HomeMy WebLinkAbout2001-10-02 City Council (3)City of Palo Alto
City Manager’s Report
TO:HONORABLE CITY COUNCIL
ATTN:POLICY AND SERVICES COMMITTEE
FROM:CITY MANAGER DEPARTMENT: PLANNING
DATE:OCTOBER 2, 2001 CMR:353:01
SUBJECT:APPROVAL OF SCOPE OF SERVICE FOR CONSULTANT
CONTRACT WITH TJKM IN THE AMOUNT OF $74,809 FOR
PROVISION OF A CITYWIDE TRAVEL DEMAND MODEL
(RFP#136950)
RECOMMENDATION
Staff recommends that the Policy and Services Committee recommend that Council
approve the attached scope of services and authorize the Mayor to execute a consultant
contract with TJKM in the amount of $74,809 for provision of a City of Palo Alto
citywide travel demand model.
The traffic model update is a highly technical project on a tight nine-month timeframe.
Sufficient work must be completed by spring to provide traffic network projects as part of
a Council-directed first Annual Report on Transportation Conditions and Trends in Palo
Alto. The additional time required for Council committee review of the Scope of Work
and return back to full Council would effectively remove this forecasting tool from staff’s
toolkit in preparing the annual transportation report.
BACKGROUND
The City of Palo Alto’s existing computer traffic demand simulation/projection model
was created in 1995. In the past six years there have been a number of changes that
require major improvements in the Palo Alto travel model database and capabilities.
Development and redevelopment within the City and surrounding communities has had a
significant impact on Palo Alto travel patterns. The 1998-2010 Comprehensive Plan
placed great emphasis on reducing solo occupant motor vehicle use through development
of alternative transport modes. The Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC)
and the Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority (VTA) are in the process of
substantially upgrading their regional travel models to provide the capability of
forecasting transit and bicycle travel, as well as personal motor vehicle demand. The
Transportation Division was directed to prepare an annual report on conditions and trends
CMR:353:01 Page 1 of 3
This contract was not included in the list of those reviewed by the Policy and Services
and Finance Committees in July and August 2001 because the Transportation Division
hopes to bring the new Palo Alto travel demand model on line in time to provide travel
demand projections for presentation to the Planning and Transportation Division and
Council as part of the first annual report on transportation conditions and trends. Staff
therefore requests that Council authorize an expedited approval for the travel demand
model scope of work bypassing the normal Council committee review process.
DISCUSSION
The work to be performed under the contract is for substantial update and upgrade of
Palo Alto’s computer traffic demand model. Work tasks are: updating land use and
socioeconomic information as well as any relevant changes in the street network;
adjusting model parameters to adequately simulate year 2001 and project future (to the
year 2025) trip generation and distribution; and developing a modal choice (solo
occupant, auto, rideshare, transit or cycling) forecasting capability for Palo Alto’s travel
demand model. All of these elements are to be congruent with parameters, assumptions,
and capabilities of MTC and VTA regional travel demand models.
Staff sent a request for proposals to 49 engineering consulting firms in June 2001. Firms
were given 28 days to respond to the request. A total of three firms submitted proposals.
Proposals ranged from $74,809 to $85,000. [It should be noted that one responding firm
estimated the project in two phases: basic ($75,000) and enhanced ($225,000). Only the
basic phase is included in the above cost range.] Those firms not responding indicated
that they did not submit a proposal because of limited availability of key staff.
A selection advisory committee consisting of staff from the Transportation Division and
Public Works Department reviewed the proposals. All three firms were invited to
participate in oral interviews on August 28. The committee carefully reviewed each
firm’s qualifications and submittal in response to the RFP relative to the following
criteria: 1) experience in computer demand model update and upgrade; 2) familiarity with
MTC and VTA regional travel demand models; 3) experience in modeling transit and
bicycle travel demand; and 4) familiarity with Palo Alto transportation facilities and
services. TJKM was selected because they demonstrated greater technical sophistication
and were the most responsive of the three firms in addressing project requirements.
RESOURCE IMPACT
Council has approved a budget allocation of $75,000 for this project.
POLICY IMPLICATIONS
The travel demand model update and upgrade project will contribute to Council’s
directive to Transportation staff to prepare an annual report on existing conditions and
CMR:353:01 Page 2 of 3
trends in Palo Alto’s transportation system. The model will also support accurate
evaluation of the traffic impacts of proposals for significant land development and
redevelopment; identify opportunities for new or improved transit routes and cycling
facilities serving Palo Alto; and inform transportation and land use decision-making in
Palo Alto though provision of answers to questions pertaining to the impact of changes in
with land use of transportation facilities.
ENVIRONMENTAL REVIEW
This is not a project under the California Environmental Quality Act and is exempt from
CEQA review.
ATTACHMENTS
Attachment A: Scope of Services
PREPARED BY:
(/’J~eph I~ott
"Chief Transportation Official
CITY MANAGER APPROVAL:
Fra~l~ )3enest
City Manager
CMR:353:01 Page 3 of 3
ATTACHMENT A
III. SCOPE OF SERVICES
TJKM will provide an updated, and carefully calibrated travel forecasting model
for the City of Palo Alto along with easy to use menus and routines for continued
use of the model over time. Additionally, we believe our work can lead to a cost-
effective, annual update of the model in conjunction with certain modeling and
other activities of the VTA. The Congestion Management Agency land use
monitoring coupled with the Congestion Management System monitoring should
b~ useful tools in updating land use and network data beyond city boundaries.
Within the city, of course, land use can be more precisely updated, and the city’s
new centralized signal system (e.g., Naztec, icons, or Eagle) can (and should) be
designed to update traffic volume data on the network. The land use and volume
data are needed for checking the calibration of the model.
TJK_M will perform the following tasks within a budget of $75,000 within nine
months, depending on the availability bf data to be specified in the following
Task 1: System Analysis
Obiective
TJKM will perform an in-depth system analysis of all issues regarding the model
development, determine the model specification and the data requirement and
provide a feasible implementation design.
Approach
TJKM staff has performed similar analyses for various organizations and has
developed a unique method for the analysis.
Subtask 1.1. Modeling region. With a basic investigation of current data and
surveys, TJKM will determine the modeling region, the entire extent of the land
use and network files used in the modeling process. This region could encompass
the MTC nine-county area (at a simplified scale) or could use the same modeling
region as the VTA model.
Subtask 1.2. Data availability. TJKM will determine specific data to be used in
computations, which may. include the local model data (network and land use
data), volumes (including turn counts), travel time and distance distribution, GIS
data, reports and local road and transit maps.
Subtask 1.3. Model structure and specification. Based on the discussion with the
City and other information, TJKM will determine the zonal structure, model
structure and specification with a computational flow chart. The zonal structure
will be consistent with the latest TAZ structure recently submitted to the Census
Bureau under the CTPP 2000/TAZ Verify Program. As discussed in the last
Proposal to Palo Alto City’de Travel Demand Modal
77K~ Transportation Consultants
J
section, the final modeling network includes all the zones as detailed as the local
models with a set of ensembles of the City zones.
Subtask 1.4. Development of naming convention of the files and variables.
TJKM will use the naming convention in the implementation of the model. This
will ensure accurate coordination of the various independent work products and
the continuation ..of the process.
Subtask 1.5. Future year selection and criteria. TJKM will analyze the future year
selection based on the future year selection by VTA and MTC (and the City’s
requirement). Generally, TJKM recommends using the same future year as VTA,
which is consistent with MTC and ABAG.
Subtask 1.6. Develop work plan and schedule. After consultation with the City,
refine proposed work plan and project schedule.
Data Requirement
1. Model data of the City and the VTA.
Deliverables
1. Technical memo ~
2. One meeting with the City for the model specification
Task 2: Develop Model Networks
Obiective
This taskis to develop the city model network based on the VTA regional model
network including the road network and transit lines.
Approach
Subtask 2.1. Network conflation. T3KM will combine the VTA network and the
city model network based on the most recent TIGER files, or city GIS files as a
base map.
Subtask 2.2. Network refinement. TJKM will refine the modeling network with
network moving, snapping, link and line editing, and especially, densification of
traffic analysis zones for city applications of the model. In this case, TJK_M will
use Viper to perform this task. All major existing intersections should be correctly
represented.
Subtask 2.3. Transit network development. TJKM will use the TIGER file as a
background to develop the transit lines with Viper, which is a translation of the
VTA, Caltrain and ACE transit lines.
Subtask 2.4. Data verification. T3K.M will verify both auto and transit network
attribute development and verification for speed, distance, lanes, capacity, area
type, volumes, volume delay function, class, transit line frequency, line speed,
boarding and alighting permitted at the bus stop, etc.
Subtask 2.5. GIS map preparation. TJKM will create.the modeling network and
transit line maps in Viper.
Proposal to Palo Alto Citywide Travel Demand Model
TJK~ Transportation Consultants
Deliverables
1.TP+!Viper files with the auto network and transit lines
2.Auto network and transit lines in ArcView shape file format
3.An integrated tramportafion information system in GIS
Task 3: Model Development
Obiective
TJKM will develop an integrated transportation model in TP+/Viper with an
optional ArcView user interface based on the model specification.
Approach
Subtask 3.1. Traffic analysis zone (TAZ) data update. The VTA TAZ data are
presumed to be current and up to date. However, TJKM shall also allocate the
VTA TAZ data to the smaller TAZ in the City model using City-provided land
use data.
Subtask 3.2. Trip generation. TJKM will determine the trip rates based on the
ITE rate for the city area together with the VTA model trip rates.
Subtask 3.3. Utility components such as travel time, travel distance and transit
time, etc. TJKM will determine the utility functions with parameters.
Subtask 3.4. Trip distribution models by region (special generators), purpose,
period and class.
Subtask 3.5. Nested logit mode choice models by region, purpose, period and
class. TJKM will determine the parameters for the nested logit models based on
demand modeling experience, VTA parameters and Quick Response Transferable
Parameters.
Subtask 3.6. Traffic assignments and transit assignments. TJKM will also
determine the parameters for the assignments based on the current VTA model.
Subtask 3.7. Model implementation. TJKM will develop the TP+ scripts to form
a complete model.
Subtask 3.8. Model integration with ArcView. T~VI will work to develop a
customized GIS interface.
Subtask 3.9. Test runs and procedure verifications.
Data Requirement
None
Deliverables
1. Technical memo on the model integration with GIS
Task 4: Model Calibration and Validation
Objective
TJKM will use the standard model calibration and validation procedures such as
the Caltrans Forecast Guidelines, NCHR_P Reports # 255, #365 and NARC
Proposal to Palo _Alto Citywide Travel Demand Model
TJKM Tran~ortation ConsMtants
I
Regional Modeling Guideline, which describes the use of the RSME measure.
The baseline year can be either 2000 or 2001 depending on the traffic count
availability. However the parameters and calibration matrices of year 2000 will be
used to the future demand forecasting.
Approach
Subtask 4.1. Traffic count database development in the modeling network that
includes both the link and turning movement volumes of the base year by AM and
PM.
Subtask 4.2. Model validation individually for trip generation, trip distribution,
mode choice and assignments, and then with all together. The travel length and
time distributions from the model will be reviewed as compared with that from
the survey, which should be close enough in terms of the matrix histograms by
purposes and classes and modes.
Subtask 4.3. OD estimations in auto and transit. The obtained OD demand
matrices by mode such as the auto and transit will be revised to reflect local road
and line counts with the OD estimation technique. This method has been widely
used with a great success. .~
Subtask 4.4. Result comparisons in matrix histogram and link scattergram with
the RMSE approach. The calibration results will be presented and reviewed with
the City in several iterations. Examples are provided in the last section. The
required results specified in RFP will be provided.
Data Requirement
i. Traffic counts in 2000
Deliverables
1. Technical.memo for the calibration results
Task 5: Future Demand Forecasting
Obiective
TJKM .will use the parameters and 2000 calibration matrices (both auto and
transit) to the future demand forecasting for future years.
Approach
Subtask 5.1. Development of future year socioeconomic and land use data. These
data mainly come from the City, VTA, MTC and ABAG.
Subtask 5.2. Future year capital improvements and assumptions, which will be
reflected in the modeling network.
Subtask 5.3. Future year travel forecasts. The results will be reported by year,
mode and purpose.
Subtask 5.4. Future accepted forecasted information plots by link volumes,
turning movement volumes and demands by AM and PM.
Proposal to Palo Alto Citywide Travel Demand Modal
TJKM Tranaportation Consultants
Page 18
tidy 9, 2001
Subtask 5.5. Conduct LOS analysis and computation for freeway and arterial
links and signalized intersections with the 2000 Highway Capacity Manual. The
soi~ware can be Traffix, HiCAP 2000 or others.
Data Requirement
1. Future land use and network data
Deliverables
1. Technical memorandum.
Task 6: Model and GIS Integration
Obiective
TJKM will prepare a prototype GIS integration for the City model in a GIS
environment as discussed in the last section, which will serve as a base for any
further development.
Approach
Subtask 6.1. TJKM will organize all the data and model results in an ArcView
project.
Subtask 6.2. TJKM will develop a customized user interface in ArcView that can
start the execution of TP+/Viper macros and query and produce certain standard
reports including tables and traffic flows.
Subtask 6.2. TJKM will discuss possible improvements in the GIS interface with
the City, and will modify the interface as necessary.
Data Requirement
None.
Deliverables
1. An ArcView Project file with menus
Task 7: Documentation
Obiecn’ve
TJKM will prepare a full documentation for the model specification and final
results of the mode! calibration including the user manual. Also included will be
annual model update and validation procedures that draw upon readily-available
data and macros within the model implementation.
Approach
Subtask 7.1. TJKM will prepare a preliminary outline of the report for review by
the City.
Proposal to Palo Alto Cit’ywide Travel Demand Model
TJ-KM Tran~ortation Consultants
Subtask 7.2. TJY~/I will write the report including the model specification, data
input (link attributes, node attributes, OD ma~ces), GIS maps, model calibration
and validation results in a standard format. A user manual is provided to illustrate
how the model can be used, updated and re-validated.
Data Requirement
None
Deliverables
2. Full report and a user manual
3. TP+/¥iper model in the terms of scripts and the ArcView project file.
Task 8: Technical Meetings and Training
Objective
TJKM will meet with the City up to seven times and provide four hours training
on the use of the model and presentation of the final results. TJK.M strongly
recommends that City staff take a training course from UAG in the use of
TP+/Viper.
Proposal to Palo A!to Citywide Travel Demand Modal
T]KM Tran4portation Consultants
]
]
]
IV. PROJECT MANAGEMENT
TJKM will apply Ned-and-true, innovative project management techniques to
assure that this project remains on schedule and within budget.
To effectively manage this project, we propose to use the following tools being
used in TJKM:
Bi-weekly assignment checklists throughout the life of the project to ensure the
project remains on schedule by proper staffing assignments for all TJKM
staff. MS Project will be used for this purpose.
Monthly budget review to ensure no budget overruns occur. TJKM’s
customized accounting system will enable the project manager to track the
expenditures to date each Monda~ morning, and ensure budget compliance of
TJKM.
Monthly progress reports to accompany each invoice, for review with the
client project manager. TJKM will document work performed to date in these
status reports.
Regular meetings with the City, to discuss progress, issues, and to receive
guidance.
Dr. Jia Hao Wu, Senior Associate and TJKM’s Director of ITS, will lead the
project and perform much of the work. He successfully managed the
implementation for the SCAG regional model, and also GIS, and TP+ model
update for SJCOG. These efforts are recent, occurring in 1999 and 2000. He also
is responsible for all the modeling tasks for the majority of TJKM’s current traffic
studies.
Mr. Gary Kruger, Principal Associate, will be serve as principle-in-charge of this
project. He will be responsible for the quality control and the documentation
review in addition to his contribution to the model development of the project.
TJ-KM team participants are presented.in the section THE TJKM TEAM. The
responsibilities of each participant of TJKM are given in Figure 12.,
Proposa! to Palo Alto Cityvdde Travd Demand Modal
~ Transportation Consultants
Page 21
July 9, 2001
IV. PROJECT MANAGEMENT
TJKM will apply tried-and-true, innovative project management techniques to
assure that this project remains on schedule and within budget.
To effectively manage this project, we propose to use the following tools being
used in TJ’KM:
Bi-weekly assignment checklists throughout the life of the project to ensure the
project remains on schedule by proper statYmg assignments for all TYKM
staff. MS Project will be used for this purpose.
Monthly budget review to ensure no budget overruns occur. TJKM’s
customized accounting system will enable the project manager to track the
expenditures to date each Monda~ morning, and ensure budget compliance of
TJKM.
Monthly progress reports to accompany each invoice, for review with the
client project manager. TJKM will document work performed to date in these
status reports.
Regular meetings with the City, to discuss progress, issues, and to receive
guidance.
Dr. Jia Hao Wu, Senior Associate and TJKM’s Director of ITS, will lead the
project and perform much of the work. He successfully managed the
implementation for the SCAG regional model, and also GIS, and TP+ model
update for SJCOG. These efforts are recent, occurring in 1999 and 2000. He also
is responsible for all the modeling tasks for the majority of TJKM’s current traffic
studies.
Mr. Gary Kruger, Principal Associate, will be serve as principle-in-charge of this
project. He will be responsible for the quality control and the documentation
review in addition to his contribution to the model development of the project.
TJKM team participants are presented in the section THE TYKM TEAM. The
responsibilities of each participant of TJKM are given in Figure 12.
Proposal to Palo Alto Citywide Travd Demand Modal
77KM Tran~porta#on Consultants
.]
]
]
IV. PROJECT MANAGEMENT
TJKM will apply tried-and-true, innovative project management techniques to
assure that this project remains on schedule and within budget.
To effectively manage this project, we propose to use the following tools being
used in TJKM:
l
]
Bi-weekly assignment checklists throughout the life of the project to ensure the
project remains on schedule by proper staffing assignments for all TJKM
staff. MS Project will be used for this purpose.
Monthly budget review to ensure no budget overruns occur. TJKM’s
customized accounting system will enable the project manager to track the
expenditures to date each Monda~ morning, and ensure budget compliance of
TJKM.
Monthly progress reports to accompany each invoice, for review with the
client project manager. TJKM will document work performed to date in these
status reports.
Regular meetings with the City, to discuss progress, issues, and to receive
guidance.
Dr. Jia Hao Wu, Senior Associate and TJKM’s Director of ITS, will lead the
project and perform much of the work. He successfully managed the
implementation for the SCAG regional model, and also GIS, and TP+ model
update for SJCOG. These efforts are recent, occurring in 1999 and 2000. He also
is responsible for all the modeling tasks for the majority of TJKM’s current traffic
studies.
Mr. Gary Kruger, Principal Associate, will be serve as principle-in-charge of this
project. He will be responsible for the quality control and the documentation
review in addition to his contribution to the model development of the project.
TJKM team participants are presented in the section THE TJKM TEAM. The
responsibilities of each participant of TJKM are given in Figure 12.
Proposal to Palo Alto Citywide Travd Demand Modal
Tj-K~ Transportation Consultants
V.SCHEDULE AND BUDGET
TJKM Team will finish this project within one year for Phase One for a total of
$75,000. All the work will be performed within the not-to-exceed total.
Our schedule is shown in Figure 10. We feel the schedule is very reasonable, and
we are comfortable with it. The milestones of the project are listed here:
Milestone one:
Milestone two:
Milestone three:
Milestone four:
end of Task 1
mid of Task 3
end of Task 4
end of Task 8
The distribution of budget, person hours and task hours of TJKM Team by person
and by company is listed in Figure 11.
FIGURE 10 SCHEDULE FOR THE PROJECT
Milestone R = RepoWMemorandum
Proposal to Palo Alto Citywide Travd Demand Modal
TJKM Tranqoortation Consultants