HomeMy WebLinkAboutStaff Report 2180City of Palo Alto (ID # 2180)
Finance Committee Staff Report
Report Type:Meeting Date: 10/18/2011
October 18, 2011 Page 1 of 5
(ID # 2180)
Council Priority: City Finances
Summary Title: Retiree Medical Study
Title: Review and Acceptance of Updated Retiree Medical Actuarial Study -
Valuation Date January 1, 2011 and Valuation Date June 30, 2011
From:City Manager
Lead Department: Administrative Services
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This report provides the City Council with the actuarial study results required by the
Government Accounting Standards Board's (GASB) Statement No. 45, Accounting and Financial
Reporting by Employers for Post Employment Benefits Other Than Pensions. The results of the
study as compared to the 2009 study show a fairly dramatic increase in Citywide costs. See
Attachment B, slide 31 for a summary of the study results.
RECOMMENDATION
Staff recommends that the Council review and approve the attached actuarial valuation results
(see Attachment A).
BACKGROUND
Per GASB Statement No. 45, beginning in Fiscal Year 2008, like other governmental entities, the
City of Palo Alto was required to recognize in its financial statements any unfunded, earned
retiree medical costs including those for current active employees. GASB 45 also requires the
City to complete an actuarial study on a biennial basis, to determine the retiree medical liability
and how much the City should be setting aside each year to fund that liability, the annual
required contribution (ARC).
In Fiscal Year 2008, the City established an irrevocable trust with California Employers Retirees
Benefit Trust (CERBT) for retiree medical benefits. In Fiscal Year 2008, the City transferred $33.8
million to the trust. As of January 1, 2011, the trust was valued at $40.2 million, and as of June
30, 2011, it was valued at $44.8 million. Of course, recent market volatility may have a
downward effect on future figures, not included in this study.
DISCUSSION
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October 18, 2011 Page 2 of 5
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Bartel and Associates completed an actuarial valuation for the City on October 11, 2011 with
two valuation dates: January 1, 2011 and June 30, 2011. The reason for the two valuation
dates goes back to a new regulation pertaining to members of the CERBT (trust). All the City’s
past valuations have used a January 1 valuation date. However, beginning FY 2012, members of
the CERBT are required by GASB 57 to switch to a common valuation date of June 30.
Therefore for this study only, the City opted to utilize both the January 1 and June 30 valuation
dates. The January 1, 2011 valuation determines the Actuarially Required Contribution (ARC)
for FY 2012; the June 30, 2011 valuation determines the ARC for FY 2013 and FY 2014.
January 1, 2011 Valuation Date
The actuarial study using a valuation date of January 1, 2011 valued the City's unfunded retiree
medical liability at $134.7 million, compared to the unfunded liability of $105.0 million on
January 1, 2009 –a 28% increase.
The Annual Required Contribution (ARC) associated with the January 1, 2011 valuation is
$13.6 million for Fiscal Year 2012. This is an increase of $3.8 million (39%) over the ARC of
$9.8 million associated with the January 1, 2009 valuation. The dramatic increase in the City’s
retiree medical liability between the 2009 and 2011 studies is attributable to several
differences in assumptions used by the respective actuarial firms (Milliman and Associates
performed the 2009 study, and Bartel and Associates performed the current study). Those
differences are as follows (Attachment A, page 7 also summarizes the assumption changes and
their impact on the City’s liability):
1.New CalPERS “Decrements.” The most recent CalPERS experience study –which gathers
demographic information throughout the state –noted increasing lifespans of retirees,
decreasing average retirement age, and other factors, all of which increase the City’s
projected unfunded liability by approximately $8 million.
2.Recent Spike in Palo Alto Retirements –as cost-sharing and wage freezes have been
implemented, many people have accelerated their retirement plans. There were more
than the projected retirements between 2009 and 2011. All of the retirements since the
last study added $2.7 million to the City’s unfunded liability.
3.Medical Trend Assumptions –The table below shows the difference in medical premium
growth rates assumed in the respective studies. Milliman assumed a slow but steady
increase in rates ranging from 6.5% in the early years and settling at 5.85% from 2018
on. On the other hand, Bartel assumes that the rate of increase will be more front-
loaded, starting at 9% and settling to 5% per year starting in 2021. Cumulative increases
assumed in the more recent report are higher than those assumed in 2009. (See
Attachment B, slide 10 for a comparison of specific medical trend assumptions in the
two studies, and Attachment C for PERS Medical Plan rate changes 2002-2012.) This
added $4.8 million to the City’s unfunded liability.
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4.“Actuarial Load”–This is a 2% premium applied to assumed costs based on the premise
that PERS Preferred Provider (PPO) Medical Plan premiums have been increasing at a
slower rate than have claim costs. PERS has been funding the difference from reserves,
but Bartel believes that eventually rate increases will need to bounce upward to more
evenly match the increased costs. This anticipated “bounce” adds $3.4 million to the
City’s unfunded liability.
5.Cost Sharing by Miscellaneous Group –This change in benefits was implemented after
the 2009 study and caused the City’s unfunded liability to decrease by $14.2 million.
Note that the impact of any public safety group concessions is not included in this study.
6.Migration of Retirees to More Expensive Medical Plans –While 13% of actives are
enrolled in PERS PPO plans, that percentage rises to 32% for retirees under 65, and to
54% of retirees over 65. This seems to be due to the increased portability of the PPO
plans for retirees who move out of the area. The last study may not have recognized
this trend, which adds $7.7 million to the City’s unfunded liability. (See Attachment B,
slide 7 for enrollment statistics for active and retired employees.)
7.Asset Smoothing –Bartel recommends smoothing gains and losses in the trust balance
over 5 years, to avoid volatility in the City’s ARC. For example, the year-end 2010 Trust
balance was $40.2 million, an increase of 26% over the year-end 2009 balance of $32.0
million. With asset smoothing, the actuarial value of the trust assets for year-end 2010
would be $35.3 million, since that 26% gain is spread over the next five years. By saving
some of the market gain for subsequent years when there may be losses, the City
assumed an additional $4.6 million in unfunded liability.
8.Closed Amortization Period –Rather than continually “re-up” the 30-year amortization
period, which would never actually completely pay off the liability, Bartel recommends
amortizing over the remaining 28 years of the 30-year period beginning 2009. The
impact of this change on the City’s unfunded liability is included in that of the
Demographic and Other Factors discussed below.
9.Demographic and Other Factors –These are ways in which the City's actual experience
differs from what is assumed in the CalPERS experience study. For example, to the
extent that City employees retire earlier or later than average, or go out on disability
more or less than the statewide average, this affects the liability. In our case these
factors add $12.4 million to our unfunded liability. (See Attachment B, slide 5 for
statistics on active and retired employees included in the study.)
The General Fund’s share of the citywide ARC totals approximately $9.5 million annually for
FY 2012, an increase of $2.7 million from the amount budgeted for FY 2012 based on the
January 1, 2009 valuation. That amount can be funded from the CERBT trust, if needed. Staff
will provide more precise figures for the General Fund portion by the October 18 Finance
Committee meeting. (See Attachment D: Results by Fund.)
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(ID # 2180)
June 30, 2011 Valuation Date
The actuarial study using a valuation date of June 30, 2011 valued the City's unfunded liability
at $139.7 million, which is an increase of $5.0 million over the January 1 valuation date. The
ARC associated with this valuation is $14.4 million for Fiscal Year 2013, and projected at $14.8
million for 2014. (Again, see Attachment B, slide 31.) The $0.8 million jump in the ARC
between FY 2012 and FY 2013 is primarily due to the decrease in assumed discount rate from
7.75% to 7.25%.
The reasons for the respective discount rate assumptions are:
The January 1, 2011 valuation assumed a discount rate of 7.75% as mandated by CERBT.
Beginning Fiscal Year 2013, CERBT requires that each member agency employ a discount rate
no higher than 7.61%, as applicable to its selected asset allocation. The trust offers three
possible asset allocations, of which Option 1 –the City’s chosen option -has the highest
projected yield. CERBT’s expected return over a 20-year period for Option 1 Asset
Classifications is 7.61%, with a 50% confidence limit. Bartel recommends dropping the assumed
rate to 7.25% to achieve a 60% confidence limit.
The General Fund portion of the FY 2013 and FY 2014 ARCs is $10.0 million and $10.3 million,
respectively. Again, staff will provide more precise figures for the General Fund portion of the
FY 2013 and 2014 ARCs by the October 18 Council meeting.
RESOURCE IMPACT
The FY 2012 budget allocated $9.8 million towards the ARC for all funds, but this amount was
an estimate before the actuarial study was completed. The ARC contained in the actuarial study
was $13.6 million, representing an increase of $3.8 million across all City funds. The General
Fund portion of the increase is $2.3 million for FY 2012, which may be drawn from the trust, if
needed. Future years’ ARC funding will need to be incorporated into those years’ budgets. Staff
will provide funding recommendations during the Mid-Year or FY 2013 proposed budget
process.
ENVIRONMENTAL REVIEW
The action recommended is not a project for the purposes of the California Environmental
Quality Act.
Attachments:
·-a:Attachment A: Executive Summary (PDF)
·-b:Attachment B: Revised Preliminary Results (PDF)
·-c:Attachment C: 2002-2012 PEMHCA Premiums (PDF)
·-d:Attachment D: Results by Fund (PDF)
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October 18, 2011 Page 5 of 5
(ID # 2180)
Prepared By:Nancy Nagel, Senior Financial Analyst
Department Head:Lalo Perez, Director
City Manager Approval: ____________________________________
James Keene, City Manager
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City of Palo Alto
Retiree Healthcare Plan
January 1, 2011 & June 30, 2011 Actuarial Valuations
Executive Summary
October 11, 2011
Bartel Associates, LLC
411 Borel Avenue, Suite 101
San Mateo, California 94402
Phone: 650-377-1600
Email: jbartel@bartel-associates.com
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O:\Clients\City of Palo Alto\OPEB\2011 val\Reports\BA PaloAltoCi 11-10-11 OPEB 6-30-11 Valuation Executive Summary.doc
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City of Palo Alto Retiree Healthcare Plan
January 1, 2011 & June 30, 2011 Actuarial Valuations
Executive Summary
October 11, 2011
Governmental Accounting Standards Board Statement No. 45 (GASB 45), “Accounting and Financial
Reporting by Employers for Postemployment Benefits Other Than Pensions” provides standards for the
financial reporting of the City’s Retiree Healthcare Plan. The City implemented GASB 45 for the
2007/08 fiscal year. The January 1, 2011 actuarial valuation provides the financial reporting information
for the City’s 2011/12 fiscal year and the June 30, 2011 actuarial valuation provides the financial
reporting information for the City’s 2012/13 and 2013/14 fiscal years.
VALUATION RESULTS
Participants: The same participant data was used to prepare both the January 1, 2011 and June 30, 2011
actuarial valuations. A summary of this data as of June 30, 2011 is:
Participants 6/30/11
Actives
Number 923
Average Age 44.7
Average City Service 10.8
Average PERS Service 13.7
Average Pay $86,007
Total Payroll (000’s) $79,384
Retirees
Number 860
Average Age 67.0
Average Retirement Age 55.5
Plan Assets: Assets must be set aside in a trust that cannot legally be used for any purpose other than to
pay retiree healthcare benefits in order to be considered plan assets for GASB 45 purposes. The City's
retiree healthcare plan is currently funded with the CalPERS Trust (CERBT).
The City began prefunding the plan’s obligations during 2007/08. The City’s intention is to fund the full
ARC each year. Investment gains and losses relative to the assumed net rate of return are spread over a 5-
year period by using an Actuarial Value of Assets rather than the Market Value of Assets to determine the
plan’s costs and funded status. This helps smooth any volatility in the Market Value of Assets and provides
an element of stability for the plan expense and City contributions. The Actuarial Value of Assets is kept
within a corridor of 80% to 120% of the Market Value to make sure it does not diverge significantly from
the Market Value of Assets.
The Market Value of Assets was $40,213,000 and the Actuarial Value of assets was $35,294,000 on January
1, 2011. The Market Value of Assets was $44,774,000 and the Actuarial Value of assets was $40,222,000
on June 30, 2011. The following table shows how the Market Value of Assets changed through 6/30/11 and
is projected to change during 2011/12.
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City of Palo Alto Retiree Healthcare Plan
January 1, 2011 & June 30, 2011 Actuarial Valuations Executive Summary
Page 2
October 11, 2011
Plan Assets
(Amounts in 000’s) 2009 2010
1/1/11-
6/30/11
Projected
2011/12
Market Value at Beginning of Year $ 24,616 $ 32,042 $ 40,213 $ 44,774
Contributions 700 3,532 2,448 5,165
Benefit Payments - - - -
Administrative Expenses (23) (34) (41) -
Investment Earnings 6,749 4,674 2,155 3,246
Market Value at End of Year 32,042 40,213 44,774 53,185
Actuarial Value at End of Year 35,294 40,222 49,279
Annualized Investment Return
Market Value 26.9% 13.7% 5.3% 7.3%
Actuarial Value 11.6% 11.9% 7.0% 9.7%
Funded Status: A plan’s funded status is measured by comparing the Actuarial Accrued Liability (see
definitions and assumptions section below) with Plan Assets. A plan is considered funded when Plan
Assets equal the Actuarial Accrued Liability. As the City’s retiree healthcare plan had not been funded
prior to GASB 45 implementation in 2007/08, the City established a contribution policy that would fund
benefits as earned for each future year and would fund the Unfunded Actuarial Accrued Liability over a
30-year period.
GASB 45 requires the discount rate used to determine the present value of future benefit payments be based
on the source of funds used to pay the benefits. This is the expected long-term net earnings rate on plan
assets for funded plans and the expected long-term net earnings rate on an agency’s investment fund for
unfunded plans. A 7.75% and 7.25% discount rate was used for the City’s January 1, 2011 and
June 30, 2011 valuations, respectively, representing the long-term expected net return for the CERBT. See
page 5 in the Definitions and Assumptions Section for a discussion of the discount rates used in the
valuations.
The plan was approximately 21% funded as of January 1, 2011, and 22% funded as of June 30, 2011:
1/1/11 Valuation 6/30/11 Valuation
Funded Status
(Amounts in 000’s)
7.75%
Discount Rate
7.25%
Discount Rate
Actuarial Accrued Liability (AAL)
Actives $ 51,179 $ 57,479
Retirees 118,800 122,444
Total 169,979 179,923
Actuarial Value of Plan Assets (AVA) 35,294 40,222
Unfunded AAL (UAAL) 134,685 139,701
Funded Percentage (AVA/AAL) 21% 22%
Annual Required Contribution (ARC): The Annual Required Contribution is the Normal Cost plus an
amortization payment toward the Unfunded Actuarial Accrued Liability. The Normal Cost is the value of
benefits allocated to the current fiscal year for service worked during that year. The Unfunded Liability is
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City of Palo Alto Retiree Healthcare Plan
January 1, 2011 & June 30, 2011 Actuarial Valuations Executive Summary
Page 3
October 11, 2011
amortized as a level percent of payroll over a period of 28 years as of June 30, 2011 (27 years remaining
as of June 30, 2012).
The City’s Annual Required Contributions for 2011/12, 2012/13 and 2013/14 are as follows:
7.75% 7.25% Annual Required Contribution
(Amounts in 000’s) 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14
Normal Cost $ 4,937 $ 5,609 $ 5,791
Unfunded Liability Amortization 8,666 8,769 9,054
Annual Required Contribution 13,603 14,378 14,845
Estimated Payroll 80,664 83,285 85,992
ARC as a % of Payroll 16.9% 17.3% 17.3%
Amortization Period 28 Yrs 27 Yrs 26 Yrs
Net OPEB Obligation (NOO): The City’s Net OPEB Obligation is the historical difference since GASB
45 implementation between actual contributions made and Annual Required Contributions. Benefits paid
for current retirees directly from City assets are considered contributions. The Net OPEB Obligation
would be zero for an agency that always contributed the Annual Required Contributions. An agency that
contributed more than the ARC would have a Net OPEB Asset (NOA).
Annual OPEB Cost (AOC): The Annual OPEB Cost is the plan’s fiscal year expense. It is equal to the
Annual Required Contribution plus expected interest on the Net OPEB Obligation less an amortization of
the Net OPEB Obligation. It is different from the Annual Required Contribution because the Annual
Required Contribution may include a provision for amounts not yet funded that have been expensed in
prior Annual OPEB Costs. The Annual OPEB Cost equals the Annual Required Contribution when the
Net OPEB Obligation at the beginning of the year is zero.
7.75% 7.25% Annual OPEB Cost
(Amounts in 000’s) 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14
Annual Required Contribution $ 13,603 $ 14,378 $ 14,845
Interest on Net OPEB Obligation (1,781) (1,687) (1,705)
Amortization of Net OPEB Obligation 1,483 1,451 1,498
Annual OPEB Cost 13,305 14,141 14,638
Amortization Period 28 Yrs 27 Yrs 26 Yrs
The City’s expected Net OPEB Obligations for 2011/12, 2012/13 and 2013/14 are:
7.75% 7.25% Estimated Net OPEB Obligation
(Amounts in 000’s) 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14
Net OPEB Obligation (Asset) at Begin. of Yr $ (22,977) $ (23,275) $ (23,511)
Annual OPEB Cost 13,305 14,141 14,638
Estimated Contributions 13,603 14,378 14,845
Net OPEB Obligation (Asset) at End of Yr (23,275) (23,511) (23,718)
The City’s actual June 30, 2012, June 20, 2013 and June 30, 2014 Net OPEB Obligations will differ from
those shown above because actual contributions may differ from those estimated.
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City of Palo Alto Retiree Healthcare Plan
January 1, 2011 & June 30, 2011 Actuarial Valuations Executive Summary
Page 4
October 11, 2011
Projection: The following table shows the projected Net OPEB Obligation, Annual Required
Contribution, Annual OPEB Contribution, and City Contribution (including benefit payments paid
directly by the City) over the next 10 years.
Full ARC Pre-Funding Projection
7.25% Discount Rate1
(Amounts in 000’s)
Contribution Fiscal
Year
Ending
Begin
Year
NOO ARC
Annual
OPEB
Cost
(AOC)
Benefit
Pmts
Pre-
Funding
Total
Contrib Payroll
Contrib
% of
Payroll
2012 $(22,977) $13,603 $13,305 $8,438 $5,165 $13,603 $80,664 16.9%
2013 (23,275) 14,378 14,141 8,988 5,390 14,378 83,285 17.3%
2014 (23,511) 14,845 14,638 9,986 4,859 14,845 85,992 17.3%
2015 (23,718) 15,327 15,155 10,929 4,398 15,327 88,787 17.3%
2016 (23,891) 15,825 15,690 11,945 3,880 15,825 91,672 17.3%
2017 (24,026) 16,340 16,247 12,940 3,400 16,340 94,652 17.3%
2018 (24,119) 16,871 16,825 13,832 3,039 16,871 97,728 17.3%
2019 (24,165) 17,419 17,425 14,692 2,727 17,419 100,904 17.3%
2020 (24,159) 17,985 18,049 15,574 2,412 17,985 104,183 17.3%
2021 (24,095) 18,570 18,697 16,460 2,110 18,570 107,569 17.3%
DEFINITIONS AND ASSUMPTIONS
Present Value of Benefits: When an actuary prepares an actuarial valuation, he or she first gathers
participant data (active employees, retirees, and beneficiaries) as of the valuation date. Using this data
and appropriate actuarial assumptions, the actuary projects the future benefit payments. The actuarial
assumptions estimate when employees will retire, terminate, die or become disabled, as well as salary
increases, inflation, and net investment earnings. The expected future benefit payments are discounted
back to the valuation date using the expected net investment return or discount rate. This discounted
value is the Present Value of Benefits. It represents the funds the plan needs as of the valuation date to
pay all expected future benefits if all assumptions are realized and no additional contributions are made
by the City. The City’s January 1, 2011 and June 30, 2011 Present Value of Benefits were $204.3 million
and $219.2 million, respectively.
Actuarial Accrued Liability: The Actuarial Accrued Liability is the portion of the Present Value of
Benefits that has been allocated to prior service through the valuation date. The City’s January 1, 2011
and June 30, 2011 Actuarial Accrued Liabilities were $170.0 million and $179.9 million, respectively
Normal Cost: The Normal Cost is the portion of the Present Value of Benefits allocated to the current
fiscal year. The plan’s Normal Costs for the 2011/12 and 2012/13 fiscal years are $4.9 million and $5.6
million, respectively.
1 Fiscal year ending 2012 based on prior valuation with 7.75% discount rate.
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City of Palo Alto Retiree Healthcare Plan
January 1, 2011 & June 30, 2011 Actuarial Valuations Executive Summary
Page 5
October 11, 2011
Actuarial Cost Method: The actuarial cost method determines how benefits are allocated to each year of
service. It has no effect on the Present Value of Benefits but has significant effect on the Actuarial
Accrued Liability and Normal Cost. The City’s January 1, 2011 and June 30, 2011 retiree healthcare
valuations were prepared using the Entry Age Normal cost method. Under the Entry Age Normal cost
method, the Plan’s Normal Cost is developed as a level percent of payroll over the participants’ working
lifetimes.
Actuarial Assumptions: Under GASB 45, an actuary must follow current actuarial standards of practice.
These standards generally call for the use of explicit assumptions which means that each individual
assumption must represent the actuary's best estimate for that assumption.
For the January 1, 2011 valuation, a discount rate of 7.75% was used, as required by CalPERS for plans
funded in the CERBT. In March 2011, the CalPERS’ Board approved the following changes to the CERBT:
created 3 different asset allocation strategies, each with different expected returns and volatility,
revised the discount rate assumption from a mandated rate (7.75%) to provide agencies and their
actuaries with the flexibility to select the discount rate (up to a maximum rate based on the selected
asset allocation).
For each investment option, CalPERS’ maximum discount rate is the median return2, with lower rates also
being acceptable. The following table shows CERBT target asset allocation strategies and CalPERS
maximum discount rates:
Option 1 Option 2 Option 3
Asset Allocation
Global Equity 66.0% 50.1% 31.6%
Global Real Estate 8.0% 8.0% 8.0%
Commodities 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
Inflation Linked Bonds 5.0% 15.0% 15.0%
U.S. Nominal Bonds 18.0% 23.9% 42.4%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Maximum Discount Rate 7.61% 7.06% 6.39%
Bartel Associates recommends a lower discount rate than the maximum to build in some level of
conservatism, so the assumption is expected to be realized (or exceeded) approximately 55% to 60% of
the time. This results in the following discount rates:
Option 1 Option 2 Option 3
≈60% Realization 7.00% 6.50% 6.00%
≈55% Realization 7.25% 6.75% 6.25%
For the June 30, 2011 actuarial valuation, the City chose the Option 1 asset allocation strategy, and agreed
that it would be prudent to build in a margin for conservatism when choosing a discount rate. The discount
rate for the June 30, 2011 valuation is 7.25%, which represents an estimated 55% confidence level that
actual future returns will be at least that high. The change in discount rate from 7.75% to 7.25% between
2 The median return represents the return at which ½ of the returns are expected to be higher and ½ lower.
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City of Palo Alto Retiree Healthcare Plan
January 1, 2011 & June 30, 2011 Actuarial Valuations Executive Summary
Page 6
October 11, 2011
these two valuations results in a $10.6 million actuarial loss.
The January 1, 2009 Milliman valuation used actual premiums for 2009, and then used a healthcare inflation
rate of 6.5% from 2010-2014, 6.0% from 2015-2017, and 5.85% for each year thereafter. In the January 1,
2011 valuation, actual premiums were used for 2011 and 2012. The healthcare inflation rate for non-
Medicare eligible participants starts at 9.0% (the increase in 2013 premiums over 2012 premiums) and
grades down to 5% after 8 years. The healthcare inflation rate for Medicare eligible participants starts 0.4%
higher and also grades down to 5% after 8 years. This change in medical trend leads to a $4.8 million
increase in the Actuarial Accrued Liability. This is partially offset by a $3.9 million gain, because of the
difference between actual 2011 and 2012 premiums and projected 2011 and 2012 premiums from the
January 1, 2009 valuation.
A 2% load was added in the January 1, 2011 valuation, to take into account that recent PEMHCA PPO
premium increases are believed to be below per capita claims increases. This load results in a $3.4 million
increase in the Actuarial Accrued Liability.
Retirement, disability, termination, and mortality assumptions were changed from the CalPERS 97-02
Experience Study in the January 1, 2009 valuation to the CalPERS 97-07 Experience Study in the January 1,
2011 and June 30, 2011 valuations. This change results in a $7.9 million increase in the Actuarial Accrued
Liability.
Another key January 1, 2011 valuation assumption change is the assumed medical plan at retirement. We
believe the 2009 valuation assumed each active participant remained in the same plan at retirement and
Medicare eligibility (at age 65). The January 1, 2011 valuation assumes percentages, as shown below, based
upon actual participation of current retirees, which differs substantially from the participation of current
actives. This change increased the Actuarial Accrued Liability by approximately $7.7 million.
Medical Plan at Retirement
Miscellaneous Safety
<65 65+ <65 65+
Blue Shield 35% 20% 35% 20%
Kaiser 25% 25% 25% 25%
PERS Choice 30% 20% 20% 20%
PERSCare 10% 35% 10% 35%
PORAC 0% 0% 10% 0%
A final key assumption change between the January 1, 2009 valuation and the January 1, 2011 valuation is
the Medicare eligibility rate. The 2011 valuation assumes 80% of Miscellaneous actives and 90% of Safety
actives hired prior to 4/1/86 will be eligible for Medicare, and all actives hired after 4/1/86 will be eligible
for Medicare. Similarly, 90% of current retirees under the age of 65 are assumed to be eligible for Medicare.
These assumptions produce an approximate increase in the Actuarial Accrued Liability of $2.6 million.
The City’s introduction of sharing of future premium cost increases for Management/Confidential, SEIU
and UMPAPA for those retiring after April 1, 2011 has led to a $14.1 million decrease in the Actuarial
Accrued Liability.
The following table shows changes, actual and expected, from the January 1, 2009 valuation to the
January 1, 2011 valuation and, subsequently to the June 30, 2011 valuation:
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City of Palo Alto Retiree Healthcare Plan
January 1, 2011 & June 30, 2011 Actuarial Valuations Executive Summary
Page 7
October 11, 2011
Changes From January 1, 2009 Valuation to January 1, 2011 Valuation
AAL (AVA) UAAL
Actual 1/1/09 $129,661 $(24,616) $105,045
Expected 6/30/11 150,971 (42,322) 108,649
Assumption Changes
Medical Trend 4,840 4,840
New CalPERS Decrements 7,916 7,916
Actuarial Load 3,421 3,421
Medical Plan at Retirement 7,740 7,740
Medicare Eligibility 2,625 2,625
Asset Smoothing 4,552 4,552
Contribution Loss (2,452) (2,452)
Plan Change – Cost Sharing (14,194) (14,194)
Experience (Gains)/Losses
Caps/Premiums < Expected (3,917) (3,917)
New Retirees 2,700 2,700
Demographic & Other 12,383 - 12,383
Total (Gain)/Loss 23,514 2,100 25,614
Projected 6/30/11 174,485 (40,222) 134,263
Changes From January 1, 2011 Valuation to June 30, 2011 Valuation
AAL (AVA) UAAL
Actual 1/1/11 $169,979 $(35,294) $134,685
Projected 6/30/11 174,485 (40,222) 134,263
Expected 6/30/12 182,840 (49,279) 133,561
Assumption Changes
Discount Rate 10,613 10,613
Experience (Gains)/Losses
Demographic & Other (3,510) (3,510)
Total (Gain)/Loss 7,103 - 7,103
Projected 6/30/12 189,943 (49,279) 140,663
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City of Palo Alto Retiree Healthcare Plan
January 1, 2011 & June 30, 2011 Actuarial Valuations Executive Summary
Page 8
October 11, 2011
RETIREE HEALTHCARE BENEFITS
Eligibility Retire directly from the City under CalPERS (age 50 and 5 years of
CalPERS service or disability)
Retiree Medical
(Hired<1/1/043) Retired < 1/1/074
Full employee premium and percentage of dependent premium (90% in
2011, 95% in 2012, 100% in 2013+)
Retired > 1/1/074
Same as above but premium limited to 2nd most expensive Basic
medical plan in the Bay Area Region
For non-Safety – Mgmt/Conf, SEIU and UMPAPA
Retired > 4/1/115, all premium increases starting 1/1/11 shared evenly
between City and employee, up to 10%
Retiree Medical
(Hired>1/1/046) Vesting schedule (based on all CalPERS Service)7:
Years of Service %
< 10 0%
10 50%
↓ ↓
> 20 100%
Vesting applies to 100/90 formula amounts:
2011 2012
Single $ 542 $ 566
2-Party 1,030 1,074
Family 1,326 1,382
Police and Fire with 20 years City service – do not need to retire directly
from City
For Mgmt/Conf, SEIU and UMPAPA Retired > 4/1/118, all premium
increases starting in 1/1/11 shared evenly between City and employee, up
to 10%
Dental, Vision &
Life
None
3 1/1/05 for SEIU and 1/1/06 for PAPOA
4 1/1/08 for PAPOA 5 2/1/10 for SEIU 6 1/1/05 for SEIU and 1/1/06 for PAPOA
7 Minimum 5 years City Service. 100% vested for disability retirement
8 2/1/10 for SEIU
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City of Palo Alto Retiree Healthcare Plan
January 1, 2011 & June 30, 2011 Actuarial Valuations Executive Summary
Page 9
October 11, 2011
Surviving Spouse
Benefit
100% of retiree benefit continues to surviving spouse if retiree elects
CalPERS survivor allowance
Benefit Changes
from Prior
Valuation
New Benefit Provision: cost sharing of future premium increases for
Mgmt/Conf, SEIU and UMPAPA retiring after 4/1/2011
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CITY OF PALO ALTO
RETIREE HEALTHCARE PLAN
January 1, 2011 and June 30, 2011
GASB 45 Actuarial Valuations
Revised Preliminary Results
Presented by John E. Bartel, President
Prepared by Deanna Van Valer, Assistant Vice President & Actuary
Adam Zimmerer, Actuarial Analyst
Bartel Associates, LLC
October 11, 2011
Agenda
O:\Clients\City of Palo Alto\OPEB\2011 val\Reports\BA PaloAltoCi 11-10-11 OPEB 6-30-11 Revised Preliminary Val Results.doc
Topic Page
Benefit Summary 1
Participant Statistics 5
Actuarial Assumptions Highlights 9
Actuarial Methods 15
Assets 17
Results – January 1, 2011 Valuation 19
Results – June 30, 2011 Valuation 29
CERBT Investment Options 41
Bartel Associates GASB 45 Database 43
Other Issues 46
Exhibits 48
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BENEFIT SUMMARY
Eligibility Retire directly from the City under CalPERS (age 50 and 5 years of
CalPERS service or disability)
Medical
Provider
CalPERS health plans (PEMHCA)
Non-Safety PEMHCA resolution provides only for PEMHCA
minimum (additional benefits paid by City)
Retiree Medical
(Hired<1/1/041)
Retired < 1/1/072
Full employee premium and percentage of dependent premium
(90% in 2011, 95% in 2012, 100% in 2013+)
Retired > 1/1/072
Same as above but premium limited to 2nd most expensive Basic
medical plan in the Bay Area Region
For non-Safety – Mgmt/Conf, SEIU and UMPAPA
Retired > 4/1/113, all premium increases starting 1/1/11 shared
evenly between City and employee, up to 10%
1 1/1/05 for SEIU and 1/1/06 for PAPOA 2 1/1/08 for PAPOA 3 2/1/10 for SEIU
October 11, 2011 2
BENEFIT SUMMARY
Retiree Medical
(Hired>1/1/044)
Vesting schedule (based on all CalPERS Service)5:
Years of Service %
< 10 0%
10 50%
↓ ↓
> 20 100%
Vesting applies to 100/90 formula amounts:
2011 2012
Single $ 542 $ 566
2-Party 1,030 1,074
Family 1,326 1,382
Police and Fire with 20 years City service – do not need to retire
directly from City
For Mgmt/Conf, SEIU and UMPAPA Retired > 4/1/116, all
premium increases starting in 1/1/11 shared evenly between City
and employee, up to 10%
4 1/1/05 for SEIU and 1/1/06 for PAPOA 5 Minimum 5 years City Service. 100% vested for disability retirement 6 2/1/10 for SEIU
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October 11, 2011 3
BENEFIT SUMMARY
Dental, Vision
& Life
None
Surviving
Spouse Benefit
100% of retiree benefit continues to surviving spouse if retiree
elects CalPERS survivor allowance
Benefit
Changes from
Prior Valuation
New Benefit Provision: cost sharing of future premium increases
for Mgmt/Conf, SEIU and UMPAPA retiring after 4/1/2011
Pay-As-You-
Go ($000s)
FY 2011/12 (Est) $8,142
FY 2010/11 $6,216
FY 2009/10 $5,519
FY 2008/09 $5,204
FY 2007/08 $4,646
October 11, 2011 4
BENEFIT SUMMARY
Implied
Subsidy
Non-Medicare eligible retirees pay active rates instead of actual cost
Active employee premiums subsidize retiree cost
Single Retiree Medical Cost
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65
Age
Mo
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C
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PremiumMale CostFemale Cost
GASB 45 includes active “implied subsidy” with retiree cost
Community rated plans not required to value implied subsidy
PEMHCA is a community rated plan for most employers
Valuation does not include an implied subsidy
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October 11, 2011 5
PARTICIPANT STATISTICS
Participant Statistics
June 30, 2011
7 1 retiree with missing birth date assumed to retire at average retirement age 8 Excludes 3 retirees with missing retirement date
Miscellaneous Police Fire Total
Actives
Count 737 82 104 923
Average Age 45.7 38.2 43.4 44.7
Average City Service 10.4 10.8 14.0 10.8
Average PERS Service 13.8 11.4 15.0 13.7
Average Salary $78,762 $117,924 $112,185 $86,007
Total Salary (000’s) $58,047 $9,670 $11,667 $79,384
Retirees:
Count 659 87 114 860
Average Age7 67.5 63.0 67.2 67.0
Average Retirement Age8 57.2 47.9 52.1 55.5
October 11, 2011 6
PARTICIPANT STATISTICS
Participant Statistics9
January 1, 2009
9 From 1/1/09 Milliman report
Miscellaneous Police Fire Total
Actives
Count n/a n/a n/a 955
Average Age n/a n/a n/a 45.3
Average City Service n/a n/a n/a 11.2
Average Salary n/a n/a n/a $103,602
Total Salary (000’s) n/a n/a n/a $98,940
Retirees:
Count n/a n/a n/a 710
Average Age n/a n/a n/a 67.2
Average Retirement Age n/a n/a n/a n/a
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October 11, 2011 7
PARTICIPANT STATISTICS
Medical Plan Participation
Non-Waived Participants
Retirees
Medical Plan Actives < 65 ≥ 65 Total
Blue Shield 44% 34% 21% 27%
Blue Shield NetValue 0% 0% 0% 0%
Kaiser 34% 25% 24% 25%
PERS Choice 13% 21% 18% 19%
PERSCare 0% 11% 36% 25%
PORAC 9% 10% 1% 5%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
October 11, 2011 8
PARTICIPANT STATISTICS
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ACTUARIAL ASSUMPTIONS HIGHLIGHTS
January 1, 2009 Valuation10 January 1, 2011 &
June 30, 2011 Valuations
Valuation Date January 1, 2009
Fiscal Years 2009/10 &
2010/11 ARCs (end of year)
January 1, 2011
Fiscal Year 2011/12 ARC (end
of year)
June 30, 2011
Fiscal Years 2012/13 &
2013/14 ARCs (end of year)
Funding Policy Full Pre-funding through
CalPERS trust (CERBT)
Same
Discount Rate 7.75% 1/1/11 – 7.75%
6/30/11 – 7.25%
Payroll
Increases
Aggregate Increases – 3.25%
Merit Increases – CalPERS
1997-2002 Experience Study
Aggregate Increases – 3.25%
Merit Increases – CalPERS
1997-2007 Experience Study
10 From 1/1/09 Milliman report
October 11, 2011 10
ACTUARIAL ASSUMPTIONS HIGHLIGHTS
January 1, 2009 Valuation10 January 1, 2011 &
June 30, 2011 Valuations
Medical Trend
Year
Increase from
Prior Year
2009 Premiums
2010 6.50%
2011 6.50%
2012 6.50%
2013 6.50%
2014 6.50%
2015 6.00%
2016 6.00%
2017 6.00%
2018+ 5.85%
Increase from Prior Year
Year Non-Medicare Medicare
2009 n/a
2010 n/a
2011 Premiums
2012 Premiums
2013 9.0% 9.4%
2014 8.5% 8.9%
2015 8.0% 8.3%
2016 7.5% 7.8%
↓ ↓
2021+ 5.0% 5.0%
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October 11, 2011 11
ACTUARIAL ASSUMPTIONS HIGHLIGHTS
January 1, 2009 Valuation10 January 1, 2011 &
June 30, 2011 Valuations
Actuarial Load n/a 2.0% load
PEMHCA PPO premium
increases below per capita
claims increases
Retirement,
Mortality,
Termination,
Disability
CalPERS 1997-2002
Experience Study
Misc Fire Police
Benefit 2.7%@55 3%@50 3%@50
CalPERS 1997-2007
Experience Study
Misc Fire Police
Benefit 2.7%@55 3%@50 3%@50
2%@6011
ERA 57.5 54.5 54.0
Participation at
Retirement
n/a DOH < 1/1/04: 100%
DOH > 1/1/04: 95%
Employees with cost sharing:
reduce above %’s by 5%
11 Applies to employees hired after July 17, 2010
October 11, 2011 12
ACTUARIAL ASSUMPTIONS HIGHLIGHTS
January 1, 2009 Valuation10 January 1, 2011 &
June 30, 2011 Valuations
Medical Plan at
Retirement
n/a Miscellaneous:
<65 65+
Blue Shield 35% 20%
Kaiser 25% 25%
PERS Choice 30% 20%
PERSCare 10% 35%
Safety:
<65 65+
Blue Shield 35% 20%
Kaiser 25% 25%
PERS Choice 20% 20%
PERSCare 10% 35%
PORAC 10% 0%
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October 11, 2011 13
ACTUARIAL ASSUMPTIONS HIGHLIGHTS
January 1, 2009 Valuation10 January 1, 2011 &
June 30, 2011 Valuations
Medicare
Eligible Rate
n/a Actives hired < 4/1/86:
Miscellaneous – 80%
Safety – 90%
Actives hired > 4/1/86: 100%
Retirees < 65: 90%
Everyone eligible for
Medicare will elect Part B
coverage
Missing PERS
Group
n/a Retirees missing PERS group
assumed to be Misc unless
fund designates Police or Fire
October 11, 2011 14
ACTUARIAL ASSUMPTIONS HIGHLIGHTS
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ACTUARIAL METHODS
Method January 1, 2009 Valuation12 January 1, 2011 &
June 30, 2011 Valuations
Cost Method Entry Age Normal Level % of
Pay
Same
Unfunded
Liability
Amortization
30 years open period 28 years (closed period) Fresh
Start for total 6/30/2011 UAAL
(27 years remaining on 6/30/12)
15 years (closed period) for
future gains and losses
Maximum 30-year combined
period
12 From 1/1/09 report by Milliman.
October 11, 2011 16
ACTUARIAL METHODS
Method January 1, 2009 Valuation12 January 1, 2011 &
June 30, 2011 Valuations
Actuarial
Value of
Assets
Market Value of Assets Investment gains and losses
spread over a 5-year rolling
period
Not less than 80% nor more than
120% of market value
Same as CalPERS, but shorter
period
Implied
Subsidy
Employer cost for allowing retirees to participate at active rates
Community rated plans are not required to value an implied subsidy
if active rates are independent of number of retirees
PEMHCA is a community rated plan for most employers
Valuation does not include an implied subsidy
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October 11, 2011 17
ASSETS
Market Value of Plan Assets
(amounts in 000’s)
2009 2010
1/1/11-
6/30/11
Projected
2011/12
MVA (Beg. of Year) $ 24,616 $ 32,042 $ 40,213 $ 44,774
Contributions 700 3,532 2,448 5,165
Benefit Payments13 - - - -
Admin. Expenses (23) (34) (41) -
Investment Return 6,749 4,674 2,155 3,24614
MVA (End of Year) 32,042 40,213 44,774 53,185
Approx. Annual Return 26.9% 13.7% 5.3% 7.3%
13 Benefit Payments made outside of trust by City. Refer to Slide 3 for fiscal year amounts. 14 Investment return based on 7.25% net of expenses
October 11, 2011 18
ASSETS
Actuarial Value of Plan Assets
(amounts in 000’s)
2009 2010
1/1/11-
6/30/11
Projected
2011/12
AVA (Beg. of Year) $ 24,616 $ 28,209 $ 35,294 $ 40,222
Contributions 700 3,532 2,448 5,165
Benefit Payments15 - - - -
Exp. Inv. Return 1,935 2,323 1,342 2,916
Exp. AVA (End of Year) 27,251 34,064 39,084 48,303
Preliminary AVA 28,209 35,294 40,222 49,279
Min AVA (80% MVA) 25,633 32,170 35,819 42,548
Max AVA (120% MVA) 38,450 48,255 53,729 63,822
AVA (End of Year) 28,209 35,294 40,222 49,279
Approx. Annual Return 11.6% 11.9% 7.0% 9.7%
15 Benefit Payments made outside of trust by City. Refer to Slide 3 for fiscal year amounts.
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RESULTS – JANUARY 1, 2011 VALUATION
Funded Status – 7.75% Discount Rate
(Amounts in 000’s)
1/1/0916 1/1/11
Projected
6/30/11
Present Value of Benefits
Actives $ 78,831 $ 85,476
Retirees 78,384 118,800
Total 157,215 204,276
Actuarial Accrued Liability
Actives 51,277 51,179
Retirees 78,384 118,800
Total 129,661 169,979 $ 174,485
Actuarial Value of Assets (AVA) 24,616 35,294 40,222
Unfunded AAL 105,045 134,685 134,263
Funded Ratio 19% 21%
Normal Cost 3,478 4,937
Pay-As-You-Go Cost 6,075 8,438
16 From 1/1/09 report by Milliman.
October 11, 2011 20
RESULTS – JANUARY 1, 2011 VALUATION
Actuarial Gain/Loss – 7.75% Discount Rate
(000’s Omitted)
AAL (AVA) UAAL
Actual 1/1/09 $129,661 $(24,616) $105,045
Expected 6/30/11 150,971 (42,322) 108,649
Assumption Changes
Medical Trend 4,840 4,840
New CalPERS Decrements 7,916 7,916
Actuarial Load 3,421 3,421
Medical Plan at Retirement 7,740 7,740
Medicare Eligibility 2,625 2,625
Asset Smoothing 4,552 4,552
Contribution Loss (2,452) (2,452)
Plan Change – Cost Sharing (14,194) (14,194)
Experience (Gains)/Losses
Caps/Premiums < Expected (3,917) (3,917)
New Retirees 2,700 2,700
Demographic & Other 12,383 - 12,383
Total (Gain)/Loss 23,514 2,100 25,614
Projected 6/30/11 174,485 (40,222) 134,263
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RESULTS – JANUARY 1, 2011 VALUATION
Annual Required Contribution (ARC) – 7.75% Discount Rate
(Amounts in 000’s)
1/1/09 Valuation 1/1/11 Valuation
Annual Required Contribution 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
ARC - $
Normal Cost $ 3,478 $ 3,591 $ 4,937
UAAL Amortization 6,308 6,757 8,666
Total 9,786 10,348 13,603
Projected Payroll 98,940 102,156 80,664
ARC - % Pay
Normal Cost 3.5% 3.5% 6.1%
UAAL Amortization 6.4% 6.6% 10.7%
Total 9.9% 10.1% 16.9%
October 11, 2011 22
RESULTS – JANUARY 1, 2011 VALUATION
Estimated Net OPEB Obligation (NOO) Illustration – 7.75% Discount Rate
(Amounts in 000’s)
Estimated Net OPEB Obligation
(Asset)
CAFR
2009/10
Estimate
2010/11
Estimate
2011/12
NOO at Beginning of Year $(26,352) $(23,242) $(22,977)
Annual OPEB Cost
Annual Required Contribution 9,786 10,349 13,603
Interest on NOO (2,042) (1,801) (1,781)
NOO Adjustment 2,585 2,213 1,483
Annual OPEB Cost 10,329 10,760 13,306
Contributions
Benefit Payments Outside Trust17 5,519 6,216 8,438
Trust Funding 1,70018 4,280 5,165
Total Contributions 7,219 10,496 13,603
NOO at End of Year (23,242) (22,977) (23,275)
17 Estimated cash payments shown for years after 2010/11. Actual cash payments should be used for OPEB footnote. 18 Shortly after year end, the City contributed another $1.832 million to the trust
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RESULTS – JANUARY 1, 2011 VALUATION
Amortization Bases – 7.75% Discount Rate
(000’s Omitted)
1/1/2009 Valuation 1/1/2011 Valuation
6/30/2009 6/30/2010 6/30/2011
Outstanding Balance
2009 UAAL $ 105,045 $ 106,878 $ n/a
2010 Gains & Losses - 2,567 n/a
2011 Fresh Start UAAL - - 134,263
Total 105,045 109,445 134,263
October 11, 2011 24
RESULTS – JANUARY 1, 2011 VALUATION
Amortization Payments – 7.75% Discount Rate
(000’s Omitted)
1/1/2009 Valuation 1/1/2011 Valuation
2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
Amortization Payment - $
2009 UAAL19 $ 6,308 $ 6,513 $ n/a
2010 Gains & Losses - 244 n/a
2011 Fresh Start UAAL20 - - 8,666
Total 6,308 6,757 8,666
19 Amortized over 30 years beginning 2009/10 20 Amortized over 28 years beginning 2011/12
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RESULTS – JANUARY 1, 2011 VALUATION
Actuarial Obligations – 7.75% Discount Rate
January 1, 2011
(Amounts in 000’s)
Benefits <
Age 65
Benefits >
Age 65 Total
Present Value of Benefits
Actives $ 45,464 $ 40,013 $ 85,476
Retirees 37,577 81,223 118,800
Total 83,041 121,236 204,276
Actuarial Accrued Liability
Actives 26,106 25,074 51,179
Retirees 37,577 81,223 118,800
Total 63,683 106,297 169,979
Normal Cost 2,711 2,226 4,937
October 11, 2011 26
RESULTS – JANUARY 1, 2011 VALUATION
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October 11, 2011 27
RESULTS – JANUARY 1, 2011 VALUATION
Actuarial Obligations – 7.75% Discount Rate
January 1, 2011
(Amounts in 000’s)
Misc Police Fire Total
Present Value of Benefits
Actives $ 54,725 $ 12,832 $ 17,919 $ 85,476
Retirees 86,109 14,722 17,969 118,800
Total 140,834 27,554 35,888 204,276
Actuarial Accrued Liability
Actives 33,204 6,496 11,479 51,179
Retirees 86,109 14,722 17,969 118,800
Total 119,313 21,218 29,448 169,979
Actuarial Value of Assets21 24,774 4,406 6,114 35,294
Unfunded AAL 94,539 16,812 23,334 134,685
Normal Cost 3,381 719 836 4,937
Pay-As-You-Go Cost 6,285 935 1,218 8,438
21 Allocated in proportion to the Actuarial Accrued Liability.
October 11, 2011 28
RESULTS – JANUARY 1, 2011 VALUATION
Annual Required Contribution (ARC) – 7.75% Discount Rate
2011/12 Fiscal Year
(Amounts in 000’s)
Misc Police Fire Total
ARC - $
Normal Cost $ 3,381 $ 719 $ 836 $ 4,937
UAAL Amortization22 6,072 1,087 1,507 8,666
ARC 9,453 1,807 2,344 13,603
Projected Payroll 58,983 9,826 11,855 80,664
ARC - %
Normal Cost 5.7% 7.3% 7.1% 6.1%
UAAL Amortization 10.3% 11.1% 12.7% 10.7%
ARC 16.0% 18.4% 19.8% 16.9%
22 Allocated in proportion to the Actuarial Accrued Liability.
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RESULTS – JUNE 30, 2011 VALUATION
Actuarial Obligations
(Amounts in 000’s)
1/1/11 Valuation 6/30/11 Valuation
1/1/11
Projected
6/30/11 6/30/11
Projected
6/30/12
7.75% 7.25%
Present Value of Benefits
Actives $ 85,476 $ 96,769
Retirees 118,800 122,444
Total 204,276 219,213
Actuarial Accrued Liability
Actives 51,179 57,479
Retirees 118,800 122,444
Total 169,979 $ 174,485 179,923 $ 189,943
Actuarial Value of Assets 35,294 40,222 40,222 49,279
Unfunded AAL 134,685 134,263 139,701 140,663
Funded Ratio 21% 22%
Normal Cost 4,937 5,609
Pay-As-You-Go Cost 8,438 9,986
October 11, 2011 30
RESULTS – JUNE 30, 2011 VALUATION
Actuarial Gain/Loss
(000’s Omitted)
AAL (AVA) UAAL
Actual 1/1/11 $169,979 $(35,294) $134,685
Projected 6/30/11 174,485 (40,222) 134,263
Expected 6/30/12 182,840 (49,279) 133,561
Assumption Changes
Discount Rate 10,613 10,613
Experience (Gains)/Losses
Demographic & Other (3,510) (3,510)
Total (Gain)/Loss 7,103 - 7,103
Projected 6/30/12 189,943 (49,279) 140,663
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RESULTS – JUNE 30, 2011 VALUATION
Annual Required Contribution (ARC)
(Amounts in 000’s)
1/1/11 Valuation 6/30/11 Valuation
Annual Required Contribution 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14
7.75% 7.25%
ARC - $
Normal Cost $ 4,937 $ 5,609 $ 5,791
UAAL Amortization 8,666 8,769 9,054
Total 13,603 14,378 14,845
Projected Payroll 80,664 83,285 85,992
ARC - %Pay
Normal Cost 6.1% 6.7% 6.7%
UAAL Amortization 10.7% 10.6%10.6%
Total 16.9% 17.3% 17.3%
October 11, 2011 32
RESULTS – JUNE 30, 2011 VALUATION
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RESULTS – JUNE 30, 2011 VALUATION
Amortization Bases
(000’s Omitted)
1/1/2011 Valuation 6/30/2011 Valuation
6/30/2011 6/30/2012 6/30/2013
7.75% 7.25%
Outstanding Balance
2011 Fresh Start UAAL $ 134,263 $ 140,663 $ 142,093
Total 134,263 140,663 142,093
October 11, 2011 34
RESULTS – JUNE 30, 2011 VALUATION
Amortization Payments
(000’s Omitted)
1/1/2011 Valuation 6/30/2011 Valuation
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14
7.75% 7.25%
Amortization Payment - $
2011 Fresh Start UAAL23 $ 8,666 $ 8,769 $ 9,054
Total 8,666 8,769 9,054
23 Amortized over 28 years beginning 2011/12
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RESULTS – JUNE 30, 2011 VALUATION
Estimated Net OPEB Obligation (NOO) Illustration
(Amounts in 000’s)
1/1/11 Valuation 6/30/11 Valuation
Estimated Net OPEB Obligation
(Asset)
Estimate
2011/12
Estimate
2012/13
Estimate
2013/14
NOO at Beginning of Year $(22,977) $(23,275) $(23,511)
Annual OPEB Cost
Annual Required Contribution 13,603 14,378 14,845
Interest on NOO (1,781) (1,687) (1,705)
NOO Adjustment 1,483 1,451 1,498
Annual OPEB Cost 13,305 14,141 14,638
Contributions
Benefit Payments Outside Trust24 8,438 8,988 9,986
Trust Funding 5,165 5,390 4,859
Total Contributions 13,603 14,378 14,845
NOO at End of Year (23,275) (23,511) (23,718)
24 Estimated cash payments shown for all years. Actual cash payments should be used for OPEB footnote.
October 11, 2011 36
RESULTS – JUNE 30, 2011 VALUATION
Estimated Full ARC Funding Projection – 7.25% Discount Rate25
(Amounts in 000’s)
Contribution Fiscal
Year
End
Begin
Year
NOO ARC
Annual
OPEB
Cost
(AOC)
Benefit
Pmts
Pre-
Funding
Total
Contrib Pay
Contrib
% of
Payroll
2012 $(22,977) $13,603 $13,305 $8,438 $5,165 $13,603 $80,664 16.9%
2013 (23,275) 14,378 14,141 8,988 5,390 14,378 83,285 17.3%
2014 (23,511) 14,845 14,638 9,986 4,859 14,845 85,992 17.3%
2015 (23,718) 15,327 15,155 10,929 4,398 15,327 88,787 17.3%
2016 (23,891) 15,825 15,690 11,945 3,880 15,825 91,672 17.3%
2017 (24,026) 16,340 16,247 12,940 3,400 16,340 94,652 17.3%
2018 (24,119) 16,871 16,825 13,832 3,039 16,871 97,728 17.3%
2019 (24,165) 17,419 17,425 14,692 2,727 17,419 100,904 17.3%
2020 (24,159) 17,985 18,049 15,574 2,412 17,985 104,183 17.3%
2021 (24,095) 18,570 18,697 16,460 2,110 18,570 107,569 17.3%
25 Fiscal year ending 2012 based on prior valuation with 7.75% discount rate.
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RESULTS – JUNE 30, 2011 VALUATION
Actuarial Obligations – 7.25% Discount Rate
June 30, 2011
(Amounts in 000’s)
Benefits <
Age 65
Benefits >
Age 65 Total
Present Value of Benefits
Actives $ 49,568 $ 47,201 $ 96,769
Retirees 36,082 86,361 122,444
Total 85,650 133,562 219,213
Actuarial Accrued Liability
Actives 28,139 29,340 57,479
Retirees 36,082 86,361 122,444
Total 64,221 115,701 179,923
Normal Cost 2,978 2,631 5,609
October 11, 2011 38
RESULTS – JUNE 30, 2011 VALUATION
Actuarial Obligations – 7.25% Discount Rate
June 30, 2011
(Amounts in 000’s)
Misc Police Fire Total
Present Value of Benefits
Actives $ 61,777 $ 14,823 $ 20,168 $ 96,769
Retirees 88,563 15,240 18,641 122,444
Total 150,340 30,063 38,809 219,213
Actuarial Accrued Liability
Actives 37,268 7,445 12,766 57,479
Retirees 88,563 15,240 18,641 122,444
Total 125,831 22,685 31,407 179,923
Actuarial Value of Assets26 28,129 5,071 7,021 40,222
Unfunded AAL 97,702 17,614 24,386 139,701
Normal Cost 3,823 825 960 5,609
Pay-As-You-Go Cost 7,385 1,132 1,469 9,986
26 Allocated in proportion to the Actuarial Accrued Liability.
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October 11, 2011 39
RESULTS – JUNE 30, 2011 VALUATION
Annual Required Contribution (ARC) – 7.25% Discount Rate
2012/13 Fiscal Year
(Amounts in 000’s)
Misc Police Fire Total
ARC - $
Normal Cost $ 3,823 $ 825 $ 960 $ 5,609
UAAL Amortization27 6,111 1,116 1,541 8,769
ARC 9,934 1,941 2,501 14,378
Projected Payroll 60,900 10,145 12,240 83,285
ARC - %
Normal Cost 6.3% 8.1% 7.8% 6.7%
UAAL Amortization 10.0% 11.0% 12.6% 10.5%
ARC 16.3% 19.1% 20.4% 17.3%
27 Allocated in proportion to the Actuarial Accrued Liability.
October 11, 2011 40
RESULTS – JUNE 30, 2011 VALUATION
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October 11, 2011 41
CERBT INVESTMENT OPTIONS
Additional CERBT asset allocations and revised discount rate assumption
Agency selects one option effective July 1, 2011
Target asset allocations
Asset Classifications Option 1 Option 2 Option 3
Global Equity 66.0% 50.1% 31.6%
US Nominal Bonds 18.0% 23.9% 42.4%
REIT's 8.0% 8.0% 8.0%
U.S. Inflation Linked Bonds 5.0% 15.0% 15.0%
Commodities 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
CalPERS reported expected returns (20 year period):
Option 1 Option 2 Option 3
75% Confidence Limit28 5.80% 5.60% 5.25%
50% Confidence Limit 7.61% 7.06% 6.39%
25% Confidence Limit 9.43% 8.52% 7.47%
Standard Deviation 11.73% 9.46% 7.27%
28 Confidence Limits – Actual Return will exceed the given rate with indicated probabilities, rates vary by year.
October 11, 2011 42
CERBT INVESTMENT OPTIONS
CalPERS discount rate development:
1st 10 year expected returns – based on asset advisors 10 year projections
Significantly higher returns assumed after 10 years
based on long term historical returns
implies actuarial losses in 1st 10 years
achievable?
Requirement that discount rate cannot be greater than 50% confidence limit rate
Bartel Associates Recommendation: select rate at 55% or 60% confidence limit
Option 1 Option 2 Option 3
55% Confidence Limit
Discount Rate 7.25% 6.75% 6.25%
Maximum Discount Rate 7.61% 7.06% 6.39%
Margin for Adverse Deviation (0.36%) (0.31%) (0.14%)
60% Confidence Limit
Discount Rate 7.00% 6.50% 6.00%
Maximum Discount Rate 7.61% 7.06% 6.39%
Margin for Adverse Deviation (0.61%) (0.56%) (0.39%)
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October 11, 2011 43
BARTEL ASSOCIATES GASB 45 DATABASE
50% of 90% of 100% ofresults results results
are are arewithin within within
this this thisrange range range
0th Percentile
GASB 45
50th Percentile
100th Percentile
Sample Percentile Graph
Retiree Medical Benefits Comparison
95th Percentile
5th Percentile
75th Percentile
25th Percentile
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
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BARTEL ASSOCIATES GASB 45 DATABASE
Miscellaneous
NC ARC NC ARC
95th Percentile 11.7% 31.4% 11.9% 32.2%
75th Percentile 7.5% 19.4% 7.0% 20.5%
50th Percentile 3.6% 8.9% 2.9% 10.2%
25th Percentile 1.3% 3.3% 1.4% 3.6%
5th Percentile 0.6% 1.3% 0.7% 1.8%
Percent of Pay 6.3% 16.3% 8.0% 19.9%
Percentile 67% 67% 82% 73%
Safety
Discount Rate = 7.25%, Amortization Period = 27 Years
GASB 45
Retiree Medical Benefits Comparison
Normal Cost & Annual Required Contribution
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
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October 11, 2011 45
BARTEL ASSOCIATES GASB 45 DATABASE
95th Percentile 251% 275%
75th Percentile 151% 166%
50th Percentile 74% 87%
25th Percentile 23% 28%
5th Percentile 8% 12%
Percent of Pay 207% 242%
Percentile 89% 92%
Miscellaneous Safety
Discount Rate = 7.25%
GASB 45
Retiree Medical Benefits Comparison
Actuarial Accrued Liability
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
400%
450%
500%
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October 11, 2011 46
OTHER ISSUES
GASB Pension Accounting
Exposure Draft for pension accounting changes issued 7/8/2011:
Usually the last public document issued before issuing final statement
Similar views expected for OPEB
Comment deadline 9/30/11
Likely effective for 2013/14 fiscal year
Major issues:
Unfunded liability on balance sheet
Lower discount rate if funding less than ARC
Immediate recognition of:
Service & Interest Cost
Benefit changes
Inactive gains/losses & assumption changes
Deferred recognition of:
Active gains/losses & assumption changes, over (future working lifetime)
closed period
Asset gains/losses, over 5 years
Entry age normal cost method
National Health Care Reform – Too early to know impact
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October 11, 2011 47
OTHER ISSUES
Timing:
Present preliminary results September 26, 2011
Present revised preliminary results October 11, 2011
October 11, 2011 48
EXHIBITS
Topic Page
Premiums E- 1
Data Summary E- 3
Actuarial Assumptions E-29
Definitions E-36
2.b
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October 11, 2011 E-1
PREMIUMS
2011 PEMHCA Monthly Premiums
Bay Area
Non-Medicare Eligible Medicare Eligible
Medical Plan Single 2-Party Family Single 2-Party Family
Blue Shield $675.51 $1,351.02 $1,756.33 $337.88 $675.76 $1,013.64
Blue Shield NetValue 581.24 1,162.48 1,511.22 337.88 675.76 1,013.64
Kaiser 568.99 1,137.98 1,479.37 282.30 564.60 846.90
PERS Choice 563.40 1,126.80 1,464.84 375.88 751.76 1,127.64
PERS Select 492.68 985.36 1,280.97 375.88 751.76 1,127.64
PERSCare 893.95 1,787.90 2,324.27 433.66 867.32 1,300.98
PORAC 527.00 987.00 1,254.00 418.00 833.00 1,331.00
October 11, 2011 E-2
PREMIUMS
2012 PEMHCA Monthly Premiums
Bay Area
Non-Medicare Eligible Medicare Eligible
Medical Plan Single 2-Party Family Single 2-Party Family
Blue Shield Access+ $711.10 $1,422.20 $1,848.86 $337.99 $675.98 $1,013.97
Blue Shield NetValue 611.59 1,223.18 1,590.13 337.99 675.98 1,013.97
Kaiser 610.44 1,220.88 1,587.14 277.81 555.62 833.43
PERS Choice 574.15 1,148.30 1,492.79 383.44 766.88 1,150.32
PERS Select 487.39 974.78 1,267.21 383.44 766.88 1,150.32
PERSCare 1,029.23 2,058.46 2,676.00 432.43 864.86 1,297.29
PORAC 556.00 1,041.00 1,323.00 418.00 833.00 1,331.00
2.b
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October 11, 2011 E-3
DATA SUMMARY
Active Medical Coverage
Bay Area Plans
Medical Plan Single 2-Party Family Waived Total
Blue Shield 90 68 210 - 368
Blue Shield NetValue 2 1 1 - 4
Kaiser 74 65 151 - 290
PERS Choice 22 39 47 - 108
PERSCare - - 1 - 1
PORAC 12 7 54 - 73
Waived - - - 79 79
Total 200 180 464 79 923
October 11, 2011 E-4
DATA SUMMARY
Retiree Medical Coverage - Under Age 65
Plan Region Single 2-Party Family Total
Bay Area 48 42 25 115
Los Angeles 1 - - 1
Northern CA - 1 1 2
Sacramento 4 3 1 8
Blue Shield
Southern CA - 1 - 1
Bay Area 37 26 11 74
Northern CA 2 1 3 6
Out of State - 5 1 6
Sacramento 3 3 - 6
Kaiser
Southern CA 2 1 1 4
Bay Area 22 19 7 48
Northern CA 3 2 - 5
Out of State 7 13 2 22
Sacramento 1 - - 1
PERS Choice
Southern CA 2 - - 2
Bay Area 11 5 2 18
Northern CA 1 2 - 3
Out of State 13 2 - 15
Sacramento 2 - 1 3
PERSCare
Southern CA 1 - - 1
PORAC 10 14 12 36
Total 170 140 67 377
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October 11, 2011 E-5
DATA SUMMARY
Retiree Medical Coverage - Over Age 65
Plan Region Single 2-Party Family Total
Bay Area 53 40 2 95
Northern CA - 2 - 2
Sacramento 1 - - 1
Blue Shield
Southern CA 2 3 - 5
Blue Shield NetValue Southern CA 1 - - 1
Bay Area 44 42 6 92
Northern CA 2 2 - 4
Out of State 4 3 - 7
Sacramento 6 6 1 13
Kaiser
Southern CA 1 - - 1
Bay Area 14 21 - 35
Los Angeles 1 - - 1
Northern CA 3 5 1 9
Out of State 12 17 2 31
Sacramento 1 3 - 4
PERS Choice
Southern CA 4 1 - 5
Bay Area 47 34 - 81
Northern CA 9 7 - 16
Out of State 41 19 2 62
Sacramento 3 4 - 7
PERSCare
Southern CA 5 3 - 8
PORAC 1 1 1 3
Total 255 213 15 483
October 11, 2011 E-6
DATA SUMMARY
Medical Plan Participation
Non-Waived Participants
Retirees
Medical Plan Actives < 65 ≥ 65 Total
Blue Shield 44% 34% 21% 27%
Blue Shield NetValue 0% 0% 0% 0%
Kaiser 34% 25% 24% 25%
PERS Choice 13% 21% 18% 19%
PERSCare 0% 11% 36% 25%
PORAC 9% 10% 1% 5%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
2.b
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October 11, 2011 E-7
DATA SUMMARY
Retiree Medical Coverage by Age Group
Miscellaneous
Age Single 2-Party Family Total
Under 50 2 - 2 4
50-54 20 17 8 45
55-59 55 38 17 110
60-64 61 62 14 137
65-69 58 68 5 131
70-74 55 41 1 97
75-79 32 23 - 55
80-84 24 15 1 40
Over 85 28 12 - 40
Total 335 276 48 659
Average Age 68.7 67.4 59.5 67.5
October 11, 2011 E-8
DATA SUMMARY
Retiree Age Distribution
Miscellaneous
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
<50 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 ≥85
Age
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October 11, 2011 E-9
DATA SUMMARY
Retiree Medical Coverage by Age Group
Police
Age Single 2-Party Family Total
Under 50 5 3 1 9
50-54 6 3 4 13
55-59 8 5 4 17
60-64 8 6 2 16
65-69 6 3 1 10
70-74 5 1 - 6
75-79 4 2 - 6
80-84 4 4 - 8
Over 85 2 - - 2
Total 48 27 12 87
Average Age 64.8 62.7 56.5 63.0
October 11, 2011 E-10
DATA SUMMARY
Retiree Age Distribution
Police
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
<50 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 ≥85
Age
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October 11, 2011 E-11
DATA SUMMARY
Retiree Medical Coverage by Age Group
Fire
Age Single 2-Party Family Total
Under 50 1 1 3 5
50-54 1 2 10 13
55-59 5 2 4 11
60-64 7 8 3 18
65-69 4 8 2 14
70-74 11 16 - 27
75-79 5 8 - 13
80-84 4 4 - 8
Over 85 4 1 - 5
Total 42 50 22 114
Average Age 70.6 69.8 55.0 67.2
October 11, 2011 E-12
DATA SUMMARY
Retiree Age Distribution
Fire
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
<50 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 ≥85
Age
Nu
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October 11, 2011 E-13
DATA SUMMARY
Actives by Age and Service
Miscellaneous
City Service
Age < 1 1-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 ≥ 25 Total
< 25 1 2 1 - - - - 4
25-29 9 22 11 2 - - - 44
30-34 7 39 23 16 4 - - 89
35-39 6 25 25 23 3 - - 82
40-44 3 24 21 31 14 3 - 96
45-49 4 31 17 46 34 23 5 160
50-54 7 20 23 31 23 15 14 133
55-59 1 13 11 25 11 10 4 75
60-64 - 8 4 13 8 7 - 40
≥ 65 - - 2 3 4 1 4 14
Total 38 184 138 190 101 59 27 737
October 11, 2011 E-14
DATA SUMMARY
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October 11, 2011 E-15
DATA SUMMARY
Active Age Distribution
Miscellaneous
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
<25 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-65 ≥65
Age
Nu
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October 11, 2011 E-16
DATA SUMMARY
Active Service Distribution
Miscellaneous
0
50
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150
200
250
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 >25
Service
Nu
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October 11, 2011 E-17
DATA SUMMARY
Actives by Age and Service
Police
City Service
Age < 1 1-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 ≥ 25 Total
< 25 - 2 - - - - - 2
25-29 1 6 2 - - - - 9
30-34 1 10 9 1 - - - 21
35-39 - 3 6 7 2 1 - 19
40-44 - - 3 1 4 1 - 9
45-49 - - 1 2 6 4 4 17
50-54 - 1 1 1 - 1 1 5
55-59 - - - - - - - -
60-64 - - - - - - - -
≥ 65 - - - - - - - -
Total 2 22 22 12 12 7 5 82
October 11, 2011 E-18
DATA SUMMARY
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October 11, 2011 E-19
DATA SUMMARY
Active Age Distribution
Police
0
5
10
15
20
25
<25 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-65 ≥65
Age
Nu
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October 11, 2011 E-20
DATA SUMMARY
Active Service Distribution
Police
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 >25
Service
Nu
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DATA SUMMARY
Actives by Age and Service
Fire
City Service
Age < 1 1-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 ≥ 25 Total
< 25 1 2 - - - - - 3
25-29 - 3 2 - - - - 5
30-34 2 3 4 - - - - 9
35-39 - 4 4 10 1 - - 19
40-44 - - 4 9 3 1 - 17
45-49 - 1 4 7 6 13 2 33
50-54 - - - 2 - 5 7 14
55-59 - - - 1 - - 1 2
60-64 - - - - - 1 1 2
≥ 65 - - - - - - - -
Total 3 13 18 29 10 20 11 104
October 11, 2011 E-22
DATA SUMMARY
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October 11, 2011 E-23
DATA SUMMARY
Active Age Distribution
Fire
0
5
10
15
20
25
<25 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-65 ≥65
Age
Nu
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October 11, 2011 E-24
DATA SUMMARY
Active Service Distribution
Fire
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 >25
Service
Nu
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October 11, 2011 E-25
DATA SUMMARY
Actives by Age and Service
Total
City Service
Age < 1 1-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 ≥ 25 Total
< 25 2 6 1 - - - - 9
25-29 10 31 15 2 - - - 58
30-34 10 52 36 17 4 - - 119
35-39 6 32 35 40 6 1 - 120
40-44 3 24 28 41 21 5 - 122
45-49 4 32 22 55 46 40 11 210
50-54 7 21 24 34 23 21 22 152
55-59 1 13 11 26 11 10 5 77
60-64 - 8 4 13 8 8 1 42
≥ 65 - - 2 3 4 1 4 14
Total 43 219 178 231 123 86 43 923
October 11, 2011 E-26
DATA SUMMARY
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DATA SUMMARY
Active Age Distribution
Total
0
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<25 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-65 ≥65
Age
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October 11, 2011 E-28
DATA SUMMARY
Active Service Distribution
Total
0
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150
200
250
300
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 >25
Service
Nu
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ACTUARIAL ASSUMPTIONS
January 1, 2009 Valuation29 January 1, 2011 &
June 30, 2011 Valuations
Valuation Date January 1, 2009
Fiscal Years 2009/10 &
2010/11 ARCs (end of year)
January 1, 2011
Fiscal Year 2011/12 ARC (end
of year)
June 30, 2011
Fiscal Years 2012/13 &
2013/14 ARCs (end of year)
Funding Policy Full Pre-funding through
CalPERS trust (CERBT)
Same
General
Inflation
3.00% Same
Discount Rate 7.75% 1/1/11 – 7.75%
6/30/11 – 7.25%
29 From 1/1/09 Milliman report
October 11, 2011 E-30
ACTUARIAL ASSUMPTIONS
January 1, 2009 Valuation29 January 1, 2011 &
June 30, 2011 Valuations
Payroll
Increases
Aggregate Increases – 3.25%
Merit Increases – CalPERS
1997-2002 Experience Study
Aggregate Increases – 3.25%
Merit Increases – CalPERS
1997-2007 Experience Study
Medical Trend
Year
Increase from
Prior Year
2009 Premiums
2010 6.50%
2011 6.50%
2012 6.50%
2013 6.50%
2014 6.50%
2015 6.00%
2016 6.00%
2017 6.00%
2018+ 5.85%
Increase from Prior Year
Year Non-Medicare Medicare
2009 n/a
2010 n/a
2011 Premiums
2012 Premiums
2013 9.0% 9.4%
2014 8.5% 8.9%
2015 8.0% 8.3%
2016 7.5% 7.8%
2017 7.0% 7.2%
2018 6.5% 6.7%
2019 6.0% 6.1%
2020 5.5% 5.6%
2021+ 5.0% 5.0%
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ACTUARIAL ASSUMPTIONS
January 1, 2009 Valuation29 January 1, 2011 &
June 30, 2011 Valuations
Actuarial Load n/a 2.0% load
PEMHCA PPO premium
increases below per capita
claims increases
Mortality,
Termination,
Disability
CalPERS 1997-2002
Experience Study
CalPERS 1997-2007
Experience Study
Retirement CalPERS 1997-2002
Experience Study
Misc Fire Police
Benefit 2.7%@55 3%@50 3%@50
CalPERS 1997-2007
Experience Study
Misc Fire Police
Benefit 2.7%@55 3%@50 3%@50
2%@6030
ERA 57.5 54.5 54.0
30 Applies to employees hired after July 17, 2010
October 11, 2011 E-32
ACTUARIAL ASSUMPTIONS
January 1, 2009 Valuation29 January 1, 2011 &
June 30, 2011 Valuations
Participation at
Retirement
n/a Hired < 1/1/04: 100%
Hired > 1/1/04: 95%
Employees with cost sharing:
reduce above %’s by 5%
Medical Plan at
Retirement
n/a Miscellaneous:
<65 65+
Blue Shield 35% 20%
Kaiser 25% 25%
PERS Choice 30% 20%
PERSCare 10% 35%
Safety:
<65 65+
Blue Shield 35% 20%
Kaiser 25% 25%
PERS Choice 20% 20%
PERSCare 10% 35%
PORAC 10% 0%
2.b
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October 11, 2011 E-33
ACTUARIAL ASSUMPTIONS
January 1, 2009 Valuation29 January 1, 2011 &
June 30, 2011 Valuations
Medicare
Eligible Rate
n/a Actives hired < 4/1/86:
Miscellaneous – 80%
Safety – 90%
Actives hired > 4/1/86: 100%
Retirees < 65: 90%
Everyone eligible for
Medicare will elect Part B
coverage
Spousal
Coverage at
Retirement
Actives: 60%
Retirees: based on current
elections
Currently covered: based on
current elections
Currently waived: 80%
Family
Coverage at
Retirement
Actives: 18% until age 65
Retirees: based on current
elections until age 65
Actives
Misc : 10% until age 65
Safety : 20% until age 65
Retirees: based on current
elections until age 65
October 11, 2011 E-34
ACTUARIAL ASSUMPTIONS
January 1, 2009 Valuation29 January 1, 2011 &
June 30, 2011 Valuations
Missing PERS
Group
n/a Retirees missing PERS group
assumed to be Misc unless
fund designates Police or Fire
Missing
Bargaining
Unit
n/a Retirees missing bargaining
unit assumed to be SEIU
unless fund designates Police
(PAPOA) or Fire (IAFF)
Missing
Department
n/a Retirees missing department
assumed to be 80% GF,
10% Elec, and 10% WWT
Missing Fund n/a People assumed to be 80% GF
from above assumption placed
in “Unknown” Fund
Surviving
Spouse
Participation
n/a 100%
2.b
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October 11, 2011 E-35
ACTUARIAL ASSUMPTIONS
January 1, 2009 Valuation29 January 1, 2011 &
June 30, 2011 Valuations
Spouse Age Actives – Males 3 years older
than females
Retirees – Males 3 years
older than females if spouse
birth date not available
Same
Future New
Participants
None – Closed Group Same
October 11, 2011 E-36
DEFINITIONS
GASB 45
Accrual
Accounting
Project future employer-provided benefit cash flows for current active
employees and current retirees
Discount projected cash flow to valuation date using discount rate (assumed
return on assets used to pay benefits) and other actuarial assumptions to
determine present value of projected future benefits (PVB)
Allocate PVB to past, current, and future periods using the actuarial cost
method
Actuarial cost method used for this valuation is the Entry Age Normal Cost
method which determines Normal Cost as a level percentage of payroll (same
method used by CalPERS)
Normal Cost is amount allocated to current fiscal year
Actuarial Accrued Liability (AAL) is amount allocated to prior service with
employer
Unfunded AAL (UAAL) is AAL less plan assets pre-funded in a segregated
and restricted trust
PayGo Cost Cash subsidy is the pay-as-you-go employer benefit payments for retirees
Implied subsidy is the difference between the actual cost of retiree benefits
and retiree premiums subsidized by active employee premiums
2.b
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October 11, 2011 E-37
DEFINITIONS
Present Value of Benefits
Present Value of Benefits
(With Plan Assets)
Unfunded
Actuarial Accrued
Future
Normal
Costs
Normal Cost
Assets
Present Value of Benefits
(Without Plan Assets)
Unfunded Actuarial
Accrued Liability
Future
Normal
Costs
Normal Cost
October 11, 2011 E-38
DEFINITIONS
Annual
Required
Contribution
(ARC)
“Required contribution” for the current period including:
Normal Cost
Amortization of:
- Initial UAAL
- AAL for plan, assumption, and method changes
- Experience gains/losses (difference between expected and actual)
- Contribution gains/losses (difference between ARC and contributions)
ARC in excess of pay-as-you-go costs not required to be funded
Net OPEB
Obligation
(NOO)
Net OPEB Obligation is the accumulated amounts expensed but not funded
Net OPEB Asset if amounts funded exceed those expensed
Annual OPEB
Cost (AOC)
Expense for the current period including:
ARC
Interest on NOO
Adjustment of NOO
NOO adjustment prevents double counting of expense since ARCs include an
amortization of prior contribution gains/losses previously expensed
2.b
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Blue Shield 23.35% 17.95% 23.71% 9.11%13.80%10.06% 5.19% 2.99% 17.01% 5.27% 12.62%
Blue Shield NetValue 3.61% 0.98% 16.17% 5.22% 6.34%
Kaiser 23.33% 17.83% 16.13% 9.78%10.73%9.16% 7.99% 4.77% 6.84% 7.28% 11.25%
PERS Choice 18.88% 18.04% 5.82% 9.43%12.50%6.00% 0.00% 5.44% 10.74% 1.91% 8.71%
PERS Select -3.00% 4.80% 3.74% -1.07% 1.06%
PERSCare 22.05% -0.59% 13.80% 9.76%13.09%-2.56% 0.00% 15.78% 2.97% 15.13% 8.65%
WHA 15.00% 34.23% 15.00% 9.80%11.80%16.86%
PORAC 21.25% 9.91% 1.65% 0.00%9.97%2.99% 6.99% 0.00% 8.88% 5.50% 6.55%
Blue Shield 4.00% 17.95% -10.06% -0.45% 11.33% 7.05% 0.00% -12.27% 12.80% 0.03% 2.62%
Blue Shield NetValue 0.00% -1.68% 12.80% 0.03% 2.63%
Kaiser 55.60% 31.90% -11.19% -10.13% 32.52% -5.63% 2.49% 6.50% -5.38% -1.59% 7.61%
Kaiser/OOS 13.21% 36.39% 8.96% -19.53% 29.43% 9.89% 6.75% 0.16% 11.11% 3.40% 8.99%
PERS Choice 5.08% -1.40% -8.53% 15.18% 6.12% 2.15% 0.00% 2.00% 5.56% 2.01% 2.66%
PERS Select 0.00% 2.00% 5.56% 2.01% 2.37%
PERSCare 5.92% -1.16% -13.91% 20.01% 7.05% 8.86% 0.00% 1.48% 5.62% -0.28% 3.02%
PORAC 21.30% 5.42% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -9.33% 7.03% 10.00% 15.15% 0.00% 4.63%
WHA 12.08% 55.09% 0.00% -1.00% 7.00% 12.99%
Medicare - All Regions
Percent
Change
Percent
Change
Percent
Change
Percent
Change
Percent
Change
Percent
Change
Percent
Change
Percent
Change
Percent
Change
2011-12
Percent
Change
Bay Area
CalPERS 2002-2012 Health Premiums - Regional
2003-04
Percent
Change
2004-05
Percent
Change
Average per
year
increase
Medicare Percent
Change
2009-10
Percent
Change
2010-11
Percent
Change
2007-08
Percent
Change
2008-09
Percent
Change
2005-06
Percent
Change
2006-07
Percent
Change
Basic 2002-03
Percent
Change
2.
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October 12, 2011 1
RESULTS BY FUND
Actuarial Accrued Liability (AAL)
(Amounts in 000’s)
January 1, 2009 January 1, 2011 June 30, 2011
7.75% 7.75% 7.25%
CIP $ 1,564 $ 2,409 $ 2,572
Elec1,2 13,214 16,325 17,225
Gas1 4,589 6,227 6,668
GF3 91,488 118,946 125,564
ISF - Technology 2,226 2,079 2,257
ISF - Vehicle 1,225 1,411 1,510
Refuse 3,063 4,931 5,256
Storm Drain 494 1,478 1,565
Water1 4,673 5,189 5,539
WWC1 2,013 2,103 2,313
WWT 5,112 8,881 9,454
Total 129,661 169,979 179,923
1 Assets for Fiber Optics Fund appropriated to Elec due to no Fiber Optics employees in data 2 AAL for UTL employees allocated to Elec, Gas, Water, and WWC in proportion to each Fund’s AAL 3 Assets for Printing & Mailing Fund appropriated to GF due to no Printing & Mailing employees in data
October 12, 2011 2
RESULTS BY FUND
Annual Required Contribution (ARC)
(Amounts in 000’s)
1/1/09
Valuation
1/1/11
Valuation 6/30/11 Valuation
Annual Required Contribution 2009/10 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14
7.75% 7.75% 7.25%
CIP $ 142 $ 220 $ 237 $ 245
Elec1,2 953 1,164 1,235 1,275
Gas1 344 390 515 532
GF3 6825 9,510 10,018 10,344
ISF - Technology 214 229 245 253
ISF - Vehicle 95 126 132 136
Refuse 245 402 420 434
Storm Drain 36 112 118 121
Water1 386 428 464 479
WWC1 169 200 223 230
WWT 377 730 771 796
Total 9,786 13,603 14,378 14,845
2.d
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