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HomeMy WebLinkAbout1999-05-24 City Council (11)City of Palo Alto City Manager’s Report 6 TO:HONORABLE CITY COUNCIL FROM:CITY MANAGER DEPARTMENT: PLANNING DATE:MAY 24, 1999 CMR:260:99 SUBJECT:REQUEST FOR COUNCIL DIRECTION ON PALO ALTO SHUTTLE STUDY SHORT-TERM SERVICE ALTERNATIVES AND LONG RANGE PLANNING STRATEGY REPORT IN BRIEF This report provides the City Council with a status report on the work completed to date on the Local Shuttle Study project. The project is at a point where short-term service alternatives and a long-range planning Strategy have been identified, as well as analysis of service costs and funding options for a shuttle system. These issues were presented to the public at a community workshop on April 10 and were discussed by the Planning Commission at its April 28 meeting. See the attached Planning Commission staff report (Attachment), which includes consultant Working Paper No. 2 (Funding Analysis) and Working Paper No. 3 (Service Alternatives). Subsequent to the Planning Commission meeting, additional analysis of service costs and ridership have been prepared and are included with this report. Staff is bringing this interim report forward at this time to proode Council with the opportunity to review and comment on the fmdings, and general direction of the study. CMR:260:99 Page 1 of 4 RECOMMENDATION Council is requested to provide feedback and direction on the following key planning issues: Service Planning Goals and Objectives - Are the proposed service planning goals appropriate and complete? Scale of the Short Term Service Plan - Does the short-term service plan strike the right balance between coverage-oriented vs. productvity-ofiented routes? Are the right destinations and areas of the city covered? Are there deficiencies in service coverage that need to be addressed? Operating Parameters - Are the proposed hours of operation and service frequencies appropriate? What trade offs between service frequency and hours of operation would be acceptable to achieve a start-up service that comes within the program start-up budget? Priorities - Which routes or route segments should receive priority for implementation? Fares and Long Term Funding Options - Does Council wish staff to pursue the proposed strategies for sustaining funding for the shuttle program, or any other potential funding mechanisms? With the input received from Council, staff will fully develop and refme the recommended alternative in the Draft Shuttle Plan and craft a staff recommendation for implementation, for review by the Planning Commission and Council in June and July, respectively. PROJECT DESCRIPTION The 1998-2010 Comprehensive Plan includes as a primary transportation policy "to provide local transit in Palo Alto," and further calls for a "jitney bus system similar to Stanford’s Marguerite Shuttle." In October 1998, the City contracted with NelsonkNygaard Consulting Associates to develop a plan for a community-based shuttle service which would have the characteristics of a Marguerite-type service: smaller, user friendly vehicles, frequent service, and a locally managed system that could be flexible in responding to community needs. Through a study process that has included public workshops, meetings with community .stakeholder groups, and input from staff and a Project Advisory Committee, a short-term alternative for shuttle serviceg and a longer-range strategy for improved transit services in the community have been developed. The short-range plan would allow Palo Alto to implement shuttle services in the immediate future, without duplicating or requiring changes to existing VTA and Samtrans routes. The short-range plan identified five potential shuttle routes as described in Map 5 of Working Paper No. 3: (1) Embarcadero/Bayshore Shuttle, (2) Citywide Circulator, (3) Improved Deer Creek Shuttle, (4) Improved San Antonio/Fabian Shuttle, and (5) Extension of the Downtown Marguerite Express. CMR:260:99 Page 2 of 4 The long-term plan is to embark upon a partnership with VTA to evaluate and adjust as appropriate VTA transit resources in Palo Alto--routes, frequencies and vehicles--to determine if they could be better deployed to meet local transit needs and goals in combination with local shuttle routes. In this regard, staff has met with Peter Cipolla, General Manager of the VTA, who has agreed to commit VTA resources to a joint CityiVTA planning project to address these issues. This joint Palo AltoiVTA interagency planning process would begin this summer with the expectation of returning to the Council and the VTA with recommendations in the Fall. As an addendum to Working Paper No. 3, Nelson~4ygaard has prepared ridership and performance projections for the five proposed short-range shuttle routes, which are provided as Attachment B. This information will be discussed during the staff.presentation at the meeting. PLANNING COMMISSION REVIEW At the April 28 Planning Commission meeting, the Commission accepted public testimony and offered comments on the service alternatives and funding issues. Following is a summary of the Commission’s comments. An excerpt of the draft minutes of the Planning Commission meeting are attached to this report. Service Planning Goals and Objectives - Commissioners’ questions related to the degree to which the planning goal of attracting passengers who would otherwise drive would actually decrease traffic congestion. Staff responded that the shuttle would be one of several strategies and programs the City to reduce dependence on the automobile, but cautioned that the implementation of the shuttle program would not result in perceptible decrease in congestion at major intersections. The Commissioners felt it was important to make it clear to the public that the shuttle would not solve congestion problems. Rather, the focus should be on providing a service that enables people to choose to get out of their cars. Commissioners Commented that the benefits of the shuttle extend beyond traffic congestion and relate to intangibles such as quality of life, community cohesiveness, community identity, etc. Staff was asked to explore whether other communities have been able to develop models that quantify such benefits, such as avoiding the personal cost of driving, savings in street maintenance, avoided costs for construction of parking, etc. Scale of the Short Term Service Plan - The Commissioners expressed support for the balance between coverage-oriented and productivity-oriented service. However, in order to build community support and acceptance, the Commissioners commented that it may be more important to focus early on routes that provide better coverage and serve a wider spectrum of the community. The Commissioners indicated it was difficult to judge the service plan without knowing projected ridership and cost per ride information. CMR:260:99 Page 3 of 4 Frequency o~- It was the consensus of the Commissioners that frequent service was critical to the success of the shuttle program. Ten to fifteen minute headways were recommended; anything longer was judged to be counter-productive. The Commissioners asked for more information about the relationship between ridership and frequency. Fares and Long Term Funding Options - The Commissioners felt that charging a fare would add complexity to implementation of the project and could pose psychological hurdles to attracting fidership. TIME LINE The draft Shuttle Plan is scheduled to be reviewed by the Planning Commission on June 30 and the City Council on July 19. ENVIRONMENTAL REVIEW The environmental review will be performed prior to Council action on the draft shuttle plan. ATTACHMENTS A. April 28, 1999 Planning Commission Staff Report, including Working Papers No. 2 and No. 3 B. Service Alternatives Ridership Analysis C. Planning Commission minutes PREPARED BY: Gayle Likens, Senior Planner DEPARTMENT HEAD: G. EDWARD Director of Community Environment EMILY~p~MLRI-~{3N- Assistant City Manager Project Advisory Committee Project mailing list Peter Cipolla, Valley Transportation Authority Susan Frank, Chamber of Commerce Chris Christofferson, Stanford University Donald Phillips, PAUSD CMR:260:99 Page 4 of 4 ATTACHMENT A PLANNING COMMISSION MEMORANDUM TO:PLANNING COMMISSION FROM: AGENDA DATE: SUBJECT: Gayle Likens DEPARTMENT:Planning April 28, 1999 Status Report on Palo Alto Shuttle Study Short-Term Service Alternatives and Long-Range Planning Strategy Recommendation At the April 28 Planning Commission meeting, staff will present a mid-point review of the major issues and findings of the study to date, and in particular, the short-term shuttle routing alternatives and long range strategy, for a local shuttle system for Palo Alto. This repoit requests that the Commission review and comment on the general direction of the study and, in particular, the service planning goals, scale of proposed short-term service plan and implementation priorities, and long range strategy to enhance transit services in Palo Alto, as described in the draft Working Paper No. 3: Short Term Routing Alternatives (Attachment D). Staff will forward the Commission’s comments to the City Council for its consideration at the May 17, 1999 meeting. After receiving Council input, the preferred service alternative will be fully developed in the draft plan, which will be forwarded to the Planning Commission and Council in June 1999 and July 1999, respectively. Background The 1998-2010 Comprehensive Plan includes, as a primary transportation policy, "to provide local transit in Palo Alto," and further calls for a "jitney bus system similar to Stanford’s Marguerite Shuttle." In 1998-99 the City Council authorized funding for a study to develop a plan to implement a shuttle system in Palo Alto that would have the characteristics of a Marguerite-type service: smaller, user-friendly vehicles, frequent service, and a locally managed system that could be flexible in responding to community needs. In October 1998, the City contracted with NelsonkNygaard Consulting Associates to develop a plan for a community-based shuttle service. The consultant’s work tasks included a needs assessment, priority setting, development of system alternatives, choice of a preferred s:\plan\pladiv\pcsrkshtll.wpd Page 1 of 9 alternative, analysis of altemative funding mechanisms, and recommendations and an action plan for the first phase of service. A Project Advisory Committee (PAC) was formed to help staff and the consultant gather input from the constituent groups represented on the committee and to review and comment on the consultant’s work at various stages of the study. The PAC consists of representatives from the Planning Conunission, neighborhood groups, school groups, business groups and the senior community. To date, Task 1 (community needs and service priorities) and Task 2 (funding opportunities) have been completed. Building upon the input received from the public at a December 1998 public workshop, subsequent meetings with stakeholder groups, and feedback from the PAC and staff, a short-term alternative for shuttle services and a longer-range strategy for improved transit services in the community have been developed. These proposals were presented at a public workshop on April 10, 1999. Approximately 30 members of the public attended the workshop. Staffis bringing these alternatives, as described in the draft Working Paper No. 3, to the Planning Commission and City Council to secure further input and direction prior to developing the preferred alternative, which is to be developed in detail in the final shuttle service plan. Comprehensive Plan Policies The impetus for this study derives from the success of the special events shuttles and the numerous policies related to transit in the 1998-2010 Comprehensive Plan Transportation Element. Comprehensive Plan Goal T-2 is "A Convenient, Efficient, Public Transit System that Provides a Viable Alternative to Driving." Among the supporting policies and programs identified in the plan are: Policy T-4 Program T- 13 Policy T-6 Policy T-8 Policy T-9 Policy T- 11 Policy T-12 Provide local transit in Palo Alto. Establish a jitney bus system similar to Stanford University’s Marguerite Shuttle. Improve public transit access to regional destinations, including those within Palo Alto. Encourage employers to develop shuttle services connecting employment areas with the multi-modal transit stations and business districts. Work towards integrating public school commuting into the local transit system. Support efforts to integrate train, bus and shuttle schedules at multi- modal transit stations to make public transit use more time-efficient. Support efforts to decrease wait times for intercity transit to a maximum of 20 minutes between 6:00 a.m. and 10 p.m. Design for a maximum wait time of 12 minutes for intra-city transit, if feasible. Existing Transit Services Palo Alto is currently served by four transit operators: Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority, VTA, (Lines 22, 24, 35, 86 and 88), San Mateo County Transit, Samtrans, (Lines s:\plan\pladiv\pcsrkshtll.wpd Page 2 of 9 50V and 50C), Dumbarton Express (DB/DB 1) and Stanford Marguerite. Existing transit services in Palo Alto range from very intense productive routes, to low ridership coverage routes. A map of existing transit routes is included as Attachment B and a summary table of service characteristics of existing bus routes is included as Attachment C. VTA Line 22, which operates at 10-15 minute headways all day, is the epitome of a high productivity route in a high density corridor. It has the highest ridership in the VTA system, which averages loads of 15-26 passengers in Palo Alto. Samtrans runs service from East Palo Alto to Stanford Shopping Center via University Avenue and Downtown. These routes in combination operate every 15 minutes and generate over 30 riders per trip. VTA Line 35, which operates along Middlefield Road from Downtown Palo Alto to Mountain View every 30 minutes, is VTA’s second most productive route in Palo Alto with up to 12 passengers per trip. VTA Lines 86 and 88, which circulate largely in low density residential neighborhoods, run every 30-60 minutes, and have limited service hours, are examples of coverage routes. They attract low ridership (peak load of 7-8 passengers) and provide a life- line type service. VTA’s 1999/00 Service Plan proposes improvements to Line 35 later this year when the Tasman Light Rail station opens in Mountain View. Instead of terminating at Foothill College, the line would be rerouted to the new Light Rail station in downtown Mountain View. VTA proposes to operate the line ever~ 15 minutes in Mountain View, but only every 30 minutes in Palo Alto. Staffhas already sent comments to VTA staffon the proposed 1999 Service Plan requesting that the 15 minute service be extended to Palo Alto, as a "rubber tire" extension of the Light Rail. Problem Statement The Comprehensive Plan transportation policies, as well as the shortcomings of the existing public transit services in Palo Alto, underscore fundamental problems with the current extent of transportation alternatives to driving, which a viable and vibrant shuttle program, in combination with improved public transit services would address, including: A lack of transit service connecting neighborhoods to commercial and community centers and schools Limited temporal and geographic coverage of shuttle services to Caltrain stations Traffic congestion on downtown streets and near schools A high level of commuting by single occupant vehicles and causing peak hour congestion on arterials Coverage versus Productivity Oriented Service A fundamental issue when designing shuttle or transit service is to define what the service is for and whom are you trying to serve. While the Comprehensive Plan gives guidance and direction, it is important for the community and policy makers to come to a consensus as to how much of the shuttle resources should be allocated to routes that provide coverage to a s:\plan\pladiv\pcsr\ahtll.wpd Page 3 of 9 large geographic area of the community, but with less frequent service, or to fewer routes with more frequent headways along high density corridors where transit can compete directly with the automobile. These two opposing views, the "Coverage" and "/ntensity" philosophies are represented in Attachment A. Finding the appropriate balance between these two transit planning strategies is a fundamental issue in this study. Initial Findings from Needs Assessment Through the input received from the COmmunity and analysis performed by NelsonkNygaard, it is clear that there is a demand for improved transit services in the community to fill in gaps in service and to serve important destinations and residential and employee target markets in the community. Key findings to date include: Improved intra-Palo Alto shuttle and transit could serve the 17,000 people who both live and work in the Palo Alto/Stanford area, of whom less than 3 percent currently commute on transit. Several key commercial districts, including the Stanford Research Park, San Antonio/Fabian corridor, Embarcadero/East Bayshore business park, have the employee bases and latent demand to support shuttle services. More frequent bus service should be provided along Middlefield Road, which acts as the primary intra-Palo Alto transit corridor, serving a variety of community destinations and trip needs. Coverage-oriented service should be provided to neighborhoods not currently served well by existing VTA service. A shuttle operating east/west along Embarcadero Road would serve a number of activity centers, including Palo Alto High, Town and Cotmtry Village and would fill a significant gap in transit service in north Palo Alto. There is a need for cross town shuttle services to serve the east/west commute patterns to both middle and high schools. Service Planning Goals Before beghming the task of identifying possible shuttle routes, the consultant worked with staff and the PAC to develop service planning goals and objectives for a shuttle system that would provide the foundation for determining where, when and for whom the shuttle routes are designed. The six planning goals and objectives that have been identified to date are: s:\plan\pladiv\pcsrkshtll.wpd Page 4 of 9 1.Attract passengers who would otherwise drive cars Provide benefits to all parts of the City Provide mobility to seniors, the disabled and others with special needs. 4. Support economic development Maximize overall ridership Encourage transit use among students as an alternative to chauffeuring by parents Provide an alternative to driving for low-income persons for whom the cost of driving may be an issue Provide an attractive alternative to driving for commuters who live along major transit corridors °Provide services to the maximum number of residents given available resources Provide frequent all day service to the densest corridors of all q(~adrants of the city Provide lifeline mobility for basic needs and quality of life Meet ADA requirements Serve key activity centers ¯Improve access to jobs ¯Provide accessto shopping °Provide services useful to visitors °Contribute to community identity and attractiveness °Allow business expansion without increased congestion 5. Foster regional cooperation TBD 6. Minimize City’s costs while ¯Minimize overall city contribution required meeting other goals ¯Maximize ridership per unit of subsidy required Long-Range Strategy The consultant initially identified several long-range service concepts for better transit in Palo Alto. These idealized concepts were developed without respect to which agency would operate the service. These route concepts included route segments that overlap existing VTA service on such streets as Louis Road, Arastradero Road, Channing Avenue, and Middlefield Road. These findings confirmed that VTA services generally operate on the appropriate corridors in Palo Alto, albeit not at the optimum frequencies. However, the findings brough~ to the fore the constraints of designing a long-range plan for shuttle services in the City, given the presence of VTA bus routes on several streets where more firequent shuttle-type services could be supported. The City could pursue shuttle routes which overlay VTA service, but these could further erode low transit ridership on the existing VTA routes, could confuse riders, and would burden the City’s program with high costs. Rather, Palo Alto shuttle services should enhance and complement public transit services, in a way that will attract more riders to all transit services in Palo Alto. The City recognizes and supports VTA’s role in providing intra- and inter-city transit for Palo Alto. As a member agency, Palo Alto’s tax dollars support VTA services and the City should receive an appropriate level of VTA services to meet the community’s needs. s:\plan\pladiv\pcsr\shtll.wpd Page 5 of 9 Consequently, staffhas concluded that the best way to provide improved transit services in Palo Alto in the longer term is to develop a partnership with VTA, to evaluate and adjust, as appropriate, VTA transit resources in Palo Alto, e.g., routes, frequencies and vehicles, to determine if they could be better deployed to meet local transit needs and goals in combination with local shuttle routes. There is a particular need to reevaluate Lines 86 and 88, which have been largely unchanged for almost 20 years, despite low ridership. Through this approach, a plan would emerge that would clearly define and assign responsibilities for bus and shuttle services provided by both agencies. In this regard, staff and two Council Members met with Peter Cipolla, VTA General Manager, earlier this month to explore opportunities for a joint City/VTA planning project to address these issues. Mr. Cipolla agreed to VTA staff participating in a joint study with the City to reevaluate Lines 86 and 88, and further offered that VTA staff could provide guidance and assistance to the City on such matters as identifying sources of grant funding for shuttles, contracting specifications, contract and service monitoring, etc. A Palo Alto- VTA interagency working group would be set up to work toward this long-range plan. Short-Range Service Plan In the interim, a short-range plan has been developed that would allow Palo Alto to implement shuttle services in the immediate future, without changes to existing VTA and Samtrans routes. This short-term plan can be pursued in parallel with the long-range planning effort discussed above. The focus of the short-range service plan has been developed and was designed with the following criteria in mind: Routes that do not duplicate or compete with existing VTA, Samtrans or Marguerite service Routes that fill in gaps in service coverage Shuttles focused in corridors that have high probability of success and ridership Routes that can be implemented independently, if and when funding becomes available. The Short-Range Plan includes five shuttle routes, as described in Working Paper No. 3. These shuttle routes could be phased in based on the consensus community priorities and as funding becomes available. In reviewing these proposals, the Commission may wish to comment on the following issues: -How do these routes address the Service Planning Goals? -Is there an appropriate balance or ratio of coverage-oriented versus intensity- oriented routes? Are the proposed shuttle routes planned to operate at the right frequencies and hours/days of operation? What routes should receive priori(y for implementation (notwithstanding funding opportunities/constraints discussed later in this report)? Are there gaps in services or destinations/activity centers/neighborhoods overlooked? sAplan\pladiv\pesrkshtll.wpd Page 6 of 9 ° 4 o Embarcadero/Bayshore Shuttle This route would be a rerouting of and replacement for the City’s new Baylands Caltrain Shuttle from the California Avenue Caltrain station to the Embarcadero/East Bayshore business park which began selwice in mid-April under the sponsorship of the Human Resources Department, in cooperation with businesses in the area. The proposed expanded Embarcadero/Bayshore shuttle would operate from the Palo Alto Caltrain station via E1 Camino Real, to Embarcadero Road, and then out to the East Bayshore business park and East Bayshore Frontage Road. In addition to commute-period Caltrain connections, this route would provide all day service to a number of activity centers, including the Art Center, Main Library, Gamble Garden Center, Palo Alto High, Town and Country Village, and the Palo Alto Medical Foundation. This route is proposed to operate every 15 minutes. New Citywide Circulator Shuttle A new shuttle operating every 15 minutes would provide coverage to key destinations between Downtown Palo Alto and south Palo Alto, including service to the Palo Alto Senior Center, Lytton Gardens, Channing House, Art Center, Main Library, Midtown, JLS, Mitchell Park, Stevenson House, Palo Alto Commons, Terman and Jewish Community Center, and the Barron Park neighborhood. Improved Deer Creek/Jordan Shuttle A Caltrain shuttle sponsored by Hewlett Packard currently operates four trips during the morning and evening commute periods. Analysis of demographics and input from Stanford Research Park employers indicate a high demand for expanded midday and lunchtime connections to the California Avenue business district. This proposed improved Deer Creek shuttle would run every 15 minutes all day weekdays between the California Avenue Caltrain station and Deer Creek. This route would be extended on selected trips in the morning and mid-afternoon to provide direct service from the College Terrace neighborhood to Jordan Middle School. Improved san Antonio/Fabian Shuttle Although local companies operate shuttles during the peak period, there is very limited hourly bus service to the Fabian/East Meadow employment areas and high density residential and commercial uses along San Antonio Road during the midday. Staff would work with local employers to supplement existing limited-service Caltrain shuttles with expanded hours of operation and connections to the San Antonio Caltrain station, and possibly San Antonio Shopping Center. Extension of the Marguerite Express The Marguerite Express, which currently runs between the Stanford Quad, Stanford Museum, and Lytton Plaza, would be extended fm’ther into the Downtown with extended hours of operation to provide better access to the downtown business district. This proposal would need to be developed further, in cooperation with Stanford University. s:~olan\pladiv\pesr~shtll.wpd Page 7 of 9 Funding The cost of the short-range route alternatives has been estimated by the consultant based on an annual cost of 5 day a week service for 13 hours a day, 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Any adjustment in the hours or days of operation and frequency of service could affect the contract operating costs. Embarcadero/Bayshore Shuttle (expansion of Baylands Shuttle)** Citywide Circulator Stanford Research Park Shuttle San Antonio/Fabian Shuttle Marguerite Express 15 30 15 30 15 30 2 1 5 3 3 2 15 30 10 (midday) $270,000 $135,000 $676,000 $406,000 $405,000 $270,000 not recommended $135,000 $31,000 * Approximatety $135,000 per bus per year ** Baylands Shuttle funded for $67,000 in 1999 The cost of implementing and sustaining an ongoing shuttle program will require a comprehensive and creative funding strategy. These issues are explored and evaluated in Working Paper No.. 2 (Attachment E). In the short term, the most likely funding scenario for a start-up phase with one shuttle route, would be to pursue Transportation Fund for Clean Air (TFCA) grant funding, "jump-start" funding from the City, and private sector contributions. NelsonkNygaard’s experience indicates that successful shuttle programs achieve continu’.mg support from the private sector. The City’s ability to secure TFCA grant funds from Caltrain or the Bay Area Air Quality Management District for shuttles that serve the Caltrain stations may influence decisions regarding which shuttle services are phased in first. Of the five proposed shuttle routes, staff believes that all but the Citywide Circulator would be eligible for some level of TFCA funding. In the longer term, the City will. need to identify a stable source of funding if the shuttle program is adopted. In addition to private sector contributions and grant funds, other taxes or fees may need to be considered, such as a parcel tax, special district tax, expansion of the transportation impact fee to cover shuttle services, utility users tax, etc. Another source of funding could come from passenger fares. This is one way to assign some of the cost of the service to the users. Typically, however, Nelson[Nygaard cautions that most shuttle services are free. They have recommended that a Palo Alto shuttle project not charge fares for several reasons: (1) the administrative complexity of charging a fare and cash handling controls, (2) some grant funding sources (such as TFCA) do not allow a fare s:\plan\pladiv\pcsflshtll.wpd Page 8 of 9 to be charged, (3) fares typically account for only 15-30 percent of operation costs, (4) establishing a fare structure normally includes discounted fares (e.g. for seniors or students), which would further reduce revenues generated, and (5) with a shuttle fare, inter-operator fare transfer agreements would need to be established with VTA and Samtrans, normally a - lengthy and complicated procedure. Given the anticipated funding constraints, it would be prudent to begin with a modest, low- cost shuttle implementation program, which is relatively easy to implement and straightforward for the public to understand and us~ It will be particularly important to carefully evaluate and define the benefits of the shuttle start-up in terms of community acceptance, total ridership, cost-effectiveness (cost per rider), reduction in roadway congestion (as measured by both number of vehicles removed and any reduction in level of service at key intersections along shuttle routes), and other performance measures; and use the lessons learned should the program be expanded. The draft Shuttle Plan, which will be forward to the Commission later this spring, will include a complete set of recommendations for long- and short-term funding of the shuttle system. ATTACIIMENTS/EXHIBITS: A. Coverage versus Intensity B. Existing Transit Services Map C. Existing Transit Service Hours and Frequencies D. Working Paper No. 3 Short Term Routing Alternatives E. Working Paper No. 2 Funding Analysis _COURTESY COPIF~: Project Advisory Committee Peter Cipolla, Valley Transportation Authority Susan Frank, Chamber of Commerce Chris Christofferson, Stanford University Prepared by: Gayle Likens, Senior Planner, Transportation Division Head Approval: ~J~eph Kott, Chief Transportation Official s:\plan\pladiv\pcsrkshtll.wpd Page 9 of 9 ATTACHMENT A ~0 ~ltratn Park, Children’sHospital.at Stanford Cen Oonohoe Channi~ ~ ~ i ,~ Cattraln Alto ATTACHMENT B ’ Airport " Alto_Municipal~olfCourse lue Stanford Park ,VeteransHospital San ShoppingCenter San AntoniTransit Town Hall Los.. Altos Fi ure 1: Existing transit in Palo Alto ATTACHMENT C o 0 0 0 0 ATTACHMENT D City of Palo Alto Transportation Division Local Shuttle Plan Working Paper #3: Short Term Routing Alternatives April, 1999 Submitted by: CITY OF PALO ALTO TRA NSPOR TA TION DIVISION LOCAL SHUTTLE PLAN DRAFT WORKING PAPER 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER 1: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...................................1-1 CHAPTER 2: ROUTING CONCEPT ANALYSIS ............................1-3 Goals from Working Paper 1 ..........................................1-3 Preliminary Conclusions .............................................1-3 Difficult Decisions ..................................................1-6 Planning Principles .................................................1-8 Conceptual Long-Term Routing Partnerships .............................1-9 CHAPTER 3. SHORT TERM ALTERNATIVES . : ..........................1-18 CHAPTER 4. EVALUATION OF ALTERNATIVES ..........................1-25 Cost Analysis .....................................................1-25 Ridership Projections ...............................................1-26 Goals Analysis ....................................................1-26 TABLE OF FIGURES Map 1 NORTH-SOUTH ROUTING CONCEPT 1 .....................................1-14 Map 2 EAST-WEST ROUTING SCENARIO 2 ......................................1-15 Map 3 SPECIAL EVENT SHUTTLE ROUTE .......................................1-16 Map 4 IMPROVED EXISTING TRANSIT 1-17 Map 5 PROPOSED SHORT TERM ROUTING OPTIONS CHAPTER 1: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This working paper follows the process of developing short term shuttle routing alternatives for possible implementation in Palo Alto over the next few years. The analysis begins wffh a set of conclusions drawn from the December public workshop as well as stakeholder outreach meetings held throughout the Shuttle Plan study. These conclusions led to the design of idealized transit routing concepts for the city, based on the assumption that a partnership could be formed between the City and other existing and potential transportation providers in the area, including VTA, Stanford, SamTrans, Caltrain and the cities of Menlo Park and East Palo Alto. Keeping these conceptual diagrams in mind as a long-term "big picture" to work toward, we then developed short-term shuttle route proposals that met all of the following planning criteria: Implementable by the City and local businesses on their own Do not compete with existing VTA, SamTrans or Marguerite services Focus on unserved or underserved areas Will generate high ridership and will be deemed "successful" Can be implemented quickly if funding is available Looking carefully at the city, there were five possible new (or improved) shuttle routes that became evident. We presented these at our April 10 public workshop and have refined them as a result. These shuttle routes include: 1. An extension of the Stanford Marguerite Downtown Express 2. A new shuttle that would run along Embarcadero Road, serving the East-of- Bayshore office parks, Main Library, Art Center, North Palo Alto neighborhoods,. Paly High, Town & Country Village, Palo Alto Medical Foundation Clinic and the downtown train station. 3. increased Caltrain shuttle service to the Research Park that would build upon the success’ of the Deer Creek Shuttle and provide new lunchtime connections to California Avenue. This service would also connect College Terrace residents to Jordan Middle School. o o Increased Caltrain shuttle service in the San Antonio Road corridor that would build upon existing efforts there and provide lunchtime connections to shopping areas. A citywide circulator route that would provide transit service to several neighborhoods for the first time and would connect a rich variety of important community facilities including the Main Library, Art Center, Senior Center, Jordan, Cubberley Center, Stevenson House, Terman Center, Gunn High School and others. NEtSONiNYGAARD CONSULTING ASSOClATES 1-1 APRIL 1999 CITY OF PALO ALTO TRANSPORTATION DIVISION LOCAL SHUTTLE PLAN DRAF-I- WORKING PAPER 3 These routes are described in detail in Chapter 3 and shown on Map 5. Each of these proposed routes is then analyzed by a variety of factors in Chapter 4. All of the routes meet the City’s draft goals, perform important community functions and are projected to generate sufficient ridership to deem them "successful." Deciding which, if any, of the routes to implement in what order will depend on how policymakers weight the various analysis factors. Once these routes are refined, we will use the guidance of Working Paper 2: Shuttle Funding Plan to develop a specific short term implementation plan. With these routes in mind we will also begin the process of working with other transit agencies toward a fully integrated local transportation system. NELSON~NYGAARD C.ONSULTING ASSOCIATES 1-2 APRIL 1999 CITY OF PALO ALTO TRANSPORTATION DIVISION LOCAL SHUTTLE PLAN DRAFT WORKING PAPER 3 CHAPTER 2: ROUTING CONCEPT ANALYSIS Unlike most suburban cities, Palo Alto is blessed in that almost all of its important community services are sited along key transit corridors. Almost without exception, all of the city’s key schools, senior facilities, shopping areas, community centers, medical centers, major employers and multimodal centers are located on dense corridors such as El Camino, Middlefield, University, Charleston, Arastradero, San Antonio, Sand Hill, California and Page Mill. Moreover, these streets also have denser residential development along them. Each of them logically provide part of the backbone for any transit services developed in Palo Alto. GOALS FROM WORKING PAPER 1 Before moving into our analysis, it is worth repeating the project’s draft goals developed for Working Paper 1: 1.Attract passengers who would otherwise drive cars. 2.Provide benefits to all parts of the city. 3.Provide mobility to seniors and the disabled. 4.Support economic development 5.Foster regional cooperation. 6.Minimize City’s costs while meeting other goals. PRELIMINARY CoNcLuSIONS FROM THE OUTREACH PROCESS The first stage of this planning process involved talking to a large variety of stakeholders throughout the community, including representatives of most neighborhood groups, the schools, senior facilities, community facilities, major employers, retail districts, Stanford, VTA and the general public. As a result of this extensive outreach process, we arrived at some preliminary conclusions for a large set of issues: 1. Continue to support improvements on VTA’s Line 22 The 22, along with its limited stop equivalent, the 300, is the workhorse of VTA’s entire bus network. It is by far the most efficient and effective of any of their Palo Alto lines. Running every ten minutes or better all day, with good service extended 24 hours, 7 days a week, the 22 offers more runs than just about any other line in the suburban Bay Area. Moreover, it provides important regional connections to Menlo Park and all the way to the far side of San Jose. NELSONINYGAARD CONSULTING ASSOCIATES 1-3 APRIL 1999 CITY OF PALO ALTO TRANSPORTATION DIVISION LOCAL SHUTTLE PLAN DRAFT WORKING PAPer 3 In Palo Alto, ridership data show that it carries more riders per bus than the 35, 86 and 88 combined - with average bus loads through the city ranging from 15 to 26 passengers, even on weekends. About 3,000 passengers ride the 22 through Palo Alto every day - the same as Stanford’s entire Marguerite system. A large number of these riders use the 22 for intra-Palo Alto trips, boarding mainly in South Palo Alto and getting off near the Research Park or at the University Avenue station. With such good service in the El Camino corridor, there is no need for the city to duplicate it. There are ways, however, for the City and VTA to improve the existing service: VTA has plans for significant capital and operating improvements to the 22 and the City should work with VTA toward these changes. Transit’s success and marketability along El Camino is limited by the unpleasant pedestrian environment there. Some sidewalks through south Palo Alto are substandard, including segments there are so narrow and so cluttered with utility poles that a person in a wheelchair could not maneuver along them. Implementing the South El Camino Real Design Workshop recommendations would strongly support increased transit use. 2. Improve VTA’s line 35 on Middlefield With so many important community services along it, it makes sense to provide frequent, all- day, seven-days-a-week service along Middlefield Road, connecting to the University Avenue train station and downtown on one end and the San Antohio Shopping Center and train station on the other end. As part of its restructuring plan to support the light rail extension into Mountain View, VTA is currently, planning to reroute the 35 from the San Antonio Station to the downtown Mountain View light rail/Caltrain station. This plan makes a great deal of sense. In essence, the 35 would become a rubber-tired Palo Alto extensi,on of the Tasman Light Rail Line. This service would connect key Palo Alto residential and employment areas with all of the employers served by the Tasman line, as well as to the restaurants and services in downtown Mountain View. It could be very successful if run with similar frequency as the light r&il line. VTA currently plans to run 35 every 15 minutes, but only in the Mountain View segment. Frequencies in Palo Alto would remain every 30 minutes. The City should work with VTA to explore the options for improving service levels in Palo Alto, including discussing ridership thresholds that would merit 15 minute service in Palo Alto. NELSONINYGAARD CONSULTING ASSOCIATES I-4 APRIL 1999 CITY OF PALO ALTO TRANSPORTATION D/V/S/ON LOCAL SHUTTLE PLAN DRAFT WORKING PAPER 3 3. Provide frequent, all-day service to the Research Park The Stanford Research Park has approximately the same population (- 30,000) as well as the same population density as Stanford University and Medical Center, and it should be able to support all-day shuttle transit. Service could run on one or two lines, each running every fifteen minutes, all day from around 6:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m. or later. No weekend service is likely necessary. Connections clearly need to be made to the California Avenue business district and train station. Ideally, ’there would also be connections downtown. Service to the Research Park is complicated by the fact that sidewalks are inadequate or nonexistent throughout much of the Park. If sidewalks are provided at all, oftentimes they are only on one side of the street. Transit service generally runs in both directions, leading to bus stops with no pathway to get to them. Many of the existing l i nes 24, 88 and express bus stops have muddy cowpaths leading to them. Beyond the bus stops, pedestrian connections to employer front doors are often lacking as well, especially among the outermost employers. Further study will be needed to determine which employment sites will best support transit and pedestrian access. Routes could be determined in partnership with companies with more robust employee transportation programs or those who are interested in contributing to the service. Improvements to transit service in the Research Park may also include adjusting the existing lines 24 and 88 to improve their frequency, connections with Caltrain and lunchtime and evening service. Caltrain, Hewlett Packard and the City may also want to increase the number of trips of the Deer Creek Shuttle which is currently limited to four trips in the morning and four trips in the evening. 4. Provide Caltrain-shuttle-like service tO office parks in the San Antonio corridor and East-of-Bayshore area, including lunchtime service These areas are less dense than the Research Park, but they still have enough employees to support peak hour Caltrain shuttle service plus lunchtime connections to commercial areas. The San Antonio Road corridor currently has some public transit service, but additional runs can be provided to in-fill the limited schedule and provide better timed connections with Caltrain. 5. Some coverage oriented service should be provided Low density, single family residential areas will require higher subsidy per passenger and will not generate as much ridership as denser corridors. It will be interesting to explore how service in these corridors might be brought together to provide more service in, for example, Midtown and/or the Charleston/Arastradero corridors. NELSONINYGAARD CONSUL TING ASSOCIA TE$ 1-5 APRIL 1999 CITY OF PAtO ALTO TRANSPORTATION DIVISION LOCAL SHUTTLE PLAN DRAFT WORKING PAPER 3 6. Provide good service in the Charleston/Arastradero corridor Residential density and key community services suggest that this corridor should be a focus for service, perhaps similar to that offered on Middlefield. 7. Make key school connections In order to overcome serious trip-to-school barriers, service scenarios should arrange to make at least two morning and two afternoon trips, in the following corridors: College Terrace and Escondido Village to Jordan Barron Park’and Ventura to JLS South Palo Alto neighborhoods to Gunn Outer Embarcadero area neighborhoods to Paly 8. Partner with VTA to improve lines 86 and 88 During the outreach process it became clear that the public is not satisfied with VTA’s current coverage-oriented routes, the 86 and 88. They have three primary concerns: 1)The existing full-size, diesel powered vehicles produce too much noise, vibration and pollution for the narrow residential streets they serve. 2)They are too infrequent to be useful except to those who have no other travel option. 3)They believe the buses run with no passengers. According to VTA’s ridecheck data, the public’s perception that some of their big buses run around town empty is partly correct. The 88 and 86 do not perform very well, with maximum average loads of five to eight passengers and many long stretches where few if any passengers ever board. The City should partner with VTA to do a thorough study of its coverage-oriented routes and explore how they might be restructured to increase ridership. The study should explore operational models, routing, scheduling and funding partnerships. DIFFICULT DECISIONS Several difficult decisions remain to be grappled with. These issues will be made as routing alternatives are developed. They include: Should service in the downtown area use Lytton, Hamilton - or University itself? Because of higher density on Lytton and the presence of the Senior Center, we recommend concentrating service on Lytton. Specifically, we recommend running all buses from the train station up Lytton, then across Webster to Channing, then NELSON~NYGAARD CONSUL TING A$$OCIA TE$1-6 APRIL 1999 CITY OF PALO ALTO TRA NSPOR TA TION DIVISION lOCAL SHUTTLE PLAN DI~AFT WORKING PAPER 3 co.ntinuing on.Midd!efield or Channing. This corridor provides the best service to the densest areas, and concentrating all service on it allows for good transfer possibilities. It may be possible for some routes to use Lytton and some to use Hamilton, but all buses heading in a similar direction should use the same downtown street so that passengers may have a choice of multiplebuses to reach destinations in adjacent neighborhoods. Using existing services as an example, it is important for both the 35 and the 86 to use the same downtown bus stops, so that someone heading to the Main Library could use whichever bus came first. It is also very important that buses use the same street in both directions - that is, they should not use Lytton in one direction and Hamilton in another. Keeping both directions on the same street dramatically helps improve the clarity of the system. Passengers know that the bus stop for their return trip is just across the street from where they got off, rather than two blocks away. Although using University Avenue would provide "front door" service to more downtown destinations, existing congestion on the street makes travel there slower than Lytt. on or Hamilton. Moreover, adding bus stops to University would require major reconstruction of the street corners and may require the removal of parking spaces. Barron Park is a particular challenge, since its streets are narrow, lack sidewalks and dead end. Although there is no obvious path through Barron Park, it is one of the city’s denser residential neighborhoods and it could support fair ridership, particularly to JLS Middle School. One of the most difficult issues facing Barron Park is the fact that most of the neighborhood already enjoys excellent transit accessibility along El Camino and, to a lesser extent, Arastraderc~. With high density and important destinations along both of these streets, it may be difficult to deviate main-line transit routes off of them and into Barron Park. How should through service to Stanford Shopping Center, Medical Center and University be provided? Should the existing Marguerite Downtown Express.simply be expanded? Having the train station as a midpoint along a transit line makes timed transfers very difficult if not impossible. Passengers could transfer to the Marguerite at the station in order to get to the Shopping Center, but this might be inconvenient, and it may cause capacity problems for the Marguerite. There are facility complications at the University Avenue station. There is room to develop bus stops at the Alma/Lytton side, and in the long run there is plenty of room to expand the main bus bay area toward Quarry/El Camino. This issue needs to be resolved. NELSONINYGAARD CONSULTING ASSOCIATES 1-7 APRIL 1999 CITY OF PALO ALTO TRA NSPOR TA TION DIVISION LOCAL SHUTTLE PLAN DRAFT WORKING PAPEr 3 o There is a desire to accommodate various cross-town, east-west trips, but there are few dense destinations at the.east side of town to anchor frequent transit service there. PLANNING PRINCIPLES With a solid foundation from our public outreach process, we began our next step, the development of routing alternatives. The following assumptions guided our planning efforts: o Focus service on areas of highest density while providing some coverage to all neighborhoods. ¯Avoid streets without sidewalks except those on in quiet residential areas. Streets where construction of sidewalks would be difficult or impossible - including Alma, East Bayshore, West Bayshore and Oregon Expressway- should particularly be avoided. Passengers cannot safely wait for shuttles on streets such as these. -°Do not try to compete with VTA’s existing services. Some lines, such as the 22, provide such good service that it is pointless to duplicate them. Coverage oriented routes such as the 86 and the 88 might suffer a catastrophic drop in ridership if a frequent shuttle competed against them. Instead, work with VTA and other agencies over the long run to develop a transit partnership. ¯A quarter mile is assumed to be the maximum walking distance most people will go to a bus stop. Therefore, parallel routes should be spaced roughly half a mile apart. °The City will pursue 15-minute service on Middlefield between the downtown and San Antonio train stations as part of VTA’s future service improgement programs. °While trying to meet all of the key origin-destination pairs that have some out of the stakeholder outreach process, focus on providing connections between -neighborhoods and train stations -- business districts and train stations -neighborhoods and retail districts ° Frequency of service will be an important issue. In order to fulfill the goal of getting people out of their cars, shuttles will need to run at least every fifteen minutes at peak. Atthis frequency, transit starts to become time competitive with the automobile, and it is acceptable for many riders to give up carrying a schedule with them everywhere. That is, if you show up at a bus stop without knowing the schedule, a bus will be there in an average of seven minutes - a reasonable wait for most people. °Finally, it will be important that any initial services the City provides will be a success. We do not want to propose marginal services that will result in few riders and may be accused of being "failures." Instead, we recommend starting small and building upon success. IVEL$ONINYGAARD CONSULTING A$$OCIATES 1-8 APRIL 1999 CITY OF PALO ALTO TRA NSPORTA TiON DIVISION LOCAL SHUTTLE PLAN DRAFT WORKING PAPER 3 CONCEPTUAL [_ONG-TERM ROUTING PARTNERSHIPS Before developing our short range implementation plan, we decided it was important to look at the big picture of transit in Palo Alto. At our first public workshop, we asked participants to design an ideal transit system for the city from a clean slate. We urged attendees to ignore most existing routing patterns and design something that made most sense to theml Even so, most of the attendees at the public workshop replicated many existing routes, adjusting them only slightly and in some cases improving their frequency. Indeed, most of the existing transit services in Palo Alto are well planned and achieve strong ridership. As a result of this process, we were able to develop four preliminary routing concepts that begin to work toward a subregional system that could be formed in partnership with local transit agencies, Menlo Park, Stanford, East Palo Alto, local businesses and other groups. These routing concepts are shown on the following maps. None of these concepts is a "plan." Instead, they are intended to be a startin.g point for conversations with everyone interested in transit in the Palo Alto area. Given geographic reality and fiscal constraints, none of the scenarios accomplished all of the city’s goals, but they strived to strike the best possible balance between productivity and coverage, attempting to provide some service within a quarter mile of almost all residents, while concentrating frequent service where it will be most used. It is important to note that the~City ofPalo Alto cannot implement any of th~se scenarios on its own - nor would it want to. Each concept proposes to restructure VTA’s existing lines 86 and 88 in order to improve their productivity and usefulness. These routes are entirely under VTA’s control, however, and no changes can be made to them without VTA’s concurrence. More importantl.y, transit planning is inherently about making connections and bridging barriers. The City can accomplish far more working with other agencies than it can acting alone. By sharing resources and doing joint planning with VTA, Stanford and others, the City. can help build a Subregional transit system that enjoys higher ridership, lower cost per passenger ride and excellent regional connectivity. The five short-term shuttle routes in the subsequent section all build from the long-term concepts presented below. Concept 1: North-South Service We began our analysis of long-term routing, concepts by looking at systems that focused on running service north-south through the city along key corridors such as El Camino, Waverley, Middlefield and Greer. Historically, service has generally been delivered in this manner, with the 22 serving El Camino, the 35 on Middlefield, the 86 on Louis/Greer and the canceled 84 on Waverley/Bryant. In addition, the City’s Special Event Shuttle is a variation on the north- south service theme. NELSONINYGAARD CONSULTING ASSOCIATES I-9 APRIL 1999 CITY OF PALO ALTO TRANSPORTATION DIVISION LOCAL SHUTTLE PLAN DRAFT WORKING PAPER 3 This concept assumes that the 22 stays the same and the 35 increases to 15 minute headways all day with a connection to the new light rail and Caltrain station in downtown Mount~iin View. It then restructures the 86 and 88 to provide improved north-south services in various ways. These options include: Eastern-most service (Greer/Louis corridor) Western- most service (Waverley corridor) All line~ should serve the downtown train station. Optional to extend to Stanford Shopping Center, Medical Center and University. All lines should serve ~he downtown train station. Optional to extend to Stanford Shopping Center, Medical Center and University. ¯Can connect into Midtown like Special Event shuttle ¯Should stay on Greer rather than Louis to stay more than 1/4 mite from Middlefield and serve dense housing near Bayshore. ¯Must serve Cubberley/Mitchell Park Should try to get as close as possible to dense housing near Alma, but limited due to creek and arterial crossings. Explore using closed corridor on school district property between East Meadow and Charleston. Should serve Cubberley/Mitchell Park Choice between: ¯ San Antonio train station and Shopping Center, or ¯VA Hospital and Gunn. Choice between: ° San Antonio train station and Shopping Center, or ¯VA Hospital and Gunn. The coverage-oriented routes in the Greer and Waverley corridors serve predominantly low- density residential areas. As a result, they are likely to generate only modest ridership. Depending on funding levels, they could be operated at half hour frequencies or better. Since Louis Road is almost exactly a quarter mile away from frequent transit along Middlefield Road, manypeople .living on Louis may prefer to walk to Middlefield rather than wait for a bus in front of their house. Therefore, Greer is generally a better choice than Louis since Greer serves more residents who would otherwise be beyond walking distance of transit. As in all alternatives, the Research Park would get significantly improved service with all-day connections to the California Avenue station. Specific routing in the Research Park needs more study since there is no obvious single path connecting most employers. New service would be provided on Embarcadero Road, and improved service offered in the San Antonio Road corridor. Concept 2: East-West Service This service also provides the El Camino and Middlefield "spines" of the previous alternative, but focuses on east-west routes rather than north-south. Each of the each-west segments can NELSON~NYGAARD CONSULTING ASSOCIATES 1-10 APRIL 1999 CITY OF PALO ALTO TRANSPORTATION DIVISION LOCAL SHUTTLE PLAN DRAFT WORKING PAPER 3 be operated at separate lines, pulsing in and out of several nodes, or all the service can be through-routed on one line. This alternative is especially interesting because it connects all of the city’s densest pockets, and allows very direct connections to a train station from all neighborhoods. Although it looks rather awkward on the map, it is very efficient in meeting key origin-destination pairs while providing decent coverage throughout the city. The lines are routed so as to be spaced approximately a half mile from the nearest parallel route, allowing most residents to fall within a quarter mile of the service. Concept 3: Special Event Shuttle route This alternative simply replicates the Special Event Shuttle, with the option of extending it to the San Antonio Station at the southern end of.the loop. There would not necessarily be any additional service on Middlefield, except the existing line 35. Concept 4: Improved service o~ VTA’s existing routes This alternative implements VTA routing changes as proposed in their Tasman West Light Rail Integration Plan. Specifically: ¯Reroute the 35 to run from the San Antonio Station to the Mountain View Station, and terminate it at the Stanford Shopping Center instead of the Main Quad. o Extend the 86 to the Stanford Medical Center and Main Quad to cover cutbacks on the 35 In addition, implement these improvements: °Increase the frequency of the 35 to run it every fifteen minutes all day. °Increase frequency of service in the Research Park to every fifteen minutes all day through a combination of new shuttles and/or short runs of the 24 or 88. ¯Pursue the use of smaller vehicles on the 86 and 88. NELSONINYGAARD CONSULTING ASSOCIATES 1-11 APRIL 1999 CITY OF PALO ALTO TRANSPORTATION DIVISION LOCAL SHUTTLE PLAN DRAFT WORKING PAPER 3 Routing considerations for all scenarios Routing in the downtown: Lytton or Hamilton? Middlefield or Webster? Generally, we recommend all buses serving the downtown (including the existing 35 and 86) use Lytton rather than Hamilton since the density there is slightly greater and it is closer to the Senior Center and Lytton Gardens. It may be possible to run some service on both Lytton and Hamilton, but routes going generally in the same direction should use the same street. For example, both the 86 and 35 should use the same street so that a person heading from the downtown to the Main Library would have the choice of two routes and could hop on whichever came first-- effectively increasing the frequency of service. The SamTrans 50C and 50V, however, could use a different downtown street from the 35 and 86 since there is very little service area overlap between these two pairs. Heading south from downtown, instead of .using Middlefield we recommend using Webster as far as Channing to best serve Channing House and other facilities at the east edge of downtown. From Channing, the service should run south on Middlefield. Louis or Greet? Louis Road is almost exactly a quarter mile from Middlefield.-If frequent service is provided on Middlefield, many people living on Louis will prefer to walk to Middlefieldrather than wait longer for a bus in front of their house. Therefore, Greer is generally a better choice for serving more residents. Routing in the Research Park Specific routing in the Research Park needs more study. There is no obvious single path connectingmost employers. Routing will depend in part on willingness of employers to contribute to the service, employer TDM programs, existence of sidewalks and other factors. Likely, more than one route will be necessary. San Antonio Shopping Center Whether service terminates at the San Antonio Station or continues around the shopping center will depend in part on extra time availability in the schedule, and perhaps on contributions from Shopping Center merchants. Stanford connections Further conversations will be necessary with Stanford to determine whether any Marguerite service will be through-routed into Palo Alto, or whether passengers will have to transfer at the train stations. Similar to the San Antonio Shopping Center, depending on schedules it may NELSONI/VYGAARD CONSULTING ASSOCIATES 1-12 APRIL 1999 ~ITY OF PALO AZTO TRANSPORTATION DIVISION LOCAL SHUTTLE PLAN DRAFT WORKING PAPER 3 be possible to extend some Palo Alto service past the train station to the Stanford Shopping Center. DART and other demand-responsive systems Each of the alternatives may be made more effective with a DART-type demand-responsive service at midday. Unfortunately, demand-responsive services have very high start-up and ongoing administrative costs. We do not recommend that the City implement any demand- responsive services until after several fixed route shuttles are implemented, tested, evaluated and refined. Fixed route services aregenerally the most cost-effective and user-friendly option in an area of the density of Palo Alto, but the City may find that demand-responsive services may be worth their high overhead cost to extend better coverage to lower-density areas, particularly at off-peak times. NELSONINYGAARD CONSULTING ASSOCIATES 1-13 APRIL 1999 Transit Routes Existing or proposed SamTrans service Existing or proposed Marguerite Existing or proposed VTA New services Bayshore Transit Intensity Service be~ter than every 15 minutes all day Service every 15 minutes all day Service every half hour oll day Hourly or irregular service Lytton Gardens Senior Station Hospital ~Medium Density Commercialor Residential Area~----~ Higher Densi.ty Commercialor ]~esidential Area rnia Ave ~ Stanford VA MedicalCer~ter ;House Jewish Center San AntonioStation San AntonioShopping Center PALO ALTO orth-South Routing COncept Map I Not to Scale Transit Routes FxJsting or proposed SomTrons service Existing or proposed Marguerite Existing or proposed VTA New services Freeway Bayshore Transit Intensity Service better than every 15 minutes all day Service every 15 minutes all day Service every half hour all day Hourly or irregular service Lytton Gardens Senior ~Center , Stati Stanford Hospital ~ral Jordan School rnia Ave Stanford YMCA / VA MedicalCegter Gum Center ~tevensonHouse Jewish~munity San AntonioStation San AntonioShopping Center ~Medium Density Commercialor Residential Area~Higher Densi.ty Commercialor Residential Area ast-West Not to Scale Concept els nln gam/ Transit Routes Existing or proposed SamTrans service Existing or proposed Marguerite Existing or proposed VTA New services Transit Intensity Service better than every 15 minutes all day Service every 15 minutes all day Service every half hour all day Hourly or irregular service Freeway Potential extension to downtown traiq station , Stem Lytton Gardens YMCA (~Center Potentiale Senior ~extension to¯San Antonio Station Station School ~ :-;.California Ave e House ~ San Antonio s ~esearch ~~ San ~ntonlo ~ ~rk ~~: . Shop~ngCe~er Hospital Quad : ~Medium Densi~ Commercialor Reside~ial ~Hi~her Densi~ Commercialor Residential ~ea PAJ.O Special Event Shuttle Concept Map 3 Not to Scale Transit Routes Transit Intensity Existing or proposed SamTrans service ~Service better than every 15 minutes all day Existing or proposed Marguerite ~Service every 15 minutes all day Existing or proposed VTA ~Service every half hour all day New services . ¯ ¯ = " ¯ m ~ ~Hourly or irregular service Bayshore Fr~way Reroute services indowntown onto Webster andLytton Lytton Gardens SeniorCenter Hospital Medium Density Commercialor Residential Area Higher Densi.ty CommercialorResidential Area Main Quad VA Medical Cegter Improvefrequency In Research Park San AntonioShopping Center Improved existing Map 4 Not to Scale transit TRANSPORTATION DIVISION LOCAL SHUTTLE PLAN DRAFT WORKING PAPER 3 CHAPTER 3.SHORT TERM ALTERNATIVES With these long-term concepts in mind, we then focused on short term routing alternatives. In this part of the process we wanted to identify shuttle routes that met all of the following criteria: Implementable by the City and local businesses on their own Do not compete with existing VTA, SamTrans or Marguerite services Focus on unserved or underserved areas ° Will generate high ridership and will be deemed "successful" ° Can be implemented quickly if funding is available Looking carefully at. the city, there were five possible new (or improved) shuttle routes that became evident. We presented these at our April 10 public workshop and have refined them as a result. These shuttle routes include: 1. An extension of the Stanford Marguerite Downtown Express Stanford currently operates a route called the Downtown Express that runs from the Hospital and Main Quad to Lytton Plaza in downtown Palo Alto at lunchtime. It is ~ne of the most successful Marguerite routes and it generates a high number of customers for downtown businesses. Stanford is already planning to adjust the route slightly to provide front-door service to the newly opened Stanford Museum, allowing downtown residents and employees a free connection to the Museum: One limitation of the existing service is that it only extends as far as Emerson Street in downtown. -We propose to provide additional funding to Stanford to allow them to extend the Express the length of the downtown - likely as far as Webster. The City already makes a significant financial contribution toward the operations of this shuttle, so the partnership has already been formed. In addition, it may be worth exploring expanding the service hours of the Downtown Express beyond the 11:00 to 2:00 lunch period. Market:Stanford students and employees wanting to shop and eat in Downtown. Downtown residents and employees wishing to visit the Stanford Museum, Medical Center or Main Campus. (If service ran all day, it would also serve Stanford employees and students living in Downtown North and University South neighborhoods.) Operations:Likely, Stanford would continue to operate it as part of the Marguerite, with increased financial participation by the City. NELSONItVYGAARD CONSULTING ASSOCIATES 1-18 APRIL 1999 CITY OF PALO ALTO TRA NSPOR TA TION DI VI$10N LOCAL SHUTTLE PLAN DRAFT WORKING PAPEr 3 Rating:High chance .of success. Builds upon existing model and partnership, with strong base ridership. 2. Embarcadero Road shuttle Employers at the East-of-Bayshore office parks have been wanting transit service for nearly 20 years. It is the largest concentration of jobs anywhere in the vicinity that currently has no transit alternative. While the closest train connection to this job cluster is at the California Avenue station, attractions along Embarcadero Road make it a much better alternative. Key destinations along the Embarcadero Road corridor include: ¯Several residential neighborhoods that currently have limited access to transit to downtown or th.e train station. ¯The Main Library and Art Center ¯Palo Alto High School ¯Gamble Garden Center o Town & CountryVillage °The new Palo Alto Medical Foundation o o Castilleja School The downtown train station and the transit connections there to Stanford, Menlo Park, downtown, East Palo Alto, etc., as well as pedestrian access to the downtown business district. Running frequent service that makes all these connections to and from East-of-Bayshore allows for a service that will generate significantly more ridership, plus will have increased frequency since there will be demand for travel in both directions at all times of day. Depending on the service schedule, it may also be possible to extend the line beyond the downtown train station to provide direct service to the Senior Center or Stanford Shopping Center. Limited Caltrain shuttle service to East Bayshore will begin this spring, and it will provide excellent baseline data for expanded service. The route will serve the California Avenue station and run express to the office park. We recommend that the future service t~se Embarcadero Road in order to capture additional markets. Market:Commuters to East-of-Bayshore offices, including lunchtime connections to downtown. North Palo Alto neighborhoods to the downtown train station, Stanford, Town & Country Village, PAMF, etc. North Palo Alto high school students to Paly Downtown and citywide residents to the Main Library and Art Center NELSON~NYGAARD CONSULTING AsSOClATES 1-19 APrlt 1999 CITY OF PALO ALTO TRANSPORTATION DIVISION LOCAL SHUTTLE PLAN DRAFT WORKINC PAPER .3 Operations:New Caltrain shuttle overseen by the City, with financial support from businesses and the Transportation Fund for Clean Air (Air District/Caltrain) Rating:High chance of success. Start-up funding already in place. High level of interest among businesses. Overcomes key school commute barriers. 3. New Research Park shuttles As we have noted before, the Stanford Research Park has approximately the same population and population density as all of Stanford University and Medical Center. Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that it could support a similar level of shuttle service as is offered by the Marguerite. Currently, service in the Research Park is limited to VTA’s lines 24 (every half hour, peak only) and 88 (irregular schedule, every 30 - 60 minutes), plus the Deer Creek Shuttle (four runs at peak only) which is sponsored by Hewlett Packard and Caltrain. Research Park employees have expressed a desire for better connections with the train, plus lunchtime service to the California Avenue district. Developing actual routing details within the Research Park is complicated. The concept map shows a single, arbitrary line connecting the densest areas. Instead, the service may break apart to serve more front doors, or it may be concentrated to provide very high levels of service to those employers willing to help fund and promote the shuttle, as well as those who have the best employee transportation programs and therefore can generate the highest ridership. Further conversations will be needed with Research Park employers to develop routing and scheduling plans. An interesting component of this proposed route is that it could be extended at peak school times to provide a direct connection between the College Terrace neighborhood and Jordan Middle School. when a similar connection was provided by the Stanford Marguerite, it was extremely popular among College Terrace residents. Market:Research Park employees commuting from the train station, express bus or other transit, and those living near California Avenue. Research Park employees running errands or going to lunch College terrace middle school students to Jordan Operations:Restructured and improved Caltrain shuttle overseen by the City, with financial support from businesses and the Transportation Fund for Clean Air (Air District/Caltrain) Rating:High chance of success. Funding and partnership for Deer Creek Shuttle already in place. High level of interest among businesses. NELSONINYGAARD CONSULTING ASSOCIATES 1-20 APRIL 1999 CITY OF PALO ALTO TRANSPORTATION DIVISION LOCAL SHUTTLE PLAN DRAFT WORKING PAPEr 3 4. San Antonio Corridor Shuttle Similar to the Research Park but on a smaller scale, employers in the San Antonio Road corridor--, including those on adjacen.t streets such as Sun Microsystems, Loral and many other businesses- lack frequent connections to the train, other transit and lunchtime shopping and eating places. VTA is already considering some improvements in this corridor, including increasing the frequency of the line 86, and adding a new line 47 that will run every 20 minutes at peak up San Antonio to Mountain View’s office parks in the Shoreline area. The City should work with VTA to balance service improvements for Palo Alto as well as Mountain View employers. Depending on the outcome of these proposed service changes, it may make sense for the City to provide some infill service to fill gaps in VTA’s schedules or serve destinations that VTA misses. In addition to major employers, the San Antonio Road corridor contains some of the densest housing in the city, p.roviding a strong base of potential riders who may want to go to the new train station, connect to other transit, o’r go shopping at the San Antonio Shopping Center. Routing details in and around the San Antonio Shopping Center still need to be resolved. It would be desirable to provide direct connections to the bus transfer center on Showers Drive, as well at the line 22 stops on El Camino Real. At lunchtime, closer connections to the Shopping Center stores would also be desirable. Whether or not these connections are made will depend largely on the train schedule and whatever time is leftover in the schedule after the shuttle makes its rounds through the office parks. Market: Operations: San Antonio Road corridor employees commuting from the train station arid other transit. Residents of dense apartment clusters along San Antonio Road going to work or shop Could be modifications of existing or proposed VTA lines, or a new Caltrain shuttle overseen by the City, with financial support from businesses and the Transportation Fund for Clean Air (Air District/Caltrain) Rating:Moderate chance of success, depending on outcome of VTA’s new service plans. High level of interest among businesses. 5. New citywide circulator While the previous four shuttle routes all serve a variety of purposes and meet the demands of both businesses and residents, some stakeholders felt they did not provide for "neighborhood" circulation. Many people wanted to see something like the Special Event NELSONiNYGAARD CONSULTING ASSOCIATES 1-21 APRIL 1999 CITY OF PALO At TO TRANSPORTATION DIVISION LOCAL SHUTTLE PLAN DRAFT WORKING PAPER 3 Shuttle that t~as been so popular during major events downtown. Unfortunately, the Special Event Shuttle has some major disadvantages if the City were to try to run it year-round: ¯It is very expensive. Running just the Special Event Shuttle year-round would cost over $1 million a year. °Much of its route duplicates existing VTA services including the 86 and the 35. It would not make sense for the City to spend its own limited resources to try to do what VTA is already doing, nor would that be good transit planning. Instead, the City should work with VTA over the long term to help improve the existing routes. ° The onlyportion of the Special Event Shuttle route that does not duplicate VTA service - the segment that roughly follows Waverley - does not include enough key destinations or dense housing areas to generate sufficient ridership to justify it. °The Special Event Shuttle misses key neighborhoods west of the train tracks, including Barron Park which currently has no transit service within the neighborhood. In search of something better than th~ Special Event Shuttle route, we went back to the drawing board to develop a line that met these goals: °Avoid duplicating existing servicie °Serve key destination that are currently not well served. °Serve key neighborhoods that are currently not well served. ¯Overcome key school commute barriers ¯Provide connections for commuters, shoppers, recreational users and other groups. Our final route proposal accomplishes all of these goals with a new line that snakes across most of the city. It begins at the downtown.trai n station (and possibly at theStanford Shopping Center if the schedule permits), runs through downtown past the Senior Center and Lytton Gardens, across Webster and up Channing to Newell where it serves the front doors of the Main Library and Art Center, across Newell to Jordan Middle School and down to Midtown. From Midtown, it cuts down to Waverley in order to get as close as possible to the dense cluster of apartments alo.ng Alma - while avoiding Alma itself (no sidewalks or pedestrian crossings) and taking into account available creek bridges. From Waverley, it wraps around the rich block that includes Mitchell Park, JLS Middle School, the Mitchell Community Center and Library, and Stevenson House. It then continues across East Meadow to get as close as possible to the dense housing in the Ventura neighborhood and crosses El Camino to provide direct service within the Barron Park neighborhood. Finally, it goes up to Gunn High School and runs past the Terman Center/Jewish Community Center before repeating the route. This community circulator achieve many important origin-destination pairs, especially if it is thought of within the context of other VTA routes - especially line 22. Its service area does overlap with a portion of the service area of line 35, it provides duplication only in key NELSONINYGAARD CONSULTING ASSOClATES 1-22 APRIL 1999 CITY OF PALO ALTO TRANSPORTATION DIVISION LOCAL SHUTTLE PLAN DRAFT WORKING PAPER 3 transfer areas: Downtown, Midtown and the Mitchell Community Center. Most importantly, it opens several entirely new markets in all areas of Palo Alto. It overcomes a variety of school commute barriers, complementing the line 86 to meet the needs of most students at Jordan, JLS and Gunn, and it provides front-door service to the Art Center and Main Library for the first All in all, we find this a very interesting route worth pursui,ng further. Market:A rich market serving many neighborhoods and important community destinations. Operations:New city-operated shuttle. Would likely need to be funded entirely by the City, perhaps with some support from the School District or private sector. Unlikely to be eligible for Caltrain shuttle funding. Rating:Difficult to estimate ridership given limited baseline data, but likely to be very popular. Will generate High enthusiasm by those who use it. Most expensive of all options, and no existing service to build from, so may not be best first step for implementation. NELSONINYGAARD CONSULTING ASSOCIATES 1-23 APRIL 1999 Transit Routes Existing or proposed SamTrans service Existing or proposed Marguerite Existing or proposed V’I’A New services Bayshore- Embarcadero- PAMF-Paly shuttle Bayshore Transit Intensity Service better than every 1S minutes all day Service every 15 minutes all day Service every half hour all day Hourly or irregular service Lytton Gardens SeniorCenter Station School ~~gCountry Center Stanford -- -Main Quad Expanded Downtown Express ~ ~--] Medium Density Commercialor Residential Area ~-~ Higher Densi.ty CommercialorResidential Area f~." New citywide circulator ~ornia Ave Station Improved Deer Creek Shuttle Stanford Improved San Antonio connector Center House Extend line to Mtn View pursue 15 minute frequency San Antonio Station San AntonioShopping Center VA Medical ~ JewishCommunity Gun~ Center Proposed Routing Alternatives Map 5 Not to Scale elsen\n. gaa d on|ultlo| mlmociatel CITY OF PALO ALTO TRANSPORTATION DIVISION LOCAL ,SHUTTLE PLAN DRAFT WORKING PAPER 3 CHAPTER4: EVALUATION OF ALTERNATIVES COST ANALYSIS Cost is the only significant impediment toward implementing any of these shuttle routes. In order to decide which routes to pursue, poli,cymakers will need to know how much they will cost, and what benefit they are getting for their investment. Below we outline service costs by route, and in the next section we calculate projected ridership. A more detailed financial plan is include in Working Paper 2. We include th6 following assumptions.in making these calculations: Contract service cost Hours of service per day $40 an hour 13 hours (roughly 7:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m.) Cutting back service levels during the midday period does not result in significant cost savings. The $40 contract rate assumes all-day service, and reductions in service during the midday W.ill result the contract cost for peak period increasing to around $65 an hour. In fact, several shuttle managers in the Bay Area who originally provided only peak-period service have since expanded to all day service once they discovered that adding midday service was essentially free. 1.Downtown Express* 2.Bayshore shuttle 3.Research Park shuttle $3,1,000 for IO-minute service at lunchtime only $270,000 $405,000 $44,000 including limited Sat/Sun service $380,000 Not recommended Not recommended $135,000 $270,000 Not recommended $190,000 Not recommended NELSONINYGAARD CONSULTING ASSOCIATES 1-25 APRIL 1999 CITY OF PALO ALTO TRANSPORTATION DIVISION LOCAL SHUTTLE PLAN DRAFT WORKING PAPER 3 4. San Antonio Not Not $]35,000 Not Shuttle.recommended recommended recommended $676,000 $949,000 $406,000 ~$569,0005.Citywide circulator *Cost for the Downtown Express does not include City’s current $14,000 annual contribution. Note that we make various recommendations regarding appropriate service levels on each route. Routes that are primarily employer shuttles, such as the Research Park or San Antonio Road service, should only operate five days a week. While it is worthwhile calculating costs and ridership for half hour headways on these routes for comparison purposes, at this time we do not recommend implementing half hourly service except where it is providing infill to existing services. P~IDERSHIP PROJECTIONS Ridership will be projected for each of these routes using the City’s Geographic Information System (GIS), which can tell us how many residents and employees are within a quarter mile of each route. Then, we can apply various formulas for what percentage of the potential market will likely use transit. For resident usage, we can look at transit’s mode share for other suburban areas with comparable levels of transit service. Depending on the frequency of service and other factors, between 5% and 10% of Palo Altans living in a given service area can reasonably be expected to ride the shuttle. For employees, we can look at the effectiveness of the wide variety of employee shuttles already operating throughout the Bay Area. For’employee usage, timed connections with Caltrain are about as important as overall frequency. Once we calculate conservative ridership estimates using the same formulas for each route, we can accurately rank the cost effectiveness of each proposed route. The cost per passenger ride will be a critical tool for policymakers to use in deciding which services get funded first. GOALS ANALYSIS In Working Paper 1, we identified the following draft service goals: Goal 1: Attract passengers who would otherwise drive cars -- Maximize overall ridership NELSONINYGAARD CONSULTING ASSOCIATE$ 1-26 APRIL 1999 ~ITY OF PALO ALTO TRA NSPOR TA TION DIVISION LOCAL SHUTTLE PLAN DRAFT WORKING PAPER 3 Encourage transit use among students who are currently being chauffeured by their parents Provide an alternative to driving for low-income persons Provide an attractive commute alternative in major corridors Goal 2:Provide benefits to all parts of the city Goal 3:Provide mobility options to, seniors, the disabled and others with special needs Goal 4:Support economic development -Provide access to employment -Provide access to shopping -Provide useful services to visitors -Contribute to community identity -Allow for business expansion without increased congestion Goal 5: Improve regional cooperati6n Goal 6: Minimize costs while meeting other goals In this section we analyze how each alternative meets these goals. Th’e charts below focus on Goals 1-4. Goal 5, regional cooperation, is a larger issue that these shuttle routes only begin to work toward. As mentioned earlier, these shuttles should be the starting point for a conversation among the City, its neighbors and the several transit operators that currently serve the area. In the short run, these shuttles would all be designed to make timed transfers with Caltrain, the Dumbarton Express bus and other transit. Their routes are planned so that they will increase total ridership for all transit operators rather than attempt to draw riders away from any routes. Goal 6, cos~ effectiveness, is analyzed in detail in the previous section. NELSONINYGAARD CONSULTING ASSOCIATES 1-27 APRIL 1999 0 ~. £.o ~ ~E CITY OF PALO ALTO TRANSPOR TA TION DIVISION LOCAL SHUTTLE PLAN DRAFT WORKING PAPER 3 Summary The following chart summarizes the performance of each route according to the city’s goals. They are ranked by the following key: Excellent Very Good Good Fair Summary 1. Downtown Express 2. Bayshore shuttle 3. Research Park shuttle 4.San Antonio Shuttle 5. Citywide circulator It is interesting to note that no route gets excellent marks across the board, although two tend to score more highly than the others: the Bayshore shuttle and the Citywide Circulator. NELSONINYGAARD CONSULTING ASSOCIATES 1-30 APRIL 1999 ATTACHMENT E City of Palo Alto Transportation Division April 1999 Submitted by: C~ITY OF PALO ALTO TRANSPORTATION DIVISION LOCAL BUS SYSTEM PLAN WORKING PAPER 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION ....................................1-1 Organization of This Working Paper ..............................1-1 CHAPTER 2. IDENTIFICATION OF POTENTIAL FUNDING SOURCES ......1-2 Federal Funding Opportunities ..................................1-2 State Funds ......... .........................................1-4 Regional Funds ..............................................1-4 Local Revenues ..............................................1-6 Vehicle Considerations .......................................1-14 CHAPTER 3. FUNDING STRATEGY ...............................1-21 Short-Terrh Funding Strategy’. ..................................1-21 Longer-Term Funding Strategy ..................................1-22 Summary ..................................................1423 Figure 1 Figure 2 TABLE OF FIGURES Summary of Federal, State and Regional Funding Sources ...............16 Summary of Local Funding Opportunities ..........................18 NELSON\NYGAARD CONSULTING ASSOCIATES I APRIG 1999 CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION Securing funding for a proposed local shuttle service is a major challenge facing Palo Alto. This paper presents a series of potential revenue sources that could be available to Palo Alto (o pay for a shuttle service. Working Paper #1 outlined five major goals for a Palo Alto transit system. The goal that addresses costs and funding is Goal #5: Minimize costs while meeting other goals. This reflects the desire for the most effective possible use of public and private funds. A corresponding objective is to minimize the overall city contribution by securing non-city sources such as private funds or government grants. Since the funding arena is both complex and requires a long-lead time for many revenue sources, two additional objectives have been proposed to help develop a strategy for Palo Alto to maximize its funding potential. They are: 1. Identify/secure funds to initiate ("jump-start") a new shuttle service by FY 2000. 2.Develop a longer-term funding strategy to provide a stable ongoing operating subsidy and secure revenues to support capital purchases. When analyzing the funding potential for a Palo Alto bus system, the obvious question arises: "How much money is needed"? The answer is a complex one and depends upon the type and level of service that is ultimately provided. At this stage in the Palo Alto bus study, it has been estimated that at a minimum, $500,000 per year would be needed to support a modest bus service, with up to $2 million per year for a more robust service. ORGANIZATION OFTHIS WORKING PAPER Following this introductory chapter, the next chapter identifies and reviews all conceivable revenue sources, including federal, state, regional and local funds. For each identified revenue source, there is a discussion about the approval or application process, the funding flexibility, estimated annual yield, lead time and other relevant information. There is also a section discussing the pros and cons of charging a passenger fare. Although the primary focus of this financial analysis is to identify operating funds, and to a lesser extent, capital revenues, this paper includes a discussion on the consideration of vehicle type - electric versus alternative fuel as it relates to funding potential. The final chapter in this report outlines a recommended financial strategy for a Palo Alto shuttle bus service. Based on the funding objectives outlined above, the long list of possible funding sources reviewed in Chapter 2 are then narrowed down to those that have the most promising potential for short-term success. Funding mechanisms that could provide Palo Alto with stable ongoing support for a local shuttle service are recommended as a longer-term strategy. NELSONINYGAArD CONSULTING AS$OCIATES 1 APriL 1999 CHAPTER 2.IDENTIFICATION OF POTENTIAL FUNDING SOURCES The purpose of this chapter is to identify all existing and potential funding sources that could be available for a Palo Alto local bus service. Existing Federal, state, and regional funding programs are presented first followed by a review of potential revenues at the local level including private sector contributions. A summary of each source is presented in Figures 1 and 2 highlighting the funding flexibility, application or approval process, estimated annual yield (if available), timeline for securing revenue and other relevant information. (The figures are found on pages 16 through 20 at the conclusion of this chapter). Figure 1 summarizes this information for federal, state and regional revenues and Figure 2 summarizes opportunities at the local level. FEDERAL FUNDING OPPORTUNITIES The Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century, or "TEA-21" was signed into law in June 1998. This massive federal transportation spending bill provides over $3 billion in annual Federal funding over a six year period. Although TEA-21 provides more transportation d611ars in California than ever before and allows more flexibility in how funds can be spent, there is a "backlog"Of proj.ects in the San Francisco Bay region waiting to be funded. TEA-21 does include discretionary and competitive grant funding opportunities that could bring new Federal capital dollars to Santa Clara County and Palo Alto. Transportation and Community and System Preservation Pilot Program .. A new innovative program of TEA-21 is called the Transportation and Community and System Preservation Pilot (TCSP) program. Its purpose is to fund projects that address the link between land use, community quality of life and transportation. This is an annual competitive grant process with about $20 million available in FY 1999 and $25 million per year for FYs 2000 through 2003. The program will favor projects that partner with private sector interests to make transportation and land-use connections. Cities are eligible recipients of these grant funds. There is no cap on the size of grants under TCSP. Priority will be given to projects that demonstrate a commitment of non-federal resources. Projects that make use of in-kind contributions, including funding from local, and private sources, will receive priority. Partnerships are encouraged and could include a broad range of transitional partnerg and non-traditional partners such as the general public, environmental community, businesses and other groups. The five major objectives of the TCSP program are: - 1. Improve the efficiency of the transportation system; 2. Reduce the impacts of transportation on the environment; NEL$ONINYGAARD CONSUL TING AS$OC/A TE$2 APRIL 1999 CITY OF PALO ALTO TRANSPORTATION DIVISION LOCAL BUS SYSTEM PLAN WORKING PAPER 2 3. Reduce the need for costly future investments in public infrastructure; 4. Ensure efficient access to jobs, services, and centers of trade; and 5.Examine development patterns and identify strategies to encourage private sector development, patterns which the achieve the goals of the TCSP. For the FY 2000 cycle, TCSP letters of intent were due March 15, 1999 with grant requests due in June, 1999. Selected projects would receive Federal grant funding at the start of the Federal fiscal year, in October 1999. Another solicitation is scheduled for May 1999 with decisions expected in June 1999. Funds will be obligated in October 1999 for Federal fiscal year 2000. Transportation for Livable Communities (TLC) This program of the Metropolitan Transportation Commission provides funding for planning studies and for capital expenditures for projects that strengthen the link between transportation investments and commur~ity needs. This program is targeting projects that have utilized a collaborative public planning process and are transit or bicycle/pedestrian oriented, have significant local community benefits, and have been driven largely from a "bottom up" initiative. Generally, small amounts are available on a discretionary basis. About $9 million per year will be available in the region for the next five years. These funds require an 11.5% match and could be combined with other sources. The first round of capital and planning grants were due in February and March 1999 respectively. It is assumed that’the ,next round of grant opportunities will occur in a similar time flame. Funding requests are submitted to MTC, who has developed a funding appli.cation and established criteria for evaluating project merit. Transportation Enhancement Activities (TEA) TEA is a grant program established under ISTEA and reauthorized under TEA-21. It is designed to fund environmental and alternative transportation projects which would not necessarily have other available funding sources. A wide variety of public agencies including cities, counties and transit operators are eligible for TEA funds. These funds are mainly used for capital projects, and can not be used for transit operations. TEA funds at the state level are largely committed to acquiring open space. Regional TEA funds are now applied for through the Santa Clara County Congestion Management Agency (CMA) who expects to program about $6 million per year over the next six years. The first round of programming is expected to begin late Spring of 1999 with approximately $1.5 million available for FY 99/00. A second round of programming~vill occur for the remaining $4.4 million the following year. The evaluation criteria emphasize the same qualities as the TLC program for the initial programming year. The CMA may elect to revise its criteria for subsequent funding cycles. As with other Federal funding programs, all successful project sponsors are required to follow the Federal process for securing Federal funds. NELSONINYGAARD CONSULTING ASSOCIATES 3 APRIL 1999 CITY OF PALO ALTO TRA NSPOR TA TION DI VISION LOCAL BUS SYSTEM PLAN WORKING PAPER 2 STATE FUNDS Petroleum Violation Escrow Account (PVEA) Funds PVEA monies represent fines/forfeitures collected against major gas and oil companies. These monies are intended for transportation-related purposes and are applied for through a local legislator to the California Energy Commission. The amount available from year-to-year fluctuates tremendously. This is a highly discretionary revenue source, which has the potential to yield significant amounts, particularly if the project can be related to clean air transportation. It is our understanding that in 1999 there is $14 million in PVEA funds, however Governor Davis has allocated $10 million for "specific purposes" and that the remainder is earmarked for reserves. This means there may be no PVEA funding this year. Funds would be likely be available in future years. The City of Palo Alto previously received a $200,000 PVEA grant to pay for station improvements at th~’Palo Alto CaITrain station. The grant was obtained through the assistance and sponsorship of State Senator Byron’Sher. rEGIONAL FUNDS Transportation Fund for Clean Air (TFCA) In October 1991, Governor Wilson signed into law AB 434 (now commonly referred to as TFCA funds) which imposed a $4.00 surcharge on all vehicle registrations. Forty percent of the funds generated in each county are returned to that county, while the remaining sixty percent of the revenues are distributed throughout the region on a competitive basis. Funds returned to the county are distributed at the discretion of the congestion management agency (for Palo Alto-the Santa Clara County CMA). The 40% funding pot totaled $2.6 million in FY 99/00. The 40% fund is open and competitive, meaning that the CMA may f-und any type of project without regard to mode or jurisdiction. Funding requests for the 40% pot were due to the CMA in January 1999. (The City of Palo Alto submitted two bicycle projects; however there is no decision yet on this funding request). Applications for regional funds are distributed by the BAAQMD on a competitive basis. The BAAQMD rank competitive applications using the following criteria: Cost-effectiveness (maximum 40 points) TFCA funding effectiveness (maximum 35 points) Other project attributes (maximum 20 points) Disadvantaged community (maximum 5 points) The CMA criteria incorporates the BAAQMD criteria, however the point assignments differ, with the effectiveness indicator worth 10 points out of a possible 100. NELSONINYGAARD CONSULTING ASSOCIATES 4 APRIL 1999 CITY OF PALO ,ALTO TRANSPORTATION DIVISION LOCAL BUS SYSTEM PLAN WORKING PAPER 2 Only public agencies are eligible to apply for TFCA funding. To be eligible for TFCA funds for shuttle/feeder bus service projects, the service must meet two requirements. One, it must be coordinated with and receive the support of the transit agency within its service area. This means that a shuttle service operating within Santa Clara County must receive a "letter of support" from VTA and possibly SamTrans. Secondly, theservice can not duplicate existing transit service. Since it is possible to receive funds from both the 40% and 60% pot, the City of Palo Alto is encouraged to apply for TFCA funds at the local andregional level. It should be noted that a number of VTA shuttle services are funded with TFCA funds and the Stanford Marguerite also receives funds from this source. In FY 1997/98, there were 13 shuttle programs funded with TFCA dollars. A few examples of these shuttle services include the Dumbarton Express shuttle ($51,300), SamTrans BART Shuttle ($136,000), VTA CaITrain Shuttle ($264,000) and Foster City Bridge Shuttle ($33,219). As with other funding programs, these funds are available only to public agencies. The regional TFCA cycle starts in April and grants are awarded in June. Gasoline Tax With the passage of SB 595 in 1996, MTC has the authority to go to the voters for a tax increase on gasoline of up to 10-cents per gallon. The legislation permits the regional transportation agency (MTC) to determine when and in which counties in the region the gas tax would be placed on the ballot. Because it is a special tax, the regional gas tax would need to pass by a two-thirds majority of the total regional vote. MTC does not "plan to place a regional gas tax before the voters prior to the year 2000. Poll results indicate that voters would not likely pass an increase in the gas tax above a 2-cent to 4-cent range. The major appeal of a gas tax is that it would generate a significant amount of new revenue. If a 10-cent gas tax were approved, MTC has forecasted a $4 billion revenue .stream over a 20-year period. Santa Clara County’s share of the regional tax is forecasted to be approximately $ 767 million for a ten-cent tax for a period of ten years. However, polls indicate that most counties would not have the required super majority for this level of gas tax. Instead, it appears that a 2-cent tax over a short time period (two to five years) may have a better chance of passing. In this case, the revenue stream would be substantially reduced. Alternatively, MTC may elect to place the measure on the ballot only in those Bay Area counties that appear willing to approve the gas tax with a super majority. The counties that approve the measure by two-thirds vote would be allowed to impose the tax even if their neighboring counties did not. A gas tax at the county level could encourage motorists to buy gas in neighboring counties. A gas tax has the potential to encourage people to use alternative forms of transportation because motorists directly pay for this tax. In either case, MTC is mandated to collect the tax and to be responsible for developing an Expenditure Plan that identifies the projects to be funded. The legislation requires that 95% of a county’s revenues generated from this tax must be returned to projects located in that NELSONINYGAARD CONSUL TING ASSOCIA TES 5 APRIL 1999 CITY OF PALO ALTO TRANSPORTATION DIVISION LOCAL BUS SYSTEM PLAN WORKING PAPER 2 county or to projects the-county has identified inside or outside of the county. No mechanism or formula has been developed that identifies a city’s share of the MTC allocation. LOCAL REVENUES This section identifies a series of existing and future local revenues that could be used to pay for a shuttle service. Existing sources are discussed first, followed by a review of new revenues, primarily local taxing measures. A summary of these potential local revenues is found in Figure 2, on page 18. Since some of the local revenues will influence decisions on vehicle type, there is a brief discussion at the end of this section on electric vehicles versus compressed natural.gas (CNG) as they relate to funding potential. Existing Local Revenue Sources Electric Utility Public Benefit Program In 1997, California State AB 1890 passed requiring municipal utilities to collect an electric charge to fund public benefit prograrhs. The funding level established for Palo Alto is approximately $1.77 million annually. This Public Benefit Program is a committed program providing enhanced revenues for up to four years. To continue this program, it must be reauthorized in four years, and is anticipated that it will be, even if at lower levels. This means that it should be a fairly stable source of revenues. The additional revenues are derived from fees imposed on businesses and residences based on electric usage. AB1890 established that funds can be expended in any one or more of four program, categories: Demand-side management programs New investment in renewable energy resources Research, development, and demonstration programs Low-income services The City Council approved an initial public benefits package with funding allocation as part of the budget process for FY 1998/99 with a not-to-exceed amount of $1.77 million. In February 1999, staff recommended to City Council a proposal to add new programs to the public benefits program to fully expend the $1.77 million targeted amount. One of the new programs is an electric vehicle demonstration with a proposed $35,000 proposed-target budget. If the City decides to pursue electric vehicles for its shuttle program then this would be an excellent source of funds to pay for the vehicle acquisition and replacement program. However, $35,000 would cover only a small portion of the total cost of an electric vehicle purchase. As an example, a 26’ passenger low-floor electric vehicle is estimated to cost $230,00. (19995). This estimate does must include ancillary equipment costs for recharging battery operated vehicles estimated at $40,000. To purchase vehicles using revenues from NELSONtNYGAARD CONSUtTING ASSOCIATES 6 APRIL 1999 CITY OF PALO ALTO TRANSPORTATION DIVISION LOCAL BUS SYSTEM PLAN WORKING PAPER 2 this program would require the City Council to increase its target allocation or Palo Alto would have to secure additional funds from another source. Palo Alto Utilities (CPAU) The Utilities Department is comprised of multiple utilities including gas, electric, water and sewer. Funds in each utility can not be moved from one to another. There is a small amount of revenues from the natural gas.u~ility that could potential ly be available for ash uttle service. These revenues are derived from a 1% customer surcharge that the City uses to fund a variety of demand-side management projects. This annual amount is approximately $300,000. The use of these funds are decided by the City Council at the recommendation of the Utilities Department staff. A project for the proposed shuttle service would compete with other "efficiency type" projects that are annually considered by the Utilities Department and City Council. If funds from the Utilities Department were made available to a shuttle service program, they would most likely be for capital investments, such as rolling stock. Funds for ongoing operating support are not as likely ~nd would require policy level review with City management. Palo Alto has an operational CNG fueling facility located at its Municipal Services Corporation. In addition to fueling some City owned vehicles, the facility provides CNG fuel to the Ravenswood School District and the Palo Alto unified School District for school bus transportation. The City is in the process of investigating the viability of establishing a public CNG facility station. A public CNG facility could be set up as a City enterprise or as a contract with a local gas station who would then make this facility available to the public. The FY 1999/00 budget has funding dedicated for a second CNG fueling station. Given the City’s existing infrastructure for CNG vehicles, it may be logical t0 consider CNG vehicles for a shuttle service. However, the Electric Utility Public Benefit Program provides an opportunity to pursue an electric vehicle program. For a review of vehicle considerations, please refer to the discussion of vehicle type at the end of this chapter. City General Funds Local funds could be direct financial contributions or could be provided through in-kind services. None of the cities surveyed by the consultant have used General Fund monies to pay for shuttle services, however the cities which fund shuttle services with local revenues, rely exclusively on Redevelopment Agency funds, of which Palo Alto has none. In the cities that have Redevelopment funds, using those funds for shuttle services does not take away money from general city services. Because Palo Alto has no Redevelopment Area and no Redevelopment Fund, using city revenues would necessarily result in having to shift dollars away from other important General Funds services such as police, fire, parks and libraries. For this reason, it is assumed General Funds monies would not be available for ongoing support for shuttle services. NELSONINYGAARD CONSUL TING ASSOClA TES 7 APRIL 1999 CITY OF PALO ALTO TRANSPORTATION DIVISION LOCAL BUS SYSTEM PLAN WORKING PAPER 2 The City of Palo Alto is providing in-kind services for managing this local bus study. The City could expand its role by providing in-kind services for a Palo Alto shuttle service. These services could take the form of providing staff time to administer an operating contract, developing informational materials to market the service, renting space at reduced market rates, and other miscellaneous responsibilities. If the city provides staff time to oversee the service, it cauld be with existing staff ar it may require an expansion of staff along with increased responsibilities. There could be costs associated with in-kind contributions that may eventually fall into the General Fund category. Should the City were to assume this role, it does not necessarily mean that it would do so for an extended period of time. There could be a plan for Palo Alto to assume a lead role in administering a shuttle service for a short time period with the intention of transitioning this role to an outside agency after a "jump start" of the service. New Local Revenue Opportunities There are a variety of tax measures that.could generate new revenues to pay for a Palo Alto shuttle bus service. However, theCity has a backlog of infrastructure needs that would benefit from enhanced revenues. Palo Alto has an adopted Infrastructure Plan that outlines a series of improvement projects to be implemented over a ten year period. The Plan has a $21 million shortfall over the next ten years. The City Council adopted an infrastructure policy that states that the City ought to fund the rehabilitation of existing infrastructure that support current services before funding new priorities. According to this policy, any new tax funding would logically go first to general city infrastructure before funding a flew project like a shuttle service. City staff have considered several revenue enhancing techniques to fund the Infrastructure Plan, however there is no definitive strategy. Tax measures being considered include a hotel tax, increasing the existing utility tax, expanding the utility tax, as well as others. They are being explored with local businesses and the Chamber of Commerce to understand their level of support and their potential to achieve voter approval. In 1996 voters approved Proposition 218 which requires voter approval to raise taxes or impose property-related fees. Proposition 218 applies to any taxes raised after January 1, 1995. Approval of a new tax must achieve a 2/3 majority vote by the electorate. A series of tax measures Palo Alto could consider in consultation with the business community follows. City Utility Users Tax The City has an existing 5.0% Utility Users Tax that is levied on electric, gas, and telephone services. This tax was approved by City of Palo Alto voters in 1986 with a 51% voter majority. The tax generates about $5 million annually. The Utility Users Tax helps fund a variety of programs and services. City staff is contemplating a revision to the utility user tax by adding inter-state and international telephone usage to the tax. This would i.ncrease the utility tax revenues by about $2 million annually. NELSON~NYGAARD CONSUL TING ASSOCIA TES 8 APRIL 1999 CITY OF PAL O ALTO 7"RANSPORTA TION DIVISION LOCAL BUS SYSTEM PLAN WORKING PAPER 2 Hotel Tax Many cities in the San Francisco Bay Area have a hotel/motel tax of 5 - 15%, with the typical charge falling in the 8 - 12% range. Palo Alto’s tax, at 10%, is in the mid-range of these cities. Revenues derived from hotel taxes are usually for general fund purposes and to pay for tourist related improvements. These could be widely interpreted to include a variety of infrastructure improvements, including a local shuttle service. This analysis has not estimated how much revenue could be generated with a hotel tax. It would be dependent upon the hotel tax rate and the number of visitor accommodations in the City. Parking Assessment Districts There are currently two parking assessment districts in the City. One is the University Avenue (Downtown) Parking Assessment District and the second is the California Avenue Parking Assessment District. The revenues collected from the property owners are used to pay off bonds for construction of existing parking facilities. There is discussion underway to initiate a second downtowfl parking assessment district which would essentially serve as an overlay to the existing district for the purpose of constructing a new parking structure. The fees to be collected would be used to pay for the construction of a new parking facility(ies). It is important to note that the parking assessment can only be used to pay for benefits the businesses are directly receiving such as a parking structure. This means that revenues generated from the assessment can not be used to fund a shuttle service. While an assessment district requires a majority vote of property owners, there is a requirement that only special benefits be assessed. It would be hard to assess special benefits to Palo Alto property owners for a service that could be used by anyone, including non-property owners, non-business owners, and non-Palo Altans. Therefore, a shuttle assessment would fail the Proposition 218 special benefits requirement. These "free" lots are primarily intended for short-term parking to provide shoppers with convenient parking facilities. City and other employees in Palo Alto have the opportunity to buy permits to use .the City parking structures for an extended time period. These permits cost approximately $280 per year. The revenues collected from the sale of permits is about $500,00 per year (FY 1997/98) for the Downtown Parking District and $118,000 for the California Avenue Parking Assessment District. Revenues are used to pay for ongoing maintenance of the parking structures. There is no surplus revenue that is used for other purposes. Since the City decides on the price of the permit, the City could elect to increase the price of the annual permit and use the additional revenues to help support a shuttle service. Mello-Roos Community facilities districts (CFDs) are authorized under the Mello-Roos Act of 1982. "Special taxes" are levied on pr.operty within a designated CFD to pay for public facilities and services. Local jurisdictions may form the district and levy the special tax after a 2/3 vote of NELSON~NYGAARD CONSULTING ASSOCIATES 9 APRIL 1999 CITY OF PALO ALTO TRANSPORTATION I~)IWSION LOCAL BUS SYSTEM PLAN WORKING PAPER 2 the property owners. A Mello-Roos special tax provides more flexibility than an impact fee because it does not require that the levy be linked to benefits received. The taxes may be used to fund a wide variety of infrastructure needs including transit. The revenues can be used for maintenance and operations. Parcel Tax ~ A parcel tax is a tax on property owners for specific purposes, such as road maintenance or enhancing local school district budgets. As with all specific purpose taxes, a parcel tax for shuttle service would require a 2/3 vote. The City of Palo Alto never has had a parcel tax. Two neighboring cities, Atherton and East Palo Alto have collected parcel taxes and their experiences are discussed below. For Atherton, which has 2,439 parcels, an annual parcel tax of $650 is currently being levied for parcels one-half acre to two acres in size. A higher tax is levied on parcels larger than two acres, and a lesser tax is charged to property owners with parcels less than one-half acre. The average amount collected on a citywide basis is $650, with $800 representing the maximum amount. The parcel tax was implemented in 1979/80 and has been renewed by the voters every four years. It is currently generating $7.6 million annually and is used for a variety of general fund purposes. East Palo Alto has also levied a parcel tax. The measure, which was approved by voters in 1989, was ultimately overturned in court because of the Gann Initiative two-thirds majority requirement. While it was being collected, the parcel tax generated approximately $1.0 million annually. East Palo Alto employed differing rate structures according to four land use categories: 1) single-family residential parcels o $1 75; 2) multiple-unit residential parcels-$60 per unit; 3) commercial property- $1000; and 4) vacant land- $100. If a parcel tax was approved in Palo Alto, it would be levied on an annual basis and include all parcels within the City limits. The amount of revenue generated by a parcel tax would depend on the size of the fee per parcel and any variance in fee per land use or parcel size. The City Planning ’Division estimates that there are 19,000 parcels in the Palo Alto. Depending on the size and structure of a parcel tax, it has the potential of generating significant new revenues. As an example, under a simple structure, a tax of $105 per parcel would generate nearly $2. million on an annual basis. Sales Tax Beginning in 1970, the State legislature has passed several bills that authorize County governments to levy permanent and temporary sales taxes for transportation purposes within their jurisdiction. Counties with a ½ cent sales tax dedicated to transportation purposes are known as self-help counties. Santa Clara County has a permanent ½ sales tax for transit capital and operations. Santa Clara County’s Measure B, an extension of its sales tax measure, was approved by the voters in 1996 and recently upheld by the courts. While having a NELSONINYGAARD CONSULTING ASSOCIATES 10 APRIL 1999 CITY OF PALO ALTO TRANSPORTATION DIVISION LOCAL BUS SYSTEM PLAN WORKING PAPER 2 minimal impact on the consumer citystaff have cautioned that raising the local sales tax even 0.1% could have a significant impact on large, business to business sales in Palo Alto. Cities may ask their voters to raise the sales tax locally if they can get their local State legislator to introduce legislation allowing them to go to the voters on sales tax. This could potentially be accomplished by State Senator Byron Sher who tends to be supportive of transit initiatives. If a local sales tax was increased by 1/10 of a percent it could raise $1.8 million annually. 1 The current approval threshold for a countywide sales tax is two-thirds. New legislation introduced in February, 1999 by Senator Burton (SCA 3) calls for a constitutional amendment to lower the threshold to a simple (51%) majority. If approved, it will be much easier to authorize a sales tax measure. However, this legislation is not expected to be approved by the Legislature in the foreseeable future. Payroll and Business License Taxes New payroll and business license taxes ~re subject to voter approval and, in accordance with the Gann Initiative, require a two-thirds majority. San Francisco initially enacted Payroll and Business License Taxes in 1970 and changed the procedures for administering the tax in 1989. Currently, on an annual basis, San Francisco businesses must fill out a form that declares the number of employees and the firm’s gross annual receipts. The information is processed by the Tax Collector, who levies a 1.5 percent Payroll Tax and a Business License Tax that varies depending on the type of business. For service businesses, the Tax Collector levies a $3 charge per $1000 in gross receipts. For retail businesses, the tax rate is half that amount. There is .a small business tax exemption that is based on the information provided by the business. Each business, regardless of size, pays a business registration fee that ranges from $25 to $150 per year. These taxes generate a significant amount of revenue for the City of San Francisco. The Payroll Tax and Business License generate $184 million and $31 million respectively, on an annual basis. The Registration Fee collects an additional $10 million per year. This Working Paper does not provide an estimate of how much Palo Alto could collect from a Payroll and Business License Tax. There are several variables that would need to be considered and it is beyond the scope.of this funding analysis. Private Sector Initiatives Other successful shuttle services have established public/private partnerships and have received generous financial support from the private sector. The private sector can be broadly interpreted to i ncl ude employers, merchants and retail establish ments. Private sector contributions could also consist of development impact fees described below. Contributions 1Jim Steele, Manager of Investments, Administrative Services Dept., City of Palo Alto NELSONINYGAARD CONSULTING ASsOCIATES 11 APRIL 1999 CITY OF PALO ALTO TRANSPORTATION DIVISION LOCAL BUS SYSTEM PLAN WORKING PAPER 2 could take the form of ongoing operating support or could also be used for one-time capital purchases such as passenger shelters and benches. Employers or merchants that benefit from the shuttle service may be interested in supporting it particularly if a bus stop were located at their front door to maximize convenience for their employees or customers. Retail and Merchant Contributions The proposed local shuttle service will benefit retailers and merchants in Palo Alto along University Avenue, California Avenue, the San Antonio Road area, the Stanford Shopping Center, Midtown, Town and Country Village, among others. In other communities it is common for retailers and merchants to financially contribute to a local shuttle service. A contribution may be favorably viewed if the annual contri’bution was not extraordinarily high. A floor of $500 for individual merchants up to $5,000 or more for larger enterprises might be a reasonable amount to contribute. An annual survey of riders could reveal actual usage and the initial amount could be adjusted upward or downward after one years experience with the service. Merchant contributions could also be used for one-time capital purchases such as passenger shelters and benches. Employer Contributions As the proposed shuttle service route and bus stop locations are further deft ned and finalized, employers should be given the opportunity for a bus stop to be located at their front door to maximize convenience for their employees. Employers or groups of employers that would likely benefit from a local shuttle service include Stanford Research Pa.rk, downtown employers, medical facilities such as the Palo Alto Medical Foundation Clinic, Stanford Clinic and Welch Road clinics, and employers located east of Bayshore Office Park and along San Antonio Road. For those employers interested in a "front door" stop, a funding contribution could be higher than emplOyers without this attractive element. The amount would be negotiated, although a minimum spo.nsorship of $I0,000 could be used as a guideline. Other employers that are served by the route, but do not benefit from a "front door"- stop, could contribute a base cost plus an additional amount based on the number of employees andlor an amount based on the number of square feet of office space. These financial contributions could be used for capital procurements, such as passenger benches or shelters, or preferably, the funds would be used for operating purposes. There are several existing shuttle services operating in Palo Alto that enjoy employer contributions. All of the CalTrain employer shuttles follow a funding formula which include employer contributions of about 25% of the total operating costs. For example, the Deer Creek shuttle which has been operating since 1995, receives funding contributions from Hewlett Packard (HP) along with funds from the Bay Area Quality Management District and CalTrain. Sun Microsystems and Loral also contribute funds for CalTrain sponsored shuttle services and follow the HP funding model. The new East Bayshore shuttle has a commitment of funds from Intuit, and the City and CalTrain are working with other employers to garner additional financial support. NELSONINYGAARD CONSULTING ASSOCIATES 12 APRIL 1999 CITY OF PALO ALTO TRANSPORTATION DIVISION LOCAL BUS SYSTEM PLAN WORKING PAPER 2 Palo Alto is encouraged to build on these successful models which are based on a public/private partnership. Experience in Palo Alto and other cities throughout the Bay Area demonstrates that employers are willing to financially participate in shuttle services if there financial contributions from the public sector. Effective strategies for securing financial commitments form employers include the City or other public agency taking a lead role in worMng cooperatively on the public/private partnership, and developing a shuttle service that directly benefits employees. Development Impact Fees A traffic or transportation impact fee is a charge imposed on new development to compensate for their impacts on the local transportation infrastructure. A fee is typically assessed on square footage of planned development. Impact fees can be implemented by local ordinance with specific criteria for establishing an impact fee. Impact fees can be imposed in downtown urban areas or in outlying growth areas. Like all developer fees, transportation fees must show a nexus between the development and specified improvement or service provided. The revenues generated from an impact fee can vary tremendously dependent upon the fee structure and the level of development’growth. There are two existing impact fees in Palo Alto:1 ) one fee is set at $2.79 per square foot and is imposed on development in the Stanford Research Park area, and 2) a second fee is collected in the San Antonio area and is set at $I .49 per square foot. Combined, these impact fees generate very little revenue, only $2 million over the last ten years. The revenue collected from these impact fees is earmarked for specific intersection improvements which have a total budget of $7 million. This means that at the current rate of collection, it will take an extremely long time to fully fund the intersection improvements. The City is considering the elimination of the two existing impact fees and introducing one citywide fee. A study examining the implications of such a fee, the "appropriate" fee structure, how much revenue could be generated, and identifying other transportation improvement projects that would be eligible for funding is scheduled for next fis.cal year (FY 1999/00). In addition to the already identified intersection improvement projects, City staff have identified other transportation-related projects that could benefit from an impact fee including a shuttle project, bicycle/pedestrian projects, traffic calming measures, as well as contributing funds to the County Deficiency Plan. Passenger Fares Passenger fares would provide an ongoing revenue stream to help support the cost of operating a Palo Alto shuttle bus service. While passenger fares would provide valuable operating revenues, the fares would be expected to recover only a small share of the operating costs. Bus services in the Bay Area typically collect between 15% and 30% of their costs from passenger fares with fares set at a minimum of $I.00 for local service. Shuttle services are generally free-of-charge. Four of the five shuttle services examined in Working Paper #I do not charge a passenger fare. Surveys indicate that the "free fare" is a major NELSONINYGAARD CONSUtTING ASSOClATES 13 APRIL 1999 CITY OF PALO ALTO TRANSPORTATION DIVISION LOCAL BUS SYSTEM PLAN WORKING PAPER 2 incentive for passengers who use these services. Passenger surveys on the Stanford Marguerite also reveal that the "free fare" strongly encourages ridership because the majority of passengers stated that they would not use the service if a fare was charged. If a fare structure were established, it would be extremely important to set the structure "appropriately." Setting a fare too high would discourage riders and create a disincentive to using transit. One-way cash fare on SamTrans and VTA local service is $1.10. If a $1.00 fare were charged on a Palo Alto bus service, then riders transferring between services would have to pay $2.10 to make a trip. Even a $1 o00 fare for travel within Palo Alto may seem excessively high and could discourage people from riding the service. A nominal fare of $0.50 could be considered as an alternative fare structure. Although the actual routing structure and ridership projections have not yet been finalized, it is reasonable to assume that passenger fares would recover no more than 15% of operating costs under a $0.50 fare structure. While passenger revenues could help to PaY for the ongoing cost of service, it would represent only a small portion of the total funds required. There could be initial capital costs required if a fare was imposed, and ongoing administrative costs that would reduce this revenue source even further. Buses would have to be equipped with fareboxes which have a unit cost of approximately $2,500 and would be added to the cost of a vehicle, or the contractor would have to provide vehicles with fareboxes. The routine administrative responsibilities would include daily emptying of fareboxes, counting and sorting coins, reconciling passenger fare revenues with ridership, depositing cash into a tran~sit account and maintaining records. Some of these responsibilities could be handled by a contract operator, however some would require involvement by the City or other lead agency. The ongoing administrative tasks are estimated to cost between $20,000 and $25,000 per year. Questions would also arise about discounted fares - should students pay the same as adults? What about senior citizens? For all of the above reasons, we are not recommending that a fare structure be introduced for the citywide shuttle, at least during the initial demonstration.. .VEHICLE CONSIDERATIONS The following discussion is not intended to be a detailed analysis of alternative fueled vehicles. It does, however, provide some parameters as it relates to funding potential. The City of Palo Alto is uniquely positioned to consider either electric or compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles for its proposed shuttle service. Through the Electric Utility Public Benefit Program, Palo Alto has access to funds to help purchase electric vehicles. Although the program has only recommended $35,000 for FY 1998/99, roughly 15% of the cost of an electric vehicle ($230,000 in 1999 dollars), there is the potential to secure additional funds through this program. The Bay Area Air Quality Management District is another excellent source to secure funding for electric vehicles. NELSONINYGAARD CONSULTING ASSOClATES 14 APRIL 1999 CITY OF PALO ALTO TRANSPORTATION DIVISION LOCAL Bus SYSTEM PLAN WORKING PAPER 2 One of the major advantages of electric vehicles is that they are much quieter than standard gasoline or diesel engines, so they produce very little noise pollution. They make excellent shuttle vehicles and can travel along streets that may not be able to accommodate diesel vehicles. There are several successful operations using electric vehicles, including shuttle services in San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara and West Berkeley. From a cost perspective, they are less expensive to maintain.than bonventional vehicles. Although electric buses are now used by several transit services and shuttle services, there are some logistical considerations that Palo Alto would want to consider before investing in an electric vehicle shuttle program. The range of most of today’s battery-powered electric- vehicles is 50 to 75 miles, meaning most electric vehicles performing small-scale shuttle operations can run for only four to five hours between battery replacement. This means that a battery change-out would likely occur during service hours possibly requiring a larger fleet. There may be other logistical constraints in terms of the operation of electric vehicles. With only about 80 battery electric vehicles operating in the US, finding an experienced contractor can be difficult. A logical alternative for Palo Alto is CNG vehicles. With an existing CNG fueling facility, the City would not have the difficulty many other transit services face in finding a place to fuel vehicles. Palo Alto may also be able to buy fuel at reduced rates. Contract operators have more experience with CNG vehicles and may be less reticent to operate them than electric vehicles. The City could also offer vehicle maintenance which would lower operating costs. An important consideration of vehicle type is vehicle ownership. Who ~hould own the vehicles? Should Palo Alto, acting as the "lead agency," purchase vehicles directly or should the contract operator provide the required fleet? The advantages of the City owning the vehicles and providing them to the contractor include: The field of potential contractors may be wider and a lower unit cost may be secured. Contractors that purchase vehicles amortize the cost as part of their operating costs which is more costly than if vehicles were purchased and provided to them directly. The City qualifies for government grants for capital equipment, but private companies do not. The major disadvantage to this approach is that it would commit Palo Alto to a sizable capital investment without the benefit of a demonstration or trial period for a new service. Also, contractual relationships are more complex if one party owns equipment that is operated and maintained by the other party. NELSONINYGAARD CONSULTING ASSOCIATES 15 APRIL 1999 o ~ z ~5"~"> E X O.z 0r-v CHAPTER 3. FUNDING STRATEGY This chapter outlines a recommended financial strategy for a Palo Alto shuttle bus service. This recommendation is designed to meet the following two funding objectives: 1. Identify/secure funds to initiate ("jump-start") a new shuttle service by FY 2000. 2.Develop a longer-term funding strategy to provide a stable ongoing operating subsidy and secure revenues to support capital purchases. SHORT-TERM FUNDING STRATEGY To be successful in the financial arena, the proposed service should be developed as a partners,hip between public and private entities with funding sources reflecting this partnership. The business community can participate in a local shuttle service in a variety of ways. The most effective strategy is to work collaboratively with the public sector. This includes supporting transportation legislation, lobbying for transportation-related tax initiatives, and providing monetary contributions as well as in-kind contributions to help leverage state and federal grants. Private sector contributions should equal at least 20°1o to 25% of the total operating costs during the first year of operation. These contributions could gradually increase as employers and merchants realize the full potential of the service. Public revenues would support the remaining balance and would range between 75% - 80% of the costs. Public funds that offer the most promising potential in the next one to two years include Transportation Fund for Clean Air (TFCA) and revenues from the City’s General Funds. Because Operating funds are far more difficult to secure than capital dollars, General Funds would be a good source to "jump-start" the service. It is unrealistic to expect that General Fund monies would be available for ongoing support; however, an initial investment would be essential to help get the service up and running. General funds could be gradually scaled back over a period of two-three years. This would allow the service to be introduced, gain community support and develop a ridership base while other revenues are being secured to ¯ support the service on an ongoing basis. An initial City investment would demonstrate a commitment to the business community and would serve as an incentive to gain their financial support. This type of public/private partnership is successful in funding other Bay Area shuttle services and favorably positions the City for competing for discretionary government grants. Given that this is a new service, it is recommended that Palo Alto not acquire vehicles at this time. This arrangement may mean slightly higher unit costs in operating the service, but it will allow for flexibility. NEtSONINYGAARD CONSULTING AS$OClATE$ 21 APRIL 1999 CITY OF PALO ALTo TRANSPORTATION DIVISION LOCAL BUS SYSTEM PLAN WORKING PAPER 2 In summary, a first year shuttle service could be funded with contributions from the following sources: FUNDING SOURCE PERCENTAGE SHARE ¯City Contributions 65% Transportation Fund for Clean Air (TFCA)15% ¯Private Sector Contributions (employers and merchants)20% Total Funding 100% This hypothetical funding scenario assumes that 80% of the operating funds would come from the public sector with the remaining 20% balance from the private sector. This first year funding scenariois based on successful funding models from other Bay Area shuttle services. Experience suggests that a significant commitment from the city or lead agency is necessary to "jump start" a new shuttle service. Funding contributions from the private sector is also needed to complete the public/private partnership. This scenario does not recommend a passenger fai’e because it could discourage ridership and would not generate enough revenue to offset potential ridership loss. Since local employers such as Hewlett Packard, Sun Microsystems and Loral already make financial contributions to existing shuttle services, this would be an excellent starting point to secure employer contributions. It is possible that these employers may be willing to contribute the same level of funds (they currently contribute to the CalTrain shuttles) to a citywide shuttle service, especially if there was a financial commitment from the City and other public sector, sources. This is not to suggest that securing financial commitments is easily accomplished. For example, in Emeryville where a successful publ ic/private sponsored shuttle service has been operating for over four years, the City worked cooperative!y with developers, employers and residential organizations in developing an initial shuttle program. After consensus was reached on a preferred shuttle plan, city staff continued a year-long process of negotiating with a developer/employer group on how to equitably share operating costs. The city made an initial commitment of Redevelopment Agency funds equaling.abobt 50% of first year operating costs. The balance of funds were from employersand developers, some of whom had previously contributed funds to individual shuttles and others were first time contributors. They all realized the benefits of cooperatively working together on a citywide shuttle service. LONGER-TERM FUNDING STRATEGY During the first one to two years of operation, Palo Alto should begin pursuing longer-term funding opportunities. This would include government discretionary grants and a tax measure that could ultimately provide an ongoing stable source for operating revenues and provide NELSONtNYGAARD CONSULTING ASSOCIATES 22 APRIL 1999 CITY OF PALO ALTO TRANSPORTATION DIVISION LOCAL BUS SYSTEM PLAN WORKING PAPER 2 capital revenues to acquire vehicles and other amenities. Assuming the service is successful, the City may want to acquire its own fleet and avail itself of several unique funding opportunities. There are two new unique new grant programs under TEA-21 that could provide Palo Alto with capital funds for projects such as passenger shelters, benches and transfer amenities to enhance the service and improve its visibility. The Metropolitan Transportation Commission’s ¯ Transportation for Livable Communities (TLC) program and the Transportation Enhancement Activities (TEA) could provide small amounts of capital funding. With private sector involvement, extensive community input and a process that benefits the local community, Palo Alto could be well positioned to secure these discretionary Federal grants. After a decision is reached regarding electric or CNG vehicles, Palo Alto should explore funding for vehicle purchases through the Electric Utility Public Benefit Program or the Gas Utility Budget. Another local source for capital revenues is a citywide impact fee. The City is embarking.on a study to evaluate a citywide impact fee. Key considerations include the level of funding to be annually generated, and the possible uses of this new revenue including a citywide shuttle service. These revenues could be used to help pay for one-time capital improvements such as a bus turn-out or passenger shelter or could be used for ongoing operations. To secure a stable operating revenue source is challenging. Unless the private sector is willing to fund a major portion of the service, Palo Alto will need to pass a tax initiatiVe. Under Proposition 218, approval of a new tax must achieve a 2/3 majority vote by the electorate. This funding analysis explored a series of tax measures that could generate large sums of revenue to support a shuttle service. The decision will ultimately rest with the City leaders, residents and business community on which.type of tax has the greatest potential to achieve the require 2/3 voter majority, and is considered the most "fair and "equitable." Regardless of whether the City pursues a sales tax, parcel tax or other type of tax, it is recommended that the measure identify a variety of transportation projects including infrastructure improvements, a shuttle service and streets/roads maintenance. If a broad selection of transportation projects are tied to the measure it may have a greater opportunity of achieving the 2/3 majority. Summary In summary, a short-term funding strategy for a Palo Alto, citywide shuttle service would consist of the following elements: Secure City funding contributions to demonstrate its commitment to a shuttle service. NELSONINYGAARD CONSULTING ASSOClATES 23 APRIL 1999 CITY OF PALO AL TO TRANSPORTATION DIVISION LOCAL BUS SYSTEM PLAN WORKING PAPER 2 Meet with employers and merchants to determine their interest and support for a citywide shuttle service. This would include existing shuttle sponsors as well as new employers and merchants who may benefit from a shuttle service. Develop agreements between the City and employers and merchants which outline financial contributions, and designate other administrative responsibilities for a citywide shuttle. This would likely involve negotiations to determine an equitable funding split between all funding partners. ¯Apply for Transportation Fund for Clean Air (TFCA) funds. Applications for regional grants are due June 30, 1999. Finalize first year funding plan and Secure funding agr.eements. NELSONINYGAARD CONSULTING ASSOCIATES 24 APRIL 1999 Service Alternatives Ridership Analysis ATTACHMENT B DRAFT Performance Proiections METHODOLOGY Ridership was projected for each of these routes using the City’s Geographic Information System (GIS), which can tell us about the number of residential parcels and intensity of commercial development within the service area of each route. To calculate our ridership projections, we used the following assumptions: ¯The service area of each route is assumed tO be within a quarter mile of bus stops along the route. Adjustments were made to account for areas were pedestrian connections are poor or impossible. °For base ridership, we assume 5% of all residents in the service area and 4% of all employees will ride the shuttle if it is provided every 15 minutes all day. (The 5% resident figu’re is very conservative. For ~ransit use rates in comparable communities, see chart at end.) We do not factor out riders who may take parallel VTA routes, such as in the Research Park. ¯We assume 2% of residents and 1.5% of employees will ride if the service is provided every 30 minutes. (The 30-minute San Antonio service is assumed to be infill, so there we use the 15 minute frequency figures, divided by two.) ¯We adjust the base ridership to take into account key community attractors and origins, i ncl uding schools, senior facilities and other corn mun ity facilities. Adjustment factors for senior facilities along the Citywide Circulator are based primarily on the performance of the Menlo Park Midday Shuttle, which has a comparable trip length and key attractors. Additional factors are added to account for better frequency on the Citywide Ci rcu lator and the presence of four schools. For the Citywide Circdlator and the Embarcadero Road and Research Park shuttles, we assume that all seats will be full on three to four runs per day that serve school start and finish times. o We assume that 1,000 people living along the Citywide Shuttle route work in Downtown or at Stanford and could use it for commuting. o Ridership projections for improvements to the Marguerite Downtown Express conservatively assume the existing riders will increase by 66%. ¯Contract cost to the City for operating the service is assumed to be $40 an hour for all- day service, and $65 an hour for peak-only service. Some peak-hour service costs are calculated at a $50 rate under the assumption that at least one peak vehicle will be used on the Downtown Express at lunchtime. ¯The service day is generally assumed to run from 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m., for 13 hours of service a day, except for the Downtown Express which would run only at lunchtime. Other service hour and frequency assumptions are listed below. NELSON[NYGAARD CONSULTING ASSOCIATES 1-1 MAY 1999 CITY OF PALO ALTO TRANSPORTATION DIVISION CITYWIDE SHUTTLE PLAN DRA F-I" PERFORMANCE PROJECTIONS For comparative purposes, we have tried to use the same assumptions throughout, but actual ridership is adjusted to account for the peculiarities of each route. We have calculated ridership and cost effectiveness on ly for service scenarios that are recommended. For example, we do not believe it is worthwhile running Research Park service on weekends, so we have not calculated the effectiveness of 7-day-a-week service. The~following chart describes the total residents and employees living along each route, alongside the annual contract service cost for various frequencies. Who will the routes serve? 2. 3. 4. San Antonio 5. Citywide shuttle Downtown express Station to Embarcadero Way Research Park see assumptions 1,700 950 1,500 7,000 see assumptions 2,700 25,000 4,500 1,000 -see assumptions 4,400 25,950 6,000 8,000 RIDERSHIP AND COST EFFECTIVENESS BY ROUTE Because each route has peculiar characteristics, we analyze each separately, using slightly different methodology to calculate ridership and. cost effectiveness. 1. Downtown Express improvements The Stanford Marguerite’s Downtown Express I.ine runs every 20 minutes from the Stanford Medical Center, Science and Engineering Quad and Main Quad to Downtown Palo Alto at lunchtime. Currently, it runs only as far as Lytton Plaza at the corner of Emerson and 1University, nearly half a mile from the end of the retail district at Webster. Although the service is operated by Stanford, the City pays Stanford $14,000 a year toward the contract cost of the service -- about half of the total cost. The route performs very well, carrying about 70 passengers a day to shop and eat downtown at lunch. Stanford’s average cost per passenger ride is only $1.57, excellent by most standards. Assuming a 10% profit margin, each passenger would have to spend only $15 on lunch and services to fully recoup the value of the shuttle to local merchants. NELSOMNYGAARD CONSULTING ASSOCIATES 1-2 MAY 1999 ~ITY OF PALO ALTO TRANSPORTATION DIVISION ClTYWIDE SHUTTLE PLAN DRAFT PERFORMANCE PROJECTIONS In this plan, we propose to add a second vehicle to the Downtown Express in order to improve its frequency and extend the service closer to Webster, spreading out the benefits among~all downtown merchants. In the chart below, we examine how these improvements affect both the total cost and performance of the route, as well as the incremental cost of the improvements. The ridership projection for the improved service is based on the conservative assumption that a 100% increase in service hours (including frequency improvements and addition of new destinations) would result in a 66% increase in ridership. That is, riders per day would increase from 70 to 116 -just 1% of the approximately 10,000 Stanford employees whose offices lie along the route. This route is especially interesting if it is implemented in conjunction with another City- sponsored shuttle route that needs less service in the midday than at peak. As both Stanford and Menlo Park have found, if you have peak-only service,, adding midday service is nearly free since contractors will significantly reduce their hourly rate for all-day service. For improved system-wide cost effectiveness, we recommend that this route be implemented in conjunction with the Embarcadero Road service or the Citywide Circulator, and that those routes have reduced midday service,’with the extra bus being shifted to the Downtown Express at lunch. Service details:Every 10-15 minutes Monday through Friday only 11:00 a.m. to 2:30 p.m. Downtown Express Performance Projections $14,000 $15,000 $31,200 $60~200 11,550 29,050 $2.70 $2.07 Evaluation Cost effective. Very cost effective if it uses a vehicle that is used only at peak on another line. 2. Station to Embarcadero Way For this service, we have evaluated three alternatives: 1)Service every 15 minutes at peak only 2)Service every 15 minutes at peak and every 30 minutes during the midday. 3)Service every 15 minutes all day NELSONINYGAARD CONSULTING ASSOCIATES I-3 MAY 1999 OTY OF PALO ALTO TeA NSPOR TA TION DIVISION CITYWIDE SHUTTLE PLAN DRAFT PERFORMANCE PROJECTIONS All alternatives would run 5 days a Week since ridership on this route is driven primarily by Palo Alto High School and commuters to East Bayshore. The morning peak is assumed to be 6:00 a.m. to 9:00 a.m., with the afternoon peak covering 2:30 p.m. to 6:00 p.m. to account for both the school and employer peaks. Ridership for this route is projected using our base assumptions for the catchment area, adjusted to account for the following: ¯We assume that students traveling to Palo Alto High School will fill two buses in both the morning and afternoon school peaks if the service is running every 15 minutes. We assume 30-seat vehicles and subtract regular commuter loads to predict student riders. ¯Midday ridership from East Bayshore employers is projected to be weak given the relatively low density there and the 15 minute travel time. No strong service peers have yet been found to provide a better baseline for such midday service to an office park or this type. If a better example can be found, proiections can be recalibrated. ¯ We assume that this service will be run in conjunction witl’~ the Citywide Circulator, and that the Citywide Circulator will capture the bulk of midday trips to the Main Library and Art Center. If the Embarcadero Road service runs alone, midday ridership will climb slightly, although it will not serve as many Library and Art Center trips as the Citywide Circulator given its smaller catchment area. It is important to note that these projections are also based upon the assumption that 15- minute frequencies can be maintained with only two vehicles on this route. In actual operations, this may prove to be impossible. Three or more vehicles will be required in order to provide service to the Municipal Service Center on East Bayshore, or if congestion increases even slightly along the route. Embarcadero Road 1) 15peakonly 41,300 12,200 2) Peak 15,41,300 12,200 midday 30 3) 15 all day 45,800 12,200 5,760 6,900 53,500 59,240 64,900 Assuming it takes only two vehicles to run 15-minute service, we can estimate total cost and cost per passenger ride for each of these alternatives. If a third bus is required, ridership will NEtSON~NYGAARD CONSULTING ASSOCIATE$1-4 MAY 1999 C’ITY OF PALO ALTO TRANSPORTATION DIVISION CITYWIDE SHUTTLE PLAN DRAFT PERFORMANCE PROJECTIONS increase due to an increase in the number of employers served, but cost’per rider will also increase, perhaps significantly. Embarcadero Road cost effectiveness ~i~i~i~!~!~:.~!!~!~!~::.~.~!:‘.‘.~:~:~::‘.::~:~:~:~:~::::~::: :~::,:::’..:::: :’::: ............. 1)15 peak only 2)Peak 15, midday 30 3)15 all day $169,000 $226,200 $270,400 $3.16 $3.82 $4.16 Evaluation At peak only, the Embarcadero Road shuttle should perform like a better-than-average Caltrain shuttle, since some reverse-commute trips will be filled with Palo Alto High School students. If a third vehicle is required, it will perform about average. Due to limited midday markets cost per rider increases with increased midday service, even though more peak-period commuters will be attracted to it. 3 and 4. Research Park and San Antonio Shuttles We analyze the Research Park and San Antonio shuttles together since they are similar in character. Both of these potential shuttles require additional development before firm ridership and cost effectiveness estimates can be made because two key variables are not known at this time: ¯Both shuttles require the active participation of the employers they serve in order to be successful. How well they are promoted by employers will have a dramatic effect on ridership. Moreover, the quality of employer-sponsored TDM programs will also tend to strongly affect ridership. Both shuttles will be most effective if implemented in partnership with VTA. These routes overlap significantly with existing VTA services and the Deer Creek shuttle sponsored in part by Hewlett Packard. Further discussions need to be had with VTA in order to implement a program that best meets every, organization’s objectives. Nevertheless, if we assume enthusiastic support from area employers, as well as integration with VTA routes, we can make ridership projections calibrated to other Caltrain shuttles, with baseline service using the same catchment assumptions as the other routes. For the Research Park shuttle, we also assume three runs serving Jordan Middle School and the College Terrace neighborhood will be full of students. NELSONINYGAARD CONSULTING ASSOCIATES 1o5 MAY 1999 CITY OF PALO ALTO TRANSPORTATION DIWSlON CITYWIDE SHUTTLE PLAN DRAF[" PERFORMANCE PROJECTIONS For the Research Park, we assume that only 15,000 of the Park’s total 25,000 employees will be within walking distance of the shuttle due to accessibility difficulties there. Research Park and San Antonio Shuttle ridership 3. Research Park 163,410 4. San Antonio - 63,440 33,150 Research Park and San Antonio Shuttle cost effectiveness :::4:’ 3. Research Park $240,400 $4.26 4. San Antonio $135,200 $4.08 Evaluation The City should continue to work with V-I-A and local employers to pursue shuttle improvements between the train stations and San Antonio Road/Research Park employers. These rough productivity estimates suggest there is considerable untapped market potential. 5. Citywide Circulator Projecting .ridership on the Citywide Circulator is especially complicated given the total trip length and the rich variety of attractors along the way. Because they do not take into account the extra attractiveness of a free-fare, locally operated service, transit ridership models will tend to grossly un~lerestimate potential riders, as was the case with the City’s Special Event Shuttle as well as Menlo Park’s Midday Shuttle, a service very similar in character to this route. For this reason, we use the performance of similar systems as a baseline for projecting ridership here, particularly the Menlo Park service and the successful Emery-Go-Round shuttle in Emeryville. As with the Embarcadero Road service, we calculate school ridership based on the availability of seats in the school peaks. For the purposes of our evaluation, we assume the service operates: o every 15 minutes from 6:00 a.m. to 9:00 a.m., and 2:30 p.m. to 6:00 p.m., Monday through Friday NEI.SONINYGAARD CONSULTING ASSOCIATES 1-6 MAY 1999 CITY OF PALO ALTO TRANSPORTATION DIVISION CiTYWIDE SHUTTLE PLAN DRAFT PERFORMANCE PROJECTIONS every 30 minutes the rest of the service day from 6:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m., Monday through Friday every 30 minutes from 8:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m. Saturdays no service on Sundays Different frequencies and service spans will have to be adjusted accordingly, but cost per rider figures should not change significantly. Citywide Circulator Ridership 15 minute weekday peak 30 minute midday 30 minute Saturday Total for complete service 65,000 59,800 36,660 161,460 39,950 104,950 18,200 78,000 18,200 54,860 36,400 [ 237,810 Assuming a slightly higher contract rate for peak-only service, we can then calculate contract costs for each service period, along with the total for the whole service. Citywide shuttle cost effectiveness 15 minute weekday peak $390,000 $3.72 30 minute midday $218,400 $2.80 30 minute Saturday $249,600 $4.55 Total for complete service $858,000 $3.61 Evaluation Despite its considerable length and all-day service, the Citywide Circulator performs very well since it serves such a large number of potential markets. NELSONINYGAARD CONSULTING ASSOCIATES I-7 MAY 1999 CITY OF PALO ALTO TRANSPORTATION DIVISION CITYWIDE SHUTTLE PLAN DRAFT PERFORMANCE PROJECTIONS SUMMARY OF FINDINGS All of the proposed routes perform well within the cost effectiveness ranges of other typical transit and shuttle services, and all could be deemed "successful" under general cost effectiveness criteria. Since there are no striking differences in route productivity, decision makers will be free to examine how each route meets the City’s other goals when deciding which routes have highest priority. 1. Downtown Express 2a.Embarcadero Road 15 min peak o.nly 2b. Embarcadero Road 15 min peak plus 30 min midday 2c. Embarcadero Road 15 min all day 3. Research Park 15 all day $45,200~ $169,000 $226,200 29,050 53,500 59,240 $2.072 $3.16 4. San Antonio infill $135,200 33,150 5. Citywide Circulator $858,000 237,800 . Total cost to City; does not include Stanford contribution 2. Total cost effectiveness does include Stanford contribution 3. Does not factor ridership competitiofi with VTA. Will require cooperation with agency. $3.82 $270,400 64,900 $4.16 $405,400 163,410 $2".483 $4.08 $3.61 NELSONINYGAARD CONSULTING ASSOCIATES 1-8 MAY 1999 CITY OF PALO ALTO TRA NSPOR TA TION DIVISION CITYWIDE SHUTTLE PLAN DRAFT PERFORMANCE PROJECTIONS BASELINE DATA In general, these cost effectiveness figures are in keeping with similar shuttles and transit routes in the Bay Area. Marguerite average $1.20 Marguerite - SLAC $3.00 Marguerite - Line A $1.00 Existing Downtown Express $1.90 Menlo Park Marsh Rd. Shuttle $3409 Menlo Park Willow Rd. Shuttle $4.07 Menlo Park Midday $1.71 Other shuttle service systemwide performance VTA systemwide bus average $3.43 VTA light rail average $7.64 VTA line 22 VTA line 86 VTA line 88 VTA line 35 AC Transit $2.27 MUNI bus $2.13 Golden Gate Transit $4.84 BART $6.13 Caltrain runs only, 192,000 $132,340 $0.64 3,000 750,000 $1,000,000 $1.33 Deer Creek Shuttle 100 24,100 $92,800 $3.55 Marsh Road 89 19,000 $86,000 $3.09 Willow Road 79 21,130 $86,000 $4.07 Sun/Willow Express 105 27,300 $87,000 $3.19 Menlo Midday 70 18,000 $90,528 $1.71 * ¯ This calculation works out to be $5 per ride. Check with Menlo Park for formula. NELSON~NYGAARD CONSULTING ASSOCIATES 1-9 MAY 1999 CITY OF PALO ALTO TRANSPORTATION DIVISION CITYWIDE SHUTTLE PLAN DRAFi" PERFORMANCE PROJECTIONS Transit usage in other communities Although transit use in Santa Clara County is very low, comparable communities are able to achieve much higher rates. The charts below examine transit usage in comparable communities based on the 1990 Census Journey-to-Work data. Transit usage in: Comparable residential areas Comparable employment areas Palo Alto 1990 2.5% Santa Clara County 3.0% average El Cerrito 17.7% Kensington 13.2% Moraga I 0. 1% Mill Valley 11.9% Fairfax 11.3% Piedmont 8.4% Burlingame .7.6% Palo Alto 1990 Santa Clara County average Berkeley Emeryville San Leandro El Cerrito San Bruno Menlo Park Alameda 3.4% 2.6% 11.2% 6.1% 4.4% 9.8% 6.2% 3.2% 4.9% NELSOMNYGAARD CONSULTING ASSOCIATES I-I0 MAY 1999 Excerpt of Draft Planning Commission Minutes from ATTACHMENT C ,April 28, 19.9~9 M.eet.ing .................,. "54 SECOND: CommissionerBurt~ _ _ . . _ i . 78 ~~~~i~~? That carries on a 7-0 vote. Joe, thank you very much. 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 Chairman Byrd: Why don’t we take a five minute break here before we launch into the shuttle. Palo Alto Shuttle Plan - Review of Draft Service Alternatives. The final item on our Agenda tonight under Reports From Officials is a review of the Draft Service Alternatives for the proposed Palo Alto Shuttle which is something that this Commission has spent a great deal of time cheerleading on and is delighted to finally see in detailed form. So I invite Staff to introduce the issue. Mr. Kott: Thank you Chairman Byrd. As Chairman Byrd indicated the topic is the Palo Alto Shuttle Bus Study and update on progress in the study and a request for input from the Planning Commission on in particular what are called "service alternatives," conceptual routing and generalized ideas about frequency. We also have some information about the costs. The Comp Plan, as you all know, has as its first two broad transportation goals less reliance on the single occupant automobile and the development of a convenient efficient public transit system that provides a viable alternative to driving. There are a couple of policies specifically treating local transit. One, to provide local transit which we have several local transit providers already, VTA, SamTrans, Stanford Margurite, and so forth. The second one is key to this study. Establish a jitney bus service similar to Stanford University’s Margurite Shuttle. Emphasis on this is not to compete with VTA or SamTrans and it is not to overlap with them. It is not to create a redundancy but to compliment and supplement unmet needs particularly with vehicles that are less intrusive, you might say, less polluting. The Shuttle Bus Study therefore is a response to the Comprehensive Plan mandateg and been underway since Fall. There have been two public workshops, very successful workshops, half day events in which members of the public assisted in a conceptual design group and provided quite a bit of input at the second session on the refinement of those designs. There is an advisory committee grouped around the study that has been very active. There have been some meetings with stakeholders. Tonight we’ll talk about the service altematives. We’ve also got some work, I think it was provide as an information item in your packet, on funding options or funding alternatives. We have information on cost estimates. Our consultant is not yet finished with demand estimates which of course are key. Mr. Burt talked about the importance of cost/benefit view of investments like this. Of course boardings are a rough and ready measure of benefit. City of Palo Alto Page 29 1 2 3 4 ,,5 6 7 8 9" 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 The Planning Commission is being asked to review and comment on work to date, tonight. You’ll have a subsequent opportunity at one of your June meetings to review the entire plan. The entire plan will have final recommendations on routing and on phasing of the routes, on frequency of service, on fare/no fare policy that still remains an issue, on number of vehicles and vehicle types particularly where the altemative is CNG or electric that would be provided; and really to prioritize and time phase this based on your views of the importance of individual routes, their cost/benefit or at least their benefit, and of course their cost as well. I would like to pass the baton over after this brief introduction to Gail [Likens] who has been on the Transportation Staff for a long time. She is our Staff specialist both in transit and in bicycle planning. In fact, Gail is our Staff lead on- development of our bike master plan which will be coming before you, we hope, in your role as Transportation Commission, over the next nine months or so. Gail will describe the study further and later we’ll have presentation by our consultant. Thank you. Ms. Gail Likens, Transportation Staff: Thank you Joe. I just wanted to briefly update you in terms of where we are in the study process. We’ve completed basically two tasks in the study process since we began the consultant study in October. We are working now on the service alternatives. We are in the middle of that .phase of the study. We are planning on going back to the Council next month with the input we receive from you and with all the input we’ve received to date from the public through our Study Advisory Committee and the workshop we held. Then we will be coming back to you at the end of June with the draft plan, then we will go on to the Council in July. I wanted to just discuss where we are with the short term plan that we are presenting to you tonight and asking for your comment on and the longer term process. As we worked through this process it became very clear to us that we have existing transit services in the community and while they are participating in our study process they are not changing their routes as a result’of this study process right now. So in looking at the short term we’ve identified routes for your consideration that can be implemented without any changes in existing transit services provided by VTA or SamTrans. They have their own processes for updating and reconfiguring their routes. The routes that we are proposing are in-fill routes that can be implemented independently, that do not duplicate service, and that we think are doable and stand alone routes that provide a need thatisn’t met currently. Because those routes that are provided by the transit agencies are structured right now, they operate on certain streets that might also be candidates for good shuttle services. But it would not be appropriate right now to present routes that would duplicate or compete with any existing transit services. So we identified a process that would involve a second phase which is a longer term look at what we can do to look at the whole s3~stem in Palo Alto and develop a partnership particularly with VTA because two of the routes that they operate in this community, Route 88 which is a loop in South Palo Alto and Route 86 which runs from Downtown Palo Alto to Mountain View along Channing and Lewis, do not perform that well. They operate at frequencies that are not that great and their ridership is relatively low. We would like to partner with VTA in the longer term to look at how those routes and their resources could be restructured to work better for. Palo Alto. In concert then, develop a plan of shuttles and transit that works better for the community. We call that, in the Staffreport, the Long Range Plan. Since the Staff report was prepared and our first meeting with the General Manager of VTA, Pete [Sopola] we have had a second meeting with his staffto talk about how we could get that process started. We are ready to begin that process very shortly. VTA has a planning City of Palo Alto Page 30 1 2 3 4 .5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 process that involves reevaluating their route structures and recommending improvements on an annual basis. They’ve already begun that process for the 1999-2000 year. As mentioned in the report, they will be recommending some service changes be implemented in the North County with the start-up of the light rail in December of 1999, modifying Route 35 as was discussed in the report. For the year 2000 changes, the July 2000 changes, starting now is when they would begin to look at the changes and develop a plan that they would begin presenting next Fall. So the long range plan is a little bit shorter term than was indicated in the report. It seems that our short range plan, in terms of looking at what could be implemented in the short term beginning this fiscal year, 1999-2000 for Palo Alto, can proceed and then move on to work with VTA over the next few months to see what can be done with their routes in concert with our routes beginning in the year 2000. So with that I would like to, if at that Chair’s pleasure, ask our consultant Jefferey [Tumlin] and Nelson [-Nygard] to give you a mini workshop on what we’ve done to date in terms of the presentation materials we presented at the public workshop and to bring you up to speed on how we arrived at the five short term alternative routes that we are proposing. The four routes that we call extensions or improvements of existing shuttles and the City-wide circulator route which he has wonderful graphics for. So if that’s your pleasure we would like to take some time to have that presentation now.. Mr. Jefferey Tumlin, Senior Planner, Nelson Nygard: Thank you Gail. Chairman Byrd, members of the Commission, my name is Jefferey Tumlin, I’m a Senior Planner with the firm of Nelson Nygard in San Francisco. Our firm specializes solely in integrated multi-modal transportation systems planning. Before joining Nelson Nygard I worked for Julia Freeman who is also here this evening. Together she and I managed and developed all of the transportation systems for the Stanford University campus. I know Palo Alto very well and I am very, very happy to be here tonight. By the way all of these materials are included in your packet, your packet contains the entire text and graphics of working papers two and three which I’ll just be summarizing briefly here tonight. The first .step in our process was to sit down with our project advisory committee and decide what are we trying to accomplish here. What should a shuttle system or transit system in Palo Alto do? The first goal that came up was originally phrased, reduce congestion. We rephrased it to say, attract people who would otherwise drive their cars. We wanted to specify that this means focusing a lot of frequent service in important corridors, providing an intensity of service that will proyide a real choice for people who would otherwise drive. We also wanted to specify that we wanted to try and target school students particularly at the middle schools and the high schools. We wanted to focus on low income people who would be concerned about the costs of owning a car. And finally to target Palo Alto commuters in all the business districts and people especially who live along existing primary transit routes. Our second goal, which is in direct conflict with the first goal, is to provide benefits to all parts of the City. I’ll discuss this tension a little bit later. City of Palo Alto Page 31 1 2 3 4 .5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 The third goal was to provide mobility to seniors and the disabled. Fo-arth is to support economic development by providing access to jobs and shopping, by contributing to ’a sense of community identity through a local sht~ttle that had a specific Pato Alto image. That shows that Palo Alto is really trying to do something to solve local and regional transportation problems. And finally, to explore allowing business activity to expand without increasing congestion. Our fifth goal was to foster regional cooperation and this is something we are working on right now. The final goal is to minimize the City’s costs while meeting all of the other five goals. All very noble and good. As I said, the first two goals are in tension with one another and this doesn’t read all that clearly. If you have a limited budget, if you’ve got a limited number of buses, you can do one or two things. You can spread the buses out all over the City making sure that you provide service to every neighborhood, to every senior center, to every school, to every person who needs it. The result of this strategy is that you have infrequent service that is disbursed everywhere but it is extremely important to the people who need it. It tends to produce low ridership but it is also very popular. A second strategy i~ to take all of those ten buses and concentrate them only on your densest, most productive corridors, providing high-frequency service, that provides a true alternative to driving, but only to those people who are in the densest corridors. The result tends to be higher ridership and lower cost per passenger ride but you are forced to leave out entire neighborhoods. We’ve been assuming that the Palo Alto strategy will fall somewhere in between the two. This has been a source of a great deal of debate within our project advisory committee and throughout our outreach process, and I’m sure it will be a debate here among you tonight. These two goals really get at the root of the transit problem. The next step in our process was to collect a lot of data and information. I won’t go over all of this but I want _to point out a couple of really interesting data points. One is we looked at existing commute characteristics and we found out that about 19% of people who live in the Palo Alto/Stanford area also work in the Palo Alto/Stanford area. Or 17,000 people have a commute trip that is intra-Palo Alto/Stanford which is a lot of people and a great market for a local shuttle system. Of those people 64% of them are currently driving alone to their jobs. Finally, we looked at all trips within Palo Alto and one thing that is very important to realize is that work trips make up generally less than 30% of total trips. So we wanted to make sure that the study focused on .shopping, recreatifn, school, other trips as well. In fact, among those intra-Palo Alto commuters a huge number of their trips are for purposes other than work. Our next step was to look at the existing transit service in Palo Alto and see what it was accomplishing. This is basically a re-doing of the regular system map that all the transit agencies produce but instead of showing each line of equal weight, we like to actually have the line weights portray what the frequency of the route gre. So you can see an enormous difference in service from one route to another. Not just looking at random lines scattering all over the map. The line 22 which runs up and down E1 Camino Real from Menlo Park to Downtown San Jose and way over to the east City of Palo Alto Page 32 1 2 3 4 ,5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 3O 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 4O 41 42 43 44 side of the valley is the workhorse of the entire VTA bus system. It runs about every nine minutes during the day in Palo Alto, and there is some service extended 24 hours a day, seven days a week. There are more people who take the line 22 in Palo Alto than fide the entire Margurite system every day. There are a huge number of intra-Palo Alto trips on the 22 and there is a lot of people commuting in and out of the City on the 22. It is a great service. There is nothing we want to do to touch it. The second most important service in Palo Alto is the line 35 which currently runs from Stanford Hospital, Downtown Train Station, through the Downtown and then out Middlefield to the San Antonio Shopping Center. Right now it is running up to Foothill College but VTA proposes to instead run it through Mountain View to the Downtown Mountain View Cal Train and Light Rail Station. We think that this is a terrific idea. We think that it is a really neat idea to have VTA consider the line 35 as a rubber-tired extension of their Light Rail extension. The line 35 has a moderate level of ridership but it connects some of the most important community functions in the entire City. We’ll look at those a little bit later. The other three important routes in Palo Alto are the 86 which runs very infrequently in the Lewis/Channing ~zorridor connecting the San Antonio Station to the Downtown Train Station, and the 88 which makes this big loop throfigh South Palo Alto up to Gunn High School, the VA and the Research Park. There is also line 24 that comes in from San Jose, up Foothill and through the Research Park to the California Avenue Train Station. At our public workshop we asked the attendees to design their ideal transit system within a fixed budget of service hours. It was an extremely interesting process which resulted in very strong consensus on a number of key issues. Those include, definitely keeping great service on E1 Camino. Everyone recognized Middiefield Road as a really key spine. People also pointed out other important dense corridors including Arastradero and Charleston. They identified the train stations and the business districts as really important, destinations and that there need to be connections between them. The challenges that people straggled with were, one, the need to provide some cross- town connections particularly east-west direction. People really seemed to sort of want that but there was no consensus about exactly how to do that. Then finally, of course, this whole issue of how do you trade off frequent service on your productive oriented routes versus coverage to all neighborhoods. That was something that every single group struggled with and each one came up with interesting different takes on the issues. Next we started talking to a wholevariety of stakeholder groups throughout the City. One of the greatest advantages that Palo Alto has when it comes to planning transit is that almost all of your important stuff is on key corridors. You have not buried your City Hall or your senior centers or your schools deep into cul-de-sacs or on dead-end or one-way streets. In fact, a lot of them line up basically on this long line that includes Stanford, the shopping center, the Downtown Train Station, City Hall, the senior center, Lytton Gardens, Channing House, the Lucy Stem Center, the main library, cultural center, Jordan Middle School, Mid-Town, the YMCA. All this ton of stuffthat is in the block that is around Mitchell Park. Then the San Antonio Shopping Center and the new train station there and then up Arastradero Road to include the VA, Gunn, the [Truman] Center, the City of Palo Alto Page 33 1 2 3 4 ,,5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 Jewish Community Center, and then there is this little split over here that hits Palo Alto High School, Town & Country shopping center and the Palo Alto Medical Foundation. An amazing set up. The schools were a really important stakeholder group that we talked to. One of the things that they identified was that there were a lot of pieces of the districts, of particularly the middle schools and the high schools, where students have to cross major barriers in order to get to school. So these are some of the barriers that we wanted to try to address. Where we think we can get a lot of ridership ¯ from middle school and high school students going from the Barron Park neighborhood, to JLS, from most of South Palo Alto to Gunn you’ve to the train tracks and E1 Camino, getting across Oregon Expressway to get to Jordan, getting from College Terrace across El Camino and the train tracks toget to Jordan, and then areas of North Palo Alto where you’ve got to cross Embarcadero, Middlefield, the train tracks and so on. We think that we will be able to accommodate a lot of these school commutes in ways that are effective for other people as well. Another important stakeholder group we went to was the business leaders. Another thing that is fortunate in Palo Alto is that your business districts are fairly dense and fairly well laid out. There are some challenges. There are clusters that are a long distance away from the train station. The East of Bayshore Office Park is certainly that way and much of the outer reaches of the Research Park is that way, but pretty much everything else falls on really strong corridors. That includes the whole San Antonio corridor which has about 4,500 employees just in this area. The Research Park which has about 25,000 employees basically the same daytime population of all of Stanford University and the Stanford Medical Center, and same density. The East of Bayshore Office Park has about 2,700 employees. Then finally the Downtown, the E1 Camino corridor, the Stanford Shopping Center. This map also shows areas of high density which were really critical in planning for this study. Transit planning is basically about serving the densest areas. As your density increases so does the effectiveness of transit. So it was very nice for us to find that your areas of density fell in nice discreet corridors as well. With all of this information in hand and keeping in mind that a number of key considerations. One, that we wanted to propose some short term immediate implementation shuttle routes that could be done now by the City acting alone, assuming funding were available. We wanted to look at routes that would not directly compete with VTA which might cause VTA ridership to plummet and for them to simply leave town taking all of their service hours with them. We wanted to look at routes that would focus on unserved or underserved areas. With all of that in mind we came up with five short term shuttle routing alternatives that I’d like to describe to you now. One is the City currently contributes to Stanford to run lunchtime shuttle from the main quad and the Medical Center to Lytton Plaza in Downtown Palo Alto. It is one of the Margurites most cost effective routes, very high ridership, people spending a lot of money in Downtown Palo Alto who otherwise would not be coming there. Currently that service does not extend beyond Emerson Street. It is running kind of like every 15-20 minutes now which is not very good for a lunchtime service where people have to get there and get back pretty quickly. So the first proposal that we came up with was to add another vehicle to that route, to be able to extend it the length of Downtown City of Palo Alto Page 34 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 and to be able to increase its frequency. It will certainly be successful. It is merely a question of whether it is worth the money or not. The next shuttle route and one of the more interesting ones is a new service that would begin-at the Downtown Train Station, serve the new Palo Alto Medical Foundation building, Palo Alto High School, the main library and art center area, and provide service for commuters in the East Baysho.re Office Park and then also an extension to the municipal service center on East Bayshore. This route is interesting to me because it serves people in both directions. It provides a connection for people coming from the train going to the East Bayshore Office Park, and it also provides service for Palo Alto residents living throughout North Palo Alto to get to the Downtown, the train station, the train, all the services that connect in here, and also for students living in all of this area to get to Palo Alto High School. We expect that service would definitely attract some riders. What level of ridership it would gain will depend largely on its frequency. A third ronte that we looked at was improvements to some of the existing services that are offered in the Stanford Research Park. There is an existing shuttle that is funded largely by Hewlett Packard called the Deer Creek Shuttle that makes four trips in the morning, four trips in the evening, plus some combination of the 88 and the 24 providing service in there. Our concept in the Research Park is that we find that there is clearly de~nand for more service there, for more frequent service, for service that is timed better with the trains, and also for some service during the mid-day of which there is pretty much nothing right now. The Research Park Shuttle would most likely be a partnership effort particularly with all the employers in the Research Park but ideally also with the VTA. It would involve looking at all the stuff that is going on in there and making sure we do something that works best for everyone. Similarly, in.the San Antonio corridor is a place where we identified a need for more transit service. VTA is already looking at improving service in that corridor and we need to work with them and with the existing shuttle services offered by Sun and [LaLau] to come up with an integrated concept for that area and market it as such. Finally, and the most interesting of all the proposals that we came up with was this sort of reddish route which we call a "City-wide circulator," which looks a little awkward on the map but accomplishes some really, really interesting origin/destination pairs. It starts in the Downtown, serves the senior center, Lytton Garden, Channing House, provides some service for the first time to the front doors of the main library and the art center which are very difficult to get to via transit for most people right now. It provides service to the front door of Jordan Middle School, goes to Mid-Town, then hits a portion of South Palo Alto that currently has no transit service. There are a bunch of fairly high density apartment complexes along Alma Street that have no access totransit right now. There is no way to get really close to them because you can’t stop a bus on Alma. Then there are creeks that prevent you from crossing on any of the streets in between Waverley and Alma. Getting running service on Waverley will provide some service well within a quarter mile walking distance from those residents throughout that part of South Palo Alto that is currently unserved. It wraps around this incredible walk that includes Mitchell Park, JLS, the Mitchell Library, the Mitchell Community Center, Stevenson House, and a bunch of other stuff. It provides some service closer to the Ventura neighborhood which is currently fairly underserved and is also relatively high density. Then it works its way into Barton Park for the first time. Barron Park has no transit City of Palo Alto Page 35 1 2 3 4 ~5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 whatsoever and it would also make connections to the [Truman] Center, the Jewish Community Center and at the school peak could go up to Gunn High School as well. I’ve already talked a little bit about who these routes serve but I’d like to go over this really quick!y. Using the City’s geographic information system we actually counted up the number of households and the number of employees within a quarter mile walking distance of bus stops along each shuttle line. As you can see, the Downtown express improvements, depending on the hours, will not serve very many of the Palo Alto residents except for people in the Downtown wanting to go to the Stanford Museum or Stanford University during lunchtime which may be very appealing for the people at Channing House, Lytton Gardens and the senior center especially who’s front doors it will serve. But it will serve up to 7.000 Stanford employees. The Embarcadero Road service runs within a quarter mile of 1,700 Palo Alto residents and serves 2,700 jobs. The Research Park shuttle serves about 950 people primarily in the College Terrace neighborhood and 25,000 jobs throughout the Research Park. The San Antonio Road shuttle serves 1,500 residents primarily in the big apartment buildings along San Antonio and 4,500 jobs. The City-wide circulator serves at least 7,000 people throughout the City and about 1,000 jobs depending upon how you calculate things. We then analyzed how each shuttle route meets the-City’s goals. None of them get excellent marks in every category. They are all pretty Nixed which is interesting. Depending upon the weight that you choose to place on each goal will help us to determine which routes should move forward first. Finally, and the big question is, how much will all of this cost? The short answer is a lot of money. Transit is not cheap. Stanford University spends over a million dollars a year running the Margurite. These shuttle routes could quickly get you up to that much and more. The Downtown express is one of the cheapest since it only runs for a couple of hours at lunch starting at $31,000, with the most expensive being running the City-wide circulator every ’15 minutes, seven days a week, all day, would cost you pretty much a million dollars for just that route. These numbers will vary depending upon your service day. You can have 15 minute service at peak and 30 minutes during the mid-day.. You can run some of the commuter runs only at peak and choose to omit all of the mid-day service. We’ll be working on how to interpret what these costs mean onc~ we start finalizing what kind of routes we really want to see. We also have begun to calculate ridership for each of these routes. Ridership calculation is more of an art than a science. We’ve applied the science and now we are sort of adjusting for the art. In general what we are finding is that the Research Park shuttle depending upon how it is shaped will probably be the most cost effective simply because it serves a ton of employees who are working pretty dam close to a train station. The Downtown express, the Embarcadero Road shuttle and the San Antonio Road shuttle will perform essentially the same as other Cal Train-like shuttles which is fine and about what typical transit services perform at. The City-wide circulator is the big challenge because when we estimated ridership for the Menlo Park mid-day shuttle it turned out to be less than one-third of what the actual ridership turned out to be. The Menlo Park mid-day shuttle which runs every 45 minutes in this incredibly circuitous route is aimed primarily at serving senior citizens and the buses are packed which we did not expect. So trying to find a way to get a better handle on what a service that connects so many important community services and a lot of fairly dense and fairly underserved neighborhoods will achieve is going to be hard to do. City of Palo Alto Page 36 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 3’3 34 35" 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 I think that is the end of our presentation and I’m sure you have a lot of questions. I’d be happy to entertain them. Chairman Byrd: Thank you Jeff. Questions for Staff at this point or should we go ahead and take some public comment and do the public the favor of allowing them to comment given the hour of the evening. I have four cards and if there is anyone else who wants to speak please fill out a card. The first card is from Scott Carlson to be followed by Jefferey Salsman. You have five minutes. Mr. Scott Carlson, 1295 Wilson Street, Palo Alto: Good evening Commissioners, Planning and Transportation. My name is Scott Carlson. I live at 1295 Wilson Street in the Community Center neighborhood. I’m also a member of the Community Center Neighbor’s Association Board. I’m not a member of the project advisory committee but I’ve read all of the papers that have been available to them including the draft working paper three that you have in the packet. I’m just here to speak briefly in favor of short term alternative number five which is the so-called City-wide circulator that was pointed out in the presentation. As you could tell from the written material, and I think from the presentation of the consultants, write enthusiastically about this route and I share that enthusiasm principally because of its neighborhood circulation. Specifically from for my neighborhood I think it would provide a needed north-south’access to some key facilities in the neighborhood which were mentioned in the presentation,~ the main library, the art center, but also a facility or community resource that really hasn’t been mentioned, or it may have been mentioned in the public workshop but it is not mentioned in the written material, and that is Rincinada Park itself. Things such as the brand new pool that we have in the park is a big traffic draw. As you may know, there is flo parking lot for that pool and a lot of the parking for the users of that pool use my neighborhood, not specifically my street, but my neighborhood as the parking lot for the pool." There are also nine tennis courts in Rincinada Park that sometimes draw sizable tennis tournaments. There are special events such as the City sponsored event that was held in the park on the Saturday before Easter. My point is that the park itself is a big traffic magnet and that if a service could draw off some of that traffic I and my neighbors would be delighted, I think. So in short, I am mainly echoing the report card that was briefly flashed to you that the consultants shared. On that report card this alternative number five received the second highest marks in terms of the prospect of meetings at least goals 1-4 that have been identified. I hope that you will give it, as the consultant said in the report, you’ll pursue that alternative and give it the thought that I think it deserves. Thank you. Chairman Byrd: Thank’ you Mr. Carlson. Jefferey Salsman to be followed by Rick Fe.rguson. Mr. Jefferey Salsman,: Yes, Chairman Byrd and members of the Commission, I’d first like to commend the Staff, the consultants and the advisory committee for I think a remarkably intelligent package that is going to be put before you and ultimately before the Council. I think this really addresses a lot of transportation needs in our community I’m really hopeful, I support the entire package. I think that the creation of a solid transportation network in the City offers the best opportunity for us to mitigate some of the problems caused by single occupant vehicles. I would like to speak particularly on behalf of the circulator one which impacts my neighborhood which is Barron Park. City of Palo Alto Page 37 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 There are a couple of things that this amazingly creative group can do. I grew up in New York and lived in Washington, D.C. for a long time and I’m a life-long user of public transit both for commuting and for other things. I think that this really does a lot to really thicken up the network and make transit a viable option for lots of people. It does several things in particular I think will behefit our neighborhood. One, it provides a really good viable alternative for moving kids to and from JLS and Gunn High School. Both of which create unacceptable traffic congestion right near those schools. I think it further adds to, by providing an additional option for getting kids to school, by reducing traffic will actually get a lot more parents to allow their children to bicycle to school. A lot of parents simply say, well there is too much traffic on the road, I’m not going to let my child bicycle in it. Then it becomes an endless loop of traffic and no bicycles. I, myself, am a bicycle rider. I actually commute by bicycle along the JLS corridor and it is a lousy commute in the morning. Anything that can be done to mitigate that will make a great contribution to the community. I also fully support the idea of providing a real transit alternative for people who don’t have cars. I look forward to the creation of this solid network that will really make, for more people who have the choice will find that transit is really a good option overall for the community. Thank you. Chairman Byrd: Thank you very much. Rick Ferguson to be followed by Ken Pullman. Mr. Rick Ferguson, 1037 Harker, Palo Alto: I could do Ken’s presentation to but...I’m Rick Ferguson, 1037 Harker, President of the Community Center Neighbor’s Association and I’m a member of the project advisory committee. I’m delighted to be here and thank you for attending tO this topic tonight. I want to talk about three things. First of all the process, second the maps, and third the iopic of. adaptability. I’m not a big fan of City consultants. I was delighted at this process. We’ve had terrific staff work, a terrific selection process for a consultant and terrific performance by the consultant. As a member of the advisory committee my hat is off to the gang here. Nice job. You should put great value on the staff work for this one. It is a great job. Secondly on the maps. In the packet that you have tonight there is a numbering system for the maps and the options. I think it is one through five. As a genera! proposition on behalf of the Community Center Neighbor’s Association we like one, two and five. One and two are easy options to choose. Five, the so-called City-wide circulator is again wonderfully inventive, creative, we like it. It is the big dollar item. It is the tough one for any public decision-maker to bite down on and say yes to. But it is exactly the right thing to do. It has all wonderful joys of deciding whether to commit ground troops, I guess. It is what I think most people’s concept of the shuttle is all about. It looks like the special events shuttle route. But it is the big dollar item. So I hope in your discussion~ tonight you’ll focus in on that tough issue and come out in favor of the City-wide circulator. As a way of mitigating perhaps some of the problems in voting yes and supporting the City-wide circulator I’d like to discuss a topic we talked about in the committee but it didn’t seem to bubble up into the papers tonight. That is the notion of adaptability or flexibility. A lot of times when ¯ City of Palo Alto Page 38 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 -18 19 2O 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 3O 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 4O 41 42 43 44 governments make decisions it’s as if we are carving statues for all time, for permanent sake. An investment in the shuttle routes is really an investment in staff and vehicles. But we really do have the option of changing the routes a little bit from time to time based on new information. So as we consider these routes, .keep in mind that it is not a terrifically difficult thing to change the routes based on actual experience over time. So making a commitment to the City-wide circulator does not mean that we’ve cast in concrete the City-wide circulator map for all time. It is not at all the case. In your final motion and final deliberations and the Council’s deliberations please build in this notion of adaptability. We don’t have to cast this in concrete. It is easy to adapt these routes. It is easy to reallocate the dollars from place to place, and bus to bus, and 15 minute slot to 30 minute slot. So build this concept of adaptability in. I think it makes all of the options go down a little bit easier when it comes time to talk about cost. I’m delighted with the process, delighted with the map options, and I hope you will be too, tonight. Thank you very much. Chairman Byrd: Thank you. The final card is submitted by Ken Pullman. If there are other members of the public who wish to address the Commission on this subject please fill out a card now. Mr. Ken Pullman, 884 Los Robles Avenue, Palo Alto: Good evening. I’m Ken Pullman. I live at 884 Los Robles Avenue in Barron Park. I wanted to speak in particular in favor of the City-wide circulator route. The current problem that we are facing in South Palo Alto is in the Charleston, East Meadow and Arastradero corridor. It really focuses on the bottlenecks at Charleston and Alma, and East Meadow and Alma. It is fairly common at commute hours to have to wait multiple lights to get across those intersections. In addition the intersections have been marked by’their fatalities in the past, two middle schoolers in the last ten years. All of that traffic was noted in making parents more nervous, there is more driving. And every one of those kids being driven to school is not just one car trip, it’s not just one student going. It is a parent going and coming back, and going and coming back again in the afternoon. In fact, it has gotten so bad that some parents I know have found that it is faster to go from that corridor up to Oregon Expressway, take that underpass, and come back down on Middlefield in order to make that drive. So a one mile commute becomes a three mile drive and it impacts the rest of the City. We’ve been hoping for many years that some kind of transit solution would address this and the Ci,ty-wide circulator hits this dead on. There are about 150 students that go from the Bah’on Park and South of Arastradero areas a~ross those three major traffic corridors, E1 Camino, the railroad and Alma to get to JLS. There are about another 100 that go across two of those major corridors to get to JLS. Those would all be served by this route. Coming from the other side, going to Gunn, there is about 600 students. So there is a huge market there. Obviously we are not going to get everyone to ride the bus but that is a large market to serve. Basically without doing this route, the residential areas of Palo Alto are hardly being served at all. One of the questions that comes up is, how should this be funded. In particular, should there be fares on the bus? A key thing to look at is who is benefiting here? One of the benefits is people being City of Palo Alto Page 39 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 3O 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 4O 41 42 43 44 able to get places that can’t drive or have problems driving. Obviously this is a direct benefit to them to have a shuttle but it is a benefit indirectly to the whole City to have people who otherwise can’t get around easily be able to be mobile again. But clearly the main beneficiary is everyone because by getting people out of cars you reduce the congestion, you reduce the pollution, we reduce the stress in everyone’s lives by making everything more predictable for everyone whether they are in a car or in a bus. Making the shuttle a free shuttle is just a beautiful idea. It really has very little to do with the amount of money that is involved which might be significant to some of the poorest people in Town, and there are some, or some of the seniors. But really it is about making it an attractive thing. A free shuttle has an attractiveness which is completely out of proportion to the monetary difference that we see her~. Another thing that has been suggested is that if there is going to be a lot of kids here that there should be monetary participation by the schools. It is really not a workable idea, I think. The schools have tight budgets and we have a bad history actually of school and City joint projects. The library being the most recent one. Really, this is a problem on City streets. There is a key thing that schools should do and that is that they should actively and creatively promote participation of their students on this shuttle. I should end here. Thank you. Chairman Byrd: Thank you very much. At this point we will close the public hearing and bring it back to the Commission to ask questions of Staff. Another option for us is to lay out a couple of subject matters that we want to discuss and ask our questions and wrap our discussion around each one. As we heard from Staff and the public I started making a list that included this issue of coverage versus productivity. The issue of where the routes should run. The issue of frequency or headways. Whether or not there should be a charge to riders. The issue of the overall project costs. I would invite others on that list. Maybe we could work our way through both’asking questions and discussing each one in turn. / Commissioner Beecham: Let me propose another way of going about it. I’ve got a question that I need to have answered before I can go to any of your issues. This would be actually following up on essentially every speaker tonight who have come to support this and they talk about why they support it. It is to mitigate the impact of the single occupancy automobiles, parking, traffic congestion, you Can’t go through intersections for three lights and so on. Nothing in the report tells me how those things are affected by what is proposed here. Without knowing that I’m not sure how you go forward and say which is the best option for us. M._£r. Co____~t: The key or variable in determining whether or not traffic volumes get/’educed, whether local service at intersections gets improved and how cost effective the service is of course is the extent to which people use it, the demand size. The consultant has not yet completed that work in a way that is satisfactory to us. We have preliminary numbers but the assumptions used we’re not particularly comfortable with at this time. We had hoped to have that for the Commission but it is much better in my opinion to present something we have faith in than to present something that is a first cut that we don’t have faith in. You are absolutely right, Mr. Beecham, that without a good and reliable measure of demand, of use, it is very difficult to make some judgments about benefits. City of Palo Alto Page 40 1 2 3 4 ,5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 Mr. Tumlin: If I may speak also to the congestion issue. We specifically did not want to make any promises about a transit system actually relieving congestion. A transit system alone cannot solve your congestion problems. In order to solve your congestion problems you need to provide alternatives to driving which the transit system does, but you also need to provide some limits to driving. So that as people move out of their cars you don’t just generate more trips from latent demand from people who wanted to drive but couldn’t for example find a parking space. So in order to actually reduce congestion in the City I would suggest that you need a more comprehensive program that looks at availability and cost of parking, at TDM programs among employers, a whole variety of other factors. Commissioner Beecham: I’m wondering out of all this and whatever Staffmay be soon developing whether or not there will be anything in the information that does come forward that will give any kind of a realistic measure of the impacts we can expect to see on reduced congestion, reduced parking requirements, etc. Is that going to be at all possible that we should expect that in the future. Mr. Kott: We can expect estimates of demand by route, varied by frequency, cost per rider, we know we have pretty good numbers on the cost for rtmning each one of the routes. We don’t have demand estimates. We can’t calculate cost per rider yet. I could tell you that in my view, it is unlikely that any of these routes would have a qhalitative, difference by themselves in levels of service at congested intersections. I think what Jefferey said about the problem of congestion being, because it is knotty problem, being one that is not susceptible to a single solution is correct. So the approach in the Comprehensive Plan is probably the best one. It is a multiple measure approach, improve biking and walking, making land use decisions that are so-called "smart growth," improved transit, improve travel demand incentives. The City will be engaged, we hope, in that in our commute coordinator position. Then over time make progress. But to expect any single measure to have a qualitative impact particularly when the inducements to drive so strong. In fact, a couple of the public speakers talked about the vicious cycle really, it is a downward spiral. The more unsafe the streets and roads are, the less clam traffic is, the less likely it is people will do anything but drive. It is a tremendous paradox but there it is. So that is a difficult one. But if we’re talking about numbers of people we should be able to show that in a reliable way and cost prr.rider. It becomes a policy, decision about whether this particular measure which in itself doesn’t solve one of the critical issues -- intersection congestion, whether that is worth it as a building block you might say, expecting other measures will be implemented and in total they will have that effect. Mr. Gawf: Joe, when we come back in late June or July we will have that information. At that time, I think, we will be asking you to make a recommendation on this subject which could include a recommendation on one, two or several routes. I think the purpose of tonight’s meeting is to really provide you with the information we’ve accumulated so far, give you the thought process, to get any reactions that you have about additional work that we need to do, so that when we do come back to again in late June/early July we have the information necessary to make that decision. Commissioner Burt: Just kind of a follow on to Bern’s comments. We’ve certainly heard that the number of passengers or passenger miles are a multiplier that we would use to try and determine the benefit and the cost effectiveness of the program. But what do we multiply it against? I would like City of Palo Alto Page 41 1 2 3 4 ,~5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 3O 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 to see if there are some models that have been used by other cities so that we don’t have to reinvent the wheel but that are doing some sort of a total cost assessment or total benefit assessment. Some of the benefits of taking transit or the shuttle might be able to be quantified and others are inherently very difficult to quantify. Some that had come to mind are the IRS gives a-thirty cent a mile.figure for the cost of driving. I don’t know what is an appropriate figure but those who take the shuttle are avoiding a personal expense of driving. We also have a major cost associated with Downtown parking, the new garages I think are $32,000 per space. So if we amortize that cost, how much per day would be avoided in cost for merchants if instead of building a new garage base they got a customer to liberate a space by taking the shuttle. We also have cars that have a moderately higher wear and tear on the street system and. higher demand for expansion of those key intersections. These may be small impacts and barely measurable but cumulatively it may matter. Then finally, environmentally we have the impact on water, air, noise, even solid waste that are all strongly impacted by individual cars. Our water system, our most sensitive pollutant is copper and the primary source is break pads. It’s a greater source of it than all our industry combined. Then we certainly have other benefits that are difficult to quantify, the quality of life amenity, the access for non-drivers, the congestion and sorts like that. I don’t know what models exist to be able to try to pull some of this together but to whatever extent that information is available I think it would be very beneficial. Chairman Byrd: Anyone else on the cost benefit issues they would like Staffto bring back answers to? If not, let me then move us on on that list I generated earlier. If I’ve missed something let me know. Commissioner Schrnidt: I was just going to comment that in the Staff report they’ve said some broader things to comment on the service planning goals, the scale of proposed short term service plan and implementation priorities, and the long range strategy to enhance transit services. The things that you were talking about were more detailed and maybe you want to talk about some of those bigger picture ones too. Chairman Byrd: I think some of them overlap. If we don’t cover it all let’s circle back. I heard Jeff suggest up front that one of the most dynamic tensions facing us is this choice between coverage and productivity. I think it would be of value, I hear Staff saying it would be of value, to them to get some feedback from us. What do we see the purpose of the system to be? Is it to provide universal coverage to residents and businesses throughout the City even on a low ridership basis? Or is it to serve the most productive corridors most efficiently? Or do we have some better balance to give to Staff?. Jon. Commissioner Schink: I would just say that the proposed routing alternatives that they are suggesting now seem to strike the right balance.. Commissioner Beecham: I think probably the popular way of looking at is a productive route is truly beneficial. The speakers hear hope to get something out of it. If it’s true then I think what Jon says is right in terms of the first two being productivity routes. As we get more information from Staff to say, okay what’s the impact on our City of that productivity. If it’s not measurable then I City of Palo Alto Page 42 1 2 3 4 ,5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 could be convinced fairly easily that we should focus on more flniform service because that’s got a clear benefit to our citizens if we can’t find a clear benefit to productivity basically. Commissioner Cassel: I think none of the alternatives presented to us on Map 5 really have low productivity routes. Low productivity routes are much of the 88 and a good portion of the 86. That’s what is going to bedevil us as to how we cover those kinds of areas. The lovely purple line here, the connector route that we are working with may have some low periods during the day but I sense that although we can’t have a school bus we are going to be pressed if we run these only every 15 minutes when schools start and stop. Their biggest disadvantage is going to be that there won’t enough of them if they only run every 15 minutes at that period of time. So I expect to see fairly heavy use of those at those times. Some of the transit times come earlier than that and later than that so what will happen with other people, I don’t know. The really low productivity ones are when you look at these little dotted lines that Come in the distance for that particular issue and we’ll be facing that more in the future as we work with the VTA on how to handle those lines. Commissioner Schmidt: I think indeed there is a great tension between the productivity and the coverage but I believe that the recommendation to try to balance them is a reasonable and the right way to go with the short term. I know any additional information that we get on cost benefit is likely to look like any of these. It is fairly crstly. Probably not an extension of the Margurite but I think we knew that to start out with. Part of this is to show that indeed we are doing something about transit alternatives and it is partially promoting the use of transit alternatives and think, okay, now we actually have something and getting people to think about getting out of their cars. Joe was saying we’ve just got this ever downward tending spiral and we’ve got to do whatever we can to start getting it going the other way. And it Will a system of many pieces and this can be a clear first step. I think that the balance will, if we can do all or most of those initial routes, will be a win for getting people to think about getting out of their cars. Commissioner Bialson: I think some of the cost/benefit analysis is hard to apply here because I see some of the benefits being so intangible. Ridership is one measure of productivity. I see something like the City-wide circulator adding to the things that pull the community together. I think that riding on the bus to school is great. I see the interplay of sort of commuting together, taking bus trips to various parts of the City, having individuals feel as if the City is not divided between a North Palo Alto and a South Palo Alto are very. intangible positives. As we speak of what values we want to see in this I think we have to keep our eye on the intangible values. While it is very easy to look at the most productive routes as those we would take on initially, I think we have to look at the City- wide circulator as something that really addresses what make Palo Alto special. And what may not seem all that productive initially but as people get used to seeing that bus circulating throughout the City ridership will build up. I assume it will build up over time. That will not be as dramatic as the initial impact of the other routes. I see that we need that to recognize the value of the circulator. Chairman Byrd: I want to build on both Annette and Kathy’s comments and sort of speak to the coverage issue. I understand the bottom line sensibility of productivity but I think at this stage of the development coverage may actually be more important but for a more subtle reason. Which is that part of the purpose of launching the shuttle is to build a constituency in favor of increased City of Palo Alto Page 43 1 2 3 4 .5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 investment in transportation and in the sort of land use decisions that support transit. From that perspective, which is more intangible, the appropriate early investment will in the long mn pay greater returns. I think a really sound analogy is to recycling. As someone who spent years and years trying to promote recycling I can tell you that it wasn’t just to reduce the waste stream.- It was to get people to walk to the bin and throw in the bottle in order to change their value system. We’re talking about changing people’s value systems as a precursor to changing their pattern of transportation behavior. We won’t do that if we only run up and down the most efficient corridors. So specifically, I would encourage us to look, and I’m sure perhaps you’ve done this, but the route that you propose for the City-wide circular here leaves out the outer reaches, the 86 and the 88 issue, but it also leaves out what in my mind is sort of the heart of the City, the Waverley/Bryant axis. Just as Middlefield is sort of the middle between Alma and 101 I sort of think of Waverley or perhaps Bryant as the middle between Middlefield and Alma. I would love to ~ee some sort of service up and down that heart of the community party to reduce trips but also for this values based reason. I want residents of that area to see the shuttle going by. It might even encourage them take it. Can you give us a little bit of background if it exists on the thinking around serving that. Mr. Tumlin: There used to be service the entire length of Waverley. That was the 84 line which VTA discontinued because of very low ridership. It is understandable why it ran from Downtown out Waverley. There is not much just ~n Waverley itself. It goes through some of the lowest density housing in the City. So we tried to think about where are people really trying to go and how can we structure a route so that they will serve multiple purposes. People may have to walk up to a quarter mile but lets try to get them exactly where they want to go. So in order to serve this Professorville, University South area that is what the Embarcadero Road service is for. Where do those people want to go in that neighborhood? They will want to get to Downtown and all the stuff that is in Downtown. Then just kind of a scattering of other places. In order to get to some of the important community facilities, this takes them right up here to the main library, and then it also allows for transfers. We are assuming that in our ideal future there is going to be really frequent service on Middlefield. So getting to your core frequent lines which are El Camino, Middlefield and all the stuff that is at the Downtown Train Station were our most important goals.. Chairman Byrd: I’m not suggesting that a modification be made that would leave out the City Center neighborhood, Lucy Stem and all that. I also don’t think it is our role to sit up here and micro- manage the development of the map. All I’m suggesting is there may be a way for example to run the City circulator A and B and one curves out and one goes. straight. Mr. Tumlin: I think the real answer is, as G~il said earlier, this is the first step. The first very small, teeny-weeny step in what should be a much larger process that involves VTA. The 86 and the 88, Gail was a little too kind to them saying they only performed fairly well, they perform very poorly. The perception that they are running around empty is not entirely untrue. I think that both VTA and the City would benefit in looking at the entire system and figuring out how we can reallocate service hours and how we can split service hours between stuff the VTA does and stuff that the City does. Or something that a partnership between (he two would do. We’ve come up with some long term routing concepts that try to get out that directly and provide frequent service to every neighborhood while still striking the coverage versus intensity balance, kind of in the middle but a little on the City of Palo Alto Page 44 1 2 3 4 ,5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 intensity side. Chairman Byrd: We have sort of seguead here from the tension between coverage and productivity into the routes themselves. Do other Commissioner’s have specific feedback for Staff at this point on any of these five routes? Commissioner Burt: Just one question on the circulator roate, it misses the YMCA. Is that unavoidable or you’re trying to cover JLS, or is there some other reason? Mr. Tumlin: We were trying to keep it as tight as possible. We really struggled with that one because we didn’t want it to take three hours to get from one neighborhood to another destination. That block around Mitchell Park is such an incredible attractor that it was hard to hit the stuff that is on Meadow and also get up to the YMCA. The YMCA is on Ross, isn’t it? Commissioner Cassel: Right, it is not where you have it dotted here, it is farther over. It is over where the ’C’ so it is farther away from Middlefield Road. Mr.-Tumlin: Yes, that’s right. It’s up on Ross. So getting up there and then getting back down towards Barron Park. " Ms. Likens: Jefferey, maybe I can add also in looking at the existing services that in this scenario were maintaining existing VTA services for the short term plan, there is service relatively within two blocks going east and west on Middlefield and Lewis. This route was to fill in areas that are undetserved. Jefferey made a point of saying a quarter mile is within walking distance of the Y from Middle field where we now have half hour service we’d like to see VTA increase that to 15 minute frequency. So really, this circulator doesn’t address the needs of the community that is east of Middlefield as well as could be done. We looked at this route starting out with the shuttle route which really does serve Lewis and kind of comes back along Waverley and makes the big loop and we took the best parts of that shuttle route that were really areas that were underserved currently. So in our next phase, working with VTA, hopefully we can address that issue. Chairman Byrd: ,Any other comments on these routes? Commissioner Schmidt: A question. You brought up the idea of not wanting it to take too long. Can you say approximately how long it would take on the circulator route to go from Truman to Downtown, almost the full length of it. Mr. Tumlin: I knew somebody was going to ask me that question. I think in my brief case I’ve got actual schedules for each one of these. Commissioner Schmidt: Just a rough estimate. Mr. Tumlin: I haven’t the slightest idea. I can get that to you after the meeting. City of Palo Alto Page 45 1 2 3 4 ¢5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 Commissioner Schmidt: Okay, we’ll see those numbers at a later date. Mr. Tumlin: Yes. Commissioner Cassel: One of the concerns that I’ve had been the difference between serving employers on the circulator route. On particular employer routes the one that goes San Antonio to San Antonio Station, I think in the long term plans in terms of general congestion that’s important but I doubt that it serves an awful lot of people who live in Palo Alto. There isn’t a stop on San Antonio Road or there is only one going one direction and not the other. So although we have some fairly dense housing in there it isn’t set up to be able to make stops at this time at least. It is extremely important of course, as you mentioned, to work with VTA on how to do this route that’s called "improved Deer Creek shuttle." Most of the people who use the 88 in that section do not pay. They get a pass because they are making transfer. Mr. Tumlin: They are Cal Train passes. Commissioner Cassel: They’ve got their Cal Train pass so that may help a lot of that issue. You may not shift people whether they use that free shuttle or theirs it probably wouldn’t make a difference. But those buses that run in the rush hour at the end of the day that are now running maybe at least every 15 minutes, because you can pick up either the 24 or the 88 or the Deer Creek one, they are fairly full at that time of day. They may not be as full in the morning for the very reason that I don’t take it in the morning, and that it is that the time between crawling out of bed and getting to work tends to be .tighter than your time for getting off from work home, in terms of your desire to get there. So the time to take the bus to work seems to hurt more. To get a ride from someone seems to be easier in the morning than it does in the afternoon. I think the same is tree for the kids. Parents drop their kids off at school on their way to work but then in the afternoon then they can get a bus home because it’s an odd time and their parents aren’t out of work. So working with the VTA on that is important. The route that you now have doesn’t take anyone from the Stanford Shopping Center and have any way to connect through into where the 88 goes to along Lewis and Greet. So without it there is a big gap that you can’t transfer across. There may be no need for that. You go from the VA Medical Center and you need to get around to Greer. Without the 88 you can’t do it on this system Mr. Tumlin: Oh, right. All of this presumes that the existing systems would stay. That is important to make it work. Commissioner Cassel: But trying to work some other system out which is really, really important I think with the 88. I think one thing to sure you’ve done it here, and we have to keep working it is, these crossing mechanisms for getting, I keep wanting to call them bridges but if I do that someone will think we have a bridge, crossing the E1 Camino, train, Alma lines. We have only five ways to get across those as everyone in this room is aware of. There is a tendency to want to worry about the north-south routes but crossing those are so difficult when you need transit. I really needed transit this year, as far as travel was concerned, being temporarily disabled. Getting across town was very difficult. I’ve been on most of these runs except the 86 and know what it is like to take a bus. City of Palo Alto Page 46 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 And how easy it is to get back to taking a car. I promised myself I would continue to take that bus once a week and I haven’t done it. That’s not good. Chairman Byrd: Anything else on this route map? Commissioner Butt: Yes. Jefferey, are there other opportunities to expand the Margurite system and utilize that? Specifically the route that is proposed for California Avenue up into the Stanford Industrial Park which serves Stanford property? Mr. Tumlin: We started looking at riding options. We did it divorced from the notion of who would be running them. The City could contract with the Margurite, with Stanford, to have it simply be an extension of the Margurite. Any or all of them. You do it yourselves, you could have employers do them, you could have VTA do them. It depends upon what your goals are and what your funding mechanisms are. There is some complexity in extending the Margurite in that one of the greatest successes of the Margurite is that it is very carefully timed to meet all the trains.. It is really hard to do timed transfers along the mid-point of your line. It is easier to do it at an end point. So running through service, through a train station, for example, extending the line A which is Stanford’s most productive route, ~eyond the train station and into Palo Alto will be complex for Stanford because of that time transfer. I can be done and there may be good reasons to do that but there also may be good reasons to simply pulse services in and out of the train station, all of them timed to meet the trains. But all the buses arrive at the same time, people can go to their trains, people can scramble from bus to bus and then head off in their various directions. That sort of an operation takes away a lot of the pain that is caused by transfers. Does that answer your question? Okay. Chairman Byrd: Let me move us on to this issue of frequency. Jeffput up two, in his budgetslide he showed 30 minute headways and 15 minute headways. Do Commissioner’s have any feedback on this subject of frequency of service? Commissioner Cassel: Well, the more the merrier. The more you use it the more apt you are going to be to use it. It really means a lot. If it is going to take you an extra half hour to. get to work in th+ morning you are going to fmd another way to get there. If that 35 ran every 15 minutes I think you’d have more people on the 35 or every bus than you do know because you would be depending on it more easily. You miss it, you’re half an hour late for work. Sometimes it comes early. Commissioner Beecham: I agree with Phyllis. If we are going to do this we need to do what we can to make it successful. One of the big detriments ofridership is lack of dependable speed. So they need to know they are going to get to where they are going on time, not risk missing something you are meeting, a train or whatever else. So more rapid service is I think warranted. Commissioner Schink: I was just going to add the only thing I know about this is what I would myself. I wouldn’t wait 30 minutes but I would 15, for whatever it is worth. Chairman Byrd: Jon, I actually don’t think you’d wait 15. I’m not sure 15 works. I was just in Boulder, Colorado earlier this month which has one of the best local jitney services in the county City of Palo Alto Page 47 1 2 3 4 ,,5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 and the headways are 6 minutes. It means you can walk out of your hotel or your home knowing that you will almost assured to see the bus coming down the street. I think 15 minutes is too long. I would rather see, in a world of budget constraints, fewer routes. I would rather only do three or four routes and have more frequent, 6, 8 10 minute headways on the routes that we do serve as opposed to spreading ourselves too thin with 15 minute headways. Especially in Silicon Valley where everybody is in a hurry. I don’t think people are going to stand there very long to take the shuttle. Commissioner Bialson: I just want to express my absolute support for what Owen just said. Having been a rider of the public transit system in New York City, got used to very frequent headways. Also recently having been in Aspen, Colorado their City-wide shuttle system works perfectly and I think it also had a 6 minute wait. I don’t recall standing at a bus stop and not seeing a bus come towards.. me. Commissioner Beecham: I certainly agree that the quicker it is the more ridership you get. I’d be curious to find out if you can also provide us any kind of data to tell us how much it improves with those increased in frequency. Mr. Tumlin: The demand increases on" a curve with frequency. 15 minutes is basically the outside limit at whi.c.h,, you can attract significant numbers of people who can get there in some other way. It is the ~c~d~i’ule where it is a frequency where you can give up actually having a schedule in your hand and show up at the bus stop. The bus will be there in an average of every 7.5 minutes and you .will often times literally be able to see the bus coming. Every 15 minutes is about what Stanford runs’right now and it is right there at the cusp. Every 15 minute service is not useful for short trips, for errand running, for trips of a short distance, or to pick up something really quick. It is useful for commuting, it is certainly useful for meeting trains given the infrequent train service that we are dealing with. One thing that we can do is in really dense areas like the Downtown we can bring a number of different lines together on to the same street so that when they come together and overlap, if you bring two routes running every 15 minutes together on to the same street, you can run service every 7.5 minutes during the stretch that they overlap. That’s something we’ve kind of looked at in some of the longer term routing proposals. It depends upon how you schedule. Commissioner Bialson: It seems from what you’ve said and just observation from being a rider that having a route that we call upon a 30 minute headway is rather counter productive. So I agree with Owen that I’d rather see us put our resources into those routes that we can have at least a 10-15 minute headway than going to too spread out a plan that necessitates longer headways. Mr. Tumlin: One argument in favor or less frequent headways, our experience in Menlo Park really was a big surprise to me. We did this incredibly convoluted senior shuttle route that nms during the mid-day for several hours. It takes a long time to get from one end of the route to the other. It is like 45 minutes. We decided to run it every 45 minutes which is the most awkward kind of schedule to have because you can never remember, it’s not like it runs and 11:03 and 12:03, but because it serves so many important community functions and because we distributed schedules, multiple copies of schedules to everyone along the route it is actually getting terrific ridership. Buses are packed. City of Palo Alto Page 48 1 2 3 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 There are types of routes where it will make sense to have less frequent service. If you’ve got a really dense corridor and you are really trying to get people out of their cars and you have a lot of money to spend, yes, every 6 minutes is really great. People will love it, and you’ll have packed buses. Chairman Byrd: Let’s move on to the final subject of cost and see if we can give any useful feedback on the funding analysis, the issue that was raised by the public around whether or not there should be a fare charged to the riders or anything else on financial issues. Commissioner Bialson: I agree that there should be no fare charged. I think the complexity of having cash handling mechanisms just outweighs any amount you can derive from ridership that has to pay. I think that there is a large psychological hurdle. So I’d rather see us go with a free shuttle initially. Especially since we don’t know what the reception of the community will be to certain usage of the shuttle. I really would see it as being free. Commissioner Beecham: I certainly agree with that. Also, being free is removing one impediment to more ridership. Mr. Tumlin: Anybody want to argue ~n favor of 75 cents? Commissioner Cassel: What’s weird is that while you are absolutely correct, the psychologically you start out at free and people are going to take it. The subsidized systems we have are so cheap it is amazing that more people don’t take it and use it. I think it was $35.00 for a month pass for the bus and it goes anywhere in Santa Clara County. I don’t know what the fee is now for the transit system but the train and bus passes, when I took it it was $45.00, I don’t know what it is now. But it was still every train and bus iia Santa Clara County and any train you wanted to take to San Francisco on the weekend. Yet we won’t pay it but we’ll pay the gas prices at the gas station. It is weird. Chairman Byrd: Anything else on financial issues at this point? Any other comments back to Staff?. Commissioner Burt: I’m sorry, still just on the funding I found the matrix in the staff report on funding alternatives to be very informative and encouraging. It presents a lot of opportunities that I didn’t realize were there and hopefully enough of them are viable that we’ll get some adequate funding. Any thought in general, Ed, in the funding opportunities and whether these five routes or design, is this something that we think we have a good chance of having ongoing funding that could come about? Mr. Gawf: Joe, add to this if I miss something. I think that is going to be the focus of our effort over the next six weeks or so. To try to craft together some proposal that is "doable." Doable in achieving the kinds of things that you talked about tonight but also financially we have the wherewithal to do it. Mr. Kott: Yes, I certainly agree. There is one bit ray of hope that Jefferey has pointed out earlier in the study. The shuttle system in Emeryville near Oakland is very successful and I believe there City of Palo Alto Page 49 1 2 3 4 ,,5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 is either very low or zero public subsidy now. It is funded mainly by developers and employers. For those of you who are familiar with Emeryville, that’s a place where there is just a lot of commercial activity and not many residents. Ms. Likens: I can also add that one opportunity that is coming up is through the air district for transportation funds for clear air funds, the TFCA funding which is the source of funding for the Cal Train shuttles. We certainly are an eligible applicant either for the regional funds which the applications are due in June or the local funds which are administered by the CMA-DTA Congestion Management Program and the applications will come due next January. Those funds are for Cal Train related shuttles which serve the Cal Train routes and meet the trains with time transfers. A condition of those funds if that you cannot charge a fa~e. So that is one of the issue with that funding source but that is a very likely funding source for our initial shuttle. Mr. Gawf: IfI could just add one more comment on the funding issue. That is anticipating that we would want to do something or at least try and preserve that opportunity, the Staffdid propose in the departmental budget a certain amount of money for assisting the shuttle system starting fiscal year July lsto So the Council will review that in May and I think it is $250,000. So it is a significant amount of money that we are proposing and I think it supported by the City Manager. Commissioner Bialson: Just a general comment and hopefully in closing, I make two observations. I think it is very important that the Staffmake City Council and the public of Palo Alto aware that this is not meant to relieve congestion problems and impact at intersections. A lot of people love the idea of public transit because they want everybody else on the road to start using public transit and allow them to have an easier commute. I think we will not serve the community or the Council well unless we really hit hard on the fact that this is not intended for that. We" can’t give them any predictions or figures about that. I think if we do that we have to have a little bit of faith in the community. I truly do believe that if we build it, they will come. Commissioner Schmidt: A couple of general comments too. I think in addition to what Annette is saying, if we build it we also ha;ce to tell people about it a lot. I know we talked about educating people in-several areas of the Comprehensive Plan and I think this is one that will need some publicity to get people started using it. I was happy to hear a member of the advisory committee be very happy with the process and the consultant, and the public outreach. We just talked about making transportation a more public process and you are already doing that. It appears that that is r~ally working and indeed I think the whole presentation, the thoroughness of what was done, admittedly there is some more work to do in the cost/benefit areas, and there will always be more questions that will be asked, but I think what has come before us is a real thorough look at a difficult subject here. Thank you. Commissioner Schink: I just wanted to close by complimenting the consultants, Staff and the public for their comments. The presentation tonight was one of the best organized thorough presentations that I’ve seen here at the Planning Commission in a long time. It made our job easier and it made it easier to sort of understand an obviously tough issue. It is encouraging to hear that you have City of Palo Alto Page 50 1 2 3 4 .5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 brought a number of the public along in the process too and that they are very complimentary. So thank you. Chairman Byrd: I want to add a brief concluding comment. Annette was so right on when she said that if we sell as a congestion reduction program we are going to have a lot of angry people and the system will ultimately fail. The flip side of that is if that’s not how we are going to sell it, how will we sell it? She is right that some people want people to get out of the way so they can drive faster. I think the message here is that this will enable you, the resident or employee, to get out of your car and drive less and that will give you a better life. If we speak to that I think we will create expectations that the system can meet. So let’s avoid the pitfall that Annette identified and try to sell this thing in terms that people can hear. I too, just want to echo what was said. This was a terrific presentation. This Commission and the Council and the community have talked itself blue about starting a shuttle and it is just so exciting to finally see the details emerge. We’ll look forward to it coming back. That will be sometime in June or July? Ms. Furth: I believe your meeting is June 30th. Chairman Byrd: Thank you very much. 23 24 25 26 27 One Mr. Gawf: Yes, we had one item scheduled for was the continuation of the Lucky’s store expansion. They have meeting. That that City of Palo Alto Page 51