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HomeMy WebLinkAbout1996-05-28 City Council (17)TO: City of Palo Alto HONORABLE CITY COUNCIL FROM:CITY MANAGER DEPARTMENT:UTILITIES AGENDA DATE: MAY 28, 1996 CMR:281:96 SUBJECT:Review of Work Plan of Theodore Barry and Associates (TBA) for an organizational review of the Utilities Department REOUEST This report transmits to the Council the work plan approved by the Utilities Advisory Commission (UAC) for an organizational review of the Utilities Department by Theodore Barry and Associates, and requests Council input directly to the consultant on any additional utilities operations issues to ensure they are being addressed. RECOMMENDATIONS Staff recommends that Council review the attached work plan from Theodore Barry and Associates (TBA) along with the comments made by the Utilities Advisory Commission (UAC) regarding the work plan and provide the consultant with any additional comments which should be included in the Work Plan. POLICY IMPLICATIONS This Work Plan does not represent any change to existing policies. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Council approved the contract with Theodore Barry and Associates for the Utilities Organizational Review at the March 11, 1996 meeting. The contract required that TBA develop a proposed work plan, present it to the UAC and give the City Council an opporttmity to discuss with the consultant their concerns with the Utilities’ operations to insure that those issues are being addressed in the review. The Work Plan was.reviewed, discussed and approved at the UAC meeting of April 3, 1996. Sections from that meeting pertaining to the discussion are attached to this CMR. The next step in the process is for the consultant to meet with the Council. CMR:281:96 Page 1 of 2 FISCAL IMPACT There is no fiscal impact. ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT The Council finds that this project will have no significant environmental impact. ATTACHMENTS Exhibit "A" Work Plan from TBA Exhibit "B" Minutes from the UAC meeting of April 3, 1996 PREPARED BY: Rosemary Ralston, Utilities Administrator DEPARTMENT HEAD APPROVAL: CITY MANAGER APPROVAL: Manager CMR:281:96 Page 2 of 2 City of Palo A!to Utilities Advisory Commission Item I. 2. Wednesday, April 3, 1996 City. Council Conference Room MINUTES Roll Call ~2 Oral Communications .....................2 o Approval of Minutes: March 6, 1996 ..............2 Agenda Review and Revisions .................2 Consent Calendar .......................2 o Unfinished Business a. b. do ..................... 34 Information Report, Copper Piping Corrosion .......34 Information Report, Update on Discharge Standards for the Regional Water Quality Control Plant ..................18 l.Ten-Year Financial Forecast Update ..........36 2.Information on Rate Increase to Augment the Calaveras Reserves .............47 3.Information on Calaveras County Agreement with NCPA ...................55 FY 1996-97 DSM Program Recommendations .........56 Quarterly Electric Issues’Update ............64 New Business .........................2 a.Meeting with Organizational Review Consultant, TB&A .....................2 8.City Council Referrals ....................66 o Reports of Officials/Liaisons ................66 a. NCPA ...........’ .......66 b. BAWUA ...........................66 i0.Next Meeting: May i, 1996 ..................66 iio Adjournment .........................66 250Ham~tonAvenue.Palo~to.94301 ~415.329.2277F~415.321.0651 Chairman Johnston called the .meeting to order at 7:30 p.m. in the Council Chambers, 250 Hamilton Avenue, Palo Alto, California. Item i. Roll Call. PRESENT: Commissioners Chandler, Eyerly, Grimsrud, Johnston ABSENT: Commissioner Sahagian COUNCIL MEMBER PRESENT: None Item 2. Oral Communications - None. Item 3. Approval of Minutes of March 6, 1996 Meeting Chairman Johnston: I have one correction I would like to make on Page 24, Item 6.b. The first large paragraph, which was attributed to me, was actually made by Jane Ratchye, so I would like the minutes to reflect that Ms. Ratchye delivered that paragraph. MOTION:Commissioner Grimsrud: I move approval of the minutes. SECOND:By Commissioner Eyerly. MOTION PASSES: Chairman Johnston: All those in favor~ say aye. All opposed? That passes unanimously on a vote-of 3-0 with Commissioners Chandler (temporarily) and Sahagian absent. Item 4. Agenda Review and Revisions Chairman Johnston: I want to propose a couple of changes in the agenda. For Item 7.a. involving the organizational review, I would like to bring that forward after Item 5. I would like to interchange Items 6.a. and 6.b. The second change is at the request of Glenn Roberts, who felt that the order would be more appropriate that way, in that they are both related topics. Item 5. Consent Calendar - Nothing Item 7.a. Meeting with Organizational Review Consultant, TB&A Chairman Johnston: I would like to welcome the consultants here tonight for the organizational review. We will turn it over to the TB&A people who have some materials prepared. MINUTES UAC: 04/03/96 Final Page 2 Tom Resh: I will be the engagement director for the project I am with Theodore Barry and Associates (TB&A) With me this evening from Resource Management International (RMI), the firm with which we are teaming on this study, is Ron Oechsler, Harold Morgan, and from TB&A, we have Duncan Ross and Tim Szybalski. These gentlemen and myself will be some of the key people involved in the study. There are others from both of our firms who will also .be involved. A little into the presentation this evening, we can go over the roles of the various individuals. With that as an introduction, let me begin by saying thank you to the UAC and to the Blue Ribbon Panel for selecting the team of TB&A and RMI to do the study. We look forward to performing it, and we are prepared to get started immediately. What we have put together for .......... .................................. this evening is a brief presentation of our work plan. One of the reasons I asked all of us to come to.this meeting tonight was to actually hear from all of you regarding any specific policy issues or directions that you might wish to share with us as we launch into the study. So I certainly want to make that part of the agenda and are looking for your input. We recognize that the study is being done for the UAC, and we want to make sure we maintain open lines of communication. As you will see, we have planned a lot of our work around the milestones of these meetings. Commissioner Grimsrud: I’have a quick question for you. Did you get a chance to see any of the minutes or discussions about people’s comments on the proposal and presentation? Mr. Resh: No, I have not seen any of the comments or minutes. We did get via Rosemary Ralston some of the questions that were raised, and I gave her some feedback information on that. Commissioner Grimsrud: There was some discussion that might have been of interest to you in preparation for this meeting.I was just wondering if any fee,dback had gotten back to you. Mr. Resh: Yes, I did from Rosemary. First, I would like to go over the work plan briefly. There are several different levels of the work plan’ that are included in this handout. -One gets into quite a bit of detail on the specific tasks. We do not plan on discussing that this evening. We want to review with you the work plan p~etty much as outlined in our proposal, and now it has been fine tuned to match the schedule for the project. I want to MINUTES UAC:04/03/96 Final Page 3 specifically go over the first four initial tasks to make sure you are comfortable with the direction we are going to take with those. Then we will takequestions that you may have. I would ask the team members to bring to our attention anything I may have missed or that needs further elaboration. To briefly review the scope’and objective of the study, the objective is to review how the department is organized, determine if the utility is performing at a high level of efficiency and effectiveness in providing responsive.and reliable service as expected by the customers, covering the electric, gas, water and wastewater parts of the operation. The scope includes the utilities organization, the general administration, administrative services, customer operations, the distribution parts of the business -- water, gas and electric -- and the collection side -- wastewater. Resource management is the supply and demand side of the business, also to review the interface with services that are provided from other city departments and the Joint Action Agencies, and to review the EIA forms, which will be an important part of some of our benchmarking work. That briefly covers the objective and scope. It is pretty much as you had outlined in the Request for Proposal and as we included in our proposal to you. As for our overall approach to this study, on a study of this nature, we typically break it down into different phases. The phase that you really contracted with us to perform is Phase I, a management study, which includes reviewing the opportunities for improvement, the performance of the utility, and to develop a detailed improvement plan. The actual implementation phase springs from that and will be the work undertaken by the utility department to actually implement our recommendations. One of the things that both of our firms are very cognizant of are that anything that comes out of our operational review certainly has to be implementable. We bring that kind of operational focus, so as we are developing recommendations for the utility, we will .be keeping in mind that they must be practical and implementable. The next slide shows our overall organization and represents most of the people that are here this evening. I do want to point out two changes in this chart which we submit for your approval relative to a couple of changes we have had in personnel since our original proposal. On the RMI side, under Customer Expectations, we have inserted the name of David Ulm of RMI. Ron will address the nature of that change. MINUTES UAC:04/03/96 Final Page 4 Ron Oechsler: In our proposal, we had earmarked Dr. Betsy Ailen to lead the Customer Expectations portion of the project. As we indicated in our proposal, it could be done through the conduct of focus group interviews or individual interviews with the city’s customers. It could include the largest customers or a cross-section of perhaps of some of the large commercial users, as well. In our proposal, we are substituting Mr. David Ulm for Dr. Ailen, who is no longer with RMI. David comes with long experience in working with publicly owned utilities. He was manager of corporate performance for the Salt River Project and also at Salt River, he was the project manager for a strategic review of all of their operations. In that context, he led a strategic planning team and conducted extensive focus group interviews and other tools to evaluate the performance of the SRP, which is one of the largest publicly owned utilities in the southwest. David comes well qualified, and we are very confident that his addition will mean a strengthening of the team. Mr. Resh: The other change I want to bring to your attention for your approval is on the organization side of the chart. You will see that under the heading VCM Analysis the name of Duncan Ross for TB&A. Duncan is here this evening. It is our recommendation that we replace Richard Lamb, who was i~ our original proposal. There are a couple of reasons for that. First of all, Duncan just moved to the bay area from our New York office, so he will provide a local person for the team. Also, Duncan is a manager with our firm. Richard Lamb was an associate. We are prepared, however, to honor all of the rates as included in the proposal and substitute a more experienced individual, but still bill at the associate rate for Duncan’s involvement. Duncan also brings more experience in organizational reviews and our VCM process, so we think he is an excellent addition to the team and will provide a lot of value to the city for the study. Mr. Morgan: May I point out one other detail? My name is Harold Morgan, and it shows Gas/Water/Waste Water by my name. I am only going to be involved with water and waste water, and Ron. Oechsler will be doing the analysis on the gas system. It is a minor detail that I wanted to point out. Mr. Resh: We would be happy to provide the detailed resumes on these changes. I have not provided those, as yet, to Rosemary who has been coordinating all of this information. Another thing I might mention is that Duncan is an undergrad from Stanford University. I don’t know if that is a plus or not! So he has the four years of ties to the City of MINUTES UAC:04/03/96 Final Page 5 Palo Alto, and probably influenced him a little in getting him to move back to the bay area. With those changes, what I would like to do now is turn this over to Tim Szybalski to briefly run through our work plan, and then I will wrap it up with a few additional comments about our schedule. Mr. Szybalski: Thank you, Tom. The first slide is intended to show that the overall work plan is designed t0 give you some input into ~he process so that you can effectively manage the scope of the study. Our Step I is really to kick off the project, to make various data requests and do a high level diagnostic, basically the first look at the organization relying upon some benchmarking data to identify potential areas for improvement. At the end of that stage, we would come back to this forum and say, these are the focus areas we recommend looking at. The second stage is a more detailed analysis, once we agree upon the scope of the effort. We will be doing additional analyses in all of the key areas and come back with descriptions of findings in each of those areas. Step III is the final report and implementation plan which again gives you a chance to look at and question it and influence the final report and implementation. As the organization chart suggested, there really are two parallel efforts. The first is the organizational review itself, and it has three tasks. These will all be going through the same kind of steps in the overall plan. One of the tasks will be competitive benchmarking, and basically, we will be comparing a panel of utilities against the performance of this organization, both on gas, water and electric. We have found that to be a very quick and efficient way to screen areas to focus attention. So we will be doing competitive benchmarking. Tom will be talking a little more about that. Value-centered management is a way to get at some of the less measurable things, particularly what staff groups do, and look at some of the products and services and value-creating in some of those staff departments. Then finally, there will be the organizational analysis. We will be looking at responsibilities, staffing levels, work flows and reporting relationships, as well as just how the knowledge, information, responsibility and rewards flow through the organization, plus any recommended organizational changes. The parallel chart is what the RMI team is going to concentrate upon, with the exception that Harold will w~rk on the benchmarking side of MINUTES UAC:04/03/96 Final Page 6 water, as’well. Basically, it will be a review of the strategies for meeting competitive threats, analysis through focus groups of customer service expectations, and looking at customer retention programs. So those are the key phases or steps that the project will be going through and the key tasks that will be performed. Tom will talk a little more about the schedule and how we propose to work with you to accomplish those tasks. Mr. Resh: This is an overall bar chart schedule of how we see the project unfolding. There is the kickoff meeting tonight, and we envision completing the final presentation no later than the October 2 meeting. The next slide indicates some specific milestones. We h~ve planned these milestones around our understanding of your scheduled meeting dates over the next several months. So tonight we are looking for approvals of our basic approach to ’the project. On May i, we plan on furnishing a progress report. On June 5, we plan on having recommendations on areas for detailed analysis, and at the meeting changed from July to June 26, there will be a progress report on our activities in competitive action plans and competitive alternatives. At the meeting on August 7, there will be a presentation of the results of our detailed analysis, and on September 4, we will have presented to you a draft of our final report. At the meeting of October 3, we anticipate having all of the comments back and incorporated into the final report with a final wrap-up presentation at that meeting. So we have scheduled our deliverables and milestones around these key meetings. We anticipate that at every one of these meetings,~ there will be at least one of us here to do the presentations, and at times, there may more. We will focus the people here as dictated by the agenda items. As to the first four tasks, we are looking at the next month where we will be concentrating most of our activity, the first item, specifically the electric survey. It is not to ignore the other surveys, but this is a very extensive survey. It is something that you may recall from our proposal that we have been doing in the industry now for about seven years. It just takes some time for the utility to be able to assemble all of the information that will go into this benchmarking survey, so we will get that started right away. We have already started some plans for a kickoff meeting with the utility director and his staff. It will be next Thursday, April Ii. We will have the utility director, the’assistant directors and their direct reports at that meeting. What we are going to be doing in the course of that meeting is several things. We are going to go over the scope of MINUTES UAC:04/03/96 Final Page 7 the project and how we plan on conducting it and the kind of input and information we will be requesting from the various departments in the utility. We are also going to be doing a two-hour seminar on benchmarking. We have found this to be very beneficial in kicking off this kind of a study to get people really aware of why you do benchmarking, what the end results can look like, and what kind of participation we will require in getting this done. We think this emphasis is important, because the bench_marking is really one of those tools we have that constantly keeps the objectivity of this study in mind. It is very hard data that we use in comparing the performance of utilities all over the country. We have also begun, through the support of Rosemary Ralston, to develop some of the data requests. This slide shows a list of starting points of information that we need to gather and review as part of the study. Again, we hope to have that pretty well completed within the first month or so of the study. The other element we want to accomplish early on are the initial, high- level interviews. It is our anticipation, unless you direct us otherwise, to plan on individual interviews with the UAC members, with City Council members, which we .have found particularly informative in the past to get some objective feedback from the City Council members and their constituents, also with the other city departments that provide services and support tO the utility, and with the senior members of the utility staff. So we hope to get all of those done during the first month of the study. The next slide, Tangible Project Benefits, reiterates some of the benefits that we think will accrue from this study. The bench_marking, the objective assessment, the organizational review which, as Tim has already outlined, will be the lead responsibility of TB&A to conduct that study. That was a concern that was raised during the process regarding the involvement of RMI because of their continuing work for the utility. We are going to take the lead on that study. The VCM analysis we feel will provide some very informative information about high value services that are provided, and it will also help. us identify lower value services that perhaps can be reduced or eliminated. The issues of competitiveness, custome~ expectations, and water and gas issues are the areas where RMI will be focusing their attention. One of the things we need to resolve early on is to just how best incorporate the customer input into the study. It was an important part of our proposal, although it was not specifically called out in the Request for MINUTES UAC:04/03/96 Final Page 8 Proposal, that we sort out within the next week or two how best to accomplish that, whether it would be through surveys or interviews or focus groups, working with the utility to’see what kind of information they may already have on their customers. We know this is always a sensitive area, and we want to do it in the best forum possible to provide the best possible input from the customers. That concludes our prepared material. We will be happy to address any questions or concerns. Commissioner Grimsrud: I was wondering when we are going to discuss what to benchmark. I guess it is part of your new work where you say the first task is to decide what to benchmark. I was wondering if that will happen in this workshop next week, or is that what will happen tonight? Mr. Szybalski: If I could answer, we are really prepared to go ahead with the electric survey immediately. It is a well prepared series of 50 or so questions that culminates in a survey that compares a panel of utilities across the country. So I guess we are really asking for approval to go ahead with that particular survey, which is a broad survey of utility practices and utility performance measures. I did not bring a book with us today that would show it, but I think the selection committee had a copy of that book. .Commissioner Grimsrud: I guess what I would have liked to see is perhaps just a general sense, given that survey, on the kinds of parameters that you see to be important for benchmarking. Maybe a list or a table with some of the major factors that are used for benchmarking, and for us to respond to that. Otherwise, we will get the results, and we would not have had any input in the process. Mr. Szybalski: I could take a few minutes to walk you through that, but it would not be a formal presentation. Basically, we go through the major processes that occur in a utility company. We go through basic reliability statistics, the overall T&D organization, customer service kinds of responses, maintenance practices, store management response outage kinds of processes, and most of these are supported by the various measures you .have around customer outage minutes. We ask a lot about construction practices and construction crew sizes. We have been monitoring over seven yea.rs the various kinds of trends in each of those areas, meaning size of construction crews are generally getting smaller, the kinds of work practices using rubber gloves or how people approach energized lines, some of the safety rules, so it is about 50 or 60 MINUTES UAC:04/03/96 Final Page 9 detailed questions about practice and all the basic processes in an electric utility. Commissioner Grimsrud: Maybe it would be in the workshop, but it would be good to show an exa!~ple of the output of that for the major benchmark parameters that you use, for us to get a feel for whether that makes sense for Palo Alto or not, or should we do something a little bit different. Mr. Resh: Paul, we would be happy to do a couple of things. First of all, I can have copies of our most recent surveys for transmission distribution, customer service and marketing sent up here right away so that you can look through all of those. We certainly invite your participation in the seminar. We will plan on going over a fair ~mount of that information at the seminar, although it is not the sole purpose of doing it. The primary purpose is perhaps more to educate the staff on what we are trying to accomplish with that information. We would be happy to get your input on it. One of the things we have experienced in the past with the survey is that it tends to be, if anything, overly ambitious in terms of the fact that there is quite a bit of information that does not necessarily apply to every different utility. We have developed it over a number of years. There are actually 555 different data points or pieces of information in the survey. We find that in some cases, what actually makes sense is to pare some of that back rather than necessarily doing it all. It can be a bit of a task getting all of that information down. Chairman Johnston: I would like to see us take you up on your offer in terms of distributing that material. I then suggest as a mechanism that any commissioners who have comments on the applicability to Palo Alto, or whatever concerns they might have, there would be a mechanism for them to get in touch with Ed Mrizek’s staff in time for the April Ii meeting. Then we can get feedback through that meeting. Commissioner Grimsrud: That sounds good. My thought also is that it is not necessarily just what is in the survey, but maybe examples of how you analyze the survey results and how that might be presented. That might be a part of the benchmarking .thing also. As you mentioned, the survey may have 500 data items, but for Palo Alto, .there are certain ones that are important, and how you interpret them are important. That is where I see us being interactive, making sure that we are really going after meaningful information before it has all .happened. MINUTES UAC:04/03/96 Final Page 10 Mr. Resh: Great. We welcome that input and will get that to you tomorrow for the April II meeting. We will send two different sets of documents. One will be the actual raw survey forms which are not necessarily quite as meaningful as the end reports. The end reports will be readily apparent and you can see the performance comparisons in them. The forms have been developed over years of use in terms of how best to get people to provide the raw data, and then we take those data and put them through a whole process that we have developed where we actually produce the end study. You will probably want to focus your attention on the final reports and not so much on the questionnaires themselves. CQmmissioner Chandler: I have a question about the survey which I am not certain I understood from the presentation. Is the survey, in general something that you undertake generally? Or is it something that is being undertaken as a specific part of this project? Mr. Resh: The survey that we are referring to is a survey we have been doing of the utility industry for the last seven years. It is in three parts, transmission/distribution, customer service and marketing. What we are going to do is to ask the utility to fill out the survey questionnaires, and we will put the Palo Alto information into our database of information and produce customized reports for Palo Alto for~ the purposes of the study. Commissioner Chandler: I wanted to make a couple of general comments about the selection process, and everything I am going to say is reflected in our minutes, which I really would commend to you to take a look at. There were a couple of principle reasons why I, for one, felt pretty strongly that you folks were the right team to be working with us on this, plus one thing that cut the other way, actually. There is an ironic element to one of the reasons. That is, one of the people who was on one of the competing teams happens to have been a utility commissioner in a city where you did a study previously, and we knew you had done the study because you had referred to this city. The commissioner talked at length about how effective that study had been, how useful it had been, how specific it had been in the scope of its recommendations, and the way you had then worked to develop an implementation plan. I think it was inadvertent on .this person’s part, but it certainly made an impact on me. The second factor that, to me, was very favorable was the sense of independence I got from you in terms of the way you would work with the MINUTES UAC:04/03/96 Final Page 11 various constituent bodies in the city from the City Council to the UAC to the utilities staff itself. I feel that that independence is very important. The factor that cut in the other direction was that your proposal was more focused than some of the others on the competitive assessment. We understood that Dr. Exler had been involved in doing work for the city before, and that the work had been well received. That was a favorable element, but I felt that I wanted to have a lot of focus on day to day operations , really working to implement specific task-oriented suggestions in the traditional organizational study mode, rather than spending a lot of time on broader policy issues. At the time of the selection, I felt that this was an opportunity where I could provide some of that feedback to you, and perhaps others who felt the same way could also. There might be a possibility of adjusting at the margin here where the emphasis is given, with all due respect. We respect your work, but this is not a repeat of that previous assignment nor an update of it to deal with the changing landscape that we have today. So I wanted to provide that feedback, because those are very important elements to me, and I think to others, as you look back at the record that we created in terms of what we want .to get out of this process. I spent a good part of this afternoon giving a review to a pretty darn good employee who, none the less, has some areas for improvement. It was a very tricky process to impress the need for improvement on someone who was doing a good job and also wanted to be rewarded and wanted to feel they were doing the right things. I think some of that same task is before you, so if you keep that balance in mind, it will be successful. Commissioner Grimsrud: One other question I have in terms of the benchmarking is making sure that we get apples to apples comparisons with other utilities. I guess the process is that you are going to collect data from Palo Alto and then use an industrywide database to make some comparisons. I was just wondering where, in your schedule here, we would get feedback as to what is the appropriate way of ensuring that we have an apples to apples comparison. We cannot compare Palo Alto with the City of Los Angeles/LADWP and/or if there are somewhat different kinds of municipalities, what kind of an analysis might you to unbias those kinds of comparisons. I wondered when that would happen. Mr. Szybalski: Clearly an apples to apples comparison is virtually impossible in this benchmarking. The utility companies are very MINUTES UAC:04/03/96 Final Page 12 different; the operations are very different, and the service territories are different. Most of our adjustment comes with doing the first cut at comparisons, and then trying to actually understand the background of the utility, what is different about it, and how it compares to the panel. There are some areas where it may be in a fourth quartile and there may be some very distinctive reasons, given the service territory, why that is true. Nevertheless, it gives us a place to start looking if a performance level is very different from some other utility. As we have approached the municipal market or even the cooperative markets, smaller kinds of organizations, yes, the comparison to these larger companies does become an issue. We have generally been able to show people it is a good standard to hold them to. Maybe municipals may, in general, be lower in some of the areas, and our experience is that in some areas, they generally are lower, but that is not always the case. It allows us to really identify superior performance and compare the utility to that performance level. So we think that for what we are trying to do, it is a fair standard to help us identify where potential areas of improvement are. Many of the practices are not really related to size. They are really related to planning, scheduling, crew performance, those kinds of things. So it is a first start now. We are prepared to supplement, to some extent, with a municipal panel of your choice. That is probably something Tom would be glad to talk to. We do have municipal utilities in the panel.. They tend to be the larger ones. We do have a database of some smaller ones that we have worked with. They can be supplemented in that way. Commissioner Grimsrud: So in other words, you could compare us with somewhat like in kind, a dozen or so municipal utilities or small investor-owned utilities, for that matter? Mr.. Resh: One of the things I have done over the last several weeks is that there are a number of these studies going on right now or are about to be started. The City of Santa Clara is going to be doing a study. The City of Redding is going to be doing a study. We proposed on those studies, and although we were not selected, I have discussed with the key people in those municipalities the possibility of working with some of their data and with their consultants to do some comparisons between the results of their study and the results of ours. To the extent that that is a prudent thing to do (and we probably need to talk about that before we do it), that is certainly a possibility. They have all been open to doing it, and that may be a way of supplementing some of the information. MINUTES UAC:04/03/96 Final Page 13 Tim made an important point that I want to emphasize. In terms of looking at the future and looking at the competition for this utility and this service territory, we really think it is important to focus on what the investor-owned utilities are doing. They are much more likely to be the competitors than another municipal that simply does not have the resources to reach out and do the things that a PG&E might do up here or that a Southern California Edison might be able to do .in Southern California. So we do not want to lose that perspective. As you may recall, one of our credentials that we used in presenting our capability for doing this study was the study we did for Riverside. We relied very heavily on investor-owned performance in doing the benchmarking study for them. I actually believe that if you were to call the director down there today, he would say that was the right thing to do. Comparing them to Burbank and Pasadena and Glendale would not have been nearly as meaningful as comparing them to San Diego and Southern California Edison. I think that same situation will be found here. We are prepared to supplement it, and one of the ways might be to coordinate with some of these other ongoing studies. Mr. Oechsler: As we outlined in our proposal, one of the steps along the way in the interpreting of the benchmarking results is to take into account those factors of the environment in which Palo Alto is operating that can explain differences. That was an area where RMI will be Working closely with Timand his colleagues, because we do have a very substantial knowledge of the environment in which your city functions and in which other municipal utilities in Northern California operate. To the extent that that environment introduces special circumstances that need to be taken into account, we will be working to ensure that those factors are considered. Chairman Johnston: We will now take public testimony. from Richard Gruen who wishes to speak on this issue. I have a card Richard Gruen, P.O. Box 2351, Palo Alto: I turned in this card to speak before you gentlemen had the opportunity to reassure me that you are thinking along the right directions. The two directions I had in mind were that I view the utility environment changing such that we will really have a generation utility in electricity, for example, and a distribution utility and a transmission utility.. I envision the competition being someone like PG&E who says, we do generation, we do transmission, and how much do you charge for distribution. Looking at how efficient we are in each of these sub-utilities, if you will, is probably equally important for the competitive environment. I am MINUTES UAC:04/03/96 Final Page 14 thinking in terms of someone like Sun Microsystems, who might be a potential customer for us, where PG&E would be the competitor. Either of us could provide distribution to them relatively easily, certainly for the Palo Alto and also for the Mountain View areas. What you would like to know is, could we compete with them? Could we make a proposal? People tend to say, well, our electricity comes out at 6¢ or 7¢ a kilowatt hour, and they will ignore the differences underneath. Those differences will become increasingly important in the future. A second point is really similar in that investor-owned utilities are going to be a part of the competition, so they better be a part of the benchmark. They better be what you are comparing it to, rather than saying, Santa Clara, because they are a municipal, is somehow more significant. I think you are absolutely right in looking at the IOU’s. Thank you. ~hairman Johnston: Thank you, Mr. Gruen. Next is Mr. Debs. R. J. Debs, 3145 ~Flowers Lane, Palo Alto: Thank you, Mr. Chairman. This is not my idea, but it is a good one. The traffic situation in this town has gotten very bad. People are speeding and running red lights, and since there has been put into the utility bill a matter of graffiti, it seems to this gentleman who cooked it up that perhaps something could be put in that the police have five motorcycles and traded in two patrol cars. They are actively starting to work on this. Two of them have qualified, and three are in ~training. Also, there is a team going out about red-light running. There are automatic agents that do this, and I am trying to pursue it with the council to take them up. I have talked to one of you on this, and other cities, including China, has them. The police are sitting on this, and if we could-give it to everyone in town that way that it would be good to slow down and to watch out going past red lights and also trucks are really violating it. Thank you. Chairman Johnston: That completes the comments from the public. Mr Mrizek: I have some comments on the process as it regards staff and what I have seen presented here. My first comment has to do with the presentation under the initial interviews page where the City Council members are listed. I believe that the presentation indicated that the consultant would probably be interviewing council members one on one. In the proposal that we sent out, we did indicate to give the council an opportunity to discuss the concerns of the utilities operation for making their input. I have not had an opportunity to find out from the City Manger whether the council wants to have this performed at a MINUTES UAC:04/03/96 Final Page 15 council meeting with the entire council listening to the consultant, or on a one-on-one basis. I would like to have that clarified before we proceed with that step. Also, on that page, I would propose that we include the City Manager, as far as interviews, and also that we add a Joint Action Agency representative, Mr. Mike MacDonald of NCPA. I have already alerted him that the study is under way, since one of the assignments is to look at our involvement with joint action agencies. In the schedule, as far as meetings, it shows that the final report would come to the commission in October. I would add a step, because once the commission reviews the report and carries it to the council, that would probably take place in November, and the commission would probably want the consultant to be present at that time. Those are my only comments at this time. MOTION: Chairman Johnston: I move that we approve the work plan and actiod items, along with the comments that have been provided by Mr. Mrizek and Commissioner Grimsrud in response to his request here. SECOND: By Commissioner Chandler. I made a comment about the degree of focus on competitive assessment versus other issues that I had thought reflected some discussion we had at the time. I do not want to leave it out there as a confusing matter. If the rest of you folks do not have that recollection and you thin~ that that suggestion is out of order, we ought to make that very clear and to just proceed. If you thought that was the right suggestion, we ought to clarify that, as well. Commissioner Grimsrud: Not everyone was in favor, one way or the other, as I recall. I think Dick Rosenbaum, among Others, wanted more of°a straight, mundane type of benchmarking. There were others, like myself, that were interested in the competitive a~pects of it. There needs to be some balance, and it is a question of what balance we have. There were a whole lot of presentation points made from all of the proposers on the competitive issues, and not very much on just straight benchmarking. Perhaps what we should say is that we are very interested, and that was one reason why I was very strongly supportive of your organization. I felt that you had the tools to do a good benchmark procedure, as well as a competitive assessment. So there needs to be a balance, and as we proceed more, we may get a sense of whether we need more of one thing or another. At this point, I am comfortable with what you have presented. Chairman Johnston: I agree with Mark’s comments, and it is probably a MINUTES UAC:04/03/96 Final Page 16 good idea ’that we do that, because there clearly was a range of opinion on this commission in terms of how much of it should be toward competitiveness, looking ahead at a competitive environment, and how much ought to be aimed at just having the most efficient, streamlined operation that we can have on more of a nuts-and-bolts type of a study. I was struck in the presentation that you gave that you had clearly the best tools. I agree with Paul on that. The benchmarking you spoke of was much more specific, much more detailed than any of the other people who came here to propose, many of whom gave very good presentations but did not seem to have the same tool kit. On the other hand, I, too, was not entirely happy, Tom, with an answer that you gave to one of the questions at the meeting. It did make me believe that you were going too far into the competitiveness issue, almost to the point that areas like water and wastewater collection, which are not planned for d~regulation, would get left a little by the wayside. I certainly do not want to see that happen. I want to see a balance here. I am interested in both sides. As you plan to do a lot of interviews, you may hear some range of opinions through those interviews, but it is important that this be designed to be a comprehensive study, designed to be able to address a variety of issues related to competitiveness, which means just doing the best job you can, as well as competing with somebody else who is trying to get the same business. So I would add that comment. The bottom line is that everyone on this panel voted for having you here. Our main hope is that we still feel that way when you are done! Are there any other comments? Commissioner Eyerly: I am sure you realize that you are dealing with political bodies. The UAC is not so political, but the council certainly will be, and you will have input in interviews from a variety of sources. With your background and from what we have seen, whether we trust that you can balance that in your benchmarking and on your return and as you move ahead, if you do not, you will probably get your critiquing from here, for sure. MOTION PASSES: Chairman Johnston: Is there any further discussion on this motion? All those in favor, say aye. All opposed? That passes unanimously on a vote of 4-0 with Commissioners Chandler, Eyerly, Grimsrud and Johnston voting aye and Commissioner Sahagian absent. Thank you very much. I appreciate your time. It looks like we will be seeing a fair amount of you, essentially at every meeting from here on for awhile. I wish you luck in the study. I am sure you will get the cooperation you need from the utility department. It should be MINUTES UAC:04/03/96 Final Page 17 interesting, and hopefully, rewarding for all of us. Item 6.b. Information Report: Update on Discharge Standards for the Regional Water Quality Control Plant. Chairman Johnston: Glenn Roberts will make the presentation. Mr. Roberts: Than~ you, Mr. Chair. I appreciate the commission’s indulgence in rearranging the order of these items. It makes a little more sense to talk about the standards first. Corrosion is really a subset of a bench control measure for compliance with those standards. I will make a couple of brief introductory comments and then turn the bulk of the presentation over to Phil Bobel, Manager of Environmental Compliance. Also present tonight are Bill Miks, Plant Manager, and Kelly Moran, Manager of Environmental Control Programs, who will be participating in the presentation, as well. With regard to the update on the permit renewal and compliance with standards, I want to enter one piece of information about the process that has happened since last this was before you in October of 1995. As the commission knows, we have been working on a joint effort with the other cities in the south bay, Sunnyvale and San Jose in particular, to develop a coordinated approach in dealing with the Regional Water Quality Control Board on the relaxing of standards and reissuance of the permit. There has been one significant event that has resulted in somewhat of a step sideways temporarily that I want to bring to the commission’s attention. The previous executive director of the Regional Water Quality Control Board, Steve Richie, left that post and has now taken the position as executive director of the San Francisco PUC. He is dealing with issues like Metro and Hetch Hetchy, those kinds of things in the San Francisco water system. All of the discussions that we have had previously regarding this joint effort and the strategy and the process involved were developed with him and had his concurrence. We now have a new executive director, a lady named Loretta Orsinian, who comes to this with some background experience but not that specific involvement and commitment to the joint effort. As a result, we have had to regroup somewhat. We are meetingwith her on April 5 to review this approach with her. I do not necessarily foresee any major problems or setback, but it has resulted in some items going on hold temporarily. I do not know if that will be a problem for the overall schedule, but we will know more once we meet with her and once we are able to discuss the specifics that Phil Bobel will be telling you about. Hopefully, we will obtain her concurrence as the new executive director MINUTES UAC: 04/03/96 Final Page 18 of the San Francisco By Area Water Quality Control Board. I simply wanted to highlight that for your attention. The good news is that we are even more committed to the joint effort with our cities, working towards a consensus, but we have had to take more time to do it than we originally thought. Commissioner Grimsrud: I assume the troops are pretty much the saxae, that is, the people on the board that work with you on a day to day basis. It is just the executive director who has changed. Or does the executive director represent all of the intelligence of the agency? Mr. Roberts: Clearly, the day to day staff, whom Phil knows by name and bY sight far better than I do, could talk about it in a little more detail. But yes, the people there, the technical staff and the policy staff are still, by and large, the same, but of course, they take their direction from the executive director, and her approach to this is really key. Also, there have been some changes on the board, as well. Some new members have been appointed to the board, and she needs to develop her approach consistent with the board’s direction and policy as well. It is just taking a little time to sort through that, but the technical staff, by and large, is the same. Commissioner Chandler: I have a general question. One thing I noted in this report was that the City of San Jose is developing some data to support a site-specific concentration standard of eight to ten parts per billion. I am wondering what is the process to collect those data, and what can we do to be supportive of that effort. It certainly was one of the bright spots in this report. Mr. Roberts: That is a part of the joint effort that we are working on. San Jose has undertaken some of these technical activities independently, as have we and Sunnyvale also. We are still discussing how to bring them together into focus, but clearly, all three cities are supportive of that effort. Commissioner Chandler: Has there been an effort made to actually hire some consultant for this? It sounds like a pretty detailed study of the specific makeup of the bay bottom. "Silt, clay, organic matter and complexing ions in the receiving water trap toxic chemicals and prevent them from being as toxic to marine life." If there is’an opportunity there to put some resources into developing a pretty strong, scientifically based report, rather than just throwing information at the agency, I would love to see that happen. MINUTES UAC:04/03/96 Final Page 19 Mr. Roberts: Absolutely. Phil can tell you some of the specifics about what both is doing and what we are doing in that regard. ~ommissioner Chandler: I have one other question. What was our cyanide event in November? Mr. Roberts: I will let Phil speak to both of those shortly. Commissioner Eyerly: I have a few questions for Glenn. As I looked through the report and looked back over what we have been through, to me, the big thing that happened when we were discussing this before was that there was litigation that came forth precluding ~the enforcement of the regulations. Now we are trying to meet them. Have you had any input as far as the litigation is concerned? Is there any discussion in that vein? We have a letter from the city attorney of October 17th that indicates he was going to keep us and the City Council updated on that and provide reports in connection with his twice a year litigation status reports. Have you had any input from him as far as what he said in that letter, status reports twice a year on the litigation? Mr. Roberts: I am not aware of any specific recent up,ate that has been prepared by the city attorney in that regard, but I think that is due to the fact that there is really very little new information to report. The permits have all been remanded back to the regional board as a result of the settlement of that prior litigation. While, on the one hand, the permits are technically legally invalid and the standards are not enforceable, on the other hand, all three cities have jointly taken the position that we intend to continue to comply to the best of our ability with those prior permits and standards, pending development of new ones. That has been more of a policy issue in practice than it has been a legal situation. Commissioner Eyerly: That leads me to my second question. You are working with the other south bay dischargers, and the conditions with each are a little different, but I am presuming that the regulations that are going to come down are going to be as stringent as they think you people can meet individually or collectively. The litigation is not doing anything, and just what you said is my belief. Although we have not had any report on that from the city attorney, it seems that what is happening in the timeframe that you have, they are going to write the regulations after ample discussions with you people as to what they feel you can meet. Do you think that is the way it is going to happen? MINUTES UAC:04/03/96 Final Page 20 r R bet : I think that philosophically, regulators in all areas, whether air quality, water quality, etc~, tend to approach the process trying to drive the maximum feasible attainment. That certainly will.be a key consideration here from federal, state and local governments. What we are attempting to do in this process with our city is to show what is feasible on the one hand, but also what is necessary on the other hand, revisiting some of the science to look at the receiving waters, to look at the bionics and try to establish what is necessary to preserve the healthy of the bay, rather than what is technically feasible. We believe that there are reasonable parameters that can be established to show what is necessary as well as what is feasible. Commissioner Eyerl~: Then in your report where you have five key regulatory documents that you expect to be revised between now and July, 1998 and the discharge permit expires in July of 1998, if those requirements are not written to what you can meet, where are we going to be when July of 1998 comes around? Mr. Roberts: I think that will be a key part of Phil’s presentation that he will cover. Commissioner Eyerly:That is what is worrying me, so I will be glad to hear some answers. Phil Bobel: I was going to give a little more background than is now necessary, as I thought there would be a new board member present. Since you are all so well versed, I will just quickly remind anyone who has forgotten that we do have these three sewage treatment plants south of the Dumbarton Bridge. One is San Jose, and as you indicated, Mark, San Jose has been doing some special testing to try and facilitate getting a so-called site-specific limit that would take into account the special features of the south bay, namely, that we have a lot of sediment and "stuff" in the water that ties up these organic constituents. We have volunteered to help San Jose either financially or in any way that we can with testing. They have just completed an amazing new laboratory in the last year that some of you may want to visit. They have the best capability to do that kind of analysis of anyone now in Northern California, including the private sector. We do not have the same capabilities at our much smaller laboratory, so it is appropriate that they do that testing. We will continue to volunteer to help them financially. I am actually amazed that they have not yet taken us up on that offer. MINUTES UAC:04/03/96 Final Page 21 The fact that we are below the Dumbarton Bridge has lent itself to some other types of projects. (Slides are shown) You rejected this one at the last UAC meeting, which was, moving the bridge. (Laughter) The pollutants of concern are changing. This is a slide showing that copper is still at the top of the list and still the one we have the biggest problem with. It is the best example to work through with you, so I will be focusing on it again tonight. We do have some updates for you in terms of some of the other pollutants. Mark was asking about cyanide. With the cyanide situation, we did have a very special, and hopefully unique, problem in November. Throughout the month of November, we had elevated values coming into the treatment plant and going out of the treatment plant. We traced it back to Ramek, a company in East Palo Alto that takes waste from others and treats it. It is essentially a solvent recycler for the most part. They were taking cyanide waste and discharging it to us, and should not have been doing so. We are in the process of enforcement action relative to that, an enforcement action that actually the East Palo Alto Sanitary District would do, but we are supporting them in their effort. We have modified the Ramek permit very substantially to include major new monitoring and management controls at their facility to prevent something like that from happening again. Those permit provisions are now in place, and Ramek has a very different and augmented system for catching anything like this in the future. Cyanide, UP until that point, was actually a major success story for us. In past years, we have had cyanide hits, but in the early part of 1995, it had been reduced. It was really this one incident that was so crisp and so clear that we could trace it right back to the Ramek facility, and there was no question about where it was coming from. Cyanide is actually a success story for us. Thinking back to that list of pollutants I showed, it was one that, had it not been for this incident, I would have said it was no longer a pollutant of concern for us. In terms of the standard, it really is not. To give you an update on a few other pollutants, arsenic is another problem we had in the past which we think we have licked, as well. It is no longer a pollutant for us to worry about. It turns out that arsenic was coming to us from the groundwater in the East Palo Alto area from a superfund site there where arsenic was used 20, 30, 40 years ago in wood treating. It was used in a very haphazard manner that became laced in the ground. ~ It continues to move into the groundwater, so we have to be very careful that the sewer pipes do not allow that groundwater to enter it and move on down. That is what was happening. So the responsible parties in that area have repaired several sewer lines and actually found one again this winter which was eliminated that MINUTES UAC:04/03/96 Final Page 22 was bringing arsenic into our system, but not in great enough concentrations to cause a problem. So this winter, the January/February values are still well below the limit, which was not the case in past winters, so we feel like we have found the arsenic problem at that East Palo Alto superfund site, and we feel we have solved it. Another good news pollutant story is nickel. This slide goes back to October of 1992, to give you a little perspective. Actually, this trend continued all through 1995. We did not have any violations of nickel in 1995. Those very large spikes at the end of 1994 we traced back to a particular facility, and an enforcement action was taken, and we do not expect that problem to reoccur. The name of the facility was Hammond Plating in Palo Alto. It is a fairly small facility near San Antonio Road. So nickel looks like something that is under control for us, and this actually distinguishes us a little bit from problems that still occur in San Jose. In San Jose, both copper and nickel continue to be major issues for them. As we move through the planned development process, we will be focusing mostly on copper. San Jose will be focusing both on copper and nickel. We feel we have nickel pretty much licked now. One other success story reminder is that silver, for a long time, was on our list. Not only are we well below the silver limits for discharge today, but we have been able to show that the buildup in clams that had occurred is dramatically less. You have seen charts like this before. We now have a 1995 datapoint, so we just show it this way over essentially a decade and a half. It is one of our big good news story. Chairman Johnston: Phil, what is the standard on that? Mr. Bobel: There is no standard for the amount of silver in clams, at least, no enforceable standard. The standard that we have to meet is 2.2 parts per billion in our effluent, which is now down around 0.2. So we are down one order of magnitude below the standard almost always. It has had a positive effect on the clams. Commissioner Grimsrud: These anecdotes you have shown us about these events we have had in the past brings to my mind the level of surveillance we will need in the future to be able to identify these things very quickly, or be able to identify them, period. I guess we were lucky in the past. I am not sure what process you needed to pinpoint the source, but I was wondering if we have a surveillance system that will be adequate to quickly and efficiently find problems MINUTES UAC:04/03/96 Final Page 23 when they arise. Mr Bobel: We do have a system, and I would not say it is pure luck, but I would have to admit that there is an element of that. It is a needle in a haystack kind of phenomenon. We have a large service area, and some of these discharges are very small. There are hundreds of medium sized dischargers, but thousands of small dischargers. It is difficult to pinpointoa source. We do have systems for doing it; we do have monitoring in place, and we have to balance the cost of that monitoring, which is large, against the potential for need. As we continue to control these major dischargers, we hope that that means the need for monitoring at least will not be any greater than it is now. I must say that this incident with cyanide in the fall did bring me back to the reality that an individual discharger can impact our effluent even though it is over 20 million gallons per day. To be honest, it rocked my confidence to notice that one discharger could impact. 20 million gallons a day to the extent that they did. So you are right. We will have to continue with the aggressive monitoring. I hope we do not have to increase it. Here is one other graph on current events, pollutant-specific. The largest remaining problem is copper. This shows calendar year 1995 updated, but not dramatically changed from data I have shown you in the past. The standard is 4.9. We~are, generally speaking, over the limit. However, due to the remanded basis plan and the remanded permit, this standard is not currently enforceable for Palo Alto, so it is not technically a violation, but this is how we compare to the standard that they had imposed earlier. To recap, what has happened to us is that the litigation actually at both the federal and state level has resulted in these standards not being enforceable and yet not replaced by a specific standard. I showed you this chart the last time which has no important updates. It shows that we have a schedule to get the copper standard. In our case, that is the critical one. San Jose is also interested in revising the nickel standard° We have these activities under way at the national, state and local levels to get a new standard ready for our permit which needs to be issued by the regulatory agencies in July, 1998. One could argue that they need to do it right now, because the permit has been remanded and is not valid, not enforceable. We view it as being more their problem than ours. If they do not do it any quicker, I do not see a big negative for Palo Alto. San Jose and Sunnyvale see as it a larger negative, because they are in jeopardy of violating a mass limit much MINUTES UAC:04/03/96 Final Page 24 more quickly than we are, due to their growth. So San Jose and Sunnyvale are pushing to get this standard in place for copper as early as possible and before 1998. I am not sure that is realistic, and I think the regulatory agencies will be able to do it in this timeframe, frankly. There is no major update to these schedules. If you have any questions about these activities, the only one I am going to focus on is the one Glenn mentioned, and that is what we are doing most locally with respect to the South Bay Plan. Next I would like to show you another slide as an example of some of the actions that we have under way. Mark alluded to some of the testing that San Jose is doing to prepare for another standard. We also have consultants at work doing various things. One of the activities is to go back over existing data to prepare for the new permit. This is not going to be only with respect to copper, but also all of the important pollutants to.us. Zinc is one where we violate our effluent limit about once a year or so, it seems like. So it is an important one for us to revisit. What we want to do between now and 1998 is to assemble data that demonstrate that zinc is not one for which they need to give us this kind of a limit. You can see on this chart that the standard in the receiving water (the bay itself) is that line at the top. The bay values for zinc, the concentration of zinc actually in the bay at these four stations, is all well below the limit that is to be achieved in the receiving water. In other words, the bay itself is okay. When the bay is okay, they are not supposed to impose these kinds of standards upon us. Yet they did in past permits. So we are going to assemble these kinds of data and make the argument that zinc should not be one of the constituents regulated through this same kind of process. We are currently going through a detailed analysis of each pollutant now (and we have consultants helping with that) to put the best foot forward that we can to limit the exposure that the city has to standards which may not be completely necessary, given the way federal and state statutes work. So I wanted to make you aware that this is the kind of stuff we are assembling, and at future meetings, you may want to have us present some of the detail on other pollutants. I wanted you to know that we are expending a fair amount of energy on efforts like this for different pollutants. We have different kinds of angles and approaches on different pollutants. This is one of them. Commissioner Grimsrud: Station #3 looks like it is just outside the outfall discharge° (Yes) So if that looks good, it ought to be pretty convincing. What would be.interesting would be to see a time history of MINUTES UAC:04/03/96 Final Page 25 that.If that showed that you did not have a problem over a time period,that ought to be very convincing. Mr, Bobel: Yes, and we have done those kinds of plots and statistics, too. Unfortunately, the number of datapoints out in the bay is not large° You do not get a really convincing statistical picture as far as the timeframe goes. We are looking at it from that angle as well where we can find these trends. Another convincing trend that we are looking for is that most of these pollutants, our trend in our pipe, has looked like this - down. This is copper, the one where we say we have a problem, but actually, if you look at it in terms of the mass of copper and you look over a fairly extended time horizon, it looks like we are really doing well, and we are from this angle. So if you had bay values over this same period of time, and they were relatively flat, which we believe they were, relative to this, then that suggests that the amount of copper coming from other sources is so great that it swamps the effect of our discharge and reduces the importance of controlling our particular discharge, since it is not having that great an impact on the bay. We are trying to develop data that would allow us to make those kinds of arguments, as well. Chairman Johnston: Phil, regarding the chart you just showed for zinc in terms of the receiving water requirement, I do not recall a similar chart for copper. Mr. Bobel: We have one, but I do not have it here. It does not paint as rosy a picture, and that is why I didn’t show it to you. Chairman Johnston: How bad is it? Mr, Bobel: Copper is not that far over the bay limit, but it does go over a little. So if I had this up for copper, it would look about the same. Station #3 is higher than the others, but the black line would intersect all of the bars, in other words, all of the stations are approximately 20% above the standard. Chairman Johnston: And you see the study that San Jose is currently conducting as potentially being one way to raise the receiving water at that black line you showed. Commissioner Grimsrud: Has any effort been made to try and estimate the relative magnitude of the point and nonpoint sources? Mr. Bobel: Yes. A good question. I do not have a chart for you, but MINUTES UAC:04/03/96 Final Page 26 we have taken a cut on that, and for copper, the estimate is that the point source dischargers, the three sewage treatment plants, are roughly 15% of the total. There is a lot of debate about that number, because the storm water values are extremely variable. If you have a wet year, you have a huge sediment load coming down the creeks and the values change greatly. Some people feel that you should compare it only with relatively dry years or summer months. There are all kinds of different ways. of doing that, but the regional board did it in a particular way that they have used. Taking these data,, it would say that the point source discharges are 15% of the total for copper. Commissioner Grimsrud: So given that, it sounds as if even though you had zero discharge, there are lots of times when you would not be satisfying water quality standards in the south bay. Mr. Bobel: We believe that that is probably true, and that is some of the data that we are trying to put together. Like I said, if we could show that even with our decreasing copper values, the bay values are either constant or meandering around, it would support the concept that our POTW discharge is not crucial or even influential in the bay values. We are certainly trying to put together all of the data we can to make that case. Commissioner Grimsrud:~ What local agency is looking into the overall copper problem from the nonpoint source? Mr. Bobel: It is the same water board, the Regional Water Quality Control Board. Commissioner Grimsrud: So you are looking into that as well, and looking at measures to d~crease nonpoint sources. Mr. Bobel: Right. That is a big part of it, and if you would like to hear about that at one of your future meetings, we could paint the picture on that for you. One chart I wanted to show you about copper that will set the stage for the next agenda item oncorrosion shows just where the copper is coming from. This pie shows the sources of copper coming through the sewage treatment plant. Remembering that we feel that only roughly 15% of the copper is coming through the sewage treatment plant, of that 15%, here are the sources of that 15%. This is the most recent estimate that Kelly did. For the first time since we have been doing this over the last four or five years, we have finally gotten very good closure, thanks to Kelly’s work on a mass balance here. MINUTES UAC:04/03/96 Final Page 27 It was mostly due to the fact that we had just completed these four studies on corrosion and we now have an increased estimate of copper coming from corrosion. In other words, more copper is coming from corrosion than we used to think was the case. It has allowed us to close our mass balance pretty Successfully. To the extent that we have to get any future major reductions, we would have to start looking at that corrosion piece to do much good° That is the obvious takeaway message here. Commissioner Grimsrud: I assume there is a corrosion element to each of those other sectors. Mr Bobel: We have taken that out of the other sectors. Commissioner Grimsrud: My question is whether most of the corrosion is from the residential sector because there are more pipes? Or is it from the industrial sector? Mr, Bobel: Kelly Moran can respond to that. Ms. Moran: The corrosion contribution is flow based, so it is based on the number of gallons per day coming from the various sectors. In the Clean Bay Plan, we actually have a breakout of the corrosion contribution, although I.do not have it broken out quite in a direct way to answer your question. Of the flow that comes from industry, about 40% of the copper is from corrosion. Of the flow that comes from the commercial sector, such as small businesses, office buildings, etc., 54% comes from corrosion. Of the flow coming from residences, which is about 60% of our flow, 72% of the copper comes from corrosion, so it is directly related to the flow. There are also corrosion-related sources that are not corrosion, of copper drinking, water piping. For example, corrosion of cooling towers, excess corrosion due to the circulation of hot water systems, etc. are not included in this pink corrosion piece of the pie but it is included in the individual sectors. ~=~: Just multiplying those numbers roughly in my head, you would have about 70% of the corrosion coming from the residential, splitting the other 30% between commercial and industrial. We are going to talk about corrosion a bit more in a minute. Let me just talk about the South Bay Plan developments a, bit. That is one of the regulatory activities that is ongoing between now and 1998 to get us to a new standard. In our case, the one we are the most concerned about, of course, is copper. The three south bay dischargers are making the case MINUTES UAC:04/03/96 Final Page 28 to the regional board that we have to do this South Bay Plan, and we must do it quickly. As Glenn was alluding to, we had an agreement with the old executive officer that this needed to be done and that they ought to start it going. With the change in leadership on the regional board, there has been some lost time, even though the staff people are the same. The agreement really had not gotten all the way down in their organizational structure, and they had neither embraced it nor begun it. So we-have to make sure that we have this commitment at the top again and ensure that it gets pushed down the line. I met with the new regional board director, and I met with her two weeks ago to try and get this thing back on track. The key features of the South Bay Plan for us are, of course, that it be cooperative with our three cities which is already under way with the technical activities we have been talking about. We need to get these toxic pollutant standards finalized, and most importantly to us, we need some long-term stability and certainty on what these standards are going to be. We cannot have these things continue to bounce around. You know what we have been facing in the last few years is a standard that has changed and has gone from 300 in 1989 to 4.9 in 1993. We hope that it heads in a different direction. That is one issue. Another issue is stability and certainty. If we are going to be spending large amounts of money or any money at all, we need some better figures and some certainty as to what the values are going to be. So that is a major issue for us. Involvement of all the interest groups is an issue. We have had a situation in the past where groups that were not happy appealed, filed suit, etc., so it is important for us to have a process that is scientifically based so that the dischargers do not feel the need to file suit nor the environmental groups. That is our goal. If there are q~estions about that, we can take them, or we can move to the corrosion part. Commissioner Eyerly: On the metals that we are discharging (and it seems like you have been very successful in the efforts you have made, outside of copper), it makes me ask the question that I guess strictly source control is the way you have brought that down. If, in source control, do you control it through permits to discharge certain metals? How is that handled? Mr. Bobel: It is not just source control. I want to give Mr. Miks due credit here. The plant has increased the removal efficiency through it. In the last five or six years, we have gone from about 80% of copper removal to about 90% copper removal. Of course, that means that what is MINUTES UAC:04/03/96 Final Page 29 coming out of the end of the pipe was basically cut in half from 20% to 10%. So we have had a major decrease in copper and in some of the other metals because of efforts we have made to increase- the removal efficiency through the plant. So we have done that, but you are correct in.that we have made major source control efforts. Some of those were driven through permits. The largest industries, approximately i00 of them, get individual permits, and we spend a lot of time with those big guys. We have had a series of waste minimization reviews that they have been doing. We have had consultants helping them to do these waste minimization reviews, suggesting specific measures in their plants. In addition to those i00 major facilities, we have also had a series of source control programs for smaller facilities such as automobile repair facilities, machine shops, laboratories, and those do not all get handled through a permit process. There are just too many of them. They get handled through development of best management practices, dissemination of those, relatively less frequent inspections where we discuss it with the facility owners, so we have a three-tiered approach, and then there is our residential work as Well, so we have programs going on for industry, for smaller commercial businesses that are not permit driven, and homeowner public education which, of course, is not permit driven. Commissioner Eyerl~: The upgrading of the plant that Bill was involved with was several years ago. Mr. Bobel: It really continues. I am not talking about physical upgrades. The last major physical upgrade was in ’98 (!!) That helped. But I am talking about operational changes we have made. There are three or four of those that Bill could elaborate upon. Commissioner Grimsrud: I would like to say that I am really glad we are doing this collaborative work with the south bay dischargers and also your involvement in the state task group. I feel that is a good move. Hopefully, through this analysis, we will come up with something as that is the kind of thing we were discussing a year or so ago, coming up with a standard. My point of view is that we should support the envirorunental groups in terms of coming up with fish and wildlife standards that make sense, but we should also support the work like San Jose is doing in terms of what the impact of discharge standards are in terms of the toxicological impacts on fish and wildlife and what happens in the bay that might mitigate that. Also, I get the impression that everyone sees point sources as being the only thing we can get our hands on, so let’s do that first because it is the least costly° I am not MINUTES UAC:04/03/96 Final Page 30 convinced that that is true. As time goes on, we ought to put a little more emphasis on figuring out what measures we can take to reduce nonpoint sources, thus allowing ourselves more leeway on the point sources. That is where I am coming from. Mr. Bobel: Here is a summary of our Clean Bay Plan which does address both point and nonpoint dischargers. Commissioner Eyerly was asking what are we doing with industry and how do we do it. This is a summary of it. Our Clean Bay Plan is actually an inch-thick document that summarizes all of the control programs, both on point and nonpoint dischargers. One thing to note about this is that we have a contingency plan in there on Pages 16 and 17 which we call the Preliminary Copper Contingency Plan. It does not do exactly what Commissioner Grimsrud was alluding to. This particular page is just talking about the point source or the stuff that comes through the sewage treatment plant. But if the sewage treatment plant had to get greater copper reduction, this is a list of things we could further evaluate and execute. You will note that the very first one there relates to corrosion. Of course, that relates back to the diagram I showed you where 51% was coming from corrosion. You can see on this list other things that we have talked about from time to time. Let me assure you that in addition to looking into this stuff, we are also looking into the nonpoint source stuff and are very active in it. An example that I believe we talked about last time is the break pad item. Our best estimate is that of all of the copper going into the south bay, somewhere around 35% of it is coming from brake pad wear. Only 15% is coming from all three sewage treatment plants, yet as much as 35% may be coming from this one source, over which the City of Palo Alto really does not have much control. So we try to balance activities over which we do have control and are within our purview, makingsure that we are working on the most cost-effective things. The way we have done that with brake pads is to form a partnership. This is Kelly’s baby. We helped form what we call the Brake Pad Partnership. Because Palo Alto is not the right agency to try and do something about brake pads, yet because it appears to be one of the most cost-effective things that could be done, we have helped spearhead an effort to investigate further and bring the right parties to the table to discuss this situation. We call this group the partnership, and we keep trying to convince everyone else to participate in it who are more appropriate than we are to end up doing something about it. So we are focused on that while trying to balance that against the fact that some of these are not really within our purview. Mr. Roberts: Mr. Chair, I would like to elaborate just a little further MINUTES UAC:04/03/96 Final Page 31 on the nonpoint source issue. You may wish to have us come back at a separate session with some more detail. Let me reassure you that Phil is being very modest in what he says. It is just the tip of the iceberg of the efforts being undertaken. There is a coalition of all the cities in Santa Clara County working on those issues through the Santa Clara County Water District. Phil, Kelly and others are active in that. We pursue these areas very aggressively, and we are headed toward trying to impact that element of the sources to the bay much more aggressively than has historically been the case. The Break Pad Partnership is a prime example of that, and both Phil and Kelly have been pursuing that issue, not just locally or regionally, but nationally, as well. Ultimately, that is something that hopefully USCP and USDOT would want to get involved with, much as they did with leaded gasoline 25 years ago. If we can pursue that, I feel we could make a major impact there. They have both been to national conferences on that very topic° Mr. Bobel: One thing that relates to that which I wanted to mention because Commissioner Grimsrud was a champion of it at past meetings is that these things on the contingency plan that we have listed are items that we hope to stick into the model we are developing for cost comparisons. When and if we have to make tough decisions at the sewage treatment plan about doing some of these things, we would be able to come back to you with cost comparisons, cost per pound of pollutant removed, and be able to have that information for you° We have a consultant working on a simple model that will make sure we are looking at apples and apples. When we are looking at very different types of control strategies where some of them are capital, some of them operating, we have to make sure we make the right assumptions. We thought it was worth.doing a little model and getting it all worked out, so we are working on that. The nonpoint source stuff could be plugged in there, too. Item 6.ao Information Report.. Co~er Piping Corrosion. Mr, Bobel: Next is corrosion. In the interests of time, I will just note that what Kelly has given you is three of four studies that we have recently completed, and the fourth is just about done. We have known for some time that corrosion was a major part of the copper problem, so we initiated these studies and are just wrapping them up. The fact sheet that is on top of them is all I am going to attempt to summarize for you. At the back of the report, the last page contains the Corrosion Action Plan. It says, ~RWQCP COPPER CORROSION ACTION PLAN°" As a result of these studies, we have developed this plan, and you will MINUTES UAC:04/03/96 Final Page 32 see that it is in two parts° One is "Actions in Progress" which are the things we are doing now, and ~Possible Actions." Those things we would only do if conditions changed. The two major conditions that might change are that we might get a final copper standard, which would mean we have to do something beyond what we are currently doing at the sewage treatment plant. That is one trigger. The other main possible trigger is that the drinking water regulatory framework will dictate corrosion control for purposes of reducing pollutants in drinking water. Either of those things could conceivably happen, but we are suggesting that the things in the right-hand column would be done if one of those two things happens. Let’s go over one of them by way of example. The one from which we could get the most copper reduction is listed first: Addition of Corrosion Inhibitor to the Water Supply. Palo Alto could add a chemical to the drinking water which would reduce corrosion. San Francisco could also, as our water supplier. We studied this, but are not recommending that it be done at this time. The action in progress that would show is to monitor the situation and continue to work on it. We say here, "Work with Palo Alto Utilities Department to test identified corrosion inhibitor strategy." Pilot work is the next logical step here, and we would intend to come back at a future meeting to discuss the piloting of this. We are not looking for the go-ahead on it at this time, but we would come back to you with a joint Utilities and Public Works Department proposal for piloting. We are working on that, but we do not have a proposal at this time. A possible action would be, of course to actually add the corrosion inhibitor. Our studies show that the best one to use would be orthophospate in a concentration of approximately one part per million. The next one relates to the use of non-copper piping materials. You are probably aware there that currently, it does not meet code to use plastic pipe indoors for residential use. So we do not show doing that now, but we do show, as a current activity, increasing public awareness and encouraging facility managers to use non-copper piping where it is legal. It is legal for exterior pipe and it is legal for industrial internal piping. So those are areas where we can now recommend its use but not require it. That is the proposed area. In the future, yQu see possible actions if it became legal to use it. Then we could behave in a different fashion, as outlined in the report. That would take one of the triggers to become true, and then it would take a change in code. Chairman Johnston: What I suggest is that since this was in our packet, MINUTES UAC:04/03/96 Final Page 33 I am happy to spend more time on it if people have questions, but I would suggest that you not go through it all. I am wide open to people asking questions. Commissioner Grimsrud: This looks very interesting, and what I would have liked to see possibly is a rough quantification of possible cost impacts. Cost is important, but of the 50% that is due to corrosion, how much of a bite would that take? Mr. Bobel: We have definitely done an estimate on that. Ms. Moran: You are actually looking for the contents of the fourth report which is just about to be published. The consultants estimate that about one-third, or 30% of that 50% would be eliminated through the addition of the corrosion inhibitor, the phosphate, at the concentration that is recommended. The data to support that estimate are actually in one of the three reports before you -- the linear polarization report. That is a pretty technical report, but it includes all of the laboratory chemical analysis that leads to the increased estimate of corrosion that we included in the Clean Bay Plan and that 30% reduction estimate that I am telling you now. Commissioner Grimsrud: So just as a comment, if you do something like this in real summary format, it would be good to put it right in there so we could get a feel for it. Ms. Moran: We did not have that estimate at the time we needed to prepare the sheet. We will have a dollars-per-pound estimate when we finish the fourth report. I do not know what that number will be because the consultant is still getting the last financial information, which is why the report was delayed. What I can tell you now is that that estimate is probably going to be on the order of several thousands per pound per pound of copper not discharged to the sewer. That will probably compare highly favorably to other methods that are currently being pursued or potentially could be pursued in the future for reduction of copper, which could add up to the tens and hundreds of thousands of dollars per pound, depending upon who is taking the action. Chairman Johnston: I believe that completes that item° I appreciate very much the update. I do have one question perhaps a little out of the bounds of this report, but within the general scope of what you discussed. As we move forward in the planning, one hears rumblings about their eventually being discharge requirements on storm water. Has MINUTES UAC:04/03/96 Final Page 34 there been any discussion of possible change in that picture? ~X_~: Do you mean numerical limits for storm water? (Yes) We continue to resist efforts to do that. At the national level, we believe that the correct interpretation of the statute is that they do not belong in permits. At this time, the regulatory agencies are supporting that position. I do not see any change there. If anything, there is kind of a hardening of that position even at the regulatory agenc level, so I think there would have to be a change in administration or a fundamental shift before we need to worry about quantitative limits on storm water. Chairman Johnston: Thank you very much, Phil. Item 6.c.i. Ten-Year Financial Forecast Update Chairman Johnston: Randy Baldschun will make the presentation. Mr. Baldschun: Good evening. Item 6.c. is the ten-year financial forecast for the four utilities -- water, gas, electric and wastewater collection. It is something that we provide for you every year, and the relevance of it is that it gives you a sneak preview of what kind of proposals will be coming to you in April. There is an error on the first page where it talks about a water rate increase of 9% for fiscal year 1997-98. It is actually a 7% increase. I might mention something else about that particular rate increase of 7%. In the water fund, we looked at the impact of a number of factors in an increased transfer to the general fund and the capital improvement program going up and some sluggish water sales. It looked like a double-digit rate increase, so we split it up into two years. We are starting to see some hope in water sales more recently, so although we were planning to have a subsequent rate increase in the water in 1997-98, if water sales in fact do better than we projected, we will forego that rate increase. As far as 1996-97, you see we have a 12% gas rate decrease, a 9% wastewater rate decrease, and a 6% water rate increase. No changes in the electric are proposed. Are there any questions? Chairman Johnston: I have a number of questions. First of all, understand that when you are doing these long-range forecasts, you tie in with the city planners, to some extent, in terms of a variety of issues. I am not quite clear where the large number of new customers is coming from, and whether they are actually new customers or whether it is essentially taking one meter in an apartment building and dividing it MINUTES UAC:04/03/96 Final Page 35 up. For example, if you look at the water utility, it goes from 23,000 customers to 31,000 customers in a ten-year period. That is 8,000 new customers. That seemed like a very large number, and I did not know if that was just because of subdividing meters or is there some explanation for that? I do not see the city having that much room to grow, frankly. Mr. Baldschun: To be honest with you, I am not sure how that number is calculated. My assumption is that it would be multiple-family, but I will have to check and see what formula was used to project the number of customers. Commissioner Grimsrud: I was also going to ask about these numbers. It looks as though for the first five years, the growth shows 30 additional customers per year. Then all of a sudden, between 1999 and 2000, it starts growing by a 1,000 or 1,300 or 1,500 customers per year, which does not seem possible. That is true not only for water but also for the electric, as well. It is the same kind of discontinuity. All of a sudden the growth rate goes crazy. I don’t think that is impacting your other numbers that much, because your peak demand has not gone up very much. I do not know what those numbers mean. Chairman Johnston: That is why I asked whether it was due to subdividing meters or something. Lucie Hermina: Actually, I adjusted for the first few years. The numbers for the end years are just an old projection of the number of customers. I did not adjust all of them. I just adjusted for the first few years to be able to have a good handle on how many customers do we think we have. I apologize for that. The number of customers does not affect the revenue, the demand° We do the demand separately° Chairman Johnston: Okay. I have another question that harps on a theme that you have heard me comment upon the last time. I feel it is clearly borne out here. The issue I raised about the way we finance our capital improvement program is such that we pay for it out of current revenues, and then it adds to the base that is used for calculating the transfers to the city. It has a a kind of compounding effect. If you look at that issue here, you will see that by the year 2056, the proposed transfer to the general fund becomes 20% of revenues for water. Last time, Randy, you did mention that you had been looking at this, recognizing that there was some problem. I would encourage you to see if we cannot find a way to solve that problem rather than just solving it by each year, looking at the budget and saying, well, that is a MINUTES UAC:04/03/96 Final Page 36 ceiling and we do not have enough money to pay for it and we will see if we can get the City Council to make some kind of a change. I think these numbers demonstrate that there really is a problem with this mechanism, and it really needs some fundamental solution. There is no particular reason why the return to the general fund should be a greater percentage ten years from now than it is now, simply because we paid more rates and replaced more pipelines. There is nothing in here that indicates that any measure of satisfaction or performance or anything like that is going to change in any way. That is just the way the method works. Mr. Mrizek: During the preparation of this year’s proposed budget, the utility staff did recognize this potential problem in the future. The numbers you see here are based on the current transfer policy, but the utility staff has held preliminary meetings with the Administrative Services Department and also with the City Manager, pointing out the potential of going up, as you say, Paul, to transfers reaching a 20% cut of the pie within the next ten years. This is a problem that staff will be looking at over the next budget year, and it will come back to the council probably prior to the second year of the two-year budget with some proposals and recommendations. Possibly a cap on the transfer could be one way. We really do not know what is going to happen, but we do .recognize this as a problem, especially in the water utility where the revenues are so low, compared to the transfer. Chairman Johnston: Again on the water utility, I am looking at the proposed rate changes and I am also looking at the average purchase rate. I am surprised to see that the average purchase rate rises as slowly as it does, given all of the updates we have been hearing from Jane Ratchye. I very much had the impression from the direction in which the San Francisco Water Department was going in terms of their various capital improvement programs and the various things that they were undertaking (and I believe they have announced a rate increase for their customers which I assume will come back and hit the other bay area users), so it just seems as though the price going from 70¢ per ccf only to 75¢ per ccf over the next four cycles seems very optimistic. At least, it does not seem to jibe with what we have been hearing from Jane, but maybe I have been misinterpreting that. Do you care to comment on that? Mr. Bocci~none: The proposals that we have been alluding to from the San Francisco PUC are preliminary, and they have not been adopted, so we have not reflected those in these forecasts. They are talking about big MINUTES UAC:04/03/96 Final Page 37 numbers that they may be proposing to spend, but they are not incorporated in any of their long-range plans, so they are not formed well enough for us to incorporate them. Within the next two years, they should not impact us. Chairman Johnston: I guess that is part of the art of longmrange forecasting, which is how you make assumptions about the future. You cannot just make assumptions about what has already been absolutely agreed to, or you would never project correctly. But I guess what you are saying is that there is enough speculation in those kinds of plans that they are reasonably not included in the current forecast. Mr. Habashi: A lot of the plans that San Francisco has in mind are likely to be built over the next few years, and they are not going to start collecting for it in the bonds until probably four or five years from now. That is probably why the next four cycles do not have a large rate increase. Even if they do a lot of these CIP projects that they have in mind, they are not likely to start collecting for them for a few years yet. Commissioner Grimsrud: I need to have a little bit better understanding of what the rate base is on Line I0. Mr. Baldschun: Primarily on net fixed assets.in the distribution system. There is also a working capital allowance, and that consists of one month’s water purchases cost plus two months of other O&M expenses. That formula is standard in the industry. It is unique to rate making. It is not something the CPAs would be aware of it, and it is similar to what the investor-owned utilitiesl use to calculate a rate base. I would say that 80 to 90% of it is not fixed assets. Commissioner Grimsrud: Okay, so the return on rate base then is what you use to get the transfer to the general fund° Mr. Baldschun: That is correct. C.~mmissioner Grimsrud: Going along with Paul, my feeling is that in looking at the relative health of the utilities, looking at the transfers, looking at the rate changes, if I were to mold this next year, I would probably say, let’s reduce the return on rate base for water and increase it for gas. With gas, we have a 12% rate decrease that we are talking about, whereas with water, we have a 6% increase. We are pretty much saying we are going to have about the same return on MINUTES UAC:04/03/96 Final Page 38 rate base. My feeling is, why don’t we have a return on rate base based on the health of the utility and also based on minimizing rate shock within~the individual utilities. Mr. Baldschun: I will try to give an easy answer to a complicated question. Getting back to the original ~Price Waterhouse study, what they said was, you calculate your rate base and you choose a rate of return within a certain range of reasonableness, with the lower end being long-term, risk-free investments which is around 6% right now. The high end of the range is what a corresponding investor-owned utility would earn from the California Public Utilities Commission. So it is California Water Service for the water, which is 9.86%, and PG&E’s recent rate of return is 9 something percent, too. The gas is at its high rate of return. It is at the ceiling. Water is at the ceiling. Your comments about suggesting a lower rate of return in the water fund has merit because of the fact that the water fund is not as strong as the other funds, and the competitiveness of the water rates do not enjoy the same advantages as do our gas and electric rates. All of these factors are going to be looked at this year. We are going to try and do a review of our water utility and compare it to other water utilities, looking at their policies and practices as far as financing and infrastructure. Do they have accelerated infrastructure programs or not? What kind of transfers to the general fund do they make? What kind of a formula? Are there any subsidies between the city and the water utility to make the rates lower? There is a whole range of revenue requirement items that go into a water rate. We are not just going to focus on one component. Hopefully, what will come out of the study, is that we will get a better sense of our water rates. We may find that they are little bit higher, but we will understand the reason why. It is because of this reason or that reason, or we will make recommendations to change some policies. I feel we have to do the study first and cover all of the bases, looking at what kind of recommendations we may want to make. Commissioner Grimsru~: I guess where I am coming from is, to some extent, given the discussion that Paul said, the whole calculation is, in a sense, bogus. Someone has invested X number of dollars and made an investment, bought some capital, and now, we are getting a return on capital. The city has not invested X number of dollars into the utility, and now, they are getting a payback. To me, it seems a little different. It also seems to me in this more competitive world that we ought to have a little more flexibility than in the past as to what kind of return on rates are reasonable. What is a reasonable ceiling? The MINUTES UAC:04/03/96 Final Page 39 electric utility has been very successful. Part of the reason why is that there were probably some council members back in the sixties that made excellent decisions. Why can’t we have a higher rate of return for the electric utility while we are in this situation? What I am trying to say is, the City Council wants to’have a transfer in this order of magnitude . How do we balance the transfers that make the most sense between the utilities? What I am thinking of, just to throw out numbers, is that I would think that for the water utility, a 6 to 8% rate of return would be reasonable, whereas in the gas in electric, I0 to 12% could be reasonable. Why not? Mr. Mrizek: I think what we have to look at, which Commissioner Eyerly would remember, having been a member of the council, that it really was not an adopted policy as far as transfers. They fluctuated all over the place back in the seventies before we had the Price Waterhouse study and a proposal to follow. This particular policy has worked well since it has been adopted. It is defendable. The various bonding agencies such as Standard & Poor’s or Moody’s has commended Palo Alto for such a proposal and policy, whereas other municipal utilities do not have such a proposal° I think Randy indicated last time what the transfer in Long Beach Gas was this year, where they had revenues of $82 million roughly, and their transfer was $32 million. They have no policy. We recognize that this is maybe not the best arrangement, but it is an excellent policy right now to follow, and as Randy and I have indicated, we want to look at maybe a chap, especially in the water utility, since that is your concern. We want to look at all costs in the water utility, not just transfers. Our capital program is very costly, but we think it is necessary. We want to look at that. .With the well study we are. proposing for next year, that may even increase the capital program even higher unless we possibly recommend some sort of a cap on the CIP in future years. Until the study is done, as Randy has indicated, I feel that we want to continue with the current policy that is in place, and continue the transfer during the next budget year as we were recommending. Chairman John ton: I have used the water utility, because I think it is the most exaggerated, both in terms of the percentages being proposed to be transferred, but also for the reasons that Paul indicated, that it is perhaps the most out of whack in terms of looking at some return based on performance. But in point of fact, if we are going to have a systam, the system has to be reasonably stable and look llke it is going to work in the long term. The system does not look like it is going to work in MINUTES UAC:04/03/96 Final Page 40 the long term for any of the utilities. Each one of the utilities is working in a situation where as you project forward, the percentage of the pie ~hat is being transferred is going up. It is going up faster in some than it is in others, but the percentage is going up. That is something that is fundamentally nonsustainableo It is perfectly reasonable that the dollar amount would go up because of inflation, etc., and you might have greater sales and all of that. I have no difficulty with that going up, but the idea that you can take a bigger and bigger slice out of a bigger and bigger pie fundamentally does not work. Not too long ago, there was a time period where there was kind of a capital improvement planning deficit that was recognized a few years ago, and they needed to spend more money on that. A program was put in place which is now being followed, and I am happy to see that it is being followed, but i’t may be that the current transfer plan works well when you have a deficit in your capital improvement programs because you can keep those percentages relatively stable over time. But given where we are today, you cannot keep them stable, and there is no business from which you can continually take a bigger and bigger slice of the pie and expect it to work.So I think all we are saying is, there is a real problem with this.Maybe Price Waterhouse blessed it and said it was okay some time ago,but it does not look okay when you look into the future. If you take the position that we always have the option of reducing it, then I think arguably, you are getting back into the exact same situation you were before where it is really arbitrary. The ceiling is always looked at as an arbitrary ceiling, and each year, you are going to try and figure out what to do. So I do not quite know what is the best way of taking this issue forward, but I just think something needs to happen, and not just with one utility. The electric utility is also affected by this. Mr. Baldschun: One of the problems is that it is the council policy, so I think the direction would have to come from the council. Chairman Johnston: Let me respond to that. I agree that it comes from the council, but I see our job as being the provider of recommendations to the council. Part of our job is that if we see a policy that is being put in place which may have been very appropriate at the time but is looking like it is not going to work in the future, I see it as part of our job to go back to the council and say, look, we don’t think this is working, and we would llke you to reconsider the policy. I think the only issue, then, is what is the best mechanism for that. I agree that it is their policy. MINUTES UAC:04/03/96 Final Page 41 Mr Bid chun: There are two other observations I would like to make. One is that most water utilities probably use a percent of gross revenue° That percentage tends to be arbitrary. If we were ’to use that formula here in our utilities, you would see the transfers going up, as well, because our revenues climb over a ten-year period. So it is the same problem you are raising with the utility enterprise methodology. You want to base it on performance, but yet, if you increase water rates because the San Francisco Water Department increased wholesale water costs, why should the city get another chunk of that transfer. Those kinds of formulas, whatever formula or index you use, is going to increase the transfer. I do not have an answer for you right now, but I feel that it bears consideration. The other point is that before we adopted the utility enterprise methodology, the electric utility transferred 33% of its revenue to the general fund. Mr. Mrizek: On your question, Paul, on the best mechanism, in the month of May we will bring to you the utilities budget rates and reserves and ask the UAC for a recommendation to approve that proposed budget document. Your recommendation, with any changes or proposals, will then be carried forward to the Finance Committee which meets later in May, and then on to the council for budge adoption in late June. So as far as mechanism, that would be the appropriate time during your review of the budget next month. Chairman Johnston: Thank you. Commissioner Chandler: I would like to add a comment to this discussion I have listened to the two of you engaged in with Ed and Randy. I think that the whole issue of transfers to the general fund and the methodology for it is a very, very complex legal and regulatory set of issues. I understand very well Ed’s conservatism in not wanting to mess with it, so to speak. A consistent methodology was provided to the city that would withstand the types of assault that some might make on that and which has provided a measuring rod that we could follow over time. I hear what you are saying, and I see the issue that is coming out of this, but I feel that it needs to be approached from a very, very systematic standpoint so that if we are going to review, usi.ng that methodology, I don’t think it can be from a casual, brainstorming approach of saying that there are problems with the numbers going forward, given the size of the rate base. I think that we would want to pursue that in a very, very careful way, bringing-the issue to the City Council and engaging someone, such as we did in the past with Price Waterhouse, to examine alternative methodologies and determine whether, MINUTES UAC:04/03/96 Final Page 42 given the numbers in front of us, there is a basis for improvement. If there is not a basis for improvement, then so not move. But I am very concerned about a discussion that, to me, seamed a little bit intellectually honest but cavalier relative to the complexities of the legal and regulatory issues that are associated with this problem. Chairman Johnston: I am tempted to agree that the legal and regulatory issues here are complex, but I am also struck by the fact that anything goes. We had a presentation last week in which there was a discussion of the different rules and different percentages that we use in a variety of other utilities. What becomes clear from that in spite of the complex legal and regulatory issues is that the data and the methodology are absolutely all over the map. I would absolutely agree with you, Mark, that if we were going to propose something different, I think we ought to get specialized help in terms of doing that. That direction would have to come from council. I would agree with that. What I am interested in doing is getting this issue before council so that they can at least hear the arguments that I and some others would make that the current methodology is not a good one. Maybe it was appropriate at the time, but it bears review, and council could choose to ignore that, or they could choose to agree with that and suggest, as a mechanism, possibly retaining again Price Waterhouse or possibly doing something else. I would agree with Mark that I don’t think we would just sit here and propose a policy. I would not want to propose a policy of what sh~ould replace it. I simply would point out some of the problems associated with it, and also point out that it does not appear as though we should be locked into this approach, given the great variability of approaches used by other entities. Perhaps given that the picture does not look good for using this methodology in the future, it is time to have it professionally reviewed. So I would agree with Mark’s comments. Commissioner Eyerly: I think the residents in Palo Alto are probably smarter than some of the residents in some of these other cities that we looked at where the rate return is all over the map. The reason that Price Waterhouse was brought into this city for a study years ago was because of threats of whether the rates had become a tax instead of a rates. That is a very vlable threat when you have some very large users of your utilities. If you cannot support what you transfer to the general fund by a methodology that is reasonable and comparable to, say, the corporate utilities, there is that threat. That is why we tried to get away from it, and it has worked quite well over these periods of years. There have been a couple of things that have come up that have MINUTES UAC:04/03/96 Final Page 43 come to my mind. It was mentioned at our last meeting that the rate payers pay twice when they fund the improvements and when they transfer to the general fund. That is true, but if the general fund had to put up the money for the improvements in the utilities to come out of the general fund, they would only be able to do it by bonding. The interest payments on the bonding would probably be double the expense for the general fund. So I think it is proper to do it under the rates, and think we can support that. One thing that has come to mind that might be an improvement on the Price Waterhouse structure, which Paul has been talking about because he is very familiar with pipe and costs, is if we replace the piping in the city infrastructure, that is a large increase in our capital improvements. I have learned that we depreciate that infrastructure, and I am not sure that is the right thing to do. You always have to have the infrastructure. You always have to have your pipe, your poles, your wire, etc. I am not sure that it should be depreciated so that it goes up and down. When you have to replace it, then you have a larger amount of inventory to figure your transfer. think it ought to be considered that maybe it ought to be a constant price unless you increase the amount of wiring that you have or the amount of pipe° You would have to have a factor in there for the increase of inflation in it, but that might stabilize it instead of its going sky high as we go into a capital improvement, and everything is depreciated down to zero and up we go to a large amount. There may be other things like that that staff is thinking about in their studies that might make some improvements in the way we handle things. Commissioner Grimsrud: I support Paul’s position in that. I think we should look at this over a longer term, not just between now and next month. Maybe what Fred says is right. Maybe what is needed are adjustments to this methodology, but I think we do need to sit back and look at it over a long period of time and perhaps get some outside help. The trend, particularly for the water utility, does not look good. Rather than just sit back and say okay, we are going to do the Price Waterhouse proposal, I think we need to look at the fundamentals of that and see if there can be an adjustment that can be made, so I support Paul"in that. Mr. Baldschun: We agree that the trend does not look good for the water fund, but it is also our assumption that when council looks at the trend and when council sees the impact on water rates, they will agree with a reduced~rate of return on rate base. They have done that historically. You saw the graphs last month where they took no return on rate base for one year during the drought, and they took a reduced rate of return on MINUTES UAC:04/03/96 Final Page 44 rate base’for a couple of years during the drought. The formula has flexibility there. It is a matter of the council getting the facts, getting the information, and then making a decision. If you read the Price Waterhouse report, which is fairly thick, there is an executive summary that we handed out to you in the rate workshop in January. You get a sense of what criteria the council should consider. In my mind, it does not matter what method you use. The most important criterion is comparative rates. There is no formula that is going to satisfy everyone, because if there was, we would all be using it. The key is, what is the impact? Is the formula that we have for the water fund right now going to push our rates to an uncompetitive level? If that is the case, my assumption is that the council would probably take a reduced rate of return. Chairman Johnston: item. If there are no other comments. That completes this (Commissioner Chandler leaves the meeting.) Item 6.c.2.Information on Rate Increase to Augment the Calaveras Reserve. Chairman Johnston: Randy Baldschun will make this presentation also. Mr. Baldschun: This is in response to last mont’s meeting. I am not going to go into it at. any great length, but I hope this provides you with the kind of information you were looking for in terms of what kind of rate impacts might we see in the electric fund if we decided that we wanted to fund the Calaveras Reserve at a level that is higher than that which is based on the base case. So we have charts attached to the report showing six scenarios. I will end it there and open it up for questions. Chairman Johnston: I am looking at the first of the two charts at the back of the report, which I found to be extremely helpful and insightful, as I did the report in general. I appreciate your doing this, and it did very much respond to the issues that we raised. I will start out by asking a side question about PG&E. Do I understand their recent announcement correctly to indicate that they are essentially fixing their electric rates for a period of the next five years? Mr. Baldschun: My understanding is that they have announced that they MINUTES UAC:04/03/96 Final Page 45 are going to freeze electric rates through the end of 2001 and that they will go to market pricing for all of their customers beginning in 2002. That is a one-year earlier timeframe than we had previously understood. Chairman Johnston: Looking at the next to last chart in the report, "Rate Impact Comparison of Alternative Calaveras Stranded Cost Scenarios," I notice ~with all three strategies, the medium, medium-high and high strategies, even if we do a 3% increase this year, as we had requested that you take a look at, we are still projecting that there will be further increases required over that same time period where PG&E is going to remain constant. The way I look at it is, I am not really sure what the argument is for delaying the increases. If you bring the increases forward, you clearly give us greater flexibility with regard to responding to different stranded cost scenarios. If we started with the medium one today and in a couple of years time, we decided no, it is closer to medium-high as things changed over time, the more we bring things forward, it seems to me the better position we will be in, and we would not be in a situation where, over the Same time period, we are looking at PG&E’s rates and saying, as long as we stay below them, they are moving up and we can move up along with them a little bit. So to me, this study reinforces my feeling that we ought to be recommending a rate increase. That is partly because of the fact that we are going to be projecting increases over this time period anyway, and it is also for the reasons we discussed at great length the last time having to do with my feeling, shared by some of the other commissioners (possibly all, do not recall) that looking at the medium scenario is perhaps not the appropriate thing to do. So what I get out of this is that I think we should be proposing a rate increase this year, and the only question in my mind is whether 3% is the appropriate one, or whether something like 5% would bemore appropriate. Mr. Mrizek: As Randy indicated in his presentation last month when you asked that these alternate studies be brought to you, this is the first year, and this is just based on one study year and one set of numbers. Based on that and on our staff recommendations, the medium stranded cost is the level we feel we should be at at this time. As we progress in the future, we will be upgrading these studies and will have additional information. Staff believes we still have time to have a rate increase next year or in subsequent years beyond that. However, with the new policy we are taking to the council on Calaveras, we are adding to this year $15.9 million to the Calaveras Reserve, and we are very healthy in our rate stabilization reserve. We believe that this is an excellent starting year, and staff does not feel that a rate increase is necessary MINUTES UAC:04/03/96 Final Page 46 to go beyond what we are recommending in this first year. Commissioner Grimsrud: I agree with staff. It seems like for the last couple of years, the utilities have almost been making more money than they know what to do with. I don’t know why that it is, but maybe it is because the forecasts are on the negative side and -- Mr. Baldschun:were good! Commissioner Grimsrud: My sense is that if the rainfall continues to look good and the hydrology looks good and the Pacific Northwest looks good, we will probably beat our forecast again this year. Therefore, the information I have right now supports your position. I am not ready to pour a huge amount of money into this reserve until I have better information. So waiting a year for a rate increase makes sense to me. Commissioner Everly: I feel that the amount of money that is recommended for transfer to the Calaveras Reserve is probably about as much as we ought to go for. Right now, if I were on the council, I think I would have a problem with that much money starting out to go into the Calaveras Fund and the rate increase to put some more in until certain things have been done. Randy, in his report, has brought up a number of questions and assumptions that needs to be addressed, and probably rightfully so so that we have a little bit better handle on what we really need to do, and target this for the council for 1997-98, with discussion going forward on our level this fall. That is what I take it your report is saying. There is one thing I have noticed that I am wondering about. In the last report we had on the ten-year financial forecast, Randy mentioned that there was a decrease in electric rates at 3% for fiscal year 1997- 98 which has been dropped. Are you thinking about the Calaveras and the 3% we got in this other report, or how did you do that? Mr Baldschun: It gets back to what Paul said. We projected the 3% decrease because our rate stabilization reserve (RSR) was overflowing. So we are recommending that about $15.9 million be transferred from the RSR to Calaveras. That forecast was done a month or two ago. Since then, there have been revised projections of expenses in the electric fund which are whittling down what we thought we were going to have in the RSR, and we would have fallen below the minimum. So we dropped the rate decrease. We would have dropped it regardless of the Calaveras MINUTES UAC:04/03/96 Final Page 47 proposal, because we would not want to be below the minimum in the RSR. Commissioner Eyerly: I take it from what you say in your report that you are going to bring this back to the UAC in the first half of 1996-97 with some more assumptions covered and thoughts put into it. In the discussions we have had, I think we all feel that we really must look at the stranded costs and intelligently move more money over into the Calaveras Reserve. Staff is going to do that, I take it from your report, without having any doubt. Mr. Baldschun: Absolutely. Right now, we really do not have a lot of confidence in the numbers. When we met last month, since then, I have seen two legitimate changes to the model. One was a change based on the ~assumption of the output of the Calaveras, which was a little bit more pessimistic, and it made our stranded costs go up. In the report last month, we indicated that we needed to fund the Calaveras Reserve to 2016. Now with this change, it goes to 2020. We have a report going into the council packet this week on the Calaveras proposal, and the numbers are different from what you saw last month. There is another change that is not even in the report going to council regarding our O&M expenses associated with Calaveras, which is changing the numbers again. The numbers are constantly changing, so I think we all need to do a lot more analysis on the stranded costs and figure out what the ramifications are, because none of us know. We have more questions than we have answers. We know we have to protect the electric fund’s financial stability, but we see ample time and a window of opportunity to do it. When you look at the alternate scenarios, whether you go with the 3% now or you go with the 8% next year, what tells me is that under the worst scenario, we can accommodate these rate increases and that 15 or 20% over a five-year period is not a killer deal. We increased water rates 56% one year, so when I look at these numbers, I do not see it as a situation that is alarming. In fact, I was pleased to see that we could accommodate these kinds of rate increases and fund the Calaveras under the worst case scenario. But we have a lot of questions we still should bring to you and that you should bring to us between now and December. ~ Chairman Johnston: Ed, as I recall a couple of months ago, you mentioned we were going to get a report on the overall stranded cost situation, not just the Calaveras, but including the transmission project, just an overall evaluation of stranded costs° Mr. Mrizek: I believe that is coming in June. That is what Tom Habashi MINUTES UAC:04/03/96 Final Page 48 and his staff are shooting for° MOTION: Chairman Johnston: I am going to propose a motion here that is not addressed to the issue specifically whether there should or should not be a rate increase this year. It addresses the issue that we discussed at great length the last time, that is, whether it is appropriate to use a medium stranded cost scenario for purposes of planning for stranded costs. I move that use of the medium stranded cost approach is not appropriate ~nd that I would like staff to consider what higher level, other than the 50th percentile being the medium stranded cost, might be reasonable, given the downside risks of what happens if you bet wrong, moving into the competitive environment. So I move_ that the medium stranded cost is not the appropriate planning strategy for stranded costs and that, in fact, something shooting higher than that (although I Will not say whether it is medium-high or high) is appropriate. Commissioner Grimsrud: I am a proponent of looking at distributions or financial risk profiles using more than one scenario. So I would not back that motion, because it implies that you are going to select one scenario and say, okay, we are going to base our decision on that. I am interested in looking at a number of scenarios and looking at the financial risk over the long term, given a certain probability that this will occur, this will occur, and this will occur. I think the point is right and we do not want to get just the medium scenario and that’s it, and that is an appropriate comment, but I do not feel we should say, okay, we are going to base our decision on a medium-high scenario. feel what we should do is to look at a number of scenarios that band certain levels of probability, and then assess what our risk profile is, based on that. Chairman Johnston: Let me clarify my motion. It is that the medium stranded cost scenario is not an appropriate mechanism for planning for stranded costs. That is the motion I am proposing, and that staff comeback with another suggestion which could be a probabilistic approach, or it could be an approach of picking some other percentile, but some approach other than medium stranded costs. Commissioner EyerlT: That motions sounds all right, but why no simplify it by saying that staff will bring back a variety of scenarios, as Commissioner Grimsrud is talking about. You have brought several to us this time, and I would like some more. I would think that is what they are planning, and I don’t think should plan on the medium alone. We MINUTES UAC:04/03/96 Final Page 49 ought to have higher, and maybe lower, whatever they feel as they go into it. Chairman Johnston: Let me explain the reason why I a~ proposing a motion here. Last month, staff told us that they believe that the medium stranded cost approach is the appropriate approach. We asked them to come back and show us some other data, and in fact, they showed us some other data last month in terms of high and low issues, la am sure that staff will come and show us a variety of issues that we can look at, but fundamentally, staff, no matter what they are showing us, have a belief that the medium stranded cost is the right approach. I do not agree with that, and I believe from the comments that have been made by this commission that other members of the commission do not believe that either. I want to make it very clear that there is a distinction between simply asking that other data be prepared and essentially a policy statement from the standpoint of the commission saying that we do not endorse a medium stranded cost approach. I am looking to not endorse a medium stranded cost approach. I would like that to be on the record. If I do not have support that, I can change the motion, but that is the essence of what I am trying to make clear. Commissioner EyerlT: How have you arrived at the opinion that the medium stranded cost approach is not the proper one to follow when the questions here that they want to study have not yet been answered? How do you pick out medium as being improper? Chairman Johnston: The reason I believe the medium approach does not work is if we go back to the discussion we had last month in which Randy indicated that over the years, the staff has used a medium approach generally for budgeting purposes, for rate setting, etc., and I agree with that for that application, because in the past, if you set rates a little too low one year or a little too high one year, you could fairly easily adjust in the following year. I feel that with the stranded cost scenario, we are in a situation where we have more control over our rates over the period between now and 2003 or thereabouts than we are likely to have after that time period. After that, we will certainly have control of our rates, but we not have control over the people who pay those rates if we do not set them to their liking. So the environment is such that if we make the bet the wrong way, the long-term viability of the utility is at risk. I think that that needs to be taken into account, and in taking that into account, you do not end up saying that the medium stranded cost approach is the correct approach. I would endorse what Paul says which is that if you could look at some MINUTES UAC:04/03/96 Final Page 50 risk-based approach, that would probably be the best way to come up with how you ought to do your long-range planning. I certainly would endorse that. We would have to see how the reports came back and what tools we would use, etc., but I simply think that in a situation where we have control over our rates in the immediate time period and beyond, once the competition kicks in and we open up our city, do not have that flexibility in the back end, so as a planning tool, it seems t be inappropriate. I think that as you get more information, the. differences between what you might call a medium approach or a medium- ~high and a high will tends to narrow. As you get more information, the range of possibilities becomes less. That obviously will be accounted for as we move forward here. I a just looking at the fundamental issue, is it appropriate to use best estimate? In an environment beyond 2003 or thereabouts, we have some serious limitations on our rate control. I would like to see us say that the medium stranded cost approach is not the appropriate approach. Mr. Baldschun: If I could just make the staff position clear on this, in the report we talk about using the base case scenario for 1996-97. That is the proposal to transfer the $15.9 million, but we are not locked into ’that, and no decision has been made that that is the best scenario to use. What we are saying in the report is that we are going to come back to the UAC and evaluate what the appropriate target should be. It even says, "pending the outcome of this review, a rate increase may be necessary if it is appropriate to establish a higher target balance for the reserve." So what we are saying is, we are open to changing the target level, but right now, we do not have the information that can justify that. We want to spend some time evaluating it. If it is appropriate, we would recommend a higher balance. If it is not, then we will not. Chairman Johnston: Right, and I understand that. The way I interpret that, from the comments you made last month and also from those you just made, is that your approach is that right now, you are using a medium stranded cost approach and these are what the numbers look like. In a year’s time, we will still look at the medium stranded cost approach. The numbers will be different because you will have better data, and the numbers will change over time so that your best estimate of what the stranded cost will be will also change over time. Mr. Baldschun: No, in six months we will come to you and we will make_ a decision on which case is the best case. Is it the medium-high? Is it the medium? Is it the high? Is it somewhere in between? In six MINUTES UAC:04/03]96 Final Page 51 months, the plans are to have that decision made. So we are not planning on adopting this base case in finitum. It is something we are adopting on an interim basis until we complete the study. Once that is done, then the results of the study will justify the appropriate level. We need to study all of the ramifications that I list in the report. There are fundamental assumptions that we are all making here that no one has really sat down and talked about. We want to get those out on the table so that we can understand exactly what are the ramifications of stranded cost. What are our options in dealing with them? Before we can develop a strategy to deal with them, we have to get a good handle on stranded cost, and I don’t think we have that right now° Commissioner Grimsrud: It sounds like we are all in general agreement. I might propose to change the motion that you will not limit the analysis or presentation to just the medium stranded cost approach. I think you are saying that you will not do that. It may be that in certain kinds of analyses, the medium case works, so I do not want to propose a policy that we never use the medium case, but in this analysis, I agree with Chairman Johnston that that is probably not the most desirable case. But as long as you present us with all of the different types of cases and not just limit it to that, I am comfortable with it. At this point, Paul, the information has been transferred and we are in general agreement. I am not sure that a motion is needed. Commissioner Eyerly: Why don’t you put your motion on the floor for the record. MOTION: Chairman Johnston: I would make an alternate motion to not limit the analysis and presentation of the stranded cost issue to just the medium stranded cost case but to look at a whole distribution of cases so that we can assess the financial risks of the various cases, and select the right ones. SECOND: By Commissioner Eyerly. MOTION PASSES: Chairman Johnston: I can support that. I think that is what we are already doing. All in favor? (Passes 3-0, with Commissioners Eyerly, Grimsrud and Johnston voting aye and Commissioners Chandler and Sahagian absent). I will not try another motion, but I want to be very careful that we are not dealing here with issues of semantics. When I talk about the medium stranded cost approach, I do not mean that we are talking about trying to achieve a target of $31,597,000 in 2003. That is a current projection ofa medium stranded MINUTES UAC:04/03/96 Final Page 52 cost approach. If you look at these six months from now, we will have a different number for each of these, but we could still have what would be called a medium stranded cost approach and a medium-high and a high. There would just be different numbers on those, because our assumptions would be better. Hopefully, the numbers would converge. What I am after is not just looking at a variety of issues, but trying to move toward a getting a more conservative policy. Commissioner Grimsrud: To put a little closure to this, it reminds me of when we first got started about five years ago. In those days, in very early meetings we were being presented with benefit-to-cost ratios for, say, a stig unit. It was expected value. We didn’t like that, and we went through a big process and developed an IRP process where you actually did very nice probabilistic analyses and did financial risk profiles of various scenarios. I think the staff is very capable of doing that sort of thing, and I feel that that sort of an analysis is worthwhile in this case, as well. Item 6.c.3. Information on Calaveras County Aqreement with NCPA Chairman Johnston: This item will be covered by Tom Habashi. Mr. Habashi: This report was made in response to some questions that Commissioner Eyerly asked last month. We do not have a presentation prepared, but we are here to answer any questions. Commissioner Eyerly: I am happy to see the report and to have had you look over the contract so that we really know what it says. It points out that we have a very valuable, long-term resource, so the efforts we are putting into stranded costs for Calaveras are very appropo at this time. We certainly do need to surmount those to protect this valuable resource, which I expect will get more valuable with time.Thank you for the report. Mr Habashi: My pleasure. C~_airman Johnston: It seems as though we get this nice window from 2024 to 2032. Once we get rid of the debt (hopefully before then), we will have a pretty good focus on the O&M costs of operating the facility, which I understand are also somewhat high. Mr. ~abashi: We will try to do that in the couple of years. not wait that long. We will MINUTES UAC:04/03/96 Final Page 53 Chairman Johnston: I understand that. We would like to be reaping some very big rewards by the time we get out there, and not start addressing that issue only then. Thanks for the report. It clarified some issues that I certainly was not aware Ofo Item 6.d. FY 1996-97 Demand Side Management Prouram Recommendations. Mr. Habashi: item. Blake Heitzman will make a short presentation on this Blake Heitzman, Manager of Competitive Assessment Group: In an effort to get information to the UAC prior to the budget process, staff brought forward a proposal for DSM funding last October. This presentation is a follow-up to that with more specific information about proposed DSM programs. The programs will be rolled into the budget report in May for final consideration at that time. We are considering that tonight, UAC approval would, of course, be contingent upon that final budget approval in May. In October, the proposal that went to the UAC set a budget ~between 3/4 of a percent and one-and-a-quarter percent for DSM funding so that the DSM programs would not go into an IRP process as in the past and be competing with supply resources. It would be competing against itself for the DSM funding. Six criteria were set in that October report that we used to. sort through the programs and give them various values. Also in that report, it was recommended that three kinds of programs be developed -- those that are at belt load, those that are at load neutral, and those that are at decreased load. Initially, staff developed a list of potential programs, and the list came from programs that were introduced in the 1995 electric IRP, programs that we knew other utilities were using, just a general brainstorming between staff members and also customer input that came to us through our field reps. To these approximately 40 different ideas that we came up with, we applied the six criteria. Those that are rejected are in an appendix at the back of the report. We used two criteria as filters. They were a go or a no go, and we culled out the programs that did not pass the filters° One filter was marketability, which to us meant, are we able to get this program on the street by July? Another marketability issue would be,. is this a new technology that we are uncomfortable with trying to put on the street right now? A second filter was customer acceptance. It was an opinion of customer acceptance that came from the previous end use survey that we had a couple of years ago, and also from a recent survey that we made of randomly selected customers. If we felt that a program would not be acceptable to customers, we culled it out. MINUTES UAC:04/03/96 Final Page 54 We used the final four criteria to place value on the various programs that were left after the culling process. Environmental benefit was one of the four criteria. We measured environmental benefit and tons of pollutant that would be reduced. We used a gas turbine as a marginal resource for offsetting electrical generation. We used DOE values on pollutants that come from the gas turbine, and used CUC values for relating pollutant values. In other words, a pound of nox is equal to 200 pounds of CO2. There was a CUC report that related the different weights of pollutants. For gas combustion, we just took the reduction and combustion products from gasol, pipeline quality gas, and there was also some CFC reduction where we used estimates of leakage of CFCs from existing compressors. That basically is how we got the environmental benefit number. The Customer Satisfaction Value number came from our customer survey of nine major customers and approximately 30 non-key customers. We asked them how they valued various elements of DSM and on what they placed the most value. The Competitive Value was based on a combination of customer satisfaction value and the customer segment that the program addressed. In other words, if it addressed key customers who were at risk, we considered it to have more competitive value than if it addressed residential customers who are less likely to leave the system. Costs were staff costs, and city funds were applicable and program operating cost lost revenue was issued as a different number in a table. In Table i, a summary table, it gives you the programs that we came up and the different values associated with those programs based on those criteria values that I just discussed. These are the programs that we are recommending for implementation, starting in July of this year, the next fiscal year. That gives you a brief overview and I can take questions. Commissioner Grimsrud: I would like to go through the report and make some points. On the Analysis, it looks like you have made some estimates of load impact in order to get the environmental impacts.Is that right? Mr. He~zman: Yes, that is correct. Commissioner Grimsrud: To me, there is information not found here that I feel would be worthwhile. One is the estimated megawatt load impact during peak loads and megawatt hour load over the year by program, the potential range of bill impacts for the customer. In other words, what is the beneficial impact? Also, for each program or for the whole suite MINUTES UAC:04/03/96 Final Page 55 of programs, what the rate impact is to the nonparticipants, i.e., the general rate payer. Mr. Heitzman: We did run the numbers for the rate impact for the general rate payer. It was 0.3% per year, so we considered it to be insignificant compared to the other rate impacts that would be occurring due to other -o Commissioner Grimsrud: That would be useful information to include in the report. In the program for industrial comprehensive efficiency, one thing that interests me is whether there is a way that we can enter into contracts with these people, besides just improving customer satisfaction? If we said, okay, we are going to invest so much money in helping you, but we want to have some assurance that you are going to stay in our system. Mr. Heitzman: As you will notice, most of these programs deal with gathering information from the customers about their facilities and also about our system in general. If you look at the whole list, there is a lot of study going on. One of the proposed programs is a financing study program. In that program, we would address the possibilities of forming contracts, etc., with customers on that basis. We did not feel comfortable with trying to launch a program this July that had those kinds of bells and whistles, so to speak. We did not feel that we could gear up quickly enough to have a good program that had all of those things appropriately without doing a more detailed study. Commissioner Grimsrud: It looks like you have a budget here of $707,000 for that first program. Is that per year, so that for nine customers, you are spending $707,000? Mr, Heitzman: That is a two-year figure. Commissioner Grimsrud: That is a fairly significant amount, although these nine customers, I am sure, have very large revenues. I guess as time goes on, what I would like to feel is some comfort that our DSM investments in these large customers will reap some return. Mr, Heitzman: We hope so too! ~_~mmissioner Grimsrud: I guess that is the whole, idea. Customer satisfaction may be the best way to do it, but I am wondering if there are other ways to do it, as well, that makes it more secure. MINUTES UAC:04/03/96 Final Page 56 Mr. H_~bashi: If the competition were to heat up in 1998 or thereabouts, we would seriously start to look at contracts with customers to keep them in the Palo Alto system for a little while. We will look at it from a comprehensive standpoint, taking into account DSM, as well as a few other things we can do for them at that time. Commissioner Grimsrud: My last set of questions relate to Appendix B, "Study opportunities to defer investments in capital improvements on the transmission and distribution system." Is part of that to get better load research data on your transmission and distribution, or do you have load research? Mr~ Heitzman: We do not have a lot of load research on your system, per se. We had it on a per-customer basis, but not on substations, etc. I think we have one recorder at a substation. Generally, this is a follow-up on a study that was conducted a few years ago, and we are essentially looking at working in cooperation with the engineering staff to follow up on that study and see if there are some things that can be done with DSM to help defer capital improvement costs. So as you can see, there is not much money involved here. Commissioner Grimsrud: Are you talking direct load control or load management or something to minimize spiky peaks? Mr. Heitzman: Those are all possibilities. There are other possibilities if there are locations in our system (and this is all hypothetical since the study has not yet been done), if there are segments of the system that may need capital improvement that could be deferred if the load could be reduced, the spikes, either through load control or just something at the customer facility that brings down their peak, then that is something we want to look at in cooperation with our engineering staff and see if that could be achieved. Commissioner Grimsrud: Do you have recorders that you can just plug out there and do some load research? Mr. Heitzman: They are hard wired. Most of our recorders, the ones that we are working with now, are wired in with phone wire. We remotely have telemetry to examine them. They are fairly easy to get in, but they are hard wired, so you can’t just pick them up and’move them. Commissioner Grimsrud: On ~Study feasibility of municipal-o~ned distributed generation," I am wondering if there is going to be any work MINUTES UAC:04/03/96 Final Page 57 done on reliability demands, i.e., through your customer surveys or whatever, and try to determine what level of reliability the various customers need, thereby using distributed generation to improve’ that or assure them of this level of reliability. I guess the first step is, are we getting information on that? Mr, Heitzman: On the reliability level needed by customers? (Yes) I am trying to think of whether this is covered in a pervious study or not. Mr. Habashi: Actually, we were planning on putting something together to survey the customers and see what kind of reliability and other issues they would like to see addressed. However, we have put things on hold somewhat since earlier this evening, you heard from the organizational review consultant that they will be doing something similar to this. We want to make sure we are not duplicating their efforts. If they are going to do the work, we will take the information that will be coming from them and use that to establish the on-site generation program. Commissioner Grimsrud: My last question has to do with the budge~ of $238,600 for alternative fuel vehicles. Is that for the cost of the study? Mr. Heitzman: It is about one-half for study and one-half for demonstration, approximately. It indicates that $150,000 is demonstration dollars, so the study is a little less than half. That is supposed to be a comprehensive study of both electric and natural gas vehicles projecting ten years into the future, as well as infrastructure changes that might be needed. It is supposed to be a very thorough study of what might become of those two eventual load builders there. Also, environmental benefits. Chairman Johnston: I have a question about that particular item also. On these alternative fuel vehicles, is there any reason to rethink this, in light of the new decision on zero-emisslons for electric vehicles in California? On the one hand, we want to be ahead of the curve a little, but on the other hand, part of what we are looking at is having infrastructure to respond to needs when those vehicles come along. Given what has happened, I am wondering if it is appropriate to rethink whether this is, in fact, the right time to be doing this study. Mr.Heitzman: My feeling on proposing this study was that at some MINUTES UAC:04/03/96 Final Page 58 point, we need to take a really comprehensive view of the political environment and the technical environment, etc. I suppose this study could be deferred for a year or two, but it seemed like at some point, we needed to step up and look at what our best projection of the future is going to be and be able to develop some kind of plan. The study may indicate that we do not need to do anything for two or three years because of this happening with the relief of the mandate. But it seemed like it is something that we just want to understand better, so although it could be deferred, there is some value in getting a handle on it now so that we can plan for it. There is also this fluctuating situation where, at one point, the mandate has been backed off, but then they are also saying that they want the automobile manufacturers to work cooperatively, etc., and proceed on their own. So there is some value in knowing where we might be in that picture now, even though the mandate has been pushed off. It seemed to me to be worth the dollars to go ahead and propose it. now rather than waiting to see what happens in the next cycle. Chairman Johnston: I do not recall whether, as a part of pushing that mandate back, if there were some agreements. I thought there were some agreements in terms of spending some research dollars. In other words, they did not have to produce the vehicles but there were some other requirements. I am wondering whether, in fact, there is an opportunity for Palo Alto to participate in that in a way that we do not put our dollars up, but we agree to look at it. I am not prepared to vote against this, because we have allocated a block of dollars and you are trying to find the best way of spending those dollars, but it seems as though the timing is premature. If it is not premature, it seems as though, in effect, there may be other dollars to do this study. Mr, Heitzman: I think you can look at these budgets as the maximum number of dollars that we expect to spend. In the process of developing the RFP for this study, we would be looking at support from wherever we could get it. In fact, if it is the automobile manufacturers who have to do the research and spend some money on it and we could latch onto some of their money, we would do that. So you can look at this as the maximum we would spend, and certainly, we would use every avenue possible, such as state funding, etc., to supplement our-dollars and lower our cost° Chairman Johnston: Let me go back through some of the other programs. Regarding Program#5, the Residential Coupon Program. I understand here that we have not specifically decided on which items you might provide MINUTES UAC:04/03/96 Final Page 59 coupons and that those programs will be evaluated as we go along. My feeling is that I would like to see that budget treated in the same manner as discussed previously, looking upon that as a maximum, but possibly considering not funding any of them. We went through this with the refrigerator rebate program, and I know there are other rebate programs that may prove to be better, but one of the questions I think we never had adequately answered was, when people are in the marketplace buying products and they have a choice of a more efficient product or a less efficient one, in a city like Palo Alto, do coupons make any difference in the choices that people make? Don’t people, in fact, make their choices for a variety of reasons not having to do with the coupon? Therefore, the coupon is handing out money and it just happened that it was in the same year that they wanted to buy the new product. We raised those issues before when we addressed the refrigerator rebate program, clearly with some softness conceptually in the program there, and it may be different for different products, but it seemed as though, when you did the analysis before, that effect was not really accounted for, and probably would not be fully accounted for in pursuing these. For that reason, in this town at least, I am generally opposed to these programs. As you mentioned here, they are going to have to pass your criteria, so I would suggest that you use the criteria pretty stringently. It is nQt clear to me that those things would pass if you really evaluated it properly. The last comment I want to make is on the photovoltaic program. The budget is very small for that, and we are just participating, as understand it, in SMUD’s program. Could you give me a little more detail as to why this is not something that we might pursue more aggressively in this town, as opposed to simply supporting research elsewhere? Mr. Heitzman: You have a good point. We could pursue it in Palo Alto. This project originally started with a larger dollar amount and potential for establishing some collectors, as an example, an experimental project here in Palo Alto. It was scaled back to fewer dollars and not any collectors in Palo Alto. The major reason was that we were uncertain as to where we would establish them, where we would set them up, who would maintain them, etc. We just felt that for the first phase, we would rather have somebody else do it, get some information on it, and then decide whether we want to do it here or not. MOTION: Chairman Johnston: That sounds fine. Therefore I move that we endorse this program. MINUTES UAC:04/03/96 Final Page 60 E~_~0_~: By Commissioner Grimsrud. In general, I support DSM, and I think we should be in that business to some extent, even though we do not make a lot of money in it. I, too, have some reservations about this $238,600 for the gas and electric alternative fuel vehicles study. If there is one area that the utility can be supportive of in the Comprehensive Plan aspects, it is Transportation. I am interested in looking at city-owned facilities to help transportation. To direct some of these funds into supporting the city overall in that area would be very worthwhile. The way you have presented this gives some flexibility, in general~ and I agree with that. I will support the motion. Commissioner ETerly: I, too, will support the motion. for both 1996-97 and 1997-98. This program is MOTION PASSES: Chairman Johnston: All those in favor, say aye. All opposed? That passes unanimously on a vote of 3-0 with Commissioners Eyerly, Grimsrud and Johnston voting aye and Commissioners Chandler and Sahagian absent. Item 6.e. Ouarterlv Electric Issues Update. Mr, Habashi: Doug Boccignone will give you this update. Mr. Boccignone: I will not discuss anything in particular in the report. I will just highlight something Chairman Johnston mentioned earlier about PG&E’s announcement last Friday that they were going to accelerate the deprecation of the Diablo Canyon Plant while simultaneously holding rates constant to enable them to be at market pricing at the end of 2001, as opposed to the prior plan to do it at the end of 2005. So it does point out that as we suggested in earlier presentations, once industries go down the path of restructuring, things tend to accelerate. We are trying to keep on our toes. Chairman Johnston: That is well noted, while we wait another year to see whether we should move faster or not° Commissioner Eyerly: I am worried about all of the things that are happening. With PG&E’s actions with the Modesto situation and open access tariffs, etc., I am wondering if we are adequately prepared. I guess you are going to seek some outside legal help on some of these matters. Perhaps Tom Habashl could comment on that, as we were talking about it during the break. My belief is that transmission costs are MINUTES UAC:04/03/96 Final Page 61 going to be the~thing we will have to fight over the next period of years with PG&E. We need to get geared up for it, and not loiter behind. I asked Tom if NCPA was in a position with their legal staff to lead the charge for us. Mr. Habashi: You are quite correct that transmission will be an issue in the future. We are looking at it not only from a Palo Alto perspective, but we are also working with NCPA to look at it from an NCPA perspective as a user of the PG&E system. Also, we are looking at it with TANC as an owner of our transmission lines. So we are working in different arenas to try and resist having all of the costs that PG&E has right now as on the transmission side, that we have to pay for. So we are still on top of it, Fred. I cannot assure you that the outcome will be pleasant. I think we are all certain of seeing more expensive transmission in the future. The question is, how much more? Is it going to double or will it go up only about 20%, 25%? We do not know. Commissioner EyerlT: The other thing I asked Tom about was in regard to the Modesto PG&E situation where Modesto is seeking to sell energy outside of their immediate service area. We have talked about this in the past and whether it is possible for us to sell excess power, etc., in the future outside of the city limits. I do not know just where staff stands on that, now that you hve gotten some input from Ariel Calonne, the city attorney. As I understand it, you are still going to pursue this to get a little more background as to whether we would be free to sell power in the future outside of the city. Mr. Habashi: We are looking at that very cautiously. The Modesto Irrigation District (MID) went out and decided to endorse open access, and they are very aggressively seeking a lot of customers outside of their service territory. In return, they have engendered a lot of anger from the investor-owned utilities, who are seeing their customers fleeing their system and avoiding having to pay the stranded costs of what they need to pay in order for the IOU’s to recover their stranded assets. I am glad they are first. If we have to do it later on, we will do that, but again, we are lookin~ at it very cautiouslyand want to make sure that it does not invite the IOU’s, as well as others, into our service territory. Commissioner Everl~: When you say that you are looking at it cautiously, I can understand that, but what I am really asking is whether with deregulation, we could legally do this or not. MINUTES UAC:04/03/96 Final Page 62 Mr. Habashi: I cannot really tell. I think we will need a legal opinion on this matter before we go forward. I know that MID could because they have a special status as an irrigation district and because of the agreements they have signed with the district who also signed an agreement with PG&E to allow them to use transmission. I do not believe we have the same status as the irrigation district. I do not want to say I am sure about it, one way or the other. We need some legal support on this. Mr. Boccignone: Under current law, we have some opportunitie~ we could pursue. We certainly need to explore them with the legal counsel that we are currently in the process of retaining. One thing we have noted in the report is that as a result of the MID activities, there has been legislation proposed that would severely restrict our ability to serve anyone outside of our territory, including traditional annexations. That is of great concern to us and to all municipal utilities.We are taking steps to oppose that. Chairman Johnston: Thank you. Item 8. City Council Referrals - none. Item 9. Reports of Officials/Liaisons Item 9.a. NCPA. Mr. Habashi: I would just quickly point out the attachments to the NCPA report on telecommunications. They are well worth reading. Item 9.b. BAWUA - none. Next Meeting: May I, 1996 ADJOURNMENT: The ~eeting was adjourned at 11:30 p.m. MINUTES UAC:04/03/96 Final Page 63 March 26, 1996 Ms. Rosemary Ralston, Administrator City of Palo Alto Utilities Department 250 Hamilton Avenue - Second Floor Palo Alto, California 94301 Dear Ms. Ralston: Enclosed ig our presentat!on for the April 3 UAC meeting. We will need approximately 45 minutes to review the work plan, plus whatever time the UAC may need for instructions and direction to TB&A/RMI. We plan on having four or five members from our team present, including myself, Tim Szybalski, Ron Oechsler, and Harold Morgan. I look forward to seeing you. ~S~ Thomas J. Resh Managing Director. ’ THEODORE BARR~ & "ASSOCIATES 515 South Figueroa Street, Suite 1500 ¯ Los Angeles, California 90071 ¯ 213.689.0770 ¯ FAX 213,629,7580 E 0 0 E c o o0~ ~o~ o 0 o 0 o X 0000 0 ooc >~ ~ "~ o ,600 o0o0 "9’oI = o °e~°°o 0 o c