Loading...
HomeMy WebLinkAboutStaff Report 1348TO: City of Palo Alto Memorandum HONORABLE CITY COUNCIL FROM: CITY MANAGER DEPARTMENT: PLANNING AND COMMUNITY ENVIRONMENT ID#: 1348 DATE: MARCH 14,2011 REPORT TYPE: ACTION SUBJECT: Item No.6: Release of Initial Vision Scenario by ABAGIMTC The staff report for this item indicated that the Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) and the Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) were scheduled to release an Initial Vision Scenario for the Sustainable Communities Strategy (SCS) on March 11,2011. The report was released last Friday and staff has quickly, but less than comprehensively, reviewed the documents and supporting information. The full report and background is available online at: http://www.onebayarea.org/spotlight.htm. While staff has not had adequate time to substantially digest or analyze the materials, the summary below outlines pertinent representations from ABAG and MTC regarding the Initial Vision Scenario. Intent of Initial Vision Scenario The Initial Vision Scenario is intended to: • Incorporate the 25-year regional housing need encompassed in the SCS; • Provide a preliminary set of housing and employment growth numbers at regional, county, jurisdictional, and sub-jurisdictional levels; and • Be evaluated against the greenhouse gas reduction target as well as additional performance targets adopted for the SCS. Attachment A is a memo from ABAG and MTC introducing the Initial Vision Scenario to their respective boards and the public, and Attachment B is an overview of the document, including a number of tables outlining potential growth under this scenario of land use and transportation patterns. The agencies (ABAG and MTC) indicate that the Initial Vision Scenario is meant to start the conversation about the SCS among local jurisdictions, regional agencies, and other interested stakeholders. This scenario proposes a future development pattern that depends upon a strong economy, sufficient funding for affordable housing and supportive public infrastructure and transportation investments. The proposed distribution of housing focuses on areas close to transit stations and corridors. This focused growth pattern is also intended to preserve open space and agricultural land in the Bay Area. ID#: 1348 Page 1 of 3 The agencies further present that this step in the SCS process is designed to solicit comment primarily from local elected officials and their constituents. This input will inform the development of the detailed scenarios to be drafted by the summer of 20 II. Through integrated regional land use, housing, and transportation investments, the Initial Vision Scenario proposes a sustainable pattern of regional growth intended to maximize the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions while accommodating the entire region's housing need through 2035. In this scenario, which is "unconstrained" in terms of financial and other resources to support housing growth, Priority Development Areas (PDAs), Infill Opportunity Areas (areas not designated as PDAs, but that share many ofthe same attributes), and transit corridors would accommodate a major share of housing growth. The Overview (Attachment B) specifies that the Initial Vision Scenario would meet the regional housing target and achieves an incremental improvement over current regional plans with the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) per capita by 12 percent in 2035. Thus, it falls short of the 15% GHG per capita reduction target in 2035 established by the California Air Resources Board. So other infrastructure and transportation demand management strategies must be evaluated in order for the region to achieve the GHG target. As outlined in the discussion below of potential Palo Alto and Santa Clara County growth in this scenario, the PDAs and other areas have been targeted for extensive housing, rather than job, growth. The agencies believe that strategies to encourage more job growth in PDAs and near transit nodes would substantially improve the performance of the targets, especially the greenhouse gas emissions target. These strategies will be the subject of the upcoming detailed scenarios analysis, and are clearly a critical area of interest to Palo Alto. Scenario Growth Concepts for Palo Alto and Santa Clara County For Palo Alto, the "place types" factored into the Vision Scenario include the California Avenue Area PDA, the El Camino Real corridor, and the University Avenue transit area. The initial Vision Scenario, however, describes a development pattern "unconstrained" by public service limitations, fiscal, transportation, or other infrastructure, and is focused primarily on housing growth rather than jobs. Attachment C is a slide presentation made last week by ABAG and MTC to their boards, including background for the Initial Vision Scenario, along with potential growth numbers for the region, each county, and each city. The regional agencies make a point of not calling these numbers ''proj ections," rather a growth scenario to begin further discussions. Of particular interest are the following potential housing and job employment numbers: • The Bay Area would grow by approximately 900,000 households from 2010-2035, designed to house enough residents to avoid any increase in net in-commuting. • The Bay Area population would grow by approximately 2 million people in that period. • Bay Area employment would increase by 1.2 million new jobs in that period. • Santa Clara County would grow by approximately 250,000 households from 2010-2035, an increase of about 41 %, the largest county growth in the region. • Santa Clara County employment would increase by approximately 380,000 jobs in that period, an increase of over 44%, the largest county growth in the region. • The City of Palo Alto would grow by just less than 12,000 households from 2010-2035, an increase of almost 45%, the sixth largest increase in households for a city in Santa Clara County, excluding San Jose. ID#: 1348 Page 2 of 3 To: MTC Planning Committee, ABAG Administrative Committee Fr: ABAG and MTC Executive Directors Re: Initial Vision Scenario ATTACHMENT A Date: March 4, 2011 The Initial Vision Scenario starts the conversation on the Sustainable Communities Strategy among local jurisdictions, regional agencies, and other interested stakeholders. This scenario proposes a future development pattern that depends upon a strong economy, sufficient funding for affordable housing and supportive public infrastructure and transportation investments. The proposed distribution of housing focuses on areas close to transit that have been identified by local jurisdictions. ntis focused growth pattern preserves open space and agricultural land in the Bay Area. This intportant step in the Sustainable Communities Strategy process is designed to solicit comment primarily from local elected officials and their constituents. This input will inform the development of the detsiled scenarios to be drafted by the summer of2011. TItrough integrated regional land use, housing, and transportation investments, the Initial Vision Scenario proposes a sustainable pattern of regional growth that maximizes the reduction of greenhouse gas emissiollS while accommodating the entire region's housing need through 2035. In this scenario, which is unconstrained in terms of financial and other resources to support housing growth, Priority Development Areas (PDAs), Infill Opportunity Areas (areas not designated as PDAs, but that share many of the same attributes), and transit corridors accommodate a major share of housing growth. The development of the transportation network in the region by 2035 is aligned with those areas. As such the transportation network for the Initial Vision Scenario is based on Transportation 2035, but also includes improved transit headways to serve increased growth in PDAs and Infill Opportunity Areas. The attached maps show the Priority Development and Infill Opportunity Areas for the region and for each county. The Initial Vision Scenario relies on input from local jurisdictions and the characteristics of the places they identified for the distribution of growth. The Initial Vision Scenario differs from previous forecasts (projections 2007, 2009, 2011) in identifYing places to accommodate an additional demand for 267,000 households beyond Projections 2011 so thet the current phenomenon of "in-commuting" from adjoining regions does not worsen in the future. These prior forecasts were derived from Census Tracts. This scenario was constructed utilizing a detailed place-based approach, meaning that growth was distributed in specific neighborhoods or geographic locations based on their characteristics. Between November 2010 and January 2011, MTC and ABAG received input from local planners on the capacity for sustainable growth in PDAs and new Infill Opportunity Areas to supplement the inforntation gathered through the PDA Assessment. To the extent possible, MTC and ABAG staff used local estirustes of ATTACHMENT 8 Overview of the Initial Vision Scenario In 2008, Senate Bil1375 (Steinberg) was enacted. The state law requires that our Regional Transportation Plan contain a Sustainable Communities Strategy (together, Plan Bay Area) that integrates land-use planning and transportation planning. For the 25-year period covered by Plan Bay Area, the Sustainable ConmlUnities Strategy must identify areas within the nine-county Bay Area sufficient to house all of the region's population, including all economic segments of the population. It must also attempt to coordinate the resulting land-use pattern with the transportation network so as to reduce per capita greenhouse-gas emissions from personal-use vehicles (automobiles and light trucks). The Initial Vision Scenario for Plan Bay Area is a first-cut proposal that identifies the areas where the growth in the region's popUlation might be housed. This proposal builds upon a rich legacy of integrative planning in the Bay Area. For over a decade, the region and its local governments have been working together to locate new housing in compact forms near jobs, close to services and amenities, and adjacent to transit so that the need to travel long distances by personal vehicle is reduced. Compact development within the existing urban footprint also takes development pressure offthe region's open space and agricultural1ands. We have referred to this type of efficient development as "focused growth," and the regional program that supports it is called FOCUS. (See Table I.) Planning for New Housing and Supporting Infrastructure The Initial Vision Scenario is constructed by looking first at the Bay Area's regional housing needs over the next 25 years. This analysis was performed using demographic projections of household growth. It is not a forecast of the region, and does not take into account many factors that constrain the region's supply of new housing units, such as limitations in supporting infrastructure, affordable housing subsidies, and market factors. The principal purpose of the Initial Vision Scenario is to articulate how the region could potentially grow over time in a sustainable manner, and to orient policy and program development to achieve the first phases of implementation. Under the assumptions of the Initial Vision Scenario, the Bay Area is anticipated to grow by over 2 million people, from about 7,350,000 today to about 9,430,000 by the year 2035. This popUlation growth would require around 902,000 new housing units. The Initial Vision Scenario proposes where these new units might be accommodated. (See Tables 2 -12.) This Initial Vision Scenario is designed around places for growth identified by local jurisdictions. These places are defined by their character, scale, density, and the expected housing units to be built over the long term. Using "place types," areas with similar characteristics and physical and social qualities, ABAG asked local governments to 1 identifY general development aspirations for areas within their jurisdictions. These places were mostly the Priority Development Areas (PDAs) already identified through the FOCUS program. They also included additional Growth Opportunity Areas, some similar to PDAs and others with different sustainability criteria. Based on local visions, plans and growth estimates, regional agencies distributed housing growth across the region, focusing on PDAs and Growth Opportunity Areas. ABAG in some cases supplemented the local forecast with additional units based on the typical characteristics of the relevant locally-selected place type. ABAG also distributed additional units to take advantage of significant existing and planned transit investment, and it assigned some units to locally identified areas that present regionally significant development opportunities for greater density. The Initial Vision Scenario accommodates 97 percent of new households within the existing urban footprint. Only 3 percent of the forecasted new homes require "greenfield development" (building on previously undeveloped lands). Priority Development Areas and Growth Opportunity Areas contain about 70 percent ofthe total growth (743,000 households). Among counties, three take the lion's share of growth: Santa Clara, Alameda and Contra Costa absorb a little over two-thirds of the total. These same counties also are anticipated to take the majority of the region'sjob growth (64 percent). (See Tables 13 22.) The region's three major cities do a lot of the heavy lifting. Thirty-two percent of the forecast and proposed housing growth occurs in San Jose, San Francisco and Oakland. Seventeen percent goes to medium-sized cities like Fremont, Santa Rosa, Berkeley, Hayward, Concord, and Santa Clara. The analysis embodied in the Initial Vision Scenario is founded on the location of housing. Employment forecasting and distribution in this Scenario is not directly related to land use policy. Employment location can have a strong influence on travel demand, vehicle miles traveled, and vehicle greenhouse-gas emissions. In light of these factors and considering economic competitiveness, transit sustainability, and a balanced relationship between employment and housing, regional agencies will be embarking, with local partoers, on further analysis regarding appropriate employment locations in relation to future housing growth and the transportation network. This will inform the development of the detailed scenarios. The Initial Vision Scenario reflects the transportation investments from MTC's current Regional Transportation (known as the Transportation 2035 Plan). To support the increased housing growth, it also includes some tentatively proposed improvements to the region's transit network. These include increased frequencies on over 70 local bus and several express bus routes, improved rail headways on BART, eBART, Caltrain, Muni Metro, VTA light-rail, and Altamont Commuter Express, and more dedicated bus lanes in San Francisco and Santa Clara counties, all resulting in overall growth in transit capacity. However, the Bay Area's transit system is fmancially unsustainable with operators unable to afford to run the current service levels into the future, much less expanded headways contemplated under the Initial Vision Scenario. MTC's Transit Sustainability Project will propose a more sustainable transit system for inclusion in the detailed scenarios to be tested. 2 Measuring Performance Against Targets The Initial Vision Scenario results in a 12 percent per capita greenhouse gas emissions reduction from personal-use vehicles in 2035, compared to a 2005 base year. This reduction falls short of the region's state-mandated 15 percent per capita greenhouse gas emissions reduction target. It's clear that additional strategies will need to be employed if we want to attain the greenhouse gas targets, and other targets previously adopted by ABAG and MTC. MTC and ABAG have adopted a set of Plan Bay Area performance targets to describe in specific, measureable terms the region's commitruent and progress toward the "three E" principles of sustainability (Economy, Environment, and Equity). The Initial Vision Scenario meets some regional targets, including accommodating all the projected housing need by income level (in other words, no more in-commuting by workers who live in other regions); reducing the financial burden of housing and transportation on low-income households by providing more affordable housing; and housing the majority of new development within the existing urban core. Also, more residents are projected to ride transit, walk and bike more than existing residents because much of the new housing is located close to services, amenities and jobs, and adjacent to transit in complete communities. (See Figure 1 for the target results.) . The Initial Vision Scenario brings more residents into the region, thus increasing the total amount of travel. New residents will still drive for some trips. Even though vehicle miles traveled per capita in the Bay Area are projected to be lower in the Initial Vision Scenario than it is today, total miles driven within the region are projected to increase. With more Bay Area residents and more miles driven within the region, we can also expect an increase in the total number of injuries and fatalities. Health impacts from exposure to particulate emissions from automobiles and trucks are likewise projected to worsen with more driving; however, state and federal efforts to clean up heavy duty truck engines will more than off set the increases from automobiles, resulting in overall reductions sooty particulate pollution. Finally, it must be said that while bringing more people into the Bay Area will increase the amount of driving and collisions within the region, it is still a net win in the larger sense. The amount of overall driving and greenhouse gas emissions statewide is certainly less than if the new residents were commuting to Bay Area jobs from communities in neighboring regions that do not offer such amenities. Next Steps The Initial Vision Scenario is offered as basis for discussion with local governments, stakeholders, and the general public about how the Bay Area can accommodate all its population growth over the next quarter century. It is by no means a fait accompli. Over the next several months we will seek input through elected official briefings, local government staff discussions, and public workshops. The comments received will assist ABAG and MTC in developing and testing a range of detailed scenarios that achieve the greenhouse gas emission reduction targets. 3 The purpose of the SCS is. to forge consensus in the Bay Area on a preferred long-term regitmwide growth pattern. Under SB 375, local governments are explicitly not required to update their general plans in accordance with the SCS. 'The SCS does not carry the same authority as Regional Housing Needs Allocation but it will inform the distribution of housing at the local level. The adopted SCS land development pattern will help guide regional policies and investments that are made pursuant to the Regional Transportation Plan. These regional policies and investments are intended to create financial and other incentives to implement the adopted land pattern in the SCS. ABAG is currently working with its Housing Methodology Committee to develop a methodology for distributing regional eight-year housing targets to Bay Area local jurisdictions; the methodology will be adopted by ABAG later this year. The Initial Vision Scenario kicks offa two-year conversation among 10caIjurisdictions and regional agencies on what ultimately will become the Sustainable Communities Strategy, as a part of Plan Bay Area. During that time, the regional agencies will engage local agencies and the public to help identifY and assess several detailed Sustainable Communities Strategy scenarios that demonstrate ways that land-use strategies, transportation investments, pricing and other strategies could achieve our adopted goals and targets. The scenarios also will need to address how the Bay Area's land-use plans can assist adaptation to climate change. The Sustainable Communities Strategy will need to coordinate regional agencies' initiatives and requirements related to sea-level rise, air quality, and other climate change related issues. These detailed scenarios will lead to selection of a preferred scenario early next year that would include an integrated transportation investment and land-use plan; this plan would also undergo a detailed enviromnental impact review that local agencies could use to streamline enviromnental assessments of their own local development projects as provided for in SB 375. Finally, the ABAG and MTC boards would be asked to adopt the complete Plan Bay Area, including a Sustainable Communities Strategy, by April 2013. (See Figure 2.) The regional agencies look forward to further dialogue on these assumptions with our local government and transportation partners, stakeholders, and the general public. Attachments 4 Table 3 Initial Vision Scenario Total Jobs and Job Growth by County Table 4 Initial Vision Scenario -Alameda County Total Households and Household Growth by Jurisdiction Table 5 Initial Vision Scenario -Contra Costa County Total Households and Household Growth by Jurisdiction Table 6 Initial Vision Scenario -Marin County Total Households and Household Growth by Jurisdiction Table 7 Initial Vision Scenario -Napa County Total Households and Household Growth by Jurisdiction TableS Initial Vision Scenario -San Frallelsco CO/mty Total Households and Household Growth Table 9 Initial Visioll Scellario -San Mateo COUllty Total Households alld Household Growth by Jurisdiction Table 10 Initial Vision Scenario -Santa Clara County Total Households and Household Growth by Jurisdiction Table 11 Initial Vision Scenario -Solano County Total Households and Household Growth by Jurisdiction