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HomeMy WebLinkAboutStaff Report 2512-56412.Staff Recommends the Utilities Advisory Commission Recommend that the City Council Adopt a Resolution Approving the Fiscal Year 2027 Gas Utility Financial Forecast, Reserve Transfer, General Fund Transfer, and Amending Rate Schedules G-1 (Residential Gas Service), G-2 (Residential Master-Metered and Commercial Gas Service), and G-3 (Large Commercial Gas Service) ; CEQA Status: Not a project under CEQA Guidelines Section 15378(b)(5) (ACTION: 6:35PM – 7:35PM) Staff Presentation 1 6 0 8 0 Utilities Advisory Commission Staff Report From: Alan Kurotori, Director of Utilities Lead Department: Utilities Meeting Date: March 31, 2026 Report #: 2512-5641 TITLE Staff Recommends the Utilities Advisory Commission Recommend that the City Council Adopt a Resolution Approving the Fiscal Year 2027 Gas Utility Financial Forecast, Reserve Transfer, General Fund Transfer, and Amending Rate Schedules G-1 (Residential Gas Service), G-2 (Residential Master-Metered and Commercial Gas Service), and G-3 (Large Commercial Gas Service) ; CEQA Status: Not a project under CEQA Guidelines Section 15378(b)(5) RECOMMENDATION Staff recommends that the Utilities Advisory Commission (UAC) recommend that the City Council adopt a resolution (Attachment A): 1. Approving the Fiscal Year 2027 Gas Utility Financial Forecast shown in this staff report and attachments, which includes amending the Gas Utility Reserve Management Practices; and 2. Approving the transfer of up to $1.5 million from the Gas Utility Operations Reserve to the Distribution Rate Stabilization Reserve at the end of FY 2026; and 3. Transferring up to 18% of gas utility gross revenues received during FY 2025 (up to $10.7 million) to the General Fund in FY 2027; and 4. Amending Rate Schedules (Attachment A, Exhibit 1) effective July 1, 2026 (FY2027): a. G-1 (Residential Gas Service) b. G-2 (Residential Master-Metered and Commercial Gas Service) c. G-3 (Large Commercial Gas Service) EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This staff report provides the UAC with a financial forecast for the Gas Utility and provides an overview of the utility’s operations costs, capital costs, and debt and includes recommended rate adjustments required to maintain the utility’s financial health. The Gas Utility financial forecast proposes a 9% overall rate increase for FY 2027, which includes a 14.5% increase to distribution rates, assuming no change in supply costs, effective July 1, 2026. Additionally, this forecast projects overall rate increases of 7% in FY 2028, and 6% annually from FY 2029 through FY 2031. 2 6 0 8 0 Staff updated cost projections for the FY 2027 to FY 2031 five-year financial planning period using the most recent load forecast, cost data, and escalation assumptions. Relative to the FY 2026 financial forecast1, the updated forecast projects total gas usage to be about on average 4% lower in the FY 2027 to FY 2031 period, resulting in decreased retail sales revenue. Total expenses are expected to be about 8% lower than projected over the same period, driven primarily by lower supply purchase due to lower sales, and lower general fund transfers from lower revenues. Table 1: Current Year (FY2026) and Projected Overall Rate Trajectory (FY 2027 to FY 2031) 2, and the Finance Committee on November 18, 20253, staff presented a rate trajectory of 9% in FY 2027, 7% in FY 2028, and 6% annually from FY 2029 through FY 2031. The current forecast maintains the same rate changes but reduces the rate increase from 8% to 6% in FY 2031. BACKGROUND 1 FY 2026 Financial Forecast for the Gas utility (approved June 16, 2025) is described in the Finance Committee Staff Report 2412-3868: https://recordsportal.paloalto.gov/WebLink/DocView.aspx?id=64777&dbid=0&repo=PaloAlto 2 Staff Report 2503-4364: https://recordsportal.paloalto.gov/WebLink/DocView.aspx?id=84164&dbid=0&repo=PaloAlto 3 Staff Report 2508-5119: https://recordsportal.paloalto.gov/WebLink/DocView.aspx?id=83887&dbid=0&repo=PaloAlto 3 6 0 8 0 The City is committed to transparency with utilities customers about the reason for rate changes, including explaining the cost drivers, benefits to customers, what the City is doing to manage costs for ratepayers, and the services and programs provided by the City to help customers keep utility bill costs affordable. Staff prepare the financial forecast annually as part of the rate-setting cycle. Attachment A, Exhibit 3 contains a set of Reserves Management Practices describing the reserves. Attachment A, Exhibit 4 outlines CPAU’s plan for communicating rate changes to customers. Next steps include presenting an overview of the financial forecast and rate change proposal for each utility service to the Finance Committee in April and to the City Council in June 2026. ANALYSIS FY 2025 Costs and Revenues Table 2: FY 2025 Actuals vs. Prior Year’s Forecast ($000) Net Cost/ (Benefit) Variance Type of Change Net Cost / (Benefit) of Variances (547)Net Cost Decrease Projections Overview 4 6 0 8 0 mainly due to lower projected operations and maintenance costs, including the deferral of the Crossbore project from FY 2026 to FY 2027. Additionally, CIP costs in FY 2026 are expected to be about $3.7 million (23%) higher, primarily due to higher projected CIP costs. Figure 1: Gas Utility Expenses, Revenues, Rate Changes Excluding Supply-Related Changes *FY25 Commitments and Reappropriations reserves balances for Operations and Capital Investment are anticipated to be utilized in FY 2026 and FY 2027. Note: Excludes Cap-and-Invest auction sales revenue and Cap-and-Invest-related expenses, which directly impacts the Cap-and-Invest reserve. 5 6 0 8 0 Load Forecast Gas usage in Palo Alto declined from FY 2020 to FY 2022, mainly due to the impacts of the COVID- 19 pandemic. However, FY 2023 saw an increase in gas usage, likely driven by a modest recovery from COVID-19 effects and colder than average winter temperatures. However, like previous declines in gas usage due to economic factors, it is unlikely that consumption will return to pre- pandemic levels. Instead, a long-term decline in gas usage is expected. Further changes, such as the voluntary replacement of gas appliances with electric appliances and building electrification are also expected to lower long-term usage. Staff will conduct strategic planning and financial analysis separately from this financial forecast to develop a financial and infrastructure strategy for the Gas Utility as the community electrifies. Any insights from that analyses will be integrated into future financial forecasts. Staff worked with a consultant to assist in the development of an updated gas load forecast, which included statistically adjusted end-use (SAE) modeling, weather-normalized modeling, economic factors, and high electrification assumption. The FY 2025 actual gas supply purchases totaled 25,436,120 therms, representing a decrease of about 8% compared to projections in the FY 2026 financial forecast. The lower-than-anticipated gas supply purchases in FY 2025 were primarily due to lower residential consumption, particularly during the winter season, along with improvements in energy efficiency and electrification-driven fuel-switching away from gas. The result, shown in Figure 2, projects gas supply load for FY 2027 at 25,239,664 therms, about 3% lower than prior year’s forecast. This downward projection was driven by weather-normalized lower consumption in FY 2025. Over time, declining gas consumption is expected to increase pressure on rates, as rising and fixed costs for gas operations and distribution will need to be allocated across fewer units sold. 0M 5M 10M 15M 20M 25M 30M 35M 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 Th e r m s Fiscal Year Actual Load FY26 Load Forecast FY27 Load Forecast 6 6 0 8 0 Revenues This financial forecast bases sales revenue projections on the load forecast. Except where stated otherwise, these load forecasts are based on normal weather. Variations in weather have a substantial impact on revenues. Changes in customer behavior, gas appliance efficiency improvements, and electrification also impact gas usage. Staff regularly monitor emerging trends and make updates to forecasts as needed. The Gas Utility’s costs fall into two main categories: gas supply costs and distribution-related costs. Gas supply costs are the cost of the gas itself, transmission of the gas to Palo Alto, and environmental expenses. These supply-related costs vary with the market or are set by other entities and are passed through to customers. Distribution-related costs cover the operation and capital improvement of the distribution system, and overall business operations, and are collected through a distribution rate adjusted annually. Table 3 shows total Gas Utility costs. The operations and capital costs are considered distribution costs. Commodity 8,918 10,270 11,383 10,717 10,373 10,263 9,631 Transportation 6,610 6,800 6,915 7,019 7,174 7,347 7,635 Carbon Offset 961 1,147 1,198 1,244 1,291 1,340 1,411 Cap-and-Invest 2,669 3,867 4,032 4,613 5,241 5,920 6,361 Operations 33,375 35,361 36,635 36,834 38,786 40,316 42,178 Capital 8,176 19,499 22,829 11,914 17,776 11,411 15,266 Supply Costs Overall, supply expenses are projected to increase by an average of about 2% annually from FY 2027 through FY 2031. Gas commodity costs, which are the most variable component, account for the largest share of overall costs. Although market forecasts currently indicate that gas prices will remain relatively steady over the next several years, those forecasts are highly uncertain. The financial forecast assumes that gas prices decrease by an average of about 4% annually during the forecast period. 7 6 0 8 0 Transportation and environmental compliance costs are expected to rise gradually over the forecast period. PG&E's local transportation rates, which have experienced steady increases in recent years, are expected to rise by an average of 3% per year throughout the forecast period7. 8 9) and Council’s goal of reducing GHGs 80% by 2030, Palo Alto began allocating Cap-and-Invest reserves to support programs such as the Full-Service Heat Pump Water Heater Program. In Calendar Year 2024, Palo Alto received about $3.35 million in revenue from freely allocated allowances from the State. About $0.72 million was spent on the heat pump water heater direct installation and incentive program, while the remaining $2.63 million was transferred to the Gas Cap-and-Invest reserve at the end of FY 2025 to fund future gas GHG emissions reduction programs. The Gas Cap-and-Invest reserve has about $15.05 million at the end of FY 2025. The types of S/CAP related expenditures for Gas Cap-and-Invest revenues are for residential and non- residential building electrification pilot programs. 10, which involves purchasing carbon offsets equivalent to the emissions generated by the community's natural gas use. These high-quality offsets fund projects that reduce GHG emissions, such as forest conservation or methane capture from dairy farms. While purchasing carbon offsets is an important initial step in reducing carbon emissions, the long-term goal is to decrease the community's natural gas usage by maximizing efficiency and transitioning to high-efficiency electric appliances where feasible. Carbon offset purchases totaled about $1.1 million in FY 2025, and carbon offset costs are projected to rise by 4% annually through the forecast period. 7 The transportation rates for calendar years 2023-2026 reflect the rates in the adopted PG&E 2023 Gas Transmission & Storage (GT&S) Cost Allocation and Rate Design (CARD) (D.24-03-002), afterward a 3% escalation rate is applied. 8 Based on allowance broker quotes. 9 Council Resolution 10077: https://recordsportal.paloalto.gov/WebLink/DocView.aspx?id=61567&dbid=0&repo=PaloAlto 10 Staff Report 7441: https://recordsportal.paloalto.gov/WebLink/DocView.aspx?id=80132&dbid=0&repo=PaloAlto 8 6 0 8 0 prices. Funds collected from the gas price mitigation adder accrue in the Gas Distribution Rate Stabilization Reserve and can be used to offset the impact of a potential gas market price spike above the maximum gas commodity charge to customers. Through this program, about $1 million has been funded and allocated in the Gas Distribution Rate Stabilization Reserve at the end of FY 2025. The program is designed to fund the reserve over a three-year period through the adder, which is expected to result in approximately $4.5 million over three years to hedge against future short-term gas price spikes. Figure 3: Gas Distribution Utility Operations Costs 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 Actuals Projection $ M i l l i o n s Fiscal Year Debt Service Demand Side Management Resource Management Customer Service Administration Operations & Maintenance Transfers 9 6 0 8 0 Capital Improvement Program 10 6 0 8 0 Table 4 shows the CIP cost categories and projected spending. Table 4: Projected CIP Spending ($000) *Includes unspent funds from previous years carried forward or reappropriated **A portion of project salaries and benefits has been allocated to the Gas Main Replacement budget in the table above for FY 2027-31, with a larger share assigned in FY 2027 to meet grant reimbursement requirements Table 5: Debt Service Coverage Ratio ($000) FY 2026 Debt Service 802 Reserves 11 6 0 8 0 Figure 4: Operations Reserve Projection Table 6 summarizes the risk assessment calculation for the Gas Utility through FY 2031. The risk assessment is intended to be covered by the Operations Reserve and includes the revenue shortfall that could occur due to: 1. Maximum non-commodity revenue percentage variance from the previous ten years; and 2. An increase of 10% of planned system improvement CIP expenditures for the budget year. CIP Contingency for FY 2030 and after is not needed due to resuming the use of the CIP reserve. Total Distribution Revenue 39,847 45,114 49,670 53,641 57,877 62,454 Risk of Revenue Loss @14% 5,591 6,330 6,970 7,527 8,121 8,763 CIP Budget 19,499 22,829 11,914 17,776 - - CIP Contingency @10%* 1,950 2,283 1,191 1,778 - - *CIP budget is excluded from FY 2030 onward Staff estimates that the gas price mitigation adder in the gas commodity charge will collect about $1.36 million in FY 2026 for the gas hedging program15. Although these funds are initially collected in the Operations Reserve, they should be transferred to the Gas Distribution Rate Stabilization Reserve to be available to mitigate the impact of potential gas market price spikes 15 Staff Report 2401-2510: https://recordsportal.paloalto.gov/WebLink/DocView.aspx?id=82970&dbid=0&repo=PaloAlto; the utility collected about $1.05 million for this program in FY 2025, which was transferred from the Operations Reserve to the Gas Distribution Rate Stabilization reserve at the end of FY 2025. 12 6 0 8 0 exceeding the maximum gas commodity charge to customers. Staff proposes transferring up to $1.5 million 11 6 0 8 0 12 6 0 8 0 from the Gas Utility Operations Reserve to the Gas Distribution Rate Stabilization Reserve at the end of FY 2026. The projected transfer is listed in row 12 in Table 7 below and the amount is included in part of the Operations transfer out in row 11. The exact transfer amount will be determined at year end based on calculations aligned with the gas hedging program. Reserve Balances Figure 5: Gas CIP Reserve Levels 13 6 0 8 0 Figure 6: Gas Utility Year-End Reserves Levels Note: Excludes Cap-and-Invest Reserve 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 Actuals Projection $ M i l l i o n s Fiscal Year CIP Reserve Distribution Rate Stabilization Commitments & Reappropriations Operations Reserve 14 6 0 8 0 Table 7: Operations, CIP, Cap-and-Invest, and Debt Service Reserve Starting and Ending Balances, Revenues, Transfers To/(From) Reserves, Capital Program Contribution To/(From) Reserves, Total Reserve Changes, and Reserve Guideline Levels ($000) *Operations Reserve represents the Gas Supply Fund Rate Stabilization Reserve and the Gas Distribution Fund Operations Reserve combined. 15 6 0 8 0 Proposed Rates Table 11 shows the current and proposed monthly service charges, and Table 12 shows the current and proposed distribution volumetric charges for all rate schedules. As previously noted, supply-related charges are pass-through charges that are updated periodically. The latest charges are shown in the City’s Rates website17. The proposed rates reflect the proposed rate increases compared to the current rates, which are based on the Natural Gas Cost of Service and Rate Study and were adopted by City Council at the December 1, 2025 meeting18. (as of 2/1/2026)(effective 7/1/2026)($)(%) G-1 (Residential)$ 19.58 $ 22.41 $ 2.83 14.5% G-2 (Small Commercial) G-2 (≤ 220 scfh)$ 29.24 $ 33.47 $ 4.23 14.5% G-2 (> 220 and < 4,000 scfh) 94.56 108.27 13.71 14.5% G-2 (≥ 4,000 scfh) 419.08 479.84 60.76 14.5% G-3 (Large Commercial)$ 1,712.36 $ 1,960.65 $ 248.29 14.5% (as of 2/1/2026)(effective 7/1/2026)($)(%) (Residential) Tier 1 Rates $ 1.0456 $ 1.1972 $ 0.1516 14.5% Tier 2 Rates 2.5203 2.8857 0.3654 14.5% (Residential Master-Metered and Small Commercial) Uniform Rate $ 1.2204 $ 1.3973 $ 0.1769 14.5% (Large Commercial) Uniform Rate $ 1.1874 $ 1.3595 $ 0.1721 14.5% Table 13 shows the impact of the proposed July 1, 2026 rate changes on the median monthly residential bill for representative average winter and summer bills, excluding supply-related cost changes. The annual gas bill for the median residential customer is projected to be 9% 17 City’s Rates Website https://www.cityofpaloalto.org/files/assets/public/v/25/utilities/rates-schedules-for- utilities/residential-utility-rates/monthly-gas-volumetric-and-service-charges-residential-3.pdf 18 Staff Report 2506-4908: https://recordsportal.paloalto.gov/WebLink/DocView.aspx?id=84117&dbid=0&repo=PaloAlto 16 6 0 8 0 higher in FY 2027 than FY 2026. The actual impact may be different because customer gas usage varies and commodity price changes monthly. Table 13: Bill Impact of Proposed G-1 Gas Rate Changes ($/Month) ChangeUsage Bill Amount 1) Bill Amount 2) Summer (Apr-Oct) Winter (Nov-Mar) Annual Median 1. Calculated based on FY25 actual supply rates with current distribution rates; assumes current distribution rates were effective for the full year. If the current rate calculation instead applies Council-approved rates for July 2025 – January 2026, followed by cost-based adjustments from February 2026 – June 2026, the residential bill is projected to increase by about 14% from FY26 to FY27. 2. Calculated based on FY25 actual supply rates with proposed distribution rates; assumes no change to supply-related rates. Table 14: Bill Impact of Proposed G-2 and G-3 Gas Rate Changes ($/Month) ChangeUsageBill Amount 1) Bill Amount (Proposed Rates2) G-2 (Residential Master-Metered and Small Commercial) G-3 (Large Commercial) 1. Calculated based on FY25 actual supply rates with current distribution rates 2. Calculated assuming no change to supply-related rates 17 6 0 8 0 Bill Comparisons/Competitiveness Table 15 presents the median residential bills for Palo Alto and Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E) customers. The bill calculations for PG&E customers are based on PG&E Climate Zone X, an area which includes Palo Alto’s surrounding communities. The calculated monthly gas bill for the median Palo Alto residential customer is about 11% lower than that of a PG&E customer with equivalent consumption. This difference is primarily attributable to the City’s fixed monthly service charge; PG&E does not apply a similar charge. (Therms) Summer 17 $ 51 $ 39 30% Winter 51 117 157 (26%) Annual Average 31 78 88 (11%) Note: Calculated based on FY25 actual supply rates with current distribution rates Table 16 presents the median monthly commercial bills for Palo Alto and PG&E customers. Palo Alto bills have been higher than PG&E’s bills over the years, mainly due to higher service charges. (Therms) Commercial 280*$ 668 $ 583 15% Large Commercial 20,834**43,576 29,637 47% Note: Calculated based on FY25 actual supply rates with current distribution rates *Based on median usage for Palo Alto G-2 rate class with meter capacity of >220 and <4,000 Scfh **Based on annual usage of about 250,000 therms Because the Cap and Trade program has been renamed the Cap-and-Invest program, this staff report requests the renaming of the Cap and Trade Reserve to the Cap-and-Invest Reserve. In accordance with Section 11 of the Gas Reserve Management Practices and Council-approved Cap-and-Invest revenue uses (Council Resolution 1007721), staff is authorized to transfer revenues from allocated allowance auction proceeds to the Cap-and-Invest Reserve at the end of each fiscal year. Additionally, staff may utilize funds from the Cap-and-Invest Reserve to 21 Council Resolution 10077: https://recordsportal.paloalto.gov/WebLink/DocView.aspx?id=61567&dbid=0&repo=PaloAlto 18 6 0 8 0 support greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction programs by transferring funds from the Cap-and- Invest Reserve to the Operations Reserve. General Fund Transfer Next Steps FISCAL/RESOURCE IMPACT POLICY IMPLICATIONS 19 6 0 8 0 STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT On November 5, 202523, staff presented the preliminary rate proposals at the UAC meeting. Some Commissioners raised affordability concerns and expressed interest in exploring innovative operating cost reductions rather than relying on the traditional approach of deferring capital investments. On November 18, 202524, staff presented the same preliminary rate proposals to the Finance Committee. Committee members focused on benchmarking rates against comparable utilities. They also inquired about cost-containment strategies. Additional discussion centered on reserve guidelines and the associated risk assessment. Members emphasized that the absence of rate increases during the pandemic created a catch-up scenario that should be avoided in the future. Additional feedback from the UAC and Finance Committee meetings in 2026 will be incorporated in the financial forecast and included in the proposal presented to City Council in June 2026 concurrent with the budget adoption process. Attachment A, Exhibit 4 contains examples of CPAU’s communication and outreach methods including the use of the Utilities website, utility bill inserts, messaging on utility bills, and MyCPAU online account management platform, email newsletters, print and digital ads in local publications, social media, and community messaging platforms. The UAC’s review and recommendation to the Finance Committee on the FY 2027 Gas Utility financial forecast and rate adjustments does not meet the California Environmental Quality Act’s definition of a project, pursuant to Public Resources Code Section 21065, thus no environmental review is required. Attachment A: FY27 Gas Resolution Attachment A, Exhibit 1: FY27 Gas Rate Schedules Attachment A, Exhibit 2: FY27 Gas Utility Financial Details Attachment A, Exhibit 3: FY27 Gas Reserve Management Practices Attachment A, Exhibit 4: FY27 Gas Communications Plan : Alan Kurotori, Director of Utilities Staff: Eric Wong, Resource Planner 23 Staff Report 2503-4364: https://recordsportal.paloalto.gov/WebLink/DocView.aspx?id=84164&dbid=0&repo=PaloAlto 24 Staff Report 2508-5119: https://recordsportal.paloalto.gov/WebLink/DocView.aspx?id=83887&dbid=0&repo=PaloAlto Attachment A *NOT YET APPROVED* 6059739 1 Resolution No. Resolution of the Council of the City of Palo Alto Approving the Fiscal Year 2027 Gas Utility Financial Forecast and Reserve Transfers, General Fund Transfer, and Amending Rate Schedules G-1 (Residential Gas Service), G-2 (Residential Master-Metered and Commercial Gas Service), and G-3 (Large Commercial Gas Service) R E C I T A L S A. Each year the City of Palo Alto (“City”) regularly assesses the financial position of its utilities with the goal of ensuring adequate revenue to fund operations, including reserves. This includes making long-term projections of market conditions, the physical condition of the system, and other factors that could affect utility costs, and setting rates adequate to recover these costs. It does this with the goal of providing safe, reliable, and sustainable utility services at competitive rates. The City adopts Financial Forecasts or Plans to summarize these projections. B. The City uses reserves to protect against contingencies and to manage other aspects of its operations, and regularly assesses the adequacy of these reserves and the management practices governing their operation. The status of utility reserves and their management practices are included in Reserves Management Practices attached to and made part of the Financial Forecasts or Plans. C. Pursuant to Chapter 12.20.010 of the Palo Alto Municipal Code, the Council of the City of Palo Alto may by resolution adopt rules and regulations governing utility services, fees and charges. D. On June 15, 2026, the City Council heard and approved the proposed rate increase at a noticed public hearing. The Council of the City of Palo Alto does hereby RESOLVE as follows: SECTION 1. The Council hereby approves the Amended Reserves Management Practices (Exhibit 3 1) and FY 2027 Gas Utility Financial Forecast presented to the Finance Committee on March 17, 2026 2 and updated by the June 15, 2026 Council report, (Exhibit 2 3), which is attached to this resolution and made a part of the staff report presented to the City Council. SECTION 2. The Council hereby approves the transfer of up to $1.5 million from the Gas Utility Operations Reserve to the Distribution Rate Stabilization Reserve at the end of FY 2026. SECTION 3. The Council hereby approves the transfer of up to 18% of gas utility gross revenues received during FY 2025 to the general fund in FY 2027. 1 Exhibit 3 <<link>> 2 Meeting Agenda Item #: XX <<link>> 3 Exhibit 2 <<link>> Attachment A *NOT YET APPROVED* 6059739 2 SECTION 4. Pursuant to Section 12.20.010 of the Palo Alto Municipal Code, Utility Rate Schedule G-1 (Residential Gas Service) is hereby amended to read as shown in Exhibit 14. Utility Rate Schedule G-1, as amended, shall become effective July 1, 2026. SECTION 5. Pursuant to Section 12.20.010 of the Palo Alto Municipal Code, Utility Rate Schedule G-2 (Residential Master-Metered and Commercial Gas Service) is hereby amended to read as shown in Exhibit 1. Utility Rate Schedule G-2, as amended, shall become effective July 1, 2026. SECTION 6. Pursuant to Section 12.20.010 of the Palo Alto Municipal Code, Utility Rate Schedule G-3 (Large Commercial Gas Service) is hereby amended to read as shown in Exhibit 1. Utility Rate Schedule G-3, as amended, shall become effective July 1, 2026. SECTION 7. The City Council finds that revenues derived from the gas rates approved by this resolution do not exceed the funds required to provide gas service and shall not be used for any purpose other than providing gas service, and the purposes set forth in Article VII, Section 2, of the Charter of the City of Palo Alto. SECTION 8. The Council finds that the fees and charges adopted by this resolution are charges imposed for a specific government service or product provided directly to the payor that are not provided to those not charged, and do not exceed the reasonable costs to the City of providing the service or product. // // // // // // 4 Exhibit 1 <<link>> Attachment A *NOT YET APPROVED* 6059739 3 SECTION 9. The Council finds that approving the FY 2027 Gas Utility Financial Forecast does not meet the California Environmental Quality Act’s (CEQA) definition of a project under Public Resources Code Section 21065 and CEQA Guidelines Section 15378(b)(5), because it is an administrative governmental activity which will not cause a direct or indirect physical change in the environment, and therefore, no environmental assessment is required. The Council finds that changing gas rates to meet operating expenses, purchase supplies and materials, meet financial reserve needs and obtain funds for capital improvements necessary to maintain service is not subject to the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA), pursuant to California Public Resources Code Sec. 21080(b)(8) and Title 14 of the California Code of Regulations Sec. 15273(a). After reviewing the staff report and all attachments presented to Council, the Council incorporates these documents herein and finds that sufficient evidence has been presented setting forth with specificity the basis for this claim of CEQA exemption. INTRODUCED AND PASSED: AYES: NOES: ABSENT: ABSTENTIONS: ATTEST: City Clerk Mayor APPROVED AS TO FORM: APPROVED: Assistant City Attorney City Manager Director of Utilities Director of Administrative Services RESIDENTIAL GAS SERVICE UTILITY RATE SCHEDULE G-1 CITY OF PALO ALTO UTILITIES Issued by the City Council Supersedes Sheet No G-1-1 Effective 027-01-2026 dated 072-01-20265 Sheet No G-1-1 A. APPLICABILITY: This schedule applies to the following Customers receiving Gas Service from City of Palo Alto Utilities: 1.Separately-metered single-family residential Customers; 2.Separately-metered multi-family residential Customers in multi-family residential facilities. B. TERRITORY: This schedule applies everywhere the City of Palo Alto provides Gas Service. C. UNBUNDLED RATES:Per Service Monthly Service Charge: .............................................................................................$ 22.42 19.58 Tier 1 Rates: Per Therm Supply Charges: 1.Commodity (Monthly Market-Based) ......................................... $0.10-$4.00 2.Cap and Trade Compliance Charge ............................................ Pass-through 3. Transportation Charge ................................................................. Pass-through 4.Carbon Offset Charge .................................................................. $0.00-$0.10 Distribution Charge:.......................................................................................$ 1.1971 1.0456 Tier 2 Rates: (All usage over 100% of Tier 1) Supply Charges: 1.Commodity (Monthly Market-Based) ......................................... $0.10-$4.00 2.Cap and Trade Compliance Charge ............................................. Pass-through 3. Transportation Charge ................................................................. Pass-through 4.Carbon Offset Charge .................................................................. $0.00-$0.10 Distribution Charge:.............................................................................................$ 2.8857 2.5203 Attachment A, Exhibit 1 RESIDENTIAL GAS SERVICE UTILITY RATE SCHEDULE G-1 CITY OF PALO ALTO UTILITIES Issued by the City Council Supersedes Sheet No G-1-2 Effective 027-01-2026 dated 072-01-20265 Sheet No G-1-2 D. SPECIAL NOTES: 1. Calculation of Cost Components The actual bill amount is calculated based on the applicable rates in Section C above and adjusted for any applicable discounts, surcharges and/or Taxes. On a Customer’s bill statement, the bill amount may be broken down into appropriate components as calculated under Section C. The Commodity Charge is based on the monthly natural gas Bidweek Price Index for delivery at PG&E Citygate, adjusted to account for delivery losses to the Customer’s Meter. The Commodity Charge also includes adjustments to account for Council- approved programs implemented to reduce the cost of Gas, including a municipal purchase discount1 and $0.055 per Therm for mitigating the impact of short-term natural gas market price spikes2. The Cap and Trade Compliance Charge is a pass-through charge that reflects the City’s cost of regulatory compliance with the state’s Cap and Trade Program, including the cost of acquiring compliance instruments sufficient to cover the City’s Gas Utility’s compliance obligations. The Cap and Trade Compliance Charge changes in response to changing market conditions, retail sales volumes and the quantity of allowances required, and is calculated based on the Cap-and-Trade Program’s quarterly auction allowance closing prices. The Carbon Offset Charge reflects the City’s cost to purchase offsets for greenhouse gases produced when Gas is burned. The Carbon Offset Charge changes in response to changing market conditions, sales volumes and the quantity of offsets purchased within the Council-approved per Therm cap. The Transportation Charge is a pass-through charge based on the current PG&E G-WSL3 (Gas Transportation Service to Wholesale/Retail Customers) rate for Palo Alto, accounting for delivery losses to the Customer’s Meter. 1 Adopted via Resolution 9451, on September 15, 2014. 2 Adopted via Resolution 10187 on August 19, 2024. 3 https://www.pge.com/tariffs/assets/pdf/tariffbook/GAS_SCHEDS_G-WSL.pdf Attachment A, Exhibit 1 RESIDENTIAL GAS SERVICE UTILITY RATE SCHEDULE G-1 CITY OF PALO ALTO UTILITIES Issued by the City Council Supersedes Sheet No G-1-3 Effective 027-01-2026 dated 072-01-20265 Sheet No G-1-3 The Commodity and Carbon Offset Charges will fall within the minimum/maximum ranges set forth in Section C. Current and historic per Therm rates for the Commodity, Cap and Trade Compliance, Carbon Offset and Transportation Charges are posted on the City Utilities website.4 2. Seasonal Rate Changes: The Summer period is effective April 1 to October 31 and the Winter period is effective from November 1 to March 31. When the Billing Period includes use in both the Summer and the Winter periods, the usage will be prorated based on the number of days in each seasonal period, and the charges based on the applicable rates for each period. For further discussion of bill calculation and proration, refer to Rule and Regulation 11. 3. Calculation of Usage Tiers Tier 1 Natural Gas usage is calculated and billed based upon a level of 23 Therms per 30 day Billing Period during the Summer period, and 60 Therms per 30 day Billing Period during the Winter period, based on Meter reading days of Service, and rounded to the nearest whole Therm. As an example, Tier 1 Natural Gas is calculated at 0.767 Therms per day during the Summer period (.767 Therms per day x 30 days = 23 Therms) and 2.0 Therms per day during the Winter period (2 Therms per day x 30 days = 60 Therms). For further discussion of bill calculation and proration, refer to Rule and Regulation 11. {End} 4 Monthly gas and commodity and volumetric rates are available here, or by visiting https://www.paloalto.gov/files/assets/public/utilities/rates-schedules-for-utilities/residential-utility-rates/monthly-gas- volumetric-and-service-charges-residential.pdf Attachment A, Exhibit 1 RESIDENTIAL MASTER-METERED AND COMMERCIAL GAS SERVICE UTILITY RATE SCHEDULE G-2 CITY OF PALO ALTO UTILITIES Issued by the City Council Supersedes Sheet No G-2-1 Effective 072-01-2026 dated 027-01-20265 Sheet No G-2-1 A. APPLICABILITY: This schedule applies to the following Customers receiving Gas Service from the City of Palo Alto Utilities: 1. Commercial Customers who use less than 250,000 Therms per year at one site; 2. Master-Metered residential Customers in multi-family residential facilities. B. TERRITORY: This schedule applies everywhere the City of Palo Alto provides Gas Service. C. UNBUNDLED RATES: Per Service Monthly Service Charge: For Meters with maximum capacity: 1. Up to 220 Standard Cubic Feet per Hour (scfh) .............................................$ 33.47 29.24 2. Above 220 scfh and less than 4,000 scfh ....................................................$ 108.27 94.56 3. 4,000 scfh and above ..................................................................................$ 479.84 419.08 Per Therm Supply Charges: 1. Commodity (Monthly Market Based) ......................................................... $0.10-$4.00 2. Cap and Trade Compliance Charges ........................................................... Pass-through 3. Transportation Charge .................................................................................. Pass-through 4. Carbon Offset Charge ................................................................................... $0.00-$0.10 Distribution Charge: ..................................................................................................$ 1.3973 1.2204 D. SPECIAL NOTES: 1. Calculation of Cost Components The actual bill amount is calculated based on the applicable rates in Section C above and adjusted for any applicable discounts, surcharges and/or Taxes. On a Customer’s bill statement, the bill amount may be broken down into appropriate components as calculated under Section C. The meter’s maximum capacity used to determine the applicable Monthly Service Charge for G-2 Gas Service is the installed Meter’s City of Palo Alto-approved maximum capacity in standard cubic feet per hour (scfh), measured at 7 inches of water column or equivalent to 0.25 pounds per square inch. Attachment A, Exhibit 1 RESIDENTIAL MASTER-METERED AND COMMERCIAL GAS SERVICE UTILITY RATE SCHEDULE G-2 CITY OF PALO ALTO UTILITIES Issued by the City Council Supersedes Sheet No G-2-2 Effective 072-01-2026 dated 027-01-20265 Sheet No G-2-2 The Commodity Charge is based on the monthly natural gas Bidweek Price Index for delivery at PG&E Citygate, adjusted to account for delivery losses to the Customer’s Meter. The Commodity Charge also includes adjustments to account for Council- approved programs implemented to reduce the cost of Gas, including a municipal purchase discount1 and $0.055 per Therm for mitigating the impact of short-term natural gas market price spikes2. The Cap and Trade Compliance Charge is a pass-through charge that reflects the City’s cost of regulatory compliance with the state’s Cap and Trade Program, including the cost of acquiring compliance instruments sufficient to cover the City’s Gas Utility’s compliance obligations. The Cap and Trade Compliance Charge changes in response to changing market conditions, retail sales volumes and the quantity of allowances required, and is calculated based on the Cap-and-Trade Program’s quarterly auction allowance closing prices. The Carbon Offset Charge reflects the City’s cost to purchase offsets for greenhouse gases produced when Gas is burned. The Carbon Offset Charge changes in response to changing market conditions, sales volumes and the quantity of offsets purchased within the Council- approved per Therm cap. The Transportation Charge is a pass-through charge based on the current PG&E G-WSL3 (Gas Transportation Service to Wholesale/Retail Customers) rate for Palo Alto, accounting for delivery losses to the Customer’s Meter. The Commodity and Carbon Offset Charges will fall within the minimum/maximum ranges set forth in Section C. Current and historic per Therm rates for the Commodity, Cap and Trade Compliance, Carbon Offset and Transportation Charges are posted on the City Utilities website.4 {End} 1 Adopted via Resolution 9451, on September 15, 2014. 2 Adopted via Resolution 10187 on August 19, 2024. 3 https://www.pge.com/tariffs/assets/pdf/tariffbook/GAS_SCHEDS_G-WSL.pdf 4 Monthly gas and commodity and volumetric rates are available here, or by visiting https://www.paloalto.gov/files/assets/public/utilities/business/business-rates/monthly-gas-volumetric-and-service-charges- commercial.pdf Attachment A, Exhibit 1 LARGE COMMERCIAL GAS SERVICE UTILITY RATE SCHEDULE G-3 CITY OF PALO ALTO UTILITIES Issued by the City Council Supersedes Sheet No G-3-1 Effective 072-01-2026 dated 027-01-20265 Sheet No G-3-1 A. APPLICABILITY: This schedule applies to Customers receiving Gas Service from the City of Palo Alto Utilities, who use at least 250,000 Therms per year at one site. B. TERRITORY: This schedule applies everywhere the City of Palo Alto provides Gas Service. C. UNBUNDLED RATES: Per Service Monthly Service Charge: $ 1,960.65 1,712.36 Per Therm Supply Charges: 1. Commodity (Monthly Market Based) .................................................... $0.10-$4.00 2. Cap and Trade Compliance Charges .................................................... Pass-through 3. Transportation Charge .......................................................................... Pass-through 4. Carbon Offset Charge ........................................................................... $0.00-$0.10 Distribution Charge: ................................................................................................$ 1.3595 1.1874 D. SPECIAL NOTES: 1. Calculation of Cost Components The actual bill amount is calculated based on the applicable rates in Section C above and adjusted for any applicable discounts, surcharges and/or Taxes. On a Customer’s bill statement, the bill amount may be broken down into appropriate components as calculated under Section C. The Commodity Charge is based on the monthly natural gas Bidweek Price Index for delivery at PG&E Citygate, adjusted to account for delivery losses to the Customer’s Meter. The Commodity Charge also includes adjustments to account for Council- approved programs implemented to reduce the cost of Gas, including a municipal purchase discount1 and $0.055 per Therm for mitigating the impact of short-term natural gas market price spikes2. 1 Adopted via Resolution 9451, on September 15, 2014. 2 Adopted via Resolution 10187 on August 19, 2024. Attachment A, Exhibit 1 LARGE COMMERCIAL GAS SERVICE UTILITY RATE SCHEDULE G-3 CITY OF PALO ALTO UTILITIES Issued by the City Council Supersedes Sheet No G-3-2 Effective 072-01-2026 dated 027-01-20265 Sheet No G-3-2 The Cap and Trade Compliance Charge is a pass-through charge that reflects the City’s cost of regulatory compliance with the state’s Cap and Trade Program, including the cost of acquiring compliance instruments sufficient to cover the City’s Gas Utility’s compliance obligations. The Cap and Trade Compliance Charge changes in response to changing market conditions, retail sales volumes and the quantity of allowances required, and is calculated based on the Cap-and-Trade Program’s quarterly auction allowance closing prices. The Carbon Offset Charge reflects the City’s cost to purchase offsets for greenhouse gases produced when Gas is burned. The Carbon Offset Charge changes in response to changing market conditions, sales volumes and the quantity of offsets purchased within the Council- approved per Therm cap. The Transportation Charge is a pass-through charge based on the current PG&E G-WSL3 (Gas Transportation Service to Wholesale/Retail Customers) rate for Palo Alto, accounting for delivery losses to the Customer’s Meter. The Commodity and Carbon Offset Charges will fall within the minimum/maximum ranges set forth in Section C. Current and historic per Therm rates for the Commodity, Cap and Trade Compliance, Carbon Offset and Transportation Charges are posted on the City Utilities website.4 2. Request for Service A qualifying Customer may request Service under this schedule for more than one Account or Meter if the Accounts are located on one site. A site consists of one or more contiguous parcels of land with no intervening public right-of- ways (e.g. streets). 3. Changing Rate Schedules Customers may request a rate schedule change at any time to any applicable City of Palo Alto full-service rate schedule. {End} 3 https://www.pge.com/tariffs/assets/pdf/tariffbook/GAS_SCHEDS_G-WSL.pdf 4 Monthly gas and commodity and volumetric rates are available here, or by visiting https://www.paloalto.gov/files/assets/public/utilities/business/business-rates/monthly-gas-volumetric-and-service-charges- commercial.pdf Attachment A, Exhibit 1 Attachment A, Exhibit 2 6 7 5 6 Attachment A, Exhibit 2 6 7 5 6 Gas Utility Capital Improvement Program (CIP) Financial Details Attachment A, Exhibit 3 6 7 5 7 GAS UTILITY RESERVES MANAGEMENT PRACTICES The following reserves management practices shall be used when developing the Gas Utility Financial Plan: Section 1. Definitions a) “Financial Planning Period” – The Financial Planning Period is the range of future fiscal years covered by the Financial Plan. For example, if the Financial Plan delivered in conjunction with the FY 2015 budget includes projections for FY 2015 to FY 2019, FY 2015 to FY 2019 would be the Financial Planning Period. b) “Fund Balance” – As used in these Reserves Management Practices, Fund Balance refers to the Utility’s Unrestricted Net Assets. c) “Net Assets” - The Government Accounting Standards Board defines a Utility’s Net Assets as the difference between its assets and liabilities. d) “Unrestricted Net Assets” - The portion of the Utility’s Net Assets not invested in capital assets (net of related debt) or restricted for debt service or other restricted purposes. Section 2. Supply Fund Reserves The Gas Utility’s Supply Fund Balance is reserved for the following purposes: a) For existing contracts, as described in Section 4 (Reserve for Commitments) b) For operating and capital budgets re-appropriated from previous years, as described in Section 5 (Reserve for Re-appropriations) Section 3. Distribution Fund Reserves a) For existing contracts, as described in Section 4 (Reserve for Commitments) b) For operating and capital budgets re-appropriated from previous years, as described in Section 5 (Reserve for Re-appropriations) c) For cash flow management and contingencies related to the Gas Utility’s Capital Improvement Program (CIP), as described in Section 6 (CIP Reserve) d) For rate stabilization, as described in Section 7 (Rate Stabilization Reserve) e) For operating contingencies, as described in Section 8 (Operations Reserve) f) For tracking unspent or unallocated revenues from the sale of carbon allowances freely allocated by the California Air Resources Board to the gas utility under the State’s Cap- and- Trade Invest Program, as described in Section 11 (Cap- and- Trade Invest Program Reserve) g) Any funds not included in the other reserves will be considered Unassigned Reserves and shall be returned to ratepayers or assigned a specific purpose as described in Section 9 (Unassigned Reserves) Attachment A, Exhibit 3 6 7 5 7 Section 4. Reserve for Commitments 1. These guideline levels are calculated for each fiscal year of the Financial Planning Period and approved by Council resolution. 1 The guideline levels were corrected to match the Council-approved language updated from the FY 2021 Financial Plan. 2 Each month is calculated based upon 1/12 of the annual budget. 3 For example, in the Financial Plan for FY 2021, the 48 month period to use to derive the annual average is FY 2021 through FY 2024. In the FY 2022 Financial Plan, the 48 month period to use to derive the annual average would be FY 2022 through FY 2025 etc. Minimum Level 20% of the maximum CIP Reserve guideline level l Maximum Level Average annual (12 month)2 CIP budget, for 48 months of budgeted CIP expenses3 Attachment A, Exhibit 3 6 7 5 7 d) Maximum Level: If, at any time, the CIP Reserve reaches its maximum level, no funds may be added to this reserve. If there are funds in this reserve in excess of the maximum level staff must propose to transfer these funds to another reserve or return them to ratepayers in the next Financial Plan. Staff may also seek Council approval to hold funds in this reserve in excess of the maximum level, if they are held for a specific future purpose related to the CIP. Section 3. Rate Stabilization Reserve The Rate Stabilization Reserve is used to manage the trajectory of future Funds may be added to the Rate Stabilization Reserve by action of the City Council and held to manage the trajectory of future year rate increases. Withdrawal of funds from the Rate Stabilization Reserve requires Council action. If there are funds in the Rate Stabilization Reserve at the end of any fiscal year, any subsequent Gas Utility Financial Plan must result in the withdrawal of all funds from this Reserve by the end of the Financial Planning Period. Section 4. Operations Reserve The Operations Reserve is used to manage normal variations in costs and as a reserve for contingencies. Any portion of the Gas Utility’s Fund Balance not included in the reserves described in Section 4-Section 7 above will be included in the Operations Reserve unless this reserve has reached its maximum level as set forth in Section 8 d) below. Staff will manage the Operations Reserve according to the following practices: a) The following guideline levels are set forth for the Operations Reserve. These guideline levels are calculated for each fiscal year of the Financial Planning Period based on the levels of Operations and Maintenance (O&M) and commodity expense forecasted for that year in the Financial Plan. Minimum Level 60 days of O&M and commodity expense Target Level 90 days of O&M and commodity expense Maximum Level 120 days of O&M and commodity expense b) Minimum Level: If, at the end of any fiscal year, the funds remaining in the Operations Reserve are lower than the minimum level set forth above, staff shall present a plan to the City Council to replenish the reserve. The plan shall be delivered within six months of the end of the fiscal year, and shall, at a minimum, result in the reserve reaching its minimum level by the end of the following fiscal year. For example, if the Operations Reserve is below its minimum level at the end of FY 2014, staff must present a plan by December 31, 2014 to return the reserve to its minimum level by June 30, 2015. In addition, staff may present, and the Council may adopt, an alternative plan that takes longer than one year to replenish the reserve. c) Target Level: If, at the end of any fiscal year, the Operations Reserve is higher or lower than the target level, any Financial Plan created for the Gas Utility shall be designed to return the Operations Reserve to its target level by the end of the forecast period. Attachment A, Exhibit 3 6 7 5 7 d) Maximum Level: If, at any time, the Operations Reserve reaches its maximum level, no funds may be added to this reserve. Any further increase in the Gas Utility’s Fund Balance shall be automatically included in the Unassigned Reserve described in Section 9, below. Section 5. Unassigned Reserve If the Operations Reserve reaches its maximum level, any further additions to the Gas Utility’s Fund Balance will be held in the Unassigned Reserve. If there are any funds in the Unassigned Reserve at the end of any fiscal year, the next Financial Plan presented to the City Council must include a plan to assign them to a specific purpose or return them to the Gas Utility ratepayers by the end of the first fiscal year of the next Financial Planning Period. For example, if there were funds in the Unassigned Reserves at the end of FY 2015, and the next Financial Planning Period is FY 2016 through FY 2020, the Financial Plan shall include a plan to return or assign any funds in the Unassigned Reserve by the end of FY 2016. Staff may present an alternative plan that retains these funds or returns them over a longer period of time. Section 6. Intra-Utility Transfers Between Supply and Distribution Funds The Gas Utility records costs in two separate funds: the Gas Supply Fund and the Gas Distribution Fund. At the end of each fiscal year staff is authorized to transfer funds between the Gas Supply Fund and Gas Distribution Fund if consistent with the purposes of the two reserves involved in the transfer and in order to balance gas utility reserves to avoid negative balances. For example, Gas Distribution revenues are needed to pay for certain supply- related costs such as administration of the Gas Supply Fund. Such transfers shall be included in the ordinance closing the budget for the fiscal year. Section 7. Cap- and- Trade Invest Program Reserve This reserve tracks unspent or unallocated revenues from the sale of carbon allowances freely allocated by the California Air Resources Board to the gas utility, under the State’s Cap- and- Trade Invest Program. Funds in this Reserve are managed in accordance with the City’s Policy on the Use of Freely Allocated Allowances under the State’s Cap- and- Trade Invest Program (the Policy), adopted by Council Resolution 9487 in January 2015, and amended by Council Resolution 10077 in October 2022. At the end of each fiscal year, the Cap- and- Trade Invest Program Reserve will be adjusted by the net of revenues and expenses associated with the Cap- and- Trade Invest program. Attachment A, Exhibit 4 1 0 7 1 4 COMMUNICATIONS PLAN AND OUTREACH EXAMPLES – GAS UTILITY The proposed gas utility rate adjustments are part of the City of Palo Alto Utilities (CPAU) ongoing effort to maintain the financial health and reliability of the Gas Utility while managing the impacts of declining gas consumption and increasing operating and capital expenses. Reasons for the Proposed Rate Increase During the pandemic, the city kept overall Gas Utility rate increases to 2% to 3% annually and utilized reserve funding to cover costs. In the winter of 2022-23, surging gas prices depleted the Gas Utility reserves, which were used to cover the difference between actual gas costs and the revenue generated by charging customers the Council-approved maximum gas commodity charge. Reserves need to be replenished over time to ensure funds are available for safety and reliability needs, while managing ongoing cost inflation. The Gas Utility financial results have been affected by lower-than-expected sales revenues driven by reduced gas usage and lower commodity prices. Although supply purchases have also been below expectations, these savings were insufficient to offset revenue shortfalls. Additionally, capital improvement program (CIP) expenses exceeded projections, largely due to emergency repair work and rising labor costs. Looking ahead, staff project a continued decline in gas consumption due to electrification trends and long-term efficiency improvements, which will place upward pressure on rates as fixed operational and capital costs are spread across fewer therms sold. To maintain reliable operations, meet reserve targets, and fund essential infrastructure projects, staff are recommending a 9% overall rate increase in FY 2027. This includes a 14.5% increase in distribution rates and assumes stable supply-related charges. Communication Plan and Messaging Strategy Staff will implement a comprehensive communication plan to ensure that gas customers and community stakeholders understand the reasons for the proposed rate adjustment and CPAU’s efforts to minimize bill impacts. Key communication objectives are to: Increase transparency by clearly explaining how lower gas sales, infrastructure reinvestment, and reserve requirements contribute to the need for the rate adjustment. Emphasize stability and fairness by highlighting the stepwise approach to rate adjustments and the alignment of rates with actual cost-of-service principles, consistent with City Council direction and Proposition 26. Demonstrate fiscal stewardship by sharing that staff have pursued federal and state funding support (including Department of Transportation, FEMA, and CalOES grants) to offset emergency costs and provide additional main replacement. Promote understanding of long-term trends by contextualizing the rate increase within the broader transition to community electrification and declining gas demand. Attachment A, Exhibit 4 1 0 7 1 4 Communication methods throughout the year, and specifically for rate changes, include direct customer outreach through utility bill inserts, targeted community newsletters and/or blogs, website updates at www.paloalto.gov/RatesOverview, social media, print and digital advertising, and participation in community outreach events. Public communication materials about rate changes will feature FAQs, charts or other visuals including infographics showing the breakdown of utility costs that correlate with the need for rate increases, and explanations of how customer classes are affected. Messaging will emphasize rate adjustments are necessary to sustain safe, reliable, and financially sound gas operations consistent with voter-approved guidelines and the city’s long-term energy strategy. In addition, CPAU continues to explore cost-containment measures for each utility fund. Stakeholder Engagement Public meetings before the UAC, Finance Committee, and City Council to present rate proposals and solicit community feedback. Communication with community partners—including key accounts, business, residential customer groups and associations, and low-income assistance advocates—to ensure rate impacts and mitigation options are well understood. Customer service training for Utilities staff to ensure consistent messaging in addressing customer inquiries. Attachment A, Exhibit 4 1 0 7 1 4 March 31, 2026 PaloAlto.gov FY 2027 Gas Utility Financial Forecast and Proposed Rate Changes Utilities Advisory Commission 2 Gas Utility At-a-Glance •210.5 miles of distribution mains •195 miles of service lines; 18,000 service lines •53 Staff •$62 million Operating Budget (FY 2026) •$24 million Capital Budget (FY 2026) •$86 million Total Budget (FY 2026) •23.7 million therms sales 3 Purpose of Rate Adjustments •Preserve fair cost recovery for the services provided •Maintain Long-Term Financial Stability •Sustained financial support for ongoing utility operations •Develop funding for planned replacement of aging infrastructure •Supporting adequate reserve levels •Support infrastructure replacement and repair •Gas Main Replacement Projects (GMR #25 and #26): ~$31.8 M (GMR #25 100% grant funded for $16.5 M) •Design and Construction of ~52,500 feet of aging PVC and steel gas mains and services •Arastradero Creek Repairs: total ~$2.7 M (FY25-27) •Design and permitting for the relocation of damaged 8 -inch gas main crossing the creek during the 2023 atmospheric storm event 4 The Value of Utility Services and How Funds are Used •Advanced Meter Infrastructure (AMI) •21,492 gas meter installations completed •Gas Main Replacement (GMR) Project #24B •Replaced approximately 18,500 linear feet of aging gas mains and services with polyethylene pipe •Leak Detection and Mitigation •Ground leaks dropped significantly to 66 (29% decrease) and meter leaks also saw a downward trend with 382 found (23% decrease) •Excavation and Damage control •Improvement in infrastructure safety with only 15 damages recorded in 2025 (40% decrease in third-party strikes from the year before) •Sub-standard Material Replacement •Total sub-standard gas-services were reduced to 668 remaining units (7% overall reduction) 5 About one- “ - ”: mm , , Cap-and-Invest, and Carbon Offsets. These rates vary monthly according to market - driven costs that are passed directly to customers The remaining portion of the rate is set based ’ maintaining and replacing gas infrastructure, customer service, billing, administration, etc. and general fund transfer. These rates are being discussed here tonight. Gas Cost Structure and Rate Design Average of FY 2024-25 Total: $60 Million 6 Gas Cost and Revenue Projections Note •Revenue excludes Cap-and-Invest auction sales revenue •The grant-funded $16.5M CIP project is projected to be under construction in FY26-27 •Rate % changes exclude supply -related cost changes 6 7 Gas Bill Comparisons ($/Month) Residential Commercial and Multi-Family Master-Metered Note: •Calculated based on FY25 actual supply rates, and assumes no change to supply-related rates •FY26: Assumes current distribution rates for the full year •PG&E bills are calculated using Climate Zone X and include a climate credit for residential •G-2 bills are calculated based on the median usages for each meter capacity group The residential annual median difference (11%) compared with PG&E reflects higher weight to the winter months because of higher usage during those months. Palo Alto residential bills are higher than PG&E in the summer because PG&E does not have a monthly meter charge. 8 FY 2027 Rate Increase Drivers 8 Note: The % changes were calculated based on current FY 2027 revenues apportioned into cost categories based on the average actual costs in FY24 and FY25. Rate Increase Drivers •Operations: personnel costs •Lower Sales Revenue: due to lower projected gas usage •CIP: gas main replacement cost increases (for non-grant-funded project) m 9 Gas Supply Load Forecast 10 Gas Operations Reserve Projections Note: About $4.73 in FY24 and $8.57 M in FY25 (shown in hashed red bar) held in the CIP Reappropriations Reserve to be reimbursed through grant Risk Assessment (Blue Line): Based on the maximum historical non-commodity revenue variance for the past 10 years and 10% of CIP budget (up to FY29) Reserve Target: 90 days of O&M and commodity expense Reserve Maximum: 120 days of O&M and commodity expense Reserve Minimum : 60 days of O&M and commodity expense Historical Operations Reserve Impacts FY 20-22: Pandemic Related Usage decline FY 23: Gas spike, Usage high with colder than average winter FY 24: FY 23 costs paid in FY 24 (e.g., price spike impacts) FY 25: Usage 8% below projected 11 Communication and Outreach Key Messages •Reasons for rate increases and benefits to customers: •Safety, reliability, infrastructure upgrades, system maintenance •Competitive rates to other utilities and neighboring cities •What the City is doing to keep costs down •Programs to help customers keep utility bill costs low Outreach Strategies •Public Meetings: UAC, Finance, City Council •Print and Digital Communication:utility bill inserts, website, email newsletters, City blog, videos •Local Media Engagement: articles, interviews Utility bill insert about gas safety Installing new piping for the Gas Main Replacement Project #24B