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HomeMy WebLinkAboutStaff Report 14200 City of Palo Alto (ID # 14200) Utilities Advisory Commission Staff Report Meeting Date: 4/6/2022 City of Palo Alto Page 1 Title: Discussion of Status Update and Preliminary Financial Business Models for Palo Alto Fiber From: Director of Utilities Lead Department: Utilities This item is for discussion and no action is requested. Staff will present a status update on the Palo Alto Fiber exploration and seeks input from the Utilities Advisory Commission (UAC) on the preliminary financial business models. The presentation will include business planning process, advantages and disadvantages of outsourcing core functions, post-deployment staffing for insource and hybrid (insource /outsource) business models, updated high level cost estimates and funding requirement. Business Case Magellan established the Fiber to the Home (FTTH) business case goals by asking key questions such as: • what are the minimum sustainable take rates for success citywide? • What is the effect of market dynamics? • What is the optimal fiber route and construction method to reduce cost of deployment? • What is the ongoing impact of competition? Magellan provided a high-level analysis of the construction methods and costs for the citywide fiber backbone as follows: • Total fiber backbone project: o 65% underground construction o 35% aerial construction o 44 miles of total fiber construction throughout City o 432-count loose-tube fiber cable for City departments, fiber enterprise and broadband expansion o 144-count loose-tube fiber cable for electric, to support reliability, redundancy, and future grid modernization growth. Construction sequencing will be determined in the detailed engineering design. Underground Construction will utilize Directional Drilling for the vast majority of the project. o 24” to 36” depth unless Palo Alto has a greater depth requirement 2 Packet Pg. 22 City of Palo Alto Page 2 o 12” separation from other utilities unless Palo Alto has a greater separation requirement o Soft and hard surface restoration, erosion control per City standards. The detailed engineering design will codify all City requirements. Aerial Construction will be Strand and lash or the installation of fiber in aerial duct: • Pros: Aerial duct may protect fiber better from squirrels or other environmental damage • Cons: 1) More difficult to cut into for access along fiber routes; 2) May raise future costs of expanding the network due to additional labor required to cut the aerial duct for new access points and it’s more visible on pole lines as it is thicker than strand and lash (One inch compared to two inches). Utility pole surveys and analyses are continuing, and replacement costs need to be solidified to determine additional costs for aerial installations. Major Construction Cost Drivers • Total backbone construction between $22M - $26M depending on the final engineering design. • Recent labor and materials rates from several qualified construction contractors with experience in the Bay Area • Underground directional drill labor – average rates o 2 2” Duct - $78.85/foot o 3 2” Duct - $97.59/foot o 1 4” Duct - $86.35/foot o 2 4” Duct - $131.41/foot • Underground labor accounts for 60%-70% of the total project cost • Total labor accounts for 85% - 90% of the total project cost. In 2021, City Council and UAC approved Staff and Magellan to pursue an engineering design and business plan to build out of the City fiber backbone in a manner designed to support citywide FTTH. In addition, Council and UAC recommended establishing the City-operated Internet Service Provider (ISP) instead of a Partner ISP due to loss of local control of service quality and pricing and viability of partnership model. The Business Case evaluates two City-operated ISP models. The City can provide ISP with either (1) 100% in-house staffing or (2) hybrid of insource (in-house) and outsourced staffing. Some broadband functions are core competencies and can be easily managed by the City, while other functions are new and can be outsourced where the City doesn’t have the expertise in-house. Subsequently, outsourced functions have the potential to slowly be brought in-house through 2 Packet Pg. 23 City of Palo Alto Page 3 hiring and as City staff becomes more comfortable with the day-to-day operations of the fiber network. Magellan has identified specific advantages and disadvantages for each model as follows: • 100% Insource Pros: Total control; quality of service; institutional knowledge Cons: Higher labor costs; higher learning curve • Hybrid of Insource and Outsource Pros: Lower labor costs; flexible start-up and scalability Cons: Lower service levels; contract risks Attachments: • Attachment A: Presentation 2 Packet Pg. 24 Preliminary Financial Review Palo Alto Fiber April 6, 2022 2.a Packet Pg. 25 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t A : P r e s e n t a t i o n ( 1 4 2 0 0 : P a l o A l t o F i b e r P r e l i m i n a r y F i n a n c i a l - 2 AGENDA •Status update •Business planning process •Develop alternatives •Model costs •Weigh pros and cons •Review preliminary financials •Next steps 2.a Packet Pg. 26 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t A : P r e s e n t a t i o n ( 1 4 2 0 0 : P a l o A l t o F i b e r P r e l i m i n a r y F i n a n c i a l - 3 STATUS UPDATE •Engineering Design –60% Complete •Business Planning –75% Complete •Engagement & Outreach –50% Complete 2.a Packet Pg. 27 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t A : P r e s e n t a t i o n ( 1 4 2 0 0 : P a l o A l t o F i b e r P r e l i m i n a r y F i n a n c i a l - 4 BUSINESS PLANNING Planning Area Focus (Checkmark means complete) Business Operations Management Customer Service Billing & Finance Sales & Marketing Network Operations Tech Support Engineering Regulatory Review •State Agencies: CPUC •Federal Agencies: FCC, USAC •Compliance & Reporting Requirements Governance Models •Legal Structure •Board Powers •Policies, Procurement, Rate Setting and Management Decision Guidelines Preliminary Pro Forma Financials Capital Plan Staffing Plan Rate Sheets and Packages Income Statement Borrowing Schedules Final Pro Forma Financials •Update Capital Plan Based on Final Engineering Design •Update Take Rates and Income Statement Based on Survey Results •Provide Final Set of Financials with Sensitivity Analysis 2.a Packet Pg. 28 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t A : P r e s e n t a t i o n ( 1 4 2 0 0 : P a l o A l t o F i b e r P r e l i m i n a r y F i n a n c i a l - 5 BUSINESS PLANNING Determine best mix of existing resources, new hires and strategic vendors for Palo Alto Fiber Existing Resources New Hires Strategic Vendors Finance & Accounting Sales & Marketing Tech Support General Management Operations Management Overnight Customer Service Billing Field Services Network Design Customer Service Customer Service Construction Legal Service Quality Control Construction Management & Inspections 2.a Packet Pg. 29 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t A : P r e s e n t a t i o n ( 1 4 2 0 0 : P a l o A l t o F i b e r P r e l i m i n a r y F i n a n c i a l - 6 PROS & CONS OF OUTSOURCING Pros Cons Can the Cons be Mitigated? Achieve lower costs due to private sector overheads and shared staff among multiple customer accounts Risk of lower service levels based on vendor’s ability to scale and management of the accounts. Strong service level agreement with penalties for non- performance and incentives for high performance Flexible startup operations using vendors that have the experience, processes and personnel No institutional knowledge building within the organization, which could lead to a lower overall customer experience. Finding the right cultural fit may create friction. Keep high-touch customer interactions inhouse. Consider outsourcing other functions during the first several years, then bring inhouse. Ramp down vendor contracts as insourcing occurs. 2.a Packet Pg. 30 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t A : P r e s e n t a t i o n ( 1 4 2 0 0 : P a l o A l t o F i b e r P r e l i m i n a r y F i n a n c i a l - 7 INSOURCE ORG CHART Assistant Director Palo Alto Fiber Engineering & Operations Manager Customer Service Supervisors (1) Field Services Manager Sales & Marketing Manager Senior Network Engineers (2) Plant Maintenance Techs (2) Installation & Service Techs (3) NOC Techs (4) Customer Service Reps(3) Res & Biz Account Manager Billing Tech Revenue & Accounting Manager Network Designers (2) 24 Total FTE at Year 5 Share with existing utilities. Allocate 25% of these costs to broadband. Utilize existing CSS, allocate 50% of the costs. Add 3 new CSRs. Shift overnight calls to 3rd party. 2.a Packet Pg. 31 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t A : P r e s e n t a t i o n ( 1 4 2 0 0 : P a l o A l t o F i b e r P r e l i m i n a r y F i n a n c i a l Share with existing utilities. Allocate 25% of these costs to broadband. - 8 OUTSOURCE ORG CHART Assistant Director Palo Alto Fiber Engineering & Operations Manager Customer Service Supervisors (0) Field Services Manager Sales & Marketing Manager Senior Network Engineers (1) Plant Maintenance Techs (1) Installation & Service Techs (2) Customer Service Reps(2) Res & Bus Account Manager Billing Tech Revenue & Accounting Manager Network Designers (1) NOC Techs (2) Outsource to Network OperatorKeep several key positions internal Insource, plant O&M, outsource heavy lift and emergency repair functions 17 Total FTE at Year 5 Utilize existing CSS, allocate 50% of the costs. Add 2 new CSRs. Shift overnight calls to Outsourced Network Operator. 2.a Packet Pg. 32 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t A : P r e s e n t a t i o n ( 1 4 2 0 0 : P a l o A l t o F i b e r P r e l i m i n a r y F i n a n c i a l - 9 COMPARING MODELS Outsourcing key functions lowers the City’s overall cost, due to lower labor overhead and shared resources from vendors 2.a Packet Pg. 33 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t A : P r e s e n t a t i o n ( 1 4 2 0 0 : P a l o A l t o F i b e r P r e l i m i n a r y F i n a n c i a l -10 PRELIMINARY BUILD SCHEDULE 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Year #1 2 3 4 5 6 Miles of Fiber -90 180 270 360 360 Residential Customers Passed 6,501 13,035 19,602 26,201 26,332 26,464 Business Customers Passed 998 2,001 3,009 4,022 4,042 4,062 Residential Customers Connected 0 391 1,959 5,103 7,210 8,468 Business Customers Connected -60 301 783 1,107 1,300 Take Rate –(Residential & Business)0%3%10%19%27%32% Average Res Connected Per Day -2 6 12 8 4 Average Biz Connected Per Day -0 1 3 2 1 Will change based on final take rates and construction plan 2.a Packet Pg. 34 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t A : P r e s e n t a t i o n ( 1 4 2 0 0 : P a l o A l t o F i b e r P r e l i m i n a r y F i n a n c i a l -11 FINANCIAL PLAN Costs Original Estimates 2021 Current Estimates Fiber Backbone $ 22,277,161 $ 25,618,735 Fiber To The Home/Premise $ 85,972,581 $ 98,868,468 Cost Savings if Built Together $ (4,476,825)$ (8,730,823) Working Capital Set Aside $ 12,500,000 $ 12,500,000 Total Costs $ 116,272,917 $ 128,256,380 Funding Original Estimates 2021 Current Estimates Existing Fiber Fund $ 32,500,000 $ 32,500,000 Contribution from Electric to Fiber Backbone $ 10,000,000 $ 10,000,000 Total Available Funding $ 42,500,000 $ 42,500,000 Total New Funding Required $ 73,772,917 $ 85,756,380 Will change based on take rates, final design and rates 2.a Packet Pg. 35 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t A : P r e s e n t a t i o n ( 1 4 2 0 0 : P a l o A l t o F i b e r P r e l i m i n a r y F i n a n c i a l -12 FINANCIAL PLAN •Interim Financial Plan – Updates •Updated design provides more accurate quantities and costs •Inflation due to supply chain issues has raised materials and labor costs •Additional 20% contingency added to original estimates to compensate •Construction contingencies are now at 40% on materials and labor •More inflation experienced on materials than on labor 2.a Packet Pg. 36 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t A : P r e s e n t a t i o n ( 1 4 2 0 0 : P a l o A l t o F i b e r P r e l i m i n a r y F i n a n c i a l -13 FINANCIAL PLAN •Finalizing the Financial Plan •To be developed in advance of Council —UAC joint session in August •Final cost estimates based on completed engineering design •Projections for materials and labor increases in 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 •Projections based on key indicators to determine inflation rates •Adjusted construction contingencies to arrive at final costs •Potential hedging strategies to abate risks of higher costs •Take rates and rate schedules (based on survey) •Pro forma income statement •Borrowing summary with schedules •Sensitivity and business risk analysis 2.a Packet Pg. 37 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t A : P r e s e n t a t i o n ( 1 4 2 0 0 : P a l o A l t o F i b e r P r e l i m i n a r y F i n a n c i a l -14 Next Steps •Finish engineering design •Finalize capital costs •Additional customer engagement •Launch survey •Collect survey results •Estimate take rates •Determine rates •Finalize financial plan •Develop governance and regulatory plan •Joint Council/UAC study session in August 2022 2.a Packet Pg. 38 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t A : P r e s e n t a t i o n ( 1 4 2 0 0 : P a l o A l t o F i b e r P r e l i m i n a r y F i n a n c i a l