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HomeMy WebLinkAboutStaff Report 171-10TO: FROM: ATTENTION: DATE: SUBJECT: HONORABLE CITY COUNCIL CITY MANAGER FINANCE COMMITTEE MARCH 16, 2009 DEPARTMENT: UTILITIES CMR: 171:10 Long-term Financial Projections and Revenue Requirements for the Electric, Water, Gas and Wastewater Collection Funds This is an informational report and no action is required. DISCUSSION Staff has discussed the five-year financial projections for the Electric, Water, Gas and Wastewater Collection Funds with the Utilities Advisory Commission (UAC). Staff does not recommend a retail revenue adjustment for FY 2011 for these four funds. Therefore, no action is proposed or recommended at this time for retail rate adjustments for electric, water, gas, and wastewater services. No rate changes are proposed for fiber services except for the EDF-1 fiber rate schedule, which has an annual adjustment tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). This rate adjustment and discussion of financial forecast for the Fiber Optic Fund will be provided to the Finance Committee at a later date. This report does not include an update on potential FY 2011 rate adjustments for refuse or storm drain services. When the attached reports were discussed by the UAC in February (for electric, water, and gas services) and in March (for wastewater services), staff's preliminary assessment was that no retail revenue adjustment was needed for electric, gas, or wastewater services, but that a 5% increase for water services was potentially justified since the wholesale cost of water is projected to rise in the future and a small increase in FY 2011 would reduce future annual rate increases. In February, the UAC asked staff to evaluate a scenario with no water rate increase. In late February, the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission provided updated wholesale water rate projections, which lowered projected rates for FY 2011 and the entire 5 -year forecast horizon. As a result of both UAC input and this new updated water supply cost information, staff now recommends no retail revenue adjustment for water services. Although no retail revenue adjustments are recommended for FY 2011 for the Electric, Water, Gas and Wastewater Collection Funds, staff may propose revenue -neutral rate structure changes to achieve policy objectives. Examples of these changes could include readjustment of tiered billing blocks for residential customers, or adjustments between the fixed and usage -based charges. In addition, the City has engaged a consultant to prepare a cost -of -service study for CMR: 171:10 Page 1 of 2 each of the four funds. These studies are not yet complete, but staff expects there will be realignments of costs between customer classes. Therefore, although no overall retail revenue increases are being proposed, rates for certain customer classes could be impacted by rate changes to align rates with the cost of service and certain customers within a customer class could be impacted by rate structure changes. Staff will discuss rate structure changes and potential realignment with costs of service with the UAC prior to preparing a recommendation for the Finance Committee or Council on any retail rate adjustments. Even if only revenue neutral changes are proposed to water and wastewater collection rates, the changes must follow the Proposition 218 noticing and public hearing process. If needed, this process will be followed. ATTACHMENTS A. February 3, 2010 Report to the UAC: Long-term Financial Projections and Revenue Requirements for the Water Fund B. February 3, 2010 Report to the UAC: Long-term Financial Projections and Revenue Requirements for the Gas Fund C. February 3, 2010 Report to the UAC: Long-term Financial Projections and Revenue Requirements for the Electric Fund D. March 9, 2010 Report to the UAC: Long-term Financial Projections and Revenue Requirements for the Wastewater Collection Fund E. March 9, 2010 Report to the UAC: Updated Long-term Financial Projections and Revenue Requirements for the Water Fund PREPARED BY: IPEK CONNOLLY Sr. Resource Planner JANE O. RATCHYE Utilities Assistant Director, Resource Management DEPARTMENT APPROVAL: CITY MANAGER APPROVAL: VALERIE Director of Utilities <21 JAM E�ENE City nager CMR: 171:10 Page 2 of 2 ATTACHMENT A MEMORANDUM 4 TO: UTILITIES ADVISORY COMMISSION FROM: UTILITIES DEPARTMENT DATE: FEBRUARY 3, 2010 SUBJECT: LONG-TERM FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS AND REVENUE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE WATER FUND This report is for discussion purposes only. No action is required. OVERVIEW This report discusses the projected costs and revenue requirements for the Water Fund for Fiscal Year (FY) 2011 through FY 2015. Staff assessed major cost drivers and expected costs, the short-term assessment of risks, reserve guidelines, and determined the revenue requirements for the Water Fund for the next five years. Based on this analysis, staff's preliminary recommendation is for a revenue adjustment for FY 2011 of $1.4 million, corresponding to an average rate increase of 5%. The financial forecast shows a requirement for additional rate increases of 5% per year for FY 2012 and FY 2013 followed by rate increases of 8% per year for FY 2014 and FY 2015. These rate adjustments achieve a gradual increase of required revenue stream to fund the expected operating expenses facing the Water Fund during the next five years, including the debt service for the bond financing of the City's Emergency Water Supply and Storage Project. They also achieve the goals of ensuring that the balance of the Water Rate Stabilization Reserve (W RSR) can cover the short-term risk assessment value and is between the Council -approved minimum and maximum guideline levels for the long-term forecast horizon. The impact of the projected 5% FY 2011 rate adjustment is $3.60 on an average residential customer's monthly utility bill of $72.01. Staff will return to the UAC in March 2010 with rate adjustment proposals to be effective in July 2010. Besides the preliminary recommendation for a 5% overall revenue adjustment, staff may propose rate structure changes that could impact customers more or less than the average 5%. These changes may be informed by the Cost of Service studies that are underway and other City policy objectives. BACKGROUND The revenue requirements and resulting rate adjustment targets depend on a number of components including sales revenue projections, water supply costs, distribution system Page 1 of 5 operating and capital improvement program (CIP) expenses, prudent rate stabilization and emergency plant replacement reserves, and debt service payments. Any change in one or more of these components can trigger a change, up or down, to the revenue requirement. During the budget process, staff forecasts load, revenues and expenses to quantify the annual revenue requirement. DISCUSSION Cost Drivers Total expenses for the Water Fund are projected to increase from their budgeted levels of $50.8 million in FY 2010 to $58.0 million in FY 2015 as shown in Table 1 below. Table 1 Five -Year Financial Plan - Projected Costs (in $thousands � ^4 S_ / .. .�, r.N H , Sy✓ czb. s r. __ _ Actual 2009 a..e. .. .. Adopted 2010 . _ _ z Projected 2010 .,n .r ,.e.m aw.4'',,, Projected 2011 45sF..n. .. 2012 ( w.-�+M .,.;...w 2013 ..sx... ,.:...».. 2014 se,. _... 2015 Fiscal Year OPERATING EXPENSES 1 PURCHASES 8,443 10,354 10,354 12,053 14,255 17,214 19,564 21,242 2 CUSTOMER DESIGN & CONN. (CIP) 343 400 400 410 420 430 440 450 3 SYSTEMIMPROVEMENT(CIP)- Nonbond 14,762 4,514 4,714 4,938 5,059 5,182 4,563 4,656 E 4 SYSTEM IMPROVEMENT(CIP)-Bond 0 22,500 22,500 3,500 0 0 8,000 16.000 X 5 OPERATIONS, & MAINT, OTHER ADMIN. 6,203 7,415 7,460 7,569 7,644 7,721 7,798 7,876 P 6 ALLOCATED CHARGES; E 7 COST PLANCI-IARGES&OTHER 507 1,106 1,106 1,134 1,146 1,157 1,169 1,180 N 8 UTILITIES ADMINISTRATION 1,123 1,346 1,346 1,350 1,363 1,377 1,391 1,405 s 9 TOTAL MAJOR ACTIVITIES 31,380 47,634 47,879 30,954 29,888 33,081 42,924 52,810 DEBT SERVICE 776 775 5,295 2,373 2,734 2,741 2,753 2,762 E 10 S 11 12 TRANSFER$; 2,667 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 GENERAL FUND TRANSFER 13 RENT 1,919 2,107 2,107 2,107 2,128 2,150 2,171 2,193 14 OTHERTRANSFER 987 258 258 223 225 228 230 232 15 SUB -TOTAL TRANSFER 5,573 2,365 2,365 2,331 2,354 2,377 2,401 2,425 16 TOTAL OPERATING EXPENSES 37,730 50,774 55,639 35,657 34,976 38,199 48,078 67,997 There are two main drivers for the cost increases facing the Water Fund: Purchases (water supply costs), and CIP related costs. Water supply costs are projected to more than double from their current levels of $10.4 million in FY 2010 to $21.2 million in FY 2015. This is due to planned infrastructure upgrade projects that are being undertaken by the City's primary water supplier, the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission (SFPUC). The City Council supports the infrastructure upgrade effort that will repair and upgrade the regional water supply system. The costs of this project are being shared by all of the SFPUC's water customers. Another sizeable expenditure is for the City's emergency water reservoir and well infrastructure project. The funds for this project are primarily from the issuance of municipal bonds in the amount of $35.0 million earlier this year. The debt service expense for the project is $2.0 million per year. Combined with the existing $775,000 debt service costs in the Water Fund, total debt service payments will be $2.8 million annually. Page 2 of 5 Staff is also considering another large capital project to extend the recycled water distribution system that may impact the Water Fund within the five-year forecast horizon. The capital expenditure for this project could total over $32 million and significant expenditures could start in FY 2014. The sources of funds for the project have not been identified at this time, but are likely to include a combination of state and federal grants, and a state low interest loan. Additional funds for the recycled water project could come from project partners that have not yet been identified and bond proceeds for the balance of the project costs. Customer connection -related CIP costs, which are funded by customer connection fees, are projected to increase by 3% annually and other ongoing CIP project costs to fund planned system improvement activities by the Water Fund are projected to remain steady around their current levels of $4.7 million throughout the forecast horizon. Staff projects a long-term net cost increase of 1% per year in other operating expenditures such as operations, maintenance and administration costs; allocated cost plan and Utilities administration charges; rents, and other transfers. Financial Resources, Required Reserve Levels and Revenue Requirements Based on the City's Audited Financial Report (CAFR) for FY 2009, the W-RSR ended the fiscal year with a balance of $5.4 million. This is slightly above the minimum reserve guideline level of $5.3 million and well above the annual risk assessment value of $3.6 million. The balance of the W-RSR is projected to be $10.3 million at the end FY 2010. While this is slightly above the maximum reserve guidelines of $8.0 million, staff recommends annual rate adjustments of 5% through FY 2013 followed by increases of 8% per year in FY 2014 and FY 2015 in order to achieve a gradual increase of revenue to fund the expected operating expenses facing the Water Fund. Table 2 presents the projected financial resources available to the Water Fund, revenue requirements, required rate adjustments and W-RSR levels. Without a rate adjustment, the W RSR would have a balance much lower than minimum guideline levels starting in FY 2013. With the projected rate adjustments, the Water Fund remains financially viable throughout the forecast horizon. Page 3 of 5 Table 2 Five -Year Financial Plan - Projected Financial Resources and Revenue Re i uirements Fiscal Year Projected 2010 Projected 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Total Sources of Funds Total Uses of Funds Into/(Out of) Reserves ST Risk Assessed Value LT Minimum Guideline LT Maximum Guideline REQUIRED RATE ADJUSTMENTS 3,541 5,303 13,258 66,026 50,819 15,207 14,089 3,765 4,330 8,660 66,297 55,539 10,757 10,282 3,765 4,330 8,660 34,673 35,657 (985) 9,297 4,168 4,515 9,030 % Change in System Average Rate hange in Retail Sales Revenue Ending RSR 8.0% 1,981 5,400 5.0% 1,375 14,089 5.0% 1,375 10,282 5.0% 1,433 10,671 31,069 34,976 (3,907) 5,391 4,813 9,626 5.0% 1,528 9,863 30,824 38,199 (7,374) (1,984) 5,059 10,118 5.0% 1,606 7,388 38,944 48,078 (9,134) (11,117) 5,469 10,938 47,033 57,997 (10,964) (22,081) 5,912 11,825 Customer Bill Impact The impact of the projected rate adjustment in FY 2011 on an average residential customer's monthly utility bill is estimated to be $3.60, on a total bill of $72.01 per month. Rate Comparison with Neighboring Cities The City currently has higher water costs than neighboring cities as shown in Table 3 below. Comparisons are based on the average residential customer usage of 14 CCF (one hundred cubic feet) per month. Monthly bills are based on the most recently posted rates for each jurisdiction. Table 3 Water Utility Residential Benchmark Comparison Current FY 2010 as .of Janua 1, 2010 The required revenue increases discussed in this report may have an impact on the City's relative position depending on future financial decisions by all cities compared here. ATTACHMENT Five -Year Financial Projections for the Water Fund Page 4 of 5 PREPARED BY: ERIC KENISTON, Associate Resource Planner IPEK CONNOLLY, Senior Resource Planner REVIEWED BY: JA E RATCHYE I As . istant Director, Resource Management DEPARTMENT HEAD: VALE FONG Director of Utilities Page 5 of 5 Fiscal Year Actual 2009 Adopted Projected Projected 2010 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 1 2 3 % CHANGE IN RETAIL RATE SYSTEM AVERAGE RATE ($/CCF) SALES UNITS (CCFs) 8.0%i 4.96 5,395 5.0% 5.21 5,543 5.0% 5.21 5,543 5.0% 5.47 5,504 5.0% 5.0% 5.74 6.03 5,588 5,594 8.0% 6.51 5,600 8.0% 7.03 5,605 4 WATER UTILITY REVENUE 5 R 6 E 7 v E N u E s 9 10 11 12 13 4 15 SALES REVENUE: RATE ADJUSTMENT PRORATION IMPACT 24,757 1,981 (83) 27,493 1,375 (57) 27,494 1,375 (57) 28,666 1,433 (60) 30,559 1,528 (64) 32,024 32,120 1,606 (67) 33,660 33,759 36,496 2,701 1 2,920 (113) (122) TOTAL ADJUSTED SALES 26,655 28,810 28,811 30,039 36,348 39,294 UNMETERED SALES/OTHER INTEREST OTHER REVENUE CONNECTION FEES FROM RESERVES: RATE STABILIZATION CIP BOND PROCEEDS (127) 1,788 275 833 7,711 0 138 1,265 131 682 0 35,000 138 1,265 334 749 0 35,000 138 1,265 337 767 0 3,500 138 889 341 776 808 0 138 798 344 785 2,474 0 138 1,192 8,348 795 1,259 0 138 1,689 16,351 804 0 0 16 TOTAL FINANCIAL RESOURCES 37,135. 66,026 66,297 36,046 34,976 38,199 48,078 58,275 34 35 36 37 38 OPERATING EXPENSES PURCHASES CUSTOMER DESIGN & CONN. (CIP) SYSTEM IMPROVEMENT(CIP) - Nonbond SYSTEM IMPROVEMENT(CIP) - Bond OPERATIONS, & MAINT, OTHER ADMIN. ALLOCATED CHARGES: COST PLAN CHARGES & OTHER UTILITIES ADMINISTRATION TOTAL MAJOR ACTIVITIES 8,443 343 14,762 0 6,203 507 1,123 31,380 10,354 400 4,514 22,500 7,385 1,106 1,346 47,604 10,354 400 4,714 22,500 7,460 1,106 1,346 47,879 12,053 410 4,938 3,500 7,569 1,134 1,350 30,954 14,255 420 5,059 0 7,644 1,146 1,363 29,888 DEBT SERVICE TRANSFERS: GENERAL FUND TRANSFER RENT OTHER TRANSFER SUB -TOTAL TRANSFER 776 2,667 1,919 987 5,573 7, 775 0 2,107 258 2,365 5,295 0 2,107 258 2,365 2,373 0 2,107 223 2,331 60- 2,734 0 2,128 225 2,354 17,214 430 5,182 0 7,721 1,157 1,377 33,081 0 2,150 228 2,377 976 RESERVE ADDITIONS: PLANT REPLACEMENT RATE STABILIZATION DEBT SERVICE RESERVE TOTAL RESERVE ADDITIONS: (595) 0 0 (595) 0 10,982 4,300 15,282 0 4,882 5,875 10,757 0 389 0 389 0 0 0 0 39 TOTAL REVENUE REQUIREMENT 37,135 66,026 66,297 36,046 34,976 R E 40 RESERVES BALANCES 41 PLANT REPLACEMENT 42 RATE STABILIZATION 43 CIP DEBT SERVICE 1,000 5,400 780 1,000 14,089 5,080 20,169 1,000 10,282 6,655 1,000 10,671 3,155 1,000 9,863 3,155 S 44 TOTAL RESERVES BALANCES E R V E s 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 Short Term Risk Assessment Value Long Term Rate Stabilization Guidelines RSR Minimum RSR Maximum 7;180 3,594 5,303 13,258 11111111PORAVIE 3,765 4,330 8,660 17,937 3,765 4,330 8,660 14,826 4,168 4,515 9,030 14018 4,813 9,626 t x , 2010 2011Zc:' 38,199 1,000 7,388 3,155 10,118 19,564 440 4,563 8,000 7,798 1,169 1,391 42,924 2,171 230 2,401 48,078 1,000 6,130 3,155 10,938 21,242 450 4,656 16,000 7,876 1,180 1,405 52,810 2,762 0 2,193 232 2,425 5997.. 0 278 0 278 58,275 1,000 6,408 3,155 0,563 5,912 11,825 2015 ATTACHMENT B MEMORANDUM TO: UTILITIES ADVISORY COMMISSION FROM: UTILITIES DEPARTMENT DATE: FEBRUARY 3, 2010 SUBJECT: LONG-TERM FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS AND REVENUE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE GAS FUND This report is for discussion purposes only. No action is required. OVERVIEW This report discusses the projected costs and revenue requirements for the Gas Fund for the next five years starting Fiscal Year (FY) 2011 through FY 2015. Staff assessed cost trends and projections, short-term assessment of risks, and existing reserve guidelines and determined the revenue requirements for the Gas Fund for the next five years. Based on this analysis, staff's preliminary recommendation is' for no revenue adjustment for FY 2011. Based on projections as of December 2009, the expected revenue adjustments for the remaining four years of the forecast horizon are 6%, 4%, 3% and 3%. These rate adjustments would achieve the goals of ensuring that the balances of the Gas Supply and Distribution Rate Stabilization Reserves (G-SRSR and G-DRSR) can cover the short-term risk assessment value and are between the Council -approved minimum and maximum guideline levels for the long- term forecast horizon. Staff will return to the UAC in March 2010 with rate adjustment proposals to be effective in July 2010. Despite the preliminary recommendation for no overall revenue adjustment, staff may still propose rate structure changes that could impact customers, if warranted by the Cost of Service studies that are underway and other City policy objectives. BACKGROUND The revenue requirements and resulting rate adjustment targets depend on a number of components including sales revenue projections, distribution system operating and capital improvement program (CIP) expenses, prudent rate stabilization and emergency plant replacement reserves, and debt service payments. Any change in one or more of these components can trigger a change, up or down, to the revenue requirement. During the budget process, staff forecasts load, revenues and expenses to quantify the annual revenue requirement. Page 1 of 5 DISCUSSION Cost Drivers Total expenses for the Gas Fund are projected to increase from their budgeted levels of $45.9 million in FY 2010 to $50.7 million in FY 2015, a 4% average annual increase as shown in Table 1 below. Table 1 Five -Year Financial Plan - Pro'ected Costs $thousands 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 TOTAL MAJOR ACTIVITIES Fiscal Year OPERATING EXPENSES SUPPLY: PURCHASES OPERATIONS & MAINT., OTHER ADMIN. ALLOCATED CHARGES COST PLAN CHARGES & OTHER UTILITIES ADMINISTRATION SUB -TOTAL SUPPLY DISTRIBUTION. CUSTOMER DESIGN & CONN. (CIP) SYSTEM IMPROVEMENT (CIP) OPERATIONS & MAINT., OTHER ADMIN. ALLOCATED CHARGES: COST PLAN CHARGES & OTHER UTILITIES ADMINISTRATION CI ICI TnrAM niSTRiRI ITInN 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 DEBT SERVICE TRANSFERS - GENERAL FUND TRANSFER RENT OTHER TRANSFER SUB -TOTAL TRANSFER TOTAL OPERATING EXPENSES Actual 681 7,898 5,087 690 1,699 5,829 690 1,699 6,729 25,091 94 76 25,934 1,070 941 15.677 41,611 39,026 Adopted Projected 2010 2010 26,859 171 58 28,220 1,344 1,244 10,806 949 947 3,135 5,300 205 215 1,638 367 4,978 5,882 47,537 45,854 22,475 171 58 23,837 1,344 1,244 11,706 35,642 42,818 41,655 Projected 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 24,595 175 58 25,946 700 7,625 5,938 1,360 1,248 16 872 23,838 177 59 25,202 710 7,111 5,998 1,374 1,261 16 453 947 947 948 5,300 4,930 8,003 215 215 218 367 396 396 5,882 5,542 6,618 42,371 49,307 49,221 24,514 1,140 179 59 25,892 720 7,468 6,058 1,388 1,273 16,907 42,799 948 8,567 221 396 7,184 50,931 25,350 1,151 181 60 26,742 730 4,657 6,118 1,401 1,286 14,193 40,936 948 7,218 224 396 7,838 49,722 25,972 1,163 182 61 27,378 752 4,683 6,179 1,415 1,299 14,329 41,706 948 7,488 227 398 8,091 50,746 Commodity purchases constitute the largest cost item for the Gas Fund, accounting for 50% of total costs, or $24.6 million in FY 2011. Supply costs remain volatile, but are mitigated by the current laddering strategy. This cost category is projected to remain relatively flat throughout the forecast horizon, expected to increase from $26.0 million in FY 2011 by an average of 1.4% per year, over the five year forecast horizon. CIP costs are projected to increase to their pre -FY 2010 levels as the $5.0 million deferred CIP expenditures (due to a modification in the project implementation plans for system improvements) are expected to resume starting in FY 2011. Other Gas Fund expenses are projected to remain fairly stable throughout the rest of the forecast horizon increasing at only 1% per year due to expected recovery of the economy. The remaining costs consist of transfers to the General Fund and other funds and rent, which together account for 14% of total costs at $5.8 million in FY 2010. Rent is projected to increase by 1% per year, other transfers are projected to remain constant after FY 2010 and the General Fund Transfer is projected to increase based on the Council -approved equity transfer methodology. Altogether, these costs are projected to increase by 6.5% per year, totaling $8.1 million in FY 2015. Page 2 of 5 Financial Resources, Required Reserve Levels and Revenue Requirements Based on the City's Audited Financial Report (CAFR) for FY 2009, the G-SRSR ended the fiscal year with a balance of $8.7 million and the G-DRSR ended the fiscal year with a balance of $4.4 million. These levels are slightly below the minimum reserve guideline level of $8.8 million for G-SRSR and slightly above the minimum reserve guideline level of $3.9 million for the G- DRSR. Both ending reserve levels are well above the annual risk assessment values of $6.5 million for the G-SRSR and $3.4 million for the G-DRSR. Following a 10% gas rate reduction implemented on July 1, 2009, as of the end of FY 2010, the balance of the G-SRSR is projected to be $10.6 million and the balance of the G-DRSR is projected to be $5.1 million. At these levels, both reserves are expected to be within the minimum and maximum guideline levels as well as above the risk assessment values for FY 2010. Due to the high ending reserve levels expected for FY 2010, staff recommends no change in the average retail rate for core (pool) customers in FY 2011. Large customers that are on market - based commodity rates are expected to see a 32% average commodity rate increase based on projections as of December 2009. As a result, the system average rate is expected to increase by 3.7% in FY 2011 followed by increases of 6%, 4%, 3% and 3% in each of the remaining years of the five-year forecast horizon. Table 2 presents the projected financial resources available to the Gas Fund, revenue requirements, required rate adjustments and Gas RSR levels. Without a rate adjustment, the G- SRSR would have a balance much higher than the maximum guideline levels and G-DRSR would have a balance much lower than minimum guideline levels starting in FY 2011. With the projected rate adjustments, the Gas Fund remains financially viable throughout the forecast horizon. Page 3 of 5 Table 2 Five -Year Financial Plan - Projected Financial Resources and Revenue Requirements Fiscal Year WITHOUT RATE ADJUSTMENTS Total Sources of Funds Total Uses of Funds Intoi(Out of) Reserves Ending Supply RSR Ending Distribution RSR RSR RESERVE GUIDELINES Supply - ST Risk Assessed Value Supply - LT Minimum Guideline Supply LT Maximum Guideline Distribution - ST Risk Assessed Value Distribution - LT Minimum Guideline Distribution - LT Maximum Guideline REQUIRED RATE ADJUSTMENTS Change in Average Pool Retail Rate Change in Retail Sales Revenue Ending Supply RSR Ending Distribution RSA Actual 2009 49,488 48,773 715 8,731 4,445 6,500 8.782 18,818 3,390 3,942 9,854 7.1% 3,436 8,733 4.449 Adopted 2010 45,925 45,854 71 7.456 5,1792 5.800 6.715 13,429 3.759 2,684 5,368 -9.3% (4,647) 7,456 5.792 Projected 2010 44,983 42.371 2.612 10.644 5,144 5,800 5,619 11,238 3,759 2,646 5,293 -9.3% (4,605) 10,646 5.147 Projected 2011 45,099 49,307 (4,208) 11,036 544 5,700 6,149 12,298 4,070 3,230 6,460 0.0% 745 7,961 4.340 2012 45,106 49.221 (4,115) 12,561 ( 5,0961 5,959 11,919 3,460 6,919 6.0% 2,427 7,075 4,391 2013 45,072 50,931 (5,859) 13,601 (11.9951 6.128 12,257 3,471 6.941 4.0% 1,521 7,134 3.485 2014 44,940 49,722 (4,782) 13,960 (17,1361, 6,338 12,675 3.473 6,945 3.0% 1.185 7,695 4,589 2015 44,832 50,746 (5,914) 13,809 (2233991 6,493 12,986 3,475 6.950 3.0% 1,234 9.013 5,335 Customer Bill Impact There will be no change on an average residential customer's monthly utility bill in FY 2011 due to revenue requirements identified in this report unless structural rate changes are proposed when staff returns with rate proposals for the UAC's consideration at its March 2010 meeting. Rate Comparison with Neighboring Cities The City currently has a cost disadvantage with respect to the Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E), the gas utility for the neighboring cities as shown in Table 3 below. Comparisons are based on the average residential customer usage of 100 therms per month during the winter months and 30 therms per month during the summer months. Monthly bills shown are based on the average bill for the prior 12 months. Page 4 of 5 Table 3 Gas Utility Residential Benchmark Comparison Current FY 2010 as of January 1, 2010) The City's current relative position with respect to neighboring cities may change in the future depending on future financial decisions by PG&E. ATTACHMENT Five -Year Financial Projections for the Gas Fund PREPARED BY: REVIEWED BY: DEPARTMENT HEAD: ERIC KENISTON, Associate Resource Planner IPEK CONNOLLY, Senior Resource Planner JANE RATC Assistant Director, Resource Management 4, VALERIE Director of Utilities Page 5 of 5 Actual Fiscal Year 2009 Adopted Projected 2010 2010 Projected 2011 2012 2013 2014 1 2015 2 3 % CHANGE IN TOTAL SYSTEM RETAIL RATE. % CHANGE IN AVERAGE POOL RETAIL RATE TOTAL SYSTEM AVG RATE ($/ THERM) SALES UNITS (THERMS) GAS UTILITY REVENUE BASE SALES REVENUE: COMMODITY SALES DISTRIBUTION SALES SUB -TOTAL BASE SALES REVENUE RATE ADJUSTMENT: COMMODITY DISTRIBUTION TOTAL RATE ADJUSTMENT PRORATION IMPACT 7.1% 7.1% 1.51 31,468 -10.0% -13.5% -9:3% 1:45 30,886 -9.3% 1.39 30,550 3.7% 0.0% 1.44 30,882 6.1% 3.5% 6.0% 4.0% 1.53 1.59 30,900 30,919 2.7% 3.0% 1.63 30,937 l` 2.7% 3.0% 1.67 30,956 R E v E N' u E' s 4 5 6' 7 9 10; 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1, 9t'' 20 21 22 SUB -TOTAL ADJUSTED S&D SALES DISCOUNTS/UNCOLLECTABLES NET ADJUSTED SALES REVENUE INTEREST OTHER REVENUE/RECONCILE TO SAP/COBUG FROM RESERVES DISTRIBUTION RSR SUPPLY RSR 24,312 19,709 44,021 3,436 0 3,436 (1 43) 47,314 (64) 47,249 1,614 (612) 29,126 20,001 49,126 (2,447) (2,200) (4,647) 194 44,673 (450) 44,223 1,010 693 27,309 19,721 47,030 (2,435) (2,169) (4.605) 192 42,617 (450) 42,167 1,010 1,806 25,986 23,094 17,743 21,712 43,729 44,806 (3.211) 3,957 745 (31) 44,443 (450) (450) 43,993 46,682 1,010 883 811 821 1,016 1,411 2,427 (101) 47,132 24,264 23,138 47,401 1,521 0 1,521 (63) 25,926 23,151 49,077 1,185 0 1,185 (49) 48,859 50,212 (450) 48,409 846 831 27,233 23,165 50,399 1,234 0 1,234 (J1) 51,581 (450) 51,131 854 824 289 0 0 1,275 0 0 808 2,686 0 886 906 0 (450) 49,762 785 841 0 0 0 0 TOTAL FINANCIAL RESOURCES 48,541 47,201 44;983 49,307 49,272 50,991 51,388 52,809 R E s E R v E s .OPggynN E SES RESERVE FUNDING: PLANT REPLACEMENT DISTRIBUTION RSR SUPPLY RSR SUB -TOTAL RESERVE FUNDING 473 (328) 0 1,332 1,004 0 1,346 0 1,346 0 698 1,913 2,612 0 0 0 0 0 51 0 51 0 0 60 60 0 1,105 561 1,666 0 746 1,317 2,063 TOTAL REVENUE REQUIREMENT 48,541 47,201 44,983 49,307 49,272 50,991 51,388 52,809 RESERVES BALANCES PLANT REPLACEMENT DISTRIBUTION RSR SUPPLY RSR DEBT SERVICE RESERVE TOTAL RESERVES BALANCES 1,000 4,449 8,733 952 15,134 Short Term Risk Assessment Value -Supply RSR 6,500 Short Term Risk Assessment Value- Distribution RSR 3,390 Long Term Rate Stabilization Guidelines Supply RSR Minimum Supply RSR Maximum Distribution RSR Minimum Distribution RSR Maximum 8,782 18,818 3,942 9,854 2' 4) 4 OPERATING EXPENSES SUPPLY: PURCHASES OPERATIONS & MAINT., OTHER ADMIN. ALLOCATED CHARGES: COST PLAN CHARGES & OTHER UTILITIES ADMINISTRATION SUB -TOTAL SUPPLY DISTRIBUTION: CUSTOMER DESIGN &CONN. (CIP) SYSTEM IMPROVEMENT (CIP) OPERATIONS & MAINT., OTHER ADMIN. ALLOCATED CHARGES' COST PLAN CHARGES & OTHER UTILITIES ADMINISTRATION SUB -TOTAL DISTRIBUTION TOTAL MAJOR ACTIVITIES 25,091 672 94 76 25,934 681 7,899 5,087 1,070 941 15,677 41,611 26,859 1,132 171 58 28,220 690 1,699 5,829 1,344 1,244 10,806 39,026 22,475 1,132 171 58 23,837 690 1,699 6,729 1,344 1,244 11,706 35,542 24,595 1,118 175 58 25,946 700 7,625 5,938 1,360 1,248 16,872 42,818 23,838 1,129 177 59 25,202 710 7,111 5,998 1,374 1,261 16,453 41,655 24,514 1,140 179 59 25,892 720 7,468 6,058 1,388 1,273 16,907 42,799 25,350 1,151 25,972 1,163 181 182 60 61 26,742 27,378 730 752 4,657 4,683 6,118 6,179 1,401 1,415 1,286 1,299 14,193 14,329 40,935 41,706 DEBT SERVICE TRANSFERS: GENERAL FUND TRANSFER RENT OTHER TRANSFER SUB -TOTAL TRANSFER 949 3,135 205 1,638 4,978 947 5,300 215 367 5,882 947 5,300 215 367 5,882 947 4,930 215 396 5,542 948 6,003 218 396 6,618 948 6,567 221 396 7,184 948 7,218 224 396 7,838 948 7,468 227 396 8,091 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 1,000 5,792 7,456 952 5,199. 5,800 3,759 6,715 13,429 2,684 5,368 1,000 5,147 10,646 952 17,745 5,800 3,759 5,619 11,238 2,646 5,293 1,000 4,340 7,961 952 4,252 5,700 4,070 6,149 12,298 3,230 6,460 1,000 4,391 7,075 952 13,417;. 5,959 11,919 3,460 6,919 1,000 3,485 7,134 952 12,571 6,128 12,257 3,471 6,941 1,000 4,589 7,695 952 14,237 . 6,338 12,675 3,473 6,945 1,000 5,335 9,013 952 16,300 6,493 12,986 3,475 6,950 -; 2010.x: Va0,1,1111,4 ..-201;2 ATTACHMENT C MEMORANDUM TO: UTILITIES ADVISORY COMMISSION FROM: UTILITIES DEPARTMENT DATE: FEBRUARY 3, 2010 SUBJECT: 6 LONG TERM FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS AND REVENUE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE ELECTRIC FUND This report is for discussion purposes only. No action is required. OVERVIEW This report discusses the projected costs and revenue requirements for the Electric Fund for the next five years starting Fiscal Year (FY) 2011 through FY 2015. Staff assessed cost trends and projections, short term assessment of risks, and existing reserve guidelines and determined the revenue requirements for the Electric Fund for the next five years. Based on this analysis, staff's preliminary recommendation is for no revenue adjustment for FY 2011. Based on projections as of December 2009, the expected revenue adjustments for the remaining four years of the forecast horizon are 8%, 8%, 4% and 0%, respectively. These rate adjustments would achieve the goals of ensuring that the balances of the Electric Supply and Distribution Rate Stabilization Reserves (E-SRSR and E-DRSR) can cover the short-term risk assessment value and are between the Council -approved minimum and maximum guideline levels for the long-term forecast horizon. Staff will return to the UAC in March 2010 with rate adjustment proposals to be effective in July 2010. Despite the preliminary recommendation for no overall revenue adjustment, staff may still propose rate structure changes that could impact customer bills, if warranted by the Cost of Service studies that are underway and other City policy objectives. BACKGROUND The revenue requirements and resulting rate adjustment targets depend on a number of components including sales revenue projections, distribution system operating and capital improvement program (CIP) expenses, prudent rate stabilization and emergency plant replacement reserves, and debt service payments. Any change in one or more of these components can trigger a change, up or down, to the revenue requirement. During the budget process, staff forecasts load, revenues and expenses to quantify the annual revenue requirement. Page 1 of 5 DISCUSSION Cost Drivers Total expenses for the Electric Fund are projected to increase from their budgeted levels of $130.2 million in FY 2010 to $149.2 million in FY 2015, a 15% increase in five years as shown in Table 1 below. Table 1 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 Five -Year Financial Plan - Pro ected Costs $ thousands Fiscal Year OPERATING EXrtNSEb SUPPLY PURCHASES SURPLUS ENERGY COST PA -GREEN POWER PURCHASES DEBT SERVICES: CAMERAS SUPPLY FUNDED ALTERNATIVE RESOUR SUPPLY RESOURCE, OTHER ADMIN ALLOCATED CHARGES' COST PLAN CHARGES & OTHER UTILITIES ADMINISTRATION SUB -TOTAL SUPPLY DISTRIBUTION OPERATIONS & MAINT, OTHER ADMIN PUBLIC BENEFITS PROGRAMS CUSTOMER DESIGN & CONNECTION CIP SYSTEM IMPROVEMENT (GP) STREET UGHT, TRAFFIC SIGNAL O&M STREET LIGHT, TRAFFIC SIGNAL CIP COMMUNICATIONS O&M & CIP ALLOCATED CHARGES: COST PLAN CHARGES & OTHER UTILMES ADMINISTRATION SUB -TOTAL DISTRIBUTION TRANSFERS: GENERAL FUND TRANSFER RENT OTHER TRANSFERS TOTAL OPERATING EXPENSES 71,127 3,305 611 8,086 1 2,062 172 240 85,603 10,753 3,409 2,320 7,504 709 0 3,730 2,060 30,796 9,268 3,253 6,261 68,126 1,632 1,039 7,759 2,050 2,946 345 246 84,143 12,496 3,131 2,010 6,315 809 100 435 3,036 2,397 30,729 11,120 3,498 692 63,030 1,269 1,039 7,720 4,665 2,331 345 246 80,645 12,496 3,631 2,000 8,362 809 563 435 3,036 2,397 31,729 11,120 3,498 692 Projected 2011 64,030 1,967 1,080 8,849 2,165 2,342 356 247 81,037 12,558 3,576 2,100 8,070 809 800 440 3,066 2,406 33,826 11,530 3,498 819 71,068 2,623 1,134 8,855 2,571 2,365 360 249 89,225 12,684 3,338 2,200 10,645 818 800 448 3,097 2,430 36,459 12,065 3,533 819 135,200 130,182 127,684 130,710 142,102 143,894 69,971 1,939 1,191 8,987 2,781 2,389 363 252 87,873 12,811 3,610 2,300 8,912 826 800 456 3,128 2,454 35,297 12,493 3,568 819 060 70,856 2,318 1,250 9,076 3,294 2,413 367 254 89,828 12,939 3,765 2,400 9,925 834 800 465 3,159 2,479 36,765 12,877 3,604 819 76,396 2,426 1,313 9,079 4,011 2,437 370 257 96,288 13,068 3,841 2,450 9,425 842 800 473 3,191 2,504 36,594 13,311 3,640 819 The cost of purchases to serve load constitutes the largest cost item for the Electric Fund, accounting for approximately half of total costs. This cost category includes the cost of buying, scheduling and transmitting power to meet load and the cost of meeting local and state requirements for reliability and renewable energy. The cost is highly uncertain as it is dependent on hydrology and weather conditions, volatile market prices, and legislative and regulatory requirements. The cost of purchases to serve load is projected to decrease from $71.1 million in FY 2009 to $63.0 million in FY 2010. The expectation for FY 2011 is also around this level ($64.0 million) thus providing significant relief to electric customers. The five-year projection of the cost of purchases to serve load is a gradual 4% annual average increase, ending at $76.4 million by FY 2015. Other supply -related costs account for 14% of total costs in the Electric Fund. Of these, PaloAltoGreen power purchases are budgeted at $1.0 million in FY 2010 and projected to increase by 5% per year throughout the forecast horizon ending at $1.3 million in FY 2015. The supply -funded alternative resource budget consists of energy efficiency and solar photovoltaic Page 2 of 5 program -related incentives and other program costs funded through electric supply rates. These funds are budgeted in addition to the legislated Public Benefits funds that are collected through Public Benefits Charges, which are designated for energy efficiency and other legislated programs. The combined Public Benefits and supply -funded alternative resource budget is estimated to be $6.5 million in FY 2010. This includes the $2.0 million from Calaveras Reserve to be used as seed money for the Energy Efficiency Financing Program for Businesses. The combined budget is projected to increase from $5.7 million in FY 2011 to $7.9 million by FY 2015 as part of the planned update of the long-term Energy Efficiency Plan, which is planned for discussion at the UAC's March 2010 meeting. The Electric Fund's projected FY 2010 Distribution budget of $31.7 million accounts for 25% of total costs in the Electric Fund. About 30% of this, or $8.9 million, is due to CIP-related activities, which is expected to grow at 7% per year to total $12.7 million in FY 2015. The remaining $22.8 million in the FY 2010 Distribution budget consists of operating expenses and allocated charges, which together are expected to increase at 1% per year totaling $23.9 million in FY 2015. The remaining costs consist of transfers to the General Fund and other funds and rent, which together account for 12% of total costs at $15.3 million in FY 2010. Rent is projected to increase by 1% per year, other transfers are projected to remain constant and the General Fund Transfer is projected to increase based on the Council -approved equity transfer methodology. Altogether, these costs are projected to increase by 3% per year, totaling $17.8 million in FY 2015. Required Reserve Levels and Revenue Requirements Based on the City's Audited Financial Report (CAFR) for FY 2009, the E-SRSR ended the fiscal year with a balance of $41.4 million and the E-DRSR ended the fiscal year with a balance of $6.3 million. These levels are between the minimum and maximum reserve guideline levels and above the annual risk assessment values of $33.8 million for the E-SRSR and $4.6 million for the E-DRSR. As of the end of FY 2010, the balance of the E-SRSR is projected to be $40.2 million and the balance of the E-DRSR is projected to be $9.5 million. At these levels, both reserves are expected to be within the minimum and maximum guideline levels as well as above the risk assessment values for FY 2010. Due to the higher than budgeted ending reserve levels projected for FY 2010, staff recommends no change in the average retail rate for electric customers in FY 2011. Given the projections outlined in this report, there may be additional rate adjustments necessary for the next two years beyond the budget year at 8% for FY 2012 and FY 2013, and 4% for FY 2014. Staff projects average retail rates not to exceed 14.0 cents per kWh by FY 2015. Table 2 presents the projected financial resources available to the Electric Fund, revenue requirements, required rate adjustments and RSR levels. Without a rate adjustment, both the Supply and Distribution RSRs would have a balance much lower than minimum guideline levels starting in FY 2012. With the projected rate adjustments, the Electric Fund remains financially viable throughout the forecast horizon. Page 3 of 5 Table 2 Five -Year Financial Plan - Projected Financial Resources, Revenue Requirements, Rate Ad'ustments, and Reserve Levels Fiscal Year WITHOUT RATE ADJUSTMENTS Total Sources of Funds Total Uses of Funds Intoi(Out of) Reserves From Calaveras Reserves Ending Supply RSR Ending Distribution RSR Ending Calaveras Reserve RSR RESERVE GUIDELINES Supply • ST Risk Assessed Value Supply - LT Minimum Guideline Supply LT Maximum Guideline Distribution - ST Risk Assessed Value Distribution - LT Minimum Guideline Distribution - LT Maximum Guideline REQUIRED RATE ADJUSTMENTS % Change in System Average Rate Projected Change in Retail Sales Revenue From Calaveras Reserves Ending Supply RSR Ending Distribution RSR Ending Calaveras Reserve Actual 2009 130,487 142,497 (12,010) 10,086 41,607 6,342 64,535 33,800 35,455 70,910 4,588 6,654 16.636 14.1% 12.918 10,086 41,442 6,342 64,535 Adopted 2010 129,943 137,082 (7,134) 2,907 32.541 8,396 64,209 33,600 34,013 68,026 5,784 6,450 12,901 10.0% 10.338 2,907 32,541 8,396 64.209 Projected 2010 131,398 134,684 (3,286) 4.670 40,406 9,457 59,865 33,600 34,013 68,026 5,784 6,389 12,778 10.0'/, 10.212 4.670 40,241 9,457 59.865 Projected 2011 128,993 137,709 (8,715) 4,108 37,768 7,967 55,757 26,700 32,015 64,030 6,934 6,355 12.710 35,534 34,986 35.428 38.198 0.0% 4,108 37.603 7,967 55.757 2012 130,307 148,862 (18,555) 3,597 27,030 3,748 52,160 71,068 6,694 13,387 8.0% 8,956 3.597 33,090 5,859 52,160 2013 129,028 146,540 (17,512) 2,460 15,585 141 49,700 69,971 7,050 14,101 8.0% 9,694 2,460 34,690 7,282 49.70 2014 129,680 150,231 (20,551) 2,280 2,409 (4,954) 47,420 70,856 7,059 14,118 4.0% 5,240 2.280 40,253 7,541 47.420 2015 131,174 156,972 (25,797) 2,188 (16,563) (9,591) 45,232 76,396 7,191 14.383 0.0% 2,188 41.323 8,566 45.232 Customer Bill Impact There will be no change to an average residential customer's monthly utility bill in FY 2011 due to revenue requirements identified in this report. However, there could be bill impacts due to structural rate changes which may be proposed when staff returns with rate proposals for the UAC's consideration at its March 2010 meeting. Rate Comparison with Neighboring Cities The City currently has a cost advantage with respect to the electric utility costs in comparison with neighboring cities served by the Pacific Gas and Electric Company. However, Santa Clara, served by Silicon Valley Power, has rates that result in a lower bill for the average residential customer. Table 3 below presents the average residential customer's monthly bill for four neighboring cities using current rates. Comparisons are based on an average usage of 650 kWh per month. Monthly bills are based on the most recently posted rates in each jurisdiction. Page 4 of 5 Table 3 Electric Utility Residential Benchmark Comparison Current FY 2010 (as of January 1, 20.10) The required revenue increases discussed in this report may impact the City's current relative position depending on future financial decisions by the electric utilities that serve the cities compared here. ATTACHMENT Five -Year Revenue Projections for the Electric Fund PREPARED BY: ERIC KENISTON, Associate Resource Planner IPEK CONNOLLY, Senior Resource Planner REVIEWED BY: NE RATCHYE ssistant Director, Resource Management DEPARTMENT HEAD: VALERI$J O. F� fDNG Director of Utilities Page 5 of 5 Actual Adopted Fiscal Year 2009 2010 Projected Projected 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2 3 % CHANGE IN RETAIL RATE TOTAL AVERAGE RATE (MILLS/KM) SALES UNITS (GM) ELECTRIC FUND REVENUE BASE SALES REVENUES: COMMODITY SALES DISTRIBUTION SALES PUBLIC BENEFIT REVENUE SUB -TOTAL BASE SALES REVENUE RATE ADJUSTMENT: COMMODITY DISTRIBUTION PUBLIC BENEFIT TOTAL RATE ADJUSTMENT PRORATION IMPACT 14.1% 105 996 10.0% 116 981 10.0% 116 972 0.0% .,. 116 967 8.0% 125 968 8.0% 135 969 4.0%i 0.0% 140 140 970 988 R E V E` N; u 4 5 6 7 8, 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 56,501 33,271 2,485 92,257 12,633 0 285 12,918 (538) 67,266 32,952 2,854 103,072 0 10,050 288 10,339 (431) 66,626 32,638 2,854 102,118 0 9,955 257 10,212 (425) 66,273 42,367 3,095 111,735 0 0 (0) 66,354 42,419 3,100 111,873 6,503 2,206 248 8,957 (373) 72,946 44,679 3,352 120,978 6,565 2,859 269 9,693 (404) 79,609 86,293 47,597 48,490 3,625 3,841 130,831 138,624 5,095 0 0 0 145 0 5,240 0 (218)I (0) TOTAL ADJUSTED BASE SALES REVENUE DISCOUNTS/UNCOLLECTABLES INTEREST SURPLUS ENERGY REVENUE PA -GREEN SALES REVENUE OTHER REVENUE STREET LIGHT, TRAFFIC SIGNAL CIF REIMS TELECOMMUNICATION REVENUE FROM RESERVES: SUPPLY RSR DISTRIBUTION RSR CALAVERAS P.B. RESERVE CVP CUSTOMER O&M FUNDING 104,637 (374) 7,712 3,312 851 7,174 0 0 5,702 1,768 10,086 0 7,174 112,980 111,905 (260) 5,024 2,566 1,039 1,595 0 0 8,966 0 2,907 0 7,000 (260) 5,024 1,625 1,039 4,602 463 0 1,201 0 4,670 530 7,000 111,736 (260) 5,024 2,759 1,084 1,650 0 0 2,638 1,489 4,108 480 7,000 120,457 (260) 4,427 3,717 1,139 2,405 0 0 4,513 2,108 3,597 0 7,000 130,267 (260) 4,018 3,231 1,196 2,160 0 0 0 0 2,460 0 7,000 135,853 138,624 (260) 4,041 4,051 1,255 2,495 0 (260) 4,182 4,116 1,318 2,580 0 0 0 0 0 0 2,280 2,188 0 0 7,000 7,000 TOTAL FINANCIAL RESOURCES OPERATING EXPENSES SUPPLY PURCHASES SURPLUS ENERGY COST PA -GREEN POWER PURCHASES DEBT SERVICES: CALAVERAS SUPPLY FUNDED ALTERNATIVE RESOUR( SUPPLY RESOURCE, OTHER ADMIN ALLOCATED CHARGES: COST PLAN CHARGES & OTHER UTILITIES ADMINISTRATION SUB -TOTAL SUPPLY DISTRIBUTION OPERATIONS & MAINT, OTHER ADMIN PUBLIC BENEFITS PROGRAMS CUSTOMER DESIGN & CONNECTION CIP SYSTEM IMPROVEMENT (CIP) STREET LIGHT, TRAFFIC SIGNAL O&M STREET LIGHT, TRAFFIC SIGNAL CIP COMMUNICATIONS O&M & CIP ALLOCATED CHARGES: COST PLAN CHARGES & OTHER UTILITIES ADMINISTRATION SUB -TOTAL DISTRIBUTION TRANSFERS: GENERAL FUND TRANSFER RENT OTHER TRANSFERS 148,043 141,817 137,799 137,709 149,102 150,072 156,715 159,749 E X P E N s E s 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 71,127 3,305 611 8,086 1 2,062 172 240 85,603 10,753 3,409 2,320 7,504 709 0 308 3,730 2,060 30,796 9,268 3,253 6,281 68,126 1,632 1,039 7,759 2,050 2,946 345 246 84,143 12,496 3,131 2,010 6,315 809 100 435 3,036 2,397 30,729 11,120 3,498 692 63,030 1,269 1,039 7,720 4,665 2,331 345 246 80,645 12,496 3,631 2,000 6,362 809 563 435 3,036 2,397 31,729 11,120 3,498 692 64,030 1,967 1,080 8,849 2,165 2,342 356 247 81,037 12,558 3,576 2,100 8,070 809 800 440 3,066 2,406 33,826 11,530 3,498 819 71,068 2,623 1,134 8,855 2,571 2,365 360 249 89,225 12,684 3,338 2,200 10,645 818 800 448 3,097 2,430 36,459 12,065 3,533 819 69,971 1,939 1,191 8,987 2,781 2,389 363 252 87,873 12,811 3,610 2,300 8,912 826 800 456 3,128 2,454 35,297 12,493 3,568 819 70,856 2,318 1,250 9,076 3,294 2,413 367 254 89,828 12,939 3,765 2,400 9,925 834 800 465 3,159 2,479 36,765 12,877 3,604 819 76,396 2,426 1,313 9,079 4,011 2,437 370 257 96,288 13,068 3,841 2,450 9,425 842 800 473 3,191 2,504 36,594 13,311 3,640 819 TOTAL OPERATING EXPENSES 135,200 130,182 127,684 130,710 142,102 140,050 143,894 150,653 1/25120109:02 AM Actual Fiscal Year 2009 Adopted 2010 RESERVE FUNDING: PLANT REPLACEMENT SUPPLY RSR DISTRIBUTION RSR P.B. RESERVE CALAVERAS INTEREST TOTAL RESERVE FUNDING CVP CUSTOMER 0&M FUNDING RECONCILE TO SAP & OTHER (2:057) 0 0 2,171 4,224 4,336 7,306 1,202 TOTAL REVENUE REQUIREMENT 148,043 0 0 2,054 0 2,581 4,636 7,000 0 Projected 2010 0 0 3,115 0 0 3,115 7,000 0 Projected 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 0 0 0 0 0 0 6,999 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7,000 0 1,600 1,422 0 0 3,022 7,000 0! 0 0 0 5,563 1,070 259 1,026 0 0 0 0 5,822 2,096 7,000 7,000 0 0 141,817 137,799 137,709 149,102 150,072 156,715 159,748 R E s E R V E s RESERVES BALANCES PLANT REPLACEMENT DISTRIBUTION RSR SUPPLY RSR CALAVERAS P.B. RESERVE BALANCE 49 TOTAL RESERVES BALANCE 50 51 33,800 Short Term Risk Assessment Value -Supply RSR Short Term Risk Assessment Value- Distribution R: Long Term Rate Stabilization Guidelines Supply RSR Minimum Supply RSR Maximum Distribution RSR Minimum Distribution RSR Maximum 1,000 6,342 41,442 64,535 4,280 4,588 35,455 70,910 6,654 16,636 1,000 8,396 32,641 64,209 4,280 110,526 1,000 9,457 40,241 59,865 3,750 114,313, 1,000 7,967 37,603 55,757 3,270 105,598 1,000 5,859 33,090 52,160 3,270 95,381 1,000 7,282 34,690 49,700 3,270 95,942 99484 - 99,392 1,000 7,541 , 40,253 47,420 3,270 1,000 8,566 41,323 45,232 3,270 33,600 5,784 34,013 68,026 6,450 12,901 33,600 5,784 34,013 68,026 6,389 12,778 26,700 6,934 32,015 64,030 6,355 12,710 35,534 71,068 6,694 13,387 34,986 69,971 7,131 14,262 35,428 38,198 70,856 76,396 7,140 7,274 14,279 14,547 1/25/20109:02 AM ATTACHMENT D MEMORANDUM 3 TO: UTILITIES ADVISORY COMMISSION FROM: UTILITIES DEPARTMENT DATE: MARCH 9, 2010 SUBJECT: LONG TERM FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS AND REVENUE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE WASTEWATER COLLECTION FUND This report is for discussion purposes only. No action is required. OVERVIEW This report discusses the projected costs and revenue requirements for the Wastewater Collection Fund for the next five years starting Fiscal Year (FY) 2011 through FY 2015. Staff assessed cost trends and projections, short-term assessment of risks, and existing reserve guidelines and determined the revenue requirements for the Wastewater Collection Fund for the next five years. Based on this analysis, staff's preliminary recommendation is for no revenue adjustment for FY 2011. Based on projections as of December 2009, the expected revenue adjustment for the remaining four years of the forecast horizon is an annual increase of 5% per year. These rate adjustments would achieve the goals of ensuring that the balance of the Wastewater Rate Stabilization Reserve (WW RSR) can cover the short-term risk assessment value and are between the Council -approved minimum and maximum guideline levels for the long-term forecast horizon. Despite the preliminary recommendation for no overall revenue adjustment, staff may still propose rate structure changes that could impact customers, if warranted by the Cost of Service studies that are underway and in line with other City policy objectives. BACKGROUND The revenue requirements and resulting rate adjustment targets depend on a number of components including revenue projections, treatment costs, collection system operating and capital improvement program (CIP) expenses, prudent rate stabilization and emergency plant replacement reserves, and debt service payments. Any change in one or more of these components can trigger a change, up or down, to the revenue requirement. During the budget process, staff forecasts load, revenues and expenses to quantify the annual revenue requirement. • Page 1 of 4 DISCUSSION Cost Drivers Total expenses for the Wastewater Collection Fund are projected to increase from their budgeted levels of $16.4 million in FY 2010 to $17.9 million in FY 2015, a 2.9% average annual increase as shown in Table 1 below. Table 1 Five -Year Financial Plan - Pro'ected Costs Actual Adopted Protected Protected Fiscal Year 2009 2010 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 E X P E N s E s 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 OPERATING EXPENSES TREATMENT CUSTOMER DESIGN & CONN. (cIP) SYSTEM IMPROVEMENT (CIP) CUSTOMER SERVICES OPERATIONS ALLOCATED CHARGES: COST PLAN CHARGES & OTHER UTILITIES ADMINISTRATION TOTAL MAJOR ACTIVITIES 6,131 1,121 3,750 301 2,460 (171) 749 7,933 961 2,985 289 2,529 655 689 7,933 961 2,985 289 2,529 655 689 7,588 890 3,270 289 2,561 664 691 7,892 905 3,366 292 2,587 670 698 8,207 920 3,467 295 2,613 677 705 8,536 978 3,571 298 2,639 684 712 8,877 1,008 3,678 301 2,665 691 720 14,342 16,041 16,041 15,954 16,410 16,884 17,418 17,939 DEBT SERVICE TRANSFERS: OPERATING TRANSFERS OUT RENT SUB -TOTAL TRANSFER 129 712 109 821 129 97 115 211 129 97 115 211 129 565 115 679 129 565 116 680 129 565 117 682 129 565 118 683 129 565 119 684 TOTAL OPERATING EXPENSES 15,291 16,381 16,381 16,762 17,219 17,695 18,229 18,752 Treatment costs account for almost half of the total costs, or $7.9 million in FY 2010 and are projected to increase by 2.4% per year reaching $8.9 million in FY 2015. Operations cost is projected to increase by 1.0% annually. Annual CIP costs are projected to increase at a higher rate of 3.8% annually based on planned project schedules as the Wastewater Collection Utility continues its system replacement projects. Other cost items such as debt service payments and rent do not constitute a major expense category for the Wastewater Collection Fund and are assumed to either remain flat (debt service payments) or increase by 1.0% annually (rent). Financial Resources, Required Reserve Levels and Revenue Requirements Based on the City's Annual Financial Report (CAFR) for FY 2009, the WW-RSR ended the fiscal year with a balance of $6.0 million. This is below the maximum reserve guideline level of $6.9, and above both the minimum reserve guideline level of $2.8 million and the annual risk assessment value of $1.8 million. Following a 5% rate increase implemented on July 1, 2009, as of the end of FY 2010, the balance of the WW-RSR is projected to be $5.6 million, between the minimum and maximum guideline levels. Due to the high ending reserve levels expected for FY 2010, staff recommends no change in the system average retail rate in FY 2011. Based on the five-year financial plan, rate projections for the next four years of the forecast horizon show annual increases of 5% for the next four years starting in FY 2012. Page 2 of 4 Table 2 presents the projected financial resources available to the Wastewater Collection Fund, revenue requirements, required rate adjustments and WW-RSR levels. Without a rate adjustment over the five-year planning horizon, the WW-RSR would have a balance lower than minimum guideline level starting in FY 2013. With the projected rate adjustments, the Wastewater Collection Fund remains financially viable throughout the forecast horizon. Table 2 Revenue Re uirements and Rate Ad'ustment Scenarios A B' Actual Adopted 2009 2010 WITHOUT RATE ADJUSTMENTS Total Sources of Funds Total Uses of Funds Into/(Out of) Reserves ST Risk Assessed Value LT Minimum Guideline LT Maximum Guideline 1,698 2,752 6,881 REQUIRED RATE ADJUSTMENTS % Change in System Ave Change in Retail Sales Ri Ending RSR 0.0% 6,023 1,710 2,156 4,311 5.0% 684 4,265 1,710 2,156 4,311 5.0% 684 5,629 1,815 2,156 4,311 0.0% 4,898 2,263 4,527 5.0% 719 4,326 2,377 4,753 5.0% 754 4,037 2,495 4,991 2,620 5,241 Customer Bill Impact There will be no change on an average residential customer's monthly utility bill in FY 2011 due to revenue requirements identified in this report unless structural rate changes are proposed or cost shifts between rate classes are proposed based on the Cost of Service study that is underway. Rate Comparison with Neighboring Cities The City currently has lower wastewater costs than two neighboring cities as shown in Table 3 below. Monthly bills shown in the table are based on the most recently posted rates for each jurisdiction. Table 3 Wastewater Utility Residential Benchmark Comparison Current (as of January 1, 2010) Page 3 of 4 The City's current relative position with respect to neighboring cities may change in the future depending on future financial decisions by all cities compared here. ATTACHMENT Five -Year Financial Projections for the Wastewater Fund PREPARED BY: ERIC KENISTON, Associate Resource Planner IPEK CONNOLLY, Senior Resource Planner REVIEWED BY: RATCHYE sistant Director, Resource Management DEPARTMENT HEAD: VALERIEVO. Director of Utilities Page 4 of 4 Fiscal Year' Actual 2009 , Adopted 2010 1 Projected ? 2010 Projected 2011 2012 ATTACHMENT 2013 A 2014 1 2015 % 1•Atlr3E iN RETAIL4601 1 ". .. O 0% 54% ' ' .: 5.0% ' 010°/ 5.O% 9.0 i - ,5.0%1 5.0% 2,: WASTEWATER REVENUE I 1 3 REVENUE: 13,762 13,687 13,687 14,371 14,371 15,090 15,844 1 16,637 4 RATE ADJUSTMENT 0 684 684 0 719 754 792 1 832 PRORATION IMPACT j 0 (29) (29)1 0 (30) (31) (33)1 (35) V $'.. TOTAL ADJUSTED REVENUE 1 13,762 i 14,343 1 14,343 14,371 15,060 15,813 16,604 17,434 E•,; 7; DISCOUNTS/UNCOLLECT. (18) (15) (15) (15) (15) (15) (15)1 (15) N ' b`' INTEREST 805 552 552 552 469 465 474 495 9 tO 10 CONNECTION AND CAPACITY FEES OTHER/TRANSFERS IN i 601 257 721 387 721 387 730 393 740 393 750 393 761 771 393 393 11 FROM RESERVES: RATE STABILIZATION i 4 393 393 731 572 289 13 0 13 "OTAI. FINAN L 18 ItcEs 15,410 . 16,381 16,38.1 16,762 .. ...17,219.,.:...17,69ix, 18,229 19,08 14 OPERATING EXPENSES 15 TREATMENT i 6,131 7,933 7,933 7,588 7,892 8,207 8,536 8,877 16 CUSTOMER DESIGN & CONN. (CIP) i 1,121 961 961 890 905 920 978 j 1,008 E 17 SYSTEM IMPROVEMENT (CIP) 3,750 2,985 2,985 3,270 3,366 3,467 3,571 j 3,678 X 18 CUSTOMER SERVICES 301 289 289 289 292 295 298 301 P 19 OPERATIONS 2,460 2,529 2,529 2,561 2,587 2,613 2,639 2,665 20 ALLOCATED CHARGES: E 21 COST PLAN CHARGES & OTHER (171) 655 655 664 670 677 684 691 N 22 UTILITIES ADMINISTRATION 749 689 689 691 698 705 712 720 S 23 24 TOTAL MAJOR ACTIVITIES 1 14,342 16,041 16,041 15,954 16,410 16,884 17,418 17,939 DEBT SERVICE 129 129 129 129 129 129 129 129 E 25 TRANSFERS: S 26 OPERATING TRANSFERS OUT 712 97 97 565 565 565 565 565 27 RENT 1 109 115 115 115 116 117 118 119 28 SUB -TOTAL TRANSFER 821 211 211 679 680 682 683 684 29 TOTAL OPERATING EXPENSES 1 15,291 16,381 16,381 16,762 17,219 17,695 18,229 18,752 30 RESERVE ADDITIONS: 31 PLANT REPLACEMENT 119 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 32 RATE STABILIZATION 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 326 33 TOTAL RESERVE ADDITIONS: 119 0 0 0 0 0 0 I 326 34 TOTAL REVENUE REQUIREMENT 15,410 16,381 16,381 16,762 17,219 17,695 18,229 19,078 35 RESERVES BALANCES R 36 PLANT REPLACEMENT 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 E 37 RATE STABILIZATION 6,023 4,265 5,629 4,898 4,326 4,037 4,024 4,349 S 38 r ,, E 39 1,8,15 R 40 41 Short Term Risk Assessment Value 1,698 1,710 1,710 V 42 Long Term Rate Stabilization Guidelines E 43 RSR Minimum 1 2,752 2,156 2,156 2,156 2,263 2,377 2,495 2,620 S 44 RSR Maximum I 6,881 4,311 4,311 4,311 4,527 4,753 4,991 5,241 45 ATTACHMENT E MEMORANDUM TO: UTILITIES ADVISORY COMMISSION FROM: UTILITIES DEPARTMENT DATE: MARCH 9, 2010 SUBJECT: UPDATED LONG TERM FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS AND REVENUE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE WATER FUND This report is for discussion purposes only. No action is required. BACKGROUND Staff presented long term financial projections and revenue requirements for the Water Fund for the next five years to the UAC at its February 2010 meeting. At that time, staff presented a preliminary rate increase for FY 2011 of 5% despite having projected reserve levels in excess of the maximum guideline level due to the fact that wholesale water costs were projected to rise in the future and the desire to minimize future rate increases. The UAC requested staff develop a no revenue adjustment scenario for FY 2011 as an alternative for consideration. Staff also received updated wholesale water supply cost projections from San Francisco Public Utilities Commission since the February 2010 UAC meeting. The information presented in this report incorporates this update to the water supply purchase costs. DISCUSSION Based on the updated water supply cost projections, staff's preliminary recommendation is for no revenue adjustment for FY 2011 for the Water Fund. The expected revenue adjustment for the remaining four years of the forecast horizon are annual increases of 7%, 7%, 8% and 8% for the next four years starting in FY 2012. These rate adjustments would achieve the goals of ensuring that the balance of the Water Rate Stabilization Reserve (W-RSR) can cover the short-term risk assessment value and are between the Council -approved minimum and maximum guideline levels for the long-term forecast horizon. Despite the preliminary recommendation for no overall revenue adjustment, staff may still propose rate structure changes that could impact customers, if warranted by the Cost of Service studies that are underway and in line with other City policy objectives. Page 1 of 3 The tables below and the attached financial forecast have been updated with the new wholesale water supply cost projections. Cost Drivers Total expenses for the Water Fund are projected to increase from their budgeted levels of $50.7 million in FY 2010 to $57.0 million in FY 2015 as shown in Table 1 below. Table 1 Five -Year Financial Plan - Projected Costs (in $thousands) Actual Adopted Projected Projected Fiscal Year 2009 2010 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 E X P E N s E s 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 OPERATING EXPENSES PURCHASES CUSTOMER DESIGN & CONN. (CIP) SYSTEM IMPROVEMENT(CIP) - Nonbond SYSTEM IMPROVEMENT(CIP) - Bond OPERATIONS, & MAINT, OTHER ADMIN. ALLOCATED CHARGES: COST PLAN CHARGES & OTHER UTILITIES ADMINISTRATION 8,443 343 6,562 8,200 6,203 507 1,123 10,354 400 4,514 22,500 7,385 1,106 1,346 10,354 400 4,714 22,500 7,460 1,106 1,346 11,751 410 4,938 3,500 7,569 1,134 1,350 13,091 420 5,059 0 7,644 1,146 1,363 16,907 430 5,182 0 7,721 1,157 1,377 17,783 440 4,563 8,000 7,798 1,169 1,391 20,013 450 4,656 16,000 7,876 1,180 1,405 10 TOTAL MAJOR ACTIVITIES 31,380 47,604 47,879 30,652 28,724 32,774 41,144 51,581 11 12 13 14 15 16 DEBT SERVICE TRANSFERS: GENERAL FUND TRANSFER RENT OTHER TRANSFER SUB -TOTAL TRANSFER 776 2,667 1,919 987 5,573 775 0 2,107 258 2,365 5,295 0 2,107 258 2,365 2,373 0 2,107 223 2,331 2,734 0 2,128 225 2,354 2,741 0 2,150 228 2,377 2,753 0 2,171 230 2,401 2,762 0 2,193 232 2,425 17 TOTAL OPERATING EXPENSES 37,730 50,744 55,539 35,355 33,811 37,892 46,297 56,767 Financial Resources, Required Reserve Levels and Revenue Requirements Based on the City's Audited Financial Report (CAFR) for FY 2009, the W-RSR ended the fiscal year with a balance of $5.4 million. This is slightly above the minimum reserve guideline level of $5.3 million and well above the annual risk assessment value of $3.5 million. The balance of the W-RSR is projected to be $10.3 million at the end FY 2010. While this is slightly above the maximum reserve guidelines of $8.0 million, staff recommends no revenue adjustment for FY 2011 and then annual rate adjustments of 7% for FY 2012 and FY 2013 followed by increases of 8% per year in FY 2014 and FY 2015 in order to achieve a gradual increase of revenue to fund the expected operating expenses facing the Water Fund. Table 2 presents the updated projected financial resources available to the Water Fund, revenue requirements, required rate adjustments and W-RSR levels. Without a rate adjustment, the W- RSR would have a balance much lower than minimum guideline levels starting in FY 2013. With the projected rate adjustments, the Water Fund remains financially viable throughout the forecast horizon. Page 2 of 3 Table 2 Updated Five -Year Financial Plan - Projected Financial Resources and Revenue Requirements 1 WITHOUT RATE ADJUSTMENTS Fiscal Year Actual 2009 Adopted 2010 Projected 2010 Projected 2011 2012 31,069 34,976 (3,907) 30,824 38,199 (7,374) 38,944 48,078 (9,134) 47,033 57,997 (10,964) 2013 2014 2015 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Total Sources of Funds Total Uses of Funds Into/(Out of) Reserves Ending RSR RSR RESERVE GUIDELINES 29,474 37,780 (8,306) 5,400 66,026 50,819 15,207 14,089 66,297 55,539 10,757 10,282 34,673 35,657 (985) 9,297 5,391 (1,984) (11,117) (22,081) ST Risk Assessed Value LT Minimum Guideline LT Maximum Guideline 3,541 5,303 13,258 3,765 4,330 8,660 3,765 4,330 8,660 4,168 4,300 8,600 4,671 9,342 5,003 10,007 5,409 10,818 5,847 11,695 REQUIRED RATE ADJUSTMENTS % Change in System Average I Change in Retail Sales Revenu Ending RSR 8.0% 1,981 5,400 5.0% 1,375 14,089 5.0% 1,375 10,282 0.0% 9,599 7.0% 2,037 8,952 7.0% 2,182 6,348 8.0% 2,671 6,485 8.0% 2,888 7,609 ATTACHMENT A. Updated Five -Year Financial Projections for the Water Fund PREPARED BY: REVIEWED BY: DEPARTMENT HEAD: ERIC KENISTON, Associate Resource Planner IPEK CONNOLLY, Senior Resource Planner ttit E RATCHYE sistant Director, Resource Management VALERIFYO. i 1NG Director of Utilities Page 3 of 3 Fiscal Year v Actual 2009 - Adopted 2010 Projected 2010 Projected 2011 2012 2013 A0% TTAC8Hb%e 2014 - MENT'8.0% 2015 1 ',CHANGE IM, 0iiiL TE $,1i% s0% S 0% 0.0% 7 > O% 7. > 2, SYSTEM AVERAGE RATE ($/CCF) 4.96 5.21 5.21 5.21 5.57 5.96 6.44 6.95 3,,, SALES UNITS (CCFs) 5,395 5,543 5,543 5,504 5,588 5,594 5,600 5,605 4 WATER UTILITY REVENUE , 5 SALES REVENUE: 24,757 27,493 27,494 28,666 29,104 31,174 33,388 36,095 R 6 RATE ADJUSTMENT 1,981 1,375 1,375 0 2,037 2,182 2,671 2,888 7" PRORATION IMPACT (83) (57) (57) 0 (85) (91) (111) (120) 8 . TOTAL ADJUSTED SALES 26,655 28,810 28,811 28,666 31,057 33,265 35,948 38,862 9 UNMETERED SALES/OTHER (127) 138 138 138 138 138 138 138 10 INTEREST 1,788 1,265 1,265 1,265 853 757 1,206 1,737 M 11 OTHER REVENUE 275 131 334 337 341 344 8,348 16,351 CONNECTION FEES 833 682 749 767 776 785 795 804 93 FROM RESERVES: 14 RATE STABILIZATION 7,711 0 0 683 647 2,604 0 0 CIP BOND PROCEEDS 0 35,000 35,000 3,500 0 0 0 0 1 ' OTAL CI ► , (RESOURCE . 37,135: 66,026 ,.. 66,297 ;35,355 33,811 37,892' 46,434 57,891 OPERATING EXPENSES PURCHASES 8,443 10,354 10,354 11,751 13,091 16,907 17,783 20,013 CUSTOMER DESIGN & CONN. (CIP) 343 400 400 410 420 430 440 450 SYSTEM IMPROVEMENT(CIP)- Nonbond 6,562 4,514 4,714 4,938 5,059 5,182 4,563 4,656 SYSTEM IMPROVEMENT(CIP) - Bond 8,200 22,500 22,500 3,500 0 0 8,000 16,000 OPERATIONS, & MAINT, OTHER ADMIN. 6,203 7,385 7,460 7,569 7,644 7,721 7,798 7,876 ALLOCATED CHARGES: COST PLAN CHARGES & OTHER 507 1,106 1,106 1,134 1,146 1,157 1,169 1,180 UTILITIES ADMINISTRATION 1,123 1,346 1,346 1,350 1,363 1,377 1,391 1,405 TOTAL MAJOR ACTIVITIES 31,380 47,604 47,879 30,652 28,724 32,774 41,144 51,581 DEBT SERVICE 776 775 5,295 2,373 2,734 2,741 2,753 2,762 TRANSFERS: GENERAL FUND TRANSFER 2,667 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 RENT 1,919 2,107 2,107 2,107 2,128 2,150 2,171 2,193 OTHER TRANSFER 987 258 258 223 225 228 230 232 SUB -TOTAL TRANSFER 5,573 2,365 2,365 Z331 2,354 2,377 2,401 2,425 34 RESERVE ADDITIONS: 35 PLANT REPLACEMENT (595) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 36 RATE STABILIZATION 0 10,982 4,882 0 0 0 137 1,124 37 DEBT SERVICE RESERVE 0 4,300 5,875 0 0 0 0 0 38 TOTAL RESERVE ADDITIONS: (595) 15,282 10,757 0 0 0 137 1,124 39 TOTAL REVENUE REQUIREMENT 37,135 66,026 66,297 35,355 33,811 37,892 46,434 57,891 40 RESERVES BALANCES 41 PLANT REPLACEMENT 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 R 42 RATE STABILIZATION 5,400 14,089 10,282 9,599 8,952 6,348 6,485 7,609 E 43 CIP DEBT SERVICE 780 5,080 6,655 3,155 3,155 3,155 3,155 3,155 S 44 �y z t 0 VW 1,1 �... E 45 R 46 Short Term Risk Assessment Value 3,594 3,765 3,765 4,168 V 47 E 48 Long Term Rate Stabilization Guidelines S 49 RSR Minimum 50 RSR Maximum 5,303 13,258 4,330 8,660 4,330 8,660 4,300 8,600 4,671 9,342 5,003 10,007 5,409 10,818 5,847 11,695 51