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HomeMy WebLinkAboutStaff Report 3010 City of Palo Alto (ID # 3010) City Council Informational Report Report Type: Informational Report Meeting Date: 7/23/2012 July 23, 2012 Page 1 of 2 (ID # 3010) Title: Final Retiree Medical Actuarial Report Subject: Final Retiree Medical Actuarial Report From: City Manager Lead Department: Administrative Services This report and the attachment are provided to Council as an informational update on the retiree medical actuarial study. No further Council action is required. Executive Summary On April 16 Council approved changes to the retiree medical actuarial study (report 2655). Staff informed Council that the changes would be incorporated into the retiree medical actuarial study and a new study would be issued by Bartel and Associates. The attached report includes the changes approved by Council and is considered the final retiree medical actuarial study for the City for the period up to June 30, 2014. The actuarial accrued liability for retiree medical stands at $168 million and the City has assets valued at $45 million making for an unfunded actuarial accrued liability of $123 million. The City’s annual required contribution is $12.5 million. These amounts were expected based on the changes Council approved in April. Staff is continuing efforts to have employees share in the costs of retiree medical across all labor groups. Attachments:  Attachment A: Final Retiree Medical Report Valuation 6/30/11 (PDF)  Attachment B: CMR #2655 (PDF) July 23, 2012 Page 2 of 2 (ID # 3010) Prepared By: David Ramberg, Assistant Director Department Head: Lalo Perez, Chief Financial Officer City Manager Approval: James Keene, City Manager CITY OF PALO ALTO RETIREE HEALTHCARE PLAN January 1, 2011 and June 30, 2011 GASB 45 Actuarial Valuations Final Results Presented by John E. Bartel, President Prepared by Deanna Van Valer, Assistant Vice President & Actuary Adam Zimmerer, Actuarial Analyst Bartel Associates, LLC May 23, 2012 Contents O:\Clients\City of Palo Alto\OPEB\2011 val\Reports\BA PaloAltoCi 12-05-23 OPEB 1-1-11 6-30-11 Final Results.docx Topic Page Benefit Summary 1 Participant Statistics 5 Actuarial Assumptions Highlights 9 Actuarial Methods 15 Assets 17 Results – January 1, 2011 Valuation 19 Results – June 30, 2011 Valuation 27 Actuarial Valuation Certification 36 Exhibits 37 May 23, 2012 1 BENEFIT SUMMARY  Eligibility  Retire directly from the City under CalPERS (age 50 and 5 years of CalPERS service or disability)  Medical Provider  CalPERS health plans (PEMHCA)  Non-Safety PEMHCA resolution provides only for PEMHCA minimum (additional benefits paid by City)  Retiree Medical (Hired<1/1/041)  Retired < 1/1/072  Full employee premium and percentage of dependent premium (90% in 2011, 95% in 2012, 100% in 2013+)  Retired > 1/1/072  Same as above but premium limited to 2nd most expensive Basic medical plan in the Bay Area Region  IAFF retired > 12/1/11 receive 90% of calculated amount  For non-Safety – Mgmt/Conf, SEIU and UMPAPA Retired > 4/1/113, all premium increases starting 1/1/11 shared evenly between City and employee, up to 10% 1 1/1/05 for SEIU and 1/1/06 for PAPOA 2 1/1/08 for PAPOA 3 2/1/10 for SEIU May 23, 2012 2 BENEFIT SUMMARY  Retiree Medical (Hired>1/1/044)  Vesting schedule (based on all CalPERS Service)5: Years of Service % < 10 0% 10 50% ↓ ↓ > 20 100%  Vesting applies to 100/90 formula amounts6: 2011 2012 Single $ 542 $ 566 2-Party 1,030 1,074 Family 1,326 1,382  Police and Fire with 20 years City service – do not need to retire directly from City  For Mgmt/Conf, UMPAPA Retired > 4/1/11, SEIU Retired > 2/1/10, all premium increases starting in 1/1/11 shared evenly between City and employee, up to 10% 4 1/1/05 for SEIU and 1/1/06 for PAPOA 5 Minimum 5 years City Service. 100% vested for disability retirement 6 For IAFF, vesting applies to greater of 100/90 formula amounts or same benefit as those hired < 1/1/04 May 23, 2012 3 BENEFIT SUMMARY  Dental, Vision & Life  None  Surviving Spouse Benefit  100% of retiree benefit continues to surviving spouse if retiree elects CalPERS survivor allowance  Benefit Changes from Prior Valuation  New Benefit Provision: cost sharing of future premium increases for Mgmt/Conf, SEIU and UMPAPA retiring after 4/1/2011  Pay-As-You- Go ($000s)  FY 2011/12 (Est) $8,142  FY 2010/11 $6,216  FY 2009/10 $5,519  FY 2008/09 $5,204  FY 2007/08 $4,646 May 23, 2012 4 BENEFIT SUMMARY  Implied Subsidy  Non-Medicare eligible retirees pay active rates instead of actual cost  Active employee premiums subsidize retiree cost  GASB 45 includes active “implied subsidy” with retiree cost  Community rated plans not required to value implied subsidy  PEMHCA is a community rated plan for most employers  Valuation does not include an implied subsidy Single Retiree Medical Cost 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 Age Mo n t h l y C o s t PremiumMale CostFemale Cost May 23, 2012 5 PARTICIPANT STATISTICS Participant Statistics June 30, 2011 7 1 retiree with missing birth date assumed to retire at average retirement age 8 Excludes 3 retirees with missing retirement date Miscellaneous Police Fire Total  Actives  Count 737 82 104 923  Average Age 45.7 38.2 43.4 44.7  Average City Service 10.4 10.8 14.0 10.8  Average PERS Service 13.8 11.4 15.0 13.7  Average Salary $78,762 $117,924 $112,185 $86,007  Total Salary (000’s) $58,047 $9,670 $11,667 $79,384  Retirees:  Count 659 87 114 860  Average Age7 67.5 63.0 67.2 67.0  Average Retirement Age8 57.2 47.9 52.1 55.5 May 23, 2012 6 PARTICIPANT STATISTICS Participant Statistics9 January 1, 2009 9 From 1/1/09 Milliman report Miscellaneous Police Fire Total  Actives  Count n/a n/a n/a 955  Average Age n/a n/a n/a 45.3  Average City Service n/a n/a n/a 11.2  Average Salary n/a n/a n/a $103,602  Total Salary (000’s) n/a n/a n/a $98,940  Retirees:  Count n/a n/a n/a 710  Average Age n/a n/a n/a 67.2  Average Retirement Age n/a n/a n/a n/a May 23, 2012 7 PARTICIPANT STATISTICS Medical Plan Participation Non-Waived Participants Retirees Medical Plan Actives < 65 ≥ 65 Total Blue Shield 44% 34% 21% 27% Blue Shield NetValue 0% 0% 0% 0% Kaiser 34% 25% 24% 25% PERS Choice 13% 21% 18% 19% PERSCare 0% 11% 36% 25% PORAC 9% 10% 1% 5% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% May 23, 2012 8 PARTICIPANT STATISTICS This page intentionally blank May 23, 2012 9 ACTUARIAL ASSUMPTIONS HIGHLIGHTS January 1, 2009 Valuation10 January 1, 2011 & June 30, 2011 Valuations  Valuation Date  January 1, 2009  Fiscal Years 2009/10 & 2010/11 ARCs (beginning of year)  January 1, 2011  Fiscal Year 2011/12 ARC (end of year)  June 30, 2011  Fiscal Years 2012/13 & 2013/14 ARCs (end of year)  Funding Policy  Full Pre-funding through CalPERS trust (CERBT)  Same. Asset allocation #1 beginning 6/30/2011.  Discount Rate  7.75%  1/1/11 – 7.75%  6/30/11 – 7.61% (no Margin for Adverse Deviation)  Payroll Increases  Aggregate Increases – 3.25%  Merit Increases – CalPERS 1997-2002 Experience Study  Aggregate Increases – 3.25%  Merit Increases – CalPERS 1997-2007 Experience Study 10 From 1/1/09 Milliman report May 23, 2012 10 ACTUARIAL ASSUMPTIONS HIGHLIGHTS January 1, 2009 Valuation10 January 1, 2011 & June 30, 2011 Valuations  Medical Trend Increase from Prior Year Year 2009 Premiums 2010 6.50% 2011 6.50% 2012 6.50% 2013 6.50% 2014 6.50% 2015 6.00% 2016 6.00% 2017 6.00% 2018+ 5.85% Increase from Prior Year Year Non-Medicare Medicare 2009 n/a 2010 n/a 2011 Premiums 2012 Premiums 2013 9.0% 9.4% 2014 8.5% 8.9% 2015 8.0% 8.3% 2016 7.5% 7.8% ↓ ↓ 2021+ 5.0% 5.0%  Actuarial Load for Additional Future PPO Increases  n/a  None11 11 Because CalPERS has increased PPO premiums less than claims costs have increased, the City should expect premiums will likely increase more rapidly than other typical medical cost increases. May 23, 2012 11 ACTUARIAL ASSUMPTIONS HIGHLIGHTS January 1, 2009 Valuation10 January 1, 2011 & June 30, 2011 Valuations  Retirement, Mortality, Termination, Disability  CalPERS 1997-2002 Experience Study Misc Fire Police Benefit 2.7%@55 3%@50 3%@50  CalPERS 1997-2007 Experience Study Misc Fire Police Benefit 2.7%@55 3%@50 3%@50 2%@6012 ERA 57.5 54.5 54.0  Participation at Retirement  n/a  DOH < 1/1/04: 100%  DOH > 1/1/04: 95%  Employees with cost sharing: reduce above %’s by 5% 12 Applies to employees hired after July 17, 2010 May 23, 2012 12 ACTUARIAL ASSUMPTIONS HIGHLIGHTS January 1, 2009 Valuation10 January 1, 2011 & June 30, 2011 Valuations  Medical Plan at Retirement  n/a  Miscellaneous: <65 65+ Blue Shield 35% 20% Kaiser 25% 25% PERS Choice 30% 20% PERSCare 10% 35%  Safety: <65 65+ Blue Shield 35% 20% Kaiser 25% 25% PERS Choice 20% 20% PERSCare 10% 35% PORAC 10% 0% May 23, 2012 13 ACTUARIAL ASSUMPTIONS HIGHLIGHTS January 1, 2009 Valuation10 January 1, 2011 & June 30, 2011 Valuations  Medicare Eligible Rate  n/a  Actives hired < 4/1/86:  Miscellaneous – 80%  Safety – 90%  Actives hired > 4/1/86: 100%  Retirees < 65: 90%  Everyone eligible for Medicare will elect Part B coverage  Missing PERS Group  n/a  Retirees missing PERS group assumed to be Misc unless fund designates Police or Fire May 23, 2012 14 ACTUARIAL ASSUMPTIONS HIGHLIGHTS This page intentionally blank May 23, 2012 15 ACTUARIAL METHODS Method January 1, 2009 Valuation13 January 1, 2011 & June 30, 2011 Valuations  Cost Method  Entry Age Normal Level % of Pay  Same  Unfunded Liability Amortization  30 years open period  Same14  Actuarial Value of Assets  Market Value of Assets  Same15 13 From 1/1/09 report by Milliman. 14 30-year open amortization period meets GASB 45 accounting standards but results in negative amortization and does not meet a funding policy consistent with paying off the City’s unfunded liability. 15 Using Market Value of Assets to determine the ARC will result in more volatile future ARCs than if a smoothed Market Value were used. May 23, 2012 16 ACTUARIAL METHODS Method January 1, 2009 Valuation13 January 1, 2011 & June 30, 2011 Valuations  Implied Subsidy  Employer cost for allowing retirees to participate at active rates  Community rated plans are not required to value an implied subsidy if active rates are independent of number of retirees  PEMHCA is a community rated plan for most employers  Valuation does not include an implied subsidy May 23, 2012 17 ASSETS Market Value of Plan Assets – CERBT (Amounts in 000’s) 2009 2010 1/1/11- 6/30/11 Projected 2011/12  MVA (Beg. of Year) $ 24,616 $ 32,042 $ 40,213 $ 44,774  Contributions 700 3,532 2,448 4,150  Benefit Payments16 - - - -  Admin. Expenses (23) (34) (41) -  Investment Return 6,749 4,674 2,155 3,40717  MVA (End of Year) 32,042 40,213 44,774 52,331  Approx. Annual Return 26.9% 13.7% 5.3% 7.6% 16 Benefit Payments made outside of trust by City. Refer to Slide 3 for fiscal year amounts. 17 Investment return based on 7.61% net of expenses May 23, 2012 18 ASSETS This page intentionally blank May 23, 2012 19 RESULTS – JANUARY 1, 2011 VALUATION Funded Status – 7.75% Discount Rate (Amounts in 000’s) 1/1/0918 1/1/11 Projected 6/30/11  Present Value of Benefits  Actives $ 78,831 $ 82,476  Retirees 78,384 116,471  Total 157,215 198,947  Actuarial Accrued Liability  Actives 51,277 49,189  Retirees 78,384 116,471  Total 129,661 165,660 $ 169,930  Actuarial Value of Assets (AVA) 24,616 40,213 44,774  Unfunded AAL 105,045 125,447 125,156  Funded Ratio 19% 24% 26%  Normal Cost 3,478 4,782  Pay-As-You-Go Cost 6,075 8,434 18 From 1/1/09 report by Milliman. May 23, 2012 20 RESULTS – JANUARY 1, 2011 VALUATION Actuarial Gain/Loss – 7.75% Discount Rate (Amounts in 000’s) AAL (AVA) UAAL  Actual 1/1/09 $129,661 $(24,616) $105,045  Expected 6/30/11 150,971 (42,322) 108,649  Assumption Changes  Medical Trend 4,840 4,840  New CalPERS Decrements 7,916 7,916  Medical Plan at Retirement 7,740 7,740  Medicare Eligibility 2,625 2,625  Contribution Loss (2,452) (2,452)  Plan Change – Cost Sharing (14,194) (14,194)  Plan Change – IAFF (1,069) (1,069)  Experience (Gains)/Losses  Caps/Premiums < Expected (3,917) (3,917)  New Retirees 2,700 2,700  Demographic & Other 12,318 - 12,318  Total (Gain)/Loss 18,959 (2,452) 16,507  Projected 6/30/11 169,930 (44,774) 125,156 May 23, 2012 21 RESULTS – JANUARY 1, 2011 VALUATION Annual Required Contribution (ARC) – 7.75% Discount Rate (Amounts in 000’s) 1/1/09 Valuation 1/1/11 Valuation Annual Required Contribution 2009/1019 2010/1120 2011/1221  ARC - $  Normal Cost $ 3,478 $ 3,591 $ 4,782  UAAL Amortization 6,308 6,404 7,802  Total 9,786 9,995 12,584  Projected Payroll 98,940 102,156 80,664  ARC - % Pay  Normal Cost 3.5% 3.5% 5.9%  UAAL Amortization 6.4% 6.3% 9.7%  Total 9.9% 9.8% 15.6% 19 Beginning of year payment, as shown in Milliman report. 20 Beginning of year payment. 21 End of year payment. May 23, 2012 22 RESULTS – JANUARY 1, 2011 VALUATION Estimated Net OPEB Obligation (NOO) Illustration – 7.75% Discount Rate (Amounts in 000’s) Estimated Net OPEB Obligation (Asset) CAFR 2009/10 CAFR 2010/11 Estimate 2011/12  NOO at Beginning of Year $(26,352) $(23,242) $(23,006)  Annual OPEB Cost  Annual Required Contribution 9,786 9,786 12,584  Interest on NOO (2,042) (1,801) (1,783)  NOO Adjustment 2,585 2,280 1,434  Annual OPEB Cost 10,329 10,265 12,235  Contributions  Benefit Payments Outside Trust22 5,519 8,197 8,433  Trust Funding 1,70023 1,83224 6,598  Total Contributions 7,219 10,029 15,032  NOO at End of Year (23,242) (23,006) (25,802) 22 Estimated cash payments shown for fiscal year 2011/12. Actual cash payments should be used for OPEB footnote. 23 Shortly after year end, the City contributed another $1.832 million to the Trust. 24 Shortly after year end, the City contributed an additional $2.448 million to the Trust. May 23, 2012 23 RESULTS – JANUARY 1, 2011 VALUATION Amortization Bases & Payments – 7.75% Discount Rate (000’s Omitted) 1/1/2009 Valuation 1/1/2011 Valuation 6/30/2009 6/30/2010 6/30/2011  UAAL Balance25 $ 109,040 $ 110,693 125,156  30-Year Rolling Amortization Payment26 - $ 6,308 6,404 7,802 25 January 1, 2009 UAAL from Milliman report adjusted with interest to June 30, 2009. 26 Milliman results are beginning of year payments. Beginning with the 2011/12 payment, all results shown are adjusted with interest to the end of the year. May 23, 2012 24 RESULTS – JANUARY 1, 2011 VALUATION Actuarial Obligations – 7.75% Discount Rate January 1, 2011 (Amounts in 000’s) Benefits < Age 65 Benefits > Age 65 Total  Present Value of Benefits  Actives $ 43,859 $ 38,617 $ 82,476  Retirees 36,840 79,631 116,471  Total 80,699 118,248 198,947  Actuarial Accrued Liability  Actives 25,053 24,136 49,189  Retirees 36,840 79,631 116,471  Total 61,893 103,767 165,660  Normal Cost 2,626 2,156 4,782 May 23, 2012 25 RESULTS – JANUARY 1, 2011 VALUATION Actuarial Obligations – 7.75% Discount Rate January 1, 2011 (Amounts in 000’s) Misc Police Fire Total  Present Value of Benefits  Actives $ 53,652 $ 12,581 $ 16,243 $ 82,476  Retirees 84,420 14,434 17,617 116,471  Total 138,072 27,015 33,860 198,947  Actuarial Accrued Liability  Actives 32,553 6,369 10,267 49,189  Retirees 84,420 14,434 17,617 116,471  Total 116,973 20,803 27,884 165,660  Actuarial Value of Assets27 28,394 5,050 6,769 40,213  Unfunded AAL 88,579 15,753 21,115 125,447  Normal Cost 2011/12 3,314 705 763 4,782  Pay-As-You-Go Cost 2011/12 6,285 935 1,214 8,434 27 Allocated in proportion to the Actuarial Accrued Liability. May 23, 2012 26 RESULTS – JANUARY 1, 2011 VALUATION Annual Required Contribution (ARC) – 7.75% Discount Rate 2011/12 Fiscal Year (Amounts in 000’s) Misc Police Fire Total  ARC - $  Normal Cost $ 3,314 $ 705 $ 763 $ 4,782  UAAL Amortization28 5,500 985 1,317 7,802  ARC 8,814 1,690 2,080 12,584  Projected Payroll 58,983 9,826 11,855 80,664  ARC - %  Normal Cost 5.6% 7.2% 6.4% 5.9%  UAAL Amortization 9.3% 10.0% 11.1% 9.7%  ARC 14.9% 17.2% 17.5% 15.6% 28 Allocated in proportion to the Actuarial Accrued Liability. May 23, 2012 27 RESULTS – JUNE 30, 2011 VALUATION Actuarial Obligations (Amounts in 000’s) 1/1/11 Valuation 6/30/11 Valuation 1/1/11 Projected 6/30/11 6/30/11 Projected 6/30/12 7.75% 7.61%  Present Value of Benefits  Actives $ 82,476 $ 87,186  Retirees 116,471 115,644  Total 198,947 202,830  Actuarial Accrued Liability  Actives 49,189 52,409  Retirees 116,471 115,644  Total 165,660 $ 169,930 168,053 $ 177,304  Actuarial Value of Assets 40,213 44,774 44,774 52,331  Unfunded AAL 125,447 125,156 123,279 124,973  Funded Ratio 24% 26% 27% 30%  Normal Cost 4,782 5,091  Pay-As-You-Go Cost 8,434 8,944 May 23, 2012 28 RESULTS – JUNE 30, 2011 VALUATION Actuarial Gain/Loss (000’s Omitted) AAL (AVA) UAAL  Actual 1/1/11 $165,660 $(40,213) $125,447  Projected 6/30/11 169,930 (44,774) 125,156  Expected 6/30/12 179,127 (52,331) 126,796  Assumption Changes  Discount Rate 2,816 2,816  Experience (Gains)/Losses  Demographic & Other (4,639) - (4,639)  Total (Gain)/Loss (1,823) - (1,823)  Projected 6/30/12 177,304 (52,331) 124,793 May 23, 2012 29 RESULTS – JUNE 30, 2011 VALUATION Annual Required Contribution (ARC) (Amounts in 000’s) 1/1/11 Valuation 6/30/11 Valuation 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 Annual Required Contribution 7.75% 7.61%  ARC - $  Normal Cost $ 4,782 $ 5,091 $ 5,256  UAAL Amortization 7,802 7,665 7,779  Total 12,584 12,756 13,035  Projected Payroll 80,664 83,285 85,992  ARC - %Pay  Normal Cost 5.9% 6.1% 6.1%  UAAL Amortization 9.7% 9.2% 9.1%  Total 15.6% 15.3% 15.2% May 23, 2012 30 RESULTS – JUNE 30, 2011 VALUATION Amortization Bases & Payments (000’s Omitted) 1/1/2011 Valuation 6/30/2011 Valuation 6/30/2011 6/30/2012 6/30/2013 7.75% 7.61%  UAAL Balance $ 125,156 $ 124,973 $ 126,819  30-Year Rolling Amortization Payment - $ 7,802 7,665 7,778 May 23, 2012 31 RESULTS – JUNE 30, 2011 VALUATION Estimated Net OPEB Obligation (NOO) Illustration (Amounts in 000’s) Estimated Net OPEB Obligation (Asset) 1/1/11 Valuation 6/30/11 Valuation Estimate 2011/12 Estimate 2012/13 Estimate 2013/14  NOO at Beginning of Year $ (23,006) $(25,802) $(26,184)  Annual OPEB Cost  Annual Required Contribution 12,584 12,756 13,035  Interest on NOO (1,783) (1,964) (1,993)  NOO Adjustment 1,434 1,583 1,606  Annual OPEB Cost 12,235 12,375 12,648  Contributions  Benefit Payments Outside Trust29 8,434 8,944 9,893  Trust Funding 6,598 3,812 3,142  Total Contributions 15,032 12,756 13,035  NOO at End of Year (25,802) (26,184) (26,570) 29 Estimated cash payments shown for all years. Actual cash payments should be used for OPEB footnote. May 23, 2012 32 RESULTS – JUNE 30, 2011 VALUATION Estimated Full ARC Funding Projection – 7.61% Discount Rate30 (Amounts in 000’s) Fiscal Year End Begin Year NOO ARC Annual OPEB Cost (AOC) Contribution Pay Contrib % of Payroll Benefit Pmts Pre- Funding Total Contrib 2012 $(23,006) $12,584 $12,235 $8,434 $6,598 $15,032 $80,664 18.6% 2013 (25,803) 12,756 12,375 8,944 3,812 12,756 83,285 15.3% 2014 (26,184) 13,035 12,648 9,893 3,142 13,035 85,992 15.2% 2015 (26,570) 13,320 12,928 10,777 2,543 13,320 88,787 15.0% 2016 (26,962) 13,613 13,215 11,725 1,888 13,613 91,672 14.8% 2017 (27,361) 13,914 13,510 12,642 1,272 13,914 94,652 14.7% 2018 (27,765) 14,222 13,812 13,505 717 14,222 97,728 14.6% 2019 (28,175) 14,538 14,122 14,333 205 14,538 100,904 14.4% 2020 (28,591) 14,862 14,440 15,141 (279) 14,862 104,183 14.3% 2021 (29,013) 15,194 14,766 15,875 (681) 15,194 107,569 14.1% 30 Fiscal year ending 2012 based on prior valuation with 7.75% discount rate. May 23, 2012 33 RESULTS – JUNE 30, 2011 VALUATION Actuarial Obligations – 7.61% Discount Rate June 30, 2011 (Amounts in 000’s) Benefits < Age 65 Benefits > Age 65 Total  Present Value of Benefits  Actives $ 45,615 $ 41,571 $ 87,186  Retirees 34,723 80,921 115,644  Total 80,338 122,492 202,830  Actuarial Accrued Liability  Actives 26,212 26,197 52,409  Retirees 34,723 80,921 115,644  Total 60,935 107,118 168,053  Normal Cost 2,761 2,330 5,091 May 23, 2012 34 RESULTS – JUNE 30, 2011 VALUATION Actuarial Obligations – 7.61% Discount Rate June 30, 2011 (Amounts in 000’s) Misc Police Fire Total  Present Value of Benefits  Actives $ 56,775 $ 13,391 $ 17,020 $ 87,186  Retirees 83,714 14,346 17,584 115,644  Total 140,489 27,737 34,604 202,830  Actuarial Accrued Liability  Actives 34,733 6,869 10,807 52,409  Retirees 83,714 14,346 17,584 115,644  Total 118,447 21,215 28,391 168,053  Actuarial Value of Assets31 31,558 5,652 7,564 44,774  Unfunded AAL 86,889 15,563 20,827 123,279  Normal Cost 2012/13 3,528 750 813 5,091  Pay-As-You-Go Cost 2012/13 6,624 1,018 1,302 8,944 31 Allocated in proportion to the Actuarial Accrued Liability. May 23, 2012 35 RESULTS – JUNE 30, 2011 VALUATION Annual Required Contribution (ARC) – 7.61% Discount Rate 2012/13 Fiscal Year (Amounts in 000’s) Misc Police Fire Total  ARC - $  Normal Cost $ 3,528 $ 750 $ 813 $ 5,091  UAAL Amortization32 5,386 977 1,302 7,665  ARC 8,914 1,727 2,115 12,756  Projected Payroll 60,900 10,145 12,240 83,285  ARC - %  Normal Cost 5.8% 7.4% 6.7% 6.1%  UAAL Amortization 8.8% 9.6% 10.6% 9.2%  ARC 14.6% 17.0% 17.3% 15.3% 32 Allocated in proportion to the Actuarial Accrued Liability. May 23, 2012 36 ACTUARIAL VALUATION CERTIFICATION This report presents the City of Palo Alto Retiree Healthcare Plan (“Plan”) January 1, 2011 and June 30, 2011 actuarial valuations. The purpose of these valuations is to:  Determine the Governmental Accounting Standards Board Statement Nos. 43 and 45 January 1, 2011 and June 30, 2011 Benefit Obligations,  Determine the Plan’s January 1, 2011 and June 30, 2011 Funded Status, and  Calculate the 2011/12, 2012/13 and 2013/14 Annual Required Contributions. The report provides information intended for reporting under GASB 43 and 45, but may not be appropriate for other purposes. Information provided in this report may be useful to the City for the Plan’s financial management. Future valuations may differ significantly if the Plan’s experience differs from our assumptions or if there are changes in Plan design, actuarial methods or actuarial assumptions. The project scope did not include an analysis of this potential variation. The valuation is based on Plan provisions, participant data, and asset information provided by the City as summarized in this report, which we relied on and did not audit. We reviewed the participant data for reasonableness. To the best of our knowledge, this report is complete and accurate and has been conducted using generally accepted actuarial principals and practices. Additionally, in our opinion, actuarial methods and assumptions comply with GASB 43 and 45. As members of the American Academy of Actuaries meeting the Academy Qualification Standards, we certify the actuarial results and opinions herein. Respectfully submitted, John E. Bartel, ASA, MAAA, FCA President, Bartel Associates, LLC May 23, 2012 Deanna Van Valer, ASA, EA, MAAA, FCA Assistant Vice President, Bartel Associates, LLC May 23, 2012 May 23, 2012 37 EXHIBITS Topic Page Premiums E- 1 Data Summary E- 3 Actuarial Assumptions E-29 Results by Fund E-37 Results by GF Department E-41 Definitions E-45 May 23, 2012 38 EXHIBITS This page intentionally blank May 23, 2012 E-1 PREMIUMS 2011 PEMHCA Monthly Premiums Bay Area Non-Medicare Eligible Medicare Eligible Medical Plan Single 2-Party Family Single 2-Party Family Blue Shield $675.51 $1,351.02 $1,756.33 $337.88 $675.76 $1,013.64 Blue Shield NetValue 581.24 1,162.48 1,511.22 337.88 675.76 1,013.64 Kaiser 568.99 1,137.98 1,479.37 282.30 564.60 846.90 PERS Choice 563.40 1,126.80 1,464.84 375.88 751.76 1,127.64 PERS Select 492.68 985.36 1,280.97 375.88 751.76 1,127.64 PERSCare 893.95 1,787.90 2,324.27 433.66 867.32 1,300.98 PORAC 527.00 987.00 1,254.00 418.00 833.00 1,331.00 May 23, 2012 E-2 PREMIUMS 2012 PEMHCA Monthly Premiums Bay Area Non-Medicare Eligible Medicare Eligible Medical Plan Single 2-Party Family Single 2-Party Family Blue Shield Access+ $711.10 $1,422.20 $1,848.86 $337.99 $675.98 $1,013.97 Blue Shield NetValue 611.59 1,223.18 1,590.13 337.99 675.98 1,013.97 Kaiser 610.44 1,220.88 1,587.14 277.81 555.62 833.43 PERS Choice 574.15 1,148.30 1,492.79 383.44 766.88 1,150.32 PERS Select 487.39 974.78 1,267.21 383.44 766.88 1,150.32 PERSCare 1,029.23 2,058.46 2,676.00 432.43 864.86 1,297.29 PORAC 556.00 1,041.00 1,323.00 418.00 833.00 1,331.00 May 23, 2012 E-3 DATA SUMMARY Active Medical Coverage Bay Area Plans Medical Plan Single 2-Party Family Waived Total Blue Shield 90 68 210 - 368 Blue Shield NetValue 2 1 1 - 4 Kaiser 74 65 151 - 290 PERS Choice 22 39 47 - 108 PERSCare - - 1 - 1 PORAC 12 7 54 - 73 Waived - - - 79 79 Total 200 180 464 79 923 May 23, 2012 E-4 DATA SUMMARY Retiree Medical Coverage - Under Age 65 Plan Region Single 2-Party Family Total Blue Shield Bay Area 48 42 25 115 Los Angeles 1 - - 1 Northern CA - 1 1 2 Sacramento 4 3 1 8 Southern CA - 1 - 1 Kaiser Bay Area 37 26 11 74 Northern CA 2 1 3 6 Out of State - 5 1 6 Sacramento 3 3 - 6 Southern CA 2 1 1 4 PERS Choice Bay Area 22 19 7 48 Northern CA 3 2 - 5 Out of State 7 13 2 22 Sacramento 1 - - 1 Southern CA 2 - - 2 PERSCare Bay Area 11 5 2 18 Northern CA 1 2 - 3 Out of State 13 2 - 15 Sacramento 2 - 1 3 Southern CA 1 - - 1 PORAC 10 14 12 36 Total 170 140 67 377 May 23, 2012 E-5 DATA SUMMARY Retiree Medical Coverage - Over Age 65 Plan Region Single 2-Party Family Total Blue Shield Bay Area 53 40 2 95 Northern CA - 2 - 2 Sacramento 1 - - 1 Southern CA 2 3 - 5 Blue Shield NetValue Southern CA 1 - - 1 Kaiser Bay Area 44 42 6 92 Northern CA 2 2 - 4 Out of State 4 3 - 7 Sacramento 6 6 1 13 Southern CA 1 - - 1 PERS Choice Bay Area 14 21 - 35 Los Angeles 1 - - 1 Northern CA 3 5 1 9 Out of State 12 17 2 31 Sacramento 1 3 - 4 Southern CA 4 1 - 5 PERSCare Bay Area 47 34 - 81 Northern CA 9 7 - 16 Out of State 41 19 2 62 Sacramento 3 4 - 7 Southern CA 5 3 - 8 PORAC 1 1 1 3 Total 255 213 15 483 May 23, 2012 E-6 DATA SUMMARY Medical Plan Participation Non-Waived Participants Retirees Medical Plan Actives < 65 ≥ 65 Total Blue Shield 44% 34% 21% 27% Blue Shield NetValue 0% 0% 0% 0% Kaiser 34% 25% 24% 25% PERS Choice 13% 21% 18% 19% PERSCare 0% 11% 36% 25% PORAC 9% 10% 1% 5% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% May 23, 2012 E-7 DATA SUMMARY Retiree Medical Coverage by Age Group Miscellaneous Age Single 2-Party Family Total Under 50 2 - 2 4 50-54 20 17 8 45 55-59 55 38 17 110 60-64 61 62 14 137 65-69 58 68 5 131 70-74 55 41 1 97 75-79 32 23 - 55 80-84 24 15 1 40 Over 85 28 12 - 40 Total 335 276 48 659 Average Age 68.7 67.4 59.5 67.5 May 23, 2012 E-8 DATA SUMMARY Retiree Age Distribution Miscellaneous 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 <50 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 ≥85 Age Nu m b e r May 23, 2012 E-9 DATA SUMMARY Retiree Medical Coverage by Age Group Police Age Single 2-Party Family Total Under 50 5 3 1 9 50-54 6 3 4 13 55-59 8 5 4 17 60-64 8 6 2 16 65-69 6 3 1 10 70-74 5 1 - 6 75-79 4 2 - 6 80-84 4 4 - 8 Over 85 2 - - 2 Total 48 27 12 87 Average Age 64.8 62.7 56.5 63.0 May 23, 2012 E-10 DATA SUMMARY Retiree Age Distribution Police 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 <50 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 ≥85 Age Nu m b e r May 23, 2012 E-11 DATA SUMMARY Retiree Medical Coverage by Age Group Fire Age Single 2-Party Family Total Under 50 1 1 3 5 50-54 1 2 10 13 55-59 5 2 4 11 60-64 7 8 3 18 65-69 4 8 2 14 70-74 11 16 - 27 75-79 5 8 - 13 80-84 4 4 - 8 Over 85 4 1 - 5 Total 42 50 22 114 Average Age 70.6 69.8 55.0 67.2 May 23, 2012 E-12 DATA SUMMARY Retiree Age Distribution Fire 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 <50 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 ≥85 Age Nu m b e r May 23, 2012 E-13 DATA SUMMARY Actives by Age and Service Miscellaneous City Service Age < 1 1-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 ≥ 25 Total < 25 1 2 1 - - - - 4 25-29 9 22 11 2 - - - 44 30-34 7 39 23 16 4 - - 89 35-39 6 25 25 23 3 - - 82 40-44 3 24 21 31 14 3 - 96 45-49 4 31 17 46 34 23 5 160 50-54 7 20 23 31 23 15 14 133 55-59 1 13 11 25 11 10 4 75 60-64 - 8 4 13 8 7 - 40 ≥ 65 - - 2 3 4 1 4 14 Total 38 184 138 190 101 59 27 737 May 23, 2012 E-14 DATA SUMMARY This page intentionally blank May 23, 2012 E-15 DATA SUMMARY Active Age Distribution Miscellaneous 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 <25 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-65 ≥65 Age Nu m b e r May 23, 2012 E-16 DATA SUMMARY Active Service Distribution Miscellaneous 0 50 100 150 200 250 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 >25 Service Nu m b e r May 23, 2012 E-17 DATA SUMMARY Actives by Age and Service Police City Service Age < 1 1-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 ≥ 25 Total < 25 - 2 - - - - - 2 25-29 1 6 2 - - - - 9 30-34 1 10 9 1 - - - 21 35-39 - 3 6 7 2 1 - 19 40-44 - - 3 1 4 1 - 9 45-49 - - 1 2 6 4 4 17 50-54 - 1 1 1 - 1 1 5 55-59 - - - - - - - - 60-64 - - - - - - - - ≥ 65 - - - - - - - - Total 2 22 22 12 12 7 5 82 May 23, 2012 E-18 DATA SUMMARY This page intentionally blank May 23, 2012 E-19 DATA SUMMARY Active Age Distribution Police 0 5 10 15 20 25 <25 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-65 ≥65 Age Nu m b e r May 23, 2012 E-20 DATA SUMMARY Active Service Distribution Police 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 >25 Service Nu m b e r May 23, 2012 E-21 DATA SUMMARY Actives by Age and Service Fire City Service Age < 1 1-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 ≥ 25 Total < 25 1 2 - - - - - 3 25-29 - 3 2 - - - - 5 30-34 2 3 4 - - - - 9 35-39 - 4 4 10 1 - - 19 40-44 - - 4 9 3 1 - 17 45-49 - 1 4 7 6 13 2 33 50-54 - - - 2 - 5 7 14 55-59 - - - 1 - - 1 2 60-64 - - - - - 1 1 2 ≥ 65 - - - - - - - - Total 3 13 18 29 10 20 11 104 May 23, 2012 E-22 DATA SUMMARY This page intentionally blank May 23, 2012 E-23 DATA SUMMARY Active Age Distribution Fire 0 5 10 15 20 25 <25 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-65 ≥65 Age Nu m b e r May 23, 2012 E-24 DATA SUMMARY Active Service Distribution Fire 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 >25 Service Nu m b e r May 23, 2012 E-25 DATA SUMMARY Actives by Age and Service Total City Service Age < 1 1-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 ≥ 25 Total < 25 2 6 1 - - - - 9 25-29 10 31 15 2 - - - 58 30-34 10 52 36 17 4 - - 119 35-39 6 32 35 40 6 1 - 120 40-44 3 24 28 41 21 5 - 122 45-49 4 32 22 55 46 40 11 210 50-54 7 21 24 34 23 21 22 152 55-59 1 13 11 26 11 10 5 77 60-64 - 8 4 13 8 8 1 42 ≥ 65 - - 2 3 4 1 4 14 Total 43 219 178 231 123 86 43 923 May 23, 2012 E-26 DATA SUMMARY This page intentionally blank May 23, 2012 E-27 DATA SUMMARY Active Age Distribution Total 0 50 100 150 200 250 <25 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-65 ≥65 Age Nu m b e r May 23, 2012 E-28 DATA SUMMARY Active Service Distribution Total 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 >25 Service Nu m b e r May 23, 2012 E-29 ACTUARIAL ASSUMPTIONS January 1, 2009 Valuation33 January 1, 2011 & June 30, 2011 Valuations  Valuation Date  January 1, 2009  Fiscal Years 2009/10 & 2010/11 ARCs (beginning of year)  January 1, 2011  Fiscal Year 2011/12 ARC (end of year)  June 30, 2011  Fiscal Years 2012/13 & 2013/14 ARCs (end of year)  Funding Policy  Full Pre-funding through CalPERS trust (CERBT)  Same. Asset allocation #1 beginning 6/30/2011.  General Inflation  3.00%  Same  Discount Rate  7.75%  1/1/11 – 7.75%  6/30/11 – 7.61% (no Margin for Adverse Deviation) 33 From 1/1/09 Milliman report May 23, 2012 E-30 ACTUARIAL ASSUMPTIONS January 1, 2009 Valuation33 January 1, 2011 & June 30, 2011 Valuations  Payroll Increases  Aggregate Increases – 3.25%  Merit Increases – CalPERS 1997-2002 Experience Study  Aggregate Increases – 3.25%  Merit Increases – CalPERS 1997-2007 Experience Study  Medical Trend Increase from Prior Year Year 2009 Premiums 2010 6.50% 2011 6.50% 2012 6.50% 2013 6.50% 2014 6.50% 2015 6.00% 2016 6.00% 2017 6.00% 2018+ 5.85% Increase from Prior Year Year Non-Medicare Medicare 2009 n/a 2010 n/a 2011 Premiums 2012 Premiums 2013 9.0% 9.4% 2014 8.5% 8.9% 2015 8.0% 8.3% 2016 7.5% 7.8% 2017 7.0% 7.2% 2018 6.5% 6.7% 2019 6.0% 6.1% 2020 5.5% 5.6% 2021+ 5.0% 5.0% May 23, 2012 E-31 ACTUARIAL ASSUMPTIONS January 1, 2009 Valuation33 January 1, 2011 & June 30, 2011 Valuations  Actuarial Load for Additional Future PPO Increases  n/a  None34  Mortality, Termination, Disability  CalPERS 1997-2002 Experience Study  CalPERS 1997-2007 Experience Study  Retirement  CalPERS 1997-2002 Experience Study Misc Fire Police Benefit 2.7%@55 3%@50 3%@50  CalPERS 1997-2007 Experience Study Misc Fire Police Benefit 2.7%@55 3%@50 3%@50 2%@6035 ERA 57.5 54.5 54.0 34 Because CalPERS has increased PPO premiums less than claims costs have increased, the City should expect premiums will likely increase more rapidly than other typical medical cost increases. 35 Applies to employees hired after July 17, 2010 May 23, 2012 E-32 ACTUARIAL ASSUMPTIONS January 1, 2009 Valuation33 January 1, 2011 & June 30, 2011 Valuations  Participation at Retirement  n/a  Hired < 1/1/04: 100%  Hired > 1/1/04: 95%  Employees with cost sharing: reduce above %’s by 5% May 23, 2012 E-33 ACTUARIAL ASSUMPTIONS January 1, 2009 Valuation33 January 1, 2011 & June 30, 2011 Valuations  Medical Plan at Retirement  n/a  Miscellaneous: <65 65+ Blue Shield 35% 20% Kaiser 25% 25% PERS Choice 30% 20% PERSCare 10% 35%  Safety: <65 65+ Blue Shield 35% 20% Kaiser 25% 25% PERS Choice 20% 20% PERSCare 10% 35% PORAC 10% 0% May 23, 2012 E-34 ACTUARIAL ASSUMPTIONS January 1, 2009 Valuation33 January 1, 2011 & June 30, 2011 Valuations  Medicare Eligible Rate  n/a  Actives hired < 4/1/86:  Miscellaneous – 80%  Safety – 90%  Actives hired > 4/1/86: 100%  Retirees < 65: 90%  Everyone eligible for Medicare will elect Part B coverage  Spousal Coverage at Retirement  Actives: 60%  Retirees: based on current elections  Currently covered: based on current elections  Currently waived: 80%  Family Coverage at Retirement  Actives: 18% until age 65  Retirees: based on current elections until age 65  Actives  Misc : 10% until age 65  Safety : 20% until age 65  Retirees: based on current elections until age 65 May 23, 2012 E-35 ACTUARIAL ASSUMPTIONS January 1, 2009 Valuation33 January 1, 2011 & June 30, 2011 Valuations  Missing PERS Group  n/a  Retirees missing PERS group assumed to be Misc unless fund designates Police or Fire  Missing Bargaining Unit  n/a  Retirees missing bargaining unit assumed to be SEIU unless fund designates Police (PAPOA) or Fire (IAFF)  Missing Department  n/a  Retirees missing department assumed to be 80% GF, 10% Elec, and 10% WWT  Missing Fund  n/a  People assumed to be 80% GF from above assumption placed in “Unknown” Fund  Surviving Spouse Participation  n/a  100% May 23, 2012 E-36 ACTUARIAL ASSUMPTIONS January 1, 2009 Valuation33 January 1, 2011 & June 30, 2011 Valuations  Spouse Age  Actives – Males 3 years older than females  Retirees – Males 3 years older than females if spouse birth date not available  Same  Future New Participants  None – Closed Group  Same May 23, 2012 E-37 RESULTS BY FUND Actuarial Accrued Liability (AAL) (Amounts in 000’s) January 1, 2009 January 1, 2011 June 30, 2011 7.75% 7.75% 7.61%  CIP $ 1,564 $ 2,362 $ 2,411  Elec36,37 13,214 16,004 16,216  Gas36 4,589 6,106 6,254  GF38 91,488 115,628 116,987  ISF - Technology 2,226 2,038 2,111  ISF - Vehicle 1,225 1,383 1,422  Refuse 3,063 4,835 4,939  Storm Drain 494 1,448 1,468  Water36 4,673 5,087 5,200  WWC36 2,013 2,062 2,165  WWT 5,112 8,707 8,879  Total 129,661 165,660 168,053 36 AAL for UTL employees allocated to Elec, Gas, Water, and WWC in proportion to each Fund’s AAL 37 Assets for Fiber Optics Fund appropriated to Elec due to no Fiber Optics employees in data 38 Assets for Printing & Mailing Fund appropriated to GF due to no Printing & Mailing employees in data May 23, 2012 E-38 RESULTS BY FUND Annual Required Contribution (ARC) (Amounts in 000’s) 1/1/09 Valuation 1/1/11 Valuation 6/30/11 Valuation 2009/10 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 7.75% 7.75% 7.61%  CIP $ 142 $ 207 $ 214 $ 219  Elec36,Error! Bookmark not defined. 953 1,064 1,082 1,106  Gas36 344 443 450 460  GF38 6,825 8,798 8,896 9,084  ISF - Technology 214 214 218 224  ISF - Vehicle 95 117 116 119  Refuse 245 374 376 385  Storm Drain 36 104 106 108  Water36 386 396 409 419  WWC36 169 186 196 201  WWT 377 681 691 707  Total 9,786 12,584 12,754 13,033 May 23, 2012 E-39 RESULTS BY FUND Unfunded Actuarial Accrued Liability (UAAL) (Amounts in 000’s) January 1, 2011 June 30, 2011 7.75% 7.61%  CIP $ 1,796 $ 1,808  Elec39,40 10,464 10,200  Gas39 3,950 3,878  GF41 91,718 90,149  ISF - Technology 1,106 1,059  ISF - Vehicle 749 726  Refuse 3,437 3,400  Storm Drain 1,161 1,145  Water39 3,466 3,399  WWC39 1,263 1,270  WWT 6,338 6,243  Total 125,448 123,277 39 UAAL for UTL employees allocated to Elec, Gas, Water, and WWC in proportion to each Fund’s UAAL 40 Assets for Fiber Optics Fund appropriated to Elec due to no Fiber Optics employees in data 41 Assets for Printing & Mailing Fund appropriated to GF due to no Printing & Mailing employees in data May 23, 2012 E-40 RESULTS BY FUND This page intentionally blank May 23, 2012 E-41 RESULTS BY GF DEPARTMENT Actuarial Accrued Liability (AAL) (Amounts in 000’s) January 1, 2009 January 1, 2011 June 30, 2011 7.75% 7.75% 7.61%  ASD $ 5,932 $ 9,051 $ 9,003  ATT 1,303 1,879 1,899  AUD 116 137 143  CLK 1,036 841 849  COU 885 1,787 1,802  CSD 10,182 12,403 12,529  FIR 24,576 31,517 32,030  HRD 2,087 3,066 3,057  LIB 3,026 4,020 4,061  MGR 1,330 1,801 1,829  PLA 4,653 6,826 6,916  PLN - 241 242  POL 24,243 30,928 31,396  PWD 11,849 11,131 11,231  Total 91,218 115,628 116,987 May 23, 2012 E-42 RESULTS BY GF DEPARTMENT Annual Required Contribution (ARC) (Amounts in 000’s) 1/1/09 Val 1/1/11 Val 6/30/11 Valuation 2009/10 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 7.75% 7.75% 7.61%  ASD $ 490 $ 585 $ 585 $ 597  ATT 104 141 148 151  AUD 15 13 13 13  CLK 70 77 78 80  COU 45 141 133 136  CSD 821 891 890 908  FIR 1,729 2,342 2,374 2,423  HRD 143 206 202 205  LIB 308 446 458 469  MGR 86 143 146 149  PLA 402 543 546 559  PLN - 11 11 11  POL 1,761 2,441 2,490 2,544  PWD 824 818 822 839  Total 6,798 8,798 8,896 9,084 May 23, 2012 E-43 RESULTS BY GF DEPARTMENT Unfunded Actuarial Accrued Liability (UAAL) (Amounts in 000’s) January 1, 2011 June 30, 2011 7.75% 7.61%  ASD $ 7,180 $ 6,938  ATT 1,490 1,463  AUD 109 111  CLK 667 655  COU 1,417 1,389  CSD 9,838 9,654  FIR 25,000 24,682  HRD 2,433 2,356  LIB 3,189 3,129  MGR 1,428 1,410  PLA 5,414 5,329  PLN 191 186  POL 24,533 24,194  PWD 8,829 8,654  Total 91,717 90,150 May 23, 2012 E-44 RESULTS BY GF DEPARTMENT This page intentionally blank May 23, 2012 E-45 DEFINITIONS  GASB 45 Accrual Accounting  Project future employer-provided benefit cash flows for current active employees and current retirees  Discount projected cash flow to valuation date using discount rate (assumed return on assets used to pay benefits) and other actuarial assumptions to determine present value of projected future benefits (PVB)  Allocate PVB to past, current, and future periods using the actuarial cost method  Actuarial cost method used for this valuation is the Entry Age Normal Cost method which determines Normal Cost as a level percentage of payroll (same method used by CalPERS)  Normal Cost is amount allocated to current fiscal year  Actuarial Accrued Liability (AAL) is amount allocated to prior service with employer  Unfunded AAL (UAAL) is AAL less plan assets pre-funded in a segregated and restricted trust  PayGo Cost  Cash subsidy is the pay-as-you-go employer benefit payments for retirees  Implied subsidy is the difference between the actual cost of retiree benefits and retiree premiums subsidized by active employee premiums May 23, 2012 E-46 DEFINITIONS Present Value of Benefits Present Value of Benefits (With Plan Assets) Unfunded Actuarial Accrued Future Normal Costs Normal Cost Assets Present Value of Benefits (Without Plan Assets) Unfunded Actuarial Accrued Liability Future Normal Costs Normal Cost May 23, 2012 E-47 DEFINITIONS  Annual Required Contribution (ARC)  “Required contribution” for the current period including:  Normal Cost  Amortization of: - Initial UAAL - AAL for plan, assumption, and method changes - Experience gains/losses (difference between expected and actual) - Contribution gains/losses (difference between ARC and contributions)  ARC in excess of pay-as-you-go costs not required to be funded  Net OPEB Obligation (NOO)  Net OPEB Obligation is the accumulated amounts expensed but not funded  Net OPEB Asset if amounts funded exceed those expensed  Annual OPEB Cost (AOC)  Expense for the current period including:  ARC  Interest on NOO  Adjustment of NOO  NOO adjustment prevents double counting of expense since ARCs include an amortization of prior contribution gains/losses previously expensed City of Palo Alto (ID # 2655) City Council Staff Report Report Type: Action ItemsMeeting Date: 4/16/2012 April 16, 2012 Page 1 of 2 (ID # 2655) Summary Title: Approval Retiree Medical Title: Approval of Retiree Medical Report and Assumption Changes From: City Manager Lead Department: Administrative Services Recommendation Staff recommends that the City Council approve the Finance Committee recommendation to accept the retiree medical actuarial study with changes to amortization method, asset smoothing, and actuarial load, but keep the 7.75 discount rate assumption in 2012. For fiscal 2013, staff recommends accepting all Finance-Committee recommended changes, including the discount rate changing from 7.25 to 7.61 percent to match the highest CalPERS discount rate option. Council Review and Recommendation On February 28 the Finance Committee discussed the retiree medical actuarial report and options for changing certain assumptions impacting the liability valuation amount (Attachment A). The discussion was the follow-up to Council direction on January 30 (Attachment A) to consider options for reducing the ARC in FY2012 and to include reductions in the FY2012 midyear budget. Minutes of the February 28 discussion are provided in Attachment B. John Bartel, of Bartel and Associates, presented eight options for reducing the ARC to the Finance Committee on February 28. The entire list of options is included in Attachment A. The Finance Committee voted to approve options 1-3 for reducing the ARC in FY2012. The impact of these changes is shown in the table below. Assumption Reduction in ARC ($ millions) in FY2012 1) Amortization Method $0.3 2) Asset Smoothing $0.3 3) Actuarial Load $0.3 Original ARC $13.5 Revised ARC $12.5 April 16, 2012 Page 2 of 2 (ID # 2655) For FY2012 only options 1-3 have flexibility to be adjusted and reduce the citywide ARC by $.9 million or approximately $.6 million for the General Fund. Options 4-8 would have a major caveat comment from Bartel and Associates that could result in a negative impact from the external financial audit. In FY2013 the ARC is $14.2 million. It is estimated that it will be reduced by $1.4 million citywide (or approximately by $1. million in the General Fund) with the assumption changes for an estimated revised ARC of $12.8 million in FY2013. This assumes roughly the same savings from the assumption changes in FY2012 carried over to FY2013 in addition to the assumption change to the discount rate. With Council approval staff will ask Bartel and Associates to revise the actuarial study for FY2013 since we only have an estimate based on FY2012 changes. This will include any changes from newly negotiated labor agreements. For FY2012, the Finance Committee decided to consider if the City should fund the additional $1.7 million in the ARC from the budget stabilization reserve during the FY2013 budget discussions in May. Depending on where projected revenues materialize the draw on reserve potentially could be less as some of the key revenues are showing slightly higher trends. Staff will present a funding plan for FY2013 during the proposed budget Finance Committee hearings in May. Environmental Impact This is not a project for the purposes of the California Environmental Quality Act. Attachments: Attachment A: ID# 2578 02-28-12 (PDF) Attachment B: Excerpt Minutes from February 28, 2012 (PDF) Prepared By: David Ramberg, Assistant Director Department Head: Lalo Perez, Director City Manager Approval: ____________________________________ James Keene, City Manager City of Palo Alto (ID # 2578) Finance Committee Staff Report Report Type:Meeting Date: 2/28/2012 February 28, 2012 Page 1 of 2 (ID # 2578) Summary Title: Retiree Medical Discussion Title: Retiree Medical Discussion From: City Manager Lead Department: Administrative Services Recommendation Staff recommends that the Finance Committee: Review, discuss and provide feedback on the attached additional retiree medical actuarial valuation analysis (see Attachment C). Council Review and Recommendation On January 30 the City Council discussed the retiree medical actuarial report (Attachment A). Minutes for the meeting are attached to this report (Attachment B). The City Council did not act to change their decision from November 28, 2011 accepting the updated retiree medical actuarial study. The Council directed staff to return to the Finance Committee with additional analysis from the City’s consultant, Bartel and Associates. The analysis is attached to this report (Attachment C). As directed by the Council, the analysis focuses on different levels of the annual required contribution (ARC) for the nine different assumption levels as outlined in the report. Due to the time necessary to prepare the analysis, staff and John Bartel will be presenting the information to the Finance Committee in discussion format at the Finance Committee meeting on February 28. Attachments: Attachment A: CMR ID# 2432 (PDF) Attachment B: Excerpt from the January 30, 2012 Council Minutes (PDF) Attachement C: Additional Retiree Medical Analysis - Bartel and Associates (PDF) February 28, 2012 Page 2 of 2 (ID # 2578) Prepared By:David Ramberg, Assistant Director Department Head:Lalo Perez, Director City Manager Approval: ____________________________________ James Keene, City Manager City of Palo Alto (ID # 2432) City Council Staff Report Report Type: Action ItemsMeeting Date: 1/30/2012 January 30, 2012 Page 1 of 2 (ID # 2432) Summary Title: Retiree Medical Discussion Title: Retiree Medical Actuarial Report Discussion From:City Manager Lead Department: Administrative Services Recommendation Staff recommends that Council: ·Review, discuss and provide feedback on the attached actuarial valuation results (see Attachment A). Council Review and Recommendations On November 28, 2011, Council approved staff’s recommendation to review and accept the updated retiree medical actuarial study with valuation dates as of January 1 and June 30, 2011. The actuarial study results are required by the Government Accounting Standards Board (GASB) Statement No. 45, Accounting and Financial Reporting by Employers for Post Employment Benefits other Than Pensions. Included in their approval, Council directed staff to schedule a Council meeting, prior to the midyear budget, with the actuarial consultant who prepared the retiree medical actuarial study, Bartel and Associates. The meeting is scheduled for January 30, 2012. Council requested the meeting in order to have an in-depth discussion on several of the assumptions included in the actuarial study and its conclusions. Among the assumptions up for discussion are the “closed amortization period” (versus “open”) and the assumed rate of return on investments going forward and the medical trend assumptions. A listing of all assumptions appears in Attachment A. Council asked for the investment rate of return in the California Employers’ Retiree Benefit Trust (CERBT) for the City’s trust investment since its inception in March 2008. The rate of return (money-weighted) for the City’s trust investment for the period March 17, 2008 through June 30, 2011 is 3.62 percent. The rate of return (time-weighted) for the CERBT, overall, for the period of June 1, 2007 (trust inception) through June 30, 2011 is 1.24 percent. Attached to this memo are the related staff reports from the Finance Committee discussion on October 18, 2011 and the Council discussion on November 28, 2011. January 30, 2012 Page 2 of 2 (ID # 2432) Attachments: ·Attachment A: Retiree Medical Report (ID 2345)(PDF) ·Attachment B: Excerpt from Finance Committee meeting of November 28, 2011 (PDF) Prepared By:David Ramberg, Assistant Director Department Head:Lalo Perez, Director City Manager Approval: ____________________________________ James Keene, City Manager City of Palo Alto (ID # 2345) City Council Staff Report Report Type: Consent Calendar Meeting Date: 11/28/2011 November 28, 2011 Page 1 of 2 (ID # 2345) Summary Title: City Council to Approve Retiree Medical Title: Finance Committee Recommendation that the Council Approve and Accept the Updated Retiree Medical Actuarial Study From:City Manager Lead Department: Administrative Services Recommendation The Finance Committee recommends that the Council approve and accept the updated retiree medical actuarial study (Attachment A). Committee Review and Recommendations On October 18, 2011, the Finance Committee voted unanimously to accept staff’s recommendation to review and accept the updated retiree medical actuarial study with valuation dates as of January 1 and June 30, 2011. The actuarial study results are required by the Government Accounting Standards Board (GASB) Statement No. 45, Accounting and Financial Reporting by Employers for Post Employment Benefits Other Than Pensions. The updated study results in an increase of $3.8 million (39%) in the City’s retiree medical liability between 2009 and 2011. The result is that the City’s cost for retiree medical goes from $9.8 million to $13.6 million annually. The reasons for the cost increase are based on changes to actuarial assumptions and demographic changes and other changes as discussed in detail in Attachment A. Staff will provide funding recommendations as part of the FY2012 mid-year budget process and as part of the FY2013 proposed budget. In addition, staff will include the revised costs in the long range financial forecast, which will be presented to the Finance Committee in early 2012. Attachments: ·Attachment A: Retiree Medical Study (PDF) ·Attachment B: Finance Committee minutes 10/18/2011 (PDF) ·Attachment C: Staff Presentation (PDF) ·Attachment D: At places memo (PDF) November 28, 2011 Page 2 of 2 (ID # 2345) Prepared By:David Ramberg, Assistant Director Department Head:Lalo Perez, Director City Manager Approval: James Keene, City Manager City of Palo Alto (ID # 2180) Finance Committee Staff Report Report Type:Meeting Date: 10/18/2011 October 18, 2011 Page 1 of 5 (ID # 2180) Council Priority: City Finances Summary Title: Retiree Medical Study Title: Review and Acceptance of Updated Retiree Medical Actuarial Study - Valuation Date January 1, 2011 and Valuation Date June 30, 2011 From:City Manager Lead Department: Administrative Services EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report provides the City Council with the actuarial study results required by the Government Accounting Standards Board's (GASB) Statement No. 45, Accounting and Financial Reporting by Employers for Post Employment Benefits Other Than Pensions. The results of the study as compared to the 2009 study show a fairly dramatic increase in Citywide costs. See Attachment B, slide 31 for a summary of the study results. RECOMMENDATION Staff recommends that the Council review and approve the attached actuarial valuation results (see Attachment A). BACKGROUND Per GASB Statement No. 45, beginning in Fiscal Year 2008, like other governmental entities, the City of Palo Alto was required to recognize in its financial statements any unfunded, earned retiree medical costs including those for current active employees. GASB 45 also requires the City to complete an actuarial study on a biennial basis, to determine the retiree medical liability and how much the City should be setting aside each year to fund that liability, the annual required contribution (ARC). In Fiscal Year 2008, the City established an irrevocable trust with California Employers Retirees Benefit Trust (CERBT) for retiree medical benefits. In Fiscal Year 2008, the City transferred $33.8 million to the trust. As of January 1, 2011, the trust was valued at $40.2 million, and as of June 30, 2011, it was valued at $44.8 million. Of course, recent market volatility may have a downward effect on future figures, not included in this study. DISCUSSION 2 Packet Pg. 38 October 18, 2011 Page 2 of 5 (ID # 2180) Bartel and Associates completed an actuarial valuation for the City on October 11, 2011 with two valuation dates: January 1, 2011 and June 30, 2011. The reason for the two valuation dates goes back to a new regulation pertaining to members of the CERBT (trust). All the City’s past valuations have used a January 1 valuation date. However, beginning FY 2012, members of the CERBT are required by GASB 57 to switch to a common valuation date of June 30. Therefore for this study only, the City opted to utilize both the January 1 and June 30 valuation dates. The January 1, 2011 valuation determines the Actuarially Required Contribution (ARC) for FY 2012; the June 30, 2011 valuation determines the ARC for FY 2013 and FY 2014. January 1, 2011 Valuation Date The actuarial study using a valuation date of January 1, 2011 valued the City's unfunded retiree medical liability at $134.7 million, compared to the unfunded liability of $105.0 million on January 1, 2009 –a 28% increase. The Annual Required Contribution (ARC) associated with the January 1, 2011 valuation is $13.6 million for Fiscal Year 2012. This is an increase of $3.8 million (39%) over the ARC of $9.8 million associated with the January 1, 2009 valuation. The dramatic increase in the City’s retiree medical liability between the 2009 and 2011 studies is attributable to several differences in assumptions used by the respective actuarial firms (Milliman and Associates performed the 2009 study, and Bartel and Associates performed the current study). Those differences are as follows (Attachment A, page 7 also summarizes the assumption changes and their impact on the City’s liability): 1.New CalPERS “Decrements.” The most recent CalPERS experience study –which gathers demographic information throughout the state –noted increasing lifespans of retirees, decreasing average retirement age, and other factors, all of which increase the City’s projected unfunded liability by approximately $8 million. 2.Recent Spike in Palo Alto Retirements –as cost-sharing and wage freezes have been implemented, many people have accelerated their retirement plans. There were more than the projected retirements between 2009 and 2011. All of the retirements since the last study added $2.7 million to the City’s unfunded liability. 3.Medical Trend Assumptions –The table below shows the difference in medical premium growth rates assumed in the respective studies. Milliman assumed a slow but steady increase in rates ranging from 6.5% in the early years and settling at 5.85% from 2018 on. On the other hand, Bartel assumes that the rate of increase will be more front- loaded, starting at 9% and settling to 5% per year starting in 2021. Cumulative increases assumed in the more recent report are higher than those assumed in 2009. (See Attachment B, slide 10 for a comparison of specific medical trend assumptions in the two studies, and Attachment C for PERS Medical Plan rate changes 2002-2012.) This added $4.8 million to the City’s unfunded liability. 2 Packet Pg. 39 October 18, 2011 Page 3 of 5 (ID # 2180) 4.“Actuarial Load”–This is a 2% premium applied to assumed costs based on the premise that PERS Preferred Provider (PPO) Medical Plan premiums have been increasing at a slower rate than have claim costs. PERS has been funding the difference from reserves, but Bartel believes that eventually rate increases will need to bounce upward to more evenly match the increased costs. This anticipated “bounce” adds $3.4 million to the City’s unfunded liability. 5.Cost Sharing by Miscellaneous Group –This change in benefits was implemented after the 2009 study and caused the City’s unfunded liability to decrease by $14.2 million. Note that the impact of any public safety group concessions is not included in this study. 6.Migration of Retirees to More Expensive Medical Plans –While 13% of actives are enrolled in PERS PPO plans, that percentage rises to 32% for retirees under 65, and to 54% of retirees over 65. This seems to be due to the increased portability of the PPO plans for retirees who move out of the area. The last study may not have recognized this trend, which adds $7.7 million to the City’s unfunded liability. (See Attachment B, slide 7 for enrollment statistics for active and retired employees.) 7.Asset Smoothing –Bartel recommends smoothing gains and losses in the trust balance over 5 years, to avoid volatility in the City’s ARC. For example, the year-end 2010 Trust balance was $40.2 million, an increase of 26% over the year-end 2009 balance of $32.0 million. With asset smoothing, the actuarial value of the trust assets for year-end 2010 would be $35.3 million, since that 26% gain is spread over the next five years. By saving some of the market gain for subsequent years when there may be losses, the City assumed an additional $4.6 million in unfunded liability. 8.Closed Amortization Period –Rather than continually “re-up” the 30-year amortization period, which would never actually completely pay off the liability, Bartel recommends amortizing over the remaining 28 years of the 30-year period beginning 2009. The impact of this change on the City’s unfunded liability is included in that of the Demographic and Other Factors discussed below. 9.Demographic and Other Factors –These are ways in which the City's actual experience differs from what is assumed in the CalPERS experience study. For example, to the extent that City employees retire earlier or later than average, or go out on disability more or less than the statewide average, this affects the liability. In our case these factors add $12.4 million to our unfunded liability. (See Attachment B, slide 5 for statistics on active and retired employees included in the study.) The General Fund’s share of the citywide ARC totals approximately $9.5 million annually for FY 2012, an increase of $2.7 million from the amount budgeted for FY 2012 based on the January 1, 2009 valuation. That amount can be funded from the CERBT trust, if needed. Staff will provide more precise figures for the General Fund portion by the October 18 Finance Committee meeting. (See Attachment D: Results by Fund.) 2 Packet Pg. 40 October 18, 2011 Page 4 of 5 (ID # 2180) June 30, 2011 Valuation Date The actuarial study using a valuation date of June 30, 2011 valued the City's unfunded liability at $139.7 million, which is an increase of $5.0 million over the January 1 valuation date. The ARC associated with this valuation is $14.4 million for Fiscal Year 2013, and projected at $14.8 million for 2014. (Again, see Attachment B, slide 31.) The $0.8 million jump in the ARC between FY 2012 and FY 2013 is primarily due to the decrease in assumed discount rate from 7.75% to 7.25%. The reasons for the respective discount rate assumptions are: The January 1, 2011 valuation assumed a discount rate of 7.75% as mandated by CERBT. Beginning Fiscal Year 2013, CERBT requires that each member agency employ a discount rate no higher than 7.61%, as applicable to its selected asset allocation. The trust offers three possible asset allocations, of which Option 1 –the City’s chosen option -has the highest projected yield. CERBT’s expected return over a 20-year period for Option 1 Asset Classifications is 7.61%, with a 50% confidence limit. Bartel recommends dropping the assumed rate to 7.25% to achieve a 60% confidence limit. The General Fund portion of the FY 2013 and FY 2014 ARCs is $10.0 million and $10.3 million, respectively. Again, staff will provide more precise figures for the General Fund portion of the FY 2013 and 2014 ARCs by the October 18 Council meeting. RESOURCE IMPACT The FY 2012 budget allocated $9.8 million towards the ARC for all funds, but this amount was an estimate before the actuarial study was completed. The ARC contained in the actuarial study was $13.6 million, representing an increase of $3.8 million across all City funds. The General Fund portion of the increase is $2.3 million for FY 2012, which may be drawn from the trust, if needed. Future years’ ARC funding will need to be incorporated into those years’ budgets. Staff will provide funding recommendations during the Mid-Year or FY 2013 proposed budget process. ENVIRONMENTAL REVIEW The action recommended is not a project for the purposes of the California Environmental Quality Act. Attachments: ·-a:Attachment A: Executive Summary (PDF) ·-b:Attachment B: Revised Preliminary Results (PDF) ·-c:Attachment C: 2002-2012 PEMHCA Premiums (PDF) ·-d:Attachment D: Results by Fund (PDF) 2 Packet Pg. 41 October 18, 2011 Page 5 of 5 (ID # 2180) Prepared By:Nancy Nagel, Senior Financial Analyst Department Head:Lalo Perez, Director City Manager Approval: ____________________________________ James Keene, City Manager 2 Packet Pg. 42 City of Palo Alto Retiree Healthcare Plan January 1, 2011 & June 30, 2011 Actuarial Valuations Executive Summary October 11, 2011 Bartel Associates, LLC 411 Borel Avenue, Suite 101 San Mateo, California 94402 Phone: 650-377-1600 Email: jbartel@bartel-associates.com 2.a Packet Pg. 43 -: A t t a c h m e n t A : E x e c u t i v e S u m m a r y ( 2 1 8 0 : R e t i r e e M e d i c a l S t u d y ) O:\Clients\City of Palo Alto\OPEB\2011 val\Reports\BA PaloAltoCi 11-10-11 OPEB 6-30-11 Valuation Executive Summary.doc 2.a Packet Pg. 44 -: A t t a c h m e n t A : E x e c u t i v e S u m m a r y ( 2 1 8 0 : R e t i r e e M e d i c a l S t u d y ) City of Palo Alto Retiree Healthcare Plan January 1, 2011 & June 30, 2011 Actuarial Valuations Executive Summary October 11, 2011 Governmental Accounting Standards Board Statement No. 45 (GASB 45), “Accounting and Financial Reporting by Employers for Postemployment Benefits Other Than Pensions” provides standards for the financial reporting of the City’s Retiree Healthcare Plan. The City implemented GASB 45 for the 2007/08 fiscal year. The January 1, 2011 actuarial valuation provides the financial reporting information for the City’s 2011/12 fiscal year and the June 30, 2011 actuarial valuation provides the financial reporting information for the City’s 2012/13 and 2013/14 fiscal years. VALUATION RESULTS Participants: The same participant data was used to prepare both the January 1, 2011 and June 30, 2011 actuarial valuations. A summary of this data as of June 30, 2011 is: Participants 6/30/11  Actives  Number 923  Average Age 44.7  Average City Service 10.8  Average PERS Service 13.7  Average Pay $86,007  Total Payroll (000’s) $79,384  Retirees  Number 860  Average Age 67.0  Average Retirement Age 55.5 Plan Assets: Assets must be set aside in a trust that cannot legally be used for any purpose other than to pay retiree healthcare benefits in order to be considered plan assets for GASB 45 purposes. The City's retiree healthcare plan is currently funded with the CalPERS Trust (CERBT). The City began prefunding the plan’s obligations during 2007/08. The City’s intention is to fund the full ARC each year. Investment gains and losses relative to the assumed net rate of return are spread over a 5- year period by using an Actuarial Value of Assets rather than the Market Value of Assets to determine the plan’s costs and funded status. This helps smooth any volatility in the Market Value of Assets and provides an element of stability for the plan expense and City contributions. The Actuarial Value of Assets is kept within a corridor of 80% to 120% of the Market Value to make sure it does not diverge significantly from the Market Value of Assets. The Market Value of Assets was $40,213,000 and the Actuarial Value of assets was $35,294,000 on January 1, 2011. The Market Value of Assets was $44,774,000 and the Actuarial Value of assets was $40,222,000 on June 30, 2011. The following table shows how the Market Value of Assets changed through 6/30/11 and is projected to change during 2011/12. 2.a Packet Pg. 45 -: A t t a c h m e n t A : E x e c u t i v e S u m m a r y ( 2 1 8 0 : R e t i r e e M e d i c a l S t u d y ) City of Palo Alto Retiree Healthcare Plan January 1, 2011 & June 30, 2011 Actuarial Valuations Executive Summary Page 2 October 11, 2011 Plan Assets (Amounts in 000’s) 2009 2010 1/1/11- 6/30/11 Projected 2011/12  Market Value at Beginning of Year $ 24,616 $ 32,042 $ 40,213 $ 44,774  Contributions 700 3,532 2,448 5,165  Benefit Payments - - - -  Administrative Expenses (23) (34) (41) -  Investment Earnings 6,749 4,674 2,155 3,246  Market Value at End of Year 32,042 40,213 44,774 53,185  Actuarial Value at End of Year 35,294 40,222 49,279  Annualized Investment Return  Market Value 26.9% 13.7% 5.3% 7.3%  Actuarial Value 11.6% 11.9% 7.0% 9.7% Funded Status: A plan’s funded status is measured by comparing the Actuarial Accrued Liability (see definitions and assumptions section below) with Plan Assets. A plan is considered funded when Plan Assets equal the Actuarial Accrued Liability. As the City’s retiree healthcare plan had not been funded prior to GASB 45 implementation in 2007/08, the City established a contribution policy that would fund benefits as earned for each future year and would fund the Unfunded Actuarial Accrued Liability over a 30-year period. GASB 45 requires the discount rate used to determine the present value of future benefit payments be based on the source of funds used to pay the benefits. This is the expected long-term net earnings rate on plan assets for funded plans and the expected long-term net earnings rate on an agency’s investment fund for unfunded plans. A 7.75% and 7.25% discount rate was used for the City’s January 1, 2011 and June 30, 2011 valuations, respectively, representing the long-term expected net return for the CERBT. See page 5 in the Definitions and Assumptions Section for a discussion of the discount rates used in the valuations. The plan was approximately 21% funded as of January 1, 2011, and 22% funded as of June 30, 2011: 1/1/11 Valuation 6/30/11 Valuation Funded Status (Amounts in 000’s) 7.75% Discount Rate 7.25% Discount Rate  Actuarial Accrued Liability (AAL)  Actives $ 51,179 $ 57,479  Retirees 118,800 122,444  Total 169,979 179,923  Actuarial Value of Plan Assets (AVA) 35,294 40,222  Unfunded AAL (UAAL) 134,685 139,701  Funded Percentage (AVA/AAL) 21% 22% Annual Required Contribution (ARC): The Annual Required Contribution is the Normal Cost plus an amortization payment toward the Unfunded Actuarial Accrued Liability. The Normal Cost is the value of benefits allocated to the current fiscal year for service worked during that year. The Unfunded Liability is 2.a Packet Pg. 46 -: A t t a c h m e n t A : E x e c u t i v e S u m m a r y ( 2 1 8 0 : R e t i r e e M e d i c a l S t u d y ) City of Palo Alto Retiree Healthcare Plan January 1, 2011 & June 30, 2011 Actuarial Valuations Executive Summary Page 3 October 11, 2011 amortized as a level percent of payroll over a period of 28 years as of June 30, 2011 (27 years remaining as of June 30, 2012). The City’s Annual Required Contributions for 2011/12, 2012/13 and 2013/14 are as follows: 7.75% 7.25% Annual Required Contribution (Amounts in 000’s) 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14  Normal Cost $ 4,937 $ 5,609 $ 5,791  Unfunded Liability Amortization 8,666 8,769 9,054  Annual Required Contribution 13,603 14,378 14,845  Estimated Payroll 80,664 83,285 85,992  ARC as a % of Payroll 16.9% 17.3% 17.3%  Amortization Period 28 Yrs 27 Yrs 26 Yrs Net OPEB Obligation (NOO): The City’s Net OPEB Obligation is the historical difference since GASB 45 implementation between actual contributions made and Annual Required Contributions. Benefits paid for current retirees directly from City assets are considered contributions. The Net OPEB Obligation would be zero for an agency that always contributed the Annual Required Contributions. An agency that contributed more than the ARC would have a Net OPEB Asset (NOA). Annual OPEB Cost (AOC): The Annual OPEB Cost is the plan’s fiscal year expense. It is equal to the Annual Required Contribution plus expected interest on the Net OPEB Obligation less an amortization of the Net OPEB Obligation. It is different from the Annual Required Contribution because the Annual Required Contribution may include a provision for amounts not yet funded that have been expensed in prior Annual OPEB Costs. The Annual OPEB Cost equals the Annual Required Contribution when the Net OPEB Obligation at the beginning of the year is zero. 7.75% 7.25% Annual OPEB Cost (Amounts in 000’s) 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14  Annual Required Contribution $ 13,603 $ 14,378 $ 14,845  Interest on Net OPEB Obligation (1,781) (1,687) (1,705)  Amortization of Net OPEB Obligation 1,483 1,451 1,498  Annual OPEB Cost 13,305 14,141 14,638  Amortization Period 28 Yrs 27 Yrs 26 Yrs The City’s expected Net OPEB Obligations for 2011/12, 2012/13 and 2013/14 are: 7.75% 7.25% Estimated Net OPEB Obligation (Amounts in 000’s) 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14  Net OPEB Obligation (Asset) at Begin. of Yr $ (22,977) $ (23,275) $ (23,511)  Annual OPEB Cost 13,305 14,141 14,638  Estimated Contributions 13,603 14,378 14,845  Net OPEB Obligation (Asset) at End of Yr (23,275) (23,511) (23,718) The City’s actual June 30, 2012, June 20, 2013 and June 30, 2014 Net OPEB Obligations will differ from those shown above because actual contributions may differ from those estimated. 2.a Packet Pg. 47 -: A t t a c h m e n t A : E x e c u t i v e S u m m a r y ( 2 1 8 0 : R e t i r e e M e d i c a l S t u d y ) City of Palo Alto Retiree Healthcare Plan January 1, 2011 & June 30, 2011 Actuarial Valuations Executive Summary Page 4 October 11, 2011 Projection: The following table shows the projected Net OPEB Obligation, Annual Required Contribution, Annual OPEB Contribution, and City Contribution (including benefit payments paid directly by the City) over the next 10 years. Full ARC Pre-Funding Projection 7.25% Discount Rate1 (Amounts in 000’s) Contribution Fiscal Year Ending Begin Year NOO ARC Annual OPEB Cost (AOC) Benefit Pmts Pre- Funding Total Contrib Payroll Contrib % of Payroll 2012 $(22,977) $13,603 $13,305 $8,438 $5,165 $13,603 $80,664 16.9% 2013 (23,275) 14,378 14,141 8,988 5,390 14,378 83,285 17.3% 2014 (23,511) 14,845 14,638 9,986 4,859 14,845 85,992 17.3% 2015 (23,718) 15,327 15,155 10,929 4,398 15,327 88,787 17.3% 2016 (23,891) 15,825 15,690 11,945 3,880 15,825 91,672 17.3% 2017 (24,026) 16,340 16,247 12,940 3,400 16,340 94,652 17.3% 2018 (24,119) 16,871 16,825 13,832 3,039 16,871 97,728 17.3% 2019 (24,165) 17,419 17,425 14,692 2,727 17,419 100,904 17.3% 2020 (24,159) 17,985 18,049 15,574 2,412 17,985 104,183 17.3% 2021 (24,095) 18,570 18,697 16,460 2,110 18,570 107,569 17.3% DEFINITIONS AND ASSUMPTIONS Present Value of Benefits: When an actuary prepares an actuarial valuation, he or she first gathers participant data (active employees, retirees, and beneficiaries) as of the valuation date. Using this data and appropriate actuarial assumptions, the actuary projects the future benefit payments. The actuarial assumptions estimate when employees will retire, terminate, die or become disabled, as well as salary increases, inflation, and net investment earnings. The expected future benefit payments are discounted back to the valuation date using the expected net investment return or discount rate. This discounted value is the Present Value of Benefits. It represents the funds the plan needs as of the valuation date to pay all expected future benefits if all assumptions are realized and no additional contributions are made by the City. The City’s January 1, 2011 and June 30, 2011 Present Value of Benefits were $204.3 million and $219.2 million, respectively. Actuarial Accrued Liability: The Actuarial Accrued Liability is the portion of the Present Value of Benefits that has been allocated to prior service through the valuation date. The City’s January 1, 2011 and June 30, 2011 Actuarial Accrued Liabilities were $170.0 million and $179.9 million, respectively Normal Cost: The Normal Cost is the portion of the Present Value of Benefits allocated to the current fiscal year. The plan’s Normal Costs for the 2011/12 and 2012/13 fiscal years are $4.9 million and $5.6 million, respectively. 1 Fiscal year ending 2012 based on prior valuation with 7.75% discount rate. 2.a Packet Pg. 48 -: A t t a c h m e n t A : E x e c u t i v e S u m m a r y ( 2 1 8 0 : R e t i r e e M e d i c a l S t u d y ) City of Palo Alto Retiree Healthcare Plan January 1, 2011 & June 30, 2011 Actuarial Valuations Executive Summary Page 5 October 11, 2011 Actuarial Cost Method: The actuarial cost method determines how benefits are allocated to each year of service. It has no effect on the Present Value of Benefits but has significant effect on the Actuarial Accrued Liability and Normal Cost. The City’s January 1, 2011 and June 30, 2011 retiree healthcare valuations were prepared using the Entry Age Normal cost method. Under the Entry Age Normal cost method, the Plan’s Normal Cost is developed as a level percent of payroll over the participants’ working lifetimes. Actuarial Assumptions: Under GASB 45, an actuary must follow current actuarial standards of practice. These standards generally call for the use of explicit assumptions which means that each individual assumption must represent the actuary's best estimate for that assumption. For the January 1, 2011 valuation, a discount rate of 7.75% was used, as required by CalPERS for plans funded in the CERBT. In March 2011, the CalPERS’ Board approved the following changes to the CERBT:  created 3 different asset allocation strategies, each with different expected returns and volatility,  revised the discount rate assumption from a mandated rate (7.75%) to provide agencies and their actuaries with the flexibility to select the discount rate (up to a maximum rate based on the selected asset allocation). For each investment option, CalPERS’ maximum discount rate is the median return2, with lower rates also being acceptable. The following table shows CERBT target asset allocation strategies and CalPERS maximum discount rates: Option 1 Option 2 Option 3  Asset Allocation  Global Equity 66.0% 50.1% 31.6%  Global Real Estate 8.0% 8.0% 8.0%  Commodities 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%  Inflation Linked Bonds 5.0% 15.0% 15.0%  U.S. Nominal Bonds 18.0% 23.9% 42.4%  Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%  Maximum Discount Rate 7.61% 7.06% 6.39% Bartel Associates recommends a lower discount rate than the maximum to build in some level of conservatism, so the assumption is expected to be realized (or exceeded) approximately 55% to 60% of the time. This results in the following discount rates: Option 1 Option 2 Option 3  ≈60% Realization 7.00% 6.50% 6.00%  ≈55% Realization 7.25% 6.75% 6.25% For the June 30, 2011 actuarial valuation, the City chose the Option 1 asset allocation strategy, and agreed that it would be prudent to build in a margin for conservatism when choosing a discount rate. The discount rate for the June 30, 2011 valuation is 7.25%, which represents an estimated 55% confidence level that actual future returns will be at least that high. The change in discount rate from 7.75% to 7.25% between 2 The median return represents the return at which ½ of the returns are expected to be higher and ½ lower. 2.a Packet Pg. 49 -: A t t a c h m e n t A : E x e c u t i v e S u m m a r y ( 2 1 8 0 : R e t i r e e M e d i c a l S t u d y ) City of Palo Alto Retiree Healthcare Plan January 1, 2011 & June 30, 2011 Actuarial Valuations Executive Summary Page 6 October 11, 2011 these two valuations results in a $10.6 million actuarial loss. The January 1, 2009 Milliman valuation used actual premiums for 2009, and then used a healthcare inflation rate of 6.5% from 2010-2014, 6.0% from 2015-2017, and 5.85% for each year thereafter. In the January 1, 2011 valuation, actual premiums were used for 2011 and 2012. The healthcare inflation rate for non- Medicare eligible participants starts at 9.0% (the increase in 2013 premiums over 2012 premiums) and grades down to 5% after 8 years. The healthcare inflation rate for Medicare eligible participants starts 0.4% higher and also grades down to 5% after 8 years. This change in medical trend leads to a $4.8 million increase in the Actuarial Accrued Liability. This is partially offset by a $3.9 million gain, because of the difference between actual 2011 and 2012 premiums and projected 2011 and 2012 premiums from the January 1, 2009 valuation. A 2% load was added in the January 1, 2011 valuation, to take into account that recent PEMHCA PPO premium increases are believed to be below per capita claims increases. This load results in a $3.4 million increase in the Actuarial Accrued Liability. Retirement, disability, termination, and mortality assumptions were changed from the CalPERS 97-02 Experience Study in the January 1, 2009 valuation to the CalPERS 97-07 Experience Study in the January 1, 2011 and June 30, 2011 valuations. This change results in a $7.9 million increase in the Actuarial Accrued Liability. Another key January 1, 2011 valuation assumption change is the assumed medical plan at retirement. We believe the 2009 valuation assumed each active participant remained in the same plan at retirement and Medicare eligibility (at age 65). The January 1, 2011 valuation assumes percentages, as shown below, based upon actual participation of current retirees, which differs substantially from the participation of current actives. This change increased the Actuarial Accrued Liability by approximately $7.7 million. Medical Plan at Retirement Miscellaneous Safety <65 65+ <65 65+ Blue Shield 35% 20% 35% 20% Kaiser 25% 25% 25% 25% PERS Choice 30% 20% 20% 20% PERSCare 10% 35% 10% 35% PORAC 0% 0% 10% 0% A final key assumption change between the January 1, 2009 valuation and the January 1, 2011 valuation is the Medicare eligibility rate. The 2011 valuation assumes 80% of Miscellaneous actives and 90% of Safety actives hired prior to 4/1/86 will be eligible for Medicare, and all actives hired after 4/1/86 will be eligible for Medicare. Similarly, 90% of current retirees under the age of 65 are assumed to be eligible for Medicare. These assumptions produce an approximate increase in the Actuarial Accrued Liability of $2.6 million. The City’s introduction of sharing of future premium cost increases for Management/Confidential, SEIU and UMPAPA for those retiring after April 1, 2011 has led to a $14.1 million decrease in the Actuarial Accrued Liability. The following table shows changes, actual and expected, from the January 1, 2009 valuation to the January 1, 2011 valuation and, subsequently to the June 30, 2011 valuation: 2.a Packet Pg. 50 -: A t t a c h m e n t A : E x e c u t i v e S u m m a r y ( 2 1 8 0 : R e t i r e e M e d i c a l S t u d y ) City of Palo Alto Retiree Healthcare Plan January 1, 2011 & June 30, 2011 Actuarial Valuations Executive Summary Page 7 October 11, 2011 Changes From January 1, 2009 Valuation to January 1, 2011 Valuation AAL (AVA) UAAL  Actual 1/1/09 $129,661 $(24,616) $105,045  Expected 6/30/11 150,971 (42,322) 108,649  Assumption Changes  Medical Trend 4,840 4,840  New CalPERS Decrements 7,916 7,916  Actuarial Load 3,421 3,421  Medical Plan at Retirement 7,740 7,740  Medicare Eligibility 2,625 2,625  Asset Smoothing 4,552 4,552  Contribution Loss (2,452) (2,452)  Plan Change – Cost Sharing (14,194) (14,194)  Experience (Gains)/Losses  Caps/Premiums < Expected (3,917) (3,917)  New Retirees 2,700 2,700  Demographic & Other 12,383 - 12,383  Total (Gain)/Loss 23,514 2,100 25,614  Projected 6/30/11 174,485 (40,222) 134,263 Changes From January 1, 2011 Valuation to June 30, 2011 Valuation AAL (AVA) UAAL  Actual 1/1/11 $169,979 $(35,294) $134,685  Projected 6/30/11 174,485 (40,222) 134,263  Expected 6/30/12 182,840 (49,279) 133,561  Assumption Changes  Discount Rate 10,613 10,613  Experience (Gains)/Losses  Demographic & Other (3,510) (3,510)  Total (Gain)/Loss 7,103 - 7,103  Projected 6/30/12 189,943 (49,279) 140,663 2.a Packet Pg. 51 -: A t t a c h m e n t A : E x e c u t i v e S u m m a r y ( 2 1 8 0 : R e t i r e e M e d i c a l S t u d y ) City of Palo Alto Retiree Healthcare Plan January 1, 2011 & June 30, 2011 Actuarial Valuations Executive Summary Page 8 October 11, 2011 RETIREE HEALTHCARE BENEFITS  Eligibility  Retire directly from the City under CalPERS (age 50 and 5 years of CalPERS service or disability)  Retiree Medical (Hired<1/1/043)  Retired < 1/1/074  Full employee premium and percentage of dependent premium (90% in 2011, 95% in 2012, 100% in 2013+)  Retired > 1/1/074  Same as above but premium limited to 2nd most expensive Basic medical plan in the Bay Area Region  For non-Safety – Mgmt/Conf, SEIU and UMPAPA Retired > 4/1/115, all premium increases starting 1/1/11 shared evenly between City and employee, up to 10%  Retiree Medical (Hired>1/1/046)  Vesting schedule (based on all CalPERS Service)7: Years of Service % < 10 0% 10 50% ↓ ↓ > 20 100%  Vesting applies to 100/90 formula amounts: 2011 2012 Single $ 542 $ 566 2-Party 1,030 1,074 Family 1,326 1,382  Police and Fire with 20 years City service – do not need to retire directly from City  For Mgmt/Conf, SEIU and UMPAPA Retired > 4/1/118, all premium increases starting in 1/1/11 shared evenly between City and employee, up to 10%  Dental, Vision & Life  None 3 1/1/05 for SEIU and 1/1/06 for PAPOA 4 1/1/08 for PAPOA 5 2/1/10 for SEIU 6 1/1/05 for SEIU and 1/1/06 for PAPOA 7 Minimum 5 years City Service. 100% vested for disability retirement 8 2/1/10 for SEIU 2.a Packet Pg. 52 -: A t t a c h m e n t A : E x e c u t i v e S u m m a r y ( 2 1 8 0 : R e t i r e e M e d i c a l S t u d y ) City of Palo Alto Retiree Healthcare Plan January 1, 2011 & June 30, 2011 Actuarial Valuations Executive Summary Page 9 October 11, 2011  Surviving Spouse Benefit  100% of retiree benefit continues to surviving spouse if retiree elects CalPERS survivor allowance  Benefit Changes from Prior Valuation  New Benefit Provision: cost sharing of future premium increases for Mgmt/Conf, SEIU and UMPAPA retiring after 4/1/2011 2.a Packet Pg. 53 -: A t t a c h m e n t A : E x e c u t i v e S u m m a r y ( 2 1 8 0 : R e t i r e e M e d i c a l S t u d y ) CITY OF PALO ALTO RETIREE HEALTHCARE PLAN January 1, 2011 and June 30, 2011 GASB 45 Actuarial Valuations Revised Preliminary Results Presented by John E. Bartel, President Prepared by Deanna Van Valer, Assistant Vice President & Actuary Adam Zimmerer, Actuarial Analyst Bartel Associates, LLC October 11, 2011 Agenda O:\Clients\City of Palo Alto\OPEB\2011 val\Reports\BA PaloAltoCi 11-10-11 OPEB 6-30-11 Revised Preliminary Val Results.doc Topic Page Benefit Summary 1 Participant Statistics 5 Actuarial Assumptions Highlights 9 Actuarial Methods 15 Assets 17 Results – January 1, 2011 Valuation 19 Results – June 30, 2011 Valuation 29 CERBT Investment Options 41 Bartel Associates GASB 45 Database 43 Other Issues 46 Exhibits 48 2.b Packet Pg. 54 -: A t t a c h m e n t B : R e v i s e d P r e l i m i n a r y R e s u l t s ( 2 1 8 0 : R e t i r e e M e d i c a l S t u d y ) October 11, 2011 1 BENEFIT SUMMARY  Eligibility  Retire directly from the City under CalPERS (age 50 and 5 years of CalPERS service or disability)  Medical Provider  CalPERS health plans (PEMHCA)  Non-Safety PEMHCA resolution provides only for PEMHCA minimum (additional benefits paid by City)  Retiree Medical (Hired<1/1/041)  Retired < 1/1/072  Full employee premium and percentage of dependent premium (90% in 2011, 95% in 2012, 100% in 2013+)  Retired > 1/1/072  Same as above but premium limited to 2nd most expensive Basic medical plan in the Bay Area Region  For non-Safety – Mgmt/Conf, SEIU and UMPAPA Retired > 4/1/113, all premium increases starting 1/1/11 shared evenly between City and employee, up to 10% 1 1/1/05 for SEIU and 1/1/06 for PAPOA 2 1/1/08 for PAPOA 3 2/1/10 for SEIU October 11, 2011 2 BENEFIT SUMMARY  Retiree Medical (Hired>1/1/044)  Vesting schedule (based on all CalPERS Service)5: Years of Service % < 10 0% 10 50% ↓ ↓ > 20 100%  Vesting applies to 100/90 formula amounts: 2011 2012 Single $ 542 $ 566 2-Party 1,030 1,074 Family 1,326 1,382  Police and Fire with 20 years City service – do not need to retire directly from City  For Mgmt/Conf, SEIU and UMPAPA Retired > 4/1/116, all premium increases starting in 1/1/11 shared evenly between City and employee, up to 10% 4 1/1/05 for SEIU and 1/1/06 for PAPOA 5 Minimum 5 years City Service. 100% vested for disability retirement 6 2/1/10 for SEIU 2.b Packet Pg. 55 -: A t t a c h m e n t B : R e v i s e d P r e l i m i n a r y R e s u l t s ( 2 1 8 0 : R e t i r e e M e d i c a l S t u d y ) October 11, 2011 3 BENEFIT SUMMARY  Dental, Vision & Life  None  Surviving Spouse Benefit  100% of retiree benefit continues to surviving spouse if retiree elects CalPERS survivor allowance  Benefit Changes from Prior Valuation  New Benefit Provision: cost sharing of future premium increases for Mgmt/Conf, SEIU and UMPAPA retiring after 4/1/2011  Pay-As-You- Go ($000s)  FY 2011/12 (Est) $8,142  FY 2010/11 $6,216  FY 2009/10 $5,519  FY 2008/09 $5,204  FY 2007/08 $4,646 October 11, 2011 4 BENEFIT SUMMARY  Implied Subsidy  Non-Medicare eligible retirees pay active rates instead of actual cost  Active employee premiums subsidize retiree cost Single Retiree Medical Cost 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 Age Mo n t h l y C o s t PremiumMale CostFemale Cost  GASB 45 includes active “implied subsidy” with retiree cost  Community rated plans not required to value implied subsidy  PEMHCA is a community rated plan for most employers  Valuation does not include an implied subsidy 2.b Packet Pg. 56 -: A t t a c h m e n t B : R e v i s e d P r e l i m i n a r y R e s u l t s ( 2 1 8 0 : R e t i r e e M e d i c a l S t u d y ) October 11, 2011 5 PARTICIPANT STATISTICS Participant Statistics June 30, 2011 7 1 retiree with missing birth date assumed to retire at average retirement age 8 Excludes 3 retirees with missing retirement date Miscellaneous Police Fire Total  Actives  Count 737 82 104 923  Average Age 45.7 38.2 43.4 44.7  Average City Service 10.4 10.8 14.0 10.8  Average PERS Service 13.8 11.4 15.0 13.7  Average Salary $78,762 $117,924 $112,185 $86,007  Total Salary (000’s) $58,047 $9,670 $11,667 $79,384  Retirees:  Count 659 87 114 860  Average Age7 67.5 63.0 67.2 67.0  Average Retirement Age8 57.2 47.9 52.1 55.5 October 11, 2011 6 PARTICIPANT STATISTICS Participant Statistics9 January 1, 2009 9 From 1/1/09 Milliman report Miscellaneous Police Fire Total  Actives  Count n/a n/a n/a 955  Average Age n/a n/a n/a 45.3  Average City Service n/a n/a n/a 11.2  Average Salary n/a n/a n/a $103,602  Total Salary (000’s) n/a n/a n/a $98,940  Retirees:  Count n/a n/a n/a 710  Average Age n/a n/a n/a 67.2  Average Retirement Age n/a n/a n/a n/a 2.b Packet Pg. 57 -: A t t a c h m e n t B : R e v i s e d P r e l i m i n a r y R e s u l t s ( 2 1 8 0 : R e t i r e e M e d i c a l S t u d y ) October 11, 2011 7 PARTICIPANT STATISTICS Medical Plan Participation Non-Waived Participants Retirees Medical Plan Actives < 65 ≥ 65 Total Blue Shield 44% 34% 21% 27% Blue Shield NetValue 0% 0% 0% 0% Kaiser 34% 25% 24% 25% PERS Choice 13% 21% 18% 19% PERSCare 0% 11% 36% 25% PORAC 9% 10% 1% 5% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% October 11, 2011 8 PARTICIPANT STATISTICS This page intentionally blank 2.b Packet Pg. 58 -: A t t a c h m e n t B : R e v i s e d P r e l i m i n a r y R e s u l t s ( 2 1 8 0 : R e t i r e e M e d i c a l S t u d y ) October 11, 2011 9 ACTUARIAL ASSUMPTIONS HIGHLIGHTS January 1, 2009 Valuation10 January 1, 2011 & June 30, 2011 Valuations  Valuation Date  January 1, 2009  Fiscal Years 2009/10 & 2010/11 ARCs (end of year)  January 1, 2011  Fiscal Year 2011/12 ARC (end of year)  June 30, 2011  Fiscal Years 2012/13 & 2013/14 ARCs (end of year)  Funding Policy  Full Pre-funding through CalPERS trust (CERBT)  Same  Discount Rate  7.75%  1/1/11 – 7.75%  6/30/11 – 7.25%  Payroll Increases  Aggregate Increases – 3.25%  Merit Increases – CalPERS 1997-2002 Experience Study  Aggregate Increases – 3.25%  Merit Increases – CalPERS 1997-2007 Experience Study 10 From 1/1/09 Milliman report October 11, 2011 10 ACTUARIAL ASSUMPTIONS HIGHLIGHTS January 1, 2009 Valuation10 January 1, 2011 & June 30, 2011 Valuations  Medical Trend Year Increase from Prior Year 2009 Premiums 2010 6.50% 2011 6.50% 2012 6.50% 2013 6.50% 2014 6.50% 2015 6.00% 2016 6.00% 2017 6.00% 2018+ 5.85% Increase from Prior Year Year Non-Medicare Medicare 2009 n/a 2010 n/a 2011 Premiums 2012 Premiums 2013 9.0% 9.4% 2014 8.5% 8.9% 2015 8.0% 8.3% 2016 7.5% 7.8% ↓ ↓ 2021+ 5.0% 5.0% 2.b Packet Pg. 59 -: A t t a c h m e n t B : R e v i s e d P r e l i m i n a r y R e s u l t s ( 2 1 8 0 : R e t i r e e M e d i c a l S t u d y ) October 11, 2011 11 ACTUARIAL ASSUMPTIONS HIGHLIGHTS January 1, 2009 Valuation10 January 1, 2011 & June 30, 2011 Valuations  Actuarial Load  n/a  2.0% load  PEMHCA PPO premium increases below per capita claims increases  Retirement, Mortality, Termination, Disability  CalPERS 1997-2002 Experience Study Misc Fire Police Benefit 2.7%@55 3%@50 3%@50  CalPERS 1997-2007 Experience Study Misc Fire Police Benefit 2.7%@55 3%@50 3%@50 2%@6011 ERA 57.5 54.5 54.0  Participation at Retirement  n/a  DOH < 1/1/04: 100%  DOH > 1/1/04: 95%  Employees with cost sharing: reduce above %’s by 5% 11 Applies to employees hired after July 17, 2010 October 11, 2011 12 ACTUARIAL ASSUMPTIONS HIGHLIGHTS January 1, 2009 Valuation10 January 1, 2011 & June 30, 2011 Valuations  Medical Plan at Retirement  n/a  Miscellaneous: <65 65+ Blue Shield 35% 20% Kaiser 25% 25% PERS Choice 30% 20% PERSCare 10% 35%  Safety: <65 65+ Blue Shield 35% 20% Kaiser 25% 25% PERS Choice 20% 20% PERSCare 10% 35% PORAC 10% 0% 2.b Packet Pg. 60 -: A t t a c h m e n t B : R e v i s e d P r e l i m i n a r y R e s u l t s ( 2 1 8 0 : R e t i r e e M e d i c a l S t u d y ) October 11, 2011 13 ACTUARIAL ASSUMPTIONS HIGHLIGHTS January 1, 2009 Valuation10 January 1, 2011 & June 30, 2011 Valuations  Medicare Eligible Rate  n/a  Actives hired < 4/1/86:  Miscellaneous – 80%  Safety – 90%  Actives hired > 4/1/86: 100%  Retirees < 65: 90%  Everyone eligible for Medicare will elect Part B coverage  Missing PERS Group  n/a  Retirees missing PERS group assumed to be Misc unless fund designates Police or Fire October 11, 2011 14 ACTUARIAL ASSUMPTIONS HIGHLIGHTS This page intentionally blank 2.b Packet Pg. 61 -: A t t a c h m e n t B : R e v i s e d P r e l i m i n a r y R e s u l t s ( 2 1 8 0 : R e t i r e e M e d i c a l S t u d y ) October 11, 2011 15 ACTUARIAL METHODS Method January 1, 2009 Valuation12 January 1, 2011 & June 30, 2011 Valuations  Cost Method  Entry Age Normal Level % of Pay  Same  Unfunded Liability Amortization  30 years open period  28 years (closed period) Fresh Start for total 6/30/2011 UAAL (27 years remaining on 6/30/12)  15 years (closed period) for future gains and losses  Maximum 30-year combined period 12 From 1/1/09 report by Milliman. October 11, 2011 16 ACTUARIAL METHODS Method January 1, 2009 Valuation12 January 1, 2011 & June 30, 2011 Valuations  Actuarial Value of Assets  Market Value of Assets  Investment gains and losses spread over a 5-year rolling period  Not less than 80% nor more than 120% of market value  Same as CalPERS, but shorter period  Implied Subsidy  Employer cost for allowing retirees to participate at active rates  Community rated plans are not required to value an implied subsidy if active rates are independent of number of retirees  PEMHCA is a community rated plan for most employers  Valuation does not include an implied subsidy 2.b Packet Pg. 62 -: A t t a c h m e n t B : R e v i s e d P r e l i m i n a r y R e s u l t s ( 2 1 8 0 : R e t i r e e M e d i c a l S t u d y ) October 11, 2011 17 ASSETS Market Value of Plan Assets (amounts in 000’s) 2009 2010 1/1/11- 6/30/11 Projected 2011/12  MVA (Beg. of Year) $ 24,616 $ 32,042 $ 40,213 $ 44,774  Contributions 700 3,532 2,448 5,165  Benefit Payments13 - - - -  Admin. Expenses (23) (34) (41) -  Investment Return 6,749 4,674 2,155 3,24614  MVA (End of Year) 32,042 40,213 44,774 53,185  Approx. Annual Return 26.9% 13.7% 5.3% 7.3% 13 Benefit Payments made outside of trust by City. Refer to Slide 3 for fiscal year amounts. 14 Investment return based on 7.25% net of expenses October 11, 2011 18 ASSETS Actuarial Value of Plan Assets (amounts in 000’s) 2009 2010 1/1/11- 6/30/11 Projected 2011/12  AVA (Beg. of Year) $ 24,616 $ 28,209 $ 35,294 $ 40,222  Contributions 700 3,532 2,448 5,165  Benefit Payments15 - - - -  Exp. Inv. Return 1,935 2,323 1,342 2,916  Exp. AVA (End of Year) 27,251 34,064 39,084 48,303  Preliminary AVA 28,209 35,294 40,222 49,279  Min AVA (80% MVA) 25,633 32,170 35,819 42,548  Max AVA (120% MVA) 38,450 48,255 53,729 63,822  AVA (End of Year) 28,209 35,294 40,222 49,279  Approx. Annual Return 11.6% 11.9% 7.0% 9.7% 15 Benefit Payments made outside of trust by City. Refer to Slide 3 for fiscal year amounts. 2.b Packet Pg. 63 -: A t t a c h m e n t B : R e v i s e d P r e l i m i n a r y R e s u l t s ( 2 1 8 0 : R e t i r e e M e d i c a l S t u d y ) October 11, 2011 19 RESULTS – JANUARY 1, 2011 VALUATION Funded Status – 7.75% Discount Rate (Amounts in 000’s) 1/1/0916 1/1/11 Projected 6/30/11  Present Value of Benefits  Actives $ 78,831 $ 85,476  Retirees 78,384 118,800  Total 157,215 204,276  Actuarial Accrued Liability  Actives 51,277 51,179  Retirees 78,384 118,800  Total 129,661 169,979 $ 174,485  Actuarial Value of Assets (AVA) 24,616 35,294 40,222  Unfunded AAL 105,045 134,685 134,263  Funded Ratio 19% 21%  Normal Cost 3,478 4,937  Pay-As-You-Go Cost 6,075 8,438 16 From 1/1/09 report by Milliman. October 11, 2011 20 RESULTS – JANUARY 1, 2011 VALUATION Actuarial Gain/Loss – 7.75% Discount Rate (000’s Omitted) AAL (AVA) UAAL  Actual 1/1/09 $129,661 $(24,616) $105,045  Expected 6/30/11 150,971 (42,322) 108,649  Assumption Changes  Medical Trend 4,840 4,840  New CalPERS Decrements 7,916 7,916  Actuarial Load 3,421 3,421  Medical Plan at Retirement 7,740 7,740  Medicare Eligibility 2,625 2,625  Asset Smoothing 4,552 4,552  Contribution Loss (2,452) (2,452)  Plan Change – Cost Sharing (14,194) (14,194)  Experience (Gains)/Losses  Caps/Premiums < Expected (3,917) (3,917)  New Retirees 2,700 2,700  Demographic & Other 12,383 - 12,383  Total (Gain)/Loss 23,514 2,100 25,614  Projected 6/30/11 174,485 (40,222) 134,263 2.b Packet Pg. 64 -: A t t a c h m e n t B : R e v i s e d P r e l i m i n a r y R e s u l t s ( 2 1 8 0 : R e t i r e e M e d i c a l S t u d y ) October 11, 2011 21 RESULTS – JANUARY 1, 2011 VALUATION Annual Required Contribution (ARC) – 7.75% Discount Rate (Amounts in 000’s) 1/1/09 Valuation 1/1/11 Valuation Annual Required Contribution 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12  ARC - $  Normal Cost $ 3,478 $ 3,591 $ 4,937  UAAL Amortization 6,308 6,757 8,666  Total 9,786 10,348 13,603  Projected Payroll 98,940 102,156 80,664  ARC - % Pay  Normal Cost 3.5% 3.5% 6.1%  UAAL Amortization 6.4% 6.6% 10.7%  Total 9.9% 10.1% 16.9% October 11, 2011 22 RESULTS – JANUARY 1, 2011 VALUATION Estimated Net OPEB Obligation (NOO) Illustration – 7.75% Discount Rate (Amounts in 000’s) Estimated Net OPEB Obligation (Asset) CAFR 2009/10 Estimate 2010/11 Estimate 2011/12  NOO at Beginning of Year $(26,352) $(23,242) $(22,977)  Annual OPEB Cost  Annual Required Contribution 9,786 10,349 13,603  Interest on NOO (2,042) (1,801) (1,781)  NOO Adjustment 2,585 2,213 1,483  Annual OPEB Cost 10,329 10,760 13,306  Contributions  Benefit Payments Outside Trust17 5,519 6,216 8,438  Trust Funding 1,70018 4,280 5,165  Total Contributions 7,219 10,496 13,603  NOO at End of Year (23,242) (22,977) (23,275) 17 Estimated cash payments shown for years after 2010/11. Actual cash payments should be used for OPEB footnote. 18 Shortly after year end, the City contributed another $1.832 million to the trust 2.b Packet Pg. 65 -: A t t a c h m e n t B : R e v i s e d P r e l i m i n a r y R e s u l t s ( 2 1 8 0 : R e t i r e e M e d i c a l S t u d y ) October 11, 2011 23 RESULTS – JANUARY 1, 2011 VALUATION Amortization Bases – 7.75% Discount Rate (000’s Omitted) 1/1/2009 Valuation 1/1/2011 Valuation 6/30/2009 6/30/2010 6/30/2011  Outstanding Balance  2009 UAAL $ 105,045 $ 106,878 $ n/a  2010 Gains & Losses - 2,567 n/a  2011 Fresh Start UAAL - - 134,263  Total 105,045 109,445 134,263 October 11, 2011 24 RESULTS – JANUARY 1, 2011 VALUATION Amortization Payments – 7.75% Discount Rate (000’s Omitted) 1/1/2009 Valuation 1/1/2011 Valuation 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12  Amortization Payment - $  2009 UAAL19 $ 6,308 $ 6,513 $ n/a  2010 Gains & Losses - 244 n/a  2011 Fresh Start UAAL20 - - 8,666  Total 6,308 6,757 8,666 19 Amortized over 30 years beginning 2009/10 20 Amortized over 28 years beginning 2011/12 2.b Packet Pg. 66 -: A t t a c h m e n t B : R e v i s e d P r e l i m i n a r y R e s u l t s ( 2 1 8 0 : R e t i r e e M e d i c a l S t u d y ) October 11, 2011 25 RESULTS – JANUARY 1, 2011 VALUATION Actuarial Obligations – 7.75% Discount Rate January 1, 2011 (Amounts in 000’s) Benefits < Age 65 Benefits > Age 65 Total  Present Value of Benefits  Actives $ 45,464 $ 40,013 $ 85,476  Retirees 37,577 81,223 118,800  Total 83,041 121,236 204,276  Actuarial Accrued Liability  Actives 26,106 25,074 51,179  Retirees 37,577 81,223 118,800  Total 63,683 106,297 169,979  Normal Cost 2,711 2,226 4,937 October 11, 2011 26 RESULTS – JANUARY 1, 2011 VALUATION This page intentionally blank 2.b Packet Pg. 67 -: A t t a c h m e n t B : R e v i s e d P r e l i m i n a r y R e s u l t s ( 2 1 8 0 : R e t i r e e M e d i c a l S t u d y ) October 11, 2011 27 RESULTS – JANUARY 1, 2011 VALUATION Actuarial Obligations – 7.75% Discount Rate January 1, 2011 (Amounts in 000’s) Misc Police Fire Total  Present Value of Benefits  Actives $ 54,725 $ 12,832 $ 17,919 $ 85,476  Retirees 86,109 14,722 17,969 118,800  Total 140,834 27,554 35,888 204,276  Actuarial Accrued Liability  Actives 33,204 6,496 11,479 51,179  Retirees 86,109 14,722 17,969 118,800  Total 119,313 21,218 29,448 169,979  Actuarial Value of Assets21 24,774 4,406 6,114 35,294  Unfunded AAL 94,539 16,812 23,334 134,685  Normal Cost 3,381 719 836 4,937  Pay-As-You-Go Cost 6,285 935 1,218 8,438 21 Allocated in proportion to the Actuarial Accrued Liability. October 11, 2011 28 RESULTS – JANUARY 1, 2011 VALUATION Annual Required Contribution (ARC) – 7.75% Discount Rate 2011/12 Fiscal Year (Amounts in 000’s) Misc Police Fire Total  ARC - $  Normal Cost $ 3,381 $ 719 $ 836 $ 4,937  UAAL Amortization22 6,072 1,087 1,507 8,666  ARC 9,453 1,807 2,344 13,603  Projected Payroll 58,983 9,826 11,855 80,664  ARC - %  Normal Cost 5.7% 7.3% 7.1% 6.1%  UAAL Amortization 10.3% 11.1% 12.7% 10.7%  ARC 16.0% 18.4% 19.8% 16.9% 22 Allocated in proportion to the Actuarial Accrued Liability. 2.b Packet Pg. 68 -: A t t a c h m e n t B : R e v i s e d P r e l i m i n a r y R e s u l t s ( 2 1 8 0 : R e t i r e e M e d i c a l S t u d y ) October 11, 2011 29 RESULTS – JUNE 30, 2011 VALUATION Actuarial Obligations (Amounts in 000’s) 1/1/11 Valuation 6/30/11 Valuation 1/1/11 Projected 6/30/11 6/30/11 Projected 6/30/12 7.75% 7.25%  Present Value of Benefits  Actives $ 85,476 $ 96,769  Retirees 118,800 122,444  Total 204,276 219,213  Actuarial Accrued Liability  Actives 51,179 57,479  Retirees 118,800 122,444  Total 169,979 $ 174,485 179,923 $ 189,943  Actuarial Value of Assets 35,294 40,222 40,222 49,279  Unfunded AAL 134,685 134,263 139,701 140,663  Funded Ratio 21% 22%  Normal Cost 4,937 5,609  Pay-As-You-Go Cost 8,438 9,986 October 11, 2011 30 RESULTS – JUNE 30, 2011 VALUATION Actuarial Gain/Loss (000’s Omitted) AAL (AVA) UAAL  Actual 1/1/11 $169,979 $(35,294) $134,685  Projected 6/30/11 174,485 (40,222) 134,263  Expected 6/30/12 182,840 (49,279) 133,561  Assumption Changes  Discount Rate 10,613 10,613  Experience (Gains)/Losses  Demographic & Other (3,510) (3,510)  Total (Gain)/Loss 7,103 - 7,103  Projected 6/30/12 189,943 (49,279) 140,663 2.b Packet Pg. 69 -: A t t a c h m e n t B : R e v i s e d P r e l i m i n a r y R e s u l t s ( 2 1 8 0 : R e t i r e e M e d i c a l S t u d y ) October 11, 2011 31 RESULTS – JUNE 30, 2011 VALUATION Annual Required Contribution (ARC) (Amounts in 000’s) 1/1/11 Valuation 6/30/11 Valuation Annual Required Contribution 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 7.75% 7.25%  ARC - $  Normal Cost $ 4,937 $ 5,609 $ 5,791  UAAL Amortization 8,666 8,769 9,054  Total 13,603 14,378 14,845  Projected Payroll 80,664 83,285 85,992  ARC - %Pay  Normal Cost 6.1% 6.7% 6.7%  UAAL Amortization 10.7% 10.6%10.6%  Total 16.9% 17.3% 17.3% October 11, 2011 32 RESULTS – JUNE 30, 2011 VALUATION This page intentionally blank 2.b Packet Pg. 70 -: A t t a c h m e n t B : R e v i s e d P r e l i m i n a r y R e s u l t s ( 2 1 8 0 : R e t i r e e M e d i c a l S t u d y ) October 11, 2011 33 RESULTS – JUNE 30, 2011 VALUATION Amortization Bases (000’s Omitted) 1/1/2011 Valuation 6/30/2011 Valuation 6/30/2011 6/30/2012 6/30/2013 7.75% 7.25%  Outstanding Balance  2011 Fresh Start UAAL $ 134,263 $ 140,663 $ 142,093  Total 134,263 140,663 142,093 October 11, 2011 34 RESULTS – JUNE 30, 2011 VALUATION Amortization Payments (000’s Omitted) 1/1/2011 Valuation 6/30/2011 Valuation 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 7.75% 7.25%  Amortization Payment - $  2011 Fresh Start UAAL23 $ 8,666 $ 8,769 $ 9,054  Total 8,666 8,769 9,054 23 Amortized over 28 years beginning 2011/12 2.b Packet Pg. 71 -: A t t a c h m e n t B : R e v i s e d P r e l i m i n a r y R e s u l t s ( 2 1 8 0 : R e t i r e e M e d i c a l S t u d y ) October 11, 2011 35 RESULTS – JUNE 30, 2011 VALUATION Estimated Net OPEB Obligation (NOO) Illustration (Amounts in 000’s) 1/1/11 Valuation 6/30/11 Valuation Estimated Net OPEB Obligation (Asset) Estimate 2011/12 Estimate 2012/13 Estimate 2013/14  NOO at Beginning of Year $(22,977) $(23,275) $(23,511)  Annual OPEB Cost  Annual Required Contribution 13,603 14,378 14,845  Interest on NOO (1,781) (1,687) (1,705)  NOO Adjustment 1,483 1,451 1,498  Annual OPEB Cost 13,305 14,141 14,638  Contributions  Benefit Payments Outside Trust24 8,438 8,988 9,986  Trust Funding 5,165 5,390 4,859  Total Contributions 13,603 14,378 14,845  NOO at End of Year (23,275) (23,511) (23,718) 24 Estimated cash payments shown for all years. Actual cash payments should be used for OPEB footnote. October 11, 2011 36 RESULTS – JUNE 30, 2011 VALUATION Estimated Full ARC Funding Projection – 7.25% Discount Rate25 (Amounts in 000’s) Contribution Fiscal Year End Begin Year NOO ARC Annual OPEB Cost (AOC) Benefit Pmts Pre- Funding Total Contrib Pay Contrib % of Payroll 2012 $(22,977) $13,603 $13,305 $8,438 $5,165 $13,603 $80,664 16.9% 2013 (23,275) 14,378 14,141 8,988 5,390 14,378 83,285 17.3% 2014 (23,511) 14,845 14,638 9,986 4,859 14,845 85,992 17.3% 2015 (23,718) 15,327 15,155 10,929 4,398 15,327 88,787 17.3% 2016 (23,891) 15,825 15,690 11,945 3,880 15,825 91,672 17.3% 2017 (24,026) 16,340 16,247 12,940 3,400 16,340 94,652 17.3% 2018 (24,119) 16,871 16,825 13,832 3,039 16,871 97,728 17.3% 2019 (24,165) 17,419 17,425 14,692 2,727 17,419 100,904 17.3% 2020 (24,159) 17,985 18,049 15,574 2,412 17,985 104,183 17.3% 2021 (24,095) 18,570 18,697 16,460 2,110 18,570 107,569 17.3% 25 Fiscal year ending 2012 based on prior valuation with 7.75% discount rate. 2.b Packet Pg. 72 -: A t t a c h m e n t B : R e v i s e d P r e l i m i n a r y R e s u l t s ( 2 1 8 0 : R e t i r e e M e d i c a l S t u d y ) October 11, 2011 37 RESULTS – JUNE 30, 2011 VALUATION Actuarial Obligations – 7.25% Discount Rate June 30, 2011 (Amounts in 000’s) Benefits < Age 65 Benefits > Age 65 Total  Present Value of Benefits  Actives $ 49,568 $ 47,201 $ 96,769  Retirees 36,082 86,361 122,444  Total 85,650 133,562 219,213  Actuarial Accrued Liability  Actives 28,139 29,340 57,479  Retirees 36,082 86,361 122,444  Total 64,221 115,701 179,923  Normal Cost 2,978 2,631 5,609 October 11, 2011 38 RESULTS – JUNE 30, 2011 VALUATION Actuarial Obligations – 7.25% Discount Rate June 30, 2011 (Amounts in 000’s) Misc Police Fire Total  Present Value of Benefits  Actives $ 61,777 $ 14,823 $ 20,168 $ 96,769  Retirees 88,563 15,240 18,641 122,444  Total 150,340 30,063 38,809 219,213  Actuarial Accrued Liability  Actives 37,268 7,445 12,766 57,479  Retirees 88,563 15,240 18,641 122,444  Total 125,831 22,685 31,407 179,923  Actuarial Value of Assets26 28,129 5,071 7,021 40,222  Unfunded AAL 97,702 17,614 24,386 139,701  Normal Cost 3,823 825 960 5,609  Pay-As-You-Go Cost 7,385 1,132 1,469 9,986 26 Allocated in proportion to the Actuarial Accrued Liability. 2.b Packet Pg. 73 -: A t t a c h m e n t B : R e v i s e d P r e l i m i n a r y R e s u l t s ( 2 1 8 0 : R e t i r e e M e d i c a l S t u d y ) October 11, 2011 39 RESULTS – JUNE 30, 2011 VALUATION Annual Required Contribution (ARC) – 7.25% Discount Rate 2012/13 Fiscal Year (Amounts in 000’s) Misc Police Fire Total  ARC - $  Normal Cost $ 3,823 $ 825 $ 960 $ 5,609  UAAL Amortization27 6,111 1,116 1,541 8,769  ARC 9,934 1,941 2,501 14,378  Projected Payroll 60,900 10,145 12,240 83,285  ARC - %  Normal Cost 6.3% 8.1% 7.8% 6.7%  UAAL Amortization 10.0% 11.0% 12.6% 10.5%  ARC 16.3% 19.1% 20.4% 17.3% 27 Allocated in proportion to the Actuarial Accrued Liability. October 11, 2011 40 RESULTS – JUNE 30, 2011 VALUATION This page intentionally blank 2.b Packet Pg. 74 -: A t t a c h m e n t B : R e v i s e d P r e l i m i n a r y R e s u l t s ( 2 1 8 0 : R e t i r e e M e d i c a l S t u d y ) October 11, 2011 41 CERBT INVESTMENT OPTIONS  Additional CERBT asset allocations and revised discount rate assumption  Agency selects one option effective July 1, 2011  Target asset allocations Asset Classifications Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 Global Equity 66.0% 50.1% 31.6% US Nominal Bonds 18.0% 23.9% 42.4% REIT's 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% U.S. Inflation Linked Bonds 5.0% 15.0% 15.0% Commodities 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%  CalPERS reported expected returns (20 year period): Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 75% Confidence Limit28 5.80% 5.60% 5.25% 50% Confidence Limit 7.61% 7.06% 6.39% 25% Confidence Limit 9.43% 8.52% 7.47% Standard Deviation 11.73% 9.46% 7.27% 28 Confidence Limits – Actual Return will exceed the given rate with indicated probabilities, rates vary by year. October 11, 2011 42 CERBT INVESTMENT OPTIONS  CalPERS discount rate development:  1st 10 year expected returns – based on asset advisors 10 year projections  Significantly higher returns assumed after 10 years  based on long term historical returns  implies actuarial losses in 1st 10 years  achievable?  Requirement that discount rate cannot be greater than 50% confidence limit rate  Bartel Associates Recommendation: select rate at 55% or 60% confidence limit Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 55% Confidence Limit Discount Rate 7.25% 6.75% 6.25% Maximum Discount Rate 7.61% 7.06% 6.39% Margin for Adverse Deviation (0.36%) (0.31%) (0.14%) 60% Confidence Limit Discount Rate 7.00% 6.50% 6.00% Maximum Discount Rate 7.61% 7.06% 6.39% Margin for Adverse Deviation (0.61%) (0.56%) (0.39%) 2.b Packet Pg. 75 -: A t t a c h m e n t B : R e v i s e d P r e l i m i n a r y R e s u l t s ( 2 1 8 0 : R e t i r e e M e d i c a l S t u d y ) October 11, 2011 43 BARTEL ASSOCIATES GASB 45 DATABASE 50% of 90% of 100% ofresults results results are are arewithin within within this this thisrange range range 0th Percentile GASB 45 50th Percentile 100th Percentile Sample Percentile Graph Retiree Medical Benefits Comparison 95th Percentile 5th Percentile 75th Percentile 25th Percentile 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% Per c e n t o f P a y October 11, 2011 44 BARTEL ASSOCIATES GASB 45 DATABASE Miscellaneous NC ARC NC ARC 95th Percentile 11.7% 31.4%11.9% 32.2% 75th Percentile 7.5% 19.4%7.0% 20.5% 50th Percentile 3.6% 8.9%2.9% 10.2% 25th Percentile 1.3% 3.3%1.4% 3.6% 5th Percentile 0.6% 1.3%0.7% 1.8% Percent of Pay 6.3% 16.3%8.0% 19.9% Percentile 67% 67%82% 73% Safety Discount Rate = 7.25%, Amortization Period = 27 Years GASB 45 Retiree Medical Benefits Comparison Normal Cost & Annual Required Contribution -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Per c e n t o f P a y 2.b Packet Pg. 76 -: A t t a c h m e n t B : R e v i s e d P r e l i m i n a r y R e s u l t s ( 2 1 8 0 : R e t i r e e M e d i c a l S t u d y ) October 11, 2011 45 BARTEL ASSOCIATES GASB 45 DATABASE 95th Percentile 251%275% 75th Percentile 151%166% 50th Percentile 74%87% 25th Percentile 23%28% 5th Percentile 8%12% Percent of Pay 207%242% Percentile 89%92% Miscellaneous Safety Discount Rate = 7.25% GASB 45 Retiree Medical Benefits Comparison Actuarial Accrued Liability 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350% 400% 450% 500% Per c e n t o f P a y October 11, 2011 46 OTHER ISSUES  GASB Pension Accounting  Exposure Draft for pension accounting changes issued 7/8/2011:  Usually the last public document issued before issuing final statement  Similar views expected for OPEB  Comment deadline 9/30/11  Likely effective for 2013/14 fiscal year  Major issues:  Unfunded liability on balance sheet  Lower discount rate if funding less than ARC  Immediate recognition of:  Service & Interest Cost  Benefit changes  Inactive gains/losses & assumption changes  Deferred recognition of:  Active gains/losses & assumption changes, over (future working lifetime) closed period  Asset gains/losses, over 5 years  Entry age normal cost method  National Health Care Reform – Too early to know impact 2.b Packet Pg. 77 -: A t t a c h m e n t B : R e v i s e d P r e l i m i n a r y R e s u l t s ( 2 1 8 0 : R e t i r e e M e d i c a l S t u d y ) October 11, 2011 47 OTHER ISSUES  Timing:  Present preliminary results September 26, 2011  Present revised preliminary results October 11, 2011 October 11, 2011 48 EXHIBITS Topic Page Premiums E- 1 Data Summary E- 3 Actuarial Assumptions E-29 Definitions E-36 2.b Packet Pg. 78 -: A t t a c h m e n t B : R e v i s e d P r e l i m i n a r y R e s u l t s ( 2 1 8 0 : R e t i r e e M e d i c a l S t u d y ) October 11, 2011 E-1 PREMIUMS 2011 PEMHCA Monthly Premiums Bay Area Non-Medicare Eligible Medicare Eligible Medical Plan Single 2-Party Family Single 2-Party Family Blue Shield $675.51 $1,351.02 $1,756.33 $337.88 $675.76 $1,013.64 Blue Shield NetValue 581.24 1,162.48 1,511.22 337.88 675.76 1,013.64 Kaiser 568.99 1,137.98 1,479.37 282.30 564.60 846.90 PERS Choice 563.40 1,126.80 1,464.84 375.88 751.76 1,127.64 PERS Select 492.68 985.36 1,280.97 375.88 751.76 1,127.64 PERSCare 893.95 1,787.90 2,324.27 433.66 867.32 1,300.98 PORAC 527.00 987.00 1,254.00 418.00 833.00 1,331.00 October 11, 2011 E-2 PREMIUMS 2012 PEMHCA Monthly Premiums Bay Area Non-Medicare Eligible Medicare Eligible Medical Plan Single 2-Party Family Single 2-Party Family Blue Shield Access+ $711.10 $1,422.20 $1,848.86 $337.99 $675.98 $1,013.97 Blue Shield NetValue 611.59 1,223.18 1,590.13 337.99 675.98 1,013.97 Kaiser 610.44 1,220.88 1,587.14 277.81 555.62 833.43 PERS Choice 574.15 1,148.30 1,492.79 383.44 766.88 1,150.32 PERS Select 487.39 974.78 1,267.21 383.44 766.88 1,150.32 PERSCare 1,029.23 2,058.46 2,676.00 432.43 864.86 1,297.29 PORAC 556.00 1,041.00 1,323.00 418.00 833.00 1,331.00 2.b Packet Pg. 79 -: A t t a c h m e n t B : R e v i s e d P r e l i m i n a r y R e s u l t s ( 2 1 8 0 : R e t i r e e M e d i c a l S t u d y ) October 11, 2011 E-3 DATA SUMMARY Active Medical Coverage Bay Area Plans Medical Plan Single 2-Party Family Waived Total Blue Shield 90 68 210 - 368 Blue Shield NetValue 2 1 1 - 4 Kaiser 74 65 151 - 290 PERS Choice 22 39 47 - 108 PERSCare - - 1 - 1 PORAC 12 7 54 - 73 Waived - - - 79 79 Total 200 180 464 79 923 October 11, 2011 E-4 DATA SUMMARY Retiree Medical Coverage - Under Age 65 Plan Region Single 2-Party Family Total Bay Area 48 42 25 115 Los Angeles 1 - - 1 Northern CA - 1 1 2 Sacramento 4 3 1 8 Blue Shield Southern CA - 1 - 1 Bay Area 37 26 11 74 Northern CA 2 1 3 6 Out of State - 5 1 6 Sacramento 3 3 - 6 Kaiser Southern CA 2 1 1 4 Bay Area 22 19 7 48 Northern CA 3 2 - 5 Out of State 7 13 2 22 Sacramento 1 - - 1 PERS Choice Southern CA 2 - - 2 Bay Area 11 5 2 18 Northern CA 1 2 - 3 Out of State 13 2 - 15 Sacramento 2 - 1 3 PERSCare Southern CA 1 - - 1 PORAC 10 14 12 36 Total 170 140 67 377 2.b Packet Pg. 80 -: A t t a c h m e n t B : R e v i s e d P r e l i m i n a r y R e s u l t s ( 2 1 8 0 : R e t i r e e M e d i c a l S t u d y ) October 11, 2011 E-5 DATA SUMMARY Retiree Medical Coverage - Over Age 65 Plan Region Single 2-Party Family Total Bay Area 53 40 2 95 Northern CA - 2 - 2 Sacramento 1 - - 1 Blue Shield Southern CA 2 3 - 5 Blue Shield NetValue Southern CA 1 - - 1 Bay Area 44 42 6 92 Northern CA 2 2 - 4 Out of State 4 3 - 7 Sacramento 6 6 1 13 Kaiser Southern CA 1 - - 1 Bay Area 14 21 - 35 Los Angeles 1 - - 1 Northern CA 3 5 1 9 Out of State 12 17 2 31 Sacramento 1 3 - 4 PERS Choice Southern CA 4 1 - 5 Bay Area 47 34 - 81 Northern CA 9 7 - 16 Out of State 41 19 2 62 Sacramento 3 4 - 7 PERSCare Southern CA 5 3 - 8 PORAC 1 1 1 3 Total 255 213 15 483 October 11, 2011 E-6 DATA SUMMARY Medical Plan Participation Non-Waived Participants Retirees Medical Plan Actives < 65 ≥ 65 Total Blue Shield 44% 34% 21% 27% Blue Shield NetValue 0% 0% 0% 0% Kaiser 34% 25% 24% 25% PERS Choice 13% 21% 18% 19% PERSCare 0% 11% 36% 25% PORAC 9% 10% 1% 5% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 2.b Packet Pg. 81 -: A t t a c h m e n t B : R e v i s e d P r e l i m i n a r y R e s u l t s ( 2 1 8 0 : R e t i r e e M e d i c a l S t u d y ) October 11, 2011 E-7 DATA SUMMARY Retiree Medical Coverage by Age Group Miscellaneous Age Single 2-Party Family Total Under 50 2 - 2 4 50-54 20 17 8 45 55-59 55 38 17 110 60-64 61 62 14 137 65-69 58 68 5 131 70-74 55 41 1 97 75-79 32 23 - 55 80-84 24 15 1 40 Over 85 28 12 - 40 Total 335 276 48 659 Average Age 68.7 67.4 59.5 67.5 October 11, 2011 E-8 DATA SUMMARY Retiree Age Distribution Miscellaneous 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 <50 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 ≥85 Age Nu m b e r 2.b Packet Pg. 82 -: A t t a c h m e n t B : R e v i s e d P r e l i m i n a r y R e s u l t s ( 2 1 8 0 : R e t i r e e M e d i c a l S t u d y ) October 11, 2011 E-9 DATA SUMMARY Retiree Medical Coverage by Age Group Police Age Single 2-Party Family Total Under 50 5 3 1 9 50-54 6 3 4 13 55-59 8 5 4 17 60-64 8 6 2 16 65-69 6 3 1 10 70-74 5 1 - 6 75-79 4 2 - 6 80-84 4 4 - 8 Over 85 2 - - 2 Total 48 27 12 87 Average Age 64.8 62.7 56.5 63.0 October 11, 2011 E-10 DATA SUMMARY Retiree Age Distribution Police 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 <50 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 ≥85 Age Nu m b e r 2.b Packet Pg. 83 -: A t t a c h m e n t B : R e v i s e d P r e l i m i n a r y R e s u l t s ( 2 1 8 0 : R e t i r e e M e d i c a l S t u d y ) October 11, 2011 E-11 DATA SUMMARY Retiree Medical Coverage by Age Group Fire Age Single 2-Party Family Total Under 50 1 1 3 5 50-54 1 2 10 13 55-59 5 2 4 11 60-64 7 8 3 18 65-69 4 8 2 14 70-74 11 16 - 27 75-79 5 8 - 13 80-84 4 4 - 8 Over 85 4 1 - 5 Total 42 50 22 114 Average Age 70.6 69.8 55.0 67.2 October 11, 2011 E-12 DATA SUMMARY Retiree Age Distribution Fire 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 <50 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 ≥85 Age Nu m b e r 2.b Packet Pg. 84 -: A t t a c h m e n t B : R e v i s e d P r e l i m i n a r y R e s u l t s ( 2 1 8 0 : R e t i r e e M e d i c a l S t u d y ) October 11, 2011 E-13 DATA SUMMARY Actives by Age and Service Miscellaneous City Service Age < 1 1-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 ≥ 25 Total < 25 1 2 1 - - - - 4 25-29 9 22 11 2 - - - 44 30-34 7 39 23 16 4 - - 89 35-39 6 25 25 23 3 - - 82 40-44 3 24 21 31 14 3 - 96 45-49 4 31 17 46 34 23 5 160 50-54 7 20 23 31 23 15 14 133 55-59 1 13 11 25 11 10 4 75 60-64 - 8 4 13 8 7 - 40 ≥ 65 - - 2 3 4 1 4 14 Total 38 184 138 190 101 59 27 737 October 11, 2011 E-14 DATA SUMMARY This page intentionally blank 2.b Packet Pg. 85 -: A t t a c h m e n t B : R e v i s e d P r e l i m i n a r y R e s u l t s ( 2 1 8 0 : R e t i r e e M e d i c a l S t u d y ) October 11, 2011 E-15 DATA SUMMARY Active Age Distribution Miscellaneous 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 <25 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-65 ≥65 Age Nu m b e r October 11, 2011 E-16 DATA SUMMARY Active Service Distribution Miscellaneous 0 50 100 150 200 250 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 >25 Service Nu m b e r 2.b Packet Pg. 86 -: A t t a c h m e n t B : R e v i s e d P r e l i m i n a r y R e s u l t s ( 2 1 8 0 : R e t i r e e M e d i c a l S t u d y ) October 11, 2011 E-17 DATA SUMMARY Actives by Age and Service Police City Service Age < 1 1-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 ≥ 25 Total < 25 - 2 - - - - - 2 25-29 1 6 2 - - - - 9 30-34 1 10 9 1 - - - 21 35-39 - 3 6 7 2 1 - 19 40-44 - - 3 1 4 1 - 9 45-49 - - 1 2 6 4 4 17 50-54 - 1 1 1 - 1 1 5 55-59 - - - - - - - - 60-64 - - - - - - - - ≥ 65 - - - - - - - - Total 2 22 22 12 12 7 5 82 October 11, 2011 E-18 DATA SUMMARY This page intentionally blank 2.b Packet Pg. 87 -: A t t a c h m e n t B : R e v i s e d P r e l i m i n a r y R e s u l t s ( 2 1 8 0 : R e t i r e e M e d i c a l S t u d y ) October 11, 2011 E-19 DATA SUMMARY Active Age Distribution Police 0 5 10 15 20 25 <25 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-65 ≥65 Age Nu m b e r October 11, 2011 E-20 DATA SUMMARY Active Service Distribution Police 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 >25 Service Nu m b e r 2.b Packet Pg. 88 -: A t t a c h m e n t B : R e v i s e d P r e l i m i n a r y R e s u l t s ( 2 1 8 0 : R e t i r e e M e d i c a l S t u d y ) October 11, 2011 E-21 DATA SUMMARY Actives by Age and Service Fire City Service Age < 1 1-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 ≥ 25 Total < 25 1 2 - - - - - 3 25-29 - 3 2 - - - - 5 30-34 2 3 4 - - - - 9 35-39 - 4 4 10 1 - - 19 40-44 - - 4 9 3 1 - 17 45-49 - 1 4 7 6 13 2 33 50-54 - - - 2 - 5 7 14 55-59 - - - 1 - - 1 2 60-64 - - - - - 1 1 2 ≥ 65 - - - - - - - - Total 3 13 18 29 10 20 11 104 October 11, 2011 E-22 DATA SUMMARY This page intentionally blank 2.b Packet Pg. 89 -: A t t a c h m e n t B : R e v i s e d P r e l i m i n a r y R e s u l t s ( 2 1 8 0 : R e t i r e e M e d i c a l S t u d y ) October 11, 2011 E-23 DATA SUMMARY Active Age Distribution Fire 0 5 10 15 20 25 <25 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-65 ≥65 Age Nu m b e r October 11, 2011 E-24 DATA SUMMARY Active Service Distribution Fire 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 >25 Service Nu m b e r 2.b Packet Pg. 90 -: A t t a c h m e n t B : R e v i s e d P r e l i m i n a r y R e s u l t s ( 2 1 8 0 : R e t i r e e M e d i c a l S t u d y ) October 11, 2011 E-25 DATA SUMMARY Actives by Age and Service Total City Service Age < 1 1-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 ≥ 25 Total < 25 2 6 1 - - - - 9 25-29 10 31 15 2 - - - 58 30-34 10 52 36 17 4 - - 119 35-39 6 32 35 40 6 1 - 120 40-44 3 24 28 41 21 5 - 122 45-49 4 32 22 55 46 40 11 210 50-54 7 21 24 34 23 21 22 152 55-59 1 13 11 26 11 10 5 77 60-64 - 8 4 13 8 8 1 42 ≥ 65 - - 2 3 4 1 4 14 Total 43 219 178 231 123 86 43 923 October 11, 2011 E-26 DATA SUMMARY This page intentionally blank 2.b Packet Pg. 91 -: A t t a c h m e n t B : R e v i s e d P r e l i m i n a r y R e s u l t s ( 2 1 8 0 : R e t i r e e M e d i c a l S t u d y ) October 11, 2011 E-27 DATA SUMMARY Active Age Distribution Total 0 50 100 150 200 250 <25 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-65 ≥65 Age Nu m b e r October 11, 2011 E-28 DATA SUMMARY Active Service Distribution Total 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 >25 Service Nu m b e r 2.b Packet Pg. 92 -: A t t a c h m e n t B : R e v i s e d P r e l i m i n a r y R e s u l t s ( 2 1 8 0 : R e t i r e e M e d i c a l S t u d y ) October 11, 2011 E-29 ACTUARIAL ASSUMPTIONS January 1, 2009 Valuation29 January 1, 2011 & June 30, 2011 Valuations  Valuation Date  January 1, 2009  Fiscal Years 2009/10 & 2010/11 ARCs (end of year)  January 1, 2011  Fiscal Year 2011/12 ARC (end of year)  June 30, 2011  Fiscal Years 2012/13 & 2013/14 ARCs (end of year)  Funding Policy  Full Pre-funding through CalPERS trust (CERBT)  Same  General Inflation  3.00%  Same  Discount Rate  7.75%  1/1/11 – 7.75%  6/30/11 – 7.25% 29 From 1/1/09 Milliman report October 11, 2011 E-30 ACTUARIAL ASSUMPTIONS January 1, 2009 Valuation29 January 1, 2011 & June 30, 2011 Valuations  Payroll Increases  Aggregate Increases – 3.25%  Merit Increases – CalPERS 1997-2002 Experience Study  Aggregate Increases – 3.25%  Merit Increases – CalPERS 1997-2007 Experience Study  Medical Trend Year Increase from Prior Year 2009 Premiums 2010 6.50% 2011 6.50% 2012 6.50% 2013 6.50% 2014 6.50% 2015 6.00% 2016 6.00% 2017 6.00% 2018+ 5.85% Increase from Prior Year Year Non-Medicare Medicare 2009 n/a 2010 n/a 2011 Premiums 2012 Premiums 2013 9.0% 9.4% 2014 8.5% 8.9% 2015 8.0% 8.3% 2016 7.5% 7.8% 2017 7.0% 7.2% 2018 6.5% 6.7% 2019 6.0% 6.1% 2020 5.5% 5.6% 2021+ 5.0% 5.0% 2.b Packet Pg. 93 -: A t t a c h m e n t B : R e v i s e d P r e l i m i n a r y R e s u l t s ( 2 1 8 0 : R e t i r e e M e d i c a l S t u d y ) October 11, 2011 E-31 ACTUARIAL ASSUMPTIONS January 1, 2009 Valuation29 January 1, 2011 & June 30, 2011 Valuations  Actuarial Load  n/a  2.0% load  PEMHCA PPO premium increases below per capita claims increases  Mortality, Termination, Disability  CalPERS 1997-2002 Experience Study  CalPERS 1997-2007 Experience Study  Retirement  CalPERS 1997-2002 Experience Study Misc Fire Police Benefit 2.7%@55 3%@50 3%@50  CalPERS 1997-2007 Experience Study Misc Fire Police Benefit 2.7%@55 3%@50 3%@50 2%@6030 ERA 57.5 54.5 54.0 30 Applies to employees hired after July 17, 2010 October 11, 2011 E-32 ACTUARIAL ASSUMPTIONS January 1, 2009 Valuation29 January 1, 2011 & June 30, 2011 Valuations  Participation at Retirement  n/a  Hired < 1/1/04: 100%  Hired > 1/1/04: 95%  Employees with cost sharing: reduce above %’s by 5%  Medical Plan at Retirement  n/a  Miscellaneous: <65 65+ Blue Shield 35% 20% Kaiser 25% 25% PERS Choice 30% 20% PERSCare 10% 35%  Safety: <65 65+ Blue Shield 35% 20% Kaiser 25% 25% PERS Choice 20% 20% PERSCare 10% 35% PORAC 10% 0% 2.b Packet Pg. 94 -: A t t a c h m e n t B : R e v i s e d P r e l i m i n a r y R e s u l t s ( 2 1 8 0 : R e t i r e e M e d i c a l S t u d y ) October 11, 2011 E-33 ACTUARIAL ASSUMPTIONS January 1, 2009 Valuation29 January 1, 2011 & June 30, 2011 Valuations  Medicare Eligible Rate  n/a  Actives hired < 4/1/86:  Miscellaneous – 80%  Safety – 90%  Actives hired > 4/1/86: 100%  Retirees < 65: 90%  Everyone eligible for Medicare will elect Part B coverage  Spousal Coverage at Retirement  Actives: 60%  Retirees: based on current elections  Currently covered: based on current elections  Currently waived: 80%  Family Coverage at Retirement  Actives: 18% until age 65  Retirees: based on current elections until age 65  Actives  Misc : 10% until age 65  Safety : 20% until age 65  Retirees: based on current elections until age 65 October 11, 2011 E-34 ACTUARIAL ASSUMPTIONS January 1, 2009 Valuation29 January 1, 2011 & June 30, 2011 Valuations  Missing PERS Group  n/a  Retirees missing PERS group assumed to be Misc unless fund designates Police or Fire  Missing Bargaining Unit  n/a  Retirees missing bargaining unit assumed to be SEIU unless fund designates Police (PAPOA) or Fire (IAFF)  Missing Department  n/a  Retirees missing department assumed to be 80% GF, 10% Elec, and 10% WWT  Missing Fund  n/a  People assumed to be 80% GF from above assumption placed in “Unknown” Fund  Surviving Spouse Participation  n/a  100% 2.b Packet Pg. 95 -: A t t a c h m e n t B : R e v i s e d P r e l i m i n a r y R e s u l t s ( 2 1 8 0 : R e t i r e e M e d i c a l S t u d y ) October 11, 2011 E-35 ACTUARIAL ASSUMPTIONS January 1, 2009 Valuation29 January 1, 2011 & June 30, 2011 Valuations  Spouse Age  Actives – Males 3 years older than females  Retirees – Males 3 years older than females if spouse birth date not available  Same  Future New Participants  None – Closed Group  Same October 11, 2011 E-36 DEFINITIONS  GASB 45 Accrual Accounting  Project future employer-provided benefit cash flows for current active employees and current retirees  Discount projected cash flow to valuation date using discount rate (assumed return on assets used to pay benefits) and other actuarial assumptions to determine present value of projected future benefits (PVB)  Allocate PVB to past, current, and future periods using the actuarial cost method  Actuarial cost method used for this valuation is the Entry Age Normal Cost method which determines Normal Cost as a level percentage of payroll (same method used by CalPERS)  Normal Cost is amount allocated to current fiscal year  Actuarial Accrued Liability (AAL) is amount allocated to prior service with employer  Unfunded AAL (UAAL) is AAL less plan assets pre-funded in a segregated and restricted trust  PayGo Cost  Cash subsidy is the pay-as-you-go employer benefit payments for retirees  Implied subsidy is the difference between the actual cost of retiree benefits and retiree premiums subsidized by active employee premiums 2.b Packet Pg. 96 -: A t t a c h m e n t B : R e v i s e d P r e l i m i n a r y R e s u l t s ( 2 1 8 0 : R e t i r e e M e d i c a l S t u d y ) October 11, 2011 E-37 DEFINITIONS Present Value of Benefits Present Value of Benefits (With Plan Assets) Unfunded Actuarial Accrued Future Normal Costs Normal Cost Assets Present Value of Benefits (Without Plan Assets) Unfunded Actuarial Accrued Liability Future Normal Costs Normal Cost October 11, 2011 E-38 DEFINITIONS  Annual Required Contribution (ARC)  “Required contribution” for the current period including:  Normal Cost  Amortization of: - Initial UAAL - AAL for plan, assumption, and method changes - Experience gains/losses (difference between expected and actual) - Contribution gains/losses (difference between ARC and contributions)  ARC in excess of pay-as-you-go costs not required to be funded  Net OPEB Obligation (NOO)  Net OPEB Obligation is the accumulated amounts expensed but not funded  Net OPEB Asset if amounts funded exceed those expensed  Annual OPEB Cost (AOC)  Expense for the current period including:  ARC  Interest on NOO  Adjustment of NOO  NOO adjustment prevents double counting of expense since ARCs include an amortization of prior contribution gains/losses previously expensed 2.b Packet Pg. 97 -: A t t a c h m e n t B : R e v i s e d P r e l i m i n a r y R e s u l t s ( 2 1 8 0 : R e t i r e e M e d i c a l S t u d y ) Blue Shield 23.35% 17.95% 23.71% 9.11%13.80%10.06% 5.19% 2.99% 17.01% 5.27% 12.62% Blue Shield NetValue 3.61% 0.98% 16.17% 5.22% 6.34% Kaiser 23.33% 17.83% 16.13% 9.78%10.73%9.16% 7.99% 4.77% 6.84% 7.28% 11.25% PERS Choice 18.88% 18.04% 5.82% 9.43%12.50%6.00% 0.00% 5.44% 10.74% 1.91% 8.71% PERS Select -3.00% 4.80% 3.74% -1.07% 1.06% PERSCare 22.05% -0.59% 13.80% 9.76%13.09%-2.56% 0.00% 15.78% 2.97% 15.13% 8.65% WHA 15.00% 34.23% 15.00% 9.80%11.80%16.86% PORAC 21.25% 9.91% 1.65% 0.00%9.97%2.99% 6.99% 0.00% 8.88% 5.50% 6.55% Blue Shield 4.00% 17.95% -10.06% -0.45% 11.33% 7.05% 0.00% -12.27% 12.80% 0.03% 2.62% Blue Shield NetValue 0.00% -1.68% 12.80% 0.03% 2.63% Kaiser 55.60% 31.90% -11.19% -10.13% 32.52% -5.63% 2.49% 6.50% -5.38% -1.59% 7.61% Kaiser/OOS 13.21% 36.39% 8.96% -19.53% 29.43% 9.89% 6.75% 0.16% 11.11% 3.40% 8.99% PERS Choice 5.08% -1.40% -8.53% 15.18% 6.12% 2.15% 0.00% 2.00% 5.56% 2.01% 2.66% PERS Select 0.00% 2.00% 5.56% 2.01% 2.37% PERSCare 5.92% -1.16% -13.91% 20.01% 7.05% 8.86% 0.00% 1.48% 5.62% -0.28% 3.02% PORAC 21.30% 5.42% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -9.33% 7.03% 10.00% 15.15% 0.00% 4.63% WHA 12.08% 55.09% 0.00% -1.00% 7.00%12.99% Medicare - All Regions Percent Change Percent Change Percent Change Percent Change Percent Change Percent Change Percent Change Percent Change Percent Change 2011-12 Percent Change Bay Area CalPERS 2002-2012 Health Premiums - Regional 2003-04 Percent Change 2004-05 Percent Change Average per year increase Medicare Percent Change 2009-10 Percent Change 2010-11 Percent Change 2007-08 Percent Change 2008-09 Percent Change 2005-06 Percent Change 2006-07 Percent Change Basic 2002-03 Percent Change 2.c Pa c k e t P g . 9 8 -: Attachment C: 2002-2012 PEMHCA Premiums (2180 : Retiree Medical Study) October 12, 2011 1 RESULTS BY FUND Actuarial Accrued Liability (AAL) (Amounts in 000’s) January 1, 2009 January 1, 2011 June 30, 2011 7.75% 7.75% 7.25%  CIP $ 1,564 $ 2,409 $ 2,572  Elec1,2 13,214 16,325 17,225  Gas1 4,589 6,227 6,668  GF3 91,488 118,946 125,564  ISF - Technology 2,226 2,079 2,257  ISF - Vehicle 1,225 1,411 1,510  Refuse 3,063 4,931 5,256  Storm Drain 494 1,478 1,565  Water1 4,673 5,189 5,539  WWC1 2,013 2,103 2,313  WWT 5,112 8,881 9,454  Total 129,661 169,979 179,923 1 Assets for Fiber Optics Fund appropriated to Elec due to no Fiber Optics employees in data 2 AAL for UTL employees allocated to Elec, Gas, Water, and WWC in proportion to each Fund’s AAL 3 Assets for Printing & Mailing Fund appropriated to GF due to no Printing & Mailing employees in data October 12, 2011 2 RESULTS BY FUND Annual Required Contribution (ARC) (Amounts in 000’s) 1/1/09 Valuation 1/1/11 Valuation 6/30/11 Valuation Annual Required Contribution 2009/10 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 7.75% 7.75% 7.25%  CIP $ 142 $ 220 $ 237 $ 245  Elec1,2 953 1,164 1,235 1,275  Gas1 344 390 515 532  GF3 6825 9,510 10,018 10,344  ISF - Technology 214 229 245 253  ISF - Vehicle 95 126 132 136  Refuse 245 402 420 434  Storm Drain 36 112 118 121  Water1 386 428 464 479  WWC1 169 200 223 230  WWT 377 730 771 796  Total 9,786 13,603 14,378 14,845 2.d Packet Pg. 99 -: A t t a c h m e n t D : R e s u l t s b y F u n d ( 2 1 8 0 : R e t i r e e M e d i c a l S t u d y ) Excerpt from Finance Committee minutes of October 18, 2011. 2. Review and Acceptance of Updated Retiree Medical Actuarial Study – Valuation Date January 1, 2011 and Valuation Date June 30, 2011 Director of Administrative Services, Lalo Perez stated in 2008 Government Accounting Standards Board (GASB) required governmental entities to value the benefits of medical plans to determine the liability; the City complied in January of 2009. It was required every two-years to complete a refresh of the value. The presentation showed the differences between the 2009 value of the benefit to the 2011 refresh. The major difference was in the retirees where it went from $78,384,000 to $118,800,000. The positive piece of the information was the assets being set aside had increased and the City’s earning had risen. The assets went from $24.6 million in 2009 to $35.3 million in 2011 bringing the unfunded liability for retiree medical for the full organization to $135 million. Public Employee Retiree Service (PERS) had added the flexibility for the City to select a regular return. After discussions internally and with Bartel Associates, Inc. it was determined a 7.25 discount rate was the rate for the City to use going forward for the Fiscal Years (FY) 2013 and 2014. By following that recommendation it changed the future Annual Required Contribution (ARC) from $13.6 to $14.4 million, approximately $775,000 more for FY13 and if the same rate of assumption was maintained there would be an additional $467,000 for FY14. John Bartel, Bartel Associates, LLC addressed the Actuarial Accrual Liability (AAL) number which was $130 million and the expectation should be for the AAL to grow from one valuation to the next because there were services being rendered and as they were rendered it changed the numbers. He explained if there had been no changes in the assumption and there had been no gains and losses the expected AAL would have been $151 million. Assumptions were thought of future changes for what may occur and no matter how good of an actuarial firm the City hired they did not determine the cost of the plan. The cost of the plan was determined based on the benefits paid, offset by investment earnings received in the Trust and increased by expenses. He reviewed the actuarial gains and losses comparing the 2009 results to the 2011 results and explained the increase. Mr. Perez stated in selecting Bartel and Associates, LLC. as the actuarial firm for the City, Staff had send out a list serve inquiry and the majority of the responses from other agencies for who they had completed their reports were Bartel and Associates, LLC. He spoke to the changes made by the present and prior Council with respect to the longer term benefits; 1) there was a longer vesting period with retiree medical so an employee hired post January 2004 needed 20 years to achieve the 90 percent and 2) for the Public Employee Retirement Service (PERS) Care Family Health Plan the City was not paying 100 percent which was significant since the annual cost was $24,000 for someone with family coverage. In order to mitigate the future costs the City could negotiate with the bargaining units or the other option was to utilize the funds set aside in the Trust to assist paying the difference. Staff hoped to return in early calendar year 2012 to provide recommendations. City Manager, James Keene announced the main action Staff was recommending to the Finance Committee was to set the methodology on the liability and the ARC. The next item on the agenda was a discussion of the 2012 budget and the implications on finances; he felt the two issues were directly linked. In the last actuarial valuation there was a $105 million unfunded liability and currently it was at $134 million even though there was a strong financial performance activity on the assets. He asked if there was a net increase of assets over the last two years. Mr. Perez stated yes there was a net increase in assets. He clarified the firm made a recommendation and the City accepted to smooth out the assumptions of the values of the assets going forward. Mr. Keene asked if the methodology had not been changed would the valuation of the unfunded liability been less in 2009. Mr. Bartel stated if no assumption changes were made then the unfunded liability would have been $109 million. Mr. Perez said Staff was aware from the Council feedback that Bartel felt the assumption of 6 and 6.5 percent for medical cost increases was not sufficient. Mr. Keene asked for confirmation that the unfunded liability would continue to rise even if there were solid investment performances. Mr. Bartel agreed. Council Member Shepherd asked if a large group of employees retired in a short timeframe caused a “bubble” which exacerbated the position, when would there be an “un-bubble” as it were. Mr. Keene clarified if there were no new hires there could be an “un- bubble” but the City needed to replace employees so that was not a probable scenario. He said people were living longer which created a greater long-term cost. Council Member Shepherd saw the mass retirement as a cause and effect of the City’s position to increase the cost of employee contribution to healthcare and what she was asking was would there be a softening effect. Mr. Bartel clarified the firm reviewed the City’s employment population and calculated their age with years vested. He said in considering the data the remaining population who did not retire with the early retirement package were not far from regular retirement. If the City were to split the active liability in half, that would reduce the actuarial liability by $25 million. The liability for retirees themselves was $119 million. Chair Scharff asked when the unfunded liability payment was due. Mr. Bartel said that liability was being paid off over a period of 28 years. The goal was to ensure there were sufficient funds to make the benefits payment but there was no requirement that the payment be made early; it would be prudent to do so if there were the ability but it was not required. Council Member Yeh asked why the firm created a closed amortization period of 30 years. Mr. Bartel clarified the 30 year timeframe was in the prior firm’s valuation, although the accounting standard recommended not using a period longer than 30 years. It appeared the previous firm was using a rolling 30 year formula but in doing that the City would never pay off the debt. The City’s policy was to payoff the unfunded liability which was a good fiscal policy and in that model there needed to be an end date so the lower the ARC the less of the unfunded liability was paid off. Mr. Keene asked if nothing changed over the next 28 years and the City made the ARC payments as identified, at the end of the 28 years there would be no unfunded liability. Mr. Bartel said that it did not mean there would not be a required contribution but yes, there would not be an unfunded liability. Council Member Schmid confirmed the formula of applying the health retiree benefits to current employees had three parts; 1) prepaying for the liability he or she would have in the future, 2) past retirement payments, and 3) a portion of the payment would be put off because in the future his or her payment may be higher. Two parts were positive and one negative so he asked how the firm would recommend allocation of shares for each part. Mr. Bartel stated none of the numbers included any payment for current active medical costs today; the formula was for their retirement. The belief was the City was taking into account that the portion of the premiums being paid for the current employee after retirement would be substantially higher than what was being paid today. Council Member Schmid stated within the demographics the actuary firm had built-in an assumption people would compete in the labor market for 28 years prior to retiring. Mr. Bartel disagreed and stated what was being said was when the City reviewed their population they made an assumption of how long they would be working for the City. The formula was to take the pension plan in conjunction with a generous retiree medical plan which took you to an expected retirement age based on Palo Alto’s demographic. He explained to a large degree the employees at 2.7 had an expected retirement age of 57 based on the demographic. Council Member Schmid asked when a payment was made during the current year was the payment based on an assumption of the number of years of service the employee would have when they retired. Mr. Bartel clarified for the active employees the City may be making payments on their unfunded liability after they had retired. Council Member Schmid asked if the City was adequately providing for those who were currently working. Mr. Bartel said the sooner the unfunded liability was paid off, the better off the City would be. Council Member Schmid asked what the City should be paying for current employees. Mr. Bartel said for example, if Palo Alto had the funds and if they were able to accommodate it he suggested paying off the unfunded liability closer to a twelve year amortization. Council Member Schmid asked if the firm was assuming the employees were going to be working for 25 years why was the City making payments on the basis of 28 years. Mr. Bartel stated if the City had been pre-funding the retirement medical obligation since it began there would not be a term of 28 years. He felt the City would not run out of funds by following the 28 year plan. Council Member Schmid was concerned that over the past two years the unfunded liability had taken a large jump because assumptions were made of the demographics. He said the asset market value between 2008 and 2011 the total increased by 10 percent but the actuarial value did not increase at all over the same four year period. The projected 2012 value had a substantial growth in asset except it was already the first quarter and the value was at minus 20 percent. Mr. Bartel stated that was correct. Council Member Schmid said if the assumption was a growth of 7.25 rate of return; he asked where the 7.25 came from. He mentioned the Federal Government announced they were going to be driving the bond market as close to 1 to 2 percent as possible for the next two years and global equities were going up and down with no trend of a solid upward momentum. Council Member Shepherd said Palo Alto had a 50 percent confident rating and she asked how a 90 percent confident rating would affect the numbers. Mr. Bartel confirmed if the confident rating rose to 90 percent the number would rise to approximately 4 percent. He stated the firm received their numbers through looking to outside investment advisors and asset classifications then perform statistic projections. He agreed a rate return of 7.25 in the short term was not achievable which was why he explained asset smoothing was so important. Council Member Schmid was concerned about the smoothing process being represented. Mr. Bartel believed the 50 percent confidence level was close to the 7.61 rate of return but he preferred to air on the conservative side and brought it down to 7.25. Council Member Schmid felt Council should be able to speak to the employees he needed to provide realistic numbers. Mr. Bartel asked what discount rates Council Member Schmid felt should be used. Council Member Schmid stated 7.25; given the current asset allocation was much too high for the amount of risk. Mr. Bartel said the goal should be to asses the type of risk the City was willing to take and setting the discount rate at that level. Council Member Yeh asked the status of legislation to fund the unfunded liability. Mr. Bartel clarified the City would issue their financial statements in compliance with GASB who had a pension exposure draft and although it was not required to place the pension unfunded liability on the financial statement it was clearly the most efficient way to accomplish an accurate accounting. The exposure draft should be issued by the end of 2012. Council Member Yeh asked what the impact of monitoring would be and if Palo Alto changed their methodology would their funded percentage be reduced. Mr. Bartel agreed, the more conservative the assumptions for discount rates the lower the funded percentage would be. Council Member Yeh asked where the rating agencies would go with that type of system. Mr. Bartel said in speaking with the rating agencies if there was a modest liability and the City was doing nothing it would not affect the agencies rating but if there was a valuable promise and the City was not acting on it the rating agency would react. Council Member Yeh said if GASB did not come out with a prescribed methodology and each city was using different assumptions that would become confusing. Mr. Bartel was told by GASB that the actuaries had a standard of practice and the outside auditors would review their work for reasonableness. His concern was the outside auditors may not be knowledgeable enough in those standards to perform an adequate review. Council Member Yeh noted a higher level of comfort with a higher level of conservativeness but his concern was being more conservative may position Palo Alto in a manner that could hurt the City externally. Mr. Bartel stated his recommendation was to set t he discount rate for the ARC which would also be the discount rate for the financial statements. That left room to use a different rate for internal purposes. He felt the concern over the discount rate was not limited to Other Post Employee Benefit (OPEB), it was part in parcel to the CalPERS pension. Council Member Yeh said when there was only a closed amortization period and new retirees entered the system it created an understated unfunded liability because the new retires had not been included. Mr. Bartel clarified his valuation had anticipated that and noted the level percentage of pay making a negative amortization which meant there was a negative amortization period until the level of amortization was below 20 years. Council Member Yeh said there had been contributions to the Trust since 2008 and asked to what extend had it been spent down. Mr. Perez stated the Trust had risen to $44.8 million and the majority of the increases were from earnings. Council Member Yeh noted he had seen the contributions listing in the Staff Report but his question was whether the City had made the contributions or were they from the structural reforms. Mr. Bartel said they were City contributions. Vice Mayor Yeh asked whether or not to use the Trust Fund to pay a portion of the increased costs. Mr. Perez noted that was one option to be considered, another option would be budget reductions or increased revenues. Vice Mayor Yeh reiterated the actuary had mentioned with a 30 year amortization the City would not run out of funds. He asked if the funds being refereed to were Trust Funds. Mr. Bartel clarified the City was making their benefit payments for retirees and putting funds aside with the intent of making the benefits payments from the Trust at a future time. The expectation was the City would reach a point in approximately 15 years where there were sufficient funds to be able to expend fewer monies by making the benefits payments out of the Trust. Vice Mayor Yeh asked how much City contribution needed to be added to the Trust in order to achieve the 5.65. If the goal was to continue with the closed amortization and achieve the goal of using the Trust in 15 years, he did not want to run out of funds. Mr. Perez stated the key was to be able to make the payments so there were no funds drawn from the Trust. Mr. Keene asked for clarification that the employee contributions for healthcare were dedicated to the unfunded liability. Mr. Perez stated that was correct. Vice Mayor Yeh asked if that area would be a separate line item in the future. Mr. Perez noted it would be listed in the report under contributions. Council Member Shepherd commented on how the City was placing good faith in the Irrevocable Coffers Trust that sound investment choices were being made with the contributions being placed through them. She noted she was not comfortable with the investment choices. Her preference would be having the City put aside the funds utilizing the mechanisms currently in place for earning interest. She noted the assumptions did not reflect the adjustments from safety units or what might be coming forward with the other bargaining units. Mr. Bartel assured the Committee the rate of return would absolutely not be 7.25. Council Member Shepherd said it would be less. Mr. Bartel clarified he was uncertain what the percentage rate would be in the short run however not many of their clients were comfortable with how CalPERS had been investing. Council Member Shepherd said they had not changed their manner of thinking on investment strategy during the changing financial crisis. Mr. Bartel disagreed and clarified there were elements that CalPERS had changed but some they had not. In the California Employers Retirees Benefit Trust (CERBT) there were two elements that were in the Pension Trust and they did not invest in specific real estate. Council Member Shepherd understood those points but argued their strategy of investment in the global market place, where they placed the bulk of their funds, had not changed. Mr. Bartel suggested they review what the CalPERS investment staff was doing today, if anything, that was different from their prior practices. CalPERS had a long run of Chief Investment Officer (CIO) turn over until they hired Joe Dear a few years ago who focused on long-term investments and shifted the method of their investment strategy. Council Member Shepherd was familiar with Mr. Dear but did not feel there had been a significant shift in strategy since his arrival. She recommended using the information as a tool during labor negotiations. Chair Scharff agreed and noted it affected how retirees were viewed and whether or not they could switch to a more expensive plan. Council Member Yeh asked if Staff was reviewing the determined funding recommendations for the current year, for example whether the additions to the net increase in the ARC should be funded through the Trust or not. Mr. Perez said the Staff was returning during the Mid-Year to show the Committee where the City was and recommend a decision at that time. Mr. Keene said the increased payment needing to be made was for FY 2012, the next item on the agenda was on the budget update where there was a recommendation relating to drawing down the Budget Stabilization Reserve because of the over collection of revenues but that did not factor in any additional savings from public safety. Council Member Yeh expressed the information was helpful and asked about the increase of employee contributions and whether there Staff had a process in mind. Mr. Keene agreed with the general statement of Mr. Perez regarding trends that the City had been consistently making with the bargaining units and that he was discussing the equity/parity across the bargaining units but that the contributions would be escalating as time moved forward. The goal was to have all of the units making the same contribution on healthcare. MOTION: Council Member Schmid moved, seconded by Council Member XXX that the Finance Committee accept the Retiree Healthcare Plan January 1, 2011 and June 30, 2011 GASB 45 Actuarial Valuations Revised Preliminary Results and that Staff provide information on an Option to include a 7 percent Discount Rate and move the allocation period to 25 years. MOTION FAILED FOR LACK OF SECOND MOTION: Council Member Shepherd moved, seconded by Vice Mayor Yeh that the Finance Committee accept the Retiree Healthcare Plan January 1, 2011 and June 30, 2011 GASB 45 Actuarial Valuations Revised Preliminary Results. Council Member Shepherd requested the structural changes from the Police and Fire units be included in the report. Council Member Yeh noted the retiree medical benefits were not a two year issue and changes needed to be incorporated into the report being distributed as new information arose. He felt if there were feedback throughout the process it would be more helpful to show different methodologies. Mr. Bartel clarified the modification of the amortization period did not require a new process, his firm would take the unfunded liability and re-run the information with a different number of years to reflect the new amortization date. Chair Scharff asked if Mr. Bartel was saying it would not cost the City any further expense to re-run the information. Mr. Bartel clarified the alteration of the discount rate to 7 percent would require the firm to complete additional work. He noted in order of magnitude if they ran a 7 percent discount rate and reviewed a different amortization period those fees would be between $1,500 to $2,000 on the outset. Where the amortization change itself would take approximately 2 hours and cost up to $500. Council Member Yeh said the current amortization period was an industry standard of 30 years so he would not want the City’s formal actuarial study to reflect something different. MOTION PASSED: 4-0 October 18, 2011 Finance Committee Meeting #2180 Retiree Medical Valuation Study 2 Actuarial Liability 2009 - 11 FUNDED STATUS – 7.75% DISCOUNT RATE (Amounts in 000’s) 1/1/09 1/1/11 Projected 6/30/11 Present Value of Benefits • Actives • Retirees • Total $ 78,831 78,384 157,215 $ 85,476 118,800 204,276 Actuarial Accrued Liability • Actives • Retirees • Total Actuarial Value of Assets (AVA) Unfunded AAL 51,277 78,384 129,661 24,616 105,045 51,179 118,800 169,979 35,294 134,685 174,485 40,222 134,263 Annual Required Contribution (ARC) 9,786 13,603 Net Increase in ARC 3,817 3 Annual Required Contribution FY 2012, 2013 and 2014 4 Assumption Changes 2009-11 5 Cost Mitigation Efforts 1.Longer vesting period for retiree medical for post-1/2004 hires 2.Highest-cost medical plan no longer paid 100% by City, since 2007 3.Miscellaneous group employees ramping up to 10% medical premium cost-sharing, effective 4/1/11 4.Firefighters will contribute 10% of medical premiums, effective 10/31/11 – -- NOT INCLUDED IN THIS ACTUARIAL STUDY -- 6 Next Steps 1.Continue negotiating with Safety bargaining units 2.Determine funding recommendations for current year may include drawing from CERBT trust 3.Determine funding recommendations for FY 2013 and 2014 may include increasing employee contributions November 28, 2011 Item 3a Excerpt 3a. (Former No. 2) Finance Committee Recommendation that the Council Approve and Accept the Updated Retiree Medical Actuarial Study. Council Member Klein stated his opinion that the dollar value of the item should have excluded it from the Consent Calendar. He asked Staff to discuss for the benefit of the public why there was a need for a new actuary firm. He said there were recommendations from the actuary which were accepted by the Finance Committee that he did not agree with. Not all of the choices should be conservative. An over funded City could lead to an under funded community which could have a negative financial impact by making the community less desirable. He appreciated the caution being taken over the past few years and warned balance was necessary for a thriving community. Lalo Perez, Director of Administrative Services expressed Staff had intended to continue the use of Milliman, Inc. (Milliman) to conduct the updated actuarial study. When it became evident the City needed to have a firm act as an expert witness in the Binding Arbitration hearing Milliman informed Staff it would not be in their best interest to participate because of work they performed work for the International Association of Fire Fighters (IAFF). The new firm chosen, Bartel Associates, LLC (Bartel) was recommended by CalPERS and they were willing to participate in the Binding Arbitration. James Keene, City Manager added the firm was well recognized across the state and for a period of time were the leading actuarial experts. Council Member Klein asked if the previous firm had completed any work on the project prior to transferring out. Mr. Perez recognized they had completed some partial work. Council Member Klein noted John Bartel had completed the actuarial study differently than Milliman had in the past. He asked whether Milliman would have made the same changes during this update. For example with the medical trend assumptions; Bartel’s assumptions were the rates would start high and end low which added $4.8 million to the City’s unfunded liability where Millimans’ started at 6.5 percent and ended at 5.85 percent. Mr. Perez stated Staff would worked with Milliman’s staff to adjust their low rate. Comments from Council indicated Long Term Projects rates should be aligned to recent. Council Member Klein asked if there were other incidents that could be questioned. Mr. Perez confirmed there were and explained that CalPERS made changes to the demographics every couple of years and so Milliman did not have the information prior to their departure. An additional factor noticed by Bartel was the employees hired prior to 1986 were not required to contribute to Medicare. If it were determined those Staff members were not covered by Medicare, the City was responsible for the full cost not just the Medicare cost. Milliman had a rolling 30 year amortization but with Bartel it was a 28 year closed end amortization and the last difference was the rate of return assumptions because CalPERS had made changes. Council Member Klein asked the cost difference between the closed amortization period versus the open. Council Member Scharff noted the Staff discussion regarding the differences between open and closed amortization was on packet page 175. Mr. Perez stated he did not recall the number but would review the report and let Council know when the information was ready. Council Member Klein said it was a basic actuarial decision and he was certain Milliman maintained the open 30 year deliberately. His concern was if the rolling period was working for the City what was the benefit to locking in a close date. Mr. Perez said that by moving to the 28 year closed end recommendation by the end of the time the cost would only be for the current employees. The rolling was as if each year the loan was being extended with no reduction. Council Member Klein said Staff told Council two years ago the model being used was accurate and now the new model was the accurate one. Mr. Perez clarified two years ago was the first time Staff had experienced the program and after review and alterations they felt the proposed program was a better fit for the City. Mr. Keene said the program was meant to be a mix of the goals Council wished to achieve. With any actuarial there was discretion for the City to focus on the mix of assumptions they expected Staff to include. Vice Mayor Yeh said the Finance Committee had discussed the new rules Government Accounting Standards Board (GASB) had implemented and the need to report what the liability was versus the need to fund the liability. He asked what steps had been taken with the different bodies that require the entity fund the liability. The closed end methodology would have a large impact on the steps towards repayment but there was a higher burden within a limited timeframe versus re-upping with the rolling methodology. He said it would be helpful to know if that was a direction GASB or legislation was going in. Mr. Perez acknowledged there was a draft in process but nothing had been released for review. His understanding was most agencies with significant amounts were experiencing difficulty in addressing the liability. His concern for Palo Alto would be because of the changes made he was not clear how the rating agencies would view the City not funding irregardless of GASB’s ruling. His secondary concern was the liability amount was beginning to match the General Fund. Vice Mayor Yeh asked if it would be possible to have an actuary calculate through both methodologies. Mr. Perez stated it was possible. It would add to the cost, but Staff would comply with Council’s direction. Mr. Keene shared his thoughts about having an unfunded liability. Good financial management would be to reduce or eliminate unfunded liabilities. He clarified either methodology would allow for modifications to accommodate different goals. There were time constrains as far as what assumptions Palo Alto was using to report to CalPERS prior to the end of the 2011 calendar year. Council Member Klein said the language used by Staff throughout the report indicated the City was going to fund the Annual Required Contribution (ARC) and it was his understanding that was included in the make-up of the budget. Mr. Perez agreed that was how Staff had approached the funding plan for Mid-Year. There was a $4.3 million place holder for safety group concessions; he noted not all of them would be met in the given timeframe. Council Member Klein clarified his concern was with the ARC and the policy had been to fund the full ARC. Mr. Perez confirmed that had been Staff’s recommendation. Council Member Klein noted it had been addressed that fully funding the ARC was not a requirement by GASB at this time. Mr. Perez stated that was correct, the report read that it was an annual requirement but in fact it was not. Council Member Klein was concerned that with the change in direction it was not City Staff but an outside entity that had placed a burden on the budget. Mr. Keene informed the Council the City was in the position to not accept the actuarial assumptions. He said there was sound advice in Mr. Bartel’s recommendations. He agreed the elimination of unfunded liabilities over time was the best way to approach the debt situation. He acknowledged if the proposed assumptions were approved by Council, Staff would return later in the year with recommendations to fund the additional costs in the current budget year for the ARC. Council Member Klein asked if the FY12-13 budget would be prepared in a similar manner. Mr. Perez stated yes. Council Member Klein asked for clarity on the interest rate assumption, he was not quite clear from the wording in the report. On page 114 there was notification of an $800,000 jump in the ARC between FY12 and FY13 because of the decrease in the discount rate from 7.75 percent to 7.25 percent but the next paragraph indicated the PERS Trust offered three possible asset allocations. Number one was the City’s chosen option as the highest yield of 7.61 percent. Mr. Bartel recommended dropping this to 7.25 percent. He asked if Staff had accepted Mr. Bartel’s interest rate assumption recommendation. Mr. Perez replied yes. In FY12 Staff was using 7.75 percent. For FY13 was where the PERS Trust options became relevant. Staff was accepting the 7.61 percent with a margin for adverse deviation which dropped the rate to 7.25 percent. Council Member Klein asked if Staff was aware of what Milliman would have recommended in the same situation. Mr. Perez stated no. Council Member Klein mentioned the conservative approach was costing an excess of $800,000 when Staff could have used the 7.61 percent without incident. Mr. Perez noted if the 7.75 percent had been used there would have been a $580,000 difference in the annual payment. Council Member Klein accepted the report but noted there were implications he was not accept because Staff was being overly cautious. MOTION: Vice Mayor Yeh moved, seconded by Council Member Schmid to approve and accept the Updated Retiree Medical Actuarial Study. Vice Mayor Yeh was aware when there was significant change in methodology there would be a robust discussion but having a Mid-Year check-in provided the opportunity to understand the true fiscal impacts. Mr. Keene recommended the Council meet with Mr. Bartel prior to the budget process. Council Member Schmid felt Mr. Bartel’s assumptions were realistic and noted healthcare costs were rising annually. He acknowledged past Council decisions had passed liability obligations on to the present. He said it was unfortunate the increased revenue generated was being obligated to fund the ARC payment rather than salaries or other obligations. He believed the 30 year timeframe was based on the assumption most workers in the system would work for 30 years. He supported the acceptance of the Bartel recommendation. Council Member Scharff understood the difference between a retiree paying off a debt when they would no longer be generating income while the City would continue to do so. He agreed it was a positive public policy to payoff the assumptions with a closed end. He asked what the impact was if the present assumptions were not accurate. Mr. Perez said the liability would continue to grow. Council Member Scharff asked what impact the continued growth of the liability would have on the City. Mr. Perez said there would be an increase in the calculation of the payments, if the amount was significant enough to impact the City the concern was with the rating agencies. Council Member Scharff asked why the public safety concessions were not included in the assumptions while the miscellaneous category was and with that there was $14.2 million saved. He asked if during Mid- Year the public safety would be included. He believed if the City was not going to fully fund the ARC they were better off using the assumptions that would lower the amount. Mr. Perez agreed in concept it made sense to use the assumptions with a lower amount if the full ARC was not being funded. Council Member Scharff stated he supported the Motion. Council Member Shepherd had concerns with the CalPERS 50 percent confidence rate of return. She believed Palo Alto was within the norms of other municipalities so when the reporting occurred to the public, it appeared conservative although she felt for the 28 year period it needed to be reviewed. She was aware without the concessions from fire or police each time Council reviewed the assumptions it would change with the added concessions. She asked if the City would be able to cash flow the payoff with the period of the financial picture. With continued employee retiring there was a need to continue the funding. She noted her support for the Motion. Council Member Burt asked why the item was on the Consent Calendar. Mr. Keene had thought with the Finance Committee approving the item unanimously it would suffice being on the Consent Calendar. He understood if an item passed unanimously but might be contentious it should not be placed under Consent. Council Member Burt said the subjective criteria was either contentiousness or high consequence. He said $1 million was a high enough consequence and this item was $29 million. He asked for clarity of future criteria for potential policy changes. He noted the concern of the new actuary being too conservative but mentioned the previous actuary understated the liability. He said the difference in the actuarial studies was the public safety groups from $29 million to $43 million. He asked if his interpretation was accurate. Mr. Perez believed that was correct. If there was not a positive of $14 million because of the miscellaneous group the liability would have been $44 million. Council Member Burt shared his concern with the City relying too heavily on an actuary study when they could be varied. His attention was drawn when Milliman refused to be an expert witness because of their association with the Fire Union. Mr. Perez noted it was not the City’s Fire Union but rather the National Fire Fighters Union. Council Member Burt was disturbed that they would disengage their relationship with the City because of the relationship with the Union. He noted one factor to be aware of was the decreased age of retirement and the second was the spike in Palo Alto retirements which altered different elements of liabilities. He noticed the PERS PPO premiums had been increasing at 2 percent annually less than what appeared to be the actual underline costs. Mr. Perez explained the premiums had increased 7 percent while the claims had increased 10 percent. It was recommended by Bartel to adjust the 2 percent differential because the conjecture was the amounts would catch up. PERS was using reserves from the PPO plans to cover the differences, the recommendation was to prepare the City for the true bill. Council Member Burt said that was an indication that PERS was understating the cost. This raised the concern of whether Palo Alto could trust the information coming from PERS. He acknowledged Palo Alto was one of the few City’s confronting the situation head on but there maintained a large unfunded liability. INCORPORATED INTO THE MOTION WITH THE CONSENT OF THE MAKER AND SECONDER that Staff is to schedule a meeting with Mr. Bartel and full Council prior to the Finance Committee Mid-Year Review. Council Member Holman said this level of impact to the budget deserved enlightened discussions. Council Member Klein said Staff’s intention was to fund the full ARC each year which had been City policy. The recent spike to Palo Alto retirements was referred to as a short term occurrence although the actuary did not believe that to be true. Mr. Perez said the actuary requested trending data. The current data was available in the report but was not sufficient for their purposes. Council Member Klein could not see how the level of retirement trends could continue. Mr. Perez clarified the changes made in 2004 to the retirement packages altered to implosion of retirement costs from those who were hired prior and could retire earlier. Council Member Klein said because of the economic trends in the country the national reports indicate a later in life retirement rather than the information presented in the report. Council Member Shepherd asked with the current Motion if the ARC would be funded next year. Mr. Keene said Staff was intending to bring forth during Mid-Year a budget recommendation to fund the ARC in FY12 and unless directed otherwise, the FY2013 budget would begin in spring also funding the ARC. Council Member Shepherd asked if the decision was to not fund the ARC if there would be a discussion. Mr. Perez stated the FY2012 had approximately $10 million to fund the ARC which was adopted by Council previously. The discussion was to return with a recommendation to increase the amount to match the actuarial study recommendation. The payment was not made until the end of the year so Council could direct Staff not to make a payment. Council Member Shepherd asked if the payment was due at the end of the calendar year or fiscal year. Mr. Keene confirmed the fiscal year, June 30, 2012. Council Member Price asked what the average rate of return had been from CalPERS assumptions over the past 5 years. Mr. Perez said the CalPERS Trust had been up and down, he did not have current numbers in percentages. He noted in January of 2011 it was 18 percent and as of September 30, 2011 there was a significant decrease in the portfolio which was at $44 million and dropped by $5 million. He declared Staff would have the historic percentages when they returned. Council Member Price felt the information would be helpful for the past few years and the assumptions moving forward. Council Member Schmid noted the report showed half of the current active employees were in the age range of 45 to 54 which indicated a steady stream of retirements. MOTION AS AMENDED PASSED: 9-0 01/30/2012 Excerpt Minutes from the January 30, 2012 Council Minutes 8. Retirement Medical Actuarial Report Discussion. Director of Administrative Services, Lalo Perez announced the item was previously brought before Council on November 28, 2011 where they determined it should be returned with the Actuarial Consultant available to answer questions. Although the Council had accepted the Staff recommendation during the previous meeting, Staff informed them they were in a position to make changes to the assumptions as they felt necessary during the presentation by the Consultant. President, Bartel Associates, LLC, John Bartel gave a presentation to explain the process of how the actuarial assumptions came to be. Initially there were two valuations prepared, January 2009 and 2011 which determined the end of Fiscal Year 2012 Annual Required Contribution (ARC) albeit the contribution was not a requirement. The key number to pay attention to was the Actuarial Accrued Liability (AAL); the value of benefits do to service that had already been rendered. If the assumptions were met the amount presented should be considered as the amount of assets that should be set aside. The Actuarial Accrued Liability for active employees dropped modestly from $51.3 million to $50.2 million while there was a large increase for those who were no longer rendering service went from $78.4 million to $119 million; therefore, the total liability went from $130 million to $169 million. The presentation was broken out into assumption changes, plan changes, and gains and losses. He explained the Actuarial Load item was the review of the increase to the CalPERS premiums; that had not been keeping pace from one year to the next with their claims. CalPERS had been pulling funds from their reserves to mitigate their premium increases. It was discovered that people were opting into more expensive Medical Plans at retirement, which increased the assumption numbers by $2.6 million. The two items that decreased the liability were the cost sharing and the International Association of Fire Fighters (IAFF). The Un-funded Actuarial Accrued Liability (UAAL) of $134 million represented the distance the City was from its AAL. The UAAL was rolled over on June 30, 2011 to be added to the FY11/12 ARC in the amount of $8,597,000 to equal a 28-year amortization of the original number which was for a 30-year amortization. He noted if the City was pre-funding an obligation there should be a period where that amount was being paid off over. He mentioned if the City was to continue the pattern of an open or rolling amortization in the current FY the ARC would be lower and there would be a cash flow but 30-years from now the Un-funded Liability would not be paid off and in fact the Un-funded Liability would be higher than today. 2 01/30/2012 Mr. Perez clarified if the City switched to a 30-year open amortization for FY12 the reduction in the ARC would be $280,000 or $196,000 for the General Fund. For FY13, the number would be $470,000 city wide or $329,000 for the General Fund. The Rate of Return discussed in November for FY12 was 7.75 percent and for FY13 and forward there were three choices; the highest rate available was 7.61 percent, 7.06 percent, and 6.39 percent. Staff had recommended the City use 7.61 percent with an adjustment for adverse deviation which lowered the percentage to 7.25 which was the return used for FY13. If the number used remained at 7.61 percent the ARC would be $570,000 city wide with the General Fund being $399,000; 70 percent of the contribution was a General Fund obligation. If there was a change to a 30-year rolling amortization with a higher rate of return assumption of 7.61 percent it would lower the General Fund annual required obligation by $728,000. The experience with the Trust since its inception in March of 2008 through December of 2011 the Rate of Return was 3.62 percent to the positive. Staff intended to return to Council at Mid- Year for a discussion on options to fully fund the ARC and to locate solutions to fund the ARC on an ongoing basis beginning with FY13 which meant increasing the budget by $3.7 million city wide or $2.3 in the General Fund in FY12 and an additional $800,000 city wide or $500,000 for the General Fund. Council Member Klein made note that the non-required ARC was absorbing ten percent of the budget which appeared to be freezing out expenditures that may be better for the health of the community long-term. He asked if the goal of the Consultant was to choose the most conservative assumption. Mr. Bartel said that was incorrect. The information his Firm provided was their educated speculation, they did not feel the assumptions provided were the most conservative but were not the most aggressive either. He noted CalPERS selected the ranges and the Firm had a choice from their provided percentages. CalPERS had a significant amount of equity invested in the Global Equity market which was volatile. Council Member Klein asked if there was a standard in the Actuarial Field as to which amortization approach was approved or required. Mr. Bartel said some Actuaries had used the Government Accounting Standards Board (GASB) accounting standard as the out of bounds marker for the minimum contribution that could be paid, if that was the approach taken from an accrual stand point there should not be an amortization period longer than 30-years. He believed if a client was pre-funding and they had a goal of paying their un-funded liability off, using an open or rolling amortization period did not meet that objective. If the objective was to pay the minimum that the GASB accounting standard allowed without worry 3 01/30/2012 whether the unfunded liability was paid off, an open or rolling amortization was sufficient. Council Member Klein had concerns with the Bartel Associates not recognizing there may be an un-bubble as it were with the number of employees not retiring appose to the high number of retirees over the past few years. Mr. Bartel expressed his understanding of the un-bubble was when the City ended up with far fewer people eligible to retire. Council Member Klein said if the information was acknowledged in the report that was sufficient. Mr. Bartel requested the Council review the presentation where the active liability was shown from January 1, 2009 to January 1, 2011 the rate of retirement did not impact the people who had already retired, it only impacted the active liability where the un-bubble was partially reflected by the number of active liability being lower because there were a lot of people who retired in the short-run. His Firms’ calculations reflected CalPERS experience in terms of how people will retire. Council Member Klein asked how the CalPERS experience was reflective of the City of Palo Alto experience. Mr. Bartel clarified Palo Alto’s non-safety employees had retired on average at age 57, while the CalPERS rate of retirement being used for the current active employees had future employees expected to retire slightly above age 58. Therefore his Firm consistently believed the Experience Analysis CalPERS had completed, which was specifically related to CalPERS Public Agencies with their pension formulas. Council Member Klein asked how the factors related since the non-safety employees were now at a two percent at age 60. Mr. Bartel said the Palo Alto non-safety employees did not have two percent at age 60. Council Member Klein clarified the incoming employees were brought in at two percent at age 60. Mr. Bartel said the two percent at age 60 only applied to employees hired after a certain date. They would need to use the rate of retirement associated with the formula that people had so the formula of a retirement age of 58 would be closer to 60 or 61 with two percent at 60. He noted until 4 01/30/2012 the employees were hired under the calculation they were not taken into consideration in the valuation. Council Member Klein said if the Actuarial Report was performed every two years and the Firm reviewed long-term, in ten years most of the employees would be at two percent at 60. Mr. Bartel said how the City achieved the factors would be based on how the employees were hired. His experience with second tiers was it would take approximately ten years for the agency to make up half of the population. For now the employees who had not been hired had no impact on the un- funded liability. Council Member Shepherd asked if Mr. Bartel felt the Milliman firm would have stayed at the 7.75 percent rate on discount. Mr. Bartel said they would have had to drop to 7.61 percent for the June 30, 2011 since it was the cap. Council Member Shepherd asked when the five year averaging was compiled with respect to asset smoothing. She had seen the measurement between 2009 and 2010 and clearly 2009 was a low point for savings and portfolios. Mr. Bartel said the Firm settled on a five year asset smoothing period after reviewing economic cycles and the CalPERS rate of return cycles which ranged between a three to five year span. When the Firm reviewed the CalPERS 15-year pension smoothing system there was a fear the length of time would mask a large systematic adjustment. The reason the firm settled on a five year asset smoothing cycle was because it was a long enough period to see an economic flux without being so long there was a masking occurring. Council Member Shepherd asked if there was recognition of the 2009 financial crisis. Mr. Bartel said what was occurring was the difference between what was expected and actual and bringing those amounts in 20 percent each year. Well over half of the 2009 downturn was in the June 30, 2011 valuation especially since the investment return was offset by good investment returns. The goal was to not inflate the contribution rate up if there was a volatile market as well as it was not recommended to lower fears if the investment market rose. Council Member Shepherd asked what the risk would be if Council chose to make a change to the five year asset averaging by either funding or not funding the AAL. 5 01/30/2012 Mr. Bartel said Council needed to look at the difference between the market value and the actuarial value which was the compromise between the smoothing and not. On June 30, 2011 the City had a market value of $44.8 million and the actuarial value being used to set the rate was $40 million. There were approximately ten percent of the assets not included so a $4 million change in the un-funded liability might increase the ARC by $500,000. Using smoothing for actuarial value of assets understated the contribution at the expense of smoothing, similarly if the investment return was particularly good it might overstate in a good investment years. Council Member Shepherd said there was an $8 million difference between 2008 and 2010. Mr. Bartel acknowledged that was correct. Council Member Shepherd asked why there was a $12 million change between 2009 and 2011. Mr. Bartel said the investment return for the City because of the timing of when the contribution was placed was consistently good. The $4 million difference was being used as an actuarial value below the market value so they were overstating the contribution by the $250,000. Council Member Burt said the newly hired non-public safety employees were coming in on a two tier retirement program of two percent at 60. Mr. Bartel mentioned those employees did not have an impact on the current actuarial discussion. He asked if in ten years half of the City’s employees were at two percent at 60, they would be in the equation to a fairly significant degree. So if the actuarial was looking into the future at a 30-year horizon, he asked how they would not impact the equation. Mr. Bartel said there was more than a 30-year horizon. For example, if the valuation was completed the day before the employee change was effective that valuation would determine an un-funded liability using no one in the new tier. However, if the valuation occurred the day after the benefit changed, and there were employees hired under the tier benefit program, the un-funded liability for those new employees and the actuarial liability would be zero. The un-funded liability did not change because there were new employees being hired, what would change was the normal cost component of the ARC. Council Member Burt asked for a scenario in ten years where half of the newly hired employees were at two percent at 60 retired at age 58 while the other half at age 63. He asked if it was correct to state those who retire at 6 01/30/2012 age 63, had attached to them less un-funded liability than those who retired at age 58. Mr. Bartel stated no. The scenario would be the employees retiring at age 63 had a lower actuarial liability. Although the retiree medical benefits may not have changes, they would begin drawing those benefits later than the earlier retirements. Council Member Burt said the period in which the City was paying the full amount for the employee before they were eligible for Medicare was significantly shorter. Mr. Bartel said that was correct so the employee’s liability would be lower on a per capita basis and their normal cost rate would be lower on a per capita basis. Council Member Burt asked if that was reflected in the fixed closed amortization rate. Mr. Bartel clarified the fixed closed amortization had no impact on the second tier employees. The fixed closed amortization had to do with the un- funded liability for employees in the first tier and that number would not change because of the second tier employees. Council Member Burt asked if the City moved forward with an open amortization rate, presumably that dollar amount would decline as far as the contribution based upon the change in the employee retirement age. Mr. Bartel stated no. If there was an un-funded liability and the funding policy was to pay the normal cost plus some amortization of the un-funded liability, the amortization on the un-funded liability was not being driven by the accrual for the new employees. It was not being driven by the normal cost because the policy was paying the normal cost. The topic of discussion was how the un-funded liability was being paid, none of which was due to the employees in the new tier. As time went on, the only way the new employees would impact the liability was one of two ways 1) if the City did not contribute to the normal cost for the new employees then they would contribute to a higher un-funded liability or 2) if the City thought the new employees were going to retire at age 61 but in actuality they retired at age 58 then the normal cost for the new employees would be too high or too low. Council Member Burt asked what the assumptions of the Firm were when they informed the City, if they did not move forward with the fixed close rate, at the outset they would be paying less than interest. He asked for confirmation that in ten years there was an expectation the annual payment 7 01/30/2012 would be reduced as a result of a rolling amortization that reflected a later retirement date. Mr. Bartel said in actuality the normal cost would be lower although that was not the amortization component. To clarify, whether the City accepted an open or closed amortization rate the new tier employees had little to no impact on the current amortization number; the impact would be on the Rate of Accrual not the payment on the un-funded liability. Council Member Burt said there were two alternatives presented the fixed closed amortization and the open rolling amortization. He asked why there was not an alternative based upon the interest. Mr. Bartel said the Firm had the information for a third alternative although since the majority of their clients amortized the un-funded liability as a level percentage of pay they did not include it. An amortization that was a level percentage of pay with a 7.50 percent investment return assumption on a 30-year amortization, the first year would be approximately six percent on the balance. Interest would accrue at 7.50 and the payment was six percent of the balance leaving a negative amortization until the City was below 20 years on the 30-year amortization period. Council Member Burt said with the fixed closed amortization the probability to be paid-off the liability was high within the 30-year period and an open rolling amortization was basically a reverse mortgage with the City paying less than the interest. Assuming there would always be an interest payment, Palo Alto did not want to go further into debt they wanted to pay more interest amount without necessarily taking on the principal. He asked why that was not an option. Mr. Bartel said the numbers would roughly be 7.75 percent of the un-funded liability of approximately $134 million. With that option the payment grew from $8.4 million to $10 million and there would be a contribution decrease as a percentage of pay. Council Member Burt said he would be interested in reviewing that option in more detail as an alternative. Vice Mayor Scharff asked for clarification on the process where the money was placed in a Trust account, then the money was taken to pay the Retiree Medical on a cash flow basis as it became due. Mr. Bartel confirmed yes, that was the current process. Vice Mayor Scharff asked how much would be owed for the current year, on a cash flow basis. 8 01/30/2012 Mr. Bartel said for FY11/12 the amount would be approximately $8.4 million if the City was only paying the benefits due to retirees. Vice Mayor Scharff said prior to the Actuarial Study the City was looking at paying $9.4 million and now it was $13.3 million but on a pure cash flow basis it would be at $8.4 million. Mr. Bartel said that was correct. Vice Mayor Scharff said on a cash basis there would have been an additional $1 million paid off. Mr. Bartel stated yes. Vice Mayor Scharff said the current recommendation was to pay off an additional $4 million. Mr. Bartel said yes. Vice Mayor Scharff said the Actuarial Study was a snapshot with changed assumptions which was compiled ever two-years. He asked if the suggestion was in two-years things would remain as is with the City paying the $13.3 million with no changes. Mr. Bartel noted reality interfered with what the Actuary expected to occur. Vice Mayor Scharff asked if the City did not pay the amount would they still be fine on a cash flow basis. Mr. Bartel agreed. Vice Mayor Scharff asked if the City would still be paying down on the amount if they continued to pay the $9 million as previously recommended. Mr. Bartel said yes. Vice Mayor Scharff said there was no obligation to pay more than $9 million. Mr. Bartel clarified there was no legal requirement to pay a higher amount. With that being said, the un-funded liability was due in large part because there were employees who were no longer working for the City. Vice Mayor Scharff noted soon the City would be paying more people to not work in the City than to work. 9 01/30/2012 Mr. Bartel said that was true. Vice Mayor Scharff said for example if the $3.8 million was not paid towards the un-funded liability it could be paid towards infrastructure. Mr. Bartel said yes. Vice Mayor Scharff said there were a number of un-funded liabilities throughout the City that drew a limited amount of money. The goal to pay off a funded amount was because of a future lack of income, a City did not retire, posing the argument of paying interest only. He understood not adding amounts for the future employees to pay although it was the past employees who did not pay off their portion that the present employees being dealt with. Mr. Bartel said that was an appropriate policy question. To the extent if it were possible to return to when Palo Alto initiated the Retiree Medical Benefit and set aside the cost of service each year, that would be generationally equitable. Unfortunately, going back was not an option; therefore, as an Actuary the recommendation was to set aside more than the cost of service for two reasons 1) there was a large number of retirees and the City was obligated to make those payments and 2) there was a large un-funded liability so setting money aside provided the advantage of future benefits being paid by interest rather than cash. Vice Mayor Scharff said the $14 million reduction came about because of the 90/10 cost sharing change in the medical plan. Mr. Bartel said that was correct. Vice Mayor Scharff said if the plan change went to 80/20 there would be an additional $14 million reduction. Mr. Bartel said he could not say the answer was yes. Hypothetically speaking he said the answer was yes. Vice Mayor Scharff said the City Council received different requests for cash, he asked why the Retire Medical Benefits trumped the other requests. The increase from $9 million to $14 million was not easily absorbed and the additional funds could be spent elsewhere. Mr. Bartel stated he was not qualified to respond on why one item was of a higher importance than another. Mr. Perez said an area of concern discussed in the Municipal Finance Groups was the eventual review by the Credit Rating Agencies in terms of the 10 01/30/2012 outstanding liability and how they were addressed. Yes, it was possible to not fund the liability fully and only pay the retiree obligation although there will come a time where the rating agencies will consider the liability. Vice Mayor Scharff said as long as the appropriate assumptions were chosen the ARC will show fully funded. He asked the amount of money that could be saved staying within the boundaries of the assumptions. Mr. Perez said if there were changes made to a 30-year amortization and the 7.61 percent rate of assumption there could be a savings of $860,000. Vice Mayor Scharff asked if the funds were being taken from the Reserves since the concessions were not received. Mr. Perez agreed that was a possibility. Vice Mayor Scharff noted taking funds from one Reserve to add to another Reserve provided less flexibility. Mr. Perez confirmed that would be the scenario for 2012 but Staff was not suggesting the same approach for 2013. Council Member Schmid said the question for the Actuary was what was the clear and true picture of costs and obligations. There was a recommended option outlined in the Actuarial Report that the City accept a discount rate of 7.25 percent although staying under Option 1 raised the confidence level of achievement and yet it maintained the same set of asset distributions. Mr. Bartel said that was correct. Council Member Schmid asked how long it took for an Actuarial Assessment to catch up with structural changes. As an Actuary the position was to have the City assume a greater risk although as a City, it was required to assume all final risk. His concern was staying with Option 1 was pushing more of the investments into a Hedge Fund scenario where risks had been exaggerated over the past few years. Mr. Bartel stated the Firm was not recommending Investment Option 1, 2, or 3. Council Member Schmid said there was a recommendation for Option 1. Mr. Bartel clarified if there was an incident where Option 1 was identified it was in error, he clearly noted the Firm was not investment advisors. 11 01/30/2012 Council Member Schmid read from the Council packet where Bartel and Associates had recommended select rate 55 percent confidence limit under Option 1. Mr. Bartel clarified the confidence level was noted for each Option but no single Option was recommended. Council Member Schmid asked how an Actuary could assist the City to understand when there was a structural change rather than a general cycle. Mr. Bartel said based on what the Investment Advisors were saying which was currently; if you were to invest more aggressively the volatility of the contribution and assets would be greater. He explained the volatility mattered when there was a large amount of assets relative to the payroll. It mattered less in the short run, particularly when the assets were smaller relative to the payroll. Council Member Schmid said the discussion at hand was on past obligations the City needed to pay off. Mr. Bartel answered yes. Council Member Schmid questioned the information saying the City was paying two times the amount for previous employees and the number was growing. Mr. Bartel acknowledged the growth and noted the expectation was the growth pattern would not be to the scope of the recent past. Council Member Schmid said it was important to be open with the community to provide them with what the City’s obligations were so there was an understanding of when items needed to be given up. Mr. Bartel agreed and said for that reason the percentage of the confidence level was recommended for the discount rate. Council Member Schmid asked for confirmation the Firm was recommending the 55 or 60 percent confidence level but were not recommending Option 1, 2, or 3. Mr. Bartel said that was correct. Council Member Schmid said the report indicated many people switched medical plans to PERSCare at the age of 65. He asked if that was where the $7.7 million came from. 12 01/30/2012 Mr. Bartel said according to the study performed Palo Alto had no active employees under the PERSCare medical plan. There were 11 percent of the retirees in PERSCare that were not yet Medicare eligible. Council Member Schmid said there was a contract that said the City would pay the second most expensive medical plan; therefore if retirees moved into PERSCare the City would not pay. Mr. Perez confirmed that contract was effective January 2007 and forward so any employee who retired prior to that date was eligible to shift into PERSCare at the City’s expense. Mayor Yeh said a question had been raised as cities began to see the liability eat into a higher percentage of their total budget his thought was what GASB would do beyond requiring cities to disclose what their liability was. He knew if there was a draft of GASB requiring cities to disclose their liability he asked what the timeframe would be for that information and how serious that development might be coming from them. From a legal perspective what type of authority did GASB have to draft that type of requirement. Mr. Bartel said if Mayor Yeh was referring to the Pension Disclosure Exposure Draft which did not require the City to fund it but it did require them to place on their city wide financial statement the pension un-funded liability. He had been told by GASB staff they would be following-up on the requirements and the Draft would be final by June 30, 2012. He said it would be effective for Palo Alto on their FY12/13 budget so when the June 30, 2013 financial statement was completed he believed the un-funded liability would appear on the pension side. GASB was following-up the Draft project with an Other Post Employee Benefit (OPEB) standard. Mayor Yeh asked when the Firm looked at the majority of cities’ financial situations what were the projections for what the implications the liability might cause besides the rating agencies downgrading cities. Would GASB acknowledge and accept cities filing for bankruptcy or would they request them to issue OPEB or Pension Obligation Bonds to meet their liability. Mr. Bartel said all of the rating agencies were aware of cities un-funded liabilities because they read the financial statements so he did not believe there would be a dramatic effect unless there was an agency not adequately setting money aside. Mayor Yeh said he was aware the rating agencies had gone under scrutiny for making their criteria more transparent as far as how they reach the rating for the different entities. He asked if there was knowledge as to what municipalities could anticipate once their transparency was affected. 13 01/30/2012 Mr. Perez acknowledged there had been concern amongst the financial groups and they had met with the rating agencies themselves without clarity. Part of the issue for the rating agencies to create a fixed pattern was the different cities were inconsistent with their liabilities and offered benefits where Palo Alto was on the upper end. Mayor Yeh said the process appeared as through there was a grading curve created and those who were closest to the 50 percent received an A. Mr. Perez noted many of the municipalities were on different reporting cycles and it was mentioned having a majority on the same reporting cycle created a smoother comparison for the rating agencies. Mayor Yeh suggested adding a separate line item to the budget process reflective of the health of the ARC showing where the City was in paying down the un-funded liability. Having the information readily available to Council would provide flexibility in decision making with the competing priorities requesting funds. Mr. Bartel noted the recommendation and understood there should be a range and a projection of how the un-funded liability would react as time passed. Mayor Yeh agreed on the understanding and noted as the valuation was completed every two years it could be a continuous update reflective of market performance. Council Member Klein asked why the interest rate remained the same on the liabilities as it did with the investments. As time went on and a person wished to reduce their payments they would refinance the loan and reduce the interest rate. Mr. Bartel rephrased the question for accuracy; as there was an un-funded liability of $133 million, if that amount could be borrowed at five percent, would the City not be better of borrowing the money at five percent giving it to CalPERS and have them earn their higher rate of return so the City was only paying five percent on the debt. Council Member Klein said that was one way of looking at the situation but not what he was referring to. His thought was moving forward using a number other than what was suggested by the Firm of 7.6 percent for the annual payment at what rate of interest would the debt increase. Mr. Bartel said the 7.6 percent was based on a lost opportunity. 14 01/30/2012 Council Member Klein asked why they could not consider the 7.6 percent as an unrealistically high number on the liability in the same manner as a bank earned money on the arbitrage. Mr. Bartel clarified when a discount rate was being used whether it was at 7.25 percent or 7.61 percent and the decision was to contribute $1 million less it was looked upon as a lost opportunity to earn that percentage of interest. If there was a thousand dollars owed annually it was discounted and if money was contributed the question was how much was needed to reach the thousand dollars so the investment return needed to be used in both directions. Council Member Klein disagreed with the mathematics because people frequently borrowed at one rate and received an investment return at a different rate. Mr. Bartel said if money was borrowed at a lower rate of return, contributed the money to CalPERS and expected to receive a higher rate of return was considered an interest arbitrage. He understood there was a chance the City may come out ahead in that situation; however, there was no certainty. Council Member Klein stated he was not suggesting the City borrow their full debt amount but rather borrow on a year to year basis. Mr. Bartel asked who the lender would be. Council Member Klein was not certain who the lender would be. Mr. Bartel said the lender mattered because if the City was not making their contribution to the plan but borrowing from the plan it did not make financial sense. Council Member Klein corrected he believed he would be borrowing the money from the recipients or the beneficiaries of the plan not the plan itself. Mr. Bartel stated by borrowing from the plan what was happening was the amount being borrowed was not earning the highest interest rate. Council Member Klein disagreed, he felt borrowing the money and using the arbitrage method would benefit the plan. Mr. Bartel said any money not contributed to the plan or borrowed from the plan was not earning interest under the plan. Council Member Klein said he would be earning interest because the money would be invested. 15 01/30/2012 Mr. Bartel gave an example of the City owing $1 million each year from today. The valuation valued the $1 million discounted at 7.25 percent making its actual value $930,000. There were two choices 1) put $930,000 into CalPERS today or 2) put $1 million into CalPERS one year from today. Either of those options would earn the City the 7.25 percent interest. His understanding of the recommendation by Council Member Klein was the City was not going to contribute the $930,000 and was going to pay 4 percent interest on $130,000 and somehow that transaction would accumulate to $1 million. Council Member Klein presented the situation as the City owed $1 million; the question was how much would that $1 million grow to in a year at 7 percent and why was it not calculated in the same manner as when an individual borrowed money from a bank. Mr. Bartel said the misunderstanding was the money was not being borrowed from anyone, so the analogy did not work. The reality was the City was borrowing money from the plan and the plan was saying if you want to use an expected return of four percent than the un-funded liability would be substantially higher because there was going to be less interest earned. Council Member Klein said there the bank was a potential lender. Mr. Bartel said that was correct, or there was someone who would loan the City the money at a reasonable interest rate. Council Member Klein was aware with the City’s current credit rating an amount of money could be borrowed at a four to four and a half percent. The benchmark was if it was necessary to borrow money, it was possible to do so at an amount substantially less than the discount rate being used. Mr. Bartel noted four percent was a tax advantaged interest rate so if there was money borrowed against the debt he did not believe it could be at a tax advantaged rate and the City could not receive the arbitrage unless they actually borrowed money from a lender. The caveat was if the money was borrowed and contributed to CalPERS there would be a significantly greater than zero risk that CalPERS investments would earn less than what was being paid on the debt service. Council Member Klein agreed there would always be a risk with arbitrage. Mr. Bartel said the issue became whether the risk was an appropriate one for the City and the taxpayers to take. 16 01/30/2012 Council Member Holman said as the City looked forward at increased medical costs and rates of returns that were less than they use to be she asked how municipalities would not be forced to look at addressing retiree benefits. Mr. Perez acknowledged Staff needed to continue to review ways in which to reduce the expense. In reviewing the trend data it took from 2002 to 2008 for the City to double the medical payment for current city wide health care without the additional cost to pension. He agreed that route was not sustainable and he noted the national average according to the Kaiser Study http://ehbs.kff.org/, in terms of employer/employee cost sharing was 70/30 whereas Palo Alto was achieving a 95/5 for miscellaneous and 90/10 for fire fighters. He added there was a significant reduction in cost when PERSCare was eliminated for the equation. Council Member Holman felt it was important for the pubic to be informed that any changes in the cost of healthcare was not without difficulty and there were limitations the City had to abide by. Council Member Shepherd noted healthcare was an untained field as to how municipalities were explaining and handling their un-funded liabilities. She was interested in a better understanding of how to roll out the liability a little longer in order for the City to be more frugal with its cash flow. She was aware there was $34,000 placed in the CalPERS Irrevocable Trust and asked if those funds would always belong to Palo Alto. Mr. Perez said the City would carry the risk of investment but the funds would remain the property of Palo Alto. The funds could be pulled out by the City at any time as well as added to in the future. Council Member Shepherd asked how much medical plan flexibility was available at retirement or was it scripted when employees were hired. Mr. Perez said his understanding was there could not be changes made to current retirees, for those hired after 2004 where there had been changes made those such as the vesting period and PERSCare was not an option unless the employee chose to pay the difference out of pocket. Mr. Bartel corrected the Firm was not saying the City could not change it for current employees they were saying they were not expecting Palo Alto to make that change to the benefits. City Attorney, Molly Stump noted the retiree medical issue was an area still in its infancy although the California Supreme Court issued a decision late 2011 clarifying benefits to retirees could be vested dependant upon the language in the various agreements, facts, and circumstances in which the employees received their benefits. The courts left open for discussion to 17 01/30/2012 some degree the question of medical benefits to be paid upon retirement to current employees. Robert Moss expressed his initial reaction to the amount of money the City was committed to spend for healthcare which was only a portion to the total cost of retirement. The un-funded liabilities depended in large part on assumptions, which tended to be adjustable and the manner in which CalPERS invested the funds. He predicted there would be a rise in healthcare costs of approximately 6.5 percent annually except with programs such as Kaiser so he suggested capping cost the City was willing to pay thereby reducing the overhead cost and swaying employees to accept the lower cost medical plan. Council Member Espinosa said Me. Bartel had mentioned if his Firm was to have a conference with the Milliman Actuarial Firm there would be similarities in the manner in which the assumptions were reached. He asked for clarification on the areas where Milliman would disagree with the Bartel Firm. Mr. Bartel believed Milliman would agree with his Firms’ assessment of the Confidence Level although he supposed in their report they would have used a 7.61 percent for the discount. He suspected they would disagree with the medical trend numbers but he expected they would have matched the new CalPERS demographics numbers, and they would have agreed with what as being said with respect to the $3.4 million actuarial load but it was unlikely they would have implemented the assumption. There was no doubt if they looked closely at the demographics of the medical plan at retirement they would agree with the change similarly to the Medical eligibility. They clearly had a different view on the amortization where they would have accepted a rolling 30-year. Council Member Espinosa asked how the presented information was being teed up back to Staff across the City and to retirees assisting them in understanding the broader context of the challenges the City was facing. Mr. Perez said Staff had presented the City Manger with draft presentation slides regarding a similar discussion. There had been questions on how the un-funded liability grew to the extent it had and as he had mentioned earlier it doubled in a matter of four years. It was important to have the discussion regarding the pension and healthcare, how those rising costs affected the budget and the consequences to the services offered throughout the City. City Manager, James Keene said over the past couple of year Staff had been shown charts reflective of the trajectory of the increases. 18 01/30/2012 Mayor Yeh asked for confirmation that absent any Council action Staff would be returning at Mid-Year with a Budget Amendment Ordinance to increase funding the ARC by $2.3 million for the General Fund and potentially $1.5 million for the Enterprise Fund. However, if Council wished to take action the options were 1) accepting the minimum resulting in growth in the un-funded liability, 2) to hold the un-funded liability steady, or 3) 30-year closed amortization. Mr. Keene mentioned there was a schedule action at the Mid-Year although technically the adjustments did not need to be reconciled until before the end of the Fiscal Year. He explained no matter the Motion provided during the meeting or at the Mid-year Council had some flexibility after the fact. Mr. Bartel wanted to ensure the Council had clarity whether a 28 or a 27- year amortization would be paying in the initial period less than interest meaning on an interest only option the City ended up paying more. Mayor Yeh said in preparation for the Mid-Year and the budget decisions it would be helpful if the Council received the data numbers indicated from the Milliman low to the Bartel high with the spread in between. Mr. Bartel asked for clarification if the question was how much work would be required to supply those numbers. Mayor Yeh clarified his interest was to receive a definite number and its meaning if the Council chose the interest only option. Mr. Bartel said his Firm could provide any of those calculations but he was still uncertain as to what was being requested. He noted the numbers provided to the Council and City Staff in the presentation were the Firm’s best estimations for the liability and contribution and they did not think in terms of minimum or maximum. He mentioned if the City paid interest on the un-funded liability the ARC would be higher than what was being presented. In the range of order it could be considered the Milliman minimum or the Bartel best guess and the no-negative amortization as being an upper limit on the short term contribution. Council Member Klein was troubled by Council considering Motions considering neither the agenda nor the Staff memo requested one. Ms. Stump stated Council had a fare amount of flexibility in the term providing feedback. Mayor Yeh clarified there was leeway for a Motion as long as it stayed within confine of the discussion. 19 01/30/2012 Ms. Stump agreed the parameters having been laid out were appropriate to be included in a Motion. Council Member Klein felt there was not fair notice given to the public or Council itself to make a decision on the numbers involved. Mayor Yeh noted his position was for Staff to return with more analysis and not to take a firm position. Ms. Stump said her advise was predicated the Motion being a request for additional information and not for Council to be making a decision or adjustment to the ARC itself. MOTION: Mayor Yeh moved, seconded by Council Member Shepherd to direct Staff to return additional analysis conducted with the consultant for the different levels of the ARC contributions for the nine different assumption areas for the February 28, 2012 Finance Committee. Council Member Shepherd understood there was no boiler plate to the assumptions and liabilities although it was being worked on and she hoped in time there would be a smoother manner in which to go about making these decisions. She felt it was important to have the ranges brought back prior to the Mid-Year. Council Member Schmid asked for clarification on the Motion; it was for Staff to return to Council with variations. Mayor Yeh stated the Motion was for Staff to work with the Consultant to achieve the costs for the additional analysis. Council Member Schmid said the value of the report before them and the discussion during the meeting was having an independent Actuary inform the Council on what his considered opinion was on what Palo A lot may face in the future. He wanted to ensure the Motion was not requesting any modification of the independent report. Mr. Perez agreed the report had been previously approved by the Council and the work being brought back to the Council was in addition to and not an alteration to the report from the independent Consultant. Council Member Schmid said if Council did not agree with the numbers, it was something that should be stated publicly and work with the employees and public about the consequences. Vice Mayor Scharff asked for clarification on the Motion language “working with the Consultant for costs for additional analysis.” His interpretation of 20 01/30/2012 the Motion was returning to Council with additional analysis not costs for additional analysis. Mayor Yeh clarified there would be a cost associated with the additional analysis so the Motion should be corrected to read: to have Staff return with costs for additional analysis conducted with the Consultant. Mr. Bartel said the Mayor had suggested for future valuations to include a range of contributions, he agreed and recommended that should be done in conjunction with the impact that range would have on future un-funded liability. He asked if that information was the intended information being requested or were the ranges being sought strictly for the range of ARC. Mayor Yeh said his desire was what type and amount of information could be compiled by February 28, 2012. Mr. Bartel explained both models with the ranges could be turned around by February 28th. Vice Mayor Scharff felt the Motion should read as followed: to have Staff return with a band of costs setting forth the different assumptions to fund the ARC. Mayor Yeh concurred that was the intent of the Motion. Vice Mayor Scharff understood Council was receiving the additional information because they wanted to make a determination on how much to fund the ARC; if there was a determination there should be a report to reflect the decision. Council’s decision to fund should be based on the best information provided on the assumptions. If the Motion was for additional analysis without a final report to reflect the decision that came from the additional information he did not see the necessity of the additional information. Mr. Bartel said if Council requested his Firm to prepare a report using the 7.61 percent discount rate, he would inform then that would not be his recommendation although 7.61 percent was not out of the range of reasonableness in assumptions. His interpretation of the Motion was not a change in acceptance of the report but a request for more information so the Council could make a future decision as to whether or not to rescind the acceptance and request the report be redone. Vice Mayor Scharff said if a decision was made to rescind the acceptance of the report based on the additional information that would lead to redoing the report. He noted his understanding of the Bond Rating was the report was reviewed to verify it matched up with the contribution. 21 01/30/2012 Ms. Stump clarified rescinding the report was not on the agenda and would not be an appropriate action during this meeting. Council Member Burt asked for clarification if the City chose the option of the full payment of the interest then initial annual payment would exceed the initial alternative payment if the City was paying down the principal. Mr. Bartel clarified the 28-year amortization had no payment on the principal amount; the payment effecting the principal began once there was less than 20-years remaining on the amortization. Council Member Burt said the dollar amount the City would pay in the initial years would actually be higher if they switched to the interest only alternative rather than if the City was paying down the principal on a 28- year amortization. Mr. Bartel stated yes but there was no payment going towards the principal for a minimum of eight years on a 28-year amortization. Council Member Klein said there were more than three options since there was no required payment amount. The Actuary recommended three options for the Council but those were not the only options available. He thought the information requested in the Motion was included in the report and Staff merely needed to extract it and enter it into a separate sheet. Mr. Bartel noted the impact on the ARC was not included in the report. The report covered the impact on the un-funded liability. Council Member Klein believed he heard several numbers discussed throughout the meeting regarding what would lower the ARC. Mr. Perez said that was correct. Staff had derived numbers outside of the report they had received from Mr. Bartel such as the 30-year open amortization. Council Member Klein argued the numbers were readily available if they had been discussed in the meeting so his confusion was why the report needed to be re-written. He requested a small report showing the five or so differences in the dollar amounts with the ARC. Mr. Bartel said the clarification he needed was whether Council wanted to know in addition to the difference in the ARC what the impact in the un- funded liability would be as time went by. 22 01/30/2012 Mayor Yeh clarified the value of having the additional information was the Council would have a greater certainty of the impact on the un-funded liability within the two-year timeframe before the next Actuary Report produced. There was practical decision to be made at a mid year point and a budget being prepared for the upcoming Fiscal Year. Ultimately he was confident in the decision made met GASB requirements. The reason the interest only options was provided was because it was a policy goal of keeping the un-funded liability at a constant. The question was did the interest only payments achieve that goal or were there other payment streams that would not surpass it. Mr. Bartel agreed the interest only payment method did achieve that goal. If under the current amortization method, the un-funded liability will be growing over the next 28 years or the next eight years and only then would it begin to decline. If the policy goal was to not heave un-funded liability grow, the answer would be over the next eight years using the 28-year amortization method would be contrary to the policy. Mayor Yeh agreed, with the explanation it did not make sense to include the interest only method. The two numbers in question were 1) the low at $9.8 million which was what had been formerly budgeted for the contribution for the FY12 as recommended by the Milliman Group versus 2) the $9.8 million plus the $2.3 million under the new actuarial analysis, that was the band and both were GASB compliant. As Council Member Klein noted as long as there was a range of numbers the Council could make their decision. Mr. Perez was aware the $9.8 million needed to be higher to fund the ARC but the question was to what degree. Mayor Yeh said if Staff knew the $9.8 million was not sufficiently high was Council comfortable as a body to choose a number that Staff was now currently planning to bring back. He recommended changing the language of the Motion to: for Staff to bring back to the Mid-Year budget meeting the Staff recommendation and allow Council to pick out the assumptions they did not wish to include at that point. Mr. Perez noted Mr. Bartel had said he had presented his level of recommendation and did not recommend a change. Vice Mayor Scharff felt the current Motion provided the framework for an intellectual decision. He agreed with a brief report with the additional numbers would be sufficient unless Staff believed there would be more needed to meet with the Bond Council to explain how they arrived at the numbers. 23 01/30/2012 Mr. Perez said the steps being outlined did not reflect concern with respect to the rating agencies. If the Council were to make substantive changes then there may be cause to revisit. Council Member Shepherd it appeared to her that each one of the differentials from the Milliman Report had a value for the ARC that could be easily distributed to review the out of pocket expense. Council Member Schmid asked Staff to provide the truest, most straightforward response to what was the City’s liability on future medical benefits. Mr. Perez said in order to reach the truest number he would take the actuarial load, which could be lowered a couple of percentages, Mr. Bartel may not be comfortable lowering it more than two percent. Mr. Bartel may say on actuarial load there was no movement, on some other number he may say I could conceive a slight change and supply the range and what it would do to both the ARC and the long-term liability. That was the type of scenario Staff believed they could return to Council by the 28th of February in a short report. MOTION PASSED: 8-0 Price absent Retiree Healthcare Plan January 1, 2011 and June 30, 2011 GASB 45 Actuarial Valuations Follow-up Analysis Presented by John E. Bartel Prepared by Deanna Van Valer Adam Zimmerer Bartel Associates, LLC February 28, 2012 22/28/12 Background Review Items: Without Major Caveat May include minor caveat, for example: “Rolling amortization period meets GASB 45 accounting standards but does not meet a funding policy requiring unfunded liability be paid off.” With Major Caveat “Assumption selected by City. Bartel Associates believes assumption is not appropriate.” Contribution Rate Impact: Results are all relative to: 2011/12 ARC of $13.478 million 2012/13 ARC of $14.242 million Results are not additive and may be different if multiple selections are made 32/28/12 Methods & Assumptions Without Major Caveat 7.25%7.61% 2012/134. Discount Rate 2% Load for PEMHCA no Load 2011/123. Actuarial Load 5 Year recognition Market Value 2011/122. Asset Smoothing Fixed (28 Years) YearDescriptionItem Rolling (30 Years) 2011/121. Amortization Method 42/28/12 Methods & Assumptions With Major Caveat YearDescriptionItem 80-90% Eligible 100% Eligible 2011/128. Medicare Eligibility Experience Based No Change at Retirement 2011/127. Medical Plan at Retirement IncorporateDo not Incorporate 2011/126. CalPERS’ Experience Study 9%/9.4% for 2013 Grading to 5% in 2021 & Beyond 6.5% for 2009 Grading to 5.85% in 2018 & Beyond 2011/125. Medical Trend 52/28/12 Methods & Assumptions Without Caveat 0.5 2012/134. Discount Rate 0.3 2011/123. Actuarial Load 0.3 2011/122. Asset Smoothing Year Reduction in ARC if Assumption/Method Not ChangedItem $ 0.3 million 2011/121. Amortization Method 62/28/12 Methods & Assumptions With Caveat 0.2 2011/128. Medicare Eligibility 0.8 2011/127. Medical Plan at Retirement 0.9 2011/126. CalPERS’ Experience Study Year Reduction in ARC if Assumption/Method Not ChangedItem $ 0.3 million 2011/125. Medical Trend FINANCE COMMITTEE DRAFT EXCERPT Special Meeting February 28, 2012 1. Retiree Medical Discussion Lalo Perez, Administrative Services Director said per the Finance Committee direction Staff returned with Bartel Associates to have a discussion around eight of the amortization methods and assumptions. John Bartel, President, Bartel Associates, LLC, explained his firm had separated out the eight items into categories they would be willing to change without a major caveat. The Fiscal Year (FY) 2011/12 Annual Required Contribution (ARC) was currently at $13.5 million which was a large increase from the prior year of $3.7 million. The FY12/13 ARC was anticipated to be $14.2 million representative of a $700,000 increase over FY11/12. The first four items of the amortization method were 1) changing from a 28 year fixed to a 30 year rolling amortization period which would impact FY11/12, 2) elimination of asset smoothing and going to a market value of assets which would impact the FY11/12, 3) a 2 percent load because of CalPERS increasing premiums at a lower rate than claims were growing, and 4) the discount rate which impacted the FY12/13 which was currently recommended at 7.25 percent and the maximum discount rate accepted by California Employees’ Retirement Trust (CEBRT) was 7.61 percent. The remaining four items were healthcare trends; 1) if Bartel used the same trend as Milliman, Bartel would caveat that as being selected by the City which would impact FY11/12, 2) if the CalPERS experience Study which reflected the demographic changes and improvements on mortality was not incorporated it would impact FY11/12, 3) retirees were selecting the higher cost medical plan but there was no recognition of that information in the prior study, and 4) there was no Medicare eligibility recognition in the prior study that some of the employees were not paying into Medicare and may not be eligible. To summarize the points in order of magnitude; 1) extending the amortization period and going to a rolling amortization period would reduce the FY11/12 ARC by $300,000, 2) asset smoothing would reduce the ARC $300,000, 3) elimination of the actuarial load reduced the ARC an additional $300,000, 4) changing the discount rate would reduce the ARC $500,000 but not until FY12/13, 5) the healthcare trend change would reduce the ARC by $300,000, 6) the CalPERS Experience Study would reduce it by $900,000, 7) the medical plan at retirement $800,000, and 8) the Medicare eligibility by $200,000. Council Member Price asked, of the items listed the amortization, asset smoothing, actuarial load, and discount rate, if they could be used in combination. Mr. Bartel clarified the recommendation was for the City to use what had been presented in the report. He recognized that the City may not agree with all of their recommendations. If the City chose to not accept their recommendations as they were, the first four items could be used in combination. If the City chose to select a change among the first four items the changes would be within the range of reasonableness of actuarial methods and assumptions. The remaining four items could be thought of as being outside the range of reasonableness for what Bartel would choose for actuarial assumptions. Chair Shepherd asked if the previous actuarial, Milliman, had presented their recommendations in the same manner or was Bartel more aggressive. Mr. Perez mentioned items 6 through 8 were probably not feasible. With respect to the contrast, the discount rate was not a good comparison since at the time of Milliman’s representation the rate was given without choice; the smoothing was not an option at that time either, but the rolling 30 year amortization was the method Milliman was using. Vice Mayor Scharff said Bartel was suggesting a discount rate of 7.25 percent. Mr. Bartel answered yes. Vice Mayor Scharff asked if the City chose the 7.61 percent discount rate would that affect the FY12/13 but not the FY11/12. Mr. Bartel stated that was correct. Vice Mayor Scharff asked if the decision needed to be made now or was there time to wait a year to gather more information. Mr. Perez felt obtaining additional information prior to finalizing a discount rate decision was a good option. When the Mid-Year was brought before the Council for the FY12 ARC the discount rate could be incorporated in the discussion. When the proposed FY13 budget was brought before Council in May of 2012 the dialogue for the discount rate for that year should be discussed. Vice Mayor Scharff asked what the thought process was between the 7.61 percent versus the 7.25 percent. Mr. Bartel encouraged the Finance Committee to think of the 7.61 percent as a 50 percent confidence level for an extended period of time. Given the known information there should be an expectation that over the next 20 years CalPERS might earn 7.61 percent. He noted his firm was recommending a confidence level that was higher than 50 percent for two reasons 1) the current investment market expectations in the short run were below 7.61 percent and 2) they preferred a higher confidence level of 55 or 60 percent because bad news had a heavier weight than good news. His firm believed setting the rate below what was expected might mitigate the negative. Vice Mayor Scharff asked to confirm the difference with the discount rate for FY13. Mr. Bartel said the difference was $500,000. Vice Mayor Scharff asked why the report mentioned a difference of $.7 million additional. He wanted to know if that was all four items combined for FY13. Mr. Bartel said there was a component of the $700,000 that was the normal dollar increase because the contribution and the amortization were designed to be an increasing dollar amount, a level percentage of pay using CalPERS 3.25 aggregate payroll. The normal expected dollar increase was calculated to be $400,000. Council Member Burt said on slide 6 the title seemed convoluted “Reduction in ARC if Assumption/Method was not Changed”. Mr. Bartel said the attempt was to signify if the Milliman assumption was maintained and the City did not accept Bartel’s recommendations for a change. Council Member Burt said his confusion was Bartel used the word change under two opposing Council questions. Mr. Bartel clarified the Milliman report used methods and assumptions that were under the left hand column of the slide presentation numbers 4 and 5. The only exception to that information was item 4. Council Member Burt suggested the Finance Committee members re- label slide 6 to reflect a better description which would be Impact of Bartel Changes. Mr. Bartel agreed the changed title would be accurate. Chair Shepherd asked for a better understanding of the expectation of a form of standardization in the upcoming years for assumptions analysis where all cities would be looking at the same type of assumption. Mr. Bartel did not believe that would be the case. There would continue to be different actuarial firms with different ideas of what would happen in the future. Mr. Perez said one standard was that all agencies would be required to report in the same time period which was June 30 of each year. Chair Shepherd said the purpose of the exercise was to achieve a good estimate as to the real amount of money the City should have for the retirees. Mr. Bartel explained the nature of an Actuarial was to have a highly educated process to estimate the best case scenario for their client in their future. In reviewing items 1 through 4, number 1 had no impact on the liability it had to do with how the City was paying off the un- funded liability. Chair Shepherd said she was unaware that not all employees paid into Medicare. Mr. Perez said paying into Medicare was not mandated for employees hired prior to April of 1986. Mr. Bartel noted prior to that date people were not required to pay into Medicare and those who were not continued to not pay into the fund. Chair Shepherd said those who did not pay into Medicare had no government safety net. Mr. Bartel explained an individual who did not pay Medicare through the City may have paid into Medicare through another job or had a Medicare eligible spouse. In looking at the retirees over the age of 65 he felt the assumption of 80 to 90 percent of the employees being eligible was fairly accurate. Vice Mayor Scharff asked if Mr. Bartel surveyed the City of Palo Alto employees to achieve the assumption of 80 to 90 percent. Mr. Bartel said one of the challenges he faced was for the City’s retirees who were currently Medicare eligible, he could not be certain what their hire dates were. Based on the eligibility for retirement there were assumptions made by his firm on who was hired prior to April 1986. Vice Mayor Scharff clarified the firm reviewed the current retirees over the age of 65. Mr. Bartel replied yes, over the age of 65 who were not receiving Medicare. Vice Mayor Scharff asked if the assumption made was they were not receiving Medicare because they were not eligible. Mr. Bartel answered yes because their expectation was if someone was eligible for Medicare under the CalPERS system they participated mandatorily. Vice Mayor Scharff asked what was used to determine the 80 to 90 percent assumption. Mr. Bartel said they used 80 to 90 depending on whether the employee was safety or miscellaneous. They used 80 percent for safety and 90 percent for miscellaneous. Vice Mayor Scharff said if the firm used the numbers from the actual retirees there should be a real number to work with. Mr. Bartel agreed they had data for the current retirees over the age of 65 who were currently receiving Medicare benefits or not. Vice Mayor Scharff asked if the firm had the exact number of retirees who were and were not on Medicare why the assumption was 80 to 90 and not an exact figure. Mr. Bartel said because the actual number was slightly higher than the 80 to 90 percent but of the retirees over the age of 65 they believed not all of them were hired before April 1986. He chose to be conservative relative to the actual calculation to account for those retirees hired after April 1986. Vice Mayor Scharff thought the ARC dealt with future retirees and not those who were already receiving benefits. Mr. Bartel said it was important to understand that ARC did two things, the sum of the normal cost for current employees and the amortization of the un-funded liabilities. The un-funded liabilities included the liability for current retirees. It was also important to understand the assumption had no impact on the current retirees who were over the age of 65 because the firm knew whether they were eligible for Medicare or not. The assumption was only necessary for the retirees or active employees who had not yet made the Medicare eligibility age. Vice Mayor Scharff clarified the goal was to review employees who no longer worked for the City but were not 65 years of age. Mr. Bartel corrected the assumption applied to both the current employees that were hired before April 1986 and those employees and retirees who were not yet 65 years of age. Council Member Burt asked if the assumptions being made for current employees were different from the known existing retirees. Mr. Bartel said he was breaking existing retirees into two groups. One group was already Medicare eligible. There was no assumption for them because the firm already knew their eligibility status. However, active employees whose hire date was known were different. The firm assumed everyone hired after April 1986 would be Medicare eligible and only a percentage of those hired after that date would be Medicare eligible. MOTION: Vice Mayor Scharff moved, seconded by Council Member Burt to recommend to Council to change (items 1-4) amortization method, asset smoothing, actuarial load, and put off the issue of the discount rate to 2013. Vice Mayor Scharff said initially he supported the fixed 28 year amortization method but the more he thought about it there was no logical reason to pay off the un-funded liability. The current un-funded liability was built up by previous generations and he did not see the equity in the current generation bearing the burden on the budget which in fact affected employee salaries, infrastructure needs, and services. He felt the City was fine with the asset smoothing and actuarial load as it was before and the change was too large too quick. Council Member Burt summarized out a $3.6 million recommendation it was being suggested that $2.7 million be adopted. He said the consensus on the discount rate with the ten year horizon was the City would not hit the 7.25 percent. The following decade it would rise back up so much that it would cover the net from the prior decade. This recommendation was based on optimism. Council Member Price supported the Motion and appreciated further discussion of the discount rate be deferred because there needed to be a better understanding. Chair Shepherd felt item 8; the Medicare eligibility at $200,000, should have been included in the first four items. With the amortization method there was room for change without huge impact. MOTION PASSED: 4-0 Chair Shepherd asked if the Finance Committee decision would be in the Council Consent Calendar. Mr. Perez said Staff may want to incorporate it into the Mid-Year discussion which would be an Action Item. Chair Shepherd asked for the General Fund percentage. Mr. Perez said $1.96 million or 70 percent.