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HomeMy WebLinkAboutStaff Report 2312-2468CITY OF PALO ALTO Finance Committee Special Meeting Wednesday, February 21, 2024 5:30 PM     Agenda Item     1.Discussion and Update on the Fiscal Year 2025 Preliminary Utilities Financial Forecast and Rate Projections Presentation 3 7 7 0 Finance Committee Staff Report From: City Manager Report Type: ACTION ITEMS Lead Department: Utilities Meeting Date: February 21, 2024 Staff Report: 2312-2468 TITLE Discussion and Update on the Fiscal Year 2025 Preliminary Utilities Financial Forecast and Rate Projections RECOMMENDATION This item is for discussion, and no action is requested. Staff will use input from the Finance Committee on these preliminary rate projections for the Electric, Gas, Water and Wastewater Collection Utilities to finalize its recommended FY 2025 Financial Plans and proposed rate changes for each utility. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Throughout the pandemic, the City of Palo Alto kept rate increases at minimal levels in order to alleviate the burden of utility cost hikes on residents and businesses already grappling with the pandemic's effects. In 2023, the Council approved the first in a series of rate adjustments to manage some notable and unprecedented trends: •During the winter of 2022-2023, energy prices increased to unprecedented levels; •A drought from 2021 through 2023 impacted electric supply costs, wholesale water costs, and customer demand; •The drought abruptly ended when thirty-one atmospheric rivers from mid-December 2022 to the end of March 2023 established a near-historic snowpack in the Sierra Nevada; and •Relatively cool and wet weather patterns persisted locally in 2023 and water conservation habits established during the drought together contributed to lower customer water use. Reserve funds were drawn down during the last three years, and the preliminary projections shown in Table 1 provide a path to steadily restore those reserve levels during the five-year planning period. This series of rate adjustments is necessary to restore reserves to within guideline ranges within the 5-year planning period, sustain operations given inflationary cost increases, and enable ongoing capital work necessary to provide safe, reliable, and sustainable utilities. Staff is also requesting feedback from the Finance Committee on the amount of the General Fund transfer for the Gas Utility. City voters first authorized the transfer in 1950, and in November 2022 voters approved Measure L, affirming the continuation of this practice by adding section 2.28.185 to the Municipal Code. Each year the City Council may transfer from the Gas Utility to the General Fund an amount up to 18% of gas utility gross revenues, though Council may choose to transfer a lesser amount. For the FY 2024 3 7 7 0 transfer, the Council approved a transfer from the gas utility to the General Fund of 15.5% of the gross revenues (Resolution 10101). The proposed transfer for FY 2025 aligns with the Council's previous guidance, suggesting an 11.9% or $8.96 million transfer from the gas utility to the General Fund. At the meeting, staff will provide a presentation describing the preliminary rate projections for the Electric, Gas, Water and Wastewater Collection utilities. A similar presentation was provided to the Utilities Advisory Commission (UAC) at its January 3, 2024 meeting. The presentation will be available online prior to the meeting. BACKGROUND Table 1 shows the preliminary retail rate forecast over the next five fiscal years and the overall impact to the median residential bill. The rate changes shown are preliminary estimates. Actual rate changes will be based on updated financial data and the cost-of-service methodologies and studies for each utility and may differ by customer class and for individual customers depending on consumption patterns. A cost-of- service study for the Electric Utility is expected to be completed in early 2024 and will be factored into proposals for FY 2025. Cost of service studies for the Water and Gas Utilities were completed in 2019, and one for the Wastewater Utility was completed in 2021. Staff’s preliminary system average rate adjustment recommendations are •5% increase for electric •9% increase for gas •9% increase for water (this assumes SFPUC increases the wholesale rate at the low end of its proposed range, however a 13% increase for water is expected if SFPUC increases the wholesale rate at the high end of the range) •Storm drain rates increase annually by the calendar year change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) which is 2.6% for FY 2025 and Table 1 estimates the same CPI for future years •Wastewater, staff originally proposed a 9% increase as shown in Table 1. In response to UAC Commissioner feedback to consider a higher rate increase to avoid deferring sewer infrastructure investment, staff recommends a 15% increase and presents both alternatives in the analysis section below for the Finance Committee’s consideration. •Rates for fiber optic services established prior to September 18, 2006 will also increase by the CPI rate. 3 7 7 0 Table 1: Projected Residential Rate Changes 1)Preliminary projection pending completion of a cost of service analysis. 2)Based on General Fund transfer of 11.9% of gross revenue in FY25; gas rate changes shown with commodity rates held constant; actual gas commodity rates vary monthly 3)Storm Drain fees increase by CPI index annually per approved 2017 ballot measure (2.6% in FY 2025) 4)Based on an FY 2023 monthly residential bill of $369 For the Water Utility, this preliminary projection allows the operations reserve to remain within the guideline range. For the Electric and Wastewater Utilities, the distribution operations reserves dropped below guideline ranges at the end of FY 2023, and staff projects the Gas distribution operations reserve will drop below the guideline range by the end of FY 2024. This proposal would restore the Electric distribution operations reserves to within the guideline range by the end of FY 2025, and for the Gas and Wastewater Utilities by the end of FY 2026. ANALYSIS Staff seeks input from the Finance Committee prior to finalizing the Utilities Financial Plans and developing recommendations for rate changes that would be effective July 1, 2024. The proposed rate adjustment recommendations, along with each utility’s Financial Plans, are currently scheduled to be presented to the Finance Committee in April. Every year presentations are provided to the UAC and Finance Committee with financial forecasts for the Electric, Gas, Water, and Wastewater Collection Utilities and recommends any rate adjustments required to maintain their financial health. These forecasts are memorialized in Financial Plans that comprehensively discuss the outlook for each utility. Before providing recommended Financial Plans and rate changes, typically a preliminary forecast is completed to get early feedback. 3 7 7 0 Electric In FY 2025 and FY 2026 the electric utility will benefit from significant one-time revenues offset by significant capital investment expenses. Electric supply purchase costs are anticipated to be lower mainly due to the amount of hydroelectric generation resulting from heavy rains in the winter of 2022/2023. Staff also expects substantially higher revenues from resource adequacy and renewable energy credit sales. On the expense side transmission costs continue to rise, and capital spending and distribution system maintenance spending is rising due to grid modernization and fiber-related investments and an upgrade to the Hanover Substation, some of which staff expects to recommend be offset with debt service. On balance, however, the net effect of these various one-time costs and revenues is expected to be positive, enabling the utility to refill reserves to target levels, especially the Hydro Rate Stabilization Reserve. This ensures that, in the event of a significant degradation in hydro conditions, the City will not need to use the Hydro Rate Adjuster to recover higher supply costs. In addition, an electric utility cost of service analysis is underway, which is conducted to ensure that the cost of running the utility is allocated to customer classes according to the cost to serve them. The cost study will incorporate the revenue and expense data described above to determine resulting rate impacts for all customer classes. In the longer term (FY 2027 through FY 2029) projected increases in costs related to stricter resource adequacy requirements, increasing transmission costs, and capital investment and operational cost increases that are expected to result in system average rate increases of 5% per year. Projected rate changes for the median residential bill or any other customer may vary from this projection due to the cost of service analysis currently in progress. The current year (FY 2024) financial plan for the Electric Utility (approved April 17, 2023) is available at: https://cityofpaloalto.primegov.com/meeting/attachment/1201.pdf?name=Attachment%20B%20- %20FY24%20Electric%20Utility%20Financial%20Plan Gas Gas fund expenses are currently composed of about 60% supply and 40% distribution expenses. Most of the supply costs are market driven pass-through charges on customers’ bills that change monthly according to market conditions. The long-term gas rate increases shown in Table 1 will go towards funding the distribution and capital investment costs of the Gas Utility. Throughout the pandemic, the City opted to cap rate increases at 2% to 3% per year. This decision aimed to minimize rate increases on customers while still aligning with reserve guidelines by scaling down the size of main replacement capital projects. In the winter of 2022 – 2023, gas supply prices spiked to unprecedented levels and Palo Alto’s Gas Utility reserves were drawn down to cover the difference between the Council-approved maximum gas commodity charge and the City’s actual cost of gas. The reserves need to be replenished over time and the Gas Utility needs to plan for a large main replacement project every other year to ensure safety and reliability while managing ongoing construction cost inflation. Last year, a gas rate increase of 7% in FY 2025 was forecasted. However, given the continuing increases in construction costs, salaries and benefits, overhead costs and reserve levels projected to be below minimum guideline levels at the end of the current fiscal year (FY 2024), staff recommends a 9% overall rate increase for the Gas Utility effective July 1, 2024. 3 7 7 0 The gas utility's transfer to the City’s General Fund is a component of the City’s gas rates. City voters first authorized the transfer in 1950, and in November 2022 voters approved Measure L, affirming the continuation of this practice by amending the Municipal Code. Specifically, section 2.28.185, “Natural Gas Utility Transfer” states: Each fiscal year the City Council may transfer from the natural gas utility to the General Fund an amount equal to 18% of the gross revenues of the gas utility received during the fiscal year two fiscal years before the fiscal year of the transfer. At its discretion, the City Council may decide to transfer a lesser amount. The projected cost of the transfer shall be included in the City’s retail natural gas rates as part of the cost of providing gas service. Measure L authorized Council to make the transfer annually and granted Council the ability to approve a lower amount. On 4/17/2023 Council approved the transfer of up to 15.5% of gas utility gross revenues received during FY 2022 to the General Fund in FY 2024, or $7,707,000. In the preliminary rate projection, the staff recommendation for the proposed FY 2025 transfer is 11.9% of the gas utility’s gross revenues in FY 2023, or $8,960,000, which aligns with the voter-approved changes codified in PAMC 2.28.185. Though the percentage reduced, the transfer amount remains in line with the guidance Council provided in the FY 2024 Budget Adoption. The percentage is an anomaly as the FY 2025 transfer is based on the unusual actual activities in FY 2023 which included the unprecedented spike in gas prices. Recommended beyond FY 2025 is the continuation of a gradual annual transfer increase to up to 18% of gross revenues by FY 2027. Note that revenues for FY 2026 (two fiscal years prior) and beyond are projected and will fluctuate depending on gas commodity market prices and other factors. 3 7 7 0 Table 2: Proposed/Projected and Alternate General Fund Transfers as % of Gross Gas Revenues Two FYs Prior Approved (Council Resolution 10101) Proposed / Alternate Projected FY 2024 FY 2025 FY 2026 FY 2027 Gas Utility Gross Revenue Two Fiscal Years Prior ($000) $70,4142$49,721 $75,2911 $61,032 $73,618 Percent of gas utility gross revenue to transfer 11.9%16.5%15.5%18%18%18% Transfer amount ($000) Transfer 11.9%$8,960 $10,070 $12,674 Transfer 18%$7,707 $13,552 $10,986 $13,251 Change in Transfer from Prior Fiscal Year (%) 16%12%26%7%76%-19%21% Table 3: Summary of Distribution Rate Changes for Transfer Proposal and Alternatives FY 2024 (Approved) FY 2025 FY 2026 FY 2027 Transfer 11.9%9%7%7% Transfer 18%8%15%5%5% The current year (FY 2024) Financial Plan for the Gas utility (approved April 17, 2023) is available at: https://cityofpaloalto.primegov.com/meeting/attachment/1188.pdf?name=Attachment%20C%20- %20Gas%20FY2024%20Financial%20Plan Water In FY 2023, customers successfully conserved water in accordance with local, regional and state calls for water conservation. Although the drought came to an end this past winter, the weather continued to be relatively cool and wet throughout the irrigation season and, together with continuing water conservation, this led to reduced water sales and lower revenue for the fiscal year. At the end of FY 2023, the transfer authorized by the City Council of $3 million from the rate stabilization reserve to the operations reserve was completed. Despite this, the operations reserve was within the guideline range 1 Represents actual gas utility gross revenues for FY 2023. 2 There are two values for gross revenue in FY 2027 because there are two possible rate trajectories shown in Table 3 that would impact the forecasted revenue for FY 2025 (two fiscal years prior to FY 2027); the first would increase rates by 9% in FY 2025 leading to forecasted revenues of $70.414 million and the second would increase rates by 15% in FY 2025 leading to forecasted revenues of $73.618 million. 3 7 7 0 but near the minimum guideline level at the end of FY 2023. Expenses were higher than forecasted due to transfers out, accounting adjustments and capital related costs. The Water Utility needs to plan for some large capital projects in the five-year budget including two reservoir replacements and a large main replacement every other year. A 13% increase on the distribution rates, which is equivalent to a 7% overall system average increase on customers water rates is needed to accommodate inflating construction costs, increases in salaries and benefits and overhead costs, and updated revenue estimates that incorporate ongoing conservation in the short-term. On January 17, 2024, the City’s water supplier, the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission (SFPUC), estimated a rate range for its July 1, 2024 rate increase between 4.5% and 13.1%, an increase from the current rate of $5.21/CCF to between $5.43/CCF and $5.89/CCF. The three main drivers of the SFPUC rate increase are cost increases, water sales volume decreases, and funds owed on the wholesale customer balancing account. The overall system average water rate increase including both the wholesale rate increases together with proposed distribution rate increases, is between 9% to 13% in FY 2025. Projections for FY 2026 – FY 2029 assumes inflationary increases of 3% on SFPUC’s wholesale rate in each subsequent year. The current year (FY 2024) financial plan for the Water Utility (approved June 19, 2023) is available at: http://cityofpaloalto.org/civicax/filebank/documents/76983 Wastewater Collection Last year, the Council approved the first of a series of rate increases with the understanding that the City would accelerate the rate of sewer main replacements from 1 mile to 2.5 miles per year by FY 2026. This is a sustainable rate of main replacement needed to replace sewer mains within, or as close as possible to, their 100 year life expectancy. Additionally, in FY 2023 the Wastewater Utility accelerated by a year the most expensive sewer main replacement that the utility has ever completed. This project is double the cost of the second largest project in 2021. It was important to coordinate the work with Caltrans to limit or avoid digging into newly-paved street on El Camino. Council approved transfers of all funds from the CIP Reserve ($3.178 million) and from the Rate Stabilization Reserve ($0.34 million) to the operations reserve to utilize all available funds. Staff projected that this project would bring the operations reserve temporarily down to the minimum guideline range. However, in FY 2023 costs were higher than forecasted, primarily for CIP-related costs and transfers out to capital projects, and revenue was lower than forecasted (primarily capacity fee revenue, which varies from year to year) and the operations reserve ended the year with negative $0.7M. Additionally, in the current year, non-residential revenues are declining instead of increasing as a result of wet weather and reductions in winter water usage. Under consideration is deferring the five-mile main replacement planned for FY 2026 due to the low reserve and revenue levels and the inflationary costs. It is still important for the sustainable management of sewer main replacement to achieve replacing 2.5 miles per year. However, given the current reserve levels and revenue impacts, it will take more time than initially projected last year in order to reach the sustainable replacement rate. If the City replaces the last 138 miles of the sewer main over the next 60 years and executes the five-mile project in FY 2026, the final main would be replaced at the age of 108, which is 8 years past its useful life. By postponing the FY 2026 3 7 7 0 project and adding a new one at the end of the 60-year period, the last main would be replaced at around 111 years old, exceeding its useful life by 11 years. This will allow time for the Wastewater Utility revenues to increase in line with expected costs and for the reserves to return to within the guideline range by the end of FY 2026. However, by deferring sewer main replacement planned for FY 2026 to the end of the ~60 year cycle, construction cost inflation will mean that customers have to pay market prices at that time, and the total costs may be much higher. Wastewater treatment costs are projected to rise over the next several years due to higher capital improvement project costs and debt service or loan repayments at the Regional Water Quality Control Plant (RWQCP). A series of large increases in treatment costs are planned during the next five years to address aging infrastructure at the treatment plant. During the UAC’s January 3, 2024 meeting, a 9% rate increase in FY 2025 for the Wastewater Utility was presented. Based upon feedback from the UAC Commissioners during the meeting, a scenario with a 15% rate increase in FY 2025 has been molded that allows a sewer replacement project of a reduced size to continue in FY 2026, while each option resumes the 2.5 miles per year of sewer main replacement in FY 28. •15% rate increase in FY 25 ($7.29 per residential customer per month) •7-9% per year rate increases in FY 26 – FY 29 •Continue with planned sewer replacement with $1M in FY 25 and $2M in FY 26 •$2M Pump station retrofit in FY 28 Table 4 shows the projected residential bill impact and each rate increase trajectory together with estimated monthly bill and net difference in monthly bills from FY 2025 through FY 2029. The difference between the 15% and 9% alternatives is $2.92 in FY 2025 and ranges from $1.96 to $3.46 per month for residential customers in each subsequent year. Table 4: Projected Residential Bill Impact, Rate Increase Percentage, Estimated Monthly Sewer Bill, and Net Difference in Monthly Bills FY 2025 to FY 2029 Alternatives FY 2025 FY 2026 FY 2027 FY 2028 FY 2029 7.29 5.03 5.48 5.31 5.02 Proposal: 15% in FY 2025 15%9%9%8%7% 4.37 4.77 5.20 5.66 6.17 Estimated Bill Impact for Residential Customers ($/mo.) and Rate Increase Percentage (1)Alternative: 9% in FY 2025 9%9%9%9%9% Proposal: 15% in FY 2025 55.93 60.96 66.44 71.75 76.77 Estimated Monthly Sewer Bill ($) Alternative: 9% in FY 2025 53.01 57.78 62.98 68.64 74.81 Net Difference in Monthly Bills ($) 15% vs. 9% in FY 2025 2.92 3.18 3.46 3.11 1.96 (1) estimated impact on residential wastewater monthly bill, which is currently $48.64 3 7 7 0 The most recent (FY 2024) financial plan for the Wastewater Collection Utility (approved June 19, 2023) is available at: https://www.cityofpaloalto.org/files/assets/public/agendas-minutes-reports/reports/city-manager- reports-cmrs/attachments/03-07-2023-id-2302-0944-ww-financial-plan-lisa.pdf FISCAL/RESOURCE IMPACT Based on the preliminary rate increases as shown, the estimated distribution revenue impacts in FY 2025 would be an increase of $4.4 million in the Water Fund if the SFPUC increases the wholesale water rate to $5.43/CCF (up to $6.3 million in the Water Fund if the SFPUC increases the wholesale water rate to $5.89/CCF), an increase of $3.3 million in the Wastewater Collection Fund at the 15% rate increase level in FY 2025 ($2.0 million in the Wastewater Collection Fund at the 9% rate increase level in FY 2025) and $5.1 million in the Gas Fund. For the Electric Fund, the revenue change for FY 2025 is uncertain but is not expected to increase significantly despite the rate changes. This is due to various factors, including forecasted load reduction in FY 2025 and the implementation of the cost of service analysis, which is expected to yield higher rate changes for some customer classes than others. STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT The UAC reviewed the preliminary financial forecasts at its January 3, 2024 meeting. Input from Commissioners was sought regarding the preliminary rate adjustment recommendations and the transfer amount from the gas utility to the general fund for FY 2025. Commissioners asked about the effect on Palo Alto customers from PG&E electric transmission cost increases, the marginal cost of electric transmission, how much surplus energy Palo Alto has, and they asked for more information about each of the electric reserve transfers. One Commissioner commented that there should be a separate fund within each utility by cost category with no loans between funds and we should use root-cause analysis. Commissioners asked questions about the ongoing cost of service study work on the Electric Utility. Commissioners agreed with the recommendation to transfer 11.9% instead of 18% of Gas Utility gross revenue to the General Fund for FY 2025. A water rate trajectory with 5% overall increases in each year from FY 2025 through FY 2029 was presented. Some Commissioners commented that staff should consider proposing a higher water rate increase in order to replenish reserves faster and build up CIP reserves for future One Water Plan CIP recommendations. The water rate proposal included in this preliminary rate report and presentation was revised. One Commissioner asked for more detail on operating cost components. For the Wastewater Collection Utility, Commissioners suggested staff consider a higher rate increase to avoid deferring sewer infrastructure investment, especially given the City’s favorable rates compared to neighboring agencies. Two alternative rate increases for discussion with the Finance Committee have been prepared. An excerpt of the minutes from the UAC’s January 3, 2024 meeting is located at the Utilities Advisory Commission website. The UAC is scheduled to review the long-term Financial Plans and proposed rate adjustments for the Electric, Water, Wastewater and Gas Utilities in March. The Finance Committee is tentatively scheduled to review the long-term Financial Plans and proposed rate adjustments in April. Once the Finance Committee has provided its recommendation, notification of any recommended Water and Wastewater Collection rate adjustments will be sent to customers, giving them the opportunity to protest the proposed changes as required by Article XIIID of the State Constitution (added by Proposition 218). The 3 7 7 0 Financial Plans and proposed new rate schedules will be considered by the City Council with the FY 2025 budget, at which time the public hearing required by Article XIIID of the State Constitution will be held. ENVIRONMENTAL REVIEW The Finance Committee’s review of the preliminary financial projections does not meet the definition of a project, pursuant to Section 21065 of the California Environmental Quality Act, thus no environmental review is required. ATTACHMENTS No Attachments APPROVED BY: Dean Batchelor, Director of Utilities Staff: Lisa Bilir, Senior Resources Planner February 21, 2024 www.cityofpaloalto.org PRELIMINARY FY 2025 RATECHANGES 2 PRELIMINARY SYSTEM AVERAGE RATE PROJECTIONS 1)Preliminary projection pending completion of a cost of service analysis. 2)Based on general fund transfer of 11.9% of gross revenue in FY25; gas rate changes shown with commodity rates held constant; actual gas commodity rates vary monthly 3)Storm Drain fees increase by CPI index annually per approved 2017 ballot measure (2.6% in FY 2025) 4)Based on an FY 2023 monthly residential bill of $369 3 ONGOING COST CONTAINMENT •Consistent with the Utilities Strategic Plan, cost containment is being instituted as an ongoing priority and annual cycle •Winter completion of preliminary out-year rate forecasts •Review by all Divisions for alignment of multiyear strategies •Ongoing management review of personnel actions •Review/revision of position classifications to match evolving needs •Addition/Deletion of positions to reflect organizational priorities •Review/approval to fill individual position vacancies in conjunction with ASD Budget Office and Human Resources •Regular review of performance metrics and expenditures 4 RECENTLY IMPLEMENTED COST CONTAINMENT •Agreement with Valley Water: $250K to $1M/year + up to $16 million in funding for reverse osmosis facility to improve recycled water quality •Selling surplus Resource Adequacy and RECs ($20+ million/year) •Negotiated improvements to Western hydroelectric contract ($2 million/year) •Established a cross-functional field crew to install water, gas, and sewer services simultaneously at new construction sites, reducing hours spent in the field; staff time freed up to be reallocated to sewer replacements •Implemented mobile workforce applications, reducing administrative data entry time, freeing up staff for other work •Scheduled larger CIP projects every other year to achieve efficiencies in project management and also better bids / lower construction costs •Expanding use of bank draft to reduce credit card fees, particularly for large accounts •BAWSCA water bond refunding to achieve lower debt service payments for wholesale customers, including Palo Alto beginning in 2023 •Negotiating layoff of transmission asset to better monetize resource 5 FUTURE POTENTIAL COST CONTAINMENT •Switch to new customer information system with reduced support costs •Explore prepay of renewable power purchase agreements to monetize municipal tax-exempt debt •Increased water and energy end use technical training for Customer Service Representatives, reducing transferred phone calls and staff time •Working to cluster gas main replacements to reduce mobilization costs for construction contractors •Evaluating in-house (rather than contractor) pipeline materials procurement to reduce construction markups ELECTRIC UTILITY www.cityofpaloalto.org 7 FY 2025 proposal: •Rate changes that vary by customer class and consumption pattern resulting in an 0.5% increase in revenue. 8% ($6.20/month) increase for the median residential customer. •Reserves recovering from 2020-2022 drawdown •Planned repayment to Hydroelectric Rate Stabilization and Electric Special Projects Reserves will reduce Operations Reserves below minimum levels •Net supply costs forecast to decline from improved hydro conditions and lower natural gas prices •Revenues from surplus system Resource Adequacy and Renewable Energy Certificates further reducing supply costs Future years: •5% rate increase per year projected for FY 2026-FY 2029 •Issue debt for Grid Modernization by end of FY25 Electric Rate Proposal 8 Electric Utility Cost Structure Electric Distribution costs (in green): $84 million 44% Electric Supply: The cost to buy electricity and transport it to Palo Alto, including operational overhead (e.g. energy scheduling) Electric Supply costs (in blue): $107 million 56% Electric Distribution: The cost to distribute electricity within Palo Alto, including: maintaining and replacing electric infrastructure, customer service, billing, administration, etc. 9 LONG TERM COST TRENDS Annualized Increase, FY20-FY25 Annualized Increase, FY25-FY29 Supply: 0.7%/yr Distribution: 7.3%/yr Supply: 5%/yr Distribution: 6.6%/yr 10 LONG TERM COST TRENDS: SUPPLY Annualized Increase, FY20-FY25 Annualized Increase, FY25-FY29 Transmission: 6%/yr Generation: -3%/yr Transmission: 5%/yr Generation: 6%/yr Overhead: 6%/yr Overhead: 2%/yr 11 LONG TERM COST TRENDS: DISTRIBUTION Annualized Increase, FY20-FY25: Annualized Increase, FY25-FY29: Capital: 14%/yr Operations: 6%/yr Capital: 10%/yr Operations: 2.9%/yr Debt: 100%/yr Debt: 32%/yr 12 Supply Cost Drivers •Record high load costs in FY23, double prior 4-year average •Surplus Resource Adequacy reducing power supply costs by $14.4 million in FY25 •Surplus Renewable Energy Credits reducing power supply costs by $7.6 million in FY25 •Higher hydroelectric generation projections reduced projected supply costs by nearly $4.7 million in FY24 •Transmission costs remain high – still waiting on transmission rate case resolution, refund, and lower rates •Geothermal Power Purchase Agreement starting 2025, Western Base Resource costs reduced slightly 13 Distribution Cost Drivers •Inflation •Medical/retirement benefit costs and associated overhead costs continue to increase •Increased capital investment in the electric distribution system needed due to system age •Grid Modernization, which is currently assumed to be bond financed •Underground construction costs have increased substantially •Additional contract expense for line crew until internally staffed 14 FY 2025 Preliminary: Electric Cost and Revenue Projections Co s t / R e v e n u e 15 Electric Supply Operating Reserve Projections 16 Electric Supply Reserve Projections 17 Electric Distribution Operating Reserve Projections 18 Electric Distribution Reserve Projections 19 Electric Distribution CIP Reserves GAS UTILITY www.cityofpaloalto.org 21 FY 2025 Projection •9% overall rate increase to customer bills, due to 15% distribution rate increase •7% overall rate increase in FY 2026 and FY 2027, 6% annually in FY 2028 and FY 2029 •Feedback requested on FY 2025 Measure L transfer (PAMC 2.28.185) •Supply costs expected to remain stable this winter Preliminary Gas Rate Projections 22 Preliminary Gas Projections •FY 2023 Year-end Ops Reserve above minimum guideline level Compared with Forecast •+$5.6M – sales higher than forecasted; high gas consumption •+$2.1M – purchases lower than forecasted; lower Cap-and-Trade and Carbon offset costs •FY 2024 Year-end Ops Reserve Forecasted to be below risk assessment guideline level •-$2.3M – FY23 Cap-and-Trade auction sales revenue transfer to reserve deferred to FY24 •-$1.4M – FY23 Carbon offset costs deferred to FY24 •FY 2025 Year-end Ops Reserve forecasted to be at risk assessment guideline level and expected to return near target guideline level by FY 2029 23 Gas Utility Basics City of Palo Alto gas distribution system: •20,000 meters •205 miles of mains •18,000 service lines 24 •About one-third to two-third of the rate is “supply-related:” gas supply, transmission, and environmental charges. These rates vary monthly according to market-driven costs that are passed directly to customers •The remaining portion of the rate is set based on the City’s costs for maintaining its gas distribution system (gas mains, services, related equipment). These rates are being discussed here tonight. Gas Rate Design FY 2023 25 Gas Utility Cost Structure (FY 2023) Gas Distribution (in Green): The cost to distribute gas within Palo Alto, including: maintaining and replacing gas infrastructure, customer service, billing, administration, etc. Gas Supply, Transmission, and Environmental (in Blue): All pass-through - 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2019 2025 2029 $ (M i l l i o n s ) Gas Supply , Environmental, and Transmission Costs Capital Investment ** Gas Opera�ons 26 Long Term Cost Trends Annualized Increase, FY19-FY25 Annualized Increase, FY25-FY29 Supply, Transmission, Environmental: 10%/yr* Supply, Transmission, Environmental: 2%/yr* Operations: 8%/yr Operations: 5%/yr Capital: 8%/yr Capital ** 11%/yr * Forecast is uncertain and will vary with market prices ** FY25 and FY29 CIP are an average of two years due to staggered main replacement schedule. 27 Gas Supply Cost Drivers* •PG&E gas transmission rates continue to rise steadily to fund safety investments •Insurance purchased in response to winter 22/23 natural gas market volatility •Cap and Trade costs continue to rise (as intended by design) •Carbon Neutral Gas Plan; carbon offset purchases * All of the above costs are pass-through and not included in rate increase - 10 20 30 40 50 60 2019 2025 2029 $ (M i l l i o n s ) Debt Service Opera�ons Capital Investment 28 Gas Distribution Cost Trends Annualized Increase, FY19-FY25 Gas Capital: 8%/yr* Gas Operations: 8%/yr Annualized Increase, FY25-FY29 Gas Capital: 11%/yr* Gas Operations: 6%/yr * FY25 and FY 20 CIP is an average of two years due to staggered main replacement schedule. Gas Debt Service: 0%/yr Gas Debt Service: Debt Free by FY27 29 Gas Distribution Cost Drivers •Health, retirement, and associated overhead costs continue to increase •Underground construction costs have increased substantially as well •Continued funding for crossbore investigations •Increases in transfers to capital projects fund 30 Current Gas Bill Comparisons ($/Mo. or Yr.) Commercial Staff is in the process of doing a more extensive review of commercial competitiveness and will provide updates in the future Residential Palo Alto median residential bill is projected to be about 10% below PG&E’s median bill in FY 2024, based on actuals and projected supply rates 31 Preliminary - Gas General Fund Transfer •Measure L: 18% of gas utility gross revenues from two fiscal years prior; Council may elect to transfer less •Council approved transferring up to 15.5% of FY 2022 gas utility gross revenues to the general fund in FY 2024 •Equity Transfer Alternatives: •Transfer 11.9% (Staff Recommended): lower transfer amount due to high commodity revenue in FY 2023, gradual transition to 18% transfer by FY 2027 •Transfer 18%: transfer full amount allowed under Measure L 18% cap M 2M 4M 6M 8M 10M 12M 14M 16M 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 An n u a l T r a n s f e r A m o u n t ($) Fiscal Year Actual Transfer 11.9%Transfer 18% 32 FY 2025 General Fund Transfer Alternatives and Gas Rate Projections Note: Revenues can fluctuate depending on gas commodity market prices Percent of Gross Gas Utility Revenue to Transfer Fiscal Year 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Transfer 11.9%15.5% 11.9% 16.5% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% Transfer 18%15.5% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% FY 2024 Financial Plan 15.5% 11.1% 12.9% 13.1% 12.8%- Summary of Overall Rate Changes Fiscal Year 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Transfer 11.9%8% 9% 7% 7% 6% 6% Transfer 18%8% 15% 5% 5% 5% 6% FY 2024 Financial Plan 8% 7% 5% 5% 5%- 4%5%2% 3% 3%8% 9%7% 7%6%6% $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 Actual Projec�on $ M i l l i o n s Fiscal Year Capital Gas Supply Opera�ons Transfers Debt Service Note:Gas Revenue Rate % Changes (excludes supply -related rate changes) Revenue 33 Gas Cost and Revenue Projections Transfer 11.9% *Revenue excludes Cap-and-Trade auction sales revenue, which goes directly to the Cap-and-Trade reserve **FY23 Commitments and Reappropriations reserves balances for Operations and Capital Investment are anticipated to be utilized in FY24 and FY25 4%5%2% 3% 3%8%15%5%5%5%6% $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 Actual Projec�on $ M i l l i o n s Fiscal Year Capital Gas Supply Opera�ons Transfers Debt Service Note:Gas Revenue Rate % Changes (excludes supply -related rate changes) Revenue 34 Gas Cost and Revenue Projections Transfer 18% *Revenue excludes Cap-and-Trade auction sales revenue, which goes directly to the Cap-and-Trade reserve **FY23 Commitments and Reappropriations reserves balances for Operations and Capital Investment are anticipated to be utilized in FY24 and FY25 35 Gas Operations Reserve Projections Transfer 11.9% $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 (M i l l i o n s ) Fiscal Year Reserve (Year-End) Reserve Maximum Reserve Target Reserve Minimum Risk Assessment -$5 $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Actual Projected (M i l l i o n s ) Fiscal Year Commitments & Reappropria�ons CIP Reserve Supply Rate Stabiliza�on Opera�ons Reserve 36 Gas Reserve Projections Note: Excludes Cap and Trade Reserve WATER UTILITY www.cityofpaloalto.org 38 Preliminary Water Rate Projections •Proposal FY 2025 - 13% Distribution Rate Increase •FY 2023 year-end Operations Reserve near minimum guideline due to drought •Projected Water Distribution Rate Changes •Projected Total Water Rate Changes •Commodity rate projected to increase between 4.2% and 13.1% based on latest SFPUC projection (January 2024); highly uncertain and subject to change due to uncertain regional drought usage rebound and weather •Water main replacement acceleration not included •One Water supply alternatives not included 39 Preliminary Water Rate Projections •FY 2023 Year End Ops Reserve below target •Water sales (net of supply cost savings) $2.4M lower than forecasted •Expenses $1.6M higher than forecasted (including transfers out, accounting adjustment to beginning balance, CIP) •Ops Reserve projected to be close to minimum guideline range for 4 years and return to target guideline levels in FY 2029; •CIP Reserve below minimum temporarily in FY 2026 and returns to within guideline range by the end of FY 2027 due to two one-time tank replacements/rehabilitation in FY 2026 and FY 2027 •Sales forecast updated to reflect drought rebound by FY 2026 and 2-5% lower water sales annually during the forecast period 40 WATER UTILITY BASICS 41 WATER UTILITY COST STRUCTURE Cost to bring the water to Palo Alto Cost to distribute water within Palo Alto, including: maintaining and replacing water infrastructure, customer service, billing, administration, etc. Supply $25.9 million Distribu�on $32.2 million 55% Supply Distribu�on - 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 FY 2019 FY 2025 (Projected)FY 2029 (Projected) $ (M i l l i o n s ) Distribu�on Supply 42 LONG TERM COST TRENDS Annualized Increase, FY19-FY25: Annualized Increase, FY25-FY29: Supply: 3.4%/yr Distribution: 2.5%/yr Supply: 2.6%/yr Distribution: 4.6%/yr 43 WATER DISTRIBUTION COSTS Debt Service $3.2 million 10% Opera�ons $20.0 million 62% Capital $9.0 million 28% - 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 FY 2019 FY 2025 (Projected)FY 2029 (Projected) $ (M i l l i o n s ) Debt Service Opera�ons Capital 44 WATER DISTRIBUTION COST TRENDS Annualized Increase, FY19-FY25: Capital*: 2.4%/yr Operations: 6.8%/yr Debt Service: 0.0%/yr Annualized Increase, FY25-FY29: Capital: 8.4%/yr Operations: 4.2%/yr Debt Service: -5.5%/yr •Capital in 2019 includes an average of 2019 and 2020 and includes capital contribution to the CIP Reserve in 2025 and 2029 45 WATER OPERATIONS & CAPITAL COST DRIVERS Operating •Drought-related water sales reductions •Health, retirement, and associated overhead costs continue to increase Capital •Construction costs have not declined •Large one-time costs for reservoir rehabilitation/replacement •Planned increase in costs for generator backup at pumping stations and for emergencies 46 WATER SUPPLY COST DRIVERS •Water System Improvement Program (WSIP) •2002: advocacy by wholesale customers results in AB 1823 requiring SFPUC to adopt and implement the WSIP •In 2010 construction began - $4.8B, one of the largest water projects in the nation •Level of service goal: return to service in 24 hours after an earthquake 47 WATER SUPPLY COST DRIVERS •WSIP spending 98.9% complete as of September 2021 •“Upcountry” system in the Sierra still needs work. •Wholesale customers (via BAWSCA) advocating for improvements in long-term capital planning •Necessary and improves reliability, but supply costs will increase in the future as a result 48 Preliminary Water Projections Cost/Revenue * Includes changes due to commitments/reappropriations and funds transferred to the CIP Reserve 3%1%0%0%5%5%9%9%10%9%5% $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 FY 20 1 9 FY 20 2 0 FY 20 2 1 FY 20 2 2 FY 20 2 3 FY 20 2 4 FY 20 2 5 FY 20 2 6 FY 20 2 7 FY 20 2 8 FY 20 2 9 Actuals Projected M i l l i o n s Capital* Opera�ons Water Supply Debt Service Revenue Rate Changes 49 WATER OPERATIONS RESERVE PROJECTIONS $0 $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 $12 $14 $16 $18 $20 FY 2023 Actual FY 2024 FY 2025 FY 2026 FY 2027 FY 2028 FY 2029 M i l l i o n s Reserve Maximum/Minimum Reserve Target Reserve (Year-End) Risk Assessment 50 WATER CIP RESERVE PROJECTIONS 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 FY 2024 FY 2025 FY 2026 FY 2027 FY 2028 FY 2029 M i l l i o n s ($) Capital Reserve Ending Balance Min/Max Guideline 51 WATER RESERVE PROJECTIONS $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 FY 2023 FY 2024 FY 2025 FY 2026 FY 2027 FY 2028 FY 2029 Actual Projec�ons M i l l i o n s Unassigned Rate Stabiliza�on Reserve Opera�ons Reserve Capital Reserve Commitments (Non-CIP) CIP Reappropria�ons & Commitments 52 WATER SUPPLY RATES FORECAST $- $1.00 $2.00 $3.00 $4.00 $5.00 $6.00 $7.00 20 0 9 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 1 20 2 2 20 2 3 20 2 4 20 2 5 20 2 6 20 2 7 20 2 8 20 2 9 SF P U C W h o l e s a l e W a t e r R a t e ($/CC F ) Fiscal Year Actual/Projected SFPUC Wholesale Rates Palo Alto Redwood City Menlo Park (Cal Water) Mountain View Hayward Santa Clara 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 M o n t h l y B i l l s ($) Low (4 CCF)Med (8 CCF)High (18 CCF)Average at 8 CCF Bold indicates 100% of Water Supply from SFPUC 53 MONTHLY WATER BILL COMPARISON Single-Family Residential Palo Alto is 8% above comparison city average Palo Alto Redwood City Menlo Park (Cal Water)Mountain View Hayward Santa Clara 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 M o n t h l y B i l l s ($) 12 CCF 64 CCF 300 CCF Average at 64 CCF Bold indicates 100% of Water Supply from SFPUC 54 MONTHLY WATER BILL COMPARISON Commercial Palo Alto is 2% above comparison city average WASTEWATER COLLECTION www.cityofpaloalto.org 56 Wastewater Alternatives •Staff Recommendation: 15% rate increase in FY 25, $7.29 per residential customer per month •Continue with planned sewer replacement with $1M in FY 25 and $2M in FY 26 •$2M Pump station retrofit in FY 28 •Alternative: 9% rate increase in FY 25, $4.37 per residential customer per month •Defer FY 25 and FY 26 of planned sewer replacement •Defer pump station retrofit •Both alternatives resume 2.5 miles per year of sewer main replacement in FY 28 Alternative Rate Projections: 57 Wastewater Alternatives & Residential Bill Impacts 58 Wastewater Projections •FY 2023 Year End Ops Reserve below minimum guideline and below zero ($0.7M) due to o $3M – higher CIP-related (including admin costs) o $0.5M – revenue lower than forecasted o $0.3M – higher transfers out to capital projects •Sanitary Sewer Replacement 31 moved up a year from FY 2024 to FY 2023 due to coordination with CalTrans; $9.3M in the reappropriations reserve for this project •Current year revenue projected to be $0.7M below projection due to non-residential revenue declines as a result of wet weather and reductions in winter water usage •Defer construction in FY 25 and FY 26 of planned sewer replacement and pump station retrofit; •Reductions are temporary as the fund increases revenues to sustainable level 59 Wastewater Utility Basics •Treatment Plant has five partners: Stanford, East Palo Alto, Los Altos Hills, Los Altos, and Mountain View •Wastewater drains from partner systems through the City of Palo Alto Collection System, and into the City of Palo Alto Regional Water Quality Control Plant (RWQCP) for treatment •City of Palo Alto Utilities Department manages collection system, Public Works manages the RWQCP Treatment $10,784 M (43%) Collec�on $14,269 M (57%) Treatment Collec�on 60 Wastewater Utility Cost Structure Palo Alto’s share of the cost to treat sewage at Palo Alto’s Regional Water Quality Control Plant Cost to collect sewage within Palo Alto, including: maintaining and replacing sewer infrastructure, customer service, billing, administration, etc. - 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 2019 2025 (Projec�on)2029 (Projec�on) $ (M i l l i o n s ) Fiscal Year Collec�on Treatment 61 Long Term Cost Trends Annualized Increase FY 19-25 Treatment: 4.6%/yr Collection: 7.1%/yr Annualized Increase FY 25-29 Treatment: 3.2%/yr Collection: 15.1%/yr Note: Collection Capital reflects Two-Year Average 62 Treatment Cost Drivers •Regional Water Quality Control Plant needs rehabilitation •Long Range Facilities Plan completed in 2012, currently being updated including partner cost-share re-evaluation •Near Term Major Projects: •Sedimentation Tank ($19.4M) •Outfall Pipeline ($17.8M) •Laboratory/Operations Center ($48.5M) •Secondary Treatment Upgrades ($193M) •Applying for grant funding from Valley Water (estimated $11.2M available to Palo Alto from 2024 through 2033); •Forecast assumes $7.4M available from FY 26 – FY 29 63 Wastewater Collection Costs Collec�on Opera�ons $7,823 M (55%) Collec�on Capital $6,446 M (45%) Collec�on Opera�ons Collec�on Capital - 5 10 15 20 25 2019 2025 2029 $ (M i l l i o n s ) Fiscal Year Collec�on Opera�ons 64 Wastewater Collection Cost Trends Annualized Increase FY19-25 Annualized Increase FY25-29 Collection Capital: 0.8%/yr Operations: 6.0%/yr Collection Capital: 32.4%/yr Operations: 2.6%/yr Reflects Reduced- Size Sewer Replacement in FY 2025 and FY 2026 Note: Capital & Debt Service reflects two-year average 65 OPERATIONS/CAPITAL COST DRIVERS Operational Costs •Salary and benefit costs for existing staff •3-4% annual inflation for other operating costs •Revenue reduction expected in current year $700K, estimated recovery by FY 2027 •Lower connection, capacity fees and interest income Capital Costs •Underground construction cost increases •Allocated cost increases •Sanitary Sewer Replacements at the rate of 2.5 miles per year after fund recovers 66 Wastewater Reserve Projections -$2 $0 $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 $12 $14 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Actual Projected $ (M i l l i o n s ) Fiscal Year Rate Stabiliza�on CIP Reappropria�ons & Commitments CIP Reserve Opera�ons Reserve 11%7%0% 3%3%9%15%9% 9% 8%7% $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Actual Projected Co s t /Re v e n u e $ (M i l l i o n s ) Fiscal Year Collec�on Capital & Debt * Collec�on Opera�ons Treatment Capital & Debt Treatment Opera�ons Revenue 67 Preliminary Wastewater Cost and Revenue Projections * Includes changes due to commitments/reappropriations and funds transferred to the CIP Reserve 68 Wastewater Operations Reserve Projections -$2 $0 $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 $12 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Actual Projected $ (M i l l i o n s ) Fiscal Year Reserve (Year-End) Reserve Min/Max Reserve Target Risk Assessment 69 Wastewater CIP Reserve Projections $- $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 $12 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 $ (M i l l i o n s ) Fiscal Year CIP Reserve (Year-End)Reserve Min/Max 11%7%0% 3%3%9%9%9% 9%9% 9% $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Actual Projected Co s t /Re v e n u e $ (M i l l i o n s ) Fiscal Year Collec�on Capital & Debt * Collec�on Opera�ons Treatment Capital & Debt Treatment Opera�ons Revenue 70 ALTERNATIVE Preliminary Wastewater Projections * Includes changes due to commitments/reappropriations and funds transferred to the CIP Reserve 9% in FY25 71 ALTERNATIVE: Wastewater Operations Reserve Projection 9% in FY25 -$2 $0 $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 $12 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Actual Projected $ (M i l l i o n s ) Fiscal Year Reserve (Year-End) Reserve Min/Max Reserve Target Risk Assessment 72 ALTERNATIVE: Wastewater CIP Reserve Projection 9% in FY25 $- $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 $12 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 $ (M i l l i o n s ) Fiscal Year CIP Reserve (Year-End)Reserve Min/Max 73 WASTEWATER MONTHLY RESIDENTIAL BILL ($) NOVEMBER 2023 Palo Alto is 26% below comparison city average 74 WASTEWATER MONTHLY NON-RESIDENTIAL BILL ($) NOVEMBER 2023 Commercial: Palo Alto is 9% higher than comparison city average Restaurant: Palo Alto is 7% below comparison city average 75 Summary of Proposal and Alternative Residential Bill Impacts