Loading...
HomeMy WebLinkAboutStaff Report 14610 City of Palo Alto (ID # 14610) Utilities Advisory Commission Staff Report Meeting Date: 10/12/2022 Report Type: VII. NEW BUSINESS City of Palo Alto Page 1 Title: Discussion and Update of Sanitary Sewer Main Replacement Acceleration Alternatives From: Director of Utilities Lead Department: Utilities Recommendation This item is for the Utilities Advisory Commission’s (UAC) information and discussion; no action is requested. At the UAC’s April 2022 meeting, staff presented the need to increase the rate of sewer main replacement from 1 mile per year to 2.5 miles per year in order to replace the remaining 138 miles of sewer mains before they exceed their expected life. UAC Commissioners expressed support for increasing the rate of sewer main replacement to 2.5 miles per year. Staff seeks input from the UAC on how quickly to move to a 2.5 mile per year rate of sanitary sewer main replacement given the associated impacts on customer wastewater collection rates. The attached presentation describes four alternative approaches to accelerate the sanitary sewer main replacement and illustrates the preliminary rate increase projections needed to achieve the proposed main replacement for each alternative. Staff will continue to update and refine these estimates in light of changing economic conditions, and the availability of updated financial information from fiscal year end 2022. Staff plans to bring this item to the Finance Committee in November for information and discussion. Staff plans to then return to the UAC with Preliminary Financial Forecasts in December and with proposed Financial Plans and rates in March of 2023. Attachments: • Attachment A: Presentation 2 Packet Pg. 10 Sewer Capital Investment Needs Utilities Advisory Commission October 12, 2022 www.cityofpaloalto.org/fiscalsustainability1 • CITY OF PALO ALTO 2.a Packet Pg. 11 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t A : P r e s e n t a t i o n ( 1 4 6 1 0 : W a s t e w a t e r C I P I n v e s t m e n t ) 2 Wastewater Collection Infrastructure •City’s sewer system came online in 1898 •216 miles of sewer mains in the collection system •Council adopted a CIP/Infrastructure program in 1990 (CMR:183:0) •36% or 78 miles of sewer mains have been replaced or rehabilitated since the first project in 1992 •138 miles of sewer mains remain to be replaced 2.a Packet Pg. 12 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t A : P r e s e n t a t i o n ( 1 4 6 1 0 : W a s t e w a t e r C I P I n v e s t m e n t ) 3 Remaining sewer mains to be replaced or rehabilitated 138 miles of original pipe remaining: •Installed between 1950s and 1970s •Mainly VCP (Vitrified Clay Pipe) –life expectancy of ~100 years in Palo Alto •It will take 138 years to replace them all at current rate of 1 mile per year •1970 pipes would be 190 years old in 138 years •Current rate of replacement is not prudent to sustain 3 ~CITY OF ~PALO ALTO 2.a Packet Pg. 13 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t A : P r e s e n t a t i o n ( 1 4 6 1 0 : W a s t e w a t e r C I P I n v e s t m e n t ) 4 Replacement rates over time: •Past: ~ 2.5 miles/year (or 2.5 miles per SSR) (annual project 1990-2020) •Current: ~ 1 mile/year (or 2 miles per SSR) (biennial project since 2021) •Proposed: ~ 2.5 mile/year (or 5 miles per SSR) (biennial project starting 2024 or 2026) •To meet the 100-year replacement cycle, need to replace remaining original pipes within 55 years or 2.5 miles per year replacement rate (5 mi every other year) •At the above rate, last pipe will be 107 years old assuming we go to 2.5 miles / year replacement rate immediately. Pipe Replacement Rate Needed ~CITY OF ~PALO ALTO 2.a Packet Pg. 14 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t A : P r e s e n t a t i o n ( 1 4 6 1 0 : W a s t e w a t e r C I P I n v e s t m e n t ) 5 •Estimate based on current construction cost to replace existing sewer with high-density polyethylene pipe by open-trench or pipe-bursting method •Considered alternative technologies that line existing pipe •Small diameter pipes not conducive to these alternative technologies because the liner reduces capacity •Alternative technologies do not have the durability of new pipe –shorter life cycle for replacement •Will continue to seek long-term solutions to infrastructure challenges What Did We Consider in Developing Costs? ~CITY OF ~PALO ALTO 2.a Packet Pg. 15 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t A : P r e s e n t a t i o n ( 1 4 6 1 0 : W a s t e w a t e r C I P I n v e s t m e n t ) Rate Comparison to Other Utilities 66 •City of Palo Alto’s residential sewer rates are 28% below our comparison cities and commercial are 8% above. •A 2018 sewer rate survey found Palo Alto has lower monthly single-family residential sewer rates than 25 agencies (22 San Mateo County and three Santa Clara County) •Other treatment plants around the Bay Area performing upgrades which will likely result in higher rates •No good comparator on collection system CIP -varies between cities depending on condition assessment, rates of new development, rehabilitation/replacement method and local factors ~CITY OF ~PALO ALTO 2.a Packet Pg. 16 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t A : P r e s e n t a t i o n ( 1 4 6 1 0 : W a s t e w a t e r C I P I n v e s t m e n t ) 7 How do we fund 2.5 miles / year of investment? Funding challenges: •Need to increase rates for collection CIP. •RWQCP investment already built into existing forecasts (below). •Community still recovering economically from pandemic Forecasted rate increases at current ~1 mile per year main replacement ~CITY OF ~PALO ALTO $35 $30 $25 -VI § $20 ~$15 -(/). $10 $5 $0 3% 3% ~o/o 5% ~ --COL --- - -5% J/0 ~,- 5% 5% _;,,.~ ---- 11% 7% 0% 3% .:>7o ~ I--~ - - -->- 9% _..,....._... 0% --__.i--QO/,. ,;--_ >-f--I--f--- - --/_ >--_ _. ->-- -I-f---f--I-,_ - - - - - - - --- -~ -1-1,-1,-I _ I_ I _ ·~ -~ - -~ I I I I ■ -~ -~ ~ -~ -~ ,--- -~ -~ - -~ I..O r---00 CJ') 0 .--I N ("f') '<j" LI') I..O r---00 CJ') 0 .--I N .--I .--I .--I .--I N N N N N N N N N N ("f') ("f') ("f') 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N Actual Projected • Collection Debt Service □Collection Capital □Collection Operations •Treatment Capital & Debt □Treatment Operations -Revenue 2.a Packet Pg. 17 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t A : P r e s e n t a t i o n ( 1 4 6 1 0 : W a s t e w a t e r C I P I n v e s t m e n t ) 8 How do we fund 2.5 miles / year of investment? 1.Immediate move to 2.5 miles per year (Construction in 2024) Last sewer line replaced will be 107 years old a)Pay-Go Financing: Substantial, short-term rate increases b)Debt Financing: Use debt or state revolving fund (SRF) loan to mitigate rate increases 2.Transition to 2.5 miles per year over four years (Construction in 2026) Last sewer line replaced will be 109 years old 3.Transition to 2.5 miles slowly to keep rate increases low (Construction in 2034) Last sewer line replaced will be 113 years old ~CITY OF ~PALO ALTO 2.a Packet Pg. 18 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t A : P r e s e n t a t i o n ( 1 4 6 1 0 : W a s t e w a t e r C I P I n v e s t m e n t ) 9 Alternative 1a –Immediate Move to 2.5 mi/year Pay-Go Finance 5-mile Project in FY 2024 Last pipe replaced is 107 years old ~CITY OF ~PALO ALTO $40 $35 $30 'v, $25 § 9% 9% 0% := $20 ~ ~$15 $10 $5 $0 I..O r--, 00 0) 0 .-I N .-I .-I .-I .-I N N N 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NNNNNNN Actual CY) s:::t" N N 0 0 N N Fiscal Year LI) I..O N N 0 0 N N r--. 00 N N 0 0 N N Projected 0) 0 N M 0 0 N N 3% 0 .-I N CY) CY) 0 0 N N •Collection Debt Service □Collection Capital □Collection Operations •Treatment Capital & Debt □Treatment Operations -Revenue 2.a Packet Pg. 19 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t A : P r e s e n t a t i o n ( 1 4 6 1 0 : W a s t e w a t e r C I P I n v e s t m e n t ) 10 Alternative 1b –Immediate Move to 2.5 mi/year Debt Finance 5-mile Project in FY 2024 Note: 6%rate increase in FY 2024 if SRF loan awarded for 5-mile sewer replacement in FY 2024 •Last pipe replaced is 107 years old •By 2032 rates are 3% higher than for alternatives 1a or 2 due to debt issuance ~CITY OF ~PALO ALTO $40 $35 $30 vi' $25 C 0 := $20 ~ ~$15 $10 $5 $0 I..O r-,. .-t .-t 0 0 N N 00 O"'I .-t .-t 0 0 N N Actual 0 N 0 N .-t N N N 0 0 N N m ~ ~ I..O r-,. 00 O"'I O .-t N N N N N N N N m m m 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N N N N N N N N N N Projected •Collection Debt Service □Collection Capital □Collection Operations •Treatment Capital & Debt □Treatment Operations -Revenue 2.a Packet Pg. 20 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t A : P r e s e n t a t i o n ( 1 4 6 1 0 : W a s t e w a t e r C I P I n v e s t m e n t ) 11 Alternative 2 –Transition to 2.5 mi/year Over Four Years (2026) Last pipe replaced is 109 years old ~CITY OF ~PALO ALTO $40 $35 $30 vi' $25 C 0 := $20 ~ ~$15 $10 $5 $0 3% 3% ~0/ 3% ---~ 3% _,u f- 8% ~----~ 9%:,;..;-I-f--f-- -!17o 9%~~ - -I ~0/ --I -_ ,- .1.lo/o I /0 Q% ;;,/O _,_ ~ - - ---I-f--f- 9% 9% 0% --__ ::::~ ~ ---- - -f--f--f--~-------- -~ - - --,_ --- - -f--f--f--- -~ -1-I -••-I ,_ I f--I _ I _ - -f--f--f- I ■ I I ■ -~ - -f--f--- - -,-f--f--- - - -f--f--f- IJ) r--. 00 0) 0 .--i N ("I") ,::j" LI) IJ) r--. 00 0) 0 .--i N .--i .--i .--i .--i N N N N N N N N N N ("I") ("I") ("I") 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N Actual Projected •Collection Debt Service □Collection Capital □Collection Operations •Treatment Capital & Debt □Treatment Operations -Revenue 2.a Packet Pg. 21 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t A : P r e s e n t a t i o n ( 1 4 6 1 0 : W a s t e w a t e r C I P I n v e s t m e n t ) 12 Alternative 3 –Transition to 2.5 mi/year Slowly to Keep Rate Increases Low (2034) Last pipe replaced is 113 years old ~CITY OF ~PALO ALTO $45 $40 $35 -$30 V) C ,Q $25 ~ $20 -V). $15 $10 $5 $0 £i0/n -5% 5% - 5% --~ ~ r-n/ Ei% 5% -II"" - - -5% ~/0 _:,:__------- -Al , 11% 7% noL ~0/n 3% ->--- - -;;,/o 9% U/0 --------~--.... ---------- ------I-I---->->-1-I -~ --------I= -----■ I •~ I _ I _ -~ -• • • • --- --- - ---- - -- - - - - - - - - ~ r-,. 00 O') 0 .-i N ('Y") 'tj' Lt") ~ r-,. 00 O') 0 .-i N .-i .-i .-i .-i N N N N N N N N N N ('Y") ('Y") ('Y") 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N Actual Projected Fiscal Year •Collection Debt Service □Collection Capital □Collection Operations •Treatment Capital & Debt □Treatment Operations -Revenue 2.a Packet Pg. 22 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t A : P r e s e n t a t i o n ( 1 4 6 1 0 : W a s t e w a t e r C I P I n v e s t m e n t ) 13 PROJECTED RATE CHANGES AND MONTHLY RESIDENTIAL BILL IMPACT ($) Alternative FY 2024 FY 2025 FY 2026 FY 2027 FY 2028 FY 2029 FY 2030 FY 2031 FY 2032 Alternative 1a (Immediate)6.69$ 6.16$ 2.30$ 2.39$ 2.49$ 2.59$ 2.02$ 2.08$ 2.14$ Alternative 1b (Immediate, Debt Finance)3.12$ 3.34$ 3.58$ 3.83$ 4.09$ 4.38$ 4.69$ 2.15$ 2.21$ Alternative 2 (4 Year Transition)4.02$ 4.38$ 4.77$ 4.62$ 1.87$ 1.93$ 1.99$ 2.05$ 2.11$ Alternative 3 (Transition Slowly)2.23$ 2.34$ 2.46$ 2.58$ 2.71$ 2.85$ 2.99$ 3.14$ 3.30$ % Rate Change FY 2024 FY 2025 FY 2026 FY 2027 FY 2028 FY 2029 FY 2030 FY 2031 FY 2032 Alternative 1a (Immediate)15% 12% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% Alternative 1b (Immediate, Debt Finance)7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 3% 3% Alternative 2 (4 Year Transition)9% 9% 9% 8% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% Alternative 3 (Transition Slowly)5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% • . CITY OF PALO ALTO 2.a Packet Pg. 23 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t A : P r e s e n t a t i o n ( 1 4 6 1 0 : W a s t e w a t e r C I P I n v e s t m e n t ) 14 PROJECTED RATE CHANGES AND MONTHLY NON- RESIDENTIAL BILL IMPACT ($) Commercial FY 2024 FY 2025 FY 2026 FY 2027 FY 2028 FY 2029 FY 2030 FY 2031 FY 2032 Alternative 1a (Immediate)17.49$ 16.09$ 6.01$ 6.25$ 6.50$ 6.76$ 5.27$ 5.43$ 5.59$ Alternative 1b (Immediate, Debt Finance)8.16$ 8.73$ 9.35$ 10.00$ 10.70$ 11.45$ 12.25$ 5.62$ 5.79$ Alternative 2 (4 Year Transition)10.50$ 11.44$ 12.47$ 12.08$ 4.89$ 5.04$ 5.19$ 5.35$ 5.51$ Alternative 3 (Transition Slowly)5.83$ 6.12$ 6.43$ 6.75$ 7.09$ 7.44$ 7.81$ 8.20$ 8.62$ Restaurant FY 2024 FY 2025 FY 2026 FY 2027 FY 2028 FY 2029 FY 2030 FY 2031 FY 2032 Alternative 1a (Immediate)104.41$ 96.06$ 35.86$ 37.30$ 38.79$ 40.34$ 31.47$ 32.41$ 33.38$ Alternative 1b (Immediate, Debt Finance)48.73$ 52.14$ 55.79$ 59.69$ 63.87$ 68.34$ 73.12$ 33.53$ 34.54$ Alternative 2 (4 Year Transition)62.65$ 68.29$ 74.43$ 72.12$ 29.21$ 30.08$ 30.99$ 31.92$ 32.87$ Alternative 3 (Transition Slowly)34.80$ 36.54$ 38.37$ 40.29$ 42.30$ 44.42$ 46.64$ 48.97$ 51.42$ % Rate Change FY 2024 FY 2025 FY 2026 FY 2027 FY 2028 FY 2029 FY 2030 FY 2031 FY 2032 Alternative 1a (Immediate)15% 12% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% Alternative 1b (Immediate, Debt Finance)7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 3% 3% Alternative 2 (4 Year Transition)9% 9% 9% 8% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% Alternative 3 (Transition Slowly)5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% • . CITY OF PALO ALTO 2.a Packet Pg. 24 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t A : P r e s e n t a t i o n ( 1 4 6 1 0 : W a s t e w a t e r C I P I n v e s t m e n t ) 15 How do we fund 2.5 miles / year of investment? 1.Immediate move to 2.5 miles per year (Construction in 2024) Last sewer line replaced will be 107 years old a)Pay-Go Financing: 15% and 12% rate increases in FY 2024 and FY 2025 b)Debt Financing: 7% rate increases annually through FY 2030; rates will be 3% higher than Alternative 1a in 2032 2.Transition to 2.5 miles per year over four years (Construction in 2026) Last sewer line replaced will be 109 years old •Keep rate increases to 9% per year in FY 2024 to FY 2027 3 Transition to 2.5 miles slowly to keep rate increases low (Construction in 2034) Last sewer line replaced will be 113 years old •Keep rate increases to 5% per year ~CITY OF ~PALO ALTO 2.a Packet Pg. 25 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t A : P r e s e n t a t i o n ( 1 4 6 1 0 : W a s t e w a t e r C I P I n v e s t m e n t ) 16 Preliminary Rate Projection •Staff recommends Alternative 2: Raise rates over four years and keep largest increase less than 10% •Rates are projected to remain competitive compared to surrounding agencies •Last pipes replaced will be 109 years old, which is reasonable but may require future adjustments •Avoiding bond financing better aligns community decisions with community impacts •Rate increases of less than 10% are more likely to garner political support •Staff will continue to look for funding opportunities to offset costs (e.g., Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act) ~CITY OF ~PALO ALTO 2.a Packet Pg. 26 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t A : P r e s e n t a t i o n ( 1 4 6 1 0 : W a s t e w a t e r C I P I n v e s t m e n t ) 17 Benefits of Proposed Infrastructure Investment •Proactive (rather than reactive) approach: Managing the entire life cycle of our infrastructure is the appropriate time horizon •Reduced frequency of sanitary sewer overflows: As sewer pipe degrades, increased risk for sanitary sewer overflows which can result in fines and other costs •Mitigates impacts of sea level rise:Future rise in groundwater elevations will increase infiltration and result in higher peak flows at the RWQCP ~CITY OF ~PALO ALTO 2.a Packet Pg. 27 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t A : P r e s e n t a t i o n ( 1 4 6 1 0 : W a s t e w a t e r C I P I n v e s t m e n t ) 18 Next Steps Information to be Presented Forum Requested Action Date Wastewater CIP Investment Plan UAC Feedback Oct 2022 Finance Feedback Nov 2022 Preliminary Financial Forecast UAC Feedback Dec 2022 Finance Feedback Jan/Feb 2023 Final Financial Plans and Rates UAC Recommend for Approval Mar 2023 Finance Recommend for Approval Apr 2023 Council Approval Jun 2023 ~CITY OF ~PALO ALTO J 2.a Packet Pg. 28 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t A : P r e s e n t a t i o n ( 1 4 6 1 0 : W a s t e w a t e r C I P I n v e s t m e n t ) 19 Request for UAC Feedback on Recommendation Transition to 2.5 miles per year over four years (Construction in 2026) •Last sewer line replaced will be 109 years old •Rate increase less than 10% •No debt financing ~CITY OF ~PALO ALTO 2.a Packet Pg. 29 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t A : P r e s e n t a t i o n ( 1 4 6 1 0 : W a s t e w a t e r C I P I n v e s t m e n t )