum of the projected retail demands on the RWS and the Wholesale Customers’ Supply Assurance of 184 MGD. 3. Under each of the above demand conditions, projected supply reliability for the following scenarios: (a) with implementation of the 2018 amendments to the Bay-Delta Water Quality Control Plan (Bay-Delta Plan Amendment) and (b) without implementation of the Bay-Delta Plan Amendment. 2025 UWMP Supply Reliability Memo March 11, 2026 Page 2 of 14 Table 1. Retail and Wholesale RWS Demand Assumptions Used for Supply Reliability Modeling (MGD) 20251 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Retail 61.1 62.7 61.2 61.9 64.0 66.7 Wholesale2 130.1 133.9 136.3 140.6 144.1 148.4 1 2025 demands are from the FY 2024-25 Table J-1 water use calculations, prepared pursuant to the Water Supply Agreement between the SFPUC and the Wholesale Customers. 2 2030 through 2050 Wholesale Customer purchase projections were provided to the SFPUC by BAWSCA on March 4, 2026, and include demands for the cities of San Jose and Santa Clara. The total amount of water the SFPUC can deliver to the Retail and Wholesale Customers from the RWS depends on several factors, including (1) the amount of water that is available to the SFPUC from natural runoff, (2) the amount of water in reservoir storage, and (3) the amount of water that the SFPUC releases from the RWS for purposes other than customer deliveries (e.g., instream flow releases below RWS reservoirs). For planning purposes, the SFPUC “average year” or “normal year” is based on historical hydrology under conditions that allow the RWS reservoirs to be filled over the course of the snowmelt season, allowing full deliveries to customers. For “dry-year” supply scenarios, the SFPUC plans its water deliveries using a water-supply planning methodology with reference to a simulated 8.5-year design drought. In each demand scenario for 2030 through 2050, the SFPUC estimated RWS deliveries using the standard SFPUC procedure, which includes adding increased levels of rationing as needed in dry years to balance the demands on the RWS with available water supply. The five consecutive dry-year sequence shown in the tables below represent years 2 through 6 of the design drought. The SFPUC chose this sequence because year 2 is the first year in which system-wide water use reductions could take effect, as the design drought sequence generally begins year 1 with full reservoirs. All simulations that the SFPUC has prepared for its 2025 UWMP have increased levels of rationing in the final years of the design drought sequence. The SFPUC has presented the results in the standardized format prescribed by DWR. Assumptions about the status of the dry-year water supply projects included in the SFPUC’s Water System Improvement Program (WSIP) are provided below in Table 2 titled “WSIP Project Assumptions for RWS Supply Modeling.” The table reflects instream flow requirements at San Mateo and Alameda Creeks, 2025 UWMP Supply Reliability Memo March 11, 2026 Page 3 of 14 as described in the UWMP “common language” that the SFPUC provided to BAWSCA and the Wholesale Customers separately from this letter. The SFPUC utilized the Water Shortage Allocation Plan (WSAP) that is incorporated in the Water Supply Agreement between the SFPUC and the Wholesale Customers to allocate the RWS supply available during dry years between the Retail Customers and the Wholesale Customers in the 2025 UWMP supply reliability analysis. The WSAP, also known as the Tier 1 Plan, defines the method for allocating between the Retail Customers collectively and Wholesale Customers collectively the available RWS supplies during system-wide shortages. The SFPUC and the Wholesale Customers most recently amended the WSAP in 2025. Also in 2025, the Wholesale Customers adopted an updated Tier 2 Plan, which allocates the collective Wholesale Customers’ share of available RWS supplies from the Tier 1 Plan among each of the 26 Wholesale Customers. The WSAP addresses shortages that require a system-wide reduction in water use of 20% or less, consistent with the SFPUC’s Level of Service Goal. For any shortage scenario requiring a system- wide reduction in water use above 20% in the supply reliability analysis, the SFPUC applied the Tier 1 Plan’s allocation of supplies between the Retail Customers and Wholesale Customers for a shortage requiring a system-wide reduction in water use of 16-20%. Because of the uncertainty surrounding implementation of the Bay-Delta Plan Amendment, the RWS supply reliability assessment evaluates two future supply scenarios: (1) with implementation of the Bay-Delta Plan Amendment, and (2) without implementation of the Bay-Delta Plan Amendment. It is unknown when implementation may begin on the Bay-Delta Plan Amendment; for the purposes of the 2025 UWMP analysis, the SFPUC included it beginning in the 2030 modeling scenarios (see Tables 4a-4g and 6). The SFPUC incorporated additional modeling assumptions in the 2025 UWMP analysis regarding the State Water Resources Control Board curtailments and assumptions regarding agreements with Turlock and Modesto Irrigation Districts pertaining to instream flow obligations. 1. During the last two drought periods, 2013-2016 and 2021-2023, the State Water Resources Control Board implemented curtailments through emergency regulations and curtailment orders that attempted to limit diversions from Central Valley watersheds including the Tuolumne River at certain times. Due to the uncertain legality of the State Water Resources Control Board’s curtailment actions as well as the 2025 UWMP Supply Reliability Memo March 11, 2026 Page 4 of 14 uncertainties regarding any potential future curtailment actions against San Francisco, the SFPUC’s RWS supply reliability analyses do not assume curtailments are in effect. 2. Through a 1966 agreement with the Modesto and Turlock Irrigation Districts (Districts), who are more senior downstream appropriative water rights holders on the Tuolumne River, San Francisco may become responsible for up to approximately 51.7% of any flow releases the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) may require through issuance of a new license for the Districts’ Don Pedro Hydropower Project. The exact flow contribution for which San Francisco may become responsible is highly uncertain and may depend on multiple currently unknown factors, including an anticipated Endangered Species Act biological opinion from the National Marine Fisheries Service and a Clean Water Act section 401 water quality certification from the State Water Resources Control Board. San Francisco’s potential responsibility for FERC-ordered flows may further depend on San Francisco’s ability to enter into a new or extended agreement with the Districts to offset a portion of San Francisco’s flow contributions in exchange for payment. Due to the high levels of uncertainty surrounding the Districts’ FERC-relicensing process, as well as the unknown timing for license issuance, the SFPUC’s RWS water supply reliability analyses do not assume additional water supply losses from any potential new FERC-ordered flow releases. 3. The simulation of the Bay-Delta Plan Amendment scenario assumes that a 1996 agreement between San Francisco and the Districts (the Side Agreement), which allows San Francisco to pay the Districts in lieu of contributing a portion of current FERC-ordered flow releases, remains in effect, and that the San Francisco share of flows in excess of and not covered by the Side Agreement is approximately 51.7%. These assumptions were made for the purpose of completing the modeling for the UWMP update, and they do not represent a commitment by San Francisco or the Districts to any future agreement or of San Francisco accepting responsibility for any future FERC-ordered flow releases. Based on current projected demands, supply modeling for the two future supply scenarios shows significantly different supply reliability projections for the RWS: • With implementation of the Bay-Delta Plan Amendment: Under this scenario, using the demand assumptions shown in Table 1, RWS supplies are expected to range from full availability in an average year 2025 UWMP Supply Reliability Memo March 11, 2026 Page 5 of 14 (100%) to as low as 57% in multiple dry years when compared to water supplies in an average year. In other words, RWS supplies could be reduced by up to 43% in a multi-year drought. See Tables 4a-4g and 6. • Without implementation of the Bay-Delta Plan Amendment: Under this scenario, using demand assumptions shown in Table 1, there are no anticipated shortages of RWS supplies. See Tables 5a-5g and 7. Table 8 below provides the Wholesale Customer purchase projections and Wholesale Customer allocation of RWS supply for the five-year drought risk assessment from 2026 to 2030. The supply projections for 2026 to 2030 are based on a linear growth from 2025 to 2030 levels of demand as calculated by BAWSCA. This table does not assume implementation of the Bay-Delta Plan Amendment because the start of implementation remains uncertain. In the forthcoming 2025 UWMP, the SFPUC acknowledges that it has a Level of Service objective to meet an average annual water demand of 265 MGD from the SFPUC watersheds for Retail and Wholesale Customers during non- drought years, as well as a contractual obligation to supply 184 MGD to the Wholesale Customers, subject to reduction under certain conditions. The SFPUC will, accordingly, include the results of modeling based on a Wholesale Customer demand of 184 MGD to facilitate planning that supports meeting this Level of Service objective and its contractual obligations. The results of this modeling will be in an appendix to the 2025 UWMP prepared by the SFPUC. The RWS supply projections shown in the tables below are more accurately characterized as supplies that will be used to meet projected Retail and Wholesale Customer demands. It is our understanding that you will pass this information on to the Wholesale Customers. If you have any questions or need additional information, please do not hesitate to contact Jennifer Lee at jenlee@sfwater.org or (415) 551-4563. Sincerely, Steven R. Ritchie Assistant General Manager, Water Enterprise 2025 UWMP Supply Reliability Memo March 11, 2026 Page 6 of 14 Table 2: WSIP Project Assumptions for RWS Supply Modeling Projects Base Year 2025 Beyond Beyond Lower Crystal Springs Dam Improvements not fully restored not fully restored not fully restored Regional Groundwater Storage and Recovery (GSR) Project filled at spring 2020 level of 43,000 AF; GSR recovery rate of 5.2 MGDa GSR account fully filled; GSR recovery rate of 5.2 MGDa GSR account fully filled; GSR recovery rate of 6.2 MGDa Recapture Project Project not built operating operating Dry-Year Transfers Not in effect Not in effect Not in effect a. The GSR Project was intended to provide 7.2 MGD over 7.5 years, however current limitations on the number of wells available will result in deliveries less than 7.2 MGD over 7.5 years. Table 3: Projected Total Regional Water System Supply Utilized and Portion of Regional Water System Supply Utilized by Wholesale Customers in Normal Years [For Table 6-9]: RWS Supply 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 RWS Supply Utilized (MGD) 196.6 197.5 202.5 208.1 215.1 Customersa (MGD) 133.9 136.3 140.6 144.1 148.4 a. RWS supply utilized by Wholesale Customers from 2030 through 2050 is equivalent to Wholesale Customer purchase projections provided to the SFPUC by BAWSCA on March 4, 2026, and includes demands for the cities of San Jose and Santa Clara. 2025 UWMP Supply Reliability Memo March 11, 2026 Page 7 of 14 Basis of Water Supply Data: With Implementation of the Bay-Delta Plan Amendment Table 4a: Basis of Water Supply Data [For Table 7-1], Base Year 2030, With Bay-Delta Plan Amendment Year Type Base Year Volume Available (MGD) % of Average Supply Volume Available (MGD) Notes on Calculation of Wholesale Allocation of RWS Average year 2030 196.6 100%133.9 Single dry year 2030 147.5 75% 92.2 At shortages 20% or greater, wholesale allocation is assumed to be 62.5% and retail allocation is 37.5%. Table 4b: Basis of Water Supply Data [For Table 7-1], Base Year 2035, With Bay-Delta Plan Amendment Year Type Base Year Volume Available (MGD) % of Average Supply Volume Available (MGD) Notes on Calculation of Wholesale Allocation of RWS Average year 2035 197.5 100% 136.3 Single dry year 2035 146.2 74% 91.3 greater, wholesale allocation is assumed to be 62.5% and retail allocation is 37.5%. 2025 UWMP Supply Reliability Memo March 11, 2026 Page 8 of 14 Table 4c: Basis of Water Supply Data [For Table 7-1], Base Year 2040, With Bay-Delta Plan Amendment Year Type Base Year Volume Available (MGD) % of Average Supply Volume Available (MGD) Notes on Calculation of Wholesale Allocation of RWS Average year 2040 202.5 100% 140.6 Single dry year 2040 145.8 72% 91.1 greater, wholesale allocation is assumed to be 62.5% and retail allocation is 37.5%. Table 4d: Basis of Water Supply Data [For Table 7-1], Base Year 2045, With Bay-Delta Plan Amendment Year Type Base Year Volume Available % of Average Supply Volume Available Notes on Calculation of Wholesale Allocation of RWS Average year 2045 208.1 100% 144.1 Single dry year 2045 145.7 70% 91.0 greater, wholesale allocation is assumed to be 62.5% and retail allocation is 37.5%. 2025 UWMP Supply Reliability Memo March 11, 2026 Page 9 of 14 Table 4e: Basis of Water Supply Data [For Table 7-1], Base Year 2050, With Bay-Delta Plan Amendment Year Type Base Year Volume Available (MGD) % of Average Supply Volume Available (MGD) Notes on Calculation of Wholesale Allocation of RWS Average year 2050 215.1 100% 148.4 Single dry year 2050 146.2 68% 91.4 greater, wholesale allocation is assumed to be 62.5% and retail allocation is 37.5%. Table 4f: Basis of Water Supply Data [For Table 7-1], Base Year 2050, With Bay-Delta Plan Amendment and Wholesale Demands at 184 MGD Supply Assurance Year Type Base Year Volume Available (MGD) % of Average Supply Volume Available (MGD) Notes on Calculation of Wholesale Allocation of RWS Average year 2050 250.7 100% 184.0 Single dry year 2050 145.4 58% 90.9 greater, wholesale allocation is assumed to be 62.5% and retail allocation is 37.5%. 2025 UWMP Supply Reliability Memo March 11, 2026 Page 10 of 14 Table 4g: Projected RWS Supply Availability [Alternative to Table 7-1], Years 2030-2050, With Bay-Delta Plan Amendment Year Type 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 MGD Supply Assurance) Average year 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Single dry year 75% 74% 72% 70% 68% 58% Consecutive 1st dry year 75% 74% 72% 70% 68% 58% Consecutive 2nd dry year 63% 63% 61% 59% 57% 48% Consecutive 3rd dry year 63% 63% 61% 59% 57% 48% Consecutive 4th dry year 63% 63% 61% 59% 57% 48% Consecutive 5th dry year 63% 63% 61% 59% 57% 48% 2025 UWMP Supply Reliability Memo March 11, 2026 Page 11 of 14 Basis of Water Supply Data: Without Implementation of the Bay-Delta Plan Amendment Table 5a: Basis of Water Supply Data [For Table 7-1], Base Year 2030, Without Bay-Delta Plan Amendment Year Type Base Year Volume Available (MGD) % of Average Supply Volume Available (MGD) Notes on Calculation of Wholesale Allocation of RWS Average year 2030 196.6 100% 133.9 Single dry year 2030 196.6 100% 133.9 Consecutive 1st dry year 2030 196.6 100% 133.9 Consecutive 2nd dry year 2030 196.6 100% 133.9 Consecutive 3rd dry year 2030 196.6 100% 133.9 Consecutive 4th dry year 2030 196.6 100% 133.9 Consecutive 5th dry year 2030 196.6 100% 133.9 Table 5b: Basis of Water Supply Data [For Table 7-1], Base Year 2035, Without Bay-Delta Plan Amendment Year Type Base Year Volume Available (MGD) % of Average Supply Volume Available (MGD) Notes on Calculation of Wholesale Allocation of RWS Average year 2035 197.5 100% 136.3 Single dry year 2035 197.5 100% 136.3 Consecutive 1st dry year 2035 197.5 100% 136.3 Consecutive 2nd dry year 2035 197.5 100% 136.3 Consecutive 3rd dry year 2035 197.5 100% 136.3 Consecutive 4th dry year 2035 197.5 100% 136.3 Consecutive 5th dry year 2035 197.5 100% 136.3 2025 UWMP Supply Reliability Memo March 11, 2026 Page 12 of 14 Table 5c: Basis of Water Supply Data [For Table 7-1], Base Year 2040, Without Bay-Delta Plan Amendment Year Type Base Year Volume Available (MGD) % of Average Supply Volume Available (MGD) Notes on Calculation of Wholesale Allocation of RWS Average year 2040 202.5 100% 140.6 Single dry year 2040 202.5 100% 140.6 Consecutive 1st dry year 2040 202.5 100% 140.6 Consecutive 2nd dry year 2040 202.5 100% 140.6 Consecutive 3rd dry year 2040 202.5 100% 140.6 Consecutive 4th dry year 2040 202.5 100% 140.6 Consecutive 5th dry year 2040 202.5 100% 140.6 Table 5d: Basis of Water Supply Data [For Table 7-1], Base Year 2045, Without Bay-Delta Plan Amendment Year Type Base Year Volume Available (MGD) % of Average Supply Volume Available (MGD) Notes on Calculation of Wholesale Allocation of RWS Average year 2045 208.1 100% 144.1 Single dry year 2045 208.1 100% 144.1 Consecutive 1st dry year 2045 208.1 100% 144.1 Consecutive 2nd dry year 2045 208.1 100% 144.1 Consecutive 3rd dry year 2045 208.1 100% 144.1 Consecutive 4th dry year 2045 208.1 100% 144.1 Consecutive 5th dry year 2045 208.1 100% 144.1 Table 5e: Basis of Water Supply Data [For Table 7-1], Base Year 2050, Without Bay-Delta Plan Amendment Year Type Base Year Volume Available % of Average Supply Volume Available Notes on Calculation of Wholesale Allocation of RWS Average year 2050 215.1 100% 148.4 Single dry year 2050 215.1 100% 148.4 Consecutive 1st dry year 2050 215.1 100% 148.4 Consecutive 2nd dry year 2050 215.1 100% 148.4 Consecutive 3rd dry year 2050 215.1 100% 148.4 Consecutive 4th dry year 2050 215.1 100% 148.4 Consecutive 5th dry year 2050 215.1 100% 148.4 2025 UWMP Supply Reliability Memo March 11, 2026 Page 13 of 14 Table 5f: Basis of Water Supply Data [For Table 7-1], Base Year 2050, Without Bay-Delta Plan Amendment and Wholesale Demands at 184 MGD Supply Assurance Year Type Base Year Volume Available % of Average Supply Volume Available Notes on Calculation of Wholesale Allocation of RWS Average year 2050 250.7 100% 184.0 Single dry year 2050 225.6 90% 158.9 allocation is 64% (144.4 MGD) and retail allocation is 36% (81.2 MGD). Retail allocations above 66.7 MGD are re- allocated to Wholesale Customers, per the Water Supply Agreement. Therefore, 14.5 MGD is added to wholesale allocation, bringing it to 158.9 MGD. Same as above. Table 5g: Projected RWS Supply [Alternative to Table 7-1], Years 2030-2050, Without Bay- Delta Plan Amendment Year Type 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 MGD Supply Assurance) Average year 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Single dry year 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 90% Consecutive 1st dry year 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 90% Consecutive 2nd dry year 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 90% Consecutive 3rd dry year 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 90% Consecutive 4th dry year 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 90% Consecutive 5th dry year 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 90% 2025 UWMP Supply Reliability Memo March 11, 2026 Page 14 of 14 Supply Projections for Consecutive Five Dry Year Sequences Table 6: Projected Multiple Dry Years RWS Wholesale Allocation [For Table 7-4], With Bay-Delta Plan Amendment 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Supply Assurance) First year 92.2 91.3 91.1 91.0 91.4 90.9 Second year 77.4 77.8 77.2 76.7 76.6 75.2 Third year 77.4 77.8 77.2 76.7 76.6 75.2 Fourth year 77.4 77.8 77.2 76.7 76.6 75.2 Fifth year 77.4 77.8 77.2 76.7 76.6 75.2 Table 7: Projected Multiple Dry Years RWS Wholesale Allocation [For Table 7-4], Without Bay-Delta Plan Amendment 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Supply Assurance) First year 133.9 136.3 140.6 144.1 148.4 158.9 Second year 133.9 136.3 140.6 144.1 148.4 158.9 Third year 133.9 136.3 140.6 144.1 148.4 158.9 Fourth year 133.9 136.3 140.6 144.1 148.4 158.9 Fifth year 133.9 136.3 140.6 144.1 148.4 158.9 Table 8: Projected RWS Supply for 5-Year Drought Risk Assessment [For Table 7-5] Year 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Wholesale Purchase Projectionsa (MGD) 130.9 131.6 132.4 133.2 133.9 Wholesale Customersb (MGD) 130.9 131.6 132.4 133.2 133.9 a. Wholesale Purchase Projections for 2026-2030 assume a linear growth between 2025 actual demands and 2030 projections, as calculated by BAWSCA. b. This table does not assume implementation of the Bay-Delta Plan Amendment because the start of implementation remains uncertain. Attachment B: 2025 UWMP Wholesale Customer Dry Year Allocations Basis for SFPUC's Water Supply Reliability Modeling Actual (2025) and Projected (2030-2050) RWS Purchases Agency ISG 20251 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Alameda CWD 13.76 10.08 11.25 11.56 12.00 12.45 13.76 Brisbane / GVMID 0.98 0.68 0.94 0.95 0.97 0.97 0.97 Burlingame 5.23 3.23 3.92 3.99 4.15 4.30 4.44 Coastside CWD 2.18 1.01 1.17 1.16 1.16 1.16 1.16 CWS Total 35.68 29.50 27.04 26.89 26.93 26.80 26.89 Daly City 4.29 3.55 4.29 4.29 4.29 4.29 4.29 East Palo Alto 3.46 1.72 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.18 1.19 Estero MID 5.90 3.78 3.90 3.92 3.93 3.91 3.90 Hayward 22.09 13.66 14.74 15.66 16.82 18.14 19.71 Hillsborough 4.09 2.32 2.09 2.08 2.09 2.11 2.12 Menlo Park 4.46 2.72 2.58 2.64 2.71 2.76 2.83 Mid-Peninsula WD 3.89 2.34 2.82 2.97 3.18 3.39 3.43 Millbrae 3.15 1.81 1.91 1.99 2.09 2.18 2.29 Milpitas 9.23 4.68 5.30 5.35 5.41 5.46 5.52 Mountain View 12.46 7.69 7.87 8.12 8.59 9.04 9.55 North Coast CWD 3.84 2.58 2.23 2.29 2.37 2.36 2.36 Palo Alto 16.58 9.31 8.30 8.20 8.15 8.15 8.18 Purissima Hills WD 1.63 1.51 1.36 1.35 1.36 1.36 1.37 Redwood City 10.93 7.43 6.84 6.54 6.73 6.91 7.09 San Bruno 3.25 1.03 1.85 2.27 2.68 2.68 2.68 San Jose 3.99 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 Santa Clara 2.91 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 Stanford 3.03 1.59 1.77 1.96 2.02 2.07 2.13 Sunnyvale 12.58 10.28 10.72 11.15 11.92 12.58 12.58 Westborough WD 1.32 0.70 0.82 0.80 0.84 0.88 0.91 Total 184.00 130.1 133.9 136.3 140.6 144.1 148.3 1 Source: FY 2024-25 J-Table Attachment B: 2025 UWMP Wholesale Customer Dry Year Allocations Basis for SFPUC's Water Supply Reliability Modeling Actual (2025) and Projected (2026-2030) RWS Purchases Agency 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Alameda CWD 10.08 10.32 10.55 10.78 11.02 11.25 Brisbane / GVMID 0.68 0.73 0.78 0.83 0.89 0.94 Burlingame 3.23 3.36 3.50 3.64 3.78 3.92 Coastside CWD 1.01 1.05 1.08 1.11 1.14 1.17 CWS Total 29.50 29.00 28.51 28.02 27.53 27.04 Daly City 3.55 3.70 3.85 4.00 4.14 4.29 East Palo Alto 1.72 1.62 1.51 1.40 1.30 1.19 Estero MID 3.78 3.80 3.83 3.85 3.88 3.90 Hayward 13.66 13.87 14.09 14.31 14.53 14.74 Hillsborough 2.32 2.27 2.23 2.18 2.14 2.09 Menlo Park 2.72 2.69 2.67 2.64 2.61 2.58 Mid-Peninsula WD 2.34 2.44 2.53 2.63 2.73 2.82 Millbrae 1.81 1.83 1.85 1.87 1.89 1.91 Milpitas 4.68 4.80 4.93 5.05 5.18 5.30 Mountain View 7.69 7.73 7.76 7.80 7.83 7.87 North Coast CWD 2.58 2.51 2.44 2.37 2.30 2.23 Palo Alto 9.31 9.11 8.91 8.71 8.50 8.30 Purissima Hills WD 1.51 1.48 1.45 1.42 1.39 1.36 Redwood City 7.43 7.32 7.20 7.08 6.96 6.84 San Bruno 1.03 1.20 1.36 1.52 1.69 1.85 San Jose 3.99 4.09 4.20 4.30 4.40 4.50 Santa Clara 2.91 3.23 3.54 3.86 4.18 4.50 Stanford 1.59 1.62 1.66 1.70 1.73 1.77 Sunnyvale 10.28 10.37 10.46 10.55 10.63 10.72 Westborough WD 0.70 0.72 0.75 0.77 0.80 0.82 Total 130.1 130.9 131.6 132.4 133.2 133.9 Attachment B: 2025 UWMP Wholesale Customer Dry Year Allocations For UWMP Tables 7-1 through Table 7-4 2025 With BDP Basis of Water Supply Data 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 130.12 130.88 131.64 132.40 133.16 130.12 130.88 131.64 132.40 133.16 0%0%0%0%0% Projected Supply by Year Type Projected Supply by Year Type Agency 2025 RWS Purchases 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Alameda CWD 10.08 10.08 11.25 11.56 12.00 12.45 Brisbane / GVMID 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 Burlingame 3.23 3.23 3.23 3.23 3.23 3.23 Coastside CWD 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.01 CWS Total 29.50 29.50 29.50 29.50 29.50 29.50 Daly City 3.55 3.55 3.55 3.55 3.55 3.55 East Palo Alto 1.72 1.72 1.72 1.72 1.72 1.72 Estero MID 3.78 3.78 3.78 3.78 3.78 3.78 Hayward 13.66 13.66 13.66 13.66 13.66 13.66 Hillsborough 2.32 2.32 2.32 2.32 2.32 2.32 Menlo Park 2.72 2.72 2.72 2.72 2.72 2.72 Mid-Peninsula WD 2.34 2.34 2.34 2.34 2.34 2.34 Millbrae 1.81 1.81 1.81 1.81 1.81 1.81 Milpitas 4.68 4.68 4.68 4.68 4.68 4.68 Mountain View 7.69 7.69 7.69 7.69 7.69 7.69 North Coast CWD 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 Palo Alto 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31 Purissima Hills WD 1.51 1.51 1.51 1.51 1.51 1.51 Redwood City 7.43 7.43 7.43 7.43 7.43 7.43 San Bruno 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 San Jose 3.99 3.99 3.99 3.99 3.99 3.99 Santa Clara 2.91 2.91 2.91 2.91 2.91 2.91 Stanford 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 Sunnyvale 10.28 10.28 10.28 10.28 10.28 10.28 Westborough WD 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.70 Total 130.12 130.12 131.28 131.59 132.03 132.48 Percent Cutback Wholesale RWS Demand Wholesale RWS Supply Base Year Scenario Consecutive Dry Year Attachment B: 2025 UWMP Wholesale Customer Dry Year Allocations For UWMP Tables 7-1 through Table 7-4 2030 With BDP Basis of Water Supply Data 1st/Single 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 133.9 133.9 133.9 133.9 133.9 92.2 77.4 77.4 77.4 77.4 31%42%42%42%42% Projected Supply by Year Type Projected Supply by Year Type Agency 2030 Proj. RWS 1st/Single Dry Year 2nd Dry Year 3rd Dry Year 4th Dry Year 5th Dry Year Alameda CWD 11.25 7.75 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 Brisbane / GVMID 0.94 0.65 0.54 0.54 0.54 0.54 Burlingame 3.92 2.70 2.27 2.27 2.27 2.27 Coastside CWD 1.17 0.81 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 CWS Total 27.04 18.61 15.63 15.63 15.63 15.63 Daly City 4.29 2.95 2.48 2.48 2.48 2.48 East Palo Alto 1.19 0.82 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.69 Estero MID 3.90 2.69 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 Hayward 14.74 10.15 8.52 8.52 8.52 8.52 Hillsborough 2.09 1.44 1.21 1.21 1.21 1.21 Menlo Park 2.58 1.78 1.49 1.49 1.49 1.49 Mid-Peninsula WD 2.82 1.94 1.63 1.63 1.63 1.63 Millbrae 1.91 1.31 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10 Milpitas 5.30 3.65 3.06 3.06 3.06 3.06 Mountain View 7.87 5.42 4.55 4.55 4.55 4.55 North Coast CWD 2.23 1.54 1.29 1.29 1.29 1.29 Palo Alto 8.30 5.72 4.80 4.80 4.80 4.80 Purissima Hills WD 1.36 0.94 0.79 0.79 0.79 0.79 Redwood City 6.84 4.71 3.95 3.95 3.95 3.95 San Bruno 1.85 1.27 1.07 1.07 1.07 1.07 San Jose 4.50 3.10 2.60 2.60 2.60 2.60 Santa Clara 4.50 3.10 2.60 2.60 2.60 2.60 Stanford 1.77 1.22 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.02 Sunnyvale 10.72 7.38 6.20 6.20 6.20 6.20 Westborough WD 0.82 0.57 0.48 0.48 0.48 0.48 Total 133.92 92.2 77.4 77.4 77.4 77.4 Percent Cutback Wholesale RWS Demand Wholesale RWS Supply Base Year Scenario Consecutive Dry Year Attachment B: 2025 UWMP Wholesale Customer Dry Year Allocations For UWMP Tables 7-1 through Table 7-4 2035 With BDP Basis of Water Supply Data 1st/Single 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 136.32 136.32 136.32 136.32 136.32 91.3 77.8 77.8 77.8 77.8 33%43%43%43%43% Projected Supply by Year Type Projected Supply by Year Type Agency 2035 Proj. RWS 1st/Single Dry Year 2nd Dry Year 3rd Dry Year 4th Dry Year 5th Dry Year Alameda CWD 11.56 7.74 6.60 6.60 6.60 6.60 Brisbane / GVMID 0.95 0.64 0.54 0.54 0.54 0.54 Burlingame 3.99 2.67 2.28 2.28 2.28 2.28 Coastside CWD 1.16 0.78 0.66 0.66 0.66 0.66 CWS Total 26.89 18.01 15.35 15.35 15.35 15.35 Daly City 4.29 2.87 2.45 2.45 2.45 2.45 East Palo Alto 1.19 0.80 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 Estero MID 3.92 2.63 2.24 2.24 2.24 2.24 Hayward 15.66 10.49 8.93 8.93 8.93 8.93 Hillsborough 2.08 1.39 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.19 Menlo Park 2.64 1.77 1.51 1.51 1.51 1.51 Mid-Peninsula WD 2.97 1.99 1.69 1.69 1.69 1.69 Millbrae 1.99 1.33 1.14 1.14 1.14 1.14 Milpitas 5.35 3.58 3.05 3.05 3.05 3.05 Mountain View 8.12 5.44 4.63 4.63 4.63 4.63 North Coast CWD 2.29 1.53 1.31 1.31 1.31 1.31 Palo Alto 8.20 5.49 4.68 4.68 4.68 4.68 Purissima Hills WD 1.35 0.90 0.77 0.77 0.77 0.77 Redwood City 6.54 4.38 3.73 3.73 3.73 3.73 San Bruno 2.27 1.52 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30 San Jose 4.50 3.01 2.57 2.57 2.57 2.57 Santa Clara 4.50 3.01 2.57 2.57 2.57 2.57 Stanford 1.96 1.31 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12 Sunnyvale 11.15 7.47 6.36 6.36 6.36 6.36 Westborough WD 0.80 0.54 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46 Total 136.32 91.3 77.8 77.8 77.8 77.8 Percent Cutback Base Year Scenario Consecutive Dry Year Wholesale RWS Demand Wholesale RWS Supply Attachment B: 2025 UWMP Wholesale Customer Dry Year Allocations For UWMP Tables 7-1 through Table 7-4 2040 With BDP Basis of Water Supply Data 1st/Single 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 140.57 140.57 140.57 140.57 140.57 91.1 77.2 77.2 77.2 77.2 35%45%45%45%45% Projected Supply by Year Type Projected Supply by Year Type Agency 2040 Proj. RWS 1st/Single Dry Year 2nd Dry Year 3rd Dry Year 4th Dry Year 5th Dry Year Alameda CWD 12.00 7.78 6.59 6.59 6.59 6.59 Brisbane / GVMID 0.97 0.63 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 Burlingame 4.15 2.69 2.28 2.28 2.28 2.28 Coastside CWD 1.16 0.75 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 CWS Total 26.93 17.45 14.79 14.79 14.79 14.79 Daly City 4.29 2.78 2.36 2.36 2.36 2.36 East Palo Alto 1.19 0.77 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 Estero MID 3.93 2.54 2.16 2.16 2.16 2.16 Hayward 16.82 10.90 9.24 9.24 9.24 9.24 Hillsborough 2.09 1.35 1.15 1.15 1.15 1.15 Menlo Park 2.71 1.75 1.49 1.49 1.49 1.49 Mid-Peninsula WD 3.18 2.06 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 Millbrae 2.09 1.35 1.15 1.15 1.15 1.15 Milpitas 5.41 3.51 2.97 2.97 2.97 2.97 Mountain View 8.59 5.57 4.72 4.72 4.72 4.72 North Coast CWD 2.37 1.53 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30 Palo Alto 8.15 5.28 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.48 Purissima Hills WD 1.36 0.88 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 Redwood City 6.73 4.36 3.69 3.69 3.69 3.69 San Bruno 2.68 1.74 1.47 1.47 1.47 1.47 San Jose 4.50 2.92 2.47 2.47 2.47 2.47 Santa Clara 4.50 2.92 2.47 2.47 2.47 2.47 Stanford 2.02 1.31 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 Sunnyvale 11.92 7.73 6.55 6.55 6.55 6.55 Westborough WD 0.84 0.55 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46 Total 140.57 91.1 77.2 77.2 77.2 77.2 Base Year Scenario Consecutive Dry Year Wholesale RWS Demand Wholesale RWS Supply Percent Cutback Attachment B: 2025 UWMP Wholesale Customer Dry Year Allocations For UWMP Tables 7-1 through Table 7-4 2045 With BDP Basis of Water Supply Data 1st/Single 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 144.11 144.11 144.11 144.11 144.11 91 76.7 76.7 76.7 76.7 37%47%47%47%47% Projected Supply by Year Type Projected Supply by Year Type Agency 2045 Proj. RWS 1st/Single Dry Year 2nd Dry Year 3rd Dry Year 4th Dry Year 5th Dry Year Alameda CWD 12.45 7.86 6.63 6.63 6.63 6.63 Brisbane / GVMID 0.97 0.61 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 Burlingame 4.30 2.72 2.29 2.29 2.29 2.29 Coastside CWD 1.16 0.73 0.62 0.62 0.62 0.62 CWS Total 26.80 16.92 14.26 14.26 14.26 14.26 Daly City 4.29 2.71 2.28 2.28 2.28 2.28 East Palo Alto 1.18 0.75 0.63 0.63 0.63 0.63 Estero MID 3.91 2.47 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 Hayward 18.14 11.45 9.65 9.65 9.65 9.65 Hillsborough 2.11 1.33 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12 Menlo Park 2.76 1.75 1.47 1.47 1.47 1.47 Mid-Peninsula WD 3.39 2.14 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.80 Millbrae 2.18 1.38 1.16 1.16 1.16 1.16 Milpitas 5.46 3.45 2.91 2.91 2.91 2.91 Mountain View 9.04 5.71 4.81 4.81 4.81 4.81 North Coast CWD 2.36 1.49 1.26 1.26 1.26 1.26 Palo Alto 8.15 5.14 4.34 4.34 4.34 4.34 Purissima Hills WD 1.36 0.86 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.72 Redwood City 6.91 4.36 3.68 3.68 3.68 3.68 San Bruno 2.68 1.69 1.43 1.43 1.43 1.43 San Jose 4.50 2.84 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40 Santa Clara 4.50 2.84 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40 Stanford 2.07 1.31 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10 Sunnyvale 12.58 7.94 6.70 6.70 6.70 6.70 Westborough WD 0.88 0.55 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.47 Total 144.11 91.0 76.7 76.7 76.7 76.7 Percent Cutback Base Year Scenario Consecutive Dry Year Wholesale RWS Demand Wholesale RWS Supply Attachment B: 2025 UWMP Wholesale Customer Dry Year Allocations For UWMP Tables 7-1 through Table 7-4 2050 With BDP Basis of Water Supply Data 1st/Single 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 148.35 148.35 148.35 148.35 148.35 91.4 76.6 76.6 76.6 76.6 38%48%48%48%48% Projected Supply by Year Type Agency 2050 Proj. RWS 1st/Single Dry Year 2nd Dry Year 3rd Dry Year 4th Dry Year 5th Dry Year Alameda CWD 13.76 8.48 7.11 7.11 7.11 7.11 Brisbane / GVMID 0.97 0.60 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 Burlingame 4.44 2.74 2.29 2.29 2.29 2.29 Coastside CWD 1.16 0.71 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 CWS Total 26.89 16.57 13.89 13.89 13.89 13.89 Daly City 4.29 2.64 2.22 2.22 2.22 2.22 East Palo Alto 1.19 0.73 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 Estero MID 3.90 2.40 2.01 2.01 2.01 2.01 Hayward 19.71 12.14 10.17 10.17 10.17 10.17 Hillsborough 2.12 1.31 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.09 Menlo Park 2.83 1.75 1.46 1.46 1.46 1.46 Mid-Peninsula WD 3.43 2.11 1.77 1.77 1.77 1.77 Millbrae 2.29 1.41 1.18 1.18 1.18 1.18 Milpitas 5.52 3.40 2.85 2.85 2.85 2.85 Mountain View 9.55 5.88 4.93 4.93 4.93 4.93 North Coast CWD 2.36 1.46 1.22 1.22 1.22 1.22 Palo Alto 8.18 5.04 4.22 4.22 4.22 4.22 Purissima Hills WD 1.37 0.84 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71 Redwood City 7.09 4.37 3.66 3.66 3.66 3.66 San Bruno 2.68 1.65 1.38 1.38 1.38 1.38 San Jose 4.50 2.77 2.32 2.32 2.32 2.32 Santa Clara 4.50 2.77 2.32 2.32 2.32 2.32 Stanford 2.13 1.31 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10 Sunnyvale 12.58 7.75 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 Westborough WD 0.91 0.56 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.47 Total 148.35 91.4 76.6 76.6 76.6 76.6 Percent Cutback Base Year Scenario Consecutive Dry Year Wholesale RWS Demand Wholesale RWS Supply Attachment B: 2025 UWMP Wholesale Customer Dry Year Allocations For UWMP Tables 7-1 through Table 7-4 2026 Without BDP Basis of Water Supply Data 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 130.1 130.9 131.6 132.4 133.2 130.1 130.9 131.6 132.4 133.2 0%0%0%0%0% Projected Supply by Year Type Projected Supply by Year Type Agency 2025 RWS Purchases 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Alameda CWD 10.08 10.08 11.25 11.56 12.00 12.45 Brisbane / GVMID 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 Burlingame 3.23 3.23 3.23 3.23 3.23 3.23 Coastside CWD 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.01 CWS Total 29.50 29.50 29.50 29.50 29.50 29.50 Daly City 3.55 3.55 3.55 3.55 3.55 3.55 East Palo Alto 1.72 1.72 1.72 1.72 1.72 1.72 Estero MID 3.78 3.78 3.78 3.78 3.78 3.78 Hayward 13.66 13.66 13.66 13.66 13.66 13.66 Hillsborough 2.32 2.32 2.32 2.32 2.32 2.32 Menlo Park 2.72 2.72 2.72 2.72 2.72 2.72 Mid-Peninsula WD 2.34 2.34 2.34 2.34 2.34 2.34 Millbrae 1.81 1.81 1.81 1.81 1.81 1.81 Milpitas 4.68 4.68 4.68 4.68 4.68 4.68 Mountain View 7.69 7.69 7.69 7.69 7.69 7.69 North Coast CWD 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 Palo Alto 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31 Purissima Hills WD 1.51 1.51 1.51 1.51 1.51 1.51 Redwood City 7.43 7.43 7.43 7.43 7.43 7.43 San Bruno 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 San Jose 3.99 3.99 3.99 3.99 3.99 3.99 Santa Clara 2.91 2.91 2.91 2.91 2.91 2.91 Stanford 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 Sunnyvale 10.28 10.28 10.28 10.28 10.28 10.28 Westborough WD 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.70 Total 130.12 130.12 131.28 131.59 132.03 132.48 Wholesale RWS Supply Percent Cutback Consecutive Dry Year Wholesale RWS Demand Base Year Scenario Attachment B: 2025 UWMP Wholesale Customer Dry Year Allocations For UWMP Tables 7-1 through Table 7-4 2030 Without BDP Basis of Water Supply Data 1st/Single 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 133.9 133.9 133.9 133.9 133.9 133.9 133.9 133.9 133.9 133.9 0%0%0%0%0% Projected Supply by Year Type Projected Supply by Year Type Agency 2030 Proj. RWS 1st/Single Dry Year 2nd Dry Year 3rd Dry Year 4th Dry Year 5th Dry Year Alameda CWD 11.25 11.25 11.25 11.25 11.25 11.25 Brisbane / GVMID 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 Burlingame 3.92 3.92 3.92 3.92 3.92 3.92 Coastside CWD 1.17 1.17 1.17 1.17 1.17 1.17 CWS Total 27.04 27.04 27.04 27.04 27.04 27.04 Daly City 4.29 4.29 4.29 4.29 4.29 4.29 East Palo Alto 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.19 Estero MID 3.90 3.90 3.90 3.90 3.90 3.90 Hayward 14.74 14.74 14.74 14.74 14.74 14.74 Hillsborough 2.09 2.09 2.09 2.09 2.09 2.09 Menlo Park 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 Mid-Peninsula WD 2.82 2.82 2.82 2.82 2.82 2.82 Millbrae 1.91 1.91 1.91 1.91 1.91 1.91 Milpitas 5.30 5.30 5.30 5.30 5.30 5.30 Mountain View 7.87 7.87 7.87 7.87 7.87 7.87 North Coast CWD 2.23 2.23 2.23 2.23 2.23 2.23 Palo Alto 8.30 8.30 8.30 8.30 8.30 8.30 Purissima Hills WD 1.36 1.36 1.36 1.36 1.36 1.36 Redwood City 6.84 6.84 6.84 6.84 6.84 6.84 San Bruno 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.85 San Jose 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 Santa Clara 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 Stanford 1.77 1.77 1.77 1.77 1.77 1.77 Sunnyvale 10.72 10.72 10.72 10.72 10.72 10.72 Westborough WD 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.82 Total 133.92 133.92 133.92 133.92 133.92 133.92 Wholesale RWS Supply Percent Cutback Consecutive Dry Year Wholesale RWS Demand Base Year Scenario Attachment B: 2025 UWMP Wholesale Customer Dry Year Allocations For UWMP Tables 7-1 through Table 7-4 2035 Without BDP Basis of Water Supply Data 1st/Single 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 136.3 136.3 136.3 136.3 136.3 136.3 136.3 136.3 136.3 136.3 0%0%0%0%0% Projected Supply by Year Type Projected Supply by Year Type Agency 2035 Proj. RWS 1st/Single Dry Year 2nd Dry Year 3rd Dry Year 4th Dry Year 5th Dry Year Alameda CWD 11.56 11.56 11.56 11.56 11.56 11.56 Brisbane / GVMID 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 Burlingame 3.99 3.99 3.99 3.99 3.99 3.99 Coastside CWD 1.16 1.16 1.16 1.16 1.16 1.16 CWS Total 26.89 26.89 26.89 26.89 26.89 26.89 Daly City 4.29 4.29 4.29 4.29 4.29 4.29 East Palo Alto 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.19 Estero MID 3.92 3.92 3.92 3.92 3.92 3.92 Hayward 15.66 15.66 15.66 15.66 15.66 15.66 Hillsborough 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 Menlo Park 2.64 2.64 2.64 2.64 2.64 2.64 Mid-Peninsula WD 2.97 2.97 2.97 2.97 2.97 2.97 Millbrae 1.99 1.99 1.99 1.99 1.99 1.99 Milpitas 5.35 5.35 5.35 5.35 5.35 5.35 Mountain View 8.12 8.12 8.12 8.12 8.12 8.12 North Coast CWD 2.29 2.29 2.29 2.29 2.29 2.29 Palo Alto 8.20 8.20 8.20 8.20 8.20 8.20 Purissima Hills WD 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 Redwood City 6.54 6.54 6.54 6.54 6.54 6.54 San Bruno 2.27 2.27 2.27 2.27 2.27 2.27 San Jose 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 Santa Clara 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 Stanford 1.96 1.96 1.96 1.96 1.96 1.96 Sunnyvale 11.15 11.15 11.15 11.15 11.15 11.15 Westborough WD 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 Total 136.32 136.32 136.32 136.32 136.32 136.32 Wholesale RWS Supply Percent Cutback Consecutive Dry Year Wholesale RWS Demand Base Year Scenario Attachment B: 2025 UWMP Wholesale Customer Dry Year Allocations For UWMP Tables 7-1 through Table 7-4 2040 Without BDP Basis of Water Supply Data 1st/Single 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 140.6 140.6 140.6 140.6 140.6 140.6 140.6 140.6 140.6 140.6 0%0%0%0%0% Projected Supply by Year Type Projected Supply by Year Type Agency 2040 Proj. RWS 1st/Single Dry Year 2nd Dry Year 3rd Dry Year 4th Dry Year 5th Dry Year Alameda CWD 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 Brisbane / GVMID 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 Burlingame 4.15 4.15 4.15 4.15 4.15 4.15 Coastside CWD 1.16 1.16 1.16 1.16 1.16 1.16 CWS Total 26.93 26.93 26.93 26.93 26.93 26.93 Daly City 4.29 4.29 4.29 4.29 4.29 4.29 East Palo Alto 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.19 Estero MID 3.93 3.93 3.93 3.93 3.93 3.93 Hayward 16.82 16.82 16.82 16.82 16.82 16.82 Hillsborough 2.09 2.09 2.09 2.09 2.09 2.09 Menlo Park 2.71 2.71 2.71 2.71 2.71 2.71 Mid-Peninsula WD 3.18 3.18 3.18 3.18 3.18 3.18 Millbrae 2.09 2.09 2.09 2.09 2.09 2.09 Milpitas 5.41 5.41 5.41 5.41 5.41 5.41 Mountain View 8.59 8.59 8.59 8.59 8.59 8.59 North Coast CWD 2.37 2.37 2.37 2.37 2.37 2.37 Palo Alto 8.15 8.15 8.15 8.15 8.15 8.15 Purissima Hills WD 1.36 1.36 1.36 1.36 1.36 1.36 Redwood City 6.73 6.73 6.73 6.73 6.73 6.73 San Bruno 2.68 2.68 2.68 2.68 2.68 2.68 San Jose 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 Santa Clara 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 Stanford 2.02 2.02 2.02 2.02 2.02 2.02 Sunnyvale 11.92 11.92 11.92 11.92 11.92 11.92 Westborough WD 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 Total 140.57 140.57 140.57 140.57 140.57 140.57 Wholesale RWS Supply Percent Cutback Consecutive Dry Year Wholesale RWS Demand Base Year Scenario Attachment B: 2025 UWMP Wholesale Customer Dry Year Allocations For UWMP Tables 7-1 through Table 7-4 2045 Without BDP Basis of Water Supply Data 1st/Single 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 144.1 144.1 144.1 144.1 144.1 144.1 144.1 144.1 144.1 144.1 0%0%0%0%0% Projected Supply by Year Type Projected Supply by Year Type Agency 2045 Proj. RWS 1st/Single Dry Year 2nd Dry Year 3rd Dry Year 4th Dry Year 5th Dry Year Alameda CWD 12.45 12.45 12.45 12.45 12.45 12.45 Brisbane / GVMID 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 Burlingame 4.30 4.30 4.30 4.30 4.30 4.30 Coastside CWD 1.16 1.16 1.16 1.16 1.16 1.16 CWS Total 26.80 26.80 26.80 26.80 26.80 26.80 Daly City 4.29 4.29 4.29 4.29 4.29 4.29 East Palo Alto 1.18 1.18 1.18 1.18 1.18 1.18 Estero MID 3.91 3.91 3.91 3.91 3.91 3.91 Hayward 18.14 18.14 18.14 18.14 18.14 18.14 Hillsborough 2.11 2.11 2.11 2.11 2.11 2.11 Menlo Park 2.76 2.76 2.76 2.76 2.76 2.76 Mid-Peninsula WD 3.39 3.39 3.39 3.39 3.39 3.39 Millbrae 2.18 2.18 2.18 2.18 2.18 2.18 Milpitas 5.46 5.46 5.46 5.46 5.46 5.46 Mountain View 9.04 9.04 9.04 9.04 9.04 9.04 North Coast CWD 2.36 2.36 2.36 2.36 2.36 2.36 Palo Alto 8.15 8.15 8.15 8.15 8.15 8.15 Purissima Hills WD 1.36 1.36 1.36 1.36 1.36 1.36 Redwood City 6.91 6.91 6.91 6.91 6.91 6.91 San Bruno 2.68 2.68 2.68 2.68 2.68 2.68 San Jose 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 Santa Clara 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 Stanford 2.07 2.07 2.07 2.07 2.07 2.07 Sunnyvale 12.58 12.58 12.58 12.58 12.58 12.58 Westborough WD 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 Total 144.11 144.11 144.11 144.11 144.11 144.11 Wholesale RWS Supply Percent Cutback Consecutive Dry Year Wholesale RWS Demand Base Year Scenario Attachment B: 2025 UWMP Wholesale Customer Dry Year Allocations For UWMP Tables 7-2 through Table 7-4 2050 Without BDP Basis of Water Supply Data 1st/Single 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 148.3 148.3 148.3 148.3 148.3 148.3 148.3 148.3 148.3 148.3 0%0%0%0%0% Projected Supply by Year Type Agency 2050 Proj. RWS 1st/Single Dry Year 2nd Dry Year 3rd Dry Year 4th Dry Year 5th Dry Year Alameda CWD 13.76 13.76 13.76 13.76 13.76 13.76 Brisbane / GVMID 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 Burlingame 4.44 4.44 4.44 4.44 4.44 4.44 Coastside CWD 1.16 1.16 1.16 1.16 1.16 1.16 CWS Total 26.89 26.89 26.89 26.89 26.89 26.89 Daly City 4.29 4.29 4.29 4.29 4.29 4.29 East Palo Alto 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.19 Estero MID 3.90 3.90 3.90 3.90 3.90 3.90 Hayward 19.71 19.71 19.71 19.71 19.71 19.71 Hillsborough 2.12 2.12 2.12 2.12 2.12 2.12 Menlo Park 2.83 2.83 2.83 2.83 2.83 2.83 Mid-Peninsula WD 3.43 3.43 3.43 3.43 3.43 3.43 Millbrae 2.29 2.29 2.29 2.29 2.29 2.29 Milpitas 5.52 5.52 5.52 5.52 5.52 5.52 Mountain View 9.55 9.55 9.55 9.55 9.55 9.55 North Coast CWD 2.36 2.36 2.36 2.36 2.36 2.36 Palo Alto 8.18 8.18 8.18 8.18 8.18 8.18 Purissima Hills WD 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.37 Redwood City 7.09 7.09 7.09 7.09 7.09 7.09 San Bruno 2.68 2.68 2.68 2.68 2.68 2.68 San Jose 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 Santa Clara 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 Stanford 2.13 2.13 2.13 2.13 2.13 2.13 Sunnyvale 12.58 12.58 12.58 12.58 12.58 12.58 Westborough WD 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 Total 148.35 148.35 148.35 148.35 148.35 148.35 Percent Cutback Wholesale RWS Supply Wholesale RWS Demand Consecutive Dry Year Scenario Base Year March 31, 2026 www.paloalto.gov Upcoming Draft 2025 Urban Water Management Plan Preliminary Update Utilities Advisory Commission 2 PURPOSE •Background •Key Updates •Long-term water demand projections •Water reliability assessment •Water use restrictions •Use and planned use of recycled water •Next Steps AGENDA •This item is for discussion, and no action is requested. •Key updates to the City’s upcoming draft 2025 Urban Water Management Plan (UWMP) are being presented to the Utilities Advisory Commission (UAC) for discussion. Staff will return to the UAC in May 2026 for a recommendation to Council to adopt the 2025 UWMP. 3 BACKGROUND •State requires urban water suppliers to adopt an UWMP every five years demonstrating water supply reliability over a 20-year planning timeframe based on development plans in normal, dry and multiple dry years. •Suppliers must have a current UWMP on file to be eligible for any water grant or loan administered by the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) and the State Water Resources Control Board. •City is drawing up to $192 million on a reimbursement basis from a State Revolving Fund loan to finance the Secondary Treatment Upgrades project at the Regional Water Quality Control Plant. •2025 UWMP must be adopted by City Council and submitted to the DWR by July 1, 2026. •Regional and local demand forecasts can be updated as needed for supply planning purposes, including San Francisco Public Utilities Commission (SFPUC)'s alternative water supply planning. 4 REQUIRED INPUTS •Inputs from City •City planning documents (i.e., Housing Element, Regional Housing Needs Allocation [RHNA]). •Population projections from state, regional, or local agencies for the service area (i.e., ABAG 2040). •Adopted codes, standards, ordinances that drive water savings assumptions. •Inputs from Supplier – SFPUC •Supply availability for normal, single dry, and multiple dry years. •Based on wholesale agencies’ purchase projections. •Constraints/assumptions that affect supply availability. 5 LONG-TERM WATER DEMAND PROJECTIONS 2025 Demand Study •Prepared for the City in coordination with Bay Area Water Supply & Conservation Agency (BAWSCA) to support regional planning efforts and to facilitate preparation of the 2025 UWMP. •Direct input for the water demand, supply, and reliability projections for the City’s 2025 UWMP. •Model developed by BAWSCA’s technical consultant, Hazen and Sawyer, utilizing information provided by staff to project water demand through 2050. •Intended as a planning tool. Designed to be “scenario-ready” so that core assumptions can be varied as planning needs and conditions evolve. Not intended to predict the future. 6 •2025 Demand Forecast (orange line) •Reflects a 5% decrease in demand over the forecast period. •Ranges from 9% to 19% below the 2020 Demand Study forecast (purple line) HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED DEMAND COMPARISONS 7 WATER RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT Projected Regional Water System (RWS) Wholesale Multiple Dry-Year Cutbacks, With Bay-Delta Plan - 2025 UWMP vs 2020 UWMP 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 31.1%31.1%42.2%42.2%42.2% 33.0%33.0%42.9%42.9%42.9% 35.2%35.2%45.1%45.1%45.1% 36.8%36.8%46.8%46.8%46.8% 38.4%38.4%48.4%48.4%48.4% 36.3%36.5%36.5%45.5% 45.4%45.6%45.6%45.5% 45.4%45.6%45.6%45.5% 45.4%45.6%52.0%53.7% 45.4%50.1%52.0%53.7% 2025 Urban Water Management Plan 2020 Urban Water Management Plan Fifth Year Fourth Year Third Year Second Year First Year First Year Second Year Third Year Fourth Year Fifth Year Factors: •2025 RWS demand assumptions are about 11% lower than in 2020. •Changes to Water System Improvement Project (WSIP) project assumptions. 8 WATER USE RESTRICTIONS City of Palo Alto Existing Permanent Water Use Restrictions: •No flooding, runoff, use automatic shut-off valves. •Repair leaks, broken irrigation systems. •Use non-potable water when available for non-potable purposes (decorative fountains, car washes, etc.). •No potable irrigation between 10 a.m. - 6 p.m. New Requirements: •Compliance with California Assembly Bill 1572 - prohibiting the use of (potable) drinking water on non-functional turf (decorative grass). State legislation goes into effect on January 1: •2027: Government properties; •2028: All Commercial, Industrial and Institutional properties; •2029: Homeowners' Association common areas.