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HomeMy WebLinkAboutStaff Report 4583 City of Palo Alto (ID # 4583) Finance Committee Staff Report Report Type: Action Items Meeting Date: 4/15/2014 City of Palo Alto Page 1 Summary Title: Electric, Gas, Wastewater Collection, and Water Utility Financial Plans Title: Utilities Advisory Committee Recommendation that Council Adopt a Resolution Adopting the Electric, Gas, Wastewater Collection, and Water Utility Financial Plans F rom: City Manager Lead Department: Utilities Recommendation Staff and the Utilities Advisory Commission (UAC) request that the Finance Committee recommend that Council adopt a resolution (Attachment A) adopting the Electric, Gas, Wastewater Collection, and Water Financial Plans (Attachments B, C, D, and E, respectively). Executive Summary Every year staff presents the Finance Committee with financial forecasts for its Electric, Gas, Wastewater Collection, and Water Utilities and recommends any rate adjustments required to maintain their financial health. This year, staff is presenting expanded forecasts, which will now be called “Financial Plans,” that include a more comprehensive overview of the utility’s operations, both retrospective and prospective. The Financial Plans are intended to be a reference for UAC and Council members as they review the budget and staff’s rate adjustment recommendations. This year’s Financial Plans keep rates unchanged for FY 2015. Each Financial Plan contains a set of Reserves Management Practices (RPs) describing the reserves for each utility and the management practices for those reserves. The proposed RPs include improvements to the structure of each utility’s reserves, and replace the current reserve guidelines. Many of the proposed improvements to the reserves are responsive to recommendations made by the City Auditor in the December 2012 Utilities Reserves Audit. City of Palo Alto Page 2 Staff presented these Financial Plans to the UAC at its March 26, 2013 meeting. Staff’s presentation to the UAC included a projected 4% rate increases for the Water and Wastewater Collection Utilities. The UAC voted to recommend that Council adopt the proposed Financial Plans, modified to include no rate increases for the Water and Wastewater Collection Utilities. Background To ensure adequate revenue to fund the safe operation of the utility and prudent capital replacement, staff performs a financial forecast each year for the Electric, Gas, Wastewater Collection, and Water Utilities and recommends rate changes as needed. The City also maintains a variety of reserves for these utilities for contingencies and other purposes. The current reserves are shown in Table 1, below. Table 1: List of Utilities Reserves Reserve Electric Gas Wastewater Collection Water Reappropriations x x x x Commitments x x x x Emergency Plant Replacement x x x x Rate Stabilization x x x x Electric Special Projects* x Underground Loan x Public Benefit Program x Central Valley Project x *formerly the Calaveras Reserve Staff has reviewed its existing system of financial forecasting and each utility’s reserves structure to identify possible improvements. This review was prompted in part by the Utilities Reserves Audit completed in December 2012 by the City Auditor. The rep ort included two findings and five recommendations focused on 1) more clearly articulating the criteria for setting Rate Stabilization Reserve (RSR) targets, and 2) comprehensively reporting on all other reserves, especially those related to the Capital Improvement Program (CIP). A summary of the City Auditor’s recommendations is included in Attachment F. The reserves proposals and financial forecasts in this report have been reviewed internally by the City’s Administrative Services Department and the Office of the City Auditor. The Office of the City Auditor’s preliminary response was that staff’s proposed reserves structure, once fully implemented, would satisfy the recommendations of the Utilities Reserves Audit pending a full review to be completed later this year. City of Palo Alto Page 3 The UAC reviewed the reserves proposals in this report at its January 8, 2014 meeting, and the preliminary financial forecasts at its February 12, 2014 meeting. The Finance Committee reviewed the preliminary financial forecasts and reserves proposals at its March 4, 2014 meeting. On March 26, 2014, staff presented Financial Plans to the UAC that included 4% rate increases for the Wastewater Collection and Water Utilities for FY 2015. The UAC recommended that the Council approve amended Financial Plans that include no projected rate increases for the Wastewater Collection and Water Utilities for FY 2015. Discussion Projected Rate Increases Table 2 shows the projected rate adjustments included in the Financial Plans and their impact on the median residential bill (electric, gas, sewer, and water, not including refuse or storm drain). Staff is proposing to keep rates unchanged for FY 2015 for all utilities, with the caveat that water rates may require additional adjustment in the event the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission (SFPUC) calls for increases in water conservation goals, an announcement that is not expected until April 15. The projected water and sewer rate increases for FY 2016 through FY 2019 are higher than they would be if FY 2015 water and sewer rates were raised by 4% as proposed to the UAC. Table 2: Projected Rate Adjustments FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 Electric Utility 0% 3% 3% 3% 2% Gas Utility* 0% 0% 0% 3% 3% Wastewater Collection Utility 0% 7% 7% 7% 7% Water Utility 0% 7% 6% 6% 6% Estimated Bill Impact (%)** 0% 5% 4% 5% 5% Estimated Bill Impact ($/mo)** $0.00 $8.05 $7.84 $9.43 $9.47 * Gas rate changes are shown with commodity rates held constant. Actual commodity rates will vary monthly with wholesale market fluctuations ** estimated impact on median residential bill (electric, gas, wastewater collection, water) The cost basis for these projected rate adjustments is as follows:  Electric Utility: Renewable energy costs are projected to rise over the next several years as staff continues to implement the City’s Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) and Carbon City of Palo Alto Page 4 Neutral Plan. Transmission costs are also expected to rise. Staff projects roughly 2% to 3% annual increases in Operating and CIP costs over the forecast period.  Gas Utility: Operating and CIP costs are projected to increase roughly 2% to 3% annually. There will be additional costs in FY 2015 through FY 2017 for the crossbore program, but these will be funded from reserves and savings from lower CIP spending in FY 2014 and FY 2015. The lower CIP spending is due to a temporary slowdown in new main replacement projects to enable staff to manage an unusually large main replacement project begun in FY 2013 that will replace all remaining ABS plastic pipe in the distribution system. New main replacement projects will recommence in FY 2016, likely at a lower spending level.  Wastewater Collection Utility: Wastewater treatment costs are projected to rise 4% to 5% per year over the forecast period as the Regional Water Quality Control Plant (RWQCP) ramps up capital spending on a variety of projects to refurbish aging parts of the facility. Operating and CIP costs for the sewer system are projected to increase roughly 2% to 3% annually. The utility has accumulated reserves due to a temporary reduction in CIP spending in FY 2014 (related to staff vacancies), and will draw these reserves down over the course of the forecast period to smooth the transition to higher rates.  Water Utility: The main driver for the water utility’s expenses over the next several years is the cost of water. Wholesale water costs are projected to rise 7.5% per year, on average, through FY 2021, which is when the SFPUC is projected to complete its Water System Improvement Program (WSIP). Because of the length of this project, the water financial forecasts are for seven years in order to show that wholesale water costs are projected to stabilize in FY 2020 and FY 2021. Operating and CIP costs are projected to rise roughly 2% annually over that time. The Water Utility financial forecast also includes a loss of revenue for FY 2015 associated with the 10% voluntary reductions currently being requested by the SFPUC this year. If deeper, mandatory reductions are required, staff will need to amend its forecast. Changes from Preliminary Forecast Staff has made some changes from the preliminary forecasts, some of which were discussed at the Finance Committee’s March 4, 2014 meeting. The forecasted costs for the Gas and Water Utilities changed notably from the preliminary forecast, which affected the projected rate increases for those utilities.  Gas Utility: The costs of the crossbore program had been overestimated in the preliminary forecast. Correcting the projection reduced the forecasted rate increases in later years.  Water Utility: Bids received for a Water Utility capital project in mid -February prompted staff to revisit its Water Utility CIP cost projections. Costs of main replacement have risen for a variety of reasons. In addition, there is some uncertainty in the scope of a major future water main replacement project. Staff had planned to complete a water system City of Palo Alto Page 5 study in 2016 to revisit its CIP plan and its assumptions about the necessary rate of future main replacement. Staff intends to accelerate the schedule for that study, postponing new main replacement until it is completed. Staff has analyzed a variety of CIP cost scenarios, some of which lead to high rate increases in future years if the City keeps rates un changed in FY 2015. These potential higher costs are shown in the Financial Plan. Changes to Reserves Structures Each Financial Plan includes Reserves Management Practices (RPs) defining the utility’s reserves and the way they are to be managed. These RPs replace previous adopted utility reserve policies and include changes to the structure of the utilities reserves from current reserve policies. These changes are summarized below, and are described in more detail in the “Status of Reserves” sections of the Financial Plans. The primary change relates to the RSRs. Of all the reserves, the current RSRs require the most active management and monitoring, and they serve multiple purposes: 1. To plan for certain known future occurrences that are of a one -time nature; 2. To smooth the transition to higher rates if the expense is of an ongoing nature; 3. To ensure funds are available to cover short-term situations when expenditures exceed revenues; and 4. To provide a depository of excess funds when expenditures are l ess than revenues. The RSRs have a set of Council-approved minimum and maximum guidelines. The Utilities Reserves Audit raised a concern with the fact that reserves have sometimes been below the minimum or above the maximum guidelines. This is a result of the fact that they serve multiple purposes. For example, if staff allows funds to accumulate for rate stabilization purposes, the RSR may exceed the maximum guideline, but this may be a reasonable course of action from a financial planning perspective. The proposed RPs include separate reserves for each of these functions: a CIP reserve for future large one-time CIP projects, a Rate Stabilization Reserve to hold funds for rate stabilization, an Operations Reserve for contingencies, and an Unassigned Reserve for funds that are to be assigned a purpose or returned to ratepayers. The other notable change applicable to all utilities is the merger of the Emergency Plant Replacement Reserve into the Operations Reserve. Currently each utility’s Emergency Plant Replacement Reserve holds $1 million, enough to cover the City’s insurance deductible in case of an insurable loss of utility facilities. The Operations Reserves of each utility are adequate to cover the insurance deductible, making the Emergency Plant Replacement reserves unnecessary. City of Palo Alto Page 6 The RPs include other reserves changes specific to the Electric and Gas Utilities described in more detail in the Electric Utility and Gas Utility Financial Plans, which are: 1. Combining the Gas Supply and Gas Distribution Reserves; 2. Closing the Central Valley Project Reserve; and 3. Adding a Hydro Stabilization Reserve for the Electric Utility. Table 3 summarizes the changes to the structure of the reserves for the Electric, Gas, Wastewater Collection, and Water Utilities that would be made with the adoption of the proposed Financial Plans. City of Palo Alto Page 7 Table 3: Financial Plan Utilities Reserves Policy Changes Current Policy Proposed Policy Maintain Reserves for Reappropriations and Commitments per City accounting practices No change CIP Reserve, Operations Reserve, and Unassigned Reserve do not currently exist Add CIP Reserve, Operations Reserve, and Unassigned Reserve RSR acts as the contingency reserve as well as repository of funds for 1) future one-time costs, 2) rate stabilization, or 3) future return to ratepayers. Operations Reserve acts as the contingency reserve, while CIP, Rate Stabilization, and Unassigned Reserves serve the other three purposes. Maintain Emergency Plant Replacement reserve to cover insurance deductible for insurable losses Close Emergency Plant Replacement Reserves. Operations Reserve will cover insurance deductible for any insurable losses. As the contingency reserve, RSR has minimum and maximum guidelines, as shown in Table 4 No min/max guidelines for the Rate Stabilization Reserve. As the contingency reserve, Operations Reserve has the minimum and maximum guidelines shown in Table 4. Guidelines for RSR (contingency reserve) defined as a percentage of annual sales revenue Guidelines for Operations Reserve (new contingency reserve) defined as a number of days of operations and maintenance and commodity expense Separate reserves are maintained for Gas Distribution and Gas Supply Funds Only one set of reserves will be maintained (in the Gas Distribution Fund) Maintain Central Valley Project Reserve Close Central Valley Project Reserve No Hydroelectric Stabilization Reserve Add Hydroelectric Stabilization Reserve to Electric Supply Fund The purpose of the Electric Special Project Reserve (formerly the Calaveras Reserve) is to fund significant projects that benefit electric ratepayers. No change Table 4 shows the contingency reserve guidelines under the current and proposed reserves structure. It shows the current minimum and maximum guidelines for the RSRs (the current contingency reserves), and the proposed minimum, maximum, and target guidelines for the Operations Reserves (the proposed contingency reserves). Note that the current and proposed policies use different methodologies for calculating the guidelines. Currently the guidelines are calculated as a percentage of revenue. Staff proposes to calculate reserve levels based on a number of days of O&M and commodity expense. To illu strate the difference, Table 4 shows the FY 2015 guideline levels as calculated under each methodology. City of Palo Alto Page 8 Table 4: Proposed Changes to Utilities Contingency Reserve Guidelines Current Policy Proposed Policy Contingency Reserve Name Guidelines (% annual sales revenue) FY 2015 Level ($000) Contingency Reserve Name Guidelines (days O&M / commodity expense) FY 2015 Level ($000) Electric Distribution RSR Electric Distribution Operations Reserve Minimum 15% 6,380 Minimum 60 6,594 Target N/A Target 90 9,892 Maximum 30% 12,760 Maximum 120 13,189 Electric Supply RSR Electric Supply Operations Reserve* Minimum 50% 31,668 Minimum 60 13,065 Target N/A Target 90 19,598 Maximum 100% 63,337 Maximum 120 26,131 Gas Distribution RSR Gas Operations Reserve Minimum 15% 3,154 Minimum 60 5,587 Target N/A Target 90 8,380 Maximum 30% 6,308 Maximum 120 11,174 Gas Supply RSR Reserve closed Minimum 25% 3,433 Target N/A Maximum 50% 6,866 Wastewater Collection RSR Wastewater Collection Operations Reserve Minimum 15% 2,343 Minimum 60 2,363 Target N/A Target 105 4,136 Maximum 30% 4,686 Maximum 150 5,909 Water RSR Water Operations Reserve Minimum 15% 5,103 Minimum 60 6,152 Target N/A Target 90 9,228 Maximum 30% 11,863 Maximum 120 12,304 *The proposed new Hydro Stabilization and Supply Operations Reserves together address the contingencies currently addressed by the Electric Supply RSR, which is why the Supply Operations Reserves minimums are lower than the current Supply RSR minimums. Commission Review and Recommendation The UAC reviewed the Financial Plans (including proposed changes to the reserves structure) at its March 26, 2014 meeting. At that meeting staff recommended a 4% increase in water rates based on the updates to the CIP forecast discussed above, and a projected 4% rate increase for the Wastewater Collection Utility to reduce subsequent year rate increases. The UAC voted 4 -1 to recommend that Council approve the Financial Plans, modified to include no projected rate increases for the Wastewater Collection and Water Utilities. While the UAC understood why City of Palo Alto Page 9 staff was recommending a 4% rate increase for the water and wastewater utilities, and understood the potential for higher projected rate increases in the future without FY 2015 rate increases, several Commissioners felt that the community would not accept rate increases until more concrete information about future CIP costs was available. Aside from the recommendation that projected rates for the water and wastewater utility not increase in FY 2015, the UAC recommended approval of all other aspects of the Financial Plans, including the changes to the reserves structures. The draft minutes of the UAC’s March 26, 2014 meeting are provided as Attachment G. Timeline The Council will consider the UAC and Finance Committee recommendations at its June 16, 2014 meeting along with the FY 2015 Budget. Resource Impact The impact on revenues from changes in rates are described in the attached Financial Plans. Policy Implications The attached Financial Plans include RPs that will modify Council policy with respect to the structure of the financial reserves for the Electric, Gas, Wastewater Collection, and Water Utilities. These RPs replace the current reserve guidelines, which were last updated by Council in June 2009 (CMR: 281:09). There is no proposed change to Council policy with respect to the Electric Special Projects Reserve (formerly the Calaveras Reserve), which was last updated by Council in November 2011 (Staff Report #2160). Environmental Review The Finance Committee’s review of these Financial Plans does not meet the definition of a project, pursuant to Section 21065 of the California Environmental Quality Act, thus no environmental review is required. Attachments:  Attachment A: Resolution Adopting Financial Plans (PDF)  Attachment B: Electric Utility Financial Plan (PDF)  Attachment C: Gas Utility Financial Plan (PDF)  Attachment D: Wastewater Utility Financial Plan (PDF)  Attachment E: Water Utility Financial Plan (PDF)  Attachment F: Utilities Reserves Audit Findings and Recommendations (Excerpt) (PDF) City of Palo Alto Page 10  Attachment G: Excerpted DRAFT UAC Minutes of March 26, 2014 (PDF) Attachment A * NOT YET APPROVED * 140327 dm 6053012 1 Resolution No. _________ Resolution of the Council of the City of Palo Alto Approving the Fiscal Year 2015 Financial Plans and Reserve Management Policies for the Electric, Gas, Wastewater Collection, and Water Utilities R E C I T A L S A. Each year the City of Palo Alto (“City”) assesses the financial position of its utilities with the goal of ensuring adequate revenue to fund operations. This includes making long-term projections of market conditions, assessing the physical condition of the system and other factors that could affect utility costs, and setting rates adequate to recover these costs. This task is undertaken with the goal of providing safe, reliable, and sustainable utility services at competitive rates. B. This year, staff has developed expanded forecasts, called “Financial Plans,” that include a more comprehensive overview of the utility’s operations, for Council’s adoption starting in FY 2015. C. The City uses reserves to protect against contingencies and to manage other aspects of its operations, and regularly assesses the adequacy of these reserves and the management practices governing their operation. The status of utility reserves and their management practices are included in Reserves Management Practices which are attached to and made a part of the FY 2015 Financial Plans. D. The 2012 Utilities Reserves Audit performed by the City Auditor included recommendations related to the management of utility reserves. Staff has changed to the structure of the utility reserves and the practices for managing them in response to this audit, and has incorporated these changes into the FY 2015 Financial Plans and Reserves Management Practices. The Council of the City of Palo Alto RESOLVES as follows: SECTION 1. The Council hereby adopts the FY 2015 to FY 2019 Electric Utility Financial Plan, including the Electric Utility Reserves Management Practices. These Electric Utility Reserves Management Practices replace previously adopted Reserves Policies for the Electric Utility. SECTION 2. The Council hereby adopts the FY 2015 to FY 2021 Gas Utility Financial Plan, including the Gas Utility Reserves Management Practices. These Gas Utility Reserves Management Practices replace previously adopted Reserves Policies for the Gas Utility. SECTION 3. The Council hereby adopts the FY 2015 to FY 2019 Wastewater Collection Utility Financial Plan, including the Wastewater Collection Utility Reserves Management Attachment A * NOT YET APPROVED * 140327 dm 6053012 2 Practices. These Wastewater Collection Utility Reserves Management Practices replace previously adopted Reserves Policies for the Wastewater Collection Utility. SECTION 4. The Council hereby adopts the FY 2015 to FY 2021 Water Utility Financial Plan, including the Water Utility Reserves Management Practices. These Water Utility Reserves Management Practices replace previously adopted Reserves Policies for the Water Utility. SECTION 5. The Council finds that the adoption of this resolution does not constitute a project under Section 21065 of the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) and the CEQA Guidelines, and therefore, no environmental assessment is required. INTRODUCED AND PASSED: AYES: NOES: ABSENT: ABSTENTIONS: ATTEST: ___________________________ ___________________________ City Clerk Mayor APPROVED AS TO FORM: APPROVED: ___________________________ ___________________________ Senior Deputy City Attorney City Manager ___________________________ Director of Utilities ___________________________ Director of Administrative Services ELECTRIC UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN FY 2015 TO FY 2019 TABLE OF CONTENTS Definitions and Abbreviations ............................................................................................................................... 2 Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................................... 3 Current State of the Utility .................................................................................................................................... 4 Section I. Utility Overview ......................................................................................................................................... 4 Section II. Current Rates and Competitiveness ......................................................................................................... 5 Section III. Rate Design ............................................................................................................................................. 6 Section IV. Current Utility Financial Status ............................................................................................................... 7 Section V. Status of Reserves .................................................................................................................................... 8 Section VI. Status of Bond Covenants ..................................................................................................................... 10 Looking Back ........................................................................................................................................................ 10 Section VII. Background .......................................................................................................................................... 10 Section VIII. Historical Expenses and Revenues ....................................................................................................... 13 Looking Forward .................................................................................................................................................. 15 Section IX. Five Year Financial Forecast .................................................................................................................. 15 1. Overview ...................................................................................................................................................... 15 2. Commodity Supply Costs ............................................................................................................................. 16 3. Operations and Maintenance Costs ............................................................................................................ 17 4. Capital Improvement Program (CIP) ............................................................................................................ 17 5. General Fund Equity Transfer ...................................................................................................................... 18 Section X. Revenue Requirement and Revenue Sources ......................................................................................... 18 Section XI. Projected Consumption ......................................................................................................................... 21 Section XII. Long-term Outlook ............................................................................................................................... 22 Section XIII. Risk Assessment................................................................................................................................... 23 Section XIV. Communications Plan ......................................................................................................................... 25 Appendices .......................................................................................................................................................... 26 Appendix A: Electric Utility Financial Forecast Detail .............................................................................................. 27 Appendix B: Electric Utility Capital Improvement Program (CIP) Detail .................................................................. 28 Appendix C: Electric Utility Reserves Management Practices .................................................................................. 30 Appendix D: Electric Utility Bond Covenant Details ................................................................................................. 34 Appendix E: Description of Electric Utility Cost Categories ...................................................................................... 36 Appendix F: Samples of Recent Electric Utility Outreach Communications ............................................................. 37 ELECTRIC UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 2 | P a g e DEFINITIONS AND ABBR EVIATIONS CAISO: California Independent System Operator CIP: Capital Improvement Program CPAU: City of Palo Alto Utilities Department CPUC: California Public Utilities Commission CVP: Central Valley Project GWh: a gigawatt-hour, equal to 1,000 MWh or 1,000,000 kWh. Commonly used for discussing total monthly or annual electric load for the entire city, or the monthly or annual output of an electric generator. kWh: a kilowatt-hour, the standard unit of measurement for electricity sales to customers. kW: a kilowatt, a unit of measurement used in reference a customer’s peak demand (the highest 15 minute average consumption level in a month), which is used for billing large and mid-size commercial customers. kV: a kilovolt, one thousand volts, a unit of measurement of the voltage at which a section of the distribution system operates. The transmission system operates at 115-500 kV, and this is lowered to 60 kV in the subtransmission section of the Electric Utility’s distribution section, then 12 kV or 4 kV in the rest of the distribution system, and finally 120, 240, or 480 volts at the electric outlet. MWh: a megawatt-hour, equal to 1,000 kWh. Commonly used for measuring wholesale electricity purchases. MW: a megawatt, equal to 1,000 kW. Commonly used when discussing maximum electricity demand for all customers in aggregate. PG&E: Pacific Gas and Electric REC: Renewable Energy Certificate RPS: Renewable Portfolio Standard Subtransmission System: The section of the Electric Utility’s distribution system that operates at 60 kV and which interfaces with PG&E’s transmission system. Transmission System: Sections of the electric grid that operate at high voltages, generally 115 kV or more. The voltage at the intersection of the Electric Utility’s distribution system and PG&E’s transmission system is 115 kV. The Electric Utility does not own or operate any transmission lines. UCC: Utility Control Center SCADA: Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition system, the system of sensors, communications, and monitoring stations that enables system operators to monitor and operate the system remotely. ELECTRIC UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 3 | P a g e WAPA, or Western: Western Area Power Administration, the agency that markets power from CVP hydroelectric generators and other hydropower owned by the Bureau of Reclamation. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This document presents a financial plan for the City of Palo Alto’s Electric Utility for the next five years. The plan includes revenues to cover the costs of operating the utility safely over that time while adequately investing for the future. It also addresses the financial risks facing the utility over the short term and long term, and includes measures to mitigate and manage those risks. Over the next five fiscal years staff projects that total costs for the Electric Utility will rise by 3 to 4% per year as more renewable projects begin operation. Transmission costs are also projected to contribute to those increases. Operations and Capital Improvement Program (CIP) costs are projected to increase at 3% per year. To match revenues to these rising costs, the financial plan includes the rate trajectory shown in Table 1. This trajectory includes no planned rate increase for FY 2015. This will allow the utility to draw down accumulated reserves. For FY 2016 to FY 2019, rates are projected to increase 2 to 3% each year. This is equivalent to $0.90 to $1.36 per month for the median residential customer’s monthly electric bill. Table 1: Projected Electric Rate Trajectory for FY 2015 to FY 2019 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 0% 3% 3% 3% 2% This Financial Plan includes a set of Electric Utility Reserves Management Practices. These set forth the reserves held by the Electric Utility, their purposes, and guidelines for managing them. The Reserves Management Practices make the following changes to the utility’s existing reserves structure: 1. The addition of an Operations Reserve, a CIP Reserve, and an Unassigned Reserve to the Distribution Fund; 2. The addition of an Operations Reserve, a Hydro Stabilization Reserve, and an Unassigned Reserve to the Electric Supply Fund; 3. The closure of the Central Valley Project (CVP) Reserve and the transfer of all funds ($314,000) into the new Supply Operations Reserve; and 4. The closure of the Emergency Plant Replacement Reserve and the transfer of all funds ($1 million) into the new Distribution Operations Reserve. In addition, the plan includes the following transfers: 1. Transfer $9.1 million from the Distribution Rate Stabilization Reserve to the Distribution Operations Reserve; 2. Transfer $28 million from the Supply Rate Stabilization Reserve to the Hydro Stabilization Reserve; and 3. Transfer $19.6 million from the Supply Rate Stabilization Reserve to the Supply Operations Reserve. ELECTRIC UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 4 | P a g e CURRENT STATE OF THE UTILITY SECTION I. UTILITY OVERVIEW The City of Palo Alto’s Electric Utility provides electric service to the residents, businesses, and other electric customers in Palo Alto. There are roughly 29,300 customers connected to the electric system, 26,500 (90%) of which are residential and 2800 (10%) of which are non- residential. Residential customers consumed 187 gigawatt-hours (GWh) in FY 2013, approximately 20% of the electricity sold, while non-residential customers consumed 84% or 760 GWh. Residential customers use electricity primarily for lighting, refrigeration, electronics, and air conditioning.1 Non-residential customers use the majority of their electricity for cooling, ventilation, lighting, office equipment (offices), cooking (restaurants), and refrigeration (grocery stores).2 The Electric Utility receives electricity at a single connection point with Pacific Gas and Electric’s (PG&E’s) transmission system. From there the electricity is delivered to customers through nearly 470 miles of distribution lines, of which 223 miles (48%) are overhead lines and 245 miles (52%) are underground. The Electric Utility also maintains six substations, 2,004 overhead line transformers, 1,075 underground and substation transformers, and the associated electric services (which connect the distribution lines to the customers’ homes and businesses). These lines, substations, transformers, and services, along with their associated poles, meters, and other associated electric equipment, represent the vast majority of the infrastructure used to deliver electricity in Palo Alto. The City of Palo Alto Utilities Department (CPAU) manages an ongoing CIP to repair and replace that equipment over time. CIP expense accounts for 8% of the utility’s expenditures. In addition to the CIP, the Electric Utility performs a variety of maintenance and monitoring activities on the system. The entire system is monitored from the Utility Control Center (UCC) using the Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition System (SCADA), and staff members at the UCC help coordinate the routing of power through the system in response to outages and to accommodate routine maintenance activities. Other staff members perform routine maintenance and testing of the substations, test and replace meters, investigate customer inquiries and complaints related to power quality, clear vegetation from overhead lines, and diagnose outages and perform emergency repairs. The utility shares the costs of other operational activities such as customer service, billing, meter reading, supply planning, and energy efficiency with the City’s other utilities. These maintenance and operations expenses, as well as associated administration, debt service, rent, and other costs, make up 25% of the utility’s expenses. Electric supply represents the majority of the Electric Utility’s costs. Nearly 60% of the utility’s costs are related to purchasing electricity and transporting it to Palo Alto. Roughly 50% of the electricity is supplied from hydroelectric resources, 21% from Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) eligible renewables, with the remainder purchased in the market from unspecified 1 Source: Residential Appliance Saturation Survey, California Energy Commission, 2010 2 Source: Statewide Commercial End Use Study, California Energy Commission report, 2006. ELECTRIC UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 5 | P a g e generating sources. Under the City’s Carbon Neutral Plan, the amount of electricity from RPS- eligible sources will rise to nearly 50% by FY 2017. In the meantime, CPAU purchases renewable energy certificates (RECs) corresponding to its market purchases. Since its inception the Electric Utility has provided an annual return to the City’s General Fund. This equity transfer is calculated based on the net book value of the utility’s capital assets. The transfer accounts for 10% of the utility’s expenses. SECTION II. CURRENT RATES AND CO MPETITIVENESS CPAU’s last electric rate change took effect on July 1, 2009. Table 2, below, summarizes the current rates for the four largest customer classes. The Electric Utility also has specialty rates for smaller groups of customers. These include variations on its primary rates, such as time of use rates, the PaloAltoGreen rates, and solar net metering. Another specialty rate is the E-18 municipal electric rate. Table 2: Current Electric Rates (12/1/13) Rate Component Units E-1 (Residential) E-2 (Small Commercial) E-4 (Med. Commercial) E-7 (Large Commercial) Demand (Summer) $/kW N/A N/A 20.54 18.97 Demand (Winter) $/kW N/A N/A 13.84 11.54 Energy (Summer) Tier 1 $/kWh 0.09524 0.14045 0.08171 0.07808 Tier 2 $/kWh 0.13020 N/A N/A N/A Tier 3 $/kWh 0.17399 N/A N/A N/A Energy (Winter) Tier 1 $/kWh Same as summer energy 0.12661 0.07318 0.07209 Tier 2 $/kWh N/A N/A N/A Tier 3 $/kWh N/A N/A N/A Tier amounts: Tier 1 kWh/day 0-10 N/A N/A N/A Tier 2 kWh/day 10-20 N/A N/A N/A Tier 3 kWh/day >20 N/A N/A N/A Table 3 presents the median residential bills for Palo Alto, PG&E, and the City of Santa Clara (Silicon Valley Power) for several usage levels. For the median consumption level the annual bill for calendar year 2013 was $511.42 under current CPAU rates, 23% lower than the annual bill for a PG&E customer with the same consumption and roughly the same as the annual bill for a City of Santa Clara customer. The bill calculations for PG&E customers are based on PG&E Climate Zone X, which includes most surrounding comparison communities. Rates shown below were effective January 1, 2014. Only a single winter month and a single summer month is shown due to the fact that PG&E’s rates vary frequently due to rate adjustment mechanisms. ELECTRIC UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 6 | P a g e Table 3: Residential Monthly Electric Bill Comparison ($/mo) Season Usage (kwh) Palo Alto PG&E Santa Clara Winter (January) 300 28.57 39.69 31.90 (Median) 453 48.14 61.57 48.76 650 75.11 122.14 70.47 1200 170.80 319.20 131.08 Summer (July) 300 28.57 $ 39.69 31.90 (Median) 365 36.69 48.72 39.06 650 75.11 127.42 70.47 1200 170.80 326.22 131.08 Table 4, below, shows the average monthly electric bill for commercial customers for various usage levels for the same period. Bills for small commercial customers in Palo Alto are 35% below what they would be in PG&E territory and 18% below what they would be in Santa Clara (Silicon Valley Power). For large commercial customers, rates are 23% below PG&E’s and are comparable to Santa Clara’s (lower, for the largest commercial customers). Table 4: Commercial Monthly Electric Bill Comparison (3/1/14, $/mo) Usage (kwh/mo) Palo Alto PG&E Santa Clara 1,000 134 205 164 160,000 19,267 25,096 18,904 500,000 55,895 73,029 57,069 2,000,000 195,395 255,231 220,654 PG&E currently has recently stated its intention to file an application with the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) that would reduce the number of residential tiers from four to two, and allow all customers to opt for time-of-use pricing. If approved by the SFPUC, such changes would be phased in, possibly as soon as 2015. SECTION III. RATE DESIGN The Electric Utility’s current rate structure and methodology are consistent with the cost of service analysis (COSA) update in 2007 by Boris Metrics. Staff plans to review and update this cost of service study in 2014. Before conducting this new cost of service study, staff will review current rates and the scope of the study with the UAC and Council to determine UAC and Council policy priorities. There are a variety of rate-related topics currently being discussed by investor- and publicly-owned utilities across California, including the pros and cons of tiered rate structures, the impact of customer-owned generation (like net-metered solar) on rates and revenues, and rate design for electric vehicles. With the Electric Utility’s carbon neutral electric supply, some customers may be interested in gas to electric fuel switching, and the impact of rate design on this decision also bears some discussion. ELECTRIC UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 7 | P a g e SECTION IV. CURRENT UTILITY FINANCIAL STATUS In FY 2013, electric supply costs represented nearly 60% of the Electric Utility’s costs. Operations and CIP represented one quarter of the costs, and the remaining costs were for administration and overhead (7%) and the General Fund equity transfer (10%), as shown in Figure 2. These expenditures are also displayed by category of expenditure in Figure 1. The vast majority of the utility’s revenue came from sales of electricity (92%), with the remainder coming from capacity and connection fees (2%), and other sources (6%). Table 5 summarizes the Electric Utility’s financial outlook for FY 2014. Electric supply costs are projected to be $1.3 million lower than the adopted budget. While higher costs are projected due to low output from hydroelectric resources, lower than forecasted transmission costs will provide some relief, and the cost of renewable energy is forecasted to be much lower ($3.2 million) due to the delayed start of the San Joaquin renewable energy facility and termination of the Crazy Horse renewable energy project. Commercial load is growing more slowly than anticipated and, when combined with a shift in commercial consumption patterns, staff is anticipating sales revenue to be $5.0 million lower than forecast. Other expenses are projected to be approximately $5.4 million under budget due to savings in a variety of operations budgets. Figure 2: FY 2013 Costs by Activity Electric Supply, 57% GF Xfer, 10% CIP, 8% Operations, 18% Admin/ Overhead, 7% Figure 1: FY 2013 Costs by Category Electric Supply, 57% GF Xfer, 10% CIP, 8% Supplies/ Materials / Other, 5% Salaries/ Benefits, 9% Other, 4% Admin/ Overhead, 7% Table 5: Projected Electric Utility Net Revenue, FY 2014 Electric - Operating Activity All figures in thousands $ (000’s) Adopted Budget FY 2014 Unaudited Actuals Jul 13-Dec13 Projected Activity Jan 14-Jun 14 Projected FY 2014 Activity Variance to Budget Net Sales * 117,019 59,222 52,774 111,996 (5,023) Other revenues 15,920 7,271 9,504 16,775 855 Purchase cost to serve retail load (72,224) (34,485) (36,448) (70,933) 1,291 Other expenses ** (62,935) (32,365) (25,124) (57,489) 5,446 Surplus Energy costs (2,304) (831) (437) (1,268) 1,036 Surplus Energy revenues 2,316 544 519 1,063 (1,253) Total (2,208) (644) 788 144 2,352 * Includes misc. sales, adjustments, discounts, and bad debt ** Includes reserve transfers, salaries, allocated charges, other misc. expenses and encumbrances ELECTRIC UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 8 | P a g e SECTION V. STATUS OF RESERVES Table 6, below, shows the projected status of the Electric Utility’s reserves at the end of FY 2014. Total reserves at the end of FY 2014 are projected to be $143.7 million, of which $70.3 million will be in the Rate Stabilization Reserves. As detailed in Appendix C: Electric Utility Reserves Management Practices and in Table 4 below, staff has proposed various changes to the Electric Utility reserves: 1. The addition of an Operations Reserve, a CIP Reserve, and an Unassigned Reserve to the Distribution Fund; 2. The addition of an Operations Reserve, a Hydro Stabilization Reserve, and an Unassigned Reserve to the Electric Supply Fund; 3. The closure of the CVP Reserve and the transfer of all funds ($314,000) into the new Supply Operations Reserve; and 4. The closure of the Emergency Plant Replacement Reserve and the transfer of all funds ($1 million) into the new Distribution Operations Reserve. In addition, the plan includes the following transfers: 1. Transfer $9.1 million from the Distribution Rate Stabilization Reserve to the Distribution Operations Reserve; 2. Transfer $28 million from the Supply Rate Stabilization Reserve to the Hydro Stabilization Reserve; and 3. Transfer $19.6 million from the Supply Rate Stabilization Reserve to the Supply Operations Reserve. The addition of an Operations Reserve, CIP Reserve, and Unassigned Reserve will add transparency and simplify reserves management by providing separate reserves for various functions that are currently all served by the Rate Stabilization Reserves. The Op erations Reserve will be used to manage contingencies and absorb normal year-to-year cost and revenue fluctuations. The CIP Reserve will hold funds for expenditure on future budgeted CIP projects. The Rate Stabilization Reserve will be used to smooth the transition to higher rates. If the utility accumulates reserves that are not designated for a specific purpose, these will be placed in the Unassigned Reserve until those funds are either designated for a specific purpose or returned to ratepayers. Creating separate CIP, Rate Stabilization, and Unassigned Reserves allows the utility to set minimum and maximum guidelines for the Operations Reserve and set forth clear actions to be taken when it is over or under those levels. If funds are to be held for a specific purpose (for example, a future CIP project) these can be held in a separate reserve designed for that purpose (in this example, the CIP Reserve). Without a separate reserve, those funds would be held in the Operations Reserve and could cause it to exceed its maximum guideline, making it difficult to treat the maximum guideline as a clear limit on the size of the reserve. This proposal also adds transparency, since the public will be able to see the various purposes for which the utility is holding reserves. ELECTRIC UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 9 | P a g e This plan also involves merging the existing Emergency Plant Replacement Reserve into the Distribution Operations Reserve. Currently the Emergency Plant Replacement Reserve holds $1 million, enough to pay the City’s insurance deductible in the event of a loss of utility equipment due to an insurable loss. Staff believes that even at minimum l evels the Operations Reserve has adequate funding to cover the insurance deductible, making the Emergency Plant Replacement Reserve duplicative. This plan also establishes a Hydro Stabilization Reserve. This is part of the development of a comprehensive strategy for dealing with the fluctuations in costs created by the utility’s hydroelectric resources. The costs of these resources are largely fixed and must be paid Table 6: Projected Electric Utility Reserves, 6/30/2014 ($000) Projected Reserve Levels Proposed Reallocation of Reserves Projected After Reallocation Electric Supply Fund Reappropriations & Commitments 200 N/A 200 Electric Special Projects Reserve* 53,356 N/A 53,356 CVP Reserve 314 -314 (closed) Rate Stabilization Reserve 61,200 -51,407 13,916 Hydro Stabilization Reserve (new) 28,000 28,000 Operations Reserve (new) 19,598 19,598 Unassigned Reserve (new) 0 Total 115,070 0 115,070 Supply Operations Reserve: Days of Expense 90 days Supply Operations Reserve: Minimum 60 days Supply Operations Reserve: Target 90 days Supply Operations Reserve: Maximum 120 days Electric Distribution Fund Reappropriations & Commitments 16,645 N/A 16,645 Underground Loan Reserve 738 0 738 Emergency Plant Replacement 1,000 -1,000 (closed) Public Benefit Reserve 1,103 0 1,103 CIP Reserve (new) 0 0 Rate Stabilization Reserve 9,138 -9,138 0 Operations Reserve (new) 10,138 10,138 Unassigned Reserve (new) 0 0 Total 28,625 0 28,625 Dist. Operations Reserve: Days of Expense 92 days Dist. Operations Reserve: Minimum 60 days Dist. Operations Reserve: Target 90 days Dist. Operations Reserve: Maximum 120 days *Previously the Calaveras Reserve. See Staff Report ID#2160, November 1, 2011 ELECTRIC UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 10 | P a g e regardless of the amount of power they generate. That generation is highly variable. When production is lower than average, CPAU incurs additional costs because it is forced to buy market energy to replace the lost production. When production is higher than average, CPAU purchases less market energy and sells surplus energy in the spot markets. The Hydro Stabilization Reserve is one of several tools that can be used to balance out these fluctuations from year to year. The guidelines for this reserve will likely be revised in the future when CPAU establishes a more comprehensive hydro balancing strategy. This plan will leave 90 days of expenses in the Supply Operations Reserve and 92 days of expenses in the Distribution Operations Reserve, which is within the long term guidelines set forth in Appendix C: Electric Utility Reserves Management Practices. $13.9 million will be retained in the Supply Rate Stabilization Reserve to be drawn down in future years. SECTION VI. STATUS OF BOND COVEN ANTS The Electric Utility’s annual debt service is $100,000 per year. This is related to the 2007 Electric Utility Clean Renewable Energy Tax Credit Bonds, Series A, which will require payments through 2021. This $1.5 million issuance was to fund a portion of the construction costs of solar demonstration projects at the Municipal Services Center, Baylands Interpretive Center, and Cubberley Community Center. The total capacity of these projects was 250 kilowatt (kW). The City is in compliance with all covenants on the bond. Additional detail is provided in Appendix D. LOOKING BACK SECTION VII. BACKGROUND On January 16, 1900, Palo Alto began operating its own electric system. One of the earliest sources of Palo Alto's electricity was a steam engine that was later replaced by a diesel engine in 1914 due to rising fuel oil costs. As demand for electricity and the population continued to grow, CPAU connected to PG&E’s system in the early 1920s. Power from PG&E proved more economical than the diesel engines, and by the late 1920s CPAU was using its own diesel engines only during peak demand periods. At that time CPAU owned 45 miles of distribution lines and the City used 9.7 GWh annually, less than 1% of today’s annual consumption. The diesel engines remained in operation until 1948, when they were retired. From 1950 to 1970 electric consumption in Palo Alto grew dramatically, just as it did throughout the rest of the country. In 1970 total annual sales were 602 GWh, twenty times the 1950 sales of 30 GWh. Some of that growth was related to a development boom in Palo Alto, which doubled the number of customers. Some was related to the proliferation of electric appliances, as evidenced by the fact that residential customers were using three times more electricity in 1970 than they had been in 1950. But the most notable factor was the growth of industry in Palo Alto during that time. By 1970, commercial customers were using 20 times more electricity per customer than they had been in 1950. These decades also saw several other notable events, including: ELECTRIC UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 11 | P a g e  1964: CPAU entered into a favorably priced 40 year contract with the Federal Bureau of Reclamation to purchase power from the Central Valley Project (CVP).  1968: Palo Alto joined several other small municipal utilities to form the Northern California Power Agency (NCPA), a joint action agency intended to make the group less vulnerable to actions by private utilities and to enable investment in energy supply projects.  1965: The City began a long-term program to underground its overhead utility lines (Ordinance 2231) Palo Alto’s first new power plant investment in over 50 years came in the mid-80s. Palo Alto joined other NCPA members to invest in the construction and operation of the Calaveras Hydroelectric Project on the Stanislaus River in the Sierra-Nevada Mountains. The project commenced operation in 1990. The 1980s also saw an increased focus on infrastructure maintenance. In 1987 the UCC was built to house the terminals for a new SCADA system, which enabled utility staff to monitor the distribution system in real time, improving response time to outages. CPAU also commenced a preventative maintenance and planned replacement program for its underground system in the early 1990s. In the early 1990s the CPUC issued a ruling to deregulate the electric industry in California, and in 1996 the State legislature passed Assembly Bill 1890, which, among other things, created the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) to operate the transmission system and the Power Exchange to facilitate wholesale energy transactions. This restructuring was anticipated to bring lower costs to consumers, and while CPAU was not required to participate in t he industry restructuring, in 1997 the Council approved a Direct Access Program for the Electric Utility3 that enabled CPAU to sell electricity outside its service territory and allowed customers within CPAU’s service territory to choose other providers. The utility unbundled its electric rates, creating separate supply and distribution components, which would enable customers to receive only distribution service while purchasing the electricity itself from another provider . The energy crisis in 2000 to 2001 led to the suspension of competition by the CPUC in September 2001 as wholesale energy prices skyrocketed. The Electric Utility was less impacted than other utilities by the 2000 to 2001 energy crisis thanks to the Calaveras project and its contract with the Western Area Power Administration (WAPA)4 for CVP hydropower. In 2001 CPAU began planning for the impacts associated with the new terms of its contract with WAPA, set to take effect in 2005. The previous contract had provided 90% of Palo Alto’s power supply at favorable rates, and PG&E, as a party to the contract, had provided supplemental power to balance the monthly variability of CVP generation. The new contract would provide only a third of Palo Alto’s requirement, and the monthly variability in CVP generation would be passed directly through to Palo Alto. As a result, electric supply costs were going to increase and CPAU would need to begin more actively managing its supply portfolio. CPAU began purchasing power from marketers and also investigated building a power plant in Palo Alto or partnering in the development of a gas power plant elsewhere. Climate change was also becoming more of a concern to the community, and gradually CPAU shifted its focus to the 3 Implementation of Direct Access for Electric Utility Customers, CMR:460:97, December 1, 1997 4 The Western Area Power Administration is an office of the Department of Energy created in the 1970s to market power from various hydroelectric projects operated by the Federal Government, including the CVP. ELECTRIC UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 12 | P a g e procurement of renewable energy, with its first contract for wind power commencing in 2005. In 2002 CPAU adopted a goal of achieving 20% of its energy supply from renewables by 2015. In 2011 this goal was increased to 33% by 2015, and in 2013 the City adopted a plan to make its electric supply 100% carbon neutral, which it achieves through the combination of its hydroelectric supplies, purchases of long-term renewable energy supplies, and short-term renewable energy supplies via RECs to meet the balance of its needs. ELECTRIC UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 13 | P a g e SECTION VIII. HISTORICAL EXPENSES AND REVENUES The Electric Utility maintains separate funds for its electric supply portfolio expenses and its distribution operations and CIP expenses. Table 7 shows the Electric Utility’s expenses and revenues for the past five years. Total costs for this utility have decreased 11% since 2009, but there were a variety of notable cost increases and decreases that contributed to this net change. Commodity costs decreased Table 7: Electric Utility Historical Expenses ($000) *2009 costs are modified to remove the effects of a one-time, $2.9 million transfer between the Supply and Distribution Funds which affects the Other Misc. Rev and Other Transfers Out categories. 2009*2010 2011 2012 2013 1 Sales of Utilities 2 Retail Sales 104,637 112,105 110,915 108,344 109,189 3 Surplus Energy Sales 3,312 1,354 3,680 2,323 1,127 4 Total, Sales of Utilities 107,949 113,459 114,595 110,667 110,316 6 Interest+Investment Gain/Loss 7,712 5,749 3,203 4,099 (1,497) 7 Other Revenues: 8 Carbon Allowance Revenue - - - - 2,713 9 Service Connection Charges 1,053 1,042 1,329 1,468 1,987 10 CVP O&M Loan Credit 7,174 6,550 4,763 4,856 5,509 11 Other Misc. Rev. / Transfers In 3,245 3,744 1,559 2,126 1,510 12 Total, Other Revenues 11,473 11,336 7,651 8,450 11,720 13 Total Sources of Funds 127,134 130,544 125,449 123,216 120,538 14 Purchases of Utilities 15 Purchases to Serve Load 71,738 60,876 51,605 50,660 54,063 16 Surplus Energy Cost 3,305 1,439 4,879 3,198 1,740 17 CVP O&M Loan Advance 7,306 6,398 4,763 4,866 5,511 18 Total, Purchases of Utilities 82,348 68,713 61,247 58,724 61,314 19 Joint Venture Debt Service 8,086 7,819 7,243 8,803 9,166 20 Administration 6,591 2,766 6,689 7,738 9,034 19 Customer Service 1,651 1,897 1,882 1,909 2,007 21 Demand Side Management 3,409 4,048 3,491 5,010 3,530 20 Engineering (Operating)1,055 1,245 1,200 1,204 1,278 22 Operations & Maintenance 8,590 8,794 9,197 9,290 9,505 21 Resource Management 2,063 3,033 2,380 2,654 3,024 22 Rent 3,253 3,813 3,498 3,598 3,704 20 General Fund Transfers 9,268 11,120 11,195 11,587 11,768 23 Other Transfers Out 3,395 785 995 299 322 24 Capital Improvement Programs 9,912 12,598 13,877 7,974 9,775 25 Total Uses of Funds 139,611 126,633 122,896 118,790 124,425 26 Into/ (Out of) Reserves (12,477) 3,911 2,553 4,427 (3,887) Fiscal Year ELECTRIC UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 14 | P a g e by 22% over that time due to decreases in electricity market prices related to declines in the cost of natural gas. These decreases were offset by increases in the equity transfer to the General Fund and non-commodity operations costs. The FY 2010 through FY 2013 equity transfers were over 20% higher than the FY 2009 transfer due to a change in methodology adopted in 2009 and first taking effect in FY 2010. Excluding one-time transfers in 2009, non- commodity costs5 increased by roughly 2% per year from 2009 - 2013. Total revenues decreased 5% from FY 2009 to FY 2013, but this was due primarily to a decline in the interest income/investment category. Sales revenues increased over that period due to a rate increase on July 1, 2009. In FY 2013 the Electric Utility began receiving revenue related to the sale of carbon allowances allocated to it as part of the State’s cap and trade program. In FY 2013 the interest income category was affected by the recognition of mark to market decreases in the value of the City’s investment portfolio, though the value of the portfolio was still positive. Given that the City holds its investments to maturity these unrealized gains and losses do not impact the utility’s long term financial position. 5 All cost categories in Table 7 aside from Purchases of Utilities, Joint Venture Debt Service, CIP, and Equity Transfers ELECTRIC UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 15 | P a g e LOOKING FORWARD SECTION IX. F IVE YEAR FINANCIAL F ORECAST 1. OVERVIEW Staff has prepared a forecast of costs and revenues through FY 2019. As shown in Table 8 (and Appendix A: Electric Utility Financial Forecast Detail), total uses of funds for the Electric Table 8: Five Year Electric Utility Financial Forecast Summary Actual Adopted Projected 2013 2014 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 1 % CHG IN TOTAL SYSTEM RETAIL RATE 0%0%0%0%3%3%3%2% 2 TOTAL AVERAGE RATE ($/KWH)0.115$ 0.119$ 0.116$ 0.116$ 0.119$ 0.122$ 0.126$ 0.129$ 3 COMMODITY COST ($/KWH)0.052$ 0.063$ 0.063$ 0.061$ 0.062$ 0.064$ 0.066$ 0.065$ 4 SALES IN GWH 947 981 965 963 963 965 968 972 5 CHANGE IN RETAIL SALES REVENUE (90) - - (86) 3,089 3,085 4,114 2,571 6 Sales of Utilities 7 Retail Sales 109,189 116,630 111,711 111,530 114,469 117,751 122,226 125,316 8 Surplus Energy Sales 1,127 2,316 1,063 2,395 2,750 4,867 6,763 6,769 9 Total, Sales of Utilities 110,316 118,946 112,774 113,925 117,219 122,618 128,989 132,085 10 Interest+Investment Gain/Loss (1,497) 3,199 3,199 1,663 2,181 2,396 2,753 2,722 11 Other Revenues: 12 Carbon Allowance Revenue 2,713 4,296 4,296 3,910 3,976 4,299 4,493 4,611 13 Service Connection Charges 1,987 1,160 2,499 2,269 2,269 2,269 2,269 2,269 14 CVP O&M Loan Credit 5,509 6,000 5,407 6,000 6,000 6,000 6,000 6,000 15 Other Misc. Rev. / Transfers In 1,510 1,660 1,745 (52) 131 1,748 1,748 1,748 16 Total, Other Revenues 11,720 13,116 13,947 12,127 12,377 14,316 14,510 14,628 17 Total Sources of Funds 120,538 135,260 129,919 127,715 131,777 139,330 146,252 149,436 18 Purchases of Utilities 19 Purchases to Serve Load 54,063 66,205 65,454 63,372 64,801 67,002 68,975 68,102 20 Surplus Energy Cost 1,740 2,304 1,268 2,595 3,026 4,926 6,663 6,586 21 CVP O&M Loan Advance 5,511 6,000 5,407 6,000 6,000 6,000 6,000 6,000 22 Total, Purchases of Utilities 61,314 74,509 72,129 71,967 73,828 77,928 81,638 80,688 23 Joint Venture Debt Service 9,166 9,024 9,024 9,028 9,040 8,854 8,855 8,709 24 Administration (CIP + Operating)9,034 7,174 8,001 8,241 8,489 8,743 9,006 9,276 25 Customer Service 2,007 2,219 2,252 2,319 2,389 2,460 2,534 2,610 26 Demand Side Management 3,530 4,214 4,326 6,152 6,139 5,659 5,731 5,846 27 Engineering (Operating)1,278 1,605 1,522 1,567 1,614 1,663 1,713 1,764 28 Operations & Maintenance 9,505 10,602 9,458 9,742 10,035 10,336 10,646 10,965 29 Resource Management 3,024 5,347 3,213 1,894 1,951 2,009 2,069 2,131 30 Rent 3,704 3,819 3,819 3,934 4,052 4,173 4,299 4,428 31 General Fund Transfers 11,768 11,203 11,203 11,098 11,017 10,886 10,815 10,853 32 Other Transfers Out 322 123 281 123 123 123 123 123 33 Capital Improvement Programs 9,775 8,605 4,547 7,467 6,662 9,192 9,842 10,842 34 Total Uses of Funds 124,425 138,445 129,775 133,532 135,337 142,025 147,270 148,235 35 Into/ (Out of) Reserves (3,887) (3,185) 144 (5,818) (3,560) (2,696) (1,019) 1,201 Fiscal Year ELECTRIC UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 16 | P a g e Utility are projected to increase by 3% to 4% per year through FY 2019. The cost of purchased power (which includes Purchases of Utilities and Joint Venture Debt Service) is projected to increase at 5%. Non-commodity costs are projected to rise by 3% per year, and CIP costs are increasing by 2% per year. Sales revenues will need to increase by 2 to 3% per year for FY 2016 to FY 2019 to match these cost increases. 2. COMMODITY SUPPLY COS TS Table 9 shows the projected costs for the electric supply portfolio. These costs are increasing by 5% per year, on average, mainly due to increases in renewable energy costs as various renewable projects come online to fulfill the City’s carbon neutral and RPS goals. Transmission charges are also projected to increase as new transmission lines are built throughout California to accommodate new renewable projects. Table 9: Electric Supply Portfolio Costs, FY 2015 to FY 2019 ($000) FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 Hydroelectric (Calaveras + Western) 23,294 23,007 22,464 23,221 23,595 23,882 Renewable / Carbon Neutral / PA Green 16,569 16,939 21,276 26,080 33,481 33,520 Market Purchases 19,892 16,207 13,338 10,992 7,978 7,996 Transmission 13,038 14,850 15,821 16,394 15,219 14,013 Capacity Purchases 1,107 1,383 1,320 1,406 1,491 1,213 NCPA Scheduling and Operations 1,846 2,609 2,648 2,688 2,730 2,772 Central Valley Project O&M Advance 5,407 6,000 6,000 6,000 6,000 6,000 TOTAL 81,153 80,995 82,868 86,782 90,494 89,397 As shown in Table 10, the utility gets 54% of its energy from hydroelectric projects in a normal year (FY 2014 has been dry). Renewables are currently 21% of the portfolio, and are projected to rise to 46% in FY 2019. The remainder comes from unspecified market sources.6 The amount of market energy is projected to steadily decrease until 2017, when all energy is projected to come from hydro and renewable resources in an average hydro year. Table 10: Projected Electric Supply Sources, FY 2015 to FY 2019 (GWh) FY 2014 Adopted FY 2014 Projected FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 Load 1013 994 994 994 996 999 1003 Hydro 488 400 476 491 537 537 542 Renewables 243 204 236 287 358 468 467 Market Purchases 283 390 282 216 101 0 0 Total Resources 1013 994 994 994 996 1005 1010 6 Under the City’s Carbon Neutral Plan, CPAU purchases RECs corresponding to the amount of market energy it purchases. ELECTRIC UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 17 | P a g e 3. OPERATIONS AND MA INTENANCE COSTS Operations costs include the Customer Service, Demand Side Management, Operations and Maintenance, Engineering, Resource Management, and Administration categories in Table 8, above. Rent and transfers are also included in Operations costs (e xcluding the General Fund equity transfer). Appendix E: Description of Electric Utility Cost Categories includes detailed descriptions of these cost categories. Operations costs are projected to increase by 3% per year. Salary and benefits, inflation, and other assumptions match those used in the City’s long- range financial forecast. 4. CAPITAL IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM (CIP) The Electric Utility’s CIP is shown in Table 11, and consists of the following programs and budgets:  System Capacity and Reliability: CPAU monitors the distribution system and identifies sections that need upgrades to increase reliability or to provide additional capacity to deliver power. This category includes activities such as upgrading and replacing transformers, replacing distribution lines to increase capacity, improving system protection schemes (fuses, switches, etc.), and upgrading substation equipment.  Smart Grid and Advanced Metering: This project includes the cost of future upgrades to the distribution system and metering infrastructure to take advantage of advances in automation, sensing, and metering technologies. CPAU is currently operating pilot programs to determine the scope of the upgrades.  4/12 kilovolt (kV) Conversion: The distribution system currently has some sections that operate at 4 kV and some at 12 kV. CPAU is converting the 4 kV sections of the system to enable them to connect to the rest of the system more effectively, providing greater reliability. Operating the system at 12 kV also lowers energy losses.  Undergrounding: This category includes projects to move sections of the overhead system underground. These projects are generally funded in part by phone and cable companies, whose systems are undergrounded at the same time.  Underground System Rebuilding: Underground sections of the distribution system require periodic replacement due to the wear on the system associated with exposure to soil and water.  Software and Equipment: This category includes the costs of upgrades to the software, communications, and remote monitoring equipment used to monitor the system and plan upgrades. It includes the cost of upgrades to the SCADA system.  Customer Connections: This represents the cost when the Electric Utility installs new services or upgrades existing services at a customer’s request in response to development or redevelopment. Because the Electric Utility charges a fee to these customers to cover the cost, these are considered to be “customer-funded” projects.  One-time Projects: This category represents occasional large projects that do not fall into any other category. ELECTRIC UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 18 | P a g e Excluding smart grid projects, CIP spending is expected to increase by 3% per year through FY 2019. Smart grid upgrades, particularly in later years, are projected to cost substantial amounts of money, but CPAU does not have precise cost estimates yet. CPAU expects to finance these projects from the Electric Special Projects Reserve, transfers from the water and gas funds, and possibly through bond financing. Excluding smart grid updates, the CIP plan for FY 2015 to FY 2019 is primarily funded by utility rates, but other sources of funds include connection fees (for Customer Connections), phone and cable companies (primarily for undergrounding), and other funds (for smart grid). The details of the plan are shown in Appendix B: Electric Utility Capital Improvement Program (CIP) Detail. Table 11: Budgeted Electric Utility CIP Spending 5. GENERAL FUND EQUITY TRANSFER The City calculates the equity transfer from its Electric Utility based on a rate of return on the net book value of the utility’s capital assets7. The Council adopted this methodology in 2009 and it was first used in FY 2010. The equity transfer decreased in FY 2014 because it is benchmarked to PG&E’s return on equity, which decreased at that time. Changes in the equity transfer in later years of the forecast are related to forecasted changes in the net book value of the utility’s capital assets based on projected depreciation and capital spending. SECTION X. REVENUE REQUIREMENT AND REVENUE SOURCES 7 For more detail, see City Manager’s Report 260:09, Finance Committee, May 26, 2009. Project Category Current Budget* Spending, Curr. Yr Remain. Budget Committed FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 One-time Projects 1,258 (3) 1,255 887 - - - - - Smart Grid/Advanced Metering 1,477 (100) 1,377 183 - 500 3,000 3,000 3,000 System Capacity & Reliability 6,853 (1,858) 4,995 2,655 3,615 3,530 3,345 3,195 3,895 4/12 kV Conversion 999 - 999 - - 170 800 - - Undergrounding 2,039 (19) 2,020 3 800 100 300 2,150 2,500 Underground Rebuilding 3,645 (162) 3,483 - 1,175 800 500 - - Software & Equipment 680 (26) 654 175 325 330 535 325 330 Customer Connections 3,911 (1,215) 2,695 725 3,300 3,400 3,500 3,600 3,700 TOTAL 20,863 (3,383) 17,479 4,628 9,215 8,830 11,980 12,270 13,425 *Includes unspent funds from previous years carried forward or reappropriated into the current fiscal year. ELECTRIC UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 19 | P a g e The Electric Utility’s costs and revenues from FY 2013 through FY 2019 are shown in Figure 3 below. Revenues are currently below costs, but adequate reserves mean no rate increase is necessary in FY 2015. Rate increases for FY 2016 to FY 2019 are forecasted to be 2 to 3%. Each rate increase will increase the median residential monthly electric bill by $0.90 to $1.36 per month. This rate trajectory draws the Supply Rate Stabilization Reserve down to zero by FY 2019, as shown in Figure 4. Figure 5 shows the change in Distribution Fund reserves over the forecast period. These figures also include the proposed reallocations of reserves described in Section V. Status of Reserves. Figure 3: Electric Utility Revenue and Cost Projections ELECTRIC UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 20 | P a g e Figure 4: Electric Supply Fund Reserves Figure 5: Electric Distribution Fund Reserves Proposed reallocation (see Section V. Status of Reserves) Projected FY 2014 year-end reserves under existing reserves structure Proposed reallocation (see Section V. Status of Reserves) Projected FY 2014 year-end reserves under existing reserves structure ELECTRIC UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 21 | P a g e SECTION XI. PROJECTED CONSUMPTIO N Electricity consumption in Palo Alto is fairly stable due to the city’s moderate climate. Summer air conditioning loads, which have a major impact on other utilities’ load profiles, are moderate. Consumption is projected to stay stable over the forecast period, with growth being offset by energy efficiency savings. Consumption of electricity for electric vehicles is projected to more than double each year through the end of the forecast period, but this and other load growth is offset by improved building code standards, energy efficiency, and substantial numbers of rooftop solar installations. The total annual output of Palo Alto’s net metered rooftop solar installations8 is projected to be 20.6 GWh by FY 2019, or roughly 2.1% of annual sales, while annual savings from energy efficiency measures are projected to be 80 GWh (nearly 8% of annual sales) by that time. Figure 6 presents the historical electric consumption levels (with and without energy efficiency, solar, and electric vehicles included) from FY 2004 through FY 2013 and projections for FY 2014 through FY 2023. Consumption levels are projected to be 3% higher in FY 2019 than they were in FY 2013, the most recent year for which complete data is available. Figure 6: Historic and Projected Electric Consumption 8 This does not include Palo Alto CLEAN (feed -in tariff) projects, which are included in the supply forecast rather than the demand forecast. Actual Forecast ELECTRIC UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 22 | P a g e SECTION XII. LONG -TERM OUTLOOK This forecast covers the period from FY 2015 through FY 2019, but there are also various long- term developments that may create new costs for the utility over the next 5 to 35 years. While it is challenging to accurately forecast the impact these events will have on the utility’s costs, it is worth noting them as future milestones and keeping them in mind for long -term planning purposes. For the supply portfolio, the 2020s will see a number of notable events. The contract with WAPA for power from the CVP will expire in 2024. Working with WAPA and internally to determine the future relationship with WAPA after 2024 will be important in the years leading up to the contract expiration, especially because this resource represents nearly 40% of the electric portfolio, and represents the utility’s largest source of carbon-free electricity. The utility’s three earliest and lowest cost renewable contracts will also begin expiring around that time, with the first contract expiring in 2021 and the last in 2028. These three contracts, plus one more expiring in 2030, currently provide 17% to 18% of the energy for the utility’s supply portfolio at prices under $65 per megawatt-hour (MWh). It is difficult to know what renewable energy prices will be when those contracts expire. Although recent prices have been in that range, and costs may decrease in the future, current renewable projects also benefit from a wide range of tax and other incentives that may or may no t be available in the 2020s. The costs of the Calaveras hydro project will also change, with debt service costs dropping by half in 2025 as some of the debt is paid off, with all debt retired by the end of 2032 (assuming no new debt is issued). The project will only be 40 years old at that time. Calaveras debt service represents roughly 70% of the annual costs of that project (and nearly 7% of the utility’s total costs), so when the debt is retired, the project could be a low-cost asset for the utility, providing carbon free energy equal to 13% of the Electric Utility’s supply needs in an average year. Another factor that may affect the utility’s supply costs in the long run is carbon allowance revenue. Currently the Electric Utility receives $3 to 5 million per year in revenue from allocated carbon allowances under the State’s cap-and-trade program. It uses that revenue to pay for energy efficiency and to purchase renewable energy to support the utility’s Carbon Neutral Plan. That revenue source is expected to continue through 20 20, but there is no provision for the continuation of these allocations past 2020. If the Electric Utility no longer received these allowances, it would have to fund these programs from sales revenues. Transmission costs are also continuing to rise. If the State continues to increase mandates or incentives for renewable energy development, integrating these new projects into the transmission grid will be an ever increasing challenge, some costs of which will be borne by Palo Alto. In addition to the costs of new transmission lines that will need to be built, flexible resources will be required to balance rapid changes in wind or solar output throughout the day. Palo Alto will likely bear some of the costs of these new lines and resources. CPAU is also currently investigating installing a second transmission interconnection for Palo Alto, which could be funded by the Electric Special Projects reserve. Over the next several years the Electric Utility will continue to execute its usual monitoring, repair, and replacement routine for the distribution system. However, the utility will also likely ELECTRIC UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 23 | P a g e begin the rollout of various smart grid technologies, and will also start monitoring the growth of electric vehicle ownership and gas to electric fuel switching in Palo Alto. In the next 10 to 20 years, these factors may begin to create notable increases in electric consumption and have a variety of impacts on the distribution system. As housing stock is turned over, however, stricter building codes may help to counteract load growth, as may the increasing number of rooftop solar installations. The utility has already started to take some of these factors into account in its long term planning processes, but will need to con tinue to incorporate these long-term issues into its planning methodologies. Looking out toward 2050 and beyond, if the State were to adopt climate goals consistent with Executive Orders S-3-05 and B-16-2012 (which state a goal of reducing GHG emissions to 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050), or if similar local goals were adopted, it is conceivable that electricity could replace natural gas and petroleum almost entirely. Many, if not most, vehicles would use electricity, though hydrogen is another potential fuel source under development and other technologies might be developed. This scenario would require careful planning for the associated load growth to make sure the distribution system did not end up overloaded, or conversely, to avoid overinvestment. SECTION XIII. RISK ASSESSMENT Each year staff performs a risk assessment to assess the possible contingencies that could affect the utility’s financial position. The contingencies associated with Distribution Fund activities are assessed separately from Supply Fund contingencies. The Operations Reserves are projected to be adequate to manage these contingencies over the entire forecast period. As shown in Table 12, staff performs an annual assessment of financial risks for the Distribution Fund due to: 1. the maximum observed one-year distribution revenue variance over the past five years; and 2. an increase of 10% of planned system improvement CIP e xpenditures for the budget year. Table 12: Electric Distribution Fund Risk Assessment ($000) FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 Total Revenue 42,531 42,524 42,597 43,743 45,406 Max. Historical Revenue Variance 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% Budget-to-Actual Risk 3,402 3,402 3,408 3,499 3,632 System Rehabilitation CIP Budget 5,102 4,297 6,827 7,477 8,477 CIP Contingency @10% 510 430 683 748 848 Total Risk Assessment Value 3,912 3,832 4,091 4,247 4,480 Projected Distribution Operations Reserve Level 11,140 12,460 12,339 12,017 11,474 ELECTRIC UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 24 | P a g e There are a variety of risks associated with the Supply Fund, which contains the Electric Utility’s supply portfolio. These risks are shown below in Table 13. Because of the high range of uncertainty in energy price predictions more than three years in the future, this risk assessment is only performed for the first two fiscal years of the forecast period. It is important to note that the likelihood of all of these adverse scenarios occurring simultaneously and to the degree described in Table 13 is very low. Of the risks faced by the Electric Utility’s Supply Fund, the risk of a dry year with very low hydroelectric output is the largest, accounting for nearly half the total cost of all adverse outcomes. Since the utility’s costs for its hydroelectric re sources are almost entirely fixed, costs do not decline when the output of those resources are low, but the utility still needs to buy market power to replace the lost output. The converse happens when hydroelectric output is higher than average. Risks associated with hydroelectric output account for $9.3 million (45%) of FY 2015 contingencies. Of the remaining risks for FY 2015, $3.3 million (16%) is related to the projected costs if transmission cost increases are at the high end of staff’s current forecast. Another $3.1 million (15%) is related to the possibility of changes to WAPA rates for CVP hydropower, and $1.7 million (8%) is related to fluctuations in various market prices. $2.0 million (10%) relates to the risk associated with the failure of all of the utility’s existing landfill gas projects and the costs associated with replacing that energy at current renewable market prices, though it is highly unlikely that all three projects would fail. Table 13: Electric Supply Fund Risk Assessment Categories of Electric Supply Cost Uncertainties Estimates of Adverse Outcomes (M$) Notes FY 2015 FY 2016 1. Load Net Revenue 0.1 0.2 Revenue loss from load decreases (net of reduction in energy purchases) 2. Production from Hydroelectric Resources: Western & Calaveras 9.3 12.8 Lower than forecasted hydro 3. Renewable Production: Landfill & Wind 0.4 0.4 Higher than forecasted renewable output 4. Carbon Neutral Cost 0.3 0.4 Higher than forecasted market prices for RECs 5. Market Price 0.9 1.8 Higher than forecasted market prices for energy 6. Local Capacity 0.5 0.9 Higher than forecasted market prices for local capacity 7. Transmission/CAISO 3.3 4.1 High-end transmission forecast scenario 8. Plant Outage 1.0 1.0 Uninsured losses from Calaveras plant outage 9. Western Cost 3.1 3.5 Risk of rate adjustments from Western 10. Supplier Default 2.0 2.0 Consequences of project failure and supplier default for below market renewables currently in operation Electric Supply Fund Risks $20.9 million $27.1 million Projected Supply Operations + Hydro Stabilization Reserve Levels $47.6 million $48.3 million ELECTRIC UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 25 | P a g e SECTION XIV. COMMUNICATIONS PLAN The FY2015 Electric Utility communications strategy covers four primary areas: rates, efficiency, operations/infrastructure and safety. CPAU has not had an electric rate increase since 2009 and does not expect one in the upcoming year, so there is no need for formal “rate change” communications at this time, but website and community education about rates is ongoing. CPAU has been and will continue to communicate about the March 2013 decision to only purchase carbon-neutral electric supplies, which includes apprising the public of major renewable energy purchase agreements. Electric use efficiency incentives are promoted year - round; promotional activity includes bill inserts, website pages, email blasts, Home Energy Reports and the use of social media. To keep customers apprised of the status and accomplishments of capital improvement projects, a network of project web pages are maintained; traffic is driven to the website via ads in publications, newspaper inserts, social media and email blasts. Safety topics are emphasized year-round and, while print materials and website pages still feature prominently, CPAU is turning the outreach emphasis to direct mail, newspaper inserts, social media including video, cable TV, community safety/emergency preparation meetings and updates to neighborhood groups. This year, one prominent campaign drew public attention to the ongoing issue of electrical safety in storms, with the substation crew used as mascots for materials helping people prepare for and stay safe during windy, wet weather. Also, the ongoing “Keep Calm and...” campaign theme was used to launch a new LED light bulb discount program, the latest technology to be added to the list of efficiency improvements for which rebates are offered. ELECTRIC UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 26 | P a g e APPENDICES Appendix A: Electric Utility Financial Forecast Detail Appendix B: Electric Utility Capital Improvement Program (CIP) Detail Appendix C: Electric Utility Reserves Management Practices Appendix D: Electric Utility Bond Covenant Details Appendix E: Description of Electric Utility Cost Categories Appendix F: Samples of Recent Electric Utility Outreach Communications ELECTRIC UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 27 | P a g e APPENDIX A : ELECTRIC UTILITY FINANCIAL FORECAST D ETAIL Actual Adopted Projected 2013 2014 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 1 % CHG IN TOTAL SYSTEM RETAIL RATE 0%0%0%0%3%3%3%2% 2 TOTAL AVERAGE RATE ($/KWH)0.115$ 0.119$ 0.116$ 0.116$ 0.119$ 0.122$ 0.126$ 0.129$ 3 COMMODITY COST ($/KWH)0.052$ 0.063$ 0.063$ 0.061$ 0.062$ 0.064$ 0.066$ 0.065$ 4 SALES IN GWH 947 981 965 963 963 965 968 972 5 CHANGE IN RETAIL SALES REVENUE (90) - - (86) 3,089 3,085 4,114 2,571 6 Sales of Utilities 7 Retail Sales 109,189 116,630 111,711 111,530 114,469 117,751 122,226 125,316 8 Surplus Energy Sales 1,127 2,316 1,063 2,395 2,750 4,867 6,763 6,769 9 Total, Sales of Utilities 110,316 118,946 112,774 113,925 117,219 122,618 128,989 132,085 10 Interest+Investment Gain/Loss (1,497) 3,199 3,199 1,663 2,181 2,396 2,753 2,722 11 Other Revenues: 12 Carbon Allowance Revenue 2,713 4,296 4,296 3,910 3,976 4,299 4,493 4,611 13 Service Connection Charges 1,987 1,160 2,499 2,269 2,269 2,269 2,269 2,269 14 CVP O&M Loan Credit 5,509 6,000 5,407 6,000 6,000 6,000 6,000 6,000 15 Other Misc. Rev. / Transfers In 1,510 1,660 1,745 (52) 131 1,748 1,748 1,748 16 Total, Other Revenues 11,720 13,116 13,947 12,127 12,377 14,316 14,510 14,628 17 Total Sources of Funds 120,538 135,260 129,919 127,715 131,777 139,330 146,252 149,436 18 Purchases of Utilities 19 Purchases to Serve Load 54,063 66,205 65,454 63,372 64,801 67,002 68,975 68,102 20 Surplus Energy Cost 1,740 2,304 1,268 2,595 3,026 4,926 6,663 6,586 21 CVP O&M Loan Advance 5,511 6,000 5,407 6,000 6,000 6,000 6,000 6,000 22 Total, Purchases of Utilities 61,314 74,509 72,129 71,967 73,828 77,928 81,638 80,688 23 Joint Venture Debt Service 9,166 9,024 9,024 9,028 9,040 8,854 8,855 8,709 24 Administration (CIP + Operating)9,034 7,174 8,001 8,241 8,489 8,743 9,006 9,276 25 Customer Service 2,007 2,219 2,252 2,319 2,389 2,460 2,534 2,610 26 Demand Side Management 3,530 4,214 4,326 6,152 6,139 5,659 5,731 5,846 27 Engineering (Operating)1,278 1,605 1,522 1,567 1,614 1,663 1,713 1,764 28 Operations & Maintenance 9,505 10,602 9,458 9,742 10,035 10,336 10,646 10,965 29 Resource Management 3,024 5,347 3,213 1,894 1,951 2,009 2,069 2,131 30 Rent 3,704 3,819 3,819 3,934 4,052 4,173 4,299 4,428 31 General Fund Transfers 11,768 11,203 11,203 11,098 11,017 10,886 10,815 10,853 32 Other Transfers Out 322 123 281 123 123 123 123 123 33 Capital Improvement Programs 9,775 8,605 4,547 7,467 6,662 9,192 9,842 10,842 34 Total Uses of Funds 124,425 138,445 129,775 133,532 135,337 142,025 147,270 148,235 35 Into/ (Out of) Reserves (3,887) (3,185) 144 (5,818) (3,560) (2,696) (1,019) 1,201 SUPPLY FUND 36 Reappropriations & Commitments 1,220 1,220 1,220 1,220 1,220 1,220 1,220 1,220 37 Electric Special Projects 51,838 51,838 53,356 53,356 53,356 53,356 53,356 53,356 38 Central Valley Project 314 314 - - - - - - 39 Rate Stabilization 65,323 61,305 13,916 8,205 2,596 - - - 40 Hydro Stabilization - - 28,000 28,000 28,000 28,000 28,000 28,000 41 Operations - - 19,598 19,593 20,322 20,343 19,647 21,391 42 Unassigned - - - - - - - - 43 TOTAL, SUPPLY FUND 118,695 114,676 116,090 110,373 105,494 102,919 102,222 103,967 44 Risk Assessment Value (Supply)20,913 25,014 45 Hydro + Operations Reserve Level 47,598 47,593 48,322 48,343 47,647 49,391 46 Supply Operations Reserve: 47 Min (60 Days Commodity/Operations)13,065 13,062 13,548 14,110 14,725 14,563 48 Target (90 Days Commodity/Operations)19,598 19,593 20,322 21,165 22,087 21,844 49 Max (120 Days Commodity/Operations)26,131 26,123 27,095 28,220 29,449 29,126 DISTRIBUTION FUND 50 Reappropriations & Commitments 16,645 16,645 16,645 16,645 16,645 16,645 16,645 16,645 51 Plant Replacement 1,000 1,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 52 Underground Loan 738 738 738 738 738 738 738 738 53 Public Benefits 2,197 1,215 1,103 - - - - - 54 Rate Stabilization 3,705 5,520 - - - - - - 55 Capital Improvement Program - - - - - - - - 56 Operations - - 10,138 11,140 12,460 12,339 12,017 11,474 57 Unassigned - - - - - - - - 58 TOTAL, DISTRIBUTION FUND 24,286 25,119 28,625 28,523 29,843 29,722 29,400 28,857 59 Risk Assessment Value (Distribution)3,913 3,832 4,090 4,247 4,480 60 Distribution Operations Reserve: 61 Min (60 Days O&M)6,594 6,972 7,081 7,108 7,240 7,401 62 Target (90 Days O&M)9,892 10,458 10,621 10,662 10,860 11,102 63 Max (120 Days O&M)13,189 13,944 14,162 14,216 14,480 14,802 Fiscal Year ELECTRIC UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 28 | P a g e APPENDIX B : ELECTRIC UTILITY CAPITAL IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM (CIP) DETAIL Project #Project Name Reappropriated / Carried Forward from Previous Years Current Year Funding Budget Amendments Spending, Current Year Remaining in CIP Reserves Commitments FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 ONE-TIME PROJECTS EL-10009 Street Light Sys Conversion Project 2,158,383 500,000 (1,400,000) (3,391) 1,254,992 886,590 - - - - - Subtotal, One-time Projects 2,158,383 500,000 (1,400,000) (3,391) 1,254,992 886,590 - - - - - SMART GRID AND ADVANCED METERING EL-11014 Smart Grid Technology Installation 272,345 1,000,000 - (84,069) 1,188,276 169,913 - 500,000 3,000,000 3,000,000 3,000,000 EL-10008 Advanced Metering Infrastructure 204,597 - - (15,948) 188,649 13,000 - - - - - Subtotal, Customer Connections 476,942 1,000,000 - (100,017) 1,376,925 182,913 - 500,000 3,000,000 3,000,000 3,000,000 SYSTEM CAPACITY & RELIABILITY EL-89038 Substation Protection Improvements 310,552 275,000 - (72,432) 513,120 215,565 280,000 290,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 EL-89044 Substation Facility Improvements 132,205 180,000 - (53,007) 259,198 107,349 185,000 190,000 195,000 195,000 195,000 EL-98003 Electric System Improvements 2,004,352 2,400,000 (900,000) (589,138) 2,915,214 1,843,781 2,450,000 2,500,000 2,550,000 2,600,000 2,650,000 EL-04012 Utility Site Security 495,996 - - (7,692) 488,304 420,628 250,000 250,000 - - - EL-06001 230 kV Electric Intertie 162,523 - - (10,414) 152,109 - 50,000 - - - - EL-11015 Reconductor 60kV Overhead Sys 1,448,301 - (350,000) (1,030,994) 67,307 62,257 - - - - - EL-12002 Hanover 22 - Xfrmr Replacement 94,009 - - (87,329) 6,680 5,653 - - - - - EL-13002 Quarry/Hopkins Substation 60kV Line - - - - - - - - - 100,000 750,000 EL-13004 Hansen Way/Hanover 12kV Ties 75,000 200,000 (275,000) - - - - - - - - EL-13005 Colorado 20/21-Xfrmr Replacement - - - - - - - - - - - EL-13006 Sand Hill / Quarry 12 kV Tie 49,891 200,000 - (6,494) 243,397 - - - - - - EL-13007 Underground Dist. System Security 300,000 - - - 300,000 - - 300,000 300,000 - - EL-14005 Reconfigure Quarry Feeders - 50,000 - (49) 49,951 - 400,000 - - - - EL-15000 Colorado/Hopkins Sys. Improvement - - - - - - 50,000 - - - - EL-15001 Substation Battery Replacement - - - - - - 400,000 - - - - Subtotal, System Capacity & Reliability 5,072,829 3,305,000 (1,525,000) (1,857,549) 4,995,280 2,655,233 3,615,000 3,530,000 3,345,000 3,195,000 3,895,000 4/12 KV CONVERSION EL-08000 E. Charleston 4/12kV 314,115 - 100,000 - 414,115 - - - - - - EL-09002 Middlefield/Colorado 4/12 kV - - - - - - - - - - - EL-09004 W. Charleston/Wilkie Way 4/12 kV 635,000 - (500,000) - 135,000 - - - - - - EL-12003 Hopkins Substation Rebuild - - - - - - - - - - - EL-13000 Edgewood/Wildwood 4/12 kV Tie - - - - - - - 50,000 400,000 - - EL-14000 Coleridge/Cowper/Tennyson 4/12 kV - - - - - - - 120,000 400,000 - - EL-14004 Maybell 1&2 4/12 kV Conversion - 450,000 - - 450,000 - - - - - - Subtotal, 4/12 kV Conversion 949,115 450,000 (400,000) - 999,115 - - 170,000 800,000 - - UNDERGROUNDING EL-06002 UG District 45 144,856 - - (3,651) 141,205 2,961 - - - - - EL-08001 UG District 42 - - - - - - - - 150,000 150,000 2,000,000 EL-11009 UG District 43 - - - - - - - - 150,000 2,000,000 500,000 EL-11010 UG District 47 1,794,260 - - (15,101) 1,779,159 2 400,000 - - - - EL-12001 UG District 46 99,883 - - - 99,883 - 400,000 100,000 - - - Subtotal, Undergrounding 2,038,999 - - (18,752) 2,020,247 2,963 800,000 100,000 300,000 2,150,000 2,500,000 ELECTRIC UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 29 | P a g e Project #Project Name Reappropriated / Carried Forward from Previous Years Current Year Funding Budget Amendments Spending, Current Year Remaining in CIP Reserves Commitments FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 UNDERGROUND REBUILDING EL-04010 Foothills System Rebuild 35,587 75,000 - (15,148) 95,439 - - - - - - EL-05000 El Camino Underground Rebuild 396,287 - 75,000 (40,024) 431,263 - - - - - - EL-09000 Middlefield Underground Rebuild (42,073) 200,000 - (62,895) 95,032 - 250,000 - - - - EL-09003 Rebuild UG Dist 17 (Downtown)484,429 - (400,000) 11,847 96,276 - - - - - - EL-10006 Rebuild UG Dist 24 926,881 - - (34,920) 891,961 - 850,000 - - - - EL-11001 Torreva Court Rebuild 7,195 - - (8,029) (834) - - - - - - EL-11003 Rebuild UG Dist 15 469,210 - - - 469,210 - - - - - - EL-11004 Hewlett Subdivision Rebuild 181,363 - (120,000) (12,772) 48,591 - - - - - - EL-11006 Rebuild UG Dist 18 242,955 200,000 - - 442,955 - 75,000 - - - - EL-11007 Rebuild Greenhouse Condo Area 347,384 - - - 347,384 - - - - - - EL-11008 Rebuild UG Dist 19 104,880 - - - 104,880 - - - - - - EL-12000 Rebuild UG Dist 12 11,185 450,000 - - 461,185 - - - - - - EL-13003 Rebuild UG Dist 16 - - - - - - - 300,000 - - - EL-14002 Rebuild UG Dist 20 - - - - - - - 500,000 500,000 - - EL-16000 Rebuild UG Dist 26 - - - - - - - 500,000 - - - Subtotal, Underground Rebuilding 3,165,283 925,000 (445,000) (161,941) 3,483,342 - 1,175,000 800,000 500,000 - - SCADA & COMMUNICATIONS EL-02010 SCADA System Upgrade 149,498 - 30,000 (2,788) 176,710 118,347 60,000 65,000 270,000 60,000 65,000 EL-89031 Communications System 30,071 - 60,000 (1,021) 89,050 - 100,000 100,000 100,000 100,000 100,000 Subtotal, Ongoing 179,569 - 90,000 (3,809) 265,760 118,347 160,000 165,000 370,000 160,000 165,000 SOFTWARE EL-02011 Electric Utility GIS 35,892 225,000 - (22,577) 238,315 56,381 165,000 165,000 165,000 165,000 165,000 EL-13008 Upgrade Electric Estimating System 150,000 - - - 150,000 - - - - - - Subtotal, Customer Connections 185,892 225,000 - (22,577) 388,315 56,381 165,000 165,000 165,000 165,000 165,000 CUSTOMER CONNECTIONS (FEE FUNDED) EL-89028 Electric Customer Connections 110,546 2,200,000 1,600,000 (1,215,232) 2,695,314 725,355 3,300,000 3,400,000 3,500,000 3,600,000 3,700,000 Subtotal, Customer Connections 110,546 2,200,000 1,600,000 (1,215,232) 2,695,314 725,355 3,300,000 3,400,000 3,500,000 3,600,000 3,700,000 GRAND TOTAL 14,337,557 8,605,000 (2,080,000) (3,383,268) 17,479,289 4,627,782 9,215,000 8,830,000 11,980,000 12,270,000 13,425,000 Funding Sources Connection Fees 1,000,000 725,000 1,500,000 1,550,000 1,600,000 1,650,000 1,700,000 Other Companies (Phone/CATV Co.)160,000 - 370,000 230,000 190,000 900,000 960,000 Other Utility Funds (Smart Grid)666,667 - - - - - - Utility Rates 6,778,333 (2,805,000) 7,345,000 7,050,000 10,190,000 9,720,000 10,765,000 CIP-RELATED RESERVES DETAIL 6/30/2013 (Actual)12/31/2013 Reappropriations 12,236,059 12,851,507 Commitments 2,101,498 4,627,782 ELECTRIC UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 30 | P a g e APPENDIX C : ELECTRIC UTILITY RESERVES MANAGEMENT PRACTICES The following reserves management practices are used when developing the Electric Utility Financial Plan: Section 1. Definitions a) “Financial Planning Period” – The Financial Planning Period is the range of future fiscal years covered by the Financial Plan. For example, if the Financial Plan delivered in conjunction with the FY 2015 budget includes projections for FY 2015 to FY 2019, FY 2015 to FY 2019 would be the Financial Planning Period. b) “Fund Balance” – As used in these Reserves Management Practices, Fund Balance refers to the Utility’s Unrestricted Net Assets. c) “Net Assets” - The Government Accounting Standards Board defines a Utility’s Net Assets as the difference between its assets and liabilities. d) “Unrestricted Net Assets” - The portion of the Utility’s Net Assets not invested in capital assets (net of related debt) or restricted for debt service or other restricted purpo ses. Section 2. Supply Fund Reserves The Electric Supply Fund Balance is reserved for the following purposes: a) For existing contracts, as described in Section 4 (Reserve for Commitments) b) For operating and capital budgets reappropriated from previous years, as described in Section 5 (Reserve for Reappropriations) c) For special projects for the benefit of the Electric Utility ratepayers, as described in Section 6 (Electric Special Projects Reserve) d) For year to year balancing of costs associated with the Electric Utility’s hydroelectric resources, as described in Section 7 (Hydro Stabilization Reserve) e) For rate stabilization, as described in Section 11 (Rate Stabilization Reserves) f) For operating contingencies, as described in Section 12 (Operations Reserves) g) Any funds not included in the other reserves will be considered Unassigned Reserves and shall be returned to ratepayers or assigned a specific purpose as described in Section 13 (Unassigned Reserves). Section 3. Distribution Fund Reserves The Electric Distribution Fund Balance is reserved for the following purposes: a) For existing contracts, as described in Section 4 (Reserves for Commitments) b) For operating and capital budgets reappropriated from previous years, as described in Section 5 (Reserves for Reappropriations) c) As an offset to underground loan receivables, as described in Section 8 (Underground Loan Reserve) d) To hold Public Benefit Program funds collected but not yet spent, as described in Section 9 (Public Benefits Reserve) e) For future year expenditure on the Electric Utility’s Capital Improvement Program (CIP), as described in Section 10 (CIP Reserve) f) For rate stabilization, as described in Section 11 (Rate Stabilization Reserves) ELECTRIC UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 31 | P a g e g) For operating contingencies, as described in Section 12 (Operations Reserves) h) Any funds not included in the other reserves will be considered Unassigned Reserves and shall be returned to ratepayers or assigned a specific purpose as described in Section 14 (Unassigned Reserves). Section 4. Reserves for Commitments At the end of each fiscal year the Electric Supply Fund and Electric Distribution Fund Reserves for Commitments will be set to an amount equal to the total remaining spending authority for all contracts in force for the Electric Supply Fund and Electric Di stribution Fund, respectively, at that time. Section 5. Reserves for Reappropriations At the end of each fiscal year the Electric Supply Fund and Electric Distribution Fund Reserves for Reappropriations will be set to an amount equal to the amount of all remaining capital and non-capital budgets that will be reappropriated to the following fiscal year for each Fund in accordance with Palo Alto Municipal Code Section 2.28.090. Section 6. Electric Special Projects Reserve The Electric Special Projects Reserve (ESP Reserve) will be managed in accordance with the policies and timelines set forth in Resolution 9206 (Resolution of the Council of the City of Palo Alto Approving Renaming the Calaveras Reserve to the Electric Special Project Reserve and Adoption of Electric Special Project Reserve Guidelines). These policies and timelines are included below as amended to refer to the reserves structure set forth in these Reserves Management Practices: a) The purpose of the ESP Reserve is to fund projects that benefit electric ratepayers; b) The ESP Reserve funds must be used for projects of significant impact; c) Projects proposed for funding must demonstrate a need and value to electric ratepayers. The projects must have verifiable value and must not be speculative, or he high-risk in nature; d) Projects proposed for funding must be substantial in size, requiring funding of at least $1 million; e) The preferred projects to be funded by the ESP Reserve must be identified by end of FY 2015; f) Any uncommitted funds remaining at the end of FY 2020 will be transferred to the Electric Supply Operations Reserve and the ESP Reserve will be closed; and g) Funds may be used for analysis and pilot projects which would be the basis for planned large projects. Section 7. Hydro Stabilization Reserve Supply cost savings and surplus energy sales revenue associated with higher than average generation from hydroelectric resources may be added to the Electric Supply Fund’s Hydro Stabilization Reserve by action of the City Council and held to offset higher commodity supply costs during years of lower than average generation. Withdrawal of funds from the Hydro Stabilization Reserve requires action by the City Council. ELECTRIC UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 32 | P a g e Section 8. Underground Loan Reserve At the end of each fiscal year, the Underground Loan Reserve will be adjusted by the principal payments made against outstanding underground loans. Section 9. Public Benefits Reserve The Public Benefits Reserve will be increased by the amount of unspent Public Benefits Revenues remaining at the end of each fiscal year. Expenditure of these funds requires action by the City Council. Section 10. CIP Reserve Funds may be added to the Electric Distribution Fund CIP Reserve by action of the City Council and held for future year expenditure on the Electric Utility’s CIP Program. Withdrawal of funds from the CIP Reserve requires City Council action. If there are funds in the CIP Reserve at the end of any fiscal year, any subsequent Electric Utility Financial Plan must result in the withdrawal of all funds from this Reserve by the end of the Financial Planning Period. Section 11. Rate Stabilization Reserves Funds may be added to the Electric Supply or Distribution Fund’s Rate Stabilization Reserves by action of the City Council and held to manage the trajectory of future year rate increases. Withdrawal of funds from either Rate Stabilization Reserve requires action by the City Council. If there are funds in either Rate Stabilization Reserve at the end of any fiscal year, any subsequent Electric Utility Financial Plan must result in the withdrawal of all funds from this Reserve by the end of the Financial Planning Period. Section 12. Operations Reserves The Electric Supply Fund and Electric Distribution Fund Operations Reserves are used to manage normal variations in the costs of providing electric service and as a reserve for contingencies. Any portion of the Electric Utility’s Fund Balance not included in the reserves described in Section 4 to Section 11 above will be included in the appropriate Operations Reserve unless the reserve has reached its maximum level as set forth in Section 12 (e) below. Staff will manage the Operations Reserves according to the following practices: a) The following guideline levels are set forth for the Electric Supply Fund Operations Reserve. These guideline levels are calculated for each fiscal year of the Financial Planning Period based on the levels of Operations and Maintenance (O&M) and commodity expense forecasted for that year in the Financial Plan. Minimum Level 60 days of Supply Fund O&M and commodity expense Target Level 90 days of Supply Fund O&M and commodity expense Maximum Level 120 days of Supply Fund O&M and commodity expense ELECTRIC UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 33 | P a g e b) The following guideline levels are set forth for the Electric Distribution Fund Operations Reserve. These guideline levels are calculated for each fiscal year of the Financial Planning Period based on the levels of O&M and commodity expense commodity expense forecasted for that year in the Financial Plan. Minimum Level 60 days of Distribution Fund O&M Expense Target Level 90 days of Distribution Fund O&M Expense Maximum Level 120 days of Distribution Fund O&M Expense c) Minimum Level: If, at the end of any fiscal year, the funds remaining in the Supply Fund or Distribution Fund’s Operations Reserve are lower than the minimum level set forth above, staff shall present a plan to the City Council to replenish the reserve. The plan shall be delivered within six months of the end of the fiscal year, and shall, at a minimum, result in the reserve reaching its minimum level by the end of the following fiscal year. For example, if the Operations Reserve is below its minimum level at the end of FY 2014, staff must present a plan by December 31, 2014 to return the reserve to its minimum level by June 30, 2015. In addition, staff may present an alternative plan that takes longer than one year to replenish the reserve. d) Target Level: If, at the end of any fiscal year, either Operations Reserve is higher or lower than the target level, any Financial Plan created for the Electric Utility shall be designed to return both Operations Reserves to their target levels by the end of the forecast period. e) Maximum Level: If, at any time, either Operations Reserve reaches its maximum level, no funds may be added to this Reserve. Any further increase in that fund’s Fund Balance shall be automatically included in the Unassigned Reserve described in Section 13, below. Section 13. Unassigned Reserves If the Operations Reserve in either the Electric Supply Fund or the Electric Distribution Fund reaches its maximum level, any further additions to that fund’s Fund Balance will be held in the Unassigned Reserve. If there are any funds in either Unassigned Reserve at the end of any fiscal year, the next Financial Plan presented to the City Council must include a plan to assign them to a specific purpose or return them to the Electric Utility ratepayers by the end of the first fiscal year of the next Financial Planning Period. For example, if there were funds in the Unassigned Reserves at the end of FY 2016, and the next Financial Planning Period is FY 2017 through FY 2021, the Financial Plan shall include a plan to return or assign the funds in the Unassigned Reserve by the end of FY 2017. Staff may present an alternative plan that retains these funds or returns them over a longer period of time. Section 14. Intra-Utility Transfers between Supply and Distribution Funds Transfers between Electric Distribution Fund Reserves and Electric Supply Fund Reserves are permitted if consistent with the purposes of the two reserves involved in the transfer. Such transfers require action by the City Council. ELECTRIC UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 34 | P a g e APPENDIX D : ELECTRIC UTILITY BOND COVENANT DETAIL S The Electric Utility currently makes payment on one bond issuance, the 2007 Electric Utility Clean Renewable Energy Tax Credit Bonds, Series A. This $1.5 million bond issuance was to fund a portion of the construction costs of solar demonstration projects at the Municipal Services Center, Baylands Interpretive Center, and Cubberley Community Center . The capacity of these projects totaled 250 kW. In exchange for funding part of the construction costs Electric Utility receives the RECs from these projects. The bonds were Clean Renewable Energy Bonds (CREBs), meaning they are interest free (the investors receive a tax credit from the federal government). This bond issuance is secured by the net revenues of the Electric Utility. Debt service for this bond continues through 2021, and for the financial forecast period is as follows: Table 14: Electric Utility Debt Service ($000) FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 2007 Clean Renewable Energy Bonds 100 100 100 100 100 100 The 2007 bonds include a covenant stating that the Electric Utility will maintain a debt coverage ratio of 125% of debt service. The current financial plan complies with this covenant throughout the forecast period, as shown in Table 15. Table 15: Electric Utility Debt Service Coverage Ratio ($000) FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 Revenues 129,919 127,715 131,777 139,330 146,252 149,436 Expenses (Excluding CIP and Debt Service) (125,128) (125,965) (128,575) (132,733) (137,328) (137,293) Net Revenues 4,791 1,750 3,202 6,597 8,924 12,143 Debt Service 100 100 100 100 100 100 Coverage Ratio 4791% 1750% 3202% 6597% 8924% 12143% The Electric Utility’s reserves and net revenue are also pledged as security for the bond issuances listed in Table 16, even though the Electric Utility is not responsible for the debt service payments. The Electric Utility’s reserves or net revenues would only be called upon if the responsible utilities are unable to make their debt service payments. S taff does not currently foresee this occurring. Amounts advanced from one utility to pay debt service for another utility will be repaid by the borrowing fund. ELECTRIC UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 35 | P a g e Table 16: Other Issuances Secured by Electric Utility’s Revenues or Reserves Bond Issuance Responsible Utilities Annual Debt Service ($000) Secured by Electric Utility’s: Net Revenues Reserves 1995 Utility Revenue Bonds, Series A Storm Drain $680 Yes No 1999 Utility Revenue Bonds, Series A Storm Drain Wastewater Collection Wastewater Treatment $1,207 No Yes 2009 Water Revenue Bonds (Build America Bonds) Water $1,977* No Yes 2011 Utility Revenue Refunding Bonds, Series A Gas Water $1,457 No Yes *Net of Federal interest subsidy ELECTRIC UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 36 | P a g e APPENDIX E : DESCRIPTION OF ELECTRIC UTILITY COST CATEGORIES This appendix describes the activities associated with the various cost categories referred to in this Financial Plan. Customer Service: This category includes the Electric Utility’s share of the call center, meter reading, collections, and billing support functions. Billing support encompasses staff time associated with bill investigations and quality control on certain aspects of the billing process. It does not include maintenance of the billing system itself, which is included in Administration. This category also includes CPAU’s key account representatives, who work with large commercial customers who have more complex requirements for their electric services. Resource Management: This category includes supply portfolio management, energy procurement, rate setting, and tracking of legislation and regulation related to the electric industry. Operations and Maintenance: This category includes the costs of a variety of distribution system maintenance activities, including:  monitoring the substations and performing routine maintenance;  performing preventative maintenance on the system;  monitoring the system’s status from the UCC using SCADA;  maintaining the SCADA system;  investigating outages and other customer complaints and performing emergency repairs;  clearing vegetation near overhead power lines; and  testing and replacing meters to ensure accurate sales metering. Administration: Accounting, purchasing, legal, and other administrative functions provided by the City’s General Fund staff, as well as shared communications services, Utilities Department administrative overhead and billing system maintenance costs. Demand Side Management: Includes the cost of administering energy efficiency programs and the direct cost of rebates paid. Includes solar rebates. Engineering (Operating): The Electric Utility’s engineers focus primarily on the CIP, but a small portion of their time is spent assisting with distribution system maintenance. APPENDIX F : SAMPLES OF RECENT ELECTRIC UTILITY OUTREACH COMMUNICATI ONS GAS UTILITY FINANCIA L PLAN FY 2015 TO FY 2021 TABLE OF CONTENTS Definitions and Abbreviations ............................................................................................................2 Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................3 Current State of the Utility .................................................................................................................4 Section I. Utility Overview ......................................................................................................................... 4 Section II. Current Rates and Competitiveness ......................................................................................... 5 Section III. Rate Design ............................................................................................................................. 6 Section IV. Current Utility Financial Status ............................................................................................... 7 Section V. Status of Reserves .................................................................................................................... 8 Section VI. Debt Service .......................................................................................................................... 10 Looking Back .................................................................................................................................... 10 Section VII. Background .......................................................................................................................... 10 Section VIII. Historical Expenses and Revenues ...................................................................................... 11 Looking Forward .............................................................................................................................. 13 Section IX. Seven Year Financial Forecast ............................................................................................... 13 1. Overview ....................................................................................................................................... 13 2. Commodity Supply Costs .............................................................................................................. 13 3. Operations .................................................................................................................................... 14 4. Capital Improvement Program (CIP) ............................................................................................ 15 5. General Fund Equity Transfer ....................................................................................................... 16 Section X. Revenue Requirement and Revenue Sources ......................................................................... 16 Section XI. Projected Consumption ......................................................................................................... 18 Section XII. Long-term Outlook ............................................................................................................... 18 Section XIII. Risk Assessment .................................................................................................................. 19 Section XIV. Communications Plan ......................................................................................................... 20 Appendices ...................................................................................................................................... 21 Appendix A: Gas Utility Financial Forecast Detail ................................................................................... 22 Appendix B: Gas Utility Capital Improvement Program (CIP) Detail ....................................................... 23 Appendix C: Gas Utility Reserves Management Practices ....................................................................... 25 Appendix D: Gas Utility Debt Service Details ........................................................................................... 28 Appendix E: Description of Gas Utility Cost Categories ........................................................................... 30 Appendix F: Gas Utility Communications Samples .................................................................................. 31 GAS UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 2 | P a g e DEFINITIONS AND ABBR EVIATIONS ABS: Acrylonitirile butydene styrene, a plastic gas main material CARB: California Air Resources Board CIP: Capital Improvement Program CPAU: City of Palo Alto Utilities Department CPUC: California Public Utilities Commission Crossbore: A crossbore exists when one utility line has been drilled or “bored” through a portion of another line. Gas crossbores can occur in sewer lines as a result of “horizontal boring” construction practices. Distribution: transportation of gas to customers. GMR Program: Gas Main Replacement Program Local Transportation: transportation of gas to Palo Alto across PG&E’s distribution system from PG&E City Gate. Malin: a delivery hub referred to in gas purchase contracts and located in Malin, Oregon, where the northern end of PG&E’s Redwood Transmission Pipeline is located. MMBtu: Millions of British thermal units, a unit of gas measurement equal to ten therms. Commonly used for high volume gas measurement. Wholesale purchases of gas from suppliers are typically measured in MMBtu. PE or HDPE: Polyethylene, a gas main material (more specifically, High-Density Polyethylene) PG&E: Pacific Gas and Electric PG&E City Gate, or City Gate: a delivery hub referred to in gas purchase contracts. Any gas delivered to PG&E’s distribution system (such as gas delivered at the southern end of PG&E’s Redwood Transmission Pipeline) is said to have been delivered at PG&E City Gate. PVC: Polyvinyl chloride, a plastic gas main material Therms: The standard unit of measurement for natural gas sales to customers, equal to 100,000 British thermal units. Measures the heating value of the gas, rather than its volume. Transmission: transportation of gas between major gas delivery hubs via a gas transmission pipeline, such as PG&E’s Redwood pipeline. GAS UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 3 | P a g e EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This document presents a financial plan for the City of Palo Alto’s Gas Utility for the next seven years. The plan uses a seven year forecast period to show the complete drawdown of the Rate Stabilization Reserve by FY 2021. The plan provides revenues to cover the costs of operating the utility safely over that time while adequately investing for the future. It also addresses the financial risks facing the utility over the short term and long term, and includes measures to mitigate and manage those risks. Over the next seven fiscal years staff projects that the Gas Utility will see non -commodity costs rising at roughly 3% per year, though this will be partially offset by a reduction in costs associated with the projected completion of the crossbore inspection program in FY 2017. To match revenues to rising costs, the financial plan includes the rate trajectory shown in Table 1. This trajectory includes no planned rate increase for FY 2015 to FY 2017. This will allow the utility to draw down accumulated reserves, which result from the fact that new gas main replacement projects were not added in FY 2014 and FY 2015 in order to complete an unusually large project, replacing the last of the ABS plastic mains in Palo Alto. For FY 2018 to FY 2021, rates are projected to increase 3 to 4% each year. This is equivalent to $1.13 to $1.60 per month for the median residential customer’s monthly gas bill. Table 1: Projected Gas Rate Trajectory for FY 2015 to FY 2021 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 0% 0% 0% 3% 3% 4% 3% This Financial Plan includes a set of Gas Utility Reserves Management Practices. These set forth the reserves held by the Gas Utility, their purposes, and guidelines for managing them. The Reserves Management Practices make the following changes to the utility’s existing reserves structure: 1. The addition of an Operations Reserve, a Capital Improvement Program (CIP) Reserve, and an Unassigned Reserve; 2. The closure of the Supply Rate Stabilization Reserve and the transfer of all funds into the Operations Reserve; and 3. The closure of the Emergency Plant Replacement Reserve and the transfer of all funds into the new Operations Reserve. This plan includes $8.5 million to fund the new Operations Reserve, which will come from the Emergency Plant Replacement and Rate Stabilization reserves. GAS UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 4 | P a g e CURRENT STATE OF THE UTILITY SECTION I. UTILITY OVERVIEW The City of Palo Alto’s Gas Utility, operated by the City of Palo Alto Utilities Department (CPAU) provides natural gas service to the residents, businesses, and other gas customers in Palo Alto. Over 25,600 customers are connected to the natural gas system, approximately 23,900 (93%) of which are residential and 1700 (7%) of which are non-residential. Residential customers consume about 14 million therms of gas per year, 46% of the gas sold, while non-residential customers consume 54% (about 16.4 million therms). Residential customers use gas primarily for space heating (42% of gas consumed) and water heating (48%), with the remainder consumed for other purposes such as cooking, laundry, and heating pools and spas. Non- residential customers use gas for space and water heating (73% of gas consumed), cooking (20%), and industrial processes (6%).1 The Gas Utility receives gas at the four receiving stations within Palo Alto where CPAU’s distribution system connects with Pacific Gas and Electric’s (PG&E’s) system. These receiving stations are jointly operated by CPAU and PG&E. CPAU purchases gas from a variety of natural gas marketers, with PG&E providing only local transportation service (transportation from the PG&E City Gate gas delivery hub across PG&E’s distribution system to Palo Alto). CPAU also has transmission rights on PG&E’s transmission pipeline from Malin, Oregon to PG&E City Gate, allowing it to purchase lower priced gas at that location throughout the year. CPAU does not produce or store any natural gas, and purchases gas in the monthly and daily spot markets. The cost of the purchased gas is passed through directly to customers through a rate adjuster that varies monthly with market prices. The cost of purchased gas and PG&E local transportation service accounts for roughly one third of the utility’s expenditures. To deliver gas from the receiving stations to its customers, the utility owns 210 miles of gas mains (which transport the gas to various parts of the city) and 25,460 gas services (which connect the gas mains to the customers’ gas lines). These mains and services, along with their associated valves, regulators, and meters, represent the vast majority of the infrastructure used to deliver gas in Palo Alto. CPAU has an ongoing CIP to repair and replace it over time. CIP expense accounts for 20% of the utility’s expenditures. In addition to the CIP, the Gas Utility performs a variety of maintenance activities related to the system, such as monitoring the system for leaks, testing and replacing meters, monitoring the condition of steel pipe, and building and replacing gas services for buildings being built or redeveloped throughout the city. The utility also shares the costs of other system-wide operational activities (such as customer service, billing, meter reading, supply planning, energy efficiency, equipment maintenance, and street restoration) with the City’s other utilities. These maintenance and operations expenses, as well as associated administration, debt service, rent, and other costs, make up another 30% of the utility’s expenses. In addition to these ongoing 1 Source: Statewide Commercial End Use Study, California Energy Commission report, 2006. Statistics shown are for end users in PG&E Climate Zone 4, the Peninsula, where Palo Alto is located. GAS UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 5 | P a g e activities, CPAU has been implementing a program to find and replace crossbores over the last several years. Since its inception the Gas Utility has provided an annual return to the City’s General Fund . This is calculated based on the net book value of the utility’s capital assets. This equity transfer to the General Fund accounts for 15% of the utility’s expenses. SECTION II. CURRENT RATES AND CO MPETITIVENESS On July 1, 2012 CPAU restructured its rates to allow the commodity component to vary monthly to match changes in gas market prices. In addition, monthly service charges were increased to recover the cost providing gas service to customers. Subsequently, on January 1, 2013, CPAU changed the local transportation component of its rate to reflect changes to PG&E’s local transportation rates. Table 2, below, summarizes the current rates for all customer classes. Table 2: Current Gas Rates Rate Component Units G-1 (Residential) G-2 (Small Commercial) G-3 (Large Commercial) Last Changed Service Charge $/month 9.88 74.86 361.18 7/1/2012 Distribution (Tier 1) $/therm 0.3883 0.5638 0.5562 7/1/2012 Distribution (Tier 2) $/therm 0.9037 N/A N/A 7/1/2012 Local transportation $/therm 0.0435 0.0435 0.0435 1/1/2013 Administrative $/therm 0.0074 0.0074 0.0074 7/1/2012 Commodity $/therm 0.5339 (Feb. 2014) 0.5339 (Feb. 2014) 0.5339 (Feb. 2014) (varies monthly)2 Tier 1 amount Winter Therms/day 2 N/A N/A 7/1/2012 Summer Therms/day 0.667 N/A N/A 7/1/2012 Table 3 presents the winter and summer residential bills for Palo Alto and PG&E for several usage levels. The annual gas bill for the median residential customer for calendar year 2013 was $450.37, 9% higher than the annual bill for a PG&E customer with the same consumption. The bill calculations for PG&E customers are based on PG&E Climate Zone X, which includes most surrounding comparison communities. Because both utilities’ rates vary from month to month, only a single sample month is shown for each season. 2 For historic commodity rates see the City’s website: http://www.cityofpaloalto.org/gov/depts/utl/residents/rates.asp GAS UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 6 | P a g e Table 3: Residential Monthly Natural Gas Bill Comparison ($/month) Season Usage (therms) Palo Alto PG&E Zone X % Difference Winter (Jan 2014) 30 37.40 33.86 10% (Median) 54 59.42 60.96 -3% 80 93.58 96.47 -3% 150 193.88 197.73 -2% Summer (Jul 2013) 10 18.20 10.66 71% (Median) 18 24.85 19.29 29% 30 39.99 35.88 11% 45 60.20 56.63 6% Table 4, below, shows the annual average monthly gas bill for commercial customers for various usage levels for the same period. Bills for Palo Alto customers at the usage levels shown are 23% to 44% higher than under PG&E’s rates. Table 4: Commercial Monthly Average Gas Bill Comparison (CY 2013, $/month) Usage (therms/mo) Palo Alto PG&E % Difference 500 621 490 27% 5,000 5,539 4,495 23% 10,000 11,004 8,189 34% 50,000 54,626 38,001 44% PG&E currently has two applications under consideration with the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) that, if approved, will narrow the gap between its rates and CPAU’s . The first, its 2014 General Rate Case application, requests rate increases that would increase its residential customers’ bills by 16% on average and its commercial customers’ bills by 8 to 30% depending on usage level and type of service received. Those increases are intended to take effect in 2014, though the case is still underway. The second, its 2015 Gas Transmission and Storage (GT&S) application, requests an increase for residential bills by another 13% and commercial bills by 16 to 20%. The GT&S application would also increase PG&E’s local transportation rates for Palo Alto, but since these are a small part of the Gas Utility’s costs the overall impact on Palo Alto customer bills will be much smaller. In both cases the increases are mainly related to improvements to PG&E’s pipeline safety and maintenance practices. SECTION III. RATE DESIGN The Gas Utility’s current rates were structured based on the methodology from the April 2012 Gas Utility Cost of Service Study completed by Utility Financial Solutions.3 Staff tentatively plans to review this cost of service study in two to three years unless any major changes occur to the utility’s operations or customer base that would necessitate an earlier study. The State’s cap- 3 Staff Report ID#2812, Finance Committee, May 17, 2012 GAS UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 7 | P a g e and-trade program is one factor that could prompt such an update. Starting in 2015 gas utilities will be required to purchase carbon allowances equal to the carbon emissions associated with the gas they deliver. The California Air Resources Board’s (CARB’s) current draft proposal is to allocate some allowances to affected gas utilities, just as it did for electric utilities. Some of these allowances could be used for compliance, but some allowances must be sold in the quarterly allowance auctions. The Gas Utility is required to use revenue from these sales for the benefit of gas ratepayers or return it to them directly. Designing rates to accomplish this could require an update to the cost of service study. Before any such update, staff will review current rates and the scope of the study with the UAC and Council to determine UAC and Council policy priorities. SECTION IV. CURRENT UTILITY FINANCIAL STATUS In FY 2013, gas purchases represented a third of the Gas Utility’s costs, with CIP and Operations together representing another 39%. The remaining costs were for administration, overhead, and other costs (12%), and the General Fund equity transfer (15%), as shown in Figure 2. These expenditures are also displayed by category of expenditure in Figure 1. The utility’s revenue in FY 2013 came almost entirely from gas sales (96%), with the remainder coming from capacity and connection fees (2%), and other sources (2%). For FY 2013 expenses exceeded revenues by $4.7 million, as compared to the $3.4 million planned in the FY 2013 adopted budget (to draw down reserves). This resulted in reserves totaling $31.7 million as of June 30, 2013, $11.3 million of which was in the Rate Stabilization Reserve. Total uses of funds were $39.8 million, which was $1.3 million lower than budgeted. This was mainly a result of savings in gas supply costs. Total sources of funds were $34.3 million, which was $4.9 million lower than budgeted. This was due in part to the fact that the Gas Utility passed the supply cost savings directly on to its customers, but also because gas sales were 5% lower than budgeted. For FY 2014 net revenues are expected to be $4.0 million, $400,000 greater than the $3.6 million projected in the budget. This is due to projected savings of $1.0 million in various operating budgets, offset in part by slightly lower than projected sales revenue. Figure 2: FY 2013 Costs by Activity Gas Purchases, 34% GF Transfer, 15% CIP, 19% Operations, 20% Other, 1% Admin/ Overhead, 11% Figure 1: FY 2013 Costs by Category Gas Purchases, 34% GF Transfer, 15% CIP, 19% Supplies/ Materials / Other, 7% Salaries/ Benefits, 14% Admin/ Overhead, 11% GAS UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 8 | P a g e Table 5: Projected Net Revenue, FY 2014 Gas - Operating Activity All figures in thousands $ (000’s) Adopted Budget FY 2014 Unaudited Actuals Jul 13-Dec 13 Projected Activity Jan 14-Jun 14 Projected FY 2014 Activity Variance to Budget Net Sales * 37,343 14,389 22,358 36,746 (597) Other revenues 1,523 727 753 1,480 (43) Purchase costs (15,171) (6,259) (8,895) (15,154) (17) Other expenses ** (20,097) (9,827) (9,269) (19,095) 1,002 Total 3,598 (970) 4,948 3,978 380 * Includes misc. sales, adjustments, discounts, and bad debt ** Includes reserve transfers, salaries, allocated charges, other misc. expenses and encumbrances SECTION V. STATUS OF RESERVES Table 6, below, shows the projected status of the Gas Utility’s reserves at the end of FY 2014 . Total reserves at year end (June 30, 2014) are projected to be $30.0 million, of which $16.2 million will be in the Rate Stabilization Reserves. This plan includes changes to the structure of the utility’s reserves, as detailed in Appendix C: Gas Utility Reserves Management Practices and in Table 6 below, including: 1. The additions of an Operations Reserve, a Capital Improvement Program (CIP) Reserve, and an Unassigned Reserve; 2. The closure of the Supply Rate Stabilization Reserve and the transfer of all funds into the Operations Reserve; and 3. The closure of the Emergency Plant Replacement Reserve and the transfer of all funds into the new Operations Reserve. The additions of an Operations Reserve, CIP Reserve, and Unassigned Reserve will add transparency and simplify reserves management by providing separate reserves for various functions that are currently all served by the Rate Stabilization Reserve s. The Operations Reserve will be used to manage contingencies and absorb normal year to year cost and revenue variances. The CIP Reserve will hold funds for expenditure on future budgeted CIP projects. The Rate Stabilization Reserve will be used to smooth the transition to higher rates. If the utility accumulates reserves that are not designated for a specific purpose, these will be placed in the Unassigned Reserve until those funds are either designated for a specific purpose or returned to ratepayers. GAS UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 9 | P a g e Table 6: Projected Reserves, 6/30/2014 ($000) Projected Reserve Levels Proposed Reallocation of Reserves Projected After Reallocation Gas Supply Fund Reappropriations + Commitments 0 N/A 0 Supply Rate Stabilization Reserve 5,600 -5,600 (closed) Total 5,600 -5,600 0 Gas Distribution Fund Reappropriations + Commitments 19,363 N/A 19,363 Emergency Plant Replacement 1,000 -1,000 (closed) CIP Reserve (new) 0 0 Rate Stabilization Reserve 10,637 -2,946 $7,691 Operations Reserve (new) +8,546 $8,546 Unassigned Reserve (new) 0 0 Total 30,000 +5,600 35,600 Operations Reserve: Days of Expense 90 days Operations Reserve: Minimum 60 days Operations Reserve: Target 90 days Operations Reserve: Maximum 120 days Creating separate CIP, Rate Stabilization, and Unassigned Reserves allows the utility to set minimum and maximum guidelines for the Operations Reserve and set forth clear actions to be taken when it is over or under those levels. If funds are to be held for a specific purpose (for example, a future CIP project) these can be held in a separate reserve (in this example, the CIP Reserve). Without a separate reserve, those funds would be held in the Operations Reserve and could cause it to exceed its maximum guideline, making it difficult to treat the maximum guideline as a clear limit on the size of the reserve. This proposal also adds transparency, since the public will be able to see the various purposes for which the utility is holding reserves. This plan also involves merging the existing Emergency Plant Replacement Reserve into the Operations Reserve. Currently the Emergency Plant Replacement Reserve holds $1 million, enough to pay the City’s insurance deductible in the event of a loss of utility equi pment due to an insurable loss. Staff believes that even at minimum levels the Operations Reserve has adequate funding to cover the insurance deductible, making the Emergency Plant Replacement Reserve duplicative. The Supply Rate Stabilization Reserve (S-RSR) will also be closed at the end of FY 2014 and the balance (projected to be $5.6 million) transferred to the Operations Reserve. The S-RSR is no longer necessary because the adoption of a pass-through, month-varying commodity rate component has eliminated nearly all gas price risk. As gas market prices change, so does the rate component, passing the changes through to customers almost immediately. What little intra-month price risk remains can be balanced using the Operations Reserve. GAS UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 10 | P a g e To complete the funding of the Operations Reserve, $2.9 million will be transferred from the Distribution Rate Stabilization Reserve (which will now simply be called “the Rate Stabilization Reserve”), retaining $7.7 million in the Rate Stabilization Reserve to be drawn down over future years as rates increase. Combined with the $1 million from the Emergency Plant Replacement Reserve and the funds from the S-RSR, the Operations Reserve’s initial funding will be $8.5 million, the target level set forth in Appendix C: Gas Utility Reserves Management Practices (90 days of commodity and O&M expense). SECTION VI. DEBT SERVICE The Gas Utility’s annual debt service is roughly $800,000 per year. This is related to one bond issuance that will require payments through 2026. This issuance, the 2011 Series A Utility Revenue Refunding Bonds, was a joint issuance between the Gas and Water Utilities refinancing the 2002 Utility Revenue Bonds, Series A, which was issued to finance various capital improvements for both systems. The City is in compliance with all covenants on the bond. Additional detail is provided in Appendix D. LOOKING BACK SECTION VII. BACKGROUND On September 22, 1917, the City of Palo Alto issued a bond to purchase the property of Palo Alto Gas Company and continue it as a municipal enterprise. At the time, the system comprised 21 miles of mains, 1,900 meters, and was valued at $65,500. PG&E supplied the gas, which was synthesized from coal at its Potrero facility. Almost immediately the City faced challenges. Losses were at nearly 25% according to PG&E’s master meter, and PG&E had filed with the Railroad commission (the forerunner to today’s Public Utilities Commission) to increase rates by nearly 72.5%. Despite these initial hurdles, Palo Alto’s system grew tremendously, and by 1924 revenues had exceeded those of the electric utility. Sales were such that the annual reports of the time noted gas usage “appears to be greater than that of any other c ity in the state, showing that gas is a very popular form of fuel in Palo Alto.” Just prior to the acquisition of the neighboring town of Mayfield’s gas system (around today’s California Avenue) in 1929, the miles of main in service and customers connections had doubled. Notable changes to the gas supply itself came in 1930, when PG&E ceased supplying purely manufactured (or coal) gas from its Potrero Hill facility in San Francisco and instead switched to natural gas. In 1935, a supplementary butane injection system (later retired) was purchased from Standard Oil to mitigate large wintertime peaks. Gas sales were at 248,658 million cubic feet (MCF) with 4,849 active services. Early gas mains in Palo Alto were made of steel, but in the 1950s, like many other utilities, CPAU switched to ABS plastic. CPAU switched to PVC plastic in the early 1970s, but over 45 miles of ABS mains had already been installed. A 1990 evaluation of the system found a steadily increasing rate of gas leaks associated with those mains, something that other gas utilities had also been experiencing. To reduce leaks, CPAU accelerated its main replacement program from GAS UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 11 | P a g e 7,000 feet (1.3 miles) of replacements per year to 20,000 feet (3.8 miles) per year. This would enable the utility to replace all of its ABS and its most vulnerable steel and PVC mains with polyethylene (PE) mains over the course of the following 36 years.4 As of 2013 the Gas Utility had replaced over 94 miles of steel, ABS, and PVC mains, which represents 45% of the system. The last ABS main replacement projects are currently underway. This was an example of how local control of its Gas Utility has provided Palo Alto residents with substantial benefits. During the 1990s and 2000s, while CPAU was increasing its main replacement rate to ensure a robust gas distribution system, PG&E was underspending on safety-related infrastructure, according to a recent audit.5 In the 1990s, while grappling with the issues surrounding its distribution system, CPAU was also participating in major changes to the structure of the gas industry in California. Until 1988 CPAU had a formal policy of setting its rates equal to PG &E’s rates and successfully did so with the exception of one year in the mid-1970s. At times this led to inadequate revenue (1974 to 1981) as PG&E, the City’s only gas supplier as well as its competitor, regularly filed requests with the CPUC to increase the wholesale gas supply rates charged to the Gas Utility. In the 1990s, as the CPUC began deregulating the natural gas industry in California, the Gas Utility was to begin purchasing gas from suppliers other than PG&E. In 1997 the CPUC adopted the “Gas Accord,”6 which enabled the Gas Utility (along with other local transportation-only customers) to obtain transmission rights on PG&E’s Redwood transmission pipeline running from Malin, Oregon into California. In 2000 to 2001 the California Energy Crisis occurred, causing major disruptions to the Gas Utility’s supply costs. Wholesale gas prices rose over 500% between January 2000 and January 2001. The Council approved drawing down reserves to provide ratepayer relief, and for two years following the crisis CPAU rates were above PG&E’s as reserves were replenished. In April 2001 the Council approved a hedging practice of buying fixed price gas one to three years into the future. After reaching a low point in October 2001 , prices continued to rise, and as a result the CPAU hedging strategy frequently resulted in a wholesale supply cost advantage compared to PG&E until prices began to decline steeply in 2008. At that point the Gas Utility’s wholesale supply costs became higher than market gas prices due to fixed price contracts entered into prior to 2008. As a result the Gas Utility’s wholesale supply costs were higher than PG&E’s for several years. In July 2012 Council approved a plan to formally cease the hedging strategy and pass wholesale gas costs directly to customers through a rate that varied month by month. The last fixed price gas purchased under the hedging strategy was delivered in October 2013. SECTION VIII. HISTORICAL EXPENSES AND REVENUES Table 7 shows the Gas Utility’s expenses and revenues for the past five years. Total costs for this utility have decreased 13% since 2009, but there were a variety of notable cost increases 4 Staff Report CMR:183:0. Infrastructure Review and Update, March 1, 1990 5 Focused Financial Audit of The Pacific Gas & Electric Company’s Gas Distribution Operations, Overland Consulting , made available through a CPUC Administrative Law Judge’s ruling on A12-11-009/I13-03-007 on 5/31/2013 6 CPUC decision 97-08-055. Since then, the Gas Accord has been amended four times, with the most recent being Gas Accord V, application A.09-09-013 GAS UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 12 | P a g e and decreases that contributed to this net change. Commodity costs decreased by 46% over that time due to decreases in gas market prices, but this was offset by increases in the equity transfer to the General Fund and the cost of distribution fund operations. The FY 2010 through FY 2013 equity transfers were nearly twice as large as the 2009 transfer due to a change in methodology adopted in 2009 and first taking effect in FY 2010. Distribution operations costs7 were nearly 35% higher in 2013 than they were in 2009, but much of this was related to spending on the crossbore program. Excluding the crossbore program, distribution operations costs have increased 4% per year on average since 2009. Sales revenues decreased in FY 2009 due to a rate decrease prompted by declining gas market prices, and again in FY 2013 as the utility switched to a pass-through commodity rate. FY 2013 sales volumes were also lower than normal due to warmer than average weather. Table 7: Gas Utility Historical Expenses 7 Administration, Demand Side Management, Engineering, O&M, and Resource Management categories in Table 8 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1 2 Utilities Retail Sales 47,250 43,244 42,855 41,034 33,759 3 Service Connection & Capacity Fees 462 451 516 592 731 4 Other Revenues & Transfers In 161 1,713 203 103 830 5 Interest plus Gain or Loss on Investment 1,614 1,342 821 1,119 (239) 6 Total Sources of Funds 49,487 46,750 44,396 42,847 35,081 7 8 Purchases of Utilities: 9 Supply Commodity 24,486 21,846 20,732 15,356 12,461 10 Supply Transportation 544 620 706 879 994 11 Total Purchases 25,029 22,466 21,438 16,235 13,455 12 13 Administration (CIP + Operating)2,181 2,494 2,895 3,473 4,273 14 Customer Service 1,168 1,134 1,230 1,270 1,358 15 Demand Side Management 365 428 563 614 630 16 Engineering (Operating)310 266 280 333 340 17 Operations and Maintenance 3,234 3,942 3,297 5,032 4,940 18 Resource Management 672 696 1,039 729 506 19 Debt Service Payments 521 505 488 406 296 20 Rent 205 320 230 230 219 21 Transfers to General Fund 3,135 5,300 5,304 6,006 5,971 22 Other Transfers Out 1,648 407 614 170 207 23 Capital Improvement Programs 7,407 2,389 8,325 7,821 7,562 24 Total Uses of Funds 45,875 40,348 45,704 42,320 39,756 25 26 Into/ (Out of) Reserves 3,612 6,402 (1,308)528 (4,675) Fiscal Year GAS UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 13 | P a g e LOOKING FORWARD SECTION IX. SEVEN YEAR FINANCIAL FOREC AST 1. OVERVIEW Staff has prepared a forecast of costs and revenues through FY 2021. As shown in Table 8 (and Appendix A: Gas Utility Financial Forecast Detail), total costs for the Gas Utility are projected to be at or below FY 2013 levels through FY 2019. Operations costs are projected to increase at 3% per year, but this will be offset by a reduction in costs associated with the projected completion of the crossbore program by the end of FY 2017. In addition, future ongoing CIP spending is expected to be lower than it was in FY 2013, a year that saw the commencement of an unusually large gas main replacement project. The combination of these factors, as well as the projected accumulation of reserves due to lower CIP budgets in FY 2015 and FY 2016, mean that CPAU will not need to raise non-commodity rates until FY 2018. FY 2018 through FY 2021 will see 3% to 4% non-commodity rate increases as revenues are brought in line with expenses. Table 8: Seven Year Gas Financial Forecast Summary *The rate change line shows the combined effect of commodity and non-commodity rate changes for FY 2013. For current and future years, only non-commodity rate changes are shown. Commodity rates will vary monthly with market prices. 2. COMMODITY SUPPLY COS TS The Gas Utility purchases much of its gas for delivery at Malin, which is almost always cheaper than PG&E City Gate, even including the costs of transmission from Malin to City Gate. Gas is purchased on a month-ahead and day-ahead basis in the spot market. Commodity costs are Actual Adopted Proj.Proj.Proj.Proj.Proj.Proj.Proj.Proj. 2013 2014 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 1 RATE CHANGE (%)*-13%0%0%0%0%0%3%3%4%3% 2 SALES IN THOUSAND THERMS 28,901 30,011 28,771 28,881 28,939 28,995 29,060 29,110 29,160 29,200 3 4 Utilities Retail Sales 33,759 37,343 36,746 34,942 35,150 34,874 36,197 37,864 39,718 41,164 5 Service Connection & Capacity Fees 731 579 580 602 640 662 686 706 706 706 6 Other Revenues & Transfers In 830 129 112 262 262 262 262 412 412 412 7 Interest plus Gain or Loss on Investment (239)815 693 226 324 321 315 282 261 244 8 Total Sources of Funds 35,081 38,865 38,131 36,032 36,376 36,119 37,460 39,264 41,096 42,526 9 10 Purchases of Utilities: 11 Supply Commodity 12,461 13,793 13,724 12,484 12,504 12,165 12,236 12,603 12,981 13,169 12 Supply Transportation 994 1,377 1,429 1,248 1,522 1,571 1,622 1,673 1,726 1,780 13 Total Purchases 13,455 15,170 15,153 13,731 14,026 13,736 13,858 14,276 14,708 14,950 14 15 Administration (CIP + Operating)4,273 3,352 3,891 4,036 4,156 4,290 4,428 4,571 4,719 4,871 16 Customer Service 1,358 1,383 1,409 1,524 1,568 1,632 1,699 1,769 1,842 1,918 17 Demand Side Management 630 1,318 610 628 647 667 687 708 730 752 18 Engineering (Operating)340 366 308 319 328 340 353 367 381 396 19 Operations and Maintenance 4,940 4,031 5,060 5,142 5,292 5,491 4,698 4,883 5,076 5,276 20 Resource Management 506 728 522 758 780 809 840 871 904 938 21 Debt Service Payments 296 801 802 803 804 803 802 801 801 803 22 Rent 219 225 225 232 239 246 253 261 269 277 23 Transfers to General Fund 5,971 5,811 5,786 5,650 5,802 6,102 6,342 6,644 6,968 7,306 24 Other Transfers Out 207 472 206 213 219 225 232 239 246 254 25 Capital Improvement Programs 7,562 1,595 240 1,816 5,224 4,714 4,822 4,942 4,942 4,942 26 Total Uses of Funds 39,756 35,253 34,212 34,853 39,086 39,057 39,015 40,332 41,584 42,682 27 28 Into/ (Out of) Reserves (4,675)3,612 3,919 1,179 (2,710)(2,937)(1,554)(1,068)(488)(156) Fiscal Year GAS UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 14 | P a g e expected to stay steady or decline slightly over the next several years. Figure 2, below, shows the projected gas prices used to generate this forecast. Projections for transmission costs associated with transporting gas over PG&E’s Redwood transmission pipeline are based on rates adopted in the most recent update to the Gas Accord. Local transportation costs decrease on January 1, 2015 due to the expiration of a temporary adder to PG&E’s local transportation rate,8 but in December 2014 PG&E applied to the CPUC to more than double local transportation costs. In the past the CPUC has only partially approved such applications, so for future years, staff assumes a one-time 50% increase in local transportation costs in FY 2016, escalating at 3% per year in subsequent years. Figure 2: Wholesale Gas Price Projections 3. OPERATIONS Operations costs include the Customer Service, Demand Side Management, Operations and Maintenance, Engineering, Resource Management, and Administration categories in Table 8, above. Debt service, rent, and transfers are also included in Operations costs (excluding the General Fund equity transfer). Appendix E: Description of Gas Utility Cost Categories includes detailed descriptions of the activities associated with these cost categories. Operations costs are projected to increase by 3% per year. Salary and benefits, inflation, and other assumptions match those used in the City’s long-range financial forecast. Operations costs for FY 2015 to FY 2017 include funding for the crossbore program. In the 1970s CPAU, like many other utilities, adopted horizontal drilling as an alternative to trenching when installing new gas services. This created the possibility of crossbores, which happen when a gas service is bored through a sewer lateral. Though crossbores are very rare, they can create a dangerous situation when a contractor attempts to clear a blocked sewer line, because 8 California Public Utilities Commission Advice Letter 3430-G, effective January 1, 2014. Also see CPUC Decision 12- 12-30 regarding the Pipeline Safety Enhancement Plan Adder. $0.00 $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 $4.50 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 City Gate Malin GAS UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 15 | P a g e if the crossbored gas service is damaged during the line clearing it can result in a gas leak. CPAU has been inspecting new gas services since 2001, and in 2011 began video inspections of the sewer laterals at the location of horizontally-drilled gas services installed before 2001. This inspection program has cost roughly $1 million per year since FY 2012, and will likely require additional funding in future years to complete. 4. CAPITAL IMP ROVEMENT PROGRAM (CIP) The Gas Utility’s CIP program consists of the following programs and budgets:  The Gas Main Replacement Program, under which the Gas Utility replaces aging gas mains  Customer Connections, which covers the cost when the Gas Utility installs new services or upgrades existing services at a customer’s request in response to development or redevelopment. The Gas Utility charges a fee to these customers to cover the cost of these projects.  Ongoing Projects, which covers the cost of routine meter, regulator, and service replacement, minor projects to improve reliability or increase capacity, and other general improvements.  Tools and Equipment, which covers the cost of capitalized equipment, such as directional boring equipment.  One-time Projects, which represents occasional large projects that do not fall into any other category. Table 9 shows the current status of these project categories and future budgeted spending. Table 9: Budgeted Gas CIP Spending The Gas Main Replacement (GMR) Program is in the process of reaching a major milestone, the replacement of the last gas mains made from ABS plastic. The program to replace ABS and other low-performing materials in the system started in the 1990s (see Section VII. Background for more detail). CPAU has temporarily slowed down its new CIP appropriations in this category in order to finish the last major ABS main replacement project and to catch up on a backlog of projects that has accumulated due to staffing issues. A lower rate of ongoing spending on main replacement is projected after this project is complete, approximately three miles of main each year, or 1.5% of the system. With the replacement of all ABS mains with PE plastic, the material at high risk for failure is removed leaving only PVC plastic, steel (wrapped, with cathodic protection), and PE mains. The next focus of the GMR program will be PVC mains. CPAU will perform a study in 2014 to determine which areas of the system to prioritize. Project Category Current Budget* Spending, Curr. Yr Remain. Budget Committed FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 One Time Projects 42 - 42 - 150 - - - - Gas Main Replacement 15,377 (1,429) 13,948 11,623 603 4,161 3,650 3,785 3,878 Tools And Equipment 589 (35) 554 318 100 100 100 100 100 Ongoing Projects 1,117 (157) 960 236 737 763 785 809 833 Customer Connections 820 (370) 449 11 752 790 812 836 861 TOTAL 17,944 (1,991) 15,953 12,188 2,341 5,813 5,347 5,530 5,673 *Includes unspent funds from previous years carried forward or reappropriated into the current fiscal year GAS UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 16 | P a g e Ongoing Projects, Tools and Equipment, and Customer Connections are projected to cost approximately $1.2 million in FY 2015 and increase by 3% per year through the end of the forecast period. In practice, these projects can fluctuate dramatically depending on system conditions and the pace of development and redevelopment in the city. It is worth noting that the Customer Connections program is paid for through fee revenue, so when costs go up, so does fee revenue. Aside from customer connections and some transfers from other funds, the CIP plan for FY 2015 to FY 2019 is funded by utility rates. The details of the plan are shown in Appendix B: Gas Utility Capital Improvement Program (CIP) Detail. 5. G E NERAL F UND EQUITY TR ANSFER The City calculates the equity transfer from its Gas Utility based on a rate of return on the net book value of the utility’s capital assets9. Council adopted this methodology in 2009 and it was first used for FY 2010. Based on forecasted rates of capital investment and depreciation, the equity transfer is projected to increase by 3% to 5% per year over the forecast period. SECTION X. REVENUE REQUIREMENT AND REVENUE SOURCES The Gas Fund’s costs and revenues from FY 2013 through FY 2021 are shown in Figure 3 below. Only distribution rate changes are shown. Revenues will be sufficient to cover costs FY 2014 and FY 2015, but the utility will draw down reserves in the following two fiscal years. From FY 2018 to FY 2021 rates will need to increase 3% to 4% per year to match revenues to costs. Each of the projected FY 2018 to FY 2021 rate increases will increase the median residential monthly gas bill by $1.13 to $1.60 per month. 9 For more detail, see City Manager’s Report 260:09, Finance Committee, May 26, 2009. GAS UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 17 | P a g e Figure 3: Gas Utility Revenue and Cost Projections This rate trajectory draws the Rate Stabilization Reserve down to zero by FY 2021, as shown in Figure 4. Figure 4 also includes the proposed reallocations of reserves described in Section V. Status of Reserves. Figure 4: Gas Utility Revenue and Cost Projections $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 $50 2013 2014 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Act.Adopt.Proj.Projected $(M i l l i o n s ) Purchases CIP Operations GF Transfers Debt Service Revenue 0%0%0%0%3%3%0% 4%3% Projected FY 2014 year-end reserves under existing reserves structure Proposed reallocation (see Section V. Status of Reserves) GAS UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 18 | P a g e SECTION XI. PROJECTED CONSUMPTIO N Gas usage in Palo Alto is volatile, varying with both the economic and weather conditions. After a significant drop in usage from 40.7 million therms in FY 1999 to 31.5 million therms in FY 2004, gas usage stabilized somewhat, but continued with its general downward trend, decreasing by 3.2% in total during the next five years as a result of continued investments in energy efficiency (EE), reaching 30.5 million therms in FY 2009. Gas consumption is projected to stay stable over the forecast period, with growth being offset by gas efficiency savings . Figure 5 presents the historical gas consumption levels (with and without the gas EE programs) from FY 2004 through FY 2012 and projections for FY 2014 through FY 2021. Figure 5: Historic and Projected Gas Consumption SECTION XII. LONG -TERM OUTLOOK In the longer term (5 to 35 years) it is very difficult to predict the Gas Utility’s commodity costs. A variety of long-term trends could affect commodity costs either positively or negatively. Continuing improvement in gas extraction technology, such as fracking, could continue to 20.0 22.0 24.0 26.0 28.0 30.0 32.0 34.0 FY 2 0 0 4 FY 2 0 0 5 FY 2 0 0 6 FY 2 0 0 7 FY 2 0 0 8 FY 2 0 0 9 FY 2 0 1 0 FY 2 0 1 1 FY 2 0 1 2 FY 2 0 1 3 FY 2 0 1 4 FY 2 0 1 5 FY 2 0 1 6 FY 2 0 1 7 FY 2 0 1 8 FY 2 0 1 9 FY 2 0 2 0 FY 2 0 2 1 Th e r m s M i l l i o n s Gas Sales w/o EE Gas Sales Actual Forecast GAS UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 19 | P a g e create generous supplies of gas, but these technologies are also under greater scrutiny with respect to their environmental impacts. On the demand side, a continued shift from coal to natural gas for electricity generation or an increase in manufacturing in the U.S. might drive up natural gas prices, but other factors might drive gas demand lower. It is also difficult to predict the magnitude of the additional cost impacts associated with cap and trade over the long term. In the face of this uncertainty, CPAU is able to protect the financial position of the Gas Utility by continuing its current strategy of passing these costs directly to its customers via month-varying rate adjustment mechanisms. As discussed in Section IX. Seven Year Financial Forecast, the future CIP investment needs for the Gas Utility may be lower than in the past. The Gas Utility has replaced all of its ABS gas mains and its most problematic steel and PVC mains as well. The PE pipe that is replacing it is expected to have at least a fifty year lifetime, and there is growing evidence that it may last much longer than that. This would result in lower CIP investment over the long term. CPAU is performing a study in 2014 to develop its future main replacements priorities and strategy. Long term state or local climate goals could also have a major impact on the Gas Utility. Assembly Bill 32 (AB32) set a goal of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to 1990 levels by 2020 and then maintaining those reductions. The City has similar goals in its December 2007 Climate Protection Plan, in which it set a goal of lowering emissions to 15% below 2005 levels by 2020. As a community Palo Alto achieved these goals in 2012 even with continued use of natural gas for heating, cooking, and industrial processes. If stricter goals are enacted at the state or local level, however, it could lead to stranded investment and higher rates as the costs of the distribution system are recovered over a lower sales base . One example of a stricter standard is the one the Governor has stated: reducing GHG emissions to 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050.10 This goal, or less ambitious interim goals, would require legislation to implement, but it is instructional that in the recent discussion draft of its scoping plan update CARB says that to meet them, natural gas use would have to be “mostly phased out.”11 As stewards of the Gas Utility, the City should continue to stay aware of developments in state climate planning, participate as a stakeholder, and consider these types of impacts and ways to mitigate them when developing its own sustainability goals . SECTION XIII. RISK ASSESSMENT Staff performs an annual assessment of financial risks for the Gas Utility due to: 1. the maximum observed one-year distribution revenue variance over the past five years; and 2. an increase of 10% of planned system improvement CIP expenditures for the budget year. Commodity price risk is not included in the risk assessment because these costs are passed directly to customers each month. Table 10 summarizes the risk assessment calculation for the Gas Utility. The Operations Reserve is projected to be adequate to manage these levels of risk over the entire forecast period. 10 Executive Orders S-3-05 and B-16-2012. 11 Climate Change Scoping Plan, First Update, Discussion Draft for Public Review and Comment, California Air Resources Board, October 2013, pg 88. GAS UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 20 | P a g e Table 10: Gas Utility Risk Assessment ($000) FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 Total Revenue 20,870 20,910 20,923 22,141 23,373 24,783 25,975 Max. Historical Revenue Variance 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% Budget-to-Actual Risk 1,044 1,046 1,046 1,107 1,169 1,239 1,299 System Rehabilitation CIP Budget 1,816 5,224 4,714 4,822 4,942 4,942 4,942 CIP Contingency @10% 182 522 471 482 494 494 494 Total Risk Assessment Value 1,226 1,568 1,517 1,589 1,663 1,733 1,793 Projected Operations Reserve Level 8,380 8,465 8,588 8,556 8,331 8,761 9,092 SECTION XIV. COMMUNICATIONS PLAN The FY2015 Gas Utility communications strategy covers four primary areas: rates, efficiency, operations/infrastructure and safety. Since CPAU has moved to market pricing for commodity rates, and because there are no projected distribution rate changes over this for ecast period, there is no need for formal “rate change” communications at this time, but website and community education about rates is ongoing. Changes to the commodity rates are posted monthly on the City’s website. Gas use efficiency incentives are promoted year-round, but most heavily during winter months to impact heating activities; promotional activity includes bill inserts, website pages, email blasts, Home Energy Reports and the use of social media. To keep customers apprised of the status and accomplishments of capital improvement projects, a network of project web pages are maintained; traffic is driven to the website via ads in publications, newspaper inserts, social media and email blasts. Safety topics are emphasized year-round and, while print materials and website pages still feature prominently, CPAU is turning the outreach emphasis to direct mail, newspaper inserts, social media including video, cable TV, community safety/emergency preparation meetings and updates to neighborhood groups. Stepping up efforts to promote gas safety education, staff focused on youth, obscured meters and anyone who digs. For younger “customers-to-be” CPAU created a Home Safety Detective campaign that included special tool kits to help them identify home safet y problems. Meter access awareness was raised via materials featuring photos of the unbelievable ways people obstruct access to their meters, including using them as bike racks and building storage sheds around them. Residents of all ages, as well as construction companies etc. were targeted by the pirate-themed “Call 811 Before you Dig” campaign which emphasized the dangers of doing any kind of serious excavation without having underground utilities marked first. GAS UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 21 | P a g e APPENDICES Appendix A: Gas Utility Financial Forecast Detail Appendix B: Gas Utility Capital Improvement Program (CIP) Detail Appendix C: Gas Utility Reserves Management Practices Appendix D: Gas Utility Debt Service Details Appendix E: Description of Gas Utility Cost Categories Appendix F: Gas Utility Communications Samples GAS UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 22 | P a g e APPENDIX A : GAS UTILITY FINANCIAL FORECAST DETAIL Actual Adopted Proj.Proj.Proj.Proj.Proj.Proj.Proj.Proj. 2013 2014 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 1 RATE CHANGE (%)*-13%0%0%0%0%0%3%3%4%3% 2 SALES IN THOUSAND THERMS 28,901 30,011 28,771 28,881 28,939 28,995 29,060 29,110 29,160 29,200 3 4 Utilities Retail Sales 33,759 37,343 36,746 34,942 35,150 34,874 36,197 37,864 39,718 41,164 5 Service Connection & Capacity Fees 731 579 580 602 640 662 686 706 706 706 6 Other Revenues & Transfers In 830 129 112 262 262 262 262 412 412 412 7 Interest plus Gain or Loss on Investment (239)815 693 226 324 321 315 282 261 244 8 Total Sources of Funds 35,081 38,865 38,131 36,032 36,376 36,119 37,460 39,264 41,096 42,526 9 10 Purchases of Utilities: 11 Supply Commodity 12,461 13,793 13,724 12,484 12,504 12,165 12,236 12,603 12,981 13,169 12 Supply Transportation 994 1,377 1,429 1,248 1,522 1,571 1,622 1,673 1,726 1,780 13 Total Purchases 13,455 15,170 15,153 13,731 14,026 13,736 13,858 14,276 14,708 14,950 14 15 Administration (CIP + Operating)4,273 3,352 3,891 4,036 4,156 4,290 4,428 4,571 4,719 4,871 16 Customer Service 1,358 1,383 1,409 1,524 1,568 1,632 1,699 1,769 1,842 1,918 17 Demand Side Management 630 1,318 610 628 647 667 687 708 730 752 18 Engineering (Operating)340 366 308 319 328 340 353 367 381 396 19 Operations and Maintenance 4,940 4,031 5,060 5,142 5,292 5,491 4,698 4,883 5,076 5,276 20 Resource Management 506 728 522 758 780 809 840 871 904 938 21 Debt Service Payments 296 801 802 803 804 803 802 801 801 803 22 Rent 219 225 225 232 239 246 253 261 269 277 23 Transfers to General Fund 5,971 5,811 5,786 5,650 5,802 6,102 6,342 6,644 6,968 7,306 24 Other Transfers Out 207 472 206 213 219 225 232 239 246 254 25 Capital Improvement Programs 7,562 1,595 240 1,816 5,224 4,714 4,822 4,942 4,942 4,942 26 Total Uses of Funds 39,756 35,253 34,212 34,853 39,086 39,057 39,015 40,332 41,584 42,682 27 28 Into/ (Out of) Reserves (4,675)3,612 3,919 1,179 (2,710)(2,937)(1,554)(1,068)(488)(156) 29 30 Reappropriations + Commitments 19,363 19,363 19,363 19,363 19,363 19,363 19,363 19,363 19,363 19,363 31 Plant Replacement 1,000 1,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 32 CIP Reserve 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 33 Rate Stabilization 11,318 14,916 7,691 9,036 6,379 3,508 1,980 587 0 0 34 Operations Reserve 0 0 8,546 8,380 8,591 8,718 8,690 8,994 9,133 9,054 35 Unassigned 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 36 Total Reserves 31,681 35,279 35,600 36,779 34,332 31,589 30,033 28,945 28,496 28,417 37 38 Short Term Risk Assessment Value 39 40 Operations Reserve Guidelines 41 Min (60 Days Commodity + O&M)5,697 5,587 5,727 5,812 5,793 5,996 6,209 6,396 42 Target (60 Days Commodity + O&M)8,546 8,380 8,591 8,718 8,690 8,994 9,313 9,594 43 Max (60 Days Commodity + O&M)11,395 11,174 11,454 11,624 11,586 11,993 12,417 12,792 44 Fiscal Year GAS UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 23 | P a g e APPENDIX B : GAS UTILITY CAPITAL IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM (CIP) DETAIL Project #Project Name Reappropriated / Carried Forward from Previous Years Current Year Funding Budget Amendments Spending, Current Year Remaining in CIP Reserve Fund Commitments FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 ONE TIME PROJECTS GS-09000 Gas Station 1 Rebuild 6,630 - - - 6,630 - - - - - - GS-08000 Gas Station 2 Rebuild 10,023 - - - 10,023 - - - - - - GS-10000 Gas Station 3 Rebuild 8,489 - - - 8,489 - - - - - - GS-11001 Gas Station 4 Rebuild 16,898 - - - 16,898 - - - - - - GS-13003 COBUG emissions equipment 315,000 - (315,000) - - - - - - - - GS-15001 Security at Receiving Stations - - - - - - 150,000 - - - - Subtotal, One-time Projects 357,040 - (315,000) - 42,040 - 150,000 - - - - GAS MAIN REPLACEMENT (GMR) PROGRAM GS-07002 GMR - Project 17 52 - - - 52 - - - - - - GS-08011 GMR - Project 18 250,254 - 18,445 (264,026) 4,673 - - - - - - GS-09002 GMR - Project 19 2,717,475 - - 800,073 3,517,548 2,051,126 - - - - - GS-10001 GMR - Project 20 6,519,842 - - (287,812) 6,232,030 6,032,679 - - - - - GS-11000 GMR - Project 21 5,870,532 - - (1,677,169) 4,193,363 3,539,566 - - - - - GS-12001 GMR - Project 22 - - - - - - 602,575 3,540,000 - - - GS-13001 GMR - Project 23 - - - - - - - 620,650 3,010,000 - - GS-14003 GMR - Project 24 - - - - - - - - 640,000 3,100,000 - GS-15000 GMR - Project 25 - - - - - - - - - 685,000 3,200,000 GS-16000 GMR - Project 26 - - - - - - - - - - 678,200 Subtotal, Gas Main Replacement Program 15,358,156 - 18,445 (1,428,935) 13,947,666 11,623,371 602,575 4,160,650 3,650,000 3,785,000 3,878,200 TOOLS AND EQUIPMENT GS-13002 General Shop Equipment/Tools 50,000 - - - 50,000 - 100,000 100,000 100,000 100,000 100,000 GS-01019 Global Positioning System 82,448 - - - 82,448 2,810 - - - - - GS-02013 Directional Boring Machine 520,764 - (295,000) - 225,764 221,228 - - - - - GS-03007 Directional Boring Equipment 199,252 - (155,000) (25,002) 19,250 18,948 - - - - - GS-03008 Polyethylene Fusion Equip.36,397 - - (8,582) 27,815 22 - - - - - GS-14004 Gas Distribution System Model - 150,000 - (1,392) 148,608 75,000 - - - - - Subtotal, Tools and Equipment 888,861 150,000 (450,000) (34,976) 553,885 318,008 100,000 100,000 100,000 100,000 100,000 GAS UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 24 | P a g e Project #Project Name Reappropriated / Carried Forward from Previous Years Current Year Funding Budget Amendments Spending, Current Year Remaining in CIP Reserve Fund Commitments FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 ONGOING PROJECTS GS-11002 Gas System Improvements 220,760 212,000 - (114,552) 318,208 235,607 218,600 225,158 231,913 238,870 246,036 GS-03009 System Ext. - Unreimbursed 265,061 178,000 (200,000) (40,137) 202,924 - 183,500 192,675 198,500 204,455 210,590 GS-80019 Gas Meters and Regulators 366,015 325,000 (250,000) (1,959) 439,056 - 334,650 344,690 355,030 365,681 376,652 Subtotal, Ongoing Projects 851,836 715,000 (450,000) (156,648) 960,188 235,607 736,750 762,523 785,443 809,006 833,278 CUSTOMER CONNECTIONS (FEE FUNDED) GS-80017 Gas System Extensions 89,552 730,000 - (370,054) 449,498 10,946 752,000 789,600 812,000 836,360 861,450 Subtotal, Customer Connections 89,552 730,000 - (370,054) 449,498 10,946 752,000 789,600 812,000 836,360 861,450 GRAND TOTAL 17,545,445 1,595,000 (1,196,555) (1,990,613) 15,953,277 12,187,932 2,341,325 5,812,773 5,347,443 5,530,366 5,672,928 Funding Sources Connection Fees 580,000 - 602,000 639,600 662,000 686,360 861,450 Utility Rates 893,200 (1,196,555) 1,438,305 4,640,442 4,870,635 4,007,000 4,007,000 CIP-RELATED RESERVES DETAIL 6/30/2013 (Actual)12/31/2013 Reappropriations 4,980,445 3,765,345 Commitments 12,565,000 12,187,932 GAS UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 25 | P a g e APPENDIX C : GAS UTILITY RESERVES MANAGEMENT PRACTICES The following reserves management practices shall be used when developing the Gas Utility Financial Plan: Section 1. Definitions a) “Financial Planning Period” – The Financial Planning Period is the range of future fiscal years covered by the Financial Plan. For example, if the Financial Plan delivered in conjunction with the FY 2015 budget includes projections for FY 2015 to FY 2019, FY 2015 to FY 2019 would be the Financial Planning Period. b) “Fund Balance” – As used in these Reserves Management Practices, Fund Balance refers to the Utility’s Unrestricted Net Assets. c) “Net Assets” - The Government Accounting Standards Board defines a Utility’s Net Assets as the difference between its assets and liabilities. d) “Unrestricted Net Assets” - The portion of the Utility’s Net Assets not invested in capital assets (net of related debt) or restricted for debt service or other restricted purposes. Section 2. Supply Fund Reserves The Gas Utility’s Supply Fund Balance is reserved for the following purposes: a) For existing contracts, as described in Section 4 (Reserves for Commitments) b) For operating and capital budgets reappropriated from previous years, as described in Section 5 (Reserves for Reappropriations) Section 3. Distribution Fund Reserves The Gas Utility’s Distribution Fund Balance is reserved for the following purposes: a) For existing contracts, as described in Section 4 (Reserves for Commitments) b) For operating and capital budgets reappropriated from previous years, as described in Section 5 (Reserves for Reappropriations) c) For future year expenditure on the Gas Utility’s Capital Improvement Program (CIP), as described in Section 6 (CIP Reserve) d) For rate stabilization, as described in Section 7 (Rate Stabilization Reserve) e) For operating contingencies, as described in Section 8 (Operations Reserve) f) Any funds not included in the other reserves will be considered Unassigned Reserves and shall be returned to ratepayers or assigned a specific purpose as described in Section 9 (Unassigned Reserves). Section 4. Reserves for Commitments At the end of each fiscal year the Gas Supply Fund and Gas Distribution Fund Reserves for Commitments will be set to an amount equal to the total remaining spending authority for all contracts in force for the Gas Supply Fund and Gas Distribution Fund, respectively, at that time. GAS UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 26 | P a g e Section 5. Reserves for Reappropriations At the end of each fiscal year the Gas Supply Fund and Gas Distribution Fund Reserves for Reappropriations will be set to an amount equal to the amount of all remaining capital and non-capital budgets that will be reappropriated to the following fiscal year for each fund in accordance with Palo Alto Municipal Code Section 2.28.090. Section 6. CIP Reserve Funds may be added to or withdrawn from the CIP Reserve by action of the City Council and held for future year expenditure on the Gas Utility’s CIP Program. Withdrawal of funds from the CIP Reserve requires Council action. If there are funds in the CIP Reserve at the end of any fiscal year, any subsequent Gas Utility Financial Plan must result in the withdrawal of all funds from this Reserve by the end of the Financial Planning Period. Section 7. Rate Stabilization Reserve Funds may be added to the Rate Stabilization Reserve by action of the City Council and held to manage the trajectory of future year rate increases. Withdrawal of funds from the Rate Stabilization Reserve requires Council action. If there are funds in the Rate Stabilization Reserve at the end of any fiscal year, any subsequent Gas Utility Financial Plan must result in the withdrawal of all funds from this Reserve by the end of the Financial Planning Period. Section 8. Operations Reserve The Operations Reserve is used to manage normal variations in costs and as a reserve for contingencies. Any portion of the Gas Utility’s Fund Balance not included in the reserves described in Section 4 to Section 7 above will be included in the Operations Reserve unless this reserve has reached its maximum level as set forth in Section 8 (d) below. Staff will manage the Operations Reserve according to the following practices: a) The following guideline levels are set forth for the Operations Reserve. These guideline levels are calculated in for each fiscal year of the Financial Planning Period based on the levels of Operations and Maintenance (O&M) and commodity expense commodity expense forecasted for that year in the Financial Plan. Minimum Level 60 days of O&M and commodity expense Target Level 90 days of O&M and commodity expense Maximum Level 120 days of O&M and commodity expense b) Minimum Level: If, at the end of any fiscal year, the funds remaining in the Operations Reserve are lower than the minimum level set forth above, staff shall present a plan to the City Council to replenish the reserve. The plan shall be delivered within six months of the end of the fiscal year, and shall, at a minimum, result in the reserve reaching its minimum level by the end of the following fiscal year. For example, if the Operations Reserve is below its minimum level at the end of FY 2014, staff must present a plan by GAS UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 27 | P a g e December 31, 2014 to return the reserve to its minimum level by June 30, 2015. In addition, staff may present, and the Council may adopt, an alternative plan that takes longer than one year to replenish the reserve. c) Target Level: If, at the end of any fiscal year, the Operations Reserve is higher or lower than the target level, any Financial Plan created for the Gas Utility shall be designed to return the Operations Reserve to its target level by the end of the forecast period. d) Maximum Level: If, at any time, the Operations Reserve reaches its maximum level, no funds may be added to this Reserve. Any further increase in the Gas Utility’s Fund Balance shall be automatically included in the Unassigned Reserve described in Section 9, below. Section 9. Unassigned Reserve If the Operations Reserve reaches its maximum level, any further additions to the Gas Utility’s Fund Balance will be held in the Unassigned Reserve. If there are any funds in the Unassigned Reserve at the end of any fiscal year, the next Financial Plan presented to the City Council must include a plan to assign them to a specific purpose or return them to the Gas Utility ratepayers by the end of the first fiscal year of the next Financial Planning Period. For example, if there were funds in the Unassigned Reserves at the end of FY 2015, and the next Financial Planning Period is FY 2016 through FY 2020, the Financial Plan shall include a plan to return or assign any funds in the Unassigned Reserve by the end of FY 2016. Staff may present an alternative plan that retains these funds or returns them over a longer period of time. Section 10. Intra-Utility Transfers between Supply and Distribution Funds The Gas Utility records costs in two separate funds: the Gas Supply Fund and the Gas Distribution Fund. At the end of each fiscal year staff is authorized to transfer an amount equal to the difference between Gas Supply Fund costs and Gas Supply Fund Revenues from the Gas Distribution Fund Operations Reserve to the Gas Supply Fund or vice versa. Such transfers shall be included in the ordinance closing the budget for the fiscal year. GAS UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 28 | P a g e APPENDIX D : GAS UTILITY DEBT SERVICE DETAILS The Gas Utility currently makes debt service payments on one bond issuance, the 2011 Series A Utility Revenue Refunding Bonds. This bond issuance was to refinance the $18 million principal remaining on the Utility Revenue Bonds, 2002 Series A issued for the Gas and Water Utilities to finance various improvements to the distribution systems. $9.4 million of this issuance was secured by the net revenues of the Gas Utility. Debt service for this bond for the financial forecast period is shown in Table 11. Debt service on this bond will continue through 2026. Table 11: Gas Utility Debt Service FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 2011 Utility Revenue Refunding Bonds, Series A 802 803 804 803 802 801 801 803 The 2011 bonds include two covenants stating that 1) the Gas Utility will maintain a debt coverage ratio of 125% of debt service, and 2) that the City will maintain “Available Reserves”12 equal to five times the annual debt service. The current financial plan complies with these covenants throughout the forecast period, as shown in Table 12 and Table 13. Table 12: Debt Service Coverage Ratio ($000) FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 Revenues 38,131 36,032 35,869 35,596 36,920 36,588 38,871 41,934 Expenses (Excluding CIP and Debt Service) (33,171) (32,235) (32,549) (33,014) (32,847) (31,901) (33,605) (36,342) Net Revenues 4,960 3,797 3,320 2,582 4,073 4,687 5,266 5,592 Debt Service 802 803 804 803 802 801 801 803 Coverage Ratio 618% 473% 413% 322% 508% 585% 657% 696% Table 13: Debt Service Minimum Reserves ($000) FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 Gas Utilitya 16,237 17,416 14,972 12,231 10,678 9,604 9,167 9,092 Debt Serviceb 802 803 804 803 802 801 801 803 Reserves Ratioc 20x 22x 19x 15x 13x 12x 11x 11x a) CIP, Rate Stabilization, Operations, and Unassigned Reserves b) Gas Utility’s share of the debt service on the 2011 bonds. c) Calculated using only Gas Utility reserves. The actual reserves ratio for the 2011 bonds is calculated based on the combined Electric, Gas, and Water Utility reserves and debt service and is higher than shown here. The Gas Utility’s reserves and net revenue are also pledged as security for the bond issuances listed in Table 14, even though the Gas Utility is not responsible for the debt service payments. The Gas Utility’s reserves or net revenues would only be called upon i f the responsible utilities are unable to make their debt service payments. Staff does not currently foresee this 12 Available Reserves as defined in the 2011 bonds include the reserves for the Water, Electric, and Gas Utilities GAS UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 29 | P a g e occurring. Amounts advanced from one utility to pay debt service for another utility will be repaid by the borrowing fund. Table 14: Other Issuances Secured by Gas Utility’s Revenues or Reserves Bond Issuance Responsible Utilities Annual Debt Service ($000) Secured by Gas Utility’s: Net Revenues Reserves 1995 Series A Utility Revenue Bonds Storm Drain $680 Yes No 1999 Utility Revenue Bonds, Series A Wastewater Collection Wastewater Treatment Storm Drain $1,207 No Yes 2009 Water Revenue Bonds (Build America Bonds) Water $1,977* No Yes *Net of Federal interest subsidy GAS UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 30 | P a g e APPENDIX E : DESCRIPTION OF GAS UTILITY COST CATEGORIES This appendix describes the activities associated with the various cost categories referred to in this Financial Plan. Customer Service: This category includes the Gas Utility’s share of the call center, meter reading, collections, and billing support functions. Billing support encompasses staff time associated with bill investigations and quality control on certain aspects of the billing process. It does not include maintenance of the billing system itself, which is included in Administration. This category also includes CPAU’s key account representatives, who work with large commercial customers who have more complex requirements for their gas services. Resource Management: This category includes gas procurement, contract management, rate setting, and tracking of legislation and regulation related to the gas industry. Operations and Maintenance: This category includes the costs of a variety of distribution system maintenance activities, including:  surveying the gas system (50% of the system each year) and repairing any leaks found;  investigating reports of damaged mains or services and perform emergency repairs;  building and replacing gas services for new or redeveloped buildings; and  testing and replacing meters to ensure accurate sales metering. This category also includes a variety of functions the utility shares with other City utilities, including:  the Field Services team (which does field research of various customer service issues);  the Cathodic Protection team (which monitors and maintains the systems that prevent corrosion in metal pipes and reservoirs); and  the General Services team (which manages and maintains equipment, paves and restores streets after gas, water, or sewer main replacements, and provides welding services, including certified gas line welding services) Administration: Accounting, purchasing, legal, and other administrative functions provided by the City’s General Fund staff, as well as shared communications services and Utilities Department administrative overhead and billing system maintenance costs. Demand Side Management: Includes the cost of administering gas efficiency programs and the direct cost of rebates paid. Engineering (Operating): The Gas Utility’s engineers focus primarily on the CIP, but a small portion of their time is spent assisting with distribution system maintenance. APPENDIX F : GAS UTILITY COMMUNIC ATIONS SAMPLES WASTEWATER COLLECTIO N UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN FY 2015 TO FY 2019 TABLE OF CONTENTS Definitions and Abbreviations ............................................................................................... 2 Executive Summary ............................................................................................................... 2 Current State of the Utility .................................................................................................... 3 Section I. Utility Overview ........................................................................................................... 3 Section II. Current Rates and Competitiveness ........................................................................... 4 Section III. Rate Design ............................................................................................................... 5 Section IV. Current Utility Financial Status ................................................................................. 5 Section V. Status of Reserves ...................................................................................................... 7 Section VI. Debt Service .............................................................................................................. 8 Looking Back ......................................................................................................................... 8 Section VII. Background .............................................................................................................. 8 Section VIII. Historical Expenses and Revenues ........................................................................ 10 Looking Forward .................................................................................................................. 10 Section IX. Five Year Financial Forecast .................................................................................... 10 1. Overview ................................................................................................................... 10 2. Treatment Costs ........................................................................................................ 11 3. Operations ................................................................................................................ 12 4. Capital Improvement Program (CIP) .......................................................................... 12 Section X. Revenue Requirement and Revenue Sources ........................................................... 14 Section XI. Risk Assessment ...................................................................................................... 15 Section XII. Long-term Outlook ................................................................................................. 16 Section XIII. Communications Plan ........................................................................................... 16 Appendices ......................................................................................................................... 17 Appendix A: Wastewater Collection Financial Forecast Detail .................................................. 18 Appendix B: Wastewater Collection Utility Capital Improvement Program (CIP) Detail .......... 19 Appendix C: Wastewater Collection Utility Reserves Management Practices .......................... 20 Appendix D: Wastewater Collection Debt Service Details ......................................................... 23 Appendix E: Sample of Wastewater Collection Outreach Materials ......................................... 25 WASTEWATER COLLECTION UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 2 | P a g e DEFINITIONS AND ABBR EVIATIONS CCF – the standard unit of measurement for water delivered to water customers. Equal to one hundred cubic feet, or roughly 748 gallons. When water usage is used to assess wastewater charges for commercial customers, it is measured in CCF. CIP – Capital Improvement Program CPAU – City of Palo Alto Utilities Department FOG – Fats, oils, and grease. When flushed into the sewer system, these materials accumulate in parts of the sewer system and create blockages. RWQCP – Regional Water Quality Control Plant, the wastewater treatment plant owned and operated by the City of Palo Alto that serves Palo Alto and several surrounding communities. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This document presents a financial plan for the City of Palo Alto’s Wastewater Collection Utility for the next five years. It provides revenues to cover the costs of operating the utility safely over that time while adequately investing for the future. It also addresses the financial risks facing the utility over the short term and long term, and includes measures to mitigate and manage those risks. Over the next five fiscal years staff projects that the Wastewater Collection Utility will see wastewater treatment costs rising 4% to 5% per year and other costs rising at roughly 3% per year. To match revenues to these rising costs, the financial plan includes the rate trajectory shown in Table 1. No increase is planned for FY 2015, and for FY 2016 to FY 2019 rates are projected to increase 7% per year. These projected rate increases are equivalent to an increase of $2.05 to $2.51 per month for a residential customer’s sewer bill. This rate trajectory will allow the utility to draw down accumulated reserves, which resulted from the fact that staff did not add a new sewer main replacement project in FY 2014 and a one-time decrease in treatment costs related to a change in billing methodology by Palo Alto’s Regional Water Quality Control Plant (RWQCP). Table 1: Projected Wastewater Collection Rate Trajectory for FY 2015 to FY 2019 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 0% 7% 7% 7% 7% In addition, this Financial Plan includes the Wastewater Collection Utility Reserves Management Practices. These set forth the various reserves held by the Wastewater Collection Utility, their purposes, and guidelines for managing them. The Reserves Management Practices make the following changes to the utility’s existing reserves structure: o The addition of an Operations Reserve, a Capital Improvement Program (CIP) Reserve, and an Unassigned Reserve WASTEWATER COLLECTION UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 3 | P a g e o The merger of the Emergency Plant Replacement Reserve into the new Operations Reserve To fund the new Operations Reserve, a transfer of $2.7 million from the Rate Stabilization Reserve to the Operations Reserve is included in this plan. CURRENT STATE OF THE UTILITY SECTION I. UTILITY OVERVIEW The City of Palo Alto’s Wastewater Collection Utility, operated by the City of Palo Alto Utilities Department (CPAU) provides sewer service to the residents and businesses of Palo Alto. It is distinct from the Wastewater Treatment Utility, operated by the City of Palo Alto Public Works Department, which provides treatment services for surrounding communities in addition to Palo Alto. Nearly 27,200 customers are connected to the sewer system, approximately 25,600 (94%) of which are residential and 1,600 (6%) of which are non-residential. Residential customers pay a flat fee for service. Non-residential customers are billed for sewer service based on their metered winter water usage. There is little variability in revenues for this utility. The Wastewater Collection Utility delivers all the wastewater it collects to the RWQCP, a treatment plant run by the City of Palo Alto under a partnership agreement with several surrounding communities. Palo Alto is responsible for 38% to 40% of the wastewater sent to the RWQCP. The cost of running the RWQCP is contained in the Wastewater Treatment Utility and is not described in detail in this Financial Plan, but since these costs are a major driver of CPAU’s sewer rates there is some discussion of future trends in treatment costs in Section IX. Five Year Financial Forecast. Treatment costs make up nearly half of the Wastewater Collection Utility’s expenses. To collect wastewater from its customers and deliver it to the Regional Water Quality Control Plant (RWQCP), the utility owns roughly 18,000 sewer laterals (which collect wastewater from customers’ plumbing systems) and 217 miles of sewer mains (which transport the waste to the treatment plant). These laterals and mains, along with the associated manholes and cleanouts, represent the vast majority of infrastructure used to collect wastewater in Palo Alto. CPAU conducts a sewer rehabilitation and replacement program to replace mains over time as they deteriorate or to increase capacity. For more discussion of this program, see Section IX. Five Year Financial Forecast. CIP expense accounts for roughly a quarter of the utility’s expenditures. In addition to its CIP, CPAU performs various maintenance activities on the sewer system. These include inspecting and repairing sewer laterals, responding to sewer overflows, regularly cleaning sections of the system heavily impacted by fats, oils, and grease (FOG), and building and replacing sewer laterals for new or redeveloped buildings. The utility also shares the costs of other operational activities (such as customer service, billing, equipment maintenance, and street restoration) with the City’s other utilities. These maintenance and operations expenses , as well as associated administration, debt service, rent, and other costs, make up another quarter of the utility’s expenses. WASTEWATER COLLECTION UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 4 | P a g e SECTION II. CURRENT R ATES AND COMPETITIVE NESS The current rates were adopted July 1, 2012, when CPAU increased sewer rates by 5%. The rate change included a revenue-neutral change to the billing methodology for commercial customers. CPAU now bases its sewer rates for commercial customers on the previous winter ’s water use as opposed to the water use in the actual billing month . This closely approximates non-irrigation water consumption, which represents actual sewer use. Table 2, below, summarizes the current rates for all customer classes. CPAU has three sewer rate schedules: one for residents (S-1), one for commercial customers (S-2), and a special schedule for restaurants (S-6), which discharge higher than average strengths of grease and oil and therefore have a greater impact on the sewer system. CPAU also maintains a rate schedule for industrial dischargers (S-7), but there are currently no customers required to be on this rate schedule. Table 2: Current Sewer Rates (Effective 7/1/2012) Rate Component Units S-1 (Residential) S-2 (Commercial) S-6 (Restaurant) Monthly Service Charge $/month 29.31 29.31 29.31 Quantity Rate $/CCF - 5.65 8.73 Table 3 shows the sewer bills for residential customers compared to what they would be under surrounding communities’ rate schedules. The annual sewer bill for a Palo Alto customer is $351.72 under current rates, 30% lower than the average neighboring community. Palo Alto has the third lowest monthly rate of the group. Table 3: Residential Monthly Sewer Bill Comparison Palo Alto Neighboring Communities Neighboring Community Average Menlo Park Redwood City Mountain View Los Altos Santa Clara Hayward 29.31 68.33 63.09 26.10 32.36 33.00 27.27 41.69 Based on rates as of January 1, 2014 Table 4 compares the sewer bills for two classes of commercial customers to what they would be under surrounding communities’ rate schedules. Note that other communities often have specific rates for industrial customers that discharge high intensity wastewater, such as food processors or chemical or electronics manufacturers, but Palo Alto does not currently have any customers that require these special rates. The annual bill for the median Palo Alto commercial customer is $949, 10% above the average neighboring community. For the average restaurant the annual bill is $5,867, 7% above the average neighboring community. WASTEWATER COLLECTION UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 5 | P a g e Table 4: Commercial Monthly Sewer Bill Comparison Palo Alto Neighboring Communities Neighboring Community Average Menlo Park Redwood City Mountain View Los Altos Santa Clara Hayward General Commercial $79.10 $120.80 $82.88 $54.40 $49.84 $53.71 $69.76 $71.90 Restaurant $488.88 $527.52 $703.92 $372.40 $199.36 $420.84 $515.20 $456.54 Based on rates as of January 1, 2014 SECTION III. RATE DESIGN The Wastewater Collection Utility’s rates are evaluated and implemented in compliance with the cost of service requirements and procedural rules set forth in the California Constitution (Proposition 218). Current rates were structured based on the methodology from the January 2011 Wastewater Collection Utility Cost of Service & Rate Study completed by Utility Financial Solutions1. Staff tentatively plans to review and update this cost of service study in 2 to 3 years, unless any major changes occur to the utility’s operations or customer base that would necessitate an earlier study. Before conducting any new cost of service study, staff will review current rates and the scope of the study with the UAC and Council to determine UAC and Council policy priorities. SECTION IV. CURRENT UTILITY FINANCIAL STATUS In FY 2013, treatment costs represented nearly half of the Wastewater Collection Utility’s costs, with the CIP being the next largest expense (23% of costs), then Operations (16%), and finally administration, overhead, and other costs (14%), as shown in Figure 2. These expenditures are also displayed by category of expenditure in Figure 1. The utility’s revenue in FY 2013 came primarily from sewer charges (88%), with the remainder coming from capacity and connection fees (9%), and other sources (3%). 1 Staff Report ID#1399, Finance Committee, March 1, 2011 WASTEWATER COLLECTION UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 6 | P a g e Table 5 contains a summary of the Wastewater Collection Utility’s financial outlook for FY 2014. Sales are very stable since 53% of sales are to residential customers, whose rate consists of fixed monthly service charges. A component of business sales revenues is based on winter water use levels, which are fairly stable as well. For FY 2014, sales revenues are projected to be $602,000 below budget due to a decrease in commercial sales related to lower winter water consumption by those customers. This is offset by an increase in connection and capacity fees associated with new development and redevelopment. Staff is projecting a one-time reduction in treatment costs of $1.3 million associated with a change in billing methodology by the RWQCP. As a result, net revenue is projected to be $3.3 million, $1.5 million higher than budgeted. However, FY 2014 is an atypical year. Due to staffing constraints, CPAU’s Sewer Rehabilitation and Replacement Program, which costs roughly $3 million per year, has been put on hold for a year while staff completes a backlog of projects from prior years. If the program had been funded at its usual rate, and treatment costs were at normal levels, revenues would not cover all costs this fiscal year. Table 5: Projected Net Revenue, FY 2014 Wastewater Collection - Operating Activity All figures in thousands ($000’s) Adopted Budget FY 2014 Unaudited Actuals Jul 13-Dec13 Projected Activity Jan 14-Jul 14 Projected FY 2014 Activity Variance to Budget Net Sales to date 15,010 7,265 7,143 14,408 (602) Other revenues to date 1,534 1,415 779 2,194 660 Treatment costs to date (8,589) (4,295) (2,957) (7,251) 1,338 Other expenses to date (6,120) (2,786) (3,262) (6,048) 72 Total 1,835 1,600 1,703 3,303 1,468 Figure 2: FY 2013 Costs by Activity Treatment, 47% CIP, 23% Operations, 16% Admin/ Overhead, 11% Other, 3% Figure 1: FY 2013 Costs by Category Treatment, 47% CIP, 23% Supplies/ Materials / Other, 5% Salaries/ Benefits, 14% Admin/ Overhead, 11% WASTEWATER COLLECTION UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 7 | P a g e SECTION V. STATUS OF RESERVES Table 6, below, shows the projected status of the Wastewater Collection Utility’s reserves at the end of FY 2014. Total reserves at year end (6/30/2014) are projected to be $19.6 million, of which $7.4 million will be in the Rate Stabilization Reserve. As detailed in Appendix C: Wastewater Collection Utility Reserves Management Practices and in Table 6, this plan includes changes to the structure of the utility’s reserves, including: 1. Adding an Operations Reserve, CIP Reserve, and Unassigned Reserve 2. Merging the Emergency Plant Replacement Reserve into the Operations Reserve Table 6: Projected Reserves, 6/30/2014 Projected Reserve Levels (Current Reserves Structure) ($000) Proposed Reallocation of Reserves ($000) Projected Reserve Levels (Proposed Reserves Structure) ($000) Reserve for Reappropriations 8,443 N/A 8,443 Reserve for Commitments 2,727 N/A 2,727 Emergency Plant Replacement 1,000 -1,000 (closed) CIP Reserve (new) 0 0 Rate Stabilization Reserve 7,407 -2,728 4,679 Operations Reserve (new) 3,728 3,728 Unassigned Reserve (new) 0 0 Total 19,577 19,577 Operations Reserve: Days of Expense 105 days Operations Reserve: Minimum 60 days Operations Reserve: Target 105 days Operations Reserve: Maximum 150 days The addition of an Operations Reserve, CIP Reserve, and Unassigned Reserve will add transparency and simplify reserves management by providing separate reserves for various functions that are currently all served by the Rate Stabilization Reserve. The Operations Reserve will be used to manage contingencies and absorb normal year to year cost and revenue variances. The CIP Reserve will hold funds for expenditure on future budgeted CIP projects. The Rate Stabilization Reserve will be used to smooth the transition to higher rates. If an unexpected windfall results in the utility accumulating reserves that are not designated for a specific purpose, these will be placed in the Unassigned Reserve until those funds are either designated for a specific purpose or returned to ratepayers. Creating separate CIP, Rate Stabilization, and Unassigned Reserves allows the utility to set minimum and maximum guidelines for the Operations Reserve and set forth clear actions to be taken when it is over or under those levels. If funds are required for a specific purpose (for example, a future CIP project) these can be held in a separate reserve (in this example, the CIP WASTEWATER COLLECTION UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 8 | P a g e Reserve). Without a separate reserve, those funds would end up in the Operations Reserve and would cause it to exceed its maximum guideline, making it difficult to treat the maximum guideline as a clear limit on the size of the reserve. This proposal also adds transparency, since the public will be able to see the various purposes for which the utility is holding reserves. This plan also involves merging the existing Emergency Plant Replacement Reserve into the Operations Reserve. Currently the Emergency Plant Replacement Reserve holds $1 million, enough to pay the City’s insurance deductible in the event of a loss of utility equipment due to an insurable loss. Staff believes that even at minimum levels the Operations Reserve has adequate funding to cover the insurance deductible, making the Emergency Plant Replacement Reserve duplicative. To provide initial funding to the Operations Reserve, $2.7 million will be transferred from the Rate Stabilization Reserve to the Operations Reserve, retaining $4.7 million in the Rate Stabilization Reserve to be drawn down over future years as rates increase. Combined with the $1 million from the Emergency Plant Replacement Reserve, the Operations Reserve’s initial funding will be $3.7 million, the target level set forth in Appendix C: Wastewater Collection Utility Reserves Management Practices (105 days of commodity and O&M expense). SECTION VI. DEBT SERVICE The Wastewater Collection Utility’s annual debt service is roughly $128,000 per year. This is related to one bond issuance that will require payments through 2024. This issuance, the 1999 Utility Revenue Bonds, Series A, is a joint issuance between the Storm Drain, Wastewater Treatment, and Wastewater Collection Utilities refinancing several different earlier bond issuances. The City is in compliance with all covenants on that bond. Additional detail is provided in Appendix D. LOOKING BACK SECTION VII. BACKGROUND The Wastewater Utility commenced operation in 1899 to serve Palo Alto and Stanford. In its first three decades the system grew to 60 miles of sewers. Raw sewage was discharged into Mayfield Slough at the edge of the Bay. In the 1930s, at the behest of the S tate Department of Health, Palo Alto built the South Bay’s first wastewater treatment plant. At that time the sewer system served 20,500 Stanford and Palo Alto residents and a cannery. The plant was upgraded twice in the 1940s and 1950s to increase capacity.2 At the same time, the postwar population and industrial boom in the 1950s required rapid expansion of the sewer system. In the first half of the 1960s Palo Alto’s area doubled, as did wastewater flows, overwhelming the capacity of several of the utility’s “trunk lines,” which are the largest diameter main sewer lines carrying wastewater to the treatment plant. This prompted the City, in 1965, to perform the first of its 2 Long Range Facilities Plan for the Regional Water Quality Control Plant, August 2012, Carollo Engineers, pp 2-1 through 2-2 WASTEWATER COLLECTION UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 9 | P a g e sewer master plans to identify needed capacity improvements. At that point the Wastewater Utility’s system comprised more than 150 miles of sewer mains.3 In 1968 the City signed agreements with the Cities of Mountain View and Los Altos to build a new regional treatment plant, the RWQCP, which is still in operation today. Since 1940 the City had been providing treatment services to the East Palo Alto Sanitary District through an existing agreement, and was also serving Stanford University by transporting wastewater across the City’s sewer system to the treatment plant. Both of these organizations became partners in the RWQCP as well. At the same time the Town of Los Altos Hills became the sixth partner as it signed an agreement with the City to connect the Town’s sewer system to the City’s sewer system to carry wastewater to the new RWQCP. The current agreements for the RWQCP extend through 2035.4 In the 1980s the City directed increased attention to the condition of its sewer system, performing a series of studies of groundwater inflow and infiltration into the system. The study found high rates of infiltration, estimating that as much as 40% of the water going to the RWQCP from Palo Alto’s system was groundwater and stormwater rather than wastewater.5 In some parts of Palo Alto the ground had subsided due to groundwat er pumping by the water utility, and though that practice had ceased many years earlier as the water utility switched to the Hetch Hetchy system, parts of the city had already subsided two to five feet. This subsidence had damaged several parts of the collection system, leading to reduced slopes for sewer mains that caused reductions in capacity. In response to these studies the City commenced an accelerated sewer system rehabilitation program.6 At that point the sewer system comprised over 190 miles of mains.7 The final study of the 1980s, a Master Plan study in 1988, recommended a variety of capacity expansions, and in the 1990s the City completed about half of them. However, a 2004 Master Plan update found that the accelerated sewer rehabilitation plan started in the early 1990’s had substantially reduced infiltration, easing the capacity problems that had led the to the recommended capacity increases in the 1988 study. Several of the outstanding projects were canceled and replaced with a different set of projects.8 At the same time the City updated its hydraulic model and developed greater capacity to do system planning in house. Today, with a system comprising 217 miles of sewer mains, the Wastewater Collection Utility continues to serve over 27,000 Palo Alto residences and businesses, and transports wastewater to the RWQCP for Stanford University and the Town of Los Altos Hills. 3 Wastewater Collection and Storm Drainage, 1965, Brown and Caldwell Consulting Engineers, pp 4, 6-7, 143 4 Long Range Facilities Plan for the Regional Water Quality Control Plant, August 2012, Carollo Engineers, pg 2-2 5 Wastewater Collection System Master Plan – Capacity Assessment, January 2004, MWH Americas, Inc., pg ES-2 6 CMR 183:90, Infrastructure Review and Update, March 1, 1990 7 Master Plan of the Wastewater Collection System, December 1988, Camp Dresser & McKee, Inc., pg 1-2 8 Wastewater Collection System Master Plan – Capacity Assessment, January 2004, MWH Americas, Inc., pg ES-3 WASTEWATER COLLECTION UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 10 | P a g e SECTION VIII. HISTORICAL EXPENSES AND REVENUES Table 7 shows the Wastewater Collection Utility’s expenses and revenues for the past five years. Treatment charges made up 40% of total expenses in FY 2009, but have been increasing by 6% per year on average, rising to 47% of total expenses in FY 2013. Total costs for this utility have increased 3.5% per year on average over the last four years, almost entirely due to these increases in treatment costs. Excluding treatment costs, costs for this utility have stayed stable since 2009. Revenues increased in FY 2010 and FY 2013, primarily due to rate increases. One item of note is the negative interest earned in FY 2013, which represents a decrease in the market value of the City’s investment portfolio that accounting rules require the City to recognize at the end of each fiscal year. Given that the City holds its investments to maturity these “mark to market” gains and losses do not impact the utility’s long term financial position. Table 7: Historical Expenses, Wastewater Collection Utility LOOKING FOR WARD SECTION IX. F IVE YEAR FINANCIAL F ORECAST 1. OVERVIEW Staff has prepared a forecast of costs and revenues through FY 2019. As shown in Table 8 (and Appendix A), the Wastewater Collection Utility’s total costs are projected to increase by 4% per year on average for FY 2015 through FY 2019. The utility’s sales revenue will need to increase 2009 2010 2011 2012 2012 2013 5 RETAIL SALES REVENUE 13,744 14,490 14,287 14,371 14,094 15,019 6 CONNECTION AND CAPACITY FEES 601 469 1,081 740 989 1,609 7 OTHER / TRANSFERS IN 254 278 307 278 264 545 8 INTEREST 805 674 454 480 494 (211) 9 TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 15,403 15,910 16,129 15,868 15,841 16,963 10 11 PURCHASES/CHARGES OF UTILITIES (TREATMENT)6,131 6,519 7,414 7,954 8,895 8,314 12 ALLOCATED CHARGES (CIP&OPERATING)639 1,535 1,787 1,522 791 1,926 13 CUSTOMER SERVICE 301 239 281 266 72 1 14 DISTRIBUTION OPERATIONS 2,157 1,997 2,227 2,425 2,466 2,617 15 ENGINEERING (OPERATING)283 220 195 393 258 271 16 DEBT SERVICE 128 128 128 128 128 128 17 RENT 109 115 115 106 106 110 18 OTHER/ TRANSFERS OUT 732 168 267 88 88 147 19 CAPITAL IMPROVEMENT FUNDING 4,871 4,935 4,630 4,274 4,274 4,094 21 TOTAL USES OF FUNDS 15,352 15,856 17,044 17,157 17,079 17,610 22 23 INTO / (OUT OF) RESERVES 52 54 (914) (1,288) (1,238) (647) Fiscal Year WASTEWATER COLLECTION UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 11 | P a g e by 5% annually, on average, through FY 2019. Although costs are rising at only 4% per year, revenues are currently below costs in a normal year.9 Over the last several years actual costs for operations, maintenance, and CIP have been relatively low. The cost of maintaining and replacing the distribution system in FY 2013 was almost the same as it was in FY 2009, and this has offset the rising cost of treatment. This was likely due to the economic downturn, which led to lower costs for services and materials. Staff is starting to see indications that this trend is reversing. Prices are rising for contract services and materials, and this means that the utility is more likely to see rising costs in the future. If costs for operations, maintenance, and CIP incre ase more quickly than projected in this plan, either due to the improving economy or other factors, larger rate increases may be required. Table 8: Five Year Financial Forecast Summary 2. TREATMENT COSTS Treatment expenses represent the Wastewater Collection Utility’s share of the costs of operating the RWQCP. Per the partnership agreements between Palo Alto and its partner agencies, these charges are assessed based on a formula that takes into account the total amount of wastewater delivered, the amount of organic material in it, its ammonia content, and the total suspended solids it is carrying. The Wastewater Collection Utility’s assessed share of the RWQCP’s revenue requirement fluctuates in the 38% to 40% range. Mountain View is 9 Note that FY 2014 is atypical because staff did not commence a new sewer system replacement project as it normally does each year and treatment costs are projected to be low due to a one-time savings related to a change in treatment billing methodology. Actual Adopted Projected 2013 2014 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 1 2 % CHANGE IN RETAIL RATE 5.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%7.0%7.0%7.0%7.0% 3 PROJECTED CHANGE IN RETAIL SALES REVENUE 715 - - - 1,051 1,125 1,204 1,288 4 5 RETAIL SALES REVENUE 15,019 15,010 14,402 15,010 16,018 17,140 18,340 19,624 6 CONNECTION AND CAPACITY FEES 1,609 861 1,527 1,287 1,328 1,369 1,409 1,439 7 OTHER / TRANSFERS IN 545 302 302 271 271 271 271 271 8 INTEREST (211) 371 371 238 245 253 277 271 9 TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 16,963 16,544 16,601 16,806 17,862 19,032 20,297 21,605 10 11 PURCHASES/CHARGES OF UTILITIES (TREATMENT)8,314 8,589 7,251 8,501 8,926 9,372 9,840 10,332 12 ALLOCATED CHARGES (CIP&OPERATING)1,926 1,699 2,333 2,410 2,481 2,566 2,655 2,747 CUSTOMER SERVICE 1 227 229 238 245 255 265 276 13 DISTRIBUTION OPERATIONS 2,617 2,545 2,557 2,628 2,704 2,808 2,915 3,028 ENGINEERING (OPERATING)271 301 232 240 247 256 266 277 14 DEBT SERVICE 128 129 129 129 128 128 128 128 15 RENT 110 122 122 125 129 133 137 141 16 OTHER/ TRANSFERS OUT 147 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 17 CAPITAL IMPROVEMENT FUNDING 4,094 989 989 4,067 4,185 4,306 4,421 4,540 ALLOWANCE FOR UNSPENT CAPITAL FUNDS - (650) (86) (104) (122) (140) (158) 18 TOTAL USES OF FUNDS 17,610 14,708 13,299 18,359 19,048 19,810 20,597 21,420 19 20 INTO / (OUT OF) RESERVES (647) 1,835 3,303 (1,552) (1,186) (778) (300) 186 Fiscal Year WASTEWATER COLLECTION UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 12 | P a g e the other large agency served by the RWQCP (38% of the revenue requirement for FY 2013) with other agencies (Stanford, Los Altos, East Palo Alto, and Los Altos Hills) making up the remainder of the flow to the treatment plant. In the next five years treatment costs are expected to rise 4% to 5% per year, primarily due to increased CIP spending by the RWQCP. In the longer term, treatment costs are expected to continue to rise at that rate as major upgrade and replacement projects are undertaken at the plant. These costs are described in more detail in Section XII. Long-term Outlook. 3. OPERATIONS Operations costs include the Customer Service, Distribution Operations, Engineering, and Allocated Charges categories in Table 8, above. Debt service, rent, and transfers are also included in this category. Customer Service costs are primarily related to the call center and collections on delinquent accounts. The Distribution Operations category includes preventative and corrective maintenance on mains and laterals, investigation of sewer ove rflows, regular cleaning of heavily impacted sections of the sewer system, and services shared with other utilities (such as street restoration and equipment maintenance). Allocated Charges include the costs of accounting, purchasing, legal, and other administrative functions provided by the City’s General Fund staff, as well as shared communications services and Utilities Department administrative overhead and billing system maintenance costs. Operations costs are projected to increase by 3% per year, on average, over the forecast period. Underlying these projections are salary and benefit, consumer price index, and other cost projections obtained from the City’s long-range financial forecast. 4. CAPITAL IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM (CIP) The Wastewater Collection Utility’s CIP consists of the following programs:  The Sewer System Replacement/Rehabilitation Program, under which the Wastewater Collection Utility replaces aging sewer mains  Customer Connections, which covers the cost when the Wastewater Collection Utility installs new services or upgrades existing services at a customer’s request in response to development or redevelopment. CPAU charges a fee to these customers to cover the cost of these projects.  Ongoing Projects, which covers the cost of replacing degraded manholes and sewer laterals, as well as the cost of capitalized tools and equipment. The Sewer System Replacement and Rehabilitation Program funds the replacement of deteriorating sewer mains and projects to increase capacity in various parts of the sewer system. The sewer system consists of over 217 miles of mains, and CPAU uses a variety of tools to establish which sections are in need of replacement. Maintenance statistics (such as records of the location and number of sewer overflows on the system) and videotape of sewer mains during regular cleaning can reveal areas with large amounts of deteriorating pipe. CPAU uses a scoring system to prioritize which mains to replace first, and coordinates with the Public Works WASTEWATER COLLECTION UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 13 | P a g e street maintenance program to avoid cutting into newly repaved streets. A major goal of the program is to minimize groundwater and rainwater infiltration. As mains deteriorate they begin to allow groundwater and rainwater to infiltrate the system. Some level of infiltration i s expected on any sewer system, but if there is too much, the combined flow of wastewater and groundwater/rainwater can overwhelm the capacity of various parts of the sewer system. Reducing infiltration can reduce the need to expand the system to accommod ate increased flow. To achieve this goal, deteriorating mains are either repaired with a plastic lining or replaced. CPAU replaces or repairs approximately 25,000 feet of main per year, or 2.5% of the system. The program also funds sewer capacity improvements. CPAU uses a hydraulic model, data from various flow meters on the system, and land use data to identify sections of the system that are being overloaded. When sewer mains are operating at or above their capacity on a regular basis it will increase the likelihood of sewer overflows. The Division also does occasional comprehensive master plan studies to identify necessary capacity improvements, most recently in 2004. That study identified eight projects, three of which have been completed. The remaining four projects are low priority projects and will be scheduled and planned as the need arises. Ongoing Projects and Customer Connections are projected to cost approximately $750,000 in FY 2015 and increase by 2.4% each year through the end of the forecast period. Actual expenses for these projects fluctuate annually depending on how many defective laterals or manholes are discovered during routine maintenance, as well as how much development and redevelopment is going on that prompts the replacement or upgrade of sewer laterals. It is worth noting that property owners pay a fee for sewer lateral replacement or expansion during redevelopment, so when costs go up, so does fee revenue. Aside from customer connections, the CIP plan for FY 2015 to FY 2019 is funded by sewer rates and capacity fees. The details of the plan are shown in Appendix B: Wastewater Collection Utility Capital Improvement Program (CIP) Detail. Table 9: Projected CIP Spending Project Category Current Budget* Spending, Curr. Yr Remain. Budget**Committed FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 Sewer Rehab/Augmentation 9,988 (1,708) 8,280 2,900 3,320 3,420 3,523 3,620 3,722 Ongoing Projects 1,333 (38) 1,295 719 375 382 389 396 403 Customer Connections 188 (98) 89 - 372 383 394 405 416 TOTAL 11,508 (1,844) 9,665 3,619 4,067 4,185 4,306 4,421 4,541 *Includes unspent funds from previous years carried forward or reappropriated into the current fiscal year **Equal to CIP Reserves (Reserve for Reappropriations + Reserve for Commitments). See Table 27. WASTEWATER COLLECTION UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 14 | P a g e SECTION X. REVENUE REQUIREMENT AND REVENUE SOURCES The revenue requirement is the total amount of revenue that must be collected from customers in order to meet the planned expenditures for the Wastewater Collection Utility. Costs for the Wastewater Collection Utility are projected to increase by 4% per year through FY 2019. Without rate increases, by FY 2019 costs would exceed revenues by nearly $5 million per year. Matching costs to revenues by FY 2019 will require 7% increases in sales revenues each year for FY 2016 to FY 2019, as shown in Figure 4, below. The plan assumes no rate increase in FY 2015, which will draw down accumulated reserves, which resulted from the fact that staff did not add a new sewer main replacement project in FY 2014 and a one-time decrease in treatment costs related to a change in billing methodology by Palo Alto’s Regional Water Quality Control Plant (RWQCP). Each of the projected FY 2016 to FY 2019 rate increases will increase residential sewer bills by $2.05 to $2.51 per month. Figure 3: Wastewater Collection Fund Revenue and Cost Projections Figure 4 also shows the reserve reallocations that implement the proposed Reserves Management Practices. The utility has seen substantial increases in connection and capacity fees in recent years, offsetting the need for increased sales revenue, and these are reflected in the current financial forecast. WASTEWATER COLLECTION UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 15 | P a g e Figure 4: Wastewater Collection Reserves Projections SECTION XI. RISK ASSESSMENT Staff performs an annual assessment of risks for the Wastewater Collection Utility. For this evaluation, staff estimates the revenue shortfall due to: 1. the maximum observed budget-to-actual variance in one year during the past five years; 2. an increase of 10% of planned system improvement CIP expenditures for the budget year; and 3. an increase of 10% in the planned expenditure for treatment costs. Table 10 summarizes the risk assessment calculation for the Wastewater Collection Utility. The Operations Reserve is projected to be adequate to manage these levels of risk over the entire forecast period. Table 10: Wastewater Collection Risk Assessment FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 Total Revenue ($000) 15,020 16,028 17,150 18,350 19,634 Max. Historical Budget-to-Actual variance 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% Budget-to-Actual Risk ($000) 1,502 1,603 1,715 1,835 1,963 System Rehabilitation CIP Budget ($000) 3,695 3,802 3,912 4,016 4,124 CIP Contingency @10% ($000) 370 380 391 402 412 Treatment Budget ($000) 8,501 8,926 9,372 9,840 10,332 Treatment Cost Contingency @10% ($000) 850 893 937 984 1,033 Total risk assessment value ($000) 2,722 2,876 3,043 3,221 3,408 Projected Operations Reserve Level ($000) 4,136 4,305 4,495 4,590 4,776 Projected FY 2014 year-end reserves under existing reserves structure Proposed reallocation (see Section V. Status of Reserves) WASTEWATER COLLECTION UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 16 | P a g e SECTION XII. LONG -TERM OUTLOOK In the longer term (5 to 35 years) the primary factor that could lead to increased costs for the Wastewater Collection Utility are major upgrades at the RWQCP, a share of which will be allocated to the utility as part of treatment costs. These upgrades includes replacement or rehabilitation of the parts of the facility that pump raw sewage to the main treatment works (the headworks), separate out primary sludge (the primary settling tank), process sludge (the biosolids facility), and treat wastewater (the fixed film reactors). Upgrades to the laboratories and operational buildings are planned as well. In addition, the 72 -inch regional trunk sewer line flowing into the plant needs to be evaluated and rehabilitated. Based on detailed project cost projections provided by RWQCP staff, treatment costs are likely to continue to increase by roughly 5% per year through at least 2030. Two of Palo Alto’s comparison cities, Mountain View and Los Altos, are partners in the RWQCP and will see similar increases, but other comparison agencies may not. SECTION XIII. COMMUNICATIONS PLAN The FY 2015 Wastewater Collection Utility communications strategy covers three primary areas: rates, operations and infrastructure, and safety. There is no need for formal “rate change” communications at this time, but website and community education about rates is ongoing. Sewer maintenance and safety promotional activity includes bill inserts, website pages, email blasts, and the use of social media. To keep customers apprised of the status and accomplishments of CIP projects, a network of project web pages are maintained; traffic is driven to the website via ads in publications, newspaper inserts, social media and email blasts. Safety topics are emphasized year-round and, while print materials and website pages still feature prominently, CPAU is turning the outreach emphasis to direct mail, newspaper inserts, and social media including video, cable TV, community safety/emergency preparation meetings and updates to neighborhood groups. One major issue for the wastewater utility is handling sewer back-ups due to FOG (fats, oil and grease) and trash being dumped down drains and toilets. Inspired by a story about a monstrous “fatberg” in London sewers, staff incorporated that concept into outreach ranging from advertisements to 3D models for workshops and schools visits. To address another continuing outreach goal of educating customers about the utility’s gas-sewer line crossbore inspection program, including the importance of calling Utilities first when there is a sewer back-up, staff ran a successful campaign featuring one of our primary sewer repair crewmen. WASTEWATER COLLECTION UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 17 | P a g e APPENDICES Appendix A: Wastewater Collection Financial Forecast Detail Appendix B: Wastewater Collection Utility Capital Improvement Program (CIP) Detail Appendix C: Wastewater Collection Utility Reserves Management Practices Appendix D: Wastewater Collection Debt Service Details Appendix E: Sample of Wastewater Collection Outreach Materials WASTEWATER COLLECTION UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 18 | P a g e APPENDIX A : WASTEWATER COLLECTIO N FINANCIAL FORECAST D ETAIL Actual Adopted Projected 2013 2014 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 1 2 % CHANGE IN RETAIL RATE 5.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%7.0%7.0%7.0%7.0% 3 PROJECTED CHANGE IN RETAIL SALES REVENUE 715 - - - 1,051 1,125 1,204 1,288 4 5 RETAIL SALES REVENUE 15,019 15,010 14,402 15,010 16,018 17,140 18,340 19,624 6 CONNECTION AND CAPACITY FEES 1,609 861 1,527 1,287 1,328 1,369 1,409 1,439 7 OTHER / TRANSFERS IN 545 302 302 271 271 271 271 271 8 INTEREST (211) 371 371 238 245 253 277 271 9 TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 16,963 16,544 16,601 16,806 17,862 19,032 20,297 21,605 10 11 PURCHASES/CHARGES OF UTILITIES (TREATMENT)8,314 8,589 7,251 8,501 8,926 9,372 9,840 10,332 12 ALLOCATED CHARGES (CIP&OPERATING)1,926 1,699 2,333 2,410 2,481 2,566 2,655 2,747 CUSTOMER SERVICE 1 227 229 238 245 255 265 276 13 DISTRIBUTION OPERATIONS 2,617 2,545 2,557 2,628 2,704 2,808 2,915 3,028 ENGINEERING (OPERATING)271 301 232 240 247 256 266 277 14 DEBT SERVICE 128 129 129 129 128 128 128 128 15 RENT 110 122 122 125 129 133 137 141 16 OTHER/ TRANSFERS OUT 147 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 17 CAPITAL IMPROVEMENT FUNDING 4,094 989 989 4,067 4,185 4,306 4,421 4,540 ALLOWANCE FOR UNSPENT CAPITAL FUNDS - (650) (86) (104) (122) (140) (158) 18 TOTAL USES OF FUNDS 17,610 14,708 13,299 18,359 19,048 19,810 20,597 21,420 19 20 INTO / (OUT OF) RESERVES (647) 1,835 3,303 (1,552) (1,186) (778) (300) 186 21 24 ENDING COMMITMENTS & REAPPROPRIATIONS 11,228 11,228 11,228 11,228 11,228 11,228 11,228 11,228 23 ENDING PLANT REPLACEMENT RESERVE 1,000 1,000 - - - - - - ENDING CIP RESERVE - - - - - - - - 22 ENDING RATE STABILIZATION RESERVE 4,104 5,940 4,679 2,719 1,363 395 - - ENDING OPERATIONS RESERVE - - 3,728 4,136 4,305 4,495 4,590 4,776 25 UNASSIGNED RESERVES - - - - - - - - 26 RISK ASSESSMENT VALUE 2,736 2,424 2,230 2,722 2,876 3,043 3,221 3,409 27 28 OPERATIONS RESERVE GUIDELINES 29 MIN (60 DAYS TREATMENT/O&M EXP)2,253 2,255 2,130 2,363 2,460 2,569 2,682 2,801 TARGET (105 DAYS TREATMENT/O&M EXP)2,736 3,947 3,728 4,136 4,305 4,495 4,694 4,901 30 MAX (150 DAYS TREATMENT/O&M EXP)4,506 5,638 5,326 5,909 6,151 6,422 6,705 7,002 31 Fiscal Year WASTEWATER COLLECTION UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 19 | P a g e APPENDIX B : WASTEWATER COLLECTIO N UTILITY CAPITAL IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM (CIP) DETAIL Project #Project Name Reappropriated / Carried Forward from Previous Years Current Year Funding Budget Amendments Spending, Current Year Remaining in CIP Reserve Fund Commitments FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 SEWER SYSTEM REHABILITATION AND AUGMENTATION (SSR/A) PROGRAM WC-07004 SSR/A - Project 20 96,044 - - (39,003) 57,041 18,227 - - - - - WC-08012 SSR/A - Project 21 188,809 - - - 188,809 - - - - - - WC-09001 SSR/A - Project 22 933,552 - - (845,532) 88,020 428,577 - - - - - WC-10002 SSR/A - Project 23 2,371,195 - - (426,685) 1,944,510 2,148,790 - - - - - WC-11000 SSR/A - Project 24 2,944,416 - - (198,486) 2,745,930 78,705 - - - - - WC-12001 SSR/A - Project 25 3,143,801 - - (197,850) 2,945,951 217,301 - - - - - WC-13001 SSR/A - Project 26 - 310,000 - - 310,000 8,806 3,000,000 - - - - WC-14001 SSR/A - Project 27 - - - - - - 320,000 3,090,000 - - - WC-15001 SSR/A - Project 28 - - - - - - - 330,000 3,183,000 - - WC-16001 SSR/A - Project 29 - - - - - - - - 340,000 3,270,000 - WC-17001 SSR/A - Project 30 - - - - - - - - - 350,000 3,361,500 WC-19001 SSR/A - Project 31 - - - - - - - - - - 360,000 Subtotal, Sewer Rehab./Augmentation 9,677,817 310,000 - (1,707,556) 8,280,261 2,900,406 3,320,000 3,420,000 3,523,000 3,620,000 3,721,500 ONGOING PROJECTS WC-13002 Fusion & Gen. Equip./Tools 28,132 - - - 28,132 45,625 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 WC-15002 WW System Improvements 244,249 218,000 - (12,984) 449,265 - 225,000 232,000 239,000 246,000 253,000 WC-99013 Sewer / Manhole Rehab.1,142,571 100,000 (400,000) (24,550) 818,021 673,161 100,000 100,000 100,000 100,000 100,000 Subtotal, Ongoing Projects 1,414,952 318,000 (400,000) (37,534) 1,295,418 718,786 375,000 382,000 389,000 396,000 403,000 CUSTOMER CONNECTIONS (FEE FUNDED) WC-80020 Sewer System Extensions 76,638 361,000 (250,000) (98,488) 89,150 - 372,000 383,000 394,000 405,000 416,000 Subtotal, Customer Connections 76,638 361,000 (250,000) (98,488) 89,150 - 372,000 383,000 394,000 405,000 416,000 GRAND TOTAL 11,169,407 989,000 (650,000) (1,843,577) 9,664,829 3,619,192 4,067,000 4,185,000 4,306,000 4,421,000 4,540,500 Funding Sources Connection Fees 750,000 (250,000) 871,000 894,000 917,000 940,000 957,800 Funded by Rates and Other Revenue 628,000 (400,000) 3,695,000 3,802,000 3,912,000 4,016,000 4,124,500 CIP-RELATED RESERVES DETAIL 6/30/2013 (Actual)12/31/2013 Reappropriations 8,442,650 6,045,637 Commitments 2,726,756 3,619,192 WASTEWATER COLLECTION UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 20 | P a g e APPENDIX C : WASTEWATER COLLECTIO N UTILITY RESERVES MANAGEMENT PRACTICES The following reserves management practices shall be used whe n developing the Wastewater Collection Utility Financial Plan: Section 1. Definitions a) “Financial Planning Period” – The Financial Planning Period is the range of future fiscal years covered by the Financial Plan. For example, if the Financial Plan delivered in conjunction with the FY 2015 budget includes projections for FY 2015 to FY 2019, FY 2015 to FY 2019 would be the Financial Planning Period. b) “Fund Balance” – As used in these Reserves Management Practices, Fund Balance refers to the Utility’s Unrestricted Net Assets. c) “Net Assets” - The Government Accounting Standards Board defines a Utility’s Net Assets as the difference between its assets and liabilities. d) “Unrestricted Net Assets” - The portion of the Utility’s Net Assets not invested in capital assets (net of related debt) or restricted for debt service or other restricted purposes. Section 2. Reserves The Wastewater Collection Utility’s Fund Balance is reserved for the following purposes: a) For existing contracts, as described in Section 3 (Reserve for Commitments) b) For operating and capital budgets reappropriated from previous years, as described in Section 4 (Reserve for Reappropriations) c) For future year expenditure on the Wastewater Collection Utility’s Capital Improvement Program (CIP), as described in Section 5 (CIP Reserve) d) For rate stabilization, as described in Section 6 (Rate Stabilization Reserve) e) For operating contingencies, as described in Section 7 (Operations Reserve) f) Any funds not included in the other reserves will be considered Unassigned Reserves and shall be returned to ratepayers or assigned a specific purpose as described in Section 8 (Unassigned Reserves). Section 3. Reserve for Commitments At the end of each fiscal year the Reserve for Commitments will be set to an amount equal to the total remaining spending authority for all contracts in force for the Wastewater Collection Utility at that time. Section 4. Reserve for Reappropriations At the end of each fiscal year the Reserve for Reappropriations will be set to an amount equal to the amount of all remaining capital and non-capital budgets that will be reappropriated to the following fiscal year in accordance with Palo Alto Municipal Code Section 2.28.090. WASTEWATER COLLECTION UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 21 | P a g e Section 5. CIP Reserve Funds may be added to or withdrawn from the CIP Reserve by action of the City Council and held for future year expenditure on the Wastewater Collection Utility’s CIP Program. Withdrawal of funds from the CIP Reserve requires Council action. If there are funds in the CIP Reserve at the end of any fiscal year, any subsequent Wastewater Collection Utility Financial Plan must result in the withdrawal of all funds from this Reserve by the end of the Financial Planning Period. Section 6. Rate Stabilization Reserve Funds may be added to the Rate Stabilization Reserve by action of the City Council and held to manage the trajectory of future year rate increases. Withdrawal of funds from the Rate Stabilization Reserve requires Council action. If there are funds in the Rate Stabilization Reserve at the end of any fiscal year, any subsequent Wastewater Collection Utility Financial Plan must result in the withdrawal of all funds from this Reserve by the end of the Financial Planning Period. Section 7. Operations Reserve The Operations Reserve is used to manage normal variations in costs and as a reserve for contingencies. Any portion of the Wastewater Collection Utility’s Fund Balance not included in the reserves described in Section 3 to Section 6 above will be included in the Operations Reserve unless this reserve has reached its maximum level as set forth in Section 7(d) below. Staff will manage the Operations Reserve according to the following practices: a) The following guideline levels are set forth for the Operations Reserve. These gui deline levels are calculated for each fiscal year of the Financial Planning Period based on the levels of Operations and Maintenance (O&M) and commodity expense forecasted for that year in the Financial Plan. Minimum Level 60 days of O&M and commodity expense Target Level 105 days of O&M and commodity expense Maximum Level 150 days of O&M and commodity expense b) Minimum Level: If, at the end of any fiscal year, the funds remaining in the Operations Reserve are lower than the minimum level set forth above, staff shall present a plan to the City Council to replenish the reserve. The plan shall be delivered within six months of the end of the fiscal year, and shall, at a minimum, result in the reserve reaching its minimum level by the end of the following fiscal year. For example, if the Operati ons Reserve is below its minimum level at the end of FY 2014, staff must present a plan by December 31, 2014 to return the reserve to its minimum level by June 30, 2015. In addition, staff may present, and the Council may adopt, an alternative plan that t akes longer than one year to replenish the reserve. c) Target Level: If, at the end of any fiscal year, the Operations Reserve is higher or lower than the target level, any Financial Plan created for the Wastewater Collection Utility shall be designed to return the Operations Reserve to its target level within four years. d) Maximum Level: If, at any time, the Operations Reserve reaches its maximum level, no funds may be added to this Reserve. Any further increase in the Wastewater Collection WASTEWATER COLLECTION UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 22 | P a g e Utility’s Fund Balance shall be automatically included in the Unassigned Reserve described in Section 8, below. Section 8. Unassigned Reserve If the Operations Reserve reaches its maximum level, any further additions to the Wastewater Collection Utility’s Fund Balance will be held in the Unassigned Reserve. If there are any funds in the Unassigned Reserve at the end of any fiscal year, the next Financial Plan presented to the City Council must include a plan to assign them to a specific purpose or return them to the Wastewater Collection Utility ratepayers by the end of the first fiscal year of the next Financial Planning Period. For example, if the re were funds in the Unassigned Reserves at the end of FY 2015, and the next Financial Planning Period is FY 2016 through FY 2020, the Financial Plan shall include a plan to return or assign any funds in the Unassigned Reserve by the end of FY 2016. Staff may present an alternative plan that retains these funds or returns them over a longer period of time. WASTEWATER COLLECTION UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 23 | P a g e APPENDIX D : WASTEWATER COLLECTIO N DEBT SERVICE DETAILS The Wastewater Collection Utility currently makes payment on its share of one bond issuance, the 1999 Utility Revenue Bonds, Series A, which is due to be retired in 2024. This $17.7 million issuance refinanced various earlier Storm Drain, Wastewater Treatment, and Wastewater Collection Utility bond issuances. The Wastewater Collection Utility’s share of the issuance was roughly $1.9 million, which represented the second refinancing of the remaining principal of a 1990 bond issuance that itself was a refinancing of a 1985 issuance that financed a variety of improvements to the sewer system. The cost of debt service for the Wastewater Collection Utility’s share of this bond issuance for the financial forecast period is as follows: Table 11: Wastewater Collection Utility Debt Service ($000) FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 1999 Utility Revenue Bonds, Series A 129 128 129 128 128 128 The 1999 Utility Revenue Bonds include two covenants stating that 1) the Wastewater Collection Utility will maintain a debt coverage ratio of 125% of debt service, and 2) that the City will maintain “Available Reserves”10 equal to five times the annual debt service. The current financial plan maintains compliance with both covenants throughout the forecast period. Compliance with covenant one is shown below in Table 12, below. Due to the small size of the annual debt service payment for these bonds, the Wastewater Collection Utility’s Operations Reserve alone more than satisfies the second covenant at more than 30 times annual debt service throughout the forecast period. Table 12: Debt Service Coverage Ratio ($000) FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 Revenues 16,601 16,806 17,862 19,032 20,297 21,605 Expenses (Excl. CIP and Debt Service) (14,169) (14,248) (14,839) (15,498) (16,187) (16,909) Net Revenues 2,432 2,558 3,023 3,534 4,110 4,696 Debt Service 129 128 129 128 128 128 Coverage Ratio 1885% 1998% 2343% 2761% 3211% 3669% The Wastewater Collection Utility’s reserves (but not its net revenues) are also considered security for the Storm Drain and Wastewater Treatment Utilities’ shares of the debt service on the 1999 bonds. Throughout the term of the bonds there remains a small risk that the Wastewater Collection Utility’s reserves could be called upon to make a debt service payment on behalf of one of those utilities if it cannot meet its debt service obligations. Staff does not 10 Available Reserves as defined in the 1999 Utility Revenue Bonds included reserves for the Water, Wastewater Treatment, Wastewater Collection, Refuse, Storm Drain, Electric, and Gas Utilities WASTEWATER COLLECTION UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 24 | P a g e foresee this occurring based on the current financial condition of those utilities. If the Wastewater Collection Utility’s reserves were used this way, any amounts advanced would have to be repaid by the borrowing utility. One other bond series is secured by the net revenues (but not the reserves) of the Wastewater Collection Utility. The 1995 Series A Utility Revenue Bonds issued for the Storm Drain utility was secured by the net revenues of the City’s “Enterprise,” which was defined as the City’s water, gas, wastewater, storm drain, and electric utilities, and are senior to the 1999 bonds referenced above. Debt service payments of roughly $680,000 per year are made on the 1995 Series A bonds by the City’s Storm Drain Utility, and staff does not currently foresee any risk of that utility being unable to make payment. WASTEWATER COLLECTION UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN APPENDIX E : SAMPLE OF WASTEWATER COLLECTIO N OUTREACH MATERIALS WATER UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN FY 2015 TO FY 20 21 TABLE OF CONTENTS Definitions and Abbreviations ............................................................................................... 2 Executive Summary ............................................................................................................... 2 Current State of the Utility .................................................................................................... 3 Section I. Utility Overview ........................................................................................................... 3 Section II. Current Rates and Competitiveness ........................................................................... 4 Section III. Rate Design ............................................................................................................... 6 Section IV. Current Utility Financial Status ................................................................................. 7 Section V. Status of Reserves ...................................................................................................... 8 Section VI. Debt Service .............................................................................................................. 9 Looking Back ....................................................................................................................... 10 Section VII. Background ............................................................................................................ 10 Section VIII. Historical Expenses and Revenues ........................................................................ 11 Looking Forward .................................................................................................................. 12 Section IX. Seven Year Financial Forecast ................................................................................. 12 1. Overview ................................................................................................................... 12 2. Water Purchase Costs ............................................................................................... 13 3. Operations ................................................................................................................ 13 4. Capital Improvement Program (CIP) .......................................................................... 14 Section X. Revenue Requirement and Revenue Sources ........................................................... 15 Section XI. Risk Assessment ...................................................................................................... 17 Section XII. Communications Plan ............................................................................................ 18 Appendices ......................................................................................................................... 19 Appendix A: Water Utility Financial Forecast Detail ................................................................. 20 Appendix B: Water Utility Capital Improvement Program (CIP) Detail ..................................... 21 Appendix C: Water Utility Reserves Management Practices ..................................................... 23 Appendix D: Water Utility Debt Service Details ......................................................................... 26 Appendix E: Description of Water Utility Cost Categories ......................................................... 28 Appendix F: Sample of Water Utility Outreach Communications ............................................. 29 WATER UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 2 | P a g e DEFINITIONS AND ABBR EVIATIONS BAWSCA: Bay Area Water Supply and Conservation Agency CCF: one hundred cubic feet, the standard unit of measurement for water delivered to water customers. Equal to roughly 748 gallons. CIP: Capital Improvement Program CPAU: City of Palo Alto Utilities Department O&M: Operations and Maintenance SFPUC: San Francisco Public Utilities Commission SFWD: San Francisco Water Department WSIP: the SFPUC’s Water System Improvement Program to seismically strengthen the Hetch Hetchy regional water system. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This document presents a Financial Plan for the City’s Water Utility for the next seven years. The seven-year time frame is meant to show the stabilization of water purchase costs in FY 2020, when the last debt associated with the San Francisco Public Utility Commission’s (SFPUC’s) Water System Improvement Program (WSIP) is projected to be issued. The City’s Financial Plan provides revenues to cover the costs of operating the utility safely over that time while adequately investing for the future. It also addresses the financial risks facing the utility over the short term and long term, and includes measures to mitigate and manage those risks. Over the next seven fiscal years staff projects that the Water Utility will see water purchase costs rising 9.5% per year through FY 2020. Operations costs are projected to rise at roughly 3% per year. Capital Improvement Program (CIP) costs are assumed to increase by 9.5% per year on average in this Financial Plan, but there is significant uncertainty in these projections. Costs per mile of main are increasing, and a 25-year main replacement program initiated in 1993 is nearing completion. CPAU will initiate a master planning process in FY 2015 to re-evaluate the current state of the distribution system and determine the necessary rate of main replacement in future years. This could result in substantially higher CIP expenses than are currently forecasted. To match revenues to these rising costs, the Financial Plan includes the rate trajectory shown in Table 1. This trajectory includes a 0% rate increase in FY 2015. While there are uncertainties regarding future CIP costs (pending the completion of the distribution system master plan, slated for FY 2015), as well as the potential for the SFPUC establishing mandatory restrictions in water consumption at their April meeting, the utility currently has adequate reserves to defer a rate increase at this time. This will allow CPAU to wait until the distribution master planning study is complete to gain more certainty about future CIP costs. For FY 2016 to FY 2020, rates are projected to increase 5% to 7% each year. After that, rate increases are expected to reflect inflation. Each annual increase during FY 2016 to FY 2020 is WATER UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 3 | P a g e equivalent to an increased cost of $4.00 to 5.00 per month for a median residential customer’s water bill. Table 1: Projected Water Rate Trajectory for FY 2015 to FY 2019 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 0% 7% 6% 6% 6% 5% 1% This Financial Plan includes the Water Utility Reserves Management Practices, which describes the various reserves held by the Water Utility, their purposes, and guidelines for managing them. The Reserves Management Practices make the following changes to the utility’s existing reserves structure: 1. The addition of an Operations Reserve, a CIP Reserve, and an Unassigned Reserve 2. The merger of the Emergency Plant Replacement Reserve into the new Operations Reserve Under this plan, the initial funding for the Operations Reserve will be $8.6 million, $7.6 million from the Rate Stabilization Reserve, and $1 million from the Emergency Plant Replacement Reserve. With this initial funding the Operations Reserve will be at its target level. In addition, a $6 million transfer from the Rate Stabilization Reserve to the CIP Reserve preserves funding for future CIP projects that may be identified during the master planning process. CURRENT STATE OF THE UTILITY SECTION I. UTILITY OVERVIEW The City of Palo Alto’s Water Utility provides water service to the residents and businesses of Palo Alto, plus a handful of residential customers not in Palo Alto (Los Altos Hills, primarily). Nearly 20,300 customers are connected to the water system, approximately 16,500 (81%) of which are separately metered residential customers and 3,800 (19%) of which are commercial, master-metered residential, irrigation and fire service customers. The use of water is fundamental in people’s daily lives. Most individuals require a modest amount of water for drinking, cooking, bathing and general cleaning, as winter time usage levels can attest to. A large measure of Palo Alto’s water usage is used for irrigation, and that amount is heavily weather dependent. Therefore, there is significant variability in the amount of water that is demanded from the system, month to month and year to year. To deliver water to its customers, the utility owns roughly 233 miles of mains (which transport the water from the SFPUC meters at the City’s borders to the customer’s service laterals and meters), eight wells (to be used in emergencies), five water storage reservoirs (also for emergency purposes) and several tanks used to moderate pressure and deal with peaks in flow and demand (due to fire suppression, heavy usage times, etc.). These represent the vast majority of the infrastructure used to distribute water in Palo Alto. The City of Palo Alto’s Utilities Department (CPAU) conducts a water main replacement program to replace mains over time as they deteriorate or to increase capacity. CIP expense accounts for around six percent of WATER UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 4 | P a g e the utility’s expenditures, though CIP spending has varied substantially from year to year recently due to the seismic rehabilitation of Palo Alto’s emergency water supply system. In addition to its CIP, CPAU performs various maintenance activities on the water system. These include inspecting and repairing water mains, laterals and meters, monitoring water quality, monitoring the different pressure zones, and building and replacing water laterals and mains for new or redeveloped buildings. The utility also shares the costs of other operational activities (such as customer service, billing, equipment maintenance, and street restoration) with the City’s other utilities. These maintenance and operations expenses, as well as associated administration, debt service, rent, and other costs, make up just under half of the utility’s expenses. The Water Utility purchases all of the water it delivers from the SFPUC, which owns and operates the Hetch Hetchy reservoir in Yosemite, CA. CPAU is one of several agencies that purchase water from the SFPUC, all of whom are members of the Bay Area Water Supply and Conservation Agency (BAWSCA). Palo Altans use roughly 7% of the water delivered by the SFPUC to BAWSCA member agencies. Purchase costs make nearly half of the Water Utility’s expenses. SECTION II. CURRENT RATES AND CO MPETITIVENESS The current rates were adopted July 1, 2013, when CPAU increased water rates by 7%. Table 2, below, summarizes the current rates for all customer classes. CPAU has five rate schedules: one for separately metered residents (W-1), one for commercial and master-metered multi-family residential customers (W-4), and specific schedules for irrigation-only services (W-7), services to fire sprinkler systems in buildings and private hydrants (W-3), and for service to fire hydrant rental meters used for construction (W-2). All customers pay a monthly customer charge, based on the size of their inlet meter. All customers are also charged for each CCF (one hundred cubic feet) of water used. Separately metered residential customers are charged on a tiered basis, with the first 0.2 CCF/day (6 CCF for a 30 day billing period) at a lower price, and all other units used at a higher rate. All other customers, including commercial customers, pay a uniform price for each CCF used. WATER UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 5 | P a g e Table 3 shows the current water bills for residential customers compared to what they would be under surrounding communities’ rate schedules. CPAU has the highest monthly bills of the group, although bills for smaller water users are less than in some surrounding communities . Table 4 shows the annual average monthly water bill for commercial customers for various water usage levels. Redwood City is notable in that their irrigation rates are set on a budget basis, and as such each parcel has a unique baseline value. For purposes of this comparison, the budget was assumed to be equal to the usage amount . Table 2: Water Rates (Effective 7/1/2013) W-1 (Separately Metered Res.) W-4 (Commercial/ Master- metered Residential) W-7 (Irrigation) W-3 (Fire) W-2 (Hydrant) Meter Size Monthly Service Charge ($/month based on meter size) 5/8” 14.67 14.67 14.67 50.00 3/4” 19.51 19.51 19.51 1” 29.18 29.18 29.18 1 ½” 53.37 53.37 53.37 2” 82.39 82.39 82.39 3.03 3” 174.29 174.29 174.29 125.00 4” 309.72 309.72 309.72 18.78 6” 633.80 633.80 633.80 54.55 8” 1,165.86 1,165.86 1,165.86 116.24 10” 1,843.02 1,843.02 1,843.02 209.03 12” 2,423.45 2,423.45 2,423.45 337.65 Volumetric Rate ($ / CCF) Uniform 6.15 7.52 10.00 6.15 Tier 1 4.99 Tier 2 7.58 Table 3: Residential Monthly Water Bill Comparison Residential monthly bill comparison ($/month) * As of February 1, 2014 Usage (CCF/month) Palo Alto Menlo Park Redwood City Mountain View Los Altos Santa Clara Hayward 4 34.63 35.20 36.78 26.14 26.80 13.56 23.60 (Winter median) 7 52.19 50.78 48.08 40.30 36.65 23.73 39.65 (Annual median) 9 67.35 61.17 56.18 49.74 43.24 30.51 50.35 (Summer median) 14 105.25 88.38 80.30 73.34 60.50 47.46 78.98 25 188.63 148.89 153.23 153.56 98.89 84.75 151.58 * All comparisons using 5/8” meter size WATER UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 6 | P a g e SECTION III. RATE DESIGN The Water Utility’s rates are evaluated and implemented in compliance with the cost of service requirements and procedural rules set forth in the California Constitution under Article 13 (per Proposition 218). Current rates were structured based on the methodology from the March 2012 Palo Alto Water Cost of Service & Rate Study by Raftelis Financial Consultants, Inc 1. Staff plans to review and update this cost of service study in 2 to 3 years, unless any major changes occur to the utility’s operations or customer base that would necessitate an earlier study. Before conducting any new cost of service study, staff will review current rates and the scope of the study with the Utilities Advisory Commission (UAC) and Council to determine UAC and Council policy priorities. California is currently experiencing a severe drought. On January 31, 2014, the SFPUC requested a 10% voluntary reduction. In April, the SFPUC will announce to BAWSCA members whether they will face mandatory restrictions. Currently, Palo Alto is following a Stage 1 drought response as outlined in the City’s Urban Water Management Plan,2 which seeks to achieve 10% voluntary reductions through outreach and increased rebates for water conservation measures. If the SFPUC asked for mandatory reductions, the City would likely follow a Stage 2 response, seeking 10 to 20% mandatory reductions in usage. In addition to doing outreach and offering higher rebates, d rought rate schedules would be imposed and the City would increase its enforcement of the water use ordinance. Staff is not anticipating the need for a Stage 3 response (20 to 35% reduction) or Stage 4 response (35 to 50%) at this time. CPAU is also investigating the feasibility of separating out its wholesale water purchase costs on the retail rate schedules. Doing so would allow the utility to use a simpler notification process 1 Staff Report ID#2676, Finance Committee, April 18, 2012 2 Staff report ID#1688, City Council, 6/13/2011 Table 4: Commercial Monthly Water Bill Comparison Commercial/Multi-Family and Irrigation bill comparison ($/month) As of February 1, 2014 Usage (CCF/month) Palo Alto Redwood City Menlo Park Hayward Mountain View Los Altos Santa Clara Commercial (W-4) (5/8” meters) (Annual median) 12 88.47 72.70 81.42 71.40 67.44 55.58 40.68 (Annual average) 64 408.27 409.75 371.96 354.80 312.88 250.20 216.96 Irrigation (W-7) (1 ½” meters) (Winter median) 9 121 167 100 76 86 73 31 (Summer median) 37 332 313 256 229 218 178 125 (Winter average) 56 474 412 362 332 308 249 190 (Summer average) 199 1,550 1,157 1,161 1,121 982 785 675 WATER UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 7 | P a g e when changing rates solely to pass through increased wholesale water costs . It would also make the reason for such rate increases more transparent to customers. SECTION IV. CURRENT UTILITY FINANCIAL STATUS In FY 2013, water purchase costs represented nearly half of the Water Utility’s costs (47%), with O&M costs being the next largest expense (21%), then Other costs (debt service, rent and transfers) at 17%, followed by administration (9%) and CIP costs (6%), as shown in Figure 2. These figures are also shown by expenditure category in Figure 1. The utility’s revenue in FY 2013 was primarily from water charges (92%), with the remainder from capacity and connection fees (5%), and other sources (3%). Table 5 contains a summary of the Water Utility’s financial outlook for FY 2014 as of Q2. Water sales have been higher than budget estimates due to dry weather conditions. However, with voluntary restrictions called for the by SFPUC (and the potential for larger cutbacks should further precipitation fail to arrive), water sales are projected to decrease by the end of the year. SFPUC rates for FY 2014 are lower than budget projections, however. This was due to a temporary discount of the water rates to return excess funds collected by the SFPUC in the previous fiscal year. As a result, despite lower consumption, water purchase costs are estimated to be $1.7 million below budget. Purchase costs and sales revenues may end up higher than forecasted if customers do not make the requested voluntary reductions. The increases to “Other revenue” reflect higher connection fee income to date. Included in “Other expenses” are proposed CIP cost increases of $3.97 million dollars. These are related to a budget adjustment to a water main replacement project as well as funding for main replacements as part of the California Avenue Streetscape Project. Figure 2: FY 2013 Costs by Activity Water Purchases, 47% CIP, 6% Admin/ Overhead, 9% Operations , 21% Other, 17% Figure 1: FY 2013 Costs by Category Water Purchases, 47% CIP, 6% Admin/ Overhead, 9% Salaries/ Benefits, 17% Supplies, Equip, & Other, 20% WATER UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 8 | P a g e Table 5: Projected Water Utility Net Revenue, FY 2014 Water - Operating Activity All figures in thousands ($ 000’s) Adopted Budget FY 2014 Unaudited Actuals Jul 13-Dec13 Projected Activity Jan 14-Jun 14 Projected FY 2014 Activity Variance to Budget Net Sales to date * 36,781 22,403 14,378 36,781 - Other revenues to date 2,598 2,452 432 2,883 285 Purchase costs to date (16,708) (8,696) (6,299) (14,995) 1,713 Other expenses to date ** (22,390) (19,829) (5,122) (24,951) (2,560) Total 281 (3,670) 3,389 (281) (562) * Includes misc. sales, adjustments, discounts, and bad debt ** Includes reserve transfers, salaries, allocated charges, other misc. expenses, and encumbrances SECTION V. STATUS OF RESERVES Table 6, below, shows that the projected balance of the Water Utility’s reserves at the end of FY 2014 is $33.4 million. As detailed in Appendix C: Water Utility Reserves Management Practices and in Table 6, this plan includes changes to the structure of the utility’s reserves, including: 1. Adding an Operations Reserve, a CIP Reserve, and an Unassigned Reserve; and 2. Merging the Emergency Plant Replacement Reserve into the Operations Reserve. The additions of an Operations Reserve, a CIP Reserve, and an Unassigned Reserve will add transparency and simplify reserves management by providing separate reserves for various functions that are currently all served by the Rate Stabilization Reserve. The Operations Reserve will be used to manage contingencies and absorb normal year-to-year cost and Table 6: Projected Water Utility Reserves, 6/30/2014 Projected Reserve Levels (Current Reserves Structure) ($000) Proposed Reallocation of Reserves ($000) Projected Reserve Levels (Proposed Reserves Structure) ($000) Reserve for Re-appropriations * 10,423 - 10,423 Reserve for Commitments * 4,976 - 4,976 Emergency Plant Replacement 1,000 -1,000 (closed) CIP Reserve (new) 6,000 6,000 Rate Stabilization Reserve 16,991 -13,556 3,435 Operations Reserve (new) 8,556 8,556 Unassigned Reserve (new) - 0 Total 33,390 0 33,390 * Balances at the end of FY 2013. Final FY 2014 to be determined. WATER UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 9 | P a g e revenue variances. The CIP Reserve will hold funds for expenditure on future CIP projects which are larger than usual, but not expected to be debt funded. The Rate Stabilization Reserve will be used to smooth the transition to higher rates. If the utility accumulates reserves that are not immediately designated for a specific purpose, these will be placed in the Unassigned Reserve until those funds are either designated for a specific purpose or returned to ratepayers. Creating separate CIP, Rate Stabilization, and Unassigned Reserves allows the utility to set minimum and maximum guideline levels for the Operations Reserve and set forth clear actions to be taken when it is over or under those levels. If funds are required for a specific purpose (for example, a future CIP project) these can be held in a separate reserve (in this example, the CIP Reserve). Without a separate reserve, those funds would end up in the Operations Reserve and would cause it to exceed its maximum guideline, making it difficult to treat the maximum guideline as a clear limit on the size of the reserve. This proposal also adds transparency, since the public will be able to see the various purposes for which the utility is holding reserves. This plan also involves merging the existing Emergency Plant Replacement Reserve into the Operations Reserve. Currently the Emergency Plant Replacement Reserve holds $1 million, enough to pay the City’s insurance deductible in the event of a loss of utility equipment due to an insurable loss. Staff believes that even at minimum levels the Operations Reserve has adequate funding to cover the insurance deductible, making the Emergency Plant Replacement Reserve duplicative. To manage uncertainty in future CIP funding levels, this plan allocates $6 million to the CIP Reserve from the Rate Stabilization Reserve. This funding amount will be revised following the completion of the water distribution system master plan. The Operations Reserve’s initial funding will be $8.6 million, the target level set forth in Appendix C: Water Utility Reserves Management Practices (90 days of commodity and operations and maintenance (O&M) expense), with $7.6 million transferred from the Rate Stabilization Reserve and $1 million from the Emergency Plant Replacement Reserve. The Rate Stabilization Reserve will retain $3.4 million to be drawn down over future years. SECTION VI. DEBT SERVICE The Water Utility’s annual debt service is roughly $3.2 million per year. This is related to two bond issuances, one requiring payments through 2026, the other through 2035. The first issuance, the 2011 Utility Revenue Refunding Bond, Series A, was a joint issuance between the Water and Gas Utilities refinancing the 2002 Utility Revenue Bonds, Series A, which was issued to finance various capital improvements for both systems. The second, larger issuance is the 2009 Water Revenue Bond, Series A (Direct Payment Build America bond) used to finance construction of the Emergency Water Supply and Storage project (the El Camino Reservoir, new wells, rehabilitation of existing wells and tanks, etc.) The City is in compliance with all covenants on both bonds. Additional detail is provided in Appendix D. WATER UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 10 | P a g e LOOKING BACK SECTION VII. BACKGROUND The Water Utility was established on May 9, 1896, two years after the City was incorporated. Voters of the 750 person community approved a $40,000 bond to buy local, private water companies who operated one or more shallow wells to serve the nearby residents. The City grew and the well system expanded until nine wells were in operation in 1932. Palo Alto began receiving water from the San Francisco Water Department (SFWD) in 1937 to supplement these sources. A 1950 engineering report noted, “the capricious alternation of well waters and the San Francisco Water Department water… has made satisfactory service to the average customer practically impossible”. By 1950, only eight wells were still in operation. Despite this, groundwater production increased in the 1950’s leading to lower groundwater tables and water quality concerns. In 1962, a survey of water softening costs to City customers determined that the City should purchase 100% of its water supply needs from the SFWD. A 20 -year contract was signed with San Francisco, and the City’s wells were placed in standby condition. The SFWD later became known as the SFPUC. Since 1962 (except for some very short periods) the City’s entire supply of potable water has come from the SFPUC. As the City grew, so did the number of mains in the system. The system of mains expanded along with the town, while existing sections of the system continued to age. In the mid-1980s, the number of breaks in cast iron mains installed during the 1940s and earlier started to accelerate. In FY 1994, to combat deterioration of older sections of the system, an analysis of cost effective system improvements was performed and the rate of main replacement was increased from one mile per year to three. A plan to replace 75 miles of deficient mains within 25 years was begun. In 1999, a study of system reliability concluded that major upgrades were needed to the distribution system to provide adequate water supply during a natural disaster. This ultimately resulted in the $40 million Emergency Water Supply and Storage Project, still underway, which involved a new underground reservoir in El Camino Park, the siting and construction of several emergency supply wells, and the upgrade of several existing wells and the Mayfield pump station. At the same time that CPAU was evaluating the reliability of its own system, the SFPUC, in consultation with BAWSCA members, was evaluating the reliability of the Hetch Hetchy water system, which crosses two major fault lines between the Sierras and the Bay Area. That evaluation concluded that major upgrades to the system were required. This planning process culminated in the SFPUC’s $4.6 billion Water System Improvement Project (WSIP), which is ongoing. WATER UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 11 | P a g e SECTION VIII. HISTORICAL EXPENSES AND REVENUES Table 7 shows the Water Utility’s expenses and revenues for the past five years. Water supplies made up 33% of total expenses in FY 2009, but have been increasing by 18.4% per year on average, rising to 47% of total expenses in FY 2013. Total costs for this utility have risen 8% on average over the last four years, mainly due to increasing water supply costs. Excluding water supply, CIP and debt service costs (the 2009 bond resulted in large financing costs starting in 2010), costs for this utility have increased by 5% annually on average since 2009. Rate increases occurred in all years except 2011, with sales dropping in 2010 . Connection and capacity fee income has also been on the rise. One item of note is the negative interest earned in FY 2013, which represents a decrease in the market value of the City’s investment portfolio that accounting rules require the City to recognize at the end of each fiscal year. Given that the City holds its investments to maturity these “mark to market” gains and losses do not impact the utility’s long term financial position. Table 7: Historical Expenses, Water Collection Utility ($000) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 6 REVENUE 7 Utilities Retail Sales 25,198 24,541 24,821 30,674 34,765 8 Service Connection & Capacity Fees 848 694 1,146 1,445 1,918 9 Other Revenues plus Transfers In 1,640 1,951 1,706 995 3,196 10 Interest & Gain or Loss on Investment 1,788 1,572 727 673 -205 11 Sub Total 29,474 28,758 28,400 33,787 39,674 12 13 Total Sources of Funds 29,474 28,758 28,400 33,787 39,674 14 OPERATING EXPENSE 15 Water Supply Purchases 8,443 9,061 10,678 14,889 16,605 16 Administration 2,162 2,168 2,559 2,774 3,181 17 Customer Service 1,436 1,372 1,476 1,545 1,585 18 Engineering (Operating)333 263 247 301 339 19 Operations & Maintenance 4,040 4,257 4,885 4,901 4,944 20 Resource Management 394 486 576 553 558 21 Debt Service & Other Related 426 1,589 2,143 2,064 1,950 22 Rent 1,919 2,107 2,122 2,157 1,912 23 Transfers Out *4,554 282 442 104 2,055 24 CIP (Non Bond)2,605 6,189 5,348 4,369 2,345 25 Sub Total 26,312 27,775 30,476 33,657 35,473 26 27 Total Uses of Funds 26,312 27,775 30,476 33,657 35,473 28 29 Into/ (Out of) Reserves 3,162 983 (2,077)131 4,201 Fiscal Year WATER UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 12 | P a g e LOOKING FORWARD SECTION IX. SEVEN YEAR FINANCIAL FOREC AST 1. OVERVIEW Staff has prepared a forecast of costs and revenues through FY 2021. As shown in Table 8 (and Appendix A), the Water Utility’s total costs are projected to increase by roughly 3.5% to 4% per year on average for FY 2015 through FY 2021. The forecast assumes a sales revenue decrease in FY 2015 due to voluntary water use restrictions. Although most costs are rising at only 4% per year, revenues are currently below costs in a normal year. Also noticeable are the lower than budgeted purchase costs for FY 2014 (due to the SFPUC water rates being much lower than forecast), and higher CIP spending in FY 2014 as well (the result of new funding for the California Avenue project, as well as increased costs for existing water main replacement projects). Over the last several years actual costs for operations, maintenance, and CIP have been lower, likely due to the economic downturn, which led to lower costs for services and materials. Staff is starting to see indications that this trend is reversing. Prices are rising for contract services and materials, and this indicates that the utility will see rising costs in the future. If costs for operations, maintenance, and CIP increase more quickly than projected in this plan, either due to the improving economy or other factors, larger rate increases may be required. Table 8: Seven Year Water Utility Financial Forecast Summary ($000) Actual Adopted Projected 2013 2014 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 1 % CHANGE IN RETAIL RATE 15%7%7%0%7%6%6%6%5%1% 2 SALES UNITS (THOUSAND CCFs)4,880 4,808 4,808 4,300 4,751 4,798 4,845 4,893 4,941 4,990 3 REVENUE 4 Utilities Retail Sales 36,062 36,781 36,781 33,001 38,973 41,675 44,651 47,875 50,709 51,706 5 Service Connection & Capacity Fees 1,918 868 1,153 1,100 1,117 1,136 1,156 1,176 1,198 1,219 6 Other Revenues plus Transfers In 1,877 1,048 1,048 1,055 1,063 1,071 1,082 1,093 1,075 1,075 7 Interest & Gain or Loss on Investment -218 682 682 487 589 623 722 718 714 694 8 Sub Total 39,639 39,379 39,664 35,643 41,741 44,506 47,610 50,863 53,695 54,694 9 CIP Bond Proceeds / Reserve 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Total Sources of Funds 39,639 39,379 39,664 35,643 41,741 44,506 47,610 50,863 53,695 54,694 11 OPERATING EXPENSE 12 Water Supply Purchases 16,605 16,708 14,995 16,521 19,789 20,016 21,248 24,208 25,664 24,811 13 Administration 2,423 2,793 2,490 2,583 2,660 2,745 2,833 2,924 3,018 3,115 14 Customer Service 1,585 1,988 1,740 1,806 1,858 1,932 2,008 2,088 2,160 2,234 15 Engineering (Operating)339 356 294 305 314 326 339 351 365 379 16 Operations & Maintenance 4,944 5,851 5,111 6,345 6,530 6,777 7,033 7,300 7,578 7,867 17 Resource Management 558 625 549 569 586 608 631 655 680 705 18 Debt Service & Other Related 3,219 3,220 3,220 3,219 3,223 3,219 3,223 3,221 3,221 3,221 19 Rent 1,912 1,969 1,969 2,028 2,089 2,151 2,216 2,282 2,351 2,421 20 Transfers Out *-3,521 362 362 369 376 384 391 399 407 415 21 CIP 2,345 5,201 9,171 5,045 6,779 7,013 8,228 8,224 8,470 8,724 22 Total Uses of Funds 30,409 39,073 39,901 38,790 44,204 45,170 48,149 51,653 53,913 53,893 Fiscal Year WATER UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 13 | P a g e 2. WATER P URCHASE COSTS While water itself is essentially a ‘free’ resource, resulting from snow melt in the Sierras, the cost of maintaining the reservoirs and pipelines which supply that water are not. Currently, the SFPUC is in the midst of a $4.6 billion dollar capital improvement program (the WSIP) to upgrade and seismically retrofit the regional water system. The vast majority of costs are being collected via a volumetric (per CCF) charge, rather than through monthly f ixed charges. Wholesale water rate projections are dependent on water usage, and as usage falls, the volumetric rates will necessarily rise. Figure 3 shows the SFPUC’s latest wholesale water rate projection compared to the projection from a year ago. Figure 3: Projected SFPUC rate changes Part of the reason this plan contains a seven year view for the Water Utility is to show that, based on the SFPUC’s projections, wholesale water rate increases are expected to peak in FY 2020. Until then, purchase costs are expected to rise 9.5% per year on average. 3. OPERATIONS Operations costs include the Customer Service, Operations and Maintenance, Engineering, Resource Management, and Administration categories in Table 8, above. Debt service, rent, and transfers are also included in Operations costs. WATER UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 14 | P a g e Appendix E: Description of Water Utility Cost Categories includes detailed descriptions of the activities associated with these cost categories. Operations costs are projected to increase by 3.5% per year, on average, over the forecast period. Underlying these projections are salary and benefit, consumer price index, and other cost projections obtained from the City’s long-range financial forecast. 4. CAPITAL IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM (CIP) The Water Utility’s CIP consists of the following programs and budgets:  The Water System Replacement/Rehabilitation Program, under which the Water Utility replaces aging water mains  Customer Connections, which covers the cost when the Water Utility installs new services or upgrades existing services at a customer’s request in response to development or redevelopment. CPAU charges a fee to these customers to cover the cost of these projects.  Ongoing Projects, which covers the cost of replacing old/under-recording meters and degraded boxes and covers, as well as the cost of capitalized tools and equipment.  One Time Projects, which cover specific, non-recurring replacement of system resources (such as water tank re-coatings) Table 9 outlines the current FY 2014 adopted budget, with actuals and remaining budget as of December 31, 2013. Also included is the five year CIP spending plan, although these figures are preliminary pending budget discussions starting in May. The ‘committed’ column repres ents open contracts for which work has not yet been completed or invoices paid . Table 9: Budgeted Water Utility CIP Spending ($000) *Includes unspent funds from previous years carried forward or reappropriated into the current fiscal year **Equal to Reserve for Reappropriations + Reserve for Commitments. The Water System Replacement and Rehabilitation Program funds the replacement of deteriorating water mains. The water system consists of over 236 miles of mains, approximately 2000 fire hydrants, and over 20,000 metered service connections spanning 9 pressure zones over a 26 square mile service area. CPAU utilizes an asset management database in conjunction with hydraulic modeling software in prioritizing capital improvements. Mains are selected by researching the maintenance history of the system and identifying those that are undersized, corroded, and subject to recurring breaks. CPAU uses a scoring system based on criticality in order to prioritize which mains to replace first, and coordinates with the Public Works street maintenance program to avoid cutting into newly repaved streets. CPAU replaces approximately 3 miles of main per year, or 1.3% of the system. Project Category Current Budget* Spending, Curr. Yr Remain. Budget Committed FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 One Time Projects 13,656 (1,579) 12,076 4,023 2,980 - - - - Water Main Replacement 6,460 (262) 6,197 374 - 4,836 4,635 6,126 6,048 Ongoing Projects 3,708 (712) 2,996 755 1,625 1,483 1,906 1,617 1,686 Customer Connections 449 (240) 209 11 450 460 473 486 500 TOTAL 24,272 (2,794) 21,478 5,163 5,055 6,779 7,014 8,228 8,234 WATER UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 15 | P a g e Costs for the water main replacement program are increasing for a variety of reasons:  Fire Code regulations now mandate fire sprinklers for new residential units. To accommodate increased fire flows, new main replacement projects require larger diameter pipe.  CPAU has switched to high-density polyethylene (HDPE) for its mains. Installation costs for this material are slightly higher, though lifecycle costs are lower, and the material performs better. Joints in distribution mains are the most likely place for failure, and sections of HDPE pipe can be fused together rather than connected with fittings. In the long run, this will reduce losses and maintenance costs.  To take full advantage of HDPE’s fusibility, CPAU is now replacing the services along with the water mains with new HDPE services. In the past, the existing services were reconnected, regardless of the material. This new practice costs more in the short run, but will provide long term benefits.  Lastly, as the economy begins to recover, costs have begun to escalate. These factors have created some uncertainty in future main replacement costs. In addition, the 25 year main replacement program initiated in 1993 is nearing completion. This makes it a good time to re-evaluate the program. CPAU will initiate a master planning process in FY 2015 to evaluate the current state of the distribution system and determine the necessary rate of main replacement in future years. This could result in higher CIP expenses than are currently forecasted. Ongoing Projects and Customer Connections are projected to cost approximately $1.8 million in FY 2015 and increase by 3.5% each year through the end of the forecast period. Actual expenses for these projects fluctuate annually depending on how many defective meters are discovered and replaced during routine maintenance, as well as how much development and redevelopment is going on that prompts the replacement or upgrade of water services. It is worth noting that property owners pay a fee for water service replacement or expansion during redevelopment, so when costs go up, so does fee revenue. Aside from customer connections, the CIP plan for FY 2015 to FY 2019 is funded by utility rates and capacity fees. The details of the plan are shown in Appendix B: Water Utility Capital Improvement Program (CIP) Detail. SECTION X. REVENUE REQUIREMENT AND REVENUE SOURCES The revenue requirement is the total amount of revenue that must be collected in order to meet the planned expenditures for the Water Utility. Costs for the Water Utility are projected to increase by 4% per year or more through FY 2020, as shown in Figure 4, below. As previously mentioned, future CIP spending levels are uncertain, and CPAU will complete a distribution system master plan in the upcoming year to determine future year CIP needs. The High Cost scenario in Figure 4 shows the necessary rate increases under a higher CIP cost scenario in which the master planning process reveals a need for accelerated main replacement and the replacement of one of the major mains in the foothills . With a 0% increase in FY 2015, matching costs to revenues by FY 2021 will require 5 to 7% increases in sales revenues each WATER UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 16 | P a g e year for FY 2016 to FY 2020. Each of the projected FY 2016 to FY 2020 rate increases will increase median residential water bills by $4.00 to $5.00 per month. Figure 4: Water Fund Revenue and Cost Projections Figure 5 illustrates how the existing reserves would be reallocated according to the proposed Reserves Management Practices and how the balances of the different reserves would change over the financial forecast period. For the Water Fund, the CIP reserve would be drawn down by FY 2019 and the Rate Stabilization Reserve would be drawn down by FY 2016. WATER UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 17 | P a g e Figure 5: Water Fund Revenue and Cost Projections SECTION XI. RISK ASSESSMENT Staff performs an annual assessment of risks for the Water Utility. For this evaluation, staff estimates the revenue shortfall due to: 1. the maximum observed budget-to-actual variance in one year during the past ten years; 2. an increase of 10% of planned system improvement CIP expenditures for the budget year; Table 10 summarizes the risk assessment calculation for the Water Utility. The Operations Reserve is projected to be adequate to manage these risks over the entire forecast period. Table 10: Water Risk Assessment ($000) FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 Total Revenue $33,001 $38,973 $41,675 $44,651 $47,875 Max. Historical Budget-to-Actual variance 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% Revenue Budget-to-Actual Risk 4,010 4,735 5,063 5,425 5,817 System Rehabilitation CIP Budget $5,045 $6,779 $7,013 $8,228 $8,224 CIP Contingency @10% 505 678 701 823 822 Total Risk Assessment value 4,514 5,413 5,765 6,248 6,639 Projected Operations Reserve Level 8,321 7,382 7,718 9,179 10,389 Projected FY 2014 year-end reserves under existing reserves structure Proposed reallocation (see Appendix C: Water Utility Reserves Management Practices) WATER UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 18 | P a g e SECTION XII. COMMUNICATIONS PLAN The FY 2015 Water Utility communications strategy covers these primary areas: water conservation, drought, rates, operations and infrastructure, and safety. Drought and water efficiency are at the forefront of today’s communications, with 10% voluntary restrictions underway and a “Keep Calm and Save Water” campaign being pushed by Customer Service and Marketing. CPAU is constantly updating its website with new information as it arises, and Staff is planning for what may be needed should the SFPUC call for mandatory cutbacks at their April announcement. There is no need for formal “rate change” communications at this time, but website and community education about rates is ongoing. Water conservation activity includes bill inserts, website pages, email blasts, and the use of social media. To keep customers apprised of the status and accomplishments of CIP projects, a network of project web pages are maintained; traffic is driven to the website via ads in publications, newspaper inserts, social media and email blasts. Safety topics are emphasized year-round and, while print materials and website pages still feature prominently, CPAU is turning the outreach emphasis to direct mail, newspaper inserts, and social media including video, cable TV, community safety/emergency preparation meetings and updates to neighborhood groups. WATER UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 19 | P a g e APPENDICES Appendix A: Water Utility Financial Forecast Detail Appendix B: Water Utility Capital Improvement Program (CIP) Detail Appendix C: Water Utility Reserves Management Practices Appendix D: Water Utility Debt Service Details Appendix E: Description of Water Utility Cost Categories Appendix F: Sample of Water Utility Outreach Communications WATER UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 20 | P a g e APPENDIX A : WATER UTILITY FINANCIAL FORECAST D ETAIL Actual Adopted Projected 2013 2014 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 1 % CHANGE IN RETAIL RATE 15%7%7%0%7%6%6%6%5%1% 2 SALES UNITS (THOUSAND CCFs)4,880 4,808 4,808 4,300 4,751 4,798 4,845 4,893 4,941 4,990 3 REVENUE 4 Utilities Retail Sales 36,062 36,781 36,781 33,001 38,973 41,675 44,651 47,875 50,709 51,706 5 Service Connection & Capacity Fees 1,918 868 1,153 1,100 1,117 1,136 1,156 1,176 1,198 1,219 6 Other Revenues plus Transfers In 1,877 1,048 1,048 1,055 1,063 1,071 1,082 1,093 1,075 1,075 7 Interest & Gain or Loss on Investment -218 682 682 487 589 623 722 718 714 694 8 Sub Total 39,639 39,379 39,664 35,643 41,741 44,506 47,610 50,863 53,695 54,694 9 CIP Bond Proceeds / Reserve 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Total Sources of Funds 39,639 39,379 39,664 35,643 41,741 44,506 47,610 50,863 53,695 54,694 11 OPERATING EXPENSE 12 Water Supply Purchases 16,605 16,708 14,995 16,521 19,789 20,016 21,248 24,208 25,664 24,811 13 Administration 2,423 2,793 2,490 2,583 2,660 2,745 2,833 2,924 3,018 3,115 14 Customer Service 1,585 1,988 1,740 1,806 1,858 1,932 2,008 2,088 2,160 2,234 15 Engineering (Operating)339 356 294 305 314 326 339 351 365 379 16 Operations & Maintenance 4,944 5,851 5,111 6,345 6,530 6,777 7,033 7,300 7,578 7,867 17 Resource Management 558 625 549 569 586 608 631 655 680 705 18 Debt Service & Other Related 3,219 3,220 3,220 3,219 3,223 3,219 3,223 3,221 3,221 3,221 19 Rent 1,912 1,969 1,969 2,028 2,089 2,151 2,216 2,282 2,351 2,421 20 Transfers Out *-3,521 362 362 369 376 384 391 399 407 415 21 CIP 2,345 5,201 9,171 5,045 6,779 7,013 8,228 8,224 8,470 8,724 22 Total Uses of Funds 30,409 39,073 39,901 38,790 44,204 45,170 48,149 51,653 53,913 53,893 23 Into/ (Out of) Reserves 9,230 306 (236)(3,146)(2,463)(664)(539)(790)(218)801 24 Ending Commitments/Reappropriations 15,401 15,401 15,401 15,401 15,401 15,401 15,401 15,401 15,401 15,401 25 Ending Plant Replacement Reserve 1,000 1,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 26 Ending CIP Reserve 0 0 6,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 2,000 0 0 0 27 Ending Rate Stabilization Reserve 17,227 17,533 3,435 524 0 0 0 0 0 0 28 Ending Operations Reserve 0 0 8,556 8,321 7,382 7,718 9,179 10,389 10,170 10,972 29 Unassigned Reserves 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 Total Unrestricted Reserves 33,628 33,935 33,392 30,246 27,783 27,119 26,580 25,790 25,572 26,373 31 Risk Assessment Value 0 4,991 0 4,514 5,413 5,765 6,248 6,639 7,008 7,154 32 Operations Reserve Guidelines 33 Min (60 Days Commodity/O&M Exp)5,704 5,547 6,152 6,272 6,562 7,139 7,470 7,425 7,615 34 Target (90 Days)8,556 8,321 9,228 9,409 9,844 10,708 11,205 11,138 11,422 35 Max (120 Days)11,408 11,094 12,304 12,545 13,125 14,278 14,940 14,850 15,230 Fiscal Year WATER UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 21 | P a g e APPENDIX B : WATER UTILITY CAPITAL IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM (CIP) DETAIL Project #Project Name Reappropriated / Carried Forward from Previous Years Current Year Funding Budget Amendments Spending, Current Year Remaining in CIP Reserve Fund Commitments FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 ONE TIME PROJECTS WS-07000 Regulation Station Imp.307,595 - - - 307,595 - - - - - - WS-07001 Water Recycling Facilities 394,518 - - (3,937) 390,581 192,338 - - - - - WS-08001 Water Reservoir Coating 2,272,154 - - - 2,272,154 - 750,000 - - - - WS-09000 Seismic Water System 4,066,673 - 500,000 - 4,566,673 - 2,230,000 - - - - WS-11001 Vacuum Excavation Equip.- - - - - - - - - - - WS-13003 GPS Equipment Upgrade 200,000 - - - 200,000 - - - - - - WS-13004 Asset Mgmt. Mobile Sys.100,000 - - - 100,000 - - - - - - WS-13006 Meter Shop Renovations 87,148 200,000 - (3,099) 284,049 209,875 - - - - - WS-08002 Emergency Water Supply 5,527,447 - - (1,572,113) 3,955,334 3,620,659 - - - - - Subtotal, One-time Projects 12,955,535 200,000 500,000 (1,579,149) 12,076,386 4,022,872 2,980,000 - - - - WATER MAIN REPLACEMENT PROGRAM WS-08017 WMR - Project 22 - - - - - - - - - - - WS-09001 WMR - Project 23 124,689 - - (11,510) 113,179 299,262 - - - - - WS-10001 WMR-Project 24 396,726 - - (185,786) 210,940 23,334 - - - - - WS-11000 WMR-Project 25 696,378 2,736,906 2,000,000 (65,185) 5,368,099 1 - - - - - WS-12001 WMR- Project 26 - 505,000 - - 505,000 51,047 - 4,396,800 - - - WS-13001 WMR - Project 27 - - - - - - - 439,680 4,111,740 - - WS-14001 WMR - Project 28 - - - - - - - - 523,000 5,568,744 - WS-15002 WMR - Project 29 - - - - - - - - - 556,874 5,498,160 WS-16001 WMR - Project 30 - - - - - - - - - - 549,816 WS-19001 WMR-Project 31 - - - - - - - - - - - Subtotal, Water Main Replacement Prog.1,217,793 3,241,906 2,000,000 (262,481) 6,197,218 373,644 - 4,836,480 4,634,740 6,125,618 6,047,976 WATER UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 22 | P a g e Appendix B: Water Utility Capital Improvement Program (CIP) Detail (Continued) Project #Project Name Reappropriated / Carried Forward from Previous Years Current Year Funding Budget Amendments Spending, Current Year Remaining in CIP Reserve Fund Commitments FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 ONGOING PROJECTS WS-80014 Services/Hydrants 15,341 229,000 - (56,091) 188,250 - 236,000 243,080 250,400 263,000 270,000 WS-80015 Water Meters 433,642 379,000 (200,000) (67,125) 545,517 279,971 386,000 393,080 400,372 407,000 415,000 WS-02014 W-G-W Utility GIS Data 57,964 275,000 - (56,618) 276,346 169,144 302,500 332,750 366,025 402,628 442,890 WS-13002 Equipment/Tools 28,132 - - - 28,132 - 50,000 50,000 411,174 50,000 50,000 WS-11003 Dist. Sys. Improvements 334,883 218,000 1,372,272 (185,272) 1,739,883 182,862 225,000 232,000 239,000 247,000 254,000 WS-11004 Supply Sys. Improvements 346,964 218,000 - (347,085) 217,879 123,131 425,000 232,000 239,000 247,000 254,000 Subtotal, Ongoing Projects 1,216,926 1,319,000 1,172,272 (712,191) 2,996,007 755,108 1,624,500 1,482,910 1,905,971 1,616,628 1,685,890 CUSTOMER CONNECTIONS (FEE FUNDED) WS-80013 Water System Extensions 8,973 440,000 - (240,135) 208,838 10,946 450,000 460,000 473,000 486,000 500,000 Subtotal, Customer Connections 8,973 440,000 - (240,135) 208,838 10,946 450,000 460,000 473,000 486,000 500,000 GRAND TOTAL 15,399,226 5,200,906 3,672,272 (2,793,956)21,478,448 5,162,570 5,054,500 6,779,390 7,013,711 8,228,246 8,233,866 Funding Sources Connection/Capacity Fees 709,000 - 878,000 899,840 921,000 943,000 960,000 Other Utility Funds (Asset Mgmt, GIS Systems)292,000 201,667 221,833 244,017 268,418 295,260 Utility Rates 5,200,906 3,672,272 3,974,833 5,657,717 5,848,694 7,016,828 6,978,606 CIP-RELATED RESERVES DETAIL 6/30/2013 (Actual)12/31/2013 Reappropriations (excl. Bond Funded)10,423,078 16,315,878 Commitments (excl. Bond Funded)4,976,148 5,162,570 WATER UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 23 | P a g e APPENDIX C : WATER UTILITY RESERVES MANAGEMENT PRACTICES The following reserves management practices shall be used when developing the Water Utility Financial Plan: Section 1. Definitions a) “Financial Planning Period” – The Financial Planning Period is the range of future fiscal years covered by the Financial Plan. For example, for the Water Utility Financial Plan delivered in conjunction with the FY 2015 budget, FY 2015 to FY 2021 is the Financial Planning Period. b) “Fund Balance” – As used in these Reserves Management Practices, Fund Balance refers to the Utility’s Unrestricted Net Assets. c) “Net Assets” - The Government Accounting Standards Board defines a Utility’s Net Assets as the difference between its assets and liabilities. d) “Unrestricted Net Assets” - The portion of the Utility’s Net Assets not invested in capital assets (net of related debt) or restricted for debt service or other restricted purposes. Section 2. Reserves The Water Utility’s Fund Balance is reserved for the following purposes: a) For existing contracts, as described in Section 3 (Reserve for Commitments) b) For operating and capital budgets re-appropriated from previous years, as described in Section 4 (Reserve for Re-appropriations) c) For future year expenditure on the Water Utility’s Capital Improvement Program (CIP), as described in Section 5 (CIP Reserve) d) For rate stabilization, as described in Section 6 (Rate Stabilization Reserve) e) For operating contingencies, as described in Section 7 (Operations Reserve) f) Any funds not included in the other reserves will be considered Unassigned Reserves and shall be returned to ratepayers or assigned a specific purpose as described in Section 8 (Unassigned Reserves). Section 3. Reserve for Commitments At the end of each fiscal year the Reserve for Commitments will be set to an amount equal to the total remaining spending authority for all contracts in force for the Water Utility at that time. Section 4. Reserve for Re-appropriations At the end of each fiscal year the Reserve for Re-appropriations will be set to an amount equal to the amount of all remaining capital and non-capital budgets that will be re- appropriated to the following fiscal year in accordance with Palo Alto Municipal Code Section 2.28.090. Section 5. CIP Reserve Funds may be added to or withdrawn from the CIP Reserve by action of the City Council and held for future year expenditure on the Water Utility’s CIP Program. If there are funds in WATER UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 24 | P a g e the CIP Reserve at the end of any fiscal year, any subsequent Water Utility Financial Plan must result in the withdrawal of all funds from this Reserve by the end of the next Financial Planning Period. Section 6. Rate Stabilization Reserve Funds may be added to the Rate Stabilization Reserve by action of the City Council and held to manage the trajectory of future year rate increases. Withdrawal of funds from the Rat e Stabilization Reserve requires Council action. If there are funds in the Rate Stabilization Reserve at the end of any fiscal year, any subsequent Water Utility Financial Plan must result in the withdrawal of all funds from this Reserve by the end of the next Financial Planning Period. Section 7. Operations Reserve The Operations Reserve is used to manage normal variations in costs and as a reserve for contingencies. Any portion of the Water Utility’s Fund Balance not included in the reserves described in Section 3-Section 6 above will be included in the Operations Reserve unless this reserve has reached its maximum level as set forth in Section 7(d) below. Staff will manage the Operations Reserve according to the following practices: a) The following guideline levels are set forth for the Operations Reserve. These gui deline levels are calculated for each fiscal year of the Financial Planning Period based on the levels of Operations and Maintenance (O&M) and commodity expense forecasted for that year in the Financial Plan. Minimum Level 60 days of O&M and commodity expense Target Level 90 days of O&M and commodity expense Maximum Level 120 days of O&M and commodity expense b) Minimum Level: If, at the end of any fiscal year, the funds remaining in the Operations Reserve are lower than the minimum level set forth above, staff shall present a plan to the City Council to replenish the reserve. The plan shall be delivered within six months of the end of the fiscal year, and shall, at a minimum, result in the reserve reaching its minimum level by the end of the following fiscal year. For example, if the Operations Reserve is below its minimum level at the end of FY 2014, staff must present a plan by December 31, 2014 to return the reserve to its minimum level by June 30, 2015. In addition, staff may present, and the Council may adopt, an alternative plan that takes longer than one year to replenish the reserve. c) Target Level: If, at the end of any fiscal year, the Operations Reserve is higher or lower than the target level, any Financial Plan created for the Water Utility shall be designed to return the Operations Reserve to its target level within four years. d) Maximum Level: If, at any time, the Operations Reserve reaches its maximum level, no funds may be added to this reserve. Any further increase in the Water Utility’s Fund Balance shall be automatically included in the Unassigned Reserve described in Section 8, below. WATER UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 25 | P a g e Section 8. Unassigned Reserve If the Operations Reserve reaches its maximum level, any further additions to the Water Utility’s Fund Balance will be held in the Unassigned Reserve. If there are any funds in the Unassigned Reserve at the end of any fiscal year, the next Financial Plan presented to the City Council must include a plan to assign them to a specific purpose or return them to the Water Utility ratepayers by the end of the first fiscal year of the next Financial Planning Period. For example, if there were funds in the Unassigned Reserves at the end of FY 2015, and the next Financial Planning Period is FY 2016 through FY 2021, the Financial Plan shall include a plan to return or assign any funds in the Unassigned Reserve by the end of FY 2016. Staff may present an alternative plan that retains these funds or returns them over a longer period of time. WATER UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 26 | P a g e APPENDIX D : WATER UTILITY DEBT SERVICE DETAILS The Water Utility currently makes payment on its share of two bond issuances. The first is the 2009 Water Revenue Bond, Series A, issued for $35 million, and to be retired by 2035. As part of the ‘Build America’ bond program, there is an interest payment subsidy from the Federal Government of 35%. There is always the possibility that the federal government will choose to stop payment on this subsidy. The automatic federal spending cuts under the Budget Control Act (BCA) of 2011 have already reduced the subsidy by $50,000 per year, and if planned cuts through 2021 proceed without amendment, staff estimates that the subsidy would be reduced by over $200,000 per year by 2021. The Bipartisan Budget Act of 2013, which relieved some of the discretionary spending cuts in the 2011 BCA, did not affect automatic cuts to the subsidy, and actually extended the automatic cuts through 2023. The second bond issuance is the 2011 Utility Revenue Refunding Bond, Series A, which is to be retired in 2026. This $17.2 million issuance refinanced an earlier Water and Gas Utility bond issuance, the 2002 Utility Revenue Bonds, Series A, which was issued to finance various capital improvements for both systems. The Water Utility’s share of the issuance was roughly $7.8 million. The cost of debt service for the Water Utility’s share of these bond issuances for the financial forecast period is as follows: Table 11: Water Utility Debt Service FY 2014 ($000) FY 2015 ($000) FY 2016 ($000) FY 2017 ($000) FY 2018 ($000) FY 2019 ($000) FY 2020 ($000) FY 2021 ($000) 2009 Water Revenue Bonds, Series A 1,977 1,986 2,002 2,012 2,031 2,046 2,064 2,079 2011 Utility Revenue Bonds, Series A 656 656 657 657 656 654 656 657 Both the 2009 and 2011 Bonds include the following covenants: 1) net revenues plus Available Reserves shall at least equal 125% of the maximum annual debt service, and 2) Available Reserves shall be at least 5 times the maximum annual debt service. Note that “Available Reserves,” as defined for both bonds, is defined as reserves for the Water, Gas and Electric systems, not just the Water system. The current Financial Plan maintains compliance with these covenants throughout the forecast period. Due to the relatively small size of the annual debt service payments for these bonds in relation to the size of Available Reserves, ($149.5 million at the end of FY 2013, over 55 times the maximum annual debt service alone), the Water Utility more than satisfies both covenants. The Water Utility’s Operations Reserve satisfies the first covenant on its own at more than 3 times annual debt service throughout the forecast period. The net revenues (but not the reserves) of the Water Utility are also pledged for one other bond as shown in Table 12 below, even though the Water Utility is not responsible for the debt WATER UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 27 | P a g e service payments. The Water Utility’s reserves or net revenues would only be called upon if the responsible utilities are unable to make their debt service payments. Staff does not currently foresee this occurring. Requirements of the California Constitution require that any amounts advanced from one utility to pay debt service for another utility must be repaid by the borrowing fund. Table 12: Other Issuances Secured by Water Utility’s Revenues or Reserves Bond Issuance Responsible Utilities Annual Debt Service ($000) Secured by Water Utility’s: Net Revenues Reserves 1995 Series A Utility Revenue Bonds Storm Drain $680 Yes No WATER UTILITY FINANCIAL PLAN J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 28 | P a g e APPENDIX E : DESCRIPTION OF WATER UTILITY COST CATEGORIES This appendix describes the activities associated with the various cost categories referred to in this Financial Plan. Customer Service: This category includes the Water Utility’s share of the call center, meter reading, collections, and billing support functions. Billing support encompasses staff time associated with bill investigations and quality control on certain aspects of the billing process. It does not include maintenance of the billing system itself, which is included in Administration. This category also includes CPAU’s key account representatives, who work with large commercial customers who have more complex requirements for their water services. Resource Management: This category includes water procurement, contract management, water resource planning, rate setting, interaction with BAWSCA, the SFPUC, and the SCVWD, and tracking of legislation and regulation related to the water industry. Operations and Maintenance: This category includes the costs of a variety of distribution system maintenance activities, including:  investigating reports of damaged mains or services and perform emergency repairs;  testing and operating valves;  monitoring water quality and reservoir levels;  monitoring the status of the different pressure zones;  flushing water at hydrants and other closed end points of the system;  building and replacing water services for new or redeveloped buildings; and  testing and replacing meters to ensure accurate sales metering. This category also includes a variety of functions the utility shares with other City utilities, including:  the Field Services team (which does field research of various customer service issues);  the Cathodic Protection team (which monitors and maintains the systems that prevent corrosion in metal tanks and reservoirs); and  the General Services team (which manages and maintains equipment, paves and restores streets after gas, water, or sewer main replacements, and provides welding services) Administration: Accounting, purchasing, legal, and other administrative functions provided by the City’s General Fund staff, as well as shared communications services , CPAU administrative overhead, and billing system maintenance costs. Engineering (Operating): The Water Utility’s engineers focus primarily on the CIP, but a small portion of their time is spent assisting with distribution system maintenance. APPENDIX F: SAMPLE O F WATER UTILITY OUTREACH COMMUNICATI ONS   1 December2012 SUMMARYOFRESULTS  REPORTHIGHLIGHTS Opportunitiesforimprovingandstrengtheningofinternal controlsareprovidedinthefollowingfindings:  RECOMMENDATIONS TheOfficeoftheCityAuditor(OCA)recommends thefollowingactions:   FINDING1:RateStabilizationReservesarenotconsistently maintained within Councilapproved guidelines. The City doesnotcurrentlyhaveaformal,comprehensivereserve policy for its utility funds. Key City documents show inconsistencyincommunicationoftheCity’sreservepolicy decisions. Rate Stabilization Reserve balances were often outside of Councilapproved guideline ranges. Reserve balances are inconsistently reported and do not always reconcile, primarily due to the exclusion of Capital ImprovementProgram(CIP)carryforwardreserves.  Establishing a more comprehensive reserve policy, with effective supporting procedures, the City Council and the UtilitiesDepartmentcouldbenefitfromhavingclearcriteria tocommunicate,manage,andmonitorutilityreserves.  FINDING2:CapitalImprovementProgramreservesarenot consistently and clearly reported to Council.The reports issued regarding CIP are not sufficient to adequately support effective financial and project planning. Improvements to the consistency and completeness of reporting CIP carryforward reserve balances could better supporttheCityCouncil’soperatingbudget,capitalbudget, andreservesprocesses. TheUtilitiesDepartmentshouldestablishformal andcomprehensivepoliciesandproceduresfor itsUtilityReserves. TheUtilitiesDepartmentshouldreevaluateand determinetheuseofreservebalanceguidelines, updatingtheCity’sresolutionandthelanguage inkeyCitydocumentsaccordingly. TheUtilitiesDepartmentshouldrevisititsannual risk assessment model to determine, establish, anddocumentappropriatelevelsofutilityfund workingcapitalheldinunrestrictedreserves. The Utilities Department should revisit and update the 5year financial projection rate making worksheets to completely state all reserve balances consistent with the City’s key financialdocumentsandimprovevisibilityover allunrestrictedreserves. The Utilities Department should develop a mechanism to consistently and clearly report Capital Improvement Program carryforward reservestotheoversightbodies.   Thisdocumentrepresentsalimitedsummaryoftheauditreportanddoesnotincludealloftheinformationavailableinthefullreport. ThefullreportcanbefoundontheOfficeoftheCityAuditorwebsiteat:http://www.cityofpaloalto.org/depts/aud/audit_reports.asp OfficeoftheCityAuditor EXECUTIVESUMMARY–UTILITIESRESERVESAUDIT Summary of Audit Objectives: To assess the appropriateness and adequacy of utilities reserves, reservepolicies,reserveguidelines,andusageofreserves. Attachment A EXCERPTED DRAFT MINUTES OF THE MARCH 26, 2014 UTILITIES ADVISORY COMMISSION SPECIAL MEETING ITEM 3: ACTION: Staff Recommendation that the Utilities Advisory Commission Recommend that the City Council Approve the Fiscal year 2015 Electric, Gas, Wastewater, and Water Financial Plans and Reserve Management Policies Senior Resource Planner Jon Abendschein stated that staff was recommending that the UAC approve the Financial Plans, including the Reserves Management Practices. The Reserves Management Practices were the same that the UAC had reviewed in its previous two meetings, and involved changes to the structure of the reserves. He noted that the current financial forecasts had changed from the preliminary financial forecasts provided to the UAC in February. The biggest changes to the preliminary financial forecasts were for the Wastewater Collection and Water Utilities. The Water Utility was seeing increases in the cost of existing projects, including water main replacement projects. There were also uncertainties about the future costs for the water main replacement program, and costs had been increasing for this program . As a result, CPAU plans to perform a new CIP study in 2014. Staff recommended a 4% water rate increase in Fiscal Year (FY) 2015 to put the utility in a better position to deal with increased main replacement costs. The proposed increase would go into effect on November 1, 2014, which would give staff time to develop drought rates in the event the SFPUC called for mandatory 20% water consumption reductions at its April meeting. Staff also proposed a 4% wastewater rate increase to spread the Wastewater Collection Utility rate increases over five years rather than four. The rate increase would take effect at the same time as the water rate increase so that the Proposition 218 notice requirements could be coordinated. Public Comment Helen MacKenzie, President of the Garden Club of Palo Alto, noted that she sent a letter to the UAC and Council calling for a revision of water rates. She believed that residential customers were paying a disproportionate share of the water costs. The tiered rates were a penalty for residential consumption. Commercial customers paid a flat volumetric rate which provided no incentive to conserve water. She objects to the proposed rate increase since there was too much uncertainty to support the proposal. She noted that the communication with staff has been cordial and professional. Finally, she congratulated the City on receiving the water conservation award recently. Vice Chair Foster asked how long it had been since the City had gone a year without a water rate increase. Abendschein said that the last time would have been several years ago. Vice Chair Foster indicated that he supported no rate increase for water or wastewater in FY 2015 given the uncertainty in the CIP costs in general. He understood that with no rate increase in FY 2015, larger rate increases may be required in subsequent years. Commissioner Melton asked whether the reason for the Wastewater Collection rate increase was because it could be coordinated with the water rate increase. Abendschein said that the cost and time associated with Prop 218 noticing was substantial, so it made sense to coordinate with the Water Utility. Without a rate increase, the Wastewater Collection Utility would see 7% rate increases in future years, and a rate increase in FY 2015 could reduce future year rate increases. Commissioner Melton suggested that the UAC defer the decision until more information is known. Abendschein said that staff had done substantial analysis, and while they were not ready to put out firm numbers, they were confident that the risk of higher CIP costs was much higher than the possibility of lower CIP costs. Changing rates require substantial lead time, so it didn’t make sense to defer the decision. Commissioner Melton asked if decisions by the SFPUC about mandatory consumption reductions could change the ratemaking decision. Abendschein said that if drought rates were required rates would rise, but not revenues. T he 4% increase was a revenue increase, while drought rates did not involve an increase in revenue. Drought rates recover the same revenue over a smaller number of sales units. Director Fong added that doing the 4% rate increase this year would mitigate the bill impacts in future years. Commissioner Hall, referring to wastewater, said that treatment costs are rising every year from 2014 to 2019 and it appears that the costs are rising substantially over that period. He asked why they are going up so high and so consistently. Abendschein said that the treatment costs are rising primarily due to planned CIP projects at the water quality control plant. Commissioner Hall stated that these are pass-through costs to the water utility and the utility is not able to control these costs. Abendschein said that the utility staff had influence just like the other partners in the Regional Water Quality Control Plant (RWQCP). Commissioner Hall stated that he would like to have more information on these costs to discuss them in detail and ideally hear from staff from the RWQCP. Abendschein noted that the financial plan describe s these costs and that the City's Budget has additional information. Commissioner Hall stated that he would not support the 4% rate increase proposal. He noted that Palo Alto already had very high water rates, and staff needed to provide more analysis to demonstrate why rates were higher. Commissioner Hall said that there was not enough information to support the 4% water rate increase at this time. Commissioner Eglash stated that the report and analysis was excellent. He understood and sympathized with the proposal for a 4% rate increase, but stated that he could not support the proposal. It was realistic and rational to support rate increases due to current costs and even for known future costs. However, if the future costs were uncertain, he said that this was not a powerful enough reason to support a rate increase. He understood it was possible, and perhaps likely, that the increased CIP costs would materialize, and understood that a rate increase now would reduce future year rate increases, but that until the costs were certain an increase would be difficult to explain to the community. He did not support any rate increases for FY 2015. Chair Cook said that the report was excellent and noted that we do talk about the idea of smoothing rate increases over multiple years and this seems to be the reason for the rate increase proposal. He stated that it appeared that the rate increase was associated with costs that were not yet certain, so he was not comfortable with raising rates at that time. Commissioner Eglash commented that he wanted to make sure to commend staff for looking forward and for alerting the UAC to the potentially high er rate increases, and that his lack of support for the proposal was not intended as a criticism, but that more certainty in the magnitude of the future cost was required before the community could accept the increases. Commissioner Hall added that he agreed that staff was doing the type of forecasting it should be doing, but that the UAC had the burden of explanation to the community and that there was not enough information yet to justify the rate increase . Commissioner Melton wanted to know if staff would provide a next step decision on what it would be recommending to the Council. Director Fong stated that staff would have to consider its recommendation but was not prepared to make a decision that night. She suggested the possibility of working closely with a couple of Commission Members to allow further assessment of upcoming CIP costs, and she reminded Commissioner Melton that staff was beginning a study to firm up those costs. Commissioner Melton said those studies would take several months. Director Fong confirmed that was the case. Commissioner Melton said that the information would not be available for them to make decisions about FY 2015 rates. Director Fong noted that CPAU was able to do mid-year rate increases. Commissioner Melton asked whether it was possible to delay the decision on rate increases until the new information was available. Commissioner Eglash stated that his intent was to recommend 0% rate increases for FY 2015, and his expectation would be that staff would return with better information on CIP costs to enable them to set FY 2016 rates. If extraordinary information revealed a need to increase rates mid-way through the fiscal year, that was always something that could be done. ACTION: Commissioner Eglash moved to recommend that Council approve the Financial Plans for the Electric, Gas, Wastewater Collection, and Water Utilities, but with 0% rate increases for all utilities for FY 2015. Vice Chair Foster seconded the motion. The motion passed (4-1, with Melton opposed and Commissioners Chang and Waldfogel absent).