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HomeMy WebLinkAbout2000-07-25 City CouncilCity of Palo Alto C ty Manager’s Report TO: ATTENTION: FROM: HONORABLE CITY COUNCIL FINANCE COMMITTEE CITY MANAGER DEPARTMENT: UTILITIE S DATE:JULY 17, 2000 CMR:330:00 SUBJECT:PROPOSED BUDGET AMENDMENT ORDINANCE AND RESOLUTION ADOPTING A GAS RATE INCREASE RECOMMENDATION Staffrecommends that Council: 1. Approve the attached resolution authorizing revised rate schedules to incorporate a 15 percent systemwide retail rate increase effective August 1, 2000. 2.Approve a Budget Amendment Ordinance providing an additional appropriation in the amount of $6,607,307 for Gas Fund Commodity Purchases. BACKGROUND The gas utility’s revenue requirement includes the cost to purcfiase gas, operate and maintain a reliable system, finance an appropriate capital improvement program from current operating revenues, fund prudent reserve levels and provide a transfer to the General Fund. Any change in one or more of these components or a change in sales level can trigger a need for a rate adjustment. The Gas Fund’s fiscal year 2000-01 budget was based on forecasted gas prices as of December 1999. At that time, the forecast anticipated commodity purchase costs that were similar to historical prices. In early May 2000, however, prices began an uncharacteristic rise. The resulting wholesale prices are higher than the highest historical prices since the inception of the gas futures contract at the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). Attachment A, Figure 1 shows the price of gas for rolling twelve-month periods from October 1997 through July 6, 2000. Attachment A, Figure 2 shows the projected natural gas market prices for fiscal year 2000-01. This projection was made in December 1999 and was CMR:330:00 Page 1 of 6 used to prepare the proposed 2000-01 budget for purchases cost. Also shown on Figure 2 is a projection made on June 6, 2000 which covered the same 2000-01 fiscal year. In six months, gas prices had risen approximately 57 percent higher than in December 1999, particularly escalating since April 2000. In order to shield the Palo Alto Gas Utility from further significant gas price escalations, staff began an eight-week purchasing strategy in June 2000 to lock-in wholesale gas prices. The gas purchase plan includes buying gas at fixed prices as well as purchasing gas with a price cap for FY2000-01. Several factors related to supply and demand account for the unprecedented rise in natural gas prices. The factors identified are: increased reliance on natural gas-fired power generation across the country; 2) a forecast for a worse-than-normal hurricane season that shortens supplies coming from the Gulf coast region; 3) low gas storage inventory in the East and in the producing regions that may contribute to a future gas shortage; and 4) the effect of investors transferring funds from the slumping stock market to the commodity markets. The Palo Alto Gas Utility is not the only gas utility facing the unexpected rise in prices. Many other gas utilities in the West are proposing rate increases this summer, while others are allowing the gas commodity prices to change automatically each month based on the market. This is Palo Alto’s first retail gas rate increase in six years. During that six-year period, Palo Alto actually reduced retail gas rates 12 percent in 1996 and an additional 7 percent in 1998. With regard to notification of Palo Alto consumers, in anticipation of the need to raise gas rates this year, the July 2000 utility bill insert on Palo Alto’s water rate increase also notified customers that a gas rate increase may be necessary_this summer. DISCUSSION In order to provide some rate stability to customers, Palo Alto has traditionally charged fixed gas rates that do not fluctuate on a monthly basis with the wholesale cost of gas. Instead, the utility uses its reserves to cushion the impact of sudden price changes and typically adjusts rates annually upon Council approval, with an effective date of on July 1 to coincide with the beginning of a fiscal year. In 1993, the City Council adopted a Utility Reserve Policy and established a Rate Stabilization Reserve (RSR) for each utility (CMR:263:93). In June 1999, the formula for the minimum and maximum level was further modified and separate reserves were established for the supply and distribution units of the gas and the electric funds. Minimum and maximum reserve levels for the Gas Fund were set based on anticipated normal natural gas market price and usage swings. However, the recent increase in natural gas market prices is so dramatic that the Supply RSR level is not adequate to absorb the increase in the revenue requirement. CMR:330:00 Page 2 of 6 For fiscal year 2000-01, the possibility that commodity prices could rise during the fiscal year was identified on page 10 of the Utilities Department proposed budget, and staff indicated that if a price change was substantially above or below projected commodity costs, staff may propose a rate change to Council during the year. Based on an updated market price forecast, gas purchase costs are projected to exceed the 2000-01 budget by 59 percent or approximately $6.8 million. While it is necessary to increase rates to offset this increase in wholesale gas prices, it is undesirable to impact customer bills with one dramatic rate increase. In consideration of the bill impact on customers and given the volatility of gas prices, staff recommends accommodating the unexpected rise in gas prices with one to three rate adjustments over a 12 month cycle while drawing heavily upon the Gas Fund cash reserves. Therefore, staff proposes to: ¯Enact a 15 percent retail rate increase on August 1, 2000; ¯Transfer $1.7 million from the Distribution RSR to the Supply RSR; ¯Withdraw all funds from the Supply RSR; ¯Implement approximately a 20 percent rate increase on January 1, 2001, and ¯Evaluate the need for an additional rate increase effective in FY2001-02, based on updated information related to commodity prices, sales revenues, and the need to replenish reserve levels. The Supply RSR may become depleted to zero in FY 2000-01. The ending reserve levels of the Supply and Distribution RSR’s depend on the following key factors: 1) actual 1999- 2000 year-ending balances in the Gas Fund RSR’s; 2) Council approval of a subsequent rate increase of approximately 20 percent in January; and 3) actual gas consumption (sales) levels during 2000-01. Because of these uncertainties, it is difficult to state what the ending balance will be in the RSR’s at the end ofFY2000-01. However, since the purpose of the RSR is to help stabilize rates, it is appropriate to reduce the reserve now, avoid an unacceptably high bill impact on customers, and gradually build up the reserve to its target guideline. Staff believes this approach balances the customers’ interests with the utility’s need to recover costs in a timely manner. As more information becomes known, better projections for the RSR balances at year-end will become available enabling staff to modify its proposals as necessary. If the January 1, 2001 rate increase is not enacted, the Gas Fund Supply RSR is projected to end with a negative balance of approximately $1.6 million. If a January 1, 2001 rate increase of 20 percent is approved, the combined Supply and Distribution RSR’s are expected to be depleted to near zero. Staff plans to monitor consumption, sales, costs, and reserve levels each month to establish a rate proposal for January 1, 2001 that will enable the reserves to avoid depletion by June 30, 2001. It may be noted that despite under- recovery of purchased gas costs, overall the proposed retail rates will cover all variable CMR:330:00 Page 3 of 6 costs and make a partial contribution towards recovery of fixed costs. The gas sales forecast used for FY2000/01 budget was done in December 1999. At that time, the gas consumption level for the recently completed FY 1998/99 was 40.7 million therms which indicated a much higher level than previous years. It was not clear if the higher usage in 1998-99 was reflective of a permanent trend or was a one-time anomaly due to possible weather variations and other factors. In the past 7 months, actual gas usage has not supported an annual forecast of 40.7 million therms. Rather, recent trends indicate that consumption will be 10.6 percent lower. On this basis, staffbelieves that the adopted budget sales revenue amount of $19,669,000 is overstated and a more realistic estimate is approximately $16,462,000. This represents a 16.3 percent reduction in sales revenue. On a percentage basis the revenue decline is higher than the consumption decline because of the two-tier inverted rate structure for residents. If sales are reduced, the usage primarily drops within the second tier. The second tier is priced higher than the first tier, accounting for the disproportionately higher decline in revenue. Application of 15 Percent Rate Increase The proposed rate increase will be applied to the supply portion of the total gas rate while distribution rates will remain unchanged. The rate increase will be spread equitably among customer classes based on a system average increase of approximately 15 percent. Table 1 indicates the impact of this rate proposal on a typical monthly bill for the various customer classes. Customer Residential/Winter Residential/Winter Residential/Summer Residential/Summer Small Commercial G-2 Small Commercial G-2 Large Commercial G-7 Proposed Bill Impact Usage Therms 100 150 30 40 500 10,000 30,000 TABLE 1 Proposed Monthly Bill $49.60 83.95 16.63 23.50 269.00 5,380.00 12,270.00 Amountof Increase $6.50 11.00 2.18 3.08 35.00 700.00 1,590.00 Percent Increase 15% 15 15 15 15 15 15 Even with consecutive rate increases of 15 percent and 20 percent in FY2000-01, Palo Alto’s commodity gas rates will remain below the market during this period, unless wholesale natural gas prices decline. Table 2 is a comparison between CPAU’s proposed rates and an estimate of PG&E’s comparable rates. CPAU’s market forecast was used to calculate the estimated PG&E rates. PG&E’s rates are actually a monthly pass-through of PG&E’s weighted average cost of gas and therefore reflect current market prices. On the other hand, Palo Alto’s retail commodity rates, despite the proposed increase, remain below the wholesale market price. This difference in tracking costs on a monthly basis (PG&E) or CMR:330:00 Page 4 of 6 over a longer period of time (CPAU), accounts for the principal rate differential in the table. Table 2 illustrates bills for a summer month (August) and winter month (December) because rate structures change between seasons. PG&E AND PROPOSED PALO ALTO BILL COMPARISON TABLE2 Customer Residential August 2000 December 2000 ISmall Commercial G-2 August 2000 December 2000 Medium Commercial G-2 August 2000 December 2000 Large Commercial G-7 August 2000 December 2000 Usage Palo Alto in Proposed Therms Monthly Bill 30 $16.63 100 49.60 500 269.00 500 269.00 10,000 5,380.00 10,000 5,380.00 30,000 12,270.00 30,000 12,270.00 PG&E Expected Bill $26 87 394 442 6,603 7,216 18,569 19,922 Dollar Difference [Rounded] ($10) (38) (125) (173) (1,223) (1,836) (6,299) (7,652) Percent Palo Alto Below PG&E -37% -43 -32 -39 -19 -25 -34 -38 Staff is investigating the possibility of changing the current rate structure to avoid the disparity which arises when commodity prices change dramatically (up or down). One strategy under consideration is to convert all commodity rates to a cost pass-through structure similar to PG&E, Southern California Gas Company, and the City of Long Beach. The new structure would result in varying monthly commodity rates based on CPAU’s actual cost of gas. However, converting to this pricing methodology should be gradual to avoid major bill impacts on customers and provide adequate time for businesses to plan their budgets. Finally, since this rate structure would expose customers to market volatility, fixed-price, fixed-term rates may be available to customers as well. UTILITIES ADVISORY COMMISSION REVIEW On July 5, 2000, staff presented this proposal to the Utilities Advisory Commission (UAC) as an information item. No action was requested. The UAC understood the reasons for the rate proposal. They suggested that energy efficiency and conservation program information be provided that could help customers reduce gas usage. The UAC also suggested that the residential gas rate schedule be shown on the bill insert so consumers could understand that prices escalate for increased usage. RESOURCE IMPACT The proposed 15 percent rate increase is expected to generate an additional $2.3 million on an annual basis but will appear as only a $340,000 revenue increase above the adopted budget. The reason is that the FY 2000-01 adopted budget gas sales revenue is overstated and the $340,000 amount takes into account a revised forecast for gas usage. If usage trends are CMR:330:00 Page 5 of 6 confirmed, the adopted budge~ sales revenue will be revised during the mid-year adjustment process. For informational purposes, attached is a summary of the BAOs approved to date in 2000-01 that impact the Utilities Rate Stabilization Reserves. This attachment also estimates future year ongoing costs associated with BAO’s approved to date to provide a projection for the future resource needs from the Utility Funds for those programs approved after the adoption of the 2000-01 budget. POLICY IMPLICATIONS These recommendations do not represent a change in current City policies. TIMEL’INE The proposed gas rates will be effective August 1, 2000. ENVIRONMENTAL REVIEW The adoption of the resolution does not constitute a project under the Environmental Quality Act, therefore, no environmental assessment is required. Califomia ATTACHMENTS Attachment A:Figures 1 and 2 Budget Amendment Ordinance Budget Amendment Ordinances Impacting the Utilities Rate Stabilization Reserves Approved to Date in 2000-01 Resolution Gas Rate Schedules G-l, G-2, and G-7 PREPARED BY:Karla Dailey, Resource Planner Randy Baldschun, Assistant Director of Utilities DEPARTMENT HEAD: of Utilities CITY MANAGER APPROVAE: HARRISON Assistant City Manager cc: Utilities Advisory Commission CMR:330:00 Page 6 of 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LO 0 LO 0 LO 0 ORDINANCE NO. ORDINANCE OF THE COUNCIL OF THE CITY OF PALO ALTO AMENDING THE BUDGET FOR THE FISCAL YEAR 2000-01 TO PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL APPROPRIATION OF $6,607,307 FOR GAS FUND COMMODITY PURCHASE AND TRANSMISSION COSTS. WHEREAS, pursuant to the provisions of Section 12 of Article III of the Charter of the City of Palo Alto, the Council on June 19, 2000 did adopt a budget for fiscal year 2000-01; and WHEREAS, the Gas Utility’s adopted budget for fiscal year 2000-01 is based on historically normal. gas price forecasts as of December 1999; and WHEREAS, gas prices have increased more than fifty percent since the December 1999 forecast due to several factors relating to supply and demand; and WHEREAS, an estimated $6,607,307 beyond the amount budgeted is required for gas commodity purchases; and WHEREAS, a 15 percent rate increase effective August i, 2000 will generate $2.3 million in gas sales revenue and offset a portion of increasing gas commodity costs; and WHEREAS, as a result of lower revised sales volume subsequent to adoption of the budget, anticipated revenue in gas sales must be reduced by $2.0 million;and WHEREAS, City Council authorization is needed to amend the 2000-01 budget as hereinafter set forth. NOW, THEREFORE, the Council of the City of Palo Alto does ORDAIN as follows: SECTION i. The sum of Six Million Six Hundred Seven Thousand Three Hundred Seven Dollars ($6,607,307) is hereby appropriated to commodity purchases expense in the Supply Resource Management Functional Area in the Gas Fund, and the Supply Rate Stabilization Reserve is correspondingly reduced. SECTION 2. The sum of One Million Seven Hundred Thousand Dollars ($1,700,000) is hereby transferred from the Gas Fund Distribution Rate Stabilization Reserve to the Gas Fund Supply Rate Stabilization Reserve. SECTION 3. The transactions authorized by Section 1 and 2 will reduce the Gas Fund Supply Rate Stabilization Reserve from $2,962,000 to ($1,605,307) and reduce the Gas Fund Distribution Rate Stabilization Reserve from $3,509,000 to $1,809,000 for a net balance of $203,693 in the Gas Fund. SECTION 4. Gas Fund revenues are increasing by a net of Three Hundred Forty Thousand Dollars ($340,000) as a result of this BAO. SECTION 5. As specified in Section 2.28.080(a) of the PaloAlto Municipal Code, a two-thirds vote of the City Council is required to adopt this ordinance. SECTION 6. The Council of the City of Palo Alto hereby finds that this is not a project under the California Environmental Quality Act and, .therefore, no environmental impact assessment is necessary. SECTION 7. As provided in Section 2.04.350 of the Palo Alto Municipal Code, this ordinance shall become effective upon adoption. INTRODUCED AND PASSED: AYES: NOES: ABSTENTIONS: ABSENT: ATTEST:APPROVED: City Clerk Mayor APPROVED AS TO FORM:City Manager Senior Asst. City Attorney Director of Services Administrative Director of Utilities City of Palo Alto Budget Amendment Ordinances Impacting Utilities Rate Stabilization Reserves Approved To Date in 2000-01 07/14/00 Estimated Electric Distribution Rata Stabilization Reserve RSR) Balance $5,276,000 ?oral BAOs RSR Balance After BAO’s Electric Fund Estimated Electric Supply Rata Stabilization Reserve (RSR Balance TotalBAOs RSR Balance After BAO’s Gas Fund Estimated Gas Distribution Rate Stabilization Reserve (RSR) Balance Gas Rate Increase BAO $o $o $o $o $o $o $5,276,000 $1~409,000 $o $16,409,ooo $3,509,000 ($1,7oo,ooo) Total BAOs RSR Balance After BAO’s $o $o ($1,70o,0O0) $1,809,000 ~,as Fun__d [Estimated Gas Supply Rata Stabilization Reserve (RSR) Balance Gas Rate Increase BAO $2,962,000 $o Fotal BAOs $o $o RSR Balance After BAO~s Estimated Net Gas Fund RSR Balance Estimated Refuse Rata Stabilization Reserve (RSR) Balance ($4,567,307) ($Z,605,307) $3#49,000 $0 $203,693 Total BAOs RSR Balance After BA O’s $0 $0 $0 $3,949,000 Budget Amendment Ordinances Impacting Utilities Rate Stabilization Reserves Approved To Date in 2000-01 07/14/00 Wastewater Collection Fund Estimated WWC Rate Stabilization Reserve (RSR) Balance rotal BAOs RSR Balance After BAO’s Wastewater Treatment Fund E~timated WWT Rate Stabilization Reserve (RSR) Balance $0 $0 $0 $0 $5,877,000 Total BAOs RSR Balance After BAO’s $o $o $0 $0 ; $4,001,0oo Water Fund Estimated Water Rate Stabilization Reserve (RSR) Balance total BAOs Balance After BAO’s $o $o $4,270,000 $0 $0- $4,270,000 ; Vehicle Equipment Fund Estimated Retained Earnings Retained Earnings Balance After BAO’s ($6,267,307) RESOLUTION NO. RESOLUTION OF THE COUNCIL OF THE CITY OF PALO ALTO AMENDING UTILITY RATE SCHEDULES G-l, G-2 AND G-7 OF THE CITY OF PALO ALTO UTILITIES RATES AND CHARGES PERTAINING TO GAS SERVICE The Council of the City of Palo Alto does hereby RESOLVE as follows: SECTION I.Pursuant to Section 12.20.010 of the Palo Alto Municipal Code, Schedules G-I (Residential Core Gas Service), G-2 (Commercial Core Gas Service), and G-7 (Large Commercial Core Gas Service) of the Palo Alto Utilities Rates and Charges are hereby amended to read in accordance with Sheets G-l-l, G-2-1, G-7-1, and G-7-2, respectively, attached hereto and incorpgrated herein by reference. The foregoing Utility Rate Schedules,as amended, shall become effective on August I, 2000. SECTION 2. The Council finds that the revenue derived from the authorized adjustments of the several gas service rates shall be used only for the purposes set forth in Article VII, Section 2, of the Charter of the City of Palo Alto. SECTION 3. The Council finds that the adoption of this resolution does not constitute a project under the California Environmental Quality Act, California Public Resources Code section 21080, subdivision (b) (8). INTRODUCED AND PASSED: AYES: NOES: ABSENT: ABSTENTIONS: ATTEST:AP PROVE D : City Clerk APPROVED AS TO FORM: Senior Asst. City Attorney Mayor City Manager Director of Utilities 000630 cl 0071898 Director of Administrative Services RESIDENTIAL CORE GAS SERVICE UTILITY RATE SCHEDULE G-1 A. APPLICABILITY: This schedule applies to core natural gas service to individually metered single family premises, including those separately metered in a multi-family complex. B. TERRITORY: Within the service area of the City of Palo Alto and on land owned or leased by the City. C. RATES: For individually metered residential customers Per Meter Per Month (A) Summer Rates (May 1 to October 31): 0-20 therms per therm ..............................................................................................48.8¢ Over 20 therms per therm .........................................................................................68.7¢ Winter Rates (Nov. 1 to April 30): 0-96 therms per therm ...............................................................................................48.8¢ Over 96 therms per therm .........................................................................................68.7¢ D. SPECIAL NOTES: Seasonal rate changes: The applicable residential rate structure will be prorated in the May and November billing periods based on the rates of the number of days prior to May 1 and subsequent to October 31, respectively, to the total number of days in the billing period. Service under this schedule is subject to discontinuance in whole or in part, for operational reasons or if the City experiences supply or capacity shortages. The City will exercise reasonable diligence and care to fumish and deliver continuous service and a sufficient quantity of gas to customers, but does not guarantee continuity of service or sufficiency of quantity. The City shall not be liable for any damage caused by interruption of service, if the interruption of service is caused by an act of God, Fire, Strikes, riots, war, or any other cause that is beyond the City’s control. CITY OF PALO ALTO UTILITIES Issued by the City Council Supersedes Sheet No. G-1-7 dated 7-’1-98 CITY OF PALO ALTO UTILITIES Effective 8-1-2000 Sheet No. G-l-1 COMMERCIAL CORE GAS SERVICE UTILITY RATE SCHEDULE G-2 A. APPLICABILITY: This schedule applies to non-residential core customers. Core customers include all customers using less than 250,000 therms per year at a single address. In addition, this schedule applies to customers who use more than 250,000 therms per year at a single address but elect to be core customers served under this schedule. B.TERRITORY: Within the service area of the City of Palo Alto and on land owned or leased by the City. C.RATES: All year-round delivered commodity:Per Meter Per Month Per Therm ......................................................................................................................................53.8¢ D. SPECIAL CONDITIONS: Service under this schedule is subject to discontinuance in whole or in part, for operational reasons or if the City experiences supply or capacity shortages. The City will exercise reasonable diligence and care to furnish and deliver continuous service and a sufficient quantity of gas to customers, but does not guarantee continuity of service or sufficiency of quantity. The City shall not be liable for any damage caused by interruption of service, if the interruption of servic~ is caused by an act of God, Fire, Strikes, riots, war, or any other cause that is beyond the City’s control. {End} CITY OF PALO ALTO UTILITIES Issued by the City Council Supersedes Sheet No. G-2-1 dated 7-1-98 CITY OF PALO ALTO UTILITIES Effective 8-1-2000 Sheet No. G-2-1 LARGE COMMERCIAL CORE GAS SERVICE UTILITY RATE SCHEDULE G-7 A. APPLICABILITY: This schedule applies to service for large commercial customers who use at least 250,000 therms per year at one site. B. TERRITORY: Within the service area of the City of Palo Alto and on land owned or leased by the City. C. RATES:Cents Per Therm Commodity Charge ......................................................i ..........................................................30.4¢ Administrative Fee ...................................................................................................................0.4¢ Transportation Charges: PG&E Local Transportation .............................................................................................1.6¢ Palo Alto Local Distribution ................................................................, ............................8.5¢ D. SPECIAL CONDITION: o o Service under this schedule is subject to discontinuance in whole or in part, for operational reasons or if the City experiences supply or capacity shortages. The City will exercise reasonable diligence and care to furnish and deliver continuous service and a sufficient quantity of gas to customers, but does not guarantee continuity of service or sufficiency of quantity. The City shall not be liable for any damage caused by interruption of service, if the interruption of service is caused by an act of God, Fire, Strikes, riots, war, or any other cause that is beyond the City’s control. A customer who elects to be served under this rate will pay an administrative fee equal to the allocable administrative costs incurred by the City in providing the gas service. PG&E Local transportation charge is equal to the cost of transporting gas from the PG&E’s City Gate to the Palo Alto City Gate. The total monthly charge = therms used during the month X (commodity charge + administrative fee + PG&E local transportation charge + Palo Alto local distribution charge). 5. A customer may request service under this schedule for more than one account or meter if the CITY OF PALO ALTO UTILITIES Issued by the City Council Supersedes Sheet No. G-7-1 dated 7-1-98 CITY OF PALO ALTO UTILITIES Effective 8-1-2000 Sheet No. G-7-1 accounts are located on one site. A site shall be defined as one or more utility accounts serving contiguous parcels of land with no intervening public right-of- ways (e.g. streets) and have a common billing address. Customers may request a rate schedule change at any time, but only once during a twelve-month period if the change is between City of Palo Alto full-service rate schedules. The 12 months limitation does’not apply if a customer elects a Gas Direct Access rate schedule and is served by another Gas Service Provider, or if a customer elects schedule G-8. Qualified customers may elect Gas Direct Access at any time. {End} CITY OF PALO ALTO UTILITIES Issued by the City Council Supersedes Sheet No. G-7-1 dated 7-1-98 CITY OF PALO ALTO UTILITIES Effective 8-1-2000 Sheet No. G-7-2