HomeMy WebLinkAboutStaff Report 2512-5614CITY OF PALO ALTO
Policy & Services Committee
Special Meeting
Tuesday, March 10, 2026
6:00 PM
Agenda Item
2.Consider Policy Options to Encourage Multi-Family Development in Mixed-Use Districts
(2023-2031 Housing Element Program 3.9(A)) and Potential Recommendation for City
Council on Next Steps. CEQA Status: The Addendum to the Comprehensive Plan
Environmental Impact Report (EIR), approved by the City Council on April 15, 2024,
analyzed potential environmental impacts of the 6th Cycle Housing Element including
Program 3.9(A). Presentation
Policy & Services Committee
Staff Report
From: City Manager
Report Type: ACTION ITEMS
Lead Department: Planning and Development Services
Meeting Date: March 10, 2026
Report #:2512-5614
TITLE
Consider Policy Options to Encourage Multi-Family Development in Mixed-Use Districts (2023-
2031 Housing Element Program 3.9(A)) and Potential Recommendation for City Council on Next
Steps. CEQA Status: The Addendum to the Comprehensive Plan Environmental Impact Report
(EIR), approved by the City Council on April 15, 2024, analyzed potential environmental impacts
of the 6th Cycle Housing Element including Program 3.9(A).
RECOMMENDATION
Staff recommends that the Policy & Services Committee discuss policy options and recommend
which, if any, incentives to refine and elevate for City Council consideration.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This report summarizes a variety of approaches the City might use in order to make the
development of new multi-family residential more desirable in certain areas of the City where
both commercial and residential development are allowed, consistent with Housing Element
Program 3.9(A) and 2025 Council Priority No. 52. This report also provides options which are
less likely to spur residential benefits, but which could result in additional benefits to the City
when commercial projects are authorized.
The City is seeking to make progress towards permitting the 6,086 dwelling units assigned to
the City as part of the Sixth Cycle Housing Element Regional Housing Needs Assessment (RHNA),
as well as respond to its jobs/housing imbalance, in part by incentivizing residential and mixed-
use development projects where appropriate. At the time of this report, the City has permitted
635 new units, and the 2023-2031 Housing Element identifies a ratio of 3.19 jobs to employed
residents within the City. The most recent available data, from 2023, shows a ratio of 4.18 jobs
to housing units, significantly higher than the 1.5 regional average.
In many areas, including sites near transit, economic pressures and the current regulatory
framework result in an imbalance in favor of office and research commercial development. The
report commissioned by the City (refer to Attachment A) concludes that there are limited policy
tools available to the City to influence the relative feasibility of office development in locations
where it currently outperforms residential development. These are:
Fees. Increases to development impact fees (e.g., commercial linkage fee) could raise
the cost of office development and narrow the gap between office and residential
development potential.
Taxes. A construction tax is a one-time tax levied on new construction, typically based
on square footage or project value, which local governments may impose on specific
development types. A high construction tax could add to office development project
costs. A tax on office development would require voter approval.
Building Standards. Elevated building standards for office development, including
enhanced sustainability performance, higher energy requirements, labor requirements
or other obligations that increase construction cost, could marginally decrease office
feasibility.
Land Use Regulation. The City could change zoning regulations or otherwise further
restrict office development allowances. These changes could be limited to areas of the
City where the office market is strongest, such as Downtown, California Ave or the
Research Park.
BACKGROUND
to a strong preference by developers to pursue office uses, which are frequently seen as more
profitable. Prior to the Sixth Cycle, the City adopted a Housing Incentive Program (HIP) to
increase allowed housing density and relax standards (expanded in 2025), and also instituted an
Office/R&D Development Cap as tools working in unison to incentivize housing. However, the
2023-2301 Housing Element identified that additional regulatory may be needed.
ANALYSIS
Market fundamentals strongly favor office development in core locations. Office
development outperforms multi-family housing (rental units even more so than for-sale
units) in the locations where Palo Alto achieves its highest office values, particularly
Downtown and segments of California Avenue. Achievable office rents in these areas
support land values that exceed rental housing values by a wide margin. This
performance gap reflects underlying market conditions rather than policy choices.
Modest policy interventions that add cost to office development are unlikely to change
these outcomes because office uses are significantly more valuable.
Existing zoning limits office development potential. Although office typically
outperforms housing in terms of value per square foot, office uses are already
meaningfully constrained through density (i.e., Floor Area Ratio) limits. Across the four
study sites, allowable office density is far lower than allowable residential density. In
some cases, office development capacity is half of residential capacity and in one case it
is approximately one quarter. These project size constraints already significantly reduce
office-supported land value and are a disincentive for office development.
Cost-based City disincentives would need to be significant to change highest-and-best
use outcomes in desirable office locations. For the two test sites where office is more
desirable than housing, reducing the appeal of office development by adding cost would
require very large levies. To make housing preferable, one site would require
approximately double its current commercial linkage fee burden, while another would
require that fees increase by nearly an order of magnitude (1,000%). These magnitudes
are well beyond typical policy adjustments and indicate that fee-based tools alone likely
cannot equalize office and residential feasibility in some Palo Alto locations.
4.Low-density for-sale residential prototypes perform relatively well under current
market conditions. For-sale housing is highly competitive with office outside Palo Alto’s
best office locations. The study finds that townhome format residential development is
preferrable to office development at two sites, where for-sale pricing supports stronger
residual values1 than office. Townhomes are the highest and best uses at these sites
without additional incentives, reflecting strong demand for lower density ownership
housing. This finding suggests that lower density for-sale housing can stimulate
redevelopment, particularly in locations where office is less prevalent.
5.Rental housing faces feasibility challenges in today’s market. Rental residential
prototypes underperform both office and for-sale housing across the study sites. While
the City is seeing a number of for-rent residential and mixed-use residential
applications, particularly projects utilizing State Density Bonus Law or the City’s Housing
Incentive Program in corridors such as San Antonio Road and El Camino Real, these
projects often rely on regulatory incentives and increased density to move forward. High
construction costs, on-site inclusionary housing requirements in the Housing Focus Area,
and tepid regional rent growth all contribute to lower residual land values. Even in the
best locations, rental housing feasibility lags office by a substantial margin and trails for-
sale housing as well. This suggests that current development activity is largely incentive-
driven rather than market-driven, and that additional incentive tools are likely needed
to achieve meaningful production of new multifamily rental units in the near term.
6.Redevelopment incentives in Palo Alto should reflect the notable differences in
development feasibility findings across the City’s distinct submarkets. In the best office
locations, market conditions favor office so strongly that strict limitations on office
development would likely be needed to prioritize housing development. Meanwhile, in
less desirable office locations, lower-density for-sale housing, particularly townhomes,
appear to be the most effective land use to catalyze redevelopment. The study also
finds that rental housing will require additional support to compete with higher-value
alternatives.
Based on the findings summarized above, the following sections explore the four primary policy
tools available to the City which could influence the relative feasibility of office development in
locations where it currently outperforms residential development. Staff is seeking the
Committee’s feedback on these tools to inform the next steps for implementing Housing
Element Program 3.9(A).
1 Estimated completed project value minus the total development cost.
Potential Policy Tool 1: Fees
The City could choose to increase development impact fees (e.g., commercial linkage fee),
which are paid by commercial development projects and are used to mitigate the impacts of an
increase in housing demand from employee households that require below-market-rate
housing. Revenues from linkage fees are deposited into a housing trust fund for the
construction of affordable housing within the City. Under the California Mitigation Fee Act (Gov.
Code §§ 66000-66025), all development impact fees are required to be based on projected
impacts of the development. In addition, most cities choose to adopt fees lower than they are
able to based on impacts in order to make desired projects more feasible.
In 2015, Strategic Economics and Vernazza Wolfe Associates completed a nexus study for the
City which established maximum commercial linkage fees for office/R&D ($264/square feet)
and hotel ($177/square feet) uses. The City adopted a commercial linkage fee of $39.70
following the nexus study, and increased the fee to $68.50 in 2021. The current fee is still
considerably below the level established by the nexus study.
The City is currently working with a consultant team from Keyser Marston & Associates to
develop a new non-residential affordable housing nexus study. This study will summarize the
methodology, analysis and maximum legally supportable affordable housing impact fees for the
following non-residential land uses: retail, office, industrial, warehouse, lodging and research
and development. Council is expected to review the draft study no later than September 2026
and to adopt any updated impact fees by January 2027.
It is unclear whether an increased non-residential affordable housing impact fee alone would
be enough to persuade developers to pursue residential developments, but it could in some
cases close the gap in land value between project types, as well as generating additional
revenue to the City for affordable housing developments at other sites. The City may also
consider adopting different non-residential affordable housing impact fees for different areas in
the City as long as none of the fees exceed the maximum legally supportable amount
determined by the nexus study. Higher fees could be used to dissuade nonresidential
development in certain parts of the city.
A high construction tax represents a potential approach to increase office development project
costs, making alternative uses more competitive. Like development fee increases, a tax increase
could in some cases close the gap in land value between project types, as well as generating
additional revenue to the City for affordable housing developments at other sites. No nexus
study is required for a tax increase, however, a tax on office development would need to be
voter approved.
Potential Policy Tool 3: Building Standards
Elevated building standards for office development, including enhanced sustainability
performance, higher energy requirements, labor requirements or other obligations that
increase construction cost could marginally decrease office feasibility. Such standards could
include requiring that commercial development projects obtain LEED Platinum certification and
Energy Star certifications; institute travel demand management plans to ensure no or a low
number of new trips; hire skilled/trained labor for construction; provide increased community
benefit obligations; or others. As mentioned above, it is unclear whether such requirements
alone would incentivize residential development over commercial development, but at a
minimum they would procure community benefits including advancement to the City’s
sustainability goals and creation of higher wage jobs.
The City could change zoning or otherwise further restrict office development allowances
beyond the already limited floor area ratios and square footage caps in place, including
removing office as an allowed use entirely. Land use regulation could be targeted for districts of
the City where the office market is strongest, such as Downtown, California Avenue, El Camino
Real corridor, and the Stanford Research Park. This is likely to have limited impacts, as the City
already heavily restricts new office development both on a per-site basis and through the City’s
overall office cap (both total office space and net new office space per year). Eliminating office
as an allowed use could also have the unintended effect of disincentivizing redevelopment as
property owners could seek to retain a high-value non-conforming use.
While none of these options alone appear to be sufficient to swing the economic advantage
away from commercial development towards residential development, a combination of these
options could have some impact, and at the very least provide some advancement towards
ancillary City goals. It should be noted, however, that outside of the key office corridors, some
types of multi-family residential projects are already preferrable to office development (refer to
Attachment A), therefore whichever policy the City follows should be carefully crafted not to
disincentivize residential projects, which may rely on commercial development to make
projects feasible. Moreover, disincentivizing commercial office does not necessarily translate
into increased housing production. Some property owners may hold on to existing assets until
there is a more favorable development environment.
Receiving this report has no fiscal or resource impacts. This project was funded by a task order
not to exceed $114,993 in consulting fees (for both Program 3.9(A) and Program 3.9(B)) as well
as staff time. As of January 21, 2025, $73,848 of that task order had been spent. The creation of
alternatives for City Council approval (based on this Policy & Services Committee’s
recommendations) is within scope of the original contract and will not incur additional
consultant fees beyond what has previously been allocated. However, any additional study
would likely require new funding. Adoption of some of these policies could result in changes to
revenue, such as increases to the City’s affordable housing funds, depending on the
mechanisms and policies that City Council ultimately chooses to pursue.
STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT
ENVIRONMENTAL REVIEW
ATTACHMENTS
APPROVED BY:
Memorandum
To: , Lexington Planning
lsch, and Kaavya Chhatrapati;
-Use Development;
241108
12, 2026
The City of Palo Alto retained Economic and Planning Systems (EPS) to evaluate the
financial feasibility of real estate development prototypes across four distinct districts
within the city. The City is considering how zoning, development standards, and policy
tools influence the relative economics of office and residential development, particularly in
geographies that may be candidates for reinvestment over the long term. This
memorandum describes a planning-level feasibility assessment of conceptual
development project programs prepared by the Lexington Planning consultant team
(Lexington Planning, Raimi + Associates, and EPS) and applies revenue and cost
assumptions to understand the economic conditions under which redevelopment is likely
to occur.
The purpose of the analysis is to clarify how current market forces and regulatory
frameworks shape redevelopment potential, and to provide a fact-based foundation for
discussions about potential policy options for the City to consider. Palo Alto contains
submarkets with significantly different real estate values, development capacity, parcel
characteristics, and access to transit and amenities. These differences produce distinct
feasibility outcomes, and the City is seeking to understand which prototypical
developments are most viable in each setting, whether there are structural barriers to
desired development patterns, and how policy adjustments may affect feasibility.
This memorandum evaluates scenarios that reflect realistic development projects under
existing zoning. The analysis focuses on the land uses that are most likely to drive
redevelopment: office, rental housing, and for-sale housing. Retail and cultural uses are not
evaluated as standalone prototypes. These uses may be accommodated on ground floors
or integrated into larger projects, but they do not materially shape the core feasibility
questions addressed here.
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The results of this study are intended to inform several policy conversations. First, the City
is exploring how to encourage housing production in areas where office demand has
historically been strong. Second, the City is evaluating whether fee adjustments or zoning
changes can meaningfully shift development outcomes. Third, the City aims to understand
how redevelopment potential varies across submarkets so that planning and land use
strategies can be tailored to the conditions present in each district rather than applied
uniformly.
The analysis uses a stabilized year pro forma framework that compares the value of a
completed project at full occupancy with the full cost of development. This method does
not attempt to predict timing, absorption, or the probability that any specific parcel will
redevelop. Instead, it identifies the conditions under which redevelopment becomes
financially viable and highlights the relative strength of office and residential prototypes
under current market conditions. The analysis incorporates sensitivity testing to evaluate
how changes in rent, fees, land cost, and parking format influence feasibility. This provides
a broad view of how market and policy factors interact and which levers have meaningful
influence on outcomes.
Key Findings
1. Market fundamentals strongly favor office development in core locations. Office
development outperforms rental housing in the locations where Palo Alto achieves its highest
office values, particularly Downtown and segments of California Avenue. Achievable office
rents in these areas support land values that exceed rental housing values by a wide margin.
This performance gap reflects underlying market conditions rather than policy choices.
Modest policy interventions that add cost to office development are unlikely to change these
outcomes because office uses are significantly more valuable.
2. Existing zoning limits office development potential. Although office typically outperforms
housing in terms of value per square foot, office uses are already meaningfully constrained
through density (i.e., Floor Area Ratio) limits. Across the four study sites, allowable office
density is far lower than allowable residential density. In some cases, office development
capacity is half of residential capacity and in one case it is approximately one quarter. These
project size constraints significantly reduce office-supported land value and are a disincentive
for office development.
3. Cost-based City disincentives would need to be significant to change highest-and-best use
outcomes in desirable office locations. For two sites tested where office is more desirable
than housing, reducing the appeal of office development by adding cost would require very
large levies. To make housing preferable, one site would require approximately double its
current commercial linkage fee burden, while another would require that fees increase by
nearly an order of magnitude (1,000%). These magnitudes are well beyond typical policy
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.
Page 3
adjustments and indicate that fee-based tools alone likely cannot equalize office and
residential feasibility in some Palo Alto locations.
4. Low-density for-sale residential prototypes perform relatively well under current market
conditions. In fact, for-sale housing is highly competitive with office outside Palo Alto’s best
office locations. The study finds that townhome format residential development is preferrable
to office development at two sites, where for-sale pricing supports stronger residual values
than office. Townhomes are the highest and best uses at these sites without additional
incentives, reflecting strong demand for lower density ownership housing. This finding
suggests that lower density for-sale housing can stimulate redevelopment, particularly in
locations where office is less prevalent.
5. Rental housing faces feasibility challenges in today’s market. Rental residential prototypes
underperform both office and for-sale housing across the study sites. While the City is seeing a
number of for-rent residential and mixed-use residential applications, particularly projects
utilizing State Density Bonus Law or the City’s Housing Incentive Program in corridors such as
San Antonio Road and El Camino Real, these projects often rely on regulatory incentives and
increased density to move forward. High construction costs, on-site inclusionary housing
requirements in the Housing Focus Area, and tepid regional rent growth all contribute to
lower residual land values. Even in the best locations, rental housing feasibility lags office by a
substantial margin and trails for-sale housing as well. This suggests that current development
activity is largely incentive-driven rather than market-driven, and that additional incentive
tools are likely needed to achieve meaningful production of new multifamily rental units in the
near term.
6. Redevelopment incentives in Palo Alto should reflect the notable differences in
development feasibility findings across the city’s distinct submarkets. In the best office
locations, market conditions favor office so strongly that strict limitations on office
development would likely be needed to prioritize housing development. Meanwhile, in less
desirable office locations, lower-density for-sale housing, particularly townhomes, appear to
be the most effective land use to catalyze redevelopment. The study also finds that rental
housing will require additional support to compete with higher-value alternatives.
Page 4
Development Sites and Submarket Context
The feasibility analysis evaluates redevelopment potential across four sites selected to
capture the range of market conditions present in Palo Alto. Figure 1 illustrates that the
studied locations span transit-served mixed-use districts, commercial corridors, and
lower-intensity suburban environments. Table 1 summarizes the submarket context for
each site, illustrating how development economics vary across the city’s major
employment and housing submarkets.
Site 1 - Mayfield (Test Site: 123 Sherman Avenue)
Mayfield sits immediately adjacent to the California Avenue Caltrain Station and benefits
from a walkable environment with access to neighborhood retail, transit, and proximity to
Stanford Research Park. The area functions as a transitional zone between established
residential neighborhoods and a major employment district. Office market performance in
Mayfield falls between the premium conditions observed Downtown and those seen in
Research Park.
Site 2 - Research Park (Test Site: 901 South California Avenue)
Research Park is characterized by a stable daytime population, a strong concentration of
professional services tenants, and, at this site, proximity to an established neighborhood
shopping street with high foot traffic (California Avenue). Residential demand is robust in
this area due to its transit accessibility, centralized location, and proximity to Stanford.
This submarket represents a balanced environment where both residential and office uses
may be financially viable depending on site characteristics and zoning.
Site 3 - Downtown (Test Site: 901 High Street)
Downtown Palo Alto represents the city’s most valuable commercial district. Premium
office rents, strong retail foot traffic, a dense mix of uses, and direct Caltrain access create
exceptional market value. This location consistently attracts tenants with high willingness
to pay, supporting land values far above those of other Palo Alto submarkets. Residential
demand is also strong downtown, but housing values are relatively less than those
generated by the office market, and limited opportunities for larger buildings contribute to
the challenge of building residential projects.
Site 4 - Bayshore (Test Site: 2850 West Bayshore Road)
The Bayshore functions as a lower density district of Palo Alto with good automobile
access, limited walkability, and materially lower rent levels than other Palo Alto
submarkets. For-sale housing performs well here, although overall development feasibility
remains highly sensitive to cost. The test site provides an office market counterpoint to the
premium conditions seen downtown and illustrates how office development potential is
limited outside of well-amenitized office clusters.
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.
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Figure 1 – Mapping Development Test Sites
Page 6
Table 1 – Submarket Summary
Office Market Geography and Value Patterns
Office values in Palo Alto are highly location-specific and follow a recognizable spatial
hierarchy. As illustrated in Figure 2, higher office rents and sale prices are concentrated
along a series of linear commercial corridors, including University Avenue, El Camino Real,
California Avenue, and Page Mill Road. These corridors align with transit access, walkable
amenities, and concentrations of professional services tenants. They represent locations
where firms demonstrate the highest willingness to pay for visibility, proximity to peers,
and regional accessibility.
The highest value areas occur where these corridors overlap, forming premium office
zones near the Downtown Caltrain Station and the California Avenue commercial district,
consistent with the sales data shown in Table 2. Properties within these commercial nodes
regularly achieve sale prices exceeding $1,600 per square foot. Meanwhile, values fall
sharply even a few blocks outside these boundaries, reflecting the importance of access,
amenities, walkability, and tenant clustering in the Palo Alto market.
This corridor-based value geography helps inform and explain the financial feasibility
results of this analysis. Office development exhibits strong performance Downtown and
near California Avenue because these locations achieve substantial market premiums that
offset density limitations and high construction costs. Outside these zones, office
development feasibility is significantly weaker, as is found at the Bayshore site. In those
Site #Address Submarket Context and Key Characteristics
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.
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areas, this analysis finds that achievable rents do not justify new Class A office
construction even under favorable cost assumptions.
The spatial market dynamics observed in Palo Alto directly affect land values. Office
development potential aligns closely with the corridor zones. These higher value locations
support office development even at constrained densities, while lower value office
locations are more competitive for residential, though rental housing appears largely
infeasible under current market conditions and development policies.
Figure 2 - Office Market Premium Corridors
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Table 2 - Office Sale Prices in Palo Alto
Site #Address Sale Price Per Square
Foot1
Sale
Year1
1 206 California Ave $812 2024
2 3401 El Camino Real $1,600 2024
3 540 University Ave $828 2024
5 250 University Ave $1,969 2025
6 490 California Ave $516 2025
7 3950 Fabian Way $572 2025
8 1870 Embarcadero Rd $202 2025
9 3176 Porter Dr $578 2024
10 2882 Sand Hill Rd $1,632 2024
[1] CoStar Group Data; Sales Post 2024
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.
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Prototype Development Approach
Raimi + Associates (R+A) prepared zoning-compliant development prototypes for each
study test site to establish realistic site yield estimates for feasibility testing. As
summarized in Table 3 and Table 4, the study approach relied on a detailed review of
allowable floor area, height limits, open space requirements, and parking ratios across the
relevant zoning districts. The resulting real estate development “prototypes” reflect the
scale, massing, and construction types that a developer could realistically pursue under
current City regulations.
For residential prototypes, R+A developed a range of building forms appropriate to each
submarket, including ownership townhomes, mid-rise multifamily projects with parking
podiums, and for-sale condominiums. Table 3 presents the residential program developed
for each test site. The development programs incorporate typical dwelling unit
characteristics, efficiency assumptions, amenity programs, and parking configurations
consistent with development norms for the area and the differences between rental and
ownership formats.
For the office development prototypes, R+A designed low- and mid-rise Type I buildings
that match Palo Alto’s limited density allowances. Table 4 outlines the office programs
studied, which range from one to three stories depending on zoning. Parking layouts vary
by site and include structured parking, integrated garages, and limited surface spaces
consistent with site geometry and standards.
Construction Types Used in the Prototypes
The study’s real estate development prototypes rely on two primary construction types
most likely to be feasible for residential and office development in Palo Alto.
Type V residential construction is wood frame construction used for townhomes,
which follow a lighter structural system and remain within the height and scale
typically permitted in neighborhood contexts. Type V construction is also common
for the upper stories of rental apartment buildings. In these multifamily prototypes,
the residential floors are constructed with wood framing that sits above a concrete
parking podium. This configuration is common in midrise residential development
because it allows the project to achieve additional stories, with required parking
housed in a durable podium level while keeping the upper stories in a more cost-
efficient wood frame system.
Type I construction is concrete or steel structural construction that provides the
strength, fire rating, and structural spans needed for podium levels and for office
buildings. In the residential prototypes, Type I construction forms the concrete
parking podiums and any associated ground floor spaces that require higher load
Page 10
capacity or enhanced fire separation. In the office prototypes, Type I construction
is used for the full building structure, which ranges from one to three stories
depending on the zoning requirements for each site. This construction type
supports larger open floor plates, greater floor to floor heights, and higher
occupancy standards than can be accommodated in wood frame structures.
The financial feasibility analysis relies on the R+A development programs to establish
quantitative inputs to the pro forma model. Key analytical inputs informed by the R+A
work include gross and net square footage, unit counts, parking supply, and construction
typology. EPS prepared associated revenues and operating costs assumptions.
Table 5 provides a consolidated summary of these prototype development programs
across the four sites. The prototypes form the foundation for the feasibility testing and
sensitivity analysis. Prototypes generally reflect baseline zoning conditions with the
exception of the Downtown Scenario, which assumes waivers for FAR and height. These
waivers did not materially alter relative feasibility outcomes. The analysis provides a
consistent framework for comparing office and residential performance across sites with
distinct land use patterns and market conditions.
Table 3 - Residential Prototype Programs and Construction Types by Site
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.
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Table 4 - Office Prototype Programs and Construction Types by Site
Page 12
Table 5 - Summary of Prototype Development Programs by Site
Analytical Approach
This analysis applies a stabilized-year pro forma framework to estimate the land value that
each prototype can support. The method compares the value of a completed project at
stabilization (i.e., full occupancy) with total development cost, expressed in constant 2025
dollars. Stabilized value is derived from assumptions about market-supportable rents or
sale prices, operating costs, and capitalization rates. This approach provides an initial
indication of feasibility and not to model absorption, phasing, or other time-based cash
flows.
For each prototype, the analysis calculates a residual land value by subtracting total
development cost from the estimated value. The resulting “residual land value” represents
the price a project could theoretically pay for land acquisition while still meeting required
investment returns. Feasibility is evaluated by comparing the residual land values of office
and residential prototypes on the same site, which allows for a direct assessment of which
use is more competitive (i.e., “highest and best use”) under current market and cost
conditions.
Site Site Area
(Acres)
Prototype
Type GSF FAR Units Parking Spaces Parking Ratio
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.
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The analysis tests the residential and office prototypes prepared by R+A for each of the
four study sites. Feasibility outcomes reflect assumptions about building size, efficiency,
construction type, revenue performance, and parking configuration. Sensitivity tests on
rent, fees, density, and parking formats provide additional insight into how market and
policy factors influence the relative competitiveness of office and residential development
Summary of Key Terms
• Market Value – The estimated sale price of a real estate asset under current
market conditions, assuming a willing buyer and seller.
• Per-NSF Rent and Sale Price Assumptions – Rental rates and sale prices
expressed on a per-net-square-foot basis, informed by market data from
CoStar, Redfin, Zillow, and comparable high-quality new construction in Palo
Alto.
• NSF (Net Square Feet) – Interior usable space within a building, excluding
common areas, walls, and building service spaces.
• Hard Costs – Direct construction costs, including site work, labor, materials,
and contractor overhead.
• Soft Costs – Indirect development costs such as architecture, engineering,
permits, legal fees, financing costs, and other professional services.
• Other Costs – Costs not captured in hard or soft costs, including contingency
and development cost provisions for unforeseen conditions.
• Net Operating Income (NOI) – Annual operating revenue minus operating
expenses, excluding debt service, depreciation, and income taxes.
• Cap Rate (Capitalization Rate) – The investor’s required stabilized annual
return, calculated as net operating income divided by project value.
• Development Spread / Yield on Cost Premium – The additional return,
expressed in basis points, required to compensate for construction, entitlement,
and lease-up risk above the stabilized cap rate.
• ROC (Return on Cost) – An unlevered return metric comparing stabilized net
operating income to total development cost, commonly used to evaluate
development feasibility.
• Residual Land Value (RLV) – The difference between capitalized project
revenue and total development cost, representing the estimated value available
to support land acquisition given the assumed program and financial inputs.
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Key Assumptions
Revenue Assumptions
Revenue assumptions establish the valuation of each prototype and are central to
calculating residual land value. The categories below describe the key components of
revenue, including market rents and sale prices, capitalization rates, and investment return
expectations.
Market Rents and Sale Prices
Market rents and sale pricing reflect current achievable levels for newly delivered
products in each submarket. The assumptions utilized in this analysis are summarized in
Table 6.
Rental housing value is calculated using net square-foot monthly rents derived from the
observed performance of high-quality Class A buildings based on data from CoStar. Among
the test sites, Downtown achieves the highest apartment rents, owing to its walkability,
concentration of services, and immediate access to the University Avenue Caltrain station.
Rent in the Research Park and Mayfield remain strong but do not reach Downtown levels.
In contrast, Bayshore supports more moderate rents, reflecting its relative distance from
transit, services, and other neighborhood amenities.
For ownership housing, revenues are based on sale prices per net square foot for attached
residences built with Type V construction, based on data from Redfin, Zillow, CoStar, and
other sources. Townhomes in the Research Park and Bayshore benefit from substantial
demand among households seeking ownership opportunities in Palo Alto—one of the
region’s most supply-constrained for-sale housing markets. Prices reflect both the strong
purchasing power of local households and scarcity of new for-sale home inventory in the
city. While townhome prototypes are financially viable under current assumptions, recent
zoning amendments have increasingly sought to encourage higher-density forms of
ownership housing, such as through raising minimum density requirements and increasing
allowable heights and maximum densities.
Office rents are based on triple net (NNN) lease structures in which taxes, insurance, and
maintenance are paid by the tenant. The strongest office market rents are seen in
Downtown.
Capitalization Rates
Capitalization rates (“cap rates”) are a market factor that inform the relationship between
a building’s net operating income and property value. This relationship between property
income and value is central to feasibility calculations for income-generating commercial
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properties. Rental housing and office pro formas use cap rates that reflect current investor
expectations and the risk profile of each product type to estimate market value.
Rental housing analysis assumes a 4.0% cap rate, which is consistent with the long-term
stability of multifamily assets in supply constrained cities such as Palo Alto. Multifamily has
historically exhibited relatively low volatility due to consistently high demand and the
predictability of the income streams.
Office analysis assumes a 5.5% cap rate to reflect the greater volatility of the office market
and the higher perceived risk associated with tenant rollover (a higher cap rate indicates a
greater level of risk), leasing downtime, and changing workplace patterns. Office income is
more sensitive to macroeconomic cycles, company expansions and contractions, and
location-specific desirability. As a result, investors require a higher yield relative to
multifamily.
Yield Premiums for New Development
The spread between market cap rates for built and stabilized buildings and the developer’s
required return yield represents the investment premium necessary to justify the risk
associated with new development. This premium compensates the developer for taking on
construction risk, entitlement risk, lease-up uncertainty, and broader market fluctuations.
In this analysis, both office and rental housing require a single percentage point spread
above the market cap rate to justify new development. This means that in a market where
stabilized apartment buildings exhibit a 4.0 percent cap rate, developers need to achieve a
5.0 percent yield on cost for the project to be attractive. The same logic applies to office,
where the required development yield is 6.5 percent. These investment return thresholds
reflect the minimum profitability necessary to attract capital.
Return on Cost Expectations for Ownership Housing
Unlike rental housing and office, cap rates are not utilized in estimating potential values of
for-sale housing. Market value is established through review of market transactions.
Residual land values are then estimated by comparing sales revenue with development
cost, including a return on cost factor.
Townhome prototypes in this analysis require a 15 percent unlevered return on
development cost. This threshold is consistent with typical expectations for attached
ownership product in high cost, high entitlement complexity jurisdictions. It accounts for
construction risk, sales absorption risk, and the absence of recurring income. The 15
percent requirement reflects a typical investment threshold for ownership housing in the
Bay Area.
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Table 6 – Revenue Assumption Summary
Cost Assumptions
Real estate development cost assumptions include hard costs (i.e., direct construction
costs), soft costs, and other project costs such as developer return requirements.
Construction cost assumptions draw on published Bay Area cost benchmarks, including
from Marshall and Swift, as well as EPS experience on comparable development projects.
These costs vary by construction type, scale, and prototype.
Hard Costs
Hard costs include site work and vertical building construction expenses. For residential
prototypes, these costs also include required furniture, fixtures, and equipment.
Construction types differ across prototypes, ranging from Type V townhomes at lower
cost levels to Type I podium and Type I office structures with substantially higher per-
square-foot costs. Parking format is a major factor influencing overall construction costs.
Podium and subterranean parking involve significantly higher per-space costs than
integrated Type V garages or surface parking. Table 7 summarizes cost assumptions for
each site.
Site Use Avg Unit Size or
Office NSF Revenue Assumption Yield / Return
Assumption
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Soft Costs
Soft costs include design, engineering, entitlement, and administrative costs, as well as
estimates for taxes, insurance, and financing. Permit and fee estimates incorporate the
City of Palo Alto’s current development impact fees, including the affordable housing
impact fee. City staff derived fee estimates based on the R+A development programs using
the City’s current fee schedule. The analysis assumes that required below-market-rate
units are delivered on-site in both rental and ownership prototypes.
Other Project Costs
Other project costs include a development contingency allowance that applies to total
hard and soft costs, along with the required developer returns. For income-generating
uses such as office and rental housing, returns are modeled as a stabilized yield on cost. For
ownership housing, the return requirement is modeled as a one-time return on cost at time
of sale, reflecting the absence of ongoing operating income. These return expectations
reflect typical investor requirements in Bay Area markets.
Table 7 – Cost Assumptions Summary
Site Use Construction
Type
Direct
Construction Cost1 Parking Format Parking Cost
Assumption
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Developer Interviews
EPS conducted interviews in November with several development firms active or recently
active in Palo Alto, including Sand Hill Property Company (November 11), Sobrato
(November 5), and Sares Regis Group (November 13). These discussions were intended to
validate the assumptions used in the financial analysis, understand current market
conditions from practitioners operating in the city, and gather insight into how developers
interpret redevelopment potential under existing zoning and market constraints.
Across all interviews, firms stated that the key findings of the financial analysis reasonably
reflect current conditions in the Palo Alto market. They noted that revenue assumptions
for office, rental housing, and ownership housing align with pricing observed in recent
projects, and that construction cost assumptions are generally consistent with recent bids
and contracts. The only meaningful point of divergence is related to for-sale townhomes.
Multiple firms indicated that townhome sale prices assumed in the analysis may be
conservative relative to actual market potential. To maintain a cautious approach
appropriate for long-range planning, the analysis retains conservative sale pricing.
However, the sensitivity testing discussed below illustrates the effect of stronger pricing
on feasibility outcomes.
Firms also offered perspective on the policy implications of the feasibility scenarios. In
general, interviewees emphasized that Palo Alto’s premier office locations, particularly
Downtown, California Avenue, and Research Park, command exceptional rents and
maintain strong tenant demand despite limited density allowances. They noted that these
districts are prestige office markets with deep regional appeal, which means that the
inherent value of office in these locations is not easily diminished through straightforward
disincentives such as increased fees, taxes, or regulatory burdens. In their view, efforts to
suppress office demand directly are unlikely to shift development patterns in a meaningful
way.
Interviewees broadly indicated that policies that improve the feasibility of housing would
likely be more effective at shifting development outcomes toward housing over other uses.
They highlighted several suggestions to make residential projects more competitive
relative to office, including lower density allowances that better match demand and
construction economics, more predictable entitlement pathways, and adjustments to
parking requirements. A notable refrain was the desire for streamlined entitlements and
lower minimum density requirements for housing, specifically to allow townhome
development. Interviewees also observed that the relative competitiveness of office on
the highest-value sites reflects structural market conditions, rather than analytical
assumptions.
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Feasibility Findings
The feasibility results for the four study test sites show clear patterns in how office, rental
housing, and for-sale housing perform under current market conditions and zoning
requirements. Test fits represent current zoning, including allowed density increases
through the City’s Housing Incentive Program and State Density Bonus Law. Outcomes
vary across submarkets, but the key drivers are consistent: achievable rent and sale prices,
construction costs, and zoning. The findings below summarize how each prototype
performs relative to these factors. Table 8 shows estimated residual land value per acre
for office and residential prototypes across the four test sites. Note that the Site 1
scenarios are mixed-use prototypes that include a ground-floor retail component. The
residential and office RLV/acre values shown in Table 8 are derived based on the sum of
the component pro formas (e.g., residential RLV + retail RLV), translated to a per-acre
basis. See proformas in Appendix A for detailed calculations for each use component.
Office Development
Office results in a positive land value in all four locations and remains the highest and best
use in the more desirable commercial locations, Downtown and in Mayfield. Downtown,
monthly achievable rents approach $8.50 per net square foot, producing a residual land
value of nearly $13.1 million per acre, the highest in the study. Office also outperforms
residential at the Mayfield site, with supportable residual land value estimated at $3.6
million per acre. At these sites, the land value gap between office and residential appears
to exceed what cost-based policy interventions typically seek to solve.
Multifamily Rental Housing
Multifamily rental housing is the most challenged of the tested uses and is marginally
viable only in the highest-value locations under current market conditions. At Mayfield,
the rental prototype appears infeasible, generating negative residual land value due to
modest achievable rents and the cost structure of a mid-rise podium building. Among the
locations tested, Downtown is the only area where rental housing generates a positive
residual land value; however, at approximately $1.9 million per acre, this outcome would
require site acquisition costs well below prevailing market levels to achieve near-term
feasibility.
Taken together, the results indicate that today’s rent levels, combined with podium
construction costs and parking obligations, create a substantial near-term feasibility
barrier for rental housing across much of the city. Importantly, these findings represent a
snapshot in time rather than a long-term constraint on multifamily development. The
City currently has a broader development pipeline of over 3,000 multifamily units
proposed or entitled, including projects advancing within the Housing Focus Area along El
Camino Real, increased zoning capacity in other areas such as San Antonio Road,
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developments such as Fabian Way that are proceeding under base zoning rather than
through Builder’s Remedy, and projects leveraging state density bonus incentives. With
the exception of a small-scale project of approximately eight units, no multifamily
developments are currently under construction in the city as of February 12, 2026. This is
consistent with cyclical development patterns in which developers prioritize entitlements
during weaker market conditions in order to be positioned to deliver housing once capital
markets and rental fundamentals improve.
For-Sale Townhomes
For-sale townhomes are consistently feasible and, in some cases, outcompete office. At
Research Park and Bayshore, townhomes generate residual land values of $10.7 million
and $11.4 million per acre, respectively. These figures reflect strong demand for
townhome development in Palo Alto. Townhomes are the only residential product that
outperforms office, indicating that lower-density ownership housing formats can be the
highest and best land use in some locations, absent any additional policy intervention.
Downtown For-Sale Multifamily
The financial analysis also tested a Downtown condominium concept. Findings from this
test suggest that a mid-rise for-sale multifamily project could support $8 million or more in
residual land value per acre, outperforming the rental prototype on the same site. The
finding indicates that a mid-rise condominium product could be viable Downtown, though
the office use still appears preferable.
Table 8 – Summary of Feasibility Findings
SITE HOUSING
TYPE
RESIDENTIAL
RLV/ ACRE
OFFICE
TYPE
OFFICE
RLV/ ACRE
[1] Site 1 projects include groundfloor retail. RLV values shown here for Site 1 combine RLV outputs
from the primary uses (residential or office) with RLV outputs from their respective retail uses, and
converts the sums to a per-acre value.
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Sensitivity Analysis
Sensitivity analysis evaluates how key inputs to the financial analysis influence the relative
feasibility of office and residential development across the four Palo Alto study test sites.
The sensitivity analysis considers the impact of market conditions and potential policy
options. Consistent with other study results, residual land value determines which land use
is more competitive at each site as key inputs are evaluated.
In the tables that accompany this section, grey shading indicates that the residual land
value for office falls below the residential alternative, meaning residential becomes the
highest and best land use at the test site. The shading allows readers to see where shifts in
rent or fee levels meaningfully alter development feasibility outcomes.
Commercial Linkage Fee Sensitivity
A key policy consideration is whether the City of Palo Alto should add to the cost of office
development in an effort to disincentivize that use. This might be done through fees, taxes,
or other measures. The analysis considers increases to the City’s commercial linkage fee,
though any City-controlled mechanism that adds to the cost of office development without
adding to the cost of housing development could serve the same purpose. The analysis
tested a wide range of commercial linkage fee levels for each office prototype, including
values both below and above the current fee of $80 per square foot. The goal is to
understand whether fee adjustments could realistically shift feasibility away from office
and toward residential development.1
The results show that marginal changes to fees produce only modest movement in
feasibility. Office performance in Palo Alto is shaped primarily by achievable rent and the
cost efficiency of low- and mid-rise office formats. At two of the study sites, office is
already less competitive than residential, so fee changes have no effect. At the remaining
sites where office continues to outperform residential, the fee would need to increase to
levels well above normal policy practice before office would no longer be the highest and
best use. In Mayfield, the fee would need to approximately double. In Downtown, it would
need to increase by almost an order of magnitude (1,000%). These levels may not be
realistic from a policy perspective and any changes to development impact fees would
need to be evaluated for compliance with applicable state and local laws.
1 Note that while the study contemplates changes to the commercial linkage fee, the sensitivity testing examines fee levels
that may not be supportable by “nexus” analysis required to substantiate legal impact fees in California.
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Rent Sensitivity
The rent sensitivity analysis tested office rents in increments of 25 cents per square foot.
These increments reflect realistic movement within Palo Alto’s office submarkets. Rent
changes have a strong influence on feasibility because rent directly influences project
value. Importantly, the City has no control over private lease rates, yet shifting rent levels
determine whether office development remains viable. In high value locations such as the
downtown core, even small rent changes produce visible shifts in competitiveness. In
lower value areas such as Bayshore, office rents are likely to remain too low for office to
outperform residential. These results highlight that development feasibility is primarily
market driven and that policy interventions typically only influence outcomes at the
margin.
Sensitivity Test Results
At Site 1, the residual land value for office is $3.57 million per acre compared with a
residual land value of residential estimated at negative $0.58 million per acre, indicating
that office development is substantially more feasible under current conditions. Table 9
shows how office rents and the commercial linkage fee would need to shift for office
feasibility to fall such that residential becomes the highest and best use. If office rents
remain at today’s levels, the commercial linkage fee would need to roughly double for
office to underperform residential. If the fee remains unchanged, office rents would need
to decline by about fifty cents, to roughly $7 per square foot, for residential development
to be a competitive option.
Table 9 - Site 1 – Mayfield Residual Land Value (in Millions) Sensitivity: Commercial Linkage Fee
and Office Market Rent
$3.57 $0 $40 $80 $120 $160 $200 $240 $280 $700
$6.75 $3.04 $0.20 ($2.84)($5.46) ($8.30) ($11.13) ($13.97) ($16.80) ($46.57)
$7.00 $5.18 $2.34 ($0.70)($3.33) ($6.16) ($9.00) ($11.83) ($14.67) ($44.43)
$7.25 $7.32 $4.48 $1.44 ($1.19) ($4.02) ($6.86) ($9.69) ($12.53) ($42.29)
$7.50 $9.45 $6.62 $3.57 $0.95 ($1.88) ($4.72) ($7.55) ($10.39) ($40.16)
$7.75 $11.59 $8.76 $5.71 $3.09 $0.25 ($2.58) ($5.42) ($8.25) ($38.02)
$8.00 $13.73 $10.90 $7.85 $5.23 $2.39 ($0.44) ($3.28) ($6.11) ($35.88)
$8.25 $15.87 $13.03 $9.99 $7.36 $4.53 $1.70 ($1.14) ($3.97) ($33.74)
$8.50 $18.01 $15.17 $12.13 $9.50 $6.67 $3.83 $1.00 ($1.84) ($31.60)
Commercial Linkage Fee/ SF
Rent/SF
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At Site 2, office residual land value is already below residential residual land value. Office is
valued at $8.12 million per acre while residential is valued at $10.7 million per acre as
shown in Table 10. This outcome reflects the favorable development economics of the
townhome prototype, which are more feasible than rental housing in today’s market. It
also reflects that Site 2 is not a premium office location and office development density is
constrained.
Table 10 – Site 2 – Research Park Residual Land Value (in Millions) Sensitivity: Commercial
Linkage Fee and Office Market Rent
Site 3 is the highest value office project tested by the study. The residual land value for an
office project is estimated at $13.3 million per acre, compared with a residential residual
land value of $1.86 million per acre, as shown in Table 11. Bringing office land value down
to residential rental levels would require nearly a 10-fold increase in fees comparable cost
increase achieved through other means.
Table 11 – Site 3 – Downtown Residual Land Value (in Millions) Sensitivity: Commercial Linkage
Fee and Office Market Rent
$8.12 $0 $40 $80 $120 $160 $200 $240 $280 $700
$6.25 $7.45 $6.69 $5.92 $5.15 $4.39 $3.62 $2.86 $2.09 ($5.95)
$6.50 $8.19 $7.42 $6.65 $5.89 $5.12 $4.36 $3.59 $2.83 ($5.22)
$6.75 $8.92 $8.16 $7.39 $6.62 $5.86 $5.09 $4.33 $3.56 ($4.48)
$7.00 $9.66 $8.89 $8.12 $7.36 $6.59 $5.83 $5.06 $4.30 ($3.75)
$7.25 $10.39 $9.63 $8.86 $8.09 $7.33 $6.56 $5.80 $5.03 ($3.01)
$7.50 $11.13 $10.36 $9.60 $8.83 $8.06 $7.30 $6.53 $5.77 ($2.27)
$7.75 $11.86 $11.10 $10.33 $9.56 $8.80 $8.03 $7.27 $6.50 ($1.54)
$8.00 $12.60 $11.83 $11.07 $10.30 $9.53 $8.77 $8.00 $7.24 ($0.80)
Commercial Linkage Fee/ SF
Rent/SF
$13.13 $0 $40 $80 $120 $160 $200 $240 $280 $700
$7.75 $12.38 $11.65 $10.92 $10.19 $9.46 $8.73 $8.00 $7.27 ($0.39)
$8.00 $13.11 $12.38 $11.66 $10.93 $10.20 $9.47 $8.74 $8.01 $0.35
$8.25 $13.85 $13.12 $12.39 $11.66 $10.94 $10.21 $9.48 $8.75 $1.09
$8.50 $14.59 $13.86 $13.13 $12.40 $11.67 $10.94 $10.21 $9.49 $1.83
$8.75 $15.33 $14.60 $13.87 $13.14 $12.41 $11.68 $10.95 $10.22 $2.56
$9.00 $16.07 $15.34 $14.61 $13.88 $13.15 $12.42 $11.69 $10.96 $3.30
$9.25 $16.81 $16.08 $15.35 $14.62 $13.89 $13.16 $12.43 $11.70 $4.04
$9.50 $17.55 $16.82 $16.09 $15.36 $14.63 $13.90 $13.17 $12.44 $4.78
Rent/SF
Commercial Linkage Fee/ SF
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At Site 4, office is found to be less feasible than residential development, as shown in Table
12. Bayshore is the weakest office submarket among the four sites given its location a
distance from the city’s strongest office districts. This compares with a residential
townhome prototype that performs very well. Across the full range of rent and fee
combinations tested in the sensitivity analysis, office never outperforms residential, and
there is no sensitivity scenario evaluated in which office becomes the higher value use.
Table 12 - Site 4 – Bayshore Residual Land Value (in Millions) Sensitivity: Commercial Linkage
Fee and Office Market Rent
$0.75 $0 $40 $80 $120 $160 $200 $240 $280 $700
$3.50 ($0.01) ($0.75)($1.48)($2.21) ($2.94) ($3.67) ($4.40) ($5.13) ($12.82)
$3.75 $0.73 ($0.00)($0.74)($1.47) ($2.20) ($2.93) ($3.66) ($4.39) ($12.07)
$4.00 $1.47 $0.74 $0.00 ($0.73) ($1.46) ($2.19) ($2.92) ($3.65) ($11.33)
$4.25 $2.21 $1.48 $0.75 $0.01 ($0.72) ($1.45) ($2.18) ($2.91) ($10.59)
$4.50 $2.95 $2.22 $1.49 $0.75 $0.02 ($0.71) ($1.44) ($2.17) ($9.85)
$4.75 $3.69 $2.96 $2.23 $1.50 $0.76 $0.03 ($0.70) ($1.43) ($9.11)
$5.00 $4.43 $3.70 $2.97 $2.24 $1.50 $0.77 $0.04 ($0.69) ($8.37)
$5.25 $5.17 $4.44 $3.71 $2.98 $2.25 $1.51 $0.78 $0.05 ($7.63)
Commercial Linkage Fee/ SF
Rent/SF
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Conclusion
The feasibility analysis shows that office development in Palo Alto is highly location
dependent and that market forces play a large role in shaping development potential, as
compared with marginal policy interventions. In the highest value office areas, such as
Downtown, offices are likely to continue to outperform both rental and for-sale residential
by a wide margin. These districts command strong rents and benefit from inherent
locational advantages that fee adjustments or minor regulatory changes cannot
meaningfully counteract.
The analysis also demonstrates that there are several locations in which residential
development is currently more feasible than office, especially when modeled as ownership
townhomes. This pattern is most pronounced in mid-value and lower-value office markets
such as Bayshore, where ownership housing achieves high residual land values and, in
some cases, outperforms offices under current zoning. These findings reveal that
ownership-based residential formats represent a viable and competitive development
option in many parts of the city.
Rental housing faces the greatest feasibility challenges across the study area. Podium
construction costs, moderate achievable rents outside Downtown, and inclusionary
housing requirements all contribute to estimated residual land values that generally fall
below those of office or ownership housing.
Any City development incentives or policy options to incentivize housing over office
should seek to target unique submarket characteristics in Palo Alto, reflective of the
economic conditions present in each area. Most likely, high-value office districts will
remain dominated by office unless zoning capacity changes. It is unlikely cost-adding
measures can meaningfully shift outcomes in favor of housing. In some areas, it may be
that adjusting zoning to reduce minimum density could be a meaningful incentive to
promote housing.
Page 26
Policy Considerations and Recommendations
Policy tools are available if the City wishes to influence the relative feasibility of office
development in locations where its use currently outperforms residential. Impact fees,
taxes, and building standards are the most likely tools to add cost to office development in
an effort to disincentivize it. Zoning changes are also an option to reduce office
development.
Fees. Increases to development impact fees (e.g., commercial linkage fee), subject to
Council approval, could raise the cost of office development and narrow the gap between
office and residential development potential.
Taxes. A high construction tax represents a potential approach to adding to office
development project costs. A tax on office development would need to be voter approved.
Building Standards. Elevated building standards for office development, including
enhanced sustainability performance, higher energy requirements, labor requirements or
other obligations that increase construction cost could marginally decrease office
feasibility.
Land Use Regulation. The City could change zoning or otherwise further restrict office
development allowances, although since most districts already limit commercial densities
to relatively low standards there may not be the ability to lower them further (most
districts only allow 0.4 FAR of commercial). In areas with higher allowances, some
additional reduction in office density may discourage development (zones with 1.0-2.0
FAR zones often require ground-floor retail).
These and other related policy approaches would reduce office feasibility. However, such
tools are likely most effective in marginal office locations where residual land value is near
residential levels. In the highest-value districts such as Downtown, even aggressive fees or
cost-increasing requirements may not be sufficient to overcome strong market
fundamentals.
Developer interviews also emphasized that while disincentives can shift outcomes at the
margin, the City would be better served focusing on incentives for residential
development. Streamlined approvals that reduce project risk, lower minimum densities
that promote townhomes, and flexibility around parking site planning may ultimately have
a greater impact on housing production. A balance between incentives and disincentives
will be essential to ensuring that policy interventions align with both market realities and
the City’s long-term land use goals.
Appendix A. Office and Residential
Development Proformas by Site
Site 1: Mayfield
Use: Mid-Rise Market Rate Residential Rental
DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM ASSUMPTIONS ASSUMPTION/FACTOR
Development Site (Square Feet)34,286
Dwelling Units 102 DU / Acre 80
Gross Building Area (Square Feet)1,052 GBA / DU 84,149
Net Rentable Square Feet 79%Efficiency Factor 66,721
Total Parking Spaces 1.1 Spaces / DU 90
Podium Parking Spaces 100%of total parking 90
BUILDING VALUE ASSUMPTION/FACTOR PER GBA TOTAL
Gross Potential Rent $5.50 per SF/Month $52 $4,403,586
Gross Potential Parking Income $0.00 per Space/Month $0 $0
Losses to Vacancy 5.00%of Gross Income -$3 -$220,179
Gross Residential Revenue $50 $4,183,407
Operating Expenses 30%of Gross Revenue -$15 -$1,255,022
Net Operating Income (NOI)$35 $2,928,385
Market Value 4.00%Capitalization Rate $870 $73,209,617
Development Spread 100 Basis Points -$174 -$14,641,923
Supportable Development Value 5.00%Project Yield Rate (on NOI)$696 $58,567,694
PROJECT DEVELOPMENT COSTS ASSUMPTION/FACTOR PER GBA TOTAL
Hard Costs
Basic Site Work $20 per SF (Site)$8 $685,720
Building Direct Cost $429 Cost/SF (GBA)$429 $36,099,921
Parking Direct Cost
Podium w/ Puzzle System Parking Cost $65,000 per Space $70 $5,850,000
Total Construction Cost $507 $42,635,641
Soft Costs
Architecture and Engineering 4.0%of Construction Cost $20 $1,705,426
Other Soft Costs 2.0%of Construction Cost $10 $852,713
Permits and Fees 2.0%of Construction Cost $10 $852,713
Development Impact Fees $39,794 per DU $38 $3,183,535
Public Art In-Lieu Fee 1.0%of Construction Cost $4,737 $426,356
Housing Impact Fee $26 per SF $21 $1,734,746
Taxes and Insurance 2.0%of Construction Cost $10 $852,713
Financing 7.0%of Construction Cost $35 $2,984,495
Marketing/Leasing 2.0%of Construction Cost $10 $852,713
Developer Fee 4.0%of Construction Cost $20 $1,705,426
Total Soft Costs 35.5%$180 $15,150,835
Other Project Costs
Development Contingency 5.0%of Construction & Soft Costs $34 $2,889,324
Total Project Cost $721 $60,675,800
Residual Land Value -$2,108,106
per net acre -$2,678,327
Site 1: Mayfield
Use: Ground-Floor Retail (component of Residential Scenario)
DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM ASSUMPTIONS ASSUMPTION/FACTOR
Gross Building Area (Square Feet)4,593
Rentable Building Area (Square Feet)100%of GBA 4,593
BUILDING VALUE ASSUMPTION/FACTOR PER GBA TOTAL
Gross Potential Rent $4.81 per SF/Month (NNN)$58 $265,016
Losses to Vacancy 5.00%of GPR -$3 -$13,251
Gross Office Revenue $55 $251,765
Operating Expenses 3%of Gross Revenue -$2 -$7,553
Net Operating Income $53 $244,212
Market Value 4.00%Capitalization Rate $1,329 $6,105,308
Development Spread 100 Basis Points -$266 -$1,221,062
Supportable Development Value 5.00%Project Yield Rate (on NOI)$1,063 $4,884,247
PROJECT DEVELOPMENT COSTS ASSUMPTION/FACTOR PER GBA TOTAL
Hard Costs
Building Direct Cost $505 Cost/SF (GBA)$505 $2,319,465
Tenant Improvement Cost $0 Cost/SF (RBA)$0 $0
Total Construction Cost $505 $2,319,465
Soft Costs
Architecture and Engineering 4.0%of Construction Cost $20 $92,779
Other Soft Costs 2.0%of Construction Cost $10 $46,389
Permits and Fees 2.0%of Construction Cost $10 $46,389
Development Impact Fees*$44 per SF (GBA)$44 $203,204
Public Art In-Lieu Fee 1.0%of Construction Cost $5 $23,195
Taxes and Insurance 2.0%of Construction Cost $10 $46,389
Financing 7.0%of Construction Cost $35 $162,363
Marketing/Leasing 2.0%of Construction Cost $10 $46,389
Developer Fee 4.0%of Construction Cost $20 $92,779
Total Soft Costs 32.8%of Construction Cost $165 $759,876
Other Project Costs
Development Contingency 5.0%of Construction & Soft Costs $34 $153,967
Total Project Cost $704 $3,233,308
Residual Land Value $1,650,939
*Impact Fees apportioned to retail use based on retail's percent of total scenario's square footage.
Site 1: Mayfield
Use: Class A Office
DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM ASSUMPTIONS ASSUMPTION/FACTOR
Net Development Site (Square Feet)34,286
FAR 1.4
Gross Building Area (Square Feet)48,400
Rentable Building Area (Square Feet)82%of GBA 39,573
Total Parking Spaces 3.8 per 1,000 SF 149
Structured Parking Spaces 23%of total parking 35
Subterranean Parking Spaces 77%of total parking 114
BUILDING VALUE ASSUMPTION/FACTOR PER GBA TOTAL
Gross Potential Rent $7.50 per SF/Month (NNN)$74 $3,561,532
Gross Potential Parking Income $150 per Space/Month $6 $268,200
Losses to Vacancy 5.00%of GPR -$4 -$191,487
Gross Office Revenue $75 $3,638,245
Operating Expenses 3.00%of Gross Revenue -$2 -$109,147
Net Operating Income $73 $3,529,098
Market Value 5.50%Capitalization Rate $1,326 $64,165,416
Development Spread 100 Basis Points -$204 -$9,871,602
Supportable Development Value 6.50%Project Yield Rate (on NOI)$1,122 $54,293,814
PROJECT DEVELOPMENT COSTS ASSUMPTION/FACTOR PER GBA TOTAL
Hard Costs
Basic Site Work $20 Cost/SF (Site)$14 $685,720
Building Direct Cost $505 Cost/SF (GBA)$505 $24,441,756
Tenant Improvement Cost $0 Cost/SF (RBA)$0 $0
Parking Direct Cost
Podium Parking Cost $50,000 per Space $36 $1,750,000
Subterranean Parking Cost $85,000 per Space $200 $9,690,000
Total Construction Cost $756 $36,567,476
Soft Costs
Architecture and Engineering 4.0%of Construction Cost $30 $1,462,699
Other Soft Costs 2.0%of Construction Cost $15 $731,350
Permits and Fees 2.0%of Construction Cost $15 $731,350
Development Impact Fees $83 per SF (GBA)$83 $4,015,613
Public Art In-Lieu Fee 1.0%of Construction Cost $8 $365,675
Taxes and Insurance 2.0%of Construction Cost $15 $731,350
Financing 7.0%of Construction Cost $53 $2,559,723
Marketing/Leasing 2.0%of Construction Cost $15 $731,350
Developer Fee 4.0%of Construction Cost $30 $1,462,699
Total Soft Costs 35.0%of Construction Cost $264 $12,791,807
Other Project Costs
Development Contingency 5.0%of Construction & Soft Costs $51 $2,467,964
Total Project Cost $1,071 $51,827,247
Residual Land Value $2,466,566
per net acre $3,133,746
Site 1: Mayfield
Use: Ground-Floor Retail (component of Office Scenario)
DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM ASSUMPTIONS ASSUMPTION/FACTOR
Gross Building Area (Square Feet)4,728
Rentable Building Area (Square Feet)100%of GBA 4,728
BUILDING VALUE ASSUMPTION/FACTOR PER GBA TOTAL
Gross Potential Rent $4.81 per SF/Month (NNN)$58 $272,806
Losses to Vacancy 5.00%of GPR -$3 -$13,640
Gross Office Revenue $55 $259,165
Operating Expenses 3%of Gross Revenue -$2 -$7,775
Net Operating Income $53 $251,390
Market Value 5.50%Capitalization Rate $967 $4,570,734
Development Spread 100 Basis Points -$149 -$703,190
Supportable Development Value 6.50%Project Yield Rate (on NOI)$818 $3,867,544
PROJECT DEVELOPMENT COSTS ASSUMPTION/FACTOR PER GBA TOTAL
Construction Costs
Building Direct Cost $505 Cost/SF (GBA)$505 $2,387,640
Tenant Improvement Cost $0 Cost/SF (RBA)$0 $0
Total Construction Cost $505 $2,387,640
Soft Costs
Architecture and Engineering 4.0%of Construction Cost $20 $95,506
Other Soft Costs 2.0%of Construction Cost $10 $47,753
Permits and Fees 2.0%of Construction Cost $10 $47,753
Development Impact Fees*$83 per SF (GBA)$83 $392,273
Public Art In-Lieu Fee 1.0%of Construction Cost $5 $23,876
Taxes and Insurance 2.0%of Construction Cost $10 $47,753
Financing 7.0%of Construction Cost $35 $167,135
Marketing/Leasing 2.0%of Construction Cost $10 $47,753
Developer Fee 4.0%of Construction Cost $20 $95,506
Total Soft Costs 40.4%of Construction Cost $204 $965,306
Other Project Costs
Development Contingency 5.0%of Construction & Soft Costs $35 $167,647
Total Project Cost $745 $3,520,594
Residual Land Value $346,950
*Impact Fees apportioned to retail use based on retail's percent of total scenario's square footage.
Site 2: Research Park
Use: Townhouse Ownership Residential
DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM ASSUMPTIO ASSUMPTION/FACTOR
Development Site (Square Feet)138,956
Dwelling Units 21 DU / Acre 68
Market Rate Units 58
Affordable Units 10
Gross Building Area (Square Feet)2,128 GBA / DU 144,720
Net Saleable Square Feet 75%Efficiency Factor 108,624
Market Rate NSF 92,650
Affordable NSF 15,974
Total Parking Spaces 2.0 Spaces / DU 136
Integrated Garage Parking Spaces 100%of total parking 136
BUILDING VALUE ASSUMPTION/FACTOR PER GBA TOTAL
Sale Value
Market Rate Sale Value $1,100 per NSF $704 $101,914,871
Affordable Sale Value $678,152 per DU $47 $6,781,518
Overall Sale Value $751 $108,696,388
Sale Cost 5.00%of Sale Value -$38 -$5,434,819
Net Building Value $103,261,569
Supportable Development Value 15.00%Return on Cost (Unlevered)$620 $89,792,669
PROJECT DEVELOPMENT COSTS ASSUMPTION/FACTOR PER GBA TOTAL
Hard Costs
Basic Site Work $20 per SF (Site)$19 $2,779,120
Building Direct Cost $320
Total Construction Cost $273 $39,442,800
Soft Costs
Total Soft Costs 34.1%$93 $13,443,578
Other Project Costs
Total Project Cost $384 $55,530,697
Residual Land Value $34,261,971
per net acre $10,740,461
a separate hard cost line item.
Site 2: Research Park
Use: Class A Office
DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM ASSUMPTIONS ASSUMPTION/FACTOR
Net Development Site (Square Feet)138,956
FAR 0.4
Gross Building Area (Square Feet)58,164
Rentable Building Area (Square Feet)95%of GBA 55,141
Total Parking Spaces 3.4 per 1,000 SF 185
Surface Parking Spaces 100%of total parking 185
BUILDING VALUE ASSUMPTION/FACTOR PER GBA TOTAL
Gross Potential Rent $7.00 per SF/Month (NNN)$80 $4,631,844
Gross Potential Parking Income $150 per Space/Month $6 $333,000
Losses to Vacancy 5.00%of GPR -$4 -$248,242
Gross Office Revenue $81 $4,716,602
Operating Expenses 3.00%of Gross Revenue -$2 -$141,498
Net Operating Income $79 $4,575,104
Market Value 5.50%Capitalization Rate $1,430 $83,183,704
Development Spread 100 Basis Points -$220 -$12,797,493
Supportable Development Value 6.50%Project Yield Rate (on NOI)$1,210 $70,386,211
PROJECT DEVELOPMENT COSTS ASSUMPTION/FACTOR PER GBA TOTAL
Construction Costs
Basic Site Work $20 Cost/SF (Site)$48 $2,779,120
Building Direct Cost $459 Cost/SF (GBA)$459 $26,697,276
Tenant Improvement Cost $0 Cost/SF (RBA)$0 $0
Parking Direct Cost
Surface Parking Cost $5,000 per Space $16 $925,000
Total Construction Cost $523 $30,401,396
Soft Costs
Architecture and Engineering 4.0%of Construction Cost $21 $1,216,056
Other Soft Costs 2.0%of Construction Cost $10 $608,028
Permits and Fees 2.0%of Construction Cost $10 $608,028
Development Impact Fees $80 per SF (GBA)$80 $4,653,120
Public Art In-Lieu Fee 1.0%of Construction Cost $5 $304,014
Taxes and Insurance 2.0%of Construction Cost $10 $608,028
Financing 7.0%of Construction Cost $37 $2,128,098
Marketing/Leasing 2.0%of Construction Cost $10 $608,028
Developer Fee 4.0%of Construction Cost $21 $1,216,056
Total Soft Costs 39.3%of Construction Cost $205 $11,949,455
Other Project Costs
Development Contingency 5.0%of Construction & Soft Costs $36 $2,117,543
Total Project Cost $765 $44,468,394
Residual Land Value $25,917,818
per net acre $8,124,731
Site 3: Downtown
Use: Mid-Rise Market Rate Residential Rental
DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM ASSUMPTIONS ASSUMPTION/FACTOR
Development Site (Square Feet)21,529
Dwelling Units 67 DU / Acre 33
Market Rate Units 30
Affordable Units 10%Percent Affordable 3
Gross Building Area (Square Feet)1,130 GBA / DU 37,295
Net Rentable Square Feet 74%Efficiency Factor 27,769
Market Rate NSF 25,245
Affordable NSF 2,524
Total Parking Spaces 0.4 Spaces / DU 14
Surface Parking Spaces 71%of total parking 10
Integrated Garage Parking Spaces 29%of total parking 4
BUILDING VALUE ASSUMPTION/FACTOR PER GBA TOTAL
Gross Potential Rent
Market Rate Rent $6.25 per SF/Month $51 $1,893,341
Affordable Rent $1,941 per DU $0 $5,823
Gross Potential Rent $51 $1,899,164
Gross Potential Parking Income $0.00 per Space/Month $0 $0
Losses to Vacancy (Market Only)5.00%of Gross Income -$3 -$94,667
Gross Residential Revenue $48 $1,804,497
Operating Expenses -$18,933 per DU -$17 -$624,803
Net Operating Income (NOI)$32 $1,179,694
Market Value 4.00%Capitalization Rate $983,079 $29,492,359
Development Spread 100 Basis Points -$196,616 -$5,898,472
Supportable Development Value 5.00%Project Yield Rate (on NOI)$786,463 $23,593,887
PROJECT DEVELOPMENT COSTS ASSUMPTION/FACTOR PER GBA TOTAL
Hard Costs
Basic Site Work $20 per SF (Site)$12 $430,580
Building Direct Cost $423 Cost/SF (GBA)$423 $15,775,785
Parking Direct Cost
Surface Parking Cost $5,000 per Space $1 $50,000
Integrated Garage Cost $14,000 per Space $4 $140,000
Total Construction Cost $440 $16,396,365
Soft Costs
Architecture and Engineering 4.0%of Construction Cost $18 $655,855
Other Soft Costs 2.0%of Construction Cost $9 $327,927
Permits and Fees 2.0%of Construction Cost $9 $327,927
Development Impact Fees $36,273 per DU $32 $1,197,019
Public Art In-Lieu Fee 1.0%of Construction Cost $4 $163,964
Housing Impact Fee $26 per SF (Fractional Aff. Unit)$2 $65,636
Taxes and Insurance 2.0%of Construction Cost $9 $327,927
Financing 7.0%of Construction Cost $31 $1,147,746
Marketing/Leasing 2.0%of Construction Cost $9 $327,927
Developer Fee 4.0%of Construction Cost $18 $655,855
Total Soft Costs 31.7%$139 $5,197,782
Other Project Costs
Development Contingency 5.0%of Construction & Soft Costs $29 $1,079,707
Total Project Cost $608 $22,673,854
Residual Land Value $920,033
per net acre $1,861,519
Site 3: Downtown
Use: Class A Office
DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM ASSUMPTIONS ASSUMPTION/FACTOR
Net Development Site (Square Feet)21,529
FAR 0.4
Gross Building Area (Square Feet)8,584
Rentable Building Area (Square Feet)100%of GBA 8,584
Total Parking Spaces 3.5 per 1,000 SF 26
Surface Parking Spaces 100%of total parking 26
BUILDING VALUE ASSUMPTION/FACTOR PER GBA TOTAL
Gross Potential Rent $8.50 per SF/Month (NNN)$102 $875,568
Gross Potential Parking Income $150 per Space/Month $5 $46,354
Losses to Vacancy 5.00%of GPR -$5 -$46,096
Gross Office Revenue $102 $875,826
Operating Expenses 3.00%of Gross Revenue -$3 -$26,275
Net Operating Income $99 $849,551
Market Value 5.50%Capitalization Rate $1,799 $15,446,377
Development Spread 100 Basis Points -$277 -$2,376,366
Supportable Development Value 6.50%Project Yield Rate (on NOI)$1,523 $13,070,012
PROJECT DEVELOPMENT COSTS ASSUMPTION/FACTOR PER GBA TOTAL
Hard Costs
Basic Site Work $20 Cost/SF (Site)$50 $430,580
Building Direct Cost $459 Cost/SF (GBA)$459 $3,940,056
Tenant Improvement Cost $0 Cost/SF (RBA)$0 $0
Parking Direct Cost
Surface Parking Cost $5,000 per Space $15 $128,760
Total Construction Cost $524 $4,499,396
Soft Costs
Architecture and Engineering 4.0%of Construction Cost $21 $179,976
Other Soft Costs 2.0%of Construction Cost $10 $89,988
Permits and Fees 2.0%of Construction Cost $10 $89,988
Development Impact Fees $80 per SF (GBA)$80 $686,720
Public Art In-Lieu Fee 1.0%of Construction Cost $5 $44,994
Taxes and Insurance 2.0%of Construction Cost $10 $89,988
Financing 7.0%of Construction Cost $37 $314,958
Marketing/Leasing 2.0%of Construction Cost $10 $89,988
Developer Fee 4.0%of Construction Cost $21 $179,976
Total Soft Costs 39.3%of Construction Cost $206 $1,766,575
Other Project Costs
Development Contingency 5.0%of Construction & Soft Costs $36 $313,299
Total Project Cost $766 $6,579,270
Residual Land Value $6,490,742
per net acre $13,132,831
Site 4: Bayshore
Use: Townhouse Ownership Residential
DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM ASSUMPTIONS ASSUMPTION/FACTOR
Development Site (Square Feet)101,786
Dwelling Units 21 DU / Acre 48
Market Rate Units 41
Affordable Units 7
Gross Building Area (Square Feet)2,201 GBA / DU 105,628
Net Rentable Square Feet 78%Efficiency Factor 81,904
Market Rate NSF 69,960
Affordable NSF 11,944
Total Parking Spaces 2.1 Spaces / DU 100
Surface Parking Spaces 4%of total parking 4
Integrated Garage Parking Spaces 96%of total parking 96
BUILDING VALUE ASSUMPTION/FACTOR PER GBA TOTAL
Sale Value
Market Rate Sale Value $1,100 per SF $729 $76,955,633
Affordable Sale Value $803,112 per DU $53 $5,621,783
Overall Sale Value $782 $82,577,417
Sale Cost 5.00%of Sale Value -$39 -$4,128,871
Net Building Value $78,448,546
Supportable Development Value 15.00%Return on Cost (Unlevered)$646 $68,216,127
PROJECT DEVELOPMENT COSTS ASSUMPTION/FACTOR PER GBA TOTAL
Hard Costs
Basic Site Work $20 per SF (Site)$19 $2,035,720
Building Direct Cost $320
Total Construction Cost $280 $29,609,000
Soft Costs
Total Soft Costs 33.9%$95 $10,039,679
Other Project Costs
Total Project Cost $394 $41,631,113
Residual Land Value $26,585,014
per net acre $11,377,235
separate hard cost line item.
Site 4: Bayshore
Use: Class A Office
DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM ASSUMPTIONS ASSUMPTION/FACTOR
Net Development Site (Square Feet)101,786
FAR 0.4
Gross Building Area (Square Feet)40,700
Rentable Building Area (Square Feet)100%of GBA 40,700
Total Parking Spaces 3.5 per 1,000 SF 142
Surface Parking Spaces 100%of total parking 142
BUILDING VALUE ASSUMPTION/FACTOR PER GBA TOTAL
Gross Potential Rent $4.25 per SF/Month (NNN)$51 $2,075,700
Gross Potential Parking Income $150 per Space/Month $6 $256,410
Losses to Vacancy 5.00%of GPR -$3 -$116,606
Gross Office Revenue $54 $2,215,505
Operating Expenses 3.00%of Gross Revenue -$2 -$66,465
Net Operating Income $53 $2,149,039
Market Value 5.50%Capitalization Rate $960 $39,073,443
Development Spread 100 Basis Points -$148 -$6,011,299
Supportable Development Value 6.50%Project Yield Rate (on NOI)$812 $33,062,144
PROJECT DEVELOPMENT COSTS ASSUMPTION/FACTOR PER GBA TOTAL
Hard Costs
Basic Site Work $20 Cost/SF (Site)$50 $2,035,720
Building Direct Cost $459 Cost/SF (GBA)$459 $18,681,300
Tenant Improvement Cost $0 Cost/SF (RBA)$0 $0
Parking Direct Cost
Surface Parking Cost $5,000 per Space $18 $712,250
Total Construction Cost $527 $21,429,270
Soft Costs
Architecture and Engineering 4.0%of Construction Cost $21 $857,171
Other Soft Costs 2.0%of Construction Cost $11 $428,585
Permits and Fees 2.0%of Construction Cost $11 $428,585
Development Impact Fees $80 per SF (GBA)$80 $3,256,000
Public Art In-Lieu Fee 1.0%of Construction Cost $5 $214,293
Taxes and Insurance 2.0%of Construction Cost $11 $428,585
Financing 7.0%of Construction Cost $37 $1,500,049
Marketing/Leasing 2.0%of Construction Cost $11 $428,585
Developer Fee 4.0%of Construction Cost $21 $857,171
Total Soft Costs 39.2%of Construction Cost $206 $8,399,025
Other Project Costs
Development Contingency 5.0%of Construction & Soft Costs $37 $1,491,415
Total Project Cost $770 $31,319,710
Residual Land Value $1,742,435
per net acre $745,687
March 10, 2026 www.PaloAlto.gov
Multi-Family Development in Mixed-Use Districts
Housing Element Program 3.9(A)
Presenter:
Robert Cain,
Principal Planner
2
HOUSING ELEMENT PROGRAM 3.9
Program 3.9 directs the City to implement development
standards that:
•Incentivize greater housing production
•Temper strong market demand for commercial development
Program 3.9(A) specifically calls for:
•Amending the Municipal Code to reduce commercial floor
area allowances or other incentives at strategic locations —
shifting the economic benefit of redevelopment toward
housing
3
POLICY CONTEXT
•Palo Alto’s regional housing needs allocation (RHNA) for the
2023-2031 Housing Element cycle is historically high.
•Palo Alto currently has a high jobs/housing imbalance.
•Office values in Palo Alto are highly location specific, and, in
some locations, office consistently outcompetes housing
because it generates higher returns there.
•The City is focused on proactive solutions to better align
housing needs with job growth.
4
TEST SITES
Four distinct submarkets:
•Mayfield
•Research Park
•Downtown
•Bayshore
Feasibility Analysis:
•For each site, both a theoretical residential and
commercial project using maximum allowed
development was reviewed.
•Project value was determined for each project
using pro forma analysis.
•Consultants confirmed reasonability of general
findings through developer interviews.
5
FEASIBILITY FINDINGS
Residential development is competitive in some locations but not others:
SITE HOUSING
TYPE
RESIDENTIAL
RLV/ ACRE
OFFICE
TYPE
OFFICE
RLV/ ACRE
Site 1 – Mayfield1 Multifamily Rental -$0.6M 3-Story $3.6M
Site 2 – Research Park Townhomes $10.7M 1-Story $8.1M
Site 3 – Downtown Multifamily Rental $1.9M 1-Story $13.1M
Site 3 – Downtown
(Alternative Test)Multifamily Condo $8M +1-Story $13.1M
Site 4 – Bayshore Townhomes $11.4M 1-Story $0.7M
6
For locations where office outperforms residential development:
•Fees. Increases to development impact fees (e.g., commercial linkage fee).
•Taxes. A construction tax focused on office development projects. A tax would require voter approval.
•Building Standards. Elevated building standards for office development, including enhanced
sustainability performance, higher energy requirements, labor requirements or other obligations that
increase construction cost.
•Land Use Regulation. Changes to zoning regulations to further restrict office development
allowances, potentially limited to areas of the City where the office market is strongest, such as
Downtown, California Ave or the Research Park.
POLICY OPTIONS
7
NEXT STEPS
Staff requests that the Committee identify which policy options, if any, should be
refined and elevated for City Council consideration.
Depending on the Committee’s feedback, next steps would include:
Fees: Incorporated into the ongoing commercial linkage fee nexus study; Council
review anticipated by early 2027
Building Standards / Land Use Regulation: Staff would develop ordinance
amendments for Planning and Transportation Commission review prior to
Council consideration
Taxes: Would require further study and voter approval; timing and work effort to
be determined
ROBERT CAIN
Principal Planner
Robert.Cain@PaloAlto.gov
650-838-2892