HomeMy WebLinkAboutStaff Report 14273City of Palo Alto (ID # 14273)
Utilities Advisory Commission Staff Report
Meeting Date: 8/3/2022 Report Type: VII. NEW BUSINESS
City of Palo Alto Page 1
Title: Discussion and Presentation on Sea Level Rise
From: Director of Utilities
Lead Department: Utilities
Recommendation
This is a discussion item only and no recommendation is needed.
Discussion
The City of Palo Alto Utilities Advisory Commission requested a presentation regarding the
development status of Palo Alto’s Sea Level Rise Adaptation Plan. At the August 3 UAC meeting
Public Works Watershed Protection staff will present an overview of the recently completed
Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment, and the forthcoming Sea Level Rise Adaptation Plan
goals, framework, and timeline for development.
The City completed a Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment (Assessment) which evaluates
hazards and risks to City and community assets from increments of sea level rise between 12-84
inches. This is representative of what may occur through the year 2100 based on California
Ocean Protection Council Sea Level Rise guidance. The Assessment also discusses the sea level
rise-related impacts from rising shallow groundwater.
The Assessment will inform the subsequent development of a Sea Level Rise Adaptation Plan
(Adaptation Plan) which will address both sea level rise flood susceptibilities and rising shallow
groundwater hazards. The goals of the Plan are to 1) protect and expand habitat, 2) protect City
and community assets. Engineering, governance and education solutions would be
implemented in phases so that the right level of protection is provided at the right time and
with the ability to be adapted as the San Francisco Bay and shallow groundwater continue to
rise.
The general timeline is as follows:
•Late summer 2022:
o A staff presentation about the results of the Vulnerability Assessment and
overview of how the Plan will be developed;
o Public release of the Vulnerability Assessment;
•Fall 2022: Plan development and community meetings commence;
Staff: Julie Weiss
City of Palo Alto Page 2
• Winter 2023 request Council approval of the Plan.
Development of the Sea Level Rise Adaptation Plan will be closely coordinated with other sea
level-rise related projects and planning efforts led by staff and regional partner agencies. The
Adaptation Plan will serve as the Sea Level Rise chapter of the City of Palo Alto Sustainability
and Climate Action Plan.
Attachments:
• Attachment A: Presentation
www.cityofpaloalto.org/sealevelrise 1www.cityofpaloalto.org/sealevelrise 1
Palo Alto Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Plan
Staff: Julie Weiss
ft c1TY OF
g'PALO ALTO
www.cityofpaloalto.org/sealevelrise 2www.cityofpaloalto.org/sealevelrise 2
Vulnerability Assessment examines
asset exposure to 12-84” of sea
level rise with:
•Daily high tides
•100-year storm tides
•Shallow and emergent
groundwater changes
•Report discussion focuses on
36” sea level rise because that
is a turning point if no
additional action is taken
•36” near end of century (2070-
2100) and will continue to
increase after 2100
Sea Level Rise
Adaptation Plan
Development
7
Monit.or
ndModify
.Ad.,pti'lion
M iSUfC<S
As Neseded
.Adaptatl,on Pllan
Devellopment Process
5
ft c1TY OF
g'PALO ALTO
www.cityofpaloalto.org/sealevelrise 3www.cityofpaloalto.org/sealevelrise 3
City and Community Facilities and Residential Parcels
Utilities and Flood Management
Emergency Services
Natural Resources, Trees & Open SpaceTransportation
www.cityofpaloalto.org/sealevelrise 4www.cityofpaloalto.org/sealevelrise 4
Groundwater work peer review by
Dr. Kristina Hill, UC Berkeley
0 .
PROT CTIO
COU CIL
C I TY OF
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A TO
ISSI N
pathways
CillMATE INSTI T UTE Sf El ! ~~~~~i
SA ~ltA . 1500 £S . UAlV I. 51\1 _ UTE & THIE AQUATIC SCI CE (ENTE _
www.cityofpaloalto.org/sealevelrise 5www.cityofpaloalto.org/sealevelrise 5
San Francisquito Creek “Downstream Project”
Construction completed: Fall 2018
Partnership with San Francisquito Creek Joint
Powers Authority Agencies
c7
----
www.cityofpaloalto.org/sealevelrise 6www.cityofpaloalto.org/sealevelrise 6
Palo Alto Flood Basin Tide Gate
Structure Replacement Project
•Construction starts: 2023
•Construction completed: 2027
•Project partners: Valley Water, City of Palo Alto
Shoreline II Levee Improvements
•Fall 2024: Feasibility study completion
•2030: Construction begins
•20: Construction completed
•Project partners: Valley Water, USACE, Coastal Conservancy,
City of Palo Alto
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www.cityofpaloalto.org/sealevelrise 7www.cityofpaloalto.org/sealevelrise 7
Palo Alto Airport
Palo Alto Horizontal Levee Pilot Project
Construction starts: Fall 2023
Construction completed: Fall 2025
Byxbee Park
Flood Basin
San Francisco Bay
Palo Alto Baylands
Regional Water Quality Control Plant
www.cityofpaloalto.org/sealevelrise 8www.cityofpaloalto.org/sealevelrise 8
Other Adaptations Efforts
Elevated power distribution equipment at the RWQCP Sea Level Rise School Curricula
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www.cityofpaloalto.org/sealevelrise 9www.cityofpaloalto.org/sealevelrise 9
Sea Level Rise Adaption Plan Goals
1.Preserve and Expand Habitat
2.Protect City and Community Assets and Private Property
a)Protect -keep Bay water out (e.g., levee and tide gate)
b)Adapt existing infrastructure (e.g., water proofing and raising structures)
c)Prepare for Possible Retreat after 2050 (e.g., consider options for
assets outboard of levee)
Adaptation Strategies
www.cityofpaloalto.org/sealevelrise 10www.cityofpaloalto.org/sealevelrise 10
When we need to
start planning based
on sea level and year.
Adaptation actions
sequenced into
adaptation pathways
NO ACTIO:N l EXISTIING, CO:
1 AddNss in and f\loodiing
Near
Term
Conduct toca.l drainage study and alternativ,es analysis
Coordinate with Caltrans to acldrcess overflows
o· ert offsite runoff by constructing perimeter flood
barriers
stall pop-up flood barriers a.cross driveways and
a. cess points
R-se and regrade th!!' parcel in key low points
F odproof buildings and access points. Elevate storage
eas off ground.
lood proof buildings a.nd elevate equipment
cc I tall stormwa.ter drainage system, treatment, and new
d. charge point
onvert ew discharge point to pumped outfall
2 Protect Assets
INear
Co ordinate w ith drai niage study
Consider raising nearby streets, deploying temporary barriers,
or constructing perimeter floodwall to divert storm runoff
Tenn Remove rubbt.e a.nd debr s along tl-Je shore ine
Raise shoreline edge with a new sea.wall
Coordinate w ith the pmjl!'ct r,epl.a.ol!'mi!'nt
2080 Sea Level Rise Projections
- - - - - - - - - - - - - -Like ly ta 1-in-200 Chance
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LEGEND
Coastal Defense Actions
Planning Actions
ature-Based Actions
Stormwater Actions
■ Threshold
Trigger
,.., Trigger + Lead Tim
e Action Implemented
6 Decision Point
6 Strategic Decision Point
1" Alternative Action
-Action Effective
➔ End of Action Lifespan
+ Action continues
www.cityofpaloalto.org/sealevelrise 11www.cityofpaloalto.org/sealevelrise 11
Palo Alto
Sea Level Rise
Vulnerabihty
Assessment
Prepared for:
City of Palo Alto
June2022
~1 PALO ALTO I -· ~ -OF I
www.cityofpaloalto.org/sealevelrise 12www.cityofpaloalto.org/sealevelrise 12
11
4
.. 1
1.2
.3
3.
3.2
3.J
3.4
3.,5
4,1
4.2
4.-3
4.4
4.5
5 .. 1
INlRODUCTION ................................................................................................................ 1
Praoject OveNiew and Pullf)OSl8 ........ , ........................ , ........................ , ...................... 1
Conceptual Framewort!(; .............................................................................................. t
Organizalion of lhe Vulnerab11ity Assessment .......................................................... 2
HIS1onca1 Se:a Level Rise· relilds ............................................................................. 9,
Sea Level Rise Projections .................................................................................... ·10,
St1bsid1tmoo ..................................................................................................................... 12
Sh-allow G:rouoowater Rise-..................................................................................... 13
Liquefaction ............................................................................................................ 14
BUILDING ON EXIS,TING POLICIES AND STUDIES ....... , .............................................. 17
Regula(r,cms and Gufdanoe .. , , ........ , ........... ,,,,, ........ , ............. ,, ....... ,., ............. ,, ........ 17
State -... -.-. -----•.... ----------... -. ------..... -----.•. --.. -. ----.... -... -----•..... ------.....• -•• ----....... -----.. --.• -17
R-egio al .................................................................................................................. 18-
City .............................................................................................................................. 18,
Sea Level Rise Studies. ........................................................................................... 18.
••••. 21
SEA LIEVEL RISE, SHALLOW GROUNDWATER, AND CONTAMINANT MAPP1ING .. 23
Sea Level ·se lmmdatIon Mapp ng ....................................................................... 23
5.1.1 Assu:mplions and Caveats ...................................................................................... 24
5:1.2 Sea Level Rise Map nterpretalion ......................................................................... 25
5 .. 2 Shallow G'roo lldwaler Map.ping .............................................................................. 27
5.2.1 Exisling Conditio:ns .................................................................................................. 28.
5.2.2 F-uhn-e Conditions ................................................................................................... 29,
5.2.3, AssumpUons and Cav.aats ...................................................................................... 29,
5-2.4 Shallow Grnu lldwal.er Map lnlerpmlalion ................................................................. 31
5.-3 Shallow G:roulldwater and Contamination ............................................................... 31
6 ASSET INVENTORY .......................................................................................................... 35
6.1 Data Collection ....................................................................................................... 35
6.2 Asset Inventory Table ............................................................................................. 35
7 ASSESSING VULNERABILITY AND RISK .................................................................... 39
9
7.1 Methodology and Approach ................................................................................... 39
7.1.1 Exposure ................................................................................................................ 40
7.1.2 Sensitivity ............................................................................................................... 40
7.1.3 Adaptive Capacity .................................................................................................. 41
__1_)_U.,_";::" __ .. :::: __ ::-:..,:::-:-::_:-:-: .. -:::: __ ~ ... ,.,,, •• .,.,. .. ~ •.. cc-. ___ --.-................................................................................. 42
8.1 Key Sea Level Rise Vulnerabilities ......................................................................... 43
8.1 .1 Sea Level Rise Vulnerabilities Under No Action Scenario ..................................... 43
8.1.2
8.2
8.2.1
8.2.2
8.2.3
8.2.4
Sea Level Rise Vulnerabilities if a Bayfront Levee is Constructed ......................... 48
Sea Level Rise and Shallow Groundwater Vulnerability Summary Profiles ........... 49
City and Community Facilities and Residential Parcels ......................................... 50
Emergency Response ............................................................................................ 59
Natural Resources and Open Space ...................................................................... 63
Transportation ........................................................................................................ 71
8.2.5 Utilities and Flood Management... .......................................................................... 80
REFERENCES ... ~ •................................................................................................ 100
ATTACHMENTS ............................................................................................................ 106
Shallow Groundwater Assessment and Maps ........................................................... 106
Sea Level Rise Figures.................................. . .......................................................... 159
www.cityofpaloalto.org/sealevelrise 13www.cityofpaloalto.org/sealevelrise 13
Excerpt of City/Community/Residential Property Exposure to
Daily High Tide and Storm Tides
Table 10. City and Community Facilities and Residential Parcels: Sea Level Rise Exposure Summary from Daily High-Tide Inundation or 100-
Year Storm-Tide Flooding
Asset
Lucy Evans
Baylands Nature
Center
Animal Shelter
Municipal Services
Center
Utility Control
Center
Baylands Ranger
Station
Forni.er ITT
Property
Libraries
Boat Launch
Water
Level
HT
ST
HT
ST
HT
ST
HT
ST
HT
ST
HT
ST
HT
ST
HT
+0-inch
SLR
+12-inch
SLR
+24-inch
SLR
CITY FACILITIES
+36-inch
SLR
+ 48-inch
SLR
+66-inch
SLR
+84-inch
SLR
www.cityofpaloalto.org/sealevelrise 14www.cityofpaloalto.org/sealevelrise 14
Excerpt of City/Community/Residential Property Exposure to
Shallow and Emergent Groundwater
Table 11. City and Community Facilit1ies and !Residential Parcels: Sea Lev,el Rise Exposure Summary from Emergent Groundwater Flooding or a
High Shallow Groundwater Table
Asset Water +0-inch +12-inch +24-1inch t"' +36-inch + 48-inch +166-inch +84-inch
Levell SLR SLR SLR I SLR SLR SLR SLR
CITY FACILITIES
Lucy Evans EG -----✓ ✓
Baylands Nature HG ✓ ✓ ✓ Center --
EG -------
Animal Shelter HG ----✓
unicipal EG -------
Services Center HG ----
Utility Control EG -------
Center HG ----✓
Baylands Ranger EG ------✓
Statton HG -✓ ✓ ✓ -
Former ITT EG ---✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Property HG -✓ ----
EG Mitchell Mitchell Mitchell ----Park Park Park Libraries -
HG itchell itchell ,( r ichel11~ -Park Library Park Library .. Park Library ---
Cubberley EG ---
. ........__ _/ --✓ ----==--Community HG ✓ ✓ ✓ Center --
www.cityofpaloalto.org/sealevelrise 15www.cityofpaloalto.org/sealevelrise 15Current conditions (2022)
www.cityofpaloalto.org/sealevelrise 16www.cityofpaloalto.org/sealevelrise 16
Daily high tide with 36 inches sea level rise (c. 2070-2100)
Image shows the approximate area for which planning is needed based on current elevations. The image is
not intended to indicate that the entirety of the low-lying shoreline areas would simultaneously flood nor
does not account for the duration of overtopping or site-specific conditions that could reduce exposure.
www.cityofpaloalto.org/sealevelrise 17www.cityofpaloalto.org/sealevelrise 17
Daily high tide with 36 inches sea level rise (c. 2070-2100)
Image shows the approximate area for which planning is needed based on current elevations. The image is
not intended to indicate that the entirety of the low-lying shoreline areas would simultaneously flood nor does not
account for the duration of overtopping or site-specific conditions that could reduce exposure.
www.cityofpaloalto.org/sealevelrise 18www.cityofpaloalto.org/sealevelrise 18
City/Community Residential
Facilities located inland of US 101,
•2,630 residential parcels
•Two schools (Palo Verde Elementary and Ohlone
•Two senior/disability centers (Palo Alto Housing
Corporation and Alta Torre)
Natural Resources
•Marshes permanently inundated Transition some
tidal marsh areas to a different habitat
•4,700 trees
•90% of golf course
•Five parks: Baylands Athletic Fields, Greer, Seale,
Ramos, Baylands Preserve, and Byxbee Park
Utilities and Flood Control
•Regional Water Quality Control Plant
•Four stormwater pump stations
•Two electrical substations
•Natural gas receiving station
•14 miles of Fiber Optic network
•35 miles drinking water
•37 miles sewer
•2 pump stations (SFC and Matadero)
•2.5 miles of levee
•14 miles of Fiber Optic network
Daily high tide with 36 inches sea level rise (c. 2070-2100)
Image shows the approximate area for which planning is needed based on current elevations. The image is not intended to indicate that the entirety of the low-lying shoreline areas would simultaneously flood nor does not account for the duration of overtopping or site-specific conditions that could reduce exposure.
www.cityofpaloalto.org/sealevelrise 19www.cityofpaloalto.org/sealevelrise 19
City/Community Residential
•4,400 residential parcels
•Two senior/disability centers
•Two schools (Palo Verde and
Ohlone)
•Seven city facilities
Emergency Services and
Transportation
•US 101
•Roads east of Middlefield Road,
•36 miles of multi-use trails.
•Palo Alto Airport
•14 miles of evacuation routes
Natural Resources/Parks/Trees
•Seven City parks
•6,900 trees
Utilities and Flood Control:
•Regional Water Quality Control Plant
•Four stormwater pump stations
•Two electrical substations
•Natural gas receiving station
A 100-year storm tide with 36” of sea level rise (c. 2070-2100)
Image shows the approximate area for which planning is needed based on current elevations. The image is not intended to indicate that the entirety of the low-lying shoreline areas would simultaneously flood nor does not
account for the duration of overtopping or site-specific conditions that could reduce exposure.
2021 Depth to
Groundwater
0~
Menlo, Park
fl/
De1pth to Waiter
-<Oft
,o
0-2 ft
2 ~.4 ft
4 -6 fl
6 •. ,s ft
8 10ft
10-t-fl
IM1tc
1
.,.
S r lln P.,r
Sho Hne Golf
nk!:
Ill
ii
II,, .. j
"'
Lo
Depth to
Groundwater
with 36”
Sea Level Rise
.
Note: the future depth to groundwater surface shown is based on uniformly increasing the existing groundwater surface with
sea level rise. The depth to groundwater represents the highest annual groundwater surface during temporary wet-season
groundwater conditions that may occur over hours or days in the near term, with longer durations occurring as sea level
increases or if future extreme precipitation events increase in intensity and/or frequency. The future condition maps do not
account for groundwater flows to nearby natural streams which may help reduce the groundwater surface in some areas. See
additional caveats discussed in the Palo Alto Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment which will be released in Fall 2022.
Menlo Park
...
N
D-epth to Water
-<Of't
0-2 ·ft
2-4ft
4 -6ft
6 -Sfl
B· 10ft
J.Ot-ft
\
/ I,;
S,hQreline P-,.-
,ho rel lne Golf , .. ~
... ..
0 .c
V,
z
LO
Why look at
Shallow Groundwater?
~CITY OF
~PALO ALTO
Potential Impacts From Rising Groundwater
Increased infiltration into sewer pipelines and below-
ground utilities
Flooding of basements and below-grade structures
Foundation and structural damage
Uplift of residential structures and smaller buildings
Roadway damage (cracking, buckling, sink holes)
Increased emergent (above ground) groundwater
~CITY OF
~PALO ALTO
www.cityofpaloalto.org/sealevelrise 24
High shallow groundwater within six feet of the surface could expose
underground Utilities such as:
•17 miles of fiber optic cable
•64 miles of water pipelines
•Access to more than 300 manholes and
1,000 access vaults
•2 miles of sanitary sewer pipeline
•2 electrical substations
•3 miles recycled water pipeline
•SCADA
•Natural gas receiving station
•RWQCP
Additional hazards to City and Community assets could include:
•7 parks
•Urban forest
•Shallow groundwater within six feet of
the surface in some residential
communities and City facilities
•Roads and evacuation routes
•Contaminant mobilization if
contaminated groundwater sites are not
completely remediated
•Increased liquefaction susceptibility near
the Bay
Anticipated Shallow Groundwater Conditions With 36” Sea Level Rise (c. 2070-2100)
Note: the future depth to groundwater surface shown is based on uniformly increasing the existing groundwater surface with sea level rise. The depth to groundwater represents the highest
annual groundwater surface during temporary wet-season groundwater conditions that may occur over hours or days in the near term, with longer durations occurring as sea level increases
or if future extreme precipitation events increase in intensity and/or frequency. The future condition maps do not account for groundwater flows to nearby natural streams which may help
reduce the groundwater surface in some areas. See additional caveats discussed in the Palo Alto Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment which will be released in Fall 2022.
www.cityofpaloalto.org/sealevelrise 25
Emergent groundwater could occur during wet
weather conditions:
•Along two miles of water and sanitary
sewer pipelines
•RWQCP
•Airport
•One mile of evacuation routes
•770 residential parcels
•Byxbee Park
•360 City-maintained trees
•40% of the Baylands Golf Course
•One acre of green stormwater infrastructure.
Anticipated Emergent Groundwater Conditions With 36” Sea Level Rise (c. 2070-2100)
Note: the future depth to groundwater surface shown is based on uniformly increasing the existing groundwater surface with sea level rise. The depth to groundwater represents the highest
annual groundwater surface during temporary wet-season groundwater conditions that may occur over hours or days in the near term, with longer durations occurring as sea level
increases or if future extreme precipitation events increase in intensity and/or frequency. The future condition maps do not account for groundwater flows to nearby natural streams which
may help reduce the groundwater surface in some areas. See additional caveats discussed in the Palo Alto Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment which will be released in Fall 2022.
www.cityofpaloalto.org/sealevelrise 26www.cityofpaloalto.org/sealevelrise 26
1) Protect City and habitat (keep water out from above and below)
2) Adapt City and habitat (increase resilience to water)
3) Consider retreat needs after 2050
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1) Protect City and habitat (keep water out from above and below)
2) Adapt City and habitat (increase resilience to water)
3) Consider retreat needs after 2050
•Continue with levee and tide gate improvement plans
•Increase groundwater monitoring and expand groundwater waterproofing
•Continue habitat restoration in Bay, creeks and upland areas to absorb and slow water
•Develop a SLR Plan in 2022 for redundant protection and to address additional specific
asset concerns
www.cityofpaloalto.org/sealevelrise 28www.cityofpaloalto.org/sealevelrise 28
1) Protect City from SLR inundation and changing groundwater conditions:
2) Adapt natural and built assets to increase resilience:
3) Consider retreat needs after 2050:
•Update design criteria/building codes to assume three feet higher groundwater and SLR
•Assume higher-risk SLR scenarios for critical infrastructure design
•Install backflow prevention and convert stormwater outfalls to pumped outfalls
•Design for adaptability
•Enhance City’s flood and emergency response capabilities
•Incentivize green infrastructure to reduce peak stormwater flows
•Convert portions of Baylands trails to raised boardwalks
www.cityofpaloalto.org/sealevelrise 29www.cityofpaloalto.org/sealevelrise 29
1) Protect City from SLR inundation and changing groundwater conditions:
2) Adapt natural and built assets to increase resilience:
3) Consider retreat needs after 2050:
•Possible relocation of assets outside of levees
•Transition Baylands upland areas to transitional wetland/upland habitat
www.cityofpaloalto.org/sealevelrise 30www.cityofpaloalto.org/sealevelrise 30
Next Steps
Milestone Completed
1.Complete groundwater peer review and
release Sea Level Rise and Groundwater
Vulnerability Assessment
Q2, 2022
2. Public/staff/Commission meetings for SLR
Adaptation Plan Development
Throughout 2022 and 2023
3. Council approval of SLR Adaptation Plan Q4, 2023
4. Implement Plan and develop related tools
and public education
Ongoing after Council
approval
5. Update SLR Adaptation Plan with
SCAP and revised Ocean Protection Council
guidelines.
Every five years, but with
annual workplans.
Sign up for report release and meeting information at cityofpaloalto.org/sealevelrise.
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