HomeMy WebLinkAbout2024-12-16 City Council EmailsCubberley High School Class of 1973
Son of Raymond & Helen Fleming former PAUSD teachers.
Ken Hayes
Principal, AIA
Khayes@thehayesgroup.com
2657 Spring Street. Redwood City, CA 94063
350 Sansome, Suite 750, San Francisco, CA 94104
www.thehayesgroup.com
P 650.365.0600x 115
C 415.203.2597
F 650.365.0670
The information contained in this message may be legally privileged and confidential. It is intended to be read only by the individual or entity to whom it is addressed or by theirdesignee. If the reader of this message is not the intended recipient, you are on notice that any distribution of this message, in any form, is strictly prohibited. If you have received this
message in error, please immediately notify the sender and/or The Hayes Group by telephone at (650) 650-365-0600 and delete or destroy any copy of this message.
--
Marguerite Poyatos
Palo Alto Glass, Inc.
4085 Transport Street
Palo Alto CA 94303
(650) 494-7000
(650) 494-7087 (FAX)
--
Marguerite Poyatos
Palo Alto Glass, Inc.
4085 Transport Street
Palo Alto CA 94303
(650) 494-7000
(650) 494-7087 (FAX)
Dear Mayor and Council Members,
On behalf of City Manager Ed Shikada, please see the attached staff responses to emails received in the City.Council inbox through December 16th.
Thank you,
Danille
Danille Rice
Administrative Assistant
City Manager’s Office|Human Resources|Transportation
(650) 329-2229 | danille.rice@cityofpaloalto.org
www.cityofpaloalto.org
From City Mgr <CityMgr@cityofpaloalto.org>
Subject City Council Bundle - December 16
To "Council, City" <city.council@cityofpaloalto.org>, "Shikada, Ed" <>
Cc Executive Leadership Team <ExecutiveLeadershipTeam@cityofpaloalto.org>, "Clerk, City"
<city.clerk@cityofpaloalto.org>
Date December 16, 2024, 7:58:13 AM PST
From: Marcus Wood <mcwood196@gmail.com>
Sent: Monday, December 2, 2024 4:26 PM
To: Susan McKay <susan@kylixus.com>
Subject: Fwd: Page Mill parking
Marcus (with "help" from my iPhone)
Begin forwarded message:
From: Marcus Wood <Mcwood196@gmail.com>
Date: December 2, 2024 at 10:51:20 AM PST
To: Susan McKay <susan@kylixus.com>
Subject: Page Mill parking
Marcus (with "help" from my iPhone)
As highlighted by the community, not having restrooms in public parks is a public health issue. Therefore, we recommend a goal of
funding two to three restrooms per year, instead of just one restroom every two years. We have learned the outreach process
needs early funding. The City has over 15 parks with restrooms. They added 3 restrooms in 2024. Bravo! Let's continue the success
of adding restrooms in Palo Alto Parks!
Nancy Kawakita
Pardee Park Demonstration Garden volunteer in the Pardee Community Garden
Crescent Park resident
Please see the attached video and pictures of the digging, fence damage, and windshield damage.
Thank you,
<news@fresnobee.com>, newsdesk <newsdesk@ksee.com>, nick yovino <npyovino@gmail.com>, <russ@topperjewelers.com>,
Steve Wayte <steve4liberty@gmail.com>, terry <terry@terrynagel.com>, tsheehan <tsheehan@fresnobee.com>,
<vallesR1969@att.net>
---------- Forwarded message ---------
From: Lo an Har nLoran Harding <loran.harding@stanfordalumni.org>
Date: Sun, Dec 8, 2024 at 4:51 PM
Subject: How SV protects it CEOs.
To: Loran Harding <loran.harding@stanfordalumni.org>
Sunday, Dec. 8, 2024
To all-
Even the chief of Detectives for the NYPD, Joseph Kenny, keeps saying that the assailant went into the "Port Authority Bus
Terminal", without saying which one, and we don't see him come out. Therefore, he must have boarded a bus in there and left
NYC. "We believe, he MAY have, our thought is" BUT a retired NYPD Captain, John Monahan, said in an appearance with Tom
Llamas that there are subway line(s) running under the George Washington Bridge Port Authority Bus Terminal, and th heand that he
o ld hav aken su way r m h r .could have taken a subway from there. The media are reporting as f tas fact that he left NYC a r m h W P Bon a bus from the GWBPABT.
Re the gun used, see on Youtube "TGV2 Garage Gun Talk "What Gun was used in the assassination of the". The Texas Gun
Vault 2. 26:32 He concludes it was a professional hit. He rules out the veternarian gun.
Silicon Valley CEOs' security budgets spotlight deadly risk
L. William Harding
Fresno, Ca.
UCLA ANDERSON FORECAST - Winter 2024 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
For more information, please contact us:
www.uclaforecast.com | forecast@anderson.ucla.edu | (office): (310) 825-1623
Platinum Sponsors
Silver Sponsors
Bronze Sponsors
Bruin Sponsor
Principal Sponsors
Gold Sponsors
Academic Sponsor
Winter 2024 Report
THE UCLA ANDERSON FORECAST
FOR THE NATION AND CALIFORNIA
Forecast: 2024 - 2026
72nd Year
UCLA Anderson Forecast
Director:
Jerry Nickelsburg, Adjunct Professor of Economics, UCLA Anderson School
The UCLA Anderson Forecast Staff:
Edward Leamer, Distinguished Professor EmeritusDavid Shulman, Visiting Scholar
William Yu, Economist
Zhiyun Li, Economist
Sayantani Sayantani, Economist
Thomas Ash, EconomistClement Bohr, Economist
George Lee, Publications and Marketing Manager
Seth Katz, Director of Business Development
Virginia Dela Cruz-Gitau, Senior Administrative Analyst
The UCLA Anderson Forecast provides the following services:
Membership in the California Seminar
Membership in the Los Angeles and Regional Modeling Groups
The UCLA Anderson Forecast for the Nation and California
Quarterly Forecasting Conferences
Special Studies
California Seminar and Regional Modeling Groups members receive full annual forecast subscriptions, invitations to private quar-terly meetings of the Seminar and the right to access the U.S., California and Regional Econometric models.
For information regarding membership in the California Seminar and the Los Angeles and Regional Modeling Groups or to make
reservations for future Forecast Conferences, please call (310) 825-1623.
The UCLA Anderson Forecast Sponsorships:
· Logo/name recognition at each conference
· Prominent placement on event materials, publications and on the official Forecast website
· Priority admissions to conferences
· Promotional tabling opportunities at events
· Ability to interact with an audience that includes business, professional and government decision makers from all over California
and the United States
For information regarding sponsorship of the UCLA Anderson Forecast, please call (310) 825-1623
or visit www.uclaforecast.com
This forecast was prepared based upon assumptions reflecting the Project’s judgements as of the date it bears. Actual results could vary materially from the forecast. Neither the UCLA Anderson Forecast nor The Regents of the University of California shall
be held responsible as a consequence of any such variance. Unless approved by the UCLA Anderson Forecast, the publication or
distribution of this forecast and the preparation, publication or distribution of any excerpts from this forecast are prohibited.
Published quarterly by the UCLA Anderson Forecast, a unit of UCLA Anderson School of Management.
Copyright 2024 by the Regents of the University of California.
The Quarterly Forecast:
“Financial Markets and Post-Election Outlook”
Upcoming Events:
Spring Quarterly Conference March 2025Orange County Regional Economic Outlook April 2025
Summer Quarterly Conference Winter 2025
Fall Quarterly Conference September 2025
San Francisco Regional Economic Outlook October 2025
Winter Quarterly Conference December 2025
In Collaboration with
Winter 2024 Report
THE UCLA ANDERSON FORECAST
FOR THE NATION AND CALIFORNIA
Nation
Cloudy With a Chance of Inflation 13
Clement Bohr
U.S. Tables 23
U.S. Charts 29
Mercury Insurance/UCLA Anderson 63
Forecast Climate Change Analysis
Zhiyun Li
California
California After the Election 37
Jerry Nickelsburg
CA Tables 49
CA Charts 53
Special Reports
Acknowledgements
Regional Modeling Group 65
Members 67
Sponsors 73
Speakers 89
Board of Advisors 90
Special Initiatives 101
Special Forecast Supporters 102
WINTER 2024 REPORT
THE UCLA ANDERSON FORECAST
FOR THE NATION
Cloudy With a Chance of Inflation
UCLA Anderson Forecast, Winter 2024 Nation–13
CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF INFLATION
Cloudy With a Chance of Inflation
Clement Bohr
Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast
Winter 2024
From labor strikes to the presidential election, the uncertain-
ties that hovered over the fourth quarter of 2024 have been
resolved. In turn, there is now great uncertainty regarding
the U.S. economic outlook for 2025 and 2026. The general
nature of the incoming administration’s intended policies
is clear and includes tariffs, deportations, tax cuts, and
deregulation. However, the exact contours of these policies
remain to be seen because of practical, legal, and political
constraints as well as the nondescript and often-shifting
preferences of the president-elect.
In our outlook for the U.S. economy, we have attempted to
minimize the amount of speculation and only implement ver-
sions of policies that have explicitly been discussed. These
policies include 25 percent tariffs on all goods from Mexico
and Canada and raising the tariffs on China by 10 percent-
age points, which will be announced at the beginning of the
next administration and be in full effect by the end of 2025.1 They also include deporting up to a million undocumented
immigrants annually, which is gradually phased in through
2025, taking full effect in 2026. Lastly, they will make the
2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act permanent.
The details of our forecasted policies will most likely differ
from what will occur, as we cannot predict the future. For
instance, it is not unlikely that President-elect Trump will
place more moderate tariffs on Mexico and Canada and
more extreme ones on China, which he has previously sug-
gested. Importantly, our assumed policies strike a balance
between acknowledging the extremity of the stated agenda
of the incoming Republican administration while also being
realistic regarding its feasibility. While the policy details
will end up differing, their impact will likely be similar in
many dimensions.
The assumed policies are moderate in comparison to what
else has been proposed by the incoming administration: 20
percent across-the-board tariffs along with a 60 percent tariff
on China, deportation of more than 11 million immigrants,
and the abolition of federal income taxes.2 The assumed
policies are also feasible. For instance, there were 400
thousand immigrants deported annually at their peaks during
the Bush and Obama administrations, and major deportation
exercises have previously taken place in the 1930s and 50s.3 Tariffs on China can easily be ramped up under Section
301 of the Trade Act of 1974, which is already in use, and
tariffs on Mexico and Canada could be implemented via the
International Economic Emergency Economic Powers Act
of 1977 if necessary.4
While there is great uncertainty surrounding the details of
these policies, they all point in one direction: the impact
they will have on the cost of living. Tariffs will undoubtedly
raise the price level for many goods and services. Depor-
tation policies will create labor shortages in agriculture,
non-durable manufacturing, construction, and leisure and
hospitality services, which will lead to higher prices both
because of product shortages and higher labor costs. Lastly,
the tax cuts may further stimulate an economy that is already
at risk of remaining overheated.
1. Wall Street Journal. "Trump Pledges Tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China." https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/trump-pledges-tariffs-on-mexico-
canada-and-china-3c62b1f7
2. Yale Budget Lab. "Fiscal, Macroeconomic, and Price Estimates of Tariffs Under Both Non-Retaliation and Retaliation." https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/fiscal-macroeconomic-and-price-estimates-tariffs-under-both-non-retaliation-and-retaliation.
FactCheck.org. "Trump's Agenda: Deportation." https://www.factcheck.org/2024/11/trumps-agenda-deportation/.
New York Times. "Donald Trump's Tax Policy." The New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/24/us/politics/donald-trump-tax-policy.html
3. New York Times. "Donald Trump Immigration Plans." https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/27/briefing/donald-trump-immigration-plans.html.
4. Bloomberg. " What Trump’s Next Trade War Could Look Like, a Guide " https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-12-01/trump-trade-war-explaining-tariff-scenarios.
14–Nation UCLA Anderson Forecast, Winter 2024
CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF INFLATION
Figure 1
2024-09-15 2024-10-01 2024-10-15 2024-11-01 2024-11-15
3.6
3.8
4.0
4.2
4.4
7
-
Y
e
a
r
T
r
e
a
s
u
r
y
R
a
t
e
(
%
)
F
i
r
s
t
F
e
d
R
a
t
e
C
u
t
G
D
P
r
e
v
i
s
i
o
n
E
m
p
l
o
y
m
e
n
t
R
e
p
o
r
t
E
l
e
c
t
i
o
n
Source: Federal Reserve Board and UCLA Anderson Forecast
Why did long-term interest rates rise
while short-term rates fell?
Before we turn to our projections for the impact of Trump’s
policies, it is necessary to provide an update on the strength
of the economy that he will be inheriting. It is reflected in
the fact that despite the Federal Reserve having cut short-
term interest rates by 75 basis points since mid-September,
longer-term rates, such as the 10-year Treasury note, have
risen by a similar amount. This was the consequence of a
sequence of events that took place over the past few months,
all indicating that the economy was doing better than pre-
viously thought, leading to more upside risk to economic
growth and inflation (see Figures 1 and 2).
The first event was the Federal Reserve's 50 basis point rate
cut itself, which eased the likelihood of a hard landing for
the economy while also elevating the chances of no landing
at all. On September 26th, the Bureau of Economic Analysis
released their annual revision of their economic accounts,
which showed that real GDP and GDP growth had been even
higher over the last few years. In addition, gross domestic
income – which should be equal to GDP but was previously
coming in much lower – was revised upwards, removing
any concern that our robust GDP figures were a mirage for
a weaker economy.5 To top it off, the employment report on
October 4th showed that payroll employment had increased
by 254 thousand (not far from twice what was expected), and
the unemployment rate had fallen to 4.1 percent.
Over the month of October, the odds of Trump winning the
election grew, adding further upside risk to growth, infla-
tion, and deficits, thereby contributing to the rise in yields
as well. Then on November 6th, the day following the elec-
tion, yields jumped in response to his victory. Moreover, the
market yield on inflation protected treasuries did not feature
a similar jump, indicating an increase in future expected
inflation due to his victory.
5. Bureau of Economic Analysis. "Information Updates: National and Regional Economic Accounts." https://www.bea.gov/information-updates-national-regional-economic-accounts.
18–Nation UCLA Anderson Forecast, Winter 2024
CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF INFLATION
workforce. Such unemployment multipliers have previously
occurred under smaller deportation policies in the United
States.11 These counteracting forces are the reason why we
have only forecasted minor changes in the unemployment
rate. It is worth emphasizing that we would not be surprised
if larger swings were to occur in either direction.
Conclusion
With real GDP growth above two percent, the U.S. economy
continues to outshine its global peers.12 The incoming tariff
and deportation policies will put upward pressure on costs
and downward pressure on consumption, leading to lower
GDP growth, dipping below two percent (SAAR) in the
second half of 2025 (see Figure 6). We expect GDP growth
to partially recover by the end of 2026 as the economy
adjusts to the tariffs and the changing composition and size
of the labor force.
Finally, we have not imposed any strong assumptions re-
garding fiscal policy beyond the renewal of the 2017 Tax
Cuts and Jobs Act. At this time, the fiscal outlook is highly
uncertain. While the tax cuts are costly and more than can be
covered by an aggressive tariff policy, the president-elect has
signaled a determination to reduce the size of government
through his Department of Government Efficiency initia-
tive as well as his nomination of Scott Bessent for treasury
secretary, whose stated agenda is to reduce the fiscal deficit
to 3 percentage points.13 Beyond this, it remains to be seen
on what the Republican’s slim congressional majority will
be able to agree.
11. East, Chloe N., Annie L. Hines, Philip Luck, Hani Mansour, and Andrea Velásquez. "The Labor Market Effects of Immigration Enforcement." Journal of Labor Economics, vol. 41, no. 4, 2023, https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/721152.
12. Financial Times. " Why America’s Economy Is Soaring Ahead of Its Rivals." https://www.ft.com/content/1201f834-6407-4bb5-ac9d-18496ec2948b.
13. Tax Foundation. "Donald Trump Tax Plan Ideas: Details and Analysis." https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/donald-trump-tax-plan-2024/.
Money Inside Out. "Fiscal Policy Under Trump II: The Outlook." https://moneyinsideout.substack.com/p/fiscal-policy-under-trump-ii-the.
Figure 5
2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026
140
145
150
155
160
T
o
t
a
l
N
o
n
f
a
r
m
E
m
p
l
o
y
m
e
n
t
(
M
i
l
l
i
o
n
s
)
Forecast
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and UCLA Anderson Forecast
WINTER 2024 REPORT
THE UCLA ANDERSON FORECAST
FOR THE NATION
Tables
FORECAST TABLES - SUMMARY
UCLA Anderson Forecast, Winter 2024 Nation–23
Table 1: Summary of the UCLA
Anderson Forecast for the Nation 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
GDP (% Change)
Real GDP 1.8 2.5 3.0 2.6 -2.2 6.1 2.5 2.9 2.8 2.0 1.9
Price Indices (% Change)
GDP Price Index 1.0 1.8 2.3 1.7 1.3 4.5 7.1 3.6 2.5 2.6 2.5
Consumer Price Index (CPI)1.3 2.1 2.4 1.8 1.2 4.7 8.0 4.1 2.9 2.6 2.8
CPI Excluding Food and Energy 2.2 1.8 2.1 2.2 1.7 3.6 6.2 4.8 3.4 3.1 2.7
Pers. Cons. Expenditure (PCE) Index 1.0 1.7 2.0 1.4 1.1 4.1 6.6 3.8 2.5 2.5 2.6
PCE Index Excl. Food and Energy 1.6 1.6 1.9 1.6 1.3 3.6 5.4 4.1 2.8 2.6 2.4
Producer Price Index (PPI)-1.0 3.2 3.1 0.8 -1.3 8.9 13.4 1.5 1.1 1.3 2.2
Interest Rates (%)
Fed Funds 0.4 1.0 1.8 2.2 0.4 0.1 1.7 5.1 5.2 4.3 4.1
90-day Treasury Bill 0.3 0.9 2.0 2.1 0.4 0.0 2.1 5.3 5.2 4.3 4.1
10Y Treasury Bond 1.8 2.3 2.9 2.1 0.9 1.4 3.0 4.0 4.2 4.6 4.4
30Y Treasury Bond 2.6 2.9 3.1 2.6 1.6 2.0 3.1 4.1 4.4 4.8 4.5
Corp Bond 3.2 3.6 4.6 3.6 2.3 2.6 6.0 6.9 6.2 6.4 6.1
Federal Fiscal Policy (% Change)
Defense Purchases
Current $0.4 2.2 5.7 6.6 3.2 3.2 1.4 7.4 5.7 1.7 4.4
Constant $-0.1 0.4 2.7 5.0 2.0 -0.9 -5.0 2.3 2.7 1.9 1.4
Other Expenditures
Transfers to Persons 2.8 3.6 4.6 6.1 44.6 8.6 -18.3 2.7 5.8 0.3 5.9
Grants to S&L Govt 4.4 0.7 3.9 4.5 44.3 26.3 -14.6 0.2 0.9 2.7 0.1
As Shares of GDP (%) Unified Budget Basis, Fiscal Year
Receipts 17.6 17.1 16.5 16.2 15.8 17.7 18.9 16.8 16.9 17.0 17.1
Outlays 20.5 20.7 20.3 20.6 28.0 31.1 24.5 23.8 22.9 23.1 22.9
Surplus or Deficit -2.9 -3.5 -3.9 -4.5 -12.3 -13.4 -5.6 -7.0 -6.0 -6.1 -5.8
Details of Real GDP (% Change)
Real GDP 1.8 2.5 3.0 2.6 -2.2 6.1 2.5 2.9 2.8 2.0 1.9
Consumption 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.1 -2.5 8.8 3.0 2.5 2.7 2.4 1.9
Nonres Fixed Investment 1.8 4.6 6.9 3.8 -4.6 6.0 7.0 6.0 3.9 4.6 5.3
Equipment -0.9 3.8 5.9 1.0 -10.1 6.7 4.4 3.5 4.2 6.3 6.5
Intellectual Prop 9.5 6.9 8.9 8.2 4.5 10.2 11.2 5.8 3.8 3.6 4.4
Structures -3.1 2.6 5.8 2.3 -9.2 -2.6 3.6 10.8 3.5 3.4 4.8
Residential Construction 7.1 4.3 -0.7 -0.9 7.7 10.9 -8.6 -8.3 3.8 0.0 2.0
Exports 0.5 4.1 2.9 0.5 -13.1 6.5 7.5 2.8 3.5 4.1 1.5
Imports 1.5 4.7 4.0 1.2 -9.0 14.7 8.6 -1.2 6.0 7.0 2.8
Federal Defense Purchases -0.1 0.4 2.7 5.0 2.0 -0.9 -5.0 2.3 2.7 1.9 1.4
Federal Non-Defense Purchases 1.0 -1.5 2.3 0.7 10.9 6.0 -4.5 1.4 2.0 0.4 1.3
State & Local Purchases 2.6 0.1 0.8 4.3 1.7 -0.4 1.0 3.5 2.4 1.4 1.0
Billions of 2017 Dollars
Real GDP 19,142 19,612 20,194 20,716 20,268 21,495 22,035 22,671 23,296 23,758 24,208
Final Sales 19,108 19,579 20,140 20,643 20,297 21,483 21,916 22,638 23,231 23,666 24,180
Inventory Change 33 33 54 72 -30 12 119 33 65 93 28
FORECAST TABLES - SUMMARY
24–Nation UCLA Anderson Forecast, Winter 2024
Table 2: Summary of the UCLA
Anderson Forecast for the Nation 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Industrial Production and Resource Utilization
Industrial Production (% Ch.)-2.2 1.3 3.2 -0.7 -7.1 4.4 3.4 0.2 -0.3 -0.2 1.7
Capacity Utilization (%)75.6 76.8 79.8 78.6 72.9 77.7 80.7 79.0 77.7 78.0 78.2
Real Bus. Invest. (% of GDP)13.3 13.6 14.1 14.3 13.9 13.9 14.5 14.9 15.1 15.5 16.0
Labor Markets
Total Nonfarm Emp. (mil)151.4 153.3 155.8 157.5 147.8 152.6 158.3 161.0 161.4 162.1 162.6
Nonfarm Payroll Emp. (mil)144.3 146.6 148.9 150.9 142.2 146.3 152.5 156.1 158.6 160.2 160.9
Unemployment Rate (%)4.9 4.4 3.9 3.7 8.1 5.4 3.6 3.6 4.1 4.3 4.2
Avg. Hours of Work per Week 33.6 33.6 33.7 33.6 33.9 34.3 34.0 33.8 33.7 33.8 33.9
Participation Rate (%)62.8 62.9 62.9 63.1 61.8 61.7 62.2 62.6 62.6 62.7 62.7
Avg. Hourly Wage, Prod & Non-sup. Emp.21.54 22.04 22.70 23.51 24.69 25.91 27.57 28.93 30.11 31.17 32.22
Factors Related to Inflation (% Ch.)
Nonfarm Business Sector
Total Compensation (Emp. Cost Index)2.2 2.4 2.8 2.7 2.6 3.3 4.9 4.5 4.0 3.6 3.9
Productivity 0.1 1.2 1.4 1.4 4.4 2.6 -1.2 1.1 2.5 1.5 1.6
Unit Labor Costs 1.0 2.6 2.1 2.2 3.0 3.0 5.7 2.7 3.8 4.8 4.4
Unit Total Costs -0.6 4.3 2.6 2.2 4.0 5.3 5.4 1.8 2.1 2.6 3.0
World Food Price Index 1.3 0.6 0.3 -3.8 7.1 29.9 14.2 -9.2 -8.2 -1.2 1.3
WTI Crude Oil Price ($/barrel)43.2 50.9 64.8 57.0 39.3 68.0 94.6 77.6 76.1 68.2 67.6
Housing
FHFA Home Price Index, All Trans.5.2 5.4 5.5 4.6 5.2 13.7 16.8 5.8 5.2 3.2 3.4
Case-Shiller Home Price Index, Comp-10 4.5 5.3 5.4 2.0 5.0 16.1 13.8 2.4 5.6 1.3 1.9
Med sales price exist SF home, $ SA (thous)233.7 247.5 259.5 272.3 298.9 354.1 390.3 392.8 408.4 424.1 442.0
Income, Consumption, and Saving (% Ch.)
Disposable Income 2.9 4.9 5.7 4.6 7.5 7.7 0.7 9.0 5.7 4.8 5.7
Real Disposable Income 1.9 3.1 3.6 3.1 6.3 3.5 -5.6 5.1 3.1 2.3 3.0
Real Consumption 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.1 -2.5 8.8 3.0 2.5 2.7 2.4 1.9
Savings Rate (%)5.4 5.8 6.4 7.3 15.1 11.1 3.0 4.7 5.0 5.0 5.9
Housing and Automobiles
Housing Starts (mil)1.177 1.205 1.247 1.292 1.394 1.605 1.552 1.421 1.348 1.324 1.344
Home Sales, SF New (mil)0.561 0.615 0.614 0.685 0.831 0.770 0.637 0.666 0.695 0.660 0.610
Home Sales, SF Existing (mil)4.822 4.904 4.736 4.746 5.057 5.425 4.533 3.674 3.621 3.750 3.879
Auto & Light Truck Sales (mil)17.5 17.2 17.3 17.1 14.6 15.1 13.9 15.6 15.8 15.9 15.9
Trade
Current Account Bal. of Payments (% GDP)-2.1 -1.9 -2.1 -2.1 -2.8 -3.7 -3.9 -3.3 -3.7 -3.9 -3.7
Trade Balance (% GDP)-2.6 -2.8 -2.9 -3.0 -3.3 -4.4 -4.7 -4.1 -4.5 -5.1 -5.2
Real Effective Exchange Rate (% Ch.)4.1 -0.4 -1.1 2.9 1.4 -2.2 9.1 0.5 2.2 4.3 1.0
FORECAST TABLES - DETAILED
UCLA Anderson Forecast, Winter 2024 Nation–25
Table 3: Summary of the UCLA
Anderson Forecast for the Nation 2024 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024 Q4 2025 Q1 2025 Q2 2025 Q3 2025 Q4 2026 Q1 2026 Q2 2026 Q3 2026 Q4
Real GDP YOY 2.9 3.0 2.7 2.4 2.6 2.2 1.8 1.4 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.4
Real GDP QOQ Annualized 1.6 3.0 2.8 2.3 2.1 1.5 1.1 1.1 2.1 2.5 2.4 2.6
GDP Price Index 3.0 2.5 1.8 3.1 2.5 2.8 2.5 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.6 2.7
Consumer Price Index (CPI)3.8 2.8 1.2 2.4 2.7 3.3 3.0 3.0 2.4 2.7 2.9 3.0
CPI Excluding Food and Energy 4.2 3.2 2.2 2.9 3.1 3.8 3.3 3.1 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.7
Pers. Cons. Expenditure (PCE) Index 3.4 2.5 1.5 2.2 2.5 3.0 2.7 2.8 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.7
PCE Index Excl. Food and Energy 3.7 2.8 2.2 2.1 2.6 3.3 2.9 2.8 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.3
Producer Price Index (PPI)3.6 0.0 0.2 1.8 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.9 2.9
GDP Price Index 2.4 2.6 2.2 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5
Consumer Price Index (CPI)3.2 3.2 2.6 2.6 2.3 2.4 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.7
CPI Excluding Food and Energy 3.8 3.4 3.2 3.1 2.8 3.0 3.3 3.3 3.1 2.7 2.6 2.5
Pers. Cons. Expenditure (PCE) Index 2.7 2.6 2.3 2.4 2.2 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5
PCE Index Excl. Food and Energy 3.0 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.9 2.7 2.4 2.3 2.2
Producer Price Index (PPI)0.6 2.0 0.5 1.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.4 2.6
Fed Funds 5.4 5.4 5.3 4.6 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1
90-day Treasury Bill 5.5 5.5 5.2 4.6 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.1
10Y Treasury Bond 4.2 4.4 3.9 4.3 4.5 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.2
30Y Treasury Bond 4.3 4.6 4.2 4.5 4.6 4.8 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.2
Corp Bond 6.6 6.7 6.4 6.2 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.1
Defense Purchases
Current $4.1 6.5 14.4 -11.9 3.0 3.1 3.5 4.6 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.7
Constant $-0.3 3.6 13.0 -0.7 0.5 0.2 0.6 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.8
Other Expenditures
Transfers to Persons 14.3 5.4 5.1 -4.4 -2.8 -0.1 3.7 7.9 6.6 6.1 6.3 6.5
Grants to S&L Govt -0.2 3.5 14.4 -6.1 3.7 3.2 3.2 0.8 -0.2 -2.2 -2.0 0.7
Receipts 16.3 16.8 17.1 17.3 17.3 16.7 17.0 17.1 17.1 17.1 17.1 17.0
Outlays 22.2 22.3 23.4 23.5 23.6 23.1 22.8 22.8 22.9 22.9 22.9 22.8
Surplus or Deficit -5.9 -5.5 -6.4 -6.2 -6.3 -6.4 -5.8 -5.8 -5.8 -5.8 -5.8 -5.9
Real GDP 1.6 3.0 2.8 2.3 2.1 1.5 1.1 1.1 2.1 2.5 2.4 2.6
Consumption 1.9 2.8 3.7 2.6 2.5 1.9 1.3 1.1 1.9 2.6 2.6 2.6
Nonres Fixed Investment 4.5 3.9 3.3 2.8 4.7 5.9 5.9 6.1 5.4 4.8 4.2 4.3
Equipment 0.3 9.9 11.1 2.8 4.8 6.5 7.1 7.2 6.9 6.2 5.4 5.5
Intellectual Prop 7.5 0.7 0.6 3.0 4.2 5.2 5.0 5.3 4.3 3.9 3.5 3.4
Structures 6.2 0.2 -4.1 1.3 5.7 6.4 5.8 5.5 4.9 4.1 3.5 3.7
Residential Construction 13.7 -2.8 -5.2 0.7 1.3 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.7 2.7 3.2 3.4
Exports 1.9 1.0 8.9 4.3 3.7 3.5 3.4 2.2 1.0 0.2 0.6 1.2
Imports 6.1 7.6 11.2 7.2 7.0 6.4 5.3 3.9 2.5 0.8 0.9 1.7
Federal Defense Purchases -0.3 3.6 13.0 -0.7 0.5 0.2 0.6 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.8
Federal Non-Defense Purchases 4.7 1.5 4.0 -1.3 0.2 -1.0 1.0 0.8 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.7
State & Local Purchases 2.1 1.8 2.4 2.2 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1
Real GDP (SAAR)23,054 23,224 23,386 23,522 23,642 23,731 23,797 23,862 23,985 24,135 24,278 24,435
Final Sales (SAAR)23,036 23,152 23,326 23,410 23,520 23,622 23,714 23,807 23,936 24,100 24,261 24,423
Inventory Change (SAAR)18 72 60 112 122 109 83 56 49 35 17 12
As Shares of GDP (%) Unified Budget Basis, Fiscal Year
Details of Real GDP (% Change QOQ Annualized)
Billions of 2017 Dollars
GDP (% Change)
Price Indices (% Change QOQ Annualized)
Price Indices (% Change YOY)
Interest Rates (%)
Federal Fiscal Policy (% Change QOQ Annualized)
FORECAST TABLES - DETAILED
26–Nation UCLA Anderson Forecast, Winter 2024
Table 4: Summary of the UCLA
Anderson Forecast for the Nation 2024 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024 Q4 2025 Q1 2025 Q2 2025 Q3 2025 Q4 2026 Q1 2026 Q2 2026 Q3 2026 Q4
Industrial Production (% Ch. QOQ Ann.)-1.8 2.6 -0.8 -0.6 -0.2 -0.5 -0.2 0.3 1.9 3.1 3.5 4.1
Capacity Utilization (%)77.7 78.0 77.6 77.6 78.2 78.2 77.8 77.8 77.9 78.1 78.3 78.6
Real Bus. Invest. (% of GDP)15.1 15.1 15.1 15.1 15.2 15.4 15.6 15.8 15.9 16.0 16.0 16.1
Total Nonfarm Emp. (mil)161.2 161.3 161.5 161.6 161.8 162.0 162.2 162.3 162.4 162.5 162.6 162.8
Nonfarm Payroll Emp. (mil)157.8 158.4 158.8 159.3 159.8 160.1 160.4 160.5 160.7 160.8 161.0 161.2
Unemployment Rate (%)3.8 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.0
Avg. Hours of Work per Week 33.7 33.7 33.7 33.8 33.8 33.8 33.8 33.8 33.8 33.9 33.9 33.9
Participation Rate (%)62.6 62.6 62.7 62.6 62.7 62.7 62.7 62.7 62.7 62.7 62.7 62.6
Avg. Hourly Wage, Prod & Non-sup. Emp.29.7 30.0 30.3 30.5 30.8 31.0 31.3 31.6 31.8 32.1 32.3 32.6
Nonfarm Business Sector
Total Compensation (Emp. Cost Index)4.8 3.7 3.2 3.6 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.7 4.1 4.2 4.1 4.0
Productivity 2.3 2.8 2.2 2.2 1.4 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.7 2.3 2.1 2.2
Unit Labor Costs 8.3 2.8 1.6 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.3 4.2 3.9 3.8 3.3
Unit Total Costs 2.4 2.7 0.6 3.5 1.7 3.5 3.4 3.5 2.5 2.5 3.0 3.2
World Food Price Index -13.8 -3.4 -11.0 -0.3 0.8 0.1 1.1 2.1 1.6 0.8 0.0 2.8
WTI Crude Oil Price ($/barrel)77.3 81.0 75.8 70.3 68.8 68.2 67.9 67.9 67.9 67.6 67.4 67.5
Housing
FHFA Home Price Index, All Trans.6.2 4.6 2.0 2.9 3.4 3.7 2.9 2.9 2.8 3.9 4.5 4.9
Case-Shiller Home Price Index, Comp-10 5.0 6.5 -1.6 0.3 1.7 2.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 2.6 3.5 4.2
Med sales price exist SF home, $ SA (thous)404.5 406.1 408.9 414.0 418.1 422.7 426.0 429.7 433.1 438.4 444.7 451.9
Disposable Income 9.2 5.0 3.1 4.4 5.1 5.4 5.4 5.2 5.8 5.9 5.9 6.2
Real Disposable Income 5.6 2.4 1.6 2.2 2.6 2.3 2.6 2.4 3.5 3.4 3.0 3.4
Real Consumption 1.9 2.8 3.7 2.6 2.5 1.9 1.3 1.1 1.9 2.6 2.6 2.6
Savings Rate (%)5.4 5.2 4.8 4.6 4.7 4.8 5.1 5.3 5.7 5.9 6.0 6.2
Housing Starts (mil)1.407 1.340 1.326 1.320 1.320 1.321 1.325 1.331 1.338 1.342 1.346 1.350
Home Sales, SF New (mil)0.663 0.693 0.724 0.698 0.695 0.678 0.646 0.620 0.606 0.609 0.611 0.613
Home Sales, SF Existing (mil)3.797 3.657 3.513 3.518 3.580 3.808 3.821 3.792 3.805 3.858 3.906 3.946
Auto & Light Truck Sales (mil)15.4 15.9 15.8 16.0 16.1 16.0 15.8 15.7 15.6 15.8 16.1 16.3
Current Account Bal. of Payments (% GDP)-3.4 -3.7 -3.9 -3.9 -3.9 -3.9 -3.8 -3.9 -3.9 -3.8 -3.7 -3.6
Trade Balance (% GDP)-4.2 -4.5 -4.6 -4.7 -4.9 -5.0 -5.1 -5.2 -5.3 -5.2 -5.2 -5.2
Real Eff. Exchange Rate (% Ch. QOQ Ann.)-2.0 8.1 -2.2 6.0 9.1 2.5 1.4 1.2 0.4 1.2 0.5 0.6
Trade
Industrial Production and Resource Utilization
Labor Markets
Factors Related to Inflation (% Ch. QOQ Annualized)
Income, Consumption, and Saving (% Ch. QOQ Annualized)
Housing and Automobiles
WINTER 2024 REPORT
THE UCLA ANDERSON FORECAST
FOR THE NATION
Charts
CHARTS – FORECAST
UCLA Anderson Forecast, Winter 2024 Nation–29
CHARTS – FORECAST
30–Nation UCLA Anderson Forecast, Winter 2024
CHARTS – FORECAST
UCLA Anderson Forecast, Winter 2024 Nation–31
CHARTS – FORECAST
32–Nation UCLA Anderson Forecast, Winter 2024
CHARTS – FORECAST
UCLA Anderson Forecast, Winter 2024 Nation–33
CHARTS – FORECAST
34–Nation UCLA Anderson Forecast, Winter 2024
WINTER 2024 REPORT
THE UCLA ANDERSON FORECAST
FOR CALIFORNIA
California After the Election
UCLA Anderson Forecast, Winter 2024 California–37
CALIFORNIA AFTER THE ELECTION
California After the Election
Jerry Nickelsburg
Director, UCLA Anderson Forecast
Adjunct Professor of Economics, UCLA Anderson School
December 2024
Introduction
The election is over, and economic policy will be different
than that contemplated in our previous California forecast.
Moreover, there are many new unknowns, and therefore,
uncertainty with respect to the current forecast is elevated.
For purposes of this forecast, there are four areas we con-
sider: tariff policy, immigration policy, regulatory policy,
and tax policy. The assumptions embedded in the U.S.
forecast are that tariffs on China are going to be imposed in
January of next year, but that other tariffs (and exemptions
to those tariffs) are in the uncertain part of the forecast and
are not going to directly impact the forecast presented here.
For example, the President-Elect announced 25% tariffs on
imports from Mexico which would have a significant impact
on California. But now, over a month before inauguration
day, there are negotiations between President-Elect Trump
and President Scheinbaum to avoid those tariffs.
Immigration policy will likely have two impacts on Califor-
nia. The first is a withdrawal of millions of undocumented
workers from the U.S. labor force either through the de-
portation process or because they have voluntarily stopped
working in high-risk-of-deportation jobs. The second is H1B
visas to work in the tech industry. For the first, we assume
this will be carried out as repeatedly promised since the
beginning of the election campaign. Whether there will be
a Bracero program as in the Eisenhower years after mass
deportations depleted the agricultural workforce or not
remains to be seen. At this point, there is no discussion on
implementing such a program and we assume for the pur-
poses of this forecast that significant Bracero program(s)
will not happen during the forecast period. Even if it were
to happen, it likely would only benefit agriculture in the
state, as construction, hospitality, health care, daycare, and
other services sectors would have a heavier lift getting a
similar, large-scale program in place. With respect to H1B
visas, the emphasis the new administration is expected to
place on growth in technology suggests that this will benefit
California’s tech industry.
With respect to taxes and regulations, our assumption is that
to the extent that they happen, they will have only a minor
impact and will take time to be felt. In our U.S. forecast, the
2017 tax cut is assumed to take place as are some smaller tax
cuts through the next two years. Each of the above assump-
tions about Trump Administration policies is based on our
guesses and not based on any data other than the pronounce-
ments during the campaign and recent appointments of key
personnel for the incoming Administration. It is important
to keep in mind that political exigencies can radically alter
promised policy. This California report begins with a look
at the current employment and unemployment situation
including a discussion of three key sectors: technology,
housing/construction, and logistics. The report concludes
with a discussion of the economic outlook for the years
2024 through 2026.
Employment Retrospective
California’s unemployment rate rose to 5.4% in October,
1.3 percentage points higher than the U.S. In previous
reports, we have explored this difference and found that
a 0.3 percentage point difference is typical as California
38–California UCLA Anderson Forecast, Winter 2024
CALIFORNIA AFTER THE ELECTION
on average is more entrepreneurial and younger than the
average for the nation. About 0.4 percentage points can be
traced to the decrease in employment in the entertainment
industry. Finally, a small amount is due to the cutback in
employment in big tech, the reduction in agriculture and
food processing due to very wet winters affecting harvests,
and a reduction in couriers post-COVID and post-increases
in minimum wages for some chain restaurants. For the
past three months hiring in California has been relatively
flat absorbing numerically the increases in the labor force.
This is the background upon which deportations of some of
California’s workforce will happen.
There are normally two measures of employment considered
when analyzing labor markets in California; the household
survey metric which counts the number of people employed
and the enterprise survey metric which counts the number of
payroll jobs. The household survey reported that the number
of people employed in October 2024 was 2.1% below the
number employed at the pre-pandemic peak, the same dif-
ferential as last August. The decline in employment over
and above the decline in the labor force led to an increase
in the unemployment rate to 5.4% in October. The labor
force decline can be attributed to retirements, out-of-state
migration, and individuals choosing to spend their time in
non-market activities such as child raising. Breaking down
the decrease in the labor force by county one finds that the
majority of counties with a declining labor force are rural
counties in northern and inland California, counties that have
been losing population for some time or that are heavily
agricultural. However, their losses are small relative to the
decline in the Bay Area labor force.
Over the same period, California’s non-farm payroll jobs
increased, and they now exceed the pre-pandemic level by
417,600 jobs. The difference between the two metrics can
be partly explained by the difference in the definition of
employment in the two surveys. The household survey is
a measure based on the domicile of the worker. If a former
San Francisco office worker is now remote in Phoenix, then
they would not be counted in the labor force and employ-
ment numbers for California in the household survey. This
would represent a decrease in the state’s aggregate labor
force. However, if their job were still at an enterprise in
San Francisco, they would remain in the enterprise survey
as employed in San Francisco. They are working in San
Francisco (virtually) and living in Phoenix (in true life). This,
at least in part, explains the large decline in San Francisco’s
labor force. In addition, part-time gig and 1099 workers
are included in the household survey, but not in the payroll
jobs survey.
Nevertheless, there seems to be a disconnect between the
two surveys. Since the household survey is based on a small
number of interviews with individuals and the enterprise
payroll job survey is based upon a large number of required
regulatory reports, the enterprise survey is likely the most
reliable indicator of labor markets in the state (Chart 1). It
is important to keep in mind that these two metrics, which
measure different aspects of the state of labor markets, are
not interchangeable.
From the enterprise survey, for the first 10 months of the year
health care and social services, retail trade, and transporta-
tion and warehousing were three of the top six sectors gener-
ating jobs (Chart 2). Each of these is liable to be impacted by
a reduction in the workforce due to immigration policy. The
remaining three sectors in the top six are education, state,
and local government, and administrative services. With
declining school enrollment and budget crunches in govern-
ment only administrative services might add significantly
to employment over the coming two years. That means that
durable goods manufacturing and tech will need to pick up
the slack if California is to grow as fast or faster than the U.S.
in 2025 and 2026. Our expectation is for tech and durable
goods manufacturing to be the bright spots as increased labor
costs drive firms to seek out labor-saving technology and as
AI and related technologies develop (Chart 4). Information,
a sector with significant tech and entertainment components,
should turn around as the contraction in employment in
entertainment seems to be over (Chart 3) In addition, a
recovery in production rates at Boeing and an increase in
production rates at Airbus coupled with increased defense
demands and a booming space industry should buoy durable
goods manufacturing.
The pace of employment growth in California is of course,
geographically variable. Over the first 8 months of 2024,
slower than U.S. job growth has been experienced by
Silicon Valley, San Francisco, and the North Bay (Chart 5).
This reflects the slow to negative growth in technologically
sophisticated equipment including computers and peripher-
als. In addition, the San Joaquin Valley, hit by a second year
of unusual winter weather, lost payroll and farm jobs this
year. In spite of anemic overall job growth from August to
October, other regions in California have seen employment
growing at rates approximately that of the U.S. through the
first 10 months of the year.
This employment picture leads to a relatively weak Cali-
fornia forecast for 2025 and a slow trajectory toward the
national unemployment rate thereafter.
UCLA Anderson Forecast, Winter 2024 California–39
CALIFORNIA AFTER THE ELECTION
Source: edd.ca.gov
Chart 1
14,500
15,000
15,500
16,000
16,500
17,000
17,500
18,000
18,500
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Tho
u
s
a
n
d
s
California Non-Farm Payroll Jobs(2017 - 2024, SA)
Source: edd.ca.gov
Chart 2
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Hea
l
t
h
C
a
r
e
&
S
o
c
.
S
v
c
.
Edu
c
a
t
i
o
n
(
p
v
t
+
p
u
b
l
i
c
)
Adm
i
n
i
s
t
r
a
t
i
v
e
S
v
s
Tsp
.
W
h
s
.
&
U
t
i
l
.
Sta
t
e
&
L
o
c
a
l
(
e
x
c
g
E
d
.
)
Ret
a
i
l
T
r
a
d
e
Leis
u
r
e
&
H
o
s
p
i
t
a
l
i
t
y
Fina
n
c
e
Oth
e
r
S
v
c
.
Fed
e
r
a
l
G
o
v
'
t
.
Min
i
n
g
&
L
o
g
g
i
n
g
Pro
f
.
S
c
i
.
&
T
e
c
h
.
Wh
o
l
e
s
a
l
e
T
r
a
d
e
Con
s
t
r
u
c
t
i
o
n
Non
-
D
u
r
a
b
l
e
G
o
o
d
s
Info
r
m
a
t
i
o
n
Dur
a
b
l
e
G
o
o
d
s
Far
m
Tho
u
s
a
n
d
s
CHANGE IN NO. OF JOBS BY SECTORFirst 10 Months of 2024, SA
40–California UCLA Anderson Forecast, Winter 2024
CALIFORNIA AFTER THE ELECTION
Source: edd.ca.gov
Chart 4
200,0
250,0
300,0
350,0
400,0
450,0
500,0
550,0
600,0
650,0
700,0
900,000
1,000,000
1,100,000
1,200,000
1,300,000
1,400,000
1,500,000
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
TECHNOLOGY EMPLOYMENT IN CALIFORNIA
(2010 - 2024)
Professional Scientific andTechnical Services
Computer Tech
Source: edd.ca.gov
Chart 3
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
200000
220000
240000
260000
280000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
FILM, TV, STREAMING PAYROLL
EMPLOYMENT
42–California UCLA Anderson Forecast, Winter 2024
CALIFORNIA AFTER THE ELECTION
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Chart 8
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Monthly California New Residential Permits(3 Mo. Moving Average, No. of Units)
Source: S&P Case Shiller
Chart 7
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
S&P Case Shiller Home Price Indexes
Los Angeles San Diego San Francisco
housing bubble in the state (Chart 9). These job numbers do
not include the sizable undocumented labor force that might
be reduced through new immigration policy. Therefore, we
are forecasting a slow start to new home construction in
2025 as well as a relatively weak 2026.
in Southern California would, however, begin one or more
new multi-family projects in 2025. The constraints are the
labor necessary to build these new homes and the potential
for new tariffs to raise the cost of building materials. The
number of payroll jobs in construction is now at levels simi-
lar to those experienced in 2006, the peak of the speculative
UCLA Anderson Forecast, Winter 2024 California–43
CALIFORNIA AFTER THE ELECTION
Source: edd.ca.gov
Chart 9
500,000
550,000
600,000
650,000
700,000
750,000
800,000
850,000
900,000
950,000
1,000,000
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
Construction Payroll Jobs
Logistics
In previous California reports we documented a slowdown in
goods movements through the primary seaports and airports
of the state. The downturn in imported goods movement at
the seaports reversed as the factors leading to it faded into
the past. Some of the previous sharp downturns were due to
trans-Pac shipping being diverted to East Coast ports as a risk
mitigation strategy on the part of shippers with the then still
unsettled labor issues at West Coast ports, and some were
due to a shift by households from goods purchases back to
services (Chart 10). Currently, longer shipping times coupled
with the drought in Panama slowing passage to the Gulf of
Mexico have resulted in an increase in goods movement
through the California ports. The violent attacks on Red Sea
freighters passing by Yemen contributed in a small way to
a stronger recovery in import volume through California’s
seaports. Finally, while labor issues are now settled for West
Coast Ports, they are far from settled at East Coast and Gulf
Coast Ports. Traffic has begun to divert to the Ports of Los
Angeles and Long Beach. The prospect of increased tariffs
will accelerate shipments to the ports between now and
January 20 and will slow the growth of imports thereafter,
but increased consumption demand from the growing U.S.
economy will prevent a contraction in goods flow through
California’s seaports. The weak exports evident in the data
in Chart 10 are a consequence of two factors; weather-
related reductions in agricultural shipments and weak foreign
economies.
California’s international airports have now returned to
normal times (Chart 11) in the sense that air cargo is ap-
proximately at pre-pandemic levels. However, there is
no clear neutral or positive trend. The expectation is that
increased Trans-Pac flights, particularly between the U.S.
and China, will increase belly cargo at LAX and SFO in the
coming three years. Though a similar weak pattern is seen
in domestic cargo through California’s regional airports
(Chart 12), there are currently no significant factors leading
to other than a continuation of shallow growth in domestic
air cargo. Domestic goods movement by air remains below
pre-pandemic levels in Northern California. In Southern
California, it has now recovered and is above trend.
44–California UCLA Anderson Forecast, Winter 2024
CALIFORNIA AFTER THE ELECTION
Source: Various
Chart 10
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
Tho
u
s
a
n
d
s
San Pedro Bay Seaport Traffic
(000 TEU's, SA, 3 Moving Ave)
Imports By Sea Exports By Sea
Source: LAWA
Chart 11
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
Tho
u
s
a
n
d
s
Outbound Inbound
LAX International Air Cargo
(Jan. 1990 to Sept. 2023, Tons Loaded, 3 Mo. Ave.)
UCLA Anderson Forecast, Winter 2024 California–45
CALIFORNIA AFTER THE ELECTION
The Forecast
The sector-by-sector analysis above results in a forecast
for the California economy to grow at about the same rate
as the U.S. in 2025 and 2026. The unemployment rate for
the 4th quarter of this year is expected to average 5.3%,
and the average for 2025 and 2026 is expected to be 5.5%
and 5.0% respectively. Our forecast for 2025 and 2026 is
for total employment growth rates to be -0.7% and 1.6%.
Non-farm payroll jobs are expected to grow at a 1.5% and
1.3% rate during the same two years. Real personal income
is forecast to grow by 2.3% in 2025 and 2.6% in 2026. In
spite of the higher interest rates, the continued demand for
a limited housing stock coupled with state policies induc-
ing new homebuilding should result in the beginning of a
recovery this year followed by slow but solid growth in new
home production thereafter. Our expectation is for permitted
new units to grow to 143K by the end of 2026. Needless to
say, this level of home building means that the prospect of
the private sector building out of the housing affordability
problem over the next three years is nil.
Source: LAX, SFO, OAK, ONT
Chart 12
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Tho
u
s
a
n
d
s
California Domestic Air Freight Traffic
(3 Mo. Mov. Average, S.A., Tons of cargo)
NoCal SoCal
THE UCLA ANDERSON FORECAST
FOR CALIFORNIA
WINTER 2024 REPORT
Tables
FORECAST TABLES - SUMMARY
UCLA Anderson Forecast, Winter 2024 California–49
Summary of the UCLA Anderson Forecast for California by Calendar Year 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Personal Income and Taxable Sales
Personal Income (Bil. $) 2097.0 2191.1 2295.0 2411.1 2538.0 2769.1 3009.6 3003.8 3166.1 3388.6 3554.7 3754.1 (% Ch.) 7.2 4.5 4.7 5.1 5.3 9.1 8.7 -0.2 5.4 7.0 4.9 5.6 Real Personal Income (Bil. 2017 $) 2208.8 2255.9 2294.9 2324.6 2378.3 2548.2 2660.6 2473.3 2506.8 2600.8 2659.8 2729.9 (% Ch.) 5.7 2.1 1.7 1.3 2.3 7.1 4.4 -7.0 1.4 3.7 2.3 2.6
Taxable Sales (Bil. $) 638.0 653.2 677.0 706.1 731.9 706.2 862.2 951.3 931.4 912.6 928.5 982.0 (% Ch.) 3.7 2.4 3.6 4.3 3.7 -3.5 22.1 10.3 -2.1 -2.0 1.7 5.8 Real Taxable Sales (Bil. 2017 $) 672.0 672.6 677.0 680.8 685.9 649.7 761.5 783.4 737.6 700.5 694.7 714.1 (% Ch.) 2.2 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.7 -5.3 17.2 2.9 -5.8 -5.0 -0.8 2.8
Price Inflation (% Change) Consumer Prices 1.4 2.3 3.0 3.7 2.9 1.8 4.2 7.3 4.0 3.2 2.6 2.9
Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey) Employment (% Ch.) 2.2 1.8 1.6 1.2 0.8 -8.5 3.2 4.4 0.2 -0.3 0.7 1.6 Labor Force (% Ch.) 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.5 -2.3 0.0 1.1 0.7 0.3 1.0 1.1 Unemployment Rate (%) 6.2 5.5 4.8 4.3 4.0 10.2 7.3 4.3 4.7 5.3 5.5 5.0
Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey, % Change) Total Nonfarm 3.0 2.7 2.1 2.1 1.5 -7.2 3.5 5.5 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.3 Natural Resources & Min. -9.7 -15.3 -1.7 2.5 0.5 -11.5 -5.1 2.4 -0.0 1.5 3.6 2.8 Construction 8.6 6.0 4.5 6.2 2.9 -3.4 3.1 3.4 0.2 1.7 4.7 1.1 Manufacturing 1.8 0.5 0.2 0.9 0.2 -4.6 1.2 4.3 -0.3 -1.9 1.4 1.4 Nondurable Goods 1.3 0.9 -0.6 -1.1 -0.4 -6.7 2.0 3.8 -1.2 -1.4 -1.4 -0.9 Durable Goods 2.1 0.3 0.7 2.1 0.6 -3.5 0.7 4.6 0.2 -2.2 2.9 2.6 Tran., Warehousing & Utility. 6.3 6.7 6.4 5.2 5.9 3.8 8.0 6.9 -2.0 0.5 2.6 0.6 Trade 1.7 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -1.4 -7.7 3.4 2.3 -0.1 -0.0 1.4 1.6 Information 5.2 7.8 0.7 2.6 3.3 -4.0 5.2 8.6 -9.4 -5.5 3.4 5.0 Financial Activities 2.5 2.6 1.2 0.6 0.4 -3.1 1.3 1.4 -2.8 -0.7 2.9 1.4 Professional & Bus. Servs. 2.6 1.7 2.1 3.4 2.0 -4.6 4.2 5.2 -2.7 0.4 3.0 2.9 Educational & Health Servs. 3.6 3.6 3.8 2.7 3.1 -2.5 2.9 4.1 5.8 4.4 -2.0 1.2 Leisure & Hospitality 4.1 4.0 2.7 2.0 2.1 -27.2 10.8 17.7 4.1 1.9 3.5 0.6 Other Services 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.4 0.8 -17.1 6.1 11.5 4.1 1.9 -0.8 -1.5 Federal Government 0.8 1.3 0.2 -0.8 0.8 4.7 -3.3 -1.4 1.1 1.0 -3.6 -2.4 State and Local Government 2.2 2.3 1.7 1.3 0.6 -4.9 -0.6 3.0 2.9 2.7 1.2 0.2
Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey, Thousands) Total Nonfarm 16049.1 16479.1 16827.5 17173.3 17432.4 16184.9 16750.5 17670.4 17829.7 18052.4 18315.5 18554.1 Natural Resources & Min. 26.6 22.5 22.1 22.7 22.8 20.2 19.1 19.6 19.6 19.9 20.6 21.2 Construction 732.3 776.0 810.9 861.2 886.2 855.9 882.5 912.5 914.2 929.8 973.9 984.9 Manufacturing 1305.2 1311.9 1314.5 1326.2 1329.4 1267.7 1283.0 1338.4 1334.3 1308.8 1326.8 1345.5 Nondurable Goods 483.1 487.5 484.7 479.3 477.4 445.5 454.6 471.9 466.3 459.9 453.6 449.3 Durable Goods 822.1 824.4 829.8 846.9 852.0 822.2 828.4 866.5 868.0 848.8 873.3 896.3 Tran., Warehousing & Utility 559.8 597.5 635.6 668.5 708.0 734.8 793.5 848.5 831.7 836.3 858.1 863.3 Trade 2340.5 2361.0 2371.5 2368.3 2336.1 2156.1 2229.1 2280.1 2277.9 2276.8 2309.3 2347.0 Information 489.3 527.4 531.1 544.7 562.7 540.4 568.7 617.6 559.5 528.6 546.5 573.9 Financial Activities 803.2 824.0 833.5 838.8 842.1 816.3 827.1 838.6 814.8 808.9 832.5 844.4 Professional & Bus. Servs. 2493.0 2534.9 2587.1 2674.9 2729.0 2603.5 2712.2 2853.1 2776.5 2787.6 2871.2 2955.6 Educational & Health Servs. 2464.4 2552.7 2650.9 2723.1 2807.9 2738.2 2817.9 2932.5 3101.3 3238.9 3173.0 3212.5 Leisure & Hospitality 1828.6 1901.7 1952.5 1991.8 2034.6 1481.6 1641.3 1931.1 2009.6 2048.4 2119.2 2132.0 Other Services 543.8 553.9 564.0 571.9 576.5 477.6 506.6 564.7 587.9 599.2 594.2 585.4 Federal Government 244.4 247.5 248.1 246.2 248.2 259.9 251.4 247.8 250.4 253.0 243.9 238.1 State and Local Government 2217.9 2268.2 2305.9 2335.0 2349.0 2232.7 2218.3 2285.7 2351.9 2416.4 2446.2 2450.3 Construction Activity, Auto Registrations, and Population Residential Building Permits (Thous. Units) 98.2 98.8 112.7 114.1 110.8 100.1 121.5 112.9 109.5 104.0 122.5 138.0
Nonresidential Construction Value (Mil. 2017 $) 26876.4 26809.1 27939.3 31588.2 29863.2 20828.4 14836.8 16531.8 15980.1 16393.2 17085.5 17771.4 Value (Mil. $) 26263.0 26178.8 27945.3 31960.1 31420.9 22240.8 16396.0 21057.7 21596.1 22106.1 23525.7 25215.8 Auto Registrations (Mil.) 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.7 Net Immigration (Thous., Past Year) 25.1 -7.9 -17.5 -43.4 -114.6 -155.9 -313.3 -234.1 -154.6 -90.7 -240.2 109.9 Population (Thous.) 38876.9 39100.4 39300.5 39451.8 39520.6 39521.3 39296.0 39162.6 39116.7 39132.5 38987.5 39184.2 (% Ch.) 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.6 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 -0.4 0.5 Source for residential and nonresidential permit and construction data: Construction Industry Research Board (CIRB), a service provided by the California Homebuilding Foundation (CHF). http://www.cirbreport.org/
FORECAST TABLES - DETAILED
50–California UCLA Anderson Forecast, Winter 2024
Summary of the UCLA Anderson Forecast for California by Quarter 2024Q3 2024Q4 2025Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2026Q1 2026Q2 2026Q3 2026Q4 Personal Income and Taxable Sales
Personal Income
(Bil. $, S.A. Annualized) 3407.9 3442.1 3484.2 3529.3 3578.0 3627.2 3675.8 3727.6 3779.3 3833.6 (% Ch. A. R.) 3.5 4.1 5.0 5.3 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.8 5.7 5.9 Real Personal Income (Bil. 2017 $, S.A. Annualized) 2610.2 2620.5 2636.7 2651.4 2667.5 2683.5 2702.4 2721.4 2738.7 2756.9
(% Ch. A. R.) 3.1 1.6 2.5 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.7 Taxable Sales
(Bil. $, S.A. Annualized) 901.7 903.1 912.4 922.2 932.1 947.2 962.1 974.9 988.5 1002.7
(% Ch. A. R.) -6.9 0.6 4.2 4.4 4.4 6.6 6.5 5.4 5.7 5.8
Real Taxable Sales
(Bil. 2017 $, S.A. Annualized) 690.7 687.5 690.5 692.8 694.9 700.8 707.4 711.7 716.4 721.1
(% Ch. A. R.) -7.2 -1.8 1.7 1.4 1.2 3.4 3.8 2.5 2.6 2.6
Price Inflation (% Change Annualized Rate)
Consumer Prices 0.4 2.5 2.4 3.0 3.1 3.1 2.5 2.8 3.0 3.1
Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey)
Employment (% Ch. A. R.) 0.6 -0.1 0.3 2.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 2.1 2.2 2.6
Labor Force (% Ch. A. R.) 0.7 0.2 0.6 2.1 2.1 0.9 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.2
Unemployment Rate (%, S.A.) 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.1 4.8 4.5 Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey, % Change Annualized Rate) Total Nonfarm 1.4 0.7 2.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.4 1.9 1.4 Natural Resources & Min. -2.0 3.1 7.1 2.6 8.6 1.6 4.6 -1.0 2.4 1.7
Construction -1.0 8.2 9.1 7.0 -1.8 2.6 1.7 -0.4 0.2 1.2 Manufacturing -3.8 0.5 4.2 3.9 1.8 0.7 0.6 1.5 2.0 2.0
Nondurable Goods -4.3 -3.1 1.2 0.6 -1.7 -2.7 -1.8 -0.2 1.1 1.8
Durable Goods -3.5 2.6 5.9 5.8 3.7 2.6 1.9 2.3 2.4 2.1
Tran., Warehousing & Utility 3.3 3.4 0.8 8.3 -3.3 1.8 -2.1 2.8 0.2 3.0
Trade 0.9 -0.4 3.5 0.2 3.6 -0.1 2.4 0.8 2.8 1.6
Information -4.4 6.6 7.1 1.5 5.7 4.1 4.7 5.1 7.4 5.9
Financial Activities 1.9 3.0 4.6 3.7 1.7 0.8 0.1 1.4 2.7 3.0
Professional & Bus. Servs. 0.8 3.5 2.6 4.1 4.0 4.8 2.4 1.9 1.8 1.6
Educational & Health Servs. 4.2 -7.7 -4.4 -2.0 1.1 0.6 1.7 2.2 2.1 0.4
Leisure & Hospitality 0.5 7.5 5.8 1.9 0.1 1.6 -1.0 1.2 1.3 0.5 Other Services -1.1 -2.7 3.7 -5.1 -0.5 -3.1 -1.5 -0.9 0.4 -0.3
Federal Government 0.5 -4.2 -3.5 -4.6 -6.1 -5.6 -0.9 -0.0 0.3 -0.7 State and Local Government 4.4 0.7 3.3 -1.6 -0.2 -0.8 0.1 0.4 2.0 1.6 Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey, Thousands, S.A.) Total Nonfarm 18087.6 18120.0 18228.9 18288.2 18345.6 18399.3 18445.2 18508.6 18598.0 18664.6
Natural Resources & Min. 19.8 19.9 20.3 20.4 20.8 20.9 21.1 21.1 21.2 21.3
Construction 923.2 941.5 962.3 978.7 974.3 980.5 984.6 983.7 984.2 987.0
Manufacturing 1298.4 1300.1 1313.7 1326.5 1332.3 1334.8 1336.9 1341.8 1348.3 1354.9
Nondurable Goods 457.0 453.5 454.9 455.5 453.5 450.4 448.3 448.1 449.3 451.3
Durable Goods 841.3 846.7 858.9 871.0 878.8 884.4 888.7 893.7 899.0 903.6
Tran., Warehousing & Utility 839.2 846.4 848.0 865.1 857.8 861.5 857.1 862.9 863.4 869.9
Trade 2281.0 2278.9 2298.5 2299.4 2320.1 2319.3 2333.2 2338.0 2354.0 2363.0
Information 522.2 530.6 539.8 541.9 549.4 555.0 561.4 568.5 578.7 587.1
Financial Activities 809.3 815.3 824.6 832.2 835.8 837.6 837.8 840.8 846.3 852.6
Professional & Bus.Servs. 2785.3 2809.0 2826.9 2855.7 2883.8 2918.2 2935.6 2949.5 2963.0 2974.5
Educational & Health Servs. 3280.8 3215.5 3179.5 3163.5 3171.8 3176.9 3190.4 3207.7 3224.2 3227.7 Leisure & Hospitality 2042.7 2079.8 2109.4 2119.3 2120.0 2128.3 2122.9 2129.4 2136.3 2139.2
Other Services 600.2 596.1 601.5 593.8 593.0 588.4 586.2 584.9 585.5 585.0 Federal Government 253.8 251.1 248.9 246.0 242.1 238.6 238.1 238.1 238.2 237.8 State and Local Government 2431.7 2435.8 2455.5 2445.8 2444.3 2439.2 2439.7 2442.3 2454.7 2464.6 Construction Activity, Auto Registrations, and Population Residential Building Permits (Thous. Units, S.A. Annualized) 101.1 108.1 115.6 119.8 125.3 129.5 133.0 136.0 140.0 143.0
Nonresidential Construction
Value (Mil. 2017 $, S.A. Annualized) 15839.5 15911.1 16407.0 16224.2 17206.9 18504.0 17356.2 17876.4 17352.7 18500.4
Value (Mil. $, S.A. Annualized) 21350.2 21544.8 22331.1 22237.6 23755.6 25778.6 24390.9 25292.2 24689.9 26490.1
Auto Registrations (Mil., S.A. Annualized) 1.6 1.6 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.8
Net Immigration (Thous., Past 4 Qtrs.) -96.0 -36.5 -232.4 -310.5 -243.7 -174.2 97.2 187.6 134.1 20.9
Population (Thous.) 39120.0 39179.0 38981.6 38903.0 38969.3 39096.1 39168.3 39178.3 39189.4 39201.0
(% Ch. A. R.) 0.0 0.6 -2.0 -0.8 0.7 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.1
Source for residential and nonresidential permit and construction data: Construction Industry Research Board (CIRB), a service provided by the California Homebuilding Foundation (CHF). http://www.cirbreport.org/
WINTER 2024 REPORT
THE UCLA ANDERSON FORECAST
FOR CALIFORNIA
Charts
CHARTS – RECENT EVIDENCE
UCLA Anderson Forecast, Winter 2024 California–53
14,000
15,000
16,000
17,000
18,000
19,000
2015 2020 2025
Payroll Survey Emp.
Household Survey Emp.
California Employment (Thous., S.A.)
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026
California Unemployment Rate
(Percent, S.A.)
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
2015 2020 2025
California Taxable Sales
(Bil. $, S.A. Annualized)
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2015 2020 2025
California New Car Registrations
(Mil., S.A. Annualized)
CHARTS – RECENT EVIDENCE
54–California UCLA Anderson Forecast, Winter 2024
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026
Single-Family Multi-Family
California New Residential Units Authorized By Building Permits
(Thous., S.A. Annualized)
Source for residential and nonresidential permit and construction data:
Construction Industry Research Board (CIRB), a service provided by the
California Homebuilding Foundation (CHF). http://www.cirbreport.org/
12,000
16,000
20,000
24,000
28,000
32,000
36,000
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026
California Nonresidential Construction Authorized By Building Permits,
Value (3-qtr. moving avg.)
(Mil. $, S.A. Annualized)
Source for residential and nonresidential permit and construction data:
Construction Industry Research Board (CIRB), a service provided by the
California Homebuilding Foundation (CHF). http://www.cirbreport.org/
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2015 2020 2025
California Construction Employment
(Thous., S.A.)
1,800
1,900
2,000
2,100
2,200
2,300
2,400
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
16,000
17,000
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026
Goods Producing (Left)
Services (Right)
California Employment by Sector (Thous., S.A.)
CHARTS – RECENT EVIDENCE
UCLA Anderson Forecast, Winter 2024 California–55
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026
California U.S.
Real Personal Income California versus U.S.
(% Ch. Year Ago)
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026
California U.S.
Nonfarm Employment California versus U.S.
(% Ch. Year Ago)
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026
California U.S.
Unemployment Rate California versus U.S.
(Percent, S.A.)
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026
Nonfarm Emp.
Real Personal Income
California Employment and Real Personal Income
(% Ch. Year Ago)
CHARTS – FORECAST
56–California UCLA Anderson Forecast, Winter 2024
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
2015 2020 2025
California Real Taxable Sales
(% Ch. Year Ago)
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026
California U.S.
Consumer Price Index California versus U.S.
(% Ch. Year Ago)
10.8
11.0
11.2
11.4
11.6
11.8
12.0
12.2
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026
Employment Population
California Share of U.S. Employment and Population
(Percent)
13,000
14,000
15,000
16,000
17,000
18,000
19,000
20,000
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026
History & Forecast Trend
California Nonfarm Employment History & Forecast versus Trend
(Thous., S.A.)
CHARTS – FORECAST
UCLA Anderson Forecast, Winter 2024 California–57
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
California Population Growth
(% Ch. A. R.)
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026
Net Migration Natural Increase
California Net Natural Population Increase and Net Migration
(Thous., Over Past 4 Qtrs.)
Source for natural population change: California Department of Finance.
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026
California U.S.
Population of California versus U.S.
(CA. Mil.; U.S. 10 Mil.)
47.2
47.6
48.0
48.4
48.8
49.2
49.6
50.0
50.4
50.8
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026
California U.S.
Gross Labor Force Participation Rate (Labor Force/Total Population)
California versus U.S.
(Percent, S.A.)
CHARTS – FORECAST
58–California UCLA Anderson Forecast, Winter 2024
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2015 2020 2025
California Nonresidential Construction Authorized By Building Permits,
Real Value
(Bil. 2012 $, S.A. Annualized)
Source for residential and nonresidential permit and construction data:
Construction Industry Research Board (CIRB), a service provided by the
California Homebuilding Foundation (CHF). http://www.cirbreport.org/
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2015 2020 2025
U.S. Median Price of New Single-Family Homes
(Thous. $, S.A.)
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026
Single-Family Multi-Family
California New Residential Units Authorized By Building Permits
(Thous., S.A. Annualized)
Source for residential and nonresidential permit and construction data:
Construction Industry Research Board (CIRB), a service provided by the
California Homebuilding Foundation (CHF). http://www.cirbreport.org/
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2015 2020 2025
California Construction Employment
(Thous., S.A.)
CHARTS – FORECAST
UCLA Anderson Forecast, Winter 2024 California–59
2,000
2,200
2,400
2,600
2,800
3,000
3,200
3,400
2015 2020 2025
California Employment in Education and Health Services
(Thous., S.A.)
1,220
1,240
1,260
1,280
1,300
1,320
1,340
1,360
2015 2020 2025
California Employment in Manufacturing
(Thous., S.A.)
400
440
480
520
560
600
640
2015 2020 2025
California Employment in Information
(Thous., S.A.)
1,900
2,000
2,100
2,200
2,300
2,400
2015 2020 2025
California Employment in Trade
(Thous., S.A.)
CHARTS – FORECAST
60–California UCLA Anderson Forecast, Winter 2024
760
780
800
820
840
860
2015 2020 2025
California Employment in Financial Activities
(Thous., S.A.)
2,100
2,150
2,200
2,250
2,300
2,350
2,400
2,450
2,500
2015 2020 2025
California Employment in State and Local Government
(Thous., S.A.)
2,200
2,300
2,400
2,500
2,600
2,700
2,800
2,900
3,000
2015 2020 2025
California Employment in Professional & Business Services
(Thous., S.A.)
230
240
250
260
270
280
2015 2020 2025
California Employment in Federal Government
(Thous., S.A.)
WINTER 2024 REPORT
THE UCLA ANDERSON FORECAST
SPECIAL REPORTS
Mercury Insurance/UCLA Anderson Forecast Climate Change Analysis
UCLA Anderson Forecast, Winter 2024 Nation–63
MERCURY INSURANCE/UCLA ANDERSON FORECAST CLIMATE CHANGE ANALYSIS
Mercury Insurance/UCLA Anderson Forecast
Climate Change Analysis
Zhiyun Li
Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast
Winter 2024
Climate change poses significant challenges to the insurance industry. As climate continues to shift, insurers face increased
financial risks from payouts and claims for incidents related to climate disasters, such as floods, wildfires, hurricanes and
storms. To prepare for long-term financial losses due to climate, it’s pivotal for insurance companies to understand the
potential risks associated with climate and how to better adapt to its impact.
Starting from August, 2024, UCLA Anderson Forecast partners with Mercury Inc.1 for research on the impact of climate on
the insurance industry, policies related to climate and insurance in California, and the role of insurers in helping homeown-
ers to invest more in climate resilience.
In this article, we report some preliminary findings of our observational study that examines the impacts of climate-related
disasters on Mercury’s book over time. To establish the causal relationship between exposure to catastrophic events and
Mercury’s financial losses, we merge data on historical disaster declarations for counties from FEMA, information on home
prices from Zillow, population from the Census and financial data provided by Mercury from 2015 to 2023.
Using the compiled dataset with 5,696 observations, we conducted several panel regressions as shown in Model 1 to 3.
Model 1: Total loss ratio = 1(FEMA) + log(average home price) + log (population) + StateFE + YearFE
Model 2: Total loss ratio = 1(FEMA) + 1(FEMA)* disaster count + log(average home price) + log(population) + StateFE + YearFE
Model 3: Total loss ratio = 1(FEMA) + 1(FEMA)*1(late) + log(average home price) + log(population) + StateFE + YearFE
where total loss ratio indicates the total loss ratio with a county that Mercury operates in a given year.
1(FEMA) represents if there is a disaster declaration (flooding, cold wave, strong wind, wildfires, ice storm) for that county
in that year.
Disaster count represents the number of disasters that happened in that county in that year.
1(late) represents if that disaster happened during the later time period (2019 - 2023) as opposed to the earlier time period
(2015-2018).
64–Nation UCLA Anderson Forecast, Winter 2024
MERCURY INSURANCE/UCLA ANDERSON FORECAST CLIMATE CHANGE ANALYSIS
log(average home price) indicates the logarithm of average home value in the county.
log(population density) indicates the logarithm of population in the county.
StateFE and YearFE are state fixed effects and year fixed effects, respectively. We include them to isolate changes in total
loss ratio due to the effect of disasters instead of differences across counties in terms of characteristics such as capital stock
and environment and differences over time (e.g., economic downturn etc.)
Our results show that
• A disaster declaration in a county is associated with a 15% increase in the total loss ratio for the insurance company
within that county. This indicates that climate has a substantial adverse effect on the insurer's portfolio.
• Insurers are especially financially vulnerable to counties with multiple perils or frequently struck by the same peril.
Our results show an additional disaster declaration in a county links to a 4.1% increase in total loss ratio for the insurer
within that county.
• Mercury's total loss ratio increases by 12% less when the disaster declaration occurs in recent years (after 2019) com-
pared to earlier years (before 2019). This suggests the insurer is adapting to the impact of disasters over time.
REGIONAL MODELING GROUP
UCLA Anderson Forecast, Winter 2024 Regional Modeling Group–65
The Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (DWP), established at the beginning of the century is the largest municipally-owned utility in the nation. It exists under and by virtue of the Charter of the City of Los Angeles enacted in 1925.
With a work force in excess of 9,000, the DWP provides water and electricity to some 3.5 million residents and businesses in a 464-square-mile area.
DWP’s operations are financed solely by the sale of water and electric services. Capital funds are raised through the sale of bonds. No tax support is received.
A five-member Board of Water and Power Commissioners establishes policy for the DWP. The Board members are appointed by the Mayor and confirmed by the City Council for five-year terms.
The Los Angeles Regional Consortium (LARC) consists of 19 community colleges in Los Angeles County. It serves to coordinate, collaborate, organize, and facilitate interaction in the region to ensure workforce training is provided to all in a way that is accessible, efficient, responsive, data-driven and improves outcomes. Champions of students, up-skillers, re-skillers and employers, the work of the Los Angeles Regional Consortium (LARC) is to bridge the gap between employer needs and workforce preparedness. The depth, breadth, and scope of LAC’s industrial complex offer a myriad of middle skill occupations that pay well and provide the upward mobility that is foundational to economic security. Yet many of these jobs remain unfilled. Residents struggle to find work and companies struggle to find qualified, middle-skilled employees. Within this ‘skilled worker supply/demand challenge’ lies the LARC objective — to increase the availability of a well-trained skilled workforce in LA County to close the immense supply and demand gap.
REGIONAL MODELING GROUP
66–Regional Modeling Group UCLA Anderson Forecast, Winter 2024
The Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority (Metro) is unique among the nation’s transportation agencies. It serves as transportation planner and coordinator, designer, builder and operator for one of the country’s largest, most populous counties. More than 9 million people – one-third of California’s residents – live, work, and play within its 1,433-square-mile service area.
Besides operating over 2,000 coaches in the Metro Bus fleet, Metro also designed, built and now operates over 73 miles of Metro Rail service. The Metro Rail system currently consists of 62 stations and several more are in the planning and/or design stage.
In addition to operating its own services Metro funds 16 municipal bus operators and funds a wide array of transportation projects including bikeways and pedestrian facilities, local road and highway improvements, goods movement, and the popular Freeway Patrol and Call Boxes.
Recognizing that no one form of transit can solve urban congestion problems, Metro’s multimodal approach uses a variety of transportation alternatives to meet the needs of the highly diverse population in the region.
Metro’s Mission is to insure the continuous improvement of an efficient and effective transportation system for Los Angeles County. In support of this mission, our team members provide expertise and leadership based on their distinct roles: operating transit system elements for which the agency has delivery responsibility, planning the countywide transportation system in cooperation with other agencies, managing the construction and engineering of transportation system components and delivering timely support services to the Metro organization.
Metro was created in the state legislature by Assembly Bill 152 in May 1992. This bill merged the Los Angeles County Transportation Commission (LACTC) and the Southern California Rapid Transit District (RTD) to become the Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority. The merger became effective on April 1, 1993.
Metro is governed by a 13-member Board of Directors comprised of: the five Los Angeles County Supervisors, the Mayor of Los Angeles, three Los Angeles mayor-appointed members, four city council members representing the other 87 cities in Los Angeles County and one non-voting member is appointed by the Governor of California.
SEMINAR MEMBERS
UCLA Anderson Forecast, Winter 2024 Seminar Members–67
From its Los Angeles base, Allen Matkins has conquered California, opening up offices in San Francisco, San Diego, Century City, and Irvine. With approximately 200 lawyers, the firm is known as a top real estate practice in the Golden State.
Grown in the City of Angels
Allen Matkins has built its empire in the state where residents elect bodybuilders and shrug off earthquakes. Founded in Los Angeles in 1977, Allen Matkins has achieved notable success in corporate and hospitality work, as well as in the securities, employment, bankruptcy, and tax arenas. The firm has earned accolades from west coast publications like the Los Angeles Business Journal and the San Diego Business Journal. Its real strengths lie, however, in its real estate and litigation practices. The firm's litigation department has focuses in real estate, commercial, financial services, construction, environmental, and labor and employment litigation.
The firm has not only worked with local clients-like representing a public-private partnership to modernize the Los Angeles Air Force Base-but has also secured nationally known clients including Wells Fargo Bank, Sares-Regis Group, AT&T, Black & Decker, Met Life, The Home Depot, Blackstone Real Estate Advisors, and Capmark Finance.
Buying and Selling Up the California Coast
Real estate is where the firm shines-Allen Matkins has ranked the No. 1 real estate law firm in California for a decade, according to Chambers & Partners. California Real Estate Journal has also placed Allen Matkins on the top of its real estate firm list, which was based on the number of real estate attorneys in each outfit. The firm's real estate practice handles all aspects of the real estate world, including litigation over construction, land use, landlord tenant, and condemnation issues.
And handling the real estate transactions of the present is not enough for the firm; Allen Matkins seeks to predict the future. The firm has developed a partnership with UCLA Anderson Forecast, an organization of economists who attempt to posit unbiased forecasts for California's economy and the nation's. Allen Matkins and the Anderson Forecast put out commercial real estate forecasts, covering rental and vacancy rates.
Accomplish more with new streams of revenue. Avenu Insights & Analytics works closely with government clients to help them realize their full revenue potential — without raising taxes.
Supported by an experienced team of professionals who have driven results for thousands of government clients, Avenu’s proven solutions give officials the insight and support they need to protect and grow revenue for the communities they serve. We work with you to understand and project your jurisdiction’s tax and economic future, identify and resolve noncompliance issues, and secure the associated revenue.
For the past 40 years, Avenu has helped over 3,000 jurisdictions benefit from our Revenue Enhancement and Tax Administration solutions.
• Compliance Auditing ensures all expected revenue is accounted for and paid, in a wide variety of tax types, including Sales & Use, Alcohol, Lodging, Business License, Franchise Fee, and many more.
• Data & Analytics uses advanced software to assist with Economic Development that aggregates and organizes jurisdictional data into intuitive, graphical views to identify the trends and causes of revenue shifts over any period.
• Discovery & Recovery pinpoints and identifies non-filers and revenue shortWinters in license, permit and other taxes, and recovers payment with a budget-neutral approach.
• Misallocation identifies tax revenues that have not been properly reported and distributed to the appropriate jurisdiction.
• Tax & License Administration provides support across every local tax category and streamlines day-to-day operations, including data entry, billing & collections, funds distribution, compliance, taxpayer education & support services, and application / claims processing.
Learn more by visiting www.AvenuInsights.com.
SEMINAR MEMBERS
UCLA Anderson Forecast, Winter 2024 Seminar Members–69
Mission Statement
The mission of the Inland Empire Center for Economics and Public Policy (IEC) at Claremont McKenna College is to provide Inland Empire leaders with expert analysis of the region’s unique political and economic landscape.
Background
The IEC was founded in 2010 as a collaborative effort by the Rose Institute of State and Local Government and the Lowe Institute for Political Economy, both based at Claremont McKenna College. While the Inland Empire is one of California’s fast growing areas, there was little political and economic analysis specific to the region. Recognizing this void and the increasing importance of the area to California’s economy, the two research institutes saw the need for an organization that could deliver analysis on current issues impacting the Inland Empire.
The Rose Institute and the Lowe Institute were uniquely positioned to create the IEC because their staffs both specialized in political and economic analysis and were familiar with the Inland Empire. The IEC brings together experts from both founding institutions. Marc Weidenmier, Ph.D., director of the Lowe Institute, is a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research and a member of the Editorial Board of the Journal of Economic History. Andrew Busch, Ph.D., director of the Rose Institute, is an expert in American government and politics. Manfred Keil, Ph.D., an expert in comparative economics, has extensive knowledge on economic conditions in the Inland Empire. Kenneth P. Miller, J.D., Ph.D., is an expert in California politics and policy who studies political developments in the Inland Empire.
The primary ways that the IEC presents its analysis is through publications and conferences. The Inland Empire Outlook, which provides analysis on the Inland Empire’s political and economic developments, is the IEC’s predominant recurring publication. Its inaugural issue was published in Winter 2010. Besides publications, the IEC also hosts conferences throughout the Inland Empire. The conferences bring together panels of experts and business and political leaders in the Inland Empire to address current topics affecting the region. The annual economic forecast conference held at the Citizens Business Bank Arena in Ontario is in cooperation with the UCLA Anderson Forecast.
The State of California’s Department of Finance is responsible for submitting to the State’s fiscal year budget to the Governor in January of each year. The Department is part of the State’s Executive Branch and part of the Governor’s Administration. The Director of Finance is appointed by the Governor and is his chief fiscal advisor. The Director sits as a member of the Governor’s cabinet and senior staff. Principal functions include:
Establish appropriate fiscal policies to carry out the Administration’s Programs.
Prepare, enact and administer the State’s Annual Financial Plan.
Analyze legislation which has a fiscal impact.
Develop and maintain the California State Accounting and Reporting System (CALSTARS).
Monitor/audit expenditures by State departments to ensure compliance with approved standards and policies.
Develop economic forecasts and revenue estimates.
Develop population and enrollment estimates and projections.
Review expenditures on data processing activities of departments.
In addition, the Department of Finance interacts with the Legislature through various reporting requirements, by presenting and defending the Governor’s Budget and in the legislature.
The Department interacts with other State departments on a daily basis on terms of administering the budget, reviewing fiscal proposals, establishing accounting systems, auditing department expenditures and communicating the Governor’s fiscal policy to departments.
SEMINAR MEMBERS
UCLA Anderson Forecast, Winter 2024 Seminar Members–71
State Controller Betty T. Yee was elected in November 2014, following two terms of service on the Board of Equalization. As Controller, she continues to serve the Board as its fifth voting member.
The State Controller is the Chief Fiscal Officer of California, the sixth largest economy in the world. She helps administer two of the largest public pension funds in the nation and serves on 78 state boards and commissions. These are charged with duties ranging from protecting our coastline to helping build hospitals. The Controller is the state’s independent fiscal watchdog, providing sound fiscal control over more than $100 billion in receipts and disbursements of public funds a year, offering fiscal guidance to local governments, and uncovering fraud and abuse of taxpayer dollars.
The State Controller's Functions
• Account for and control disbursement of all state funds.
• Determine legality and accuracy of every claim against the State.
• Issue warrants in payment of the State’s bills including lottery prizes.
• Administer the Uniform State Payroll System.
• Audit and process all personnel and payroll transactions for state civil service employees, exempt employees and California State University employees.
• Responsible for auditing various state and local government programs.
• Inform the public of the State’s financial condition.
• Administer the Unclaimed Property Law.
• Inform the public of financial transactions of city, county and district governments.
The energy industry is changing rapidly and dramatically. As global competition transforms the way companies do business, energy issues are no longer simply local, or even national. At the same time, its clear that the importance of providing reliable local service has never been more important.
Our heritage at Southern California Edison is based on reliability. For more than 100 years we have provided high-quality, reliable electric service to more than 4.2 million business and residential customers over a 50,000 square mile service area in coastal, central, and southern California.
Of course, recent changes in the California’s electric industry have affected us as well. In 1997, as part of the restructuring of the electric industry in our state, SCE sold its 12 fossil fuel generating stations and overhauled nearly every aspect of its business to prepare for the changing environment. While we still own and operate hydro and nuclear power facilities that serve our area, our main role is that of power transmission and distribution. The power needed for our customers is largely purchased from the California Power Exchange and provided by SCE to our customers without a price markup.
At SCE we want you to know that even in times of change, we retain our proven commitment to service, reliability, innovation, and the community.
MEMBERS
72 - Members UCLA Anderson Forecast, Winter 2024
Seminar
Avenu Insights and AnalyticsCalifornia Air Resources BoardCalifornia Department of FinanceCalifornia Energy CommissionCalifornia State Controller's OfficeCalifornia State University Dominguez HillsCathay BankClaremont McKenna Lowe InstituteCounty of Los Angeles Chief Executive OfficeLos Angeles Department of Water and Power Los Angeles Metropolitan Transportation AuthorityLos Angeles Regional Consortium Orange County Transportation AuthoritySouthern California Edison
Annual +
California Legislative Analyst's OfficeCitizens Business BankCity of Los AngelesCity of Santa MonicaHanmi BankLos Angeles Police Federal Credit UnionMedPOINT Management, Inc.The Metropolitan Water District of Southern CaliforniaRPAState Bank of India CaliforniaState Compensation Insurance FundState of CA Employment Development DepartmentWCIRB
Annual
ActNow StrategiesAustrian Trade CommissionBank of HopeCal RecycleCalifornia Association Of RealtorsCalifornia Department of TransportationCalifornia Public Utilities CommissionCalifornia Steel Industries, IncCemexChartwell Capital Solutions
Chroma Systems SolutionsCity National Bank City of CarlsbadCity of CupertinoCity of InglewoodCity of La QuintaCity of San JoseCity of Santa ClaraCity of Santa RosaCity of TorranceCoastline EquityConsulate General of JapanCounty of San DiegoCovered CaliforniaDesert Sands Unified School DistrictDesmond, Marcello & AmsterEast West BankFDICHdL CompaniesHeritage Bank of CommerceHR and A Advisors, Inc.Interfaith Federal Credit UnionIrvine CompanyJacobsKaiser PermanenteKPMG LLPLehigh Southwest Cement CompanyLiberty Bank, N.A.Los Angeles Public Library - Business Economics DeptNinth Circuit LibraryNorthern California Power AgencyOrange County Executive Office - BudgetPueblo Mechanical & Controls, LLCSchool Services of California Inc.SMBC ManuBank SMUDSoCalGasStanford UniversityState of Hawaii - Department of TaxationThe Aerospace CorporationThe Olson CompanyUniversity of California San DiegoUniversity of RichmondWilliam RayhillXL ConstructionYork University Libraries
SPEAKERS
90–Speakers UCLA Anderson Forecast, Winter 2024
Brandi Britton
Executive Director,
Contract Finance and Accounting,
Robert Half
Brandi Britton serves as executive director with responsibility for overseeing Robert Half’s contract finance and accounting practice group. In this role, she leads global operational strategy for the placement of highly skilled finance and accounting professionals on a contract basis, for short- and long-term assignments.
Since joining Robert Half, Brandi has held several leadership positions with the company, most recently serving as district president for professional talent solutions in Southern California. During her tenure, Brandi has achieved companywide recognition for outstanding leadership and production.
Brandi joined Robert Half International in 1999 and has served as an invaluable source and staffing and consulting expert for national and regional media outlets including CBS, Wall Street Journal, Los Angeles Times, Los Angeles Business Journal, among others. Brandi graduated from California Polytechnic State University with a Bachelor of Science degree in Social Sciences.
Brandi actively leads her teams to give back to the communities in which they live and work through a variety of initiatives, including an annual suit drive for Dress for Success and similar non-profits, during which time the company collects donations for low-income women looking to enter – or re-enter – the employment market. Brandi also oversees an annual holiday toy drive benefitting local non-profits, for which she collects gifts for local at-risk youth.
Elizabeth Brink
Co-CEO & Managing Principal,
Southwest Region,
Gensler
Elizabeth Brink is Co-CEO of Gensler, the world’s most influential architecture and design firm. Together with Co-CEO Jordan Goldstein, she oversees both the long-term vision and day-to-day operations of the global practice known for its bold creativity, incisive research, and meaningful positive impact. Elizabeth has been with the firm for more than 20 years, serving as the Co-Managing Principal of the Southwest Region since 2021 and a member of the Board of Directors.
With over two decades of experience as a design strategist, Elizabeth is a sought-after expert on issues related to workplace transformation and experience design, providing an integrated and human-centered perspective on space and placemaking. She has partnered with some of the world’s most forward-thinking companies to create and implement high-performance spaces that leverage both changing technologies and shifting employee and user expectations. Her multidisciplinary background in architecture, communications, user research, and business strategy enables her to bring a holistic and rigorous analytical approach to every project, for every client.
Elizabeth's expertise is widely recognized by the media and throughout the building sector. Her insights have appeared in leading publications, including The Los Angeles Times, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and The Architect’s Newspaper, and she has been a featured speaker at industry events, including for the Commercial Real Estate Development Association NAIOP National and the UCLA Anderson School of Management. In 2021, the Los Angeles Business Journal recognized her as one of its 10 “Women of Influence” honorees.
Deep engagement with the community ensures that Elizabeth’s work is always informed by a profound understanding of local needs and aspirations. She is a member of the Los Angeles Area Chamber of Commerce Board of Governors, the Women’s Presidents Organization, and formerly served on the Board of the Mayor’s Fund Los Angeles and the Board of Directors of the Westside Neighborhood School. Elizabeth holds a Bachelor of Arts from Princeton University and a Master of Architecture from UCLA.
BOARD OF ADVISORS
UCLA Anderson Forecast, Winter 2024 Board of Advisors–91
Joe Brusuelas
Principal & Chief Economist,
RSM US LLP
Joe Brusuelas, an award-winning economist, has more than 20 years’ experience analyzing U.S. monetary policy, labor markets, fiscal policy, international finance, economic indicators and the condition of the U.S. consumer. A member of the Wall Street Journal’s forecasting panel, Brusuelas regularly briefs members of Congress and other senior officials regarding the impacts of federal policy on the factors by which executives make business decisions.
He also frequently offers his insights on the U.S., Canadian and global economies in the financial media, including CNBC, Cheddar, NPR’s Marketplace, Yahoo! Finance, Financial Times, The New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, Axios and Politico. (Recent broadcast coverage and other media commentary can be found here.) In 2020, he was named one of the 100 most influential economists by Richtopia.
Before joining RSM in 2014, Brusuelas spent four years as a senior economist at Bloomberg L.P. and the Bloomberg Briefs newsletter group, where he co-founded the award-winning Bloomberg Economic Brief. Earlier in his career, he was a director at Moody's Analytics covering the U.S. and global economies for the Dismal Scientist website. He also served as chief economist at Merk Investments L.L.C. and chief U.S. economist at IDEAglobal.
Brusuelas completed all economy and public policy dissertation requirements for his Ph.D. at the University of Southern California.
Anthony Chow (EMBA '09)
CEO,
Newegg
Since 2020, Mr. Chow has served as Chief Executive Officer of Newegg Commerce, Inc. (“Newegg”), a leading e-commerce company offering direct sales and an online marketplace platform for computer components, consumer electronics, entertainment, smart home and gaming products and third-party logistics services. In this role, he is responsible for ensuring the continued success of the company’s business model and its e-commerce ecosystems, including helping merchants sell their products through the company’s marketplace platform.
Earlier in his career, Mr. Chow held executive positions at several global e-commerce corporations. He served as Vice President of Newegg’s North American business from 2006 until 2008. From 2008, he served as President of Newegg’s China operation and OZZO Logistics, China, a subsidiary of Newegg. In 2011, he became CEO of OTTO Group China where he served until 2015, and then was Vice President of Haier Group Corporation from 2015 until 2019.
Upon rejoining Newegg in 2019, Mr. Chow made sweeping changes to refine Newegg’s value proposition to position the company for future success. This began with a complete redesign of Newegg’s global platform by unifying the company’s vendor-direct and marketplace sales models. Additionally, he implemented a streamlined, domain-driven organizational structure optimized for modern scalable ecommerce operations.
Mr. Chow has earned extensive industry accolades in recent years, including his induction into the Digital Ecosystem Hall of Fame in August 2020; First China Cross-Border E-Commerce Outstanding Leader Golden Eagle Award in November 2020; Outstanding Contributor to Credit China in December 2020; Leading Cross-Border E-Commerce Enterprise Award in January 2021; appointed Chairman of the Special Committee of Shanghai Cross-Border E-Commerce Industry Association in January 2021; Cross-Border E-Commerce Person of the Year Award in December 2021; LA Times CFO&CEO Leadership Award in August 2021; and featured on the cover of Foreign Trade Magazine in November 2021.
Mr. Chow earned a Bachelor’s degree in electrical engineering from the University of Toledo in 1989, and a Master of Business Administration from the University of California Los Angeles Anderson School of Management in 2010. Additionally, he is a member of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE).
BOARD OF ADVISORS
92–Board of Advisors UCLA Anderson Forecast, Winter 2024
John Coscia, CFA
Senior Vice President,
Director, Portfolio & Funding,
City National Bank
John Coscia has been with City National Bank since 2000. He is responsible for managing and coordinating all market transaction activities within City National’s Treasury Department. This includes the strategic direction and oversight of the Bank’s fixed income portfolio, daily cash position, off-balance sheet hedging, wholesale borrowings, and Loan Pricing Desk. It also includes the management of the Bank's debt, capital, derivatives, and balance sheet position.
John has an MBA from USC’s Marshall School of Business and a BS in Probability & Statistics from the University of California at Santa Barbara.
Mia DeMontigny
Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer,
SoCalGas
Mia DeMontigny is senior vice president and chief financial officer for Southern California Gas Company (SoCalGas), a Sempra regulated California utility. She oversees SoCalGas’ Accounting and Finance and Gas Acquisition functions.
DeMontigny joined Sempra as assistant controller in 2015. Prior to that, she was U.S. assistant controller for National Grid from 2013 to 2015. In that role, she was responsible for overseeing accounting and financial reporting functions. Before National Grid, she worked at PwC in a variety of roles in the power and utilities industry group, including managing director.
DeMontigny serves on the board of directors, including chair of the finance committee, of Covenant House California. She holds a bachelor of commerce and a graduate degree in accountancy, both from Concordia University in Montreal, Quebec, Canada and is a certified public accountant.
BOARD OF ADVISORS
UCLA Anderson Forecast, Winter 2024 Board of Advisors–93
TaMiya Dickerson
Partner,
Americas FSO Business Consulting
EY
TaMiya is a partner in EY’s FSO Technology Risk practice, based in Los Angeles, California. She has more than twenty years of experience and focuses on technology risk management and corporate governance for publicly traded and regulated organizations across the financial services industry. She has a focus on emerging companies, FinTech and transaction settlement. Based on her experience serving, emerging companies, regional and global Fortune 100 entities, TaMiya is adept at creating effective programs and risk-based approaches for engagements.
TaMiya’s experience includes enterprise risk management, general computer controls, technology operations reviews, Service Organization Control (SOC) reports, Sarbanes Oxley (SOX) IT compliance services, systems selection and contiguration across the lifecycle.
TaMiya has a passion for business transformation - especially where technology and change management are foundations for change. Over the years she worked in London, Geneva, Kuala Lumpur, and Puerto Rico and has a reputation for excellence as a trusted business partner.
TaMiya received a master’s degree in accounting and a bachelor’s degree in business administration from the University of Southern California. She is a certified public accountant licensed in California. TaMiya is a member of the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants, National Association of Black Accountants, and the CalCPA. As a servant leader in the community, TaMiya is a member of the Board of Managers of the Ketchum YMCA. She is also a formal mentor at the University of Southern California for both the Marshall Business School and the Black Alumni Association. Outside of the office, TaMiya spends time with her family and their dog Rison. You may see her outdoors snowboarding, SCUBA diving or out for a round of golf.
Andrew Forchelli
Executive Vice President,
HUB California
As the regional executive for HUB’s Los Angeles and Orange County operations, Andrew has overarching responsibility for sales, talent management, claims, marketing, client services, carrier relationships and strategic planning. He also serves as a member of HUB California’s Executive Leadership team and executive champion for the region’s DEI committee.
Andrew began his insurance career in New York with The Chubb Group of Insurance Companies, and eventually became the Regional Underwriting Manager for Southern California. In 2006, Andrew joined GNW-Evergreen, a Los Angeles insurance brokerage firm with a strong presence in the entertainment industry, serving as President, Board Member and equity partner. In 2014, GNW-Evergreen was acquired by HUB International, and Andrew became the regional executive for the Los Angeles operation and president of HUB’s national entertainment practice.
Andrew is actively involved with the Children’s Hospital of Los Angeles’ Men’s Guild and Holidays from the Heart, a charity that supports underprivileged families with critically ill children. He is a past board member for the California Association of Insurance Professionals.
BOARD OF ADVISORS
94–Board of Advisors UCLA Anderson Forecast, Winter 2024
Ross Gerber
President & CEO,
Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and
Investment Management
Ross Gerber is the Co-Founder, President, and CEO of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management. Ross oversees Gerber Kawasaki's corporate and investment management operations as well as serves individual clients. Ross has become one of the most influential investors on social and traditional media. His investment ideas and advice have made him a regular in global business news as well on many of the most popular podcasts. He is a regular on Bloomberg, Reuters, Fox Business, Yahoo Finance, CNN, CNBC as well as a contributing writer for Forbes.com. He has appeared on many of the most popular podcasts including HyperChange TV, The Dave Portnoy Show, Meet Kevin on YouTube, The Pomp Podcast, and more.
Ross and the Gerber Kawasaki team oversee $2.1 billion of investments as of 10/21/21 focused on technology, electric vehicles, consumer, media, and entertainment companies for clients and the firm. Gerber Kawasaki is a leader in Fintech innovation leveraging technology and social media to work with a large diverse client base providing financial advice in scale. GK has grown to over 8000 clients and was listed as one of the fastest-growing companies in Los Angeles according to the LABJ. GK received several Diversity and Inclusion Awards within the financial industry and prides itself in representing the community.
GK is a leader in providing investment advice for the younger generation through its Wealth Building & Get Invested programs and the first major RIA to partner with Gemini and begin offering Digital Assets to clients. Ross is an expert in online marketing and social media as well as a co-developer of the company’s app for IOS, my-moneypage.
Ross received his BA in Communications from the Annenberg School at the University of Pennsylvania concentrating in Business Law at the Wharton School of Business, graduating class of 1993. Ross also received a second concentration in Classical Music Studies at the University of Pennsylvania and attended the Grove School of Music. He was born and raised in Los Angeles, CA, and attended Brentwood High School with the graduating class of 1989.
Carlos Gonzalez
Division President, Western Region,
Clark Construction Group
Carlos Gonzalez provides executive leadership for Clark Construction Group’s Southern California Region.
Carlos is responsible for the region’s day-to-day operations, business development, and preconstruction from project inception, contract negotiations, and monitoring construction progress.
Throughout his tenure at Clark, Carlos has served in project management, field supervision and overall leadership roles throughout Southern California, for clients including the San Diego Padres, Los Angeles County Museum of Art, Delta Airlines, Los Angeles World Airports, Walt Disney Imagineering, State of California, JMI Realty, Host Hotels & Resorts, NAVFAC, General Services Administration, Department of Veterans Affairs, University of California, and the California State University.
Carlos previously served as general manager for Clark Concrete in the Mid-Atlantic Region, leading Clark’s self-perform structural concrete business unit.
Carlos earned his bachelor’s degree in civil engineering from San Diego State University, his master’s degree in civil engineering from San Diego State University, and his master of business administration from the University of California, San Diego.
Carlos serves on the board of directors of the National ACE Mentor Program and Hope Builders. He also serves as a member of the Civil Engineering Advisory Board at San Diego State University.
BOARD OF ADVISORS
UCLA Anderson Forecast, Winter 2024 Board of Advisors–95
Yolla S. Kairouz
Executive Director,
J.P. Morgan Private Bank
Yolla S. Kairouz is an Executive Director and Banker in the Los Angeles office of J.P. Morgan Private Bank. She works closely with serial entrepreneurs and corporate executives of privately held companies and their families in the Beverly Hills and Westside communities to manage risk, maximize opportunities and create a lasting impact with their wealth.
Yolla fosters a consultative approach by listening actively and empathetically to her clients’ goals, concerns and aspirations. She and her team of talented specialists create and implement customized, goals-based strategies to preserve, manage and transition assets. She marshals the firm’s extensive resources as needed. With over 18 years of industry experience, Yolla spent the last 13 years at Wells Fargo and in various roles within the Wealth Management Group. Her tenure informs her nuanced understanding of the multifaceted complexities accompanying significant wealth.
Yolla earned her B.A. in Economics from California State University, Northridge; Executive M.B.A. from Loyola Marymount University; and Juris Doctorate from University of La Verne, College of Law. She completed the Accredited Wealth Management Advisor program, and she holds FINRA Series 6, 7, 63 and 65 securities licenses. She carries her Life and Health licenses from the California Department of Insurance. She completed numerous certifications through the Blockchain Council on blockchain, AI, and digital assets.
Yolla was named 2022 Leadership Fellow for Terrence E. Deal Leadership Institute. She has also authored several articles on wealth planning, and recently published a law review article for the Journal of Law, Business, and Ethics.
Born and raised in St. Cloud, Minnesota, Yolla has made Los Angeles her home. She cares deeply about the city’s local performing arts and veteran communities. She serves as a board member of the Young Musicians Foundation, a California board member of the U.S. Navy SEAL Museum, and a mentor for American Corporate Partners, a veteran-civilian career transitioning organization. During her leisure time, she enjoys backpacking, and believes wilderness skills easily translate into helping clients manage risk and uncertainty.
Vincent Iacopella
Executive Vice President, Growth & Strategy,
Alba Wheels Up International
Vincent Iacopella is the Executive Vice President Growth and Strategy at Alba Wheels Up International Inc.
Vince's responsibilities include leading Alba's expansion into new markets and to increase the portfolio of product offerings with a focus on trade sensitive imports and exports, as well as smart supply chain technology that drives value to importers and exporters.
At Alba, Vince, along with the owners and senior management team is responsible for leading efforts in sustainable topline growth and development and implementation of an integrated approach to sales and business development. Vince is responsible for driving creation and development of product and service enhancements aligned with CBP, FDA, and EPA’s Trade Modernization initiatives in the Automated Commercial Environment (ACE) as well as development of freight and supply chain products and their marketing to customers.
Along with the owners Vince works on Alba's strategic partnerships in the market to drive value to Alba's customers. Vince is based in the Los Angeles office, but works on behalf of the entire company.
Vince is a licensed Customs Broker and served as past president of the Los Angeles Customs Brokers and Forwarders Association. He is current president of the Pacific Coast Council of Customs Brokers and Freight Forwarders. In December 2013, he was appointed to the 13th Advisory Committee on Commercial Operations of Customs and Border Protection, better known as COAC. This 20-member council advises the secretaries of the Department of the Treasury and the Department of Homeland Security on the commercial operations of CBP and related DHS and Treasury functions. He currently serves on the COAC and as Trade co-chair of the 14th COAC Committee on Commercial Operations of Customs and Border Protection, better known as COAC.
BOARD OF ADVISORS
96–Board of Advisors UCLA Anderson Forecast, Winter 2024
Janet Lamkin
Senior Vice President,
Market & Community Innovation,
United Airlines
Janet Lamkin is the senior vice president of market and community innovation at United. Building on her work in California, Janet oversees other regions across the network, particularly our hubs. Her focus is on building customer loyalty in local markets, analyzing the competition in those markets, overseeing global sponsorships and leveraging partnerships to better serve United customers. Janet helped create partnerships with Clorox and the Cleveland Clinic to emphasize United’s cleanliness and safety measures. She also worked on the partnership with Peerspace to create Team Together, demonstrating United’s focus on responding to emerging customer needs by developing innovative solutions.
Before joining United, Janet served as California president for Bank of America. She was responsible for growing the business and strategically positioning the bank in California, including developing and maintaining relationships within the corporate, government and grassroots sectors. Janet spent 20 years with Bank of America, serving in a variety of senior management positions.
Janet was asked to join Governor Gavin Newsom’s state Task Force on Business and Jobs Recovery, a group of senior leaders from across a broad range of economic and social sectors, to advise the governor on rebuilding quickly and safely from the pandemic-induced recession. She serves on the UCSF Health Executive Council, which serves as the health system’s business advisory board.
Janet recently concluded a two-year term as the chair of the Bay Area Council, the first woman to hold that post. The San Francisco Business Times has recognized Janet as one of the 100 Most Influential Businesswomen in the Bay Area for eight consecutive years. She has been a champion of diversity, inclusion and women’s leadership throughout her career, and she speaks regularly on these issues. She sits on the boards of several nonprofit organizations, including the German Marshall Fund, SFMOMA, United Way Los Angeles and Coro Los Angeles.
A native of Stockton, California, Janet holds a bachelor’s degree in political science from Westmont College and a master’s degree in international relations from the Australian National University.
Spencer Kallick
Partner,
Allen Matkins
Spencer Kallick has decades of experience advising national investors, developers, institutional entities, high-net-worth individuals, and family offices in complex land use entitlements and real estate transactions. As operating partner of the Century City office, Spencer provides his clients with concierge legal services to deliver efficient, practical solutions that get deals done. Clients value the legal and management experience Spencer brings to their businesses, and many look to him as outside general counsel on a broad range of matters.
Spencer helps clients obtain entitlements, with extensive experience navigating a myriad of federal, state, county, and city land use and zoning regulations, including the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA), the California Coastal Act, and Density Bonus Law. He has worked on urban infill, mixed-use, transit-oriented, affordable housing, senior living, digital signage, hospitality, multifamily, and retail projects, with experience across virtually every major asset class. Spencer’s clients include some of the most prestigious developers and investors in the world, such as AvalonBay Communities, American Realty Advisors, Artisan Ventures, Blackstone, Cedars Sinai Medical Center, Choice Hotels, Digital Realty, EOS Investors, Faring, Goldrich Kest, Hines, JPMorgan, Kilroy, London & Regional Properties, LPC West, Oaktree, Pendulum Property Partners, RLJ Lodging Trust, Silver Creek Development, and Westbrook.
As a former city attorney handling land use matters, Spencer leverages his deep understanding of government processes and long-standing relationships at the federal, state, and local levels to resolve issues quickly for his clients. Having worked on development from both the public and private side of the aisle, Spencer has a holistic understanding of land use matters, and he’s able to create consensus on potentially contentious projects. Further, he has a curated contact list of architects, traffic engineers, environmental consultants, and other specialists enabling him to quickly assemble the right mix of personnel to further his clients’ business objectives.
BOARD OF ADVISORS
UCLA Anderson Forecast, Winter 2024 Board of Advisors–97
Jackie Levy
Chief Financial and Revenue Officer,
Caruso
As Chief Financial and Revenue Officer, Jackie Levy serves as a key executive team member, trusted CEO advisor, and strategic business partner to support the Company’s financial vision and to ensure the success of Caruso’s multi-billion-dollar portfolio of award-winning properties. He is responsible for aligning finance, leasing, marketing, and operations on developing business models and pricing strategies in a highly competitive and complex business environment and industry. Under Levy’s leadership, Caruso’s operating portfolio has achieved approximately 20% cumulative NOI growth year over year.
Having spent 16 years with Caruso, Levy has over 20 years of industry experience. Levy began his career in the shopping center industry at Westfield, with roles at multiple properties, before joining Caruso as the General Manager of The Grove and The Americana at Brand. He later served as Vice President of Operations, Senior Vice President of Operations and Executive Vice President of Operations, before assuming his role as Chief Business Officer in 2019. With Levy’s oversight, The Grove and The Americana at Brand have achieved the distinction of being ranked amongst the top ten highest sales-performing shopping centers in the world, while 8500 Burton Way has realized record rents in the Los Angeles market. As Chief Business Officer, Levy was responsible for the operations of all operating properties in the portfolio, encompassing retail, residential, office, hotel, and F&B. Levy also was integral in expanding the company’s asset base to include class-A innovative office space, reimagining the office experience for its Fortune 300 tenant, CBRE.
Levy graduated from San Diego State University with a Bachelor of Arts degree in communications.
Chang M. Liu (BA '90)
President & CEO,
Cathay Bank
Chang M. Liu is the President and Chief Executive Officer of Cathay Bank and a member of the Board of Directors of Cathay Bank and its holding company.
Chang joined Cathay Bank in 2014 and, prior to assuming the position of President and Chief Executive Officer in 2020, was responsible for, among other things, managing and overseeing all commercial and real estate lending, business development, and various operations.
Prior to his current role at Cathay Bank, Chang was the Executive Vice President and Chief Lending Officer at Banc of California (formerly known as “Pacific Trust Bank”) and under his leadership, increased the commercial real estate loan portfolio by $400 million in three years and the bank grew from $875 million to $3 billion in asset size. Chang received a Bachelor of Arts in Economics degree at UCLA and has more than 31 years of banking experience.
Aside from his business pursuits, Chang is a Board member of the Foothill Family, which provides comprehensive mental health care, early childhood development programs, and social services throughout the Greater Los Angeles region.
BOARD OF ADVISORS
98–Board of Advisors UCLA Anderson Forecast, Winter 2024
Brian Saenger (BA '95, CERT '19)
President & CEO,
The Ratkovich Company
Brian Saenger is the President and Chief Executive Officer of The Ratkovich Company, a Los Angeles-based real estate development company specializing in urban infill and historic rehabilitation of landmark properties. He previously served as the Company’s Chief Operating Officer and General Counsel and was responsible for overseeing the Company’s operations, including development management, property management, and legal and administrative functions. In 2021, Brian was named to the Los Angeles Business Journal’s list of 500 Most Influential People in Los Angeles.
Brian serves on the Los Angeles Area Chamber of Commerce’s “The CEO Council,” an advisory group of top business leaders focused on ensuring affordable housing for middle-income families and building a workforce that is prepared for the good-paying jobs of the future. He is also a member of the Urban Land Institute (ULI) and serves on the Urban Development and Mixed-Use Council. ULI is the oldest and largest network of cross-disciplinary real estate and land use experts in the world. Additionally, Brian is a member of the Board of Directors for the San Gabriel Valley Economic Partnership. He has previously served on the Board of Directors for the California YMCA Youth & Government program and was a past Chair of the Board.
Brian joined The Ratkovich Company as the Vice President of Acquisitions and played a leading role in the Company’s acquisition of The Bloc, a 1.8 million square foot, mixed-use property in downtown Los Angeles consisting of retail, office and hospitality uses. He also represented the Company in the successful negotiation of a 66-year ground lease for the development of West Harbor (formerly known as the San Pedro Public Market), a $150 million transformation of a 42-acre site along the Los Angeles waterfront in San Pedro. In August 2021, West Harbor was featured in the Los Angeles Times for landing seven high-profile restaurant and entertainment leases during the pandemic.
Prior to joining the Company, Brian served as the Company’s outside counsel when he practiced with the international law firms of DLA Piper LLP (US) and Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman.
Brian received his Juris Doctorate from Loyola Law School, Los Angeles, with honors, where he served as the Editor-in-Chief of the Loyola of Los Angeles Law Review. He received his Bachelor of Arts degree from the University of California, Los Angeles. Brian is a member of the State Bar of California and a licensed California real estate broker.
Candice Nakagawa
Western Region President,
Wilmington Trust
Candice oversees Wealth Management services across the state of California for Wilmington Trust, including administrative and business development functions for personal trust, investment management, and private banking. In this role, she oversees the development and coordination of Wealth Management services for high-net-worth and ultra-high-net-worth individuals, families, and institutional investment accounts, including nonprofit organizations, business owners, corporate executives, and professional service firms. Candice and her team work closely with clients and their advisors to develop financial strategies that help them meet their current needs and plan for their long-term objectives.
With over two decades’ experience in financial services, Candice most recently served as the Private Wealth Management market leader at U.S. Bank, where she was responsible for the Orange County market. She previously held many positions at MUFG Union Bank, leading Private Banking and Wealth Advisory teams in Southern California. During her tenure, Candice created the Wealth Management Professional Development Program as a pathway for career development and mentorship for the next generation of wealth advisors. She also served as the firm’s head of Women & Wealth, a community for women and women-owned businesses geared toward enhancing financial confidence and capabilities.
Candice holds an MBA from the Marshall School of Business at the University of Southern California and a bachelor’s degree in economics with a minor in Japanese studies from the University of California, San Diego. She is also a graduate of the national graduate school of banking, Pacific Coast Banking School.
Beyond her career, the native Angeleno is passionate about giving back to her community and paying it forward. She serves as a board member for the California Council on Economic Education, whose mission is to improve the state’s future by teaching economics and financial literacy, especially in underserved communities. She is also on the board of Women’s Voices Now, an organization striving to drive social change that advances women’s and girls’ rights globally. Candice takes joy in traveling the world and learning about new cultures. A former competitive open water swimmer and triathlete, she is also a certified advanced scuba diver who likes to explore the seas. She also enjoys skiing during the winter.
BOARD OF ADVISORS
UCLA Anderson Forecast, Winter 2024 Board of Advisors–99
Eugene D. Seroka
Executive Director,
Port of Los Angeles
Gene Seroka is the Executive Director of the Port of Los Angeles, the busiest container port in North America. He was nominated by Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti on May 27, 2014, and confirmed by the Los Angeles City Council on December 11, 2014.
As Executive Director, Seroka is responsible for managing a $939 million budget, advancing major capital projects; growing trade volumes and promoting innovative, sustainable practices that strengthen the region’s economy. His duties involve interacting with a wide range of stakeholders, including Port customers around the globe, industry partners, elected and appointed officials at all levels, harbor area residents and business leaders.
Seroka brings more than 25 years of experience in shipping, global logistics and executive management to the Port. Most recently, he was Head of Commercial in the Americas Region for American President Lines (APL) Limited. After several key overseas positions for APL, he returned to the U.S. in 2010 to become President – Americas for APL Limited in Phoenix where he managed APL’s Liner Shipping business, including 1,000 employees, and was responsible for all commercial, port terminal, intermodal, land transportation and labor activities throughout the region.
Seroka joined APL, a wholly owned subsidiary of Singapore-based Neptune Orient Lines (NOL) and the world’s seventh largest ocean carrier, in 1988 as a sales support representative in the company’s Cincinnati office after earning an MBA and Bachelor of Science in Marketing from the University of New Orleans. Over the years, he has held various positions in sales and management with increasing responsibility and high-level assignments all over the world. Throughout his career, he played a key role in global marketing and corporate strategies for APL.
Seroka’s first overseas posting was in Shanghai where he served as Director of Sales and Marketing for North and Central China from 1999 to 2003. He then moved to Jakarta where he was President Director of PT APL and APL Logistics in Indonesia for two years before relocating to Singapore in 2005 to become Vice President of APL Logistics’ business units in 26 countries in the company’s Asia/Middle East and South Asia regions. From 2008 to 2010, he served as Vice President for APL and APL Logistics Emirates LLC in Dubai where he managed APL’s business in the Middle East and East Africa Region.
David L. Tuyo, II
President & CEO,
University Credit Union
David L. Tuyo II, DBA, MBA serves as the President and CEO of University Credit Union. Dr. Tuyo is a veteran of the financial services industry where he has served financial institutions in a multitude of roles including COO, CFO, and Chief Investment Officer. His career in the financial services industry spans over 20 years, with the majority dedicated to serving credit unions. Dr. Tuyo’s education includes a DBA from California Southern University, an MBA from Mississippi State University and a Bachelors in Finance from the University of Mobile.
BOARD OF ADVISORS
100–Board of Advisors UCLA Anderson Forecast, Winter 2024
Linton White
Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Kaiser Permanente, Southern California and
Hawaii
Linton White oversees the finance strategy and operations for Kaiser Permanente Southern California and Hawaii Markets. The markets serve over 5 million members. In this role, Linton leads the markets’ efforts to ensure strong financial planning and controls are in place to support the Kaiser Permanente mission to provide high quality, affordable care to the communities we serve.
Prior to this role, Linton served as Vice President, Financial Planning and Performance for Northern California Market. Linton led all aspects of financial and business planning and performance for the market, including but not limited to development of short and long term financial operational plans, regional rate setting, budgeting and forecasting, financial operations for hospital, continuum, and pharmacy, capital financial services, financial data and systems supports, and provided functional oversight to 14 Area Finance Officers.
During 2021, Linton served as Interim Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer for Kaiser Foundation Hospitals and Health Plan in Northern California. In this interim role, Linton oversaw the finance strategy, planning, and operations for Kaiser Permanente Northern California which serves over 4.5 million members.
Linton has over 25 years of financial and operational experience working within health systems, hospitals, home healthcare, physician practice management, and the healthcare product and supply industries. Prior to joining Kaiser, he served as District CFO for the West Region for Kindred Healthcare. His responsibilities included oversight of financial operations and performance for 22 long-term acute care hospitals covering five states (California, Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Washington).
Throughout Linton’s career, which started in Chicago, Illinois with Baxter Healthcare, he has played a significant leadership role in moving organizations’ financial performance forward while partnering with operational leaders to deliver operational results. He obtained his bachelor’s degree from Indiana University, attended Executive MBA program St. Mary’s College, and is currently attending Harvard Business School’s Executive Leadership Program.
SPECIAL INITIATIVES
UCLA Anderson Forecast, Winter 2024 Forecast Fellows–101
UCLA Anderson Forecast Fellows Program
The UCLA Anderson Forecast Fellows Program was officially launched in January 2022 to award one-year
fellowships to two undergraduate students currently enrolled at California State University, Dominguez Hills
(CSUDH).
Over the course of the initial year, CSUDH faculty and staff as well as Forecast economists will be serving as
sponsors and be paired with each fellow to provide a supportive environment to ensure their success. The
sponsors will work with the fellows on training, software, research progress, and other aspects of the program
to maximize the overall experience. At the same time, the fellows will be invited and encouraged to attend
selected MBA lectures in order to gain a better understanding of the overall graduate school experience.
At the conclusion of the year, the fellows will have completed a research paper, which will be published by the
Forecast and featured at a quarterly conference.
The UCLA Anderson Forecast extends its appreciation and a sincere thanks to Edison International for their
generosity in bringing this initiative to fruition.
2023-24
Forecast Fellows
Dwanjai Oprien Marcelo Cowo
SPECIAL FORECAST SUPPORTERS
102–Special Forecast Supporters UCLA Anderson Forecast, Winter 2024
S P E C I A L F O R E C A S T S U P P O R T E R S
S T E V E N C . G O R D O N
R I C H A R D S . Z I M A N
SPECIAL FORECAST SUPPORTERS
UCLA Anderson Forecast, Winter 2024 Special Forecast Supporters–103
The Mercury Insurance Climate Economist
exclusively focuses on understanding climate
change and its impact on the year-to-year
evolution of the California economy. As the
nation’s most populous state with the fifth
largest economy in the world, California ranks
among the top for states that are suffering
from climate related issues. Ongoing wildfires,
floods, droughts, air pollution and heat waves
are causing deep uncertainty about our
environment’s future. As a highly specialized
research center, the Forecast is uniquely
prepared to support California’s climate goals
while being able to provide the public, media
and policymakers with critical insights on the
economy.
The UCLA Anderson Forecast extends
its gratitude and appreciation to Mercury
Insurance for their generosity.
Learn more about the Mercury Insurance
Climate Economist Zhiyun Li.
near Greendell School. It is entirely filled with children's books and
toys. You'll find picture books, school age fiction and non-fiction, fiction
for teens, award winners, non-English titles, CDs and DVDs, and books
for parents and teachers, many for 50 cents or $1. Strollers are
welcome in the Children's Room at any time.
Bargain Books in H-2
The Bargain Room is located in Rooms H-2 and H-3 of the Cubberley
main campus, between our Main Room and Middlefield Road. On
Saturday, paperbacks are $1, hardcovers are $2, and children's books
are 50 cents each. The room also contains many records, CDs, and
DVDs at $1 each. On Sunday, the room opens at 11 am and all prices
are half off. Or, save even more on Sunday by buying green FOPAL
reusable bags from us for $4/ea (or bring your own grocery-size
reusable bag) and stuffing them with any items in the room for $5/bag.
Fill four bags at $5/bag and fill a fifth bag FREE! (We no longer receive
sufficient used paper grocery bags along with donations for this
purpose.)
Library News
The most important news may be that the Library plans to be closed around the Christmas and New Years holidays. Plan accordingly.
Mitchell Park and Rinconada Libraries will close early at 5 PM on Tuesday, December 24, remain closed on Wednesday, December 25, and reopen at
10 AM on Thursday, December 26; also they will close early at 5 PM on Tuesday, December 31, remain closed on Wednesday, January 1, and
reopen at 10 AM on Thursday, January 2.
Children's, College Terrace, and Downtown Libraries will be closed from Tuesday, December 24 through Wednesday, January 1, and reopen at 10
AM on Thursday, January 2.
But maybe more interesting news is that Rinconada Library has a Seed Library.
You could find out about these sorts of things in a slightly more timely manner by subscribing to the Library's mailing list. Like us, they send one or
two messages per month, more usually one.
You can find out about other things they want you to know from the Palo Alto City Library Blogs page. Or you can subscribe to them with an RSS
reader.
-Frank McConnell
Super Sensational Seasonal Book Sale
December is a time for giving and receiving, and here at FOPAL, we're giving our members another Members' Early Sale! All FOPAL paid members
will enjoy early entry before the usual 11 AM start time. Please note that this changes the usual Main Room entry procedure. See the section below
for details on the Members' Early Sale.
We're thrilled to announce a spectacular donation this month: over 100 boxes of books from the estate of Robert Andrew Brown. We extend our
heartfelt thanks to his family for their generous contribution. His collection spans a wide range of genres, with a special focus on Military History,
which includes 23 boxes from this collection in the Bargain Room's Military History Section! To read more about this beloved husband, father,
grandfather, entrepreneur and veteran, check out https://www.dailygazette.com/leader_herald/obituaries/robert-andrew-brown/article_2aed38b9-
15f6-5db9-945b-80c88cedb018.html
Our Sports & Transportation section manager is spotlighting a special collection related to sailing. The majority of this large donation will be in
the Bargain Room, with a special selection in the Main Room.
Don't miss out on all the giftable books in the Children's Room! There will be an extra big sale just for the overflowing kids' game area. The
Ephemera section has been completely restocked with new donations and will feature a large selection of LIFE magazines. The Native American
section has also seen a strong influx of new donations and will highlight several interesting books and media items.
We're also shining a spotlight on our Russian Languages section, which received an extra donation of Russian fiction books. You'll find these
treasures in both the Bargain Room and the Main Room.
Thank you for your continued support, and happy shopping!
-Janette Herceg
FOPAL Members Get the First Pick at Members' Early Sale
A fun and fabulous FOPAL Members' Early Sale is scheduled for Saturday, December 14th. Twice a year, FOPAL holds a Members' Early Sale, at
which members of the Friends of the Palo Alto Library are admitted early to the Main Room sale.
Life and Sponsor Members Enter at 9am
At our Members' Early Sale, Life Members and Sponsors (each with up to one spouse or guest) may enter at 9am and can purchase up to 100 books
per membership from 9am to 10am. Each (Life or Sponsor) member must give the one Purchase Slip per membership to the cashier before 10am in
order to purchase up to 100 books. If a Life Member exits without purchasing all 100 books, he/she may take the Purchase Slip and reenter to fill
out the 100 books as long as they are purchased by 10am.
Other Members Enter at 10am
Members at all other levels can enter the sale at 10am, and purchase up to 25 items per membership except Family Members may purchase up to
25 items for each of two adult members at a time. All members may enter with their families, including one accompanying adult and children.
At 11am, non-members are admitted. The limit on purchasing 12 books at a time lasts until there is no longer a line waiting to enter. New
memberships can be purchased and expired memberships can be renewed beginning at 8am.
Ticket Handout Procedure
At the Members' Early Sale, tickets are given only to members of FOPAL and are for two lines: one for entry at 9am, one for entry at 10am. Each
member will get just one ticket, although Life & Sponsor Members may bring one guest between 9am and 10am and other Members may bring in
their families, consisting of one other adult and minor children, beginning at 10am.
We do encourage members to bring Membership Cards even if expired; they do help the ticketing move more quickly. People who come early are
members of FOPAL and so there's a greatly reduced line for the 11am general entry. No tickets are given out for the 11am general entry line.
You may renew your membership, or join FOPAL, that day. Renew, or join now at www.fopal.org/join!
-Janette Herceg
Terrain Changes at Cubberley Community Center
Our Main Room is now somewhat divided from the adjacent parking lot by barricades. This has been done to provide a pedestrian and bicycle path
for (among others) students at the schools hosted at Cubberley Community Center and facilities located adjacent to it. It doesn't block parking or
access but does block vehicle access from the Main Room's adjacent parking lot to the larger parking lot behind the campus. It does make a
pedestrian and bike-safe path between our Main Room and Children's Room, though.
However, these barricades are temporary, and are really intended to provide a path while another path is closed so that public restrooms can be
built for the play fields out back. More information is available at the City's web site.
Also temporary, but longer term, there is a plan to put a temporary fire station in the Main Room's adjacent parking lot, which I think has previously
been mentioned in this newsletter. If that plan is approved work could begin as soon as late January. That temporary fire station is expected to be in
place for 24 months. More information on the fire station replacement project is available at the City's web site.
-Frank McConnell
Children's Room
This month you'll find a multitude of holiday books on our tables of Christmas, Hanukkah, Kwanzaa, and Wintertime books and DVDs. The selection
is amazing this year, thanks to our donors, and most are priced at just 50 cents or a dollar. Don't miss this!
Shop our Activity section and check off many of the items on your gift list. We have something for everyone, at remarkably low prices! This month,
we have been inundated/blessed with LEGOs. We have holiday kits, "everyday" kits, and many, many, many pounds of loose bricks--bagged and
priced to sell. Our shelves are overflowing with games (many brand new) for every age group. There are also Kiwi kits and Tinker kits, most unused.
Don't miss our trays of stocking-stuffers/tchotchkes--and, as usual, our graphic novel shelves are packed!
The Non-fiction section boasts a gorgeous like-new Star Wars pop-up book, but only one copy, alas. Also check out the many lovely Art books on the
Non-fiction display table.
In Beginning Readers you'll find a great selection of Mo Willems's "Elephant and Piggie" books, as well as loads of books for early readers. Need
movies to watch during school vacation? We have lots of those too, on the DVDs shelves. Look on the Parenting shelves for books for new parents
and parents of teens--and some giftable journals for grandparents to record their own childhood memories to share with their grandchildren.
Look for the NPR list of the best 100 books for school-age children in our School-age Fiction section. You can find many of those titles on the
Classics and Award-winning Authors shelves. And in the same area there's a good selection of the popular Diary of a Wimpy Kid series. In Classics
we also have gift-quality, beautifully illustrated copies of The Wizard of Oz; The Jungle Book; a read-aloud Charlotte's Web; The Lion, the Witch and
the Wardrobe; and several volumes of The World Treasury of Children's Literature. Look in the Fantasy section for an excellent selection of Rick
Riordan, Eoin Colfer, and Erin Hunter books. There is also a giftable box set of the first four hardbacks in the Harry Potter series--they were
originally $50, but our price is just $25. If your readers prefer graphic novels, look in Award-winning Authors for the beautifully illustrated books
with few words by Brian Selznick: The Invention of Hugo Cabret, Wonderstruck, and The Marvels.
The Asian Languages shelves are packed with beautiful donations, especially Chinese books (both traditional and simplified). This is a great chance
to grab interesting books of all types--picture books, chapter books, reference, manga--to share with family and friends over the winter break, or for
independent reading. We also have gift-quality picture books in Korean.
Here's an idea: bring a friend to the sale and introduce them to the FoPAL Children's Room. You'll both be glad you did! We look like a "real"
children's bookstore and our merch is high quality, but we are easy on the wallet. Happy holidays!
-Carolyn Davidson
Children's Vintage
December means "holidays" and we have LOTS of Christmas books (both religious and Santa-based) for both big and small readers. We also have a
small collection of books on Hanukkah that may be of interest. If you're thinking a vintage children's book (or books!) is just the thing for someone
on your holiday list, check out the following: 14 volume set of The History of the United States (New World to FDR) by American Heritage, 8 volume
set of a Picturesque Tale of Progress, or a 14 volume Childcraft encyclopedia. All of them are in great shape and of great value. Also giftable are a
couple of L. Frank Baum Oz books (Cowardly Lion of Oz, Land of Oz, and Emerald City of Oz) and many hardback and paperback books featuring
Charles Schultz's Peanuts and the Gang. All this in addition to the usual varied assortment that makes up children's vintage. Shelf pictures of some
of the treasures are available at www.fopalbooks.com.
-Lisa Heitman
Book Review: Eragon by Christopher Paolini
When a 15-year-old boy named Eragon stumbles upon a dark blue stone, he starts turning the wheels of fate in this first book of the series, The
Inheritance Cycle. Upon taking the stone home, to Eragon's shock, the "stone" begins to hatch. From within the lapis shells, the young dragon
Saphira awakens. The two quickly bond, putting them both onto a path of peril as dragon and dragon rider. They are soon hunted by dangerous
beings who seek their deaths; Eragon and Saphira must survive the treacherous journey to a safe haven.
Set in an enthralling place of wonder, magic, and untold dangers, Eragon will resonate with middle readers who love anything from fantasy to elves
to dragons! Readers often compare this book to a delightful blend of How to Train Your Dragon and Lord of the Rings, and I can't help but agree
wholeheartedly. Moreover, Eragon is only the beginning of a much more intricate story. Enriched by four more amazing books that develop into a
rich and incredibly well-written world, your child is sure to enjoy partaking in the journey with the characters they will have grown to love.
Eragon contains depictions of violence and mild language. However, the protagonist does develop maturity and wisdom from positive role models in
this coming-of-age novel. Therefore this book is recommended for 12- to 15-year-olds.
-Emma Chen
Poetry
Chill December brings the sleet,
Blazing fire, and Christmas treat.
Here's some rhyming treats for you,
Verse to last the season through.
Rod McKuen, how ya doin'?
Adrienne Rich has found her niche.
A.E. Housman, one in a thousand.
All these treats and many more.
See what Poetry has in store.
https://fopalbooks.com/poetry.html
-Mandy MacCalla
Computers
Some unusual items this month: Synthetic Programming on the HP-41 is a prize for collectors of HP hand-helds. Two different takes on PowerPoint:
The Cognitive Style of PowerPoint by Tufte and How PowerPoint Makes You Stupid by Frommer. The UNIX System by S.R. Bourne, and What is
ChatGPT Doing by Stephen Wolfram.
-David Cortesi
Music CDs
At the December FOPAL sale, the CD section will be selling NEW CDs - CDs sealed in the MFG's original shrink wrap. Selections include Rock, Jazz,
Classical, New Age AND 10 Taylor Swift CDs. Prices of these items are a fraction (1/4 to 1/2) of the prices of the same items listed for sale on
Amazon. Pick up NEW (not used) CDs at GREAT prices! Maybe a Christmas gift for someone?
https://fopalbooks.com/specials.html
-John Scheibe
Health
It's December and the holidays will soon be here. If you need a special gift, or just want to read an interesting tome, there are plenty of offerings in
the Health section. Try one of these: Outlive: the Science and Art of Longevity, The Song of the Cell, The Invisible Kingdom, The People's Hospital,
Deadliest Enemy and American Detox: The Myth of Wellness and How We Can Do Better.
To get a head-start on the New Year, some of these titles might be useful: The Forks and Knives Plan, The Longevity Diet, The Paleovedic Diet,
Simply Keto, The Fiber Fueled Cookbook, Dropping Acid: the Reflux Diet Cookbook, plus many more.
Don't forget to check out the lower shelves in this section: you might miss something.
-Suzanne Cholko
Humor
This month for the first time we have a donation from what is known as the Golden Age of British Comedy. We have 15 books by Spike Milligan as
well as the Goons. These are considered to be the precursor to Monty Python and whose most famous devoted fan was the then Prince Charles who
used to perform their skits. In a similar vein we have Private Eye, Kenneth Williams and Stanley Holloway. Plus our usual collections of Wodehouse
and Flann O'Brien.
-Nigel Jones
Sociology/Anthropology
For the upcoming sale, the Sociology/Anthropology section offers 520 books. Although all of them deserve attention, I will point to two books
whose topics seem most relevant to current events. The Sociology of Criminology sub-section features Our Criminal Society: The Social and Legal
Sources of Crime in America by Edwin M. Schur. This is how a reader describes the book first published in 1969: "Schur's authoritative analysis of
criminological findings shows that if Americans really want to curb crime, they must act now to promote massive social and economic changes,
reassess basic values, and reform the principles of criminal law." In the U.S.: Self-Reflection sub-section, you will find another authoritative study:
Samuel Huntington's Who Are We? The Challenges to America's National Identity. In the book, a renowned American political scientist and historian
writes about "an identity crisis ... as he examines the impact other civilizations and their values are having on our own country."
-Natalia Koulinka
Judaica
Browse the Judaica section for books on the Jewish religion and culture including editions of the Torah and other basic texts, Kabbalah, Jewish
history, the Holocaust, memoirs, Israel, Jewish Women, the Jewish American Experience and other related subjects.
Special interest this month -
No Room for Small Dreams: Courage, Imagination and the Making of Modern Israel
Israel in Three Dimensions: A Photographic Album of Israel's Landscapes in Three Dimensions
Angels in the Sky: How a Band of Volunteer Airmen Saved the New State of Israel
You Never Call! You Never Write!: A History of the Jewish Mother
Ellis Island to Ebbets Field: Sport and the American Jewish Experience
JPS Tanakh for Jewish Personnel in the Armed Forces of the United States(Pocket sized)
Most fiction with Jewish themes will be found in Modern Literature/Classics or Current Fiction. Books entirely in Hebrew are shelved in the
European Languages section.
Shelf photos at https://fopalbooks.com/judaica.html
-Charlotte Epstein, Judaica Section Manager
The West
This month we have a large selection of Images of America books about various Bay Area cities and towns. We have many books on the history of
California, San Francisco as well as on the West in general. Among the history books are books on the gold rush, cross country trips, and
earthquakes. There are also several books on scenic areas such as Yosemite.
-Ed Walker
Music Pop-Up Sale
Our December Music Pop Up Sale will include over 25 red bins of new selections in all genres of music.
-George Chaltas
More Music More Music More Music More Music
As was done in November, one curated box of higher value vinyl records will be on the CD table near the cashiers, all weekend. Last month we sold
most of them so we've added more jazz and rock records. Members will have earlier access.
-Henry Yu
Self-Help/Personal Growth
The shelves are full of books, including four shelves of "Popular on Amazon". Many books are gift giving quality - especially check out the 'published
in 2023-2024' section, Little Books and card decks (Power Deck and Mindfulness on the Go). With 2025 upon us, the Journals and Workbook
sections are worth browsing. I've made a section of four books by Abraham-Hicks, teachings that have helped me improve my life through my
thoughts and emotions. Look on the lower shelves for a small section of books by Cheri Huber, fun and insightful, HAND written books, including the
popular There is Nothing Wrong with You.
SPECIAL OFFER: There are over 60 copies of the very popular book Mindset, by Carol Dweck, Stanford psychologist. It features transformative
insights into redefining success, building lifelong resilience and supercharging self-improvement. There's enough to teach a class, run a workshop,
have a study group or give to friends. Buy 10 or more and pay only $1 per book. Joy and Peace,
-Marnie
Fantasy and Science Fiction
In Fantasy and Science Fiction the main thing is a big selection of vintage paperbacks, mainly from the 60s but some earlier and later. This
includes lots of titles that aren't seen frequently. There's almost a whole shelf of anthologies from Groff Conklin, Judith Merrill, Fred Pohl, and others.
The top shelf has a set of John Brunner's dystopian trilogy: Stand on Zanzibar (population), The Sheep Look Up (pollution), and the hardest-to-find,
The Jagged Orbit (paranoia). If that's not depressing enough, there's a half-dozen J.G. Ballard apocalypses -- take your pick: drown, freeze,
hallucinate, or just fade into ennui. A batch of newer Stephen King books are here to terrify you back to the present.
Shelf pictures at fopalbooks.com.
-Rich McAllister
History
Some very nice volumes this month, many of which would make wonderful gifts! Browse the red cart for illustrated books on a variety of subjects,
or pick up an antique volume at a bargain price. Over 900 volumes to choose from, ranging from the academic to the lighter aspects of world
history.
-Lin McAllister
Donations
We accept donations on Monday through Saturday from 3-5 pm in the Main Room. But we close to donations in the week before the sale so that we
can prepare the Main Room for the sale, which means that we are closed for donations from Sunday December 8 through Sunday December 15.
Please hold your donations until Monday December 16.
We will also be closed Tuesday December 24 and Wednesday December 25 for the Christmas holiday. And also Tuesday December 31 and
Wednesday January 1, 2025 for the New Year's holiday.
Please read our donation guidelines before you bring materials to us.
Suggestions?
We're always eager to hear your suggestions for ways to improve our book sale. Please email us at suggestions@friendspaloaltolib.org.
This notice comes to you from the non-profit organization Friends of the Palo Alto Library. No trees were felled in the making of this e-mail. Visit our web site. Become a
member by joining online.
Be sure to receive your own free copy of this e-mail notice so that you'll know about all special upcoming books sales. To sign up, just e-mail us. We carefully protect the
privacy of your e-mail address. We will not share your e-mail address with any other organization and we will not use it for any purpose other than to send you these notices.
If you do not wish to receive these e-mail notices in the future, please reply with the words "Remove Me" in the first line of the text.
Dear Mayor and Council Members,
On behalf of City Manager Ed Shikada, please view the following links for the amended agenda and staff responses to questions submitted by Council Member
Tanaka:
December 16 Amended Agenda
Staff responses to Item 13
Thank you,
Joanna
Joanna Tran
Executive Assistant to the City Manager
Office of the City Manager
(650) 329-2105 | joanna.tran@cityofpaloalto.org
www.cityofpaloalto.org
From "Tran, Joanna" <>
Subject Council Consent Questions: 12/16/24
To "Council, City" <city.council@cityofpaloalto.org>
Cc Executive Leadership Team <ExecutiveLeadershipTeam@cityofpaloalto.org>
Date December 12, 2024, 4:56:33 PM PST
Dividend stocks ideas → Dividend Ideas
This email was sent to you because you signed up to receive Wall Street Breakfast.
If you do not want to receive Wall Street Breakfast emails, click here to unsubscribe.
Sent by Seeking Alpha, 244 5th Ave, Suite 2705, New York, NY 10001
currently limited to ~5,500 cfs, which is why the "initial overflow location" in the table is shown as "P-C bridge". The analysis does
assume the replacement of the Newell Road bridge and site "4B" refers to a pinch point just east of the Newell bridge that was not
included in the EIR preferred alternative. The four options from slide 3 are:
# Action Type Description
Modified Channel
Capacity
(Euclid Ave to HWY
101)
Initial
Overflow
Location
Rough Order
of
Magnitude
Cost
0 Nothing No channel changes 4,600 cfs Site 1
(Euclid)$0
1 Widening per EIR Widen 1,600 LF at Site 1 5,500 cfs P-C bridge $35.3M
2 Widening per EIR +
Site 4B
Widen 1,600 LF Site 1 + 2,600 LF
Site 4B 6,100 cfs P-C bridge $53.7M
3 WRA Widening WRA widen 6,400 LF of Reach 2 6,550 cfs P-C bridge $106.3M
For option 1 (relative to option 0) we get an extra 900 cfs containment east of Euclid Avenue for $35M. For option 2, we get an
additional 600 cfs (over option 1) for another $18M. And for option 3, we get an extra 450 cfs (over option 2) for another $53M. It
looks like option 3 is less cost effective, even though the target 6,550 cfs is a worthy goal in that it would contain the 2022 NYE
flow (6,260 cfs). An important point to know is that the WRA analyses were done using "steady flow" calculations, i.e., a
continuous flow so that the creek reaches a maximum steady flow, versus "unsteady flow" where the flow is controlled according
to a time varying hydrograph. The "steady flow" approach is desirable and conservative in that, with climate change, we don't
know how high flows from future storms will be nor how long they will last.
These results are promising and consistent with recommendations I sent to the SFCJPA board in early 2024 about needed Reach 2
analyses (see this link). Still, the amount of flow to be contained from this stage of the analysis is less than the ~7500 cfs
envisioned in the previous EIR study. However, the real working capacity of Reach 2 is higher than the table estimates above and
can only be determined by the additional analyses of P-C bridge modification options and tolerable flood wall additions (typically
on the order of 3-4 feet maximum height).
It is clear that the overall costs for reducing flood risks from the creek along Reach 2 have risen substantially as the years of
perseverating over what to do have flown by. Also, these estimated costs are preliminary and probably do not include items like
purchasing easements on bordering properties or possible legal costs. Taking preliminary cost estimates from slide 4 into
account, the total cost may approach $150M. The achievable funding for the project will undoubtedly be a major factor in
deciding what can be done and when. n P C ri g c ang s ill th last o be un r aken r sc n k e de sAny P-C bridge changes will be the last to be undertaken, so Crescent Park residents
ill ave t t man y ar r o g t f oo re ief!will have to wait many years more to get flood relief!
The slides for this presentation were not distributed before the November 21 meeting so Board members and the audience could
not absorb everything in real time. A more extensive discussion of the WRA work will likely be the topic of the next SFCJPA
Board meeting on December 19.
l oa Bri Repl c me tNewell Road Bridge Replacement
The replacement of the Newell Road bridge is being managed by the City of Palo Alto in coordination with the state Caltrans
department. The overall project is described at this link, and the current status is summarized at this link. The status summary
presented to the City Council in late October is copied below. Per Brad Eggleston, Palo Alto Director of Public Works, Caltrans
approved the project’s Right-of-Way Certification on October 11, 2024, a significant step toward being able to move into
construction. It had been hoped to begin construction in 2025, but negotiations for programming construction funding slipped so
that construction may not occur until 2026. City staff is continuing to try to negotiate earlier Caltrans funding.
Let me know if you have questions or comments and I'll let you know when more details about the December 19 SFCJPA meeting
are available...
Regards, Tom R.
--
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Crescent Park PA" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to crescent-park-
pa+unsubscribe@googlegroups.com.
To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/crescent-park-pa/049d80f6-1e6d-4481-b370-
ceeb2a12c4d5%40stanford.edu.
For option 1 (relative to option 0) we get an extra 900 cfs containment east of Euclid Avenue for $35M. For option 2, we get an
additional 600 cfs (over option 1) for another $18M. And for option 3, we get an extra 450 cfs (over option 2) for another $53M. It
looks like option 3 is less cost effective, even though the target 6,550 cfs is a worthy goal in that it would contain the 2022 NYE
flow (6,260 cfs). An important point to know is that the WRA analyses were done using "steady flow" calculations, i.e., a
continuous flow so that the creek reaches a maximum steady flow, versus "unsteady flow" where the flow is controlled according
to a time varying hydrograph. The "steady flow" approach is desirable and conservative in that, with climate change, we don't
know how high flows from future storms will be nor how long they will last.
These results are promising and consistent with recommendations I sent to the SFCJPA board in early 2024 about needed Reach 2
analyses (see this link). Still, the amount of flow to be contained from this stage of the analysis is less than the ~7500 cfs
envisioned in the previous EIR study. However, the real working capacity of Reach 2 is higher than the table estimates above and
can only be determined by the additional analyses of P-C bridge modification options and tolerable flood wall additions (typically
on the order of 3-4 feet maximum height).
It is clear that the overall costs for reducing flood risks from the creek along Reach 2 have risen substantially as the years of
perseverating over what to do have flown by. Also, these estimated costs are preliminary and probably do not include items like
purchasing easements on bordering properties or possible legal costs. Taking preliminary cost estimates from slide 4 into
account, the total cost may approach $150M. The achievable funding for the project will undoubtedly be a major factor in
deciding what can be done and when. n P C ri g c ang s ill th Any P-C bridge changes will be the ast t un r ak n r sc nt ark re den slast to be undertaken, so Crescent Park residents
ill ave t will have to t man y ar e o g t f oo relie !wait many years more to get flood relief!
The slides for this presentation were not distributed before the November 21 meeting so Board members and the audience could
not absorb everything in real time. A more extensive discussion of the WRA work will likely be the topic of the next SFCJPA
Board meeting on December 19.
ewe l oa Bridg e ac m nNewell Road Bridge Replacement
The replacement of the Newell Road bridge is being managed by the City of Palo Alto in coordination with the state Caltrans
department. The overall project is described at this link, and the current status is summarized at this link. The status summary
presented to the City Council in late October is copied below. Per Brad Eggleston, Palo Alto Director of Public Works, Caltrans
approved the project’s Right-of-Way Certification on October 11, 2024, a significant step toward being able to move into
construction. It had been hoped to begin construction in 2025, but negotiations for programming construction funding slipped so
that construction may not occur until 2026. City staff is continuing to try to negotiate earlier Caltrans funding.
Let me know if you have questions or comments and I'll let you know when more details about the December 19 SFCJPA meeting
are available...
Regards, Tom R.
e Abando d Co ne Sho s Ge t ng Transf r d In o M llio - llar Ho sThe Abandoned Corner Shops Getting Transformed Into Million-Dollar Homes
Read in The Wall Street Journal: https://apple.news/AzdxKfWcJQ5KLrzkGzFXuxA
Shared from Apple News
Sent from my iPhone
From Henry Etzkowitz <>
Subject THE WALL STREET JOURNAL: The Abandoned Corner Shops Getting Transformed Into Million-Dollar
Home
To City Council <city.council@cityofpaloalto.org>
Date December 12, 2024, 1:50:42 AM PST
LWVUS—and we—are moving
1.
2.
Civil Grand Jury Explained: The Purpose, Power, and Selection of the
Civil Grand Jury in Santa Clara County
Wednesday, December 11, 2024
7:00 pm to 8:00 pm
Annette,
That's great to hear. Thanks for updating us.
Pat
-----Original Message-----
From: Annette Isaacson
Sent: Monday, December 9, 2024 9:16 PM
To: Burt, Patrick ; Council, City
Cc: Binder, Andrew ; Lee, David
Subject: thank you
CAUTION: This email originated from outside of the organization. Be cautious of opening attachments and
clicking on links.
Dear Pat,
I want to thank you for giving me the police chief's email so I could write him to discuss the recent thefts in
the Webster St. neighborhood.
After I contacted Chief Binder, he asked Police Officer David Lee to respond to my email. Officer Lee talked
with me about what our neighborhood could do to help prevent future thefts. We scheduled a Neighborhood
Watch meeting, and Officer Lee graciously offered to come.
There was a big turnout for the meeting this evening, (over 20 neighbors attended), and not only did Officer
Lee come, but so did Officer Zac and Officer Con. They discussed crime prevention and answered all of the
neighbors' questions. They were great representatives of the Police Department and of the City of Palo Alto.
Our neighborhood is very appreciative of the police department's response to the recent thefts, including
being able to recover the stolen Corvette.
Sincerely,
Annette Isaacson
From "Burt, Patrick" <>
Subject RE: thank you
To Annette Isaacson <>, "Council, City" <city.council@cityofpaloalto.org>
Cc "Binder, Andrew" <Andrew.Binder@CityofPaloAlto.org>, "Lee, David" <David.Lee@CityofPaloAlto.org>
Date December 9, 2024, 9:36:07 PM PST
CAUTION: This email originated from outside of the organization. Be cautious of opening attachments and
clicking on links.
Dear Pat,
I want to thank you for giving me the police chief's email so I could
write him to discuss the recent thefts in the Webster St. neighborhood.
After I contacted Chief Binder, he asked Police Officer David Lee to
respond to my email. Officer Lee talked with me about what our
neighborhood could do to help prevent future thefts. We scheduled a
Neighborhood Watch meeting, and Officer Lee graciously offered to come.
There was a big turnout for the meeting this evening, (over 20 neighbors
attended), and not only did Officer Lee come, but so did Officer Zac and
Officer Con. They discussed crime prevention and answered all of the
neighbors' questions. They were great representatives of the Police
Department and of the City of Palo Alto.
Our neighborhood is very appreciative of the police department's
response to the recent thefts, including being able to recover the
stolen Corvette.
Sincerely,
Annette Isaacson
From Annette Isaacson <>
Subject thank you
To , "city.council@cityofpaloalto.org" <city.council@cityofpaloalto.org>
Cc , "Lee, David" <>
Date December 9, 2024, 9:15:49 PM PST