HomeMy WebLinkAbout2004-03-15 City CouncilCity of Palo Alto
City Manager’s Report
TO:HONORABLE CITY COUNCIL
FROM:CITY MANAGER DEPARTMENT: UTILITIES
DATE:MARCH 15, 2004 CMR:106:04
WATER LONG-TERM DEMAND PROJECTIONTITLE:
This report on Palo Alto’s long-term water demand is for the Council’s information only.
No action is required.
BACKGROUND
In May 2002, the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission (SFPUC) adopted a long-
term capital improvement program (CIP) to repair, replace and seismically upgrade the
regional water system’s pipelines and tunnels, reservoirs and dams. The regional water
system CIP is expected to cost about $2.9 billion. In November 2002, San Francisco
voters approved a $1.6 billion bond issue to pay for its share of the regional water system
capital improvements ($900 million) and capital improvements for its city sewer system
($700 million).
As part of the regional water system capital improvements, the SFPUC is planning to
ensure that the system can meet projected regional water demands. The SFPUC intends
to fully comply with the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) in implementing
the CIP. The CEQA process requires that the potential for growth that might be induced
by the potential project(s) be evaluated. City and county general plans, which are
required by law and are also subject to CEQA, must address the broad range of issues
associated with a city’s or county’s development. General plan policies are intended to
underlie most land use decisions within the jurisdiction. As such, the general plans
represent the best existing information addressing land use decisions and evaluating
growth for the areas that rely upon the San Francisco regional water system.
Because of this relationship, the SFPUC has obtained copies of and recorded the status of
each general plan and individual elements. The SFPUC will identify whether or not each
agency’s land use plan represents a firm basis for facility planning (i.e. whether it is
current, has been formally adopted, has been subjected to a recent environmental review,
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and has a schedule for updating the Plan). On July 21, 2003 a letter was sent to the land
use decision making authorities in the area served by each Bay Area Water Supply and
Conservation Agency (BAWSCA) member agency, requesting copies of its general
plan/elements arid the relevant environmental evaluation document.
As the formal environmental review process is initiated for. the SFPUC’s CIP, a more
comprehensive review of the general plans will occur, in which the demand projections
for the wholesale service area will be reviewed for consistency with the general plans.
The SFPUC has stated its intention to work in partnership with the BAWSCA agencies in
determining the next steps in cases where demand projections may not be entirely
consistent with adopted general plans. Palo Alto has made its adopted Comprehensive
Plan available to the SFPUC.
Palo Alto and the other member agencies of BAWSCA are on record in support of the
SFPUC’s CIP program for the regional water system. The $2.9 billion CIP is a large
undertaking that includes building new pipelines to meet existing and projected loads and
to increase operational flexibility to enhance emergency responsiveness. The
environmental review process is a major step in receiving approvals to proceed towards
implementation of the CIP. One of the foundations of the environmental documentation
is to ensure that the regional water system’s projected demands emanate from the land
use planning agencies’ plans for the communities served by the regional system.
In February 2003, the SFPUC held its first workshop to introduce the BAWSCA agencies
to technical studies being completed, in cooperation with BAWSCA, to support the
implementation of the regional water system CIP. These technical studies include
updating regional demand projections used in the SFPUC’s Water Supply Master Plan
and developing water supply concepts to meet those demands. These studies are
designed to provide technical baseline data critical to the environmental review process
that will be required to implement regional water system CIP projects. As the SFPUC
began the planning, design, and environmental review phases for many of the capital
improvement projects, the BAWSCA agencies, including the City of Palo Alto, were
asked to submit a 30-year water baseline demand forecast.
In May 2003, the SFPUC held a second workshop in order to review the data provided by
various agencies on water use within these agencies’ service area; review the model
intended to be used for developing future demand projections for each agency; and
introduce water supply themes to meet those demands.
The third workshop on wholesale customers’ demand projections was held in September
2003. By this time, it was determined that SFPUC’s consultant would prepare an
individual model for each agency so that methodology and assumptions would be
uniform across the entire region served by SFPUC. The model is a very detailed end-use
model that requires data from each agency about the number of single- and multi-family
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households as well as the number of commercial, industrial and institutional customers.
The monthly water use for each customer category was input to the model to determine
the percentage of water use that is outside versus inside. Therefore, actual data and
census data was used to develop the model for each agency.
The population projections as developed by the Association of Bay Area Governments
(ABAG) were used for forecasting population for the period 2002 to 2030. ABAG
projections are based on each agency’s land-use plans. Palo Alto’s Comprehensive Plan
was used by ABAG to create its projections for Palo Alto.
The SFPUC’s consultant met individually with each agency in October 2003 to ensure
that each agency’s model accurately reflected the agency’s circumstances. Palo Alto
provided additional information regarding its historical water conservation programs,
which were then incorporated into the model for Palo Alto.
DISCUSSION
On January 23, 2004 SFPUC provided the final long-term demand projections for each
agency and asked that each agency confirm the projections. The SFPUC provided the
input assumptions and output produced from the model it developed to project demand
over the next 30 years. Staff has determined that the forecast SFPUC prepared for the
period 2000 to 2030 is consistent with key data drivers such as number of housing units,
number of employees for the commercial and industrial sectors, and population.
The major drivers used by SFPUC’s long-term water use forecast model include water
conservation, population and employment growth, and other issues. The detailed model
for each agency has estimated how many of each water-using fixture exists in each
customer category. For example, the number of toilets, showers, clothes washers, urinals,
etc. is estimated for the residential and non-residential customers. Then, the model is
calibrated by making sure that the monthly water use for each of those fixtures and the
number of fixtures matches the actual historical usage. Once the model is calibrated,
future use projections are developed using population and employment projections
developed by ABAG. The natural turnover of each water-using fixture is estimated as
well.
The effect of new plumbing codes and appliance standards have also been considered.
California law requires that for new construction after January 1, 1992, only fixtures
meeting the following standards can be installed in new buildings:
¯Toilet - 1.6 gallons per flush maximum
¯Urinals - 1 gallon per flush maximum
¯Showerhead and faucets - 2.5 gallons per minute at 80 pounds/square inch
Replacement of fixtures in existing buildings is governed by the Federal Energy Policy
Act that requires only the above can be sold after January 1, 1994 for residential use and
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January 1, 1997 for commercial toilets. This law governs natural replacement. New
clothes washers are required to meet energy efficiency standards in 2004 and 2007, which
will lead t6 water efficiency improvements by no later than 2007.
Initial proportions of water efficient fixtures was based on saturation studies provided by
the Alameda County Water District, the Santa Clara Valley Water District and East Bay
Municipal Utilities District plus other information on new technology and new
regulations.
The main assumptions used in the projections are listed in Table 1 below.
Table 1: SFPUC Baseline Demand Projections Assumptions for Model
Base Year
Population and employment projections, 2002"
2030
Number of water accounts for base year, water
usage by customer category, and
Unaccounted-for water (difference between
amount of water purchased and the amount of
water consumed)
Indoor/outdoor water use split by customer
category
Residential end uses (division of total water use
into specific end uses - e.g. toilets, showers,
irrigation, etc.)
Non’residential end uses (division of total water
use into specific end uses)
Residential fixture efficiency - current
installation rates
Water savings for fixtures, gal/capita/day
Non-residential fixture efficiency cm’rent
installation rates
Residential frequency of use data, toilets,
showers, washers, uses/user/dav
Non-residential frequency of use data, toilets
and urinals, uses/user/day
Natural replacement rate of fixtures
Future residential use
Future commerciaYindustrial use
Future public and other use
2001
A_BAG Projections - December 2002
Actual historical monthly data for 2001 for Pa!o
Alto
5-year average of actual historical data
Estimated from actual monthly data
American Water Works Association Research
Foundation (AWWARF) report: "Residential End
Uses of Water"
AWWARF report: "Commercial and Institutional
End Uses of Water"
2000 Census, housing age by type of dwelling
plus natural replacement
AWWARF report: "Residential End Uses of
Water"
2000 Census, assume commercial establishments
built at same rate as housing, plus natural
replacement
Within ranges in AWWARF report: "Residential
End Uses of Water"
Within ranges in AWWARF report: "Commercial
and Institutional End Uses of Water"
Toilets - 4%/year (25 year life)
Showers - 4%/year (25 year life)
Clothes washers - 6.7%/year (15 year life)
Based on projected population
Based on projected employment or population
Based on projected population
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Palo Alto’s Base Year (2001) Water Consumption
Actual data from calendar year 2001 was used as the base year used to calibrate the
model for Palo Alto. Water consumption by customer category in 2001 is shown in
Table 2 below.
Table 2: Data for Palo Alto’s Model - Base Year 2001
Single family residential
Multi-family residential
Commercial
Industrial
Public Facility
Other
Total Water Sold to Customers
Estimated Unaccounted for Water (used in
model for estimating future demand)
Total Water Purchased
14,515
1,886
1,629
247
64
286
18,627 12.22
0.86
13.08
5.73
1.97
2.41
1.23
0.34
0.54
46.87
16.08
19.75
10.09
2.77
4.44
100.00
7.0%
Population and Emplovrnent Growth
In the housing section of its Comprehensive Plan (Chapter 4, page 3), the City of Palo
Alto Planning Department has projected that the City’s population will increase from
58,800 in 2000 to 62,880 in 2010 (an annual growth rate of 0.67% per year). Growth in
water consumption driven by additional residential dwellings is expected to be limited.
In the Comprehensive Plan, the City recognizes the need to increase the supply of
affordable and market rate housing that meets Palo Alto’s share of regional housing
needs. However, according to the Comprehensive Plan (Chapter 4, page 4), Palo Alto
has a limited supply of vacant residential land. Most of the City’s development potential
consists of infill on small vacant lots, redevelopment of existing properties, and new
mixed-use projects. Only 1.4% of the land area in the City is vacant and there are few
opportunities to annex additional lands in the future.
According to the Comprehensive Plan (Chapter 7 page 2), in 1995, there were
approximately 90,000 jobs in the greater Palo Alto area (including Stanford University).
The Association of Bay Area Government projects that total employment will reach
94,700 by the year 2010. Most of the increase is expected to occur in the retail and
service industries. Continued decline is expected in agriculture, manufacturing, and
wholesaling. The forecast presented in this report is consistent with the limited supply of
residential land and with expected employment figures presented in the Comprehensive
Plan.
Rapid increases in real estate prices and rents can cause some water use customers to use
existing space more intensely (e.g., more persons per square foot). As presented in the
housing segment of the Comprehensive Plan (Chapter 4, page 3), this trend has not been
observed in Palo Alto and is not expected to develop in the foreseeable future. The
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number of persons per household is expected to remain constant at 2.3 over the period
from 2000 to 2010.
Long-term Water Forecast
Results from SFPUC’s end use model are summarized in Table 3.
expected to increase only marginally over the next 30 years.
Total water use is
2025 2030
Water Demand 15,000 15,100
Table 3:
Actual
2001
15,150
Base WaterUse ForecastinAF per Year
Forecast
2005 2010 2015 2020
14,900 14,900 15,000 15,000
Chart 1 below graphically shows the long-term water use projection and actual water
purchases since 1965.
Chart 1: Base Water Purchase Forecast
Historical Water Supply Purchases
and Long-Term Supply Purchase Forecast
20,000
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
lO,OOO
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Action by the Director of Utilities
Each BAWSCA agency has been asked to confirm that the long-term forecast that the
SFPUC developed is consistent with its adopted land-use plans and all other assumptions
used in the model. According to Palo Alto’s Municipal Code (Section 2.08.200 (a)), the
Director of Utilities has the duty: "to coordinate the forecasting of the city’s long-range
utility needs" and "to forecast and plan the acquisition and disposition of sufficient least-
cost resource supplies to meet existing and future supply requirements in an
environmentally acceptable manner." Therefore, the Director of Utilities will concur that
the long-term water demand forecast presented by the SFPUC reflects anticipated future
water demands and that the data used to develop the forecast is accurate. It is noted that
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the projected water demands represent a baseline condition and do not reflect the effect of
future conservation savings, future cost of water, pricing structures, assessment of
alternative supplies, demand management and do not represent purchases from the
SFPUC.
Next Phases of Project
Now that there is a very detailed end use model of Palo Alto’s water use, it can be used
for further study. The next phase of the project currently underway is to examine the
cost-effectiveness to each agency of implementing 32 different water conservation
measures. Palo Alto plans to fully cooperate with the consultant and with SFPUC on this
project and learn what measures it may want to add to its conservation programs.
Following the assessment of conservation opportunities for each agency, the project will
review potential recycled water projects with each agency. When the impact and
potential for conservation and recycled water is fully evaluated, the final step will be for
each agency to estimate how much of its future demands will be met with purchases from
the SFPUC. This project is expected to be completed in mid 2004.
POLICY IMPLICATIONS
Projecting resource needs is consistent with City policies and directives, including the
Utilities Strategic Plan (USP) Objective 2: Invest in utility infrastructure to deliver
reliable service. This forecast is the first step in an in-depth examination of water
efficiency measures, which is consistent with City’s sustainability efforts as well as USP
Key Strategy 7: Implement programs that improve the quality of the environment.
This forecast is consistent with the City of Palo Alto’s Comprehensive Plan assumptions
pertaining to local land use and growth management policy limiting future urban
development to currently developed lands within the urban service area.
PREPARED BY:
¯’""JANE RATOHYE
Senior Resource Planner
DEPARTMENT HEAD:
CITY MANAGER APPROVAL:
Director of Utilities/
/
EM~-’Y-HARRISON
Assistant City Manager
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