HomeMy WebLinkAboutStaff Report 4227
City of Palo Alto (ID # 4227)
Finance Committee Staff Report
Report Type: Action Items Meeting Date: 2/18/2014
City of Palo Alto Page 1
Summary Title: Long Range Financial Forecast for Fiscal Years 2015 - 2024
Title: Review of Long Range Financial Forecast for Fiscal Years 2015 to 2024
From: City Manager
Lead Department: Administrative Services
Recommendation
Staff recommends that the Finance Committee review the Fiscal Year 2015 to 2024 General
Fund Long Range Financial Forecast and forward the Forecast to the Council for review and
acceptance.
Executive Summary
The Fiscal Year 2015-2024 General Fund Long Range Financial Forecast (LRFF), which marks the
beginning of the FY 2015 budget planning process, projects a slight General Fund surplus of
$1.3 million in FY 2015. Based on this analysis, staff will develop the FY 2015 Proposed Budget
in alignment with the City Council priorities as approved by the City Council on February 1,
2014:
1. Comprehensive planning and action on land use and transportation: the Built
Environment, Transportation, Mobility, Parking and Livability
2. Infrastructure Strategy and Funding
3. Technology and the Connected City
Concurrently, the City Council has directed staff to develop Our Palo Alto, a comprehensive and
multi-faceted resident engagement process, develop a Transportation Demand Management
program, and address parking within the City. Further, the City is facing major challenges to
maintain its infrastructure, experiences growing unfunded liabilities for pension and retiree
healthcare benefits, and seeks to remain a competitive employer to keep and attract a talented
workforce. These strategic long-term efforts will require additional funding in the FY 2015
Proposed Budget and beyond.
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As in past years, staff updated the City’s Long Range Financial Forecast (LRFF) based on current
information compiled from various sources and used available tools to project revenues and
expenditures. The Long Range Financial Forecast allows staff and Council members to
understand the long-term results of past decisions and identify issues that must be addressed
in the near and long term, including the availability of funds. The Forecast is not a prediction or
a commitment of resources; rather, it is a reasonable snapshot of the City’s future financial
condition based on various assumptions and currently available data.
A continuously improving economic climate is noted by the majority of national, State, regional,
and local economic indicators. This Forecast assumes a continued, gradual growth of the
national economy with positive impacts to the local economy, which is reflective in staff’s
estimates of the economically sensitive revenue estimates.
As the table below depicts, based on the FY 2015 Forecast Budget, staff anticipates a General
Fund surplus of approximately $1.3 million for FY 2015 and surpluses in all out-years of the
Forecast. During this Forecast Period, surpluses range between $1.3 million and $8.9 million
with an approximate cumulative one-time surplus of $47.5 million. Assuming funding the
General Fund Stabilization Reserve at the City Council approved target level of 18.5 percent of
General Fund operating expenditures, $9.4 million would have to set aside. With this set -aside,
the one-time resources projected in this Forecast would decrease by $9.4 million from $47.5
million to $38.1 million.
The table also depicts the concept of a net operating margin. The operating margin reflects the
variance between the projected General Fund revenues and expenditures for each year of the
forecast or the annual surplus or deficit. With the concept of the net operating margin, the
year over year change in the annual surpluses and deficits, it is assumed that each shortfall is
addressed completely with ongoing solutions in the year it appears and that each surplus is
completely expended with ongoing expenditures. For example, if the City spends the curren tly
projected FY 2015 surplus of $1.3 million, the available projected surplus for FY 2016 will only
by approximately $3.1 million. In subsequent fiscal years, the net operating margin is estimated
to range between slight deficits and slight surpluses. Ba sed on these assumptions, the
cumulative Net Operating Margin, or ongoing surplus, during the Forecast Period is
approximately $7.6 million.
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FY 2015-2024 Base Long Range Financial Forecast
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Total Revenues $166,306 $166,982 $175,269 $181,439 $187,159 $193,184 $199,502 $204,898 $210,886 $217,948 $225,519
Total Expenditures 160,433 165,711 170,852 176,730 182,876 189,195 195,343 200,978 205,839 211,126 216,619
Net One-Time Surplus (Shortfall)$5,873 $1,270 $4,417 $4,708 $4,284 $3,988 $4,159 $3,920 $5,047 $6,822 $8,900
Cumulative One-Time Surplus (Shortfall)$47,516
Net Operating Margin $0 $0 $3,147 $291 ($425)($295)$171 ($239)$1,127 $1,775 $2,078
Cumulative Net Operating Margin $7,630
Assumes that the annual shortfalls are solved with ongoing solutions and annual surpluses are spent for ongoing expenditures.
Although this Forecast presents a positive fiscal outlook for the City’s General Fund, it is
important to note that it does not include the following potential impacts, which can increase
or decrease the projected annual surpluses, to the FY 2015 Budget and the out-years of the
Forecast: (1) ongoing labor negotiations; (2) updated Retiree Healthcare Plan Actuarial
Valuation; (3) impacts due to assumption of control of the Palo Alto Airport; (4) savings from
Third Tier Pension Plan; (5) Cadillac Healthcare Federal Excise Tax; (6) dedication of increased
Transient Occupancy Tax (TOT) revenue to fund a new Public Safety Building per resolution of
the Infrastructure Committee (this additional TOT is expected to be generated starting FY 2015
as new hotels are opened); (7) additional funding and/or higher annual debt service for the Golf
Course reconfiguration project; (8) the potential acquisition of the downtown Palo Alto Post
Office; (9) potential termination of the Fire Services Contract with Stanford University; and (10)
changes in the local, regional, and national economy.
Towards the end of this report, staff also presents an alternative FY 2015 -2024 Long Range
Financial Forecast, which assumes that the City Council dedicate a substantial portion of the
estimated increase in TOT revenue towards the funding of annual debt service payments in the
amount of $2.5 million. This annual debt service, over 30 years, is estimated to generate
approximately $34 million in Certificates of Participation to partially fund the cost of a new
Public Safety building.
In this alternative Forecast, with the dedication of the increased TOT receipts towards an
annual debt service of $2.5 million, surpluses range between $1.3 million and $6.4 million with
an approximate cumulative one-time surplus of $25.0 million, approximately $23 million less
than the base model and the cumulative Net Operating Margin is reduced by $2.5 million to
$5.1 million from $7.6 million.
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FY 2015-2024 Alternative Long Range Financial Forecast
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
TOT from New Hotels 297 1,546 2,626 3,111 3,597 3,783 3,981 4,192 4,415 4,653 4,906
Total Revenues $166,306 $166,982 $175,269 $181,439 $187,159 $193,184 $199,502 $204,898 $210,886 $217,948 $225,519
Estimated Debt Service for
Public Safety Building 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500
Total Expenditures 160,433 165,711 173,352 179,230 185,376 191,695 197,843 203,478 208,339 213,626 219,119
Net One-Time Surplus (Shortfall)$5,873 $1,270 $1,917 $2,208 $1,784 $1,488 $1,659 $1,420 $2,547 $4,322 $6,400
Cumulative One-Time Surplus (Shortfall)$25,016
Net Operating Margin $0 $0 $647 $291 ($425)($295)$171 ($239)$1,127 $1,775 $2,078
Cumulative Net Operating Margin $5,130
At this time, staff projects $5.9 million in excess revenues and expenditure savings in the
General Fund for FY 2014. This amount does assume forthcoming recommendations to adjust
revenues and does not include forthcoming expenditure increase recommendations, which
staff is scheduled to present to the Finance Committee in March as part of the approval of the
FY 2014 Midyear Budget Review. Further, these projected excess revenues and expenditure
savings do not include increased costs in the current fiscal year due to potential outcomes of
labor negotiations.
During the next two months, staff will continue to monitor revenue sources as well as update
revenues and expenditures, as applicable, based on newly available information, as part of
submitting a balanced FY 2015 Proposed Budget to the City Council.
Economic Outlook
In preparing the 2015-2024 Long Range Financial Forecast, staff reviewed key economic
indicators and measures available for the national, state, and local economy. Overall, as has
been reported in various media outlets and economic forecast pub lications, on national, state,
and local levels, the nation, State, and region are experiencing positive economic growth, which
has accelerated after the first years following the deep recession.
National
Growth in the U.S. economy has increased in each of the four quarters of 2013, with GDP
growing by a 3.2 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2013, which is up from the 2.8
percent growth in the third quarter. It is anticipated that growth for the rest of 2014 will be in
the 3.0 percent rangei, with growth for 2014 and 2015 between 3 and 4 percentii. The growth
in GDP can be attributed to many factors, including rising home prices, reduced unemployment,
and increasing corporate profits, however not all facets of the economy are improving at th e
same level, and certain pressures remain which have prevented economic indicators fully
returning to pre-recession levels.
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Supporting the higher expected growth in GDP, Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at
The Conference Board reports that “Consumer confidence advanced in January for the second
consecutive month. Consumers’ assessment of the present situation continues to improve, with
both business conditions and the job market rated more favorably. Looking ahead six months,
consumers expect the economy and their earnings to improve, but were somewhat mixed
regarding the outlook for jobs. All in all, confidence appears to be back on track and rising
expectations suggest the economy may pick up some momentum in the months aheadiii.”
The national unemployment rate in December 2013 was 6.7 percent. This is 18 percent lower
than the rate of 7.9 percent in December 2012iv. UCLA Anderson Forecast projects that the U.S.
unemployment rate will decline to 6 percent by yearend 2015v. As the following table
illustrates, unemployment rates have been lower for workers with higher levels of education,
which has benefited Palo Alto.
U.S. Unemployment Rates by Education Level
Education Level Aug. 2011 Aug. 2012 Aug. 2013
Less than High School 14.2% 12.0% 11.3%
High School 9.3% 8.7% 7.6%
Some College 8.2% 6.6% 6.1%
Bachelor’s Degree or Higher 4.3% 4.1% 3.5%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics as sourced in Beaconomics Fall 2013
The increase in U.S. home prices is evidence of an improving economy. Prices surged by 11.0
percent in December as compared to the prior year. While Nevada led all states with growth of
23.9 percent, California was second in the nation with growth of 19.7 percent, according to
analytics consulting firm CoreLogicvi. Also of note is the fact that corporate profits are 25
percent higher than at their pre-recession peak2.
While the GDP growth, declining unemployment, and rising home prices and corporate profits
indicate a rebounding economy, it should be noted that there are other economic measures
that have not seen such marked improvement. Americans continue to be hampered by weak
pay, tepid hiring, as well as by government spending cuts to programs such as food stampsvii.
For instance, the current national median income is lower than it was in June 2009, the ending
month of the recession1, and in the past twelve months median salaries have not kept up with
inflationviii.
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Economists and investors consider non-defense capital goods orders to be one of the most
important economic indicators, as it shows the level that businesses are investing in machinery,
technology, and other items, and it signals the manufacturing sector’s health and how busy
factories will be. Orders in this category fell by 1.3 percent from August to Septembe r.
Analysts attributed this decline to business worries related to the federal government
shutdown. However, 3rd quarter activity reflects a continuation of the up-and-down trend seen
this year.
State
While the national economic measures indicate an economy on the rebound, tapered by
sluggish improvements in a number of areas, the important economic measures for the state
have shown more consistent gains. In 2013, California became the 8 th largest world economy
again. GDP is expected to grow by 2.9 percent in 2013, and improve even more significantly in
2014 to growth of 3.9 percent. California has experienced stronger improvement in many of
the measures which have dragged down the pace of the national economic rebound primarily
due to jobs growth.
The unemployment rate in California fell to 8.3 percent in December 2013, down from 8.5
percent in November 2013 and 9.8 percent in December 2012. The 1.5 percent year-over-year
decline outpaced the national drop of 1.2 percentix. July 2013 marked the 36th consecutive
month of employment growth in the statex. UCLA Anderson Forecast predicts that the state
unemployment will drop to 8.2 percent in 2014 and 7.3 percent in 2015. While these rates will
still exceed the predicted national average, the pace at which California is projected to improve
nearly doubles the national forecasted rates. Overall, California has added nearly two-thirds of
the jobs lost during the Great Recession. The employment recovery remains broad -based
across all sectors and regions, according to Beacon Economics; however UCLA Anderson points
to a continued bifurcation between fast-growing coastal regions and still-struggling inland
areas.
As noted previously, the growth in California home prices is second in the nation, and by
December 2013 the median home price rose to $365,000, a 22 percent increase over December
2012xi and a more dramatic increase of 60 percent over the April 2009 low point of $221,000 xii.
While home prices have been rapidly rising, the state home ownership rate of 55 percent is still
well below the housing bubble high of 60.2 percentxiii. Since 2011 single-family home prices
have increased by 25 percent. While continued growth is expected in 2014, the pace of growth
is projected to decrease to 7 percent due to increased supplyxiv.
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California taxable sales have expanded over 34 percent since 2009, exceeding the pre-recession
peak by 4.7 percent, and hotel occupancy across the state has demonstrated consistent gains
and remains above 70 percentxv.
Local
The positive impacts from an improving national and state economy, as outlined above, have
been especially apparent at the local level. Silicon Valley employment is robust, with
unemployment rates in the region lower than both the national and state averages. Palo Alto
employment rates significantly outperform both San Jose and San Francisco.
Bay Area Non-Adjusted Unemployment Rates
Area Oct. 2012 April 2013 Oct. 2013
San Jose 8.9% 7.2% 7.1%
San Francisco 6.8% 5.4% 5.4%
Palo Alto 4.2% 3.4% 3.4%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Between October 2012 and October 2013, the Palo Alto non-adjusted unemployment rate
decreased by 24 percent from 4.2 percent to 3.4 percent. As the chart below depicts, in
January 2011, the Palo Alto non-adjusted unemployment rate was at 5.7 percent.
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According to the UCLA Anderson Forecast, the improved employment figures in the Bay Area
will be sustained and unemployment rates will continue to decline over the next two years.
According to Zillow.com, as of January 2014, the median sale price for Palo Alto homes was
$1.83 million, up 20.4 percent from last year’s $1.5 million median price, and Palo Alto
commercial real estate spaces continue to have high occupancy rates. With improved
employment and home prices, activity in Palo Alto has increased significantly.
The national, state, and local economic measures and indicators described above were all
considered in the development of the 2015-2024 Long Range Financial Forecast. Staff then
reviewed historical collection patterns and factors specific to Palo Alto (e.g. new hotels in
development, sales tax from local businesses, and homeownership data) in preparing the
Forecast revenue estimates. Overall tax revenue over the ten years in this forecast exceeds the
tax revenues in the previous Long Range Financial Forecast by $106.7 million. Improvements
were assumed in all tax categories (Sales, Property, Transient Occupancy, and Utility User Tax)
except for the Documentary Transfer Tax.
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Fiscal Year 2015-2024 General Fund Long Range Financial Forecast
The FY 2015-2024 General Fund Long Range Financial Forecast projects a General Fund surplus
in the amount of $1.3 million for FY 2015 and surpluses in all subsequent years of the Forecast.
During this Forecast Period, surpluses range between $1.3 million and $8.9 million with an
approximate cumulative one-time surplus of $47.5 million (see table below).
By City Council approved policy, the General Fund Budget Stabilization Reserve (BSR) is
maintained in the range of 15 to 20 percent of General Fund operating expenditures, with a
target of 18.5 percent. Assuming the 18.5 percent in this Forecast, the BSR would have to
increase from $30.7 million in FY 2015 to $40.1 million in FY 2024. So, over the F orecast period,
about $9.4 million would have to set aside to adequately fund the BSR, reducing the one -time
resources projected in this Forecast from $47.5 million to $38.1 million.
The table also depicts the concept of a net operating margin. The operating margin reflects the
variance between the projected General Fund revenues and expenditures for each year of the
forecast or the annual surplus or deficit. With the concept of the net operating margin, the
year over year change in surpluses and deficits, it is assumed that each shortfall is addressed
completely with ongoing solutions in the year it appears and that each surplus is completely
expended with ongoing expenditures.
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Total Revenues $166,306 $166,982 $175,269 $181,439 $187,159 $193,184 $199,502 $204,898 $210,886 $217,948 $225,519
Total Expenditures 160,433 165,711 170,852 176,730 182,876 189,195 195,343 200,978 205,839 211,126 216,619
Net One-Time Surplus (Shortfall)$5,873 $1,270 $4,417 $4,708 $4,284 $3,988 $4,159 $3,920 $5,047 $6,822 $8,900
Cumulative One-Time Surplus (Shortfall)$47,516
Net Operating Margin $0 $0 $3,147 $291 ($425)($295)$171 ($239)$1,127 $1,775 $2,078
Cumulative Net Operating Margin $7,630
Assumes that the annual shortfalls are solved with ongoing solutions and annual surpluses are spent for ongoing expenditures.
For example, as shown in the graph below, if the City spends the current ly projected FY 2015
surplus of $1.3 million, the available projected surplus or net operating margin for FY 2016 will
only be approximately $3.1 million. In subsequent fiscal years, the net operating margin is
estimated to range between slight deficits and slight surpluses. Based on these assumptions,
the cumulative Net Operating Margin, or ongoing surplus, during the Forecast Period is
approximately $7.6 million.
City of Palo Alto Page 10
It should be noted though, that this Forecast, as outlined in the following sections of this report
does not include the following potential impacts to the FY 2015 Budget and the out-years of the
Forecast: (1) ongoing labor negotiations; (2) updated Retiree Healthcare Plan Actuarial
Valuation; (3) impacts due to assumption of control of the Pa lo Alto Airport; (4) savings from
Third Tier Pension Plan; (5) Cadillac Healthcare Federal Excise Tax; (6) dedication of increased
Transient Occupancy Tax (TOT) revenue to fund a new Public Safety Building per resolution of
the Infrastructure Committee (this additional TOT is expected to be generated starting FY 2015
as new hotels are opened); (7) additional funding and/or higher annual debt service for the Golf
Course reconfiguration project; (8) the potential acquisition of the downtown Palo Alto Post
Office; (9) potential termination of the Fire Services Contract with Stanford University; and (10)
unanticipated changes in the local, regional, and national economy.
At this time, staff projects $5.9 million in excess revenues and expenditure savings in the
General Fund for FY 2014. This amount does assume forthcoming recommendations to adjust
revenues and does not include forthcoming expenditure increase recommendations, which
staff is scheduled to present to the Finance Committee in March as part of the a pproval of the
FY 2014 Midyear Budget Review. Further, these projected excess revenues and expenditure
savings do not include increased costs in the current fiscal year due to potential outcomes of
labor negotiations.
The next section of the report discusses the analysis and assumptions of major revenue and
expenditure categories. The Forecast model can be found in Attachment A. Consistent with the
2013-2023 Long Range Financial Forecast, the methodology for calculating changes for out-
years of the Forecast (FY 2016 to FY 2024) are based on a historical analysis of increases using
the Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) with adjustments factored in for known items.
Staff the performed a reasonableness test of the results.
City of Palo Alto Page 11
Revenues
The tables below highlight the annual revenue estimates and year over year increases for this
Forecast. Compared to FY 2014 projected, FY 2015 revenues are estimated to increase by $1.3
million, or less than 1.0 percent. Based on the economic analysis presented in the previo us
section of this report, revenue estimates, which are primarily linked to the performance of the
regional and local economy, are reflective of a gradually growing economy, the current
increases in home prices, and the future opening of hotels.
Since FY 2010, when the Great Recession severely impacted City tax revenues, there has been a
steady recovery in these resources. In fact, in such areas as transient occupancy and
documentary transfer taxes gains have outpaced previous projections, reflecting a robust real
estate and business environment. Some tax revenues will be adjusted upward at midyear and
the Long Range Financial Forecast reflects these positive trends.
Adopted Projected
2014 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Revenues
Sales Taxes $23,846 $27,352 $25,660 $26,256 $26,711 $27,269 $27,915 $28,599 $29,317 $30,091 $30,903 $31,769
Property Taxes 29,613 30,250 31,835 33,541 35,353 37,264 39,297 41,464 43,774 46,107 48,503 51,088
Transient Occupancy Tax 11,545 12,318 14,156 16,487 17,645 18,848 19,822 20,863 21,965 23,137 24,382 25,709
Documentary Transfer Tax 5,699 7,395 7,414 6,562 6,619 6,685 6,792 6,914 7,052 7,222 7,431 7,654
Utility User Tax 11,013 11,386 11,285 11,761 12,373 12,584 12,973 13,384 13,815 14,264 14,628 15,097
Other Taxes & Fines 2,107 2,107 2,206 2,228 2,251 2,273 2,296 2,319 2,342 2,365 2,389 2,413
Subtotal: Taxes 83,823 90,808 92,556 96,835 100,951 104,923 109,095 113,543 118,265 123,186 128,236 133,730
Charges for Services 16,203 15,252 14,098 17,250 18,005 18,296 18,594 18,901 19,216 19,540 19,873 20,215
Stanford Fire and Dispatch Services 8,176 7,332 7,782 8,015 8,256 8,504 8,759 9,021 9,292 9,571 9,858 10,154
Permits & Licenses 8,346 7,777 7,355 7,207 7,064 6,911 7,153 7,403 7,699 8,084 8,489 8,913
Return on Investment 769 701 685 699 716 733 751 770 790 814 840 869
Rental Income 12,891 14,010 14,080 14,490 14,852 15,223 15,604 15,994 15,151 14,626 14,992 15,367
From Other Agencies 253 313 253 253 254 255 256 258 259 261 262 264
Charges to Other Funds 10,574 10,574 11,081 11,443 11,846 12,267 12,699 13,112 13,494 13,840 14,198 14,570
Other Revenues 2,010 2,010 1,480 1,510 1,540 1,571 1,602 1,634 1,667 1,700 1,734 1,769
Total Non-Tax Revenues 59,221 57,969 56,813 60,867 62,532 63,759 65,418 67,093 67,569 68,436 70,246 72,120
Operating Transfers-In 17,529 17,529 17,612 17,567 17,956 18,478 18,671 18,866 19,064 19,263 19,465 19,670
Total Source of Funds $160,573 $166,306 $166,982 $175,269 $181,439 $187,159 $193,184 $199,502 $204,898 $210,886 $217,948 $225,519
The upward trend of the City’s tax revenues is expected to continue over the next 10 years.
These tax revenues have significantly improved since the beginning of the Great Recession. The
table below illustrates the steady growth projected for the General Fund’s revenue streams, by
percentage, from FY 2015 through FY 2024.
City of Palo Alto Page 12
Adopted Projected
2014 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Revenues
Sales Taxes -6.87%6.82%-6.19%2.32%1.73%2.09%2.37%2.45%2.51%2.64%2.70%2.80%
Property Taxes 3.03%5.25%5.24%5.36%5.40%5.41%5.46%5.51%5.57%5.33%5.20%5.33%
Transient Occupancy Tax 6.96%14.13%14.92%16.47%7.02%6.82%5.17%5.25%5.28%5.34%5.38%5.44%
Documentary Transfer Tax -16.31%8.60%0.26%-11.50%0.87%1.00%1.60%1.80%2.00%2.40%2.90%3.00%
Utility User Tax 1.40%4.84%-0.89%4.22%5.20%1.71%3.09%3.17%3.22%3.25%2.55%3.21%
Other Taxes & Fines -2.11%-2.11%4.72%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%
Subtotal: Taxes -1.34%6.88%1.93%4.62%4.25%3.93%3.98%4.08%4.16%4.16%4.10%4.28%
Charges for Services -9.24%-14.57%-7.56%22.36%4.38%1.61%1.63%1.65%1.67%1.69%1.70%1.72%
Stanford Fire and Dispatch Services 2.89%-7.73%6.14%3.00%3.00%3.00%3.00%3.00%3.00%3.00%3.00%3.00%
Permits & Licenses -3.42%-10.00%-5.43%-2.01%-1.99%-2.16%3.50%3.50%4.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%
Return on Investment -18.89%-26.10%-2.20%2.00%2.38%2.41%2.46%2.51%2.66%3.01%3.26%3.36%
Rental Income 0.09%8.78%0.50%2.91%2.50%2.50%2.50%2.50%-5.27%-3.47%2.50%2.50%
From Other Agencies 6.31%31.88%-19.39%0.30%0.35%0.40%0.45%0.50%0.55%0.60%0.65%0.70%
Charges to Other Funds -9.51%-9.51%4.79%3.27%3.52%3.55%3.52%3.25%2.92%2.56%2.59%2.62%
Other Revenues 29.29%29.29%-26.37%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%
Total Non-Tax Revenues -4.09%-6.11%-1.99%7.14%2.73%1.96%2.60%2.56%0.71%1.28%2.65%2.67%
Operating Transfers-In -12.06%-12.06%0.48%-0.26%2.21%2.91%1.05%1.05%1.05%1.05%1.05%1.05%
Total Source of Funds -3.64%-0.20%0.41%4.96%3.52%3.15%3.22%3.27%2.70%2.92%3.35%3.47%
During last year’s Finance Committee discussions, it was recommended that staff consider use
of a historical annual growth rate derived for each tax revenue source to project future revenue
streams. This methodology was used in the final forecast presented for Fiscal Years 2013 to
2023 and has been used in this forecast as well. The Compound Annual Growth Rates (CAGR)
utilized in this forecast are cited in each revenue section.
It is worth noting that in past forecasts a recession and falloff in economically sensitive
revenues was assumed once in every nine years. While staff did not pretend to predict the
exact timing of the recession, its inclusion in the forecast was to send a signal that a cyclical
event, whereby revenues can drop dramatically, will inevitably occur. By using an historical
average growth rate that incorporates the up and down cycles over the past 10 or 20 years,
there is no single year in which a downturn is depicted. Instead, past downturns (e.g. dot -com
bust and Great Recession) have been factored into the compound growth rate used to forecast
future revenue streams.
The graph below depicts a historical and projected view of the five major General Fund tax
revenues. It includes 10 years of actual revenue history; the projections for the remainder of FY
2014 based on actual data available for the first six months of the fiscal year; as well as the
projections for FY 2015 and the subsequent years of the Forecast, based on current available
data and application of the CAGR methodology. The following section is a detailed discussion
of General Fund Tax revenue and other major revenue sources by category.
City of Palo Alto Page 13
Sales Tax
The table below shows that sales taxes have improved markedly since FY 2010. Between FY
2010 and FY 2014, the Sales Tax receipts are projected to increase by nearly $10 million or 53
percent, with marked increases in FY 2013 and the estimate for FY 2014. Results for FY 2013
were $3.6 million over those in FY 2012. This growth was primarily due to unexpected receipts
from a single vendor in the last two quarters of FY 2013. Staff was able to meet with the
vendor and gain a better understanding of their sales model, the basis of receipts for the last
two quarters of FY 2013, the first two quarters of FY 2014, the last two quar ters of FY 2014, and
on a go forward basis. A FY 2014 midyear, upward adjustment in sales tax will be
recommended for City Council consideration.
FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014*
Revenue (in millions) $17.9 $20.6 $22.0 $25.6 $27.4
*projected revenue based on currently available information
However, staff believes that such marked year over year sales tax increases are not sustainable.
After controlling for the new revenue discussed above, the sales tax picture is of some concern.
In the past several quarters, revenues from a few key electronics firms and an auto dealer have
City of Palo Alto Page 14
fallen significantly. Unlike TOT, documentary, and property taxes, this revenue source is not
demonstrating significant growth. Historically, the top ten vendors within Palo Alto have
generated nearly 38-40 percent of sales tax revenues (excludes county pool revenue). This
shows that the City is vulnerable to swings in the performance of crucial firms. Further trend
data is needed before a determination can be made a s to whether the falloffs in electronic sales
are cyclical or ongoing. Additionally, consumers continue to shift their purchases from brick
and mortar to online retailers. On a positive note, restaurants and apparel stores have shown
increases. The Sales Tax generated by Palo Alto consumers, who may purchase goods from
online retailers, may only partially benefit the City of Palo Alto. Unless the point of sale for
online retailers is within Palo Alto, the City will not receive the full sales tax amounts generated
through the online purchases.
The CAGR applied to the period FY 2015 through FY 2024 is 2.5 percent which is in line with last
year’s forecast and with historical growth rates.
Property Tax
Following a historical pattern during recessions, property tax revenues decreased ever so
slightly between FY 2010 and FY 2011. Unlike many hard -hit jurisdictions, the City’s property
values did not fall precipitously and maintained their worth. Since FY 2011, revenues have
solidly increased due to short supply and strong demand. Between FY 2010 and FY 2014, the
Property Tax receipts are projected to increase by over $4 million or 16.5 percent, with marked
increases in FY 2013 and the estimate for FY 2014. Residential properties for sale continue to
receive multiple offers with bids and final sale prices exceeding list prices. According to one
Real Estate Web Site, home sale values surged from $1.23 million in 2009 to $1.8 million in
2013. A recent article in the Silicon Valley Business Journal indicated that a commercial
property on Lytton Avenue probably sold for more than $1,000 per square foot, a noteworthy
amount. Results below demonstrate the resiliency of the residential and commercial market in
Palo Alto. A FY 2014 midyear, upward adjustment in property tax will be recommended for City
Council consideration.
FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014
Revenue (in millions) $26.0 $25.7 $26.5 $28.7 $30.3*
*projected revenue based on currently available information
The City’s forecast for FY 2014 is based on historical trends and information garnered quarterly
from the County on appeals, additions to the roll, and movement in assessed values. Staff does
contact the School District for their assumptions in property tax growth. Last year, however,
PAUSD’s expected growth rate for FY 2014 was well below the City’s assumed growth rate.
City of Palo Alto Page 15
The CAGR applied to the period FY 2015 through FY 2024 is 5.4 percent which is higher than the
5.0 percent utilized in last year’s forecast. A buoyant residential and commercial property
market that is borne out by the number and value of documentary transfer tax transactions
indicates that a higher growth rate is warranted at this time. In January, staff hired a consultant
who can provide historical data on the number and value of transactions and the “hidden”
value that can be realized in the upcoming years due to Proposition 13. As staff engages with
the consultant, a better understanding of the assessed valuations can be achieved, which will
result in a refinement of the property tax revenue estimate analysis.
Transient Occupancy Tax
Despite the recessionary period, as outlined in the table below, during the last five years the
City’s Transient Occupancy Tax (TOT) receipts performed very well. Between FY 2010 a nd FY
2014, TOT receipts are projected to increase by over $5 million or 78 percent, with an annual
growth rate of 11 percent to 19 percent. Occupancy levels have risen considerably since FY
2010 continuing an approach toward full capacity in FY 2014. Anecdotal information indicates
that bookings are increasing in the customarily weak weekend period. With demand increasing
due to a vibrant business environment, both in Palo Alto and on the Peninsula, average daily
room rates have increased as well, contributing to higher tax receipts. A FY 2014 midyear,
upward adjustment in TOT receipts will be recommended for City Council consideration.
FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014
Revenue (in millions) $6.9 $8.1 $9.7 $10.8 $12.3*
Avg. Daily Room Rate $139 $147 $165 $182 $198 YTD
Occupancy
Percentage
66% 73% 79% 80% 82% YTD
*projected revenue based on currently available information
The Forecast includes estimated revenues for all of the new hotels the City anticipates opening
through FY 2018. These include: The Epiphany, Hilton Garden Inn, Hilton Homewood Suites,
Staybridge Suites, and a Westin Annex. It is important to note that revenue from the new
hotels has been identified by the Council’s Infrastructure Committee as a potential source for
issuing debt to fund needed capital improvements. Although, the recent annual growth rate has
been between 11 percent and 19 percent, the underlying CAGR used in last year’s forecast was
4.9 percent and staff has used the same percentage growth rate in this fo recast, primarily due
to the economic sensitivity of this revenue source.
City of Palo Alto Page 16
Documentary Transfer Tax
This economically sensitive revenue source has experienced ups and downs tied to the City’s
housing market. Between FY 2010 and FY 2014, Documentary Transfer Tax receipts are
projected to double from $3.7 million to $7.4 million, with an annual growth rate ranging from -
8 percent to 42 percent. Expecting this somewhat unpredictable revenue to revert more
toward the mean annual increases in FY 2014 staff budgeted $5.7 million. It now appears
reasonable to assume collections will exceed the prior year and yield approximately $7.4
million. Through November 2013, transactions and transaction value exceeded the same prior
year period by 9.4 and 52.7 percent, respectively. A FY 2014 midyear, upward adjustment in
Documentary Transfer Tax receipts will be recommended for City Council consideration. At this
time, given activity in the market, staff anticipates FY 2015 revenues of $7.4 million.
FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014
Revenue (in millions) $3.7 $5.2 $4.8 $6.8 $7.4*
*projected revenue based on currently available information
The CAGR applied in the FY 2013 LRFF was 7.4 percent. Staff has not replicated this growth
rate in projecting revenues through FY 2023, but has projected higher revenue levels that range
from $6.5 to $7.6 million. These levels are appreciably higher than those experienced from FY
2010 to FY 2012 and will be dependent on high transaction values and volume in the local
housing market.
Utility Users Tax
The City’s utility tax revenue is based on a 5 percent tax on electric, water, gas and telephone
usage. The revenue anticipated from utility usage is based on the Utilities Department’s 5 year
revenue and rate projections. These numbers could change as the department discusses its
proposed rate plan with the Utilities Advisory Commission and the Council during the annual
budget process. UUT from utility usage will be adjusted slightly upward at midyear to $8.2
million and is anticipated to remain relatively flat at $8.3 million in FY 2015.
Telephone receipts showed an uptick in FY 2013 which will result in an adjustment at midyear
from $2.8 million to $3.1 million. Unfortunately, there is little data available f rom
telecommunications providers that can provide more informed projections so a similar level of
revenue is anticipated in FY 2015.
City of Palo Alto Page 17
A FY 2014 midyear, upward adjustment in this tax category of less than $0.4 million will be
recommended for City Council consideration.
Other Taxes & Fines
Staff anticipates that revenue in this category will increase slightly in FY 2015 to $2.2 million.
The largest source of revenue in this category is derived from parking violations revenue, which
staff is estimating to be $1.7 million in FY 2015, a slight increase from the FY 2014 estimate of
$1.6 million. Other revenue items in this category, such as traffic violations, administrative
citations, and library fines and fees, also continue to grow, contributing to a 1.0 percent annual
growth in this category over the 10 year forecast.
Charges for Services
In FY 2014, total revenues in this category are projected to decrease by $1.0 million. In the
forthcoming FY 2014 Midyear Budget Review, staff will bring forward recommendations to
decrease the revenue estimate for this revenue categories for the reasons outlined below.
First, $0.5 million of the revenue estimate decrease is attributed to staff vacancies and the
temporary closure of the Palo Alto Animal Services spay and neuter clinic. More information
regarding the status of filling these positions and timing of the clinic’s reopening will be
included in the midyear budget report.
The second contributing factor to the decrease in the FY 2014 projected revenue estimate in
this category is due to planning and development services charges. This revenue stream is
expected to decrease by $0.5 million and is based on the first and second quarter actual
receipts and reflects a decline in development activity in comparison with the previous year.
A continued revenue decrease is included in the FY 2015 Forecast Budget. Compared to the FY
2014 Projected revenue estimate, the FY 2015 Forecast revenue estimate is net decreased by
an additional $1.2 million. The $1.2 million decrease includes a downward projection of
planning and development services charges (decrease of an additional $0.5 million) and a
downward projection of golf course revenue estimate (decrease of $1.5 million) due to the Golf
Course Reconfiguration Project (decrease of $1.5 million). The revenue decreases total $2.0
million and is offset primarily with assumed revenue from spay and neuter clinic (increase of
$0.5 million assumes a reopening of the clinic) and Fire Plan Inspection Services (increase of
$0.1 million to align the budgeted revenue with historical trends).
In the outer years, the forecast assumes roughly a 1.7 percent annual increase in this revenue
category beginning FY 2018 through 2024. This assumes that the Golf Course Reconfiguration
project is completed in FY 2016 and golf related revenue is equivalent to previous levels.
City of Palo Alto Page 18
Stanford Fire and Dispatch Services
The City has two separate agreements with Stanford University to provide Fire Response
services and Dispatch services. As part of these agreements to reimburse the City for Stanford’s
proportional share of these services, Stanford is charged 30.3 percent of the Fire Department’s
net cost and 16 percent of the Police Department’s Communication and Dispatch Division. The
FY 2015 base assumes a reimbursement of $7.8 million, which is a 4.8 percent decrease from
the FY 2014 adopted amount of $8.2 million.
Staff will recommend adjusting this revenue to $7.3 million in the FY 2014 Midyear Budget
Review report. There are two main drivers for this $844,000 downward adjustment. This
downward adjustment is related to FY 2013 and FY 2014 activity and billing corrections. The
adjusted related to FY 2013 totals $427,000 and is due to higher than anticipated revenue
(paramedic and plan check) and a correction to the contract annual billing. In FY 2014, the
reimbursement from Stanford was reviewed and revenue from Stanford was reduced to align
revenue and expense with budgeted cost and results in a $417,000 decrease. The total
$844,000 adjustment will be recommended as part of the FY 2014 Midyear Report. This will
bring the FY 2014 reimbursement from Stanford for both services to $7.3 million.
Compared to the FY 2014 projected, the FY 2015 reimbursement from Stanford is projected to
increase by 6.1 percent. This is a result of increases in salary and benefit costs offset by an
increased revenue credit for paramedic transports and hazardous materials inspections.
The term of the Fire Response service contract between the City and Stanford is throu gh
September 30, 2026; however, at Stanford’s request, the two parties have been in negotiations
over the past year to restructure the contract. On October 8, 2013, the City received a Notice of
Termination letter from Stanford with the intention to termin ate the contract with the City no
sooner than one year and no later than two years from the date of the notice. In order to plan
for a possible termination of services, the City requested that Stanford inform the City of the
final termination date at least three months in advance to allow for a structured potential
reduction in force in the City's Fire Department. On November 20, 2013, Stanford issued a
Request for Proposal (RFP) for Delivery of Fire Department Services for the campus with a
proposal submission deadline of January 31, 2014. The City submitted a proposal in response
to the RFP by the due date. The FY 2015 budget assumes the continuation of the contract,
because staff believes that the City of Palo Alto is best suited to provide Fire Protection Services
to Stanford. A modest annual increase of 3.0 percent has been built into the outer years to
account for increasing salary and benefit costs based on currently available information.
City of Palo Alto Page 19
Permits and Licenses
Revenue from permits and licenses has experienced consistent growth over the past several
years, primarily due to increased Development Services activity. In FY 2013, Permits and
Licenses revenue increased by 19.6 percent from FY 2012 levels. The increase was attributable
to a heightened amount of development activity coupled with the newly established citywide
Technology Enhancement Fee, which increased the majority of City fees by 5 percent. Based on
year-to-date activity levels, FY 2014 revenues are projected to decrease by 5.4 percent from the
adopted budget revenue estimate. The decline is attributable to lower than budgeted
Development Services activity, and downward adjustments made to a number of Police and
Fire Department fees in order to ensure cost -recovery. In FY 2015, revenues in this category
are expected to decrease an additional $0.4 million, or 5.4 percent, from the FY 2014 projected
level. It is assumed in the forecast that development related revenues will not exceed
development related expenditures, and revenues will fluctuate between declines of
approximately 2 percent in Fiscal Years 2016-2018, with increases ranging between 3.5-5
percent in Fiscal Years 2019 through 2024.
Return on Investment
Interest earnings continue to drop and will continue to be depressed as a consequence of the
Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing policy. General Fund income from this source has
dropped from $1.6 million in FY 2010 to $0.9 million in FY 2012 and to an expected $0.7 million
in FY 2014. As the Federal Reserve unwinds its easing (which it has begun) and rates begin to
increase (which they have not as of this writing), the City expects to experience a gradual
increase in this income stream.
Rental Income
The largest source of rental income comes from the City’s Enterprise Fun ds and the Cubberley
Community Center. Compared to the FY 2014 Adopted Budget, rental income will increase from
$12.9 million to $14.1 million, or 9 percent. An assessment of all General Fund properties that
was conducted in FY 2014 which results in an ongoing increase of approximately $1.2 million in
rental income to the General Fund for FY 2014. Of this amount, $0.6 million increase is from the
Utilities Funds, $60,000 from the Public Works Enterprise Funds, and $0.5 million from the
Internal Service Funds. Staff will recommend a $1.2 million revenue increase as part of the FY
2014 Midyear Budget Review. Please note that the $0.5 million rent revenue increase to the
General Fund from the Internal Service Funds will be recommended to be offset with an
increase in allocated charges of $0.2 million which will results in an overall $1.0 million net
positive impact to the General Fund.
City of Palo Alto Page 20
For this forecast period, a 2.5 percent growth was assumed for all rental properties, except for
the Refuse Fund rent which is assumed to remain constant until FY 2021 to account for the
closing costs related to the Middlefield Well landfill site.
Revenue from Other Agencies
Included in this category is funding from Community Services Outreach theatre programs,
reimbursements from the Palo Alto Unified School District (PAUSD) for various events, State of
California grants for Police, and Libraries and Community Services. Many of these revenue
streams are difficult to predict and are dedicated often to specific purposes. In this category
revenues over the past 5 fiscal years have ranged from $80,000 to $350,000. This forecast
assumes $253,000 for FY 2015 with a growth rate slightly lower than 1 percent in subsequent
years due to the unpredictability of this funding source .
Charges to Other Funds
Approximately 87 percent of this category is General Fund administrative cost plan charges to
the Enterprise and Internal Service Funds. The FY 2015 projected amount is $11.1 million, an
increase of 4.9 percent, from the FY 2014 adopted budget level. The increase is primarily
attributable to increased salary and benefit costs in the Administrative Services Departments.
The forecast includes increases ranging between 2.5 -3.5 percent each year based primarily on
assumed increases in salary and fringe costs.
Other Revenues
Major revenue sources in this category are Animal Services charges to Los Altos and Los Altos
Hills, reimbursements from PAUSD for its share of Cubberley and athletic field maintenance,
donations from non-profits for City libraries, and miscellaneous revenues. The FY 2014 adopted
budget includes a one-time $0.5 million donation from the Palo Alto Library Foundation, which
is removed in the FY 2015 base. The FY 2015 projected revenue is $1.5 million, with a 2 percent
annual increase forecasted beginning FY 2016.
Operating Transfers In
Operating Transfers include the equity transfer from the Electric and Gas Funds as well as
transfers from the University Ave Parking Permit Fund. In accordance with a methodology
approved by Council in June 2009, the equity transfer is calculated by applying a rate of return
to the capital asset base of the Electric and Gas Funds. This rate of return is based on PG&E's
rate of return on equity as approved by the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC). The
equity transfer from the Electric and Gas Funds is projected to increase from $17.0 million in FY
2014 to $17.1 million in FY 2015. Using the Utility Department’s projections from the Electric
and Gas Five Year Financial Forecasts as approved by the City Council in spring 2013, the equity
City of Palo Alto Page 21
transfer is projected to decrease slightly in FY 2016 (0.3 percent) and then increase by one to
two percent over the forecast period.
Expenditure Cost Elements
The General Fund expenditure categories have been adjusted with FY 2014 Adopted Budget
one-time expenditures and major cost elements, including adjustments to the City’s allocated
charges and cost plan, library closures and reopening, rent to non-General Fund departments
and funds, and the Golf Course Reconfiguration project and associated debt issuance. The
tables below display the General Fund expense forecast. Compared to FY 2014 projected, FY
2015 expenditures are estimated to increase by $5.3 million, or 3.3 percent primarily due to
increased salary and benefits, rents and leases, and allocated charges costs from Enterprise
Funds and Internal Service Funds as well as a change in the budgeting methodology for vacant
positions. The change in budgeting methodology for vacant positions, which assumes that for
vacant positions as of August 2013, the full cost of benefits will be included in departmental
budgets, is offset with a higher assumed vacancy savings factor for departments based on a
historical analysis. As part of the FY 2015 Proposed Budget process, this information will be
updated.
Adopted Projected
2014 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Expenditures
Salaries $62,720 $61,899 $62,884 $64,094 $65,329 $66,588 $67,872 $69,183 $70,519 $71,882 $73,273 $74,691
Benefits 36,927 36,327 41,646 43,765 46,915 50,269 53,734 57,392 60,053 62,110 64,285 66,595
Subtotal: Salaries and Benefits 99,647 98,226 104,529 107,859 112,243 116,857 121,606 126,575 130,572 133,992 137,558 141,286
Contract Services 13,341 13,763 12,522 13,222 13,552 13,891 14,238 14,594 14,959 15,333 15,717 16,109
Supplies & Materials 3,912 3,924 3,408 3,530 3,618 3,709 3,801 3,896 3,994 4,094 4,196 4,301
General Expense 4,869 5,346 4,858 5,009 5,135 5,265 5,399 5,106 5,236 5,369 5,506 5,647
Cubberley Lease 7,268 7,268 7,486 7,711 7,942 8,180 8,426 8,678 8,939 9,207 9,483 9,768
Rents & Leases 1,210 1,210 1,354 1,395 1,437 1,480 1,524 1,570 1,617 1,666 1,716 1,767
Facilities & Equipment 476 553 469 489 502 514 527 540 554 568 582 596
Allocated Charges 14,927 15,075 15,354 15,662 15,975 16,294 16,620 16,953 17,292 17,637 17,990 18,350
Total Non-Sal/Ben Exps Before Transfers46,003 47,139 45,452 47,017 48,161 49,334 50,536 51,338 52,590 53,873 55,189 56,538
Operating Transfers Out 843 1,842 2,071 1,976 1,976 1,976 1,976 1,976 1,976 1,738 1,738 1,738
Transfer to Infrastructure 13,226 13,226 13,659 14,000 14,351 14,709 15,077 15,454 15,840 16,236 16,642 17,058
Total Use of Funds $159,719 $160,433 $165,711 $170,852 $176,730 $182,876 $189,195 $195,343 $200,978 $205,839 $211,126 $216,619
Adopted Projected
2014 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Expenditures
Salaries 9.64%8.21%0.26%1.92%1.93%1.93%1.93%1.93%1.93%1.93%1.93%1.94%
Benefits -2.08%-3.67%12.78%5.09%7.20%7.15%6.89%6.81%4.64%3.42%3.50%3.59%
Subtotal: Salaries and Benefits 4.99%3.49%4.90%3.19%4.06%4.11%4.06%4.09%3.16%2.62%2.66%2.71%
Contract Services 16.89%20.59%-6.14%5.59%2.50%2.50%2.50%2.50%2.50%2.50%2.50%2.50%
Supplies & Materials 34.74%35.13%-12.90%3.59%2.50%2.50%2.50%2.50%2.50%2.50%2.50%2.50%
General Expense 47.15%61.56%-0.22%3.10%2.52%2.53%2.54%-5.43%2.53%2.54%2.55%2.56%
Cubberley Lease 2.45%2.45%3.00%3.00%3.00%3.00%3.00%3.00%3.00%3.00%3.00%3.00%
Rents & Leases 5.00%5.00%11.94%3.00%3.00%3.00%3.00%3.00%3.00%3.00%3.00%3.00%
Facilities & Equipment -35.71%-25.30%-1.41%4.25%2.50%2.50%2.50%2.50%2.50%2.50%2.50%2.50%
Allocated Charges -14.57%-13.72%2.87%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%
Total Non-Sal/Ben Exps Before Transfers4.35%6.93%-1.20%3.44%2.43%2.44%2.44%1.59%2.44%2.44%2.44%2.44%
Operating Transfers Out -70.25%-34.95%145.77%-4.59%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-12.05%0.00%0.00%
Transfer to Infrastructure -40.58%-40.58%3.27%2.50%2.50%2.50%2.50%2.50%2.50%2.50%2.50%2.50%
Total Use of Funds -2.66%-2.23%3.75%3.10%3.44%3.48%3.46%3.25%2.88%2.42%2.57%2.60%
City of Palo Alto Page 22
Salary and Benefits
Salary
The Forecast is consistent with the City’s change in salary budget methodology that was
implemented as part of the FY 2014 Adopted Budget. As such, positions are b udgeted at actual
rate of pay including benefits as of fall 2013. Then, by position, salary costs are updated in
accordance with applicable Memoranda of Understanding between the City and its bargaining
groups. The Forecast also assumes a pay-for-performance increase for Management and
Professional employees.
Consistent with the previous forecast, this Forecast includes a salary reserve that accounts for a
potential employee salary increases. This salary reserve is set aside for planning purposes only
and does not reflect a commitment from the City to increase employees’ salaries and
associated benefits. Any changes to employees’ salaries and benefits are part of the meet and
confer process with the City’s employee groups, as applicable. The pending nego tiations with
labor groups may impact the salary costs for FY 2015 Budget. Any such impacts will be
included, as necessary, in the development of the FY 2015 Proposed Budget, which is scheduled
for release to the City Council late April 2014.
Benefits
Pension
The forecast includes the most recent pension rates from CalPERS which, compared to the FY
2014 rates, represent a 1.5 percentage point increase in pension contribution rate for
miscellaneous groups (from 24.60 percent to 26.12 percent) and 6.1 percentage point increase
in the pension contribution rate for safety groups (from 33.44 percent to 39.52 percent) for FY
2015.
As presented to the Finance Committee at the December 3, 2013 Finance Committee Meeting
(Item 3), the primary reasons for the increase in the City’s contribution rates for FY 2015 was
the 0.1 percent investment earnings for FY 2012 partially offset with the 12 percent investment
earnings for FY 2013. Starting with FY 2016, increases to the City contribution rate are primarily
due to actuarial assumption and valuation policy changes.
In March 2012 the CalPERS Board reduced the earnings interest assumption rate or discount
rate from 7.75 percent to 7.5 percent, and subsequently approved a two-year phase-in of the
associated rate increases. Further, at the December 17, 2013 CalPERS Finance Committee, the
Finance Committee approved new demographic assumptions, which, if approved by the
CalPERS Board in February, will increase the City’s Pension Contribution rates starting FY 2017.
City of Palo Alto Page 23
The City’s pension contribution rates in this Forecast assume that the CalPERS Board will
approve the demographic assumption changes. Specifically, with FY 2017 and FY 2020, the
pension contribution rate will increase by 1.0 percentage point annually for the miscellaneous
groups and 1.4 percentage points annually for the safety groups.
The below table outlines the City’s pension contribution rates used in the forecast where rates
for FY 2021 and beyond assume a 5 percent point increase for miscellaneous and a 7 percent
point increase for safety.
FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023
Miscellaneous Employees 24.600%26.122%27.600%29.000%30.500%31.900%33.400%33.400%33.400%33.400%
Demographic Assumptions (5% smoothed over
5 years starting FY 2017)1.000%2.000%3.000%4.000%5.000%5.000%5.000%
Total Rate for Miscellaneous Employees 24.600%26.122%27.600%30.000%32.500%34.900%37.400%38.400%38.400%38.400%
Safety Employees 33.440%39.528%42.100%44.600%47.200%49.700%52.200%52.200%52.200%52.200%
Demographic Assumptions (7% smoothed over
5 years starting FY 2017)
1.400%2.800%4.200%5.600%7.000%7.000%7.000%
Total Rate for Safety Employees 33.440%39.528%42.100%46.000%50.000%53.900%57.800%59.200%59.200%59.200%
During the last year, CalPERS closed the 30-year amortization period and changed the
smoothing period from fifteen to five years. By closing the 30-year amortization period, given
today’s actuarial assumptions and valuation policies, CalPERS requires that the annual required
contribution be set at a level which ensures that the unfunded liability will be paid off at the
end of the amortization period. By reducing the smoothing period from fifteen to five years,
any actuarial and discount rate assumptions as well as gains and losses are accounted for in the
pension contribution rates within five years. CalPERS believes that these new policies will
provide less volatility in extreme years where significant gains or losses are realized, helps
improve the funded status, adds additional transparency to member agencies’ future
contribution requirements, and suppresses assumption changes through automatic smoothing.
These rates do not assume any potential rate increases from likely future assumption changes,
any positive impacts of the California Public Employees’ Pension Reform Act (PEPRA) of 2013, or
any changes to participant demographics. The PEPRA mandated third pension tier (2 percent a t
62) for new employees went into effect on January 1, 2013. The pension rates included in this
forecast represents actuarial data as of June 30, 2012 and the rates that incorporate this
savings will not be available until the valuation that will set the F Y 2016 rates (available
sometime early winter 2014).
Healthcare
In previous Forecasts, a 10 percent annual increase for health care costs was assumed. A 10 -
year historical trend analysis indicated that an 8 percent inflation factor is more in line with
City of Palo Alto Page 24
actual trends experienced by the City. Therefore, this Forecast assumes an annual health care
cost inflator of 8 percent. Consistent with the previous forecast and with historical trends, the
2015-2024 Long Range Financial Forecast assumes a 4 percent increase for dental and vision
costs for outer years.
This Forecast includes the Annual Required Contribution from the May 2012 actuarial valuation
for the City’s retiree healthcare plans. The data used in this valuation is based on information as
of June 30, 2011. An updated valuation report is scheduled for release in March 2014. Any
changes in costs due to the new valuation will be incorporated in the FY 2015 Proposed Budget.
The Affordable Care Act includes provisions which stipulate that the City off ers healthcare
benefits for specific hourly staff meeting certain work-schedule requirements. At this time, staff
has identified six employees eligible for this program with a cost to the City of approximately
$60,000 per year. As part of the development of the FY 2015 Proposed Budget, this cost will be
further analyzed.
The FY 2014 projected budget includes an additional $1.5 million in salary and benefits savings.
This additional savings is based on staff’s projections as of the beginning of November 2013.
Staff will provide an update to this amount in the midyear report.
Contract Services
The FY 2014 Adopted Budget included $13.7 million to fund contract services. The FY 2015
Forecast budget for Contract Services is adjusted for one-time expenditures as included in the
FY 2014 Adopted Budget (e.g.: $0.8 million for projects in the Planning and Community
Environment Department such as a community engagement process for the Arts and
Innovation District Area (27 University Avenue), downtown parking stud y, Comprehensive Plan
update, and Climate Protection Plan update) or ongoing expenditures approved by the City
Council after the adoption of the budget (e.g.: $0.4 million for landscape services at parks and
City facilities). These adjustments result in a net decrease of $1.2 million in contract expenses
to $12.5 million for the FY 2015 Forecast Budget.
In the out-years of the Forecast, 2.5 percent of annual growth for contract services is assumed.
This is aligned to the 20 year historical average of the San Francisco Metropolitan Statistical
Area Consumer Price Index – All Urban Consumers of 2.6 percent.
Supplies & Materials
This category remains at $3.9 million in the FY 2014 Adopted budget and the projection for the
current year. Compared to the FY 2014 Adopted, the FY 2015 Forecast Budget is decreased by
$0.5 million primarily due to the removal of the purchase of library materials funded through a
City of Palo Alto Page 25
donation from the Palo Alto Library Foundation. For the out-years of the Forecast, it is assumed
that costs will increase based on the 2.5 percent annual increase.
General Expense
This category includes costs for travel and meetings, telephone and non-city utilities,
contingency accounts, subsidies and grants provided through the Human Resource Allocation
Process, and debt service payments for the Master Lease-Purchase Agreement related to the
golf course. Projected FY 2014 expenses are $5.3 million, and is primarily due to a one-time
$0.6 million increase for the November 2013 Measure D election costs. This amount was
removed from the FY 2015 Forecast budget. Beginning FY 2016, this category assumes an
annual 2.5 percent increase.
Cubberley Lease
The forecast assumes a 3.0 percent annual CPI increase for the least payments to the Palo Alto
Unified School District (PAUSD) for the Cubberley facility. This results in a $0.2 million increase
from $7.3 million to $7.5 million in the Cubberley lease expense in FY 2015.
Rents & Leases
Rent and Lease expenses for FY 2015 are estimated to increase by $144,000 from the FY 2014
level of $1.2 million to account for higher lease costs for the Development Center. From FY
2016 onwards, this expense is expected to increase by 3.0 percent per year.
Facilities & Equipment
Facilities and equipment expenses for FY 2014 is projected to be $0.5 million and will remain
consistent in FY 2015 onward. The base model assumes a 3.0 percent annual increase starting
in FY 2016.
Allocated Charges
Allocated charges represent expense allocations by the City’s enterprise and internal services
funds for services and products they provide to General Fund departments. In FY 2015, these
charges are estimated at $15.3 million including utilities usage (28 .1 percent or $4.3 million),
liability insurance (4.6 percent or $0.7 million), technology costs (35.9 percent, or $5.5 million),
vehicle equipment and replacement costs (24.8 percent or $3.8 million), and other costs (6.5
percent, or $1.0 million). The FY 2015 charges of the forecast updates the revenue and expense
for these cost plans based on the most current information available at the time of Forecast
development. Growth of 2.0 percent is anticipated in the outer years, which is based on the
average annual expense growth over the forecast period.
City of Palo Alto Page 26
Operating Transfers Out
Operating Transfers Out include transfers from the General Fund to the Debt Service Fund,
Technology Fund, and Airport Fund. FY 2014 projected transfers out total $1.8 million which is
an increase of $1.0 million compared to the FY 2014 adopted budget amount. This increase
represents the estimated technology fee proceeds generated from the majority of Municipal
Fees and collected in the General Fund. As part of the FY 2014 Midyear Budget Review, staff
will bring forward recommendations to transfer this estimated amount from the General Fund
to the Technology Fund for citywide technology initiatives. In FY 2015, an increase in this
expense category of $0.3 million is assumed due to the anticipated issuance of debt related to
the golf course reconfiguration, increasing the total amount for the FY 2015 Forecast Budget to
$2.1 million.
Projected FY 2014 and FY 2015 transfers out include a $0.1 million annual transfer to the
Technology Fund for the Library Virtual Branch . This transfer is projected to end in FY 2016
lowering the transfers out to $2.0 million.
Debt service payments for the 2002 issuance of certificates of participation for the Downtown
Parking Improvement Project end in FY 2022. As a result, transfers to the Debt Service Fund
decrease by $0.2 million and overall transfers out decrease to $1.8 million.
A $0.3 million transfer to the Airport Fund from the General Fund is included in FY 2014
projected amounts and it is unknown when the Airport Fund will be self-sustaining; therefore,
this transfer continues in FY 2015 and the outer years of this Forecast. Staff is evaluating the
potential costs to operate the Palo Alto Airport and will bring forward funding
recommendations and potential increased loan amounts as part of the FY 2015 Proposed
Budget.
Transfer to Infrastructure
In FY 2014, adopted and projected transfers to the capital project fund remain at $13.2 million
and increase by $0.4 million, or 3.3 percent, in FY 2015. Future year projections are based on
anticipated 2.5 percent CPI increases.
Revenue and Expenditure Impacts Not Assumed in the Forecast
This Forecast assesses the City’s future financial condition based on assumptions that are
known and measurable at the time of publication of this document. The Forecast is not a
prediction or a commitment of resources. Due to uncertainties and pending future City Council
City of Palo Alto Page 27
decisions, this Forecast does not include certain potential revenue and expenditure impacts as
outlined below.
Employee Compensation
Employee Negotiations and Compensation Studies
As of publication of this forecast, negotiations for the Service Employees International Union
(SEIU) are in process. Effective June 30, 2014, the compensation plan for the
Management/Professional group and the contracts for the Fire Chiefs’ Association (FCA), the
Police Managers’ Association, the International Association of Fire Fighters (IAFF), and the Palo
Alto Police Officers’ Association (PAPOA) expire. In addition, the contract for the Utilities
Management and Professional Association of Palo Alto (UMPAPA) expires on December 31,
2014. The People Strategy and Operations Department is conducting a compensation study for
SEIU, a compensation survey of sworn Fire and Police classifications, and an update of the 2013
Management and Professional Compensation Study. Future salary and benefit impacts resulting
from these negotiations are not incorporated into this forecast.
Cadillac Tax of Healthcare Plans
Beginning 2018, a 40 percent excise tax will be imposed on the value of health insurance
benefits that exceed a certain threshold. It is expected that this tax will be included in the cost
of the health care premiums. CalPERS plans to design healthcare premiums to stay below the
threshold and discussions are in the preliminary stage. As of publication of t his Forecast, the
impact to FY 2018 is unknown.
Savings from Third Pension Tier
The PEPRA mandated third pension tier (2 percent at 62) for new employees went into effect
on January 1, 2013. The pension rates included in this forecast represents actuaria l data as of
June 30, 2012 and the rates that will incorporate any savings from the PEPRA tier will not be
available until the CalPERS valuation scheduled for release in early winter 2014.
Retiree Healthcare Plan Actuarial Valuation
This Forecast includes the Annual Required Contribution from the May 2012 actuarial valuation
for the City’s retiree healthcare plans. The data used in this valuation was information as of
June 30, 2011. An updated valuation report is scheduled to be presented to the Finance
Committee in March 2014.
City of Palo Alto Page 28
City Operations
Termination of the Stanford Fire/Communications Contract
The City received notice from Stanford University terminating the Fire/Communications
Contract with the University effective October 2014. Subsequently, St anford issued a Request
for Proposals (RFP) for the provision of Fire Services to the campus early December 2013. Late
January, the City submitted a proposal in response to the RFP. This Forecast assumes no impact
to revenues and expenditures related to this contract.
Airport Operations
Management and control of the Palo Alto Airport is expected to transition from the County
effective July 1, 2014. This Forecast assumes an annual $0.3 million General Fund loan to pay
for airport staffing, legal, and consulting costs. At this time, staff is evaluating the potential
costs to operate the Palo Alto Airport and will bring forward funding recommendations and
potential increased loan amounts as part of the FY 2015 Proposed Budget. This Forecast does
not assume any repayments of the loan due to the uncertainty regarding the Airport’s Fund
future fiscal stability.
Impact of the Local, Regional, and National Economy
As with all forecasts, there is uncertainty regarding revenue impacts due to changes in the local,
regional, and/or national economy.
Alternative FY 2015-2024 Long Range Financial Forecast
During the last year, the City’s Infrastructure Committee discussed the City’s infrastructure
needs and potential funding sources. One of the potential funding sou rces identified is a
projected increase in Transient Occupancy Tax (TOT) receipts due to several new hotels
scheduled to open during the next few years. The table below provides an alternative FY 2015-
2024 Long Range Financial Forecast view which identifies the estimated additional TOT receipts
starting in the current fiscal year escalated by the Compound Annual Growth Rate assumed in
this Forecast as well as the annual debt service of $2.5 million. Given today’s municipal bond
market, staff estimates that the issuance of approximately $33.6 million in Certificates of
Participation to fund a Public Safety building will require an annual debt service of $2.5 million
for 30 years.
In this alternative Forecast, with the dedication of the increased TOT receipts towards an
annual debt service of $2.5 million, surpluses range between $1.3 million and $6.4 million with
an approximate cumulative one-time surplus of $25.0 million, approximately $23 million less
City of Palo Alto Page 29
than the base model and the cumulative Net Operating Margin is reduced by $2.5 million to
$5.1 million from $7.6 million.
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
TOT from New Hotels 297 1,546 2,626 3,111 3,597 3,783 3,981 4,192 4,415 4,653 4,906
Total Revenues $166,306 $166,982 $175,269 $181,439 $187,159 $193,184 $199,502 $204,898 $210,886 $217,948 $225,519
Estimated Debt Service for
Public Safety Building 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500
Total Expenditures 160,433 165,711 173,352 179,230 185,376 191,695 197,843 203,478 208,339 213,626 219,119
Net One-Time Surplus (Shortfall)$5,873 $1,270 $1,917 $2,208 $1,784 $1,488 $1,659 $1,420 $2,547 $4,322 $6,400
Cumulative One-Time Surplus (Shortfall)$25,016
Net Operating Margin $0 $0 $647 $291 ($425)($295)$171 ($239)$1,127 $1,775 $2,078
Cumulative Net Operating Margin $5,130
Conclusion
Although this Forecast projects a slight General Fund surplus of $1.3 million for FY 2015 and
overall a positive financial outlook for the City, a cautionary note needs to be struck. The City
Council has directed staff to develop Our Palo Alto, a comprehensive and multi-faceted resident
engagement process, develop a Transportation Demand Management program, and address
parking within the City.
These directions are aligned with the City Council priorities as approved during the City Council
retreat on February 1. 2014:
1. Comprehensive planning and action on land use and transportation: The Built
Environment, Transportation, Mobility, Parking and Livability
2. Infrastructure Strategy and Funding
3. Technology and the Connected City
Further, the City is facing major challenges to maintain its infrastructure, experiences growing
unfunded liabilities for pension and retiree healthcare benefits, and seeks to remain a
competitive employer to keep and attract a talented workforce. These strategic long -term
efforts will require additional funding in the FY 2015 Proposed Budget and beyond.
During the next two months, staff will continue to monitor revenue sources as well as update
revenues and expenditures, as applicable, based on newly available information . This updated
information will be reflected in the FY 2015 Proposed Budget, which is scheduled to be released
to the City Council late April 2014.
City of Palo Alto Page 30
Attachments:
Attachment A: FY 2015-2024 Long Range Financial Forecast (PDF)
i UCLA Anderson Forecast, News Release of December 5, 2013
ii UCLA Anderson Forecast, News Release of September 12, 2013
iii The Conference Board, Consumer Confidence Survey, January 28, 2014,
http://www.conference-board.org/data/consumerconfidence.cfm
iv Bureau of Labor Statistics, January 28, 2014
v UCLA Anderson Forecast, News Release of December 5, 2013
vi CoreLogic Home Price Index Report, December 2013
vii MuniServices Economic Overview, 3Q2013 News
viii Ibid.
ix The Weekly Briefing, CA State Treasurer’s Office, Jan. 27, 2014
x The Weekly Briefing, CA State Treasurer’s Office, Nov. 4, 2013
xi The Weekly Briefing, CA State Treasurer’s Office, Jan. 27, 2014
xii Beaconomics, Fall 2013
xiii Ibid.
xiv The 2014-15 Budget: California’s Fiscal Outlook. California Legislative Analyst’s Office, November 20, 2013
xv Beaconomics, Fall 2013
ATTACHMENT A
General Fund Long Range Financial Forecast
Base Model
Fiscal Years 2015 to 2024
Adopted Projected
2014 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Revenues
Sales Taxes $23,846 $27,352 $25,660 $26,256 $26,711 $27,269 $27,915 $28,599 $29,317 $30,091 $30,903 $31,769
Property Taxes 29,613 30,250 31,835 33,541 35,353 37,264 39,297 41,464 43,774 46,107 48,503 51,088
Transient Occupancy Tax 11,545 12,318 14,156 16,487 17,645 18,848 19,822 20,863 21,965 23,137 24,382 25,709
Documentary Transfer Tax 5,699 7,395 7,414 6,562 6,619 6,685 6,792 6,914 7,052 7,222 7,431 7,654
Utility User Tax 11,013 11,386 11,285 11,761 12,373 12,584 12,973 13,384 13,815 14,264 14,628 15,097
Other Taxes & Fines 2,107 2,107 2,206 2,228 2,251 2,273 2,296 2,319 2,342 2,365 2,389 2,413
Subtotal: Taxes 83,823 90,808 92,556 96,835 100,951 104,923 109,095 113,543 118,265 123,186 128,236 133,730
Charges for Services 16,203 15,252 14,098 17,250 18,005 18,296 18,594 18,901 19,216 19,540 19,873 20,215
Stanford Fire and Dispatch Services 8,176 7,332 7,782 8,015 8,256 8,504 8,759 9,021 9,292 9,571 9,858 10,154
Permits & Licenses 8,346 7,777 7,355 7,207 7,064 6,911 7,153 7,403 7,699 8,084 8,489 8,913
Return on Investment 769 701 685 699 716 733 751 770 790 814 840 869
Rental Income 12,891 14,010 14,080 14,490 14,852 15,223 15,604 15,994 15,151 14,626 14,992 15,367
From Other Agencies 253 313 253 253 254 255 256 258 259 261 262 264
Charges to Other Funds 10,574 10,574 11,081 11,443 11,846 12,267 12,699 13,112 13,494 13,840 14,198 14,570
Other Revenues 2,010 2,010 1,480 1,510 1,540 1,571 1,602 1,634 1,667 1,700 1,734 1,769
Total Non‐Tax Revenues 59,221 57,969 56,813 60,867 62,532 63,759 65,418 67,093 67,569 68,436 70,246 72,120
Operating Transfers‐In 17,529 17,529 17,612 17,567 17,956 18,478 18,671 18,866 19,064 19,263 19,465 19,670
Total Source of Funds $160,573 $166,306 $166,982 $175,269 $181,439 $187,159 $193,184 $199,502 $204,898 $210,886 $217,948 $225,519
Expenditures
Salaries $62,720 $61,899 $62,884 $64,094 $65,329 $66,588 $67,872 $69,183 $70,519 $71,882 $73,273 $74,691
Benefits 36,927 36,327 41,646 43,765 46,915 50,269 53,734 57,392 60,053 62,110 64,285 66,595
Subtotal: Salaries and Benefits 99,647 98,226 104,529 107,859 112,243 116,857 121,606 126,575 130,572 133,992 137,558 141,286
Contract Services 13,341 13,763 12,522 13,222 13,552 13,891 14,238 14,594 14,959 15,333 15,717 16,109
Supplies & Materials 3,912 3,924 3,408 3,530 3,618 3,709 3,801 3,896 3,994 4,094 4,196 4,301
General Expense 4,869 5,346 4,858 5,009 5,135 5,265 5,399 5,106 5,236 5,369 5,506 5,647
Cubberley Lease 7,268 7,268 7,486 7,711 7,942 8,180 8,426 8,678 8,939 9,207 9,483 9,768
Rents & Leases 1,210 1,210 1,354 1,395 1,437 1,480 1,524 1,570 1,617 1,666 1,716 1,767
Facilities & Equipment 476 553 469 489 502 514 527 540 554 568 582 596
Allocated Charges 14,927 15,075 15,354 15,662 15,975 16,294 16,620 16,953 17,292 17,637 17,990 18,350
Total Non‐Sal/Ben Exps Before Tra 46,003 47,139 45,452 47,017 48,161 49,334 50,536 51,338 52,590 53,873 55,189 56,538
Operating Transfers Out 843 1,842 2,071 1,976 1,976 1,976 1,976 1,976 1,976 1,738 1,738 1,738
Transfer to Infrastructure 13,226 13,226 13,659 14,000 14,351 14,709 15,077 15,454 15,840 16,236 16,642 17,058
Total Use of Funds $159,719 $160,433 $165,711 $170,852 $176,730 $182,876 $189,195 $195,343 $200,978 $205,839 $211,126 $216,619
One‐Time Net Surplus/(Shortfall) $854 $5,873 $1,270 $4,417 $4,708 $4,284 $3,988 $4,159 $3,920 $5,047 $6,822 $8,900
Cumulative One‐Time Surplus (Shortfall)$46,246
Net Operating Margin $0 $3,147 $291 ($425) ($295) $171 ($239) $1,127 $1,775 $2,078
Cumulative Net Operating Margin $7,630
2/12/2014
ATTACHMENT A
General Fund Long Range Financial Forecast
Base Model
Fiscal Years 2015 to 2024
Adopted Projected
2014 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Revenues
Sales Taxes ‐6.87% 6.82%‐6.19% 2.32% 1.73% 2.09% 2.37% 2.45% 2.51% 2.64% 2.70% 2.80%
Property Taxes 3.03% 5.25% 5.24% 5.36% 5.40% 5.41% 5.46% 5.51% 5.57% 5.33% 5.20% 5.33%
Transient Occupancy Tax 6.96% 14.13% 14.92% 16.47% 7.02% 6.82% 5.17% 5.25% 5.28% 5.34% 5.38% 5.44%
Documentary Transfer Tax ‐16.31% 8.60% 0.26%‐11.50% 0.87% 1.00% 1.60% 1.80% 2.00% 2.40% 2.90% 3.00%
Utility User Tax 1.40% 4.84%‐0.89% 4.22% 5.20% 1.71% 3.09% 3.17% 3.22% 3.25% 2.55% 3.21%
Other Taxes & Fines ‐2.11%‐2.11% 4.72% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%
Subtotal: Taxes ‐1.34% 6.88% 1.93% 4.62% 4.25% 3.93% 3.98% 4.08% 4.16% 4.16% 4.10% 4.28%
Charges for Services ‐9.24%‐14.57%‐7.56% 22.36% 4.38% 1.61% 1.63% 1.65% 1.67% 1.69% 1.70% 1.72%
Stanford Fire and Dispatch Services 2.89%‐7.73% 6.14% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Permits & Licenses ‐3.42%‐10.00%‐5.43%‐2.01%‐1.99%‐2.16% 3.50% 3.50% 4.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00%
Return on Investment ‐18.89%‐26.10%‐2.20% 2.00% 2.38% 2.41% 2.46% 2.51% 2.66% 3.01% 3.26% 3.36%
Rental Income 0.09% 8.78% 0.50% 2.91% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%‐5.27%‐3.47% 2.50% 2.50%
From Other Agencies 6.31% 31.88%‐19.39% 0.30% 0.35% 0.40% 0.45% 0.50% 0.55% 0.60% 0.65% 0.70%
Charges to Other Funds ‐9.51%‐9.51% 4.79% 3.27% 3.52% 3.55% 3.52% 3.25% 2.92% 2.56% 2.59% 2.62%
Other Revenues 29.29% 29.29%‐26.37% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00%
Total Non‐Tax Revenues ‐4.09%‐6.11%‐1.99% 7.14% 2.73% 1.96% 2.60% 2.56% 0.71% 1.28% 2.65% 2.67%
Operating Transfers‐In ‐12.06%‐12.06% 0.48%‐0.26% 2.21% 2.91% 1.05% 1.05% 1.05% 1.05% 1.05% 1.05%
Total Source of Funds ‐3.64%‐0.20% 0.41% 4.96% 3.52% 3.15% 3.22% 3.27% 2.70% 2.92% 3.35% 3.47%
Expenditures
Salaries 9.64% 8.21% 0.26% 1.92% 1.93% 1.93% 1.93% 1.93% 1.93% 1.93% 1.93% 1.94%
Benefits ‐2.08%‐3.67% 12.78% 5.09% 7.20% 7.15% 6.89% 6.81% 4.64% 3.42% 3.50% 3.59%
Subtotal: Salaries and Benefits 4.99% 3.49% 4.90% 3.19% 4.06% 4.11% 4.06% 4.09% 3.16% 2.62% 2.66% 2.71%
Contract Services 16.89% 20.59%‐6.14% 5.59% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%
Supplies & Materials 34.74% 35.13%‐12.90% 3.59% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%
General Expense 47.15% 61.56%‐0.22% 3.10% 2.52% 2.53% 2.54%‐5.43% 2.53% 2.54% 2.55% 2.56%
Cubberley Lease 2.45% 2.45% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Rents & Leases 5.00% 5.00% 11.94% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Facilities & Equipment ‐35.71%‐25.30%‐1.41% 4.25% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%
Allocated Charges ‐14.57%‐13.72% 2.87% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00%
Total Non‐Sal/Ben Exps Before Tra 4.35% 6.93%‐1.20% 3.44% 2.43% 2.44% 2.44% 1.59% 2.44% 2.44% 2.44% 2.44%
Operating Transfers Out ‐70.25%‐34.95% 145.77%‐4.59% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%‐12.05% 0.00% 0.00%
Transfer to Infrastructure ‐40.58%‐40.58% 3.27% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%
Total Use of Funds ‐2.66%‐2.23% 3.75% 3.10% 3.44% 3.48% 3.46% 3.25% 2.88% 2.42% 2.57% 2.60%
2/12/2014