HomeMy WebLinkAboutStaff Report 5322
City of Palo Alto (ID # 5322)
Finance Committee Staff Report
Report Type: Action Items Meeting Date: 12/16/2014
City of Palo Alto Page 1
Summary Title: Fiscal Years 2016 to 2025 General Fund Long Range Financial
Forecast
Title: Fiscal Years 2016 to 2025 General Fund Long Range Financial Forecast
From: City Manager
Lead Department: Administrative Services
Recommendation
Staff recommends that the Finance Committee accept the Fiscal Year 2016 to 2025 General
Fund Long Range Financial Forecast and forward the Forecast to the City Council for
acceptance.
Executive Summary
The Fiscal Year (FY) 2016 to 2025 General Fund Long Range Financial Forecast (LRFF), which
marks the beginning of the FY 2016 budget planning process, projects a slight General Fund
surplus of $0.5 million in FY 2016. Although economic indicators and rebounding tax revenues
reveal that the City of Palo Alto has reached a turning point from the Great Recession, this
Forecast reflects financial obligations and rising benefits costs that diminish the positive outlook
over the next 10 years.
Despite improving revenue receipts as projected forward, the City continues to face challenges
related to the funding of infrastructure, rising benefits costs, and unfunded long -term liabilities.
The Infrastructure Plan was recently approved by the City Council and contains $125.8 million in
projects recommended by the Infrastructure Committee. However, even with the voter
approved increase in the Transient Occupancy Tax, a funding gap of $7.5 million still exists and
the plan does not include any contingencies for potentially higher land acquisition and
construction costs. Starting with FY 2016, this Forecast assumes an additional transfer of $4.7
million annually for the estimated annual debt service cost as assumed in the Infrastructure
Plan. Since it is not anticipated that debt will be issued until FY 2016 , with the first debt service
due in FY 2017, the additional transfer of $4.7 million to the Capital Fund will be allocated to
address the Infrastructure Plan funding gap.
Since the Great Recession, the City Council has approved various strategies to reduce the costs
of salaries and benefits. These strategies include: (1) employees paying their own CalPERS
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contribution (between 6 percent to 9 percent of salary) except for the members of the Fire
Chiefs’ Association; (2) sharing the cost of health plan costs at 90/10; (3) creating a second
pension tier (and the state implemented a third tier effective January 1, 2013); (4) reducing
professional development expenses; (5) eliminating minimum staffing requirements and
associated overtime costs in Fire services; (6) cost of living freezes for four years; and (7)
terminating the Variable Management Compensation Plan. Continuing with previous actions to
curtail the growth of benefits costs, in 2014, as part of approving the agreement with SEIU and
the compensation plan for Management and Professional employees, the City Council approved
the cost sharing of future health plan costs. Because of the implementation of these various
strategies, the growth in salary and benefits cost are not outpacing the growth in revenue;
however, over the Forecast period, salary and benefit costs gradually increase in comparison to
the total expenditure budget. In FY 2016, salary and benefit costs represent 62 percent of the
expenditure budget; in FY 2025, the salary and benefit costs represent 65 percent of the
budget. During the same period, however, benefit costs as a percentage of total salary and
benefit costs increase from 49 percent in FY 2016 to 55 percent in FY 2025.
As reported in the first quarter financial report for FY 2015, as of early November 2014, 28
percent of non-safety (Miscellaneous) employees received Tier 2 (2 percent at 60) and Tier 3 (2
percent at 62) pension benefits and 14 percent of Safety employees received Tier 2 and Tier 3
pension benefits. However, the impact of employees hired during the last five years has had
little impact on unfunded pension plan liabilities. Per the latest CalPERS valuations for the
Miscellaneous (Attachment A) and Safety (Attachment B) employees, the combined unfunded
pension liability amounts to $295.5 million. Adding on the unfunded liability for the retiree
healthcare plan in the amount of $143.6 million, the total unfunded liability for all three plans is
$439.1 million. In comparison to the most recent valuations available for all three plans, th e
total unfunded liability has remained approximately the same at $439.7 million. Changes in the
actuarial assumptions and policies, which have increased total liabilities, have offset recent
substantive market gains.
This Forecast provides a long-term view of the City’s General Fund to provide a strategic focus
for addressing future funding needs in the FY 2016 Proposed Budget and beyond. This Forecast
assumes FY 2015 service level remain the same and includes funding for the City Council’s
approved enhancements to the Shuttle Service and funding for the Transportation
Management Authority. As in past years, the Forecast has been updated based on current
information compiled from various sources, in addition to utilizing available tools to project
revenues and expenditures. This document facilitates City Council members and staff’s
understanding of the long-term impacts of past decisions, and identifies issues that must be
addressed in the near and long-term, including the availability of funds. The Forecast is not a
prediction or a commitment of resources; rather, it is a reasonable snapshot of the City’s future
financial condition based on various assumptions and currently available data.
A continuously improving economic climate is noted by the majority of national, state, regional,
and local economic indicators. This Forecast assumes a continued, gradual growth of the
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national economy with positive impacts to the local economy, which is reflective in the
estimates of economically sensitive revenue estimates. It is important to note that consistent
with previous forecasts, the methodology for calculating changes for out -years of the Forecast
(FY 2017 to FY 2025) are based on a historical analysis of increases using the Compounded
Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) with adjustments factored in for known items. By using the
historical average growth rate that incorporates the up and down cycles over the past 10 or 20
years, there is no single year in which a downturn is depicted. Instead, past downturns (e.g.
dot.com bust and Great Recession) have been factored into the compound growth rate used to
forecast future revenue streams. Staff performed a reasonableness test of the results and
made appropriate changes to the CAGR analysis.
As shown in the table below, the FY 2016 Forecast Budget anticipates a General Fund surplus of
approximately $0.5 million for FY 2016, and surpluses in all out -years of the Forecast except
Fiscal Year 2017. During the forecast period, surpluses range between $0.5 million and $3.4
million with an approximate cumulative one-time surplus of $17.2 million. Assuming that the
General Fund Budget Stabilization Reserve (BSR) is fully funded at the City Council approved
target level of 18.5 percent of General Fund operating expenditures, $11 .6 million would have
to set aside to maintain the target level. With these funds set aside, the one -time resources
projected in this Forecast would decrease by $11.6 million from $17.2 million to $5.6 million.
Fiscal Year 2016-2025 Long Range Financial Forecast
Adopted
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Total Revenue $171,084 $179,637 $186,962 $194,498 $201,233 $208,304 $214,408 $221,070 $228,864 $236,926 $245,129
Total Expenditures $171,084 $179,155 $187,142 $193,437 $199,825 $205,896 $212,624 $219,358 $226,567 $234,032 $241,765
Net One-Time Surplus/(Shortfall)$0 $482 ($180)$1,061 $1,408 $2,408 $1,784 $1,712 $2,297 $2,894 $3,364
Cumulative Net Operating Margin (One-Time)$17,231
Net Operating Margin $0 ($180)$1,061 $347 $1,000 ($625)($72)$585 $597 $470
Cumulative Net Operating Margin $3,185
Assumes that the annual shortfalls are solved with ongoing solutions and annual surpluses are spent for ongoing expenditures.
The table includes a calculation for the net operating margin which reflects the year over year
change of surpluses and shortfalls. With the net operating margin, it is assumed that each
shortfall is addressed completely with ongoing solutions in the year it appears, and that each
surplus is completely expended with ongoing expenditures. Based on these assumptions, the
cumulative net operating margin, or ongoing surplus, during the forecast period is
approximately $3.2 million.
Although this Forecast presents a positive fiscal outlook for the City’s General Fund, it is
important to note that it does not include the following potential impacts, which can increase
or decrease the projected annual surpluses to the FY 2016 Projected Budget and the out-years
of the Forecast: (1) ongoing labor negotiations; (2) Cadillac Healthcare Federal Excise Tax; (3)
Foothills College Cubberley Lease; (4) potential acquisition of the downtown Palo Alto Post
Office; (5) potential termination of the Fire Services Contract with Stanford University; (6) radio
infrastructure investments with the Silicon Valley Regional Interoperability Authority; (7)
Remaining Infrastructure Plan approved projects and contingency for increased land acquisition
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and construction costs; (8) future changes to pension plan assumptions by CalPERS; (9)
Infrastructure Plan operating budget impacts; and (10) changes in the local, regional, and
national economy.
At this time, staff projects $4.3 million in excess revenues and expenditure saving s in the
General Fund for FY 2015. The FY 2015 projected surplus includes City Council approved budget
amendments to date and is driven by a $4.3 million, or 4.6 percent, increase in major tax
revenues from the Adopted Budget. This amount does not assume forthcoming
recommendations to adjust revenues and expenditures as part of the FY 2015 Midyear Budget
Review.
During the next few months, staff will continue to monitor revenues and expenditures based on
available information and include these updates in the FY 2016 Proposed Budget scheduled for
release late April/early May 2015.
Economic Outlook
In preparing the FY 2016 to 2025 General Fund Long Range Financial Forecast, key economic
indicators and measures available through various publications and reports were reviewed.
Overall, the economic outlook for 2016 calls for continued measured optimism even as global
economic conditions continue to produce uneven economic growth across regions and sectors.
Thinking Globally
Famed American mathematician and meteorologist Dr. Edward Lornez engineered the strange
attractor notion and coined the term, Butterfly Effect. According to Lorenz, on any given day a
butterfly can flap its wings in China and in New York you get rain instead of sunshine. In the
age of globalization, where the exotic and chaotic combine to produce 24 hour cable news
fodder, economic and political conditions in all corners of the world can have as much of an
impact on the local economy as similar factors here at home. As a world renowned hub of
technological innovation, and at the heart of the Silicon Valley, Palo Alto is connected to the
global economy in immeasurable ways. From Amazon® to Zimride®, the global innovation
economy helped drive global growth by 3 percent in 2013, and that mo mentum is expected to
continue through 2015 and beyond.i
According to the Silicon Valley Bank’s Innovation Economy Global Outlook (2014), “across
regions, 2 in 3 executives say their company met or beat 2013 revenue targets. UK executives
reported the strongest performance, with 77 percent saying they met or beat targets. US
executives came in second, with 65 percent, and other innovation economies came in strong
with 62 percent meeting or beating revenue targets.”ii Although the International Monetary
Fund (IMF) recently lowered 2014 global growth projections by 0.4 percent to 3.3 percent to
reflect a weak first quarter in the US and a less optimistic outlook for emerging markets,
stronger growth is expected in advanced economies next year. The IMFs global growth
projection for 2015 is 3.8 percent.iii
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The measured optimism expressed by the IMF is due, in part, to downside risks that include
geopolitical factors from Eastern Europe to the Middle East that may have a supply side impact
on global oil prices; however, the emerging shale oil boom in the US has been mitigating some
of these concerns. The softening of Eurozone economies, most notably Germany, has caused
concern that Europe’s leading economy is struggling with weakening demand for exports,
slowing growth in Asia, and the impacts of Russian trade sanctions. In the US, the Federal
Reserve has ended the central bank’s long-term bond buying program known as Quantitative
Easing which may have an impact on long-term interest rates that affect everything from
consumer credit cards to home mortgages while the Bank of Japan and the European Central
Bank have ramped up similar programs.
A National View
The beginning of 2014 was, as Shakespeare famously wrote in Richard III, “the winter of our
discontent.” In July 2014, the Bureau of Economic Analysis revised their Q1 2014 Gross
Domestic Product (GDP) contraction to -2.1 percent, relative to Q4 2013 when real GDP grew
by 2.6 percent, while posting a modest gain of 1.9 percent for all of 2013.iv Overall, Q1 2014
was the worst first quarter showing since Q1 2009, amidst the throws of the Great Recession.
Economists attributed the sharp decline in output and productivity to unusually cold weather in
much of the US in early 2014 that affected everything from auto sale s to home construction,
and became a significant drag on the economy. As bad as Q1 2014 was, Q2 2014 was, “made
glorious summer by this sun of York.” The output of goods and services in the US increased at a
robust annual rate of 4.6 percent in the second quarter of 2014, primarily driven by significant
increases in personal consumption expenditures, exports, private inventory investments, and
state and local government spending.v According to the UCLA Anderson Forecast, Q3 2014 GDP
growth is estimated at 3.5 percent and Q4 2014 growth is projected to be 2.9 percent. For
2015, GDP is projected to grow at annualized rate of 3.1 percent.vi The chart below provides a
quarterly view of GDP growth from 2009 to present.
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The UCLA Anderson Forecast cites several factors attributing to their favorable outlook for
2015. Leading the way is continued domestic job growth resulting in the precipitous decline of
the unemployment rate. As of September 2014, the national unemployment rate (U3) was 5.9
percent. The UCLA Anderson Forecast projects that by the end of 2016, the unemployment rate
(U3) will drop to 5.3 percent signaling that the economy is approaching full employment. The
following chart provides a multi-year view of the US unemployment rate. While a decrease in
the unemployment rate is very positive, it is important to note that the Federal Reserve’s highly
accommodative monetary policy may be driving job growth too far too fast. As the Dallas Fed
president recently noted in the Economic Letter, “Fed policymakers successfully ‘tapped the
breaks’ in the middle of three of our longest economic expansions (in the 1960s, 1980s, and
1990s), slowing—but not ending—the unemployment rate’s decline. By comparison, there are
no instances where the Fed has successfully eased the unemployment rate upward after having
overshot full employment: When the economy goes into reverse, it has a pronounced tendency
to lurch backward all the way into recession.”vii
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Other factors included in the UCLA Anderson Forecast that will drive growth in 2015 include
housing, non-residential construction, and investment in equipment and software. On the
housing front, despite the recovery being slower than anticipated, UCLA Anderson is
forecasting housing starts to rise from 1.025 million units in 2014 to 1.32 million units in 2015,
and 1.47 million units in 2016. According to the US Department of Housing and Urban
Development (HUD), privately-owned housing starts in September 2014 were at a seasonally
adjusted rate of 1.017 million, in line with the UCLA Anderson Forecast.viii However, according
to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), current market conditions weakened across all
property types in September 2014 compared to August 2014 at a time when the market
typically perks up. According to NAR, “confidence about the outlook for the next six months
also broadly weakened and is attributed to difficulties in obtaining a mortgage under tighter
underwriting standards and the decreased supply of ‘affordable’ homes.”ix Because of
continued investment in domestic energy production and a revival in commercial construction,
non-residential construction will start to rise rapidly in mid -2015. In 2016, investment in non-
residential construction is forecast to expand at a robust 8.2 percent. Persistent s trength in
equipment and software spending will continue to buoy the economy.x
Additional macroeconomic data suggests that inflation is on the rise which is good for the
broader economy, but is falling below the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) long-run
objective of 2 percent. According to the San Francisco Fed, “overall and core consumer prices,
as measured by the price index for Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), rose 1.5 percent
in August 2014 compared with a year earlier,” but is being driv en lower by falling commodity
prices, particularly those in the energy sector.xi Nevertheless, the FOMC is projecting PCE
inflation to increase by a range of 1.5 to 2.4 percent in 2015 and 1.6 to 2.1 percent in 2016.
Regarding interest rates, the FOMC has signaled that due to the improving labor market and
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rising inflation, the Fed will begin raising interest rates at its March 2015 FOMC meeting.
Thereafter, according to the UCLA Anderson Forecast, the Fed will continue to increase the
Federal Funds Rate to about 3 percent by the end of 2016.xii
California Dreaming
“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of
foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of
Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we
had everything before us, we had nothing before us,” wrote Charles Dickens in his acclaimed
tome A Tale of Two Cities. Much can be said about the state of California’s economy as well—
depending upon where you live. As a whole, California’s economy has out -performed the
nation in terms of job growth and production. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS),
California’s unemployment rate (U3) dropped from 9.0 percent in July 2013 to 7.4 percent in
July 2014, exceeding the UCLA Anderson Forecast (2013) by nearly a full percentage point (8.2
percent). California’s Gross State Product (GSP) grew at annualized rate of 2.0 percent in 2013 xiii
and is projected to grow by 2.1 percent for 2014. While the data suggests that a California
comeback is in the offing, the distribution of growth among the state’s regions remains uneven.
It is not by happenstance that the state’s two municipal bankruptcies, Stockton and San
Bernardino, are located in interior regions while California’s coastal communities are enjoying
an economic renaissance.
Although the economic outlook for California is generally positive, according to the UCLA
Anderson Forecast, even though the total number of jobs is now higher than ever before, the
state remains below its potential in output and employment. California’s personal income
growth, after adjusting for inflation, is expected to grow by 4.4 percent in 2015 and 4.6 percent
in 2016.xiv California’s new home permits, as shown in the following chart, continue to bounce
back from their 2009 recessionary lows, showing continued improvement in new home
construction, but are far below their pre-recession levels. For 2013, new residential permits
were roughly equal to 1995 levels. According to the Zillow Home Value Index, “the median
home value in California is $430,700. California home values have gone up 11.5 percent over
the past year (August 2013 to August 2014) and Zillow predicts they will rise 5.8 perc ent within
the next year. The median price of homes currently listed in California is $424,900 while the
median price of homes sold is $409,550. The median rent price in California is $1,895.”xv
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Looking forward, while there are many facets of California’s economy that are encouraging, it is
important to be cognizant of downside risks to California’s economy. The UCLA Anderson
Forecast cites a host of new labor, healthcare, and environmental related policies that could
become a drag on the state’s growth. In addition, the housing market, although showing
strength, has been slow to take-off despite rising occupancy and rental rates, and is largely
attributable to the lack of housing supply as previously mentioned. According to the UCLA
Anderson Forecast, “though these risks exist, the fundamentals of California [and the United
States] suggest that the most likely evolution of California’s economy is one of more of the
same—slow, steady, and unexceptional growth.”xvi
Palo Alto Possible
In 2010, the Knight Foundation, an organization dedicated to supporting transformational ideas
that promote quality journalism, advance media innovation, engage communities, and foster
the arts, teamed up with the Gallup polling to survey 43,000 people in 26 cities to find out two
very important questions: what makes a community a desirable place to live and what draws
people to stake their future in it?xvii “The study found that the most important factors that
create emotional bonds between people and their community were not jobs and the economy,
but rather ‘physical beauty, opportunities for socializing, and a city’s openness to all people”
that made the difference.xviii While many of Palo Alto’s traditional economic indicators of
growth and prosperity—which are highlighted below—continue to shine, the future for our City
should also take into consideration those factors that provide Palo Alto residents, businesses,
and visitors with a community of enduring value. To that end, the outlook for Palo Alto is
exceptional.
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This year, the City launched Our Palo Alto, a comprehensive outreach effort that is designed to
build civic capacity and community engagement. It is organized into three main areas:
Ideas: creating opportunities for community conversations beyond City Hall in new and
creative ways.
Action: continuing work on important issues that impact the community such as traffic
and parking.
Design: the update of our Comprehensive Plan, the land use blueprint for the City.
The outcome of Our Palo Alto is intended to have a long lasting impact by generating civic
conversations across our community, in neighborhoods, businesses, community centers, and
schools. Our hope is that these conversations will bring people together, to deepen
understanding, and to expand the voices that actively participate in our community life and
shape the civic decisions of the City.
In a more traditional sense, most economic indicators point to an improving business
environment in Palo Alto. The unemployment rate (U3) in Palo Alto ticked up slightly in July
2014 to 3.1 percent, up from 2.8 percent in June 2014, but down from the July 2013 rate of 3.8
percent and the recessionary high of 6.3 percent in July 2009.xix According to the California
Board of Equalization (BOE), total taxable retail and fo od service sales in Palo Alto totaled $1.47
billion in 2012, surpassing the pre-recession high of $1.28 billion in 2006.xx Adjusted for
inflation, the 2006 figure totals approximately $1.462 billion in 2012 dollars which is slightly
lower than BOEs total for that year suggesting that Palo Alto retail and service sales
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outperformed expectations, albeit slightly. Finally, home values in Palo Alto continue to reach
new highs. According to the Zillow Home Value Index, “the median home value in Palo Alto is
$2.02 million. Palo Alto home values have gone up 12.1 percent over the past year (August
2013 to August 2014) and Zillow predicts they will rise 5.9 percent within the next year. The
median rent price in Palo Alto is $3,671 which is higher than the San Jose Metro median of
$2,750.”xxi
Fiscal Year 2016-2025 General Fund Long Range Financial Forecast
The FY 2016-2025 General Fund LRFF projects a General Fund surplus of $0.5 million for FY
2016. During this forecast period, the operating margin (shortfalls and surpluses) ranges
between -$0.2 million in FY 2017 and $3.4 million in FY 2025 with an approximate cumulative
one-time net surplus of $15.9 million (see table below).
In accordance with City Council policy, the General Fund Budget Stabilization Reserve (BSR) is
maintained at the range of 15 to 20 percent of General Fund operating expenditures, with a
target of 18.5 percent. Based on the 18.5 percent target, the BSR would have to increase from
$33.1 million in FY 2016 to $44.7 million in FY 2025. Over the Forecast period, $11.6 million
would have to be set aside to achieve the 18.5 percent BSR target by FY 2025, reducing the net
one-time resources projected in this Forecast from $17.2 million to $5.6 million.
The operating margin reflects the variance bet ween the projected General Fund revenues and
expenditures for each year of the forecast or the annual surplus or deficit. With the operating
margin, the year over year change in surpluses and deficits, it is assumed that each shortfall is
addressed completely with ongoing solutions in the year it appears and that each surplus is
completely expended with ongoing expenditures. During the Forecast period, the net
operating margin fluctuates between negative $0.2 million and positive $1.1 million. Although
this Forecast projects healthy revenue growth, the revenue growth is barely keeping pace with
the projected expenditure growth. Further, the City Council approved Infrastructure Plan is not
yet fully funded and does not contain any contingency for higher l and acquisition or
construction costs; and based on the latest valuation reports, the City’s pension and retiree
healthcare trust funds have a combined unfunded liability in the amount of $439.1 million.
Fiscal Year 2016-2025 Base Long Range Financial Forecast
Adopted
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Total Revenue $171,084 $179,637 $186,962 $194,498 $201,233 $208,304 $214,408 $221,070 $228,864 $236,926 $245,129
Total Expenditures $171,084 $179,155 $187,142 $193,437 $199,825 $205,896 $212,624 $219,358 $226,567 $234,032 $241,765
Net One-Time Surplus/(Shortfall)$0 $482 ($180)$1,061 $1,408 $2,408 $1,784 $1,712 $2,297 $2,894 $3,364
Cumulative Net Operating Margin (One-Time)$17,231
Net Operating Margin $0 ($180)$1,061 $347 $1,000 ($625)($72)$585 $597 $470
Cumulative Net Operating Margin $3,185
Assumes that the annual shortfalls are solved with ongoing solutions and annual surpluses are spent for ongoing expenditures.
The graph below provides a representation of the operating and net operating margin of the
base model as described above.
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It should be noted that this Forecast, as outlined in the following sections of this report, does
not include the following potential impacts to the FY 2016 Projected Budget and the out -years
of the Forecast:
(1) Labor negotiations: The City is currently in negotiations with the Palo Alto Police Officers
Association (PAPOA) and the International Fire Fighters Association (IAFF). Any agreements
reached between the City’s bargaining units and the City will be incorporated into future
budgets and forecasts, as applicable.
(2) Cadillac Healthcare Federal Excise Tax: Beginning 2018, a 40 percent excise tax will be
imposed on the value of health insurance benefits that exceed a certain threshold. It is
expected that this tax will be included in the cost of the health care premiums. CalPERS
plans to design healthcare premiums to stay below the threshold and discussions are in the
preliminary stage.
(3) Foothill College Cubberley Lease: In November 2014, the City Council authorized extension
of the lease between the City and the Palo Alto Unified School District (PAUSD) at the
Cubberley Community Center site for an additional five years and t o update the financial
terms to eliminate the Covenant Not to Develop (approximately $1.9 million annually) and
reallocate these funds to the capital investment of the Center’s aging infrastructure. Foothill
College represents a significant portion of the current tenant lease income (approximately
$1.0 million annually) of the site and the College is planning to move operations currently
housed at Cubberley to a new Sunnyvale campus. Although the forecast assumes the
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investment in the Center’s infrastructure, the Forecast does not assume lost revenue from
Foothill College relocating to a new campus. Per the lease agreement with the school
district, any loss in lease revenue from Foothill College will be equally shared between the
City and PAUSD.
(4) Acquisition of the downtown Palo Alto Post Office: The City may acquire the downtown Palo
Alto Post Office with the plan to relocate staff from leased facilities. The acquisition would
be financed through issuance of debt with the annual debt service paid through le ase cost
savings. If the Palo Alto Post Office is acquired, it would require substantial improvements
while the City pays the annual debt service, and during that time the City will also have to
continue paying for leasing existing facilities. Staff is r eviewing potential strategies, which
would reduce the impact to the General Fund in the short-term.
(5) Fire Services Contract with Stanford University: The term of the fire response service
contract between the City and Stanford is through September 30, 202 6; however, at
Stanford’s request, the two parties have been in negotiations over the past two years to
restructure the contract. On October 8, 2013, the City received a Notice of Termination
letter from Stanford with the intent to terminate the contract w ith the City no sooner than
one year and no later than two years from the date of the notice. In order to plan for a
possible termination of services, the City requested that Stanford inform the City of the final
termination date at least three months in advance to allow for a structured potential
reduction in force in the City's Fire Department. On November 20, 2013, Stanford issued a
Request for Proposal (RFP) for Delivery of Fire Department Services for the campus, which
the City responded to by the submission deadline of January 31, 2014. This Forecast
assumes the continuation of the contract, because staff believes that the City of Palo Alto is
best suited to provide Fire Protection Services to Stanford. For FY 2016 the City is budgeted
to receive approximately $8.4 million in revenue from Stanford for fire response services
and emergency dispatch services.
(6) Radio Infrastructure Investment with the Silicon Valley Regional Interoperability Authority
(SVRIA): The SVRIA oversees a number of initiatives to enhance radio and data
interoperability in Santa Clara County and the South Bay Region, and the most ambitious
project is the build-out of the Silicon Valley Regional Communications System (SVRCS) at an
estimated cost of $35.5 million. It is envisioned that both public safety and local
government users such as Public Works, City Utilities, and Park Rangers will migrate to this
700 MHz trunked radio system. In addition to a portion of the infrastructure costs, each
participating agency will be responsible for the purchase of portable and mobile radios to
replace their legacy UHF and VHF radios. If the City chooses to participate in the SVRCS
project, the City’s total proportional infrastructure costs are estimated to be $2.5 million, of
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which $1.65 million would be paid by the General Fund and the remainder by several
enterprise funds. The radio replacement costs are estimated to be $1.1 million, of which
$837,500 would be paid by the General Fund and the remainder by several enterprise
funds. The total implementation cost to the General Fund would be $2.5 million, and the
remaining $1.1 million would be paid by several Utilities and Public Works enterprise funds.
Participation in this county-wide investment will be evaluated as part of future budget
processes.
(7) In June 2014, the Infrastructure Plan was approved by the City Council and contains $125.8
million in projects recommended by the Infrastructure Committee. However, even with the
voter approved increase in the Transient Occupancy Tax, a funding g ap of $7.5 million still
exists and the plan does not include any contingencies for potentially higher land
acquisition and construction costs. Starting with FY 2016, this Forecast assumes an
additional transfer of $4.7 million annually for the estimated annual debt service cost as
assumed in the Infrastructure Plan. Since it is not anticipated that debt will be issued until
FY 2016 with the first debt service due in FY 2017, the additional transfer of $4.7 million to
the Capital Fund will be allocated to address the Infrastructure Plan funding gap.
(8) During the last two years, the CalPERS Board approved actuarial mortality assumptions
changes and lowered the assumed interest earnings assumption from 7.75% to 7.5%. This
Forecast does not include additional future changes to pension plan assumptions by
CalPERS. However, the Forecast does include continuous incremental pension cost
increases for the Forecast period.
(9) Infrastructure Plan operating budget impacts: In June 2014, the City Council approved the
Infrastructure Project Funding Proposal which includes $125.8 million in projects
recommended by the Infrastructure Committee. This Forecast does not assume ongoing
operating impacts as a result of the Infrastructure Plan. Future forecasts will include
operating cost impacts as the specific projects are designed.
(10) Changes in the local, regional, and national economy: This Forecast assumes a steadily
growing local economy. Any changes may have positive or negative impacts on
economically sensitive revenues such as Sales Tax and the Transient Occupancy Tax.
At this time, staff projects a $4.3 million General Fund budget surplus for FY 2015. This surplus
assumes City Council authorized budget amendments to date and includes higher revenue
estimates based on actual receipts in FY 2015 totaling $4.3 million, or a 4.7 percent increase
over the Adopted Budget. This amount does not assume forthcoming recommendations to
adjust revenues and does not include expenditure increase s that may be recommended as part
of the FY 2015 Midyear Budget Review.
City of Palo Alto Page 15
Compared to FY 2015 Projected Budget, in FY 2016, the upward revenue trend continues with a
$3.0 million, or 3.1 percent, tax revenue increase. This revenue increase, together with a $1.0
million contribution from the Golf Course Operating Loss Reserve, significantly offsets the $3.9
million, or 3.6 percent, increase in salary and benefits. Please note that the City Council
established the Golf Course Operating Loss Reserve in the amount of $0.6 million in August
2014. As part of the FY 2015 Midyear Budget Review, staff will bring forward a
recommendation to increase the reserve amount by approximately $0.4 million to $1.0 million.
It is anticipated that the one-time FY 2016 decrease in revenues due to the Golf Course closure
is $1.0 million.
A $0.2 million budget shortfall is expected in FY 2017. This shortfall is driven by lower estimates
for Utilities Users’ Tax as explained in the revenue section of this report and a net $1.2 million
increase in operating costs due to the reopening of the Golf Course.
The next section of the report discusses the analysis and assumptions of major revenue and
expenditure categories. Consistent with the 2015-2024 LRFF, the methodology for calculating
changes for out-years of the Forecast (FY 2017 to FY 2025) are based on a historical analysis of
increases using the Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) with adjustments factored in for
known items. Staff performed a reasonableness test of the results.
Revenues
City of Palo Alto tax revenues turned in another solid performance in FY 2014. This trend is
expected to continue into FY 2015 and FY 2016. The fundamental economic drivers of low
unemployment, robust business activity, demand for residential and commercial property, and
strong incomes in the Silicon Valley region are propelling tax receipts upward.
Fiscal Year 2016-2025 Long Range Revenue Forecast
Revenue
Adopted
2015
Projected
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Sales Taxes $25,957 $29,238 $27,454 $28,333 $29,245 $30,199 $31,201 $32,250 $33,256 $34,280 $35,308 $36,332
Property Taxes 31,927 32,556 34,343 36,270 38,313 40,479 42,783 45,149 47,577 50,051 52,614 55,245
Transient Occupancy Tax 14,156 15,901 17,640 18,526 19,505 20,136 20,799 21,464 22,166 22,921 23,710 24,471
Documentary Transfer Tax 7,514 6,500 6,852 7,233 7,657 8,104 8,583 9,192 9,848 10,568 11,351 12,151
Utility Users Tax 11,285 10,895 11,805 12,054 12,503 12,926 13,343 13,666 14,034 14,416 14,812 15,229
Other Taxes and Fines 2,164 2,164 2,165 2,222 2,279 2,339 2,399 2,462 2,526 2,591 2,659 2,728
Subtotal: Taxes 93,003 97,254 100,259 104,638 109,502 114,183 119,108 124,183 129,407 134,827 140,454 146,156
Charges for Services 14,814 15,931 15,356 17,793 18,957 19,462 19,978 20,507 21,042 21,590 22,153 22,730
Stanford Fire & Dispatch Services 8,199 8,199 8,402 8,621 8,845 9,075 9,311 9,553 9,801 10,056 10,318 10,586
Permits and Licenses 7,804 7,738 8,005 8,213 8,427 8,646 8,871 9,101 9,338 9,581 9,830 10,085
Return on Investments 685 877 894 912 931 952 973 996 1,020 1,049 1,081 1,115
Rental Income 14,254 14,230 14,288 14,528 14,746 14,972 15,242 14,348 13,819 14,169 14,528 14,896
From Other Agencies 453 453 333 337 341 345 349 354 358 363 367 372
Charges to Other Funds 10,647 10,647 10,997 11,282 11,575 11,876 12,184 12,500 12,824 13,157 13,498 13,849
Other Revenue 1,060 1,289 1,508 1,562 1,602 1,643 1,686 1,729 1,774 1,820 1,867 1,916
Total Non-Tax Revenue 57,916 59,364 59,783 63,248 65,424 66,971 68,594 69,088 69,976 71,785 73,642 75,549
Operating Transfers-In 18,433 18,528 18,592 19,076 19,572 20,080 20,602 21,138 21,688 22,252 22,830 23,424
BSR Contribution (One-Time)1,732 1,732
Golf Operating Loss Reserve Liquidation 1,004
Total Source of Funds $171,084 $176,878 $179,638 $186,961 $194,498 $201,234 $208,305 $214,409 $221,070 $228,864 $236,926 $245,129
City of Palo Alto Page 16
Revenue
Adopted
2015
Projected
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Sales Taxes -11.8%12.6%-6.1%3.2%3.2%3.3%3.3%3.4%3.1%3.1%3.0%2.9%
Property Taxes 4.4%2.0%5.5%5.6%5.6%5.7%5.7%5.5%5.4%5.2%5.1%5.0%
Transient Occupancy Tax 15.5%12.3%10.9%5.0%5.3%3.2%3.3%3.2%3.3%3.4%3.4%3.2%
Documentary Transfer Tax -7.7%-13.5%5.4%5.6%5.9%5.8%5.9%7.1%7.1%7.3%7.4%7.0%
Utility Users Tax 2.5%-3.5%8.4%2.1%3.7%3.4%3.2%2.4%2.7%2.7%2.7%2.8%
Other Taxes and Fines 1.4%0.0%0.1%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%
Subtotal: Taxes -0.6%4.6%3.1%4.4%4.6%4.3%4.3%4.3%4.2%4.2%4.2%4.1%
Charges for Services -10.9%7.5%-3.6%15.9%6.5%2.7%2.7%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%
Stanford Fire & Dispatch Services 11.4%0.0%2.5%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%
Permits and Licenses 13.4%-0.8%3.5%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%
Return on Investments -44.1%28.0%1.9%2.0%2.1%2.3%2.2%2.4%2.4%2.8%3.1%3.1%
Rental Income 1.2%-0.2%0.4%1.7%1.5%1.5%1.8%-5.9%-3.7%2.5%2.5%2.5%
From Other Agencies -50.8%0.0%-26.6%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.3%1.3%1.3%1.3%1.3%1.3%
Charges to Other Funds -3.3%0.0%3.3%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%
Other Revenue -11.1%21.6%17.0%3.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%
Total Non-Tax Revenue -2.3%2.5%0.7%5.8%3.4%2.4%2.4%0.7%1.3%2.6%2.6%2.6%
Operating Transfers-In -7.5%0.5%0.3%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%
BSR Contribution (One-Time)0.0%-100.0%
Golf Operating Loss Reserve Liquidation -100.0%
Total Source of Funds -1.0%3.4%1.6%4.1%4.0%3.5%3.5%2.9%3.1%3.5%3.5%3.5%
The tables above highlight the annual revenue estimates and year over year increases for this
Forecast. Compared to FY 2015 projected, FY 2016 revenues are estimated to increase by $2.8
million, or approximately 1.6 percent. This includes $1.0 million in one -time sources set aside
in FY 2015 for the Golf Course Operating Loss Reserve. Excluding one-time sources, ongoing
revenues in FY 2016 are estimated to increase by $3.5 million, or 2.0 percent, from FY 2015
yearend projections. Based on the economic analysis presented in the previous section of this
report, revenue estimates, which are primarily linked to the performance of th e regional and
local economy, are reflective of increased consumer spending, continued rise in home prices,
and the opening of hotels. The upward trend of the City’s tax revenues is expected to continue
over the next 10 years. These tax revenues have significantly improved since the beginning of
the Great Recession. The table above illustrates the steady growth projected for the General
Fund’s revenue streams, by percentage, from FY 2016 through FY 2025.
During the 2013 Finance Committee discussions, it was recommended that staff consider use of
a historical annual growth rate derived for each tax revenue source to project future revenue
streams. This methodology was used in the final forecast presented for FY 2015 to 2024 and
has been used in this forecast as well. The Compound Annual Growth Rates (CAGR) utilized in
this Forecast is cited in each revenue section.
It is worth noting that in past forecasts a recession and falloff in economically sensitive
revenues was assumed once every nine years. While it is not staffs’ intent to predict the exact
timing of the recession, its inclusion in the forecast is to send a signal that a cyclical event,
whereby revenues can drop dramatically, will inevitably occur. By using the historical average
growth rate that incorporates the up and down cycles over the past 10 or 20 years, there is no
single year in which a downturn is depicted. Instead, past downturns (e.g. dot -com bust and
Great Recession) are factored into the compound growth rate used to forecast futu re revenue
streams.
City of Palo Alto Page 17
The graph above depicts a historical and projected view of the five major General Fund tax
revenues. It includes 10 years of actual revenue history; the projections for the remainder of FY
2015 based on actual data available for the first five months of the fiscal year; as well as the
projections for FY 2016 and the subsequent years of the Forecast, based on current available
data and application of the CAGR methodology. The following section is a detailed discussion
of General Fund Tax revenue and other major revenue sources by category.
Sales Tax
Sales taxes have rebounded from a low of $17.9 million in FY 2010 to a new high of $29.4
million in FY 2014. Results in FY 2014 are a consequence of one-time, exceptional receipts from
a single vendor. The FY 2015 projected figure is due to a planned adjustment of the sales tax
accrual period, which was discussed with the Finance Committee as part of the approval of the
FY 2014 Comprehensive Annual Financial Report. The FY 2016 projection then returns the
General Fund to a more representative level.
T ABLE 1 : SALES T AX REVENUE BY FISCAL YEAR (MILLIONS)
Fiscal Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 20151 20162
Revenue $20.6 $22.0 $25.6 $29.4 $29.2 $27.5
1 Projections based on fiscal year-to-date results, expected growth, and potential risks.
2 Revenues are expected to drop in Fiscal Year 2016 as a consequence of one-time receipts and accrual changes
(per an outside audit recommendation) in Fiscal Year 2015.
City of Palo Alto Page 18
Sales tax revenue is showing continued positive growth. Restaurant and electronic sales are
trending higher and auto sales in key, older dealerships are rising. It’s important to note that
the State has terminated its “triple flip” program so the City will receive more timely payments
of its sales tax receipts. This primarily affects cash flow, but will result in slightly better interest
earnings for the General Fund.
While overall sales tax revenue growth is continuing a positive trend from recessionary lows,
there are some potential risks that could affect the current trend. First, the breakup of Hewlett
Packard (HP) into two companies could potentially eliminate tax generating segments of HP’s
business. The split is expected to occur next year and it is important to note that HP has been
one of the City’s top ten sales tax producers. Recent news also indicates that Internet retail
sales are anticipated to increase by over 15 percent (over prior year) during the critical holiday
sales season. This trend will continue to exert downward pressure on sales tax growth, a key
source that constitutes approximately 15 percent of General Fund revenue.
The CAGR applied to the period FY 2016 through FY 2025 is 2.8 percent which is in line with
historical growth rates.
Property Tax
Since the end of the Great Recession, property values and revenues have risen at a strong rate.
Beginning in FY 2013, receipts have risen by a robust $2.0 million each year. Contributing
factors to this exceptional rise in property tax revenue include: single family home sales that
have exceeded asking prices; a healthy commercial property market; and the unleashing of
latent property values from the sale of long held homes that were “shielded” from assessed
value appreciation by Proposition 13.
The following chart is taken from a realtor (Alain Pinel) web site. It depicts the astonishing
takeoff in median Palo Alto home prices since Calendar Year 2011.
City of Palo Alto Page 19
The City’s property tax estimate for FY 2015 is based on information received from quarter ly
meetings with the Santa Clara County Assessor’s Office. The estimate includes appeals on
record with the Assessor’s Office, additions to the roll, and movements in assessed values.
Projections beyond FY 2015 are based on historical growth rates. The CAGR used in this 10 year
forecast equals 5.4 percent.
As requested by the City Council, staff coordinates with the Palo Alto Unified School District
(PAUSD) for their assumptions in property tax growth. Typically, the initial growth assumptions
used by PAUSD in developing their budget are lower than the City’s. As the budget year
progresses, however, PAUSD will align their property tax revenue with actual increases that
tend to be closer to the City’s projections.
T ABLE 2 : PROPERTY T AX REVENUE BY FISCAL YEAR (MILLIONS)
Fiscal Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 20153 2016
Revenue $25.7 $26.5 $28.7 $30.6 $32.6 $34.3
In FY 2015, the Administrative Services Department contracted with a firm to produce detailed
reports on property taxes. The consultant’s reports have provided key insights into Palo Alto
real estate market that supports property taxes growing at around 5 percent per year include:
There are 8,600 residential properties in Palo Alto under $600,000 in Assessed Value.
These properties turn over at a rate of 570 annually;
Approximately 3 percent of residential parcels will increase in Assessed Value by an
average 63 percent. All other properties will increase by the historical average of 7
percent; and,
Per the 2013-201414 Assessor’s Roll, average Assessed Value of residential properties in
Palo Alto equal $944,000.
Transient Occupancy Tax (TOT)
As the table below shows, Transient Occupancy Taxes continue to perform exceptionally well.
As summarized in the table below, average daily room rates and occupancy levels continue to
demonstrate considerable strength since FY 2011. Generally, occupancy levels between 80 and
85 percent indicate full occupancy. Demand for Palo Alto rooms is strong, leading to
construction and planned construction of five new hotels. A vibrant business and tourist
environment has led to a surge in hotel bookings from San Francisco down through the
Peninsula to San Jose.
3 Projected revenue based on county year to date data and tren ds.
City of Palo Alto Page 20
T ABLE 3 : T RANSIENT OCCUPANCY T AX BY FISCAL YEAR (MILLIONS)
Fiscal Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 20154 2016
Revenue (millions) $8.1 $9.7 $10.8 $12.3 $15.9 $17.6
Average Daily Room Rate $147 $165 $182 $208 $198 n/a
Average Occupancy (percent) 73% 79% 80% 79% 84% n/a
This forecast includes estimated revenues for all of the new hotels built, being constructed, or
planned in the City. The Epiphany has opened and it is expected that two Hilton hotels will
open towards the end of FY 2015. The Westin Annex and a new hotel on the Ming’s restaurant
site are not expected to open until FY 2017. The voter approved TOT rate increase from 12 to
14 percent will take effect on January 1, 2015 and is expected to generate approximately $2.7
million in revenue in FY 2016. This forecast includes revenue from new hotels an d the 2
percent TOT rate increase and a corresponding $4.7 million transfer to infrastructure to support
the Infrastructure Plan that was recently adopted by Council.
The CAGR applied to the period FY 2016 through FY 2025 is 4.4 percent which is in line with
historical growth rates.
Documentary Transfer Tax (DTT)
The Documentary Transfer Tax continued to outperform expectations by reaching $8.1 million
in FY 2014 as compared to an average of $5.6 million over the prior three fiscal years. This
average was affected by the Great Recession and likely caused a burst of property transactions
(due to improving prices and low interest rates) in FY 2014. There were an unusually high
number of high value commercial property sales in FY 2014.
T ABLE 4 : DOCUMENTARY T RANSFER T AX BY FISCAL YEAR (MILLIONS)
Fiscal Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 20155 2016
Revenue $5.2 $4.8 $6.8 $8.1 $6.5 $6.9
Through October 2014, Documentary Transfer Tax receipts are running 40 percent below the
prior year period. As a result, the Forecast includes lower expectations for FY 2015. As stated
in prior forecasts, this revenue source is somewhat unpredictable given that the volume and
mix of commercial and residential transactions can vary significantly from year t o year. The
CAGR applied to the period FY 2016 through FY 2025 is 6.5 percent.
4 Projected revenue based on trend and Fiscal Year 2015 year to date data. Average Daily Room Rate and
Occupancy are year-to-date through October 2014.
5 Projected revenue based on county year to date data and trends.
City of Palo Alto Page 21
Utility Users Tax (UUT)
The Utility Users Tax forecast incorporates two changes approved by voters in November 2014.
The telephone UUT rate has been reduced from 5.0 percent to 4.75 percent and the large utility
user discount (which stepped down tax rates for water, gas, and electric usage) was eliminated.
These changes will be implemented in the next few months and according to state codes. On
an annual basis, the changes will reduce telephone revenues by an estimated $0.16 million
while ending the large utility user discount will raise utility related revenues by $0.55 million .
Receipts anticipated from the UUT are based on the Utilities Department’s five -year revenue
and rate projections. These estimates could change as the department discusses its proposed
rate plan with the Utilities Advisory Commission and the City Council during the annual budget
process.
Telephone receipts went down slightly from FY 2013 to FY 2014 and a lower level is expected in
FY 2015 based on the rate decrease. Unfortunately, there is little data available from
telecommunications providers to offer more informed projections.
Other Taxes & Fines
Staff anticipates that revenues in this category will remain flat in FY 2016 at $2.2 million. The
largest source of revenue in this category is derived from parking violations revenue, which
staff estimates will also hold flat in FY 2016 at $1.7 million. Additional revenue in this category,
such as traffic violations, administrative citations, and library fines and fees, are projected to
grow annually by 2.6 percent over the 10 year forecast.
Charges for Services
For FY 2016, total one-time revenues in this category will decrease by $0.6 million or 3.6
percent to $15.4 million from a FY 2015 projection of $16.0 million. The decline is largely
attributable to the Golf Course Reconfiguration Project (decrease of $1.0 million) which is
scheduled to begin in the spring of 2015 and continue through F Y 2016. It is important to note
that the one-time revenue decrease from the Golf Course closure is scheduled to be offset with
the liquidation of the Golf Course Operating Loss Reserve. In August 2014, the City Council
established the Golf Course Operating Loss Reserve in the amount of $0.6 million. As part of
the FY 2015 Midyear Budget Review, staff will bring forward a recommendation to increase the
reserve amount by approximately $0.4 million to $1 million.
Ongoing, this Forecast assumes a revenue increase of $0.3 million for Community Services
Department classes and camps to align with historical trends. In addition, charges for services
revenue was increased by 3.6 percent to account for general salary and benefit increase
included in the Forecast. These figures do not include Charges for Services revenue for Stanford
Fire & Dispatch which is explained in further detail below.
Stanford Fire & Dispatch Services
The City has two separate agreements with Stanford University to provide fire response
services and emergency dispatch services. As part of these agreements, Stanford is charged
City of Palo Alto Page 22
30.3 percent of the Fire Department’s net cost and 16 percent of the Police Department’s
Communication and Dispatch Division to reimburse the City for Stanford’s pro portional share of
these services. The FY 2016 Forecast assumes a reimbursement of $8.4 million, which is a 3.5
percent increase from the FY 2015 adopted amount of $8.1 million.
The term of the fire response service contract between the City and Stanfo rd is through
September 30, 2026; however, at Stanford’s request, the two parties have been in negotiations
over the past two years to restructure the contract. On October 8, 2013, the City received a
Notice of Termination letter from Stanford with the int ention to terminate the contract with
the City no sooner than one year and no later than two years from the date of the notice. In
order to plan for a possible termination of services, the City requested that Stanford inform the
City of the final termination date at least three months in advance to allow for a structured
potential reduction in force in the City's Fire Department. On November 20, 2013, Stanford
issued a Request for Proposal (RFP) for Delivery of Fire Department Services for the campus,
which the City responded to by the submission deadline of January 31, 2014. The FY 2016
Forecast assumes the continuation of the contract, because staff believes that the City of Palo
Alto is best suited to provide Fire Protection Services to Stanford. A mod est annual increase of
2.6 percent has been built into the outer years to account for increasing salary and benefit costs
based on currently available information.
Permits and Licenses
Revenue from permits and licenses has experienced consistent growth over the past several
years, primarily due to increased development activity around Palo Alto. Based on year -to-date
estimates, FY 2015 revenues are projected to decrease by 0.8 percent from the adopted budget
revenue estimate. Staff fully anticipates meeting or exceeding FY 2015 revenue estimates for
this category based upon current activity levels. In FY 2016, revenues in this category are
expected to increase by an additional $0.3 million, or 3.5 percent, from the FY 2015 projected
level. The Planning and Community Environment and Development Services department are
currently undertaking a fee study to review the appropriateness of planning and development
fees. Staff is expecting the study to be concluded in early 2015 and will evaluate changes in
planning and development fees and corresponding revenue estimates as part of the FY 2016
budget process.
Return on Investment
Interest earnings continue to be depressed as a consequence of the Federal Reserve’s loose
monetary and interest policies. Expectations for earnings from investments are around $0.9
million which is a 1.9 percent increase from FY 2015 yearend projections.
Rental Income
The largest source of rental income comes from the City’s Enterprise Funds and the Cubberley
Community Center. Compared to the FY 2015 Adopted Budget, rental income will remain flat at
$14.3 million. An appraisal of all General Fund properties that may result in additional rental
income will be completed in January 2015. For this forecast period, starting with FY 2017, a 2.6
City of Palo Alto Page 23
percent growth was assumed for all rental properties, except for the Refuse Fund rent which is
assumed until FY 2021 as approved by the City Council to account for the closing costs related
to the Middlefield Well landfill site.
Revenue from Other Agencies
Included in this category is funding from Community Services Outreach theatre programs,
reimbursements from the Palo Alto Unified School District (PAUSD) for School Resource
Officers, and state and federal grants, if received. Many of these revenue streams are difficult
to predict and are dedicated often to specific purposes. In this category revenues over the past
five fiscal years have ranged from $0.1 million to $0.4 million. This forecast assumes $0.3
million for FY 2016 with a growth rate of 1 percent in subsequent years due to the
unpredictability of this funding source.
Charges to Other Funds
Approximately 87 percent of this category is General Fund administrative cost plan charges to
the Enterprise and Internal Service Funds. The FY 2016 projected amount is $11.0 million, an
increase of 3.3 percent, from the FY 2015 Adopted Budget. The increase is primarily
attributable to increased salary and benefit costs in the internal support departments. The
forecast includes increases ranging between 2.6 to 3.6 percent each year based primarily on
assumed increases in salary and benefit costs.
Other Revenues
Major revenue sources in this category are reimbursements for the Shuttle program (e.g. City of
East Palo Alto), Animal Services charges to Los Altos and Los Altos Hills, reimbursements from
PAUSD for its share of Cubberley and athletic field maintenance, donations from non -profits to
City libraries, and miscellaneous revenues. Revenues for this category are estimated to increase
by 17 percent in FY 2016, mostly due to $0.4 million in increased revenue from partner agencies
for the Shuttle program. The FY 2016 projected revenue for this category is $1.5 million, with a
3.6 percent annual increase forecasted for FY 2017 and 2.6 percent annual increases through FY
2025.
Operating Transfers In
Operating Transfers include the equity transfer from the Electric and Gas funds as well as
transfers from the University Ave Parking Permit Fund. In accordance with a methodology
approved by Council in June 2009, the equity transfer is calculated by applying a rate of return
to the capital asset base of the Electric and Gas funds. This rate of return is based on PG&E's
rate of return on equity as approved by the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC). The
equity transfer from the Electric and Gas funds are projected to increase from $17.1 million in
FY 2015 to $17.3 million in FY 2016. Using the Utility Department’s projections from the
Electric and Gas Five Year Financial Forecasts, as approved by the City Council in spring 2014,
the equity transfer is projected to increase slightly in FY 2016 (0.9 percent) and then increase
annually by 2.6 percent over the rest of the forecast period. Overall Operating Transfers are
City of Palo Alto Page 24
estimated to increase from a projected FY 2015 yearend estimate of $18.6 million to $19.1
million in FY 2016, a 0.5 percent increase year over year.
Expenditures
As part of developing the FY 2016 Forecast expenditure budget, the General Fund expenditure
categories have been adjusted with removing FY 2015 Adopted Budget one -time expenditures
and updating major cost elements such as salary and benefits costs. The tables below display
the General Fund expense forecast. Compared to FY 2015 projected, FY 2016 expenditures are
estimated to increase by $6.7 million, or 3.9 percent primarily due to increased salary and
benefits, an increased transfer to infrastructure, and allocated charges costs from Enterprise
Funds and Internal Service Funds.
Fiscal Year 2016-2025 Long Range Expenditure Forecast
Expenditure
Adopted
2015
Projected
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Salary $53,788 $53,692 $56,123 $57,892 $59,510 $61,017 $62,512 $64,034 $65,587 $67,180 $68,817 $70,497
Benefits 53,177 53,094 54,524 58,073 61,212 64,436 67,780 71,260 74,882 78,660 82,601 86,717
Subtotal: Salary & Benefits 106,965 106,786 110,647 115,965 120,723 125,453 130,292 135,294 140,469 145,840 151,417 157,214
Contract Services 16,028 17,496 14,261 15,338 15,660 16,061 16,449 16,846 17,282 17,731 18,191 18,662
Supplies & Material 3,433 3,475 3,464 3,554 3,646 3,740 3,837 3,936 4,038 4,143 4,251 4,362
General Expense 5,058 5,069 4,727 4,829 4,934 5,041 5,151 5,265 5,380 5,500 5,621 5,747
Cubberley Lease 6,446 6,446 5,736 5,908 6,085 6,268 6,446 6,649 6,849 7,054 7,266 7,484
Debt Service 428 428 431 432 432 431 - - - - - -
Rents & Leases 1,356 1,365 1,391 1,427 1,464 1,502 1,541 1,581 1,622 1,664 1,708 1,752
Facilities & Equipment 556 556 486 499 512 525 539 553 567 582 597 613
Allocated Charges 15,080 15,047 15,589 15,883 16,294 16,721 17,159 17,609 18,067 18,537 19,019 19,513
Total Non Sal/Ben Before Transfers 48,385 49,882 46,085 47,870 49,027 50,290 51,121 52,438 53,807 55,211 56,653 58,133
Operating Transfers-Out 2,076 2,276 3,735 4,281 4,315 4,355 4,390 4,425 4,232 4,272 4,312 4,354
Transfer to Infrastructure 13,659 13,659 18,688 19,026 19,372 19,728 20,093 20,467 20,851 21,245 21,649 22,063
Total Use of Funds $171,084 $172,603 $179,155 $187,142 $193,437 $199,825 $205,896 $212,624 $219,358 $226,567 $234,032 $241,765
Expenditure
Adopted
2015
Projected
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Salary 6.3%-0.2%4.5%3.2%2.8%2.5%2.5%2.4%2.4%2.4%2.4%2.4%
Benefits 10.0%-0.2%2.7%6.5%5.4%5.3%5.2%5.1%5.1%5.0%5.0%5.0%
Subtotal: Salary & Benefits 8.1%-0.2%3.6%4.8%4.1%3.9%3.9%3.8%3.8%3.8%3.8%3.8%
Contract Services 11.8%9.2%-18.5%7.6%2.1%2.6%2.4%2.4%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%
Supplies & Material -2.2%1.2%-0.3%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%
General Expense 17.7%0.2%-6.8%2.2%2.2%2.2%2.2%2.2%2.2%2.2%2.2%2.2%
Cubberley Lease -11.3%0.0%-11.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%2.8%3.1%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%
Debt Service 84.5%0.0%0.7%0.3%0.0%-0.3%-100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Rents & Leases 10.2%0.7%1.9%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%
Facilities & Equipment 23.0%0.0%-12.5%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%
Allocated Charges -1.8%-0.2%3.6%1.9%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%
Total Non Sal/Ben Before Transfers 3.6%3.1%-7.6%3.9%2.4%2.6%1.7%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%
Operating Transfers-Out 54.0%9.6%64.1%14.6%0.8%0.9%0.8%0.8%-4.4%0.9%1.0%1.0%
Transfer to Infrastructure -20.7%0.0%36.8%1.8%1.8%1.8%1.8%1.9%1.9%1.9%1.9%1.9%
Total Use of Funds 4.2%0.9%3.8%4.5%3.4%3.3%3.0%3.3%3.2%3.3%3.3%3.3%
Salary and Benefits
The table above depicts the salaries and benefits costs for the next ten years. Over the
Forecast period, the salaries and benefits cost gradually increase in comparison to the total
expenditure budget. In FY 2016, salaries and benefits costs represent 62 percent of the
expenditure budget; in FY 2025, the salaries and benefits cost represent 65 percent of the
budget. In the same period, though, the benefits cost as a percentage of total salaries and
benefits costs increase from 49 percent in FY 2016 to 55 percent in FY 2025. Over the Forecast
period, salaries compounded growth is 26 percent versus a compounded growth in benefits
City of Palo Alto Page 25
costs of 59 percent. The following sections describe the assumed increases in salary an d
benefits costs and depict the reasons for the faster increasing benefits versus salaries costs.
Salary
The Forecast is consistent with the City’s change in salary budget methodology that was
implemented as part of the FY 2015 Adopted Budget. As such, positions are budgeted at actual
rate of pay including benefits as of fall 2014. Then, by position, salary costs are updated in
accordance with applicable Memoranda of Understanding (MOU) between the City and its
labor groups and the Management and Professional Personnel and Council Appointees
Compensation Plan. The Forecast also assumes merit increases for Management and
Professional employees as well as general salary increases for all labor groups consistent with
the existing MOU. Any other assumed general salary increases are assumed for planning
purposes only and do not signify a commitment of future salary increases.
A majority of the programmed salary increases for FY 2016 were approved by the City Council,
as any changes to employees’ salaries and benefits are part of the meet and confer process
with the City’s labor groups. However, the City is currently in negotiations with the Palo Alto
Police Officers Association (PAPOA) and the International Association of Fire Fighters (IAFF),
Local 1319. Pending negotiations with PAPOA and IAFF may impact the salary costs for FY 2016
Budget. Any such impacts will be included, as necessary, in the development of the FY 2016
Proposed Budget, which is scheduled for release to the City Council late April/earl y May 2015.
Benefits
Pension
The forecast includes the pension rates from CalPERS as of the June 30, 2013 valuation for the
City’s Miscellaneous and Safety plans. As stated in these valuations (Attachments A and B),
these valuations include the CalPERS approved actuarial mortality assumption changes; the
smoothing and amortization policies as discussed with the Finance Committee in December
2013 (CMR 4310); as well as the initial set of employees who receive the Tier 3 or Public
Employees’ Pension Reform Act (PEPRA) pension benefit level. Further, per the valuations, the
FY 2016-2017 rates, and thereafter, reflect the 18 percent investment return for FY 2014.
As shown in the table below, the FY 2016 pension contribution rates for the Miscellaneous and
Safety plans increased from the current year. For the Miscellaneous Plan, the pension
contribution rate increased by 1.6 percentage points from the FY 2015 rate of 26.1 percent to a
FY 2016 rate of 27.7 percent. For the Safety Plan, the pension contribu tion rate increased by
2.4 percentage points from the FY 2015 rate of 39.5 percent to a FY 2016 rate of 41.9 percent.
Per the attached valuations, the table below shows the pension contribution rates from FY
2016 through FY 2020. Thereafter, for the purpose of this Forecast, the pension contribution
rates continue to be escalated by 1.4 percent for the Miscellaneous Plan and 2.4 percent for the
Safety Plan.
City of Palo Alto Page 26
T ABLE 5: PENSION R ATES BY P LAN (FISCAL YEAR)
Pension Plans 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Miscellaneous 26.1% 27.7% 29.9% 31.4% 33.0% 34.6% 36.2% 37.8% 39.4% 41.0% 42.6%
Safety 39.5% 41.9% 45.1% 47.5% 49.9% 52.3% 54.7% 57.1% 59.5% 61.9% 64.3%
As indicated in the table below, the unfunded pension liability and funding status for
Miscellaneous and Safety (see pg. 6 of Miscellaneous and Safety Valuations for further detail)
plans have improved slightly from the last valuation. For the Miscellaneous Plan, the unfunded
liability was reduced by $12.3 million from $202.6 million to $190.3 million, and the funded
ratio improved by 3.6 percentage points from 64.8 percent to 68.4 percent. Similarly, for the
Safety Plan, the unfunded liability was reduced by $6.8 million from $112.0 million to $105.2
million, and the funded ratio improved by 3.1 percentage points from 65.8 percent to 68.9
percent. Despite these improvements, the cumulative unfunded liability for both pension plans
amounts to $295.6 million and will require continuous higher pension payments to CalPERS
during this Forecast and beyond.
T ABLE 6 : U NFUNDED PENSION LIABILITY BY PLAN
Miscellaneous Plan Safety Plan
June 30, 2012 June 30, 2013 June 30, 2012 June 30, 2013
1. Present Value of Projected Benefits $662,770,685 $690,227,166 $382,313,961 $392,560,445
2. Normal Accrued Liability $576,182,013 $602,540,178 $327,608,300 $338,666,499
3. Market Value of Assets $373,592,926 $412,227,784 $215,605,457 $233,417,363
4. Unfunded Liability [(2) – (3)] $202,589,087 $190,312,394 $112,002,843 $105,249,136
5. Funded Ratio [(3) / (2)] 64.8% 68.4% 65.8% 68.9%
Retiree Healthcare
This Forecast includes the Annual Required Contribution (ARC) per the May 2014 actuarial
valuation based on information as of June 30, 2013, (accepted by the City Council on June 9,
2014) for the City’s retiree healthcare plan. The City’s total ARC is increasing approximately 3.4
percent annually; however, based on the valuation report, over the next 10 years the City’s
Retiree Healthcare fund is projected to move towards a “pay as you go” model instead of
continuing to pre-fund future retiree healthcare needs due to increasing healthcare benefit
payments to current and future retirees. As a result of this shift during the Forecast period, less
of the ARC pays towards pre-funding future benefits and rather for benefits of current and
future retirees.
The City’s Retiree Healthcare Trust fund is administered by the California Employers’ Retiree
Benefit Trust, a division of CalPERS. As of August 31, 2014, th e City’s Retiree Healthcare funded
ratio stands at 35.1% and the projected unfunded liability as of June 30, 2013 per the City’s
actuary is $143.6 million. Staff is evaluating an increase to the ARC with budget surpluses that
become available as part of the closing of the annual budget in order to prefund the healthcare
liability and increase the funded ratio.
City of Palo Alto Page 27
Healthcare
As a result of the new labor agreement between the City and the Service Employees
International Union (SEIU), the City’s contribution amount towards the medical costs for SEIU
employees changed from a 90 percent contribution from the City and a 10 percent contribution
from the employee to a flat contribution from the City and the employee contributing towards
the remaining medical plan premium. This change took effect in March 2014, and it will also be
implemented for Management and Professional employees effective January 1, 2015. All other
labor groups eligible for medical benefits will remain on the 90/10 contribution structure until
new labor agreements are reached with the City and the affected bargaining groups. This
Forecast assumes an annual health care cost inflator of 8 percent for the labor groups on the
90/10 medical benefit structure, and a 4 percent annual health care cost inflator for the labor
groups on the flat rate contribution structure. Consistent with the previous forecast and with
historical trends, the 2016-2025 LRFF assumes a 4 percent increase for dental and vision costs
for outer years.
Contract Services
The FY 2015 Adopted Budget included $16.0 million to fund contract services of which
approximately $2.8 million was for one-time items that include $1.0 million for a Cubberley
Reserve; $1.0 million for a Shuttle Reserve, $0.4 million for the Our Palo Alto community
engagement process; and $0.4 million for other activities such as a consultant led fee study for
the Planning & Community Environment and Development Services departments and data
analytic support for People Strategy & Operations. In addition, the FY 2015 Adopted Budget
assumed that the Golf Course would be closed during the fiscal year; however, due to the delay
in the Golf Course Reconfiguration project, the Golf Course is now scheduled to remain open
through February 2015 resulting in additional contract expenses of $0.6 million. Additional City
Council approved actions during the course of FY 2015 that are attributed to the 9.2 percent
increase in year-end Contract Services projections from the adopted budget include $0.1 million
for the Climate Action Plan and an additional $0.2 million for the East Palo Alto Shuttle Route,
which was offset with revenue from the City of East Palo Alto. For FY 2016, the Forecast
assumes that the Golf Course will be closed during the entire fiscal year and will resum e
operations in early FY 2017 adding an additional $0.8 million of contract services in FY 2017.
When adjusting for one-time expenditures included in the FY 2015 Adopted Budget, the FY
2016 base budget for Contract Services is $13.2 million. For the FY 2016 Forecast Budget year,
$0.8 million has been added for additional Shuttle service expenses offset with revenue from
the City of East Palo Alto as approved by the Council on June 23, 2014, in addition to $0.2
million for continued Transportation Management Authority development as approved by the
Council in August 2014.
In the out-years of the Forecast, 2.6 percent of annual growth for contract services is assumed.
This is aligned to the 20 year historical average of the San Francisco Metropolitan Stat istical
Area Consumer Price Index – All Urban Consumers of 2.6 percent.
City of Palo Alto Page 28
Supplies & Materials
The category for Supplies and Materials remains flat at $3.5 million in the FY 2016 Forecast
Budget from the current year projection. For the out-years of the Forecast, it is assumed that
costs will increase based on the 2.6 percent annual CPI increase.
General Expense
This category includes costs for travel and meetings, telephone and non -city utilities,
contingency accounts, subsidies and grants provided thro ugh the Human Resource Allocation
Process, and debt service payments for the Master Lease-Purchase Agreement related to the
Golf Course. In this category, the Forecast projects a 6.8 percent decrease from $5.0 million in
FY 2015 to $4.7 million in FY 2016. The decrease is due to a reduction of $0.3 million in one-
time election costs. For the remaining years of the forecast, this category assumes annual
increases between 2.5 and 2.7 percent. These figures do not include General Expenses for the
Cubberley Lease which is explained in further detail below.
Cubberley Lease
In the FY 2015 Adopted Budget, $6.4 million was appropriated for Cubberley Lease payments
with an additional $1.0 million set-aside in reserve pending the outcome of lease negotiations
with the Palo Alto Unified School District (PAUSD). As a result of negotiations with PAUSD, $1.9
million will be set-aside annually in a Cubberley Reserve Fund for future infrastructure
improvements. As part of the lease agreement, the City Council approved crea tion of a fund for
Cubberley infrastructure improvements. Therefore, the $1.9 million is classified as an
Operating Transfer Out which is discussed in further detail below. With the Cubberley reserve
funds set aside, the FY 2016 Forecast Budget includes $5.7 million for Cubberley Lease
payments, up $0.2 million or 3.0 percent from FY 2015, but in accordance with the new lease
agreement with PAUSD.
In accordance with the lease agreement, the Forecast assumes a 3.0 percent annual CPI
increase for the lease payments to the Palo Alto Unified School District (PAUSD) for the
Cubberley facility. Also, the lease agreement period is five years; however, for planning
purposes in this Forecast, it is assumed that the agreement will continue during the Forecast
period.
Rents & Leases
Rent and Lease expenses for FY 2016 are estimated to increase by $26,000 from the FY 2015
projected level of $1.3 million. The largest expense in this category is $1.0 million for the
Development Services Center. From FY 2017 onwards, this expense is expected to increase by
2.6 percent per year.
Facilities & Equipment
Facilities and equipment expenses for FY 2016 are projected to decrease by 12.5 percent , which
is attributable to decreased Golf Course operating expenses; however, project ed expenses in
City of Palo Alto Page 29
this category of $0.5 million will remain fairly consistent in FY 2016 and beyond. Consistent
with the 20-year CPI for the San Francisco San Jose Metropolitan Statistical Area, the forecast
assumes a 2.6 percent annual increase starting in FY 2017.
Allocated Charges
Allocated charges represent expense allocations by the City’s enterprise and internal services
funds for services and products they provide to General Fund departments. In FY 2016, these
charges are estimated at $15.6 million including utilities usage (25.8 percent or $4.0 million),
liability insurance (8.3 percent or $1.3 million), technology costs (36.5 percent, or $5.7 million),
vehicle equipment and replacement costs (23.7 percent or $3.7 million), and other costs (5.7
percent, or $0.9 million). The FY 2016 charges of the forecast updates the revenue and expense
for these cost plans based on the most current information available at the time of Forecast
development. Growth of 2.6 percent is anticipated in the outer years, which is based on the
average annual expense growth over the forecast period.
Operating Transfers Out
Operating Transfers Out include transfers from the General Fund to the Debt Service Fund,
Technology Fund, and Airport Fund. Fiscal Year 2015 yearend p rojected transfers out total $2.3
million which is an increase of $0.2 million compared to the FY 2015 Adopted Budget amount.
The one-time increase in the amount transferred to the Airport Fund is for legal services related
to the August 2014 takeover of the airport by the City from Santa Clara County. In FY 2016, an
increase in this expense category of $1.5 million is assumed due to operating transfers of $1.9
million for the Cubberley Infrastructure Fund offset with the elimination of one -time transfers.
In FY 2017, the anticipated issuance of debt related to the golf course reconfiguration will
increase the total amount for the FY 2017 Forecast Budget by $0.5 million to $4.2 million.
A $0.3 million transfer to the Airport Fund from the General Fund is i ncluded in FY 2016
projected amounts, which represents the same figure assumed in the FY 2015 LRFF. While the
City has taken over operations of the Airport from Santa Clara County, it is anticipated that the
Airport Fund will have to rely on General Fund transfers to cover its operating expenses for a
number of years. As such, this transfer continues throughout the Forecast.
Transfer to Infrastructure
In FY 2015, the adopted transfer to the Capital Project Fund is $13.7 million. The transfer for FY
2016 is significantly higher at $18.7 million. The increase is attributable to two factors. The
primary driver of the increase is transfers associated with the City Council approved
Infrastructure Plan. A significant portion of the plan was reliant upon in creased Transient
Occupancy Tax (TOT) receipts, both from the addition of new hotels in Palo Alto, as well as a
two percent increase in the tax (from twelve percent to fourteen percent), which was approved
by Palo Alto voters in November 2014. The Infrastructure Plan assumes that these new
revenues will be available to support debt service costs associated with the build -out of
infrastructure improvements included in the plan ($2.5 million related to the new hotels and
City of Palo Alto Page 30
$2.2 million from the tax increase for the Forecast period). Secondly, the annual transfer
amount is increased by the CPI, 2.6 percent for FY 2016. Increases of 2.6% are assumed for the
remaining years of the forecast as well.
Alternative Fiscal Year 2016-2025 Long Range Financial Forecast
CalPERS Investment Return Analysis
The attached CalPERS valuations (pages 26-27) provide a three year analysis of alternative
investment return scenarios. This alternative Forecast model builds on the information
provided by CalPERS assuming an annual investment return of 2.8 percent versus 7.5 percent
starting with FY 2018. At this time, the CalPERS Board approved an annual investment return
target of 7.5 percent. Based on the information provided by CalPERS, this alternative Forecast
model keeps the incremental annual increase of the City’s pension contribution of 2.9
percentage points for the Miscellaneous Plan and 4.7 percentage points for the Safety Plan
constant after Fiscal Year 2020 (see table below).
T ABLE 7: PENSION R ATES BY PLAN (F ISCAL YEAR ) WITH A LOWER ASSUMED INVESTMENT RETURN
Pension Plans 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Miscellaneous 26.1% 27.7% 29.9% 31.9% 34.5% 37.4% 40.3% 43.2% 46.1% 49.0% 51.9%
Safety 39.5% 41.9% 45.1% 48.3% 52.3% 57.0% 61.7% 66.4% 71.1% 75.8% 80.5%
Based on these higher annual pension rates, pension costs would increase by a total of $34 .0
million over the forecast period, compared to the base model. The General Fund annual
surplus in Fiscal Year 2018, the first year impacted by the highe r rates, would be reduced from
$1.1 million in the base model to $0.7 million, a 36 percent reduction. This trend would
continue through Fiscal Year 2025 as the projected General Fund surplus of $3.4 million in Fiscal
Year 2025 would become a General Fund deficit of $5.4 million. During the Forecast period, the
net operating margin fluctuates between positive $0.6 million and negative $5.4 million. This
model does not project any additional revenue growth compared to the base model, which is
the main reason expenditures begin to outpace revenue in Fiscal Year 2021 and this gap
continues to grow through Fiscal Year 2025.
Fiscal Year 2016-2025 Long Range Revenue Forecast – CalPERS Investment Return Alternate
Model
Projected
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Total Revenue $176,878 $179,637 $186,962 $194,498 $201,233 $208,304 $214,408 $221,070 $228,864 $236,926 $245,129
Total Expenditures $172,603 $179,155 $187,142 $193,816 $200,991 $208,179 $216,078 $224,039 $232,532 $241,342 $250,481
BSR $31,932 $33,144 $34,621 $35,856 $37,183 $38,513 $39,974 $41,447 $43,018 $44,648 $46,339
Net One-Time Surplus/(Shortfall)$4,275 $482 ($180)$682 $242 $125 ($1,670)($2,968)($3,669)($4,415)($5,352)
Cumulative Net Operating Margin (One-Time)($16,722)
Net Operating Margin $0 $0 ($180)$682 ($440)$565 ($1,670)($2,968)($3,669)($4,415)($5,352)
Cumulative Net Operating Margin ($17,447)
Assumes that the annual shortfalls are solved with ongoing solutions and annual surpluses are spent for ongoing expenditures.
Major Tax Revenue Sensitivity Analysis
City of Palo Alto Page 31
As discussed in this Forecast, FY 2016 total tax receipts are estimated to generate
approximately $100.3 million. This assumes an average tax receipts annual growth of 3.1%
from FY 2015 yearend projections to FY 2016. The year over year a ssumed growth in total tax
revenues is between 3.1% and 4.6% for the Forecast period. All other assumptions remaining
the same, if tax revenue receipts growth falls short by one percentage point from 2.1% to 3.6%
in FY 2016, the loss in revenue would be approximately $1.0 million; however, a year over year
loss of one percentage point in annual revenue growth would result in a cumulative one -time
revenue loss of approximately $47.2 million through the forecast period.
Conclusion
This Forecast projects a slight General Fund surplus of $0.5 million for FY 2016 and, except for a
slight budget shortfall in FY 2017, reflects a generally positive outlook over the next 10 years.
Economic indicators demonstrate that the local business environment is rebounding; however,
substantial financial obligations and added uncertainties may diminish the General Fund surplus
over the next 10 years.
The City Council approved Infrastructure Plan needs to be fully funded and contingencies for
land acquisition and constructions costs need to be planned for. As the City’s unfunded
pension and retiree medical liabilities have increased to $439.1 million, the City could be well
positioned if additional funds were contributed to the pension and retiree healthcare trust
funds to reduce the unfunded liabilities. This Forecast assumes the Fiscal Year 2015 service
level and supports the City Council’s plans for enhancements to the Shuttle Service and funding
for the Transportation Management Authority.
While the City is addressing these short-term and long-term issues, the City needs to continue
reviewing its operations and service delivery options. Over the last few years, the City has
outsourced services to the private sector and entered into negotiations with the non -profit
sector for public-private partnerships. In November, the City Council approved a letter of intent
with the Friends of the Palo Alto Junior Museum and Zoo with the goal to rebuild the current
facility and to enter into a 40 year lease for the Friends to operate the Junior Mus eum and Zoo.
While the City further explores alternative service delivery models with the goal to reduce staff
levels and related unfunded pension and retiree healthcare liabilities, the City will also review
cost recovery levels of services currently provided to the community. In early 2015, staff
intends to bring forward a policy framework for City Council discussion and input, which will
guide staff in setting appropriate fees for various services based on the values of our
community.
The City is currently updating its Comprehensive Plan. During recent discussions with the City
Council, staff was directed to assess the fiscal impacts of the simplified planning scenarios that
will be used to analyze policy choices that will have to be made as part of the update. Once the
Council approves the Comprehensive Plan update with its inherent policy choices, revenue
assumptions for future Forecasts will be aligned with the new Comprehensive Plan.
City of Palo Alto Page 32
During the next two months, staff will continue to monitor revenue sources as well as update
revenues and expenditures, as applicable, based on newly available information. This updated
information will be reflected in the FY 2016 Proposed Budget, which is scheduled to be released
to the City Council late April/early May 2015.
Attachments:
Attachment A - CalPERS June 30, 2013 Valuation for the Miscellaneous Plan (PDF)
Attachment B - CalPERS June 30, 2013 Valuation for the Safety Plan (PDF)
i
ii
iii
iv
v
vi
vii
viii
International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Economic Outlook, April 2014
Silicon Valley Bank, Innovation Economy Global Outlook, 2014
International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Economic Outlook, October 2014
Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Third Quarter (Advance Estimate), October 2014
BEA, Ibid.
UCLA Anderson Forecast, September 2014
Dallas Federal Reserve Bank, Economic Letter, Vol. 9, No. 13, October 2014
United States Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), New Residential Construction
ix
x
xi
xii
xiii
xiv
xv
xvi
xvii
in September 2014, October 2014
National Association of Realtors, Realtors Confidence Index (September 2014), October 2014
UCLA Anderson Forecast, Op. Cit.
San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, FedViews, October 2014
UCLA Anderson Forecast, Op. Cit.
Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Advance 2013 and Revised 1997 - 2012 Statistics of GDP by
State, June 2014
UCLA Anderson Forecast, Op. Cit.
Zillow, California Home Prices and Values, Zillow Home Value Index, Assess October 2014
UCLA Anderson Forecast, Op. Cit.
Knight Foundation, Soul of the Community, What Makes People Happy With Their Communities?,
Assessed October 2014
xviii
xix
Citylab, Character Is Key to an Economically Vibrant City, The Atlantic, Accessed October 2014
United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Palo Alto Unemployment Rate, Accessed October
2014
xx
xxi
California Board of Equalization (BOE), Taxable Retail Sales, Accessed October 2014
Zillow, Palo Alto Home Prices & Values, Zillow Value Home Index, Accessed October 2014
Endnotes: