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HomeMy WebLinkAboutStaff Report 198-05Implementation Plan Update Outlined below is the status update of the not-yet completed elements of the LEAP Implementation Plan. Tasks 1 through 3 were completed as of the prior report. 4. Evaluate and Design a Pilot Customer Demand-Response Program "Demand response" refers to short-term reductions in electricity use during times of high use or high cost and value. CPAU's voluntary curtailment program with large key customers is in place and is tested periodically. The most recent test in June 2004 reduced load by approximately 4 MW. The California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC), the regulatory oversight body for the investor-owned utilities, has approved large commercial and industrial tariffs that could increase prices during the highest demand hours (afternoon) to three times the usual rate when resources start to become insufficient to meet loads. Staff is closely following these retail rate approaches to demand management to see if such a retail rate approach results in significant customer participation and resulting peak load reduction. Staff conducted a customer survey of large facility managers in September to gather feedback regarding customer readiness and barriers to implementation. The survey identified three generic types of demand response programs: a. Voluntary Load Curtailment: customers reduce load when the system is under stress; b. Time-of-Use (TOU) rates: Electric rates would contain a price differential between different time periods, usually on and off peak, and customers modify/shift energy use to minimize overall operating costs, and; c. Economic Demand Response: Electric rates can change weekly, daily or even real time, reflecting changes in cost to CP AU, and customers modify/shift energy use in response. Seven of the twenty attendees responded to the survey. The feedback was almost unanimous, with all customers willing to reduce load when necessary either as good corporate citizens or in order to avoid blackouts. The other two options were not viewed favorably. Staff is also moving forward with the Meterlinks advanced metering program. Meterlinks is a web-based program where Palo Alto's largest utility customers and customer representatives . can view their utility usage profile on a website that is updated daily. Currently CPAU has 62 customer electric meters and 4 customer gas meters on the system. Staff can also view the citywide usage with connections to Citygate electric and gas meters. The Meterlinks program gives customers more information about their energy usage to help them make informed decisions regarding energy efficiency at their facilities. Meterlinks can also serve as a key customer interface that would be needed for any future demand response program designed by the Utilities Department. This platform or one like it could serve as a means to be able to quickly implement a demand response program and to be able to verify participation and actual load reductions. Meterlinks is also described in the public benefits plan staff report to the Uilities Advisory Commission (Attachment B). CMR:198:05 Page 3 of 9 CPAU has undertaken two distributed resources studies: distributed generation valuation methodology, and local resource integration. These applied research projects dovetail well with the local generation alternatives feasibility study. The distributed generation valuation methodology project is now complete. The final Palo Alto case study report from the CEC was finalized in January 2005, and is available at http://www.energy.ca.gov/pier/final project reports/CEC-500-2005-029.html. The results indicate that there several potential locations in Palo Alto, particularly the Stanford Research Park area, where small-scale supply resources could reduce system losses, enhance reliability and effective carrying capacity of the distribution system, and avoid some operating costs. These added benefits will be considered in comparing energy efficiency, cogeneration and small distributed generation alternatives in formulating recomme ndations for meeting CPAU's electric supply deficit. The local resource integration project is underway, being conducted by the Rocky Mountain Institute. The project includes estimating technical, economic and achievable potential for cogeneration and small-scale distributed generation, in coordination with energy efficiency opportunities described earlier. Staff is meeting with several large customers who have expressed interest in the applicability of cogeneration to their facilities to estimate the feasibility and practicality of implementing such a strategy. The RMI study will also examine the role that gas-fired generation would play in CPAU's diversified portfolio approach to meeting long-term electric supplies. The project is expected to be completed during the summer of 2005. Detailed technical and economic feasibility analysis of any specific recommended alternatives would be conducted by environmental and power engineering professionals. The results from the two studies will be combined in evaluating the technical and economic potential for local resource alternatives, both demand-side and supply-side, in developing recommendations for energy efficiency, distributed generation, and centralized gas-fired generation. 11. New Tools to Manage Portfolio Risk The dominant driver for electric portfolio risk is hydro uncertainty -the monthly, seasonal, and annual variability in hydroelectric generation Staff is evaluating various approaches to managing the cost impacts of fluctuations in hydro forecasts and generation. The Short-Term Electric Asset Management (STEAM) guidelines set the parameters for laddered fixed-price purchases, which currently serves as the main tool for stabilizing supply costs (CMR:331 :04). Additionally, staff is evaluating the robustness of the electric portfolio under various scenarios, testing how different scenarios are affected by including various quantities of different products and strategies. One potential tool for managing CPAU's hydro risk is an exchange of a physical volume of uncertain quantity (equal to the Western Base Resource), for a fixed physical volume of energy over a period of about 5 years. This type of exchange could dramatically reduce CPAU's hydro volume risk exposure within the exchange period. Staff anticipates seeking CMR:198:05 Page 60f9 Council approval, soliciting pncmg proposals and executing an agreement, if found acceptable, by fall 2005 for energy deliveries in 2006-2010. 12. Low-Cost, High Value Prospects to Acquire Supply Related Resources No specific, executable, high value supply opportunity has arisen to this point. The potential to reduce transmission costs while increasing reliability of supply to the City is being investigated. Staff continues to optimize existing available transmission and supply resources to maintain low and stable retail rates. 13. Analytical Tools used to Manage the Electric Portfolio Staff has implemented the use of revamped and upgraded electric portfolio computer models. A market transaction database is now in place that allows CPAU and ASD staff to closely track the market transactions staff is undertaking to fill the City's energy needs. Staff is also closely working with Western and NCPA to better model hydro production variability to better respond to cost variation caused by hydro production uncertainties. Staff is in the process of enhancing the existing scenario analysis and developing additional multiple scenarios and stress tests to test the portfolio's perfonnance and impact on reserves under such scenarios. 14. Monitor and Participate in Regulatory and Legislative Initiatives Utilities staff provided a legislative priorities report to the UAC in January 2005. The report describes the key areas affecting Palo Alto and is included as Attachment C. City and NCPA staff continue to actively participate in the California Independent System Operator (CAl SO) workgroups and Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) technical conferences to influence the proposals to redesign California's transmission markets, expected to be in place in the 2006-07 timeframe. CAISO costs continue to increase and the complexity of the proposed regulatory schemes continue to be unduly complex. Staff involvement here is essential to attempt to rein in the high costs of restructuring. There are also a number of ongoing proceedings and initiatives relating to Bay Area transmission planning and upgrades that staff, either directly or via the Bay Area Municipal Transmission Group is monitoring and participating in, with the goals to maintain grid reliability, promote a streamlined planning process, and support economic and reliability driven transmission projects. 15. Rate Stabilization Reserves In December 2003, Council approved revised Utility Reserves Guidelines (CMR: 483:03) to keep up with the changing nature of the electric supply portfolio. The guidelines specifically set aside approximately $22 million dollars to make additional energy purchases in the event of 2 consecutive dry hydro seasons, without having to increase retail electric rates to CMR:198:05 Page 7 of9 customers. Since commodity budgets are set based on average hydro conditions, staff expects to seek budget increases and draw down from reserves at mid-year if the actual hydro production turns out to be below average. The combined generation from Western and Calaveras for CY 2005 is projected to contribute 44% of the City's total supply (29% Western, 15% Calaveras), which in a normal hydro year would be 52% (39% Western, 13% Calaveras). The total supply rate stabilization rate reserve addresses numerous other risks in addition to hydro variability, with a total guideline range of $27 to $54 million for FY 2005- 2006. Activities in the electric supply rate stabilization reserves are detailed in the financial section of each UAC quarterly report. Market prices have increased and therefore a review of the financial reserves guidelines is scheduled with the UAC in April 2005. RESOURCE IMPACTS This report is a plan update. Resource requirements to implement elements of the plan have been included in the Council adopted budget. Specific contracts required to implement individual elements of the plan will be brought to Council at the appropriate times. POLICY IMPLICATIONS The LEAP Implementation Plan conforms to the Council approved LEAP Objectives and Guidelines. The plan is also in accordance with the Utilities Strategic Plan, Energy Risk Management Policies, and Comprehensive Plan Goal N-9. ATTACHMENTS A: LEAP Implementation Plan B: Public Benefits Plan 2005-2007 Report (UAC, Jan 2005) C: Legislative Priorities Report (UAC, Jan 2005) CMR:198:05 Page 80f9 '\ PREPARED BY: Ipek Connolly, Resource Planner Lindsay Joye, Marketing Engineer Karl Knapp, Sr. Resource Planner Brian Ward, Residential Acct. Rep REVIEWED BY: Debbie Lloyd, Resource Planner Monica Padilla, Resource Planner Shiva Swaminathan, Sr. Resource Planner Tom Kabat, Sr. Resource Planner Anthony Enerio, Manager Utilities Marketing Girish Balachandran, Assistant Director of Utilities Tom Auzenne, Assistant Director of Utilities DEPARTMENT HEAD: CITY MANAGER APPROVAL: CMR:198:05 JOHN ULRICH Director of Utilities EMILY HARRISON Assistant City Manager Page 90f9