HomeMy WebLinkAboutStaff Report 6754
City of Palo Alto (ID # 6754)
City Council Staff Report
Report Type: Action Items Meeting Date: 4/18/2016
City of Palo Alto Page 1
Summary Title: Sustainability/Climate Action Plan and Annual Earth Day
Report
Title: Review Annual Earth Day Report and Provide Direction to Staff
Regarding Sustainability and Climate Action Plan (S/CAP), Including Feedback
Regarding 80 Percent by 2030 Greenhouse Gas Reduction Target, Guiding
Principles and Decision Criteria, Implementation Priorities, and Next Steps.
From: City Manager
Lead Department: City Manager
Recommendation
Staff recommends that the City Council receive the 2016 Earth Day Report, review the attached
Draft Sustainability/Climate Action Plan (S/CAP) and provide direction to Staff regarding plan
goals, guiding principles and decision criteria, implementation programs, and next steps.
Executive Summary
The attached 2016 Earth Day Report summarizes the City’s sustainability related initiatives and
progress since Earth Day 2015. While staff is prepared to address Council questions regarding
that report, the focus of this session is on the Draft S/CAP.
The City’s Office of Sustainability, working with other City staff, consulting partner DNV GL, and
hundreds of community members, has researched global best practices for greenhouse gas
(GHG) emission reductions and resource conservation, and evaluated the costs and benefits for
a range of carbon reduction strategies. Based on that work, staff is recommending Council
review the attached Draft Sustainability and Climate Action Plan (S/CAP), aimed at delivering
pace-setting GHG reductions and sustainability strategies in ways that enhance quality of life,
prosperity and resilience in Palo Alto.
The Draft S/CAP includes potential key elements for Council’s consideration and discussion,
with the understanding that the S/CAP is a long-term plan with varying time horizons for
potential changes.
Background[1]
In the face of the global climate challenge:
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· The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has determined that “we risk severe,
pervasive and irreversible impacts” from climate change, and need “substantial”
greenhouse gas emissions reductions (of 40-70% or more) by mid-century.
· The international community of 192 nations, meeting at the COP21 conference in Paris in
December, agreed to “holding the increase in the global average temperature to
well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the
temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels....” and to commit to the
“highest possible ambition.”
· President Obama’s March 19, 2015 Executive Order requires the federal government to
cut GHG emissions by 40% by 2025 from 2008 levels.
· The State of California has committed (through Assembly Bill 32—the California Global
Warming Solutions Act of 2006), to reduce its GHG emissions by 20% from 1990
levels by 2020. Executive Order S-3-05, signed in June 2005, set an aspirational goal
to reduce emissions 80% by 2050. Executive Order B-30-15 (April 2015) established
a California GHG reduction target of 40% below 1990 levels by 2030. SB 350 (2015)
requires increasing California’s renewable energy mix to 50 percent and doubling
the efficiency of existing buildings by 2030.9
· Palo Alto has a long history of sustainability initiatives, including adoption of its first
Sustainability Plan in 2002; one of the first municipal climate plans in the US in
2007; a history of exceeding energy efficiency standards in every building code
cycle since 2007; and many sustainability-related policies and initiatives and
provision of carbon neutral electricity in 2013, which have already reduced
emissions by an estimated 35% from 1990 levels. Also in 2013, Palo Alto hired its
first Chief Sustainability Officer, tasked with helping weave these many initiatives
into a focused sustainability strategy.
· In 2014, Palo Alto engaged DNV GL to work with staff to develop this Sustainability and
Climate Action Plan. After extensive research and analysis, an active community
engagement process (including a five hour, 300+ participant community climate
summit) and several study sessions with the UAC, CAC and Council, staff has
developed the draft plan and recommendations attached here.
Discussion
At a broad level, in the course of considering and adopting this new S/CAP, Palo Alto must
decide:
- What it will take to maintain its climate leadership;
- Whether to move from carbon neutral electricity to a carbon neutral utility to eventually
become a carbon neutral city (which will require major changes in transportation and
potentially land use as well as energy use);
- Which specific GHG emission reduction strategies and more general sustainability
strategies it wishes to embrace;
- What level of investment it will make to implement those strategies;
- How quickly this could be done.
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What the S/CAP is (and is not)
The S/CAP is intended as a strategic plan that proposes high-level implementation pathways,
but not detailed implementation strategies and work plans; those will be developed, subject to
Council guidance, by staff. The S/CAP sets strategic direction and overall goals, and suggests
initial priority actions. Because of future uncertainty and changing technology, staff plans to
develop more granular five-year work plans and short-term programs, rather than attempt to
build a 15-year work plan.
The S/CAP presents a portfolio of plausible strategies (that have been analyzed for cost
effectiveness, pace of implementation, mitigation cost, etc.) to begin to address a target goal of
reducing GHG emissions to 80% below 1990 levels by 2030 (referred to as the 80x30 goal),
given both technologies existing today and technology maturation trends underway. A target
goal can be a useful tool to identify the efforts and assess the tradeoffs of different actions and
timelines. The plan is intended to provide possible pathways that show net positive financial
benefit, and an estimate of the upfront investment required to generate those benefits. The
City’s Office of Sustainability has identified potential sources of funds, and perhaps another
follow-up work plan is to focus on the specific financing/investment pathways that could drive
these net benefits to the community.
This plan is a scenario, not a prediction. While its directions are very clear—move toward deep
de-carbonization through the suggested portfolio of measures—the specific rates and impacts
are best estimates based on currently available information in a rapidly changing technology
landscape. The S/CAP is based on assumptions—for example, about the rate of decline in
electric vehicle pricing and the rate of adoption of efficiency and electrification measures—and
the GHG reduction budgets presented here are sensitive to those assumptions.[2] Subject to
Council interest and resourcing, staff and consultants can re-run the S/CAP model with different
assumptions.
Palo Alto’s trajectory
Palo Alto’s sustainability and GHG reduction trajectory is summarized in Figure 1. Reducing
1990 emissions of 780,900 metric tons CO2 equivalent (MT CO2e) by 80% requires reductions
equaling 624,720 tons.
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Figure 1
The estimated 36% GHG reductions to date were achieved—largely over the past 10 years—
through building efficiency measures and introduction of carbon neutral electricity (as well as
societal trends such as more efficient appliances, not shown explicitly here).
Over the next 15 years, “business as usual” measures that are underway even if Palo Alto takes
no additional steps—including both those dictated by external forces (ranging from state policy
to improved federal vehicle fleet efficiency standards, as modeled by the Comprehensive Plan
consultants), plus Palo Alto measures already in motion (such as existing CPAU efficiency
incentive programs, Palo Alto’s existing Green Building Ordinance and Reach Code, and the
Bicycle and Pedestrian Plan)—will bring emissions down to an estimated 52% of 1990 levels,
well ahead of California’s 40% by 2030 GHG reduction goal.
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Reductions to date BAU & Existing Measures to 2030 SCAP initiatives Total
1990-2015 2015-2030 2015-2030 1990-2030
-36% -16% -28% -80%
Efficiency BAU reductions Rethinking Mobility
Carbon neutral
electricity
State EV adoption rates Efficient Electric City
Zero Waste
programs
US fleet efficiency stds Zero Waste / Circular Economy
Pavley Bill Getting Smart About Water
California Building Code Municipal Operations
Existing PA measures Utility of the Future
Bike/Ped Master Plan Culture, Behavior, Innovation
Zero Waste to 92% diversion Climate Adaptation
Palo Alto Reach Code Regeneration & Natural
Environment
Some EcoPasses/GoPasses Financing, Funding, Investment
CPAU efficiency programs
Etc.
This reflects Palo Alto’s longstanding commitment and initiatives already underway to drive
deep carbon reductions ahead of the state or those being pursued by most other cities. Even
though many of these Palo Alto measures are both aggressive and innovative, for the purpose
of this report we categorize them as “business as usual”—since these staff efforts are already
approved, planned or underway—provided Council maintains support for existing programs
and approves these programs when they come before them.
The additional GHG reduction between those already “in-the-pipeline” reductions and the 80%
reduction target for 2030 is about 224,600 MT CO2e[3], and is proposed by the S/CAP as Palo
Alto’s target “GHG reduction budget.” The Draft S/CAP projects that 117,900 MT CO2e, or more
than half of the needed additional reductions, can come from mobility related measures,
97,200 MT CO2e, or just under half from efficiency and fuel switching measures (largely in
buildings), and 9,500 MT CO2e, or 4% from continuation and extension of Palo Alto’s zero
waste initiatives. The Draft S/CAP also proposes other sustainability measure that don’t have
direct or easy to determine GHG impacts but that are important for other reasons, such as
water sustainability, health of the natural environment and community resilience.
S/CAP process
The S/CAP process investigated three scenarios (with different goals: 80x50, 80x30, 100x25) in
considerable detail. For each, we asked: "what combination of strategies and measures might
make it possible to meet that specific goal?" The list of potential measures is fairly clear, and
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summarized below. (The analysis is summarized in the S/CAP Appendices.) We then filtered for
technical feasibility; cost effectiveness (over time, since costs for many relevant technologies
has been dropping rapidly); mitigation cost (which may make some measures attractive even if
not strictly speaking cost effective, and worth exploring through alternative financing
strategies). We considered likely timing, and the entry points afforded by technology life cycles.
For existing buildings, we considered leverage points for change: pulling a permit, appliance
failure (actual or predicted), time of sale. We assume starting with voluntary programs (like
CPAU's Heat Pump Water Heater pilot), and potentially adding mandatory programs (such as
the proposed Energy Reach Code proposed by Development Services) as we understand better
what’s possible and what’s needed. And we applied informed and wherever possible
documented assumptions about costs, availability, rate of adoption, etc. (Where documented
data was not available—for example with new initiatives like Mobility as a Service—the
assumptions are intentionally conservative, and probably underestimate GHG reduction
potential.)
The S/CAP team benefited from expert opinion from Rocky Mountain Institute, as well as
experts from Stanford University, Goldman Sachs, Carbon Free Palo Alto, the Urban
Sustainability Directors Network, and other advisors. Community engagement included: a
design charrette (40 people), an ideas expo (80 people), two polling cycles (~500 people), a
community climate summit (300 people), several study sessions with Council, UAC and CAC,
regular meetings with staff through the Sustainability Board and several staff retreats, the
S/CAP Advisory Board (27 people), community meetings, newsletters (2500 people), social
media (600 people) and individual conversations. Staff will continue to seek community input
as the Draft S/CAP provides specific proposals and analysis for consideration by the City Council
and the community.
Based on these efforts—research, analysis and engagement—and strong recommendations to
present Council a single scenario rather than multiple scenarios, staff and consultants then
focused on the target goal presented here of 80% GHG reductions by 2030. Climate neutral by
2025 was considered too speculative by many, and the California goal of 80% GHG reductions
by 2030 was considered too conservative given Palo Alto’s platform of accomplishments to date
(though it would qualify Palo Alto to join the Climate Neutral Cities Alliance).
S/CAP measures
The Draft S/CAP’s main policy recommendations are summarized here, and presented with first
level implementation detail in the draft plan.
· Mobility:
o Make it more convenient not to drive by developing responsive, multimodal, service-
focused transportation services
o Shift subsidies from free parking to support non-SOV travel
o Support land use patterns that reduce both congestion and climate impacts.
o Support policy changes that promote EV charging infrastructure in public and private
development and that encourage EV use by residents and commuters
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· Efficiency & Electrification:
o Pursue large gains in energy, water and materials efficiency in buildings and operations,
o Pursue the adoption of an Energy Reach Code that drives energy efficiency through our
building codes.
o Emphasize integrative design and streamlined policy approaches
o Explore building stock upgrades toward Zero Net Energy or Net Positive through design,
efficiency, renewables and bundled services packages,
o Encourage all-electric new construction (if technically and legally feasible, cost-effective
and directed by City Council)
o Pursue policies that accelerate resource efficiency upgrades of existing building stock
(residential and commercial)
o Support a systematic shift from natural gas to all-electric systems[4]and/or renewable
natural gas (if technically and legally feasible, cost-effective and directed by
City Council)
· Sustainable Water Management:
o Develop an integrated, long-term strategy that mitigates any risks of long-term shift in
water supply
o Pursue policy changes that promote water efficiency in buildings and landscaping
o Balance water importation, rainwater harvesting, groundwater management, recycled
water use and onsite treatment options
· Municipal Operations:
o Embed sustainability in city procurement, operations and management
o Set targets and track performance metrics for City sustainability performance
o “Walk the talk” by ensuring the City goes first on any sustainability actions requested or
required of the community
o Include sustainability impacts in staff reports to Council, capital improvement project
proposals and management reports.
· Resilience, Adaptation and Sea Level Rise:
o Build resilience through risk mapping, mitigation, adaptation
o Where necessary as a secondary response, consider strategic retreats.[5]
· Regeneration and the Natural Environment / Ecosystem and Human Systems
Protection:
o Provide a healthy, resilient environment where all species can thrive and enjoy life.
· Utility of the Future:
o Adapt CPAU offerings and business model to potentially disruptive challenges facing the
utility industry, including distributed generation & storage, and “grid
defection”
o Explore micro-grids, nano-grids and other resilience strategies
· Community Behavior and Culture Change
o Challenge community to consider the impact on future generations of choices in lifestyle,
purchases and investment.
o Engage and support community through neighborhood initiatives, interactive tools, etc.
· Information systems:
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o Advance “smart city” platforms for transportation, utilities, buildings, operations, finance,
etc.
o Provide transparent reporting and open data to track performance, build knowledge and
fuel innovation
· Financing Strategies:
o Finance cost-effective initiatives through local and external investment and new
revenues, as well as general fund and enterprise fund expenditures, to the
extent permitted by existing legal and regulatory framework applicable to
the City.
The projected impacts of these measures are summarized in Figure 2.[6]
Figure 2
1990 2030
Percent
below the
1990 baseline
% of SCAP
reduction
budget
Baseline emissions 780,119
GHG reductions achieved through 2014 278,800 36%
State measures through 2030 80,800 7%
Existing & pending Palo Alto initiatives 48,500 8%
S/CAP Mobility - Expand non-auto options 34,000 4% 16%
S/CAP Mobility - Shift incentives 26,000 3% 11%
S/CAP Mobility - Balanced development 2,900 2% 1%
S/CAP Mobility - EV and ZE vehicles 55,000 6% 24%
S/CAP Energy Efficiency and electrification
in Buildings 97,200 15% 33%
S/CAP Solid Waste 9,500 1% 4%
Remaining emissions (2030) 155,000 19%
Palo Alto’s ability to enact these core moves throughout the community is embedded within a
regional, state and global context of regulatory and jurisdictional boundaries. In each of these
areas of activity, the City has available four zones of influence:
- City government has control over its own operations, including municipal buildings, fleet,
procurement and service delivery—for example, environmentally preferable
purchasing.
- It can establish policies, codes, mandates, regulations and standards that drive the GHG
emissions reductions of our residents and workforce—for example, our Building Code
requirements for new construction and major renovations.
- It can influence community and workforce behavior through education, outreach and
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voluntary programs—such as CPAU’s incentive programs and Transportation
Management Association (TMA) programs.
- And it can work with neighboring jurisdictions and regional authorities to develop
collaborative initiatives—such as regional transportation initiatives— and to influence
regional, state and national policy.
Goals and Assumptions
Key assumptions
The key assumptions underlying the projections for Mobility initiatives are shown in i the S/CAP
draft and associated appendices. Some are controversial, but will hopefully provoke a grounded
exploration of options and consequences. Many are ambitious, and will require rapid rates of
uptake of new technologies. For example, S/CAP projects that 90% of vehicles owned in Palo
Alto will be EVs by 2030. Is that possible? We don’t know, given that the State projects only
30%. More useful questions might be “What measures could we undertake to accelerate that
change, or to take advantage of potential market changes that move more quickly than
projected (as we have seen for years with PVs, EVs and other technologies)?” and “What
policies could we pursue that might eliminate barriers that would otherwise hinder the rapid
expansion and proliferation of Electric Vehicles in Palo Alto?”
The relative GHG reduction impacts (in metric Tons CO2e) and associated “mitigation costs” (in
$/mT) are shown in Figure 3. (The measures further to the right indicate greater impact; the
measures higher on the chart indicate more favorable economics.)
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Figure 3
The nature of goals, certainty & "failure"
The SCAP goals are ambitious, as called for by the Paris COP21 climate agreement. They also
may be uniquely achievable by Palo Alto, because of the city’s significant head start, its carbon
neutral electricity platform and its control of Palo Alto Utilities. They are in any event not
certain to be successfully accomplished, since they depend on many variables, both within our
control—such as the desirability of CPAU services and incentives and the effectiveness of City
programs—and many factors outside our control—such as the pace of price performance
improvement of electric vehicles and the effectiveness of State programs.
Despite that uncertainty, stretch goals drive innovation and progress better than safe ones.
Setting a big goal and perhaps not fully reaching will likely get us farther than setting a safe goal
and reaching it, especially in a time of rapid change. Our key question should not be “Are we
confident we can achieve it?” No one knows if ambitious climate goals are achievable, based on
today’s know how and experience; Johanna Partin, Director of the Carbon Neutral Cities
Alliance, observes that "most of the CNCA cities…have a pretty good sense of how they're going
to get to somewhere between 25-70% of their target by 2020/25/30, but no one yet knows
exactly how they're going to get to 100% of their goal.” We only know that we must do our best
to find ways to achieve them.
Better questions might be: Is the goal worthy? Is the strategic direction right? Are the first steps
right? Then let's get going, evaluate progress regularly, and revise the S/CAP as needed every
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five years; let’s support proposed goals with bottom up analyses, assessing, iteratively, "what
combination of measures might make it possible to meet that specific goal?" As General (and
later, President) Dwight D. Eisenhower observed, “Plans are useless. Planning is essential;”
planning is an ongoing, iterative, adaptive process.
Staff therefore recommends that Council consider this S/CAP as a long range plan that sets a
strategic framework for achieving its sustainability goals and that provides the basis for more
specific action plans. As most other Climate Action Plans recognize, achieving these goals may
depend on technology innovations that have not yet come online; also, it may become
necessary to modify plans, specific actions or even goals as circumstances change over time.
The City can commit to 2030 GHG reduction targets, and recognize that there will be multiple
ways to achieve that goal; flexibility in implementation will be necessary to allow the City to
evolve its strategies to achieve the most effective path to the desired result.
How to proceed
Many of the measures in the queue as well as those proposed in the S/CAP and ensuing five-
year plan will require further refinement and collaboration with staff of multiple City
departments. Although city staff is committed to the goal of reducing greenhouse gas
emissions, there are many ways to both interpret and prioritize efforts to achieve the goal.
Staff is committed to carefully assessing and prioritizing the actions and alternatives proposed,
and recognizes that some priorities will need to change in order to achieve these goals. But
without policy direction from the Council at the present juncture, it will be difficult for staff to
determine the appropriate pace and prioritization to pursue. For this reason staff is asking for
Council input on the 80 by 2030 goal and the strategic direction suggested here. Staff would be
happy to provide more, specific information as desired, and to provide periodical updates to
Council.
Note that the ongoing Comprehensive Plan Update is dealing with some of the same issues as
the S/CAP. Discussion about how much alignment between the two plans is desirable, and what
form that should take, are important questions for the Council to help answer. Council’s
direction and community input on the Draft S/CAP will support this process and ultimately lead
to both (a) a Comprehensive Plan that sets broad community goals and policies on a wide range
of subjects, supported by specific implementation programs; and (b) an S/CAP that establishes
climate goals and strategies, and that addresses and supports Comprehensive Plan polices with
specific implementation strategies.
Palo Alto’s Sustainability and Climate Action Plan will need to be a living, learning document,
providing what Good to Great author Jim Collins dubbed BHAGs—big, hairy, audacious goals—
coupled with sensible starting points and sound initial steps.
We face great uncertainty—the pace of climate change, State and Federal policy response and
technology, and public behavior change. Moving powerfully in uncertain times requires:
§ Strong directional goals
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§ Clear principles & criteria
§ Flexible platforms
§ Rapid, agile prototyping
§ Timely, transparent performance tracking
§ Willingness to pivot as we learn
Recommendation
Staff recommends that the City Council discuss the attached Draft Sustainability/Climate Action
Plan (S/CAP) and provide direction to Staff regarding plan goals, guiding principles and decision
criteria, implementation programs, and next steps.
Resource Impact
Climate plan updates are significant undertakings for any jurisdiction. Implementation of the
S/CAP will require staff resources, including potential allocation of new staff resources, and
investment of public funds in both development of implementations plans and actual
implementation of specific measures. Developing the S/CAP has required significant
commitment of the CSO and ongoing time commitments by other staff from multiple
departments, as well as the DNV consultants. Staff requirements for specific initiatives will be
identified as part of work plan development, in response to initiatives approved by Council.
According to S/CAP modeling estimates, City financial investment (subject to applicable legal
constraints) could be significant.
Policy Implications
The Sustainability and Climate Action Plan will set forth proposed City policies and actions with
regard to the topics addressed, and a framework for future discussions regarding these topics.
The S/CAP Plan addresses many issues that are also addressed by the Comprehensive Plan.
While staff has attempted to coordinate the two work streams as much as possible, there are
inevitable differences, given the nature of each initiative, which will need to be reconciled as
the planning processes advance in 2016.
The Comprehensive Plan is an update of Palo Alto’s 1998 Comprehensive Plan, and has been
underway since 2008; it will build on the existing plan, and incorporate goals, policies, and
programs addressing climate change and climate adaption for the first time. The EIR for the
Comp Plan Update will take a conservative look at potential GHG emissions through the year
2030.
While the S/CAP effort identifies the City’s 2007 Climate Action Plan as its genesis, it is largely a
de novo undertaking, which commenced in 2014 to present possible strategies for making Palo
Alto more sustainable through 2030 and beyond. As is typical for such planning efforts, near
term actions can be specific and quantifiable, while longer term actions are necessarily more
aspirational and general, focusing on externally driven goals and attempting to determine
whether and how best to meet them.
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These two different processes will converge on some matters, and not others; however staff
recognizes that the two plans must ultimately not work at cross purposes and work together as
much as possible to express the community’s vision for the future, and establish specific
policies and strategies to guide future investments and decisions. Staff has not attempted to
resolve all these differences at the staff level, since many of them are a matter of political and
policy judgment, not professional judgment, and thus within the purview of Council and
community, not staff.
Environmental Review
Adoption of a Climate Plan will require review pursuant to the California Environmental Quality
Act (CEQA). While sustainability measures have been included in the Draft EIR that is being
developed for the Comprehensive Plan Update, the final S/CAP may include additional
strategies that have not been analyzed by the Draft EIR. Thus the final S/CAP will have to be
reviewed to determine the appropriate level of CEQA review required.
Timeline
Review and approve S/CAP goals and framework Q2/16
Review and approve 3-5 year Mobility implementation plan Q2-4/16
Review approve other 3-5 year implementation plans Q3/16
Adopt S/CAP Q4/16
Attachments:
SCAP draft
SCAP Appendices
Earth Day Report
[1] Additional background and detail in Jan 25, 2016 Staff Report 6566, which is condensed but
not repeated here.
[2] Note that in all these scenarios, reductions are partially driven by factors outside our
control, including Federal and state policy, legal and regulatory constraints, cost-effectiveness
of measures and technology, the pace of technology innovation, and behavioral changes by our
population. In this way, the S/CAP may be similar to California Air Resources Board’s (CARB’s)
update to the State’s scoping plan, which suggests that near-term actions and targets need to
be specific, quantifiable, and within an agency’s control, while longer term actions and targets
may require changes in technology and/or actions by others, and could be less precise. It
should be noted, however, that the Draft S/CAP in some cases builds on the assumptions in the
State’s Scoping Plan, suggesting – for example – that the City seek to achieve a level of Electrical
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Vehicle (EV) ownership (for residents and commuters) three times what the CARB is targeting
state-wide for 2030.
[3] MT CO2e = metric tons of CO2 equivalent
[4] See analysis of electrification strategies, Staff Report 5971, August 2015
[5] These will be detailed in Sea Level Rise study session with Council in May.
[6] Note that all GHG emissions and reductions discussed in the S/CAP are estimates, based on
best available data and assumptions. Some numbers (such as electricity, natural gas and water
consumption) are based on direct measurement. Other numbers (such as landfill emissions and
transportation related emissions) are derived from best available models, and are not precise
measures. Staff is assuming an overall precision of +/- 10-20% on these estimates.
Attachments:
ATTACHMENT A: S/CAP Draft (PDF)
ATTACHMENT B: S/CAP Draft Appendices (PDF)
ATTACHMENT C: Earth Day Report 2016 (PDF)
City of Palo Alto: Sustainability and Climate Action Plan 2016 April 18, 2016 Page 1 of 63
Draft – April 2016
City of Palo Alto: Sustainability and Climate Action Plan 2016 April 18, 2016 Page 2 of 63
FORWARD ...................................................................................................................................................................... 4
INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................................................. 5
ROADMAP TO A CARBON NEUTRAL CITY ..................................................................................................................... 6
Palo Alto’s Greenhouse Gas Baseline and Trends ..................................................................................................... 6
A Roadmap for “80 x 30” ........................................................................................................................................... 9
Guiding Principles .................................................................................................................................................... 17
RETHINKING MOBILITY ................................................................................................................................................ 19
Goal: Expand non‐auto mobility options ................................................................................................................ 19
Goal: Create the right incentives for mobility ......................................................................................................... 23
Goal: Seek balanced development .......................................................................................................................... 24
Strategy: Increase zero‐impact, mixed‐use housing (T‐LU‐1) ...................................................................................... 26
Goal: Reduce the carbon intensity of vehicular travel ............................................................................................ 26
BUILDING AN EFFICIENT ELECTRIC CITY ....................................................................................................................... 29
Goal: Efficiency and electrification .......................................................................................................................... 30
Goal: Reduce natural gas usage in existing businesses ........................................................................................... 31
Goal: Reduce natural gas usage in existing homes ................................................................................................. 33
Goal: Reduce natural gas in new buildings ............................................................................................................. 34
Goal: Reduce the carbon intensity of natural gas ................................................................................................... 35
ZERO WASTE AND THE CIRCULAR ECONOMY ............................................................................................................. 36
Goal: Achieve 95% landfill diversion by 2030, and ultimately zero waste .............................................................. 36
GETTING SMART ABOUT WATER ................................................................................................................................. 39
Goal: Reduce consumption of potable water ......................................................................................................... 39
Goal: Supplement existing water supplies .............................................................................................................. 40
MUNICIPAL OPERATIONS – LEADING THE WAY .......................................................................................................... 42
Goal: Efficient City Buildings ................................................................................................................................... 42
Goal: Efficient City Fleet .......................................................................................................................................... 43
Goal: Procurement—“Default to Green” ................................................................................................................ 43
Goal: Embed Sustainability in Management Systems and Processes ..................................................................... 43
PALO ALTO’S UTILITY OF THE FUTURE ......................................................................................................................... 45
Goal: Implement innovative efficiency strategies ................................................................................................... 45
Goal: Advance smart grid strategies ....................................................................................................................... 46
Goal: Evaluate and adapt the CPAU business model .............................................................................................. 46
Goal: Continue to advance carbon neutrality ......................................................................................................... 47
COMMUNITY BEHAVIOR, CULTURE & INNOVATION ................................................................................................... 48
Goal: Provide a platform for community change in culture, behavior and innovation .......................................... 48
CLIMATE ADAPTATION: PREPARING FOR CHANGE ..................................................................................................... 50
Guiding Principles for Sea Level Rise Response ...................................................................................................... 53
City of Palo Alto: Sustainability and Climate Action Plan 2016 April 18, 2016 Page 3 of 63
Goal: Protect, Adapt, Retreat .................................................................................................................................. 54
REGENERATION AND THE NATURAL ENVIRONMENT .................................................................................................. 56
Goal: Renew, restoration and enhance resilience of our natural environment ..................................................... 56
FINANCING, FUNDING AND INVESTMENTS ................................................................................................................. 58
Financing these pathways ....................................................................................................................................... 58
Capital formation .................................................................................................................................................... 58
Goal: Utilize diverse financial pathways to drive S/CAP implementation ............................................................... 59
IMPLEMENTATION: TURNING VISION INTO ACTION ................................................................................................... 60
Monitoring and Tracking Progress .......................................................................................................................... 60
CONCLUSION ............................................................................................................................................................... 62
GLOSSARY .................................................................................................................................................................... 63
City of Palo Alto: Sustainability and Climate Action Plan 2016 April 18, 2016 Page 4 of 63
FORWARD
We live in a time of challenge and change. The California economy, powered by the innovation engine of Silicon
Valley, anchored in Palo Alto, has transformed the world. Companies like Google, Twitter, and Facebook have
transformed the way we live and work. And now the world threatens to transform California. The drought—or, as
some suggest, the “multi‐decadal mega‐drought”1—challenges not just our lawns, agriculture and hydroelectric
power supplies, but the premise on which California civilization was built. Climate chaos may not devastate us the
way that it threatens to devastate coastal regions from Bangladesh to south Florida, but heat, flooding and super
storms will take their toll, and will take hundreds of billions of dollars to adapt to.
And yet… this cloud presents a silver lining. Perhaps a golden one. For in the challenge of responding to climate
change, we find ourselves facing what Pogo called insurmountable opportunities, what those wild eyed radicals at
Goldman Sachs see as the massive economic opportunity of a new energy economy–once again anchored here.
We are called upon to lead. Many would say the United States has lagged in response to climate challenge,
compared to Europe, or China, though President Obama recent Executive Orders on emissions, energy has called
the federal government to the challenge. Many would say that California has led in response to climate challenge–
from revolutionizing utility regulation in the 1970s to driving the market for clean energy to our world‐leading
climate goals–now ratcheted up again by Governor Brown's recent Executive Orders on emissions, energy and
water. Many would say that Palo Alto has been a leader in this process, with our early climate action plan, our
carbon neutral electricity, and our actions to support green buildings and electric vehicles. Well, it's time for us to
lead again, with a new sustainability and climate action plan that sets a new bar for leadership, that builds quality‐
of‐life, prosperity and resilience for this community, and that sets an example once again for other communities to
emulate.
We must understand and prepare for the risks ahead: climate change, with hotter and drier weather, combined
with sea level rise and flooding; disruptions in resource flows and human migrations; the rise and collapse of
companies and even industries; and the challenge of reinventing a way of life that was based on conditions that we
may never see again.
This plan identifies a pathway to reduce our emissions 80% by 2030. Governor Brown has proposed 40% emissions
reductions for California 2030. Palo Alto is already at 36%. But achieving that next 40% will not be easy, since it will
require transforming transportation and dramatically reducing the climate impact of our use of natural gas for
heating our buildings and water.
Because we can do this. Here.
1 http://www.climatecentral.org/news/is‐the‐wests‐dry‐spell‐really‐a‐megadrought‐16824
City of Palo Alto: Sustainability and Climate Action Plan 2016 April 18, 2016 Page 5 of 63
INTRODUCTION
As the heart of the region that drives the eighth largest economy in the world, what is created in Palo Alto has
influence far beyond its borders. Palo Alto has made impressive—and in some cases remarkable—progress toward
reducing its carbon impacts, greenhouse gas emissions, and resource consumption since establishing its first
Climate Protection Plan in 2007.
While cities around the world ratchet up their own sustainability initiatives, Palo Alto will need to act boldly in
order to maintain its legendary leadership position—and to ensure the wellbeing of this community in the face of
the challenges ahead.
In the nine years since Palo Alto created one of the first climate protection plans in United States, the world has
gotten hotter, the west has gotten dryer, and more cities have stepped into the ranks of climate leadership.
Palo Alto is poised to take the next step in climate and sustainability leadership. The Sustainability and Climate
Action Plan (S/CAP) is Palo Alto’s ambitious plan to create a prosperous, resilient city for all residents. To support
Palo Alto’s leadership position on climate protection, the S/CAP provides a roadmap for how the City will continue
its environmental stewardship, and exceed state requirements for GHG emission reductions.
The S/CAP is intended as a strategic plan that sets direction and overall goals, suggests initial priority actions and
proposes high‐level implementation pathways to achieve them.
The S/CAP presents a scenario, not a prediction. It presents a clear direction—move rapidly toward deep de‐
carbonization through a suggested portfolio of measures that show net positive financial benefit, and an estimate
of the upfront investment required to generate those benefits. The specific measures, rates of adoption and
impacts presented here are best estimates based on currently available information in a rapidly changing
technology landscape; In order to be agile, adaptive and effective in the face of these changes, Palo Alto will
update the S/CAP every five years, and develop more granular five‐year work plans and short‐term programs,
rather than attempt to build a detailed 14‐year work plan.
The time to act is now. In this new climate action plan, we identify a roadmap to move from carbon neutral
electricity to a carbon neutral utility—and ultimately towards a carbon neutral city.
City of Palo Alto: Sustainability and Climate Action Plan 2016 April 18, 2016 Page 6 of 63
ROADMAP TO
A CARBON NEUTRAL CITY
Palo Alto’s Greenhouse Gas Baseline and Trends
By 2015, Palo Alto had already reduced GHG emissions an estimated 36% since 19902—a remarkable achievement
in 24 years, with most of it accomplished in the ten years since 2005—largely as a result of the leadership of Palo
Alto Utilities and the City Council’s 2013 commitment to carbon neutral electricity. Palo Alto’s largest remaining
sources of greenhouse gas emissions are road transportation (approximately 65%) followed by natural gas use
(approximately 26%). Figure 2 illustrates this trend, and Figure 3 provides another view of the relative size of Palo
Alto’s emissions sources in 2015.
The estimated 36% GHG reductions to date were achieved through building efficiency measures and introduction
of carbon neutral electricity (as well as societal trends such as more efficient appliances, not shown explicitly here).
Over the next 15 years, a variety of external trends (designated in this Plan as “business as usual 1” or BAU1),
including Federal and state policy (such as building efficiency and vehicle efficiency standards) and demographic
changes, are expected to reduce Palo Alto emissions to an estimated 45% below 1990 emissions by 20303—in line
with the State of California’s interim 2030 reduction target of 40%. Initiatives that the City has already approved
or set in motion (such as existing CPAU efficiency incentive programs, Palo Alto’s existing Green Building Ordinance
and Reach Code, and the Bicycle and Pedestrian Plan), will bring emissions down to an estimated 52% of 1990
levels—provided Council maintains support for existing programs and approves these programs when they come
before them. This reflects Palo Alto’s longstanding commitment and initiatives already underway to drive deep
carbon reductions ahead of the state or those being pursued by most other cities. Even though these Palo Alto
plans are both aggressive and innovative, for the purpose of this report we categorize them as “business as usual
“—since these efforts are already in the queue.
The additional GHG reduction between those already “in‐the‐pipeline” reductions and the 80% reduction target
for 2030 is about 224,600 MT CO2e4, and is proposed by the S/CAP as Palo Alto’s target “GHG reduction budget.”
The Draft S/CAP projects that 117,900 MT CO2e, or more than half of the needed additional reductions, can come
from mobility related measures, 97,200 MT CO2e, or just under half from efficiency and fuel switching measures
(largely in buildings), and 9,500 MT CO2e, or 4% from continuation and extension of Palo Alto’s zero waste
initiatives. The Draft S/CAP also proposes other sustainability measure that don’t have direct or easy to determine
GHG impacts but that are important for other reasons, such as water sustainability, health of the natural
environment and community resilience.
2 Palo Alto emissions in the 1990 baseline year are estimated at 780,119 MTCO2e, a restatement of prior estimates
based on revised analyses using updated emissions models. Most emissions noted in this report as called
“estimates,” since only utility consumption (electricity, natural gas and water) are measured. Transportation
emissions are modeled every few years; solid waste related emissions are calculated using established EPA
protocols. Solid waste related emissions were not included in the CompPlan DEIR.
3 Based on the “business as usual” analysis conducted for the CompPlan DEIR.
4 MT CO2e = metric tons of CO2 equivalent
City of Palo Alto: Sustainability and Climate Action Plan 2016 April 18, 2016 Page 7 of 63
Figure 1. Palo Alto Community‐wide GHG Emissions (MT CO2e)
Figure 2. Palo Alto 2015 Community‐wide GHG Emissions Sectors
A detailed emissions analysis can be found in Appendix X.
‐
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1990 2005 2012 2013 2014 2015
Landfilling Recyclable Material
Lifecycle Emissions From Annual
Waste to Landfill
Wastewater Process Emissions
Landfill Fugivitive Emissions
Natural Gas Leakage
Electricity
Natural Gas
Road Travel
65%
Natural Gas
27%
Natural Gas
Leakage
1%
Landfill Fugivitive
Emissions
2%
Wastewater
Process Emissions
1%
Lifecycle Emissions
From Annual
Waste to Landfill
1%
Landfilling
Recyclable
Material
3%
City of Palo Alto: Sustainability and Climate Action Plan 2016 April 18, 2016 Page 8 of 63
Figure 3. Overview of Palo Alto GHG Reduction Target relative to Business‐as‐Usual (MT CO2e)
City of Palo Alto: Sustainability and Climate Action Plan 2016 April 18, 2016 Page 9 of 63
A Roadmap for “80 x 30”?
Palo Alto has substantially exceeded the 20% reduction goals set by Council in 2007 Climate Protection Plan, and is
positioned to establish new goals for Palo Alto to continue its global leadership, commit to a low‐ or zero‐carbon
future, and create a roadmap to that future.
This plan focuses on pathways to a low‐carbon future, and initiatives addressing water, green infrastructure,
adaptation and regeneration as part of a holistic framework for sustainability. Specifically, it explores a
possible pathway for reducing Palo Alto’s GHG emissions by 2030 from the current level of 36% below 1990
levels to 80% below 1990 levels by 2030 (“80x30”), 20 years ahead of the State of California 80x50 target. This
represents a GHG reduction “budget” of 260,000 tons (as shown in Figure 5 and detailed below), and will be
possible only if Palo Alto continues its longstanding commitment to sustainability and if a number of
assumptions that are outside the City’s control come to fruition.
Figure 4: 80x30 GHG Reduction Budget (MT CO2e)
Reducing greenhouse gas emissions in order to avoid potentially catastrophic climate change is a key driver
for the S/CAP, but it is not the only indicator for sustainability. Therefore, the S/CAP is organized around ten
overarching levers for sustainability, including some without direct quantifiable impacts on greenhouse gas
emissions, but which are central to a holistic approach for sustainability in Palo Alto that protects and
enhances our natural resources for generations to come. These are summarized in Figure 5, below, and
described in more detail in the sections that follow.
Key Levers for Sustainability and Climate Action
S/CAP’s main recommendation measures are summarized here, and presented with first level implementation
detail in the draft plan.
Mobility:
o Make it more convenient not to drive by developing responsive, multimodal, service‐focused
transportation services
o Shift subsidies from free parking to support non‐SOV travel
153,400
97,200
117,900
48,500
80,800
272,800
780,119
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
1990 2030
Baseline emissions
GHG reductions achieved
through 2014
BAU1 ‐ State measures
through 2030
BAU2 ‐ Existing Palo Alto
initiatives
S/CAP measures (Mobility)
S/CAP measures (Energy in
Buildings)
S/CAP measures (Waste)
Remaining emissions
City of Palo Alto: Sustainability and Climate Action Plan 2016 April 18, 2016 Page 10 of 63
o Shift land use patterns reduce both congestion and climate impacts.
o Support policy changes that promote EV charging infrastructure in public and private
development and that encourage EV use by residents and commuters
Efficiency & Electrification:
o Pursue large gains in energy, water and materials efficiency in buildings and operations,
o Pursue the adoption of an Energy Reach Code that drives energy efficiency through our building
codes.
o Emphasize integrative design and streamlined policy approaches
o Explore building stock upgrades to Zero Net Energy or Net Positive through design, efficiency,
renewables and bundled services packages,
o Encourage all‐electric new construction (if technically and legally feasible, cost effective and
directed by City Council)
o Rapidly upgrade the resource efficiency of existing building stock (residential and commercial)
o Support a systematic shift from natural gas to all‐electric systems5 and/or renewable natural
gas (if technically and legally feasible, cost‐effective and directed by City Council)
Sustainable Water Management:
o Develop an integrated, long‐term strategy that mitigates risks of long‐term shift in water supply
o Pursue policy changes that promote water efficiency in buildings and landscaping
o Balance water importation, rainwater harvesting, groundwater management, recycled water use
and onsite treatment options
Resilience, Adaptation and Sea Level Rise:
o Build resilience through risk mapping, mitigation, adaptation
o Where necessary as a secondary response, consider strategic retreats.
Municipal Operations:
o Embed sustainability in city procurement, operations and management
o Set targets and track performance metrics for City sustainability performance
o “Walk the talk” by ensuring the City goes first on any sustainability actions requested or required
of the community
o Include sustainability impacts in staff reports, capital improvement project proposals and
management reports.
Regeneration and the Natural Environment / Ecosystem and Human Systems Protection:
o Provide a healthy, resilient environment where all species can thrive and enjoy life.
Utility of the Future:
o Adapt CPAU offerings and business model to potentially disruptive challenges facing the utility
industry, including distributed generation & storage, and “grid defection”
o Explore micro‐grids, nano‐grids and other resilience strategies
Community Behavior and Culture Change
o Challenge community to consider the impact on future generations of choices in lifestyle,
purchases and investment.
o Engage and support community through neighborhood initiatives, interactive tools, etc.
Information systems:
o Advance “smart city” platforms for transportation, utilities, buildings, operations, finance, etc.
o Provide transparent reporting and open data to track performance, build knowledge and fuel
innovation
Financing Strategies:
o Finance cost‐effective initiative through multi‐channel, non‐general fund, local and external
investment in support of these goals, to the extent permitted by existing legal and regulatory
framework applicable to the City.
5 See analysis of electrification strategies, Staff Report 5971, August 2015
City of Palo Alto: Sustainability and Climate Action Plan 2016 April 18, 2016 Page 11 of 63
These measures will require strategies that address three domains of action (shown in Figure 5), all of which
are critical to realizing the sustainability vision:
institutions that form the structure of policies and programs,
behavioral change to modify mindsets and personal actions, and
financial considerations that drive markets.
Figure 5. S/CAP Three Domains of Action
A few core moves
Palo Alto’s sustainability strategies ultimately rely on a few “core moves” for reducing impact on the environment
and GHG emissions, and doing so in ways that improve the quality of life of our community:
Reducing resource use, for example through energy efficiency measures;
Shifting resource use impacts, for example by electrification;
Transforming systems, for example by outcompeting single occupancy driving with mobility services.
REDUCE SHIFT TRANSFORM
Energy efficiency
Water conservation
Walking/biking instead of
driving
Zero waste
Convert to electric vehicles
Electrify water and space
heating
Greywater or rainwater
instead of potable water
Mobility as a Service
instead of individual car
ownership
Transit‐oriented
development
Utility of the Future
City of Palo Alto: Sustainability and Climate Action Plan 2016 April 18, 2016 Page 12 of 63
Zones of Control and Influence
Palo Alto’s ability to enact these core moves throughout the community is embedded within a regional, state and
global context of regulatory and jurisdictional boundaries. Figure 6 illustrates Palo Alto’s levels of control and
influence.
City government has control over its own operations, including municipal buildings, fleet, procurement
and service delivery—for example, environmentally preferable purchasing.
It can establish policies, codes, mandates, regulations and standards that drive the GHG emissions
reductions of our residents and workforce—for example, our PV readiness requirements for new
construction and major renovations.
It can influence community behavior through education, outreach and voluntary programs—such as
CPAU’s incentive programs.
And it can work with neighboring jurisdictions and regional authorities to develop collaborative
initiatives—such as regional transportation initiatives— and to influence regional, state and national
policy.
Figure 6. Palo Alto Jurisdictional Influence and Control
City of Palo Alto: Sustainability and Climate Action Plan 2016 April 18, 2016 Page 13 of 63
Levers, Goals, Strategies and Actions
Figure 7 presents the key components of Palo Alto’s path to further GHG reductions:
The primary levers with which we can shift emission trends
The goals we will establish to activate those levers
The strategies and actions by which we will achieve those goals
Figure 8 summarizes the emissions reduction potential of the proposed strategies, and the key players responsible
for implementation, and Figure 9 shows this summary by goal. For several strategies, Palo Alto will need to work
with regional and state entities to advocate for policies and programs to support Palo Alto efforts and initiatives.
The levers, goals, strategies and actions are based on Palo Alto’s baseline emissions sources, existing and planned
initiatives and a literature review of best practices for city climate action planning for effective new GHG reduction
opportunities. (Note: Not all the strategies and actions in this Plan are summarized here, since some don’t have
direct GHG reduction impacts, or those impacts are impossible to estimate at this time.)
Figure 7. Overview of 3 Key Levers, Goals and Strategies for GHG Reductions
City of Palo Alto: Sustainability and Climate Action Plan 2016 April 18, 2016 Page 14 of 63
Figure 8. S/CAP Strategies to Achieve 80 x 30 Goal
Levers Goals Strategy Jurisdiction
PA = Palo Alto
R = Regional
S = State
GHG Avoided
in 2030
(MT CO2e)
Percent of
Total S/CAP
Emissions
Reductions
Percent of
Reductions
from 1990
Baseline
Re
t
h
i
n
k
i
n
g
Mo
b
i
l
i
t
y
Expand non‐
auto mobility
options
T‐FAC‐1. Expand bicycle
infrastructure PA
8,400 4% 1%
T‐FAC‐2. Expand transit
options PA, R
19,200 9% 2%
T‐FAC‐3. Grow ridesharing
services and mobility apps PA
6,400 3% 1%
Create right
financial
incentives
T‐INC‐1. Provide universal
transit passes PA
7,600 3% 1%
T‐INC‐2. Implement parking
pricing and feebates PA
18,400 8% 2%
Adapt land
use patterns
T‐LU‐1. Increase zero‐impact,
mixed use housing PA
2,900 1% 2%
Reduce
carbon
intensity of
vehicles
T‐EV‐1. Electrify Palo Alto‐
based vehicles PA
25,200 11% 3%
T‐EV‐2. Electrify inbound
vehicles PA, R
29,800 13% 3%
El
e
c
t
r
i
f
y
i
n
g
ou
r
Ci
t
y
Reduce use
in existing
businesses
NG‐COMM‐1. Electrify water
heating in businesses PA, S
21,200 9% 5%
NG‐COMM‐2. Electrify space
heating in businesses PA, S
15,900 7% 3%
NG‐COOK‐1. Electrify
commercial cooking PA, S
11,300 5% 2%
Reduce use
in existing
homes
NG‐RES‐1. Electrify
residential water heating PA, S
13,600 6% 2%
NG‐RES‐2. Electrify
residential space heating PA, S
23,300 10% 3%
Reduce use
in new
buildings
NG‐GAS‐1. Encourage all‐
electric new buildings PA, S
11,900 5% 2%
Ze
r
o
Wa
s
t
e
Enhance
programs
and
infrastructur
e
SW‐1. Achieve zero waste
PA
9,500
4% 1%
TOTAL 224,600 100% 33%
City of Palo Alto: Sustainability and Climate Action Plan 2016 April 18, 2016 Page 15 of 63
Figure 9. Summary of S/CAP Emissions Reductions by Goal
Key assumptions
The key assumptions underlying the projections for the impacts of these initiatives are shown in Table XX. Some
are controversial, but will hopefully provoke a grounded exploration of options and consequences.6 Many are
ambitious, and will require rapid rates of uptake of new technologies. For example, S/CAP projects that 90% of
vehicles owned in Palo Alto will be EVs by 2030. Is that possible? We don’t know, given that the State projects only
30%. More useful questions might be “What measures could we undertake to accelerate that change, or to take
advantage of potential market changes that move more quickly than projected (as we have seen for years with PVs,
EVs and other technologies)?” and “What policies could we pursue that might eliminate barriers that would
otherwise hinder the rapid expansion and proliferation of Electric Vehicles in Palo Alto?”
The relative GHG reduction impacts (in metric Tons CO2e) and associated “mitigation costs” (in $/mT) are shown in
Figure 1. (The measures further to the right indicate greater impact; the measures higher on the chart indicate
more favorable economics.)
6 Note that in all these scenarios, reductions are partially driven by factors outside our control, including Federal
and state policy, legal and regulatory constraints, cost‐effectiveness of measures and technology, the pace of
technology innovation, and behavioral changes by our population. In this way, the S/CAP may be similar to
California Air Resources Board’s (CARB’s) update to the State’s scoping plan, which suggests that near‐term actions
and targets need to be specific, quantifiable, and within an agency’s control, while longer term actions and targets may
require changes in technology and/or actions by others, and could be less precise. It should be noted, however, that
the Draft S/CAP in some cases builds on the assumptions in the State’s Scoping Plan, suggesting – for example –
that the City seek to achieve a level of Electrical Vehicle (EV) ownership (for residents and commuters) three times
what the CARB is targeting state‐wide for 2030.
Expand non‐auto
mobility options
15%
Create right
financial incentives
for non‐auto
12%
Adapt land use
patterns
1%
Reduce carbon
intensity of
vehicles
25%
Reduce use in
existing homes
16%
Reduce use in
existing businesses
22%
Reduce use in new
buildings
5%
Zero waste
4%
City of Palo Alto: Sustainability and Climate Action Plan 2016 April 18, 2016 Page 16 of 63
Figure 10. Prioritizing Actions by GHG Impact & Mitigation Cost
The Power of “Unreasonable” Goals
The SCAP goals are ambitious, as called for by the Paris climate agreement. They also may be uniquely achievable
by Palo Alto, because of the city’s significant head start, its carbon neutral electricity platform and its control of
Palo Alto Utilities. They are in any event not certain to be successfully accomplished, since they depend on many
variables, both within our control—such as the desirability of CPAU services and incentives and the effectiveness of
City programs—and many factors outside our control—such as the pace of price/performance improvement of
electric vehicles and the effectiveness of State climate programs.
Despite that uncertainty, stretch goals drive innovation better than safe ones. Setting a big goal and perhaps not
fully reaching will likely get us farther than setting a safe goal and reaching it, especially in a time of rapid change.
Our key question should not be “Are we confident we can achieve it?” No one knows if ambitious climate goals are
achievable, based on today’s knowhow and experience; Johanna Partin, Director of the Carbon Neutral Cities
Alliance, observes that "most of the CNCA cities…have a pretty good sense of how they're going to get to
somewhere between 25‐70% of their target by 2020/25/30, but no one yet knows exactly how they're going to get
to 100% of their goal.” We only know that we must do our best to find ways to achieve them.
Better questions might be: Is the goal worthy? Is the strategic direction right? Are the first steps right? If so, then
let's get going, and re‐evaluate goals and progress in five years; let’s support proposed goals with bottom up
analyses, assessing "what combination of measures might make it possible to meet that specific goal?" As General
(and later, President) Dwight D. Eisenhower observed, “Plans are useless. Planning is essential.”
($700)
($600)
($500)
($400)
($300)
($200)
($100)
$0
$100
$200
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000
Ma
r
g
i
n
a
l
Ab
a
t
e
m
e
n
t
Co
s
t
($
/
M
T
CO
2
e
)
Emissions Avoided in 2030 (MT CO2e)Expand bicycle infrastructure
Expand transit options
Grow ridesharing services and
mobility apps
Provide universal transit passes
Implement parking pricing
Electrify Palo Alto‐based
vehicles
Electrify inbound vehicles
Electrify water heating in
businesses
Electrify space heating in
businesses
Electrify commercial cooking
Electrify residential water
heating
Electrify residential space
heating
Encourage all‐electric new
buildings
City of Palo Alto: Sustainability and Climate Action Plan 2016 April 18, 2016 Page 17 of 63
Guiding Principles
The Vision Statement for the 1998 Comprehensive Plan Governance Element declares that:
“Palo Alto will maintain a positive civic image and be a leader in the regional, state, and national policy
discussions affecting the community. The City will work with neighboring communities to address
common concerns and pursue common interests. The public will be actively and effectively involved in
City affairs, both at the Citywide and neighborhood levels.”7
S/CAP builds on that vision with these guiding principles as a basis for effective and sustainable decision‐making:
Consider “sustainability” in its broadest dimensions, including quality of life, the natural environment and
resilience, not just climate change and greenhouse gas emissions reductions.
Address the sustainability issues most important to the community and select most cost‐effective
programs and policies—recognizing that this will entail moral and political, as well as economic, decision
factors.
Seek to improve quality of life as well as environmental quality, economic health and social equity.
Foster a prosperous, robust and inclusive economy.
Build resilience—both physical and cultural—throughout the community.
Include diverse perspectives from all community stakeholders, residents, and businesses.
Recognize Palo Alto’s role as a leader and linkages with regional, national and global community.
Design Principles
In both evaluating this S/CAP, and in developing and evaluating future programs guided by it, Palo Alto is guided by
these design principles:
Focus on what’s feasible—recognizing that technology and costs are shifting rapidly.
Prioritize actions that are in the City’s control – recognizing that we can urge others to join us, but leading
by example is most effective
Be specific about the actions and costs to achieve near‐term goals, while accepting that longer‐term goals
can be more aspirational
Use ambient resources: Maximize the efficient capture and use of the energy and water that fall on Palo
Alto.
Full cost accounting: Use total (life cycle) cost of ownership and consideration of externalities to guide
financial decisions, while focusing on emission reductions that achievable at a point in time (i.e. not on life
cycle emissions).
Align incentives: Ensure that subsidies, if any, and other investment of public resources encourage what
we want and discourage what we don’t want.
Flexible platforms: Take practical near term steps that expand rather than restrict capacity for future
actions and pivots.
Decision Criteria
In selecting specific programs and policies to pursue, and in allocating public resources to support them, Palo Alto
will be guided by these decision criteria:
Greenhouse gas impact
Quality of life impact
7 http://www.paloaltocompplan.org/plan‐contents/governance‐element/
City of Palo Alto: Sustainability and Climate Action Plan 2016 April 18, 2016 Page 18 of 63
Mitigation cost
Return on investment (ROI)
Ecosystem health
Resilience
Impact on future generations
Overarching Policies and Legal Issues
The proposals set forth in the draft S/CAP will need to be specifically analyzed in the context of applicable local,
state and federal legal requirements, policy tradeoffs, budget and cost considerations, technological feasibility and
economic impacts to the City prior to any adoption. Implementation of any of the new policies and programs
described in the draft S/CAP will also be subject to the same considerations, as determined periodically by the Palo
Alto City Council, and will continue to take into account existing local, state, and federal laws, regulations, and
programs to avoid unnecessary duplication, minimize uncertainty, and maximize predictability.
Measures presented here constitute a preliminary menu of options for Council to consider as potential methods
for achieving greenhouse gas reduction goals adopted by Council; the proposals set forth in the draft S/CAP are for
discussion and the City of Palo Alto.
City of Palo Alto: Sustainability and Climate Action Plan 2016 April 18, 2016 Page 19 of 63
RETHINKING MOBILITY
Road transportation represents about 61% of Palo Alto’s carbon
footprint—and a congestion headache for everyone. Palo Alto’s
existing Comprehensive Plan calls for reducing reliance on the
automobile, and we've made some progress, with reductions in
commute trips by Single Occupant Vehicles (SOV) from 75% to 62%
between 2000 and 2014 and to 55% for commuters to Downtown.
We’ve also dramatically reduced car trips to Palo Alto schools, with 44% of high school students commuting by
bicycle. Beyond our borders, federal CAFE standards have reduced the carbon intensity of the US vehicle fleet. But
congestion continues unabated, and the majority of Palo Altans, and commuters to Palo Alto still make Single
Occupancy Vehicle (SOV) trips in fossil fuel powered vehicles.
GHGs from road travel are a function of two factors: Vehicle Miles Travelled (VMT), and the carbon intensity of
that travel (GHG/VMT). Reducing GHG/VMT is largely a function of vehicle technology, driven for example by
Federal CAFE standards, state policy, improved fuel efficiency, electrification and customer adoption. Most of
these factors are outside the purview of cities, but Palo Alto has some ways to influence VMT, by developing
attractive alternatives to SOV trips, and GHG/VMT, largely by encouraging electrification of City, resident and
commuter fleets.
Traditional approaches to transportation—adding capacity by building roads and parking—send the wrong signals,
encourage SOV travel and add pain. But what if we asked a different question: How could we make it more
convenient for anyone, anywhere, anytime to not have to get into a car and drive?
The key tools the City has for doing so include:
Optimizing transit
Electrifying Vehicles
Incentivizing People to change their travel modes
Integrating Transportation Network Companies (TNCs) and
Autonomous Vehicles
Implementing land use policies that support these shifts.
Goal: Expand non‐auto mobility options
This goal focuses on improving alternative modes of transportation to support
non‐automobile based mobility. The key: making it more convenient for
anyone, anywhere, at any time, not have to drive by
Expanding existing initiatives (such as bike infrastructure)
Targeting specific populations with relevant non‐SOV services that
they can afford
Developing advanced, software‐based solutions (MaaS)
Continually tracking performance of these programs overtime
“Mobility as a Service” (MaaS) is an integrative approach that proposes to shift
the traditional focus from fixed transportation to flexible, responsive
transportation services designed to meet people’s diverse and changing needs
by providing seamless regional multi‐modal mobility services, including
improved transit, and bike share; dynamic, on‐demand shuttles; flexible first &
TDM/TMA: The City supports a number of
emerging transportation demand
management (TDM) initiatives including its
first Transportation Management
Association (TMA)1, which will develop,
manage, and market transportation
programs to reduce single occupancy
vehicle trips in the Downtown Core area.
The Comprehensive Plan Update also
provides an opportunity to establish
policies that outline when TDM should be
applied and programs that specify how
compliance will be periodically measured
and enforced. TDM plans for individual
development projects can establish TDM
requirements and set enforceable SOV
mode‐share targets. TDM plans would
establish a list of acceptable TDM measures
that include transit use, prepaid transit
passes, commuter checks, car sharing,
carpooling, parking cash‐out, bicycling,
walking, and education and outreach to
support the use of these modes. They
should provide a system for
incorporating alternative measures as
new ideas for TDM are developed.
City of Palo Alto: Sustainability and Climate Action Plan 2016 April 18, 2016 Page 20 of 63
last mile solutions; walkable/bikeable communities; and smart apps that provide convenient access to all of these.
Figure 11. Mobility as a Service (MaaS) Schematic
Strategy 2030 Target 2030 GHG Emissions Reduction
T‐FAC‐1. Expand bicycle
infrastructure
Increase bike boulevard miles to 26
miles
Increase bike mode share, including
work commute trips, from 7% to 25%
8,400 MTCO2e
T‐FAC‐2. Expand transit options Increase transit ridership by 60% 19,200 MTCO2e
T‐FAC‐3. Grow ridesharing
services and mobility apps Increase in rideshare mode 6,400 MTCO2e
City of Palo Alto: Sustainability and Climate Action Plan 2016 April 18, 2016 Page 21 of 63
Strategy: Expand bicycle infrastructure (T‐FAC‐1)
Upgrade and integrate bicycle network (T‐FAC‐1.1)
Continue to integrate bicycle boulevards with separated bikeways on arterial street and off‐street paths
and trails to create an integrated network of internal and inter‐city routes that are safe and comfortable
for use by cyclists of all ages and abilities, and accessible to all major destinations in the City.
Ensure bikeway networks are represented on online mapping
Install bicycle and pedestrian sensors on utility poles to track transportation mode shares
Convert 40% of bike lanes to protected bike lanes by 2030.
Evaluate what would be required to achieve bicycle mode share levels being targeted by other cities,
ranging from Portland and Copenhagen and LA.
Develop bike routes that link effectively with adjacent jurisdictions.
Reduce gaps in bikeways by creating a stress map to identify gaps
Institute additional car‐free streets through extending days that University Avenue is car‐free
Replace parking lanes in specific areas with separated bike lanes
Increase bike boulevard mileage within Palo Alto (T‐FAC‐1.2)
Implement 2012 Bicycle and Pedestrian Transportation Plan proposals for new additions to the bicycle
boulevard network, and a design toolbox that emphasizes integrated wayfinding, speed limit reductions,
actuated arterial crossings, and greater use of traffic circles as a replacement for stop signs.
Increase bicycle boulevards network to increase bicycle mode share, safety, and mobility.
Reestablish and expand Palo Alto bike share program (T‐FAC‐1.3)
Work with neighboring cities to establish a program to continue a bike share program, and expand the
number of bikes from the 37 bikes at five stations to more than 20 stations by 2020.
Update the City’s Bicycle and Pedestrian Transportation Plan every 5 years.
Integrate bike share into regional transit payment media, commuter wallet and Clipper 2.0
Incentivize e‐bikes through rebates
Incentivize e‐bikes through charging infrastructure in bike racks
Strategy: Expand transit options (T‐FAC‐2)
Expand ridership on SamTrans, VTA, Dumbarton Express and Palo Alto shuttles. (T‐FAC‐2.1)
Complete shuttle study to determine what is needed to increase ridership
Increase marketing, information, and education about transit service and how to use different transit
options
Decrease shuttle headways to 10 minutes or less during commute hours and 15 minutes or less at other
times.
Contract low‐carbon or zero‐carbon shuttle fleet
Add transit service to high demand routes and upgrade service on other routes to expand the network of
routes achieving frequent service standards.
Institute queue jump lanes for high ridership and regional transit lines (e.g., Dumbarton Express, 522 ECR,
high ridership shuttles)
Support and enhance inclusion of public and private school commute patterns in the local transit system,
including schedule and route coordination.
Provide real time, “next bus” scheduling information at shelter stops, on smart phones and integrate into
“commuter wallet” as part of MaaS.
City of Palo Alto: Sustainability and Climate Action Plan 2016 April 18, 2016 Page 22 of 63
Provide (or invite) dynamically responsive shuttles.
Achieve target levels of ridership of Caltrain Modernization. (T‐FAC‐2.2)
Provide real‐time arrival information at shelters, stops and on phones, integrated into the "commuter
wallet"
Ensure inter‐operable, real time data across all transit agencies, and support efforts to integrate train, bus,
and shuttle schedules
Continue to encourage the provision of amenities such as seating, lighting, and signage including real‐time
arrival information, at bus and shuttle stops and train stations to increase rider comfort, safety, and
convenience.
Support continued development and improvement of the Caltrain Stations as important transportation
nodes for the City.
Develop and improve Caltrain stations as transit hubs with amenities such as bike share, showers, bike
parking, car share, and designated areas for transportation network companies
Improve access to Caltrain stations, including better connections to Stanford Research Park through new
shuttles
Focus new development near Caltrain stations, particularly within ¼ mile.
Work with Peninsula Corridor partners to upgrade the Caltrain corridor to provide reliable, frequent, all
day high capacity transit service to/from destinations along the US101 corridor from San Francisco to San
Jose (and on to Gilroy).
Decrease wait times for intercity transit to 10 minutes or less during commute hours and 15 minutes or
less at other times.
Ultimately, support development, as needed, of additional tracks and stations, and potentially grade
separation of all or a part of the Caltrain corridor.
Strategy: Grow ridesharing services and mobility apps (T‐FAC‐3)
Increase shared transportation ridership rates (T‐FAC‐3.1)
Facilitate casual carpool, and use of Transportation Network Companies (TNCs; eg, Uber, Lyft, and others)
for dynamic commute ridesharing and for first mile/last‐mile travel options.
Provide financial assistance and driver opportunities to low‐income TNC riders
Support infrastructure for ridesharing (T‐FAC‐3.2)
Adopt carpool matching app/service with City employees serving as initial pilot
Designate curb space for rideshare/carpool pick‐up and drop‐off downtown, and at Caltrain Station, and
near stations.
Install kiosks with information for TNCs
Promote and facilitate smart phone applications for seamless mobility payment and booking
options (T‐FAC‐3.3)
Develop or procure MaaS smart phone app to provide seamless plan/book/ride/pay service, either
through a Palo Alto “commuter wallet” or a regional collaboration
Work with regional partners to develop regional MaaS solutions
Require ride‐sharing transportation network companies to share data to support integrated services.
Embed specific requirements in requests for proposals (RFPs) to encourage utilization of common
technology platforms and expand services to diverse neighborhoods and populations
Provide real‐time reporting/dashboard on city travel/corridors
City of Palo Alto: Sustainability and Climate Action Plan 2016 April 18, 2016 Page 23 of 63
Provide additional incentives for carpooling and vanpooling (T‐FAC‐3.4)
Expand the availability and utilization of vanpools, especially targeting shared transportation to dispersed
employment sites in Palo Alto from parts of the SF Bay Area (and adjacent counties in the Central Valley
and Monterey Bay Areas) that are not especially transit accessible.
Designate carpool and vanpool parking spaces in City garages.
Provide discounted parking for carpools, paid parking refund for vehicles parked in public lots or on‐street.
Optimize parking signal timing for GHG reduction
Model/Pilot having neighborhoods compete to have greatest non‐SOV ridership
Goal: Create the right incentives for mobility
Despite the goal in Palo Alto’s 1998 Comprehensive Plan to reduce dependence on the private automobile, the City
provides free parking in public lots and garages—thus incentivizing driving to the tune for $3600/year8—and has
plans to build additional parking capacity. Instead, Palo Alto will identify ways (starting with a paid parking study
this spring) to phase out automobile subsidies by charging for parking—ideally in coordination with neighboring
jurisdictions—and investing the proceeds (as Stanford has successfully done9) in alternatives like transit, bicycle
infrastructure, ride sharing, walkable neighborhoods, etc.
Strategy 2030 Target 2030 GHG Emissions Reduction
T‐INC‐1. Provide universal transit
passes
75% of residents and employees have
universal transit passes
7,600 MTC02e
T‐INC‐2. Implement parking
pricing
100% of City sites and 50% of private
sites have parking pricing
18,400 MTCO2e
8 Amortized cost of providing parking spaces at investment of ~$60,000 per space.
9 Stanford’s program has reduced SOV rates from 72% to 42%, and avoided $107 in capital expenditures for
parking structures that were no longer needed. See, for example, http://bit.ly/1RCmSS2
City of Palo Alto: Sustainability and Climate Action Plan 2016 April 18, 2016 Page 24 of 63
Strategy: Provide universal transit access (T‐INC‐1)
Expand universal transit pass program for all residents and employees (T‐INC‐1.1)
Expand TDM policies to include requirements for the provision of Go‐Passes, as well as Eco‐Passes (a
similar universal transit pass offered by the Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority) to all residents of
existing and new multi‐unit buildings in the City, as well as all employees of Palo Alto employers with ten
or more employees.
This strategy is complementary to several other transportation strategies including T‐FAC‐3 Expand transit
facility and services, T‐INC‐2 parking pricing and management approaches, and T‐LU‐1 balanced
community.
Strategy: Implement parking pricing (T‐INC‐2)
Have all City employment sites and 50% of private employment sites to institute parking
pricing programs and policies (T‐INC‐2.1)
Complete and evaluate Paid Parking Study to identify primary recommendations and phasing for reducing
or eliminating parking subsidies.
Pilot voluntary parking cash‐out with non‐union City employees and change memorandum of
understanding with City union employees to allow parking cash‐out
Reduce or eliminate requirements for off‐street parking for new commercial/residential development
Require unbundling parking costs from lease or sale of commercial and residential units
Use meters/permits or time limits to manage parking demand in congested areas.
Expand paid parking strategies in specific areas (T‐INC‐2.2)
Evaluate the use of paid or meter parking strategies for on‐street and off‐street parking to facilitate
parking availability and maximize parking utilization.
Institute a “free parking surcharge” in select areas, and apply revenues to non‐SOV alternatives
Consider comparable programs for the California Avenue business district, the Stanford Research Park and
potentially other districts.
Assess off‐street parking requirements (T‐INC‐2.3)
Review off street minimum vehicle parking requirements
Determine whether they can be reduced in situations where building location or design could reduce the
demand for parking spaces and where reductions are acceptable in exchange for desired uses such as car‐
share spaces or alternative fuel vehicle infrastructure.
Explore “parking maximum” and trip cap requirements
Apply parking revenues to travel and parking demand (T‐INC‐2.4)
Evaluate use of parking revenues and the development of a new in‐lieu fee program for transportation
programs
Support the downtown transportation management association (TMA) to reduce single‐occupancy driving
Consider using parking revenues to pay for streetscape improvements that make biking, walking and
transit more appealing
Goal: Seek balanced development
Palo Alto can potentially reduce commute‐related VMT though development patterns that support shorter
commutes and complete neighborhoods, by enabling people to live closer to where they work. This is a sensitive
City of Palo Alto: Sustainability and Climate Action Plan 2016 April 18, 2016 Page 25 of 63
and controversial topic, but its impact is so significant that it must be included here, and discussed and resolved in
the community.
Palo Alto has long had an imbalance between jobs and housing, with almost three times as many jobs and
employed residents in 2014. This imbalance between jobs and employed residents contributes to local and
regional traffic, greenhouse gas emissions, and other impacts, as some workers travel long distances between their
residence and workplace. The imbalance is projected to grow if the City does not take affirmative steps to address
the issue through the Comprehensive Plan Update. These steps could include:
Increased housing densities
Increased areas under existing maximum zoning rules
Additional regulation of employment densities
Additional commercial downzoning
This strategy would include adopting a land use and transportation scenario to enable additional growth and
development in transit accessible areas, provided that all such development was designed for low
traffic/energy/carbon/water impact and would be approved only with an integral plan resulting in no in no net
increase in vehicle trips to/from Palo Alto. (Mitigation Measure Trans1a in the Comprehensive Plan EIR would
provide this type of requirement.)
Strategy 2030 Target 2030 GHG Emissions Reduction
T‐LU‐1. Develop zero‐impact,
mixed‐use housing
Target 2.95 jobs‐housing ratio10
2,900 MTCO2e
10This jobs‐housing ratio is expressed as the ratio between jobs and employed residents.
City of Palo Alto: Sustainability and Climate Action Plan 2016 April 18, 2016 Page 26 of 63
Vehicle Trip Cap:
Mountain View sets maximum parking
requirements and eliminates minimum off‐street
requirements, and targets 30‐45% single‐
occupancy vehicle mode share, depending on the
density of employment within buildings. One
employer faces penalties of $100K for each 1%
over the cap. Similar caps are in place in
Sunnyvale, Menlo Park and Cupertino.
A mitigation measure in the Comp Plan Draft EIR
suggests a similar approach, requiring aggressive
TDM plans, with quantitative performance
measures and enforcement, as well as
requirements to off‐set any new trips that cannot
be reduced through TDM.
Strategy: Increase zero‐impact, mixed‐use housing (T‐LU‐1)
Explore “zero impact” standards in residential and commercial development (T‐LU‐1.1)
Use sustainable neighborhood development criteria to enhance connectivity, walkability, access to
amenities, and support housing diversity
Accelerate transit‐oriented development (TOD) of infill and redevelopment that creates no additional
vehicle trips, traffic/energy/carbon/water impact.
Support additional mixed use development (T‐LU‐1.2)
Identify and implement strategies to increase housing density and diversity, including mixed‐use
development near a range of types new community services, through amending the zoning code to allow
high‐density residential in commercial areas near transit
Identify, as part of long‐range planning, potential sites for transit‐oriented development with
higher allowed density (T‐LU‐1.4)
Plan for additional—zero impact—housing units beyond current levels under consideration.
Areas for potential growth include Stanford Research Park, downtown core, Stanford Shopping Center, as
well as additional infill through “backyard cottages” and other accessory dwelling units.
Expand housing options consistent with zero‐impact goals (T‐LU‐1.3)
Consider creating an amnesty program to legalize existing illegal second units, where consistent with
compliance with code standards, and character of existing neighborhoods.
Emphasize and encourage the development of affordable housing to support Palo Alto’s share of regional
housing needs.
Prioritize street infrastructure improvements to prioritize GHG emissions reductions (T‐LU‐1.5)
Redevelop existing streets to open up street space to prioritize shared modes.
Embrace “tactical urbanism” to rapidly experiment with different alternatives and learn what works.
Prioritize traffic signal timing to reduce GHG
emissions instead of amount of delay in car
travel.
Goal: Reduce the carbon
intensity of vehicular travel
Expanding the percentage of trips taken in EVs would
have the largest impact on emissions from road
transportation, which is in turn the largest category of
Palo Alto emissions. Since the city’s electricity is 100%
from renewable resources, taking steps to encourage all
new vehicles purchased to be EVs or other zero
emissions technology would significantly reduce
emissions associated with on‐road vehicles.
Palo Alto already has one of the highest rates of EV
ownership in the country (estimated by staff at 3‐4% of registered vehicles), but several factors limit EV adoption,
City of Palo Alto: Sustainability and Climate Action Plan 2016 April 18, 2016 Page 27 of 63
including price (which is dropping rapidly), total cost of ownership (often poorly understood), and vehicle
performance— especially “range anxiety.”
Initiatives to overcome these barriers, and keep Palo Alto’s EV adoption well ahead of the State’s aggressive goals,
could include: public education, target incentives and charging infrastructure development.
Based on the ratio of jobs to employed residents and an analysis of VMT, approximately 93% of Palo Alto’s
transportation‐related emissions are estimated to be related to trips into or out of Palo Alto for work, shopping
and other purposes (i.e. the VMT is not associated with trips that are internal to Palo Alto). An estimated 78% of
the total vehicle trips have origins or destinations external to Palo Alto. 11
Strategy 2030 Target 2030 GHG Emissions Reduction
T‐EV‐1. Electrify Palo Alto‐based
vehicles
90% of vehicles in Palo Alto are zero
emission
22,900 MTCO2e
T‐EV‐2. Electrify inbound vehicles 50% of inbound vehicles (non‐Palo Alto
based) are zero emission
27,000 MTCO2e
Strategy: Explore ways to expand charging infrastructure across Palo Alto (T‐EV‐0)
Reconvene the electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) task force
Examine how to promote prewiring of EV infrastructure in existing building to remove barriers for future
electric vehicle owners
Develop strategies for expanding city‐wide EV charging infrastructure.
Develop pricing policies and CPAU rate structures (consistent with legal requirements) for
electric vehicle charging at home, in places of business and shopping, as well as in the public
right‐of‐way and parking structures.
Develop an EV promotion roadmap that identifies all policy and technical issues, barriers and
opportunities to focus on over the next 3 to 5 years.
Identify grant opportunities, rebates, incentives, and other promotional programs to
stimulate electric vehicle ownership and support EV infrastructure, and coordination
opportunities related to electric vehicle ownership and infrastructure.
Explore opportunities to partner with major manufacturers like Tesla and Google to identify
policy roadblocks and collaboration opportunities.
11 Estimated 95,742 jobs and 34,428 employed residents. (Source: 2016 Official City Data Set.) Estimates of
Internal, Internal‐External, and External‐Internal VMT and vehicle trips are from the Comp Plan Draft EIR p. 4.13‐45.
S/CAP allocates road emissions differently than the CompPlan analysis, where emissions from all trips, which are
assumed to be round trips, are equally split between inbound and outbound. Since potential strategies available to
Palo Alto to affect those trips are different for inbound vehicles than for those based in Palo Alto, the S/CAP
allocates these emissions based on trip origination.
City of Palo Alto: Sustainability and Climate Action Plan 2016 April 18, 2016 Page 28 of 63
Strategy: Electrify and decarbonize Palo Alto‐based vehicles (T‐EV‐1)
Explore time‐of‐use (TOU) electric rate options for residential customers, including EV
customers, residential customers, including EV customers, for residential charging. (T‐EV‐1.1)
Develop policies to permit installation of on street electric vehicle charging for private use, including for
multi‐family dwelling units
Consider rebates or financial incentives for Palo Alto residents (T‐EV‐1.2)
Identify grant opportunities, rebates, incentives, and other promotional programs to stimulate electric
vehicle ownership and support EV infrastructure, and coordination opportunities related to electric
vehicle ownership and infrastructure.
Develop an EV promotion roadmap that identifies all policy and technical issues, barriers and
opportunities to focus on over the next 3 to 5 years.
Explore providing rebates to Palo Alto residents and employees for electric vehicle and/or EVSE purchases,
using Low Carbon Fuel Standard funds, or other funding sources .
Explore new models for financing EVs in Palo Alto
Seek to convert public transportation vehicles to EVs. (T‐EV‐1.3)
Accelerate the electrification of City fleet
Specify and provide bidding preference for electric or zero emission options for Palo Alto shuttles.
Work with SamTrans and VTA to encourage the adoption of electric, fuel cell or other zero emission
vehicles
Provide more information about electric vehicles including considerations related to charging
infrastructure/programs/policies, vehicle range, lifecycle costs of ownership compared with conventional
vehicles
Increase education and outreach related to electric vehicles (T‐EV‐1.4)
Provide more information about electric vehicles including considerations related to charging
infrastructure/programs/policies, vehicle range, lifecycle costs of ownership compared with conventional
vehicles
Strategy: Electrify and decarbonize inbound vehicles (T‐EV‐2)
Prioritize workplace and retail charging requirements (T‐EV‐2.1)
Require and/or incentivize employers to provide workplace charging through reduced parking
requirements, or other financial incentives.
Provide preferential parking for electric vehicles at employment sites and retail/shopping areas
Make it easier to find public charging stations (T‐EV‐2.2)
Develop (or encourage private sector firms to develop) smartphone app to show real‐time charging
information and predictive analytics to indicate likely availability of chargers
Create incentives for high‐mileage vehicles to convert to electric or other zero emission
vehicle (T‐EV‐2.3)
Explore policies and incentives for transportation network companies and car‐sharing programs.
City of Palo Alto: Sustainability and Climate Action Plan 2016 April 18, 2016 Page 29 of 63
BUILDING AN EFFICIENT
ELECTRIC CITY
Palo Alto has made remarkable progress in advancing energy
efficiency, through CPAU’s incentive programs and the City’s nation‐
leading Green Building Ordinances and Energy Reach Codes, and in
decarbonizing its electricity sector, through CPAU’s carbon neutral
electricity (CNE) initiative, which is largely responsible for Palo Alto’s remarkable 36% GHG emissions reduction to
date. The CNE Resource Plan, adopted in 2013, directed CPAU to eliminate fossil‐generated electricity by (1)
expanding purchases of long‐term renewable energy contracts to about half of Palo Alto’s electricity needs by
2017, (2) relying on existing carbon‐free hydroelectric resources for the other half of electric supply needs, and (3)
purchasing short‐term renewable resources and/or renewable energy credits (RECs) to counterbalance emissions
from remaining “brown” or “market power purchases until those long‐term renewable energy contracts are in the
place.
Emissions from natural gas use currently represent ~25% of Palo Alto’s remaining carbon footprint.12 CNE opens to
opportunity reduce natural gas use through electrification—“fuel switching” various natural gas uses to
electricity—in addition to continued efficiency measures.
The vast majority of natural gas usage is related to today’s building stock (existing buildings), with commercial and
industrial buildings accounting for 63% of natural gas usage in the City. Palo Alto will first seek to reduce natural
gas usage through energy efficiency and conservation, followed by electrification of water heating, space heating
and cooking where cost effective. Figure 12 illustrates the estimated distribution of natural gas usage in Palo Alto.
12 Natural Gas (i.e., methane, is a potent greenhouse gas, with a global warming potential (GWP) at least 23
times that of CO2. Recent research suggests that the climate impacts may be 80‐100% higher.
City of Palo Alto: Sustainability and Climate Action Plan 2016 April 18, 2016 Page 30 of 63
Figure 13: Summary of Natural Gas Usage in Palo Alto Buildings
I
The S/CAP roadmap is based on six leverage points:
Tenant improvement pathway: energy efficiency upgrades, and electrification requirements
Voluntary retrofit pathway: Palo Alto Utilities incentive programs (point‐of‐sale/distributors and
contractors), education/outreach
Predictive failure analysis: to anticipate
Replace‐on‐burnout: develop programs to quickly retrofit with efficient electric equipment, particularly
for small businesses.
Time‐of‐sale pathway: energy efficiency upgrades and electrification requirements
Institutional pathway: removing barriers by streamlining permitting, advocating at the state level to
address CEC requirements for cost‐effectiveness (so we can require electric equipment), making it easier
to “do the right thing” (service and convenience)
Goal: Efficiency and electrification
Efficiency comes first. More efficient buildings require less electricity, natural gas and water, reducing demand on
CPAU and saving customers money. Reduced electrical demand from efficiency—even of Palo Alto’s already
carbon neutral electricity—provides more capacity to meet electricity needs generated by the EV growth and the
fuel switching initiatives described below.
City of Palo Alto: Sustainability and Climate Action Plan 2016 April 18, 2016 Page 31 of 63
Strategy: Encourage advanced efficiency and integrative design, ultimately for
Net Zero (or Net Positive) buildings that exceed state minimum requirements
for energy efficiency (NG‐EE‐1)
Develop energy reach code to exceed state minimum for energy efficiency in all new
buildings, and all existing buildings doing work that requires a building permit. (NG‐EE‐1.1)
Develop energy reach code every 3 years in coordination with building code update; focus efficiency first
with carbon as component of policy
Provide alternate building code pathways for all‐electric homes
Evaluate feasibility of Heat Pump technology in buildings from an electrical as well as cost efficiency
perspective.
Partner with other jurisdictions and NRDC to align energy efficiency and carbon reduction goals in
California Energy Commission (CEC) regulations and state policy.
Increase education and outreach to promote the policy, and to improve ease of implementation and
predictability for project applicants
Explore new or expanded programs and policies for energy efficiency in existing buildings (NG‐
EE‐1.2)
Assess opportunities for residential energy use disclosure requirements
Explore potential incentives or requirements for energy audits to be completed every 5 years for existing
buildings
Consider time‐of‐sale requirements for energy upgrades (e.g., Residential/Commercial Energy
Conservation Ordinance)
Continue to expand energy efficiency incentive and technical assistance programs through Palo Alto
Utilities to exceed current goals
Goal: Reduce natural gas usage in existing businesses
Reduce natural gas usage through energy efficiency and conservation, followed by electrification of water heating,
space heating and cooking where cost effective.
Strategy 2030 Target 2030 GHG Emissions Reduction
NG‐COMM‐1. Electrify water
heating in businesses
50% of commercial water heating is
electric
21,200 MTCO2e
NG‐COMM‐2. Electrify space
heating in businesses
50% of commercial space heating is
electric
15,900 MTCO2e
NG‐COOK‐1. Electrify
commercial cooking 40% of commercial cooking is electric 11,300 MTCO2e
City of Palo Alto: Sustainability and Climate Action Plan 2016 April 18, 2016 Page 32 of 63
Strategy: Electrify water heating in businesses (NG‐COMM‐1)
Determine monthly costs associated with hot water fuel switching (NG‐COMM‐1.1)
Using the residential analysis as a template, evaluate the monthly energy costs to consumers associated
with switching from natural gas to electric hot water systems. Study should include buildings with both
low and high hot water demand.
Assess requirements for major renovations and retrofits (NG‐COMM‐1.2)
Study feasibility of including heat pump water heater (HPWH) installations as part of CalGreen Tier 1 and
Tier 2 standard
Pilot electric hot water in a high‐profile building (NG‐COMM‐1.3)
Leverage a high profile City building – such as City Hall – to demonstrate the ability of an entirely electric
system to supply all the domestic hot water needs of a large commercial building.
Investigate changes to building code to encourage or if possible require hot water fuel
switching for existing buildings (NG‐COMM‐1.4)
Explore building code requirements for existing buildings to switch from gas to electric hot water systems
upon the end of life of existing gas hot water systems.
Explore regulatory barriers associated with California Energy Commission cost‐effectiveness requirements
for ordinances that would require electrification of water heating
Strategy: Electrify space heating in businesses (NG‐COMM‐2)
Determine monthly costs associated with space heating fuel switching (NG‐COMM‐2.1)
Evaluate the monthly energy costs to consumers associated with switching from natural gas to electric
space heating systems. Study should include building with both low and high space heating demand.
Pilot electric space heating in a high‐profile building (NG‐COMM‐2.2)
Leverage a high profile City building – such as City Hall – to demonstrate the ability of an entirely electric
system to supply all the space heating needs of a large commercial building.
Investigate changes to building code to encourage or if possible require space heating fuel
switching for existing buildings (NG‐COMM‐2.3)
Explore building code requirements for existing buildings to switch from gas to electric space heating
systems upon the end of life of existing gas space heating systems.
Study feasibility of including heat pump or resistive space heating installations as part of CalGreen Tier 1
and Tier 2 standard.
Key leverage points for retrofitting with electric equipment include tenant improvement projects, time‐of‐
sale, replace‐on‐burnout, voluntary programs and removing institutional barriers such as permitting, etc.
Strategy: Electrify commercial cooking (NG‐COOK‐1)
Encourage restaurants to switch from gas to electric cooking equipment (NG‐COOK‐1.1)
Encourage restaurant owners—through education, hands‐on demonstrations and potentially utility
incentives—to replace natural gas cooking equipment at end of life and in new restaurants with electric
cooking equipment through the provision of incentives.
City of Palo Alto: Sustainability and Climate Action Plan 2016 April 18, 2016 Page 33 of 63
Host “hands‐on” demo events for electric cooking equipment tailored to the restaurant
industry (NG‐COMM‐2.2)
City hosts events showcasing electric cooking equipment and restaurant owners/chefs who have installed
electric equipment to educate the restaurant community on the advantages of these technologies.
(Modeled on successful “ride and drive” events for EVs.)
Goal: Reduce natural gas usage in existing homes
Reduce natural gas usage through energy efficiency and conservation, followed by electrification of water heating,
space heating and cooking where cost effective.
Strategy 2030 Target 2030 GHG Emissions Reduction
NG‐RES‐1. Electrify residential
water heating 70% of water heaters are electric 13,600 MTCO2e
NG‐RES‐2. Electrify residential
space heating
60% of residential space heating is
electric
23,300 MTCO2e
City of Palo Alto: Sustainability and Climate Action Plan 2016 April 18, 2016 Page 34 of 63
Strategy: Electrify residential water heating (NG‐RES‐1)
Education and outreach on heat pump water heaters for homeowners. (NG‐RES‐1.1)
Provide customers with information on options and cost‐effectiveness of heat pump water heaters,
including web‐based calculator tools
Educate contractor and installer workforce (NG‐RES‐1.2)
Inform and educate water heater installers about heat pump technologies. Explore options for trainings or
advertise trainings available.
NG‐RES‐1.3. Funding and incentives for heat pump water heaters
Explore funding sources for heat pump water heater rebates for customers, as well as funding sources to
incentivize installers to offer heat pump water heaters as a default option.
Explore a 24‐hour emergency hot water heater replacement program (NG‐RES‐1.4)
Explore developing a streamlined process to assist Palo Alto residents with replacing water heaters
upon—or before—failure, with heat pump water heaters in a.
Utilize building data to target programs. (NG‐RES‐1.5)
Explore development of an analytic process that would enable staff to predict the life expectancy of older
water heaters based on past building permit data and use these predictions to target promotion and
installation of heat pump water heaters before natural gas water heaters reach end of life.
Strategy: Electrify residential space heating (NG‐RES‐2)
Explore feasibility and economics of retrofitting multi‐family buildings (NG‐RES‐2.1)
Target multi‐family buildings that presently have electric baseboard heating to approach with heat pump
space heating technologies.
Provide resources to homeowners to convert existing homes to all‐electric (NG‐RES‐2.2)
Compile list of qualified architects, develop case studies, set up communication channels for homeowners
to share ideas and host workshops on electrifying existing homes.
Provide funding sources for electrifying existing homes (NG‐RES‐2.3)
Explore feasibility of new funding sources and incentives to electrify existing homes on a pilot scale.
Develop retail electric rate schedules for homes that electrify (NG‐RES‐2.4)
Evaluate all‐electric rate schedule for residential customers as part of the upcoming electric cost of service
analysis; if feasible, recommend such retail rates for Council consideration and approval.
Goal: Reduce natural gas in new buildings
New construction offers a unique opportunity to build zero net energy buildings with low incremental costs. With
the new California energy code requirements and the plummeting price of LED bulbs, the only real cost to a
homeowner is the cost of a solar PV system, which is also dropping rapidly.
California is requiring “net zero energy” for all new residential construction by 2020, and all new commercial
construction by 2030. Palo Alto is currently considering whether and how to accelerate those deadlines in the next
Green Building Ordinance.
City of Palo Alto: Sustainability and Climate Action Plan 2016 April 18, 2016 Page 35 of 63
Strategy: Encourage all‐electric new buildings (NG‐GAS‐1)
Strategy 2030 Target 2030 GHG Emissions Reduction
NG‐GAS‐1. Encourage all‐electric
new buildings
New buildings are zero net energy
ahead of state targets
11,900 MTCO2e
Expand programs for incentives for zero net energy new buildings (NG‐GAS‐1.1)
Continue to develop energy efficiency programs targeted at new buildings that meet specified energy use
intensity targets appropriate for the Palo Alto climate zone.
Provide technical assistance and educational resources for all‐electric zero net energy
buildings (NG‐GAS‐1.2)
Provide additional educational and outreach programs related to all‐electric building design strategies and
technologies for architects, design teams and contractors.
Require new homes to be zero net energy ahead of state goals (NG‐GAS‐1.3)
Explore legal/regulatory ramifications of all‐electric buildings without natural gas hookups.
Explore additional residential and commercial building code changes for new construction and remodeling
projects to expedite electrification.
Explore requirements for all‐electric new construction. (NG‐GAS‐1.4)
Explore building code requirements for electric water and space heating in all new commercial buildings.
Explore feasibility of requiring all‐electric construction in new buildings and/or major renovations
Goal: Reduce the carbon intensity of natural gas
Similar to the approach utilized for carbon neutral electric supply, Palo Alto will continue to explore opportunities
to procure biogas and/or carbon offsets in the short term in order to “green the gas” while we work towards
reduced natural gas consumption and infrastructure. Carbon offsets and biogas supplies should be evaluated and
monitored in parallel with electrification and progress on reductions in natural gas consumption in Palo Alto to
ensure that the City meets its 2030 targets.
Strategy: Eliminate natural gas emissions with carbon offsets or biogas (NG‐OFF‐1)
Make PaloAltoGreen Gas program opt‐out (NG‐OFF‐1.1)
PaloAltoGreen Gas program is currently an opt‐in program, which limits participation. The program should
be modified as an opt‐out program, providing flexibility to customers who truly do not want to participate.
Consider carbon offsets to offset remaining GHG emissions. (NG‐OFF‐1.1)
After all feasible measures are taken to reduce natural gas consumption, utilize carbon offsets – either by
making the PaloAltoGreen Gas an “opt‐out” program or the purchase of carbon offsets by the City.
Procure biogas supply. (NG‐OFF‐1.2)
Palo Alto will continue to assess opportunities to incorporate biogas (Renewable Natural Gas) supply into
the natural gas mix.
City of Palo Alto: Sustainability and Climate Action Plan 2016 April 18, 2016 Page 36 of 63
ZERO WASTE AND THE
CIRCULAR ECONOMY
Reducing the amount of waste discarded in landfills is an
important strategy for both greenhouse gas reductions and
overall sustainability. Diverting waste from landfills occurs
through product changes, material use reduction, reuse,
recycling and composting. .Equally important, these diversion
strategies will create a “circular economy” where materials, water and energy do not create waste or pollute, but
rather contribute their value back into a sustainable, circular cycle of human and ecosystem activity.
Achieving a “zero waste” will require reducing the overall amount of waste generated within the City—through
purchasing decisions and material use reduction (and ultimately product design), as well as more effective sorting,
recovery and recycling.
In 2007, the City completed a Zero Waste Operational Plan established a goal of 73% diversion by 2011 and 90% by
2021— well beyond state requirements13. This new S/CAP sets a new goal of 95% Diversion by 2030.
Goal: Achieve 95% landfill diversion by 2030, and ultimately
zero waste
Strategy 2030 Target 2030 GHG Emissions Reduction
SW‐1. Achieve zero waste Achieve 95% diversion rate 9,500 MTCO2
13 California Assembly Bill 939 was passed in 1989, and mandated local jurisdictions to meet a solid waste diversion
goal of 50% by 2000. Furthermore, each jurisdiction was required to create an Integrated Waste Management Plan
that looked at recycling programs, purchasing of recycled products and waste minimization.
City of Palo Alto: Sustainability and Climate Action Plan 2016 April 18, 2016 Page 37 of 63
Strategy: Enhance policies and programs for recycling, composting and reuse
(SW‐1)
Increase education and outreach for existing waste diversion programs (SW‐1.1)
Promote existing programs, including City’s Household Hazardous Waste Program, through aggressive
outreach, initiatives and extended producer responsibility (EPR) initiatives.
Reduce the number of non‐recyclable or non‐compostable materials in the community (SW‐1.2)
To the maximum extent practical, utilize the municipal code to restrict non‐recyclable or non‐
compostable products sold in the City
Work with partner agencies and the business community to develop producer‐funded take‐back programs.
Engage local businesses to increase the number of companies participating in the program and adopting
best practices related to food waste, landscape waste and recycling.
Partner with local agencies to promote recycling and reuse (SW‐1.3)
Partner with local non‐profits (e.g., Goodwill) to boost efforts in material reuse and exchange
Support Bay Area Green Business Certification program that requires adoption of waste reduction
practices
Revise and implement new more stringent C&D ordinance recovery measures (SW‐1.4)
Work with stakeholders and regional waste recovery facility management to increase the City’s existing
C&D recovery percentage requirements.
Emphasize on site reuse or off site salvaged to provide a higher and better use for the materials than
recycling or disposal.
Strategy 2030 Target 2030 GHG Emissions Reduction
SW‐2. Implement an energy
savings and pollutant reduction
strategy for waste collection
vehicles
100% electric (or low‐carbon fuel) waste
collection vehicle fleet
Zero GHG emissions (if electric vehicles
available )
City of Palo Alto: Sustainability and Climate Action Plan 2016 April 18, 2016 Page 38 of 63
Strategy: Implement an energy savings and pollutant reduction strategy for
waste collection vehicles (SW‐2)
Utilize electric or alternative fueled waste collection vehicles as soon as possible (SW‐2.1)
Change to a 100% CNG fleet in the next (2021) waste collector agreement.
Monitor the availability of electric collection vehicles, and introduce them as rapidly as feasibile.
Eliminate the separate collection of garbage (SW‐2.2)
As the City moves closer to zero waste, more of the waste materials collected should be recoverable
(recyclable or compostable), evaluate eliminating separate collection of garbage, and moving to a two‐
cart collection scheme.
Minimize transportation and manage the City’s waste as locally as possible (SW‐2.3)
Track developments in processing technology to identify options that could be implemented at local or
regional locations.
City of Palo Alto: Sustainability and Climate Action Plan 2016 April 18, 2016 Page 39 of 63
GETTING SMART
ABOUT WATER
Palo Alto has done an outstanding job of meeting annual water
use reduction requirements of the current “drought.” But both
potable water supplies and hydroelectric needs could be
challenged by long‐term shifts in California’s precipitation
regime.
With shifting climate patterns14, significant uncertainty exists about whether drought conditions are the “new
normal” for California, with a possible “new normal” of less (and less reliable) precipitation. Moreover, most
climate projections show increases in average temperatures and reduced snowpack where Palo Alto sources much
of its water—which could impact Palo Alto’s hydroelectric power and thus its carbon neutral electricity strategy.
Given current climatic projections, long‐term increases in water supplies from San Francisco Public Utilities
Commission (SFPUC) appear highly unlikely. It would be prudent to reduce water consumption while exploring
ways to increase the availability and use of recycled water.
Goal: Reduce consumption of potable water
CPAU water demand management measures (DMMs) have supported customers in reducing water use 27%
between 2000 and 2010. CPAU’s drought response programs have enabled the City to reduce water use by 24% in
2015 compared with 2013 levels, far ahead of the State’s mandated reduction requirements. Long‐term water
reduction strategies should focus not only on implementing these procedures during times of drought, but rather
using the incentives and policy drivers listed in the water management plan to drive sustained water consumption
reduction.
14 The California Department of Water Resources (http://www.sei‐international.org/news‐and‐media/3252), the
Association of California Water Agencies (http://www.acwa.com/events/2016‐executive‐briefing‐defining‐new‐
normal) and others are examining the potential impacts of Climate Change on Hydrologic Trends and Water
Management.
City of Palo Alto: Sustainability and Climate Action Plan 2016 April 18, 2016 Page 40 of 63
Strategy: Strengthen policies for community‐wide water conservation and water
efficiency (W‐1)
Provide increased funding for landscape conservation rebate program to drive participation
in program (W‐1.1)
Supplement existing funding for the landscape conservation rebate program in order to offer additional
rebates for Palo Alto residents and businesses beyond the $2.00 per square foot offered by SCVWD.
Increasing rebates to $3.00 ‐ $4.00 per square foot will drive increased participation in the program.
Develop landscape water budgets and link to block rates to discourage excessive water
consumption (W‐1.2 )
Develop landscape water budgets for high‐use customers based on landscape area, plant materials and
climate condition.
To the extent feasible, link landscape water budgets to tailored block rate schedules to encourage
conservation.
Develop long‐term efficiency goals, and aggressively market toward them (W‐1.3)
Set long‐term, strategic targets for increased installation rates of water efficient fixtures and appliances
and use a variety of marketing techniques – hardware swaps, replacement programs, rebates and
incentives – to achieve these targets.
Develop and implement water efficient landscape and indoor water regulations
Incorporate net zero water standards in future Green Building Ordinances (W‐1.4)
Build net zero water standards into future Green Building Ordinances.
Achieve that goal through a combination of rainfall harvesting, aggressive conservation, and water
recycling, and buildings that can achieve self‐sufficiency from the water “grid”.
Evolve Palo Alto landscapes to adapt to changing precipitation trends, and allocate water
resources to protect our urban canopy (W‐1.5)
Emphasize incorporation of drought‐tolerant and drought‐resistant plants and landscape design into
publically owned land – including parks, school yards and medians.
Educate and incent CPAU customers to adapt and evolve their landscapes.
Goal: Supplement existing water supplies
In addition to reducing potable water consumption, Palo Alto will seek to supplement existing SFPUC water
supplies with “new” sources, to provide redundant supplies that
strengthen resilience and water security, including: 1) increasing
local water capture, 2) maximizing the potential for water recycling
and 3) exploration of decentralized, on‐site waste water treatment.
Net Positive Water
What if Palo Alto, or specific buildings,
could capture more water than it used?
What would it take? What would it look
like?
City of Palo Alto: Sustainability and Climate Action Plan 2016 April 18, 2016 Page 41 of 63
Strategy: Supplement SFPUC water supply with other sources of potable and
non‐potable water (W‐2)
Create and implement a Green Infrastructure Plan that prioritizes green streets infrastructure
(W‐2.1)
Create policies that integrate the design of green infrastructure into City and private sector projects to
store, infiltrate, cleanse and evapotranspire stormwater.
Expand permeable paving and reduce impermeable paving.
Increase rainfall infiltration, replenish groundwater, utilize soil to filter pollutants, increase habitat, retain
and detain stormwater and meet State and Federal permit requirements
Utilize: bioswales, raingardens, infiltration basins, retention basins, rain barrels cisterns, green roofs,
vegetation, and permeable blocks, pavement and systems.
Incentivize water harvesting and downspout disconnections (W‐2.2)
Provide education, support and incentives to promote the capture of rainwater and greywater
to be utilized for landscape and other water needs.
Require and/or incentivize the disconnection of downspouts to redirect water to landscapes,
rain barrels, cisterns, or permeable areas – instead of the storm drain.
Expand recycled water capacity and uses (W‐2.3)
Continue to investigate methods for expanding water recycling from the RWQCP, including: facility
upgrade at the Plant, increased delivery to Mountain View, new delivery to East Palo Alto and other
RWQCP partners, and interties to the North and South of the RWQCP service area
Continue to explore expansion of purple pipe infrastructure within Palo Alto
Explore new uses for recycled water including the production of purified (potable) water groundwater
storage/recharge, and ultimately direct potable reuse.
Explore and pilot advanced technology water recycling technologies, including onsite
treatment, and energy, water and materials harvesting from wastewater (W‐2.4)
Investigate the potential of onsite wastewater treatments systems that enable property owners to treat
and reuse wastewater on site.
Investigate NASA, Stanford and other onsite water treatment technologies for possible pilot at City Hall
Explore beneficial use of wastewater biosolids, including anaerobic digestion, gasification, pyrolysis,
including various uses for the energy produced, such as microbial fuel cells and hydrogen production
Phase out incineration of biosolids by 2019.
W‐2.5 Evaluate potential for large scale water storage beneath parks, schools, paring lots, etc.
Study the feasibility of large‐scale underground water storage that enables rapid storage of water during
large precipitation events that would otherwise be destined for storm drains.
Beneficially Reuse 100 % of the treated wastewater from the RWQCP (W‐2.5)
Evaluate minimum flows and maximum nutrient/pollutant loadings for Bay Discharge
Evaluate benefits and amounts of discharge to local marsh systems, creek augmentation, sea level rise
mitigation and groundwater infiltration/injection
Combine results with W‐2.3 explorations to insure that 100% of the wastewater is ultimately used to
benefit human and ecosystem needs
City of Palo Alto: Sustainability and Climate Action Plan 2016 April 18, 2016 Page 42 of 63
MUNICIPAL
OPERATIONS –
LEADING THE WAY
The City of Palo Alto has long demonstrated its
commitment to sustainability and reductions of greenhouse gas emissions through its municipal
operations. Palo Alto city government’s environmental footprint is small—3.1% of citywide
electricity use, 2.9% of natural gas use and 5.3% of water use in FY 2014. But resource efficiency,
low carbon and other sustainability initiatives can save money, improve operating performance,
reduce emissions, and provide leadership by for the community. And the City has an important
role in both leading by example has a powerful impact, both by providing a governing framework
that supports sustainability throughout the community and inspiring within out community and to
neighboring communities. The city government’s commitment: “We walk the talk, and we go first.”
Goal: Efficient City Buildings
The City spends approximately $6 million annually on utilities; “typical” 10‐20% potential efficiency savings could
result in more than $600,000 saved per year. The City requires LEED certification for all new City buildings over
10,000 square feet, and assessment of “green building” potential for substantial renovations and additions over
5,000 square feet. These requirements may not have captured all opportunities, and advances in green building
design and technology continually open new ones.
Strategy: Use City Buildings as Demonstration Projects for Advanced Building
Technologies
Explore opportunities to electrify existing and new City buildings, including utilizing heat pump water
heaters and heat pump space heating technologies.
Require LEED™ Gold or Platinum certification for new City buildings, and at least LEED certification for
retrofits.15
Strategy: Develop a Facilities Master Plan for City buildings
Analyze resource consumption in City buildings to identify priority opportunities for efficiency gains and
management improvements.
Identify capital improvement goals, and methods for ensuring sustainability and efficiency goals are
embedded in the capital improvement process.
Provide criteria for Facilities, Engineering and the Sustainability Office to use to guide inter‐division
coordination and collaboration, and evaluate City performance, and will include:
o A Long‐term energy management plan
o Energy efficiency standards
o Processes for retro‐commissioning and performance benchmarking to incentivize and
ensure high performance that matches design
15 Palo Alto currently requires LEED silver for new construction (as do many cities). San Francisco and Vancouver
require LEED goal.
City of Palo Alto: Sustainability and Climate Action Plan 2016 April 18, 2016 Page 43 of 63
o Long‐range capital improvement plan
o Budgetary goals
Goal: Efficient City Fleet
Strategy: Continue to electrify city fleet vehicles where possible
Develop protocols to systematically shift City fleet vehicles to electric where appropriate
Continue to explore third‐party providers of EV charging infrastructure, as a potential way to expand that
infrastructure at minimal cost to the City.
Strategy: Explore new models for City fleet vehicle operations
Explore partnership opportunities between City fleet and car‐sharing companies (e.g., performance
contracts, and/or and making fleet available for public rental after business hours)16
Consider piloting use of self‐driving vehicles as part of City vehicle fleet
Goal: Procurement—“Default to Green”
In 2007, the City authorized the implementation of a green purchasing program, and subsequently adopted a
Green Purchasing Policy (GPP) in 2008, which supports existing environmental policies and Council direction to
reduce GHG, pesticides and mercury, and achieve Zero Waste and pollution prevention goals. In 2015, the City
Manager established a “default to green” strategy that makes the greener product the norm rather than the
exception. Staff will always have the option to purchase alternative products, wherever cost or performance
requirements make the green product in appropriate, but by making the greener purchase easier, and supported
by tools that assist staff in choosing the best option, the City hopes to embed greener purchasing in to City
processes. (This has been accomplished for paper and toner purchases, and is underway for fleet purchases.)
[A 2014 OSS analysis showed that the Scope 3 GHG impacts of City purchases would add an estimated 25% to City
government emissions.]
Strategy: Continue to update and expand GPP awareness
Establish additional GPP criteria in all priority procurement categories
Work with vendors and allies to develop clear support material for City staff
Provide green procurement training and tools to City procurement staff
Strategy: Optimize allocation of funds to support GPP implementation
Allocate funds to develop or acquire “green purchasing” management and tracking software
Allocate funds and/or staff for at least 30%FTE to implement current green purchasing plan (from ASD,
CMO, or PWD) which includes annual reporting and tracking;
Allocate 25% FTE of ASD Purchasing Staff to assist with program implementation
Report progress at least annually.
Goal: Embed Sustainability in Management Systems and
Processes
Wherever possible, the City will embed sustainability criteria in City management systems, to ensure that the
concerns identified in this Plan are addressed early, as part of standard operating procedure rather than special
“sustainability add‐ons.”
16 As, for example, ZipCar has done with New York, Houston and other cities
City of Palo Alto: Sustainability and Climate Action Plan 2016 April 18, 2016 Page 44 of 63
Strategy: Infuse sustainability throughout City operations
Embed sustainability commitments and criteria into CIP process, and specification and management of
building construction, renovation and operation
Incorporate a “sustainability impacts” section into standard staff report templates.
Establish internal carbon targets, pricing and trading to increase GHG‐reduction17
Provide relevant sustainability training modules through the City’s training systems.
17 According to the World Bank, more than 150 companies, 40 countries and 20 cities have instituted carbon
pricing. http://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/pricing‐carbon
City of Palo Alto: Sustainability and Climate Action Plan 2016 April 18, 2016 Page 45 of 63
PALO ALTO’S UTILITY
OF THE FUTURE
The utility industry is changing. Rapidly dropping costs of
renewable and distributed power sources, energy storage,
electric vehicles and energy‐related telecommunications are
combining to challenge the traditional utility framework and
business. CPAU is tracking these trends, has begun piloting
residential “smart meters” in a few hundred locations and begun assessing the load and storage impacts of electric
vehicles on the grid. These trends intersect sustainability and climate action concerns, and raise both significant
challenges and opportunities for CPAU.
CPAU will explore and evaluate the “Utility of the Future” concept—including potentially moving from a
centralized utility provisioning model to a more agile one of greater embracing distributed energy generation and
storage, an increased focus on energy services in addition to energy generation and distribution.
Goal: Implement innovative efficiency strategies
As discussed above, efficiency comes first. CPAU has successfully delivered a suite of efficiency products and
services for years; new approaches to delivering efficiency may be need to both meet carbon goals and ensure
capacity to meet future needs.
Strategy: Continue to incorporate energy efficiency as the highest priority
resource
Procure energy efficiency as a resource (e.g. negawatts)—and a tradable commodity—to access funds
based on levelized marginal cost rather than total resource cost (TRC).
Promote—and monetize—radical resource efficiency
o Apply retro‐commissioning and performance benchmarking to incentivize and ensure high
performance that matches design
o Develop integrated utility service offerings (including electric vehicles, solar and energy
efficiency), with predictive analytics and on‐bill financing
City of Palo Alto: Sustainability and Climate Action Plan 2016 April 18, 2016 Page 46 of 63
Promote energy efficiency and conservation through both outreach and financial incentives and
repayment programs (education, outreach, on‐bill financing/repayment, incentives, etc.)
Strategy: Evaluate and advance appropriate electrification strategies
To the extent feasible, adopt electric and natural gas rates and tariffs that support fuel switching, and that
provide the right incentives for where we want to go now.
Maintain integrity of natural gas infrastructure as natural gas revenues decline.
Strategy: Evaluate and advance appropriate distributed generation strategies
Develop a long‐term plan for Integration of high levels of distributed resources into the system to
promote low carbon energy and reliable and cost effective delivery.
Address to potential challenge of “grid defection,” for example through rate policy (feed in tariffs), service
offerings (provide/manage/finance local generation and storage), etc.
Improve and maintain the resilience of the power grid, as well as natural gas, water, wastewater
distribution systems.
Goal: Advance smart grid strategies
Smart grid strategies connect to Palo Alto’s existing, smart city and open data strategies, and offer the promise of
more responsive and efficient energy systems, and more connected and satisfied customers.,
Strategy: Deploy Smart Grid as key part of “smart and connected city”
Implement real‐time metering for all customers to match costs with power pricing
o Conclude smart meter pilot and roll out smart meters city‐wide by 202X.
o Provide customers easy, real‐time access to their utility data through Green Button and other
APIs
Provide incentives for—or provision and manage—localized or neighborhood storage
Develop smart micro‐grid and nano‐grid strategies to integrate electric vehicles, energy storage,
renewable generation and islanding protection from blackouts.
Goal: Evaluate and adapt the CPAU business model
The utility industry faces a potentially disruptive future—driven by changing technology, economics and customer
expectations, as well as policy changes—that could include the challenge of “grid defection” as customers become
their own providers, and of new regulatory models and new competitors that shift revenues from utilities to other
participants in the energy system. Few utilities have begun to consider how to adapt to the creative destruction in
by the proliferation of distributed generation and energy efficiency; many are actively resisting the transition.
CPAU, small and locally controlled, has the capabilities to rapidly evolve the business models these trends are
demanding.
Strategy: Consider long‐term CPAU strategy in light of rapidly changing
technology
Carefully consider and decide what fundamental value CPAU will deliver to its customers:
o Buy, broker and distribute energy
o Sell benefits, not resources
o Deliver efficiency services
o Own and manage distributed generation & storage capacity
o Sell management, services, financing & data
City of Palo Alto: Sustainability and Climate Action Plan 2016 April 18, 2016 Page 47 of 63
Develop options to adapt business model to changing industry dynamics and proactively explore “utility of
the future” strategies to take advantage of potential disruptive change facing the industry.
Develop an agile, service‐focused (rather than commodity‐focused) business model, including
Develop long‐range plans to meet Palo Alto’s goals for sustainability, economic prosperity, and continued
quality of life in the face of changing market conditions and customer expectations
Evaluate the potential regulatory barriers and possible implications of electrification strategies, including
impacts of potential decline in natural gas use on CPAU revenues
Strategy: Leverage the resiliency and potential cost benefits of distributed
energy resources (e.g., solar, storage, microgrids )
Maximize local solar+storage as resilient complement to grid solar.
Explore microgrid and district energy strategies in key districts
Goal: Continue to advance carbon neutrality
CPAU will continue to play a central role in Palo Alto’s carbon neutrality trajectory.
Continue to support electrification programs and requirements identified in the S/CAP to effectively draw
down the use of natural gas, including:
o Restructure rates to not penalize increased electrical demand
o Prepare to upgrade grid to meet rising demand from electrification.
Develop hydroelectric power contingency plans
o Ensure maintenance of carbon neutral electricity in face of potential reduced reliability of
hydroelectric power
o Increase renewables power procurement to hedge hydro uncertainty, subject to the City’s Risk
Management Policies and Procedures
City of Palo Alto: Sustainability and Climate Action Plan 2016 April 18, 2016 Page 48 of 63
COMMUNITY
BEHAVIOR, CULTURE &
INNOVATION
Ultimately the way individuals and businesses act dictates our
consumption patterns and thus our impact on natural
resources. To truly address the challenges of climate change and sustainability, individual behavior will have to
continue to change. In fact the GHG impact of individual purchasing decisions—not reflected in Palo Alto’s GHG
inventory, above—is significant. (See Figure 14, below.) Achieving that change will require broad community
engagement, participation, guidance— and individual initiative. To support that, the City will active inform &
convene stakeholders, support individual & collaborative action, and disclose and report impacts of both City and
community‐wide initiatives and impacts.
[Graphic: stages of behavior change?]
Goal: Provide a platform for community change in culture,
behavior and innovation
Strategy: Changing Cultural Norms
Inform & convene stakeholders, support individual & collaborative action, and disclose and report impacts
of both City and community‐wide initiatives and impacts.
Develop awareness and understanding community‐wide to the relevance of actions to reduce energy
consumption, switch to cleaner sources of energy, embrace non‐auto based mobility options, and reduce
both water and solid waste.
Foster experimentation, alliances, design competitions, hackathons and big leaps led by our local
residents, businesses and community stakeholders.
Strategy: Facilitate personal and neighborhood action
Pilot “CoolBlock” collaborations to support neighborhood cooperation toward sustainability and resilience
goals
Pilot neighborhood competitions to reduce single‐occupancy vehicle travel, with opportunities for City of
Palo Alto to pilot street improvements to facilitate walking/biking/transit
Deploy/encourage performance dashboards and “fitbit for sustainability” apps
Estimate/report “scope 3” emissions, to seed conversations about consumption
City of Palo Alto: Sustainability and Climate Action Plan 2016 April 18, 2016 Page 49 of 63
Figure 15: Palo Alto Per Capita GHG emissions, including "Scope 3" Impact of Purchases
Strategy: Develop Smart City and Power of Open Data
Extend open data initiatives to include mobility, utility, operations & environmental quality
Provide visual performance dashboards that simplify tracking and benchmarking sustainability
performance—and support effective action
Provide real‐time reporting/dashboard information on key city arterials and corridors providing
information on real‐time mode share of driving, biking, pedestrian activity
Accelerate smart grid deployment.
Enable customer and 3rd party access to accurate, timely data.
In all these, ensure reliable protection of privacy.
City of Palo Alto: Sustainability and Climate Action Plan 2016 April 18, 2016 Page 50 of 63
CLIMATE ADAPTATION:
PREPARING FOR
CHANGE
The first imperative of climate change planning is mitigation,
the reduction in the emissions of greenhouse gases so that
the impacts can be kept as small as possible. However, even if all carbon emissions were stopped today, some of
these effects are likely to continue for decades into the future. Palo Alto’s greatest climate change risks are a
product of the City’s bayside setting, the inherent sensitivities of its Mediterranean climate, and its dependence on
imported water from the distant Sierra Nevada mountains as its primary water and hydro‐ electric supply.
Sea‐level rise is expected to affect low‐lying areas of Palo Alto surrounding the San Francisco Bay with more
frequent and severe flooding. The State of California has adopted guidance and planning sea level rise projections
for the San Francisco Bay region from the National Research Council (NRC, 201218) of projected 11 inches of sea
level rise by 2050 (with a range of 5 to 24 inches) and 36 inches by 2100 (with a range of 17 to 66 inches by 2100.19
18 National Research Council (NRC), 2012. Sea‐Level Rise for the Coasts of California, Oregon, and Washington: Past,
Present, and Future. http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=13389
19 California, via the Ocean Protection Council, (OPC, 201319), has adopted the San Francisco Bay region sea level
rise projections from the National Research Council (NRC, 201219), which includes an allowance for vertical land
motion.
City of Palo Alto: Sustainability and Climate Action Plan 2016 April 18, 2016 Page 51 of 63
Figure 16 and Figure 17 provide an overview (leveraging Silicon Valley 2.0, a regional planning effort to minimize
the anticipated impacts of climate change) of community assets identified at risk of sea level rise/flooding and fire
risk. (See detailed assessment of risks and potential responses in Appendix XX.) City staff have several related work
streams underway.
City of Palo Alto: Sustainability and Climate Action Plan 2016 April 18, 2016 Page 52 of 63
Figure 16. Palo Alto Community Assets at Risk from Sea Level Rise and Associated Flooding
City of Palo Alto: Sustainability and Climate Action Plan 2016 April 18, 2016 Page 53 of 63
Guiding Principles for Sea Level Rise Response
Recognizing the most immediate risks related to sea level, particularly for critical facilities along the San
Francisco Bay Shoreline, Palo Alto has identified six guiding principles1:
(1) For city of Palo Alto capital projects, use sea level rise assumptions consistent with the State of
California adopted guidance, with a minimum of 55 inches based on Bay Conservation Development
Corporation (BCDC) numbers.
(2) Continue to monitor latest climate change and sea level rise science and adapt as needed if sea level
rise occurs at a more rapid pace and/or higher levels than projected
(3) Ensure engineering solutions are adaptable to changing climate predictions
(4) Consider tools to protect, adapt and retreat as appropriate and cost‐effective
(5) For areas that are to be protected, consider additional tools in case severity and speed of sea level rise
increase, such as designing structure that can get wet and locating sensitive equipment higher in a
building
(6) Continue to collaborate with regional planning efforts on studies of climate impacts and strategies to
respond to sea level rise
Figure 17. Change in Fire Exposure Risk, Showing Community Asset Locations
City of Palo Alto: Sustainability and Climate Action Plan 2016 April 18, 2016 Page 54 of 63
Goal: Protect, Adapt, Retreat
Strategy: Protect Municipal Services Center, Utility Control Center and Utility
Control Center
Review long‐term plans to protect these assets, including potential relocation, or establish additional
redundant operational capabilities in case these facilities become incapacitated during a flooding event.
Assess foothills communication towers in the foothills for vulnerability to wildfire. Update emergency
preparedness plans accordingly.
Strategy: Enhance Energy Security and Infrastructure
Action: Develop an energy resiliency plan focusing on building in resiliency and lessening the impact of
statewide and regional energy events.
o Adaptation measures would include islanding, smart grid, local generation, energy storage and
redundant transmission lines.
Strategy: Water Supply
Action: Continue aggressive water conservation programs
Action: Set higher conservation goals in the 2015 update to the Palo Alto Urban Water Management Plan
Action: Participate in in regional planning efforts by the Bay Area Water Supply and Conservation Agency,
Santa Clara Valley Water District and San Francisco Public Utilities Commission.
Action: Investigate potential alternative supplies, including recycled water and use of local groundwater
sources.
Strategy: Wastewater Management
The greatest risk to the City’s wastewater management is potential failure of existing levees that protect the
RWQCP from coastal flooding associated with sea level rise by 2100.
Action: Evaluate feasibility of “horizontal levees,” and opportunities to incorporate treated wastewater
effluent in their creation.
Action: Develop a flood proofing plan for the RWQCP that minimizes impacts to the site in the event of
local inundation.
Strategy: Stormwater Management
Action: Coordinate creek flood management planning with the SAFER coastal flood management project
that is just getting underway.
Action: Assess opportunities to integrate stormwater into the wetlands rather than segregating it in
stormwater channels and detaining it in flood basins, in order to create a more resilient shoreline.
Strategy: Transportation Infrastructure
Highway 101 (Bayshore Freeway), the Palo Alto Airport, and surface streets in the Palo Alto floodplain are all at
significant risk from sea level rise by the year 2100. Current levees are not likely to adequately protect these assets
from sea level rise; the SAFER Bay project is planning improvements to these levees.
City of Palo Alto: Sustainability and Climate Action Plan 2016 April 18, 2016 Page 55 of 63
Action: Assess the vulnerability of Highway 101 (Bayshore Freeway), the Palo Alto Airport, and surface
streets in the Palo Alto floodplain to sea level rise by the year 2100.
Action: Better define adequacy of current levees to protect these assets from sea level rise, along with
consequences of failure and contingency plans in the event they become damaged or inaccessible.
Action: Assess the vulnerability of roads and highways in the foothills for wildfires by the year 2100.
Strategy: Public Health
The City’s most vulnerable populations (elderly, low‐income and health‐compromised residents) face significant
risk from extreme heat events by 2100, and higher risk of health problems from worsening air quality and new
disease vectors.
Action: Engage the public and promote community involvement in actions to reduce climate change risks,
using linguistically and culturally appropriate approaches that are effective for diverse populations.
Action: Reduce urban heat islands (also has energy conservation/GHG co‐benefit).
Action: Partner with organization like Cal‐BRACE (Building Resilience Against Climate Effects) to forecast
climate impacts and assess public health vulnerabilities, educate and engage more effectively with the
community, assess current strategies, and identify effective responses.
Action: Engage with and seek support from Association of Bay Area Government’s (ABAG) community
resilience programs; in particular their multiple hazard risk assessment and study of housing resilience in
the face of natural disasters.
Strategy: Continue to work with regional partners to implement integrated
resiliency approaches
Promote and participate in cooperative planning with other public agencies and regional and adjacent
jurisdictions, especially regarding issues related to climate change, such as water supply, sea level rise, fire
protection services, emergency medical services, and emergency response planning.
Develop new requirements for shoreline development to ensure that new development is designed and
located to provide protection from potential impacts of flooding resulting from sea level rise and
significant flood events.
o Requirements could include: new setbacks to ensure to structures are set back far enough inland
that they will not be endangered by erosion; limits on subdivisions and lot line adjustments in
areas vulnerable to sea level rise to avoid the creation of new shoreline lots; incentive or transfer
of development rights (TDR) programs to relocate existing development away from high risk
areas; and/or triggers for relocation or removal of existing structures based on changing site
conditions and other factors.
Strategy: Build resilience considerations into City planning and capital projects,
especially near the San Francisco Bay shoreline.
Prioritize the Municipal Service Center (MSC), which is located in a potential future inundation zone, to
determine the best approach to protect the emergency response capabilities and other services that the
MSC provides.
Pursue “green infrastructure” as required by the Regional Water Quality Control Board and as warranted
by staff analysis; include supporting policies in the Comp Plan Update aimed at increasing storm water
capture and infiltration.
Evaluate and strengthen SLR and flooding concerns in planning, zoning, permitting and insurance
requirements
City of Palo Alto: Sustainability and Climate Action Plan 2016 April 18, 2016 Page 56 of 63
REGENERATION AND
THE NATURAL
ENVIRONMENT
Sustainability is not only about mitigation and resiliency to
change, but also about regeneration and identifying
opportunities for renewal, restoration and growth of our natural resources and environment. Green infrastructure
management provides one of the rare opportunities to enhance ecosystem positives such as sequestration of
carbon, recharge of groundwater reserves, local food, walk‐ability and bike‐ability, and improved human health
rather than solely reduction of negative impacts such as pollution and waste.
Palo Alto will continue to build the natural resources, “common wealth” and biocapacity that sustains it: soils,
vegetation, tree canopy, biodiversity, water and many other critical components. Green infrastructure refers to
natural areas and systems to provide habitat, flood protection, storm water management, cleaner air and cleaner
water.
Goal: Renew, restoration and enhance resilience of our
natural environment
Strategy: Adapt canopy, parklands, biodiversity, soil health to changing climatic
regimes
Implement the Urban Forest Master Plan
o Analyze and estimate potential tree canopy impacts due to changes in water application
o Work closely with Utilities Department to evaluate current information, education programs
and incentives to determine the most appropriate best practices for both urban forestry and
water conservation goals.
o Continue to develop and distribute information about preferred and restricted tree species,
adapting trees to lower water needs, building greater drought resilience into tree planting sites
through soil enhancements and selecting native or site appropriate trees of the proper size and
characteristics.
o Further explore and emphasize the importance of local foods, including smaller, fruiting trees
and concepts related to local “food forests” that foster low‐maintenance sustainable plant‐
based food production.
Develop and implement the Parks, Trails, Open Space & Recreation Master Plan
o Provide clear guidance and recommendations on how to meet the demands for future
recreational, programming, environmental, and maintenance needs, as well as establish
priorities for future park renovations and facility improvements.
o Identify opportunities to increase sustainable and resource‐saving practices associated the
operation and management of parks and open space, as well as recreational facilities within
the City.
City of Palo Alto: Sustainability and Climate Action Plan 2016 April 18, 2016 Page 57 of 63
Strategy: Value and enhance the common wealth for future generations.
Action 1. Prepare an audit of the commonwealth and common health under that government’s
jurisdiction.
o This audit would provide an inventory of parks, water and air quality, and infrastructure
necessary for community wellbeing—all of the commons that are essential for the health and
well‐being of present and future generations. The audit could be reported as a qualitative, non‐
monetized set of assets.
Action 2. Draft a legacy plan for the commons.
o What is needed to improve, restore, and expand the commons to leave them in good shape for
future generations? Some threats are particularly important to consider in plans. It is difficult
to flourish in the face of floods, drought and fire. The legacy plan could become the basis of
governmental sustainability goals.
Action 3. Review all regulations and land use plans for their impact on future generations.
o Designate a “guardian of future generations” empowered to recommend modifications to
regulations and land uses that would protect future generations.
o Evaluate incorporation of “ecosystem functionality” layers into planning GIS to ensure no
diminution of ecosystem functionality by development processes
Strategy: Deploy Green Infrastructure.
Develop a green infrastructure policy
o Require consideration of green infrastructure strategies whenever street or open space
improvements may be made, including construction, landscaping and traffic calming projects.
o Coordinate strategies across departments to leverage benefits. For example, reduced
roadway and parking demand resulting from SOV‐reducing transportation strategies would
enable more permeable surfaces and water capture; Include such economic benefits in
analysis of those transportation projects.
Map city water flows and soil types to evaluate which types of green infrastructure investments and
locations could provide greatest benefits
Incent Green Roof Installation. Address through building policy or utility incentive the promotion of green
roofs.
Establish City policy on Green Streets and Green Parking Design.
o Include Green Streets, alleys and curb cuts in street work, parking strips, planter areas of
sidewalks, curb extensions, and street medians.
o Establish City design policies to include green parking infrastructure in all new parking
facilities
o Incorporate additional green infrastructure elements into parking lot designs including
permeable pavements installed in sections of a lot and rain gardens and bioswales included
in medians and along a parking lot perimeter.
City of Palo Alto: Sustainability and Climate Action Plan 2016 April 18, 2016 Page 58 of 63
FINANCING, FUNDING
AND INVESTMENTS
The total financial impact of the goals and strategies identified
in this plan is estimated to result in a net present value of
$400 million generated by estimated City investments of $10
million combined with investments across the Palo Alto
economy of approximately $760 million over the next 14
years. (These are best estimates in the face of rapidly evolving technologies and rapidly improving
price/performance ratios in energy, mobility and other sectors; they should be revised regularly.)
This return on investment may seem surprising that reducing GHG emissions are estimated to provide a net
positive economic benefit, since most people have long thought that environmental quality costs money. But
efficiency has long delivered good return on investment, and renewable energy is becoming increasingly
competitive compared to fossil fuels. This makes carbon neutrality a good investment seen in the light of
alternative costs if Palo Alto were to continue to source its energy from fossil fuels. Additionally, the levers and
strategies identified in this plan also contribute to improving the health and quality of life for Palo Alto residents
and businesses by reducing congestion, noise and local pollution.
Financing these pathways
Staff has identified a variety of potential sources of funds to finance the S/CAP; all of these sources (including
private financial vehicles) need a more complete assessment of applicable legal and regulatory requirements and
the risks and obligations associated with the various approaches.20 These include operating savings, parking
feebates, utility rates, revolving loan funds, local offsets, carbon tax or fee, voluntary contributions, green bonds,
transfer taxes, public/private partnerships and private financial vehicles.21 There is evidence that market demand
exceeds supply for well‐constructed sustainability and climate related investment opportunities; as a result some
initiatives discussed here may be financeable through private investors.
Capital formation
People—and companies—sometimes resist environmental improvements for fear they are too expensive, or say
we’ll do as much as we can afford. But as the late Ray Anderson, founder and CEO of Interface, would say, “If you
think sustainability is expensive, you’re doing it wrong.”
Analysis shows that sustainability can be a good investment. But it is an investment—and like any other can be
structured in many ways
Many funding options are available and new forms are continually emerging. In most cases, innovation comes from
combining instruments in creative ways to achieve specific goals rather than creating entirely new mechanisms.
20 The City of Palo Alto has just been award an $85k grant from USDN for a multi‐city exploration of potential
sustainability financing strategies
21 This despite a common misperception: Most people who have not been deeply engaged in sustainability work
assume that low‐carbon and other sustainability initiatives will necessarily require financial, performance or
quality of life sacrifices, because “better usually costs more.” As we’ve seen in the world’s product innovation,
green building, and corporate eco‐efficiency, this is not necessarily the case; in fact a growing body of evidence
documents that attractive returns on investment are possible from well‐designed and well‐executed sustainability
initiatives.
City of Palo Alto: Sustainability and Climate Action Plan 2016 April 18, 2016 Page 59 of 63
The “best” choice of funding vehicle for a particular entity is one that compliments the current political and
cultural context of a region by allocating costs and benefits equitably. Figure 18 summarizes key financing options
and their estimated scale.
Figure 19: Potential Financing Sources and Amounts
STRATEGIES DESCRIPTION POTENTIAL FUNDS COMMENTS
Utility Costs
Operating Savings
Allocate 50% of cost savings from
retrofit of City buildings
$0.6m/yr Current spend ~$6m/year;
estimated 10% savings
Parking Feebates Phase out free parking; apply revenues
to commute alternatives as MaaS*
$10‐20m/yr (Modeled on the Stanford
engine)
Utility Reserve Apply 10% of Utility Reserve to finance
low‐carbon initiatives
$5m/yr
Revolving Loan Fund Establish bond‐funded low‐interest
revolving loan fund for on‐bill financing
of efficiency projects
TBD
Green Bonds Issue green bonds to finance green
infrastructure and low carbon initiatives
TBD Beneficial interest rates since
demand exceeds supply
Local Offsets Switch GreenGas to opt‐out; use
portion of funds to finance qualified
local projects (5% first year)
$1.6m/year
Carbon Tax Explore and pilot local carbon tax or fee $5‐15m/yr See Boulder, for example.
Would likely require ballot
measure.
Total $22.2‐32.2m/yr
Goal: Utilize diverse financial pathways to drive S/CAP
implementation
Evaluate the economic and legal feasibility of the financing measures identified in Figures ___
Utilize the general fund to incentivize investments to promote appliance switching, which may not be
possible for the Enterprise funds to finance due to legal restrictions.
Establish internal carbon pricing for all City departments and financial activities.
To the extent feasible, include carbon pricing into the gas rates to fund efficiencies and fuel switching.
Identify a neighborhood or commercial district as a special district to carry out innovative pilot projects
around GHG reduction, electric transportation development, or other approaches.
City of Palo Alto: Sustainability and Climate Action Plan 2016 April 18, 2016 Page 60 of 63
IMPLEMENTATION: TURNING VISION INTO
ACTION
Achieving the emissions reductions detailed in this plan requires that the strategies and actions are implemented
in a timely, coordinated a sustained way. Partial or poorly coordinated implementation will reduce the emissions
reduction potential of the S/CAP.
Monitoring and Tracking Progress
The Office of Sustainability will be responsible for monitoring and reporting on the progress of the S/CAP on the
following schedule:
Community greenhouse gas inventory: Annually.
S/CAP Strategy Indicators: Annually
Below, we summarize the key performance indicators associated with each Strategy:
Table 1. Summary of S/CAP Strategy Indicators for Monitoring Progress
Levers Goals Strategy 2030 Performance Target 2030 GHG
Emissions
Reduction
(MTCO2e)
Re
t
h
i
n
k
i
n
g
Mo
b
i
l
i
t
y
Expand non‐
auto mobility
options
T‐FAC‐1. Expand bicycle
infrastructure
Increase bike boulevard miles to 26
miles
Increase in bike mode share to 30%
8,400
T‐FAC‐2. Expand transit options Increase transit ridership by 60%
19,200
T‐FAC‐3. Grow ridesharing
services Increase in rideshare mode
6,400
Create right
financial
incentives
T‐INC‐1. Provide universal
transit passes
75% of residents and employees have
universal transit passes
7,600
T‐INC‐2. Implement parking
pricing 50% of sites have parking pricing
18,400
Implement
land use
approaches
T‐LU‐1. Increase zero‐impact
housing Target 3.1 jobs‐housing ratio
2,900
Reduce carbon
intensity of
vehicles
T‐EV‐1. Electrify Palo Alto‐based
vehicles
90% of vehicles based in Palo Alto are
zero emission
25,200
T‐EV‐2. Electrify inbound
vehicles
50% of inbound (not based in Palo
Alto) vehicles are zero emission
29,800
El
e
c
t
r
i
f
y
i
n
g
ou
r
Ci
t
y
Reduce use in
existing
businesses
NG‐COMM‐1. Electrify water
heating in businesses
85% of commercial water heating is
electric
21,200
NG‐COMM‐2. Electrify space
heating in businesses
85% of commercial space heating is
electric
15,900
NG‐COOK‐1. Electrify
commercial cooking 50% of commercial cooking is electric
11,300
Reduce use in NG‐RES‐1. Electrify residential Close to 100% of water heaters are
City of Palo Alto: Sustainability and Climate Action Plan 2016 April 18, 2016 Page 61 of 63
existing homes water heating electric 13,600
NG‐RES‐2. Electrify residential
space heating
70% of residential space heating is
electric
23,300
Reduce use in
new buildings
NG‐GAS‐1. Encourage all‐
electric new buildings
New buildings are zero net energy
ahead of state targets
11,900
Ze
r
o
Wa
s
t
e
Enhance
programs and
infrastructure
SW‐1. Achieve zero waste
Achieve 95% diversion rate
9,500
City of Palo Alto: Sustainability and Climate Action Plan 2016 April 18, 2016 Page 62 of 63
CONCLUSION
Climate change is a global problem and only through local solutions designed to meet the needs of our community
can we mitigate and adapt to its impacts and protect the environment. While the challenge of climate change is
unprecedented, local‐level solutions can reduce emissions, increase efficiency, promote economic development,
and improve quality of life for residents.
Together, we can continue to foster a vibrant economy, increase our resiliency and support Palo Alto’s vision for a
livable and sustainable community for generations to come. The City of Palo Alto has taken a significant step
toward a more sustainable future with this climate action plan. This Plan has identified areas and opportunities to
reduce GHG emissions within the community and City operations that along with statewide efforts can achieve our
environmental goals.
While an important first step, this plan will remain a living document, to be updated as technology and policies
progress, to support the City’s efforts to manage GHG emissions for a sustainable future for all.
City of Palo Alto: Sustainability and Climate Action Plan 2016 April 18, 2016 Page 63 of 63
GLOSSARY
BAU: Business as Usual. Measures, initiatives or impacts that do not depend on new City of Palo Alto action
BAU 1: BAU resulting from demographic projections, external (State and Federal) policy choices. Based on
CompPlan analysis, modified by S/CAP consultants to distinguish certain elements. (See BAU2)
BAU 2: BAU resulting from existing (enacted and/or in progress)
Palo Alto: The entire Palo Alto community, including COPA, residents and businesses
CPAU: City of Palo Alto Utilities
COPA or The City: City of Palo Alto municipal government, including City of Palo Alto Utilities
GHG: Greenhouse gas emissions
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 1 of 124
Palo Alto
Sustainability and Climate
Action Plan
Appendices: A Roadmap to 80 x 30
Draft – April 2016
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 2 of 124
Contents
APPENDIX
A
–
Palo
Alto
Greenhouse
Gas
Emissions
Inventory
...................................................................
4
APPENDIX
B
–
S/CAP
Process
.......................................................................................................................
6
APPENDIX
C
–
S/CAP
Strategy
Calculation
and
Assumptions
.......................................................................
7
APPENDIX
D
–
Analysis
of
Three
Possible
Emissions
Scenarios
.................................................................
11
2050
Executive
Order:
80%
reduction
by
2050
(80x50)
....................................................................
12
2030
Challenge:
80%
reduction
by
2030
(80x30)
..............................................................................
17
California
Moonshot:
100%
carbon
neutral
by
2025
(100x25)
..........................................................
23
APPENDIX
E
–
S/CAP
Wedge
Chart
Details
................................................................................................
29
Transportation
Levers,
Strategies
and
Actions
......................................................................................
29
Natural
Gas
Levers,
Strategies
and
Actions
...........................................................................................
31
APPENDIX
F
–
Climate
Adaptation
and
Vulnerability
Analysis
...................................................................
34
Method
..................................................................................................................................................
38
Summary
of
Current
Relevant
Planning
Initiatives
................................................................................
42
City
of
Palo
Alto
Comprehensive
Plan
................................................................................................
42
Existing
Natural
Environment
Element
..............................................................................................
42
Updated
Natural
and
Urban
Environment
and
Safety
Element
.........................................................
43
Utilities
and
Service
Systems
.............................................................................................................
44
Water
Supply
.....................................................................................................................................
44
Wastewater
.......................................................................................................................................
45
Stormwater
........................................................................................................................................
45
City
Utility
Energy
Planning
................................................................................................................
47
Local
Hazard
Mitigation
Plan
(LHMP)
................................................................................................
48
Community
Services
Department
......................................................................................................
49
Development
Services
Department
...................................................................................................
49
Planning
and
Community
Environment
Department
........................................................................
49
Public
Safety
Departments
................................................................................................................
50
Public
Works
Department
..................................................................................................................
51
Utilities
Department
..........................................................................................................................
51
Information
Technology
(IT)
Department
..........................................................................................
51
City
of
Palo
Alto
2010
Urban
Water
Management
Plan
(UWMP)
.....................................................
51
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 3 of 124
Strategy
to
Advance
Flood
Protection,
Ecosystems,
and
Recreation
Along
the
Bay
(SAFER
Bay)
.....
60
Bay
Area
Integrated
Regional
Water
Management
Plan
(IRWMP)
....................................................
60
Adaptation
Strategies
Identified
In
Bay
Area
IRWMP
........................................................................
61
Silicon
Valley
2.0
................................................................................................................................
64
Climate
Change
Exposures
.....................................................................................................................
73
Vulnerability
...........................................................................................................................................
83
Assessing
Risk
and
Prioritizing
Adaptation
Responses
........................................................................
110
Establishing
a
Shoreline
Vision
............................................................................................................
117
APPENDIX
G
–
Additional
Technical
Analysis
...........................................................................................
119
Transportation
emissions
attributable
to
Palo
Alto
residents
.............................................................
119
Water
Heating
in
Businesses
...............................................................................................................
119
Space
Heating
in
Businesses
................................................................................................................
121
Space
Heating
in
Homes
......................................................................................................................
122
All-‐electric
Zero
Net
Energy
Buildings
..................................................................................................
123
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 4 of 124
APPENDIX
A:
Palo
Alto
Greenhouse
Gas
Emissions
Inventory
Palo
Alto
Community
&
City
Municipal
Operations
GHG
Emissions:
Reduction
of
36%
since
1990
City
Municipal
Operations*
&
Palo
Alto
Community
GHG
Emissions
Summary
Excludes
Biogenic
Emissions**;
All
units
in
Metric
Tons
(MT)
of
CO2
equivalent
2005
2012
2013
2014
2015
Consumption
Quantity
Emissions
(MT
of
CO2e)
Consumption
Quantity
Emissions
(MT
of
CO2e)
Consumption
Quantity
Emissions
(MT
of
CO2e)
Consumption
Quantity
Emissions
(MT
of
CO2e)
Consumption
Quantity
Emissions
(MT
of
CO2e)
Notes
Scope
1
Emissions
Natural
Gas
Use
(Therms)
31,374,970
166,350
30,086,536
159,519
30,336,076
160,842
26,103,713
138,402
25,491,698
135,153
1
Natural
Gas
Distribution
Leakage
4,718
4,718
4,718
4,781
4,781
2
Palo
Alto
Landfill
Fugitive
Emissions
6,811
4,336
6,640
8,470
8,617
3
Palo
Alto
Landfill
Gas
Flaring
(biogenic)
5,853
3,827
5,941
3
Wastewater
Process
Emissions
8,504
6,414
5,024
4,616
4,080
4
Scope
2
Emissions
-‐-‐
Actual
Total
Electric
Load
(MWh)
996,091
966,839
986,241
978,561
965,857
Hydro
Supply
(MWh)
548,760
413,584
406,570
266,026
251,466
Renewables
Supply
(MWh)
49,980
188,566
188,086
172,139
227,110
Brown
Power
Supply
(MWh)
397,352
158,427
364,689
145,404
391,585
0
540,370
0
487,280
0
5a
Palo
Alto
Green
Purchases
(MWh)
30,601
(12,201)
75,805
(30,224)
N/A
N/A
N/A
6
Scope
2
Emissions
-‐-‐
Weather
Adjusted***
Total
Electric
Load
996,091
966,839
986,241
978,561
965,857
Hydro
Supply
(MWh)
514,073
514,073
514,073
514,073
514,073
Renewables
Supply
(MWh)
49,980
188,566
188,086
172,139
227,110
Brown
Power
Supply
(MWh)
432,038
172,257
264,200
105,339
284,082
113,266
292,324
116,552
224,673
89,579
5b
Palo
Alto
Green
Purchases
(MWh)
30,601
(12,201)
75,805
(30,224)
0
0
0
0
0
0
6
Scope
3
Emissions
Commute
into,
from,
and
within
City
371,870
319,720
319,720
329,296
329,296
7
Lifecycle
Emissions
From
Annual
Total
Waste
Placed
in
Landfills
22,265
7,953
14,082
5,030
14,549
5,197
15,087
5,389
14,012
5,005
8
Landfilling
Recyclable
Material
22,779
14,406
14,886
15,435
14,335
8
Total
Emissions
(weather
adjusted,
biogenic
excluded)
752,130
591,373
515,497
507,346
501,267
Emission
Reduction
(since
2005)
21%
Emission
Reduction
(since
2005)
31%
Emission
Reduction
(since
2005)
33%
Emission
Reduction
(since
2005)
33%
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 5 of 124
Emission
Reduction
(since
1990)
24%
Emission
Reduction
(since
1990)
34%
Emission
Reduction
(since
1990)
35%
Emission
Reduction
(since
1990)
36%
Notes
1
Total
Community
supply
of
natural
gas
use/delivery.
2
Leakage
from
the
natural
gas
distribution
system-‐
modeled
result,
unchanged
over
the
period.
3
Calculated
using
total
captured
landfill
gas,
actual
methane
percentage;
fugitive
gas
assumed
to
be
33%
of
captured
rate.
2005
estimate
has
been
revised
to
reflect
current
methodologies.
4
Represents
N2O
emissions
from
biological
treatment
process
and
release
of
Nitrogen.
5
a.
Represents
actual
quantity
of
brown
power
related
emission
@879
lbs/MWh
in
2005
and
2012;
not
applicable
beyond
2012
due
to
Carbon
Neutral
electric
supply.
b.
Weather
normalized
(for
hydroelectric
generation)
quantity
of
brown
power.
No
GHG
impact
in
2015.
6
Emissions
saved
due
to
purchase
of
PaloAltoGreen
related
RECs.
PAG
related
RECs
not
included
in
2015
due
to
Carbon
Neutral
electric
supply.
7
Study
results
from
Fehr
and
Peer
(03/19/2013)
using
Valley
Transportation
Authority
regional
transportation
model
based
Vehicular
Miles
Travelled
(VMT)
and
vehicular
profiles
-‐
does
not
account
for
Palo
Alto
specific
parameters
related
to
greater
penetration
of
alternate
fuel
vehicles,
bicycle
use,
etc.
Study
results
under
review.
2015
assumed
to
be
same
as
2012.
8
Based
on
characteristics
and
tons
of
material
landfilled:
2005,
2011,
2012
and
2013
figures;
Landfilled
amount
in
2014
up
4%
compared
to
2012.
*
Municipal
emissions
related
to
electricity
and
natural
gas
consumption
included
within
utility
load
numbers;
fleet
vehicle
emissions
also
assumed
to
be
included
in
community
wide
commute
related
emissions
estimates
made
by
consultant.
**
Table
excludes
biogenic
emissions
related
to:
Landfill
gas
flaring
and
WQCP
sludge
incineration.
***
Normalized
to
account
for
the
vagaries
of
weather
on
hydroelectric
supplies.
No
GHG
impact
in
2013.
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 6 of 124
APPENDIX
B
–
S/CAP
Process
The
S/CAP
process
investigated
three
scenarios
(with
different
goals:
80x50,
80x30,
100x25)
in
considerable
detail.
For
each,
the
S/CAP
team
asked:
"what
combination
of
strategies
and
measures
might
make
it
possible
to
meet
that
specific
goal?"
The
list
of
potential
measures
was
fairly
clear;
their
feasibility,
and
pace
of
introduction,
was
not.
So
the
team
then
filtered
for
technical
feasibility;
cost
effectiveness
(over
time,
since
costs
for
many
relevant
technologies
has
been
dropping
rapidly);
mitigation
cost
(which
may
make
some
measures
attractive
even
if
not
strictly
speaking
cost
effective,
and
worth
exploring
through
alternative
financing
strategies).
The
team
considered
likely
timing,
and
the
entry
points
afforded
by
technology
life
cycles.
For
existing
buildings,
the
team
considered
leverage
points
for
change:
pulling
a
permit,
appliance
failure
(actual
or
predicted),
time
of
sale.
The
team
assumed
starting
with
voluntary
programs
(like
CPAU's
Heat
Pump
Water
Heater
pilot),
and
potentially
adding
mandatory
programs
(such
as
the
proposed
Energy
Reach
Code
proposed
by
Development
Services)
as
the
team
understands
better
what’s
possible
and
what’s
needed.
And
the
team
applied
informed
and
wherever
possible
documented
assumptions
about
costs,
availability,
rate
of
adoption,
etc.
(Where
documented
data
was
not
available—for
example
with
new
initiatives
like
Mobility
as
a
Service—the
assumptions
are
intentionally
conservative,
and
probably
underestimate
GHG
reduction
potential.)
The
S/CAP
team
benefited
from
expert
opinion
from
Rocky
Mountain
Institute,
as
well
as
experts
from
Stanford
University,
Goldman
Sachs,
Carbon
Free
Palo
Alto,
the
Urban
Sustainability
Directors
Network,
and
other
advisors.
Community
engagement
included:
a
design
charrette
(40
people),
an
ideas
expo
(80
people),
two
polling
cycles
(~500
people),
a
community
climate
summit
(300
people),
several
study
sessions
with
Council,
UAC
and
CAC,
regular
meetings
with
staff
through
the
Sustainability
Board
and
several
staff
retreats,
the
S/CAP
Advisory
Board
(27
people),
community
meetings,
newsletters
(2500
people),
social
media
(600
people)
and
individual
conversations.
Staff
will
continue
to
seek
community
input
as
the
Draft
S/CAP
provides
specific
proposals
and
analysis
for
consideration
by
the
City
Council
and
the
community.
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 7 of 124
APPENDIX
C
–
S/CAP
Strategy
Calculation
and
Assumptions
In this section, we describe the key assumptions associated with each S/CAP strategy to estimate
GHG reduction potential for the 80% below 1990 levels by 2030 target.
T-FAC-1
o Percent of proposed bicycle lanes added annually from 2016 to 2030: 6.67%
(DNV GL)
o Trips per Capital Bikeshare station per month: 1,000 trips/month
(https://www.capitalbikeshare.com/)
o Estimated percent of Palo Alto land area suitable for bikesharing: 40% (DNV
GL)
o Total bikesharing stations in Palo Alto by 2030 at 28 stations/square mile
density: 266 stations in Palo Alto (https://www.capitalbikeshare.com/)
o BAU annual bicycle trips to/from/within Palo Alto: 25,099 trips (Palo Alto
Bicycle and Pedestrian Plan projection for 2035. 2035 projection used for 2030,
assuming early implementation of planned facilities and services.)
o Percent increase in daily bike trips compared to 2030 BAU resulting from
establishment of enhanced bicycle facilities: 100% increase (DNV GL)
o Each 1% shift of driving trips to bicycle trips reduces VMT by 0.5% (Carbon
Neutral Scenario Analysis + Pudget Sound Regional Council 2006 Household
Activity Survey Analysis Report)
o Total miles of additional bicycle lanes built by 2030 under proposed “40% of
full implementation scenario”: 21 miles (DNV GL)
o Percentage of additional arterial bicycle lanes that will require arterial
motorized vehicle lane reduction: 50% (DNV GL)
o Percent of average daily motor vehicle traffic eliminated by lane reduction:
22% (http://contextsensitivesolutions.org/content/reading/disappearing-
traffic/resources/disappearing-traffic/)
T-FAC-2
o Annual percentage increase in all public transportation ridership: 6.67% (DNV
GL)
o Total percent increase in VTA El Camino BRT, SamTrans, and Palo Alto Shuttle
average weekday ridership from 2014 to 2030: 60% ridership increase (DNV
GL)
o California High Speed Rail Palo Alto boardings per day by 2030: 7,800
boardings (http://www.paloaltoonline.com/news/2010/09/21/stanford-resists-
local-high-speed-rail-station)
o Express bus service in dedicated bus lanes with 90 second headways on US
101 throughout the peak hour by 2030 (DNV GL)
T-FAC-3
o Informal/casual carpooling programs started in the US 1010 corridor
¥ Ridership to/from Palo Alto is proportionate to Pal Alto’s share of all
boardings/alightings in Caltrain Corridor – 14.4%. (Caltrain)
¥ Web/assisted/dynamic ridematching options allowing shared travel to
multiple destinations – opposed to “many to one” model of casual
carpooling in East Bay/SF market (DNV GL)
¥ Would facilitate shared travel to major employment site through the 101
corridor: San Francisco, San Jose + site in between (DNV GL)
¥ Analysis assumes that the travel market for the full 101 corridor would be
approximately twice the volume of shared rides in the East Bay/SF market
during both AM + PM peak periods. This is due to the bi-directional nature
of travel in the region opposed to primarily in-bound trips in East Bay/SF
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 8 of 124
market (DNV GL)
o Estimated volume of casual carpoolers/dynamic ridesharers in 101-corridor by
2030: (Berolo (1990)[est. 8,000], and Litman (2004) [est. 10,000])
¥ Northbound AM: 9,000
¥ Soutbound AM: 9,000
¥ Northbound PM: 9,000
¥ Southbound PM: 9,000
o Percent of 101-corridor daily carpool/rideshare trips to/from Palo Alto beyond
BAU by 2030: 19.4% This assumption is based on Palo Alto’s share of Caltrain
boardings/alightings -14.4% - plus a adjustment factor – plus 5% - to
account for the above average participation rate at Stanford University.
(Caltrain + DNV GL)
T-INC-1 o Annual percent ramp-up of program from 2016 to 2030 (reaching 100%
deployment of program in 2030): 7% annual increase (DNV GL)
o Percent of Palo Alto resident work trips via public transportation in 2014: 5.0%
(2014 Dev. CAP)
¥ Percent change in transit ridership for resident work trips from 2014 to
2030 above BAU increase: 82.9% (Santa Clara VTA, Bellevue, WA,
Boulder, CO, Ann Arbor, MI)
o Percent of Palo Alto resident non-work trips via public transportation in 2030
BAU: 4.1% (Valley Transportation Plan 2035, Santa Clara VTA).
¥ Percent change in transit ridership for resident non-work trips with Eco-
Pass implementation: 79.0% (Caltrans: “Parking and TOD: Challenges and
Opportunities," 2002)
o Housing units in Palo Alto in 2010: 28,546 households (Comp Plan EIR)
¥ Percentage of housing units in multi-unit buildings in 2010: 38.5% (US
Census 2010)
o Housing units in Palo Alto by 2030: 32,964 (Placeworks, Scenario 4)
¥ Percentage of units in multi-unit buildings in 2030: 42.5% (DNV GL)
T-INC-2
o Annual ramp up of program from 2016 to 2030 (reaching 50% of full
implementation by 2030): 3.3% (DNV GL)
o Percent of total floor space – both commercial and residential – affected by off-
street parking reforms by 2030 under 100% implementation scenario: 32%
(Nelson, A. 2006, JAPA)
o Percent reduction in residential vehicle VMT (non-work and non-
commercial/heavy truck travel) at sites affected by off-street parking reforms:
20% (DNV GL)
o Percent reduction in work-related auto trip to Palo Alto from adoption of
employee parking pricing under 100% implementation scenario: 27.4% (Mid
Wilshire/LA, Warner, Century City, Civic Center, Ottawa).
¥ Projected BAU drive-alone mode share for work trips in 2030: 73.9% (VTA
VTP 2035)
T-EV-1
o Annual percent increase in electric vehicles owned by Palo Alto residents
beyond the BAU increase in electric vehicle ownership from 2016 to 2030: 6%
(DNV GL)
o Percent of total vehicles owned by Palo Alto residents that are electric vehicles
by 2030 under BAU scenario: 25.5% (CPAU + Committee on Transitions to
Alternative Vehicles and Fuels “Transitions to Alternative Vehicles and Fuels”,
2013)
o Percent of total vehicles owned by Palo Alto residents that are electric vehicles
by 2030 under policy scenario: 92.5% (DNV GL)
o Annual percent increase in non-electric vehicle MPG and electric vehicle MPG-
equivalent from 2016 to 2030 (http://www.epa.gov/otaq/fetrends.htm).
o Percent increase in BAU VMT of Palo Alto residents from 2016 to 2030: 11%
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 9 of 124
(DNV GL)
T-EV-2
o Annual percent increase in electric in share of vehicles not owned by Palo Alto
residents (responsible for external-internal VMT) that are electric vehicles by
2030: 4% (DNV GL)
o Percent of vehicles not owned by Palo Alto residents (responsible for external-
internal VMT) that are electric vehicles by 2030: 60% (DNV GL)
T-LU-1 o Assume jobs/employed resident ratio of 2.95, resulting in increase of 5,600
housing units by 2030, compared with CompPlan 2030 BAU estimates of an
increase of 2,719 housing units by 2030.
o Assume 30% average reduction in VMT per capita associated with compact
development relative to sprawl-type development (Ewing, p.33)
o Assume additional housing units to be “compact development” in mixed-use
development or “infill” backyard cottages within existing urban street grid of
Palo Alto
NG-RES-1
o Life of typical gas water heater: 13 years (CPAU)
o Percent reduction in residential water heating demand from EE measures: 10%
(DNV GL)
o One residential water heater per home in Palo Alto (estimate)
o 5% of residential water heaters replaced each year from 2016à2030
NG-RES-2
o Life of typical gas furnace: 20 years (CPAU)
o One gas furnace per home in Palo Alto (DNV GL)
o Percent reduction in space heating demand from EE measures: 10% (DNV GL)
o Life of air source heat pump: 20 years (CPAU)
o 4% of furnaces replaced each year from 2016à2030
NG-COMM-1
o Overall Palo Alto Commercial Assumptions:
¥ Total commercial square footage in Palo Alto: 28,300,000 square feet (Palo
Alto Comprehensive Plan -
http://www.cityofpaloalto.org/civicax/filebank/documents/8170 + Loopnet)
¥ Life of typical gas water heater: 13 years (CPAU)
¥ 3% of commercial gas water heaters replaced each year from 2016à2030
¥ Percent reduction in commercial water heating demand from EE measures:
10% (DNV GL)
o Palo Alto “Small Commercial” Assumptions:
¥ Total square footage of “Small Commercial” requiring residential-style heat
pump hot water in Palo Alto: 26,602,000 square feet (Palo Alto
Comprehensive Plan -
http://www.cityofpaloalto.org/civicax/filebank/documents/8170 + Loopnet)
¥ One heat pump hot water heater per small office or restaurant
¥ Life of heat pump electric water heater: 13 years (CPAU)
o Palo Alto Large Commercial Assumptions
¥ Total square footage of “Large Commercial” requiring solar thermal with
60% solar fraction coupled with electric resistance heating hot water in
Palo Alto: 1,698,000 square feet (Palo Alto Comprehensive Plan -
http://www.cityofpaloalto.org/civicax/filebank/documents/8170
+
Loopnet)
¥ Solar fraction for domestic hot water energy use: 60% (DNV GL)
o Life of solar-electric heat pump hot water system: 15 years (DNV GL)
NG-COMM-2
o Overall Palo Alto Commercial Assumptions
¥ Percent reduction in commercial space heating demand from EE measures:
10% (DNV GL)
¥ Total commercial square footage in Palo Alto: 28,300,000 square feet (Palo
Alto Comprehensive Plan -
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 10 of 124
http://www.cityofpaloalto.org/civicax/filebank/documents/8170 + Loopnet)
o Palo Alto Small Commercial Assumptions
¥ Life of typical gas-pack furnace: 10 years (CPAU)
¥ Total square footage of “Small Commercial” requiring in-kind replacement
of gas-fired package units with heat pump packaged units for space
heating in Palo Alto: 26,602,000 square feet (Palo Alto Comprehensive
Plan - http://www.cityofpaloalto.org/civicax/filebank/documents/8170
+
Loopnet)
¥ Life of heat pump space heater: 10 years (CPAU)
o Palo Alto Large Commercial Assumptions
¥ Life of standard furnace boiler: 15 years (CPAU)
¥ Total square footage of “Large Commercial” requiring replacement of
chiller and boiler with heat recovery chiller feeding heating hot water loop
for space hating: 4,245,000 square feet (Palo Alto Comprehensive Plan -
http://www.cityofpaloalto.org/civicax/filebank/documents/8170 + Loopnet)
¥ Typical life of heat recovery chiller: 15 years (DNV GL)
NG-COOK-1
o 3% of eligible restaurant kitchens converted from gas to electricity per year
from 2016à2030
o Total restaurants with fume hood in Palo Alto: 169 (Melissa Data, ZipMap,
Yelp)
o Percent of restaurants in Palo Alto with fume hood using natural gas for
cooking: 50% (DNV GL)
o Median square footage of restaurants in Palo Alto: 3,500 square feet
(http://www.restaurantowner.com/public/1317.cfm)
o Typical life of gas and electric kitchen equipment: 12 years
(http://www.fishnick.com/saveenergy/tools/calculators)
NG-GAS-1
o 3% annual increase in BAU efficiency of new commercial and residential
construction due to building codes (DNV GL)
o New commercial square footage per year from 2016à2030: 327,848 square
feet/year (Placeworks Scenario 4)
o New residential housing units per year from 2016à2030: 316 housing units
(Placeworks Scenario 4)
o 2014 Housing units in Palo Alto: 28,546 housing units (Placeworks Scenario
Analysis)
SW-1
o Community-wide waste diversion rate in 2014: 78% (Palo Alto Earth Day
Report)
¥ BAU waste diversion rate remains at 78% from 2014-2013
o Waste diversion rate by 2030: 92% (DNV GL)
¥ Annual percent increase in waste diversion rate: 0.93% (DNV GL)
o Annual increase in community-wide total generated waste (including landfill,
recycling, compost): 1.46% (projections based on historic data from Palo Alto
Earth Day Report)
o Waste emissions factors:
¥ Life cycle emissions per ton of waste placed in landfills: 0.36 MT CO2e/Ton
(Palo Alto Earth Day Report)
¥ Emissions resulting from recyclable materials per ton of waste placed in
landfills: 0.79 MT CO2e/Ton (Palo Alto Earth Day Report).
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 11 of 124
APPENDIX
D
–
Analysis
of
Three
Possible
Emissions
Scenarios
When
it
comes
to
issues
as
complex
and
uncertain
as
climate
change,
scenario
development
is
a
valuable
tool
for
stimulating
debate,
stretching
the
imagination,
and
inspiring
action
and
innovation.
To
support
this,
the
S/CAP
project
previously
developed
emissions
reduction
scenarios
to
help
define
the
limits
of
what
can
be
done
locally
(by
the
community
and
the
local
government),
including
some
actions
to
be
taken
regionally
(by
the
agencies
and
communities
with
which
the
City
interacts)
to
achieve
deep
reductions
in
GHG
emissions.
The
scenarios
explore
the
limits
of
what
Palo
Alto,
as
a
progressive
city
and
an
engine
of
innovation
and
global
economic
growth,
can
do
to
achieve
deep
reductions
in
GHG
emissions.
What
does
success
look
like,
and
how
can
the
City
help
create
conditions
for
that
success?
In
contrast
to
most
City
initiatives,
the
S/CAP
project
approach
is
to
explicitly
link
the
City’s
more
traditional
approach
toward
safely
achievable
goals
with
a
“reverse
engineered”
future
vision—
planning
backwards
from
“impossible”
goals
to
the
present—and
ensuring
that
those
two
approaches
meet.
Staff
and
consultants
explored
three
“goals
scenarios”:
¥ California’s
goal
of
80%
reduction
of
GHG
emissions
by
2050
(80x50);
¥ a
more
aggressive
goal
of
80%
reduction
by
2030
(80x30)1;
and
¥ the
“California
Moonshot”:
100%
carbon
neutral
by
2025
(100x25).
At
the
beginning
of
the
SCP
process,
we
didn't
know
whether
the
Moonshot—or
any
of
these
goals—is
achievable
either
financially,
politically
or
socially.
But
we
did
know
that
the
challenges
we
pose
affect
the
questions
we
ask,
and
the
questions
we
ask
affect
the
answers
we
find.
By
first
assessing
extremely
aggressive
goals,
we
have
uncovered
potential
strategies
that
we
would
not
have
found
–
or
even
looked
for
–
if
were
focusing
on
an
80%
reduction
in
GHG
emissions
by
2050.
As
a
result
we
have
uncovering
the
potential
strategies,
driven
by
the
"moonshot"
challenge,
that
we
would
not
have
found—or
even
looked
for—if
we
were
focusing
on
80x50.
Below,
we
summarize
the
results
of
the
scenario
analysis
utilized
to
inform
the
development
of
the
S/CAP
and
support
a
grounded
conversation
by
Council
and
community
about
those
goals,
by
providing
clear
roadmaps
of
what
it
would
take
to
reach
each
of
them.
1
Note
that
on
April
29,
2015,
Governor
Jerry
Brown
issued
an
executive
order
to
establish
a
California
greenhouse
gas
reduction
target
of
40
percent
below
1990
levels
by
2030.
Governor
Jerry
Brown
has
also
called
for
50
percent
of
California’s
electricity
to
come
from
renewable
resources
by
2030,
doubling
energy
efficiency
of
existing
buildings
and
reducing
automobile
dependency
on
oil
and
gas
by
50
percent.
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 12 of 124
2050
Executive
Order:
80%
reduction
by
2050
(80x50)
In
the
transportation
sector,
full
implementation
of
the
strategies
explored
would
result
in
Palo
Alto
achieving
carbon
neutrality
by
2050.
The
top
of
the
stacked
areas
represents
the
business-‐as-‐usual
projections
based
on
historic
vehicle
fuel
efficiency
improvements
from
2005-‐2012
which
offsets
the
BAU
forecasted
increase
in
VMT.
Each
of
the
colored
areas
represents
the
emission
reductions
associated
with
different
transportation
strategies.
The
black
area
represents
the
remaining
GHG
emissions.
With
the
100%
adoption
of
electric
vehicles
combined
with
reductions
in
vehicle-‐miles
traveled,
no
carbon
offsets
are
needed
in
this
scenario.
Figure
1.
Possible
Transportation
Sector
Strategies
to
Achieve
2050
Target
Strategy
Code
Transportation
Strategy
Name
Implementation
Level
by
2050
Implementation
Description
T-‐FAC-‐1
Build
out
bike
network
100%
Convert
all
class
II
bike
lanes
to
protected
bike
lanes
Increase
bike
boulevard
mileage
from
22-‐32
miles
Expand
bike
share
to
28
stations
per
square
mile
T-‐FAC-‐2
Expand
transit
facilities
and
services
100%
Caltrain
modernization
ridership
targeted
in
2040
achieved
Expand
SamTrans,
VTA
and
Palo
Alto
shuttles
by
200%
El
Camino
Real
and
Dumbarton
Bus
Rapid
Transit
T-‐FAC-‐3
Facilitate
shared
transport
100%
Dynamic
ridesharing
based
on
San
Francisco
casual
carpool
rates,
with
Palo
Alto
share
proportionate
to
Palo
Alto
Caltrain
ridership
T-‐INC-‐1
Provide
eco-‐
pass/universal
transit
pass
100%
Expanded
Universal
Transit
Pass
(UTP)
-‐
Caltrain
GoPass,
SamTrans
Way2GoPass,
and
VTA
Ecopass,
for
all
residents
and
employees
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 13 of 124
T-‐INC-‐2
Utilize
parking
pricing
and
management
approach
100%
All
employment
sites
institute
parking
pricing,
parking
cash-‐out,
parking
feebate
equivalent
to
market
price
of
parking
Full
cost
pricing
of
residential
parking
(unbundling
or
eliminating
minimum
parking
requirements)
T-‐LU-‐1
Adopt
a
"balanced
community"
approach
for
growth
100%
Assume
jobs-‐housing
balance
of
1.44
with
growth
in
specific
areas
(e.g.,
Stanford
Research
Park,
downtown
core,
Stanford
Shopping
Center,
etc)
T-‐EV-‐1
Convert
vehicles
to
EV
100%
Assume
all
vehicles
are
electric,
or
zero
emissions
T-‐PT-‐1
Carbon
offsets
0%
No
offsets
needed
2050
Possible
Transportation
Roadmap
2015 2018 2020 2022 2024 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Palo
Alto
TMA
launched
to
support
alternatives
to
driving
T-‐FAC-‐2
Expand
transit
facilities
and
services
Continue
to
explore
ways
to
expand
service
on
local
bus/shuttle
routes
related
to
SamTrans,
VTA
and
Palo
Alto
shuttles.
Assess
needs
and
opportunities
for
increased
service
and
ridership
(links
to
provide
eco-‐pass,
universal
transit
pass)
Expand
public
transit
ridership
by
200%
by
2050
Advocate
for
major
upgrades
to
reliability,
frequency,
and
capacity
of
Caltrain
service.
Assess
potential
for
below
grade
Caltrain
improvements
Build
political
support
for
bus
rapid
transit
along
El
Camino
Real
and
cross-‐
town
Dumbarton
Provide
a
dedicated
bus
lane
and
signal
priority
for
El
Camino
Real
Bus
Rapid
Transit.
Work
with
Caltrain
to
implement
major
upgrades
to
reliability,
frequency,
and
capacity
of
Caltrain
service
ahead
of
2040
timeline
Provide
incentives
to
expand
availability
and
utilization
of
vanpools
Encourage
third-‐party
developers
to
explore
data-‐driven
transit
solutions
through
competitions,
hack-‐a-‐thons,
etc Implement
cohesive
data
platform
to
support
Mobility
as
a
Service
(MaaS)
Achieve
45%
of
class
II
bike
lanes
converted
to
protected
bike
lanes
Achieve
100%
of
class
II
bike
lanes
converted
to
protected
bike
lanes
Designate
curb
space
for
rideshare/carpool
pick-‐up
and
drop-‐off
downtown,
and
at
Caltrain
stations Discount
parking
for
carpools,
paid
parking
refund
for
vehicles
parked
in
public
lots
or
on-‐street
Objective:
Expand
non-‐
auto
mobility
options
T-‐FAC-‐1
Build
out
bike
network
for
all
ages
and
abilities
Expand
bikesharing
program
by
identifying
next
10-‐15
sites,
funding
and
coordination
with
future
development
Build
bike
stations
(parking/shower/locker
facilities)
near
public
transit
hubs/key
destinations
/transfer
points
Achieve
28
bike
share
stations
per
square
mile
(267
stations)
Identify
Class
II
bike
lanes
for
upgrade
to
protected
bike
lanes
(also
know
as
"cycle
tracks")
and
integrate
with
bicycle
boulevards
T-‐FAC-‐3
Facilitate
shared
transport
Palo
Alto
TMA
to
assess
opportunities
to
increase
availability
and
utilization
of
vanpools
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 14 of 124
Similarly,
Figure
1provides
one
possible
roadmap
to
80%
reduction
by
2050
for
the
natural
gas
sector.
The
top
of
the
stacked
colored
areas
represents
the
business-‐as-‐usual
forecasted
increase
in
natural
gas
consumption,
with
the
colored
wedges
representing
emissions
reduction
strategies.
The
black
area
at
the
bottom
is
the
remaining
GHG
emissions.
For
the
natural
gas
sector,
this
scenario
assumes
all
new
construction
is
all-‐electric
and
net
zero
energy,
along
with
significantly
more
water
heating
and
space
heating
electrification
in
the
existing
commercial
building
sector
by
2050.
In
this
scenario,
no
carbon
2015 2018 2020 2022 2024 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Require
Caltrain
go-‐
pass
as
requirement
for
MF
development
Require
Caltrain
go-‐
pass
as
requirement
for
large
office
developments
Adopt
on-‐street
parking
vacancy
target
Objective:
Create
right
financial
incentives
for
alternatives
T-‐INC-‐1
Provide
eco-‐
pass/universal
transit
pass
Expand
requirements
to
include
additional
residential
new
construction
and
significant
renovation
projects
within
0.5
miles
of
Caltrain
station Expand
requirements
to
include
universal
transit
pass
(Caltrain,
VTA,
Samtrans)
Use
meters/permits/time
limits
to
manage
parking
demand
in
congested
areas,
along
with
mobile
apps
Monitor
occupancy
and
availability
of
on-‐street
parking
regularly
100%
of
Palo
Alto
residents
have
universal
transit
pass
Expand
requirements
to
include
all
employers
within
0.5
mile
of
Caltrain
station Expand
requirements
to
include
universal
transit
pass
(Caltrain,
VTA,
Samtrans)
100%
of
Palo
Alto
employees
have
universal
transit
pass
T-‐INC-‐2
Utilize
parking
pricing
and
management
approaches
Incentivize
unbundling
of
parking
costs
from
lease/sale
of
commercial/residential
units
Require
unbundling
of
parking
costs
from
lease/sale
of
commercial/residential
units
Eliminate
requirements
for
provision
of
off-‐street
parking
for
new
commercial/residential
Incentivize
employers
to
offer
employees
option
to
receive
transportation
benefits
instead
of
parking
benefits
(feebates,
etc)
Require
employers
to
offer
employees
option
to
receive
transportation
benefits
instead
of
parking
benefits
2015 2018 2020 2022 2024 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
CompPlan
2030
underway
Objective:
Implement
land-‐use
development
approaches
T-‐LU-‐1
Adopt
Comp
Plan
Scenario
4
(Modified)
Replace
zoning
restrictions
on
residential
unit
density
with
a
cap
on
average
daily
vehicle
trips
generated
Provide
incentives
for
growth
and
development
in
transit-‐accessible
areas
(e.g.,
tying
allowable
floor-‐
to-‐area
ratios
to
reductions
in
VMT
and
other
sustainability
measures)
Through
CompPlan
2030,
continue
to
identify
areas
for
increased
density
and
potential
future
development
Enable/support
low-‐traffic/low-‐carbon
mixed-‐use
development,
in
specific
areas
through
zoning,
complete
streets
requirements
and
other
land
use
strategies
2015 2018 2020 2022 2024 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Support
and
incentivize
public
&
private
EV
charging
infrastructure
through
reducing
permitting
fees/streamlining
process
Develop
Priority
parking
program
for
EVs
Investigate
options
for
community-‐scale
bulk
purchasing
of
EVs
Collaborate
with
and
promote
EV
charging
apps
(e.g.
PlugShare)
LEVER:
Reduce
carbon
intensity
of
vehicular
travel
T-‐EV-‐1
Convert
vehicles
in
Palo
Alto
and
surrounding
region
to
EVs
Develop
and
implement
EV
charging
infrastructure
plan
for
city
City
fleet
vehicles
lead
the
way:
electric
school
buses,
garbage
trucks,
etc
Sales
tax
refund
for
EV
purchased
in
Palo
Alto
by
Palo
Alto
residents
Require
pre-‐wiring
of
electric
vehicle
charging
infrastructure
Require
electric
vehicle
supply
equipment
(EVSE)
actually
installed
for
all
new
residential
/
commercial
construction,
additions,
and
remodels
Incentivize
automakers
to
design
improved
EVs
through
kickstarter
campaign
(similar
to
Automotive
X
Prize)
Engage
with
EV
car
dealerships
to
simplify
sales
process
and
promote
EV
educational
resources
Smart
phone
apps
to
provide
real-‐time
traffic
information,
and
provide
reservation
services
and
map
of
available
EV
charging
stations.
100%
of
vehicles
are
electric
by
2050
Bulk
purchase
program
for
EV's
and
EVSE
equipment
to
bring
down
costs
of
EV
purchases
Develop
behavior-‐change
campaign(s)
to
encourage
residents
and
employees
to
purchase
EV's,
utilize
public
charging
stations.
Monitor
purchases
of
EV's,
installation
of
charging
stations,
to
determine
whether
uptake
is
meeting
targets.
Adjust
targets
and
behavior
change
campaigns
accordingly.
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 15 of 124
offsets
are
needed
to
achieve
the
2050
target.
The
estimated
net
present
value
is
$465
million
associated
with
natural
gas
strategies
in
this
scenario.
Figure
2.
Possible
Natural
Gas
Sector
Strategies
to
Achieve
2050
Target
Strategy
Code
Natural
Gas
Strategies
Implementation
Level
by
2050
Annual
Adoption
Rate
Implementation
Description
NG-‐RES-‐1
Residential
water
heating
electrification
100%
3%
Assume
all
residential
water
heaters
could
be
replaced
with
electric
if
we
start
immediately
NG-‐RES-‐2
Residential
space
heating
electrification
70%
2%
Residential
space
heating
more
difficult
and
less
cost-‐effective
than
water
heating
NG-‐COMM-‐
1
Commercial
water
heating
electrification
85%
2%
Assume
small
commercial
buildings
have
a
gas
storage
tank
water
heater
that
is
replaced
by
an
air
source
heat
pump
water
heater.
Assume
large
commercial
buildings
have
a
gas
boiler
that
is
replaced
with
solar
hot
water
and
electric
resistance
heating.
NG-‐COMM-‐
2
Commercial
space
heating
electrification
85%
2%
Assume
small
commercial
buildings
have
gas-‐
pack
furnaces
that
are
replaced
by
a
packaged
heat
pump
heater.
Assume
large
commercial
buildings
have
gas
boilers
that
are
replaced
with
heat
recovery
chillers.
80%
by
2050
(no
offsets)
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 16 of 124
NG-‐COOK-‐1
Commercial
cooking
electrification
50%
1%
Given
the
industry,
fairly
aggressive,
but
minimal
impact
on
overall
cost
of
scenario
NG-‐GAS-‐1
Restrict
natural
gas
hook-‐ups
and
require
ZNE
new
construction
100%
100%
All
new
construction
achieves
ZNE,
no
gas
hook-‐up
(both
residential
and
commercial)
NG-‐OFF-‐1
Carbon
offsets
0%
0.0%
No
offsets
needed
to
achieve
80%
by
2050
goal
NG-‐OFF-‐2
Biogas
0%
0.0%
No
biogas
needed
to
achieve
80%
by
2050
goal
2050
Possible
Natural
Gas
Roadmap
2015 2018 2020 2022 2024 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Replace
on
burnout
pathway
Pilot
24-‐
hour
hotline
Voluntary
retrofit
pathway
Institutional
pathway
Time
of
sale
pathway
NG-‐RES-‐1
&
NG-‐RES-‐
2
Residential
water
heating
/
space
heating
-‐
fuel
switch
Information
services
for
electric
water
heaters/
space
heating
systems
Full
implementation
of
24-‐hour
hotline
for
electric
water
heater
replacement
Require
all
water
heaters
/
space
heating
systems
be
replaced
with
electric
at
end-‐of-‐life
Develop
utility
program
for
electric
water
heater/space
heating
system
replacements,
pilot
electrification
of
a
sample
of
homes
Evaluate
replacement
rates.
Increase
incentives
for
electric
water/space
heating
systems
if
needed Require
electrification
as
part
of
all
water
heaters
/
space
heating
system
retrofit
projects
Streamline
permitting
process
for
electric
water
heaters
/
space
heating
systems
Work
with
local
distributors
and
contractors
to
implement
upstream
incentive
programs
Develop
energy
benchmarking
and
disclosure
time-‐of-‐sale
ordinance
for
residential
Voluntary
time-‐of
sale
ordinance
for
energy
efficiency
and
electrification
(incentives
and
recognition
program)
Mandatory
time-‐of-‐sale
ordinance
for
energy
efficiency
and
electrification
2015 2018 2020 2022 2024 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Tenant
improvement
pathway
Voluntary
retrofit
pathway
Institutional
pathway
Time
of
sale
pathway
NG-‐COMM-‐1
&
NG-‐
COMM-‐2
Commercial
water
heating
/
space
heating
-‐
fuel
switch
Information
and
outreach
related
to
tenant
improvement
building
permits
Voluntary
program
(e.g.,
incentives,
checklists,
expedited
permitting,
reduced
fees)
for
electrification
of
space
and
water
heating
equipment
Require
electrification
as
part
of
all
water
heaters
/
space
heating
system
retrofit
projects
Develop
utility
program
for
electric
water
heater/gas
heating
system
replacements
Evaluate
replacement
rates.
Increase
incentives
for
electric
water/space
heating
systems
if
needed
Streamline
permitting
process
for
electric
water
heaters
/
space
heating
systems
Work
with
local
distributors
and
contractors
to
implement
upstream
programs
Education
and
outreach
to
vendors,
landlords,
real
estate
community
Develop
voluntary
time-‐of-‐sale
requirement
for
energy
upgrades
Develop
mandatory
time-‐of-‐sale
requirement
for
energy
upgrades
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 17 of 124
2030
Challenge:
80%
reduction
by
2030
(80x30)
Under
this
80x30
scenario,
additional
carbon
offsets
are
needed
to
achieve
the
80%
reduction
by
2030
goal.
For
2030,
we
considered
what
aggressive
levels
of
implementation
might
be
possible
by
2030
for
protected
bike
lanes,
transportation
network
company
facilitated
ridesharing,
universal
transit
pass,
parking
pricing
(e.g.,
unbundling
and
full
cost
pricing
of
parking),
etc.
In
this
scenario,
the
selected
strategies
and
associated
implementation
levels
achieve
the
target;
thus,
and
carbon
offsets
are
not
necessary
to
meet
the
2030
target.
The
2030
scenario
is
estimated
to
result
in
approximately
$390
million
in
net
present
value
(savings),
along
with
an
investment
cost
of
approximately
$800
million.
2015 2018 2020 2022 2024 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Green
gas
pathway
Implementation
of
voluntary
"Palo
Alto
Green
Gas"
program
Assess
costs
of
carbon
offsets
and
biogas
for
all
natural
gas
usage
in
the
community
Infrastructure
pathway
Financing
and
rates
pathway
N-‐OFF-‐1
and
NG-‐
INF-‐1
Green
gas,
offsets
and
new
utility
business
model
to
support
carbon
neutrality
Purchase
of
carbon
offsets
and/or
biogas
with
goal
of
100%
by
2020
implement
study
of
natural
gas
distribution
system
and
impacts
of
reduced
natural
gas
consumption
Develop
roadmap
for
staged/planned
reductions
in
specific
areas
of
the
city
(which
neighborhoods
are
likely
to
be
most
impacted/early
adopters)
Actively
manage
reductions
in
natural
gas
delivery
Assess
appropriate
restructuring
of
natural
gas
and
electricity
rates
for
electrification
Restructure
natural
gas
&
electricity
rates
to
support
fuel
switching
to
electricity
Continue
to
support
policy
and
long
term
planning
for
restructuring
gas
utility
that
will
minimize
financial
risks
to
rate
payers
or
bond-‐holders
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 18 of 124
Figure
3.
Possible
Transportation
Sector
Strategies
to
Achieve
2030
Target
Strategy
Code
Transportation
Strategy
Name
Implementation
Level
by
2030
Implementation
Description
T-‐FAC-‐1
Build
out
bike
network
40%
40%
of
class
II
bike
lanes
converted
to
protected
bike
lanes
Increase
bike
boulevard
mileage
from
22-‐26
miles
Expand
bike
share
to
11
stations
per
square
mile
T-‐FAC-‐2
Expand
transit
facilities
and
services
60%
Expand
SamTrans,
VTA
and
Palo
Alto
shuttle
ridership
by
60%
and
support
bus
rapid
transit
and
advocate
for
major
upgrades
to
reliability,
frequency,
and
capacity
of
Caltrain
service.
T-‐FAC-‐3
Facilitate
shared
transport
60%
Achieve
60%
of
current
levels
of
SF
casual
carpool
rates,
pro-‐rated
for
Palo
Alto
T-‐INC-‐1
Provide
eco-‐
pass/universal
transit
pass
100%
100%
of
residents
and
employees
have
Universal
Transit
Passes
T-‐INC-‐2
Utilize
parking
pricing
and
management
approach
50%
All
city
parking
sites
and
50%
of
private
sites
have
parking
pricing
T-‐LU-‐1
Adopt
a
"balanced
community"
approach
for
growth
5%
Target
2.95
jobs-‐housing
balance,
as
defined
by
jobs-‐
employed
residents
ratio
(currently
at
3.06
in
2014)
T-‐EV-‐1
Convert
Palo
Alto
vehicles
to
EV
90%
90%
of
vehicles
converted
to
electric
T-‐PT-‐1
Carbon
offsets
0%
No
carbon
offsets
are
needed
to
achieve
the
80x30
GHG
target
80%
by
2030
(with
offsets)
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 19 of 124
2030
Possible
Transportation
Roadmap
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2030
Palo
Alto
TMA
launched
to
support
alternatives
to
driving
T-‐FAC-‐2
Expand
transit
facilities
and
services
Continue
to
explore
ways
to
expand
service
on
local
bus/shuttle
routes
related
to
SamTrans,
VTA
and
Palo
Alto
shuttles.
Assess
needs
and
opportunities
for
increased
service
and
ridership
(links
to
provide
eco-‐pass,
universal
transit
pass)
Build
bike
stations
(parking/shower/locker
facilities)
near
public
transit
hubs/key
destinations
/transfer
points
Achieve
11
bike
share
stations
per
square
mile
(81
stations)
Identify
Class
II
bike
lanes
for
upgrade
to
protected
bike
lanes
(also
know
as
"cycle
tracks")
and
integrate
with
bicycle
boulevards
Achieve
15%
of
class
II
bike
lanes
converted
to
protected
bike
lanes
Achieve
40%
of
class
II
bike
lanes
converted
to
protected
bike
lanes
Expand
public
transit
ridership
by
60%
by
2030
Advocate
for
major
upgrades
to
reliability,
frequency,
and
capacity
of
Caltrain
service.
Assess
potential
for
below
grade
Caltrain
improvements
Work
with
Caltrain
to
implement
major
upgrades
to
reliability,
frequency,
and
capacity
of
Caltrain
service
ahead
of
2040
timeline
Build
political
support
for
bus
rapid
transit
along
El
Camino
Real
and
cross-‐
town
Dumbarton
Provide
a
dedicated
bus
lane
and
signal
priority
for
El
Camino
Real
Bus
Rapid
Transit.
Designate
curb
space
for
rideshare/carpool
pick-‐up
and
drop-‐off
downtown,
and
at
Caltrain
stations Discount
parking
for
carpools,
paid
parking
refund
for
vehicles
parked
in
public
lots
or
on-‐street
T-‐FAC-‐3
Facilitate
shared
transport
Palo
Alto
TMA
to
assess
opportunities
to
increase
availability
and
utilization
of
vanpools Provide
incentives
to
expand
availability
and
utilization
of
vanpools
Encourage
third-‐party
developers
to
explore
data-‐driven
transit
solutions
through
competitions,
hack-‐a-‐thons,
etc Implement
cohesive
data
platform
to
support
Mobility
as
a
Service
(MaaS)
Objective:
Expand
non-‐
auto
mobility
options
T-‐FAC-‐1
Build
out
bike
network
for
all
ages
and
abilities
Expand
bikesharing
program
by
identifying
next
10-‐15
sites,
funding
and
coordination
with
future
development
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2030
Require
Caltrain
go-‐
pass
as
requirement
for
MF
development
Require
Caltrain
go-‐
pass
as
requirement
for
large
office
developments
Adopt
on-‐street
parking
vacancy
target
Objective:
Create
right
financial
incentives
for
alternatives
T-‐INC-‐1
Provide
eco-‐
pass/universal
transit
pass
Expand
requirements
to
include
additional
residential
new
construction
and
significant
renovation
projects
within
0.5
miles
of
Caltrain
station Expand
requirements
to
include
universal
transit
pass
(Caltrain,
VTA,
Samtrans)
Use
meters/permits/time
limits
to
manage
parking
demand
in
congested
areas,
along
with
mobile
apps
Monitor
occupancy
and
availability
of
on-‐street
parking
regularly
75%
of
Palo
Alto
residents
have
universal
transit
pass
Expand
requirements
to
include
all
employers
within
0.5
mile
of
Caltrain
station Expand
requirements
to
include
universal
transit
pass
(Caltrain,
VTA,
Samtrans)
75%
of
Palo
Alto
employees
have
universal
transit
pass
T-‐INC-‐2
Utilize
parking
pricing
and
management
approaches
Incentivize
unbundling
of
parking
costs
from
lease/sale
of
commercial/residential
units
Require
unbundling
of
parking
costs
from
lease/sale
of
commercial/residential
units
Eliminate
requirements
for
provision
of
off-‐street
parking
for
new
commercial/residential
Incentivize
employers
to
offer
employees
option
to
receive
transportation
benefits
instead
of
parking
benefits
(feebates,
etc)
Require
employers
to
offer
employees
option
to
receive
transportation
benefits
instead
of
parking
benefits
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2030
CompPlan
2030
underway
Objective:
Implement
land-‐use
development
approaches
T-‐LU-‐1
Adopt
Comp
Plan
Scenario
4
(Modified)
Replace
zoning
restrictions
on
residential
unit
density
with
a
cap
on
average
daily
vehicle
trips
generated
Provide
incentives
for
growth
and
development
in
transit-‐accessible
areas
(e.g.,
tying
allowable
floor-‐
to-‐area
ratios
to
reductions
in
VMT
and
other
sustainability
measures)
Through
CompPlan
2030,
continue
to
identify
areas
for
increased
density
and
potential
future
development
Enable/support
low-‐traffic/low-‐carbon
mixed-‐use
development,
in
specific
areas
through
zoning,
complete
streets
requirements
and
other
land
use
strategies
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 20 of 124
For
the
natural
gas
sector,
the
proposed
rate
of
electrification
of
natural
gas
equipment
would
result
in
the
achievement
of
sufficient
emissions
reductions
by
2030
without
the
need
to
purchase
carbon
offsets.
This
scenario
assumes
all
new
construction
is
all-‐electric
and
net
zero
energy,
along
with
significantly
more
water
heating
and
space
heating
electrification
in
the
existing
commercial
building
sector
by
2030.
The
associated
net
present
value
associated
with
natural
gas
strategies
is
estimated
at
$157
million
(savings),
largely
driven
by
the
financial
savings
associated
with
net
zero
energy
new
construction.
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2030
Support
and
incentivize
public
&
private
EV
charging
infrastructure
through
reducing
permitting
fees/streamlining
process
Develop
Priority
parking
program
for
EVs
Investigate
options
for
community-‐scale
bulk
purchasing
of
EVs
Collaborate
with
and
promote
EV
charging
apps
(e.g.
PlugShare)
LEVER:
Reduce
carbon
intensity
of
vehicular
travel
T-‐EV-‐1
Convert
vehicles
in
Palo
Alto
and
surrounding
region
to
EVs
Develop
and
implement
EV
charging
infrastructure
plan
for
city
City
fleet
vehicles
lead
the
way:
electric
school
buses,
garbage
trucks,
etc
Sales
tax
refund
for
EV
purchased
in
Palo
Alto
by
Palo
Alto
residents
(8%
reduction)
75%
of
vehicles
are
electric
by
2030
Bulk
purchase
program
for
EV's
and
EVSE
equipment
to
bring
down
costs
of
EV
purchases
Require
pre-‐wiring
of
electric
vehicle
charging
infrastructure
Require
electric
vehicle
supply
equipment
(EVSE)
actually
installed
for
all
new
residential
/
commercial
construction,
additions,
and
remodels
Incentivize
automakers
to
design
improved
EVs
through
kickstarter
campaign
(similar
to
Automotive
X
Prize)
Engage
with
EV
car
dealerships
to
simplify
sales
process
and
promote
EV
educational
resources
Smart
phone
apps
to
provide
real-‐time
traffic
information,
and
provide
reservation
services
and
map
of
available
EV
charging
stations.
Develop
behavior-‐change
campaign(s)
to
encourage
residents
and
employees
to
purchase
EV's,
utilize
public
charging
stations.
Monitor
purchases
of
EV's,
installation
of
charging
stations,
to
determine
whether
uptake
is
meeting
targets.
Adjust
targets
and
behavior
change
campaigns
accordingly.
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 21 of 124
Figure
4.
Possible
Natural
Gas
Sector
Strategies
to
Achieve
2030
Target
Strategy
Code
Natural
Gas
Strategies
Implementation
Level
by
2030
Annual
Adoption
Rate
Implementation
Description
NG-‐RES-‐1
Residential
water
heating
electrification
70%
7%
Assume
significant
portion
of
residential
water
heaters
could
be
replaced
with
electric
if
we
start
immediately
NG-‐RES-‐2
Residential
space
heating
electrification
60%
5%
Residential
space
heating
more
difficult
and
less
cost-‐effective
than
water
heating
NG-‐COMM-‐
1
Commercial
water
heating
electrification
50%
6%
Assume
small
commercial
buildings
have
a
gas
storage
tank
water
heater
that
is
replaced
by
an
air
source
heat
pump
water
heater.
Assume
large
commercial
buildings
have
a
gas
boiler
that
is
replaced
with
solar
hot
water
and
electric
resistance
heating.
NG-‐COMM-‐
2
Commercial
space
heating
electrification
50%
6%
Assume
small
commercial
buildings
have
gas-‐
pack
furnaces
that
are
replaced
by
a
packaged
heat
pump
heater.
Assume
large
commercial
buildings
have
gas
boilers
that
are
replaced
with
heat
recovery
chillers
.
NG-‐COOK-‐1
Commercial
cooking
electrification
40%
3%
Given
the
industry,
fairly
aggressive,
but
minimal
impact
on
overall
cost
of
scenario
80%
by
2030
(with
no
offsets
needed)
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 22 of 124
Strategy
Code
Natural
Gas
Strategies
Implementation
Level
by
2030
Annual
Adoption
Rate
Implementation
Description
NG-‐GAS-‐1
Restrict
natural
gas
hook-‐ups
and
require
ZNE
new
construction
100%
100%
All
new
construction
achieves
ZNE,
no
gas
hook-‐
up
(both
residential
and
commercial)
NG-‐OFF-‐1
Carbon
offsets
0%
0.0%
No
offsets
needed
to
achieve
80%
by
2030
goal
NG-‐OFF-‐2
Biogas
0%
0.0%
No
biogas
needed
to
achieve
80%
by
2030
goal
2030
Possible
Natural
Gas
Roadmap
2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2030
Replace
on
burnout
pathway
Pilot
24-‐hour
hotline
Voluntary
retrofit
pathway
Institutional
pathway
Time
of
sale
pathway
NG-‐RES-‐1
&
NG-‐RES-‐
2
Residential
water
heating
/
space
heating
-‐
fuel
switch
Information
services
for
electric
water
heaters/
space
heating
systems
Full
implementation
of
24-‐hour
hotline
for
electric
water
heater
replacement
Require
all
water
heaters
/
space
heating
systems
be
replaced
with
electric
at
end-‐of-‐
life
Develop
utility
program
for
electric
water
heater/space
heating
system
replacements,
pilot
electrification
of
a
sample
of
homes
Evaluate
replacement
rates.
Increase
incentives
for
electric
water/space
heating
systems
if
needed Require
electrification
as
part
of
all
water
heaters
/
space
heating
system
retrofit
projects
Streamline
permitting
process
for
electric
water
heaters
/
space
heating
systems
Work
with
local
distributors
and
contractors
to
implement
upstream
incentive
programs
Develop
energy
benchmarking
and
disclosure
time-‐of-‐sale
ordinance
for
residential
Voluntary
time-‐of
sale
ordinance
for
energy
efficiency
and
electrification
(incentives
and
recognition
program)
Mandatory
time-‐of-‐sale
ordinance
for
completing
energy
efficiency
and
electrification
2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2030
Tenant
improvement
pathway
Voluntary
retrofit
pathway
Institutional
pathway
Time
of
sale
pathway
NG-‐COMM-‐1
&
NG-‐
COMM-‐2
Commercial
water
heating
/
space
heating
-‐
fuel
switch
Information
and
outreach
related
to
tenant
improvement
building
permits
Voluntary
program
(e.g.,
incentives,
checklists,
expedited
permitting,
reduced
fees)
for
electrification
of
space
and
water
heating
equipment
Require
electrification
as
part
of
all
water
heaters
/
space
heating
system
retrofit
projects
Develop
utility
program
for
electric
water
heater/gas
heating
system
replacements
Evaluate
replacement
rates.
Increase
incentives
for
electric
water/space
heating
systems
if
needed
Streamline
permitting
process
for
electric
water
heaters
/
space
heating
systems Work
with
local
distributors
and
contractors
to
implement
upstream
programs
Education
and
outreach
to
vendors,
landlords,
real
estate
community
Develop
voluntary
time-‐of-‐sale
requirement
for
energy
upgrades
Develop
mandatory
time-‐of-‐sale
requirement
for
energy
upgrades
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 23 of 124
California
Moonshot:
100%
carbon
neutral
by
2025
(100x25)
For
the
California
Moonshot
goal,
the
project
team
explored
what
might
be
at
the
outer
limits
of
feasibility
for
each
strategy
by
2025.
For
both
the
transportation
and
natural
gas
sectors,
aggressive
levels
of
implementation
were
assumed
for
each
strategy,
combined
with
purchase
of
offsets
for
Palo
Alto
to
achieve
carbon
neutrality
by
2025.
2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2030
Green
gas
pathway
Implementation
of
voluntary
"Palo
Alto
Green
Gas"
program
Assess
costs
of
carbon
offsets
and
biogas
for
all
natural
gas
usage
in
the
community
Infrastructure
pathway
Financing
and
rates
pathway
N-‐OFF-‐1
and
NG-‐
INF-‐1
Green
gas,
offsets
and
new
utility
business
model
to
support
carbon
neutrality
Purchase
of
carbon
offsets
and/or
biogas
with
goal
of
100%
by
2025
implement
study
of
natural
gas
distribution
system
and
impacts
of
reduced
natural
gas
consumption
Develop
roadmap
for
staged/planned
reductions
in
specific
areas
of
the
city
(which
neighborhoods
are
likely
to
be
most
impacted/early
adopters)
Actively
manage
reductions
in
natural
gas
delivery
Assess
appropriate
restructuring
of
natural
gas
and
electricity
rates
for
electrification
Restructure
natural
gas
&
electricity
rates
to
support
fuel
switching
to
electricity
Continue
to
support
policy
and
long
term
planning
for
restructuring
gas
utility
that
will
minimize
financial
risks
to
rate
payers
or
bond-‐holders
2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2030
New
construction
pathway:
green
building
ordinance
Existing
buildings
pathway
Release
LIDAR
as
open
data
Infrastructure
pathway
NG-‐INF-‐2
Increase
local
distributed
generation
in
Palo
Alto
Consider
ZNE
for
larger
residential
for
2017
code
cycle
Consider
ZNE
for
some
commercial
buildings
and
no
new
natural
gas
hookups
in
residential
by
2025
Continue
to
support
bulk
purchase
programs,
PACE
financing
to
bring
down
costs
of
solar
PV
panels
Conduct
a
distribution
system
/
renewables
impact
study
to
determine
the
most
cost-‐effective
methods
to
stabilize
the
local
distribution
grid
Install
smart
meters
in
all
commercial
and
residential
buildings
Require
"smart"
inverters
to
control
impacts
of
solar
intermittency
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 24 of 124
Figure
5.
Possible
Transportation
Sector
Strategies
to
Achieve
2025
Target
Strategy
Code
Transportation
Strategy
Name
Implementation
Level
by
2025
Implementation
Description
T-‐FAC-‐1
Build
out
bike
network
30%
30%
of
class
II
bike
lanes
converted
to
protected
bike
lanes
Increase
bike
boulevard
mileage
from
22-‐25
miles
Expand
bike
share
to
9
stations
per
square
mile
T-‐FAC-‐2
Expand
transit
facilities
and
services
20%
Achieve
20%
of
target
ridership
of
Caltrain
modernization
Expand
SamTrans,
VTA
and
Palo
Alto
shuttles
by
40%
T-‐FAC-‐3
Facilitate
shared
transport
50%
Achieve
50%
of
current
levels
of
SF
casual
carpool
rates,
pro-‐rated
for
Palo
Alto
T-‐INC-‐1
Provide
eco-‐
pass/universal
transit
pass
50%
50%
of
residents
and
employees
have
Universal
Transit
Passes
T-‐INC-‐2
Utilize
parking
pricing
and
management
approach
30%
30%
of
sites
have
parking
pricing
T-‐LU-‐1
Adopt
a
"balanced
community"
approach
for
growth
10%
Target
3.2
jobs-‐housing
balance
(currently
at
3.34)
T-‐EV-‐1
Convert
vehicles
to
EV
50%
50%
of
vehicles
converted
to
electric
T-‐PT-‐1
Carbon
offsets
100%
Purchase
offsets
for
remaining
emissions
Carbon
neutral
by
2025
(with
offsets)
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 25 of 124
2025
Possible
Transportation
Roadmap
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Palo
Alto
TMA
launched
to
support
alternatives
to
driving
Expand
bikesharing
program
by
identifying
next
10-‐15
sites,
funding
and
coordination
with
future
development
Build
bike
stations
(parking/shower/locker
facilities)
near
public
transit
hubs/key
destinations
/transfer
points
Achieve
9
bike
share
stations
per
square
mile
(81
stations)
Identify
Class
II
bike
lanes
for
upgrade
to
protected
bike
lanes
(also
know
as
"cycle
tracks")
and
integrate
with
bicycle
boulevards
Build
political
support
for
bus
rapid
transit
along
El
Camino
Real
and
cross-‐
town
Dumbarton
Provide
a
dedicated
bus
lane
and
signal
priority
for
El
Camino
Real
Bus
Rapid
Transit.
Achieve
30%
of
class
II
bike
lanes
converted
to
protected
bike
lanes
Achieve
15%
of
class
II
bike
lanes
converted
to
protected
bike
lanes
Work
with
Caltrain
to
implement
major
upgrades
to
reliability,
frequency,
and
capacity
of
Caltrain
service
ahead
of
2040
timeline
Continue
to
explore
ways
to
expand
service
on
local
bus/shuttle
routes
related
to
SamTrans,
VTA
and
Palo
Alto
shuttles.
Assess
needs
and
opportunities
for
increased
service
and
ridership
(links
to
provide
eco-‐pass,
universal
transit
pass)
Provide
incentives
to
expand
availability
and
utilization
of
vanpools
Palo
Alto
TMA
to
assess
opportunities
to
increase
availability
and
utilization
of
vanpools
Implement
cohesive
data
platform
to
support
Mobility
as
a
Service
(MaaS)
Objective:
Expand
non-‐
auto
mobility
options
T-‐FAC-‐1
Build
out
bike
network
for
all
ages
and
abilities
T-‐FAC-‐2
Expand
transit
facilities
and
services
Expand
public
transit
ridership
by
40%
by
2025
Encourage
third-‐party
developers
to
explore
data-‐driven
transit
solutions
through
competitions,
hack-‐a-‐thons,
etc
Designate
curb
space
for
rideshare/carpool
pick-‐up
and
drop-‐off
downtown,
and
at
Caltrain
stations
Advocate
for
major
upgrades
to
reliability,
frequency,
and
capacity
of
Caltrain
service.
Assess
potential
for
below
grade
Caltrain
improvements
Discount
parking
for
carpools,
paid
parking
refund
for
vehicles
parked
in
public
lots
or
on-‐street
T-‐FAC-‐3
Facilitate
shared
transport
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Require
Caltrain
go-‐
pass
as
requirement
for
MF
development
Require
Caltrain
go-‐
pass
as
requirement
for
large
office
developments
Adopt
on-‐street
parking
vacancy
target
50%
of
Palo
Alto
residents
have
universal
transit
pass
50%
of
Palo
Alto
employees
have
universal
transit
pass
Expand
requirements
to
include
additional
residential
new
construction
and
significant
renovation
projects
within
0.5
miles
of
Caltrain
station
Expand
requirements
to
include
all
employers
within
0.5
mile
of
Caltrain
station
Expand
requirements
to
include
universal
transit
pass
(Caltrain,
VTA,
Samtrans)
Expand
requirements
to
include
universal
transit
pass
(Caltrain,
VTA,
Samtrans)
Objective:
Create
right
financial
incentives
for
alternatives
T-‐INC-‐1
Provide
eco-‐
pass/universal
transit
pass
T-‐INC-‐2
Utilize
parking
pricing
and
management
approaches
Monitor
occupancy
and
availability
of
on-‐street
parking
regularly
Incentivize
employers
to
offer
employees
option
to
receive
transportation
benefits
instead
of
parking
benefits
(feebates,
etc)
Require
employers
to
offer
employees
option
to
receive
transportation
benefits
instead
of
parking
benefits
Use
meters/permits/time
limits
to
manage
parking
demand
in
congested
areas,
along
with
mobile
apps
Eliminate
requirements
for
provision
of
off-‐street
parking
for
new
commercial/residential
Require
unbundling
of
parking
costs
from
lease/sale
of
commercial/residential
units
Incentivize
unbundling
of
parking
costs
from
lease/sale
of
commercial/residential
units
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
CompPlan
2030
underway
Objective:
Implement
land-‐use
development
approaches
T-‐LU-‐1
Adopt
Comp
Plan
Scenario
4
(Modified)
Replace
zoning
restrictions
on
residential
unit
density
with
a
cap
on
average
daily
vehicle
trips
generated
Enable/support
low-‐traffic/low-‐carbon
mixed-‐use
development,
in
specific
areas
through
zoning,
complete
streets
requirements
and
other
land
use
strategies
Through
CompPlan
2030,
continue
to
identify
areas
for
increased
density
and
potential
future
development
Provide
incentives
for
growth
and
development
in
transit-‐accessible
areas
(e.g.,
tying
allowable
floor-‐
to-‐area
ratios
to
reductions
in
VMT
and
other
sustainability
measures)
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 26 of 124
In
the
natural
gas
sector,
this
scenario
includes
targets
such
as
converting
all
residential
water
heaters
to
electric
by
2025,
as
well
as
a
substantial
percent
of
commercial
water
heating
and
space
heating
technologies.
This
scenario
is
estimated
to
result
in
a
net
present
value
of
$28
million
(savings),
which
is
inclusive
of
$13
million
(cost)
spent
on
offsets
from
2016-‐2025.
Figure
6.
Possible
Natural
Gas
Sector
Strategies
to
Achieve
2025
Target
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Support
and
incentivize
public
&
private
EV
charging
infrastructure
through
reducing
permitting
fees/streamlining
process
Develop
Priority
parking
program
for
EVs
Investigate
options
for
community-‐scale
bulk
purchasing
of
EVs
Collaborate
with
and
promote
EV
charging
apps
(e.g.
PlugShare)
LEVER:
Reduce
carbon
intensity
of
vehicular
travel
T-‐EV-‐1
Convert
vehicles
in
Palo
Alto
and
surrounding
region
to
EVs
50%
of
vehicles
are
electric
by
2050
Require
pre-‐wiring
of
electric
vehicle
charging
infrastructure
Require
electric
vehicle
supply
equipment
(EVSE)
actually
installed
for
all
new
residential
/
commercial
construction,
additions,
and
remodels
Sales
tax
refund
for
EV
purchased
in
Palo
Alto
by
Palo
Alto
residents
(8%
reduction)
Smart
phone
apps
to
provide
real-‐time
traffic
information,
and
provide
reservation
services
and
map
of
available
EV
charging
stations.
Develop
behavior-‐change
campaign(s)
to
encourage
residents
and
employees
to
purchase
EV's,
utilize
public
charging
stations.
Monitor
purchases
of
EV's,
installation
of
charging
stations,
to
determine
whether
uptake
is
meeting
targets.
Adjust
targets
and
behavior
change
campaigns
accordingly.
Incentivize
automakers
to
design
improved
EVs
through
kickstarter
campaign
(similar
to
Automotive
X
Prize)
Engage
with
EV
car
dealerships
to
simplify
sales
process
and
promote
EV
educational
resources
Develop
and
implement
EV
charging
infrastructure
plan
for
city
City
fleet
vehicles
lead
the
way:
electric
school
buses,
garbage
trucks,
etc
Bulk
purchase
program
for
EV's
and
EVSE
equipment
to
bring
down
costs
of
EV
purchases
Carbon
neutral
by
2025
(with
offsets)
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 27 of 124
Strategy
Code
Natural
Gas
Strategy
Name
Implementation
Level
by
2025
Annual
Adoption
Rate
Implementation
Description
NG-‐RES-‐1
Residential
water
heating
electrification
100%
10%
Assume
all
residential
water
heaters
could
be
replaced
with
electric
if
we
start
immediately
NG-‐RES-‐2
Residential
space
heating
electrification
40%
5%
Residential
space
heating
more
difficult
and
less
cost-‐effective
than
water
heating
NG-‐
COMM-‐1
Commercial
water
heating
electrification
60%
6%
Assume
small
commercial
buildings
have
a
gas
storage
tank
water
heater
that
is
replaced
by
an
air
source
heat
pump
water
heater.
Assume
large
commercial
buildings
have
a
gas
boiler
that
is
replaced
with
solar
hot
water
and
electric
resistance
heating.
NG-‐
COMM-‐2
Commercial
space
heating
electrification
60%
6%
Assume
small
commercial
buildings
have
gas-‐
pack
furnaces
that
are
replaced
by
a
packaged
heat
pump
heater.
Assume
large
commercial
buildings
have
gas
boilers
that
are
replaced
with
heat
recovery
chillers
.
NG-‐COOK-‐
1
Commercial
cooking
electrification
30%
3%
Given
the
industry,
fairly
aggressive,
but
minimal
impact
on
overall
cost
of
scenario
NG-‐GAS-‐1
Restrict
natural
gas
hook-‐ups
and
require
ZNE
new
construction
60%
60%
Of
new
construction
between
2016-‐2025,
only
60%
achieve
ZNE,
no
gas
hook-‐up
(both
residential
and
commercial)
NG-‐OFF-‐1
Carbon
offsets
100%
100%
Purchase
offsets
for
remaining
emissions
NG-‐OFF-‐2
Biogas
100%
0%
Procure
biogas
for
remaining
gas
use
2025
Possible
Natural
Gas
Roadmap
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Replace
on
burnout
pathway
Pilot
24-‐
hour
hotline
Voluntary
retrofit
pathway
Institutional
pathway
Time
of
sale
pathway
NG-‐RES-‐1
&
NG-‐RES-‐
2
Residential
water
heating
/
space
heating
-‐
fuel
switch Work
with
local
distributors
and
contractors
to
implement
upstream
incentive
programs
Voluntary
time-‐of
sale
ordinance
for
energy
efficiency
and
electrification
(incentives
and
recognition
program)
Mandatory
time-‐of-‐sale
ordinance
for
completing
energy
efficiency
and
electrification
Develop
energy
benchmarking
and
disclosure
time-‐of-‐sale
ordinance
for
residential
Develop
utility
program
for
electric
water
heater/space
heating
system
replacements,
pilot
electrification
of
a
sample
of
homes
Evaluate
replacement
rates.
Increase
incentives
for
electric
water/space
heating
systems
if
needed
Full
implementation
of
24-‐hour
hotline
for
electric
water
heater
replacement
Require
electrification
as
part
of
all
water
heaters
/
space
heating
system
retrofit
projects
Require
all
water
heaters
/
space
heating
systems
be
replaced
with
electric
at
end-‐of-‐life
Streamline
permitting
process
for
electric
water
heaters
/
space
heating
systems
Information
services
for
electric
water
heaters/
space
heating
systems
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 28 of 124
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Tenant
improvement
pathway
Voluntary
retrofit
pathway
Institutional
pathway
Time
of
sale
pathway
NG-‐COMM-‐1
&
NG-‐
COMM-‐2
Commercial
water
heating
/
space
heating
-‐
fuel
switch
Information
and
outreach
related
to
tenant
improvement
building
permits
Require
electrification
as
part
of
all
water
heaters
/
space
heating
system
retrofit
projects
Voluntary
program
(e.g.,
incentives,
checklists,
expedited
permitting,
reduced
fees)
for
electrification
of
space
and
water
heating
equipment
Develop
utility
program
for
electric
water
heater/gas
heating
system
replacements
Evaluate
replacement
rates.
Increase
incentives
for
electric
water/space
heating
systems
if
needed
Streamline
permitting
process
for
electric
water
heaters
/
space
heating
systems
Education
and
outreach
to
vendors,
landlords,
real
estate
community
Develop
voluntary
time-‐of-‐sale
requirement
for
energy
upgrades
Develop
mandatory
time-‐of-‐sale
requirement
for
energy
upgrades
Work
with
local
distributors
and
contractors
to
implement
upstream
programs
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Green
gas
pathway
Implementation
of
voluntary
"Palo
Alto
Green
Gas"
program
Assess
costs
of
carbon
offsets
and
biogas
for
all
natural
gas
usage
in
the
community
Infrastructure
pathway
Financing
and
rates
pathway
N-‐OFF-‐1
and
NG-‐
INF-‐1
Green
gas,
offsets
and
new
utility
business
model
to
support
carbon
neutrality
Purchase
of
carbon
offsets
and/or
biogas
with
goal
of
100%
by
2020
implement
study
of
natural
gas
distribution
system
and
impacts
of
reduced
natural
gas
consumption
Develop
roadmap
for
staged/planned
reductions
in
specific
areas
of
the
city
(which
neighborhoods
are
likely
to
be
most
impacted/early
adopters)
Actively
manage
reductions
in
natural
gas
delivery
Restructure
natural
gas
&
electricity
rates
to
support
fuel
switching
to
electricity
Assess
appropriate
restructuring
of
natural
gas
and
electricity
rates
for
electrification
Continue
to
support
policy
and
long
term
planning
for
restructuring
gas
utility
that
will
minimize
financial
risks
to
rate
payers
or
bond-‐holders
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 29 of 124
APPENDIX
E
–
S/CAP
Wedge
Chart
Details
The S/CAP represents conservative estimates of costs and GHG reduction potential, particularly
related to cost curves associated with electric vehicles, and solar PV pricing. Furthermore, GHG
potential associated with Mobility as a Service is conservative due to lack of data.
In this section, we describe the range of S/CAP strategies analysed in support of Appendix C wedge
charts for 2025, 2030 and 2050.
Transportation
Levers,
Strategies
and
Actions
A suite of transportation related levers and strategies were considered as part of the three scenario
analyses.
T-FAC-1: Expand bicycle network and infrastructure
This strategy focuses on leveraging the Palo Alto Bicycle and Pedestrian Transportation Plan, to
support the City in meeting a goal of doubling the rate of bicycling for both local and total work
commutes to 15% and 5%, respectively, by 2020. The S/CAP project assessed additional targets
associated with specific actions to evaluate the potential greenhouse gas emissions savings for 2025,
2030 and 2050.
Actions modeled:
¥ Convert all class II bike lanes to protected bike lanes (PBL)
¥ Increase bike boulevard mileage from 22-32 miles
¥ Expand bike share to 28 stations per square mile (currently 5 stations citywide)
T-FAC-2: Expand transit facilities and services
This strategy identifies transit agency expansion and improvement plans under way, associated
opportunities to improve service frequency, speed, reliability and capacity. However, to implement
these transit expansion strategies, the key action of the City is to collaborate with neighboring
jurisdictions in Santa Clara County and along the entire San Francisco Peninsula to advocate for major
public investment in transit service and infrastructure and to define these projects in a way that
maximizes future capacity, ridership, convenience, reliability and frequency of service.
Actions modeled:
¥ Achieving the Caltrain modernization ridership rates targeted in 2040
¥ Expand SamTrans, VTA and Palo Alto shuttle ridership by 200%
¥ El Camino Real and Dumbarton Bus Rapid Transit
T-FAC-3: Facilitate shared transport options
This strategy focuses on facilitating the use of shared travel options, including transportation network
companies (TNCs) for conventional carpooling as well as dynamic ridesharing particularly along the US
101 corridor and for first mile/last mile travel options.
Actions modeled:
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 30 of 124
¥ Dynamic ridesharing based on San Francisco casual carpool rates, with Palo Alto share
proportionate to Palo Alto Caltrain ridership
¥ Actions include designating curb space for rideshare/carpool pick-up and drop-off downtown,
and at Caltrain Stations.
T-INC-1: Provide universal transit access
Beginning in 2014, the City of Palo Alto offered a free Caltrain Go-Pass to all of its benefits-eligible
employees working at downtown locations. As a condition of development, the City of Palo Alto
currently requires developers of selected properties to purchases Caltrain Go-Passes for all full-time
employees of tenants. The new Palo Alto Transportation Management Association is working on a bulk-
discount VTA eco-pass program for downtown employees. This strategy assumes additional significant
and widespread adoption of a universal transit pass including all transit agency programs (Caltrain Go-
Pass, SamTrans Way2GoPass, and VTA EcoPass).
Actions modeled :
¥ Expanded Universal Transit Pass (UTP) - Caltrain GoPass, SamTrans Way2GoPass, and VTA
Ecopass, for all residents and employees
T-INC-2: Utilize parking pricing and management
The price and availability of parking at one’s destination is a key factor in travel mode choice, with
free on-street parking and required off-street parking (i.e., parking minimums) creating an effective
subsidy for travel by cars. This strategy focuses on actions such as unbundling parking costs from
lease/sale of commercial and residential units, adopting on-street parking vacancy target, monitoring
occupancy and availability of on-street parking regularly, and requiring employers to offer the option
of receiving transportation benefits instead of parking benefits (e.g., parking cash-out, or feebate
program).
Actions modeled:
¥ All employment sites institute parking pricing, parking cash-out, parking feebate equivalent to
market price of parking
¥ Full cost pricing of residential and commercial parking (unbundling or eliminating minimum
parking requirements)
T-LU-1: Pursue jobs-housing balance
Understanding that land use and jobs-housing balance can be controversial issues, this strategy was
included to better understand the potential impact of a more balanced ratio of jobs and housing with
the City. The California Department of Finance considers a 1.5 jobs-to-housing ratio to be desirable.
As such, the S/CAP project including analysis of “what it would take” to achieve this type of balance in
Palo Alto. Infill growth in specific areas of Palo Alto was explored, in addition to potential new housing
through “backyard cottage” and other types of accessory dwelling units.
Actions modeled:
¥ Target jobs-housing balance of 1.44 with growth in specific areas (e.g., Stanford Research
Park, downtown core, Stanford Shopping Center, etc), by developing mixed use and higher
density in targeted areas.
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 31 of 124
T-EV-1: Convert vehicles to electric vehicles
In addition to reducing vehicle-miles traveled, reducing the carbon content of vehicle fuels is an
another important strategy for overall reductions in transportation emissions. Electric vehicle
technology continues to improve rapidly, with significant uptake regionally and in Palo Alto. This
strategy was assessed for the GHG impact of different rates of adoption of electric vehicles.
Actions modeled:
¥ Increased target electric vehicle adoption rates through incentives, bulk purchase programs
and expanded electric vehicle charging infrastructure
Natural
Gas
Levers,
Strategies
and
Actions
A suite of natural gas related levers and strategies were considered as part of the scenario analysis.
NG-RES-1: Electrify residential water heating
For existing homes, identify and implement actions to reduce fuel switching costs, require upgrades at
key leverage points (e.g., time-of-sale and/or major renovation) and make it easy for the community
to find appropriate products for their needs.
Actions modeled:
¥ Increased target adoption of electrification of water heaters in homes
NG-RES-2: Electrify residential space heating
For existing homes, identify and implement actions to reduce fuel switching costs from furnaces to
electric technologies (e.g., air source heat pumps), require upgrades at key leverage points (e.g.,
time-of-sale) and make it easy for the community to find appropriate products for their needs.
Actions modeled:
¥ Increased adoption of electric technologies for heating homes
NG-COMM-1: Electrify commercial water heating
This strategy focused on the estimated GHG emissions savings potential of electrifying commercial
water heating. The S/CAP project assumed that small commercial buildings have a gas storage tank
water heater that would be replaced by an air source heat pump water heater. We also assumed that
of large commercial buildings with gas boilers would be replaced with solar hot water and electric
resistance heating.
Actions modeled:
¥ Increased adoption of electrification of water heating in commercial buildings
NG-COMM-2: Electrify commercial space heating
This strategy focused on the estimated GHG emissions savings potential of electrifying commercial
space heating. The S/CAP project assumed that small commercial buildings had gas-pack furnaces
that would be replaced by a packaged heat pump heater. This also assumes that large commercial
buildings have gas boilers that would be replaced with heat recovery chillers.
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 32 of 124
Actions modeled:
¥ Increased adoption of electrification of space heating in commercial buildings
NG-COOK-1: Electrify commercial cooking
Commercial cooking equipment is notoriously inefficient, with additional challenges associated with
“user experience” and impacts on final product that need to be considered in retrofitting with electric
equipment. For the purposes of this S/CAP analysis, this strategy focused on opportunities to replace
gas cooking equipment with electric cooking equipment in restaurants currently using gas cooking
equipment by the target year. Cooking equipment considered include combination ovens, convection
ovens, fryers, griddles, steamers, and induction ranges.
Actions modeled:
¥ Increased adoption of electric cooking equipment in commercial food service
NG-GAS-1: Eliminate natural gas use through zero net energy new construction
Natural gas usage in the new construction (and major remodels) must be reduced in addition to
existing buildings. This strategy focuses on restrictions on natural gas usage in the new construction
sector being tied to California's zero net energy goals. Specifically, this analysis assumed that certain
percentages of new commercial construction and new residential construction are built to a net zero
standard - relying on rooftop PV to provide 100% of energy needs and relying on air source heat
pumps and heat pump hot water heater to provide all space and water heating needs.
Actions modeled:
¥ Increased adoption of zero net energy buildings ahead of state targets with all-electric
buildings
NG-OFF-1: Purchase carbon offsets
This strategy would move from the voluntary City of Palo Alto Utilities GreenGas Program to buy
offsets or credits to immediately make the entire natural gas supply carbon neutral in Palo Alto. Then
focus on designing and implementing strategies for fuel switching, efficiency and policy drivers to
move away from natural gas. As part of this strategy, Palo Alto would explore the allocation of
purchased offsets to fund local GHG reduction initiatives.
Actions modeled:
¥ Purchase carbon offsets2
NG-OFF-2: Procure biogas
An alternative to carbon offsets is to procure biogas instead of fossil fuel-based natural gas supply.
This was previously assessed by City of Palo Alto Utilities with costs found to be prohibitive. This
2
The
quality
of
carbon
offsets
varies
significantly
in
the
market.
Our
analysis
assumed
high
quality
offset
products
like
Green-‐e
climate
certified
carbon
offsets.
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 33 of 124
strategy is included in the analysis as an option, but due to cost considerations and supply constraints,
was not selected in the proposed scenarios.
Actions modeled:
¥ Procure biogas as a carbon neutral gas supply
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 34 of 124
APPENDIX
F
–
Climate
Adaptation
and
Vulnerability
Analysis
The objective of the City of Palo Alto Vulnerability Analysis and Adaptation Roadmap (Adaptation
Roadmap) is to examine a broad spectrum of the community’s potential climate change vulnerabilities
and prioritize adaptation responses based on the greatest risks, needs, and synergies with related
planning efforts. The Adaptation Roadmap is meant to guide adaptation planning by identifying
important City-owned and community assets that are vulnerable to climate change impacts, assessing
the risk that climate change poses to those assets, and recommending response actions that the City
should integrate into its planning efforts to mitigate that risk. The overall goal is to establish a
stronger framework for gathering data, making decisions, and prioritizing actions that will improve the
City’s resilience to climate change over time.
The Adaptation Roadmap assesses vulnerabilities for the following eleven functional categories of
community assets, which include City-owned or operated facilities deemed critical for operations,
utility services, and risk management, and other assets that are important to community health,
safety, and well-being:
1. Emergency Response and Communications
2. Energy Security and Infrastructure
3. Water Security and Supply Infrastructure
4. Wastewater Management
5. Stormwater Management
6. Transportation Infrastructure
7. Shoreline Flood Management
8. Public Health
9. Buildings and Property
10. Solid Waste/Hazardous Materials Management
11. Natural Areas/Ecosystems
Palo Alto’s greatest risks related to climate change are a product of the City’s bayside setting, the
inherent sensitivities of its Mediterranean climate, and its dependence on imported water from the
distant Sierra Nevada mountains as its primary water supply. Some of the City’s critical utility
infrastructure, including the Regional Water Quality Control Plant and the Utility Control Center, is
located in a flood basin or in close proximity to the low-lying shoreline where risk of damage or
disruption from sea level rise is significant. Climate change is expected to bring hotter and drier
summers and winter storms that are predicted to be fewer in number but higher in intensity. These
changes can stress natural habitats and public health while posing a potentially serious risk to the
long-term reliability of the City’s potable water supply and hydroelectric supply. Based on this study,
the City-owned and community assets at highest risk from climate change by the year 2100 include
the following:
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 35 of 124
1. Property and infrastructure located in areas along the Bay shore prone to coastal flooding,
including the areas east of Highway 101, where the RWQCP, Municipal Services Center,
Utilities Control Center, Utilities Engineering Center and the Palo Alto Airport are located.
Current levees are not designed to protect these assets from sea level rise;
2. The City’s long-term potable water supply, which is largely dependent on runoff from the
Sierra Nevada Mountains, especially during dry years;
3. The City’s hydroelectric supply, which is vulnerable to a reduction in Sierra mountain
snowpack;
4. Road transportation assets including streets and highway approaches which are located in
flood-prone areas along the Bay shore;
5. The health and well-being of the most vulnerable of the City’s residential populations, and its
natural inhabitants (flora and fauna), which can experience severe stress from extreme heat,
drought and extreme precipitation events.
Palo Alto is already engaged in multiple planning efforts that address some or all of these risks, but
the Adaptation Roadmap represents the City’s first broadly coordinated effort to identify and document
vulnerabilities across a broad range of community assets and assess the risk of climate-related
impacts to those assets over near-term (to 2050) and longer-term (to 2100) planning horizons.
Coastal Flooding
Adaptation strategies for sea level rise should be woven into a comprehensive vision for the Bay shore
that addresses climate change along with other issues including water quality, the protection of the
Baylands ecology, public access and recreation. Many of the shoreline adaptation challenges faced by
Palo Alto arise from decades of managing stormwater, water supply, and flood protection as separate
systems rather than using an integrated approach incorporating broad stakeholder engagement,
multi-objective planning, and vulnerability assessment that recognizes the dependencies and
relationships between systems and the potential for exacerbating risk of failure to critical assets.
Moreover, much of the shoreline infrastructure, including levees, flood control facilities and waste
water treatment plants, is more than 50 years old, built in the Clean Water Act era when federal and
state grants covered most costs. Even though concerns about maintaining the area’s infrastructure
have been growing for decades, a commensurate increase in funding has not occurred. Beyond the
price tag, the regulatory and institutional challenges of doing multi-benefit projects remain
substantial. Most clean water regulations, flood control specifications, and Bay fill policies were written
20-50 years ago, when conditions were quite different than they are today or what they are projected
to be in the future.
Retreating from rising seas is inherently difficult in areas where the shoreline has been developed,
presenting enormous societal and political challenges that are likely to generate decades-long debates.
Strategies that focus on strengthening or maintaining the existing levee alignment can buy time for
much harder decisions to be made. The current Strategy to Advance Flood protection, Ecosystems and
Recreation along the Bay (SAFER Bay) project, focused on the San Francisquito Creek, is planning
improvements to existing coastal levees while also examining asset re-location, real estate easements,
and horizontal levees. Innovative approaches, like using horizontal levees to restore protective
marshes and integrate ecosystem restoration with management of wastewater, sediment and flooding
are promising for Palo Alto but require more study and can be stymied by current regulations. In
general, regulation needs to evolve along with adaptation strategies, continuing to protect the
environment and natural habitats but allowing room for innovation and response actions as the
environment changes over the next century and beyond. There are lessons to be learned from
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 36 of 124
international experience, such as the coastal armoring approaches used by the Dutch, but the
ecological, political and cultural landscape of the Bay is quite different from other places, and
appropriate adaptation strategies are highly dependent on local geomorphology and ecology, the
assets at risk, the appetite for risk, and the resources available.
Water Supply
The City’s current water supply is highly vulnerable to drought, but the risk of failure is uncertain. The
City is dependent on City and County of San Francisco’s Regional Water System (RWS), operated by
San Francisco Public Utilities Commission (SFPUC), for the bulk of its long-term water supply. During
periods of extended drought, the ability of SFPUC to supply its wholesale customers (including City of
Palo Alto) is at risk, though SFPUC has reported as recently as 2009 that it does not consider its
regional supply to be at significant risk from climate change through the year 2030. However,
California’s current drought, now in its fourth year, is putting added emphasis on long-term water
security and forcing public agencies to redouble conservation efforts and expand contingency
planning. Accordingly, SFPUC and the City of Palo Alto are increasing efforts to improve conservation,
upgrade storage and delivery systems, and diversify local water supplies.
Hydropower
Long-term changes in precipitation patterns caused by climate change represent significant risk to the
availability of hydropower for the City, due to expected higher incidence of severe droughts, loss of
Sierra snowpack, and wildfires. These climate perturbations will lead to additional stresses on the
State’s energy system and the reliability of power to the City. As a result, energy resiliency will
become increasingly critical to the City and its utility. The City long term plan for managing energy
supplies needs well consider measures around islanding, smart grid, local generation, energy storage
and redundant transmission lines.
The MSC, UCC, and Utility Engineering Center, which are all critical to energy operations, face
moderate risk from sea level rise by 2050 and significant risk from sea level rise by 2100. Plans should
be established to protect these assets, relocate them, or establish redundant operational capabilities in
case these facilities become incapacitated during a flooding event.
Critical Transportation Assets
Highway 101 (Bayshore Freeway), the Palo Alto Airport, and surface streets in the Palo Alto floodplain
are all at significant risk from sea level rise by the year 2100. Current levees are not likely to
adequately protect these assets from sea level rise; the Strategy to Advance Flood protection,
Ecosystems and Recreation along the Bay (SAFER Bay) project is planning improvements to these
levees. As an intermediate measure, the City should develop contingency plans for temporary loss of
these assets.
Many roads and highways in the foothills are in high risk zones for wildfires by the year 2100. The
vulnerability of these assets should be better defined, along with consequences of failure and
contingency plans in the event they become damaged or inaccessible.
Vulnerable Populations
The City’s most vulnerable populations (elderly, low-income and health-compromised residents) face
significant risk from extreme heat events by 2100. These populations will also face higher risk of
health problems from worsening air quality and new disease vectors. The City has an important role,
in partnership with public agencies and community based organizations, to educate and engage the
public on climate change issues, and to promote community involvement in actions to reduce climate
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 37 of 124
change risks, using linguistically and culturally appropriate approaches that are effective for diverse
populations.
Summary
Palo Alto, like many cities in the Bay Area, is generally aware of the risks it faces from climate change,
but is faced with a dearth of “actionable science” and cost-benefit studies on which to rely for critical
decision-making. It is difficult to know how to best apply limited resources when there are so many
competing demands for City budgets and staff time. Climate change is inherently complex and its
predictions are fraught with uncertainty, adding to the difficulty of building stakeholder consensus to
take action. The Adaptation Roadmap provides a compendium of current plans, studies, policies, and
actions that are relevant to the City’s adaptation planning efforts and provides a framework for
making informed decisions on how to best focus resources going forward to increase the City’s
resilience to an uncertain future.
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 38 of 124
Method
The methodology used to develop the Palo Alto Adaptation Roadmap is derived from the California
Climate Adaptation Planning Guide3 (CCAPG), which recommends a sequence of nine steps in
developing strategies to address climate change impacts (see Figure 2.1): (1) assess exposure to
climate change impacts; (2) assess community sensitivity to the exposure; (3) assess potential
impacts; (4) evaluate existing community capacity to adapt to anticipated impacts; (5) evaluate risk
and onset, meaning the certainty of the projections and speed at which they may occur; (6) set
priorities for adaptation needs; (7) identify strategies; (8) evaluate and setting priorities for
strategies; and (9) establish phasing and implementation.
The first five steps (colored gray) in Figure 2.1 represent the vulnerability assessment, while steps 6
through 9 represent strategy development. The vulnerability assessment helps determine the potential
impacts of climate change on community assets and populations. Understanding the extent, potential
severity, and likelihood of those impacts enables a community to develop climate adaptation policies
and programs to increase resilience to climate change (steps 6 through 9).
Figure 2.1 - The nine steps in adaptation planning development (from CCAPG)
3
California
Emergency
Management
Agency
and
California
Natural
Resources
Agency,
2012.
California
Adaptation
Planning
Guide.
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 39 of 124
Setting
Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions forecasts underlie predictions of future climate change and
assessments of potential exposure to climate change impacts. The following passage is extracted from
Climate Chapter of the 2013 San Francisco Bay Area Integrated Regional Water Management Plan4
(IRWMP):
Two GHG emissions scenarios have been commonly used in recent planning documents for California.
Scenario A2 (Medium–High Emissions) assumes higher GHG emissions and high growth in population
and represents a more competitive world that lacks cooperation in sustainable development (similar to
“business as usual”), while B1 (Lower Emissions) is a lower GHG emission scenario that represents
social consensus and action for sustainable development. Generally, the B1 scenario might be most
appropriately viewed as an optimistic “best case” or “policy” scenario for emissions that will require
4
Kennedy
Jenks
Consultants
(with
Environmental
Science
Associates),
2013,
San
Francisco
Bay
Area
Integrated
Regional
Water
Management
Plan.
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 40 of 124
fundamental shifts in global policy, while A2 is more of a status quo scenario reflecting real-world
conditions incorporating incremental improvements and may be the more realistic choice for decision-
makers to use for climate adaptation planning. To date, actual global emissions have more closely
tracked, and even exceeded, the A2 scenario put forth in 2000.
Climate change assessments are performed using the output of computer models that project future
conditions utilizing GHG emission scenarios as input. These models are not predictive, but provide
projections of potential future climate scenarios that can be used for planning purposes. The primary
climate variables projected by global climate models (GCMs) that are important for water resources
planning in California are changes in air temperature, changes in precipitation patterns, and sea-level
rise. A set of six GCMs were run for the two GHG emissions scenarios, A2 and B1, and downscaled to
locations in California. The six GCM models used were:
1. National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Parallel Climate Model (PCM)
2. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluids Dynamic
Laboratory (GFDL) model
3. French Centre National de Researches Meterologiques CNRM3 model
4. NCAR CCSM3 model
5. German MPI ECHAMS model
6. Japanese MIROC3.2 (medium-resolution) model
Based on historical simulations, the selected models are capable of producing a reasonable
representation of California’s seasonal precipitation and temperature, variability of annual
precipitation, and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation.5
Statewide Climate Change Projections
All of the models show increased warming throughout the 21st century, with average annual air
temperature increasing about 2ºF to 5ºF by 2050. The Mediterranean seasonal precipitation pattern is
expected to continue during the 21st century, with most of the precipitation occurring during winter
from North Pacific storms. The hydro-climate (hydrology and weather) is expected to be influenced by
the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) with alternating
periods of wet and dry water years. In the Sierra Nevada Mountains, there will be some shift to more
winter precipitation occurring as rain instead of snow, with a reduction in snowpack accumulation and
shifts in runoff patterns, especially during the summer and fall. By 2050, scientists project a loss of at
least 25% of the Sierra snowpack.6
Bay Area Region Climate Change Projections
Temperature
5
Cayan,
Tyree,
and
Iacobellis,
2012.
Climate
Change
Scenarios
for
the
San
Francisco
Region.
California
Energy
Commission
Publication
No.
CEC-‐
500-‐2012-‐042.
6
California
Department
of
Water
Resources,
2014.
Climate
Change.
www.water.ca.gov/climatechange/
,
accessed
March
10,
2014).
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 41 of 124
The historical average annual temperature in the San Francisco Bay Area region is 56.8ºF (13.8ºC).
Overall average air temperatures in the SF Bay Area are expected to rise 2.7ºF (1.5ºC) between 2000
and 2050 regardless of the GHG emissions scenario, but the A2 and B1 scenarios project increases of
10.8ºF (6ºC) and 3.6ºF (2ºC), respectively, by the end of the 21st century. The temperature
projections begin to deviate between the A2 and B1 scenarios around mid-century, with the A2
scenario increase about twice the B1 scenario by 2100. Precipitation in the San Francisco Bay Area
region is essentially all due to rain, and significant shifts in the timing of precipitation are not expected
to occur.7 The SF Bay Area is likely to continue with a Mediterranean climate of cool wet winters and
hot dry summers. Possible changes in precipitation projected by the GCMs are uncertain in part due to
the highly variable precipitation that California experiences on an annual and decadal time scale. Up to
the year 2050 annual precipitation changes produce mixed results; however there is an indication that
conditions will be drier than the historical average in the second half of the century. Looking at
averaged projections by month, it is possible to identify greater reductions in precipitation in March
and April while November, December and January may remain relatively unchanged. While average
conditions may be drier the expectation is that more intense downpours will occur during a somewhat
shorter rainy season.
Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Flooding
Sea-level rise is expected to increase the risk of coastal erosion and flooding along the California
coast, and higher water levels due to sea-level rise could magnify the adverse impact of storm surges
and high waves. Impacts to assets from extreme high tides in addition to net increases in sea level will
likely result in increased inundation frequency, extents, and depths leading to catastrophic flooding
and coastal erosion. Understanding the extent, depth and duration of inundation and the patterns of
erosion will be necessary for characterizing infrastructure vulnerability in coastal areas. The picture is
further complicated by the concurrent vertical movement of the land due to tectonic activity.
Projections of the relative sea level, the sum of both sea level rise and vertical land movement, are
therefore important in the San Francisco Bay area.
Sea level has been measured at the Presidio tide gauge in San Francisco since 1854, with a recorded
rise in relative sea level of 7.6 inches (19.3 cm) over the last 100 years.8 Present sea-level rise
projections suggest that the rate of global sea level rise in the 21st century can be expected to be
much higher.
California, via the Ocean Protection Council, (OPC, 20139), has adopted the San Francisco Bay region
sea level rise projections from the National Research Council (NRC, 201210), which includes an
allowance for vertical land motion. For the Bay Area, this study projects 11 inches of sea level rise by
2050 (with a range of 5 to 24 inches) and 36 inches by 2100 (with a range of 17 to 66 inches by
2100.
7
Cayan,
Tyree,
and
Iacobellis,
2012.
8
National
Research
Council,
2012.
Sea-‐Level
Rise
for
the
Coasts
of
California,
Oregon,
and
Washington:
Past,
Present,
and
Future.
Washington,
DC:
The
National
Academies
Press.
http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=13389
.
9
State
of
California
Ocean
Protection
Council,
State
of
California
Sea-‐Level
Rise
Guidance
Document,
March
2013
update.
10
National
Research
Council
(NRC),
2012.
Sea-‐Level
Rise
for
the
Coasts
of
California,
Oregon,
and
Washington:
Past,
Present,
and
Future.
http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=13389
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 42 of 124
Summary
of
Current
Relevant
Planning
Initiatives
ESA staff met with City staff from the Palo Alto Department of Public Works and Office of Emergency
Services to review critical facilities and functions, and to discuss perceived vulnerabilities and adaptive
capacity to climate change impacts. ESA also reviewed the most relevant planning initiatives and
documents related to climate change adaptation planning for the City of Palo Alto. Findings and results
are summarized below.
City
of
Palo
Alto
Comprehensive
Plan
The City of Palo Alto Comprehensive Plan, the primary tool for guiding preservation and development
in Palo Alto, was last updated from 1998 to 2002. It is currently being revised to bring all the Plan
Elements up to date, address changing demographic, economic and environmental conditions, and
look forward to 2030. The Current Comprehensive Plan Land Use Map and a City Structure map
showing the City’s neighborhoods and commercial centers (Figures 8.3 and 8.4, respectively, from the
Draft Existing Conditions Report for the Palo Alto Comprehensive Plan Update11) are included in
Appendix A.
Existing
Natural
Environment
Element
The Natural Environment Element of the existing Comprehensive Plan addresses the management of
open land and natural resources in Palo Alto and the protection of life and property from natural
hazards. Many of its goals pertain to protecting and conserving Palo Alto’s natural resources, natural
habitat areas, and the urban forest to provide ecological, economic, and aesthetic benefits for Palo
Alto. Its wide-ranging policies cover the use of open space for the preservation of natural resources,
the management of natural resources, outdoor recreation, public health and safety, creeks and
riparian areas, wetlands, the urban forest, water resources, wildlife, air quality, hazardous materials,
solid waste disposal, and energy. It also includes public safety policies for reducing exposure to
natural hazards like earthquakes and fires.
The City’s major open spaces are in the foothills, including the 1,400-acre Foothill Park, 2,200 acres of
Montebello Open Space Preserve, the 610-acre Arastradero Preserve, and 200 acres of Los Trancos
Open Space Preserve. Foothill and Arastradero Parks are owned and operated by the City, while
Montebello and Los Trancos are operated by the Mid-Peninsula Open Space District.
Other open spaces in the foothills are owned by Stanford University, the Palo Alto Hills Golf and
Country Club, and numerous private landowners. Approximately 477 acres of the City’s privately
owned open space is restricted by the Williamson Act, a State program that creates tax incentives for
keeping property in agricultural or open space use. The Williamson Act properties include cattle
grazing lands, orchards, and a Christmas tree farm. Approximately 149 acres are considered to be
prime farmland.
Along the San Francisco Bay shoreline, open space is contained in what is generally called the Palo
Alto baylands. This multi-use area of about 2,100 acres includes the John Fletcher Byxbee Recreation
Area, the Palo Alto Municipal Golf Course, the Baylands Athletic Center, the Palo Alto Landfill (part of
which has been closed and converted into Byxbee Park), a flood control basin, and several natural salt
marshes. The area contains a number of low impact recreational facilities, including hiking and
bicycling trails and a boardwalk. It also includes the Lucy Evans Baylands Nature Interpretive Center,
a small picnic area, and a sailing station open to windsurfers, kayakers, and small sailboats. Most of
11
City
of
Palo
Alto,
2014,
Draft
Existing
Conditions
Report:
Population,
Housing
and
Employment.
http://www.paloaltocompplan.org/resources/draft-‐existing-‐conditions-‐report/
,
accessed
December
22,
2014.
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 43 of 124
the area consists of passive open space, including a duck pond and bird sanctuary, restored salt
marshes, the Emily Renzel Freshwater Marsh, and some of the most extensive salt marsh and mudflat
habitats remaining in the Bay Area.
Locations of parks and open spaces are shown on the Land Use map and the City’s Open Space and
Water Bodies map (Figure 3.3 from the Draft Existing Conditions Report for the Palo Alto
Comprehensive Plan Update12) included in Appendix A.
Updated
Natural
and
Urban
Environment
and
Safety
Element
The Draft Natural and Urban Environment and Safety Element13 of the Comprehensive Plan update
includes new sections on Climate Change and Adaptation (N2) and Safety and Emergency
Management (N8). The Planning and Transportation Commission has recommended changes to the
goals, policies, and programs of the Natural and Urban Environment and Safety Element that are still
going through a public review process. If those recommendations are accepted and adopted by the
City Council in the context of the ongoing Comprehensive Plan Update, there would be a new vision
statement and policies as indicated below.
New vision statement: Palo Alto shall preserve its ecosystems, including its open space, creeks,
habitats, and air quality while working towards a sustainable urban environment of urban forests,
water quality, waste disposal reduction, emergency preparedness, community safety and a plan for
climate change mitigation.
New Policy N2.5: The City shall monitor changes to sea level, temperatures, wildfire risk, and other
potential changes, taking advantage of state and federal information, and use that information to
adapt to the effects of climate change.
¥ N2.5.1 PROGRAM Prepare a Climate Adaptation Strategy to serve as a companion document to
the Climate Protection Plan and identify the ways in which Palo Alto can respond to the
predicted changes to its physical environment associated with climate change.
New Policy N2.6: Include in the Capital Improvement Program (CIP) five year plan a priority for
infrastructure improvements that address adaptation of critical facilities to climate change.
New Policy N8.1: Facilitate ongoing public education and awareness to prevent loss of life and
property from impacts of natural and man-made disasters.
¥ N8.1.1 PROGRAM Initiate public education programs strongly encouraging that each household
in the City be prepared to be self-sufficient for at least 72 hours after a major earthquake,
flood, terrorism, pandemic or other major disasters. (Previous Program N-82)
¥ N8.1.2 PROGRAM Continue to implement the Emergency Services Volunteer program and
encourage residents and employees to participate in citywide emergency drills and other
public education activities.
12
City
of
Palo
Alto,
2014,
Draft
Existing
Conditions
Report:
Biological
Resources.
http://www.paloaltocompplan.org/resources/draft-‐existing-‐
conditions-‐report/
,
accessed
December
22,
2014.
13
City
of
Palo
Alto,
2014,Comprehensive
Plan
Update,
Draft
Natural
and
Urban
Environment
and
Safety
Element;
http://www.paloaltocompplan.org/plan-‐contents/natural-‐environment-‐element/
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 44 of 124
Policy N8.2: Focus efforts to reduce exposure to natural hazards in those areas of the City where
greatest risks exist.
New Policy N8.7: Monitor and respond to the risk of wild land fire hazards caused by climate change.
¥ N8.7.1 PROGRAM Consider implementation of CAL FIRE recommended programs in educating
and involving the local community to diminish potential loss caused by wildfire and identify
prevention measures to reduce those risks.
Utilities
and
Service
Systems
The Draft Existing Conditions Report: Utilities And Service Systems14 for the Comprehensive Plan
update provides background information on the City’s extensive utility services, which include water
supply and distribution, electricity and natural gas service, collection and treatment of waste water at
the Regional Water Quality Control Plant (RWQCP), collection and management of stormwater,
collection/recycling/disposal of solid waste, and fiber optics communications. These are all essential
services that play vital roles in the economic development and quality of life of the community and are
critical for maintaining public health.
Water
Supply
Although the Draft Existing Conditions Report contains much of the same information that is provided
in the City’s 2010 Urban Water Management Plan (discussed later in this section) regarding water
supply and conservation, the following two paragraphs from the Report represent additional
information:
BAWSCA is developing the Long-Term Reliable Water Supply Strategy (Strategy) to meet the
projected water needs of its member agencies and their customers through 2035, and to increase
their water supply reliability under normal and drought conditions. The Strategy is proceeding in three
phases. Phase I was completed in 2010 and defined the magnitude of the water supply issue and the
scope of work for the Strategy. Phase II of the Strategy resulted in a refined estimate of when, where,
and how much additional supply reliability and new water supplies are needed throughout the
BAWSCA service area through 2035, as well as a detailed analysis of the water supply management
projects, and the development of the Strategy implementation plan.15 The Final (Phase III) Strategy
Report is planned for completion by December 2014. This report will incorporate the results of
additional work and present the recommended Strategy and the associated Strategy implementation
plan (i.e., who will do what by when). Phase III will include the implementation of specific water
supply management projects. Depending on cost-effectiveness, as well as other considerations, the
projects may be implemented by a single member agency, by a collection of the member agencies, or
by BAWSCA in an appropriate timeframe to meet the identified needs. Project implementation will
continue throughout the Strategy planning horizon, in coordination with the timing and magnitude of
the supply need. The development and implementation of the Strategy will be coordinated with the
BAWCSA member agencies and will be adaptively managed to ensure that the goals of the Strategy,
i.e., increased normal and drought year reliability, are efficiently and cost-effectively being met. The
City is participating in the Strategy and has submitted several potential projects for review.
14
City
of
Palo
Alto,
2014,
Draft
Existing
Conditions
Report:
Utilities
And
Service
Systems.
http://www.paloaltocompplan.org/resources/draft-‐
existing-‐conditions-‐report/
,
accessed
December
8,
2014.
15
Bay
Area
Water
Supply
and
Conservation
Agency
(BAWCSA),
2012.
Phase
II
Long-‐Term
Reliable
Water
Supply
Strategy
Report,
Vol
I.
July
30.
http://bawsca.org/docs/BAWSCA%20PH%20II%20A%20Final%20Report_2012_07_03%20Revised%20073012.pdf
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 45 of 124
The City anticipates these projects will be evaluated during subsequent project phases, but also as
part of several other regional efforts that are simultaneously underway. These efforts include the Palo
Alto RWQCP Long Range Facilities Plan and the SCVWD Water Supply and Infrastructure Master Plan.
The City is actively participating on all of these efforts in conjunction with the BAWSCA study.
Water supply issues related to hydropower generation, and the risks thereto, can be found in Section
7.2.1.
Wastewater
This functional asset category covers Palo Alto’s wastewater collection and treatment infrastructure
including the Regional Water Quality Control Plant (RWQCP) operations, sewerage, and outfalls.
The City of Palo Alto’s Utilities Department (CPAU) provides wastewater collection, with treatment
services provided by the Public Works Department, for the City and its sphere of influence (SOI). The
CPAU oversees a wastewater collection system consisting of over 208 miles of sewer lines, while the
Public Works Department oversees the treatment of approximately 3.4 billion gallons of wastewater
per year.16 Wastewater effluent is routed to the Palo Alto RWQCP, where it is treated prior to
discharge into the San Francisco Bay. In addition to serving the City, the RWQCP serves Mountain
View, East Palo Alto Sanitary District, Stanford University, Los Altos, and Los Altos Hills. Approximately
220,000 people live in the RWQCP service area. Of the wastewater flow to the RWQCP, about 60
percent is estimated to come from residences, 10 percent from industries, and 30 percent from
commercial businesses and institutions. The RWQCP treats 21 million gallons per day of effluent from
all the partner cities.17
The RWQCP is designed to have an average dry weather flow (ADWF) capacity of 39 MGD and an
average wet weather flow capacity of 80 MGD. Average daily flow is 22 MGD. According to the
Background Report, the RWQCP does not experience any major treatment system constraints and
capacity is sufficient for current dry and wet weather loads and for future load projections. There are
no plans for expansion or to “build-out” the plant; however, in 2012 Palo Alto City Council approved a
Long Range Facilities Plan for the RWQCP to ensure capital reinvestment, wastewater treatment
services for six agencies, and ongoing water quality control to protect the San Francisco Bay and local
creeks.
Stormwater
The City owns and maintains a municipal storm drain system consisting of approximately 107 miles of
pipeline and 2,750 catch basins, 800 manholes and 6 pump stations. These improvements are located
within the Palo Alto public road right-of-way. Storm drain systems within private streets or private
development are privately maintained but are permitted to drain into the public system.
The City’s storm drain pipe systems are designed for a 10-year return 6-hour storm event and the
hydrology and hydraulics design criteria conform with Santa Clara County Storm Drainage Manual.
In the upper watershed areas, storm drains flow directly to creeks by gravity, but, due to relatively
flat slopes and low-lying land, much of the lower watershed is pumped to the creeks through one of
the City’s six stormwater pump stations. Figure 4.1, from the Comprehensive Plan update, shows
16
City
of
Palo
Alto,
2014.
Utilities
at
a
Glance.
http://www.cityofpaloalto.org/civicax/filebank/documents/16777
,
accessed
December
8,
2014.
17
City
of
Palo
Alto,
2014,
Draft
Existing
Conditions
Report:
Utilities
And
Service
Systems.
http://www.paloaltocompplan.org/resources/draft-‐
existing-‐conditions-‐report/
,
accessed
December
8,
2014.
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 46 of 124
locations of stormwater pump stations. In 1989, the City Council created a separate enterprise fund to
pay for storm drain maintenance, capital improvements, and stormwater quality programs. The storm
drain fee is collected from each property on the City’s monthly utility bill.
Figure 4.7: Map of City of Palo Alto pump stations
Source: City of Palo Alto Comprehensive Plan Existing Conditions Report18
The storm drain system is separated into four watershed areas, with the storm drains within an area
discharging into one of four local creeks: San Francisquito Creek, Matadero Creek, Barron Creek, or
Adobe Creek. San Franciscquito Creek drains unimpeded into San Francisco Bay. The other three
creeks drain into the Palo Alto Flood Basin (PAFB). The PAFB was constructed in 1956 to provide
storage capacity for creek discharges. The Flood Basin is separated from the Bay by levees and tide
gates to block the propagation of high tides into the Basin, thereby preserving storage capacity for
creek discharge even during high tides. The tide gates are controlled by the Santa Clara Valley Water
District. A map of the San Francisquito Creek and Baylands is provided in Appendix B, showing the
location of the PAFB and its relationship with surrounding land uses.
Several sections of the City of Palo Alto Municipal Code pertain to stormwater management and
protecting water quality related to storm events. In particular, Palo Alto’s Flood Hazard Regulations
Ordinance (Palo Alto Municipal Code Chapter 16.52) is designed to minimize loss of life, damage to
private land development, public facilities and utilities, the need for rescue and relief efforts, business
interruptions, and future blighted areas caused by flooding. The ordinance was adopted in order to
comply with the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). It ensures that property owners construct
new and substantially-improved buildings in the Special Flood Hazard Area in a manner that protect
the improvements from flood damage. The City Engineer is responsible for enforcing this ordinance,
which includes methods and provisions to control the alteration of natural floodplains, stream
channels, and protective barriers; to control filling, grading, dredging and other development that can
increase flood damage; to regulate the construction of flood barriers which can divert flood waters or
18
City
of
Palo
Alto,
2014,
Draft
Existing
Conditions
Report:
Utilities
and
Service
Systems.
http://www.paloaltocompplan.org/resources/draft-‐
existing-‐conditions-‐report/
,
accessed
December
22,
2014.
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 47 of 124
increase flood hazards in other areas; and to require that uses vulnerable to floods be protected
against flood damage at the time of their construction. This ordinance has special regulations for new
development within a coastal high hazard area.
City
Utility
Energy
Planning
The City’s Utilities department is responsible for energy planning and procurement of natural gas and
electricity commodities for use by residents and businesses within city limits. This includes Stanford
Shopping Center and Stanford Medical Center, but excludes Stanford University.
Natural
Gas
The City’s natural gas supply policy is provided by the Gas Utility Long Term Plan (GULP). The key
objectives of the GULP are to provide market price, lower delivered gas cost over the long term,
promote the deployment of all feasible, reliable, cost-effective energy efficiency measures, reduce the
carbon intensity of the gas portfolio, and a reasonable cost, protect the City’s interests and maintain
access to transportation on par with PG&E’s core customers. Because of its small size, and more
aggressive gas main replacement program, the gas utility’s costs have been around 25% higher than
neighboring PG&E costs. PG&E is raising its costs of distribution as a result of its increased focus on
safety and main replacements.
As of July 2012, the Utility transitioned its purchasing strategy to market price-based, monthly-
adjusted gas supply rates by designing monthly-adjusted gas supply rate; revising the reserve
guidelines for Council approval; and conducting customer communication and outreach.
Simultaneously, the City is pursuing possible below‐market assets available through the Gas
Transportation and Storage Settlement by evaluating the pipeline capacity reservation options
available and by contracting with PG&E for any pipeline capacity with an estimated cost below the
forecasted market value. The City has also developed a Council-directed work stream to meet the gas
efficiency targets through the evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of electrification (substituting gas-
using appliances for electricity-using appliances) and incorporating cost-effective substitution
measures in the implementation plan to meet the gas efficiency targets.
Three major interstate natural gas pipelines operated by PG&E transect Palo Alto. One of them is
placed in a relatively low-lying area that runs along Highway 101. The City maintains four delivery
“gate” stations where the city receives gas from PG&E transmission system.
Electricity
The policy for electric supply for the City is managed through the Long-term Electricity Acquisition Plan
(LEAP). The objectives of LEAP are to meet customer electricity needs through the acquisition of least
total cost energy and demand resources including an assessment of the environmental costs and
benefits; manage supply portfolio cost uncertainty to meet rate and reserve objectives; enhance
supply reliability to meet City and customer needs by pursuing opportunities including transmission
system upgrades and local generation.
The primary strategies comprising LEAP focus on acquisition of least total cost resources including an
assessment of environmental costs and benefits to meet the City’s needs in the long term by
evaluating each potential resource on an equal basis by evaluating rate impacts and establishing costs
and values for location, time of day and year, carbon, value of renewable supplies and any secondary
benefits attributed to the resource. The LEAP strategy includes all electricity resources – conventional
energy, local and remote renewable energy supplies, energy efficiency, cogeneration, and demand
reduction.
The City of Palo Alto’s electric distribution system is connected to Pacific Gas and Electric Company’s
(PG&E) transmission grid line running along the shoreline via three 115 kV transmission lines at a
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single intertie. These three lines provide redundancy and back-up power delivery; all three lines run in
a common corridor on the bay side of the City, a corridor that is in close proximity to the Palo Alto
Airport. The three PG&E owned transmissions lines supplying the City are located within a PG&E
transmission corridor that passes through East Palo Alto. All lines are overhead lines, with two lines
located on steel towers and the third on wood poles. The towers and the wood poles are located just
40 feet apart. The common corridor and proximity to an airport means that the City’s power supply is
susceptible to single events that can affect all three lines, as happened in February of 2010 when a
small aircraft hit the power lines resulting in a city-wide power outage for over 10 hours. These 115
kV transmissions lines connect to the Colorado substation where the power is distributed to a network
of substations throughout the City’s distribution network.
The City has considered potential projects to reduce interruption risks to accident or other event. One
potential project, referred to as the Ames Line Project would provide a second 115 kV transmission
line from the PG&E grid to the City. This project would reduce the interruption risk between the
shoreline transmission line and Palo Alto, but would not reduce Palo Alto’s redundancy due to any
failure in the shoreline transmission line itself. This Ames Line project is still under consideration.
The City has also considered installing a 230-60kV transformer at SLAC’s 230 kV substation and
building two underground 60kV lines from SLAC to Palo Alto’s Hanover substation which would provide
transmission redundancy. This project has not been implemented.
Local
Hazard
Mitigation
Plan
(LHMP)
The City of Palo Alto participates in the Association of Bay Area Governments regional Resilience
Program. The City’s Annex (Section 18) to the 2010 Santa Clara County Local Hazard Mitigation Plan
(LHMP) 19 is managed by for the City of Palo Alto Office of Emergency Services (OES), and is updated
every five years. The LHMP assesses the technical, managerial, and fiscal capabilities of the City to
support hazard mitigation, including a summary of relevant local plans, policies and City ordinances. It
also provides a vulnerability assessment of the City’s critical facilities (for potable water supply,
shelter, fire suppression, emergency response, electricity supply, natural gas supply, stormwater
management, wastewater treatment, and city administration), by identifying the facilities (see Table
18-12 of the LHMP) and assessing their exposure to risk from flood, sea level rise, wildfire, and
earthquake hazards. Vulnerability to heat and drought is also considered, but the LHMP concludes that
the City of Palo Alto does not have unique concerns regarding those hazards.
The 2010 LHMP identifies 50 critical facilities in the following function categories:
¥ Potable water reservoir
¥ Potable water booster station
¥ Potable water/fluoride
¥ Stormwater pump station
¥ Electric substation
¥ Natural gas station
19
Santa
Clara
County,
2012;
Palo
Alto
Annex
to
the
Santa
Clara
County
Hazard
Mitigation
Plan
2011
update;
available
at:
http://www.sccgov.org/sites/oes/PlansPublications/Pages/LHMP.aspx
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 49 of 124
¥ Police and Fire Stations
¥ Regional wastewater treatment
¥ Utility Control Center (UCC)Emergency operations/recovery
¥ Shelter
¥ Administrative Office
The LHMP includes maps showing the overlap of hazard zones with critical facilities, along with tables
summarizing the risks and consequences of critical facilities being exposed to these hazards.
The Office of Emergency Services is in the process of updating its critical facilities list in preparation
for the 2015 LHMP update. Facility data is being migrated from a spreadsheet-based system to a
relational database and analytic risk management software package known as Cal COP (formerly
Digital Sandbox DS7), through the Bay Area Urban Area Security Initiative (Bay Area UASI) that is
funded by the Department of Homeland Security. New algorithms will help the City determine critical
assets going forward.
In 2014, the City became one of the first jurisdictions in the Bay Area to complete a Threat and
Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment (THIRA) process. THIRA expands the LHMP assessment,
consistent with all hazards planning best practices. The redacted version of the THIRA is posted on
the web: www.cityofpaloalto.org/thira
Departmental Responsibilities
The City of Palo Alto operates several departments with capabilities for implementing hazard
mitigation strategies. These departments and their roles and responsibilities are summarized as
follows:
Community
Services
Department
The Community Services Department operates the Cubberley Community Center along with various
parks (including the Baylands) and other facilities, many of which function as shelters, evacuation
points or other uses in a disaster. Further, the CSD Open Space Rangers are trained in wildland
firefighting and also support the Police Department in patrolling parks and the Wildland Urban
Interface (WUI).
Development
Services
Department
The mission of the Development Services Department is to work collaboratively with other
departments to provide citizens, business owners, developers, and applicants reliable and predictable
expectations in the review, permitting, and inspection of development projects that meet the
minimum municipal and building code requirements to ensure the health, safety, and welfare of the
public. The Building Division ensures construction quality by reviewing construction plans for
conformance to building codes, permit processing, and inspecting projects while under construction.
Planning
and
Community
Environment
Department
Planning Section
The Planning Section provides staff support for the Planning & Transportation Commission, the
Architectural Review Board, the Historic Resources Board, and administers the City's housing
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programs as well as preparing and monitoring the Comprehensive Plan and providing long-range
planning studies. This division also processes applications for planning entitlements.
Code Enforcement Program
The Code Enforcement Program promotes maintaining a safe and desirable living and working
environment, and helps improve the quality of the community
Transportation Division
The Transportation Division enhances safety and mobility in Palo Alto’s transportation system while
protecting environmental resources and preserving the community's quality of life.
Office
of
Sustainability
The Office of Sustainability's mission is to lead the organization, residents, and visitors in promoting a
culture of environmental sustainability by developing, coordinating, and leading initiatives citywide,
regionally, and through partnerships with the community.
Public
Safety
Departments
The City of Palo Alto has a coordinated structure among its Public Safety departments. This includes,
for example, a unified Public Safety Answering Point (PSAP) 911 Center that serves the City as well as
Stanford University for law enforcement, fire/EMS, public works, utilities, animal services, and other
emergency call types.
Fire Department
The City of Palo Alto Fire Department provides fire and emergency medical services (EMS) to the city
and to Stanford University. The large number of businesses and the Stanford University campus often
increase the daytime population to over twice the residential baseline population. The Fire Marshal and
fire inspector staff perform plan checks and other such functions to maintain the safety of buildings, as
well as certain special events.
Office of Emergency Services
The City of Palo Alto's Office of Emergency Services (OES) has a mission to prevent, prepare for and
mitigate, respond to, and recover from all hazards. The powers of OES are enumerated in the Palo
Alto Municipal Code Section PAMC 2.12.050(b): "(4)Direct coordination and cooperation of services
and staff of the emergency organization of the city, and resolve questions of authority and
responsibility that may arise between them; and (5)Represent the city in all dealings with public or
private agencies on matters pertaining to emergencies as defined herein." Therefore, OES leads or
coordinates day-to-day planning, intelligence, and coordination, not only internally but also with allied
agencies, Stanford University, the private sector, and the community. OES is responsible for
numerous critical assets, including the Emergency Operations Center (EOC) located in the Police
Department, the Mobile Emergency Operations Center (MEOC), various interoperability systems, and
other equipment.
Police Department
The Palo Alto Police Department, in addition to providing law enforcement services, is responsible for
maintaining a core asset for emergency operations: the 911 Communications Center, which provides
dispatch for Palo Alto Police Department, the Stanford Department Public Safety (DPS) police, the Palo
Alto Fire Department, as well as other government channels. This center serves as the 911 Public
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Safety Answering Point (PSAP) for the Palo Alto and Stanford communities. The City's Animal Shelter
and Animal Services operation is also a division of the Police Department.
Public
Works
Department
The Public Works Department is responsible for the approval, construction, maintenance and
management of Palo Alto's public facilities, streets, sidewalks, street trees; parking lots and storm
drains. The Public Works Department is also responsible for the administration and operation of the
Palo Alto Regional Water Quality Control Plant; and administration of the National Flood Insurance
Program. In addition, Public Works maintains the entire City fleet with full equipment replacement,
preventative maintenance and fueling at the Municipal Service Center, a facility located in the
Baylands. The Public Works Department also manages the Palo Alto Airport, also located in the
Baylands. The Airport is a critical asset for emergency operations, including day-to-day public safety
(for example, it is where the Stanford Life Light rescue helicopter refuels and is maintained). The Civil
Air Patrol also has a squadron at the Palo Alto Airport.
Utilities
Department
The Utilities Department is responsible for the approval, construction, maintenance and management
of Palo Alto's public electric, fiber, water, gas, and wastewater collection facilities. The Utilities
Department is also responsible for the maintenance and operation of the street light and traffic signal
programs. In addition to having the responsibility for the infrastructure, the Utilities Department
purchases all of the water, gas and electricity commodities used within the City.
Information
Technology
(IT)
Department
The IT Department is responsible for data integrity and reliability of information systems that support
the functioning of the City and its response to emergencies. The Department bases its information
management on three tiers of criticality assigned to the City’s systems (e.g., fire protection) that
serve the community. Data and operational software for most of the City’s systems is currently being
moved from on-site computers to a cloud-based system, making it less vulnerable to local physical
hazards. The exception is the City’s natural gas and electric systems.
City
of
Palo
Alto
2010
Urban
Water
Management
Plan
(UWMP)20
The California Urban Water Management Planning Act requires every urban water supplier (of a certain
minimum size) to prepare and adopt an urban water management plan (UWMP) for the purpose of
“actively pursue[ing] the efficient use of available supplies,” and stipulates required contents of
UWMPs. UWMPs must describe the reliability of the water supply and vulnerability to seasonal or
climatic shortage, to the extent practicable.
Since 1937, the City has depended on water supplied by the City and County of San Francisco’s
Regional Water System (RWS) operated by the SFPUC. The RWS is supplied predominantly by
watersheds in the Sierra Nevada mountains, while local watersheds and treatment facilities in
Alameda and San Mateo Counties supplement the system. On average, SFPUC’s Hetch Hetchy Project
(see Figure 4.2) provides over 85% of the water delivered to the SFPUC service area. The reliability of
the SFPUC water supply is very dependent on reservoir storage. During period of drought, reservoir
storage is critical because it enables the SFPUC to carry over water supply from wet years to dry
years. During droughts the water received from the Hetch Hetchy system can amount to over 93% of
the total water delivered.
20
City
of
Pal
Alto
Utilities,
June
2011:
2010
Urban
Water
Management
Plan.
Available
at:
http://www.cityofpaloalto.org/gov/depts/utl/eng/water/watermgmt.asp
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To assure the long-term adequacy of its water system, the SFPUC is currently undertaking the Water
System Improvement Program (WSIP). The WSIP is a $4.6 billion, multi-year, capital program to
upgrade the RWS. The program will deliver improvements that enhance the SFPUC’s ability to provide
reliable, affordable, high-quality drinking water to its wholesale customers and retail customers in an
environmentally sustainable manner. The SFPUC developed WSIP water supply objectives based on
RWS supplies forecasted for a conservative “design drought” of 8.5 years.21
Figure 4.2: SFPUC Regional Water System
Source: 2010 Urban Water Management Plan for the City and County of San Francisco
City of Palo Alto is a member of the Bay Area Water Supply and Conservation Agency (BAWSCA),
whose member agencies receive water from the City and County of San Francisco through a contract
that is administered by the SFPUC. The City, working in cooperation with SFPUC and BAWSCA, has
completed several studies and reports analyzing weather- and climate-related reliability of the water
supply. The UWMP summarizes the following studies:
Water Wells, Regional Storage and Distribution System Study (1999) – This study examined
the ability of the City’s water system to supply water during an 8-hour disruption of SFPUC supply.
The study concluded the City should invest in certain capital projects. These projects became part of
the City’s Emergency Water Supply and Storage Project, which is currently complete.
The Water Supply Master Plan (WSMP, 2000) – The WSMP was a joint study by BAWSCA and the
SFPUC to address the future water supply needs of the 30 agencies and 2.3 million people who are
served via the SFPUC water system. The City was actively involved in the development of this plan,
participating on the WSMP Steering Committee.
21
The
San
Francisco
Public
Utilities
Commission,
2013
Water
Availability
Study
for
the
City
and
County
of
San
Francisco,
March
2013
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Alternative Emergency Water Supply Options Study (2001) – This study examined the ability of
the City’s distribution system to supply water during various lengths of supply disruption (e.g., 1 day,
3 days, 30 days) and included an analysis of the vulnerability of the City’s water distribution system.
The study concluded that the capital projects in the Emergency Water Supply and Storage Project,
specifically related to groundwater wells, would result in the ability to supply sufficient water in
disruptions of SFPUC supply.
Water Integrated Resource Plan (WIRP, 2003) – The WIRP evaluated all the City’s water supply
alternatives in an effort to determine what long-term direction the City should take for water resource
planning. In 2000, this effort resulted in the publication of a document describing in detail all the
identified alternatives. The WIRP concludes, based on available information, that supplies from the
SFPUC are adequate in normal years, but additional supplies are needed in drought years to avoid
shortages.
City of Palo Alto Emergency Water Supply & Storage Project Final Environmental Impact
Report (2007) – The City certified the EIR to locate a site and construct a 2.5 million gallon
underground water reservoir and pump station in Palo Alto to meet emergency water supply and
storage needs. In addition to this water reservoir, the project includes the siting and construction of
several emergency supply wells and the upgrade of five existing wells and the existing Mayfield Pump
Station. The Emergency Water Supply and Storage Project has been completed.
Recycled Water Facility Plan (March 2009) – This study defined the recycled water alternatives
and identified a recommended project alignment. The study also provided a funding strategy and an
implementation plan for the recommended project.
Water Conservation Implementation Plan (WCIP, 2009) - The goal of the WCIP is to develop an
implementation plan for BAWSCA and its member agencies to attain the water efficiency goals that the
agencies committed to in 2004 as part of the Program EIR for the WSIP. At that time, over 32 water
conservation measures were evaluated. The WCIP identifies how BAWSCA member agencies can use
water conservation as a way to continue to provide reliable water supplies to their customers through
2018 given the SFPUC’s Interim Supply Limitation (See Water Supply Agreement in next section).
Local Water Use
Total water purchases by CPAU in FY 2014 amounted to 12,673 acre-feet (AF), about equal to FY 2013
sales. Water consumption in FY 2014 was significantly lower than the 1987 (pre-drought) usage. The
reduction in present water consumption, compared to pre-drought levels, appears to be the result of
several factors, including permanent water conservation measures implemented during the past 30
years and increased standards for water efficient appliances.
The UWMP reports that overall water use in the community decreased by 27% during the period 2000
to 2010. All customer classes showed a significant reduction in annual water use per account. During
this period, water use per account decreased by 46% for industrial customers, by 32% for commercial
customers, by 12% for public facilities, and by 35% for City facilities. 2010 total water use by single-
family residential customers decreased by 22% and multi-family residential water use decreased by
34%.
The UWMP states that the City’s water consumption is forecast to remain relatively stable in the
future, with a slight increase due to a rebound in the economy and continued, albeit gradual, increase
in population and employment numbers. Future projections are uncertain, but large increases in
consumption are unlikely. Without implementation of Demand Management Measure (DMMs), water
use would increase by about 29 percent by the end of 2030. This forecast includes an expected 17
percent increase in the total number of accounts. This baseline projection includes anticipated effects
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of the plumbing code on overall water use as well as expected ongoing conservation efforts among
customers. After incorporating the impact of DMMs, total sales are expected to increase by 17 percent
from the period 2010 to 2030.
Water Supply Agreement
As a wholesale customer of the SFPUC, the City is bound by the 2009 Water Supply Agreement (WSA)
and Individual Water Sales Contract with the SFPUC which has a 25-year term. The WSA provides a
“Supply Assurance” of 184 million gallons per day (MGD) to be shared among its wholesale customers
that is subject to reduction in cases of water shortage due to drought, emergencies, or
malfunctioning/ rehabilitation of the RWS. Under the WSA, the City of Palo Alto has an Individual
Supply Guarantee (ISG) of 17.07 million gallons per day (MGD). The WSA includes a Water Shortage
Allocation Plan that addresses shortages of up to 20% of system-wide use, through pre-set allocations
to its wholesale customers. The Tier 1 plan addresses how the available water supplies would be
divided between San Francisco and its wholesale customers. The Tier 2 plan, developed in 2010 by
BAWSCA agencies, was approved by all participating agencies including Palo Alto. It addresses how
the water available to the wholesale customers would be divided among them. The Tier 2 Water
Shortage Implementation Plan is in effect until 2018, when SFPUC must re-evaluate the Supply
Assurance.
In addition to the WCIP described above, BAWSCA and its member agencies identified five additional
water conservation measures, which, if implemented fully throughout the BAWSCA service area, could
potentially save an additional 8.4 MGD by 2018 and 12.5 MGD by 2030. The demand projections for
the BAWSCA member agencies, as transmitted to the SFPUC on June 30, 2010, indicate that collective
purchases from the SFPUC will stay below the 184 MGD allocation through 2018 as a result of revised
water demand projections, the identified water conservation savings, and other actions.
When SFPUC adopted the WSIP, it approved an interim water supply limitation through 2018, when it
expects it will be in a better position to make decisions regarding long term water supply issues. Palo
Alto’s Interim Supply Allocation (ISA) is 14.70 MGD. The UWMP does not anticipate exceeding the
14.70 MGD ISL during the ISL period ending in 2018.
The ISA is distinct from the ISG. The ISG is a perpetual entitlement for water delivered from the
SFPUC system that survives the expiration of the current water delivery contract. The ISA is an
interim water delivery limitation intended to accomplish the goals outlined in the adopted WSIP, and it
automatically expires in 2018.
Climate Change section of the UWMP
The UWMP recognizes the importance of climate change in water resources planning. The following
passage, extracted from the City’s 2010 UWMP, indicates that the SFPUC is monitoring the effects of
climate change on its water supply and as recently as 2009 did not consider supply to be at significant
risk through the year 2030:
As described by the SFPUC in its October 2009 Final Water Supply Availability Study for the City and
County of San Francisco, there is evidence that increasing concentrations of greenhouse gasses have
caused and will continue to cause a rise in temperatures around the world that could result in a wide
range of changes in climate patterns. These changes are expected to have a direct effect on water
resources in California. Climate change could result in the following types of water resource impacts,
including impacts on the watersheds in the Bay Area:
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¥ Reductions in the average annual snowpack due to a rise in the snowline and a shallower
snowpack in the low and medium elevation zones, such as in the Tuolumne River basin, and a
shift in snowmelt runoff to earlier in the year;
¥ Changes in the timing, intensity and variability of precipitation, and an increased amount of
precipitation falling as rain instead of as snow;
¥ Long-term changes in watershed vegetation and increased incidence of wildfires that could
affect water quality;
¥ Sea level rise and an increase in saltwater intrusion;
¥ Increased water temperatures with accompanying potential adverse effects on some fisheries
and water quality;
¥ Increases in evaporation and concomitant increased irrigation need; and
¥ Changes in urban and agricultural water demand.
According to the SFPUC’S October 2009 study, other than the general trends listed above, there is no
clear scientific consensus on exactly how climate change will quantitatively affect the state’s water
supplies, and current models of water systems in California generally do not reflect the potential
effects of climate change.
Initial climate change modeling completed by the SFPUC indicates that about seven percent of runoff
currently draining into Hetch Hetchy Reservoir will shift from the spring and summer seasons to the
fall and winter seasons in the Hetch Hetchy basin by 2025. This percentage is within the current
interannual variation in runoff and is within the range accounted for during normal runoff forecasting
and existing reservoir management practices. The predicted shift in runoff timing is similar to the
results found by other researchers modeling water resource impacts in the Sierra Nevada due to
warming trends associated with climate change.
The SFPUC has stated that based on this preliminary analysis, the potential impacts of climate change
are not expected to affect the water supply available from the San Francisco Regional Water System
(RWS) or the overall operation of the RWS through 2030.
The SFPUC views assessment of the effects of climate change as an ongoing project requiring regular
updating to reflect improvements in climate science, atmospheric/ocean modeling, and human
response to the threat of greenhouse gas emissions. To refine its climate change analysis and expand
the range of climate parameters being evaluated, as well as expand the timeframes being considered,
the SFPUC is currently undertaking two additional studies. The first utilizes a newly calibrated
hydrologic model of the Hetch Hetchy watershed to explore sensitivities of inflow to different climate
change scenarios involving changes in air temperature and precipitation. The second study will seek to
utilize state-of-the-art climate modeling techniques in conjunction with water system modeling tools to
more fully explore potential effects of climate change on the SFPUC water system as a whole. Both
analyses will consider potential effects through the year 2100. It is now known when these studies will
be completed, but SFPUC’s 2015 update of its UWMP should provide additional information.
Drought Planning
October 1, 2011 to September 30, 2014 was the driest three-year period on hydrologic record in
California and as a result, reservoir storage, snowpack, and reservoir inflows were significantly lower
than normal throughout the State. The unprecedented dry weather conditions prompted Governor
Jerry Brown to declare a drought emergency for the State of California in January 2014. This action
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spurred the SFPUC to request that all customers of the Regional Water System voluntarily reduce
water use by at least 10%.22
When the City’s 2010 UWMP was completed, the City had experienced severe droughts during 1976-
77 and 1987-93. In response to these droughts the City adopted a number of water conservation
strategies. Following the conclusions in the 2003 WIRP that supplies from the SFPUC could be
inadequate during drought years, the City adopted a set of guidelines in 2003 seeking to reduce the
potential supply deficit. The options considered include using groundwater, connecting to the SCVWD’s
treated water pipeline, developing recycled water, and expanding water efficiency programs.
Following the WIRP a public survey was conducted, and based on conclusions from the survey and the
WIRP, City staff in 2004 made the following 5 recommendations:
1. Installation of advanced treatment systems for groundwater is too expensive, both in capital
and in operating costs.
2. Blending at an SFPUC turnout is the best way to use groundwater as a supplemental drought
time supply while maintaining good water quality.
3. In the selection process for new well sites, the costs for blending with SFPUC water in
droughts should be considered. The least expensive location is a well at El Camino Park due to
its proximity to an SFPUC turnout.
4. Actively participate in the development of long-term drought supply plans with SFPUC and
BAWSCA.
5. Continue in the efforts identified in the Council-approved WIRP Guidelines:
o Evaluate a range of demand-side management (DSM) options for their ability to
reduce long-term water demands;
o Evaluate feasibility of expanding the use of recycled water; and
o Maintain emergency water conservation measures to be activated in case of droughts.
Conservation Measures
At its core, the UWMP is essentially a plan to comply with the Water Conservation Bill of 2009 (SBx7‐
7), enacted in November 2009, which requires water suppliers to reduce the statewide average per
capita daily water consumption by 20% by December 31, 2020. Palo Alto’s 2020 target is 179.3
gallons per capita, a 20% reduction from a baseline of 223 (average calculated over 10 year period
from 1995-2004).
At minimum, an UWMP must evaluate fourteen Demand Management Measure (DMMs) identified in
the Urban Water Management Planning Act. The following DMMS are currently implemented or are
planned for future implementation by the City. The 2010 UWMP evaluates each of them in detail for
goals, cost-effectiveness, and conservation savings:
A. Water Survey Programs for Single-Family and Multi-Family Residential Customers
22
ibid
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B. Residential Plumbing Retrofit
C. System Water Audits, Leak Detection, and Repair
D. Metering with Commodity Rates for All New Connections and Retrofit of Existing Connections
E. Large Landscape Conservation Programs and Incentives
¥ Landscape Survey Program for Commercial, Industrial, Institutional Customers
¥ Weather‐Based (Evapotranspiration) Irrigation Controller Rebates
¥ Large Landscape Turf Replacement
¥ Residential Turf Replacement
¥ Landscape Rebates for Irrigation Hardware Upgrades
F. High‐Efficiency Washing Machine Rebate Programs
G. Public Information Programs
H. School Education Programs
I. Conservation Programs for Commercial, Industrial, and Institutional (CII) Accounts
¥ Commercial Water Audits
¥ Water Efficiency Direct Installation Program
¥ Water Efficient Technologies Rebate Program
¥ CII High Efficiency Toilet Direct Installation Program
J. Conservation Pricing
K. Water Conservation Coordinator
L. Water Waste Prohibition
M. Residential Ultra‐Low‐Flush Toilet Replacement
N. New Development Indoor and Outdoor Regulations
O. Irrigation Classes for Homeowners
P. Rainwater Harvesting Incentives
Q. Residential Graywater Reuse
The City is currently operating or is in the process of launching several new conservation programs
with particular emphasis on outdoor irrigation efficiency including high water use landscape
conversion, and improved efficiency measures for the commercial, industrial, and institutional sectors.
Additionally, the use of graywater reuse, rainwater harvesting systems, and other water efficiency
measures may be evaluated further for conservation potential leading up to the 2015 UWMP. The City
is committed to promoting all cost-effective conservation programs that meet both the City’s water
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reduction goals and community interest. Palo Alto shifts emphasis between different conservation
programs depending on various factors, including community acceptance. Over time, the program
mixture may change, though the overall savings goals will remain constant.
Local Groundwater Supply
The quality of the City’s groundwater is considered fair to good23, having recovered from past
overdrafts, and the City has an existing water well system consisting of eight deep aquifer wells (not
hydrologically connected to surface groundwater) with a combined total rated capacity of
approximately 11,300 gallons per minute (gpm). Some of these wells have been called into service in
the past (1988 and 1991) when the City faced shortages due to SFPUC implemented mandatory
rationing. The Santa Clara Valley Water District (SCVWD) is the groundwater management agency in
Santa Clara County; the groundwater basin is not adjudicated, meaning water rights have not
specifically been established by the courts to determine who can pump groundwater, how much
groundwater can be pumped, and how the process is managed.
As of the 2010 UWMP writing, no decision had been made regarding whether or not to use
groundwater as a supplemental supply in droughts, though the City has completed the Emergency
Water Supply and Storage Project which provides the City the flexibility to rely on groundwater during
a drought if necessary. The project consists of the repair and rehabilitation of the five existing wells,
construction of three new wells, potentially equipping one well for use as a supplemental water supply,
construction of a new 2.5 million gallon underground storage reservoir at El Camino Park and
associated pump station, and other upgrades to the groundwater supply system. If the wells were to
be used as a dry year supplemental supply source, the City would use the new well at El Camino Park
and blend the groundwater with SFPUC supplies to meet regulatory standards for drinking water
quality. In addition, several other issues will need to be addressed prior to the use of the wells during
a drought, including issues of water quality compared to the City’s SFPUC source, customer
acceptance, and SCVWD groundwater production costs.
The Emergency Water Supply and Storage Project’s primary goal is to provide water supply in the case
of fire, or drought emergency, or loss of SFPUC supplies due to earthquake or other disaster. The
completed project provides a minimum of eight hours of normal water use at the maximum day
demand level and four hours of fire suppression at the design fire duration level. The groundwater
system may also be used to a limited extent for water supply during drought conditions (up to 1,500
acre feet per year), and is capable of providing normal wintertime supply needs during extended
shutdowns of the SFPUC system. The project provides up to 11,000 gpm of reliable well capacity and
2.5 million gallons (MG) of water storage for emergency use.
Transfer or Exchange Opportunities
Because the existing RWS does not have sufficient supplies in dry years, dry-year water transfers are
potentially an important part of future water supplies. In addition to the WSMP and the WSIP
described above, the City is monitoring the development of a water transfer market in California,
including a mechanism for BAWSCA members to transfer contractual entitlements on the SFPUC
system. The City supports SFPUC’s efforts to pursue cost-effective dry-year water transfers as part of
23
The
City’s
groundwater
is
approximately
six
times
higher
in
total
dissolved
solids
(TDS)
and
hardness
compared
to
SFPUC-‐supplied
water.
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 59 of 124
the overall water supply for the RWS. BAWSCA has the ability to pursue water transfers on its own as
long as a wheeling arrangement can be negotiated with the SFPUC.
Recycled Water
The City operates the Regional Water Quality Control Plant (RWQCP), a wastewater treatment plant,
for the East Palo Alto Sanitary District, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Mountain View, Palo Alto, and
Stanford University. Wastewater from these communities is treated by the RWQCP prior to discharge
to the Bay. The UWMP provides a thorough assessment of recycled water as a water source for the
City, noting that the quality of the water discharged from the RWQCP meets very high standards and
approaches the standards for drinking water.
The 2010 UWMP summarizes the extensive planning work the City has conducted related to recycled
water, starting with the Water Reclamation Master Plan co-authored with other RWQCP partners in
1992, a Recycled Water Market Survey in 2006, and a Recycled Water Facility Plan in 2008. The latter
study recommended the Palo Alto Recycled Water Project,24 which proposes the construction of a
recycled water pipeline and associated facilities to provide an alternative water supply for non-potable
uses. The proposed project, now being implemented in phases, involves the construction of
approximately five miles of 12- to 18-inch pipes, a booster pump station and a pump station at the
RWQCP, and approximately five miles of lateral pipelines to over 50 use sites. The project is
envisioned to serve approximately 900 acre-feet per year of recycled water25, mostly to the Stanford
Research Park Area. The predominant use of recycled water for this project is landscape irrigation.
Some industrial use, such as commercial and light industrial cooling towers, could also be included at
a later date.
The City is a stakeholder in multiple regional recycled water planning groups and initiatives, including
the California Water Reuse Association, the Bay Area Recycled Water Coalition, SCVWD Recycled
Water Committee, the Bay Area Clean Water Agencies Recycled Water Committee, and the ABAG-led
effort to secure grant funding for the Bay Area Integrated Regional Water Management Plan (IRWMP)
and related projects.
In September 2010, the RWQCP completed installation of a new ultraviolet disinfection facility which
will allow a gradual increase in the amount of recycled water that meets the Title 22 unrestricted use
standard if demand requires an upgrade to the recycled water storage capacity. The remaining treated
wastewater meets the restricted use standard and can also be recycled.
24
The
Utilities
and
Service
Systems
Element
of
the
City’s
2014
Draft
Comprehensive
Plan
provides
an
up-‐to-‐
date
assessment
of
the
Recycled
Water
Project,
noting
that
the
majority
of
the
wastewater
treated
at
the
RWQCP
could
be
recycled
and
that
the
plant
already
has
some
capability
to
produce
recycled
water
that
meets
the
Title
22
unrestricted
use
standard
(approximately
4.5
MGD
of
capacity
of
which
4.5
MGD
is
presently
available).
The
Recycled
Water
Project
is
currently
serving
non-‐potable
needs
in
areas
east
of
Highway
101,
including
irrigation
at
the
golf
course
and
Greer
Park,
marsh
enhancement
at
Emily
Renzel
Marsh,
and
various
needs
at
the
Municipal
Service
Center
and
RWQCP.
25
Since
the
2010
UWMP,
elevated
salinity
levels
in
the
recycled
water
have
been
identified
as
an
area
of
concern
to
the
project’s
stakeholders.
The
City
has
approved
a
Salinity
Reduction
Policy
outlining
steps
to
lower
the
TDS
levels
in
the
recycled
water
towards
the
goal
of
increased
customer
acceptance
of
the
use
of
recycled
water.
Recently
completed
salinity
control
measures
have
proven
successful
and
the
Total
Dissolved
Solids
(TDS)
has
been
reduced
from
920
mg/L
(2009-‐2012
Average)
to
770
mg/L
(2013
average).
Additional
projects
are
underway
and
further
reductions
are
anticipated.
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 60 of 124
Desalinated Water
The UWMP notes that the City has no plans for development of desalinated water. It is possible a
desalination facility may be part of a preferred supply portfolio identified in the BAWSCA Long Term
Reliable Water Supply Strategy. The City is currently aware of one regional collaborative effort
between different water agencies to evaluate a large scale Bay Area desalination project, The Bay
Area Regional Desalination Project. The Bay Area Regional Desalination Project is a collaboration
between the East Bay Municipal Utility District, SCVWD, the SFPUC, Contra Costa Water District, and
Zone 7 Water Agency to jointly explore developing the feasibility of a regional desalination facility that
could directly or indirectly benefit 5.4 million San Francisco Bay Area residents and businesses served
by these agencies.
Strategy
to
Advance
Flood
Protection,
Ecosystems,
and
Recreation
Along
the
Bay
(SAFER
Bay)
The existing coastal levees along Palo Alto’s San Francisco Bay shoreline are too low to provide FEMA-
certified flood protection to Palo Alto and its neighbors. The existing levees do not meet current state
and federal standards. Therefore, the Palo Alto has joined with other member communities in the San
Francisco Creek Joint Powers Authority (SFCJPA) to plan and design coastal flood management. This
project is known as Strategy to Advance Flood Protection, Ecosystems, and Recreation Along the Bay
(SAFER Bay). This project started in December 2014, with planning to continue through 2015.
The SAFER Bay project will reduce the risk of flooding within the study area from San Francisco Bay
coastal waters and support the communities’ desire to be removed from the FEMA floodplain. At a
minimum, the project will accommodate the current FEMA 100-year still water elevation plus
freeboard. Where feasible, current FEMA 100-year plus freeboard plus 3 feet of future sea level rise
will be provided. This accommodation for 3 feet of sea level rise will match the design criteria of
another SFCJPA project to improve the levees along the lower, tidal portion of San Francisquito Creek.
In addition, the project will also:
¥ expand opportunities for improved recreation and community connectivity;
¥ minimize future maintenance requirements;
¥ incorporate features that facilitate adaptation to our changing climate by utilizing tidal marsh
areas for flood protection in a way that enhances habitat and facilitates restoration associated
with the South Bay Salt Ponds Restoration Project; and
¥ create opportunities for partnership with agencies and organizations pursuing similar
objectives.
In relation to the last bullet, Palo Alto is also coordinating with the City of Mountain View to coordinate
coastal flood management along these cities’ shared boundary.
Bay
Area
Integrated
Regional
Water
Management
Plan
(IRWMP)26
The Bay Area IRWMP presents a thorough summary of climate change projections and expected
impacts to four water-related Functional Areas in the Bay Area, including water supply/water quality,
flood control wastewater/stormwater, and watershed and habitat protection.
26
San
Francisco
Bay
Area
Integrated
Regional
Water
Management
Plan,
September
2013.
Available
at:
http://bairwmp.org/
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 61 of 124
The Bay Area IRWMP reviewed climate change adaptation strategies from a wide range of regional and
local initiatives and planning documents such as urban water management plans, habitat restoration
plans, wastewater treatment master plans, watershed stewardship plans and water supply strategies.
Table 4-1 identifies climate change adaptation strategies identified by the IRWMP that are included in
representative regional and local plans according to corresponding Functional Areas and vulnerabilities
and priorities. The IRWMP reviewed plans affecting all Functional Areas and sub regions. The review
confirmed that, with the exception of urban water supply, the approach to water resources planning in
general varies widely across Functional Areas and among agencies. For example, with respect to sea
level rise and vulnerable water resources infrastructure (e.g., wastewater treatment plants), not all
local plans reviewed contained adaptation strategies. This may reflect the absence of a legal
requirement for a plan rather than a lack of planning for sea level rise; some agency websites
indicated that climate change planning was indeed underway.
Adaptation
Strategies
Identified
In
Bay
Area
IRWMP
The Bay Area IRWMP identifies the following general strategies for adapting to climate change:
¥ Incorporate climate change adaptation into relevant local and regional plans and projects;
¥ “No Regrets” approach to address immediate or ongoing concerns while reducing future risks;
¥ Establish a climate change adaptation public outreach and education program;
¥ Build collaborative relationships between regional entities and neighboring communities to
promote complementary adaptation strategy development and regional approaches;
¥ Establish an ongoing monitoring program to track local and regional climate impacts and
adaptation strategy effectiveness; and
¥ Update building codes and zoning.
Additional strategies identified in Bay Area local plans for adapting to water supply impact include local
capture and reuse projects, and desalination.
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 62 of 124
Table 4-1: Bay Area Adaptation Strategies Identified in the Bay Area IRWMP27
Vulnerability Areas/Functions Affected Strategies
Sea Level Rise
& Coastal
Flooding
¥ Low-lying Baylands
increasingly vulnerable to
more frequent, longer, deeper
flooding
¥ Critical infrastructure in the
hazard zone, includes
wastewater treatment plants
power plants vulnerable to
100-year coastal flood
¥ Multifunctional ecosystem-
based adaptation along the
bayshore and rivers
¥ Remove critical infrastructure
from hazard zone
¥ Raise, armor and maintain
flood control structures that
protect critical infrastructure
that cannot be moved.
¥ Prevent placement of new
infrastructure in areas likely to
be inundated.
¥ Improve emergency
preparedness, response,
evacuation and recovery plans.
Fluvial Flooding ¥ More intense storms leading to
more frequent, longer, deeper
flooding generally expected
Hydropower ¥ Decrease in Sierra snowpack
is expected; increased
evapotranspiration is
expected; shift in timing of
runoff virtually certain; and
timing and amount of power
generation is expected to
change
Water Supply ¥ Decrease in total precipitation
is possible;
¥ Delta Sources – impacts from
sea level rise
¥ Regional Sources – continued
variability in precipitation;
potentially less spring
precipitation; more intense
storms may affect surface
water runoff, storage,
groundwater recharge.
¥ Continued water conservation
including water efficient
landscaping programs
¥ Reduce reliance on imported
water
¥ Increased use of recycled
water
¥ Improve potential movement
of water supplies among
neighbouring agencies during
periods of extreme water
27
Based
on
Table
12-‐3
in
the
Bay
Area
IRWMP
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 63 of 124
¥ Demand likely to increase due
to increases in air
temperature, increased
evaporation losses and longer
growing season
shortage
¥ Expand available water storage
¥ Adopt land use ordinances that
protect natural functioning of
groundwater recharge areas
¥ Implement tiered pricing to
reduce water consumption and
demand
Water Quality ¥ Sierra Nevada Supplies –
imported water potentially
vulnerable to water quality
change
¥ Delta Supplies – increased
salinity from sea level rise,
increased turbidity from
extreme storm events
¥ Regional Supplies – water
quality impacts from increased
temperature, decreased
precipitation, decreased
recharge, more intense
storms, increased wildfire risk,
longer periods of low flow
conditions.
¥ Evaluate capability of surface
water treatment plants to
respond to extreme storm
events and increased risk of
wildfires.
¥ Encourage projects that
improve water quality of
contaminated groundwater
sources
¥ Increase implementation of
LID techniques to improve
stormwater management.
Ecosystem and
Habitat
¥ Changes in temperature and
precipitation, together with
increased wildfire will result in
impacts to species, increased
invasive species’ ranges, loss
of ecosystem functions,
changes in growing ranges for
vegetation.
¥ Provide or enhance connected
“migration corridors” and
linkages between undeveloped
areas for animals and plants
¥ Promote water resources
management strategies that
restore and enhance
ecosystem services
¥ Re-establish natural hydrologic
connectivity between rivers
and floodplains
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 64 of 124
Silicon
Valley
2.0
Silicon Valley 2.0 is a regional planning effort, led by the County of Santa Clara Office of
Sustainability, to minimize the anticipated impacts of climate change. 28 The primary goals of the
project are to:
¥ Identify assets threatened by climate change and the magnitude of the potential economic,
social, and environmental impacts;
¥ Identify potential strategies to minimize these impacts;
¥ Develop a decision-support tool to evaluate potential climate change impacts and community /
regional strategies;
¥ Identify the region’s top priorities and the near–term actions to implement an effective
regional scale adaptation response; and
¥ Facilitate and coordinate regional climate adaptation planning and implementation efforts for
Silicon Valley.
Silicon Valley 2.0 is assessing five exposure areas of climate change: Sea Level Rise, Coastal Storm
Surge, Riverine Flooding, Wildfire, and Extreme Heat. Vulnerability assessments and strategies for
adapting to these exposures are organized into nine separate categories of community assets:
¥ Shoreline protection (dikes and levees)
¥ Buildings + Properties
¥ Communications
¥ Ecosystems
¥ Energy
¥ Public Health (including vulnerable populations)
¥ Solid + Hazardous Waste
¥ Transportation
¥ Water + Wastewater
A decision support tool is being developed as part of the Silicon 2.0 project, which will allow local
governments in Santa Clara County to assess vulnerabilities and potential economic impacts of climate
change within their communities. The tool (see Figure 4.3) , which should be available in 2015, will
identify assets that will be exposed to climate change variables, estimates level of economic
consequence resulting from asset vulnerability, and allow users to select and prepare vulnerability and
risk reports. This project should provide the City of Palo Alto with a valuable resource for adaptation
planning going forward.
28
Santa
Clara
County
Office
of
Sustainability,
Silicon
Valley
2.0
Climate
Adaptation
Guidebook,
Administrative
Draft,
December
2,
2014.
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 65 of 124
Figure 4.3: Silicon Valley 2.0 Tool Screen Shot: Vulnerability Assessment Overview
Living with a Rising Bay (2011)29
In 2011, the San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission (BCDC) prepared this
shoreline vulnerability assessment to help local and regional government agencies and the public
understand how existing planning and management challenges will be exacerbated by climate change
and to assist in developing strategies for dealing with these challenges. The assessment focused on
shoreline development, the Bay ecosystem, and governance. The report provided the basis for a
subsequent amendment to the Bay Plan specifically addressing sea level rise. While the report
acknowledged the limitations of BCDC’s regulatory authority to ensure that sea rise is taken into
consideration in project planning, it also identified a number of strategies that the agency and others
can undertake to address issues identified in its vulnerability assessment. These are summarized in
Table 12-4 of the Bay Area IRWMP, and summarized in Table 4-2 below.
29
San
Francisco
Bay
Conservation
and
Development
Commission
(BCDC),
2011:
Living
with
a
Rising
Bay:
Vulnerability
and
Adaptation
in
San
Francisco
Bay
and
on
its
Shoreline.
Available
at:
http://www.bcdc.ca.gov/
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 66 of 124
Table 4-2: Summary of Sea Level Rise Adaptation Strategies Identified by BCDC
Shoreline Development
General
Strategies
¥ Conduct risk assessments for shoreline areas and larger shoreline projects.
¥ Design for the Long-Term. Design projects to be resilient to a mid-century
sea level rise projection and adaptable to longer-term impacts.
¥ Consider Impacts. Build projects that do not negatively impact the Bay and
do not increase risks to public safety, or if projects do increase flood risks,
ensure that regional public benefits outweigh the increased risk of flooding.
¥ Incorporate Flood Protection. Protect new projects from future storm
activity and sea level rise by using setbacks, elevating structures, designing
structures that tolerate flooding or other effective measures.
¥ Avoid Filling the Bay. Set aside land on the upland side of levees to allow for
future levee widening to support additional levee height so that no fill is placed
in the Bay.
¥ Preserve Public Access. Design and construct shoreline protection to avoid
blocking physical and visual public access.
Public Access
Strategies
¥ Design to Avoid Impacts. Site, design, manage and maintain public access to
avoid significant adverse impacts from sea level rise and shoreline flooding.
¥ Accommodate Future Conditions. Design any public access to remain viable
in the event of future sea level rise or flooding, or provide equivalent access to
be provided nearby.
Bay Ecosystem
General
Strategies
¥ Preserve Sensitive Habitat. Preserve and enhance habitat in undeveloped
areas that are both vulnerable to future flooding and have current or potential
value for important species.
¥ Incorporate Habitat into Shoreline Protection Design. Design shoreline
protection projects to include provisions for establishing marsh and transitional
upland vegetation as part of the protective structure, wherever feasible.
¥ Include Buffers. Include a buffer, where feasible, between shoreline
development and habitats to protect wildlife and provide space for marsh
migration as sea level rises.
Research and
Planning
¥ Conduct Research and Monitoring. Conduct comprehensive Bay sediment
research and monitoring to understand sediment processes necessary to
sustain and restore wetlands.
¥ Update Targets to Accommodate Climate Change. Update regional habitat
conservation and restoration targets to achieve a Bay ecosystem resilient to
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 67 of 124
climate change and sea level rise.
Governance
Regional
Conservation
Strategy
¥ Adaptive Management. Develop a regional strategy for conservation and
development of the Bay and its shoreline that incorporates adaptive
management.
¥ SB 375. Ensure that the strategy is consistent with the climate change
mitigation goals of SB 375 and the principles of the California Climate
Adaptation Strategy.
¥ Update. Update the strategy regularly to reflect changing conditions and
scientific information.
Mapping ¥ Map Vulnerable Areas. Include maps of shoreline areas that are vulnerable to
flooding based on projections of future sea level rise and shoreline flooding.
¥ Consult Authorities. Prepare the maps under the direction of a qualified
engineer and regularly update them in consultation with government agencies
with authority over flood protection
Integration ¥ Long-Term Planning. Identify and encourage the development of long-term
regional flood protection strategies that may be beyond the fiscal resources of
individual local agencies.
¥ Incorporate Multiple Agencies. Develop a framework for integrating the
adaptation responses of multiple government agencies.
¥ Integrate with Local Processes. Provide information, tools, and financial
resources to help local governments integrate regional climate change
adaptation planning into local community design processes.
¥ Environmental Justice. Address environmental justice and social equity
issues.
¥ Hazards and Emergencies. Integrate hazard mitigation and emergency
preparedness planning with adaptation planning.
Adapting to Rising Tides (ART)30
ART is a collaborative planning effort, led by the San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development
Commission (BCDC) and the NOAA Coastal Services Center, to understand how San Francisco Bay
Area communities can adapt to sea level rise and storm event flooding. The ART Project has
engaged local, regional, state and federal agencies, as well as non-profit and private stakeholders, to
30
San
Francisco
Bay
Conservation
and
Development
Commission
(BCDC)
and
the
NOAA
Coastal
Services
Center,
2011:
Adapting
to
Rising
Tides;
project
information
and
resources
available
at
http://www.adaptingtorisingtides.org/
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 68 of 124
explore how the Bay Area can increase resilience to sea level rise and storm events while protecting
critical ecosystem and community services.
The ART pilot project focused on a portion of the Alameda County shoreline, from Emeryville to Union
City. The pilot project formed a working group of the subregion’s diverse stakeholders, including staff
at local, county, regional, state and federal agencies that work in the subregion, as well as some
private interests with investments in the study area, to assess the subregion’s vulnerability and risk
associated with sea level rise and storm events. A portfolio of possible adaptation responses was then
developed for the ART subregion, which now serve as starting points for further adaption planning that
will need to occur at multiple scales in the region. BCDC and its partners are now transitioning ART
from a pilot project to regional program that will provide tools, data, and resources to local
communities around the Bay.
The ART pilot project identified many planning issues that are relevant across the Bay region at most
planning scales. The ART pilot project report highlights the general need for more high quality data
and information to improve the understanding of vulnerability and risk. These information gaps
include:
¥ Limited understanding of how groundwater and salinity levels along the shoreline will respond
to a rising Bay.
¥ Limited understanding of how tidal marshes and managed marshes will respond to sea level
rise. There is a lack of information on how these dynamic systems will be affected by changes
in the shoreline, and in particular by structural solutions such as levees and berms that can
change tide, wave or sediment conditions.
¥ Limited information on the ownership, location and condition of energy, pipeline,
telecommunication, and stormwater infrastructure is particularly difficult to obtain, as it does
not currently exist or is not publically available, up-to-date, or easily accessible.
¥ A lack of centrally coordinated, up-to-date, accurate information about hazardous material
sites and contaminated lands is a barrier to planning for future flood risks. Many commercial
and industrial land uses generate, treat, store or transport hazardous materials, and a number
of shoreline parks in the subregion are built on closed landfills. These types of land uses are
particularly vulnerable as flooding could result in a release or mobilization of potentially
harmful materials.
¥ Flood risk maps for many shoreline communities around the Bay that remain outdated or
inadequate in terms of predicting future changes due to sea level rise.
The ART pilot project also highlighted the risk to assets that function as interconnected networks, such
as highways, rail corridors, utility infrastructure, and systems of shoreline protection along the Bay’s
edge, where disruption to one segment can cause cascading, secondary impacts to adjacent and
distant segments, rendering the entire systems highly vulnerable. Much of the networked
infrastructure in the Bay Area is essential to day-to-day community and economic functions, and is
critical during an emergency or disaster. These networked systems typically represent myriad
stakeholders, jurisdictions, and management systems. It is important for local jurisdictions to
understand dependencies on regional networked infrastructure and climate-related vulnerabilities and
risks they represent.
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 69 of 124
Cal-adapt31
Following the 2009 publishing of the California Climate Adaptation Strategy, the California Natural
Resources Agency in partnership with UC Berkeley’s Geospatial Innovation Facility (GIF) and the
California Energy Commission’s Public Interest Energy Research (PIER) Program developed the Cal-
adapt web-based climate adaptation planning tool. Cal-adapt allows planners and other decision
makers to identify potential climate change risks in specific geographic areas throughout the state. It
synthesizes volumes of existing downscaled climate change scenarios and climate impact research and
presents it in an easily available, graphical layout that is intended to benefit local planning efforts.
Maps and data can be downloaded in a variety of tabular and GIS formats. Interactive maps and
charts are provided for looking changes over time under different GHG emissions scenarios for:
¥ Temperature: monthly and decadal averages
¥ Temperature: degrees of change
¥ Temperature: extreme heat events
¥ Snowpack: decadal averages
¥ Precipitation: decadal averages
¥ Sea Level Rise: threatened areas
¥ Wildfire: fire risk areas
31
Cal-‐adapt
web-‐based
climate
adaptation
planning
tool
available
at:
www.cal-‐adapt.org
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 70 of 124
Community Assets
Community assets considered in the vulnerability analysis include City-owned or operated facilities
deemed critical for operations, utilities, and risk management, and other assets that are important to
community health, safety, and well-being. It also includes the residents and businesses of Palo Alto.
For a full list of community assets, see Appendix C.
The City’s 2010 LHMP identifies 50 critical facilities related to potable water supply, shelter, fire
suppression, emergency response, electricity supply, natural gas supply, stormwater management,
wastewater treatment, and city administration. The LHMP list provided the starting point for
identifying City facilities that are exposed to climate change hazards. Building from that list, this
Adaptation Roadmap assesses vulnerabilities in the following eleven functional categories of
community assets. Appendix C includes a map showing the locations of these community assets,
identified by number and by functional asset category.
Emergency Response and Communications (ER): Facilities that are critical in times of
emergencies and natural disasters, including hospitals and other medical facilities, telecommunications
infrastructure, cooling centers, police and fire stations, emergency operations centers and evacuation
shelters. The City-owned dark fiber optic backbone provides access to key City facilities and offices
such as IT Infrastructure Services, electric utility substations, traffic signals, libraries and the
Wastewater Treatment Plant. The majority of the City’s business parks (e.g. Stanford Research Park)
and commercial properties are also passed by the fiber backbone.
Energy Security and Infrastructure (ES): The City’s energy supply and supporting infrastructure,
including electrical substations and transmission lines, natural gas lines and pumping stations, and
emergency generators. Changes in precipitation patterns caused by climate change are expected to
directly affect the availability of hydropower for the City, since the city receives a percentage of power
generated by the Western Area Power Administration’s Central Valley Project and the Calaveras
Hydroelectric Project. In addition to the anticipated decline in overall precipitation, the quality and
timing of winter precipitation will also impact Palo Alto’s power supply.
Water Security and Supply Infrastructure (WS): Natural and manmade water systems for
supplying clean, safe and reliable water supply for the City of Palo Alto, including potable water
reservoirs, groundwater wells, piping systems, pumping stations, turnouts, and water treatment
infrastructure. As described in the UWMP, the City of Palo Alto receives 100% of its water supply from
the City and County of San Francisco’s Regional Water System (RWS), operated by the SFPUC, which
is supplied 85% on average from distant Sierra Nevada mountain watersheds. Palo Alto’s water utility
operations and dispatch of service vehicles are centralized at the Palo Alto Municipal Services.
Wastewater Management (WW): Palo Alto’s wastewater collection and treatment infrastructure
including the Regional Water Quality Control Plant (RWQCP) operations, approximately 208 miles of
sewer lines, and treated effluent outfalls. Wastewater operations and service vehicles are centralized
at the Palo Alto Municipal Services Center.
Stormwater Management (SW): Palo Alto’s stormwater management system is designed to convey
the 10-year return 6-hour storm event. The system consists of approximately 107 miles of pipeline
and 2,750 catch basins, 800 manholes and 6 pump stations. This infrastructure conveys runoff into
one of four local creeks: San Francisquito Creek, Matadero Creek, Barron Creek, or Adobe Creek. San
Franciscquito Creek drains unimpeded into San Francisco Bay. The other three creeks drain into the
Palo Alto Flood Basin (PAFB) before draining to the Bay.
The PAFB (for location, see Appendix C), constructed in 1956, provides flood management for the
City, as well as providing wildlife habitat. The PAFB consists of levees surrounding a 600-acre portion
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 71 of 124
of the Palo Alto Baylands that extends east-northeast from Highway 101. By preventing tides from
inundating the Flood Basin, the levees provide storage capacity for creek discharge and reduce the
City’s coastal flood risk. The Basin receives inflow from Matadero Creek, Adobe Creek, Barron Creek,
and the City of Mountain View’s Coast Casey Storm Water Pumping Station. The Basin can store
discharges from these sources and release them to San Francisco Bay through tide gates when the
water level in the Basin is higher than the Bay water level. The tide gates are controlled by the Santa
Clara Valley Water District. The Basin has the capacity to retain several hours of high creek discharge
while waiting for a low tide when stored flood waters can be released to the Bay. Starting in 1973, the
tide gates were modified to enable a muted tidal influence while preserving water levels in the Basin
close to the Bay’s low tide level. Since that time, the basin has been designated as a tidal wetlands
nature preserve by the City, providing critical habitat protection for tidal marsh wildlife.
Palo Alto’s stormwater operations and dispatch of service vehicles are centralized at the Palo Alto
Municipal Services Center.
Transportation Infrastructure (TI): Critical roads, and bridges, and other transportation
infrastructure including the Palo Alto Airport. Operational control of the Palo Alto Airport was recently
transferred to the City from Santa Clara County. Though the LHMP does not encompass critical
transportation infrastructure assets, the OES recognizes both the airport and two Highway 101
overpasses (San Antonio Road and Oregon/Embarcadero Road) as potential critical points of failure in
an emergency because they provide a transportation link between many of the City’s critical facilities
(e.g., emergency response vehicles and operations for the Departments of Public Works and Utilities)
and the bulk of the City’s population, which reside on opposite sides of U.S. 101.
Shoreline Flood Management (SF): Currently, much of Palo Alto’s shoreline is exposed to coastal
flood hazard, as indicated by FEMA’s mapping of the 1% annual chance floodplain (Figure 6.6).
Although the existing levees provide some degree of protection from coastal flooding, these levees are
not certified by FEMA. The levees are not certified because their crest elevation is below the 1% water
level freeboard requirements and they likely do not meet geotechnical specifications. Since the levees
lack certification, FEMA considers the levees to fail at stopping or reducing the inland propagation of
the 1% still water level.
Public Health (PH): The health-related impacts of climate change, with a special focus on the City’s
populations who are most vulnerable those impacts, including those with special needs, living in
poverty, or most exposed to the physical impacts of climate change. In terms of public health, climate
change vulnerability is a function of an individual or a community’s ability to respond and adapt to
climate stressors, which in turn is dependent on socioeconomic characteristics and underlying health
and physical abilities.
Buildings and Property (BP): This asset category includes homes, businesses, commercial and
industrial buildings, government buildings, schools, parks and recreation areas, and other property
assets. Palo Alto encompasses a mix of high value private properties that are important to the well-
being of the community, including several commercial zones, mixed use residential/commercial areas,
neighbourhoods of stately and historical homes, high-tech and light industrial employment districts,
and several concentrated employment centers (Stanford Research Park, Stanford Medical Center, East
Bayshore, and San Antonio Road/Bayshore Corridor). In 2013, the median home sales price in Palo
Alto was $1,720,000, more than 2.5 times that of the County median price of $645,000.
Solid Waste/Hazardous Materials Management(SM): Solid waste facilities including landfills,
materials recovery facilities, transfer stations, composting facilities; also includes hazardous waste
management facilities, contaminated land sites, and the inactive City-owned Class III landfill and
landfill gas collection system that could be vulnerable to flooding and erosion from sea level rise.
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Natural Areas/Ecosystems (NE): This includes natural environments and habitats considered
valuable or essential to the health and well-being of the community, including the rich variety of
plants, animals, and other organisms that reside in City of Palo. The Natural Environment element of
the City’s Comprehensive Plan (“Embracing the New Century”) identifies 29 neighborhood and district
parks in the City totaling approximately 190 acres and larger open space preserves primarily located
in the southern foothills but also along the Bay on the northeastern edge of the City. In addition to
these facilities, there are a variety of other facilities in Palo Alto that serve to reduce the demand for
City-owned and operated natural and recreational areas. These include lands owned by Palo Alto
Unified School District used for recreation, Stanford University open space and recreation lands,
privately owned recreational facilities, land managed by conservation groups, and State and regional
parks in the vicinity of Palo Alto. Approximately 59 percent of land within the Palo Alto City limit is
park land, open space, or public conservation land, compared to 40.5 percent in 1996. Palo Alto’s
open space preserves, located primarily in the southern foothills but also extending along the Bay on
the northeastern edge of the City, provide opportunities for hiking, biking, fishing, picnicking,
camping, nature study, and non-motorized boating. They also have significant ecological and aesthetic
value, providing important habitat for wildlife and a scenic backdrop to the urban area.
Other Important Community Assets
The Cultural Resources element of the Draft 2014 General Plan outlines the City’s archeologically
sensitive areas, which range from prehistoric sites and artifacts from early communities in the area
and historic structures from the more recent past. The City also contains several paleontological
resources including site where fossils of extinct marine mammals and other prehistoric plant and
animal life have been found. The City maintains an inventory of historic sites, which contains
approximately 450 structures of historic merit ranging from the thousand-year old “El Palo Alto”
redwood tree, where early Spanish explorers are believed to have camped, to the HP garage, where
Bill Hewlett and Dave Packard started the Hewlett Packard Company in 1939.
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Climate
Change
Exposures
Using Cal-Adapt and other available tools, ESA summarized the type, magnitude, and onset of various
local exposures of climate change that Palo Alto can expect to experience by the years 2050 and
2100, as predicted for the high emissions (A2) and low emissions (B1) scenarios by global climate
models. The exposure analysis considers the effects of climate change on local temperature, local
precipitation, drought, wildfire, and sea level rise, as well as the secondary exposure pathways facing
the City of Palo Alto.
Temperature
California in general expects overall hotter conditions for both mean and extreme temperatures. An
increase in heat waves and wildfires are expected to be among the earliest climate impacts
experienced across the state. 32
Figure 6.1, generated from Cal-Adapt, indicates that between A2 and B1 scenarios, the Palo Alto can
expect to experience a rise in average annual temperature of about 2 to 6 degrees Fahrenheit above
the historical average by the end of the century. Figure 6.2 shows the expected increase in extreme
heat days, defined in the Cal-Adapt tool as a day in April through October where the maximum
temperature exceeds the 98th historical percentile of maximum temperatures based on daily
temperature data between 1961-1990. By the year 2100, Palo Alto is expected to experience
approximately 30 extreme heat days per year under the low emissions (B1) scenario, compared to a
historical average of about 4; under the high emissions scenario (A2), the expected number of
extreme heat days doubles to approximately 60, as shown in Figure 6.3.
Figure 6.1: Projected Change in Annual Average Temperature for A2 and B1 Scenarios
32
California
Natural
Resources
Agency,
2014,
Safeguarding
California:
Reducing
Climate
Risk;
An
update
to
the
2009
California
Climate
Adaptation
Strategy,
http://resources.ca.gov/climate/safeguarding/
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 74 of 124
SOURCE: Cal-adapt.org (11/26/2014)
Figure 6.2: Number of Extreme Heat Days per Year low emissions (B1) scenario
SOURCE: Cal-adapt.org (11/26/2014)
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Figure 6.3: Number of Extreme Heat Days per Year low emissions (B1) scenario
SOURCE: Cal-adapt.org (11/26/2014)
Because of these temperature increases, heat-related illness and mortality are expected to increase.
Though extreme heat events in coastal areas like the City are not expected to be as severe or as long-
lasting as further inland, the resident population is not as well prepared or equipped to deal with
higher temperatures. Air conditioning is far less common, for example. Outdoor workers, elderly
populations, and infants are particularly vulnerable to extreme temperatures.
Higher temperatures and drier summer conditions produce higher levels of ozone and increase the
potential for wildfires, both of which could lead to declines in air quality and negative impacts to
respiratory and cardiovascular health.
Precipitation
Local precipitation exposures encompass changes in annual averages as well as peak events during
extreme storms. Since the City already has an arid climate, it is sensitive to a decrease in annual local
precipitation, which can cause local drought, impacting local flora and contributing to wildfire risk (for
regional drought and impacts to water supply, see Section 0 below; for wildfire risk see Section 0
below). An increase in local precipitation during extreme storms can increase the peak storm runoff,
thereby increasing the risk of flooding due to the overtopping of stormwater channels, pipes, pumps,
and creeks.
Figure 6.4 shows that the average annual precipitation in the City of Palo Alto, when averaged across
global climate models and decades, is expected to decrease slightly by 2100 under both emissions
scenarios. Individual GCMs predict larger changes, with some GCMs predicting decreased annual
precipitation and other GCMs predicting increased annual precipitation. These opposing directions of
change result in the relatively small net change when averaging all GCMs. This range in GCM
predictions is representative of the current uncertainty as to the potential effects of climate change on
precipitation.
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Figure 6.4: Decadal Average Precipitation to 2100 for A2 and B1 scenarios
SOURCE: Cal-adapt.org (11/26/2014)
Extreme storms include periods of intense rainfall that can overwhelm the City’s storm drain and creek
flood management systems, causing flooding. The current stormwater drainage system is designed for
extreme precipitation based on historic climate data. Based on the GCM that projects generally wetter
conditions for the Bay area, there some chance that the precipitation from individual storms could
increase by approximately 10%, as shown in Table 6-1. Selecting the wetter GCM and the higher end
of the precipitation distribution is more conservative and thus more risk averse.
Table 6-1: Projected Changes in Peak Precipitation
Extreme Precipitation Time horizon Emissions
Scenario
Average for Watersheds
Overlapping City Boundary
% Change in 98th percentile 1-day rainfall
relative to 1970-2000 average
(Parallel Climate Model - Wet GCM)
2050
B1 6%
A2 4%
2100
B1 12%
A2 5%
Along the Bayshore, higher average sea levels will elevate Bay water levels, which can impede the
drainage of precipitation via the creeks. This exposure will be felt most prominently at the Palo Alto
Flood Basin, which stores creek discharge within the coastal flood plan and can only drain to the Bay
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through tide gates when Bay water levels are sufficiently low. Since this exposure is caused by sea
level rise, it is addressed in Section 0 below.
Drought
As outlined in the City’s 2010 UWMP and the Bay Area IRWMP, regional changes in precipitation and
temperature patterns present a long-term risk to the region’s water supply. Expected impacts include
reductions in the average annual Sierra snowpack and a shift in snowmelt runoff to earlier in the year;
changes in the timing, intensity and variability of precipitation, and an increased amount of
precipitation falling as rain instead of as snow; long-term changes in watershed vegetation and
increased incidence of wildfires that could affect water quality. Higher temperatures would also
increase evaporation which in turn would increase irrigation demand.
The primary drought-related risk of concern to Palo Alto is the long-term viability of its water supply,
as described in earlier sections. A related risk of concern is the secondary impact of drought in
reducing the City’s available hydroelectric supply. The LHMP considers exposure to drought and
concludes that the City of Palo Alto does not have any unique concerns regarding the hazard of
drought as presented in Section 4. However, that analysis does not consider the wider implications of
regional drought on the City’s water supply. More frequent or more intense droughts could also stress
local flora and fauna.
Wildfire
Wildfire frequency and intensity are expected to increase in California due to warmer temperatures,
longer dry seasons and decreased plant moisture. This is especially true in mountainous areas along
the northern coast and the Sierra Nevada. More fires will increase public safety risks, damage
property, stress local fire suppression capabilities and drive up emergency response costs to the local
government. Wildfires also impact watersheds, water quality, and wildlife habitat.
The City of Palo Alto has a Foothills Fire Management Plan, which has been adopted as a Community
Wildland Protection Plan: http://www.cityofpaloalto.org/civicax/filebank/documents/27163
Figure 6.5: Change in Fire Exposure Risk, Showing Community Asset Locations
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Figure 6.5 shows the expected change in fire exposure risk in the City from current baseline (2000 to
2010) to the end of the century (2070 to 2100), based on recent modeling done by the California
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 79 of 124
Department of Water Resources (DWR).33 DWR assessed data on fire probability generated by
Krawchuk and Moritz (2012)34 to map the probability of 1 or more fires occurring within 30-year time
periods from 1971-2000, 2010-2039, 2040-2069, and 2070-2099. The map in Figure 6.5 shows that
the risk of fire will greatly increase by 2070 in the hills and open space preserves of Palo Alto’s
southwestern corner, and moderately in the areas west of Interstate 280. (Note: for security
purposes, critical infrastructure assets are not shown on the map; these include electrical substations,
gas receiving stations, water reservoirs, well sites, water booster stations and water receiving
stations.)
Sea Level Rise
As discussed in Section 0, the 2012 NRC report projects 11 inches of sea level rise in the Bay by 2050
(with a range of 5 to 24 inches) and 36 inches by 2100 (with a range of 17 to 66 inches).
Figure 6.6 shows the City’s current coastal flood hazard and future exposure from sea level rise
inundation (Note: for security purposes, critical infrastructure assets are not shown on the map; these
include electrical substations, gas receiving stations, water reservoirs, well sites, water booster
stations and water receiving stations). This mapping is based on the proximity to the Bay, ground
surface elevation, extreme Bay water levels, and the lack of certified levees. As delineated by the
orange line and blue crosshatch in Figure 6.6, much of the City northeast of Middlefield Road is in the
existing FEMA 100-year (or 1% annual chance) coastal flood zone. This is because the land surface
elevations in this area are below the estimated 100-year Bay water level and the levees have not been
certified by FEMA. The FEMA coastal floodplain surrounds multiple City critical assets.
The City’s additional exposure to coastal flooding due to sea level rise was estimated with projections
by the USGS (Knowles, 201035). For the first mapped increase of sea level, 19 inches (50 cm), there is
not much change in inundation area because of the relatively steep land surface slope between the
existing 100-year water level and that predicted level for 19 inches of sea level rise. As a result, there
are not many additional structures in the FEMA floodplain. However, inundation in this area would be
more frequent and deeper, thereby increasing expected damages. Correspondingly, to reduce these
damages, the design elevation would increase for the levee crest or for the first habitable floor of
structures not sheltered by a certified levee. With the second mapped increase of sea level, 39 inches
(100 cm), there is significant increase in inundated area, as indicated by the darker blue shading. This
greater change in inundated area for the same increment in sea level rise (i.e. the additional 20
inches) occurs because the increment occurs over a flatter land surface slope. Like the first increment
of sea level rise, the increase to 39 inches would also create increases of inundation frequency, depth,
and damages.
FEMA recently developed updated total water levels and wave run-up distributions for its Regional
Coastal Hazard Modeling Study for South San Francisco Bay (DHI, 201336). These distributions provide
33
DWR,
2014:
Fire
Exposure
Assessment
Methodology.
Climate
Change
Team:
Andrew
Schwarz,
Aaron
Cuthbertson,
Erin
Chappell,
Michelle
Selmon.
34
Krawchuk,
M.
A.,
and
M.
A.
Moritz
(Simon
Fraser
University;
University
of
California,
Berkeley).
2012.
Fire
and
Climate
Change
in
California.
California
Energy
Commission.
Publication
number:
CEC-‐500-‐2012-‐026.
35
Knowles,
N.
2010.
Potential
Inundation
Due
to
Rising
Sea
Levels
in
the
San
Francisco
Bay
Region.
San
Francisco
Estuary
and
Watershed
Science,
8:1.
36
DHI.
2013.
Regional
Coastal
Hazard
Modeling
Study
for
South
San
Francisco
Bay
Final
Draft
Report.
Prepared
for
FEMA
Region
IX.
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 80 of 124
recurrence interval data for water levels and waves for present day conditions. This study provides
recent, local estimates of present Bay water levels in the absolute North American Vertical Datum
(NAVD). By adding sea level rise projections (NRC, 2012), future water levels can be projected, as
summarized in Table 6-2. Note that these values do not include the effect of waves, which, depending
on local shoreline characteristics, may increase flood hazard. Comparing the values between columns
in Table 6-2 characterizes the effect of sea level rise on water level frequency. For example, the
present 10-year water level of 9.7 ft NAVD will occur nearly annually as a King Tide by mid-century.
Similarly, the present 100-year water level of 11.0 ft NAVD will be exceeded annually by a King Tide
by end-of-century.
Figure 6.6: Palo Alto Community Assets at Risk from Sea Level Rise and Associated Flooding
Table 6-2: Palo Alto Shoreline Bay Water Levels for Today (DHI, 2013) and for Projected
Sea Level Rise (NRC, 2012)
Water Level Present
ft NAVD
Mid-century
11 inches
End-of-century
36 inches
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ft NAVD ft NAVD
MSL 3.5 4.4 6.4
MHHW 7.4 8.3 10.4
King Tide (Annual Astronomic Peak) 8.6 9.5 11.6
10-year 9.7 10.6 12.7
100-year 11.0 11.9 14.0
Even if peak precipitation and associated runoff are relatively unaffected by climate change as
currently projected (see Section 0), sea level rise could impact the stormwater management system
since the system ultimately drains into the Bay. The discharge rate to the Bay decreases as Bay water
levels increase. Reduced discharge rates will cause higher water levels upstream in the stormwater
system, a process sometimes referred to as ‘backwatering’. Stormwater pump stations that already
rely on mechanical action to discharge water are typically not that sensitive to the water levels in the
Bay (ESA PWA, 201237). However, discharges that rely solely on gravity can be sensitive to Bay water
levels. The PAFB, which receives discharge from three of the City’s creeks, drains by gravity to the
Bay. Because of tide gates at the Flood Basin’s outlet, discharge to the Bay only occurs when Bay
water levels are lower than water levels in the Flood Basin.
Other coastal flood hazard assessments are underway or planned for the City’s shoreline. These
assessments include:
¥ FEMA is in the process of revising its 100-year coastal floodplain maps for Santa Clara County,
including the City. This revised mapping only considers current conditions and does not include
sea level rise. It differs from the existing maps (i.e., what is shown in Figure 6.6) in that it
uses the most recent hydrodynamic modeling (DHI, 2013) and considering the role of waves
as per the most recent FEMA mapping guidelines (FEMA, 200538).
¥ The collaborative project Our Coast, Our Future (OCOF) recently released sea level rise
inundation maps for the Bay area (Ballard et al., 201439). For the scenario with no sea level
rise and the annual storm, OCOF results predict inundation of more than 600 acres of
developed City property. Flooding this extensive has not been observed in Palo Alto, indicating
that the OCOF modeling has issues resolving storm-induced water levels and/or levee
topography in this area. OCOF’s predictions of scenarios with higher water levels due to sea
level rise and storm intensity are generally consistent with the USGS projections shown in
Figure 6.6.
37
ESA
PWA.
2012.
Shoreline
Regional
Park
Community
Sea
Level
Rise
Study
Feasibility
Report
and
Capital
Improvement
Program.
Prepared
for
the
City
of
Mountain
View.
38
FEMA.
2005.
Final
Draft
Guidelines
for
Coastal
Flood
Hazard
Analysis
and
Mapping
for
the
Pacific
Coast
of
the
United
States.
A
Joint
Project
by
FEMA
Region
IX,
FEMA
Region
X,
FEMA
Headquarters.
39
Ballard,
G.,
Barnard,
P.L.,
Erikson,
L.,
Fitzgibbon,
M.,
Higgason,
K.,
Psaros,
M.,
Veloz,
S.,
Wood,
J.
2014.
Our
Coast
Our
Future
(OCOF).
[web
application].
Petaluma,
California.
www.pointblue.org/ocof.
(Accessed:
January
5,
2015).
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 82 of 124
¥ Santa Clara Valley Water District, in collaboration with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, is in
the process of analyzing the City’s flood hazard for existing conditions with sea level rise for
the Shoreline Study. The results of this analysis are expected in 2016.
In addition to these primary exposures, sea level rise may also entail several secondary exposures.
For instance, the higher Bay water levels may expose portions of the shoreline to additional erosion
potential. These newly exposed portions may not have suitable bank protection to resist erosion. In
addition, increased Bay water levels will alter the groundwater gradients along the shoreline, possibly
causing landward salinity intrusion. This change will be most directly impact to the surface aquifer,
which is not currently used for water supply. However, this surface aquifer does interact with some
City assets, such as infiltration into the City’s stormwater collection system and the landfill.
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Vulnerability
Vulnerability is the degree to which facilities, systems, and services are susceptible to the climate
change exposure (changes in sea level rise, temperature, and precipitation). This section is organized
around eleven functional categories of community assets, systems and services that are vulnerable to
climate change. In evaluating vulnerability, both the exposure to climate change impacts and the
consequences are considered. As defined by the California Climate Adaptation Planning Guide (Steps 1
through 5 in Figure 2.1), vulnerability is determined by the following:
¥ Exposure: What climate change effects will a community experience?
¥ Sensitivity: What aspects of a community (people, structures, and functions) will be affected?
¥ Potential Impacts: How will climate change affect the points of sensitivity?
¥ Adaptive Capacity: What is currently being done to address the impacts?
¥ Risk and Onset: How likely are the impacts and how quickly will they occur?
The following sections provide preliminary vulnerability assessments of City of Palo Alto functional
asset categories, identifying specific assets at risk as well as general services or capabilities at risk,
based on exposures and potential impacts from climate change. It is important to point out the inter-
related nature of these functional categories with respect to climate change vulnerability. Due to
cascading impacts, it is not always obvious where true vulnerabilities lie. For example, the loss of
power during a storm could impact the ability of the local waste water treatment plant to adequately
treat inflowing sewage, while stormwater overflow that is directed to the plant could exceed the
plant’s treatment capacity. The combination of these factors leads to a much bigger emergency than
does each factor in isolation. Thus, it is important for the City’s planners and managers to consider
inter-related systems when assessing vulnerability.
Emergency Response and Communications (ER)
This functional category includes facilities that are critical in times of emergencies and natural
disasters, including hospitals and other medical facilities, telecommunications infrastructure, cooling
centers, police and fire stations, emergency operations centers and evacuation shelters. In Palo Alto,
higher average sea levels in the future will lead to storms impacting the Bay shore more frequently
with higher storm surges, more extensive inland flooding, and increased erosion. If more frequent or
severe natural disasters occur, existing emergency response and communications services may not be
adequate to deal with the consequences. Extreme storms and extreme heat combined with drought
may also strain emergency response systems.
Table 7.1 summarizes the primary vulnerabilities of Emergency Response and Communications
facilities and systems within the City. Refer to Figures 6.5 and 6.6 for the locations of assets at risk
from flooding and wildfire. The LHMP identifies Fire Station #8 as being located in a high risk fire
hazard zone. The City staffs a brushfire rig at Fire Station #8 on red flag days, and is exploring the
feasibility of installing a fire monitoring system in the foot hills, along with increased outreach and
education to the area’s residents.
The City of Palo Alto operates its own fiber optic utility, with CPAU providing day-to-day responsibility
for operating and maintaining the dark fiber optic backbone system (“fiber system”). The 41-mile fiber
system supports multiple network developers and service providers, and is routed to pass and provide
access to key City facilities and offices such as IT Infrastructure Services, electric utility substations,
traffic signals, libraries and the Wastewater Treatment Plant. The majority of the City’s business parks
(e.g. Stanford Research Park) and commercial properties are also passed by the fiber backbone.
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Silicon Valley 2.0 assessed fiber optic line location data provided by Metromedia, the major provider of
internet infrastructure in the Bay Area, and found no fiber optic lines vulnerable to sea level rise in
Santa Clara County, but a small portion of fiber optic line near San Francisquito Creek in Palo Alto was
found to be within the 100 year FEMA floodplain and vulnerable to fluvial flooding. Several
communication towers in the southwestern portion of Palo Alto were also found to vulnerable to
wildfire hazard. The Silicon Valley 2.0 report findings did not consider the dark fiber network operated
by City of Palo Alto.
TABLE 7-1. Climate Change Vulnerability of Emergency Response Capabilities
Function Facilities and services that are essential to the safety and survival of the City
population in times of emergencies and natural disasters, includes emergency
response capabilities, communications, and critical City operations
Exposure Potential Impacts Assets at Risk
Temperature ¥ Higher temperatures
combined with dry conditions
increase wildfire risk.
¥ Fire suppression capability
Precipitation ¥ Higher risk of fluvial flooding
of critical facilities such as
MSC and key access roads
¥ Potential to interrupt power
supply.
¥ Municipal Service Center (map
#8),
¥ Utilities Control Center (map #6)
¥ Low lying access roads (e.g.,
Oregon Expressway 101
Underpass)
¥ City of Palo Alto dark fiber
network
¥ Metromedia fiber optic line near
San Francisquito Creek
Drought ¥ Dry conditions increase the
risk of wildfire.
¥ Stress on water supply
¥ Fire suppression capability
Wildfire ¥ Excessively dry periods
increase the risk of wildfires
at the urban-wild interface
along the eastern portion of
the City.
¥ Fire suppression capability,
including Fire Station #8 (#22 on
map). “Red flag” fire days can
stretch the capacity of the
emergency response capabilities
of the Palo Alto Fire Department.
¥ Communication towers in the
foothills
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Sea Level Rise ¥ Increased frequency and
depth of coastal flooding
¥ Increased potential for fluvial
flooding due to reduced
drainage to the Bay
¥ Flooding of low-lying roads,
highways, and airport could
hinder or prevent access by
emergency vehicles.
¥ Flooding of operation and
control centers could disrupt
critical communications,
emergency response and
recovery, and utility
operations.
¥ Municipal Service Center (map
#8), including utility vehicles for
the Public Works and Utilities
Departments; access roads to
MSC also at risk
¥ Utility Control Center (map #6)
¥ Palo Alto Airport: used as
helicopter base by Office of
Emergency Services
¥ City of Palo Alto dark fiber
network
The web site City-Data.com identifies the following hospitals and medical centers in Palo Alto.40 None
of these facilities are considered vulnerable to flooding, sea level rise, or wildfire risk through the year
2100, based on their locations relative to these impacts as shown on Figures 6.5 and 6.6:
¥ Lucile Packard Stanford Pediatric Dialysis Facility (725 Welch Road Pediatric Dialysis Rm
1229);
¥ Stanford Home Care (1520 Page Mill Road);
¥ Lucile Salter Packard Children's Hospital At Stanford (725 Welch Road);
¥ Palo Alto VA Medical Center (Hospital, Acute Care - 3801 Miranda Avenue);
¥ Surgecenter Of Palo Alto (Hospital, 795 El Camino Real);
¥ Bay Healthcare - Palo Alto (Nursing Home, 4277 Miranda Ave);
¥ Casa Olga Intermediate Health Care Facility (Nursing Home, 180 Hamilton Avenue);
¥ Lytton Gardens Health Care Center (Nursing Home, 437 Webster Street);
¥ Palo Alto Nursing Center (Nursing Home, 911 Bryant Street);
¥ VI At Palo Alto (Nursing Home, 600 Sand Hill Road).
Energy Security and Infrastructure (ES)
40
City-‐Data.com:
http://www.city-‐data.com/city/Palo-‐Alto-‐California.html,
accessed
December
23,
2014.
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 86 of 124
This functional asset category includes critical local facilities for the City’s energy security including
power stations, transmission lines, gas pipelines, and the City’s reliance on regional infrastructure and
hydropower generation from Sierra Nevada watersheds. In addition to the anticipated decline in
overall precipitation, the quality and timing of winter precipitation will also impact Palo Alto’s power
supply.
Palo Alto’s energy utility operations and dispatch of service vehicles are centralized at the Palo Alto
Municipal Services Center, located at 3201 E. Bayshore Road.
Electricity and Power
Numerous studies have highlighted the impact of climate change on California’s energy infrastructure,
which in turn impacts power availability to the City. The California Energy Commission’s report (CEC‐
500‐2012‐057, Estimating Risk To California Energy Infrastructure From Projected Climate Change,
2012) highlights a constellation of negative climate change impacts on the grid system including
higher temperature impacts on power plant capacity, electricity generation, transmission lines,
substation capacity, and peak electricity demand; increased wildfire frequency or severity and the
resulting impacts near transmission lines; and sea level encroachment upon power plants,
substations, and natural gas facilities. The study suggests that up to 25 coastal power plants and 86
substations in California are at risk of flooding (or partial flooding) due to sea level rise.
The CEC study looks at impact on three timescales:
¥ Near-term (+2°C warming) impacts of between 1.4 to 13.9% decrease in hydropower, with an
average decline of 8.3%
¥ Mid-term (+4°C warming) impacts of between 3.6 to 31.8% decrease in hydro power with an
average decline of 15.4%
¥ Long-term (+6°C warming) impacts of between 5.8 to 35.2% decrease in hydro power with an
average decline of 20.3%.
Overall, the CEC study suggests that by end of century hydropower generation will drop from a
baseline of 17,413 GWh to 13,875 GWh in the study area (Sierra Nevada), which supplies 75% of
California’s hydro power. The study also shows that a majority of the reductions in hydropower
generation occur in the highly productive watersheds in the northern Sierra Nevada serving Palo Alto.
The City has recognized as well that changes in precipitation patterns caused by climate change will
directly affect the availability of hydropower for the City. The city receives a percentage of power
generated by the Western Area Power Administration’s Central Valley Project and the Calaveras
Hydroelectric Project. In addition to the impacts of reduce precipitation caused by a decline in
precipitation, the quality and timing of precipitation will also impact Palo Alto’s power supply. In
particular, reduced hydropower availability will result from overall higher altitudes for the snow line
therefore reducing late season inflows into reservoirs, more mid-winter rainfall events which will
reduce snowpack, and an overall reduction in water stored as snow above reservoirs. A review of
these risks by the City of Palo Alto suggest a 10 to 20% decline in water storage and generation from
the City’s hydro resources and a 20 to 40% decline in generation during peak June to September
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 87 of 124
periods in California by 2050.41 The figure below illustrates some of the multiple stresses and financial
risks to the City as a result of climate related changes in the hydropower supply.
Natural Gas Infrastructure
The City maintains four delivery “gate stations” where the city receives gas from the PG&E
transmission system. The city’s natural gas distribution network consists of about 205 miles of mains
(2” to 12” in diameter) and 18,000 service lines (0.5” to 6”) which connect customers with the service
mains.
A potential climate risk to the natural gas pipeline is inundation of pumping stations due to temporary
flooding or sea level rise. The City’s list of critical assets includes four natural gas stations. These are
located at 3241 E Bayshore Rd, 1735 Embarcadero, Alma & Colorado, and 1961 Old Page Mill Rd. The
first two of these stations lie within the potential inundation zone outlined by the ESA and BCDC risk
mapping (see Figure 6.6).
41
Van
Orsdol,
Karl
G.,
and
Karl
Knapp:
A
Practical
Look
at
Managing
Climate
Risk
–
A
Municipal
Utility
Perspective;
City
of
Palo
Alto;
available
at
http://www.cityofpaloalto.org/civicax/filebank/documents/7481
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 88 of 124
TABLE 7-2. Climate Change Vulnerability of Energy Security and Infrastructure
Function Facilities and systems essential to the supply and transmission of electricity and
natural gas to City residents, businesses and government services.
Exposure Potential Impacts Assets at Risk
Temperature ¥ Transformers exploding
¥ Overhead lines sagging
¥ More frequent and severe
heat waves lead to energy
usage spikes
¥ Thermal inefficiency in
generating plants could
reduce energy supplies to
grid system
¥ Degraded efficiency in
transmission lines could
disrupt supplies.
¥ Transmission Assets (PG&E
owned)
¥ Supply Assets due to:
¥ Reduced transmission grid
reliability
¥ Reduced transmission capability to
supply reserve power
¥ Increased congestion within load
pocket
Precipitation ¥ Flooding from San
Francisquito Creek
¥ Loss of access to facilities
¥ Utility Control Center (map #6)
¥ Municipal Service Center, including
utility vehicles (map #8)
¥ Adobe Creek Substation
¥ Utility Engineering Center (map
#3)
¥ Colorado substation
¥ Ames substation
Drought ¥ Reduced snowpack for
hydropower generation
¥ Insufficient hydropower
supplies to meet load
requirements, resulting in
the need to purchase
additional renewable energy
to replace the reduced
hydrogeneration while
maintaining a carbon neutral
electric supply portfolio
¥ Long-term hydroelectric power
supply risk
¥ Electric reserve fund could be
impacted by short term price
volatility.
¥ Short-term supply: Possible
brownouts and black outs if supply
disruption impacts larger grid
system
¥ Additional REC purchases required
if increased wholesale power
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 89 of 124
purchases required.
Wildfire ¥ Grid disruption could result
when wildfires disrupt or
impede grid transmission
interrupting the delivery of
energy supplies.
¥ Distribution/power lines in higher
risk zones near urban forests and
open spaces
¥ Gas station #3
¥ SLAC interconnect (planned)
Sea Level Rise ¥ Increased frequency and
depth of coastal flooding of
energy facilities
¥ Increased potential for fluvial
flooding due to reduced
drainage to the Bay
¥ Increased inundation and
rising groundwater may limit
access to facilities and
infrastructure for
maintenance and operations;
Inability to access
transmission towers.
¥ Utility Control Center (map #6)
¥ Municipal Service Center, including
utility vehicles (map #8); access
roads to MSC also at risk
¥ Utility Engineering Center (map
#3)
¥ Adobe Creek Substation
¥ Colorado substation
¥ Other at-ground substations in the
eastern areas of the city and in
underground locations.
Water and Wastewater
Water and Wastewater includes three functional asset categories of Water Supply, Wastewater
Management, and Stormwater Management.
Water Supply (WS)
This functional asset category includes natural and manmade water systems for supplying clean, safe
and reliable water supply for the City of Palo Alto, including potable water reservoirs, groundwater
wells, piping systems, pumping stations, turnouts, and water treatment infrastructure.
The City’s current water supply is highly vulnerable to drought, but the risk of failure is uncertain. The
City is dependent on City and County of San Francisco’s Regional Water System (RWS), operated by
SFPUC, for the bulk of its long-term water supply. During periods of extended drought, the ability of
SFPUC to supply its wholesale customers (including City of Palo Alto) is at risk, though SFPUC has
reported as recently as 2009 that it does not consider its regional supply to be at significant risk from
climate change through the year 2030. However, California’s current drought, now in its fourth year, is
putting added emphasis on long-term water security and forcing public agencies to redouble
conservation efforts and expand contingency planning. Both SFPUC and the City of Palo Alto are
increasing efforts to improve conservation, upgrade storage and delivery systems, and diversify local
water supplies.
With the Emergency Water Supply and Storage Project now completed, the City owns eight wells that
access the City’s deep aquifer that could provide potable water in a drought emergency. Three of
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 90 of 124
those wells are vulnerable to flooding from sea level rise and stormwater flooding: the Library Well at
1213 Newell Road; the Eleanor Pardee Well at 851 Center Drive; and Rinconada Well at 1440 Hopkins
Avenue.
Palo Alto encompasses significant land areas in the foothills and elsewhere that are highly vulnerable
to wildfire. The Local Hazard Mitigation Plan identifies several critical water supply facilities that are in
a high risk fire hazard zone: Montebello Reservoir, Corte Madera Reservoir and Booster Station, Park
Reservoir and Booster Station, Boronda Reservoir and Booster Station, Quarry Booster Station, and
Page Mill Turnout.
Table 7-3.1 summarizes the primary vulnerabilities of the City’s water security and supply
infrastructure to climate change impacts including sea level rise and drought.
TABLE 7-3.1. Climate Change Vulnerability of Water Supply
Function Systems and infrastructure that provide a clean, safe and reliable water supply for
the City of Palo Alto.
Exposure Potential Impacts Assets at Risk
Temperature ¥ Regional water demand likely
to spike due to irrigation
demand and increased
evaporation losses
¥ Secondary impact of
elevated fire risk may
increase water demand for
fire suppression
¥ Short-term water supply for
potable needs and fire suppression
Precipitation ¥ Higher risk of fluvial flooding
of critical drinking water
facilities
¥ Potential to interrupt power
supply needed for water
delivery
¥ Water supply infrastructure in Palo
Alto flood plain including piping &
distribution facilities,
¥ Municipal groundwater wells
¥ Recycled water: flooding could
impact RWQCP ability to supply
recycled water (#5 on map)
Drought ¥ Decrease in total
precipitation, with decreased
snowpack in Sierra, leading
to Regional Water System
(RWS) shortages
¥ Longer periods of low flow
condition can affect water
quality
¥ More vulnerability to
¥ Long-term water supply: during
extended drought SFPUC’s regional
water system may be inadequate
to supply Palo Alto, and may suffer
decline in quality
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 91 of 124
extreme heat event
¥ Regional water demand will
generally increase due to
irrigation demand and
increased evaporation losses
¥ More extraction of local
groundwater could deplete
supply and cause land
subsidence
Wildfire ¥ Reservoir and water supply
infrastructure at risk from
wildfire; could disrupt supply
and/or affect water quality
¥ Water imported from Sierra
Nevada Supplies is
potentially vulnerable to
water quality change from
fire-induced erosion
¥ Could disrupt infrastructure,
or access to infrastructure
through fire damage and
fire-induced erosion
¥ Montebello Reservoir
¥ Corte Madera Reservoir and
Booster Station
¥ Park Reservoir and Booster Station
¥ Boronda Reservoir and Booster
Station
¥ Dahl Reservoir and Booster Station
¥ Quarry Booster Station
¥ Page Mill Turnout
Sea Level Rise ¥ Increased frequency and
depth of coastal flooding of
critical drinking water
facilities
¥ Increased potential for fluvial
flooding due to reduced
drainage to the Bay
¥ Potential for saline intrusion
to contaminate deep aquifer
that provides emergency
potable water supply.
¥ Increased inundation and
rising groundwater may limit
access to facilities and
pipelines for maintenance
and operations; Inability to
access valves and access
manholes
¥ Buoyancy and corrosion of
¥ Municipal Services Center (map
#8)
¥ Utility Control Center (map #6)
¥ Utility Engineering Center (map
#3)
¥ Water supply infrastructure in Palo
Alto flood plain including piping &
distribution facilities,
¥ Municipal groundwater wells
¥ Recycled water: flooding could
impact RWQCP ability to supply
recycled water (map #5)
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 92 of 124
pipes
Wastewater Management (WW)
This functional asset category covers Palo Alto’s wastewater collection and treatment infrastructure
including the Regional Water Quality Control Plant (RWQCP) operations, sewerage, and outfalls.
The City of Palo Alto’s Utilities Department (CPAU) provides wastewater collection, with treatment
services provided by the Public Works Department, for the City and its sphere of influence (SOI). The
CPAU oversees a wastewater collection system consisting of over 208 miles of sewer lines, while the
Public Works Department oversees the treatment of approximately 3.4 billion gallons of wastewater
per year.42 The RWQCP is designed to have an average dry weather flow (ADWF) capacity of 39 MGD
and an average wet weather flow capacity of 80 MGD. Average daily flow is 22 MGD.
Due to aging infrastructure and the need for more informed financing and operations decisions, in
2012 the Palo Alto City Council approved a Long Range Facilities Plan for the RWQCP, which guides
capital reinvestment, wastewater treatment services for six agencies, and ensures ongoing water
quality control to protect the San Francisco Bay and local creeks.
The Local Hazard Mitigation Plan identifies the RWQCP and Utility Engineering Center as being at risk
from mid-century sea level rise (16 inches), while the Utility Control Center and the Municipal Services
Center are at risk from end-of-century sea level rise (55 inches). Figure 6.6 also shows these assets
are at risk from sea level rise and associated flooding.
TABLE 7-3.2. Climate Change Vulnerability of Wastewater Management
Function Systems and infrastructure that enable the City to reliably collect and treat its
wastewater to a minimum standard for protecting public and ecosystem health.
Exposure Potential Impacts Assets at Risk
Temperature ¥ None identified ¥ None identified
Precipitation ¥ Increased stormwater inflow
into wastewater collection
system
¥ Localized flooding of RWQCP
works from direct
precipitation
¥ Storms could knock out
power to RWQCP
¥ RWQCP operations (map #5 )
¥ RWQCP peak treatment capacity
42
City
of
Palo
Alto,
2014.
Utilities
at
a
Glance.
http://www.cityofpaloalto.org/civicax/filebank/documents/16777
,
accessed
December
8,
2014.
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 93 of 124
Drought ¥ None identified ¥ None identified
Wildfire ¥ Could knock out power to
RWQCP
¥ RWQCP operations
Sea Level Rise ¥ Increased frequency and
depth of coastal flooding of
critical wastewater treatment
facilities (RWQCP)
¥ Increased inundation and
rising groundwater may limit
access to facilities and
pipelines for maintenance
and operations; Inability to
access valves and access
manholes
¥ Buoyancy and corrosion of
pipes
¥ Peak discharge trough outfall
could be reduced
¥ Short-term flooding can
disrupt biological treatment
processes
¥ RWQCP operations
o Flooding of below-grade joint
interceptor sewer and galleries
o Outfall pumping
¥ Wastewater transmission pipes
east of Bayshore Freeway.
Stormwater Management (SW)
This functional asset category includes the City’s stormwater facilities and drainage systems. As
explained in the Comprehensive Plan Update Draft Existing Conditions Report for Utilities and Service
Systems, the City owns and maintains a municipal storm drain system consisting of approximately
107 miles of pipeline and 2,750 catch basins, 800 manholes and 6 pump stations. The City’s storm
drain pipe systems are designed for a 10-year return 6-hour storm event and the hydrology and
hydraulics design criteria conform with the Santa Clara County Storm Drainage Manual.
The Local Hazard Mitigation Plan identifies several critical stormwater-related facilities at risk from
mid-century sea level rise (16 inches): the Utility Engineering Center and the Adobe, Colorado,
Matadero, and San Francisquito pump stations. The LHMP identifies the Utility Control Center, the
Municipal Services Center, and the Airport Pump Station as being at risk from end-of-century sea level
rise (55 inches). Figure 6.6 also shows these assets are at risk from sea level rise and associated
flooding.
Flooding exposure can be mitigated with permeable surfaces that allow stormwater to infiltrate into
soils instead of contributing to surface drainage, or watershed detention basins that retard stormwater
flow or allow it to infiltrate.
TABLE 7-3.3. Climate Change Vulnerability of Stormwater Management
Function Collect stormwater in piped networks and open channels and transport it to open
water discharge sites as quickly as possible, without harming the receiving body of
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water
Exposure Potential Impacts Assets at Risk
Temperature ¥ None identified ¥ None identified
Precipitation ¥ Increased discharge to
stormwater system
¥ Fluvial flooding can damage
stormwater infrastructure
¥ Overall capacity of stormwater
system, including the Palo Alto
Flood Control Basin
¥ Pump stations in flood prone
areas: Adobe (#1 on map);
Airport (#2); Colorado (#4),
Matadero (#17), and San
Francisquito (#66).
Drought ¥ None identified ¥ None identified
Wildfire ¥ Increased sediment from
fire-damaged areas can
impede drainage; increase
maintenance
¥ Capacity of stormwater drainage
system
Sea Level Rise ¥ Increased potential for
stormwater and fluvial
flooding due to reduced
drainage to the Bay
¥ Increased frequency and
depth of coastal flooding
may damage stormwater
infrastructure.
¥ Overall capacity of stormwater
system, including the Palo Alto
Flood Control Basin
¥ Pump stations in flood prone
areas: Adobe (#1 on map);
Airport (#2); Colorado (#4),
Matadero (#17), and San
Francisquito (#66).
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 95 of 124
Transportation Infrastructure (TI)
This functional category encompasses the City’s major transportation infrastructure including state
and federal highways, local arterials and access roads, bridges, railways, pedestrian pathways and
bikeways, and the Palo Alto Airport.
Major highways located in the City or serving the City include: Interstate 280; US Route 101
(Bayshore Freeway); State highway 84 (Dumbarton Bridge/Woodside Road) and 82 (El Camino Real);
County highways G3 (Page Mill Road/Oregon Expressway) and G5 (Foothill Expressway). Primary local
roads include Embarcadero Road, Middlefield Road, Alma Street, Page Mill Road and Arastradero Road.
Caltrain, Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority (VTA), San Mateo County Transit District
(SamTrans), and AC Transit (Dumbarton Express) all provide service to and from Palo Alto. The Palo
Alto Transit Center, located on University Avenue between El Camino Real and Alma Street, is the
regional transit hub for the City, providing connections to neighboring communities and the wider Bay
Area. Caltrain provides commuter rail service along Alma Street with stations at Palm Drive and
California Avenue. VTA operates 14 bus routes in Palo Alto, providing connections to VTA light rail,
Caltrain, Altamont Corridor Express (ACE) and AMTRAK Capitol Corridor. Stanford University Parking
and Transportation Services operates a free public shuttle service connecting the campus to nearby
transit, shopping, dining, and entertainment.
Many significant transportation assets that serve Palo Alto and the surrounding region do not have
adequate alternatives in the case of flooding or other emergencies that put them out of commission.
For example, disruption of State Highway 101, or the Highway 84 approach to the Dumbarton bridge,
would result in heavy congestion that could overwhelm not only the City of Palo Alto but also the
region as a whole. The Palo Alto Airport, the Municipal Services Center, and the Utility Control Center,
as well as local access roads these facilities, are located in a major flood zone. Disruption to the road
network will also affect public transportation, both directly for bus service and indirectly for CalTrain.
The lack of adequate alternatives could leave Palo Alto residents isolated during emergencies or
disasters.
Figure 6.6 shows the portion of Highway 101 between the Oregon Expressway and San Antonio Way,
along with the approaches to the 101 overpasses at those two points, is at high risk from inundation
due to sea level rise and storm surge by mid-century. Figure 7.1, from the Draft Silicon Valley 2.0
Climate Adaptation Guidebook, shows a number of bridges (including elevated roadways crossing
Highway 101) in this area are vulnerable to sea level rise and storm surge by mid-century, primarily
because the approached to these bridges, not necessarily the bridges themselves, would be
inundated.
Figure 7.1: Bridge Assets Vulnerable to Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge, Mid-Century (from
Silicon Valley 2.0)
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 96 of 124
TABLE 7-4. Climate Change Vulnerability of Critical Transportation Infrastructure
Function Provide mobility and access to support safety, security, and prosperity
Exposure Potential Impacts Assets at Risk
Temperature ¥ Roads: Can buckle, deform,
soften pavement
¥ Rail: extreme heat stresses
materials and can buckle
rails
¥ Control and communication
systems can overheat
¥ Local streets, highways
¥ CalTrain railway
Precipitation ¥ Fluvial flooding of low-lying
transportation infrastructure
– erosion and other damage
(exacerbated by sea level
rise)
¥ Increased precipitation
increases surface water on
roads
¥ Highway 101 and associated
approach roads to overpasses
¥ Surface streets in Palo Alto Flood
Plain
¥ Bicycle and pedestrian ways in
Palo Alto floodplain
¥ Palo Alto airport
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 97 of 124
Drought ¥ None identified ¥ None identified
Wildfire ¥ Fire damage to roads and
highways
¥ Roads and highways in high risk
fire zones include Skyline
Boulevard (Highway 35), Page Mill
Road, and smaller roads west of I-
280
Sea Level Rise ¥ Increased frequency and
depth of coastal flooding
¥ Increased potential for fluvial
flooding due to reduced
drainage to the Bay
¥ Erosion and other damage
during storms
¥ Highway 101 and associated
approach roads to overpasses
¥ Surface streets in Palo Alto
floodplain
¥ Bicycle and pedestrian ways in
Palo Alto floodplain
¥ Palo Alto airport
Shoreline Flood Management (SF)
This functional asset category includes the ad hoc system of levees, landfill, and salt pond
embankments, as well as tidal marsh wetlands that provide flood mitigation for the City’s shoreline.
Although these features do not provide a level of flood protection sufficient for FEMA certification, they
do prevent flooding of developed areas along the shoreline for some coastal scenarios.
The shoreline flood management system is deficient relative to FEMA certification standards for levee
crest elevation. This implies that the levees are at risk of being overtopped by the 100-year Bay water
levels, thereby failing to prevent inundation on the landward side. Sea level rise, which may cause the
present 100-year water level of 11.0 ft NAVD to be exceeded annually by a King Tide by end-of-
century, will worsen this deficiency of the flood management system. The existing levees are also
deficient relative to geotechnical and erosion protection criteria. Sea level rise will increase the
geotechnical and erosion forces that the levees face, which makes levee failure more likely. A failed
levee would further reduce flood protection, enabling overtopping to occur at lower elevations and
greater rates.
Tidal marsh wetlands front portions of the City’s coastal levees. In these locations, the marshes
provide the ecosystem services of buffering wave heights and erosion. As such, the marshes
contribute to the ‘horizontal levee’ system reducing coastal flood risk (ESA PWA, 201343). Toward the
end of the century, these marshes may not be able to independently sustain their elevation relative to
43
ESA
PWA.
2013.
Analysis
of
the
Costs
and
Benefits
of
Using
Tidal
Marsh
Restoration
as
a
Sea
Level
Rise
Adaptation
Strategy
in
San
Francisco
Bay.
Prepared
for
The
Bay
Institute.
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 98 of 124
sea level rise and may convert to mudflat (Stralberg et al., 201144). Loss of the tidal marsh vegetation
would expose the shoreline levees to greater risk of failure.
At this time, there is not enough information about the potential changes of climate change on
regional storm intensity and frequency nor have the local effects of different storm conditions been
assessed. The GCMs currently forecast limited change to increase in peak precipitation (see Section 0),
which is an indicator of storm intensity. Given this lack of information and relatively small liklihood of
change in related processes, the effects of more intense storms on the shoreline management system
are noted in Table 7-5, but not included in the adaptation strategy assessment (Section 8).
TABLE 7-5. Climate Change Vulnerability of Shoreline Flood Management
Function Provide flood protections for the Palo Alto shoreline along San Francisco Bay
Exposure Potential Impacts Assets at Risk
Temperature ¥ None identified ¥ None identified
Precipitation ¥ Erosion of levees and
wetlands from increased
wave forces
¥ Breaching and overtopping
of levees
¥ Integrity of flood risk management
levees
¥ Integrity of Palo Alto Flood Basin
¥ Fluvial storage capacity of Palo
Alto Flood Basin
Drought ¥ None identified ¥ None identified
Wildfire ¥ None identified ¥ None identified
Sea Level Rise ¥ Increased frequency and
depth of coastal flooding
during storms
¥ Long-term increase in
overtopping of coastal levees
¥ Increased erosion of levees
and wetlands
¥ Overall shoreline flood
management capacity
¥ Integrity of flood risk management
levees
¥ Integrity of Palo Alto Flood Basin
¥ Functioning of Palo Alto Flood
Basin
o Reduced capacity to drain by
gravity
44
Stralberg,
Diana,
Matthew
Brennan,
John
C
Callaway,
Julian
K
Wood,
Lisa
M
Schile,
Dennis
Jongsomjit,
Maggi
Kelly,
V
Thomas
Parker,
and
Stephen
Crooks.
2011.
“Evaluating
Tidal
Marsh
Sustainability
in
the
Face
of
Sea-‐Level
Rise:
A
Hybrid
Modeling
Approach
Applied
to
San
Francisco
Bay.”
PloS
One
6
(11)
(January):
e27388.
oi:10.1371/journal.pone.0027388.
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 99 of 124
o Coastal flooding
Public Health (PH)
This functional asset category covers the health-related impacts of climate change, with a special
focus on the City’s populations who are most vulnerable those impacts, including those with special
needs, living in poverty, or most exposed to the physical impacts of climate change.
The City’s more vulnerable populations (elderly, impoverished, non-English-speaking, or physically
incapacitated) face climate-related public health risks associated with heat-related illness and
mortality, respiratory impacts, infectious diseases, and changes in socioeconomic conditions that may
impact well-being. Extreme heat and precipitation events, diminished air quality (e.g., high ozone
levels), new disease vectors, and food insecurity all represent potential health and safety risks.
Outdoor workers, in particular, are vulnerable to extreme heat and weather events. 45 Particular
concern centers on the increasing tendency for multiple hot days in succession, and heat waves
occurring simultaneously in several regions throughout the state, which could affect power reliability.
The City’s vulnerable populations may require special response assistance or special medical care after
a climate-influenced disaster. Physically vulnerable areas of the City (e.g., low-lying areas prone to
flooding) that overlap with high-density residential or commercial development could experience high
death tolls and injury rates from extreme weather events.
According to the 2010 U.S. Census, Palo also had 17.1% of residents over the age of 65, compared to
11.4% for the state of California. 5.7% of City residents are living below the Federal Poverty Level,
compared to 15.9% statewide. 46 A map published by the Santa Clara County Public Health
Department shows lower-income residents (defined as living at or below 200% of the Federal Poverty
Level, which was approximately $22,000 for a family of 4 in 2010) concentrated in the northern
portion of the City bounded by University, Middlefield, Lincoln, and Alma streets, and in a smaller area
bordering the City of Mountain View north of El Camino Real.47
The CalEnviroScreen 2.0 tool uses a science-based method for evaluating multiple pollution sources in
a community while accounting for a community’s vulnerability to pollution’s adverse effects. The tool
can be used to identify California’s most burdened and vulnerable communities. The tool presents a
broad picture of the burdens and vulnerabilities different areas confront from environmental
pollutants. It relies on the use of indicators to measure factors that affect pollution impacts in
communities. CalEnviroScreen identifies vulnerable communities in California most burdened by
pollution from multiple sources and most vulnerable to its effects, taking into account their
socioeconomic characteristics and underlying health status. These same communities are typically
those most sensitive to climate change exposure, including extreme heat events, enduring heat
waves, sea level rise, extreme storms, diminished air quality, and new disease vectors.
CalEnviroScreen provides relative scores (percentiles) indicating population vulnerability with Higher
scores indicating areas with highest pollution burdens and most sensitive populations.
CalEnviroScreen shows the area of the City east of Highway 101 (census tract 6085504601 with a
population of 817) as having a relatively high score of 71 to 75%, driven by high exposures to traffic
45
Drechsler,
D.
M.
2009.
Climate
Change
and
Public
Health
in
California.
46
U.S.
census
website,
accessed
12/22/14:
http://www.census.gov/acs/www/
47
Santa
Clara
County
Public
Health
Department,
2013.
Community
Health
Existing
Conditions
Report.
Figure
2-‐10:
Vulnerable
Communities
–
High
Proportions
of
Low-‐Income
Residents
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 100 of 124
density, and potential exposures to impaired surface and groundwater, hazardous/toxic waste, and
solid waste. The demographic stressors for this area include relatively high unemployment, relatively
older population and relatively low education. Notably, CalEnviroScreen vulnerability scores are
relatively low for the low-income areas identified by the County Public Health Department.
The Draft Existing Conditions Report for the Palo Alto Comprehensive Plan Update48 reports that the
percentage of Palo Alto residents living in poverty declined in 2012 for the first time since the 1980s,
while the proportion of households below the poverty level in Santa Clara County continued to rise.
TABLE 7-6. Public Health: Vulnerability to Climate Change
Function Organized community efforts aimed at the prevention of disease and the promotion
of health, for the population as a whole
Exposure Potential Impacts Assets at Risk
Temperature ¥ More frequent and severe
heat waves lead to death
and illness, increased air
pollution and fires, and
greater risk of food and
water contamination
¥ Increase in average
temperatures leads to more
air pollution and greater risk
of new pests and diseases
¥ Increasing temperatures,
drought, severe storms and
invasive species all increase
the risk and severity of
wildfires
¥ The City’s most vulnerable
residents are at risk of health
emergencies or longer-term
adverse health effects.
Precipitation ¥ More frequent or more
powerful storms
disproportionally impact
public safety of vulnerable
populations, especially those
in low-lying areas
¥ Extreme storms challenge
emergency response actions,
¥ Residents, workers and
schoolchildren in the Palo Alto
Flood Plain, east of highway 101.
48
City
of
Palo
Alto,
2014,
Draft
Existing
Conditions
Report:
Population,
Housing
and
Employment.
http://www.paloaltocompplan.org/resources/draft-‐existing-‐conditions-‐report/
,
accessed
December
22,
2014.
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 101 of 124
overburden stormwater
management systems, and
increase risk of vector-borne
disease
¥ Extreme storm could cause
flooding of RWQCP outfall
and influent pump station,
disrupting wastewater
treatment operations;
potential sewer overflow into
Bay creates health risk.
Drought ¥ Less local rainfall and
diminished Sierra snowpack
jeopardizes reliability and
quality of potable water
supply
¥ Potable water quality and reliability
for entire City
Wildfire ¥ Smoke from wildfires
impacts air quality and
respiratory health of
vulnerable populations
¥ Displacement and loss of
homes and jobs places
disproportionate burden on
low-income or impoverished
populations
¥ Residents and workers at risk from
fire hazards and smoke inhalation
along the urban-wildfire interface
¥ The City’s elderly, youth, and
health-compromised at risk from
fire-impacted air quality
Sea Level Rise ¥ More frequent and deeper
flooding threatens safety and
health of vulnerable
populations living in low-
lying areas
¥ Inundated or saturated areas
are potentially at higher risk
of liquefaction during
earthquakes
¥ Residents, workers, and
schoolchildren in flood prone
areas, east of 101.
Buildings and Property (BP)
This functional asset category includes residential and commercial private property, including homes,
businesses, commercial and industrial buildings, schools, government buildings, parks and recreation
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 102 of 124
areas, and other property assets. Palo Alto also has many important historical and cultural assets that
are potentially vulnerable to climate change impacts.
Palo Alto is a relatively wealthy community with high significantly higher property values than the rest
of the region. The Draft Existing Conditions Report for the Palo Alto Comprehensive Plan Update49
notes that the median household income in Palo Alto in 2012 was $122,482, while the median home
price for single-family residences and condominiums in Palo Alto was $1,720,000 in 2013, up 15
percent from 2012, more than 2.5 times that of the County median price of $645,000. Residential land
uses make up approximately 27 percent of the total land area within the City limit. As shown on the
Comprehensive Plan Land Use Map (Appendix A), residential land use is primarily located in the
urbanized portion of the city between El Camino Real and Highway 101, the neighborhoods west of El
Camino Real and south of the Stanford University campus, and areas west of I-280 bordering the town
of Los Altos Hills. As shown in Figure 6.6, the residential area bound roughly by Highway 101,
Middlefield Road, Embarcadero Road, and Charleston Road is at risk from sea level rise by 2050, with
the at-risk area slightly expanded by 2100. These properties, as well as properties in the vicinity of
San Francisquito Creek, are also in the FEMA 100-year flood zone. As shown on Figure 6.5, residential
properties west of Interstate 280 bordering Los Altos Hills, as well as multifamily residential properties
along Sand Hill Road, are at moderate to high risk of exposure to wildfire.
According to the City of Palo Alto web site, Palo Alto is home to more than 7,000 businesses that
employ more than 98,000 jobs.50 With its location in Silicon Valley and proximity to Stanford
University, the City has long been an engine of entrepreneurial growth, spawning many high profile
firms including Xerox, Hewlett-Packard, Google, Facebook, PayPal, Tesla Motors. Stanford Research
Park on Page Mill Road is the home to many prominent technology firms. Business, commercial, and
industrial land uses make up approximately 10 percent of the total land area within the City limit. The
largest business park in Palo Alto is the 10 million-square-foot Stanford Research Park., while the
largest commercial area in the City is the approximately 1.4 million- square-foot Stanford Shopping
Center. As shown on the Comprehensive Plan Land Use Map (Appendix A), extensive commercial and
industrial properties exist in low-lying areas along Highway 101 and east of 101 in the PAFB, where
they are vulnerable to sea level rise and flooding. Commercial and industrial properties along Sand Hill
Road are at moderate risk from exposure to wildfire, as indicated on Figure 6.5.
Parks and open spaces uses account for nearly 59 percent of the total land area within the City limit. A
map from the Palo Alto Parks, Trails, Open Space and Recreation Master Plan51 (Appendix A) indicates
that most of these areas are located in the hills west of Foothill Expressway and in the Palo Alto
baylands east of Highway 101. As with the private property described, low-lying park areas along the
Bay are vulnerable to flooding and sea level rise, while parks in the foothills are at risk from wildfire.
In 2014, the City of Palo Alto initiated a planning process to analyze and review Palo Alto’s park and
recreation system and prepare a Park and Recreation Master Plan to guide future renovations and
capital improvements for parks, trails, open space, and recreation facilities. The Master Plan will
49
City
of
Palo
Alto,
2014,
Draft
Existing
Conditions
Report:
Population,
Housing
and
Employment.
http://www.paloaltocompplan.org/resources/draft-‐existing-‐conditions-‐report/
,
accessed
December
22,
2014.
50
Palo
Alto
Business
Facts:
http://www.cityofpaloalto.org/news/displaynews.asp?NewsID=592&TargetID=52
,
accessed
December
23,
2014.
51
City
of
Palo
Alto
Parks,
Trails,
Open
Space
and
Recreation
Master
Plan,
http://www.paloaltoparksplan.org/pdf/Parks-‐Map.pdf,
accessed
from
City
web
site
on
December
23,
2014.
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 103 of 124
prioritize short term (5 years), mid-term (10 years), and long-term (25 years) improvements. It is
anticipated that a final report will be presented to the City Council in fall 2015.52
Palo Alto is home to many public schools, private schools, charter school, libraries, and institutes of
higher education including the venerable Stanford University located adjacent to the City. According to
the City’s Draft 2014 Comprehensive Plan, the Palo Alto Public School District (PAPSD) operates 13
elementary schools, 3 middle schools, and 2 high schools across an area that covers the City of Palo
Alto as well as portions of the town of Los Altos and portions of Portola Valley and the Stanford
University campus. Foothill-De Anza Community College is based in neighboring Los Altos Hills and
has campus within Palo Alto located at the Cubberley Community Center, which serves about 3,500
students. Other universities, technical and specialty schools located in the City include: Palo Alto
University including the Pacific Graduate School of Psychology, Sophia University (formerly the
Institute of Transpersonal Psychology), and the Bay Area College of Nursing. Palo Alto Unified School
District facilities most at risk from flooding due to storms and sea level rise include Ohlone Elementary
School, Palo Verde Elementary School, and Jordan Middle School. Duveneck Elementary School faces
longer-term risk from sea level rise, but is located in the FEMA 100-year flood zone.
To mitigate serious wildfires at the urban interface the State Fire Marshal included adoption of Chapter
7A in the California Building Code, requiring fire resistant exterior construction in hazardous fire areas.
The City of Palo Alto has adopted these requirements for new construction or significant remodels in
the moderate to high fire hazard severity areas in Palo Alto, as defined by CalFire.53 This includes most
of the City’s land southwest of Foothill Boulevard and the area around the RWQCP. The City building
code has also required fire sprinklers in new buildings and significant remodels in these areas since
1994.
TABLE 7-7. Climate Change Vulnerability of Buildings and Property
Function Provides the fabric of urban living, supporting the physical, financial, recreational,
and emotional well-being of the community.
Exposure Potential Impacts Assets at Risk
Temperature ¥ Heat damage to asphalt
¥ Stress capacity of building
cooling systems
¥ Asphalt parking lots, driveways,
private roads
¥ Ability of HVAC systems to provide
adequate cooling
Precipitation ¥ Increase in erosion events
¥ Localized flooding
¥ Buildings and property in flood
zones
52
City
of
Palo
Alto,
2014,
Draft
Existing
Conditions
Report:
Recreation.
http://www.paloaltocompplan.org/resources/draft-‐existing-‐conditions-‐
report/,
accessed
December
22,
2014.
53
Cal
Fire
Fire
Hazard
Severity
Zones
Maps:
http://www.fire.ca.gov/fire_prevention/fire_prevention_wildland_zones.php
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 104 of 124
Drought ¥ Increased need for irrigation ¥ Local trees and landscaping; urban
forest
Wildfire ¥ More frequent and higher
intensity wildfires
¥ Private homes and businesses in
high risk fire zones
¥ Parks, trails, open space and
recreation areas west of Foothill
Expressway
Sea Level Rise ¥ Increased frequency and
depth of coastal flooding
¥ Increased potential for fluvial
flooding due to reduced
drainage to the Bay
¥ Inundated or saturated areas
are potentially at higher risk
of liquefaction during
earthquakes
¥ Buildings and other property in the
Palo Alto floodplain
¥ Baylands recreation areas (e.g.,
golf course, trails, nature center)
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 105 of 124
Solid Waste/Hazardous Materials Management (SM)
The Palo Alto Landfill located east of Highway 101 has been closed since February 2012. The City
plans to have the landfill 100% capped by the summer of 2015. The landfill has a landfill gas and
leachate collection system in place along with an incinerator for flaring the collected methane. The
highest elevation of the landfill is approximately 60 feet above mean sea level. The landfill’s lower
elevations including the road going around it are susceptible to flooding and erosion from sea level.
The City expects the landfill to settle and subside for another 20 years, approximately. Flooding could
damage or disrupt the landfill gas and leachate recovery operation.
GreenWaste of Palo Alto, a joint venture between GreenWaste Recovery, Inc. and Zanker Road
Resource Management, Ltd., currently holds the City's contract for the collection and transportation of
municipal solid waste, commercial organics, residential yard trimmings. All solid waste and
recyclables, including construction and demolition debris, are trucked out of the City and processed at
facilities elsewhere. Two of those facilities, the Zanker Material Processing Facility for processing of
construction and demolition debris, and the Sunnyvale Materials Recovery and Transfer Station
(SMaRT Station) for processing of municipal solid waste (MSW), are located in low-lying areas near
the bayshore in San Jose. These facilities are at risk from Sea Level Rise and coastal flooding.
Several areas of soil and groundwater contamination exist as a legacy of past practices at Stanford
Research Park, but these areas to the west of El Camino Real are not vulnerable to sea level rise or
climate-related impacts.
The City’s Household Hazardous Waste (HHW) drop-off station is located at the RWQCP. Hazardous
materials could be at risk of entering the environment in the event of an extreme flood.
TABLE 7-8. Climate Change Vulnerability of Solid Waste/Hazardous Materials Facilities
Function Control or manage solid waste and hazardous materials disposed of by the
community
Exposure Potential Impacts Assets at Risk
Temperature ¥ None identified ¥ NA
Precipitation ¥ Increased erosion potential ¥ Capped landfill
Drought ¥ None identified ¥ NA
Wildfire ¥ None identified ¥ NA
Sea Level Rise ¥ Increased frequency and
depth of coastal flooding
¥ Increased potential for fluvial
flooding due to reduced
drainage to the Bay
¥ Erosion of levees protecting landfill
¥ Inundation of landfill gas collection
system at capped landfill
¥ Containment of contaminated soils
and groundwater
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¥ Increased erosion potential
¥ Changes to groundwater
elevations, gradients, and
transport rates
¥ Household Hazardous Waste
Facility
¥ GreenWaste Facility
¥ Municipal Service Center
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 107 of 124
Natural Areas, EcoSystems (NE)
This functional asset category includes natural areas and ecosystems that are critical to local flora and
fauna, as well as ecosystem services (e.g., flood control, wave surge protection, erosion control,
nutrient retention, water quality improvement) provided by the City’s natural areas.
Palo Alto’s boundaries extend from the San Francisco bay to the Santa Cruz mountains, encompassing
several microclimates and natural habitats. Undeveloped lands in the Baylands and in the western hills
contain undisturbed plant communities that support a variety of species. The natural vegetation has
been substantially altered in the developed areas of the city, leaving the urban forest as the dominant
habitat. Some of the stream corridors in the developed portions of the city also support natural
vegetation. The primary natural habitats found along the Bay include coastal saltwater/brackish
marsh, freshwater marsh, and valley foothill riparian, while the foothills west and southwest of
downtown support grasslands, coastal oak woodlands, coastal scrub, redwood forest, and montane
hardwood and conifer forests.54
The Draft Palo Alto Urban Forest Master Plan55 lists more than 300 species of street trees in Palo Alto,
with the following five species representing almost 35 percent of the total trees planted: southern
magnolia, London plane, American sweetgum, Modesto ash, and camphor. The urban forest, which
provides cover, forage, and nesting habitat for common wildlife as well as a buffer against the heat
island effect during periods of high temperature, is well established in the older parts of the city,
where mature street trees provide a dense canopy. The Draft Urban Forest Master Plan provides an in-
depth management plan for the City’s street trees as well as its urban forest, encompassing the area
between Highways 101 and 280 as well as the Municipal Golf Course and a small area west of 280 that
includes a single-family neighborhood zoned Residential Estate (RE). Public Works has recently
updated the approved street tree list in anticipation of climate change impacts including longer periods
of drought and more limited water supplies for irrigation. Coast redwoods are no longer approved, and
the City is in the process of identifying more drought-tolerant species that are appropriate for Palo
Alto and can tolerate higher salinity water, to allow more use of recycled water for irrigation needed in
early growth stages.
Silicon Valley 2.0, the regional adaptation planning effort, assesses the climate change vulnerability of
11 distinct natural habitats in Santa Clara County. Temperature increases are expected to impact all
habitats in Santa Clara County, through decreases in soil moisture, heat stress, disruption of periodic
biological phenomena (phonologic cycles), more invasive species, more competition for freshwater
resources, and loss of food supply. Changes in precipitation patterns could intensify competition for
freshwater resources, and stress natural habitats with increases in wildfire, landslide, and erosion.
Reduced or altered vegetation coverage, in combination with heavy precipitation events, results in
more runoff, increased erosion and sedimentation, which in turn impact water quality and sensitive
aquatic and riparian habitats. Riverine flooding can also impact aquatic and riparian habitats. Drought
conditions and higher temperatures increase the risk of wildfires, which alter habitats and ecosystem
services. Burned areas are susceptible to increased erosion, flooding, and landslides. 56
54
City
of
Palo
Alto,
2014,
Draft
Existing
Conditions
Report:
Biological
Resources.
http://www.paloaltocompplan.org/resources/draft-‐existing-‐
conditions-‐report/,
accessed
January
2,
2014.
55
City
of
Palo
Alto
Department
of
Public
Works:
Urban
Forestry
Division,
2014,
Sustaining
the
Legacy:
Palo
Alto
Urban
Forest
Master
Plan
(Draft),
available
at:
http://www.cityofpaloalto.org/civicax/filebank/blobdload.aspx?BlobID=36187
56
Santa
Clara
County
Office
of
Sustainability,
2014.
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 108 of 124
In general, sea level rise will alter existing intertidal, wetland, and coastal habitats through inundation,
storm effects, and saltwater intrusion. The flood protection and water quality services provided by
marshes and wetlands will also be diminished.
In 1978, the City of Palo Alto adopted the Baylands Master Plan57 with the goal of balancing ecological
preservation with continued commercial and recreational use of the Palo Alto Baylands. The Baylands
Master Plan was updated in 1988 and again in 2008. Today the Baylands offers a wide range of
recreational opportunities, including recreational flying, golfing, and team sports played at the popular
Athletic Center.58
The City of Palo Alto is currently preparing a Parks, Trails, Open Space and Recreation Master Plan to
manage, improve and expand its parks and recreational facilities, while ensuring that the open-space
and conversation needs of future generations are appropriately balanced and adequately funded. The
expected climate change exposures to natural landscapes and ecosystems should be fully incorporated
into this long term management plan.
TABLE 7-9. Climate Change Vulnerability of Natural Areas, EcoSystems
Function Provide habitat to local flora and fauna and ecosystem services for community well-
being
Exposure Potential Impacts Assets at Risk
Temperature ¥ Extreme hear and overall
higher temperatures can
decrease soil moisture,
increase evaporation,
increase heat stress at
individual and population
scales, disrupt phonologic
cycles, increase invasive
species, increase competition
for freshwater resources, and
impact food supply.
¥ Uplands habitats
¥ Urban forests
¥ Redwood forests
Precipitation ¥ Increase in erosion events
and sediment loss
¥ Loss of wetland areas due to wave
erosion
¥ Water quality in local streams and
reservoirs
¥
57
City
of
Palo
Alto
Department
of
Planning
and
Community
Environment,
October,
2008:
Baylands
Master
Plan,
4th
Edition.
58
City
of
Palo
Alto,
2014,
Draft
Existing
Conditions
Report:
Recreation.
http://www.paloaltocompplan.org/resources/draft-‐existing-‐conditions-‐
report/,
accessed
December
22,
2014.
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 109 of 124
Drought ¥ Stress to local flora and
fauna, natural habitats
¥ Baylands habitats
¥ Urban forest; local trees &
vegetation providing habitat
¥ Redwood forests
¥
Wildfire ¥ Loss of natural habitat
¥ Fire makes forested areas
more vulnerable to storm-
induced erosion and
sediment loss
¥ Forested areas in high fire risk
areas, including Foothills Park and
Pearson-Arastradero Preserve
¥ Water quality in local streams and
reservoirs
Sea Level Rise ¥ Increased inundation of
Baylands marshes leading to
drowning and loss of marsh
vegetation.
¥ Fragmentation of wetlands
¥ Loss of high tide refugia for
dependent species
¥ Inundation and erosion of
parklands
¥ Drowning of Bay marshes
¥ Baylands habitats and biodiversity
¥ Baylands ecosystem services (e.g.,
water quality, erosion protection,
aesthetics etc.)
¥ Palo Alto Baylands Park and the
future landfill park conversion
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Assessing
Risk
and
Prioritizing
Adaptation
Responses
Risk and Response Framework
This chapter presents a framework for assessing risk and prioritizing adaptation responses using the
following steps:
1. Assess the risk associated with the City’s asset vulnerabilities that were identified in the
previous chapter;
2. Identify existing plans and measures currently in place at the City that involve that asset
and/or provide adaptive capacity to the vulnerability; and
3. Identify response(s) needed in the next phase of City planning to improve resiliency of that
asset.
Risk Assessment
Climate risk is commonly described as the likelihood and consequence of a climate variable’s impact
on a vulnerable asset. Risk ratings consider the certainty of the science associated with each climate
variable as well as consequence of failure concerning the asset. Due to the inherent uncertainty of the
timing and severity of climate change impacts it is often difficult to assess the likelihood of a particular
asset being affected within a certain timeframe, so in many cases the evaluation of consequence was
the most important component in assessing risk. Some helpful questions used to asses risk include
the following:
¥ What is the age, condition, or useful remaining life of the asset?
¥ If impacted, could the asset be repaired or would it require complete replacement?
¥ What would it cost to repair or replace the asset?
¥ Would asset failure or incapacity disrupt a critical service? If so, how long could the disruption
last? Is there a redundant systems or service that is less vulnerable?
¥ What are the economic, health, and/or safety costs associated with a disruption in service?
A broad, high-level risk assessment was performed for the asset vulnerabilities identified in Chapter 7.
The results are presented in the City of Palo Alto Risk and Response Matrix in Appendix D, Organized
by functional category, the Risk and Response Matrix presents a “heat map” showing relative risk to
each asset from each of the five main climate exposures described in Chapter 6, using colors to
indicate the following:
The colors are used to represent the risk of climate-related impacts occurring over near-term (to
2050) and longer-term (to 2100) planning horizons. In general, highly vulnerable assets with high
costs of failure or disruption are associated with highest risk, and the risk increases with time along
with the expected increase in severity of climate change impacts.
Existing Adaptive Measures
significant
risk
increase
compared
to
existing
conditions
moderate
risk
increase
compared
to
existing
conditions
minor
risk
increase
compared
to
existing
conditions
no
identified
risk
increase
compared
to
existing
conditions
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 111 of 124
Identifying appropriate response actions requires first understanding existing conditions in terms of
plans, policies, and programs that concern the asset being evaluated. In the Risk and Response
Matrix, a column lists relevant plans and programs that are currently providing or addressing adaptive
capacity concerning the asset. Plans and programs may be local, regional, state, and/or national. For
example, the City’s capability to manage peak stormwater flow is addressed in multiple local plans and
programs, including the Local Hazard Mitigation Plan and the Storm Drain Master Plan; the City also
participates in relevant regional and national programs (e.g., Santa Clara Basin Watershed
Management Initiative, and the National Flood Insurance Program).
Recommended Responses
Recommended adaptation response actions concerning each asset are presented in four main
categories, with colors to represent the following:
A Act: Defines actions that are known and required now to mitigate identified risks
P
Prepare: Defines tasks to improve understanding of the cause or solution to a significant
risk.
M
Monitor: Requires monitoring of latest climate science developments and local/regional
situation
N No action needed
The following sections summarize significant risks and associated response actions recommended for
each functional asset category.
Emergency Response and Communications (ER)
The City’s Emergency Response and Communications assets most vulnerable to climate change
include the Municipal Services Center (MSC) and Utility Control Center (UCC), which face moderate
risk from sea level rise by 2050 and significant risk from sea level rise by 2100. Plans should be
established to protect these assets, relocate them, or establish redundant operational capabilities in
case these facilities become incapacitated during a flooding event.
Communication towers in the foothills also face significant risk from wildfire by 2100. These towers
should be assessed for their vulnerability to wildfire including their criticality in the overall system, the
consequences of failure. Emergency preparedness plans should be updated accordingly.
Energy Security and Infrastructure (ES)
Long-term changes in precipitation patterns caused by climate change represent significant risk to the
availability of hydropower for the City, due to expected higher incidence of severe droughts, loss of
Sierra snowpack, and wildfires. These risks could directly impact the stability of the California
transmission grid, driving up loads and supply volatility. This volatility will also impact price volatility,
which will likely increase the financial risks faced by the Utility and the Electric Enterprise Fund. The
City needs to develop an energy resiliency plan focusing on building in resiliency and lessening the
impact of statewide energy events. These measures should include islanding, smart grid, local
generation, energy storage and redundant transmission lines.
The MSC, UCC, and Utility Engineering Center, which are all critical to energy operations, face
moderate risk from sea level rise by 2050 and significant risk from sea level rise by 2100. Plans should
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 112 of 124
be established to protect these assets, relocate them, or establish redundant operational capabilities in
case these facilities become incapacitated during a flooding event.
Water and Wastewater
Water Supply (WS)
The City’s long-term water supply faces significant risk from loss of Sierra snowpack and drought by
the year 2100. The City should continue aggressive water conservation programs, set higher
conservation goals in the 2015 update to the Palo Alto UWMP, and continue to participate in in
regional planning efforts by BAWSCA, SCVWD and SFPUC. Ongoing investigation of potential
alternative supplies, including recycled water and use of local groundwater sources, should be
continued.
The MSC, UCC, and Utility Engineering Center, which are all critical to water operations, face moderate
risk from sea level rise by 2050 and significant risk from sea level rise by 2100. Future recycling
operations planned at the RWQCP, along with water supply infrastructure and municipal groundwater
wells located in the Palo Alto flood plain, also face significant risk from sea level rise by 2100. Plans
should be established to protect these assets, relocate them where possible, or establish redundant
operational capabilities in case these facilities become incapacitated during a flooding event.
Wastewater Management (WW)
The greatest risk to the City’s wastewater management is potential failure of existing levees that
protect the RWQCP from coastal flooding associated with sea level rise by 2100. In addition to the
SAFER Bay project that is planning coastal levee improvements there may be opportunities for
incorporating treated wastewater effluent into future levees by creating ecotone slopes –“a horizontal
levee” - bayward of the existing levee. Creating wider, shallower slopes in front of a traditional flood
risk management levee would attenuate waves and reduce overtopping, resulting in the need for
smaller levees. This would also recreate valuable upland habitat bordering the marshes that has long
been missing from the Bay and provide space for marshes to migrate into with rising sea levels. In
addition there are potential wastewater polishing benefits to this approach through denitrification and
the removal of contaminants of emerging concern.
The horizontal levee approach is being investigated in the East Bay by a regional partnership including
UC Berkeley and East Bay Dischargers Authority (EBDA), among others. Figure 8.1 provides a
conceptual illustration of the demonstration project at Oro Loma Sanitary District, which is funded by
the District and a $2.1 million grant from the Integrated Regional Water Management Program
through the California DWR. The EBDA is conducting a parallel project to explore ways to redirect and
decentralize discharge of treated wastewater effluent and put it to good use irrigating ecotone slopes,
transitional habitats and buffer zones along the shoreline. These projects may lead to opportunities to
decentralize discharges to the Bay, reduce nutrient loading in the Bay, and make better use of treated
wastewater as an increasingly valuable freshwater resource. The City should track the progress of the
Oro Loma and EBDA projects and consider a similar approach to integrating wastewater management
with coastal flood management and habitat development.
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 113 of 124
Figure 8.1: Horizontal Levee Approach Proposed for Oro Loma Sanitary District
The City should study the feasibility of a flood proofing plan for the RWQCP that minimizes impacts to
the RWQCP site in the event of local inundation. Though there is some increased risk to treatment
plant capacity represented by extreme precipitation creating stormwater overflow that gets diverted to
the RWQCP, the risk is low based on the relatively small changes predicted by the Global Climate
Models (GCMs). For similar facilities in the Bay, direct precipitation onto the site may become a
significant issue and cause localized flooding, exacerbated by the number of below grade galleries.
This vulnerability was demonstrated at Rockaway WWTP during Hurricane Sandy where a few inches
of surface flooding filled below-grade galleries that contained pumps, electrical control gear, spare
parts and document storage areas. Floodproofing the below-grade galleries and removing non-
essential items to higher locations could significantly reduce the impact.
As the sea level rises the required discharge pump head increases reducing the capacity of gravity and
pumped systems. Similar pumped outfalls in the Bay are predicting 10-20% reduction in capacity as
sea level rises over the next century, requiring either alternative discharge of peak flows, reduced
output due to more recycling, or larger pump capacity.
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 114 of 124
Stormwater Management (SW)
With respect to stormwater management, the biggest risk facing the City is diminished capacity of the
Palo Alto Flood Basin to retain stormwater during times of high tide, based on sea level rise
projections out to 2100. To improve resilience, the City should coordinate creek flood management
planning with the SAFER coastal flood management project that is just getting underway (see Section
4.5, and shoreline flood management discussion below). The horizontal levee concept described above
has also been suggested as a way to divert flows from flood basins and accommodate them in a larger
coastal floodplain. Integrating stormwater into the wetlands rather than segregating it in stormwater
channels and detaining it in flood basins may create a more resilient shoreline by reestablishing
sediment and freshwater pathways that allow wetlands to respond to sea level rise.
The City’s Airport and San Francisquito stormwater pumping stations are at risk from sea level rise by
2100; Plans should be developed to protect these assets from flooding, or determine the
consequences of their failure in the overall stormwater management system, in the event of flood.
Transportation Infrastructure (TI)
Highway 101 (Bayshore Freeway), the Palo Alto Airport, and surface streets in the Palo Alto floodplain
are all at significant risk from sea level rise by the year 2100. Current levees are not likely to
adequately protect these assets from sea level rise; the SAFER Bay project is planning improvements
to these levees. As an intermediate measure, the City should develop contingency plans for temporary
loss of these assets.
Many roads and highways in the foothills are in high risk zones for wildfires by the year 2100. The
vulnerability of these assets should be better defined, along with consequences of failure and
contingency plans in the event they become damaged or inaccessible.
Shoreline Flood Management (SF)
Sea level rise is the key climate change risk factor for shoreline flood management. At the end of
2014, the City began its participation in the SAFER Bay project to provide coastal flood improvements.
The SAFER Bay project will develop a preferred alignment for the coastal flood protection. As part of
this assessment, the SAFER project may consider different levee alignments. Possible areas for re-
alignment include around the Palo Alto airport and around the Palo Alto Flood Basin (PAFB). Re-
alignment landward would provide opportunities for restoring tidal marsh and/or marsh-to-upland
ecotone on the outboard side. The SAFER project is just getting underway for the Palo Alto shoreline,
so has not yet produced any specific plans or recommendations.
Both the airport and the PAFB have performance criteria which constrain re-alignment. Land to the
east of the existing runway may be used for adding an additional runway in the future. However, the
existing runway has length and clearance criteria set by FAA that may conflict with raising the levee
elevation.
The PAFB provides storage capacity for Matadero, Barron, and Adobe Creeks. A recent report (Schaaf
& Wheeler, 201459) identifies existing deficiencies in the PAFB’s storage capacity that worsen with sea
level rise. Re-aligning the coastal flood levee landward would further reduce the PAFB’s storage
59
Schaaf
&
Wheeler.
2014.
Palo
Alto
Flood
Basin
Hydrology.
Prepared
for
Santa
Clara
Valley
Water
District.
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 115 of 124
capacity, but may cost less than constructing the coastal flood levee around the PAFB. Reduced
storage capacity in the flood basin transfers additional flood risk upstream along the creeks. The flood
basin also provides vegetated marsh habitat for endangered species and its water levels are managed
to minimize mosquito breeding. The impacts of levee re-alignment on these habitats also need to be
considered.
The City should consider how treated wastewater effluent and stormwater could be incorporated into
the SAFER design (as described in Section 8.4.2 and 8.4.3 above) by decentralizing the discharge of
treated wastewater and reconfiguring the detention of stormwater.
Public Health (PH)
The City’s most vulnerable populations (elderly, low-income and health-compromised residents) face
significant risk from extreme heat events by 2100. These populations will also face higher risk of
health problems from worsening air quality and new disease vectors.
The following general response actions recommended to minimize public health risk from climate
change impacts:
¥ Engage the public and promote community involvement in actions to reduce climate change
risks, using linguistically and culturally appropriate approaches that are effective for diverse
populations.
¥ Reduce urban heat islands (also has energy conservation/GHG co-benefit).
¥ Partner with organization like Cal-BRACE (Building Resilience Against Climate Effects) to
forecast climate impacts and assess public health vulnerabilities, educate and engage more
effectively with the community, assess current strategies, and identify effective responses.
¥ Engage with and seek support from Association of Bay Area Government’s (ABAG) community
resilience programs; in particular their multiple hazard risk assessment and study of housing
resilience in the face of natural disasters.
The following resources are available for Public Health planning and developing public health programs
related to climate change:
¥ CalEnviroScreen helps identify California communities that are disproportionately burdened by
multiple sources of pollution.
¥ Cal-BRACE (Building Resilience Against Climate Effects): The goals of the CalBRACE project
are to enhance the California Department of Public Health’s (CDPH) capability to plan for and
reduce health risks associated with climate change. The program provides resources and
technical assistance for the state and local public health departments to build climate
adaptation capacity and enhance resilience at the local and regional levels. CalBRACE is
funded by the Center for Disease Control (CDC) and joins 15 other states and 2 cities across
the United States that are also conducting climate adaptation planning efforts from a public
health perspective through the CDC Climate Ready States and Cities Initiative.
¥ Partner with the Bay Area’s Climate Readiness Institute to stay up to date on climate-related
health issues and related planning, and to bring health messages into the mainstream of
climate change communications and extreme heat event response strategies
¥ CDC’s Assessing Health Vulnerability to Climate Change: A Guide for Health Departments
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 116 of 124
¥ CA Climate Change Portal: Public Health and Climate Change Adaptation
¥ The CEC publication Mapping Climate Change Exposures, Vulnerabilities, and Adaptation To
Public Health Risks In The San Francisco Bay and Fresno Regions provides an overall
assessment of climate change adaptive capacity of the San Francisco Bay Area. Maps in the
report demonstrate that different parts of the region have higher vulnerability for different
components of vulnerability. Consistent with Palo Alto’s CalEnviroScreen scores, the most
vulnerable areas for air pollution exposures are on the most heavily trafficked highway
corridors surrounding the most populated areas of the San Francisco Bay Area, such as
Highway101 along the Peninsula connecting San Jose and San Francisco.
Buildings and Property (BP)
Coastal flooding associated with sea level rise represents the biggest climate-related risk to buildings
and property. The long-term protection of property and infrastructure located in the Palo Alto coastal
floodplain (including parks and open space) is currently dependent on existing levees, which are too
low to provide FEMA-certified flood protection and do not meet current state and federal engineering
standards. The SAFER Bay project is currently addressing this risk.
Buildings and property located in certain areas of the foothills are in high risk zones for wildfires by
the year 2100. The vulnerability of these assets should be better defined, along with outreach to
property owners about the risks and best management practices for fire protection.
The following general response actions are recommended to minimize climate risk to buildings and
property:
¥ Engage the public and promote community awareness and involvement in actions to reduce
climate change risks, using linguistically and culturally appropriate approaches that are
effective for diverse populations.
¥ Engage with and seek support from ABAG’s community resilience programs; in particular their
multiple hazard risk assessment and study of housing resilience in the face of natural
disasters.
Solid Waste/Hazardous Material (SM)
No assets in this category are deemed to have significant risk from climate change exposures by the
year 2100. However, the existing Palo Alto landfill and its infrastructure for landfill gas capture and
groundwater pumping are potentially at risk from sea level rise. These risks should be assessed and
landfill’s current protections should be evaluated for resiliency and potential improvements to protect
against sea level rise.
Natural Areas, Ecosystems (NE)
With respect to the City’s natural areas and ecosystems, tidal marshes and coastal wetlands are the
most vulnerable from climate change by 2100, facing significant risk from sea level rise which is
expected to alter habitats primarily through increasing inundation. The storm-buffering and water
quality services provided by marshes and wetlands will also be diminished. Sea level rise is being
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 117 of 124
considered in the current Technical Update to the Bayland Ecosystem Habitat Goals60 Technical Update
and City of Palo Alto’s Baylands Master Plan. The City should also integrate ecosystem considerations
with the SAFER Bay project and assess the potential for marsh-to-uplands ecotones to improve
adaptability of tidal marshes to sea level rise. Such projects also offer the potential co-benefits of
using natural marsh habitats to provide advanced wastewater treatment.61
Public Works has recently updated the approved street tree list in anticipation of climate change
impacts including longer periods of drought and more limited water supplies for irrigation. Coast
redwoods are no longer approved, and the City is in the process of identifying more drought-tolerant
species that are appropriate for Palo Alto and can tolerate higher salinity water, to allow more use of
recycled water for irrigation needed in early growth stages.
Establishing
a
Shoreline
Vision
The adaptation actions described above need to be woven into a larger vision of the Palo Alto shoreline
that addresses not only climate change but also pre-existing and perhaps more immediate issues such
as water quality, the protection of the Baylands ecology, public access and recreation. Much of the
shoreline infrastructure, including levees, flood control facilities and waste water treatment plants that
are more than 50 years old, were built in the Clean Water Act era when federal and state grants
covered most costs. Even though concerns about maintaining our infrastructure have been growing for
decades, a commensurate increase in funding has not occurred. Beyond the price tag, the regulatory
and institutional challenges of doing multi-benefit projects remain substantial. When clean water
regulations, flood control specifications, and Bayfill policies were written 20-50 years ago, conditions
were quite different than they are today or what they are projected to be in the future. More recently,
scientific results from regional water quality monitoring programs and ecosystem restoration activities
are suggesting the need to adjust priorities for the management of wastewater, sediment and flooding
while continuing to protect the Bay’s ecological resources.
There are lessons to be learned from international experience, such as the approaches used by the
Dutch. However we should also bear in mind the ecological, political and cultural landscape of the Bay
is quite different from other places as is the attitude to risk. This can be observed in how different
countries and states approach flood risk management and shoreline management. Replication of
strategies isn’t as effective as understanding the philosophy and making a local interpretation. For
instance the “Making Room for Rivers” concept from the mid 1990’s in the Netherlands is very similar
to the “Living Rivers” concept from the U.S. during the same period and traces its origins to the Yolo
bypass a century before. In the U.S., with a less centralized government and a more varied natural
environmental setting, we are likely to see much more variation in adaptation response than in the
Netherlands.
Retreat in urban areas is inherently difficult. There are not many examples along the Bay shore
beyond Hamilton Airfield (which converted an airfield into a wetland) and Inner Harbor Redwood City
(which plans to accommodate sea level rise with a park like buffer). In general, shoreline restorations
have left the most contaminated sites (e.g., closed landfills) in place. Retreat presents huge societal
60
Baylands
Ecosystem
Habitat
Goals,
1999.
A
report
of
habitat
recommendations
prepared
by
the
San
Francisco
Bay
Area
Wetlands
Ecosystem
Goals
Project.
U.S.
Environmental
Protection
Agency,
San
Francisco,
Calif./S.F.
Bay
Regional
Water
Quality
Control
Board,
Oakland,
Calif.
61
See
description
of
Oro
Loma
Ecotone
Demonstration
Project:
http://bairwmp.org/projects/building-‐climate-‐
resiliency-‐along-‐the-‐bay-‐through-‐green-‐infrastructure/
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 118 of 124
and political challenges that will generate decades-long debates. It could be said that current
adaptation strategies, which largely focus on maintaining the existing levee alignment, are buying us
time for much harder decisions to be made.
Location is important. The appropriate adaptation strategy depends upon the geomorphology, the
ecology, the assets at risk, the appetite for risk, the resources available, and current legislation. It
could be argued that the combination of FEMA, the Clean Water Act and the Endangered Species Act
have a big impact on the U.S. landscape and will do so in the future. Regulation needs to evolve along
with adaptation strategies, continuing to protect the environment and natural habitats but allowing
room for innovation and response actions as the environment changes over the next century and
beyond.
The City should engage stakeholders in a discussion on shoreline resiliency that considers multiple
objectives, which could lead to more effective capital improvement plans, better access to different
financial and material resources, and approaches that provide co-benefits to issues beyond climate
change.
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 119 of 124
APPENDIX
G
–
Additional
Technical
Analysis
Transportation
emissions
attributable
to
Palo
Alto
residents
A
significant
portion
of
vehicle
emissions
result
from
non-‐residents
commuting
into
the
City
for
work.
As
Figure
8
shows,
the
number
of
jobs
in
the
City
is
significantly
higher
than
the
number
of
employed
residents.
While
the
exact
number
of
employed
residents
is
not
known,
we
have
estimated
that
75%
of
total
jobs
in
Palo
Alto
are
filled
by
non-‐residents,
and
25%
by
residents,
and
have
allocated
the
vehicle-‐
related
GHGs
proportionately.62
Figure
8:
Estimated
Palo
Alto
Jobs
Filled
by
Residents
vs.
Non-‐Residents
Category
Number
of
People
Percentage
of
Total
Jobs
in
Palo
Alto
City
Population
66,95563
N/A
Jobs
in
Palo
Alto
89,37064
100%
Employed
Persons
Residing
in
Palo
Alto
31,00765
N/A
Employed
Persons
Residing
+
Working
in
Palo
Alto
22,97666
25.7%
Jobs
in
Palo
Alto
Filled
by
Non-‐Palo
Alto
Residents
66,394
74.3%
Water
Heating
in
Businesses
Finding
an
electric
solution
to
domestic
hot
water
heating
in
any
application
is
easy,
but
not
all
electrification
strategies
are
created
equal.
The
list
below
outlines
strategies
to
move
away
from
gas
for
domestic
hot
water.
While
each
solution
might
be
the
right
choice
depending
on
the
building
design,
we’ve
outlined
these
in
general
from
most
to
least
efficient:
1. Stop
Using
Hot
Water:
Palo
Alto
is
not
going
to
start
making
people
take
cold
showers,
but
minimizing
hot
water
use
will
decrease
the
cost
to
the
community
of
transitioning
away
from
62
An
estimated
25.9%
of
employed
Palo
Alto
residents
have
a
travel
time
to
work
of
at
least
30
minutes62.
If
we
assume
that
all
of
these
employed
residents
with
a
commute
of
at
least
30
minutes
work
outside
of
Palo
Alto,
it
would
indicate
that
approximately
22,976
residents
work
in
Palo
Alto
–
accounting
for
25.7%
of
the
total
jobs
in
the
City.
The
remaining
estimated
74.3%
of
total
jobs
in
Palo
Alto
–
66,394
jobs
would
be
filled
by
non-‐residents.
63
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/06/0655282.html
64
http://files.mtc.ca.gov.s3.amazonaws.com/pdf/Plan_Bay_Area_FINAL/pbafinal/index.html
65
http://www.cityofpaloalto.org/civicax/filebank/documents/37935
66
http://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?src=CF
:
Assumes
all
residents
employed
in
Palo
Alto
with
a
commute
to
work
of
at
least
30
minutes
work
outside
the
City
limits
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 120 of 124
natural
gas.
Bathrooms
sinks
in
office
building
and
retail
stores
do
not
need
hot
water;
suddenly
a
piping
system
supplying
an
entire
high-‐rise
can
be
replaced
by
heaters
located
only
at
showers
and
kitchens.
In
addition,
low
flow
fixtures
on
domestic
hot
water
systems,
such
as
low
flow
showerheads
can
provide
immediate
payback
on
the
energy-‐side.
2. Free
Waste
Heat:
Using
free
waste
heat
from
air
conditioning
systems
can
be
extremely
effective.
This
is
most
easily
applicable
on
large
buildings
with
simultaneous
air
conditioning
and
domestic
hot
water
demand.
Think
large
hotels
or
commercial
high-‐rises
with
attached
restaurants.
3. Solar
Hot
Water:
Hotels
and
hospitals
are
ideal
candidates
for
solar
hot
water
systems
as
they
have
notoriously
high
hot
water
demand
for
showers
and
washing
of
clothes
and
linens.
Solar
hot
water
systems
are
four
times
as
efficient
at
collecting
the
sun’s
energy
as
solar
photovoltaic
systems.
However,
all
solar
hot
water
systems
need
backup
energy,
and
to
move
off
of
natural
gas,
that
back
up…
4. Heat
Pump
Hot
Water:
Heat
pumps
are
a
60-‐year
old
HVAC
technology,
but
have
only
recently
been
used
for
domestic
hot
water
heating
in
the
United
States.
They
are
250%
more
efficient
than
electric
resistance
systems
and
provide
gas-‐free
hot
water
at
a
positive
net
present
value.
5. Electric
Resistance:
Electric
resistance
hot
water
heating
is
available
in
both
tank-‐type,
and
tank-‐
less
instantaneous
configurations.
We
use
it
regularly
in
coffee
machines
and
dishwashers.
While
it
is
the
least
efficient
option
available,
it
is
simple
and
inexpensive
to
install,
and
might
be
the
best
option
in
small
facilities
with
low
demand.
Hot
water
use
in
Palo
Alto’s
commercial
building
stock
can
be
looked
at
through
two
major
differentiators
(see
Figure
9).
Commercial
buildings
that
fall
under
the
“small”
and
“low
hot
water
demand”
categories
outline
below
make
up
the
vast
majority
of
Palo
Alto’s
commercial
building
stock
and
account
for
an
estimated
80%
of
Palo
Alto’s
natural
gas
consumption
associated
with
commercial
hot
water
use67.
Fortunately,
these
types
of
commercial
hot
water
systems
present
the
lowest
cost,
immediate
opportunities
for
electrification
of
water
heating
equipment.
Concurrent
to
focusing
on
near-‐
term
retrofits
of
buildings
meeting
these
criteria,
Palo
Alto
will
also
focus
on
education
and
outreach,
and
demonstration
projects
for
larger,
more
complex
water
heating
systems.
Figure
9:
Approaches
for
Addressing
Hot
Water
Use
in
Commercial
Buildings
Small
vs.
Large
Buildings
Small
buildings,
25,000
sqft
or
smaller,
tend
to
have
all
hot
water
fixtures
grouped
into
one
or
two
primary
areas.
The
collocation
of
fixtures
and
lack
of
dedicated
piping,
make
these
buildings
simple
to
design
and
inexpensive
from
a
capital
Large
commercial
buildings
can
often
have
complicated
domestic
hot
water
piping
systems
with
hot
water
fixtures
in
different
areas
throughout
a
building.
The
volume
of
water
in
the
pipes
alone
reaches
1,000s
of
gallons.
While
some
buildings,
like
offices,
don’t
use
much
hot
water,
67
DNV
GL
analysis
based
on
gas
consumption
data
form
CPAU,
the
California
Commercial
End
Use
Survey,
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 121 of 124
cost
standpoint.
electrifying
the
system
can
be
more
complex
and
project
specific
Low
vs.
High
Hot
Water
Demand
Building
types
with
low
hot
water
demand
include
offices,
schools,
and
retail
stores.
Few,
if
any,
showers
are
taken
and
in
many
cases
the
buildings
entire
hot
water
demand
could
be
replaced
with
an
electric
resistance
hot
water
showerhead
or
kitchen
fixture.
The
low
annual
energy
use
associated
with
domestic
hot
water
means
that
even
a
technology
as
inefficient
as
electric
resistance
can
be
implemented
without
high
annual
energy
cost
implications,
so
long
as
it
is
done
intelligently,
with
the
hot
water
heating
system
located
near
hot
water
fixtures.
As
mentioned
above,
hotels,
hospitals,
and
restaurants
typically
have
high
hot
water
demand.
At
these
levels,
solar
hot
water
systems
start
to
make
sense
and
innovative
solutions
become
a
necessity
to
keep
annual
costs
down.
Systems
should
be
carefully
designed
when
switching
these
facility
types
away
from
gas
hot
water
heating.
Space
Heating
in
Businesses
Palo
Alto’s
high-‐rise
office
buildings,
hotels,
hospitals,
and
laboratories
tend
to
utilize
more
complex
systems
due
to
occupancy
type
and
overall
building
design.
Central
boiler
and
chilled
water
systems
tend
to
enable
more
efficient
HVAC
operation,
but
can
be
difficult
to
switch
over
to
all-‐electric
systems.
A
variety
of
options
exist,
some
of
which
can
run
off
the
existing
heating
hot
water
system
infrastructure,
and
some
that
require
a
drastic
HVAC
re-‐design.
Properly
timing
the
changeover
to
take
advantage
of
incremental
costs
savings
can
be
beneficial.
T
HVAC
re-‐redesign
should
be
considered
when
equipment
reaches
the
end
of
its
useful
life,
or
when
a
building
is
getting
a
major
architectural
renovation
(a
good
way
to
tell
if
a
renovation
is
‘major’
is
whether
ceilings
are
being
replaced.)
The
table
below
outlines
the
appropriate
electrically-‐heated
replacement
equipment
based
on
existing
commercial
building
heating
infrastructure.
Existing
Equipment
Becomes
Gas-‐fired
rooftop
packaged
units
Rooftop
packaged
heat
pumps
Gas-‐fired
central
boiler
systems
Solar,
Heat
recovery
chillers,
Heat
pump
hot
water,
water-‐source
heat
pumps,
or
electric
resistance
central
boiler
systems
Gas-‐fired
radiant
heating
systems
Electric
radiant
heating
systems
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 122 of 124
Space
Heating
in
Homes
Currently,
heating
in
Palo
Alto
is
typically
accomplished
using
one
of
four
systems:
1. Central
heat
pumps,
ducted
throughout
the
residence
These
systems
are
already
electrically
heated.
They
serve
as
proof
that
it
is
possible
and
practical
to
heat
with
electricity
in
Palo
Alto.
With
energy
factors
in
the
240%
range,
they
are
likely
to
be
the
standard
heating
system
in
years
to
come.
2. Central
furnaces
with
air
conditioning,
ducted
throughout
the
residence
Air-‐conditioned
homes
are
prime
candidates
to
change
to
a
heat
pump
system
when
the
furnace
or
air
conditioner
fails.
Because
they
already
have
air
conditioning,
all
the
main
components
of
a
split
system
heat
pump,
including
space
for
the
exterior
condensing
unit
are
there.
A
heat
pump
is
only
marginally
more
expensive
than
an
equivalent
air
conditioner,
due
to
its
ability
to
run
in
reverse.
3. Central
furnaces
without
air
conditioning,
ducted
throughout
the
residence
Homes
with
a
furnace,
but
no
air
conditioning
pose
the
biggest
challenge.
The
lack
of
an
air
conditioner
means
the
capital
cost
and
exterior
space
typically
reserved
for
the
residential
air
conditioner
cannot
be
leveraged
for
a
heat
pump.
There
are
a
variety
of
options
for
switching
to
electric
heating,
each
with
their
own
pros
and
cons:
Retrofit
System
Options
Pros
Cons
Central
Heat
Pump
Utilizes
existing
ductwork
High
efficiency
Option
to
add
A/C
High
capital
cost
Exterior
space
requirement
Central
Electric
Furnace
Utilizes
Existing
ductwork
Low
capital
cost
Inefficient
Ductless
Mini-‐splits
High
efficiency
Option
to
add
A/C
Zoned
High
capital
cost
Exterior
space
requirement
Does
not
utilize
existing
ducts
Radiant
Underfloor
Electric
Heats
people
instead
of
air
High
comfort
level
Zoned
Must
integrate
with
floor
Capital
cost
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 123 of 124
Radiant
Baseboard
Heats
people
instead
of
air
High
comfort
level
Zoned
Must
integrate
with
furniture
Capital
Cost
Aesthetics
4. The
Eichler
Home:
Radiant
floor,
with
hot
water
piped
throughout
the
residence.
“We
love
our
radiant
heating
system,”
is
a
common
quote
from
Eichler
home
residents.
The
midcentury
modern
design
by
Joseph
Eichler
is
a
staple
in
Palo
Alto
and
almost
always
includes
a
hydronic
radiant
floor
system.
The
system
is
characterized
by
gas-‐fired
hot
water
tanks
which
provide
hot
water
to
piping
found
underfloor
throughout
the
residence.
If
maintaining
the
current
underfloor
heating
system
is
preferred,
this
can
be
done
by
replacing
the
current
gas
boiler
with
an
electric
boiler,
or
heat
pump
hot
water
heater.
The
heat
pump
hot
water
heater
is
a
less
common
approach,
but
will
yield
high
efficiency
gains,
while
an
electric
boiler
will
result
in
increased
energy
costs
compared
to
natural
gas.68
If
maintaining
the
underfloor
system
is
not
preferred,
the
options
for
going
electric
are
the
same
as
the
options
listed
for
a
furnace
system
above.
All-‐electric
Zero
Net
Energy
Buildings
An
all-‐electric,
zero
net
energy
new
home
are
not
be
that
different
in
cost
or
appearance
than
a
typical
new
home.
In
order
to
minimize
the
cost
of
the
solar
PV
system,
it
is
important
to
consider
passive
design
strategies
to
reduce
overall
energy
requirements,
including
strategies
such
as:
¥ Orientation
and
Massing:
The
home
should
be
oriented
to
minimize
solar
heat
gain
from
east
and
west
facades,
and
maximize
natural
airflow
through
the
building.
These
strategies
will
also
provide
the
“cool
breeze”
and
“natural
daylight,”
two
features
which
increase
resale
value.
Roof
design
should
be
simple
on
the
South
side
to
allow
for
easy
and
aesthetically
pleasing
placement
of
solar
panels.
¥ Shading:
Deciduous
trees
and
overhangs
on
Southern
facades
provide
shading
which
will
drastically
reduce
air
conditioning
cost,
and
the
associated
solar
required
to
offset
that
energy.
¥ Envelope:
Proper
insulation
and
window
selection
will
ensure
heating
and
air
conditioning
costs
do
not
have
a
major
impact
on
energy
bills.
In
addition
to
reducing
energy
requirements,
zero
net
energy,
all-‐electric
homes
in
Palo
Alto
will
need
to
rely
on
the
following
electric
technologies
that
are
commonly
available
today:
¥ Heat
pump
hot
water
systems
68
Reference
Aimee
Baily
analysis
here…and
perhaps
quote
from
it
SCAP Draft Appendices 20160405.docx April 5, 2016 Page 124 of 124
¥ Heat
pump
or
radiant
electric
heating
systems
¥ Induction
ranges
and
electric
ovens
¥ LED
lighting
¥ Rooftop
solar
photovoltaics
to
generate
on-‐site
renewable
energy
Meeting Date: 04/18/2016
Earth Day Report 2016 (EDR16)
From: City Manager
This is an informational report and requires no Council action.
Executive Summary
During the past year, Palo Alto has continued to advance its sustainability commitments,
including evaluation of electrification options; drought response; managing dewatering issues;
launching a downtown transportation management association and convening a regional dialog
on mobility alternatives; and development of a new Sustainability and Climate Action Plan
(S/CAP) to provide strategic focus to existing and new sustainability initiatives.
Background
Palo Alto created its first sustainability plan in 2002, and its first Climate Protection Plan in
2007. In the intervening years it has undertaken hundreds of sustainability initiatives, which are
summarized annually in an “earth day report” (EDR). This year, because of staff focus on
development of the S/CAP, the EDR is condensed, including this summary staff report and
appendices that provide more substantial quantitative and qualitative detail.
Discussion
Sustainability and Climate Action Plan (S/CAP)
The Sustainability and Climate Action Plan (S/CAP), being brought to Council tonight, is an effort
to (1) update Palo Alto’s climate goals, strategies and actions; (2) use the S/CAP as a vehicle
integrate Palo Alto’s hundreds of sustainability-related initiatives; and (3) approach these issues
in ways than improve quality of live, build prosperity and enhance the community’s resilience—
its ability to respond effectively to stress and crisis.
Resource use
Note that while some reported data (e.g., electricity, natural gas and water use) is measured,
other reported data (e.g., emissions from transportation and solid waste) are estimates and
should be considered approximate; variations smaller than +/-10% may not be meaningful.
GHG Emissions: City and community greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions declined in 2015 to an
estimated 36% below 1990 levels, compared to 35% in 2014 (effectively no change, given the
precision of the underlying data. Updated calculation methods for transportation and solid
waste related emissions make comparison with estimates reported in prior years difficult, but
the trends are directionally the same.
GHG Emissions from City Operations: City natural gas emissions for 2015 dropped 37% since
2014, largely as a result of the City signing on to the PaloAltoGreen Gas program in July of 2015.
City solid waste related emissions have declined modestly; updated calculation methods have
shifted both current estimates and baseline year estimates.
GHG Emissions from City and Community Activities: City and community transportation related
emissions in 2015 declined an estimated 1% since 1990, and 11.5% since 2005, but have
increased an estimated 3% since 2013, possibly due to revised calculation methodologies.
(Transportation represents the largest component of Palo Alto emissions; estimates are both
the least stable as methodologies change and the least accurately estimated; staff will bring
Council a proposal to minimize that problem.) Community-wide natural gas emissions for 2015
dropped 3% since 2014, as a result of both ongoing efficiency measures and about 2% of
customers enrolling in CPAU’s opt-in PaloAltoGreen Gas program.
Water Consumption: Per capita water consumption has dropped nearly 33% since 2005, with
about one-third of that drop in the last year, largely as a result of the community’s exceptional
response to the current “drought.”
Highlights and Accomplishments from City Departments (See Attachment D)
Administrative Services Department (ASD): Drafted three year Green purchasing plan,
continued to iteratively green prioritized goods, services and purchasing operations,
Implemented eProcurement, collaborated on Urban Sustainability Director Network green
purchasing partnership
City of Palo Alto Utilities (CPAU): Achieved RPS of 26.0% in 2015, on track to 57.5% in 2017. Due
to drought conditions, hydroelectric power declined to less than 30% of CPAU’s portfolio in
2015, which necessitated purchase of additional RECs to compensate for additional market
power purchases. Grew local solar programs. Natural gas use declined 15%, largely due to
warm weather and water conservation. Launched the PaloAltoGreen Gas program, with 2%
participation by the end of 2015. Developed pilot heat pump water heater (HPWH) program.
CPAU is leading Palo Alto’s participation in the Georgetown University Energy Prize, competing
against 49 other cities for a $5m prize..
Community Services Department (CSD): Reduced the potable water use in our parks and open
space areas by 35% (based on 2013 base year). In partnership with Save the Bay and
volunteers, removed over 20,000 pounds of invasive weeds from the Baylands and planted
8,000 native plants. In partnership with Canopy, planted 135 native trees throughout the City of
Palo Alto’s parks.
Development Services: Developed and adopted New Green Building Ordinance and Energy
Reach Code. Continuing to streamline EV and other permitting processes. Studying
electrification feasibility and potential PV default requirements for new construction.
Library: Participated in Silicon Valley Reads 2016 (siliconvalleyreads.org): “Chance of Rain: The
Impact of Climate Change in our Lives.” Open Mitchell Park LEED Platinum library, and won
multiple other design awards.
Planning and Community Environment (PCE): Comprehensive Plan update; launch and support
Transportation Management Association (TMA); develop plans for expanded shuttle service;
implemented residential parking permits, developed paid parking and transportation impact
fee studies.
Office of Emergency Services (OES): Evaluating renewable back up power and microgrids for
Cubberly and other critical sites. Integrating climate and other risks into community
engagement public safety education and Community Risk Reduction and Emergency
Preparedness
Office of Sustainability (OOS): Developed S/CAP; developed Sustainability Dashboard; joined
global Compact of Mayors; convened City and regional explorations of “mobility as a service”
(MaaS); worked with other departments on electrification, procurement and other initiative.
Raised $350k in funding for EV chargers and a multi-city collaboration exploring how to more
effectively fund municipal sustainability initiatives
Public Works Department (PWD): Benchmarking City buildings energy and water use and cost.
Implementation of Title 24 Building Energy Efficiency Standards. Began drafting a Citywide
facilities energy management plan. Implemented “EV First” policy for City fleet; installed
additional EV chargers at City facilities. Advanced Regional Water Quality Control Plant
(RWQCP) recycled water program. RWQCP GHGs rose slightly in 2015.
Attachments
Attachment A: Summary of 2007 Climate Protection Plan
Attachment B: City Municipal Operations Emissions
Attachment C: Palo Alto Community and City Municipal Operations GHG
Emission
Attachment D: Highlights of Sustainability Initiatives by City Municipal
Operations
Attachment A: Summary Description of the 2007 Climate Protection Plan
NOTE: Emissions estimate have been updated since 2007, and is reflected in the body of the
report. This summary is for reference purposes only.
In December 2007 Council approved a Climate Protection Plan (CPP) that set a short, medium,
and long term goals to reduce City operations and community greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
These goals were:
1. Short Term Goal: By 2009, the City Operations will reduce emissions by 5% from 2005
emission levels for a total reduction of 3,266 metric tons of CO2.
2. Medium Term Goal: By 2012 the City Operations and Community will reduce emissions
by 5% from 2005 emissions level for a total reduction of 29,702 metric tons of CO2.
3. Long Term Goals: By 2020, the City Operations and Community will reduce emissions by
15% of 2005 levels, equal to 119,140 metric tons of CO2, and bring the community in
line with State emission reduction goals.
Outlined below in Figure 1 and Figure 2 are the City’s and Community’s GHG emissions profiles,
as outlined in the 2007 CPP. The City’s emissions of 65,329 Metric Tons of CO2e (MT CO2e) and
the community’s emissions of 728,720 MT CO2e combined is equivalent to approximately 14
tons per resident. Electricity and natural gas related emissions account for approximately 40%
of the 793,621 MT CO2e total municipal plus community emissions. (Note: the natural gas
leakage estimate has since been substantially revised downwards, from 19,358 MT CO2e to
4,717 MTCO2e.)
Figure 1: Municipal (City Operations) GHG Emission Sources in 2005
(65,329 MT CO2e)
Source: Climate Protection Plan: December 2007
Note: Natural gas leakage numbers were updated with more accurate numbers since 2007 that resulted
in considerable reduction in leakage estimates.
Figure 2: Community GHG Emission Sources in 2005
(726,720 MT CO2e)
Source: Climate Protection Plan: December 2007
B. Short Term GHG Reduction Goals
The City operations undertook a number of departmental level initiatives to meet the goal to
reduce municipal GHG emissions by 5% at the end of 2009. Utilities energy efficiency and
conservation programs were integral part of this effort. The initiative was classified under five
main categories: employee education, electricity conservation and efficiency upgrades, paper
use reduction, commute reduction, and waste reduction. A revised 2005 benchmark of 29,364
MT CO2e was established. This lower benchmark down from 65, 329 MT, figure 1 above)
reflects the reduced estimate for natural gas leakage and biogenic emissions from the waste
water treatment plant because the facility serves other cities too and Palo Alto has minimal
control over those emissions.
April 2010 Update
In April 2010, staff reported to Council that municipal GHG emissions declined by 11% in 2009
relative to the revised baseline year of 2005 (excluding employee commute estimates) (CMR:
194:10). Emissions were down from 29,364 MT CO2e to 25,518 MT CO2e. The principle
contributors to this reduction are outlined below:
Major upgrades and process improvements at the water quality plant, accounted for
75% of the reduction
o Replace natural gas used in the biosolids incinerator emission control equipment
with landfill gas that had previously been burned in a flare
o Improve aeration system and replace air diffusers
o Install more efficient motors and lighting fixtures
Upgrade building systems and fixtures
o Lighting fixture upgrades at the Elwell Court building
o Reduced lighting levels at selected locations
o City hall upgrades: motors, boilers, HVAC system
Updated 2012 GHG Reduction Goal for the City
Based on the progress made since 2007, City Council in 2010 increased the City municipal GHG
reduction goal to 20% below 2005 levels by 2012.
Attachment B: GHG Emissions of City Municipal Operations: Comparison Data
City municipal operations related emissions drivers and associated emissions are shown below.
Table B1: City Operations GHG Emission in 2005 and 2012-2015 (in MT of CO2 equivalent)
– Biogenic and Anthropogenic, no adjustment for hydro conditions or PAG purchases –
2005 2012 2013 2014 2015
Scope
1
Biogeni
c
Scope
2
Scope
1 Biogenic Scope
2
Scope
1 Biogenic Scope
2
Scope
1 Biogenic Scope
2 Scope 1 Biogenic Scope 2
Buildings
and Other
Facilities 8,723 0 1,819 7,016 0 1,155 5,365 0 0 8,177 0 0 8,053 0 0
Streetlights
and Traffic
Signals 0 0 689 0 0 534 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Water
Delivery
Facilities 2 0 67 34 0 42 91 0 0 41 0 0 54 0 0
Wastewater
Facilities 8,504 16,689 2,546 6,414 15,602 1,950 5,024 11,183 0 4,913 10,861 0 5,840 11,054 0
Vehicle
Fleet 2,835 1 0 2,546 0 0 2,399 0 0 2,523 0 0 2,373 0 0
Power
Generation
Facilities 0 0 8,570 227 0 3,839 0 0 0 23 0 0 333 0 0
Solid Waste
Facilities 6,846 2,994 29 4,336 3,765 19 6,642 2,919 0 8,470 6,436 0 8,014 5,941 0
Other
Processes &
Fugitive
Emissions 3 0 0 9 0 0 4 0 0 4 0 0 6 0 0
26,912 19,684 13,720 20,582 19,367 7,539 19,525 14,102 0 24,151 17,297 0 24,673 16,995 0
Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions are non-biogenic emissions that are caused by human activity.
Biogenic emissions are assumed to be net carbon neutral and not reported under GHG emission
reporting protocols. Scope 2 emissions from electricity were eliminated starting in 2013 by the
purchase of Renewable Energy Credits (RECs) under the Carbon Neutral Plan. Table B2 below
shows the transformation of the data in Table B1 above by excluding biogenic emissions, and
shows a 39.3% reduction in Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions from the 2005 baseline.
Table B2: City Operations GHG Emission in 2005 and 2012-2015 (in MT of CO2 equivalent)
Excludes Biogenic, not normalized for hydro conditions or PAG purchases
GHG Emissions comparison (Scope 1 & 2) 2005 2012 2013 2014 2015
Water Delivery Facilities 69 76 91 41 54
Wastewater Facilities 11,049 8,364 5,024 4,913 5,840
Vehicle Fleet 2,835 2,546 2,399 2,523 2,373
Streetlights & Traffic Signals 689 534 0 0 0
Solid Waste Facilities 6,876 4,354 6,642 8,470 8,014
Power Generation Facilities 8,570 4,067 0 23 333
Buildings & Other Facilities 10,542 8,172 5,365 8,177 8,053
TOTAL 40,629 28,112 19,521 24,147 24,667
Percentage reduction from 2005 baseline 30.8% 52.0% 40.6% 39.3%
Table B2 does not include the effects of the purchase of PaloAltoGreen resources and the
normalization of the vagaries of hydroelectric supply conditions. Table B3 below does adjust for
these two effects and shows a 47.6% reduction in emissions from the 2005 baseline year.
Table B3: City Operations GHG Emission in 2005 and 2012-2015 (in MT of CO2 equivalent)
Excludes Biogenic, normalized for hydro conditions and PAG purchases
GHG Emissions comparison (Scope 1 & 2) 2005 2012 2013 2014 2015
Water Delivery Facilities 74 64 91 41 54
Wastewater Facilities 11,269 4,659 5,024 4,616 4,225
Vehicle Fleet 2,835 2,546 2,399 2,346 2,373
Streetlights & Traffic Signals 748 387 0 0 0
Solid Waste Facilities 6,878 4,349 6,642 8,470 8,014
Power Generation Facilities 9,308 3,008 0 23 173
Buildings & Other Facilities 10,698 4,643 5,365 8,175 7,060
TOTAL 41,811 19,655 19,521 23,670 21,899
Percentage reduction from 2005 baseline 53.0% 53.3% 43.4% 47.6%
Figure 1 below graphically illustrates Table B3 and is a reproduction of Figure 1 from the body of the
report.
Figure 1: City Operations GHG Emissions: 2005 and 2012-2015 (Hydro and PAG-adjusted)
Total Emissions Reduced from 42,000 MT in 2005 to 21,900 MT in 2015
The primary drivers for GHG emission reduction performance are:
Building and Other Facilities – Due to enactment of the Carbon Neutral Plan in March 2013, all
electricity consumed by the City in 2013 had zero carbon emissions. The City began purchasing
carbon offsets through the PaloAltoGreen Gas (PAGG) program in July 2015, which reduced
emissions from natural gas consumption relative to 2014.
Power Generation Facilities – This category accounts for transmission and distribution system
losses. The City divested its ownership of the COTP transmission line in 2009, resulting in a lower
loss allocation to the City. Distribution loss-related emissions also were eliminated in 2013 due
to carbon neutral electric supplies.
Solid Waste Facilities – Closure and capping of the landfill, resulting in less methane production
and leakage in CY 2012. Higher collection and improved monitoring, combustion of biogenic
landfill gas through flaring, and uncaptured methane leakage have resulted in increased
emissions since 2014.
Streetlights and Traffic Signals – No emissions are reported due to conversions to highly efficient
LED streetlights (note, only metered fixtures are shown) and carbon neutral electricity supply.
Vehicle Fleet – Fleet Services saw a slight reduction in consumption of CNG fuels in 2014 and
2015.
Wastewater Facilities – 63% emissions reduction from 2005 baseline reflects use of landfill gas
for incinerator, optimized use of gas from incinerator tuning, and use of carbon neutral
electricity. The 16% decrease from 2013 was due to decreases in the volume of nitrogen effluent
discharge.
Water Delivery Facilities – There has been fluctuating energy use for water pumping, with a
decrease in activity for 2014 and 2015.
Palo Alto Community & City Municipal Operations GHG Emission:
Restated reduction of 33% since 2005, 36% since 1990
1990 2005 2012 2013 2014 2015
Consumption
Quantity
Emissions
(MT CO2e)
Consumption
Quantity
Emissions
(MT CO2e)
Consumption
Quantity
Emissions
(MT CO2e)
Consumption
Quantity
Emissions
(MT CO2e)
Consumption
Quantity
Emissions
(MT CO2e)
Consumption
Quantity
Emissions
(MT CO2e) Notes
Scope 1 Emissions
Natural Gas Use (therms) 36,589,986 194,000 31,374,970 166,350 30,086,536 159,519 30,336,076 160,842 26,103,713 138,402 25,491,698 135,153 1
Natural Gas Distribution Leakage 4,718 4,718 4,718 4,718 4,781 4,781 2
Palo Alto Landfill Fugitive Emissions 24,325 9,900 6,451 5,110 9,427 8,617 3
Palo Alto Landfill Gas Flaring
(biogenic) 11,993 2,994 3,765 2,919 6,436 5,941 3
Wastewater Process Emissions 8,504 8,504 6,414 5,024 4,616 4,080 4
Scope 2 Emissions -- Actual
Total Electric Load (MWh) 996,091 966,839 986,241 978,561 965,857
Hydro Supply (MWh) 548,760 413,584 406,570 266,026 251,466
Renewables Supply (MWh) 49,980 188,566 188,086 172,139 227,110
Brown Power Supply (MWh) 186,000 397,352 158,427 364,689 145,404 391,585 0 540,370 0 487,280 0 5a
Palo Alto Green Purchases (MWh) 30,601 -12,201 75,805 -30,224 N/A N/A N/A 6
Scope 2 Emissions -- Weather Adjusted***
Total Electric Load 996,091 966,839 986,241 978,561 965,857
Hydro Supply (MWh) 514,073 514,073 514,073 514,073 514,073
Renewables Supply (MWh) 49,980 188,566 188,086 172,139 227,110
Brown Power Supply (MWh) 186,000 432,038 172,257 264,200 105,339 284,082 113,266 292,324 116,552 224,673 89,579 5b
Palo Alto Green Purchases (MWh) 30,601 -12,201 75,805 -30,224 0 0 0 0 0 6
Scope 3 Emissions
Commute into, from, and within
City 331,840 371,870 319,720 319,720 329,296 329,296 7
Lifecycle Emissions From Annual
Waste Placed in Landfills 7,953 22,265 7,953 14,082 5,030 14,549 5,197 15,087 5,389 14,012 5,005 8
Landfilling Recyclable Material 22,779 22,779 14,406 14,886 15,435 14,335 8
Total Emissions (weather
adjusted, biogenic excluded)
780,119 752,130 591,373 515,497 507,346 501,267
Emission
Reduction
(since 2005)
21%
Emission
Reduction
(since 2005)
31%
Emission
Reduction
(since 2005)
33%
Emission
Reduction
(since 2005)
33%
Emission
Reduction
(since 1990)
24%
Emission
Reduction
(since 1990)
34%
Emission
Reduction
(since 1990)
35%
Emission
Reduction
(since 1990)
36%
Notes
1 Total Community supply of natural gas use/delivery. Adjusted for purchases of carbon offsets through PaloAltoGreen Gas
program.
2 Leakage from the natural gas distribution system- modeled result, unchanged over the period.
3 Now using 40CFR Part HH methodology, per AB32. Estimates provided in prior estimates have been revised to reflect current
methodology.
4 Represents N2O emissions from biological treatment process and release of Nitrogen.
5 a. Represents actual quantity of brown power related emission @ 879 lbs/MWh in 2005 and 2012; not applicable beyond
2012 due to Carbon Neutral electric supply.
b. Weather normalized (for hydroelectric generation) quantity of brown power. No GHG impact in 2015.
6 Emissions saved due to purchase of PaloAltoGreen related RECs. PAG related RECs not included in 2015 due to Carbon
Neutral electric supply.
7 Study results from Fehr and Peer (03/19/2013) using Valley Transportation Authority regional transportation model based
Vehicular Miles Travelled (VMT) and vehicular profiles - does not account for Palo Alto specific parameters related to greater
penetration of alternate fuel vehicles, bicycle use, etc. Study results under review. 2015 assumed to be same as 2014.
8 Based most recent EPA WARM methodology, based on characteristics and tons of material landfilled; prior reports relied on
2005 methodology. Landfilled amount in 2014 up 4% compared to 2012.
* Municipal emissions related to electricity and natural gas consumption included within utility load numbers; fleet vehicle
emissions also assumed to be included in community wide commute related emissions estimates made by consultant.
** Table excludes biogenic emissions related to: Landfill gas flaring and WQCP sludge incineration.
*** Normalized to account for the vagaries of weather on hydroelectric supplies. No GHG impact starting in 2013 due to Carbon
Neutral Plan.
**** 1990 emissions data, where unavailable, were assumed to be equal to 2005 values.
Attachment D: Highlights of Sustainability Initiatives by City Municipal Operations
Department Name: Administrative Services Department (ASD)
Background: ASD provides financial, analytical, budget, strategic and administrative support services for
City departments. The Purchasing Division has lead responsibility for implementing city policies to
incorporate sustainability considerations into the City’s purchasing processes.
Strategy: The Purchasing Division works closely with the City’s interdepartmental Green Purchasing
Team to bring sustainably sourced, produced and delivered products and services to all municipal
departments, and to provide track and evaluate the success and impacts of these programs.
Goals: To increase the City’s purchasing of green alternatives in goods and services and to embed green
purchasing into the organization in partnership with the City’s Public Works–Environmental Services
Division. To eliminate the use of paper for managing solicitations by moving to an entirely electronic
process.
Initiatives and Activities: The City‘s award-winning green purchasing program has “greened” structural
and landscaping pest control, custodial supplies, office supplies, certain computer and monitor
standards, and copier and printer performance requirements. We have eliminated the use of certain
plastic products and pesticides prohibited by City policy, and made significant strides to reduce
pollutants such as mercury and dioxins that are associated with the purchase of City supplies.
Top Three Sustainability Initiatives in 2015
Sustainability Initiative Objective Outcome
1. Develop 2015-2017 green
purchasing goals,
objectives, tasks and
timeline to further embed
Green Purchasing Palo Alto
operations.
Develop a three year plan
building on efforts of previous
years’ work.
Develop “default to green”
options where appropriate.
Drafted a three year plan (2015-2017)
which includes green purchasing goals,
objectives and a timeline.
See supplemental materials for plan
timeline, recommendations and related
policy.
2. Continue to iteratively
green prioritized goods,
services and purchasing
operations.
Prioritize high-dollar and high
carbon footprint purchases, and
target opportunities to reduce
waste, pollution and maximize
energy efficiency.
1. Increased the purchase of green
office supplies via Staples contract
and blocked key items from
purchase on this contract including:
foam foodware, pesticides, virgin
copy paper and antibacterial soaps.
2. Configured online purchasing of
office supplies to simplify and
encourage the purchase of 100%
recycled content copy paper and
remanufactured toner cartridges.
3. Began process to improve copier
contract to improve performance
of required preset duplexing.
4. Began RFP for less-toxic structural
pest control;
5. Close to adopting a Managed Print
Services model for refreshing the
City’s copier/printer fleet in an
effort to move towards both a
print-less environment and a more
efficient system of copier/print
usage.
3. Implement eProcurement Use new eProcurement system
to build in green purchasing
objectives into solicitations and
reduce paper use and storage.
6. Began effort to research options for
using existing SAP program to flag
priority products and services to
better measure performance and
automate more administrative
processes.
4. Urban Sustainability
Director Network Green
Purchasing Grant
Partnership
Collaborate on nation-wide grant
to identify best practices for all
aspects of public agency green
purchasing.
7. Final report will be completed in
2016 and Palo Alto will review
opportunities to update best
practices.
Data: Data hasn’t been analyzed, but partial data is available, via Staples.
Challenges: Despite strong leadership from ASD and Public Works staff, this initiative lacks dedicated
budget and there are limited staff resources.
Current reporting systems, both from vendors and internal, don’t provide sufficient information to
evaluate and manage the initiative.
Supplemental Materials:
Please see attached:
Green Purchasing Recommendations
2015-2017 Green Purchasing Workplan
Green Purchasing Policy
Department Name: Community Services Department
Background: The Community Services Department (CSD) manages 37 parks, a golf course, and open
space preserves totaling 4,165 acres of land. Other public facilities managed by CSD include three
community centers, a public art center, Junior Museum and Zoo and Children’s Theatre. Parks, open
space preserves and other outdoor public spaces provide numerous opportunities to incorporate
sustainable practices such as water conservation, replacing turf with drought tolerant plants, removing
and preventing the spread of invasive plant species, and reducing waste.
Strategy: Working alongside other City departments, such as planning, public works, and utilities, CSD
strives to manage and operate parks, open space, and other public spaces using sustainable practices
whenever possible.
Goals:
1. Maintain a 35% reduction in potable water use in the City’s parks and open space areas.
2. Manage vegetation in parks and open space areas to ensure invasive species are controlled and
amount of tree canopy is not reduced.
3. Incorporate sustainable best practices into parks and open space operations and maintenance.
Initiatives and Activities: CSD staff reduced the potable water use in our parks and open space areas by
35% (based on 2013 base year).
In partnership with Save the Bay and volunteers, over 20,000 pounds of invasive weeds were removed
from the Baylands and 8,000 native plants were planted.
In partnership with Canopy, 135 native trees were planted throughout the City of Palo Alto’s parks.
Top Three Sustainability Initiatives in 2016
Sustainability Initiative Objective Outcome
Promote restoration of native
species and habitats in
ecosystems degraded by invasive
plants.
Continue to partner with
environmental organizations to
remove invasive plant species,
grown and plant native plants,
and maintain or increase tree
canopy within parks.
CSD partners with environmental
organizations to appropriately
manage and maintain vegetation
in parks open spaces, and other
public areas.
Provide opportunities for
environmental education
Provide volunteer opportunities,
and offer summer camps.
CSD partners with environmental
organizations to provide
volunteer opportunities. CSD
offers programs and summer
camps to educate and increase
environmental awareness to the
community.
Include a sustainability policy in
the Parks, Trails, Natural Open
Space and Recreation Master
Incorporate sustainable best
practices, projects, and/or
programs to ensure the policy
Master Plan is anticipated to be
complete by December 2016.
Plan can be achieved.
Challenges: It can be a challenge balancing the recreation needs of the community with sustainable best
practices because the perception is they do not always complement one another. One example of this is
replacing grass turf areas with drought tolerant plants or dirt. This may be perceived as a lack of park
maintenance, but it is actually the result of a well-planned decision to reduce water usage in areas that
are not heavily used for recreation, or could support other types of uses such as gathering spaces or
nature walks.
Department Name: Development Services
Background: Development Services is committed to the design and construction of high-performance
green buildings that reduce the impact on natural resources and provide healthy environments to live
and work.
Strategy: Development Services will continue to provide leadership in the area of green building
programs and enforcement protocol. We will develop green building policy for new and existing building
stock that leads the State in incorporating high performance, resource efficient buildings, net-zero
energy and carbon neutral strategies, and encouraging deconstruction and recycling of construction
waste. Our policies, programs, and incentives will promote energy, water, and resource efficiency across
our community, resulting in occupant comfort, better indoor air quality, and better environmental
quality.
Goals: Our goal is to reduce water use, energy use and GHG emissions by permitted buildings by 10%
over prior year data. Our target equals a total energy use reduction amount of 4.3M kBTu/year, 10.5M
gallons/year of water, and 99.0 metric tons of CO2 (compared to 2015 performance data reported
below). Also, we have a target to reduce energy use of buildings while promoting local generation to
offset what is left to achieve Zero Net Energy consumption over the course of a year. We have published
a green building survey to better track these building metrics related to building permit applications.
Initiatives and Activities: Deliver interdepartmental training enabling all development review staff and
community to answer basic green building questions to the community. Gain approval on two
sustainability ordinances related to green building, including the green building ordinance and the
energy reach code ordinance. Continue to meet with Green Building Advisory Group for future code
cycles and to resolve issues from previous review cycles. Publish a streamlined website promoting
design clarity in green building policy and enforcement expectations.
Top Sustainability Initiatives in 2015
Sustainability Initiative Objective Outcome
New Green Building
Ordinance
Expand and update the existing
green building ordinance with new
criteria that reflects current building
technology.
Adopted a new Green Building
Ordinance, June 22, 2015. An
updated version will be
presented to City Council in 2016
to coordinate with the 2016
Building Code change.
New Energy Reach Code Conduct a cost-effectiveness study
enabling the requirement of
enforcing a 15% improvement
beyond the energy code.
Adopted a new Energy Reach
Code, September 10, 2015. An
updated version will be
presented to City Council in 2016
to coordinate with the 2016
Building Code change.
Training and Outreach Solicit input on future building code
amendments, enforce existing
codes, and support awareness and
Successful outcomes include
improved code compliance and
increased capacity from our
compliance with existing codes. community partners.
Electric Vehicle and Photo
Voltaic (PV) Installation
Permitting Streamlining
Process to move from over-the-
counter permitting to on-the-web.
This function is being
implemented as a part of Accela
Work Plan.
Study PV as Default for
New Construction
Explore feasibility of developing
“default to solar” codes and policy.
The new Energy Ordinance will
focus on energy efficiency with
solar power as a method for
compliance.
Conduct Feasibility Study
for Electrification
Explore feasibility of building code
changes related to electrification.
Present an update on the
Electrification Study at end of
2016 in accordance with the
Electrification Study work plan.
Data: FY 2015
Green Building
Performanc
e Measure
FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015
Green
Building -
revenue $
$25,808 $73,895 $94,113 $127,186 $89,911 $304,625
Green
Building
valuations
with
mandatory
regulations $
$81,238,249 $187,725,366 $543,237,137 $569,451,035 $349,128,085 $537,328,1
77
Green
Building
square feet
with
mandatory
regulations
774,482 1,249,748 1,342,448 2,441,575 3,432,025 3,982,319.
97
Energy savings
(kBtu/yr) (sf)
449 3,399 1,701 1,922,532 3,141,510 3,958,713
Water
reduction
(gallons/yr)
84,539 2,119,485 4,976,775 5,580,485 7,730,840 31,285,192
CO2 emissions
reduction
(metric tons)
1,013 2,818 21 19,269 72,168 103,270
Challenges:
Development Services faces continuous change in the area of state, local, and federal policy—
particularly policies that don’t align with the specific needs of Palo Alto.
California Energy Commission regulates how aggressive agencies can be in their pursuit above
minimum code. To affect significant change and meet our GHG reduction goals, new legislation
is needed. Development services is working with CPAU, NRDC and other cities to work with the
CEC to develop potential regulatory or legislative changes more appropriate to Palo Alto’s
carbon neutral electricity environment.
Maintaining an educated community of city staff, local architects, and contractors is a concern
that impacts our green building and energy policy.
Development Services will be rolling out a comprehensive green building training protocol to
address this challenge amongst staff and the community.
Cost effectiveness analysis that accounts for environmental costs needs to be performed to
support reach codes.
Department Name: Library
Background: The Library provides educational opportunities that provide the public with information
and resources for reducing carbon footprint, waste, energy use, and making improvements to home and
habits that encourage such a lifestyle.
Strategy: Library buildings include information about energy use and conservation, model new thinking
regarding public building design, and sustain materials collections that aid customer education about all
aspects of sustainability and the environment. For example:
Mitchell Park Library: building design as an example of sustainable building practices; architect-
developed system of “ecoglyphs” (symbols to lead to discovery of conservation/sustainable systems),
and other educational signage to teach while observing/experiencing the environment
Awards for MPLCC in 2015:
Excellence in Facility Design California Park & Recreation Society
Site Design & Low Impact Development Santa Clara Valley Urban Runoff Pollution Prevention
Program (SCVURPPP)
LEED Platinum USGBC
Library Journal Landmark Library Library Journal Magazine
Sustainable Design City of Palo Alto - Architectural Review Board
Children’s Library: heating/cooling guide on screen
Rinconada Library (formerly Main Library): building improvements from renovation to HVAC system and
incorporation of improved furnishings
Goals: Specific quantitative targets, where appropriate, described in terms of resource efficiency
metrics, GHG reductions, or other relevant indicators. (max 250 words)
Initiatives and Activities: PACL continues to host events and provide programs to all ages that passively
or purposefully provide examples to demonstrate some aspect of sustainable practices. For example,
nearly all crafts programs incorporate reuse of materials.
2015 Library Programs supporting Earth Day-related activities/goals
5/15: Family Date Night: featured the value of gardening for families
5/26-6/9: Jr. Naturalists, in collaboration w/Environmental Volunteers: met at Rinconada Library with
topic of “exploring the earth in the backyard”
5/30: Co-sponsored a talk with Acterra, several local congregations that are part of Peninsula Interfaith
Climate Action, and California Interfaith Power and Light, to present author Mary Pipher’s as a kick-off
to an “All City Read,” sponsored by the City of Palo Alto Library, reading The Green Boat: Reviving
Ourselves in Our Capsized Culture. Book discussions were held 6/4, 6, 12, 15 at different library
branches.
6/23: Island Press author Richard Willson discussed his new book, Parking Management for Smart
Growth, and ideas and solutions to parking issues that Palo Alto and other cities face.
12/17: Program titled “Replace Your Lawn with California Native Plants: Are you looking for some
alternative gardening ideas during our drought?” The California Native Plant Society presented ideas to
keep a no-water lawn and landscaping.
Monthly beginning in late 2015: Master Gardeners of Santa Clara County meet at the library
Top Three Sustainability Initiatives in 2016
Sustainability Initiative Objective Outcome
Participate in Silicon Valley
Reads 2016
(siliconvalleyreads.org): “Chance
of Rain: The Impact of Climate
Change in our Lives”
Palo Alto City Library is pleased
to be participating in Silicon
Valley Reads, an annual
community program that selects
books focused on a
contemporary theme and offers
free events throughout Santa
Clara County to engage the
public in reading, thinking, and
discussing the topic.
In 2016 Silicon Valley Reads
focuses on climate change and
introduces an emerging literary
genre, eco-fiction (also called
climate fiction), with two
outstanding books that
speculate about a future with
extreme weather: Memory of
Water by Emmi Itäranta and
Sherwood Nation by Benjamin
Parzybok. Two books for children
have also been selected: The
Storm in the Barn by Matt Phelan
and Water is Water by Miranda
Paul. The program runs
February-March 2016.
Education opportunities
regarding drought and need for
water conservation
Multiple programs and author
visits, leading to community
conversations and reflection
about water, as well as increased
awareness about the importance
of water to our daily lives.
Programs currently scheduled:
Creative Ecology: Linda Gass,
a textile artist, gives a talk on
her interest in art, ecology,
and education @ the Palo
Alto Art Center. Jan 13, 7pm.
SVR 2016 Film Series:
Screening of Water
Detectives @ 3:30 pm;
Mega-drought @ 4:00 pm;
Earth Under Water @ 5:00
pm. Feb 13 @ Rinconada
Library.
Success with Low-Water
Ornamentals: presented by
Master Gardeners of Santa
Clara County. Feb 18, 7pm @
Rinconada Library.
Silicon Valley Reads Author
Visit: Emmi Itäranta will visit
the Palo Alto City Library to
discuss her book, Memory of
Wa-ter. Mar 6, 2pm @
Rinconada Library.
Water Cycle Storytime &
Craft: A reading of Miranda
Paul’s Water is Water. Tues,
Mar 8 & Wed, Mar 9,
10:30am @ Children’s
Library.
Brown Bag Book Club: Book
group will discuss Memory of
Water. Mar 8, 11am @
Rinconada Library.
RainDance: Using Recycled
Water: RainDance is a Palo
Alto company that helps
California home owners use
recycled water for
gardening. By reducing the
use of tap water, the
company enables gardeners
to enjoy the beauty of their
land-scape all year long. Mar
10, 7pm@Rinconada Library.
Challenges: The Library’s books are still shipped from other systems and within the Library’s system,
relying on vans that depend on fossil fuel. The Library, while using energy efficient equipment,
nevertheless relies on automation which requires high energy usage. Additional open hours of service to
the public also increase the number of hours for energy use.
Department Name: Office of Emergency Services (OES)
Background:
The Office of Emergency Services works with all City departments as well as the community to promote
resilience to threats and risks of all types.
Strategy & Planning:
The mission of the Office of Emergency Services is to prevent, prepare for and mitigate, respond to, and
recover from all hazards. These hazards were recently codified in the Threat and Hazard Identification
and Risk Assessment (THIRA) that was presented to City Council in September 2014
(www.cityofpaloalto.org/thira). The THIRA lists a number of hazards that either directly (criminal
sabotage or cyber attack) or indirectly (storm that knocks out power) could endanger critical utilities and
fuel supplies. The FEMA THIRA best practice structure also encompasses the “technological or
accidental” type of incident, such as occurred in February 2010 when the small aircraft collided with the
City’s connection to the power grid.
There are a number of City plans and related documents that bear on this topic. The Continuity of
Operations Plan (COOP) (pending) will address means of keeping the City’s government in operation in
the event of disruption of City facilities, including utility-related scenarios. OES has also drafted an
Energy Assurance Plan (EAP) with the pro bono assistance of consultant Arrietta Chakos.
Palo Alto is required to revise the existing Local Hazard and Adaptation Mitigation Plan (LHMAP,
formerly LHMP), with State and FEMA approval, and Council adoption no later than 1 June 2017. The
LHMAP process will interface with S/CAP and the City’s Comprehensive Plan.
Goals:
OES is working with the Chief Sustainability Officer, the Public Works Department, Utilities, and other
staff to 1) bolster resilience for key facilities, 2) develop vehicles and systems that are resilient and
adaptable to energy disruption, supply chain problems, and other emergencies, 3) community
engagement and public safety education, and 4) explore strategies to leverage “green” initiatives to
support and realize emergency preparedness objectives.
Initiatives and Activities:
Critical Facilities:
OES is evaluating practical and cost-effective means to expand the use of renewables to reduce the risk
of power disruption for certain facilities. For example, the Cubberley Community Center is an important
resource in the event of a major earthquake or other disaster, since it 1) houses the Red Cross shelter, 2)
is an identified site for medical care by the City’s Medical Reserve Corps (MRC), 3) is a back-up location
for certain City departments per the Continuity of Operations Plan (COOP), and 4) is the location of the
City’s Emergency Services Volunteers Division Operations Center (ESV DOC). OES retained an outside
expert to evaluate the existing photovoltaic (PV) grid-tied panel system and propose a design to add
battery back-up capability, so that certain locations and systems at Cubberley would remain operational
even in a grid-down scenario.
Future key facilities include the proposed new Public Safety Building (PSB), which may incorporate
microgrids, islanding, and other alternative energy elements to reduce dependence on 1) the power grid
and 2) diesel fuel for generators, especially during prolonged incidents.
Vehicles and Portable Renewable Generation:
OES has designed, developed, and now operates a number of vehicles and portable equipment, such as
the Mobile Emergency Operations Center (MEOC). OES is investigating solar-battery generator trailers
as a means to similarly improve energy resilience for those key assets. OES is even seeking to acquire an
all-electric All Terrain Vehicle (ATV) for rescue operations and routine use (which could be the City’s
first-ever non-fossil-fueled public safety vehicle).
Community Engagement and Public Safety Education:
In addition to these energy assurance efforts, OES leads a number of other community resilience efforts,
including the Emergency Services Volunteer (ESV) program that encompasses CERT, Neighborhood
Watch, and other programs (www.cityofpaloalto.org/emergencyvolunteers), support of Stanford
University and affiliates (such as Stanford Hospital), regional public safety planning efforts, regional
training programs, coordination with private sector entities for emergency response and recovery,
technology development for public safety, grant management, and other all hazards activities. OES
believes that the development of local resources, including, for example, locally-grown farm-to-table
food (Victory Gardens!), is not only good for the environment but will help us through a crisis.
Leverage Environmental Initiatives and Maximize Value for Community Risk Reduction and Emergency
Preparedness:
The City and others have made and plan to make substantial investments to reduce greenhouse gasses,
etc. OES seeks to assist by providing input from a public safety perspective to facilitate a more complete
understanding of the consequences and potential risks of certain strategies on the one hand and to
maximize the full value of such investments.
The push to increase electric home appliances, for example, has a number of nuances. Those residences
with gas appliances (stoves, hot water heaters1) can still use them even during a power outage.
Increasing electric vehicles (EV) can create hazards (electrical problems when charging; potential risks to
first responders dealing with EVs in accidents, etc. ) that will need to be understood and addressed.
This is certainly not to say such strategies should not be explored, but rather that the full spectrum of
pros and cons should be evaluated. In many cases, there could be creative work-arounds. For example,
a resident could install a new electric water heater in parallel to the legacy gas water heater, idling the
gas water heater unless/until electricity fails.
There may be some genuine opportunities for “big thinking” in terms of resilience. Palo Alto is unique in
having its Utilities, dating back over a century to a time, originally, when the City also controlled
electrical generation. Imagine the benefits to residents, businesses, and others were the City and its
residents to again own a significant part of its electrical generation capability locally, mitigating the risk
of grid failures, future pricing and commodities uncertainty, and so forth.
Put another way, which is more worthwhile: an investment of >$100 million in a second connection to
the power grid more worthwhile? or developing local electrical power generation?
Challenges:
1 Old-school tank hot water heaters have an additional advantage after an earthquake or other disaster where the
water supply to a residence is impaired: It can be used as an emergency water source.
The Office of Emergency Services should be viewed a source of expertise, creative ideas, and operational
experience. Improved interdepartmental cooperation is needed to implement safety programs that
interconnect across City Operations.
Department Name: Planning and Community Environment 2016
Background: The Planning and Community Environment (PCE) Department is responsible for a range of
planning and implementation actions aimed at preserving and enhancing the quality of life in Palo Alto,
ensuring wise transportation investments, and facilitating land use and development decisions through
consistent and transparent processes. The department is responsible for:
• Updating, maintaining, and overseeing compliance with the City’s Comprehensive Plan
• Monitoring and enhancing the City’s transportation infrastructure
• Implementing a variety of transportation programs aimed at reducing reliance on the private
automobile and improving safety for all modes of travel
• Gathering and analyzing data in support of land-use and transportation policy
• Reviewing commercial and residential applications for planning entitlements for compliance with
the City’s zoning ordinance and applicable guidelines
• Reviewing projects for potential environmental impacts on the City and its residents
• Administration of the City's Community Development Block Grant (CDBG) programs
• Management and implementation of the City’s Housing Programs
• Oversight and implementation of the City’s Historic Preservation Ordinance
• Investigating and abating code violations
Strategy: 1-2 year: Prepare an update to the Comprehensive Plan for Palo Alto with active community
input, addressing issues related to land Use and community design, transportation, climate change and
sustainability, safety, noise, natural environment, community services and facilities, business and
economics, governance, housing
Goals: PCE’s goals for the current year are:
• Incorporate the concept of sustainability into the Comprehensive Plan where appropriate and align
with the stand-alone Sustainability/Climate Action Plan that is being prepared concurrently.
• Define and analyze a “Quality of Life” scenario for inclusion in the Comprehensive Plan Update
Environmental Impact Report (EIR), incorporating policies and programs consistent with the evolving
Sustainability/Climate Action Plan.
• Implement transportation programs to address traffic congestion and parking demand generated by
single occupant vehicles including a paid parking study and implementation of parking management
programs (e.g. RPP), creation and support of a Transportation Management Association (TMA), and
development of strategies to enhance shuttle service.
Initiatives and Activities: Top Sustainability Initiatives in Progress
Sustainability Initiative Objective Desired Outcome
Comprehensive Plan
Update
Align the Comp Plan Update with
the Sustainability/Climate Action
Plan that is being prepared
concurrently
Analysis of a “Fifth Scenario” for
inclusion in the Comp Plan EIR that
would implement the S/CAP and
address quality of life issues.
Free Shuttle Service Identify ways to increase ridership
by improving and/or expanding
Strategies are being developed
to increase trip frequency and
Sustainability Initiative Objective Desired Outcome
shuttle service in Palo Alto
ridership, and conduct
community outreach (1 year
planning phase)
Parking Management Better manage parking supplies to
meet the needs of residents,
visitors/customers, and
employees, while providing
incentivizes for non-SOV trips.
Implementation of RPP,
Implementation of parking wayfinding,
completion of a paid parking study, and
evaluation of technologies to improve
management of parking in commercial
districts (2 year planning phase)
Transportation
Management
Association support
Support activities of the new TMA
to reduce SOV trips to/from
downtown
Provide incentives to businesses,
residents, and the regional
community (3 year planning
phase)
Housing Element
Implementation
Support the development of
housing as outlined in the City’s
Housing Element
Consider ways to stimulate additional
ADU that are compatible with Palo Alto
neighborhoods, as well as micro units
and other types of multifamily housing.
Also develop an ordinance providing
incentives for small lot consolidation as
called for in the Housing Element, and
consider whether to eliminate sites
along San Antonio Road and substitute
greater densities or new sites in transit
accessible areas with neighborhood
services like Downtown, Cal Ave, or the
El Camino Corridor. Update the City’s
housing impact fees.
Transportation Impact
Fees
Assess the best way to ensure
that new development does not
contribute to cumulative traffic
congestion, and design a new
impact fee program to eliminate
or offset new trips to the extent
feasible.
Develop a new transportation impact
fee program concurrent with the Comp
Plan Update, consolidating existing
programs to the extent feasible, and
addressing the impacts of new
development via TDM, transit, and
other trip=reduction strategies.
Challenges:
PCE recognizes the importance of its sustainability-related initiatives, and has been challenged to hire
the staff needed to implement these programs. In addition, the schedule for the S/CAP has lagged
behind the Comp Plan, which is itself taking longer than originally anticipated. Therefore, it has been
challenging to align the policy framework of the two plans as well as the quantitative analysis of GHG
emission reductions.
PCE has not had the resources to gather and track meaningful metrics and is currently developing
(especially for mobility issues like transit, mode shift to cycling or walking, and parking) a data
management system to provide quantifiable evidence for program effectiveness and outcomes.
Supplemental Materials: For more information about the work being done by PCE to guide the
preservation and development of Palo Alto, please explore the website to the Comprehensive Plan:
Our Palo Alto 2030: http://www.paloaltocompplan.org/
Department Name: Public Works – Engineering Services & Public Services
Background: The Public Works department is committed to building, managing and operating City
buildings and infrastructure in a sustainable manner. This includes libraries, community centers,
theatres, fire stations, the Regional Water Quality Control Plant, offices and other buildings, parks,
athletic fields, roads, bridges sidewalks and the Urban Forest. Sustainable practices are incorporated
into major building renovations, maintenance, infrastructure projects and everyday work practices.
Strategy: Public Works assesses the performance of City-owned facilities, identifies areas for
improvement, and develops phased improvement programs to be optimized through monitoring energy
and resource use to provide high quality service to the Palo Alto community. Optimization is achieved
through improved building management systems and regular assessments of these systems.
Goals: The overarching operational objective of Public Works is to design, construct and renovate
efficient and healthful City facilities and infrastructure, operate and maintain them in good order for the
comfort and productivity of occupants and users. By optimizing operations, the department seeks to
reduce operating costs and negative impacts and improve the reliability of the building systems through
continuous improvement of resource efficiency, and to extend the useful life of the buildings consistent
with these goals.
Initiatives and Activities: Through various Capital Improvement Projects, Public Works is working to use
energy more efficiently and reduce water usage. Parks renovations include drought-tolerant
landscaping and trees and more efficient irrigation systems. Building projects are utilizing efficient LED
lighting, more efficient HVAC systems, cool roofing materials, and water saving fixtures. Street
resurfacing and related concrete work are utilizing recycled aggregates and other waste products such
as tire rubber and fly ash. We are following the best business practices for recycling of construction
related debris on all projects, and evaluating opportunities for salvage of materials. Storm water
pollution measures are being implemented in building, parks and street projects.
Public Works is incorporating “green infrastructure” in all applicable projects. Green infrastructure is
defined as storm drain and other water capture infrastructure on public and private lands (including
roads and parking lots) that includes low impact development such as infiltration, biofiltration, and/or
storage and use of best management practices to collect, retain, or detain stormwater runoff to limit the
discharge of pollutants from streets to the storm drain system. Green infrastructure provides amenities
with many benefits beyond water quality improvement and groundwater replenishment, including
creation of attractive streetscapes, habitat, reduction of heat island effect, and bicycle and pedestrian
accessibility. Palo Alto has completed a Green Infrastructure project in the Southgate Neighborhood.
We have installed full trash capture devices on Storm Drain mains identified as potentially having high
trash content on Park Boulevard at Ventura Ave and a second location at Park Boulevard.
The City’s stormwater discharge is permitted by the Municipal Regional Stormwater Permit (MRP), a
regional permit covering 76 Bay Area municipalities. The permit was just reissued and includes
requirements for Green Infrastructure planning and development. The permit includes requirements to
develop a Council-approved framework, a mechanism to prioritize projects and criteria, a list of
prioritized projects, design guidelines/standard specifications, ordinance changes, and a funding
plan. The permit also requires an update of relevant planning documents (such as comprehensive plan,
specific plan, transportation plans, storm drain master plan, pavement work plan, and urban forestry
plan).
Top Sustainability Initiatives in 2015
Sustainability Initiative Objective Outcome
Benchmark City buildings for
comparison of resource use and
cost
Utility Track Software has been
acquired and installed in
Facilities Management. Staff will
create benchmarks and compare
with similar buildings in the state
and the nation, and identify and
prioritize opportunities for
improvement.
This information will be shared
with Engineering Services to
identify opportunities for
improvement.
Construction of Mitchell Park
Library and Community Center
(designed for LEED Platinum
certification) and the Renovated
and Expanded Rinconada Library
Create new or renovated library
and community center space
that is energy efficient using
sustainable building practices.
Construction of both projects
was completed in 2014. The
Mitchell Park Library and
Community Center was awarded
a LEED Platinum certification in
2015. Rinconada Library is in
process, with the facility
expected to achieve LEED silver
certification.
Water Efficiency Efforts Reduce use of potable water in
construction activities
New specifications were
incorporated into Public Works
construction projects requiring
use of recycled water for dust
control and other applications.
Substitution of recycled water
for dust control and grading
activities at the El Camino Park
Restoration project alone saved
250,000 gallons of potable
water.
New requirements for basement
construction dewatering were
implemented in 2015, providing
“fill stations” at each of the 14
dewatering sites that allowed
filling of water trucks and use by
neighbors of shallow nonpotable
groundwater that is otherwise
discharged to the storm drain
system.
Implementation of Title 24
Building Energy Efficiency
Standards
Sustainable work practices for
building system maintenance
include improvements in
mechanical, electrical, and
plumbing systems.
Mechanical improvements
include the use of cool roofing
materials to meet Title 24
Building Energy Efficiency
Standards, replacing air
conditioning units with more
energy efficient units (when
existing units need replacement)
and using Building Management
Systems (BMS) to control and
monitor and mechanical and
electrical equipment (including
lighting) via computers in some
facilities. Electrical
improvements include the use of
LED lighting, the use of
occupancy sensors, and bi-level
lighting for parking garages.
Plumbing improvements include
the use of low flow urinals and
low flow toilets.
Park Renovation Projects Park renovation projects
managed by Public Works
incorporate sustainable
landscaping and turf elimination
to conserve water whenever
possible.
The El Camino Park Restoration
project was completed in 2014.
This project incorporated a new
artificial turf playing field that is
expected to save approximately
two million gallons of water
annually. The project also
included a new 10-foot wide bike
path with 5,500 square feet of
pervious concrete to allow on-
site infiltration of rain water.
Procurement and Use of
Environmentally Preferable
Construction Materials
Street resurfacing projects
include recycled aggregate in the
asphalt mix and base rock.
Major arterials are being paved
with rubberized asphalt utilizing
recycled tire rubber. Sidewalks,
curbs and gutters are replaced
with concrete that contains
approximately 25% fly ash by
volume. Paving work on Alma
Street and Middlefield Road in
2015 used 1,865 tons of
rubberized asphalt.
Procurement and Use of
Environmentally Preferable
Consumables
The City uses sustainable
purchasing guidelines.
City facilities are cleaned with
environmentally friendly Green
Seal Certified cleaning chemicals
and no chlorine and post-
consumer content paper towels
are supplied in restrooms. Pest
management also focuses on
prevention and then using non-
toxic pesticides.
Develop a City wide facilities
energy management plan
Development of an energy
management plan to guide the
acquisition and installation of
energy conservation measures in
City –owned buildings
Begin drafting this plan with
input from Engineering Services,
Public Services/ Facilities and
Environmental Services.
Fleet electrification Shift fleet from fossil and CNG
fueling to EVs, as possible.
Conducted cost-effectiveness
analysis; established “EV First”
policy, and began replacing
vehicles. Evalutating 3rd party
leasing options to accelerate
fleet electrification
Data:
CY 2014
Row Labels Sum of Electric
(kWh)
Sum of Gas
(Therms)
Sum of Water
(ccf)
Buildings and other facilities 11,271,283 431,145 148,492
Other process and fugitive emissions 1,210 0 0
Power generation facilities 380,030 4,292 149
Solid waste facilities 124,524 0 154
Streetlights and traffic signals 665,701 0 3,903
Wastewater facilities 16,582,000 455,748 1,551
Water delivery facilities 686,565 107 15,291
#N/A 2,252 0 72,796
Grand Total 29,713,565 891,292 242,336
Year Electricity
(kWh)
Electricity
Cost
Gas Usage
(Therms)
Gas Cost Water Usage
(CCF)
Water
Cost
Annual
Totals
2014
29,713,565
$3,126,178
891,292
$938,600
242,336
$1,893,504 $5,958,281
2013
28,809,795
$3,193,814
842,020
$832,556
283,943
$2,137,872 $6,164,243
2012 $3,331,729 $780,787 $1,650,344 $5,762,860
29,037,416 827,295 230,204
Challenges: As stated in previous reports, when existing building systems are renovated or replaced, air
conditioning is being added where it previously didn’t exist. This additional system tends to flatten the
overall potential energy savings of the newer more efficient heating systems and lighting. At Rinconada
Library, geothermal wells were used to help mitigate this challenge.
Historical preservation requirements are also a challenge. At Rinconada Library, the large grass lawn
was a key historic feature of the overall site. It was therefore not possible to convert this to drought-
tolerant landscaping and reduce irrigation needs. However, the project installed “purple pipe” so that it
can easily be converted to recycled water when that system is expanded throughout the City.
Public Works has completed a third party independent Facilities Management Organizational Study to
evaluate the efficiency of our maintenance of Facilities. This study was conducted by Matrix Consulting.
In the study, Matrix called out 10 recommendations related to Energy Management. Our newly
appointed Facilities Manager will be analyzing these recommendations with the Engineering Services
Division in the coming months. Staff anticipates development of new processes related to identification
replacements, standards for replacements and use of energy audits.
In this regard, reducing the energy and water usage is an important consideration. Energy and water
usage can be tracked through our Utility Track software to determine the impact of efficiency and
conservation initiatives.
Department: Public Works– Fleet Division
Overview: The Public Works Fleet Division is responsible for maintenance, repairs, and compliance of all
City of Palo Alto vehicles and equipment. The division is charged with meeting all local, state, and
federal air pollution requirements and vehicle safety standards. It also conducts the proper disposal of
declared surplus and acquisition of replacement vehicles and equipment. The division’s mandate is to:
1. Maintain fleet availability by providing the vehicles and equipment to all of the departments
daily in order for the departments to be able to provide the services to the City of Palo Alto.
2. Work with all operators, managers and departments, to prevent air pollution by training the
drivers on reducing idle time as well as demonstrate the proper and safe use and operation of
the vehicles and equipment.
3. Perform preventive maintenance inspections and repairs on a daily basis to all of the vehicles
and equipment.
4. Ensure regulatory compliance with the BAAQMD, BAR, CHP, DOORS, OSHA and CAL OSHA.
5. Perform vehicle and equipment usage analysis to be able to identify underutilized vehicles and
equipment and recommend right-sizing the number of vehicles and equipment needed in the
City of Palo Alto.
Strategy: Improve fleet efficiency and reduce vehicle and equipment emission by electrifying the fleet,
maintaining it in top operating conditions, and training staff in safe and efficient operation.
Goals: The Fleet Division is moving toward a low-emission transportation future with these department
goals:
1. Identify new technologies and bold strategies to reduce fleet GHG emissions
2. Reduce unleaded fuel consumption by at least 10% each year, by scheduling
replacement of all vehicles older than 10 years with current electric or low emissions
models.
3. Meet or exceed all regulatory requirements for air pollution reduction and air emissions
required by BAAQMD, BAR, DOORS, PERP and EPA while providing an increasingly high
level of service to all members of the Palo Alto community.
Initiatives and Activities: Fleet Services has been replacing gasoline-powered vehicles and other
equipment with cars and trucks that use alternative fuels, such as compressed natural gas, or electric
vehicles (EV). The City invested in a compressed natural gas (CNG) fueling station at the Municipal
Service Center for the 10% CNG vehicles in the fleet. However, choices for vehicle types are limited from
manufacturers. We have replaced three vehicles with 2015 Toyota Prius hybrids, running on 87-octane
unleaded fuel, replaced one vehicle with a 2016 Ford Focus electric, and have budgeted to replace one
more vehicle with a Ford Focus electric in the 2016 fiscal year. We have developed a new policy (early
2015) to preference the purchase or lease for EVs over CNG, where appropriate, to take advantage of
the City’s carbon-neutral electricity.
Top Sustainability 2014 Initiatives and Activities:
Sustainability
Initiative
Objective Outcome
Reduce
Greenhouse Gas
emissions
Monitor and reduce
GHG emissions
associated with
vehicles and
equipment
Number of vehicles purchased and gas powered
vehicles retired (data in progress)
-15% GHG emissions change from 2005 baseline year
through 2014?
Reduce unleaded
and diesel fuel
consumption in the
fleet
Establish policy and
procedure for the
operators to minimize
the idle time on the
vehicle and
equipment they are
using.
Reduce the number of
vehicles and
equipment in the fleet
by performing a
vehicle utilization
analysis and identify
those vehicles that
could be declared
surplus and sold at
auction.
The City has established an anti-idle policy, outlined in
Policy And Procedures 4-01/PWD, in an effort to reduce
vehicle/equipment idle time which will reduce fuel
consumption and our GHG emissions. The City also
introduced into policy Remote Vehicle Monitoring
Systems (RVMS), outlined in Policy And Procedures 4-
09/PWD. Specific uses of RVMS will be to ensure proper
use of City equipment and promote fuel efficiency.
Pool car utilization analysis was conducted and a total of
four vehicles were identified as being underutilized.
These vehicles are scheduled for surplus in FY 2016.
Through fleets efforts over the last two years both diesel
and unleaded fuel consumption were reduced in CY
2015.
Data:
Table: Fuel Use by Type (Gallons), 2005-2015)
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
2015
Gasoline 149,861 156,142 152,153 146,398 131,096 137,850 146,595 147,849 146,479 150,732
146,977
Diesel 97,676 103,888 131,810 131,423 122,341 126,500 134,262 95,036 83,539 83,535
74,557
Biodiesel
(B20) 46,667 27,261 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0
CNG (City
operations) 20,217 18,799 28,197 36,387 36,713 49,948 36,554 40,136 37,854 24,427
15,862
CNG
(PASCO,
PAUSD) 44,273 60,928 80,491 88,088 86,786 87,635 85,872 91,125 86,570 51,492
56,405
Fleet GHG Emissions (Metric Tons of Carbon Dioxide Equivalents, CO2e), 2005-2014
Fuel Type 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Gasoline 1,316 1,371 1,336 1,285 1,151 1,210 1,287 1,298 1,286 1,323
1,290
Diesel 997 1,061 1,346 1,342 1,249 1,292 1,371 970 853 853
761
Biodiesel (B20) 381 223 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
-
CNG (City
operations) 139 129 193 250 252 343 251 275 260 168
109
CNG (including
PASCO, PAUSD) 304 418 552 604 595 601 589 625 594 353
387
Total Emissions
(excluding
PASCO, PAUSD)
2,833 2,783 2,875 2,877 2,652 2,845 2,909 2,544 2,399 2,344
2,547
Percent Change
from 2005
baseline
-1.80% 1.50% 1.60% -6.40% 0.40% 2.70% -10.20% -15.30% -17.3% -10.1%
Challenges:
Existing fleet fueling data software has undergone a series of upgrades in order to provide better
functionality, and data management. With the new software upgrades the reporting capabilities have
increased greatly. However, the lack of staff training in creating reports leaves us unable to benefit from
the new capabilities at this time. The department is exploring costs for on-site Crystal Reports specific
training.
Programs designed for traditional fleet maintenance goals haven’t been focused on meeting the bold
target of 80% GHG reduction by 2050; the department needs to develop new programs and manage its
performance to achieve its incremental annual reduction targets.
Fleet’s vehicle replacement program was developed when CNG fueling was the environmentally
preferred option; with the advent of carbon-neutral electricity, EVs are now preferred from an
environmental perspective. In 2015 staff determined that EV sedans can also be less expensive on a
total cost of ownership (TCO) basis if vehicles are leased, and the City Manager established an “EV first”
policy. Staff has also been in discussion with vendors offering a turnkey fleet electrification program.
However some staff perceive EVs as less desirable replacement options than current model gas-
powered vehicles for some service requirements, so staff education and “ride and drive” opportunities
will be important to build staff awareness of current options..
Supplemental Materials:
Greenhouse Gas Reduction from Fleet Division: Section 12 in 2015 Clean Bay Plan, available at
cleanbay.org.
Reduced unleaded and diesel fuel consumption in the fleet: Section 12 in 2015 Clean Bay Plan, available
at cleanbay.org.
Compliance with regulatory and policy requirements to reduce other priority air pollutants in the
atmosphere: 2015 CleanBay Plan report, located at cleanbay.org.
Department: Public Works–Watershed Protection & Regional Water Quality Control Plant
Background: The Public Works–Watershed Protection Division in collaboration with the Regional Water
Quality Control Plant (RWQCP) works to reduce pollutants entering the Bay through award-winning
pollution prevention, pretreatment, stormwater and air management programs. Since 1990, the goals of
the RWQCP and Watershed Protection have been to:
1. Treat wastewater from the RWQCP six-community service area of East Palo Alto Sanitary
District, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Palo Alto, Mountain View, and Stanford;
2. Work with industry and businesses to prevent pollution;
3. Ensure regulatory compliance with the RWQCP wastewater discharge permit, air permit,
and the Stormwater Permit; and
4. Provide residential services and education to prevent pollution in Palo Alto’s creeks and San
Francisco Bay.
Strategy: Given strict stormwater and wastewater permit requirements, Palo Alto must explore all
feasible methods of reducing its metals and toxic organic pollutant discharges to San Francisco Bay.
After initially focusing on pretreatment programs at major industrial facilities, the RWQCP expanded its
efforts to include commercial and residential programs. Strategies include:
Commercial and industrial: Integrating pollution prevention into business requirements via
ordinance and incentives such as the Clean Bay Business Program;
Residential: Providing programs with collection services for pollutants of concern
(e.g., pharmaceuticals and sharps) and extensive public outreach including classroom
presentations throughout the RWQCP service area; ongoing informational campaigns
coordinated locally, regionally and state-wide; workshops, tours and special events;
Leverage opportunities to improve and expand recycled water use and infrastructure.
Key 2015 Goals: Watershed Protection had several 2015 goals to reduce industrial and residential
pollutants for stormwater and wastewater, including the following higher-profile efforts:
1. Identify strategies to reduce greenhouse gasses (GHGs) associated with wastewater treatment
and continue to meet goal of 20% reduction from 2005 emissions;
2. Promote the use of RWQCP recycled water through the Residential Truck-Fill Program, salinity
reduction efforts, regional collaboration, and pipeline expansion efforts;;
3. Work towards meeting the 60% trash reduction (volume) target by July 1, 2016 in Palo Alto
creeks, streets and Bay shoreline as part of the Municipal Regional Stormwater Permit
requirement;
For a complete summary of 2015 pollution prevention efforts see the 2016 Clean Bay Plan report
located at cleanbay.org.
Top Three Sustainability 2015 Initiatives and Activities:
Sustainability Initiative Objective Outcome
1. RWQCP Greenhouse
Gas Reductions
Continue to reduce and
track GHG emissions
associated with wastewater
treatment.
1. RWQCP GHG emissions have reduced to 16,608
metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalents (MT CO2e),
a 41% reduction since 2005. This reduction marks the
continuous achievement of the goal set forth in the
2010 update to the City of Palo Alto’s Climate
Protection Plan: 20% reduction of City GHG emissions
below 2005 emissions by 2012.
2. The RWQCP purchases carbon neutral power from
the City’s electricity portfolio and since July 2015 has
purchased natural gas from the City’s green gas
portfolio.
3. In early January, 2015, Council approved a contract
with CH2M-Hill to design the facilities needed to
phase out the City’s sewage sludge incinerator as
soon as possible and replace it with a dewatering and
truck off-haul facility. This is expected to greatly
reduce RWQCP GHG emissions.
4. A GHG and Energy Factsheet was created in 2015 to
provide concise information regarding historical and
projected GHG emissions.
Note: For more information, see Section 11 in 2016 Clean
Bay Plan available at cleanbay.org.
2. Recycled Water
Expansion
Promote the use and
expansion of the RWQCP
Recycled Water Program as
a sustainable and reliable
alternative source of water.
1. In 2015, Watershed Protection staff has worked
closely with the Santa Clara Valley Water District, the
City of Mountain View, and the City of Palo Alto’s
Utility Department to identify expansion
opportunities for the RWQCP’s Recycled Water
Program.
2. In 2015, City Council approved the Environmental
Impact Report for Phase III expansion of the recycled
water pipeline.
3. In 2015, the RWQCP expanded its truck-fill program
to include residential customers and experienced a
580% increase in active recycled water permits.
4. Watershed Protection Staff, in collaboration with the
Santa Clara Valley Water District and City of
Mountain View, have moved forward with a
feasibility study of enhancing the quality of the
RWQCP recycled water by adding an advanced
treatment system such as reverse osmosis. An
advanced treatment system is expected to
significantly decrease recycled water salinity
amongst other water quality improvements.
5. RWQCP staff has continued efforts to identify
sources of increased salinity from leaking
wastewater collection system pipes.
Note: For more information, see Section 12 in 2016 Clean
Bay Plan available at cleanbay.org.
3. Trash Reduction in
creeks, streets, and
along Bay
1. Meet Municipal
Regional Permit
performance guideline
of 60% trash reduction
by 2016 along Palo Alto
creeks and shoreline
and future
requirements of 70% by
July 1, 2017 and 90% by
July 1, 2019.
2. Expand Palo Alto’s
Plastic Foam Ordinance
to prohibited retail sale
or distribution of plastic
foam products.
1. In December 2014, The Regional Board confirmed
that Palo Alto had met its 40% trash reduction
requirement.* The City of Palo Alto reported 60%
trash reduction and 71% reduction in the 2015
annual report. The Regional Board reissued the
stormwater permit in November 2015 with new
requirements. Trash reduction is currently
quantified based on on-land visual assessments (i.e.
monitoring of trash reduction activity success) and
the success of product bans.
2. In December 2015, Council expanded the
current plastic foam ordinance to prohibit retail
sale or distribution of foam ice chests,
foodware, packaging materials and egg cartons.
Food service establishments have been
prohibited from using plastic foam since 2010.
The ordinance will go into effect on March 1,
2016.
* More info located in the Long-Term Trash Plan and the
2014-15 Stormwater Annual Report:
** For more information, see Section 7 in 2016 Clean Bay
Plan available at cleanbay.org.
Data:
1. RWQCP GHG Emissions Data
The RWQCP GHG emissions stem from the treatment of wastewater collected from the City of Palo Alto
as well as its Partner Agencies (Mountain View, East Palo Alto Sanitary District, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills,
and Stanford). The RWQCP has five major sources of GHG emissions: electricity usage, natural gas
combustion for office heating, sewage sludge incineration (natural gas, landfill gas, and biosolids
combustion), biological treatment of wastewater, and baylands conversion of wastewater discharge
(Figure 1).
RWQCP GHG emissions decreased by 41% since 2005 mainly due to the purchase of green natural gas
beginning in 2015, purchase of 100 percent green power electricity since 2013, use of landfill gas as a
replacement for natural gas in the incinerator afterburner since 2005, and decreased incinerator hearth
natural gas usage due to regular incinerator tuning (Figures 2).
RWQCP GHG emissions as reported to the California Air Resources Board may differ from the values
presented in Table 1 due to different high heat values, global warming potentials, and/or emission
factors. RWQCP GHG emissions contained in this report were calculated using a static document, the
Local Government Operations Protocol, Version 1.1 (2010) for analysis of historical trends and
reductions; in contrast, the California Air Resources Board has periodically updated their GHG
calculation methods to better reflect recent advances in science and federal regulations.
Figure 1: RWQCP 2015 Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Source
Figure 2: Historical RWQCP Greenhouse Gas Emissions as Calculated by the Local Government Operations Protocol, Version
1.1 (2010)
2. Recycled Water Expansion Data
RWQCP total recycled water usage remained relatively constant from 2014 to 2015 with a slight
decrease most likely due to increased water efficiency efforts (Figure 3). Despite the relatively constant
total usage of recycled water, active recycled water permits significantly increased (Figure 4). In 2015,
61 active recycled water permits were reviewed and approved for use; this is a 580% increase from
2014 when only 9 recycled water permits were active.
RWQCP routinely monitors the quality of the recycled water it produces for numerous parameters. One
such parameter is salinity. Salinity is of particular concern for use of recycled water to irrigate salt-
sensitive vegetation (such as Redwood Trees) as well as for use in industrial cooling towers. The RWQCP
analyzes Recycled Water salinity using numerous metrics: total dissolved solids (TDS), sodium adsorption
ratio (SAR), and specific conductivity. RWQCP and its partner agencies (referenced above in
“Background”) are taking efforts to decrease salinity entering the RWQCP from their collection systems
(Figure 5). In addition, Watershed Protection, in collaboration with the Santa Clara Valley Water District
and City of Mountain View, are undertaking a feasibility study for the addition of an advanced water
purification system at the RWQCP that would further enhance the recycled water quality, including
significant decreases in salinity.
Figure 3: Historical Recycled Water Usage.
Figure 4: Historical Active Recycled Water Permits.
Figure 5: Historical Recycled Water Salinity (total dissolved solids).
3. Continue to meet regulatory requirements for additional pollutant reduction- The RWQCP has many
numerical and programmatic regulatory requirements for pollutant reduction. An annual report of
compliance and programmatic achievements is provided at cleanbay.org.
Challenges
1. Future GHG Reductions: The RWQCP has made large reductions in GHG emissions over the past
5 years due to incinerator tuning, landfill gas replacement of natural gas in the afterburner,
aeration basin optimization, installation of variable frequency drive lift pump controls for the
trickling filters, as well as purchasing green energy options. As aging or deficient pumps and
motors are replaced, the most energy efficient options available will be installed. Ongoing
RWQCP optimization will continue, however the major GHG reductions from optimization
projects have already occurred. RWQCP GHG emissions associated with biological treatment
and baylands conversion are expected to gradually increase overtime as water conservation
increases while at the same time the service area population and economy grow. Future GHG
reductions will be largely contingent on future plans to phase out sewage sludge incineration
expected in 2019, the new biosolids treatment process expected in 2025, and the availability of
landfill gas as a replacement for natural gas in the incinerator (Figure 6). Landfill gas is used as
much as possible in the incinerator afterburner. However the lower quality of landfill gas
requires that natural gas continue to be used in other areas of the incinerator. Additionally,
maintenance requirements on the landfill gas collection and distribution system varies from
year-to-year and often makes landfill gas unavailable for RWQCP use thus requiring more
natural gas be used during those times.
Figure 6: RWQCP GHG Emissions & Projected Future Decreases from Change in Biosolids Treatment Processes.
2. Drought and Increased Economic Activity: Drought conditions in the service area have
increased water conservation efforts and significantly decreased flows entering the RWQCP
(12% from 2009 to 2015). Additionally, the recent economic recovery and growth in the service
area (for example the increase in Google employees) increases the daytime population that
increases inputs to the RWQCP from toilet flushing versus more dilute inputs such as showering.
Decreased flows combined with increased daytime populations have a combined impact of
increased loads and concentrations of pollutants such as ammonia and total dissolved solids
(salinity). Higher pollutant loading and concentrations strain the current treatment process that
was originally designed for treating more dilute wastewater. This issue is anticipated to pose
continued challenges with meeting permit limits and internal goals (such as salinity reduction
goals) should drought become more common with predicted climate change.
3. Recycled Water: One of the challenges with recycled water is that its quality is very dependent
upon the quality of the wastewater that is sent to the RWQCP for treatment. Leaky pipes and
transmission lines increase the salinity that must be removed at the RWQCP for future
expanded use of the recycled water. Locating and subsequently relining these leaky pipes is
challenging and requires not only special evaluations but also cross-departmental collaboration.
Another challenge with the expansion of the RWQCP’s Recycled Water Program is the required
expansion of the recycled water transmission pipelines. Current pipelines are limited to the
area adjacent to the RWQCP. Expanding this pipeline is expensive and may not be cost effective
depending on the expected demand for recycled water. The last major challenge for the
expansion of the Recycled Water Program is the impact from prolonged drought and increased
economic activity. Refer to Challenge No. 2 for more details on drought and increased economic
challenges.
4. Trash Reduction: The primary challenge is measuring the impact the City’s programs have on
the amount of trash in the creeks and Bay since trash is also transported to creeks and the Bay
via wind and direct dumping and not only via the storm drain system. This is a challenge faced
by all stormwater co-permittees (the regional stormwater permit is shared by cities in all nine
Bay Area Counties). Palo Alto will continue its programs to manage illegal dumping and to
provide clean-up events in an effort to address this challenge. The new stormwater permit
requires development of tools and protocols for receiving water trash monitoring which will be
developed regionally.
5. Sea Level Rise: New facilities being built at the plant will have flooring installed at 10.5 feet
above Mean Sea Level (MSL), or higher, in addition to plans to construct levees outboard of the
Plant at ~ 16 feet above MSL. The levees will protect the plant from a sea level rise of ~ 3 feet.
Supplemental Materials:
The 2016 Clean Bay Pollution Prevention Plan can be found
http://www.cityofpaloalto.org/news/displaynews.asp?NewsID=1527&TargetID=150
Department Name: Public Works Environmental Services Division, Zero Waste and Landfill Operations
Background: The City of Palo Alto adopted a Zero Waste policy in 2005. Since then, the City as a whole
dramatically has reduced the amount of material going into landfills. The City now has a waste diversion
rate of 80 percent, up from a 63 percent diversion rate in 2005.
The City’s solid waste related greenhouse gas emissions stem primarily from two sources: (1) the
fugitive emissions from the landfill where materials are buried; and (2) the emissions that are a result
from having to mine or fabricate new resources (e.g., aluminum, glass, paper, plastic, etc.) instead of
recovering these resources from recycled materials. Simplifying the residential recycling collection
process, collecting and composting commercial food scraps, and engaging the community with effective
zero waste marketing campaigns, are programs that have helped the City progress towards its
greenhouse gas emissions reduction goals as well as zero waste goals.
While economic activity and construction have an impact on the overall amount of material disposed,
Zero Waste programs have helped keep tens of thousands of tons of material out of the landfill. In 2008,
68,228 tons were disposed in landfills. By 2014, that amount was reduced to 43,730 tons, a 46%
reduction. Many more tons are now recycled or composted at homes, businesses, and construction
sites. The amount of recyclable materials collected and diverted from the landfill increased from about
13,000 tons diverted in 2008 to 19,378 tons in 2014. Commercial compost collection, which started in
2009, diverts over 11, 580 tons per year of food scraps and food soiled paper from the landfill. On July 1,
2015, all single-family residential customers could now place food scraps and soiled paper directly into
the green, yard trimmings cart as part of the residential curbside compost collection program. For new
construction, 75 percent of all material must be recycled or reused on site as part of the City’s Green
Building Program put into place in 2013, which superseded the Construction and Demolition Debris
Ordinance of 2004.
The Palo Alto Landfill is owned, monitored and maintained by the City of Palo Alto. The municipal solid
waste landfill operated from the 1930’s to 2011 and is now in the closure/post-closure phase. The long-
planned end use of the landfill is parkland. The Environmental Services Division in the Public Works
Department is responsible for the closure and post-closure care of the landfill. By law, the City is
required to monitor the landfill for a minimum of 30 years to assure it does not pose an environmental
hazard resulting from the release of landfill gas or the creation/release of leachate—the liquid that is
created inside the landfill that must be pumped out for treatment at the Palo Alto Regional Water
Quality Control Plant (RWQCP). Landfill gas is collected and either combusted in the RWQCP sludge
incinerator facility or flared.
Strategy:
The zero waste strategy seeks to eliminate waste wherever possible, and then manage the discards we
do create through reuse and recycling. Cities tend to focus on “end of pipe” solutions to recover
materials for recycling and/or composting. Palo Alto goes even further by emphasizing the elimination of
waste with programs like the food waste reduction program and internal environmentally preferred
purchasing policies.
For the landfill, staff has pursued two strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions: 1) capping the
landfill; and, 2) beneficially reusing the landfill gas.
Goals:
Achieve a 90 percent diversion rate by 2021.
Improve consumption habits and reduce the total amount material sent to the landfill.
Provide local recycling and composting resources.
Finalize landfill closure and conversion to parkland
Maximize the amount of landfill gas sent to the Regional Water Quality Control Plant.
Initiatives and Activities:
A Recycling and Composting Ordinance for commercial customers was adopted by Council on January
25, 2016, which would require commercial customers to subscribe to compost service and properly sort
both their recyclable and compostable materials. The proposed ordinance– currently planned for early
2016, may yield GHG emission reductions in excess of 22,000 MT CO2e per year.
The landfill closure work was completed in November 2015. The closure work included constructing a
new alterative design cap called an evapotranspirative cap. Completion of the cap is expected to reduce
the amount of fugitive landfill gas emissions. In addition the landfill continues to send landfill gas to the
Regional Water Quality Control Plant where it is used in their incinerator. This reduces the amount of
carbon dioxide emitted by the combustion of landfill gas.
Top Sustainability Initiatives in 2015
Sustainability Initiative Objective Outcome
Food Waste Reduction program
Deliver outreach messages and
tools to residents and businesses
on how to reduce the amount of
food wasted.
The quantity of waste diverted is
not currently measured by the
City’s implementation partner.
Cap the landfill
Cap the last phase of the landfill
(Phase IIC) that will reduce
fugitive landfill gas emissions.
The final landfill phase has been
capped as of December 31,
2015. All environmental
protection systems will be
completed in FY 2016.
Increase beneficial reuse of
landfill gas
Modify controls at the flare
station and incinerator
Better control and metering of
landfill gas to the incinerator
Data:
Annual Diversion Rate, 1995-2014
Historical City of Palo Alto Landfill GHG Emissions, 2005 (baseline) - 2015
Overall the trend in the City of Palo Alto GHG emissions is downward. Fluctuations in GHG emissions are
likely the result of closure activities. The closure activities include years of decreased waste acceptance
followed by a year of increased waste placement, expansion of the gas collection system and completion
of cover operations.
Forecast: Solid Waste Related GHG Emissions in metric tons (MT) carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2e)
for the Palo Alto Landfill.
Emissions Source 2016 Emissions 2017 Emissions 2018 Emissions
Palo Alto Landfill GHG emissions during the year 8,600 8,500 8,400
With the completion of the landfill cap and upgrades to the landfill gas collection system the City
expects the Palo Alto Landfill GHG emissions to continue to trend downwards over the next 30 years.
The rate of the drop in GHG emissions is difficult to estimate this early in the completion of the cap but
as time goes on the rate should be more predictable.
Trend: Solid Waste Related GHG Emissions in metric tons (MT) carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2e).
Emissions
Source
2005
Emissions1
(baseline)
2012
Emissions
2013
Emissions
2014
Emissions
2015
Emissions
(current)
Difference
(current-
baseline)
Percent
Difference
Palo Alto
Landfill
emissions
during the
year2
9,900 6,451 5,110 9,427 8,617 (1,283) -13%
Life cycle
fugitive
emissions3
7,953 5,030 5,197 5,389 5,005 (2,948) -37%
Landfilling
recyclable
materials3
22,779 14,406 14,886 15,435 14,335 (8,444) -37%
12005 GHG Emissions are baseline calculations.
2Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) Title 40, Part 98, Subpart HH model used to calculate greenhouse gas emissions produced by
Palo Alto Landfill.
3EPA WARM model using CalRecycle landfill data used to calculate greenhouse gas emissions produced by handling and disposal
of City generated solid waste and includes the capture of recyclables at the Sunnyvale Material Recovery and Transfer Station.
Challenges:
The Regional Water Quality Control Plant incinerator beneficially reuses some of the landfill gas.
The system is still being optimized to increase the amount of landfill gas the plant can use.
Product design and packaging development is largely outside of the City’s control. The City has
implemented a number of internal programs to reduce packaging and waste including the
banning polystyrene packaging for City purchases.
The audience with the most control over waste sorting--janitorial and custodial staff--is very
difficult to reach, train, and keep informed of new programs. To address this audience, Staff,
along with Spanish-language support from the City’s contract trash hauler GreenWaste of Palo
Alto, conducts regular trainings for employees of City facilities.
In keeping with a City-wide “we go first” strategy, the municipal diversion rate should be equal
or higher to the residential and commercial waste streams. Staff is providing training and
improved signage to City departments, and has begun internal benchmarking to build awareness
and engagement.
Department Name: Office of Sustainability, City Manager’s Office
Background: The Office of Sustainability (OOS), established in December 2013, works with other City
departments to develop and implement a world class sustainability strategy for Palo Alto that improves
quality of life, grows prosperity and builds resilience, while protecting and improving the living systems
that sustain us—and leads Palo Alto to recognized as one of the greenest cities in America.
Strategy: In the Office of Sustainability’s (OOS) second full year of operation, our priorities are to
develop a world class sustainability and climate action plan (S/CAP), integrating the community’s
highest aspirations and the many initiatives across city departments into coordinated one plan; further
embed the City’s sustainability commitments into City operations; and develop a city/community wide
sustainability performance dashboard, to streamline and improve access to sustainability performance
data through the year.
In parallel OOS focused on collaboration and community engagement/input. OOS collaborated with
other cities, non-profits, and foundations, bringing resources in to raise awareness and build our
capacity to deliver projects focusing on reducing emissions in the two most impactful sectors:
transportation and buildings.
Goals:
develop a world class sustainability and climate action plan (S/CAP), integrating the
community’s highest aspirations and the many initiatives across city departments into
coordinated one plan;
Integrate sustainability programs and practices into City operations & Community
actions, including management systems, procurement, finance and training.
develop a city/community wide sustainability performance dashboard, to streamline
and improve access to sustainability performance data through the year. Foster
experimentation, alliances & big leaps, such as electrification, “mobility as a service,”
“Zero Net” and “Net Positive” Energy building initiatives and smart city.
Initiatives and Activities:
To further these goals, OOS proposes, supports and adds capacity to the sustainability initiatives that
other departments are focused on. Here we highlight a few of them.
Sustainability and Climate Action Plan (S/CAP): Working with a world-class consulting team (from DNV-
GL and Rocky Mountain Institute) and key city staff, OOS developed a draft sustainability and climate
action plan the City’s first since 2007), that will once again put Palo Alto in the forefront of sustainability
strategy. OOS held a community climate summit (January 2016), including 300 diverse stakeholders
from our community, as well as Council and staff, who explored key elements of the 80% by 2030 plan,
including roadmaps, strategies and actions in the areas of transportation, energy, and water
Sustainability dashboard: OOS is implementing a sustainability performance dashboard to collect
accurate data on key sustainability performance metrics across departments, produce timely reports for
management and the public, and provide a fact-based foundation for bold strategic thinking. This
platform is designed to reduce staff time on these tasks, improve transparency and auditability, and give
Council and city managers actionable and timely data to optimize their activity, inform decisions, and
drive performance. The dashboard launch was delayed by unexpected data privacy concerns and
unexpected staff attrition, but dashboard now has Utility data loaded, and other data will be loaded this
spring.
Mobility as a Service (MaaS): OSS has acted as the “sparkplug” for regional MaaS initiatives, in
additional to advancing MaaS discussions within the City. The City Manager hosted the first regional
MaaS conversation in City Hall in February, including a delegation from the Finland Ministry of
Transportation and Communications (with which we have since signed a Letter of Intent, along with
Joint Venture Silicon Valley (JVSV), to collaboration on MaaS development). JVSV has hosted ongoing
quarterly convenings, with expanding regional interest.
OSS has advanced various MaaS concepts, including responsive shuttle services, paid parking and
parking “cash out” with staff, the TMA, the Comprehensive Plan CAC and community groups. OSS has
worked with the Planning Department’s transportation group to design MaaS pilots and analysis,
including the Shared Use Mobility Center toolkit (interactive map and policy database), Ridescout and
VTA employee commuter benefits improvement pilot (app to integrate transit use with commuter
benefits), the Commuter Wallet RFP, and a new ride share service called Scoop. In addition OSS held
three regional MaaS convenings driving a region-wide strategy with JVSV to transform transportation.
Net Zero Energy: OSS collaborated with the Development Services Department (DSD) to convene a
multi-city peer exchange on developing a Zero Net Energy (ZNE) policy, learning from best practices,
barriers and opportunities from other cities (including Austin, Cambridge and San Jose). This work was
supported by grant from the Urban Sustainability Directors Network’s Innovation fund to assist the city
in developing California’s first Zero Net Energy Policy ahead of the State’s adoption cycle. In 2016 the
City was invited to New York to collaborate with 13 other leading cities to help drive efficiency and
reduce carbon emission from buildings. This seminal work is driving the conversation forward. In
collaboration with DSD and other city stakeholders they are proposing an Energy Reach Code in May
that leverages this work and attempts to codify greater efficiency in new and retrofitted buildings to
inch closer to ZNE.
Electrification: OOS is participating in multi-departmental staff efforts, in response to Council’s August
2015 directive, to assess options and develop plans for a citywide electrification strategy. Utilities will
launch the first pilot in early 2016: a heat pump electric water heater rebate program. DSD is studying
the cost effectiveness and any barriers to entry for Heat Pump technology to encourage greater
penetration into existing and new buildings. They are also studying whole house Electrification from a
building code perspective.
Electrifying Transportation: Building on Palo Alto’s 2014 Electric Vehicle (EV) readiness ordinance
developed by DSD, OOS won a $53,000 grant from California Energy Commission to do and education
(outreach to 50 local businesses and two EV “ride and drive events) on the benefits of installing EV Fast
Chargers.
OOS also worked with Public Works and BAYCap to secure a $57,500 grant from Bay Area Air Quality
Management District to add five new Electric Vehicle Charging Stations (8 ports) to be installed at City
Hall – 250 Hamilton Ave; Cowper/Webster parking garage – 520 Webster Street; Cambridge parking
garage – 400 Cambridge Ave. (two at this location); Ted Thompson parking garage – 275 Cambridge Ave.
(Additional grants for additional charges are pending.) OOS is working with Fleet to implement the City’s
new EV first policy, and with Public Works and Utilities to review and potentially revise Palo Alto’s
policies with regard to pricing for use of EV chargers on City facilities.
Compact of Mayors: OOS worked with Mayor Holman to sign Palo Alto onto the global Compact of
Mayors--a global cooperative effort among mayors and city officials committed to reducing local
greenhouse gas emissions, enhancing resilience to climate change, and tracking progress transparently.
The Compact establishes a common platform to capture the impact of cities’ collective actions through
standardized measurement of emissions and climate risk, and consistent, public reporting of their
efforts.
Neighborhood Engagement Pilot: OOS worked with the not-for-profit Empowerment Institute to
establish an MOU for the “Cool Blocks” program and develop an initial 10 block pilot of the program.
Cool Blocks organizes and trains teams of neighbors, organized by blocks, to select and implement
sustainability and resilience actions to reduce household carbon footprints, and create more connected
and resilient community.
Finance Scan and Convening: Supported by a grant from Urban Sustainability Directors Network
(USDN.org) OOS led a multi-city collaboration exploring how to more effectively fund municipal
sustainability initiatives, including a convening bringing together CSOs, CFOs, and Investors to bridge the
sustainability targets and financing gap. (Launched early 2016)
Fundraising: OOS has raised $350,000 in grant funding for City sustainability initiatives, including County
Alternative Mobility planning; EV education, outreach and charging stations; Multi-City ZNE peer
exchange; Sustainability Finance Scan.
Challenges:
OOS is a very small office with a very large mission, and is challenged to fulfill even a part of that mission
without permanent staff. OOS relies on coordination with other departments whose resources are also
limited and not always available for collaborative activities; we’re working to design more effective ways
to coordinate sustainability activities across departments. Synchronizing the different times lines and
processes of the S/CAP and CompPlan processes has been challenging. The emerging nature of OOS’s
work requires timely responsiveness (for example in relation to funding and collaboration opportunities
and invitations to participate in multi-city platforms and positions) that the City is not always able to
provide.
Department: City of Palo Alto Utilities (CPAU)
Background: The mission of CPAU is to earn a high level of customer satisfaction by providing cost
competitive, safe, reliable and environmentally sustainable utility services.
Strategy:
Continue to implement cost effective energy efficiency and water conservation programs
Implement Local Solar Plan with objective of providing 4% of the community’s electrical energy
needs from local solar resources by 2023
Maintain the City’s 100% carbon neutral electric supply
Facilitate adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) in Palo Alto by providing time of use (TOU) electric
rate option to residential customers and by optimally utilizing Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS)
revenue for the benefit of EV owners in Palo Alto
Analyze and implement cost-effective electrification (natural gas-to-electric fuel switching)
programs
Concerted effort in CY 2015 and 2016 to engage residential customers to reduce energy use to
compete in the Georgetown University Energy Prize
Encourage participation in the PaloAltoGreen Gas program to offset the carbon emissions
associated with natural gas use
Seek and test emerging technologies that have the potential to enable CPAU to provide more
effective utility services
Consistent with cost of service requirements, provide customer rates that encourage
electrification, including greater EV adoption and
Goals:
1. Reduce electric energy use by at least 4.8% by 20232 (no GHG impact since electric supply
portfolio is carbon neutral)
2. Reduce natural gas use by at least 2.85% by 2023 (4,500 metric tons per year of GHG reduction
by 2023)
3. Meet the State’s mandated drought-related water savings goals (see figure D-5 for actual
reductions). The compliance period is from June 1, 2015 through October 31, 2016.
4. Reduce long-term water use in order to comply with the State’s 20% by 2020 per capita water
use reduction requirement.
5. Generate at least 4% of electrical energy from local solar by 20233 (no GHG impact)
6. Achieve PaloAltoGreen Gas program participation of 20% of natural gas customers by 2020,
representing around 10% of the citywide gas usage (16,000 metric tons per year of GHG
reduction)
7. Continue to procure long-term renewable electric supplies to maintain carbon neutral electric
supplies (no GHG impact since electric supply portfolio carbon neutral)
2 For electric and gas 10-year energy efficiency goals, see:
http://www.cityofpaloalto.org/civicax/filebank/documents/32390
3 For Local Solar Plan, see: https://www.cityofpaloalto.org/civicax/filebank/documents/39981
Initiatives and Activities:
Top Sustainability Initiatives in 2015
Sustainability Initiative Objective Outcome
Electricity and Natural
Gas Efficiency and
Conservation Programs
Promote resource efficiency to
commercial and residential
customers for cost savings,
lowered consumption, and
avoided greenhouse gas
emissions.
See impact of energy efficiency programs
on utility loads in Figures D-2 and D-3. Due
to the relatively warm winter of 2015 and
water conservation, the natural gas usage
declined by close to 15% in 2015
Renewable Portfolio
Standard (RPS) eligible
electric supplies
Increase renewable energy in
CPAU’s electric portfolio
The City’s RPS was 20.6% in 2013, 23.3% in
2014, and 26.0% in 2015.
Executed contracts will result in RPS of
42.9% in 2016, and 57.5% in 2017.
Local Solar Program
Increase local solar generation
from 0.7% of total load to 4.0%
by 2023.
Solar group-buy discount program,
Peninsula SunShares, implemented in
2015, resulted in 236 kW of new local
solar. The first two Palo Alto CLEAN
program applications expected to result in
a total of 1.4 MW of new solar installed in
2016. New Community Solar and Solar
Donation programs are under design.
PaloAltoGreen Gas
Enroll 20% of all natural gas
customers in a voluntary carbon
offset program by 2020,
equivalent to 10% of total
natural gas usage4.
Participation was about 2% of citywide gas
usage in 2015 and is expected to double in
2016. The program is on track to reach the
goal of 10% of load participation by 2020.
Facilitate Electrification Facilitate electrification of
natural gas appliances and
adoption of electric vehicles
Pilot program to facilitate installation of
heat-pump water heaters to commence in
January 2016. EV count is Palo Alto about
1,200 at the end of 2015.
4 The City of Palo Alto facilities began participation in the PaloAltoGreen Gas program for 100% of their usage
starting in July 2015. That usage accounts for a vast majority of the program participation for 2015; the City-owned
facilities natural gas use, and corresponding participation in the program, will decline considerably when the
incinerator at the water quality control plant is retired in the 2017-18 timeline.
Resource Efficiency and Local Renewable Energy Programs
Resource
FY 2015
Savings Goals
(% of load)
FY 2015
Savings Achieved
(% of load)
FY 2015
Savings Achieved
Electricity 0.60% 0.77% 7,192 MWh
Gas 0.50% 1.20% 225,080 therms
Water 0.91% 1.54% 68,227 CCF
Customer-side
Renewable Program Goal FY 2015 Achievement
Cumulative
Achievement
Solar Electric (PV) 6,500 kW by 2017 814 kW 5,877 kW since 1999
Solar Water Heating 30 systems/year 15 systems 58 systems since 2008
For more details on individual efficiency and local renewable programs and achievements, please review
report linked below: http://www.cityofpaloalto.org/civicax/filebank/documents/14820
Data:
1. See impact of energy efficiency programs on utility loads in Figures D-2 and D-3.
2. See RPS increase since 2005 in Figure D-1.
Challenges:
1. Current building standards (Title 24) adopted by the California Energy Commission discourage
the adoption of electric water heating and space heating, despite the higher efficiency
performance of heat pump appliances. CPAU plans to engage with CEC as well as other
stakeholders to remove this bias.
2. For residential customers, switching from natural gas using appliances (for space heating,
water heating and cooking) to electric appliances requires a high upfront investment and is
not cost effective, especially if the home’s electrical panel needs to be upgraded and the
upgrade costs are applied to that single improvement .
3. Future State emergency water reduction regulations are unknown.
4. Hydroelectric power as well as potable water supplies could be at risk in potentially disruptive
climate change scenarios.
5. Disruptive innovation in local PV generation, distributed energy storage (including rolling
storage provided by growing EV fleets ) and net zero buildings may require re-examination of
CPAU business models.
6. Cost of service based retail rate making process required by State law may limit the options
available to encourage electrification through retail rate structures.
7. While CPAU is delivering efficiency gains generally ahead of targets, greater progress will be
needed to achieve California’s 80% by 2050 GHG reduction goals, or potentially more aggressive
S/CAP goals. “Low hanging fruit” efficiency have been achieved, so deeper gains may require
new approaches.
8. Electrification will increase electricity demand and reduce natural gas revenues introducing the
challenge of maintaining natural gas system integrity if natural gas use and revenues decline
dramatically in the coming decades.
Supplemental Graphs:
Figure D-1: Electricity Portfolio: 2005-2025 (Actuals and Projections)
Figure D-2: Impact of Energy Efficiency Programs on Electric Sales5
5 There are no GHG reductions from electric energy efficiency after 2013 since electric supplies are carbon neutral.
Figure D-3: Impact of Energy Efficiency on Gas Sales
Figure D-4: Residential Per Capita Utility Consumption Declining
Figure D-5: Progress in Meeting the State-mandated 24% Potable Water Use Reduction Target