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Home My WebLink About1997-01-23 City Council (8)City of Palo Alto .................................................................................................................................................................................. C tY TO:HONORABLE CITY COUNCIL FROM:CITY MANAGER DEPARTMENT: PLANNING DATE: SUBJECT: January 23, 1997 CMR:123:97 1996 Monitoring Report of Traffic Volumes at Eleven Key Intersections As part of the implementation of the Citywide Land Use and Transportation Study, actual traffic volumes at 11 key intersections are monitored annually and compared with approved volumes established as part of the Citywide Study. These traffic volume counts were again taken at these 11 key intersections in the fall of 1996. The purpose of this report is to share that information with the Council and the Planning Commission. This is an informational report, and no Council action is required. RECOMMENDATIONS No Council action is required at this time. POLICY IMPLICATIONS As a result of the Citywide Land Use and Transportation Study, current City policy is to allow a limited amount of additional land use development, with the projected consequence that growth in traffic will occur and traffic conditions, as measured by Level of Service (LOS), will worsen to Level of Service E and F at most major intersections. Whether, and how, this is incorporated into the Comprehensive Plan update is a fundamental policy issue that will need to be evaluated, discussed and, eventually, resolved, as part of the forthcoming review of the Draft Comprehensive Plan. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In 1985, the City of Palo Alto began a study process (the Citywide Land Use and Transportation Study) which, when concluded in 1989, resulted in actions to address community-wide concerns about increasing traffic congestion resulting from continuing commercial and industrial development. CMR: 123:97 Page t’of 4 The land use component of the study focused on nine discrete study areas(Attachment 1), which incorporated lands with commercial and industrial development potential. The traffic component of the study evaluated a total of 69 roadway intersections and focused on using a subset of 11 key intersections (Attachment 2) as best representing traffic conditions at the City’s major intersections. The bar charts and table in Attachments 1 and 2 show (a) the actual development (square feet) and traffic volumes (vehicles) at the time of the study, as well as 0a) the development potential and related traffic allowable under the then current zoning (previous zoning potential), and (c) the reduced development potential and related traffic now permitted (current zoning potential). Approval of the Citywide Study reduced the development potential from 25 million.square- feet to 3 million square feet and, thereby, dramatically reduced the amount of potential future growth in traffic. However, the Citywide Study did recognize and accept that traffic growth will continue to occur in Palo Alto and that traffic conditions, as measured by Level of Service (LOS), would worsen at major intersections. The Citywide Study also included approval of a series of feasible intersection operational improvements, at selective intersections, that would help ameliorate, albeit not solve the projected worsening traffic conditions. Even with the identified feasible intersection operational improvements, traffic conditions were projected to be Level of Service E and F at most major intersections. As part of the implementation of the Citywide Study, actual traffic volumes at 11 key intersections are monitored annually and compared with approved volumes established as part of the Citywide Study. Attachment 3 is a tabular summary comparison of the change in actual measured traffic volumes for 1985 and 1996, as well as future volumes (for 2010) approved as part of the Citywide Study. This information is shown for both the P.M. peak hour and the P.M. peak three-hour period. Attachments 4 through 9 graphically illustrate the comparison of actual measured traffic volumes dttfing the period 1985 to 1996, with the future volumes approved as part of the Citywide Study, for each of the 11 key intersections. ~ Ofpfimm3, interest is the relationship of the solid line (2010 P.M. peak-hour traffic based on reasonable build-out under existing zoning) and the heavy dashed line (actual measured P.M. peak-hour traffic volumes from 1985 to 1996). The following observations can be made: At all intersections, the heavy dashed line (actual) remains below the 2010 endpoint of the solid line-that is, the measured 1996 P.M. peak-hour volume is less than the 2010 build-out P.M. peak-hour volume (which it should be). One location, however is worth noting. At Middlefield/San Antonio, the 1994 volume exceeded the 2010 volume, which was the first time this had happened at any of the 11 CMR: 123:97 Page ~ of 4 intersections. This appeared to be an aberration. Last year, the measured volume dropped back to a value more in line with the general trend. This year, the volume rose sharply, to a point that is only slightly below the 2010 build-out volume. At all but four intersections, the heavy dashed line (actual) in 1996 is at or below the solid line in 1996--that is, the 1996 measured P.M. peak-hour volume is equal to or less than the Citywide Study P.M. peak-hour volume for 1996. The exceptions are Middlefield/Oregon, Middlefield/University, Middlefield/San Antonio, and Foothill/Page Mill. At Santa Cruz/Sand Hill, the 1996 measured P.M. peak-hour volume equals the 1996 Citywide Study P.M. peak-hour volume. This is the first year that current volumes at four intersections have exceeded the Citywide Study. The previous highest number was in 1994 at three intersections (Middlefield/Oregon, Middlefield/San Antonio, and Middlefield/University). At all but one intersection, 1996P.M. peak hour volumes increased from 1995 volumes (whereas 1995 volumes at most locations had decreased from 1994 volumes and 1994 volumes had increased from 1993 volumes). The one current exception is Alma/Charleston, where the P.M. peak-hour volume decreased last year. Between 1985 and 1996, at all but three intersections, P.M. peak-hour volumes and P.M. peak three-hour period volumes have followed essentially the same pattern of variation. The three exceptions are Alma/Charleston," EI Camino Real/ Arastradero and Foothill/Page Mill. At Alma/Charleston, 1996 P.M. peak hour volume decreased, but the P.M. three-hour volume increased. At El Camino Real/Arastradero, 1996 P.M. peak-hour volume remained essentially flat, but the P.M. three-hour volume increased. At Foothill/Page Mill, the P.M. peak three-hour volume increased for thefirst time since 1990 (accompanied also by an increase in the P.M. peak-hour volume). In reviewing these numbers, it is important to recognize that trattic volumes fluctuate daily and weekly by up to 10 percent. Small changes in tratiie volumes do not necessarily indicate fundamental changes. However, notwithstanding such variations, it seems apparent that there has been a general increase in traffic from 1995 to 1996. Contributing factors are likely to be the general increase in employment and the strengthening of the economy, which the Peninsula and South Bay Area have experienced. A comparison of the 1996 volumes with those for 1985, based upon inclusion of this normal fluctuation (10 percent), indicates that for the P.M. peak hour, the 1996 volumes are about the same or lower at 7 of the 11 key intersections and higher at CMR:123:97 Pago 3 of 4 4 of the 11 key intersections. A similar comparison for the P.M. peak three hours indicates that the 1996 volumes are about the same as 1985 volumes at 5 of the 11 key intersections and higher at 6 of the 11 key intersections. I P T There is no fiscal impact to the City. ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT No Environmental Assessment is required. ATTACHMENTS 1. 2. 3. 4-9. Land Use Areas Eleven Key Intersections Traffic Volumes for Eleven Key Intersections Graphic Comparison of Counts and Projections Prepared By: Carl Stoffel, Transportation Engineer Marvin L. Overway, Chief Transportation Official Department Head Review: Director of Planning and Community Environment City Manager Approval: Planning Commission CPAC Stanford University(Andy Coe, David Neuman) . Stanford Management Company (Leonie Batkin, Bill Phillips) Susan Frank, Chamber of Commerce CMR:123:97 Pag~ ~ of 4 ATTACHMENT 1 LAND USE Commercial and Industrial EAST BAYSHORE SOUTH EAST FALO EL CAHIHO/STANFORO RESEARCH ~ARK 16000 ~14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 i.......................................Legend [] £zi~ting tgB7 [] PtevJous Zoning Polential .....: ......... [] "C;urmnt Zoning PolenUal 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Study Areas Comparison of Comaerctel and Industrial Develolment Potomtlale Existing Oevelo~nt Dovulopmen~Square Feet/Potential/Potential/~previous Zomlnq~*~e~ Zoninq** 1. I)o~t~3,313,200 350.0002. Urban Lane 518,100 2.501,6003. Hldto~143,600 253,5004. East Oayshoro 1,318.800 4SO,gO0S. Southeast Palo Alto 3.072,300 1,567,2006. South E1 Casino 1,084.900 3.35G.1007. Central Palo Alto 1,878,900 2,526,9008. Stanford Research/ ECR g,SSS,700 2.906,8009. Sand HIll Road Corridor ~~ TOTAL 24,886.600 25.314,600 ~" ~oont of devoiope, ent. ~hich could be added Source:Citywide Land Use & Transportation Study 3SO,O0034,400. S,200g3,sO0 665,000200,100 (6,2oo) 1,794,100 3,251,900 FFIC ATTACHMENT 2 Peak Hour Traffic Volumes Eleven Key Intersections |\ 14000 12000 10000 4000 2000 I 10 is ~1 ~3 2s ~5 ~1 43 44 zo Intersec#onReferenceNumber Source:Citywide Land Use & Transportation Study TRAFFIC VOLUMES ELEVEN KEY INTERSECTIONS 1985- 1996 ATTACHMENT 3 4.Middlefield/-2012 C 2630 C 2806 E 5819 7448 7408Univenity 10.Middlefield/- O~egon 15.Middlefield/- San Antonio 21.Alma/- Charleston 23.El ~mino ReaFAlma 35.El Camiuo Real/- Arastradero/- Charl~on 41.Foothill/Page Mill 70.El C~ino Real/Page Mill 44.Santa Cruz/- Sand Hill 43.FoothilF Anstradem 26.El ~anfino Real/- Embarcadero 3745 4497 4198 5623 5673 4576 6867 3680 5300 C E E 4497 5291 4052 5232 5506 5658 6828 4951 3465 5450 F E .D B D D D 4650 5405 5531 6860 7404 6415 8903 5595 5494 6733 E E E 10572 9613 10239 14967 14224 10345 19126 12443 8831 12366 12283 13839 11147 13784 15035 14574 18836 14276 8498 14597 12047 14060 14268 18062 19126 16459 23062 14723 13893 17796 (1)1985 and 2010 LOS were calculated using a diiferent; but reasonably comparable, methodology than in 1996-refer to page VI.21 of Citywid¢ Land Use and Transportation Study DEIR Final Addendum, February 1989. (2)With approved intersection eapazity improvements. (3)From PC AIt computer printout 1/89, unmitigated, p. 2. Middlefield/U niver.sit (#4) Cltywlde Study Key Intersection Monitoring Program ATTACHMENT 4 PM P.k Hr Entering Volume 3000 - 28O0 - 2600 ~ 2400. 2200- 2000- 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 - 600 - 400. 200. 0 1985 drll~m~f.er~/.wpg 1990 PM 3-Hours Entering Volume ~7500 -7000 -6500 -6000 5500 5000 4500 -4000 -3500 -3000 .2500 .2000 j.15oo |1000 ~500 "0 1995 2000 2005 2010Year Legend ~ Projected PM Pk Hr .... Measured PM Pk Hr ,,,~,, Measured PM 3 Hrs Middlefield/Oregon (#10) Cltywlde Study Key Intersection Monitoring Program PM Pk Hr Entering Volume 5000- "4500- 40OO 3500 3000 2500- 2O00- 1500. 1000. 500. 0 985 1990 1995 2000 2005Year PM 3-Hours Entedng Volume 20000 18000 16000 14000 Legend 12000 ==Y-- Projected PM Pk Hr -=,,-, Measured PM Pk Hr.10OO0 ,,,~,, Measured PM 3 Hrs 8000 - 6000 - -4000 - 2000 0 2010 Middlefield/San Antor" Cltywlde Study Key Intersection Monitoring PMPk Hr Entering Volume 550O 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500- 2000 1500 1000 5OO 0 ’ 1985 12/96 d~ l~gen~ 1990 1995 2000 2005Year (#15) ATTACHMENT PM 3-Hours EntedngVolume 20000 18000 16000 14000 Legend 12000-={.--Pr~ected PM Pk Hr ..... Measured PM Pk Hr-10000 ~, Measured PM 3 Hrs 8000 6000 4000 -2000 0 2010 Alma/Charleston (#21) Cltywlde Study Key Intersection Monitoring Program PM Pk Hr Entering Volume 5500. 5000. 4500- 4000- 35O0 3000 25O0 2000. 1500- 1000 - 500. 0 .I .I 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 PM 3-Hours Entering Volume ¯ 12000 ,11000 - 1O000 - 9000 8OO0 7OOO 6OO0 5OO0 .4000 ¯ 30OO ¯ 2000 .1000 0 2010 Legend ¯ -1=- Projected PM Pk Hr .... Measured PM Pk Hr ,,~,, Measured PM 3 Hrs El Camino Real/Alma ,,J23) Ctty’~de Study Key Intersection Monitoring Program ATTACHMENT 6 PM Pk Hr Entering Volume 7500 ] 7000-[~3,85oo- 6000- 5500- 5000- 4500- 4000 - 3500 - 3000’ I I 2500. 2000- 1500- 1000- 500- 0- 1985 1990 1995 2000Year 2OO5 PM 3-Hou~ En~ring Volume i1600015000 -14000 -130OO -120OO 11000 Legend lO000=-~-=Projected PM Pk Hr 9000 ..... Measured PM Pk Hr8OO0 ¯ 7000 ’~" Measured PM 3 Hrs ,6000 -5000 -4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2010 El Camino Real/Embarcadero (#26) Cltywlde Study Key Intersection Monitoring Program PM Pk Hr Entering Volume 7000 6500 6000 5500- 5000- 4500- 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000- 500- O- PM 3,Hours Entering Volume 16000 15000 14000 13000 -12000 11000 Legend. 10000.-p,. Projected PM Pk Hr 9000 ....Measured PM Pk Hr8000 7000 "~" Measured PM 3 Hrs 6000 -5000 -4000 . -3000 -2000 -1000 -0 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year Camino Real/Arastra ,ero (#35) Cltywtde Study Key Intersection Monitoring Program ATTACHMENT PM Pk Hr Entering Volume 8000 7000. 6000. 5000 4000- 3000, 2000, 1000. 0 1985 1990 1995 2000Year 2005 PM 3-Hours Entering Volume 16000 14000 12000 Legend IO000,-=F=, Projected PM Pk Hr .... Measured PM Pk Hr8000 ,,Y~,, Measured PM 3 Hrs 6000 " .4000 2OOO 0 2010 Foothill/Page Mill (#41) Cltywtde Study Key Intersectlon Monitoring Program PM Pk HrEn~dngVolume 7000- 6500- 6000~ 5500. 5000. 4500- 4000- 3500 3000 2500. 2000- 1500. 1000. 500. 0 PM 3-Hours Entering Volume 14OOO 12000 Legend10000 =.-P-. Projected PM Pk Hr - 8000 ,==-, Measured PM Pk Hr ,~,, Measured PM 3 Hrs 6OOO ¯2000 0 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year Foothill/Arastradero (#43) Cltywlde Study Key Intersection Monitoring Program ATTACHMENT 8 PM Pk Hr En~dngVolume 6000. 5500, 5000- 4500 4000 3500 3000- 2500- PM 3-Hou~ Entering Volume -9000 8000 7000 Legend 6000 ¯-+=Preened PM ~kHr -5000 ...... Measured PM Pk Hr ¯ 4000 ’~" Measured PM 3 H~ 2000.3O00 1500- 1000 50O 2000 1000 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Year Santa Cruz/Sand Hill (#44) Cllywtde Study Key Inter~ Monitoring Program PM Pk HrEntedng Volume ¯ 6000 5500 50O0 4500 4000- 3500- 3000. 2500. 2OOO 1500 1000 5O0 0 PM 3-Hours EntedngVolume -15000 -14000 -13000 120O0 11000 Legend10000 9000 ""F=Pr°je~ed PM Pk Hr 8000, ....Measured PM Pk Hr .7000 ,~,, Measured PM 3 Hrs .6000 .5000 ’4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 -0 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Year El Camino Real/Page Mill Cltywlde Study Key Intersection Monitoring Program PM Pk Hr Entering Volume 9000. 8000- 7O00 6000 5000 4000, 3000- 2000 1000 0 1985 ~ 1~-I~1.~I~ 1990 1995 2000 2005Year (#70)ATTACHMENT 9 PM 3-Hours Entering Volume 22000 20000 18000 16000 Legend 14000==.F=- Projected PM Pk Hr .12000.=... Measured PM Pk Hr - 10000 ,.)~,, Measured PM 3 Hrs 8000 6000 4000 ¯2000 0 2010