HomeMy WebLinkAboutStaff Report 1624City of Palo Alto (ID # 1624)
City Council Informational Report
Report Type: Informational Report Meeting Date: 5/2/2011
May 02, 2011 Page 1 of 7
(ID # 1624)
Council Priority: City Finances
Title: Revised Long Range Financial Forecast
Subject: Acceptance of Revised Long Range Financial Forecast 2011-2021
From:City Manager
Lead Department: Administrative Services
Executive Summary
Attached to this report is the revised Long Range Financial Forecast (LRFF) for the fiscal years
2011 through 2021, along with CMR 1446:11 which accompanied the report presented to
Council on March 14, 2011. The LRFF report attached contains the changes that Council
approved at that meeting. This is an informational report, and no Council action is required.
Background
The LRFF identifies key issues guiding the 2011-2012 budget process and affecting the City’s
future financial condition. It is not, however, itself a budget; nor is it a commitment to
implement the spending or revenues outlined in the Forecast.
Discussion
Assumptions Used in the Forecast
Our Forecast assumes slow growth in all revenue categories, and slower salary growth than in
past Forecasts. On the expense side, pension costs show significant increases due to the
reduced 2009 investment performance of the PERS portfolio and revised demographic
assumptions adopted by PERS.
Staff had presented an initial version of this LRFF to the Finance Committee on February 1,
2011. The Finance Committee asked that staff make the following changes to assumptions in
the Base Model:
1.The initial Base Model assumed health care cost increases in line with the assumptions
used in our January 2009 Retiree Medical Actuarial Valuation –6.5% increases in the
first three years of the forecast, and 6.0% increases in the last seven years. The Finance
Committee asked staff to use 10% annual cost increases (as was assumed in our
Pessimistic Scenario, on page 15 of the report) given the City’s history of double digit
May 02, 2011 Page 2 of 7
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health care cost increases over the last 10-year period and the anticipated impact of
healthcare reform legislation on these costs.
2.The initial Base Model incorporated Transient Occupancy Tax revenue from a new hotel,
beginning in FY 2013. The Finance Committee asked staff to delete that revenue, due to
the uncertainty of the hotel’s opening date.
3.The initial Base Model had assumed a continued 7.75% discount rate for the PERS
investment portfolio. The Finance Committee asked that the Base Model include the
lower discount rate since the PERS Board came close to, but ultimately did not, adopt a
7.5% discount rate. Staff assumed that the PERS rate increases resulting from the
discount rate change will be in the middle of the range indicated by CalPERS, starting in
2013.
4.The original Base Model assumed sharply increasing PERS rates in FY 2012, 2013, and
2014, due to the latest PERS actuarial report. After 2014, however, the Base Model
assumed no further increases for the duration of the Forecast period. The Finance
Committee requested that we assume annual increases of 3% in the PERS rates from
2015 to 2021.
5.Lastly, the Finance Committee asked that the Base Model include an additional $10
million per year invested in infrastructure, beginning in FY 2012, increasing by 3% a year,
as we had shown in two of our alternate Infrastructure scenarios.
In addition to the five changes above requested by the Finance Committee, staff also made an
additional revision to the initial Base Model:
6.The Base Model had assumed that no staff would receive a salary increase in 2012, but
that in 2013, miscellaneous employees, after three years of salary freezes, would
receive a 2% increase. Public safety employees were assumed to begin 2% annual
increases in 2014 after a two-year salary freeze. Staff has revised the model so that all
bargaining units have three years of no salary increases before receiving 2% annual
increases.
At the Council meeting on March 14, Council approved changes 1-4 and 6 described above. But
it deferred on directing a specific additional infrastructure investment, given the pending work
of the Infrastructure Blue Ribbon Commission. Instead, it requested that the Finance
Committee develop a plan for ensuring that the City infrastructure backlog not grow any larger.
Therefore, the Base Model included in this revised Forecast does not include the additional $10
million in infrastructure that the Finance Committee had requested.
The Updated Base Model is summarized in Chart 1, below.
Chart 1: Summary of Update Base Model
May 02, 2011 Page 3 of 7
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2011-2021 LRFF -SUMMARY OF BASE MODEL
FY 2010
Actual
FY 2011
Adopted
FY 2011
Midyear FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021
Revenues
Subtotal: Taxes
67,881
68,518
69,193
70,642 72,866
75,350
78,074
80,734
83,760 87,016
90,074
92,644
95,173
TOTAL REVENUES
144,947
139,433
141,495
144,009 146,326
151,193
156,387
161,600
167,270 173,273
179,150
184,631
190,165
TOTAL
EXPENDITURES
146,625
139,399
141,978
146,289 152,981
158,062
163,934
170,508
177,316 184,423
191,761
199,542
207,591
GRAND NET SURPLUS
(DEFICIT)
$
(1,767)
$
33
$
(483)
$
(2,280)
$
(6,655)
$
(6,869)
$
(7,547)
$
(8,908)
$
(10,046)
$
(11,150)
$
(12,611)
$
(14,911)
$
(17,426)
The Revised Base Model shows a projected net deficit for FY 2011 of $0.5million, and a deficit
of $2.3 million for FY 2012. Over the ten-year period from FY 2012 through FY 2021, cumulative
deficits are projected at $98.4 million.
Given that the estimated (unaudited) Budget Stabilization Reserve balance for June 30, 2011 is
$26.5 million, that Reserve would be depleted in fiscal year 2016, if the City were to rely only on
reserves to balance its budgets. Moreover, the Infrastructure Reserve is projected to dip to
$3.81 million at year-end FY 2011, having started the year at $8.97 million. This makes it clear
that permanent changes are needed to match resources with expenditures to address this
projected long-term structural gap while maintaining the Council-approved reserve goals for
emergency needs.
Alternate Scenarios
Staff prepared the following alternate scenarios, for comparison purposes:
·Scenario 1 -PERS rates increase by 1.5% per year from FY 2015 through FY 2021, rather
than increasing by 3% per year during that period. Given the unknown future increases
in pension rates, staff suggests examining an alternative rate of increase for 2015-2021
of 1.5%. This shaves off $23.3 million of the deficits projected in the Forecast. Chart 2
below shows PERS portfolio returns over the last twenty years.
May 02, 2011 Page 4 of 7
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Chart 2: PERS Portfolio Returns
PERS Portfolio Returns as of Year-End 6/30 (%)
2.5
10.5
3.7
16.6
19.1
-5.1
-24.0
13.3
11.812.3
-6.1-7.2
12.519.5
20.1
15.3
16.4
11.8
12.5
6.5
8.9
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
Year
Returns (%)
Source: CalPERS December 31, 2010
·Scenario 2 -All salary increases are deferred by an additional year (all bargaining units
would receive no salary increases for four years). This results in a savings of $13.7
million over the ten years.
·Scenario 3 –No salary increases for the entire Forecast period. The ten-year savings are
$46.9 million.
·Scenario 4 –Increase Infrastructure investment of $10 million in FY 2012, increasing by
3% per year. This increases the ten-year deficit by $114.6 million, but allows the City to
eliminate the backlog and begin addressing its future infrastructure needs.
·Scenario 5 –Increase Infrastructure investment of $10 million in FY 2012, increasing by
3% per year, and issue a $100 million Certificate of Participation (COP) bond in FY 2012.
This allows the backlog to be eliminated over three years rather than ten. In addition,
after paying approximately $7 million per year on debt service on the bond, the General
Fund can invest the remaining $3 million per year on future needs.
May 02, 2011 Page 5 of 7
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In the original Long Range Financial Forecast on pages 16-18 of the LRFF booklet, under
Infrastructure Scenarios, staff assumed issuing General Obligation (G.O.) bonds for
infrastructure. However, staff inadvertently stated that debt service on the G.O. bonds
would be assumed and paid by the City. In fact any G.O. bond debt service is paid by
property owners, not the City. This is one reason that G.O. bonds must be approved by the
voters beforehand. The Revised version of the Forecast assumes a COP bond, for which the
City would be liable for debt service payments.
Chart 3 below summarizes the revenue impact of the scenarios described above.
Chart 3: Summary of New Scenarios
Long Range Financial Forecast 2011-2021
SUMMARY OF ALTERNATE SCENARIOS MODIFYING REVISED BASE MODEL
(Millions of Dollars)
FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020
FY
2021
10-year Total
(2012-2021)
Revised Base Model ---
Net Surplus (Deficit)(2.3)
(6.7)(6.9)(7.5)(8.9)(10.0)
(11.1)
(12.6)(14.9)(17.4)(98.4)
---Impact of Alternate Scenarios on Bottom Line ---
PERS rates increase
1.5% per year after
2014, rather than by
3% in Base Model (0.0) - - 0.5 1.4 2.3 3.3 4.2 5.3 6.4 23.3
Resulting Net
Surplus (Deficit)(2.3)
(6.7)(6.9) (7.1)(7.5)(7.8)
(7.9)
(8.4)(9.6)(11.1)(75.1)
Salary increases
deferred by one
additional year (0.0)1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8 13.7
Resulting Net
Surplus (Deficit)(2.3)
(5.3)(5.5)(6.2)(7.5)(8.5)
(9.6)
(11.0)(13.2)(15.7)(84.7)
No salary increases for
all 10 years (0.0)1.4 2.6 3.3 4.3 5.2 6.1 7.0 8.0 9.0 46.9
Resulting Net
Surplus (Deficit)(2.3)
(5.2)(4.2)(4.3)(4.6)(4.8)
(5.1)
(5.6)(6.9)(8.4)(51.5)
$10 million additional
infrastructure
investment (10.0)
(10.3)(10.6)(10.9)(11.3)(11.6)
(11.9)
(12.3)(12.7)(13.0)(114.6)
Resulting Net
Surplus (Deficit)(12.3)
(17.0)(17.5)(18.5)(20.2)(21.6)
(23.1)
(24.9)(27.6)(30.5)(213.0)
Recent Economic Changes
Since the original printing of the LRFF in January, economic conditions appear to be improving
above and beyond what is described in the Economy chapter of the report. Employment gains
May 02, 2011 Page 6 of 7
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have been reported both locally and nationally, and consumer spending seems to finally be
rebounding. However, staff does not see evidence that the City’s key revenue sources will
increase more dramatically than is assumed in our Forecast. For example, property taxes, still
affected by dormant residential values and a depressed commercial market, are not expected
to increase more steeply than staff predicted in February.
Risks Not Captured in Forecast
The Forecast does not capture a number of additional risks which are less quantifiable at this
time. First, given the State budget situation, additional State take-aways are possible, either
directly or in the form of pushing down costs of service delivery from the State to local
governments. Secondly, the City’s lease for Cubberley Community Center is due to expire in
December 2014, and decision making on whether and on what terms to renew will begin in
2012 for renewal. The lease requires that the City notify the School District by December 2013
whether it will terminate or exercise the first of its five-year renewal options. The City’s future
costs for the upkeep of the facility, as well as the leasing costs, are therefore uncertain. The
possible transfer of Airport management from the County to City involves similar uncertainties.
Third, the City will undergo its next Retiree Medical Valuation as of June 30, 2011, with
completion expected in the fall of 2011. This valuation will likely increase the City’s Annual
Required Contribution, due to the jump in retirements and the rate of health care cost
increases.
Conclusions
This Forecast brings into sharp focus the necessity for change over the next ten years to address
significant structural deficits. The increasing cost of employee benefits, above and beyond the
growth in revenue sources, means that employees will need to bear a larger proportion of the
cost of those benefits. Otherwise the City will either need to cut services or aggressively
evaluate outsourcing options for some of those services.
It is staff’s hope that by examining this fiscal snapshot, Council members and staff may identify
issues that must be addressed now to improve the long-term picture. While the FY 2012 budget
will focus on closing next year’s projected deficit, staff and Council must also explore more
substantial changes for incorporation into FY 2013 and future budgets.
RESOURCE IMPACT
As with any financial forecast, the fiscal impacts shown are estimates. Estimates of future
deficits and surpluses, as well as the estimated costs of future financial challenges, are meant to
guide future policy and budget decisions.
POLICY IMPLICATIONS
The Long Range Financial Forecast is a tool for Council’s use in making policy decisions
regarding the allocation of resources.
ENVIRONMENTAL REVIEW
This report does not require California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) review.
May 02, 2011 Page 7 of 7
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Attachments:
·Attachment 1: Palo Alto Long Range Financial Forecast 2011-2021 (PDF)
·Attachment 2: CMR: 1446 (PDF)
Prepared By:Nancy Nagel, Senior Financial Analyst
Department Head:Lalo Perez, Director
City Manager Approval: James Keene, City Manager
LONG
RANGE FINANCIAL
Fiscal Years 2011 to 2021
FORECAST
—REVISED—
TABLE OF CONTENTS
I. INTRODUCTION 1
II. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1
IV. UPDATED MODEL 7
III. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 3
V. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS 14
VI. CONCLUSIONS 19
VII. ENDNOTES 20
VIII. APPENDICES 21
City of Palo Alto
2011
INTRODUCTION
I. INTRODUCTION
This report is the City’s updated General Fund Long Range Financial Forecast (LRFF) for the fiscal years 2011
through 2021. The LRFF identifies key issues that will guide the upcoming 2011-2012 budget process and
affect the City’s future financial condition.
II. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Although the Recession was declared officially over as of June 2009, as of December 2010, there remained in
the range of 15 million American workers, or 9.4% of the workforce, unemployed. The housing market shows
underwhelming evidence of a rebound, and the general recovery is painfully slow. Moreover, unemployment
statistics are just a subset of a broader problem of under-employment and long-term unemployment. Adding
in those who are working part-time because they cannot find full-time work, the total underemployed num-
ber is about 22 million Americans, including 6 million who have been unemployed for over six months.
The impact of these economic developments on our Forecast is reflected in slow growth assumptions in all
revenue categories and slower salary growth than in past Forecasts. On the expense side, pension costs show
significant increases due to the reduced investment performance of the PERS portfolio and revised demo-
graphic assumptions adopted by PERS. A summary of our Base Model – our best estimate of the fiscal picture
over the next ten years – appears below.
2011-2021 LRFF - SUMMARY OF BASE MODEL
FY 2010 Actual FY 2011 Adopted FY 2011 Midyear FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021
Revenues
Subtotal: Taxes 67,881 68,518 69,193 70,642 72,866 75,350 78,074 80,734 83,760 87,016 90,074 92,644 95,173
TOTAL REVENUES 144,947 139,433 141,495 144,009 146,326 151,193 156,387 161,600 167,270 173,273 179,150 184,631 190,165
TOTAL EXPENDITURES 146,625 139,399 141,978 146,289 152,981 158,062 163,934 170,508 177,316 184,423 191,761 199,542 207,591
GRAND NET SURPLUS (DEFICIT) $ (1,767) $ 33 $ (483) $ (2,280) $ (6,655) $ (6,869) $ (7,547) $ (8,908) $ (10,046) $ (11,150) $ (12,611) $ (14,911) $ (17,426)
2 City of Palo Alto
2011
The Base Model shows a projected net deficit
for FY 2011 of $0.5 million, and a deficit of $2.3
million for FY 2012. Over the ten-year period
from FY 2012 through FY 2021, cumulative
deficits are projected at $98.4 million.
This is a much improved fiscal picture compared to the one presented in February 2010. Looking just at FY
2011-2020, for comparison purposes, last year’s Forecast showed a cumulative deficit of $147.5 million, while
this year’s Base Model projects a cumulative $81.5 million deficit, with much of the improvement due to the
significant Budget reset accomplished by the FY 2011 Adopted Budget.
In addition to the Base Model, staff has prepared a number of Alternative Scenarios, including:
• one in which PERS rates increase a bit more slowly in the out years. (See Appendix 2, Scenario 1 for
complete model) for a projected ten-year savings of $23.3 million.
• one in which all salary increases are deferred by an additional year, resulting in a savings of $13.7 mil-
lion over the ten years. (See Appendix 2, Scenario 2 for complete model showing one-year salary in-
crease deferral.)
• one which assumes no salary growth throughout the ten-year period, with savings of $46.9 million.
(See Appendix 2, Scenario 3 for complete model.)
• two in which the GF increases its annual infrastructure investment by $10 million – which eliminates
the unfunded backlog and funds a portion of the projected Future Infrastructure Needs, as well as in-
creasing deficits, but by varying degrees depending on whether the GF issues a Certificate of Partici-
pation (COP) bond.
These scenarios are summarized in the table found on page 18.
This Forecast is not a prediction. It is a snapshot contingent upon a number of assumptions, all of which are
outlined below in the report. The overall color of the snapshot, however, is one of “business as usual” – or
business as it is in FY 2011, assuming that over the next 10 years, the same size workforce will provide the
same services, and the revenue base will continue its recent anemic course. It is staff’s hope that by examining
this snapshot, Council members and staff may identify issues that must be addressed now to improve the
long-term picture, and as a result, incorporate into the FY 2012 budget changes that will improve the City’s
outlook for future years.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Alternate Scenarios include:
• PERS rate increases slow in later years
• Salary increases deferred an additional year
• No salary increases at all
• Additional Infrastructure Funding
This Forecast is not a prediction. It is a snapshot
contingent upon a number of assumptions.
City of Palo Alto 3
2011
III. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
The following information was compiled in January 2011 for this report.
The Great Recession was declared officially over as of June 2009 by the National Bureau of Economic
Research;i yet there remain 15 million unemployed American workers, the housing market shows spotty
evidence of rebounding, and the overall recovery is painfully slow. Moreover, there is an unprecedented
disconnect between rising corporate profits and the rate of job creation.
U.S. unemployment was in the 9.6% range for the third quarter of 2010, jumping to 9.8% in November,ii be-
fore dropping to 9.4% in December. Yet unemployment statistics tell only part of a story which also includes
the long-term unemployed and the underemployed. The U.S. Department of Labor uses a measure known as
U-6 to quantify both the unemployed and others working part-time who want full-time work but cannot find
it. The Department’s November 2010 Job report showed the U-6 rate hit 17.1% in September, decreased
slightly to 17.0% in October and November, and then dropped to 16.7% in December.iii That 16.7% underem-
ployment rate translates to 14.8 million Americans unemployed, and another 7 million underemployed, to
total about 22 million Americans who want full-time work but cannot find it. Furthermore, 6 million people
have been unemployed for longer than 6 months, many of whom will face challenges reintegrating into the
industries from which they came.iv
Source: Gallup
The housing market is showing tepid recovery, with large variations by region and area. Pending sales of U.S.
existing houses jumped by a record 10 percent in October 2010, following a 1.8 percent drop in September
2010. Many took this as a sign that the housing industry was in recovery, yet the October 2010 figures were 22
percent below pending sales of October 2009.v
In California, home prices have largely stabilized in the $250,000 range, after declining some 57% from the
peak to the trough of the housing market.vi
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
4 City of Palo Alto
2011
In Santa Clara County, a 13-month trend of year-over-year home price increases was reversed in November
2010 by a sharp 7.3 percent drop in the median price to $510,000, as reported by DataQuick, a real estate in-
formation service. In San Mateo County, the median price dropped 3.7 percent or $617,500 from a year ago,
and sales dipped 2.7 percent. However, sales in the high end were strong in San Mateo County. One Data-
Quick analyst observed, “It all varies at the neighborhood level, and the bigger picture is that home prices are
essentially flat across the board.”vii
According to the State’s Legislative Analyst’s Office (LAO), “California’s recession started even earlier than the na-
tion’s and was deeper. While U.S. employment dropped about 5 percent since 2007, employment in CA declined 9
percent (1.4 million jobs). Unemployment in the state – under 5 percent as recently as 2006 – has topped 12 percent
for over a year now, with only 53,000 jobs recovered out of the 1.4 million lost. In 2009, personal income in Califor-
nia actually dropped 2.4 percent – the first annual decline since 1933…”viii As recently as August 2010, the state’s
unemployment rate rose by 0.1% to 12.4 percent after declining or holding steady for the last four months.ix
The main cause of the state’s economic implosion has been the housing market. Though the collapse of the
state’s residential housing sector appears to have ended, growth is expected to be weak. Furthermore the
state’s construction sector – having endured a crushing 40 percent employment decline since 2007—is not on
track to regain its pre-recession strength in the foreseeable future.x
Nationally, consumers are spending more, but month-to-month results vary. The Conference Board
Consumer Confidence Index, which had improved in November 2010, decreased slightly in December. The
Index now stands at 52.5 (1985=100), down from 54.3 in November. This index is based on a survey of 5,000
US households.
Consumers’ holiday spending improved com-
pared to last year, but not as much as analysts
had hoped. October 2010 retail levels had
climbed by the most in seven months, with
purchases rising 1.2% over the previous
month, and 7.3 percent above October 2009.
This rise was led by a 5% gain among auto
“A year ago this time most people were holding on
to jobs, and very few people were quitting.
Now...people are leaving and being replaced. That’s
what gets things going again.”
— Sterling Infosystems
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
City of Palo Alto 5
2011
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
dealers, compared to September, and sales excluding automobiles advanced just 0.4%.xi At the same time,
Americans’ personal income grew at a faster pace than it had for much of the year, and consumer spending
expanded.xii
As the LAO described it, “the slow recovery results from a combination of (1) excess inventories of residential
and commercial real estate, (2) severely depressed economic confidence among both individuals and firms,
and (3) for many consumers, a considerably weakened financial capacity to spend and invest…. While busi-
nesses have been spending more in recent quarters to address equipment, software, and other needs they
deferred during the recession, they remain very reluctant to hire.”
In the last month or so, some
businesses have noticed a
pick-up in the job market.
In early December 2010, an
executive from Sterling Infosys-
tems, a firm that helps
companies screen employees,
said, “A year ago this time most
people were holding on to jobs,
and very few people were quit-
ting. Now you’ve
got churn. People are leaving and
being replaced. That’s what gets
things going again.”xiv
Furthermore, since its trough
in June 2009, the Federal
Reserve’s index of industrial pro-
duction is up almost 10%. Part of
this is due to strong demand from
abroad as the rest of the world recovers from the global downturn.xv
Projections
The U.S. can expect “very sluggish growth” for the foreseeable future. Beacon Economics, a California-based
economic research and analysis firm, projected in early November 2010 that the national unemployment rate
would stay above 8 percent until the 3rd quarter of 2012.xvi The LAO was even more pessimistic, predicting
that unemployment would remain above 9 percent throughout 2012.xvii Most pessimistic of all, a January 9,
2011 New York Times article predicted that “at the current rate, the economy will need 72 to 90 months to
recapture the jobs lost during the Great Recession. And that does not account for the five million jobs needed
to keep pace with a growing population.”xviii
For California, Beacon forecasted an unemployment rate above 12 percent through 2nd quarter 2011, dipping to
General Fund Major Revenues (in millions)
$19.5
18 .0
Sales Tax
$25.8
$13.3
$7.4
Transient Occup.
Tax
$9.5
$3.1 $4.0
$5.8
Documentary
Transfer Tax$1.3
$25.3
$26.0
Property Tax
$8.1
$10.8
$ 11.3
Utility User's Tax
$5.4
$-
$4.0
$8.0
$12.0
$16.0
$20.0
$24.0
$28.0
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Fiscal Year
6 City of Palo Alto
2011
10% in late 2012, and that “it will be well into 2015 before California reaches its pre-recession peak of 15.2 million
jobs.”xix In Silicon Valley, while the overall regional economy is improving, hiring has not picked up significantly.
The Bay Area Council released its fall Business Confidence Survey in December 2010, and the results show
that Bay Area CEOs and executives are feeling more positive about the Bay Area economy. However, they
expect the current status quo of slow growth and recovery to continue. The Business Confidence Index – the
number that distills the survey findings – registered at 58 out of 100, up 2 points from the last survey, but still
down 4 points from May 2010. A reading over 50 signals positive economic times, while below 50 is negative.
In January 2009, the index reached its all-time low of 31.
The Survey also indicated that 56% of executives expect their workforces to remain the same over the next 6
months, while 27% planned to increase their workforce. 50% of Bay Area companies with over 10,000
employees expect to increase their workforce over the next six months, an increase of 41 points since last
quarter’s survey.xx
With unemployment at a relatively low rate of 5.8% in November 2010, Palo Alto has been spared the higher
unemployment rates experienced by the rest of Santa Clara County, which remained at 10.8% in November.
Yet Palo Alto’s unemployment rate was more than double its 2007 pre-recession rate of 2.5%.
Source: California Employment Development Department
Impact of Economic Outlook on the Forecast
The impact on our Forecast of these economic developments is slow growth assumptions in all revenue cate-
gories. On the flip side, the recession’s effect on labor markets allowed salary growth assumptions to decrease
relative to past Forecasts. Specific assumptions are detailed in the discussion of the Model below.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Unemployment Rates Nov
2007
Nov
2008
Nov
2009
Nov
2010
Santa Clara County 4.7% 7.0% 11.5% 10.8%
City of Palo Alto 2.5% 3.7% 6.2% 5.8%
City of Palo Alto 7
2011
IV. UPDATED MODEL
ASSUMPTIONS USED IN THE BASE MODEL
The Base Model represents staff’s “Best Guess” of where the General Fund Budget is headed if it continues in
the general direction set out by the 2011 Budget and given the conditions surrounding revenues and expendi-
tures that staff can discern as of this writing. While staff has included salary increases in the models, they are
not commitments, and, given the continued financial deficits, the likelihood of salary increases occurring in
the near-term is extremely low. Staff assumed the following in the Base Model:
EXPENSES
1. Miscellaneous employees, after experiencing salary freezes in 2010, 2011 and 2012, will receive a 2% salary
increase in 2013 and each year thereafter through 2021.
2. Fire employees will have a salary freeze in 2012 and 2013, after which they also will receive 2%
annual increases. Prior to this, Fire received a 4 to 5 percent salary increase in 2010 but not in 2011. Police
received a 6 percent salary increase in 2011, so will have a salary freeze in 2012, 2013, and 2014. Then it
also will receive 2% annual increases.
3. PERS rates will rise as estimated in the most recent PERS valuation, dated October 2010, as follows:
In addition, since PERS came close to reducing its 7.75% discount rate to 7.5%, PERS rates are anticipated
to rise an additional 2.2% for Miscellaneous employees starting in 2013, and an additional 4% for Safety
employees. Therefore, the PERS rates for 2013 and 2014 will end up as in the following table:
UPDATED MODEL
Fiscal Year Misc. Rates Safety Rates
2011 17.56% 24.7%
2012 21.73% 30.13%
2013 23.10% 32.30%
2014 26.20% 37.80%
Fiscal Year Miscellaneous Rates Safety Rates
2013 25.35% 36.3%
2014 28.45% 41.80%
8 City of Palo Alto
2011
Furthermore, each year from 2014 on, PERS rates are assumed to increase an additional 3% per year. So
2015 Miscellaneous rates are assumed to be 31.45%; 2016 rates are 34.45%, etc.
4. Transfers to the Infrastructure Fund will follow the 5-year CIP Budgeted amounts, which are $9.8 million
in FY 2011, $10.44 million in FY 2012, increasing by 4% per year through FY 2021. (Alternate Infrastructure
scenarios are discussed below on pages 15-17.)
5. Technology Fund repayments of $1.225 million per year continue in 2012 and 2013, after which the Fund
will have been completely repaid.
6. Library Operating Cost increases of $0.25 million are incorporated into FY 2012 Operating Costs, and
from FY 2013 onward $1 million in increased costs are included.
7. Medical insurance costs are assumed to increase by 10% per year.
8. Savings from Miscellaneous Group’s Two-Tier Retirement Structure (2% at 60) begin in FY 2013 – 2 years
after the date of implementation – as PERS rates generally have a two-year delay.
9. Savings from the Miscellaneous Group’s 90-10 Medical cost-sharing plan are assumed to begin in April 1,
2011. Employees will ramp up to paying 10% of medical premiums over 3-4 years.
10. In FY 2012 non-salary expense increases by 1.5 percent; in FY 2013, it increases by 2 percent. In FY 2013
and beyond, annual increases are assumed at 3 percent, which approximates the average annual rate of
inflation for the Bay Area during the past ten years.
UPDATED MODEL
General Fund LRFF Expenditure by Type
Adopted FY 2011 Budget
Salary & Benefits
63.5%
Rents & Leases
0.5%
General Expense
7.2%
Facilities & Equipment
0.3%Allocated Charges
11.0%
Operating Transfers-Out
0.8%Transfer to Infrastructure
7.0%
Contract Services
7.3%
Supplies & Material
2.3%
Total Budgeted Expenditures = $139.4 million
Due to rounding error % may not equal 100%
City of Palo Alto 9
2011
UPDATED MODEL
Salaries, Benefits, and Number of Employees (FTE)
$55.6 $57.0 $60.4 $62.1 $61.1 $60.0 $61.2 $61.8 $63.0 $64.3
$27.3 $29.9 $30.9 $29.5 $32.9 $29.6 $33.5 $35.1 $39.4$38.3
580580580623647 650
653 652
580580
$-
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Fiscal Year
Mi
l
l
i
o
n
s
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Nu
m
b
e
r
o
f
E
m
p
l
o
y
e
e
s
(F
T
E
)
Salaries Benefits Full-Time Equivalent Permanent Employees (FTE)
`
General Fund LRFF Revenue by Type
Adopted FY 2011 Budget
Sales Tax
13 .1%
Property Tax
18 .6 %
Transient Occupancy
Tax
5.0%Utility Users Tax
8.2%
Other Taxes and
Fines
1.7%
Documentary
Transfer Tax
2.6%
Return on Investment
1.2 %
Permits and Licenses
3.3%
Rental Income
9.8%
Operating Transfers-
In
13 .4 %
Other Revenue
1.1%
Chgs. to Other Funds
7.6%
Charges for Services
14 .4 %
From other agencies
0.1%
Total Budgeted Revenues = $139.3 million
Due to rounding error % may not equal 100%
10 City of Palo Alto
2011
REVENUES
1. FY 2011 sales tax revenue is estimated at $19.5 million, a $1.3 million increase above the FY 2011
Adopted Budget. $0.8 million of the increase is due to stronger sales tax performance in the 3rd calendar
year quarter and indications of a stronger 4th quarter in retail sales. The remaining increase is a conse-
quence of the State’s “triple flip” underpayment for FY 2010 which will be remitted in FY 2011. Revenues
of $19.6 million and $20.3 million are projected for FY 2012 and 2013, respectively.
2. The property tax projection for FY 2011 is $25.3 million -- $0.6 million below the FY 2011 adopted budget,
and $0.7 million or 2.7 percent below FY 2010 receipts. This is due to the sizeable number of commercial
property appeals on properties’ assessed values which the County has received. These appeals will be
processed over the next 2-3 years, with a corresponding drag on City property tax receipts.
3. The FY 2011 estimate for Transient Occupancy Tax (TOT) is now $7.4 million, a $0.4 million increase from
the FY 2011 Adopted Budget amount. In FY 2010, TOT revenues ceased their prior downward trend and
began to rise. Occupancy and daily rates increased from 66.2% and $145 per day in October 2009 to 80.5%
and $150 per day in October 2010. These trends, along with the opening of the new Hotel Keen in May
2010, have led staff to forecast higher revenues in FY 2011 and forthcoming years. Although additional
hotels are expected to open over the next 3-5 years, their receipts have not been included in the Forecast.
4. The Documentary Transfer Tax revenue projected for FY 2011 is $4.0 million, nearly $0.4 million above
the Adopted Budget. Through the middle of this fiscal year, revenue results have been running nearly
equal to those of the prior year. Staff believes, however, that property transaction activity will increase in
the second half of this year and lead to slightly higher transfer taxes at year-end.
5. The FY 2011 projection for Charges for Services increased by almost $1.0 million compared to the FY 2011
Adopted Budget. This includes an increase of $0.6 million for plan check fee revenue due to increased
building and development activity within the City, and an increase of $0.4 million as a result of the year-
end reconciliation of the Stanford joint service agreements for public safety.
FACTORS NOT INCLUDED IN BASE MODEL
The Forecast does not capture the following additional risks:
• Additional State take-aways, either direct or in the form of pushing down costs of service delivery
from the State to local governments.
• Changes in costs or expenditures due to the City’s lease for Cubberley Community Center expiration
in December 2014. Negotiations will begin in 2012 for renewal.
• The City will undergo its next Retiree Medical Valuation as of June 30, 2011, with completion expected
in the fall of 2011. This valuation will likely increase the City’s Annual Required Contribution, due to
the jump in retirements and the rate of health care cost increases.
UPDATED MODEL
City of Palo Alto 11
2011
BASE MODEL
The Base Model is included on pages 12-13. The first table shows projections over the 10 years, and the sec-
ond table shows year-over-year percentage changes in each category. The Base Model shows a projected net
deficit for FY 2011 of $0.5 million, and a deficit of $2.3 million for FY 2012. Over the ten-year period from FY
2012 through FY 2021, cumulative deficits are projected at $98.4 million.
UPDATED MODEL
Citywide Healthcare Expenses - 10% annual increase
19.3
6.9
1.5
14.5
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015Mi
l
l
i
o
n
s
Active Employees Retirees
Citywide Pension Expense
$6.1 $4.8 $3.8 $2.4
$15.6
$18.2$19.5$20.8
$22.9
$20.0 $19.5
$23.3 $24.8
$28.9
$6.9
$28.5
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$302000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015Mi
l
l
i
o
n
s
12 City of Palo Alto
2011
UPDATED MODEL
FY 2010
Actual
FY 2011
Adopted
FY 2011
Midyear FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021
Revenues
Sales Taxes 17,991$ 18,218$ 19,507$ 19,646$ 20,320$ 21,085$ 21,888$ 22,750$ 23,649$ 24,594$ 25,295$ 25,940$ 26,638$
Property Taxes 25,982 25,907 25,323 25,830 26,699 27,665 28,734 29,914 31,177 32,581 34,114 35,227 36,186
Transient Occupancy Tax 6,858 7,021 7,400 7,704 7,946 8,196 8,470 8,771 9,091 9,432 9,701 9,968 10,237
Utility User Tax 11,296 11,429 10,824 10,859 11,069 11,329 11,654 11,708 11,976 12,252 12,528 12,796 13,054
Documentary Transfer Tax 3,707 3,613 4,000 4,219 4,377 4,546 4,723 4,908 5,103 5,310 5,504 5,694 5,948
Other Taxes and Fines 2,047 2,330 2,139 2,384 2,455 2,529 2,605 2,683 2,763 2,846 2,932 3,020 3,110
Subtotal: Taxes 67,881 68,518 69,193 70,642 72,866 75,350 78,074 80,734 83,760 87,016 90,074 92,644 95,173
Charges for Services 19,593 20,068 20,924 21,420 22,063 22,724 23,406 24,108 24,832 25,577 26,344 27,134 27,948
Permits and Licenses 4,720 4,533 5,102 4,739 4,882 5,028 5,179 5,334 5,494 5,659 5,829 6,004 6,184
Return on Investment 2,624 1,646 1,337 1,317 1,314 1,331 1,354 1,380 1,412 1,459 1,489 1,516 1,540
Rental Income 14,397 13,716 13,776 13,991 12,150 12,515 12,890 13,277 13,675 14,086 14,508 14,943 15,392
From other agencies 333 155 221 158 163 168 173 178 183 189 194 200 206
Charges to Other Funds 11,027 10,622 10,681 10,745 11,067 11,399 11,741 12,093 12,456 12,829 13,214 13,611 14,019
Other revenues 2,360 1,490 1,584 1,544 1,590 1,638 1,687 1,738 1,790 1,844 1,899 1,956 2,015
Total Revenues Before Transfers 122,936 120,748 122,818 124,556 126,094 130,152 134,505 138,843 143,602 148,658 153,551 158,008 162,477
Operating Transfers-In 22,011 18,684 18,677 19,453 20,232 21,041 21,882 22,758 23,668 24,615 25,599 26,623 27,688
TOTAL REVENUES 144,947 139,433 141,495 144,009 146,326 151,193 156,387 161,600 167,270 173,273 179,150 184,631 190,165
Expenditures
Salaries 61,080 59,020 59,701 60,661 61,798 62,843 64,113 65,409 66,730 68,078 69,453 70,855 72,286
Benefits 32,900 29,525 30,458 33,593 37,136 40,684 43,524 46,983 50,589 54,407 58,365 62,672 67,150
Subtotal: Salaries and Benefits 93,980 88,545 90,159 94,254 98,934 103,527 107,637 112,391 117,319 122,485 127,818 133,527 139,436
Contract Services 8,899 10,180 11,012 10,382 10,833 11,116 11,449 11,792 12,146 12,510 12,885 13,272 13,670
Supplies & Materials 2,867 3,242 3,289 3,541 4,112 4,235 4,362 4,493 4,628 4,767 4,910 5,057 5,209
General Expense 9,341 10,022 9,918 10,172 10,375 10,686 11,007 11,337 11,677 12,027 12,388 12,760 13,143
Rents and Leases 627 663 641 774 789 813 837 862 888 915 942 970 999
Facilities and Equipment 1,734 452 442 459 468 482 496 511 526 542 558 575 592
Allocated Charges 14,540 15,371 15,293 15,102 15,404 14,646 15,085 15,538 16,004 16,484 16,979 17,488 18,013
Total Expenditures Before Transfers 131,988 128,475 130,754 134,684 140,915 145,505 150,873 156,924 163,188 169,730 176,480 183,649 191,062
Transfers to Other Funds
Operating Transfers Out 4,737 1,122 1,422 1,167 1,214 1,263 1,314 1,367 1,422 1,479 1,538 1,600 1,664
Transfer to Infrastructure 9,900 9,802 9,802 10,438 10,852 11,294 11,747 12,217 12,706 13,214 13,743 14,293 14,865
TOTAL EXPENDITURES 146,625 139,399 141,978 146,289 152,981 158,062 163,934 170,508 177,316 184,423 191,761 199,542 207,591
Net Operating Surplus/(Gap) (1,678) 33 (483) (2,280) (6,655) (6,869) (7,547) (8,908) (10,046) (11,150) (12,611) (14,911) (17,426)
Drawdown on Budget Stabilization Reserve
Comprehensive Annual Fin. Rpt. Recon. (89)
Subtotal (89) - - - - - - - - - - -
GRAND NET SURPLUS (DEFICIT) (1,767)$ 33$ (483)$ (2,280)$ (6,655)$ (6,869)$ (7,547)$ (8,908)$ (10,046)$ (11,150)$ (12,611)$ (14,911)$ (17,426)$
2011-2021 LRFF - BASE MODEL
*In FY 2011, Adopted Budget assumed 90-10 plan implementation for Miscellaneous group effective April 1 2011.
City of Palo Alto 13
2011
UPDATED MODEL
FY 2011
Midyear FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021
Cumulative %
Change
2010-2021
Revenues
Sales Taxes 8.43% 0.71% 3.43% 3.76% 3.81% 3.94% 3.95% 4.00% 2.85% 2.55% 2.69%
Property Taxes (2.54%) 2.00% 3.36% 3.62% 3.86% 4.11% 4.22% 4.50% 4.71% 3.26% 2.72%
Transient Occupancy Tax 7.90% 4.11% 3.13% 3.15% 3.35% 3.55% 3.65% 3.75% 2.85% 2.75% 2.70%
Utility User Tax (4.18%) 0.32% 1.93% 2.35% 2.87% 0.46% 2.29% 2.30% 2.25% 2.14% 2.02%
Documentary Transfer Tax 7.90% 5.48% 3.75% 3.85% 3.90% 3.92% 3.97% 4.05% 3.65% 3.45% 4.47%
Other Taxes and Fines 4.52% 11.44% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Subtotal: Taxes 1.93% 2.09% 3.15% 3.41% 3.62% 3.41% 3.75% 3.89% 3.51% 2.85% 2.73%40.21%
Charges for Services 2.37% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Permits and Licenses 8.10% -7.11% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Return on Investment (49.07%) -1.49% -0.24% 1.31% 1.76% 1.91% 2.31% 3.38% 2.01% 1.81% 1.61%
Rental Income (4.31%) 1.56% -13.15% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
From other agencies (33.73%) -28.51% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Charges to Other Funds (3.14%) 0.59% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Other revenues (32.88%) -2.53% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Total Revenues Before Transfers (0.10%) 1.42% 1.23% 3.22% 3.34% 3.23% 3.43% 3.52% 3.29% 2.90% 2.83%32.16%
Operating Transfers-In (15.15%) 4.15% 4.01% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00%
TOTAL REVENUES (2.38%) 1.78% 1.61% 3.33% 3.44% 3.33% 3.51% 3.59% 3.39% 3.06% 3.00%31.20%
Expenditures
Salaries (2.26%) 1.61% 1.87% 1.69% 2.02% 2.02% 2.02% 2.02% 2.02% 2.02% 2.02%18.35%
Benefits (7.42%) 10.29% 10.55% 9.55% 6.98% 7.95% 7.68% 7.55% 7.28% 7.38% 7.15%
Subtotal: Salaries and Benefits (4.07%) 4.54% 4.96% 4.64% 3.97% 4.42% 4.38% 4.40% 4.35% 4.47% 4.42%48.37%
Contract Services 23.74% -5.72% 4.34% 2.61% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Supplies & Materials 14.73% 7.66% 16.13% 2.99% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 2.99% 3.01%
General Expense 6.18% 2.56% 2.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Rents and Leases 2.23% 20.75% 1.94% 3.04% 2.95% 2.99% 3.02% 3.04% 2.95% 2.97% 2.99%
Facilities and Equipment (74.51%) 3.85% 1.96% 2.99% 2.90% 3.02% 2.94% 3.04% 2.95% 3.05% 2.96%
Allocated Charges 5.18% -1.25% 2.00% -4.92% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Total Expenditures Before Transfers (0.93%) 3.01% 4.63% 3.26% 3.69% 4.01% 3.99% 4.01% 3.98% 4.06% 4.04%44.76%
Transfers to Other Funds
Operating Transfers Out (69.99%) -17.92% 4.03% 4.04% 4.04% 4.03% 4.02% 4.01% 3.99% 4.03% 4.00%
Transfer to Infrastructure (0.99%) 6.49% 3.97% 4.07% 4.01% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00%
TOTAL EXPENDITURES (3.17%) 3.04% 4.57% 3.32% 3.72% 4.01% 3.99% 4.01% 3.98% 4.06% 4.03%41.58%
Net Operating Surplus/(Gap)(71.21%) 372.04% 191.82% 3.21% 9.87% 18.04% 12.78% 10.99% 13.11% 18.24% 16.87%
PERCENTAGE CHANGES IN BASE MODEL
14 City of Palo Alto
2011
V. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS
Staff developed alternate scenarios of the model, to ascertain the impacts of different assumptions on the City’s
bottom line. The scenarios are described below, and a summary of the results of all scenarios may be found on
page 18.
SCENARIO 1—PERS RATE INCREASES LESS STEEP IN OUT YEARS
The chart below shows the PERS portfolio’s performance over the last 20 years.
The tremendous dip in the portfolio in 2008 and 2009 is responsible for the steep increases anticipated in 2012,
2013 and 2014. However, given the greatly improved rate of return in 2010, and the unknown future in-
creases in pension rates, staff suggests examining an alternative rate of annual increase for FY 2015-2021 of
1.5%, compared to 3% in the Base Model. This shaves $23.3 million off the deficits projected in the Forecast
(see Appendix 2, Scenario 1 for complete scenario model).
SCENARIO 2—SALARY INCREASES DELAYED BY ONE ADDITIONAL YEAR
In this scenario, all bargaining units have a four-year salary freeze, rather than a three-year freeze. This re-
sults in a savings of $13.7 million over the ten years. (See Appendix 2, Scenario 2 for details.)
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS
PERS Portfolio Returns as of Year-End 6/30 (%)
2.5
10.5
3.7
16.6
19.1
-24.0
13.3
-5.1
11.812.3
-6.1-7.2
12.519.5
20.1
15.3
16.4
11.8
12.5
6.5
8.9
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Year
Re
t
u
r
n
s
(
%
)
City of Palo Alto 15
2011
SCENARIO 3—NO SALARY INCREASES FOR ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD
Since deficits are projected for each year of the forecast, staff inquired what the savings might be if no salary
increases were given for the entire ten years. The savings would be $46.9 million over the ten years—solving
less than half of the projected deficits. (See Appendix 2, Scenario 3 for details.)
SCENARIOS 4 AND 5—INCREASED INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT
In these scenarios, it is assumed that the City will, at a minimum, erase its infrastructure backlog over the ten-
year period of the Forecast. In quantifying the backlog as well as Future Needs, staff was aware that the
Public Works Department is in the process of updating these estimates for the Blue Ribbon Infrastructure
Commission’s efforts. However, since that process is not yet complete, staff used the numbers from an inter-
departmental staff analysis completed in 2008 and delineated in pages 297-298 of the FY 2011 CIP Budget.
(See Appendix 1, as well as CMR 167:08) These numbers are expressed in 2009 dollars.
Staff quantified the infrastructure needs for fiscal years 2009-2013 at $153.2 million, and the projected backlog
for FY 2014 to 2018 at $55.0 million, for a total ten-year backlog of $208.2 million. The FY 2009-2013 CIP fund-
ing plan included $64.2 million in funding, and the LRFF assumes an additional $61.2 million in funding for
FY 2014-2018, leaving an unfunded backlog of $82.9 million.
In 2008, staff also identified an additional $208 million ($148 million identified by staff in 2008 plus an
assumed $60 million for the Public Safety Building) in Future Infrastructure Needs – meaning needed renova-
tions and replacements of City facilities such as Fire Stations, the Police Building, the MSC, and the Animal
Shelter, that are likely if not inevitable over the next several years. That brings the total infrastructure needs
to $416 million.
In Scenario 4, the General Fund invests an additional $10 million per year in 2012, increasing by 3% per year,
of which $8.3 million pays down the backlog each year (with the pay-down amount also growing by 3% per
year), and the remainder funds a portion of projected Future Needs. In this scenario, the General Fund cumu-
lative deficit increases by $114.6 million beyond that in the Base Model. The backlog is eliminated, and the
unfunded balance of Future Needs is reduced to $179 million by 2021.
Please note that in both infrastructure scenarios, an additional 2 maintenance FTEs have been added, but any
additional operating costs required by the additional infrastructure capital are not included (as these are not
yet quantified).
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS
16 City of Palo Alto
2011
In Infrastructure Scenario 5, the City issues a $100 million Certificate of Participation (COP) Bond at an as-
sumed interest rate of 5% and a 25-year amortization period. Again by investing an additional $10 million
per year (increasing by 3% per year), the General Fund can use the bond proceeds to complete the unfunded
portion of the backlog in the first 3 years, pay its $7.1 million annual debt service, and apply the remaining $3
million towards the Future Needs and additional construction management costs. This scenario also in-
creases the compound GF deficits by about $114.6 million over the ten years; it brings down the Future Needs
balance to $150 million in 2021. However, the City would at that time still owe about $106 million in principal
and interest on the bond.
Note that in this scenario, any cost savings due to completing the backlogged projects in 3 years rather than
10 have not yet been estimated, and are not included in the analysis. Note also that if the bond issued were a
General Obligation Bond, rather than a COP, it would require voter approval, and the property owners
would pay the debt service costs. Therefore the City could devote all of its $10 million per year directly to
infrastructure projects rather than to debt service.
Both of the above Infrastructure scenarios illustrate the order of magnitude of the financial impact to the Gen-
eral Fund of addressing the infrastructure backlog in a timely manner. With an additional $10 million per
year the City could erase the backlog over 10 years without a bond, and much more rapidly with a bond.
Again, precise estimates of the volumes of backlog and Future Needs, as well as cost trade-offs involved with
issuing a COP bond for infrastructure, remain to be developed more completely by Public Works staff in con-
cert with the Blue Ribbon Commission.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS
FY 2010
Actual
FY 2011
Adopted
FY 2011
Midyear FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021
TOTAL REVENUES 144,947 139,433 141,495 144,009 146,326 151,193 156,387 161,600 167,270 173,273 179,150 184,631 190,165
Total Expenditures Before Transfers 131,988 128,475 130,754 134,684 140,915 145,505 150,873 156,924 163,188 169,730 176,480 183,649 191,062
Transfers to Other Funds
Operating Transfers Out 4,737 1,122 1,422 1,167 1,214 1,263 1,314 1,367 1,422 1,479 1,538 1,600 1,664
Transfer to Infrastructure 9,900 9,802 9,802 10,438 10,852 11,294 11,747 12,217 12,706 13,214 13,743 14,293 14,865
Additional Transfer to Insfrastructure to Erase Backlog 8,287 8,536 8,792 9,056 9,328 9,607 9,896 10,193 9,180 -
Additional Transfer to Insfrastructure to fund Future Needs 1,453 1,497 1,544 1,591 1,640 1,691 1,743 1,797 3,171 12,723
Additional Maintenance staff 260 267 273 280 287 294 302 309 317 325
Subtotal Additional Infrastructure Investmt 10,000 10,300 10,609 10,927 11,255 11,593 11,941 12,299 12,668 13,048
TOTAL EXPENDITURES 146,625 139,399 141,978 156,289 163,281 168,671 174,861 181,764 188,909 196,363 204,060 212,210 220,639
GRAND NET SURPLUS (DEFICIT) (1,678)$ 33$ (483)$ (12,280)$ (16,955)$ (17,478)$ (18,474)$ (20,163)$ (21,639)$ (23,090)$ (24,910)$ (27,579)$ (30,473)$
Balance of Unfunded Backlog at year-end (2011 dollars) 82,875$ 74,587$ 66,051$ 57,259$ 48,203$ 38,876$ 29,268$ 19,372$ 9,180$ (0)$ -
Balance of Future Needs at year-end 208,280$ 206,827$ 205,330$ 203,786$ 202,195$ 200,555$ 198,864$ 197,120$ 195,323$ 192,152$ 179,429$
2011-2021 LRFF - SCENARIO 4 - INCREASE INVESTMT BY $10MM PER YR STARTING 2012
Note: Additional operating costs required by additional infrastructure capital are not included in this scenario.
City of Palo Alto 17
2011
Given the City’s limitation in generating new revenue, finding the funding for the additional infrastructure
needs would require a reduction in expenses – including programs and/or services, and salaries and benefits.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS
FY 2010
Actual
FY 2011
Adopted
FY 2011
Midyear FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021
TOTAL REVENUES 144,947 139,433 141,495 144,009 146,326 151,193 156,387 161,600 167,270 173,273 179,150 184,631 190,165
Total Expenditures Before Transfers 131,988 128,475 130,754 134,684 140,915 145,505 150,873 156,924 163,188 169,730 176,480 183,649 191,062
Transfers to Other Funds
Operating Transfers Out 4,737 1,122 1,422 1,167 1,214 1,263 1,314 1,367 1,422 1,479 1,538 1,600 1,664
Transfer to Infrastructure 9,900 9,802 9,802 10,438 10,852 11,294 11,747 12,217 12,706 13,214 13,743 14,293 14,865
Debt Service on Infrastructure Bond 7,099 7,099 7,099 7,099 7,099 7,099 7,099 7,099 7,099 7,099
Additional Transfer to Insfrastructure to Fund Future Needs 2,641 2,934 3,237 3,548 3,869 4,199 4,540 4,890 5,252 5,624
Additional Maintenance staff 260 267 273 280 287 294 302 309 317 325
Subtotal Additional Infrastructure Investmt 10,000 10,300 10,609 10,927 11,255 11,593 11,941 12,299 12,668 13,048
TOTAL EXPENDITURES 146,625 139,399 141,978 156,289 163,281 168,671 174,861 181,764 188,909 196,363 204,060 212,210 220,639
GRAND NET SURPLUS (DEFICIT) (1,678)$ 33$ (483)$ (12,280)$ (16,955)$ (17,478)$ (18,474)$ (20,163)$ (21,639)$ (23,090)$ (24,910)$ (27,579)$ (30,473)$
Balance of Unfunded Backlog at year-end 82,875$ 49,542$ 16,208$ ------ --
Balance of Future Needs at year-end 208,280$ 205,639$ 202,705$ 182,343$ 178,795$ 174,927$ 170,727$ 166,188$ 161,297$ 156,045$ 150,422$
Balance of 25-year Bond "Debt Service Liability" -$ 170,382$ 163,283$ 156,184$ 149,084$ 141,985$ 134,886$ 127,787$ 120,687$ 113,588$ 106,489$
2011-2021 LRFF - SCENARIO 5 - INCREASE INVESTMNT BY $10MM PER YR WITH $100MM CERTIFICATE OF
PARTICIPATION BOND
Note: Additional operating costs required by additional infrastructure capital are not included in this scenario.
Both of these Infrastructure scenarios illustrate
the order of magnitude of the financial impact to
the General Fund of addressing the infrastructure
backlog in a timely manner.
18 City of Palo Alto
2011
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS
The table below summarizes the results of all Alternate Scenarios, as compared to the Base Model.
FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021
10-year Total
(2012-2021)
(2.3) (6.7) (6.9) (7.5) (8.9) (10.0) (11.1) (12.6) (14.9) (17.4) (98.4)
(0.0) - - 0.5 1.4 2.3 3.3 4.2 5.3 6.4 23.3
Resulting Net Surplus
(Deficit)(2.3) (6.7) (6.9) (7.1) (7.5) (7.8) (7.9) (8.4) (9.6) (11.1) (75.1)
(0.0) 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8 13.7
Resulting Net Surplus
(Deficit)(2.3) (5.3) (5.5) (6.2) (7.5) (8.5) (9.6) (11.0) (13.2) (15.7) (84.7)
(0.0) 1.4 2.6 3.3 4.3 5.2 6.1 7.0 8.0 9.0 46.9
Resulting Net Surplus
(Deficit)(2.3) (5.2) (4.2) (4.3) (4.6) (4.8) (5.1) (5.6) (6.9) (8.4) (51.5)
(10.0) (10.3) (10.6) (10.9) (11.3) (11.6) (11.9) (12.3) (12.7) (13.0) (114.6)
Resulting Net Surplus
(Deficit)(12.3) (17.0) (17.5) (18.5) (20.2) (21.6) (23.1) (24.9) (27.6) (30.5) (213.0)
PERS rates increase 1.5% per
year after 2014, rather than by
3% in Base Model
Scenarios
Scenario 1
--- Impact of Alternate Scenarios on Bottom Line ---
SUMMARY OF ALTERNATE SCENARIOS MODIFYING REVISED BASE MODEL
Revised Base Model --- Net
Surplus (Deficit)
(Millions of Dollars)
Long Range Financial Forecast 2011-2021
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
Scenarios 4 and 5
$10 million additional
infrastructure investment
Salary increases deferred by
one additional year
No salary increases for all 10
years
City of Palo Alto 19
2011
CONCLUSIONS
VI. CONCLUSIONS
On a positive note, this Forecast shows an improved fiscal picture compared to the one presented in
February 2010. Last year, the Forecast showed a cumulative deficit of $147.5 million between 2011
and 2020 (ten years). This year, the Base Model projects a $98.4 million deficit over the Forecast pe-
riod (2012-2021). Much of the improvement is due to the significant Budget reset accomplished by
the FY 2011 Adopted Budget.
On the other hand, the Forecast does not includes a plan to address the City’s infrastructure backlog.
Increasing the infrastructure investment significantly – by about $10 million per year – would more
than double the anticipated deficits.
This Forecast brings into sharp focus the necessity for change over the next ten years to address sig-
nificant structural deficits. The increasing cost of employee benefits, above and beyond the growth
in revenue sources, means that employees will need to bear a larger proportion of the cost of those
benefits. Otherwise the City will either need to cut services or aggressively evaluate outsourcing
options for some of those services.
Palo Alto is not alone in finding its pension and health care liabilities to be increasingly difficult to
sustain; many agencies are facing similar choices, and many are exploring outsourcing of services
and decreases in compensation as ways to weather the fiscal storm. While Palo Alto has successfully
begun to restructure benefits with non-safety staff, it needs the participation of all bargaining units.
Public Safety will first need to “catch up” to the Miscellaneous group in its contribution to reducing
deficits, and then all employee groups will need to bear a larger proportion of the cost of benefits
from FY 2013 onwards.
It is staff’s hope that by examining this fiscal snapshot, Council members and staff will hone in on
the issues that must be addressed now to improve the long-term picture. While the FY 2012 budget
will focus on closing next year’s projected deficit, staff and Council must also explore more substan-
tial changes for incorporation into FY 2013 and future budgets.
This Forecast brings into sharp focus the necessity
for change over the next ten years to address sig-
nificant structural deficits...employees will need to
bear a larger proportion of the cost of their benefits.
20 City of Palo Alto
2011
ENDNOTES
VII. ENDNOTES
i. Legislative Analyst’s Office, “The 2011-12 Budget: California’s Fiscal Outlook,” November 2010, page 13
ii. Bloomberg News, “U.S.Economy: Sales at Retailers Climb by Most in Seven Months,” by Timothy R.
Homan, Nov 15, 2010
iii. Joseph Lazzarro, “Tell-Tale Stat: US Underemployment Rate Rose to 17.1% in September,”
www.bloggingstocks.com posted October 11, 2010
iv. Beacon Economics, “Beaconomics: A quarterly economic forecast for the US and California from Beacon
Economics,” Vol. 3, no. 1, January 2011, page 5
v. Courtney Schlisserman and Timothy R. Homan, “Pending home sales surge 10% in October,” San Fran-
cisco Chronicle, December 3, 2010
vi. Beaconomics, Op.Cit, page 12
vii. Pete Carey: “Bay Area home prices, sales dip,” San Jose Mercury News, December 17, 2010
viii. Legislative Analyst’s Office, “The 2011-12 Budget: California’s Fiscal Outlook,” November 2010, page 13-
14
ix. California Dept of Finance “Finance Bulletin,” October 2010
x. Legislative Analyst’s Office, Op.Cit., pages 15-16
xi U.S. Census Bureau News, “Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services October 2010,” released
Nov 15, 2010
xii. Jonathan Cheng, “Dow Rallies 150.91 in Preholiday Sessions,” Wall Street Journal.com, November 24,
2010
xiii. Legislative Analyst’s Office, “The 2011-12 Budget: California’s Fiscal Outlook,” November 2010, page 13-
14
xiv. Tom Abate, “Rise in jobless rate spurs benefits, tax-cut debate,” San Francisco Chronicle, December 4,
2010
xv. Beaconomics, Op.Cit., page 6
xvi. Beacon Economics, “Beaconomics: A Quarterly Economic Forecast for the U.S. & California,” August
2010
xvii. Legislative Analyst’s Office, “The 2011-12 Budget: California’s Fiscal Outlook,” November 2010, page 13
xviii. Michael Powell, “Profits Are Booming. Why Aren’t Jobs?,” New York Times, January 9, 2011
xix. Beaconomics, January, 2011, Op.Cit., pages 11 and 14
xx. Bay Area Council Press Release: “After slight dip over the summer, Bay Area Business Confidence
Trends Upward Again,” December 13, 2010
City of Palo Alto 21
2011
VIII. APPENDICES
APPENDIX 1: EXCERPT FROM CIP BUDGET— BASIS FOR INFRASTRUCTURE
SCENARIO ASSUMPTIONS
APPENDICES
22 City of Palo Alto
2011
APPENDIX 2: ALTERNATE SCENARIOS—SCENARIO 1
APPENDICES
FY 2010
Actual
FY 2011
Adopted
FY 2011
Midyear FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021
Revenues
Sales Taxes 17,991$ 18,218$ 19,507$ 19,646$ 20,320$ 21,085$ 21,888$ 22,750$ 23,649$ 24,594$ 25,295$ 25,940$ 26,638$
Property Taxes 25,982 25,907 25,323 25,830 26,699 27,665 28,734 29,914 31,177 32,581 34,114 35,227 36,186
Transient Occupancy Tax 6,858 7,021 7,400 7,704 7,946 8,196 8,470 8,771 9,091 9,432 9,701 9,968 10,237
Utility User Tax 11,296 11,429 10,824 10,859 11,069 11,329 11,654 11,708 11,976 12,252 12,528 12,796 13,054
Documentary Transfer Tax 3,707 3,613 4,000 4,219 4,377 4,546 4,723 4,908 5,103 5,310 5,504 5,694 5,948
Other Taxes and Fines 2,047 2,330 2,139 2,384 2,455 2,529 2,605 2,683 2,763 2,846 2,932 3,020 3,110
Subtotal: Taxes 67,881 68,518 69,193 70,642 72,866 75,350 78,074 80,734 83,760 87,016 90,074 92,644 95,173
Charges for Services 19,593 20,068 20,924 21,420 22,063 22,724 23,406 24,108 24,832 25,577 26,344 27,134 27,948
Permits and Licenses 4,720 4,533 5,102 4,739 4,882 5,028 5,179 5,334 5,494 5,659 5,829 6,004 6,184
Return on Investment 2,624 1,646 1,337 1,317 1,314 1,331 1,354 1,380 1,412 1,459 1,489 1,516 1,540
Rental Income 14,397 13,716 13,776 13,991 12,150 12,515 12,890 13,277 13,675 14,086 14,508 14,943 15,392
From other agencies 333 155 221 158 163 168 173 178 183 189 194 200 206
Charges to Other Funds 11,027 10,622 10,681 10,745 11,067 11,399 11,741 12,093 12,456 12,829 13,214 13,611 14,019
Other revenues 2,360 1,490 1,584 1,544 1,590 1,638 1,687 1,738 1,790 1,844 1,899 1,956 2,015
Total Revenues Before Transfers 122,936 120,748 122,818 124,555 126,094 130,152 134,505 138,843 143,602 148,658 153,551 158,008 162,477
Operating Transfers-In 22,011 18,684 18,677 19,453 20,232 21,041 21,882 22,758 23,668 24,615 25,599 26,623 27,688
TOTAL REVENUES 144,947 139,433 141,495 144,008 146,326 151,193 156,387 161,600 167,270 173,273 179,150 184,631 190,165
Expenditures
Salaries 61,080 59,020 59,701 60,661 61,798 62,843 64,113 65,409 66,730 68,078 69,453 70,855 72,286
Benefits 32,900 29,525 30,458 33,593 37,136 40,684 43,040 45,612 48,296 51,155 54,118 57,390 60,794
Subtotal: Salaries and Benefits 93,980 88,545 90,159 94,254 98,934 103,527 107,153 111,021 115,026 119,233 123,571 128,245 133,079
Contract Services 8,899 10,180 11,012 10,382 10,833 11,116 11,449 11,792 12,146 12,510 12,885 13,272 13,670
Supplies & Materials 2,867 3,242 3,289 3,541 4,112 4,235 4,362 4,493 4,628 4,767 4,910 5,057 5,209
General Expense 9,341 10,022 9,918 10,172 10,375 10,686 11,007 11,337 11,677 12,027 12,388 12,760 13,143
Rents and Leases 627 663 641 774 789 813 837 862 888 915 942 970 999
Facilities and Equipment 1,734 452 442 459 468 482 496 511 526 542 558 575 592
Allocated Charges 14,540 15,371 15,293 15,102 15,404 14,646 15,085 15,538 16,004 16,484 16,979 17,488 18,013
Total Expenditures Before Transfers 131,988 128,475 130,754 134,684 140,915 145,505 150,389 155,554 160,895 166,478 172,233 178,367 184,705
Transfers to Other Funds
Operating Transfers Out 4,737 1,122 1,422 1,167 1,214 1,263 1,314 1,367 1,422 1,479 1,538 1,600 1,664
Transfer to Infrastructure 9,900 9,802 9,802 10,438 10,852 11,294 11,747 12,217 12,706 13,214 13,743 14,293 14,865
TOTAL EXPENDITURES 146,625 139,399 141,978 146,289 152,981 158,062 163,450 169,138 175,023 181,171 187,514 194,260 201,234
Net Operating Surplus/(Gap) (1,678) 33 (483) (2,281) (6,655) (6,869) (7,063) (7,537) (7,753) (7,898) (8,364) (9,629) (11,069)
Drawdown on BSR for BOA - - - - - - - - - - -
Net Operating Surplus/(Gap) (1,678) 33 (483) (2,281) (6,655) (6,869) (7,063) (7,537) (7,753) (7,898) (8,364) (9,629) (11,069)
Drawdown on Budget Stabilization Reserve
Comprehensive Annual Fin. Rpt. Recon. (89)
Subtotal (89) - - - - - - - - - - -
GRAND NET SURPLUS (DEFICIT) (1,767)$ 33$ (483)$ (2,281)$ (6,655)$ (6,869)$ (7,063)$ (7,537)$ (7,753)$ (7,898)$ (8,364)$ (9,629)$ (11,069)$
2011-2021 LRFF - SCENARIO 1 - PERS INCREASES LESS STEEP IN OUT YEARS
*In FY 2011, Adopted Budget assumed 90-10 plan implementation for Miscellaneous group effective April 1 2011.
For years 2015-2021, PERS rates are assumed to increase 1.5% per year.
City of Palo Alto 23
2011
APPENDICES
FY 2011
Midyear FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021
Cumulative %
Change
2010-2021
Revenues
Sales Taxes 8.43% 0.71% 3.43% 3.76% 3.81% 3.94% 3.95% 4.00% 2.85% 2.55% 2.69%
Property Taxes (2.54%) 2.00% 3.36% 3.62% 3.86% 4.11% 4.22% 4.50% 4.71% 3.26% 2.72%
Transient Occupancy Tax 7.90% 4.11% 3.13% 3.15% 3.35% 3.55% 3.65% 3.75% 2.85% 2.75% 2.70%
Utility User Tax (4.18%) 0.32% 1.93% 2.35% 2.87% 0.46% 2.29% 2.30% 2.25% 2.14% 2.02%
Documentary Transfer Tax 7.90% 5.48% 3.75% 3.85% 3.90% 3.92% 3.97% 4.05% 3.65% 3.45% 4.47%
Other Taxes and Fines 4.52% 11.44% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Subtotal: Taxes 1.93% 2.09% 3.15% 3.41% 3.62% 3.41% 3.75% 3.89% 3.51% 2.85% 2.73%40.21%
Charges for Services 2.37% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Permits and Licenses 8.10% -7.11% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Return on Investment (49.07%) -1.49% -0.24% 1.31% 1.76% 1.91% 2.31% 3.38% 2.01% 1.81% 1.61%
Rental Income (4.31%) 1.56% -13.15% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
From other agencies (33.73%) -28.51% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Charges to Other Funds (3.14%) 0.59% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Other revenues (32.88%) -2.53% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Total Revenues Before Transfers (0.10%) 1.41% 1.24% 3.22% 3.34% 3.23% 3.43% 3.52% 3.29% 2.90% 2.83%32.16%
Operating Transfers-In (15.15%) 4.15% 4.01% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00%
TOTAL REVENUES (2.38%) 1.78% 1.61% 3.33% 3.44% 3.33% 3.51% 3.59% 3.39% 3.06% 3.00%31.20%
Expenditures
Salaries (2.26%) 1.61% 1.87% 1.69% 2.02% 2.02% 2.02% 2.02% 2.02% 2.02% 2.02%18.35%
Benefits (7.42%) 10.29% 10.55% 9.55% 5.79% 5.98% 5.88% 5.92% 5.79% 6.05% 5.93%
Subtotal: Salaries and Benefits (4.07%) 4.54% 4.96% 4.64% 3.50% 3.61% 3.61% 3.66% 3.64% 3.78% 3.77%41.60%
Contract Services 23.74% -5.72% 4.34% 2.61% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Supplies & Materials 14.73% 7.66% 16.13% 2.99% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 2.99% 3.01%
General Expense 6.18% 2.56% 2.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Rents and Leases 2.23% 20.75% 1.94% 3.04% 2.95% 2.99% 3.02% 3.04% 2.95% 2.97% 2.99%
Facilities and Equipment (74.51%) 3.85% 1.96% 2.99% 2.90% 3.02% 2.94% 3.04% 2.95% 3.05% 2.96%
Allocated Charges 5.18% -1.25% 2.00% -4.92% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Total Expenditures Before Transfers (0.93%) 3.01% 4.63% 3.26% 3.36% 3.43% 3.43% 3.47% 3.46% 3.56% 3.55%39.94%
Transfers to Other Funds
Operating Transfers Out (69.99%) -17.92% 4.03% 4.04% 4.04% 4.03% 4.02% 4.01% 3.99% 4.03% 4.00%
Transfer to Infrastructure (0.99%) 6.49% 3.97% 4.07% 4.01% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00%
TOTAL EXPENDITURES (3.17%) 3.04% 4.57% 3.32% 3.41% 3.48% 3.48% 3.51% 3.50% 3.60% 3.59%37.24%
Net Operating Surplus/(Gap)(71.21%) 372.25% 191.69% 3.21% 2.83% 6.71% 2.86% 1.87% 5.89% 15.13% 14.96%
SCENARIO 1 - PERCENTAGE CHANGES
24 City of Palo Alto
2011
APPENDIX 2: ALTERNATE SCENARIOS—SCENARIO 2
APPENDICES
FY 2010
Actual
FY 2011
Adopted
FY 2011
Midyear FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021
Revenues
Sales Taxes 17,991$ 18,218$ 19,507$ 19,646$ 20,320$ 21,085$ 21,888$ 22,750$ 23,649$ 24,594$ 25,295$ 25,940$ 26,638$
Property Taxes 25,982 25,907 25,323 25,830 26,699 27,665 28,734 29,914 31,177 32,581 34,114 35,227 36,186
Transient Occupancy Tax 6,858 7,021 7,400 7,704 7,946 8,196 8,470 8,771 9,091 9,432 9,701 9,968 10,237
Utility User Tax 11,296 11,429 10,824 10,859 11,069 11,329 11,654 11,708 11,976 12,252 12,528 12,796 13,054
Documentary Transfer Tax 3,707 3,613 4,000 4,219 4,377 4,546 4,723 4,908 5,103 5,310 5,504 5,694 5,948
Other Taxes and Fines 2,047 2,330 2,139 2,384 2,455 2,529 2,605 2,683 2,763 2,846 2,932 3,020 3,110
Subtotal: Taxes 67,881 68,518 69,193 70,642 72,866 75,350 78,074 80,734 83,760 87,016 90,074 92,644 95,173
Charges for Services 19,593 20,068 20,924 21,420 22,063 22,724 23,406 24,108 24,832 25,577 26,344 27,134 27,948
Permits and Licenses 4,720 4,533 5,102 4,739 4,882 5,028 5,179 5,334 5,494 5,659 5,829 6,004 6,184
Return on Investment 2,624 1,646 1,337 1,317 1,314 1,331 1,354 1,380 1,412 1,459 1,489 1,516 1,540
Rental Income 14,397 13,716 13,776 13,991 12,150 12,515 12,890 13,277 13,675 14,086 14,508 14,943 15,392
From other agencies 333 155 221 158 163 168 173 178 183 189 194 200 206
Charges to Other Funds 11,027 10,622 10,681 10,745 11,067 11,399 11,741 12,093 12,456 12,829 13,214 13,611 14,019
Other revenues 2,360 1,490 1,584 1,544 1,590 1,638 1,687 1,738 1,790 1,844 1,899 1,956 2,015
Total Revenues Before Transfers 122,936 120,748 122,818 124,555 126,094 130,152 134,505 138,843 143,602 148,658 153,551 158,008 162,477
Operating Transfers-In 22,011 18,684 18,677 19,453 20,232 21,041 21,882 22,758 23,668 24,615 25,599 26,623 27,688
TOTAL REVENUES 144,947 139,433 141,495 144,008 146,326 151,193 156,387 161,600 167,270 173,273 179,150 184,631 190,165
Expenditures
Salaries 61,080 59,020 59,701 60,661 60,661 61,798 62,843 64,113 65,409 66,730 68,078 69,453 70,855
Benefits 32,900 29,525 30,458 33,593 36,949 40,366 43,421 46,843 50,411 54,190 58,108 62,372 66,806
Subtotal: Salaries and Benefits 93,980 88,545 90,159 94,254 97,610 102,164 106,264 110,956 115,820 120,920 126,186 131,825 137,661
Contract Services 8,899 10,180 11,012 10,382 10,833 11,116 11,449 11,792 12,146 12,510 12,885 13,272 13,670
Supplies & Materials 2,867 3,242 3,289 3,541 4,112 4,235 4,362 4,493 4,628 4,767 4,910 5,057 5,209
General Expense 9,341 10,022 9,918 10,172 10,375 10,686 11,007 11,337 11,677 12,027 12,388 12,760 13,143
Rents and Leases 627 663 641 774 789 813 837 862 888 915 942 970 999
Facilities and Equipment 1,734 452 442 459 468 482 496 511 526 542 558 575 592
Allocated Charges 14,540 15,371 15,293 15,102 15,404 14,646 15,085 15,538 16,004 16,484 16,979 17,488 18,013
Total Expenditures Before Transfers 131,988 128,475 130,754 134,684 139,591 144,142 149,500 155,489 161,689 168,165 174,848 181,947 189,287
Transfers to Other Funds
Operating Transfers Out 4,737 1,122 1,422 1,167 1,214 1,263 1,314 1,367 1,422 1,479 1,538 1,600 1,664
Transfer to Infrastructure 9,900 9,802 9,802 10,438 10,852 11,294 11,747 12,217 12,706 13,214 13,743 14,293 14,865
TOTAL EXPENDITURES 146,625 139,399 141,978 146,289 151,657 156,699 162,561 169,073 175,817 182,858 190,129 197,840 205,816
Net Operating Surplus/(Gap) (1,678) 33 (483) (2,281) (5,331) (5,505) (6,173) (7,473) (8,547) (9,585) (10,978) (13,208) (15,651)
Drawdown on BSR for BOA - - - - - - - - - - -
Net Operating Surplus/(Gap) (1,678) 33 (483) (2,281) (5,331) (5,505) (6,173) (7,473) (8,547) (9,585) (10,978) (13,208) (15,651)
Drawdown on Budget Stabilization Reserve
Comprehensive Annual Fin. Rpt. Recon. (89)
Subtotal (89) - - - - - - - - - - -
GRAND NET SURPLUS (DEFICIT) (1,767)$ 33$ (483)$ (2,281)$ (5,331)$ (5,505)$ (6,173)$ (7,473)$ (8,547)$ (9,585)$ (10,978)$ (13,208)$ (15,651)$
*In FY 2011, Adopted Budget assumed 90-10 plan implementation for Miscellaneous group effective April 1 2011.
2011-2021 LRFF - SCENARIO 2 - ALL SALARY INCREASES DEFERRED BY ONE YEAR
City of Palo Alto 25
2011
APPENDICES
FY 2011
Midyear FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021
Cumulative %
Change
2010-2021
Revenues
Sales Taxes 8.43% 0.71% 3.43% 3.76% 3.81% 3.94% 3.95% 4.00% 2.85% 2.55% 2.69%
Property Taxes (2.54%) 2.00% 3.36% 3.62% 3.86% 4.11% 4.22% 4.50% 4.71% 3.26% 2.72%
Transient Occupancy Tax 7.90% 4.11% 3.13% 3.15% 3.35% 3.55% 3.65% 3.75% 2.85% 2.75% 2.70%
Utility User Tax (4.18%) 0.32% 1.93% 2.35% 2.87% 0.46% 2.29% 2.30% 2.25% 2.14% 2.02%
Documentary Transfer Tax 7.90% 5.48% 3.75% 3.85% 3.90% 3.92% 3.97% 4.05% 3.65% 3.45% 4.47%
Other Taxes and Fines 4.52% 11.44% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Subtotal: Taxes 1.93% 2.09% 3.15% 3.41% 3.62% 3.41% 3.75% 3.89% 3.51% 2.85% 2.73%40.21%
Charges for Services 2.37% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Permits and Licenses 8.10% -7.11% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Return on Investment (49.07%) -1.49% -0.24% 1.31% 1.76% 1.91% 2.31% 3.38% 2.01% 1.81% 1.61%
Rental Income (4.31%) 1.56% -13.15% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
From other agencies (33.73%) -28.51% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Charges to Other Funds (3.14%) 0.59% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Other revenues (32.88%) -2.53% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Total Revenues Before Transfers (0.10%) 1.41% 1.24% 3.22% 3.34% 3.23% 3.43% 3.52% 3.29% 2.90% 2.83%32.16%
Operating Transfers-In (15.15%) 4.15% 4.01% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00%
TOTAL REVENUES (2.38%) 1.78% 1.61% 3.33% 3.44% 3.33% 3.51% 3.59% 3.39% 3.06% 3.00%31.20%
Expenditures
Salaries (2.26%) 1.61% 0.00% 1.87% 1.69% 2.02% 2.02% 2.02% 2.02% 2.02% 2.02%16.00%
Benefits (7.42%) 10.29% 9.99% 9.25% 7.57% 7.88% 7.62% 7.49% 7.23% 7.34% 7.11%
Subtotal: Salaries and Benefits (4.07%) 4.54% 3.56% 4.67% 4.01% 4.42% 4.38% 4.40% 4.35% 4.47% 4.43%46.48%
Contract Services 23.74% -5.72% 4.34% 2.61% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Supplies & Materials 14.73% 7.66% 16.13% 2.99% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 2.99% 3.01%
General Expense 6.18% 2.56% 2.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Rents and Leases 2.23% 20.75% 1.94% 3.04% 2.95% 2.99% 3.02% 3.04% 2.95% 2.97% 2.99%
Facilities and Equipment (74.51%) 3.85% 1.96% 2.99% 2.90% 3.02% 2.94% 3.04% 2.95% 3.05% 2.96%
Allocated Charges 5.18% -1.25% 2.00% -4.92% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Total Expenditures Before Transfers (0.93%) 3.01% 3.64% 3.26% 3.72% 4.01% 3.99% 4.01% 3.97% 4.06% 4.03%43.41%
Transfers to Other Funds
Operating Transfers Out (69.99%) -17.92% 4.03% 4.04% 4.04% 4.03% 4.02% 4.01% 3.99% 4.03% 4.00%
Transfer to Infrastructure (0.99%) 6.49% 3.97% 4.07% 4.01% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00%
TOTAL EXPENDITURES (3.17%) 3.04% 3.67% 3.32% 3.74% 4.01% 3.99% 4.00% 3.98% 4.06% 4.03%40.37%
Net Operating Surplus/(Gap)(71.21%) 372.25% 133.66% 3.27% 12.13% 21.05% 14.38% 12.14% 14.54% 20.31% 18.49%
SCENARIO 2 - PERCENTAGE CHANGES
26 City of Palo Alto
2011
APPENDICES
FY 2010
Actual
FY 2011
Adopted
FY 2011
Midyear FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021
Revenues
Sales Taxes 17,991$ 18,218$ 19,507$ 19,646$ 20,320$ 21,085$ 21,888$ 22,750$ 23,649$ 24,594$ 25,295$ 25,940$ 26,638$
Property Taxes 25,982 25,907 25,323 25,830 26,699 27,665 28,734 29,914 31,177 32,581 34,114 35,227 36,186
Transient Occupancy Tax 6,858 7,021 7,400 7,704 7,946 8,196 8,470 8,771 9,091 9,432 9,701 9,968 10,237
Utility User Tax 11,296 11,429 10,824 10,859 11,069 11,329 11,654 11,708 11,976 12,252 12,528 12,796 13,054
Documentary Transfer Tax 3,707 3,613 4,000 4,219 4,377 4,546 4,723 4,908 5,103 5,310 5,504 5,694 5,948
Other Taxes and Fines 2,047 2,330 2,139 2,384 2,455 2,529 2,605 2,683 2,763 2,846 2,932 3,020 3,110
Subtotal: Taxes 67,881 68,518 69,193 70,642 72,866 75,350 78,074 80,734 83,760 87,016 90,074 92,644 95,173
Charges for Services 19,593 20,068 20,924 21,420 22,063 22,724 23,406 24,108 24,832 25,577 26,344 27,134 27,948
Permits and Licenses 4,720 4,533 5,102 4,739 4,882 5,028 5,179 5,334 5,494 5,659 5,829 6,004 6,184
Return on Investment 2,624 1,646 1,337 1,317 1,314 1,331 1,354 1,380 1,412 1,459 1,489 1,516 1,540
Rental Income 14,397 13,716 13,776 13,991 12,150 12,515 12,890 13,277 13,675 14,086 14,508 14,943 15,392
From other agencies 333 155 221 158 163 168 173 178 183 189 194 200 206
Charges to Other Funds 11,027 10,622 10,681 10,745 11,067 11,399 11,741 12,093 12,456 12,829 13,214 13,611 14,019
Other revenues 2,360 1,490 1,584 1,544 1,590 1,638 1,687 1,738 1,790 1,844 1,899 1,956 2,015
Total Revenues Before Transfers 122,936 120,748 122,818 124,555 126,094 130,152 134,505 138,843 143,602 148,658 153,551 158,008 162,477
Operating Transfers-In 22,011 18,684 18,677 19,453 20,232 21,041 21,882 22,758 23,668 24,615 25,599 26,623 27,688
TOTAL REVENUES 144,947 139,433 141,495 144,008 146,326 151,193 156,387 161,600 167,270 173,273 179,150 184,631 190,165
Expenditures
Salaries 61,080 59,020 59,701 60,661 60,530 60,661 60,661 60,661 60,661 60,661 60,661 60,661 60,661
Benefits 32,900 29,525 30,458 33,593 36,967 40,232 43,703 47,435 51,437 55,738 60,192 64,886 69,777
Subtotal: Salaries and Benefits 93,980 88,545 90,159 94,254 97,497 100,893 104,364 108,096 112,098 116,399 120,853 125,547 130,438
Contract Services 8,899 10,180 11,012 10,382 10,833 11,116 11,449 11,792 12,146 12,510 12,885 13,272 13,670
Supplies & Materials 2,867 3,242 3,289 3,541 4,112 4,235 4,362 4,493 4,628 4,767 4,910 5,057 5,209
General Expense 9,341 10,022 9,918 10,172 10,375 10,686 11,007 11,337 11,677 12,027 12,388 12,760 13,143
Rents and Leases 627 663 641 774 789 813 837 862 888 915 942 970 999
Facilities and Equipment 1,734 452 442 459 468 482 496 511 526 542 558 575 592
Allocated Charges 14,540 15,371 15,293 15,102 15,404 14,646 15,085 15,538 16,004 16,484 16,979 17,488 18,013
Total Expenditures Before Transfers 131,988 128,475 130,754 134,684 139,478 142,871 147,600 152,629 157,967 163,644 169,515 175,669 182,064
Transfers to Other Funds
Operating Transfers Out 4,737 1,122 1,422 1,167 1,214 1,263 1,314 1,367 1,422 1,479 1,538 1,600 1,664
Transfer to Infrastructure 9,900 9,802 9,802 10,438 10,852 11,294 11,747 12,217 12,706 13,214 13,743 14,293 14,865
TOTAL EXPENDITURES 146,625 139,399 141,978 146,289 151,544 155,428 160,661 166,213 172,095 178,337 184,796 191,562 198,593
Net Operating Surplus/(Gap) (1,678) 33 (483) (2,281) (5,219) (4,235) (4,274) (4,612) (4,825) (5,064) (5,646) (6,930) (8,428)
Drawdown on BSR for BOA - - - - - - - - - - -
Net Operating Surplus/(Gap)(1,678) 33 (483) (2,281) (5,219) (4,235) (4,274) (4,612) (4,825) (5,064) (5,646) (6,930) (8,428)
Drawdown on Budget Stabilization Reserve
Comprehensive Annual Fin. Rpt. Recon. (89)
Subtotal (89) - - - - - - - - - - -
GRAND NET SURPLUS (DEFICIT) (1,767)$ 33$ (483)$ (2,281)$ (5,219)$ (4,235)$ (4,274)$ (4,612)$ (4,825)$ (5,064)$ (5,646)$ (6,930)$ (8,428)$
*In FY 2011, Adopted Budget assumed 90-10 plan implementation for M iscellaneous group effective April 1 2011.
2011-2021 LRFF - SCENARIO 3 - NO SALARY INCREASES
APPENDIX 2: ALTERNATE SCENARIOS, SCENARIO 3
City of Palo Alto 27
2011
APPENDICES
FY 2011
Midyear FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021
Cumulative %
Change
2010-2021
Revenues
Sales Taxes 8.43% 0.71% 3.43% 3.76% 3.81% 3.94% 3.95% 4.00% 2.85% 2.55% 2.69%
Property Taxes (2.54%) 2.00% 3.36% 3.62% 3.86% 4.11% 4.22% 4.50% 4.71% 3.26% 2.72%
Transient Occupancy Tax 7.90% 4.11% 3.13% 3.15% 3.35% 3.55% 3.65% 3.75% 2.85% 2.75% 2.70%
Utility User Tax (4.18%) 0.32% 1.93% 2.35% 2.87% 0.46% 2.29% 2.30% 2.25% 2.14% 2.02%
Documentary Transfer Tax 7.90% 5.48% 3.75% 3.85% 3.90% 3.92% 3.97% 4.05% 3.65% 3.45% 4.47%
Other Taxes and Fines 4.52% 11.44% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Subtotal: Taxes 1.93% 2.09% 3.15% 3.41% 3.62% 3.41% 3.75% 3.89% 3.51% 2.85% 2.73%40.21%
Charges for Services 2.37% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Permits and Licenses 8.10% -7.11% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Return on Investment (49.07%) -1.49% -0.24% 1.31% 1.76% 1.91% 2.31% 3.38% 2.01% 1.81% 1.61%
Rental Income (4.31%) 1.56% -13.15% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
From other agencies (33.73%) -28.51% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Charges to Other Funds (3.14%) 0.59% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Other revenues (32.88%) -2.53% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Total Revenues Before Trans (0.10%) 1.41% 1.24% 3.22% 3.34% 3.23% 3.43% 3.52% 3.29% 2.90% 2.83%32.16%
Operating Transfers-In (15.15%) 4.15% 4.01% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00%
TOTAL REVENUES (2.38%) 1.78% 1.61% 3.33% 3.44% 3.33% 3.51% 3.59% 3.39% 3.06% 3.00%31.20%
Expenditures
Salaries (2.26%) 1.61% -0.22% 0.22% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%-0.69%
Benefits (7.42%) 10.29% 10.04% 8.83% 8.63% 8.54% 8.44% 8.36% 7.99% 7.80% 7.54%
Subtotal: Salaries and Benefi (4.07%) 4.54% 3.44% 3.48% 3.44% 3.58% 3.70% 3.84% 3.83% 3.88% 3.90%38.79%
Contract Services 23.74% -5.72% 4.34% 2.61% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Supplies & Materials 14.73% 7.66% 16.13% 2.99% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 2.99% 3.01%
General Expense 6.18% 2.56% 2.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Rents and Leases 2.23% 20.75% 1.94% 3.04% 2.95% 2.99% 3.02% 3.04% 2.95% 2.97% 2.99%
Facilities and Equipment (74.51%) 3.85% 1.96% 2.99% 2.90% 3.02% 2.94% 3.04% 2.95% 3.05% 2.96%
Allocated Charges 5.18% -1.25% 2.00% -4.92% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Total Expenditures Before Tr (0.93%) 3.01% 3.56% 2.43% 3.31% 3.41% 3.50% 3.59% 3.59% 3.63% 3.64%37.94%
Transfers to Other Funds
Operating Transfers Out (69.99%) -17.92% 4.03% 4.04% 4.04% 4.03% 4.02% 4.01% 3.99% 4.03% 4.00%
Transfer to Infrastructure (0.99%) 6.49% 3.97% 4.07% 4.01% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00%
TOTAL EXPENDITURES (3.17%) 3.04% 3.59% 2.56% 3.37% 3.46% 3.54% 3.63% 3.62% 3.66% 3.67%35.44%
Net Operating Surplus/(Gap)(71.21%) 372.25% 128.74% -18.86% 0.94% 7.91% 4.61% 4.95% 11.50% 22.75% 21.62%
SCENARIO 3 - PERCENTAGE CHANGES
28 City of Palo Alto
2011
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City of Palo Alto (ID # 1446)
City Council Staff Report
Report Type: Action Items Meeting Date: 3/14/2011
March 14, 2011 Page 1 of 9
(ID # 1446)
Council Priority: City Finances
Title: Long Range Financial Forecast 2011-2021
Subject: Acceptance of the Long Range Financial Forecast 2011-2021
From:City Manager
Lead Department: Administrative Services
Recommendation
Staff recommends that the City Council review and accept the attached forecast of revenues
and expenses, as well as revisions requested by the Finance Committee and described below.
Background
Attached to this report is the City’s updated General Fund Long Range Financial Forecast (LRFF)
for the fiscal years 2011 through 2021, along with CMR 1315:11 which accompanied the report
presented to the Finance Committee on February 1, 2011. After Council reviews and gives final
direction on the Forecast, staff will revise and reprint the report.
The LRFF identifies key issues that will guide the upcoming FY 2012 budget process and affect
the City’s future financial condition. It is not, however, itself a budget; nor is it a commitment to
implement the spending or revenues outlined in the Forecast.
Discussion
Due to the slow pace of the economic recovery and diminished sources of City revenues, our
Forecast assumes slow growth in all revenue categories, and slower salary growth than in past
Forecasts. On the expense side, pension costs show significant increases due to the reduced
2009 investment performance of the PERS portfolio and revised demographic assumptions
adopted by PERS.
The Base Model included in the attached report and presented to the Finance Committee
included a number of assumptions which the Finance Committee believed to be overly
optimistic. Specifically, the Finance Committee requested the following changes to the Base
Model:
March 14, 2011 Page 2 of 9
(ID # 1446)
1. The Base Model assumed health care cost increases in line with the assumptions used in our
January 2009 Retiree Medical Actuarial Valuation –6.5% increases in the first three years of the
forecast, and 6.0% increases in the last seven years. The Finance Committee asked us to use
10% annual cost increases (as was assumed in our Pessimistic Scenario, on page 15 of the
report) given the City’s history of double digit health care cost increases over the last 10-year
period and the anticipated impact of healthcare reform legislation on these costs.
2. The Base Model incorporated Transient Occupancy Tax revenue from the Ming’s Hotel,
beginning in FY 2013. The Finance Committee asked staff to delete that revenue, due to the
uncertainty of the Hotel’s opening date.
3. The Base Model assumed a continued 7.75% discount rate for the PERS investment portfolio,
while the Pessimistic Scenario assumed a revised 7.5% discount rate. The Finance Committee
asked that the Base Model include the lower discount rate since the PERS Board is likely to vote
to approve an investment mix that will result in this rate of return. Staff assumed that the PERS
rate increases resulting from the discount rate change will be in the middle of the range
indicated by CalPERS, starting in 2013.
4. The original Base Model assumed sharply increasing PERS rates in FY 2012, 2013, and 2014,
due to the latest PERS actuarial report. After 2014, however, the Base Model assumed no
further increases for the duration of the Forecast period. Our Pessimistic Scenario assumed 3%
annual increases after 2014. The Finance Committee requested that we use the latter
assumption in the Revised Base Model since it is likely that PERS rate increases will continue
into the future.
5. Lastly, the Finance Committee asked that the Base Model include, at a minimum, an
additional $10 million per year invested in infrastructure, beginning in FY 2012, increasing by
3% a year, as we had shown in two of our alternate Infrastructure scenarios.
In addition to the five changes above requested by the Finance Committee, staff also made an
additional revision to the Base Model:
6. The Base Model had assumed that no staff would receive a salary increase in 2012, but that
in 2013, Miscellaneous employees, after three years of salary freezes, would receive a 2%
increase. Public safety employees were assumed to begin 2% annual increases in 2014 after a
two-year salary freeze. Staff has revised the model so that all bargaining units have three years
of no salary increases before receiving 2% annual increases.
The bottom-line effects of each of the above changes to the Base Model are summarized in
Chart 1 on the following page:
March 14, 2011 Page 3 of 9
(ID # 1446)
Chart 1: Impacts of Finance Committee Requested Changes to Original LRFF Base Model
FY
2012
FY
2013
FY
2014
FY
2015
FY
2016
FY
2017
FY
2018 FY 2019
FY
2020
FY
2021
10-year
Total
(2012-
2021)
Original Base Model Net Surplus (Deficit)
(2.2)
(4.3)
(4.4)
(3.3)
(2.4)
(1.1)0.4 1.7 2.3 2.9
(10.4)
Finance Committee-Requested Changes*
1
Health Care Costs Increase 10% per
year
(0.1)
(0.4)
(0.8)
(1.2)
(1.7)
(2.2)
(2.8)(3.5)
(4.3)
(5.2)
(22.1)
2
Eliminate assumed TOT revenue from
Ming's Hotel -
(0.3)
(0.3)
(0.3)
(0.3)
(0.3)
(0.4)(0.4)
(0.4)
(0.4)
(3.1)
3
Assume PERS discount rate decreases
to 7.5% -
(1.6)
(1.7)
(1.7)
(1.7)
(1.8)
(1.8)(1.8)
(1.9)
(1.9)
(16.0)
4
Assume PERS rates increase 3% per
year from 2015-2021
(1.8)
(3.7)
(5.7)
(7.7)(9.8)
(12.0)
(14.3)
(55.0)
5
Additional $10MM/yr infrastructure
investment
(10.0)
(10.3)
(10.6)
(10.9)
(11.3)
(11.6)
(11.9)
(12.3)
(12.7)
(13.0)
(114.6)
6
All units with 3-year salary freeze
(one-year deferral of PD increase) - - - 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 2.3
Resulting Revised Base Model Net Surplus
(Deficit)
(12.3)
(17.0)
(17.5)
(18.5)
(20.2)
(21.6)
(23.1)
(24.9)
(27.6)
(30.5)
(213.0)
* Change #6 was added by staff without Finance Committee request.
Note that impacts of the individual changes are imprecise due to the compounding impacts of all the changes taken together.
Given the six requested changes described above, the Revised Base Model is summarized in
Chart 2 below (See Attachment B for complete Revised Base Model).
March 14, 2011 Page 4 of 9
(ID # 1446)
Chart 2: Summary of Base Model Revised as Requested by Finance Committee
2011-2021 LRFF -SUMMARY OF BASE MODEL REVISED AS REQUESTED BY FINANCE COMMITTEE
FY 2011
Adopted
FY 2011
Projected FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021
TOTAL REVENUES 139,433 140,962 144,009 146,326 151,193 156,387 161,601 167,270 173,273 179,150 184,632 190,165
ORIG INFRASTR INVESTMT INCL.9,802 10,438 10,852 11,294 11,747 12,217 12,706 13,214 13,743 14,293 14,865
TOTAL EXPENDITURES 139,399 141,899 146,289 152,981 158,062 163,934 170,508 177,316 184,423 191,761 199,542 207,591
SUBTOTAL NET SURPLUS
(DEFICIT)33 (937)(2,280)(6,655)(6,869)(7,547)(8,908)(10,046)(11,150)(12,611)(14,911)(17,426)
ADDITIONAL INFRASTR
INVESTMT*--10,000 10,300 10,609 10,927 11,255 11,593 11,941 12,299 12,668 13,048
GRAND NET SURPLUS (DEFICIT)$ 33 $ -$(12,280)
$
(16,955)
$
(17,478)
$
(18,474)
$
(20,163)
$
(21,639)
$
(23,090)
$
(24,910)
$
(27,579)
$
(30,473)
TOTAL INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT 9,802 20,438 21,152 21,903 22,674 23,472 24,299 25,155 26,042 26,961 27,913
* Per Finance Committee Request, pending Council direction
The Revised Base Model shows a projected net deficit for FY 2011 of $0.9 million, and a deficit
of $12.3 million for FY 2012. Over the ten-year period from FY 2012 through FY 2021,
cumulative deficits are projected at $213.0 million.
Council direction on infrastructure funding is still pending. The Council has established an
Infrastructure Blue Ribbon Commission to identify funding solutions for the City’s unmet and
deferred infrastructure maintenance needs. Without the additional $10 million infrastructure
investment, the deficit would be projected to decrease to $2.3 million in FY 2012 and the
cumulative projected deficit for the ten-year period would be $98.4 million. The FY 2012
proposed budget will address the $2.3 million gap.
Given that the estimated (unaudited) Budget Stabilization Reserve balance for June 30,2011 is
$26.5 million, that Reserve would be depleted in fiscal year 2013, or early in fiscal year 2016
without the additional infrastructure investment, if the City were to rely only on reserves to
balance its budgets. Moreover, the Infrastructure Reserve is projected to dip to $3.81 million at
year-end FY 2011, having started the year at $8.97 million. This makes it clear that permanent
changes are needed to match resources with expenditures to address this projected long-term
structural gap.
Chart 3 shows the annual surpluses (deficits) in the original LRFF Base Model (as presented to
the Finance Committee on February 1), the Based Model revised as requested by the Finance
Committee with the exception of the additional infrastructure investment, and the Base Model
as revised by all five of the Finance Committee requests.
March 14, 2011 Page 5 of 9
(ID # 1446)
Chart 3
LRFF Annual Surplus (Deficit) in Original and
Revised Base Models
(2.2)(4.3)(4.4)(3.3)(2.4)(1.1)0.4 1.7 2.3 2.9
(12.3)
(17.0)(17.5)(18.5)(20.2)(21.6)(23.1)(24.9)
(27.6)
(30.5)
(10.2)(10.4)(10.6)(11.5)(12.7)(13.6)(12.2)
(14.2)(15.0)(14.6)
(35.0)
(30.0)
(25.0)
(20.0)
(15.0)
(10.0)
(5.0)
-
5.0
FY
201
2
FY
201
3
FY
201
4
FY
201
5
FY
201
6
FY
201
7
FY
201
8
FY
201
9
FY
202
0
FY
202
1
Annual Surplus (Deficit) in Millions $$
Original Base Model Net Surplus (Deficit)Finance Committee Requested Changes but not Infrast
All Finance Committee-Requested Changes
In addition to the Alternate Scenarios prepared as part of the original LRFF report, staff added
the following three scenarios for comparison purposes:
1. One in which the Finance Committee requested changes are in place, with the following
exception: PERS rates increase by 1.5% per year from FY 2015 through FY 2021, rather than
increasing by 3% per year during that period. Given the unknown future increases in pension
rates, staff suggests examining an alternative rate of increase for 2015-2021 of 1.5%. This
shaves off $23.3 million of the deficits projected in the Forecast (See Attachment D for
complete model) for a projected ten-year deficit of $189.8 million.
March 14, 2011 Page 6 of 9
(ID # 1446)
PERS Portfolio Returns as of Year-End 6/30 (%)
2.5
10.5
3.7
16.6
19.1
-24.0
13.3
-5.1
11.812.3
-6.1-7.2
12.519.5
20.1
15.3
16.4
11.8
12.5
6.5
8.9
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
Year
Returns (%)
Source: CalPERS December 31, 2010
2. One in which the Finance Committee requested changes are in place, and all salary increases
are deferred by an additional year (all bargaining units would receive no salary increases for
four years). Therefore, no salary increases occur in 2012 or 2013; in 2014 the Miscellaneous
group receives a 2% increase; in 2015 Miscellaneous and Fire groups receive a 2% increase; and
from 2016 onward all groups receive a 2% increase. This results in a savings of $13.7 million
over the ten years. (See Attachment A for a summary of salary increase assumptions in the
Revised Base Model and updated scenarios. See Attachment E for complete model showing
one-year salary increase deferral.)
3. A revision of one of the salary constraint scenarios included in the original LRFF report. This
scenario assumes that no salary increases will occur in any year in which deficits are projected.
Given the increased deficits in the Revised Base Model, there are no salary increases in the ten-
year period for this scenario. The ten-year savings are $46.9 million and the cumulative deficits
are $166.2 million (See Attachment F for complete model).
Chart 4 on the following page summarizes the revenue impact of the revised scenarios
described above.
March 14, 2011 Page 7 of 9
(ID # 1446)
Chart 4: Summary of New Scenarios
Long Range Financial Forecast 2011-2021
SUMMARY OF NEW SCENARIOS MODIFYING BASE MODEL AS REVISED BY FINANCE COMMITTEE REQUEST
(Millions of Dollars)
FY
2012
FY
2013
FY
2014
FY
2015
FY
2016 FY 2017
FY
2018
FY
2019 FY 2020
FY
2021
10-year
Total
(2012-
2021)
Base Model Revised as Requested by
Finance Committee ---Net Surplus
(Deficit)
(12.3)(17.0)
(17.5)
(18.5)
(20.2)
(21.6)(23.1)(24.9)(27.6)(30.5)(213.0)
---Impact of Alternate Scenarios on Bottom Line ---
PERS rates increase 1.5% per year
after 2014, rather than by 3% in Base
Model
- - -
0.5 1.4 2.3 3.3 4.2 5.3 6.4 23.3
Resulting Net Surplus (Deficit)
(12.3)(17.0)
(17.5)
(18.0)
(18.8)
(19.3)(19.8)(20.7)(22.3)(24.1)(189.8)
Salary increases deferred by one
additional year
- 1.3
1.4
1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8 13.7
Resulting Net Surplus (Deficit)
(12.3)(15.6)
(16.1)
(17.1)
(18.7)
(20.1)(21.5)(23.3)(25.9)(28.7) (199.4)
Revised Salary Constraint Scenario -
No increases in deficit years;
therefore no increases
- 1.4
2.6
3.3 4.3 5.2 6.1 7.0 8.0 9.0 46.9
Resulting Net Surplus (Deficit)
(12.3)(15.5)
(14.8)
(15.2)
(15.9)
(16.4)(17.0)(17.9)(19.6)(21.5)(166.2)
The Forecast does not capture a number of additional risks which are less quantifiable at this
time. First, given the State budget situation, additional State take-aways are possible, either
directly or in the form of pushing down costs of service delivery from the State to local
governments. Secondly, the City’s lease for Cubberley Community Center is due to expire in
December 2014, and negotiations will begin in 2012 for renewal. The lease requires that the
City notify the School District by December 2013 whether it will terminate the lease or exercise
the first of its five-year renewal options. The City’s future costs for the upkeep of the facility, as
well as the leasing costs, are therefore uncertain. Third, the City will undergo its next Retiree
Medical Valuation as of June 30, 2011, with completion expected in the fall of 2011. This
March 14, 2011 Page 8 of 9
(ID # 1446)
valuation will likely increase the City’s Annual Required Contribution, due to the jump in
retirements and the rate of health care cost increases.
This Forecast is not a prediction. It is a snapshot contingent upon a number of assumptions, all
of which are outlined in the report. What comes into sharp focus in this snapshot is the
necessity for change over the next ten years to address what is projected to be a significant
structural deficit. The increasing cost of employee benefits above and beyond the growth in
revenue sources, means that employees will need to bear a larger proportion of the cost of
those benefits. Otherwise the City will either need to cut services or aggressively evaluate
outsourcing options for some of those services.
Palo Alto is far from alone; many agencies are facing similar choices. This Forecast does not
include concessions for Fire or Police that could close the budget gap in FY 2012 and
significantly reduce future gaps.
It is staff’s hope that by examining this snapshot, Council members and staff may identify issues
that must be addressed now to improve the long-term picture. While the FY 2012 budget will
focus on closing that year’s projected deficit, staff and Council must also explore changes for
incorporation into FY 2013 and future budgets.
Resource Impact
As with any financial forecast, the fiscal impacts shown are estimates. Estimates of future
deficits and surpluses, as well as the estimated costs of future financial challenges, are meant to
guide future policy and budget decisions.
Staff will introduce the recommended midyear budget adjustments to the Finance Committee
in March 2011 and continue with the 2011-12 budget process.
Policy Implications
The Long Range Financial Forecast is a tool for Council’s use in making policy decisions
regarding the allocation of resources.
Environmental Review
This report does not require California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) review.
Attachments:
·Attachment A -Salary Increase Assumptions (PDF)
·Attachment B -Revised Base Model (PDF)
·Attachment C -Revised Base with Slower PERS inc (PDF)
March 14, 2011 Page 9 of 9
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·Attachment D -One-Yr Delay in Salary Inc (PDF)
·Attachment E -No Salary Inc if Deficit (PDF)
·Attachment F -1315 Long Range Financial Forecast (PDF)
·Attachment G -Finance Committee minutes of February 1, 2011 excerpt (PDF)
Prepared By:Nancy Nagel, Senior Financial Analyst
Department Head:Lalo Perez, Director
City Manager Approval: James Keene, City Manager
FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015
FY 2016 - FY 2021
10-year Total
(2012-2021)
1.1% 1.9% 1.7% 2.0% 2.0% 18.3%
Miscellaneous 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
Police 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0%
Fire 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
1.1% 1.9% 1.7% 2.0% 2.0%18.3%
Miscellaneous 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
Police 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0%
Fire 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
1.1% 0.0% 1.9% 1.7% 2.0%16.0%
Miscellaneous 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
Police 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0%
Fire 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0%
1.1% -0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%-0.7%
Miscellaneous 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Police 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fire 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Overall Salary increase
Overall Salary increase
Overall Salary increase
PERS rates increase 1.5% per year after 2014, rather than by 3% in Base Model
Salary increases deferred by one year
Salary Constraint - No increases in deficit years; no increases beyond rate of revenue growth
Long Range Financial Forecast 2011-2021
SUMMARY OF SALARY INCREASE ASSUMPTIONS
(Percentage increase over prior year)
Overall Salary increase
Base Model Net Surplus (Deficit)
SCENARIO
FY 2010
Actual
FY 2011
Adopted
FY 2011
Projected FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021
Revenues
Sales Taxes 17,991$ 18,218$ 19,507$ 19,646$ 20,320$ 21,085$ 21,888$ 22,750$ 23,649$ 24,594$ 25,295$ 25,940$ 26,638$
Property Taxes 25,982 25,907 25,323 25,830 26,699 27,665 28,734 29,914 31,177 32,581 34,114 35,227 36,186
Transient Occupancy Tax 6,858 7,021 7,400 7,704 7,946 8,196 8,470 8,771 9,091 9,432 9,701 9,968 10,237
Utility User Tax 11,296 11,429 10,824 10,859 11,069 11,329 11,654 11,708 11,976 12,252 12,528 12,796 13,054
Documentary Transfer Tax 3,707 3,613 4,000 4,219 4,377 4,546 4,723 4,908 5,103 5,310 5,504 5,694 5,948
Other Taxes and Fines 2,047 2,330 2,137 2,384 2,455 2,529 2,605 2,683 2,764 2,846 2,932 3,020 3,110
Subtotal: Taxes 67,881 68,518 69,191 70,642 72,866 75,350 78,074 80,734 83,760 87,016 90,074 92,644 95,173
Charges for Services 19,593 20,068 21,000 21,420 22,063 22,725 23,406 24,109 24,832 25,577 26,344 27,134 27,948
Permits and Licenses 4,720 4,533 4,646 4,739 4,881 5,027 5,178 5,334 5,494 5,658 5,828 6,003 6,183
Return on Investment 2,624 1,646 1,337 1,317 1,314 1,331 1,354 1,380 1,412 1,459 1,489 1,516 1,540
Rental Income 14,397 13,716 13,716 13,991 12,150 12,515 12,890 13,277 13,675 14,086 14,508 14,944 15,392
From other agencies 333 155 155 158 163 168 173 178 183 189 195 200 207
Charges to Other Funds 11,027 10,622 10,698 10,745 11,067 11,399 11,741 12,094 12,456 12,830 13,215 13,611 14,020
Other revenues 2,360 1,490 1,513 1,544 1,590 1,638 1,687 1,738 1,790 1,843 1,899 1,956 2,014
Total Revenues Before Transfers 122,936 120,748 122,257 124,555 126,094 130,152 134,505 138,843 143,602 148,658 153,551 158,008 162,477
Operating Transfers-In 22,011 18,684 18,705 19,453 20,232 21,041 21,882 22,758 23,668 24,615 25,599 26,623 27,688
TOTAL REVENUES 144,947 139,433 140,962 144,009 146,326 151,193 156,387 161,601 167,270 173,273 179,150 184,632 190,165
Expenditures
Salaries 61,080 59,020 60,003 60,661 61,798 62,843 64,113 65,409 66,730 68,078 69,453 70,855 72,286
Benefits 32,900 29,525 29,645 33,593 37,136 40,684 43,524 46,983 50,589 54,407 58,365 62,672 67,150
Subtotal: Salaries and Benefits 93,980 88,545 89,648 94,254 98,934 103,527 107,637 112,391 117,319 122,485 127,818 133,527 139,436
Contract Services 8,899 10,180 10,591 10,382 10,833 11,116 11,449 11,792 12,146 12,510 12,885 13,272 13,670
Supplies & Materials 2,867 3,242 3,262 3,541 4,112 4,235 4,362 4,493 4,628 4,767 4,910 5,057 5,209
General Expense 9,341 10,022 10,448 10,172 10,375 10,686 11,007 11,337 11,677 12,027 12,388 12,760 13,143
Rents and Leases 627 663 663 774 789 813 837 862 888 915 942 970 999
Facilities and Equipment 1,734 452 452 459 468 482 496 511 526 542 558 575 592
Allocated Charges 14,540 15,371 15,371 15,102 15,404 14,646 15,085 15,538 16,004 16,484 16,979 17,488 18,013
Total Expenditures Before Transfer 131,988 128,475 130,435 134,684 140,915 145,505 150,873 156,924 163,188 169,730 176,480 183,649 191,062
Transfers to Other Funds
Operating Transfers Out 4,737 1,122 1,662 1,167 1,214 1,263 1,314 1,367 1,422 1,479 1,538 1,600 1,664
Transfer to Infrastructure 9,900 9,802 9,802 10,438 10,852 11,294 11,747 12,217 12,706 13,214 13,743 14,293 14,865
Additional Transfer to Infrastructure for
Backlog 10,000 10,300 10,609 10,927 11,255 11,593 11,941 12,299 12,668 13,048
TOTAL EXPENDITURES 146,625 139,399 141,899 156,289 163,281 168,671 174,861 181,764 188,909 196,363 204,060 212,210 220,639
Net Operating Surplus/(Gap)(1,678) 33 (937) (12,280) (16,955) (17,478) (18,474) (20,163) (21,639) (23,090) (24,910) (27,579) (30,473)
Drawdown on BSR for BOA - - - - - - - - - - -
Net Operating Surplus/(Gap) (1,678) 33 (937) (12,280) (16,955) (17,478) (18,474) (20,163) (21,639) (23,090) (24,910) (27,579) (30,473)
Reserve
Comprehensive Annual Fin. Rpt. Recon (89)
Subtotal (89) - - - - - - - - - - -
GRAND NET SURPLUS (DEFICIT) (1,767)$ 33$ (937)$ (12,280)$ (16,955)$ (17,478)$ (18,474)$ (20,163)$ (21,639)$ (23,090)$ (24,910)$ (27,579)$ (30,473)$
*In FY 2011, Adopted Budget assumed 90-10 plan implementation for Miscellaneous group effective April 1 2011.
2011-2021 LRFF - BASE MODEL, REVISED AS REQUESTED BY FINANCE COMMITTEE
FY 2011
Projected FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021
Cumulative %
Change
2010-2021
Revenues
Sales Taxes 8.43% 0.71% 3.43% 3.76% 3.81% 3.94% 3.95% 4.00% 2.85% 2.55% 2.69%
Property Taxes (2.54%) 2.00% 3.36% 3.62% 3.86% 4.11% 4.22% 4.50% 4.71% 3.26% 2.72%
Transient Occupancy Tax 7.90% 4.11% 3.13% 3.15% 3.35% 3.55% 3.65% 3.75% 2.85% 2.75% 2.70%
Utility User Tax (4.18%) 0.32% 1.93% 2.35% 2.87% 0.46% 2.29% 2.30% 2.25% 2.14% 2.02%
Documentary Transfer Tax 7.90% 5.48% 3.75% 3.85% 3.90% 3.92% 3.97% 4.05% 3.65% 3.45% 4.47%
Other Taxes and Fines 4.42% 11.55% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Subtotal: Taxes 1.93% 2.10% 3.15% 3.41% 3.62% 3.41% 3.75% 3.89% 3.51% 2.85% 2.73%40.21%
Charges for Services 2.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Permits and Licenses (1.56%) 2.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Return on Investment (49.07%) -1.49% -0.24% 1.31% 1.76% 1.91% 2.31% 3.38% 2.01% 1.81% 1.61%
Rental Income (4.73%) 2.00% -13.15% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
From other agencies (53.47%) 2.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Charges to Other Funds (2.99%) 0.44% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Other revenues (35.87%) 2.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Total Revenues Before Transfer (0.55%) 1.88% 1.24% 3.22% 3.34% 3.23% 3.43% 3.52% 3.29% 2.90% 2.83%32.16%
Operating Transfers-In (15.02%) 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00%
TOTAL REVENUES (2.75%) 2.16% 1.61% 3.33% 3.44% 3.33% 3.51% 3.59% 3.39% 3.06% 3.00%31.20%
Expenditures
Salaries (1.76%) 1.10% 1.87% 1.69% 2.02% 2.02% 2.02% 2.02% 2.02% 2.02% 2.02%
Benefits (9.89%) 13.32% 10.55% 9.55% 6.98% 7.95% 7.68% 7.55% 7.28% 7.38% 7.15%
Subtotal: Salaries and Benefits (4.61%) 5.14% 4.96% 4.64% 3.97% 4.42% 4.38% 4.40% 4.35% 4.47% 4.42%48.37%
Contract Services 19.01% -1.97% 4.34% 2.61% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Supplies & Materials 13.79% 8.55% 16.13% 2.99% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 2.99% 3.01%
General Expense 11.85% -2.64% 2.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Rents and Leases 5.74% 16.74% 1.94% 3.04% 2.95% 2.99% 3.02% 3.04% 2.95% 2.97% 2.99%
Facilities and Equipment (73.93%) 1.55% 1.96% 2.99% 2.90% 3.02% 2.94% 3.04% 2.95% 3.05% 2.96%
Allocated Charges 5.72% -1.75% 2.00% -4.92% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Total Expenditures Before Tran (1.18%) 3.26% 4.63% 3.26% 3.69% 4.01% 3.99% 4.01% 3.98% 4.06% 4.04%44.76%
Transfers to Other Funds
Operating Transfers Out (64.92%) -29.78% 4.03% 4.04% 4.04% 4.03% 4.02% 4.01% 3.99% 4.03% 4.00%
Transfer to Infrastructure (0.99%) 6.49% 3.97% 4.07% 4.01% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00%
TOTAL EXPENDITURES (3.22%) 10.14% 4.47% 3.30% 3.67% 3.95% 3.93% 3.95% 3.92% 3.99% 3.97%50.48%
Net Operating Surplus/(Gap)(44.16%) 1210.47% 38.06% 3.08% 5.70% 9.14% 7.32% 6.71% 7.88% 10.71% 10.50%
PERCENTAGE CHANGES IN REVISED BASE MODEL
FY 2010
Actual
FY 2011
Adopted
FY 2011
Projected FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021
Revenues
Sales Taxes 17,991$ 18,218$ 19,507$ 19,646$ 20,320$ 21,085$ 21,888$ 22,750$ 23,649$ 24,594$ 25,295$ 25,940$ 26,638$
Property Taxes 25,982 25,907 25,323 25,830 26,699 27,665 28,734 29,914 31,177 32,581 34,114 35,227 36,186
Transient Occupancy Tax 6,858 7,021 7,400 7,704 7,946 8,196 8,470 8,771 9,091 9,432 9,701 9,968 10,237
Utility User Tax 11,296 11,429 10,824 10,859 11,069 11,329 11,654 11,708 11,976 12,252 12,528 12,796 13,054
Documentary Transfer Tax 3,707 3,613 4,000 4,219 4,377 4,546 4,723 4,908 5,103 5,310 5,504 5,694 5,948
Other Taxes and Fines 2,047 2,330 2,137 2,384 2,455 2,529 2,605 2,683 2,764 2,846 2,932 3,020 3,110
Subtotal: Taxes 67,881 68,518 69,191 70,642 72,866 75,350 78,074 80,734 83,760 87,016 90,074 92,644 95,173
Charges for Services 19,593 20,068 21,000 21,420 22,063 22,725 23,406 24,109 24,832 25,577 26,344 27,134 27,948
Permits and Licenses 4,720 4,533 4,646 4,739 4,881 5,027 5,178 5,334 5,494 5,658 5,828 6,003 6,183
Return on Investment 2,624 1,646 1,337 1,317 1,314 1,331 1,354 1,380 1,412 1,459 1,489 1,516 1,540
Rental Income 14,397 13,716 13,716 13,991 12,150 12,515 12,890 13,277 13,675 14,086 14,508 14,944 15,392
From other agencies 333 155 155 158 163 168 173 178 183 189 195 200 207
Charges to Other Funds 11,027 10,622 10,698 10,745 11,067 11,399 11,741 12,094 12,456 12,830 13,215 13,611 14,020
Other revenues 2,360 1,490 1,513 1,544 1,590 1,638 1,687 1,738 1,790 1,843 1,899 1,956 2,014
Total Revenues Before Transfers 122,936 120,748 122,257 124,555 126,094 130,152 134,505 138,843 143,602 148,658 153,551 158,008 162,477
Operating Transfers-In 22,011 18,684 18,705 19,453 20,232 21,041 21,882 22,758 23,668 24,615 25,599 26,623 27,688
TOTAL REVENUES 144,947 139,433 140,962 144,009 146,326 151,193 156,387 161,601 167,270 173,273 179,150 184,632 190,165
Expenditures
Salaries 61,080 59,020 60,003 60,661 61,798 62,843 64,113 65,409 66,730 68,078 69,453 70,855 72,286
Benefits 32,900 29,525 29,645 33,593 37,136 40,684 43,040 45,612 48,296 51,155 54,118 57,390 60,794
Subtotal: Salaries and Benefits 93,980 88,545 89,648 94,254 98,934 103,527 107,153 111,021 115,026 119,233 123,571 128,245 133,079
Contract Services 8,899 10,180 10,591 10,382 10,833 11,116 11,449 11,792 12,146 12,510 12,885 13,272 13,670
Supplies & Materials 2,867 3,242 3,262 3,541 4,112 4,235 4,362 4,493 4,628 4,767 4,910 5,057 5,209
General Expense 9,341 10,022 10,448 10,172 10,375 10,686 11,007 11,337 11,677 12,027 12,388 12,760 13,143
Rents and Leases 627 663 663 774 789 813 837 862 888 915 942 970 999
Facilities and Equipment 1,734 452 452 459 468 482 496 511 526 542 558 575 592
Allocated Charges 14,540 15,371 15,371 15,102 15,404 14,646 15,085 15,538 16,004 16,484 16,979 17,488 18,013
Total Expenditures Before Transfers 131,988 128,475 130,435 134,684 140,915 145,505 150,389 155,554 160,895 166,478 172,233 178,367 184,705
Transfers to Other Funds
Operating Transfers Out 4,737 1,122 1,662 1,167 1,214 1,263 1,314 1,367 1,422 1,479 1,538 1,600 1,664
Transfer to Infrastructure 9,900 9,802 9,802 10,438 10,852 11,294 11,747 12,217 12,706 13,214 13,743 14,293 14,865
Additional Transfer to Infrastructure for
Backlog 10,000 10,300 10,609 10,927 11,255 11,593 11,941 12,299 12,668 13,048
TOTAL EXPENDITURES 146,625 139,399 141,899 156,289 163,281 168,671 174,378 180,393 186,616 193,112 199,813 206,928 214,282
Net Operating Surplus/(Gap)(1,678) 33 (937) (12,280) (16,955) (17,478) (17,991) (18,792) (19,346) (19,839) (20,662) (22,296) (24,117)
Drawdown on BSR for BOA - - - - - - - - - - -
Net Operating Surplus/(Gap) (1,678) 33 (937) (12,280) (16,955) (17,478) (17,991) (18,792) (19,346) (19,839) (20,662) (22,296) (24,117)
Drawdown on Budget Stabilization Reserve
Comprehensive Annual Fin. Rpt. Recon. (89)
Subtotal (89) - - - - - - - - - - -
GRAND NET SURPLUS (DEFICIT) (1,767)$ 33$ (937)$ (12,280)$ (16,955)$ (17,478)$ (17,991)$ (18,792)$ (19,346)$ (19,839)$ (20,662)$ (22,296)$ (24,117)$
*In FY 2011, Adopted Budget assumed 90-10 plan implementation for Miscellaneous group effective April 1 2011.
2011-2021 LRFF - REVISED BASE MODEL WITH SLOWER PERS INCREASES AFTER 2014
FY 2011
Projected FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021
Cumulative %
Change
2010-2021
Revenues
Sales Taxes 8.43% 0.71% 3.43% 3.76% 3.81% 3.94% 3.95% 4.00% 2.85% 2.55% 2.69%
Property Taxes (2.54%) 2.00% 3.36% 3.62% 3.86% 4.11% 4.22% 4.50% 4.71% 3.26% 2.72%
Transient Occupancy Tax 7.90% 4.11% 3.13% 3.15% 3.35% 3.55% 3.65% 3.75% 2.85% 2.75% 2.70%
Utility User Tax (4.18%) 0.32% 1.93% 2.35% 2.87% 0.46% 2.29% 2.30% 2.25% 2.14% 2.02%
Documentary Transfer Tax 7.90% 5.48% 3.75% 3.85% 3.90% 3.92% 3.97% 4.05% 3.65% 3.45% 4.47%
Other Taxes and Fines 4.42% 11.55% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Subtotal: Taxes 1.93% 2.10% 3.15% 3.41% 3.62% 3.41% 3.75% 3.89% 3.51% 2.85% 2.73%40.21%
Charges for Services 2.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Permits and Licenses (1.56%) 2.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Return on Investment (49.07%) -1.49% -0.24% 1.31% 1.76% 1.91% 2.31% 3.38% 2.01% 1.81% 1.61%
Rental Income (4.73%) 2.00% -13.15% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
From other agencies (53.47%) 2.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Charges to Other Funds (2.99%) 0.44% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Other revenues (35.87%) 2.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Total Revenues Before Transfer (0.55%) 1.88% 1.24% 3.22% 3.34% 3.23% 3.43% 3.52% 3.29% 2.90% 2.83%32.16%
Operating Transfers-In (15.02%) 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00%
TOTAL REVENUES (2.75%) 2.16% 1.61% 3.33% 3.44% 3.33% 3.51% 3.59% 3.39% 3.06% 3.00%31.20%
Expenditures
Salaries (1.76%) 1.10% 1.87% 1.69% 2.02% 2.02% 2.02% 2.02% 2.02% 2.02% 2.02%18.35%
Benefits (9.89%) 13.32% 10.55% 9.55% 5.79% 5.98% 5.88% 5.92% 5.79% 6.05% 5.93%
Subtotal: Salaries and Benefits (4.61%) 5.14% 4.96% 4.64% 3.50% 3.61% 3.61% 3.66% 3.64% 3.78% 3.77%41.60%
Contract Services 19.01% -1.97% 4.34% 2.61% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Supplies & Materials 13.79% 8.55% 16.13% 2.99% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 2.99% 3.01%
General Expense 11.85% -2.64% 2.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Rents and Leases 5.74% 16.74% 1.94% 3.04% 2.95% 2.99% 3.02% 3.04% 2.95% 2.97% 2.99%
Facilities and Equipment (73.93%) 1.55% 1.96% 2.99% 2.90% 3.02% 2.94% 3.04% 2.95% 3.05% 2.96%
Allocated Charges 5.72% -1.75% 2.00% -4.92% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Total Expenditures Before Tran (1.18%) 3.26% 4.63% 3.26% 3.36% 3.43% 3.43% 3.47% 3.46% 3.56% 3.55%39.94%
Transfers to Other Funds
Operating Transfers Out (64.92%) -29.78% 4.03% 4.04% 4.04% 4.03% 4.02% 4.01% 3.99% 4.03% 4.00%
Transfer to Infrastructure (0.99%) 6.49% 3.97% 4.07% 4.01% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00%
TOTAL EXPENDITURES (3.22%) 10.14% 4.47% 3.30% 3.38% 3.45% 3.45% 3.48% 3.47% 3.56% 3.55%46.14%
Net Operating Surplus/(Gap)(44.16%) 1210.47% 38.06% 3.08% 2.93% 4.46% 2.94% 2.55% 4.15% 7.91% 8.16%
PERCENTAGE CHANGES IN REVISED BASE FORECAST WITH SLOWER PERS INCREASES AFTER 2014
FY 2010
Actual
FY 2011
Adopted
FY 2011
Projected FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021
Revenues
Sales Taxes 17,991$ 18,218$ 19,507$ 19,646$ 20,320$ 21,085$ 21,888$ 22,750$ 23,649$ 24,594$ 25,295$ 25,940$ 26,638$
Property Taxes 25,982 25,907 25,323 25,830 26,699 27,665 28,734 29,914 31,177 32,581 34,114 35,227 36,186
Transient Occupancy Tax 6,858 7,021 7,400 7,704 7,946 8,196 8,470 8,771 9,091 9,432 9,701 9,968 10,237
Utility User Tax 11,296 11,429 10,824 10,859 11,069 11,329 11,654 11,708 11,976 12,252 12,528 12,796 13,054
Documentary Transfer Tax 3,707 3,613 4,000 4,219 4,377 4,546 4,723 4,908 5,103 5,310 5,504 5,694 5,948
Other Taxes and Fines 2,047 2,330 2,137 2,384 2,455 2,529 2,605 2,683 2,764 2,846 2,932 3,020 3,110
Subtotal: Taxes 67,881 68,518 69,191 70,642 72,866 75,350 78,074 80,734 83,760 87,016 90,074 92,644 95,173
Charges for Services 19,593 20,068 21,000 21,420 22,063 22,725 23,406 24,109 24,832 25,577 26,344 27,134 27,948
Permits and Licenses 4,720 4,533 4,646 4,739 4,881 5,027 5,178 5,334 5,494 5,658 5,828 6,003 6,183
Return on Investment 2,624 1,646 1,337 1,317 1,314 1,331 1,354 1,380 1,412 1,459 1,489 1,516 1,540
Rental Income 14,397 13,716 13,716 13,991 12,150 12,515 12,890 13,277 13,675 14,086 14,508 14,944 15,392
From other agencies 333 155 155 158 163 168 173 178 183 189 195 200 207
Charges to Other Funds 11,027 10,622 10,698 10,745 11,067 11,399 11,741 12,094 12,456 12,830 13,215 13,611 14,020
Other revenues 2,360 1,490 1,513 1,544 1,590 1,638 1,687 1,738 1,790 1,843 1,899 1,956 2,014
Total Revenues Before Transfers 122,936 120,748 122,257 124,555 126,094 130,152 134,505 138,843 143,602 148,658 153,551 158,008 162,477
Operating Transfers-In 22,011 18,684 18,705 19,453 20,232 21,041 21,882 22,758 23,668 24,615 25,599 26,623 27,688
TOTAL REVENUES 144,947 139,433 140,962 144,009 146,326 151,193 156,387 161,601 167,270 173,273 179,150 184,632 190,165
Expenditures
Salaries 61,080 59,020 60,003 60,661 60,661 61,798 62,843 64,113 65,409 66,730 68,078 69,453 70,855
Benefits 32,900 29,525 29,645 33,593 36,949 40,366 43,421 46,843 50,411 54,190 58,108 62,372 66,806
Subtotal: Salaries and Benefits 93,980 88,545 89,648 94,254 97,610 102,164 106,264 110,956 115,820 120,920 126,186 131,825 137,661
Contract Services 8,899 10,180 10,591 10,382 10,833 11,116 11,449 11,792 12,146 12,510 12,885 13,272 13,670
Supplies & Materials 2,867 3,242 3,262 3,541 4,112 4,235 4,362 4,493 4,628 4,767 4,910 5,057 5,209
General Expense 9,341 10,022 10,448 10,172 10,375 10,686 11,007 11,337 11,677 12,027 12,388 12,760 13,143
Rents and Leases 627 663 663 774 789 813 837 862 888 915 942 970 999
Facilities and Equipment 1,734 452 452 459 468 482 496 511 526 542 558 575 592
Allocated Charges 14,540 15,371 15,371 15,102 15,404 14,646 15,085 15,538 16,004 16,484 16,979 17,488 18,013
Total Expenditures Before Transfers 131,988 128,475 130,435 134,684 139,591 144,142 149,500 155,489 161,689 168,165 174,848 181,947 189,287
Transfers to Other Funds
Operating Transfers Out 4,737 1,122 1,662 1,167 1,214 1,263 1,314 1,367 1,422 1,479 1,538 1,600 1,664
Transfer to Infrastructure 9,900 9,802 9,802 10,438 10,852 11,294 11,747 12,217 12,706 13,214 13,743 14,293 14,865
Additional Transfer to Infrastructure for
Backlog 10,000 10,300 10,609 10,927 11,255 11,593 11,941 12,299 12,668 13,048
TOTAL EXPENDITURES 146,625 139,399 141,899 156,289 161,957 167,308 173,488 180,328 187,410 194,798 202,427 210,508 218,864
Net Operating Surplus/(Gap)(1,678) 33 (937) (12,280) (15,631) (16,114) (17,101) (18,728) (20,140) (21,525) (23,277) (25,876) (28,699)
Drawdown on BSR for BOA - - - - - - - - - - -
Net Operating Surplus/(Gap) (1,678) 33 (937) (12,280) (15,631) (16,114) (17,101) (18,728) (20,140) (21,525) (23,277) (25,876) (28,699)
Drawdown on Budget Stabilization Reserve
Comprehensive Annual Fin. Rpt. Recon. (89)
Subtotal (89) - - - - - - - - - - -
GRAND NET SURPLUS (DEFICIT) (1,767)$ 33$ (937)$ (12,280)$ (15,631)$ (16,114)$ (17,101)$ (18,728)$ (20,140)$ (21,525)$ (23,277)$ (25,876)$ (28,699)$
*In FY 2011, Adopted Budget assumed 90-10 plan implementation for Miscellaneous group effective April 1 2011.
2011-2021 LRFF - BASE MODEL, REVISED AS REQUESTED BY FINANCE COMMITTEE,
WITH SALARY INCREASES DEFERRED BY ONE YEAR
FY 2011
Projected FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021
Cumulative %
Change
2010-2021
Revenues
Sales Taxes 8.43% 0.71% 3.43% 3.76% 3.81% 3.94% 3.95% 4.00% 2.85% 2.55% 2.69%
Property Taxes (2.54%) 2.00% 3.36% 3.62% 3.86% 4.11% 4.22% 4.50% 4.71% 3.26% 2.72%
Transient Occupancy Tax 7.90% 4.11% 3.13% 3.15% 3.35% 3.55% 3.65% 3.75% 2.85% 2.75% 2.70%
Utility User Tax (4.18%) 0.32% 1.93% 2.35% 2.87% 0.46% 2.29% 2.30% 2.25% 2.14% 2.02%
Documentary Transfer Tax 7.90% 5.48% 3.75% 3.85% 3.90% 3.92% 3.97% 4.05% 3.65% 3.45% 4.47%
Other Taxes and Fines 4.42% 11.55% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Subtotal: Taxes 1.93% 2.10% 3.15% 3.41% 3.62% 3.41% 3.75% 3.89% 3.51% 2.85% 2.73%40.21%
Charges for Services 2.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Permits and Licenses (1.56%) 2.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Return on Investment (49.07%) -1.49% -0.24% 1.31% 1.76% 1.91% 2.31% 3.38% 2.01% 1.81% 1.61%
Rental Income (4.73%) 2.00% -13.15% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
From other agencies (53.47%) 2.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Charges to Other Funds (2.99%) 0.44% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Other revenues (35.87%) 2.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Total Revenues Before Transfers (0.55%) 1.88% 1.24% 3.22% 3.34% 3.23% 3.43% 3.52% 3.29% 2.90% 2.83%32.16%
Operating Transfers-In (15.02%) 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00%
TOTAL REVENUES (2.75%) 2.16% 1.61% 3.33% 3.44% 3.33% 3.51% 3.59% 3.39% 3.06% 3.00%31.20%
Expenditures
Salaries (1.76%) 1.10% 0.00% 1.87% 1.69% 2.02% 2.02% 2.02% 2.02% 2.02% 2.02%16.00%
Benefits (9.89%) 13.32% 9.99% 9.25% 7.57% 7.88% 7.62% 7.49% 7.23% 7.34% 7.11%
Subtotal: Salaries and Benefits (4.61%) 5.14% 3.56% 4.67% 4.01% 4.42% 4.38% 4.40% 4.35% 4.47% 4.43%46.48%
Contract Services 19.01% -1.97% 4.34% 2.61% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Supplies & Materials 13.79% 8.55% 16.13% 2.99% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 2.99% 3.01%
General Expense 11.85% -2.64% 2.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Rents and Leases 5.74% 16.74% 1.94% 3.04% 2.95% 2.99% 3.02% 3.04% 2.95% 2.97% 2.99%
Facilities and Equipment (73.93%) 1.55% 1.96% 2.99% 2.90% 3.02% 2.94% 3.04% 2.95% 3.05% 2.96%
Allocated Charges 5.72% -1.75% 2.00% -4.92% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Total Expenditures Before Transfers (1.18%) 3.26% 3.64% 3.26% 3.72% 4.01% 3.99% 4.01% 3.97% 4.06% 4.03%43.41%
Transfers to Other Funds
Operating Transfers Out (64.92%) -29.78% 4.03% 4.04% 4.04% 4.03% 4.02% 4.01% 3.99% 4.03% 4.00%
Transfer to Infrastructure (0.99%) 6.49% 3.97% 4.07% 4.01% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00%
TOTAL EXPENDITURES (3.22%) 10.14% 3.63% 3.30% 3.69% 3.94% 3.93% 3.94% 3.92% 3.99% 3.97%49.27%
Net Operating Surplus/(Gap)(44.16%) 1210.47% 27.28% 3.09% 6.12% 9.51% 7.54% 6.88% 8.14% 11.17% 10.91%
PERCENTAGE CHANGES IN ONE-YEAR-SALARY-INCREASE-DEFERRAL SCENARIO
FY 2010
Actual
FY 2011
Adopted
FY 2011
Projected FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021
Revenues
Sales Taxes 17,991$ 18,218$ 19,507$ 19,646$ 20,320$ 21,085$ 21,888$ 22,750$ 23,649$ 24,594$ 25,295$ 25,940$ 26,638$
Property Taxes 25,982 25,907 25,323 25,830 26,699 27,665 28,734 29,914 31,177 32,581 34,114 35,227 36,186
Transient Occupancy Tax 6,858 7,021 7,400 7,704 7,946 8,196 8,470 8,771 9,091 9,432 9,701 9,968 10,237
Utility User Tax 11,296 11,429 10,824 10,859 11,069 11,329 11,654 11,708 11,976 12,252 12,528 12,796 13,054
Documentary Transfer Tax 3,707 3,613 4,000 4,219 4,377 4,546 4,723 4,908 5,103 5,310 5,504 5,694 5,948
Other Taxes and Fines 2,047 2,330 2,137 2,384 2,455 2,529 2,605 2,683 2,764 2,846 2,932 3,020 3,110
Subtotal: Taxes 67,881 68,518 69,191 70,642 72,866 75,350 78,074 80,734 83,760 87,016 90,074 92,644 95,173
Charges for Services 19,593 20,068 21,000 21,420 22,063 22,725 23,406 24,109 24,832 25,577 26,344 27,134 27,948
Permits and Licenses 4,720 4,533 4,646 4,739 4,881 5,027 5,178 5,334 5,494 5,658 5,828 6,003 6,183
Return on Investment 2,624 1,646 1,337 1,317 1,314 1,331 1,354 1,380 1,412 1,459 1,489 1,516 1,540
Rental Income 14,397 13,716 13,716 13,991 12,150 12,515 12,890 13,277 13,675 14,086 14,508 14,944 15,392
From other agencies 333 155 155 158 163 168 173 178 183 189 195 200 207
Charges to Other Funds 11,027 10,622 10,698 10,745 11,067 11,399 11,741 12,094 12,456 12,830 13,215 13,611 14,020
Other revenues 2,360 1,490 1,513 1,544 1,590 1,638 1,687 1,738 1,790 1,843 1,899 1,956 2,014
Total Revenues Before Transfers 122,936 120,748 122,257 124,555 126,094 130,152 134,505 138,843 143,602 148,658 153,551 158,008 162,477
Operating Transfers-In 22,011 18,684 18,705 19,453 20,232 21,041 21,882 22,758 23,668 24,615 25,599 26,623 27,688
TOTAL REVENUES 144,947 139,433 140,962 144,009 146,326 151,193 156,387 161,601 167,270 173,273 179,150 184,632 190,165
Expenditures
Salaries 61,080 59,020 60,003 60,661 60,530 60,661 60,661 60,661 60,661 60,661 60,661 60,661 60,661
Benefits 32,900 29,525 29,645 33,593 36,967 40,232 43,703 47,435 51,437 55,738 60,192 64,886 69,777
Subtotal: Salaries and Benefits 93,980 88,545 89,648 94,254 97,497 100,893 104,364 108,096 112,098 116,399 120,853 125,547 130,438
Contract Services 8,899 10,180 10,591 10,382 10,833 11,116 11,449 11,792 12,146 12,510 12,885 13,272 13,670
Supplies & Materials 2,867 3,242 3,262 3,541 4,112 4,235 4,362 4,493 4,628 4,767 4,910 5,057 5,209
General Expense 9,341 10,022 10,448 10,172 10,375 10,686 11,007 11,337 11,677 12,027 12,388 12,760 13,143
Rents and Leases 627 663 663 774 789 813 837 862 888 915 942 970 999
Facilities and Equipment 1,734 452 452 459 468 482 496 511 526 542 558 575 592
Allocated Charges 14,540 15,371 15,371 15,102 15,404 14,646 15,085 15,538 16,004 16,484 16,979 17,488 18,013
Total Expenditures Before Transfers 131,988 128,475 130,435 134,684 139,478 142,871 147,600 152,629 157,967 163,644 169,515 175,669 182,064
Transfers to Other Funds
Operating Transfers Out 4,737 1,122 1,662 1,167 1,214 1,263 1,314 1,367 1,422 1,479 1,538 1,600 1,664
Transfer to Infrastructure 9,900 9,802 9,802 10,438 10,852 11,294 11,747 12,217 12,706 13,214 13,743 14,293 14,865
Additional Transfer to Infrastructure for
Backlog 10,000 10,300 10,609 10,927 11,255 11,593 11,941 12,299 12,668 13,048
TOTAL EXPENDITURES 146,625 139,399 141,899 156,289 161,844 166,037 171,589 177,468 183,688 190,277 197,095 204,229 211,641
Net Operating Surplus/(Gap)(1,678) 33 (937) (12,280) (15,519) (14,843) (15,201) (15,867) (16,418) (17,004) (17,944) (19,598) (21,476)
Drawdown on BSR for BOA - - - - - - - - - - -
Net Operating Surplus/(Gap)(1,678) 33 (937) (12,280) (15,519) (14,843) (15,201) (15,867) (16,418) (17,004) (17,944) (19,598) (21,476)
Drawdown on Budget Stabilization Reserve
Comprehensive Annual Fin. Rpt. Recon. (89)
Subtotal (89) - - - - - - - - - - -
GRAND NET SURPLUS (DEFICIT) (1,767)$ 33$ (937)$ (12,280)$ (15,519)$ (14,843)$ (15,201)$ (15,867)$ (16,418)$ (17,004)$ (17,944)$ (19,598)$ (21,476)$
*In FY 2011, Adopted Budget assumed 90-10 plan implementation for Miscellaneous group effective April 1 2011.
2011-2021 LRFF - BASE MODEL REVISED AS REQUESTED BY FINANCE COMMITTEE, PLUS NO SALARY
INCREASES IN DEFICIT YEARS
FY 2011
Projected FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021
Cumulative %
Change
2010-2021
Revenues
Sales Taxes 8.43% 0.71% 3.43% 3.76% 3.81% 3.94% 3.95% 4.00% 2.85% 2.55% 2.69%
Property Taxes (2.54%) 2.00% 3.36% 3.62% 3.86% 4.11% 4.22% 4.50% 4.71% 3.26% 2.72%
Transient Occupancy Tax 7.90% 4.11% 3.13% 3.15% 3.35% 3.55% 3.65% 3.75% 2.85% 2.75% 2.70%
Utility User Tax (4.18%) 0.32% 1.93% 2.35% 2.87% 0.46% 2.29% 2.30% 2.25% 2.14% 2.02%
Documentary Transfer Tax 7.90% 5.48% 3.75% 3.85% 3.90% 3.92% 3.97% 4.05% 3.65% 3.45% 4.47%
Other Taxes and Fines 4.42% 11.55% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Subtotal: Taxes 1.93% 2.10% 3.15% 3.41% 3.62% 3.41% 3.75% 3.89% 3.51% 2.85% 2.73%40.21%
Charges for Services 2.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Permits and Licenses (1.56%) 2.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Return on Investment (49.07%) -1.49% -0.24% 1.31% 1.76% 1.91% 2.31% 3.38% 2.01% 1.81% 1.61%
Rental Income (4.73%) 2.00% -13.15% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
From other agencies (53.47%) 2.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Charges to Other Funds (2.99%) 0.44% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Other revenues (35.87%) 2.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Total Revenues Before Transfe (0.55%) 1.88% 1.24% 3.22% 3.34% 3.23% 3.43% 3.52% 3.29% 2.90% 2.83%32.16%
Operating Transfers-In (15.02%) 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00%
TOTAL REVENUES (2.75%) 2.16% 1.61% 3.33% 3.44% 3.33% 3.51% 3.59% 3.39% 3.06% 3.00%31.20%
Expenditures
Salaries (1.76%) 1.10% -0.22% 0.22% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%-0.69%
Benefits (9.89%) 13.32% 10.04% 8.83% 8.63% 8.54% 8.44% 8.36% 7.99% 7.80% 7.54%
Subtotal: Salaries and Benefits (4.61%) 5.14% 3.44% 3.48% 3.44% 3.58% 3.70% 3.84% 3.83% 3.88% 3.90%38.79%
Contract Services 19.01% -1.97% 4.34% 2.61% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Supplies & Materials 13.79% 8.55% 16.13% 2.99% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 2.99% 3.01%
General Expense 11.85% -2.64% 2.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Rents and Leases 5.74% 16.74% 1.94% 3.04% 2.95% 2.99% 3.02% 3.04% 2.95% 2.97% 2.99%
Facilities and Equipment (73.93%) 1.55% 1.96% 2.99% 2.90% 3.02% 2.94% 3.04% 2.95% 3.05% 2.96%
Allocated Charges 5.72% -1.75% 2.00% -4.92% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Total Expenditures Before Tran (1.18%) 3.26% 3.56% 2.43% 3.31% 3.41% 3.50% 3.59% 3.59% 3.63% 3.64%37.94%
Transfers to Other Funds
Operating Transfers Out (64.92%) -29.78% 4.03% 4.04% 4.04% 4.03% 4.02% 4.01% 3.99% 4.03% 4.00%
Transfer to Infrastructure (0.99%) 6.49% 3.97% 4.07% 4.01% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00%
TOTAL EXPENDITURES (3.22%) 10.14% 3.55% 2.59% 3.34% 3.43% 3.50% 3.59% 3.58% 3.62% 3.63%44.34%
Net Operating Surplus/(Gap)(44.16%) 1210.47% 26.37% -4.35% 2.41% 4.38% 3.47% 3.57% 5.53% 9.21% 9.58%
PERCENTAGE CHANGES IN NO SALARY INCREASE SCENARIO
City of Palo Alto (10 # 1315)
Finance Committee Staff Report
Report Type: Meeting Date: 2/1/2011
Title: Long Range Financial Forecast 2011-2021
Subject: Update to Long Range Financial Forecast, 2011-2021
From: City Manager
Lead Department: Administrative Services
Recommendation
Staff recommends that the Finance Committee review and comment on the attached forecast
of revenues and expenses and forward It to the full Council.
Background
Attached to this report is the City's updated General Fund Long Range Financial Forecast (LRFF)
for the fiscal years 2011 through 2021. The LRFF Identifies key issues that will guide the
upcoming 2011·2012 budget process and affect the City's future financial condition.
Discussion
Although the Recession was declared officially over as of June 2009, there remain in the range
of 15 million American workers, or 9.4% of the workforce, unemployed. The housing market
shows underwhelming evidence of a rebound, and the general recovery is painfully slow.
Moreover, unemployment statistics are just a subset of a broader problem of under-
employment. Adding in those who are working part-time because they cannot find full-time
work, the total underemployed number Is about 22 million Americans.
The Impact of these economic developments on our Forecast Is reflected In slow growth
assumptions in all revenue categories, and slower salary growth than In past Forecasts. On the
expense side, pension costs show significant Increases due to the reduced investment
performance of the PERS portfolio and revised demographic assumptions adopted by PERS, A
summary of our Base Model -our best estimate of the fiscal picture over the next ten years -
appears below.
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Page 10f4
Sublotal:
Return on
Investment
Total Revenues
Before
TOTAL
GRAND NET
SURPLUS
2011-2021 LRFF -BASE MODEL SUMMARY
FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2011
Actual FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018
The Base Model shows a projected net deficit for FY 2011 of $0.9 million, and a deficit of $2.2
million for FY 2012. Over the eleven-year period from FY 2011 through FY 2021, cumulative
deficits are projected at $11.3 million.
This is a much improved fiscal picture compared to the one presented in February 2010.
Looking at just FY 2011-2020, for comparison pursposes, last year's Forecast showed a
cumulative deficit of $147.5 million, while this year's Base Model projects a cumulative $14.2
million deficit over the same period, with much of the improvement due to the significant
Budget reset accomplished by the FY 2011 Adopted Budget.
On October 5, 2010, however, staff presented the Finance Committee with an update to the
2010-20 Forecast that predicted an even rosier $1.2 million surplus over the ten-year period
from 2011-2020. This downward revision to this projection is primarily due to an adjustment in
revenue projections: UUT projections came down by $22.9 million for the 2011-2020 period,
due to the cancelled rate increases; property tax projections came down $14.3 million; on the
other hand, Documentary Transfer Tax estimates increased $8.6 million for the ten year period,
and Sales Tax estimates increased $5.5 million.
In addition to the Base Model, staff prepared a number of Alternative Scenarios, including:
• one in which salary increases are tied to projected revenue increases -either harming
the General Fund (GF) by $3.4 million over ten years or helping it by $7.3 million, the
latter achieved by withholding salary increases in years when an increase would cause a
deficit;
February 01, 2011
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• an optimistic one in which Public Safety bargaining units accept reductions comparable
to those implemented in the Miscellaneous group, and revenues grow slightly more
quickly -putting the GF $40.1 million to the better over ten years;
• a pessimistic one in which medical costs Increase by 10% per year every year over the
ten-year period, PERS adopts a 7.5% discount rate, and PERS rates continue to escalate
not only for FY 2012, 2013, and 2014, but every year beyond as well -causing an
additional $137.7 million in expense over ten years;
• three scenarios in which the GF increases its annual Infrastructure investment by either
$10 or $15 million -which eliminates the unfunded backlog and funds a portion of the
projected Future Infrastructure Needs, as well as increasing deficits, but by varying
degrees depending on whether $10 or $15 million is invested and whether the GF issues
a General Obligation bond.
This Forecast is not a prediction. It Is a snapshot contingent upon a number of assumptions, all
of which are outlined in the report. The overall color of the snapshot, however, is one of
"business as usual" -or business as it is in FY 2011, assuming that over the next 10 years, the
same size workforce will provide basically the same services, and the revenue base will
continue its recent anemic course. It is staff's hope that by examining this snapshot, Council
members and staff may identify issues that must be addressed now to improve the long-term
picture, and that as a result incorporate into the FY2012 budget changes that will improve the
City's outlook for future years.
RESOURCE IMPACT
As with any financial forecast, the fiscal impacts shown are estimates. Estimates of future
deficits and surpluses, as well as the estimated costs of future financial challenges, are meant to
guide future policy and budget decisions.
Staff will introduce the recommended midyear budget adjustments to the Finance Committee
in March 2011 and continue with the 2011-12 budget process. Staff's proposed FY 2012 budget
will include recommendations to balance the budget.
POLICY IMPLICATIONS
The Long Range Financial Forecast is a tool for Council's use in making policy decisions
regarding the allocation of resources.
ENVIRONMENTAL REVIEW
This report does not require California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) review.
ATTACHMENTS:
• Attachment A: Long Range Financial Forecast FY 2011-2021 (PDF)
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(lD 111315)
Prepared By:
Department Head:
City Manager Approval:
February 01, 2011
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