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HomeMy WebLinkAbout2024-02-21 Finance Committee Summary MinutesFINANCE COMMITTEE SUMMARY MINUTES Page 1 of 9 Special Meeting February 21, 2024 The Finance Committee of the City of Palo Alto met on this date in the Community Meeting Room and by virtual teleconference at 5:30 P.M. Present In Person: Burt (Chair), Lauing, Veenker Present Remotely: None Absent: None CALL TO ORDER Chair Burt called the meeting of the City of Palo Alto Finance Committee to order at 5:30 P.M. PUBLIC COMMENT There were no requests to speak. ACTION ITEMS 1. Discussion and Update on the Fiscal Year 2025 Preliminary Utilities Financial Forecast and Rate Projections It was clarified that this was a preliminary discussion and the Committee would not be making a recommendation to the Council at this point. Dean Batchelor, Director of Utilities, explained that Utilities Staff was seeking input from the Finance Committee on the utility financial plans and rate changes effective July 1, 2024. The common theme in these plans was financial investments to strengthen reliability and financial resiliency throughout Utilities. The proposed rate adjustment recommendations and utility financial plans will come back to Council in April. Lisa Bilir, Senior Resource Planner, noted the proposed rates would allow Utilities to invest in the system, support the community's climate action and sustainability goals, and provide reliability for the residents and businesses in Palo Alto. These proposals include grid modernization funding, replacing infrastructure in the water distribution and wastewater collection systems, and paying toward rebuilding the wastewater treatment plant. The financial SUMMARY MINUTES Page 2 of 9 Finance Committee Meeting Summary Minutes: 2/21/2024 stability that will allow the City to manage the rate at which utility rates increase will also allow for fiscal responsibility when unexpected events occur. She also noted the rates were favorable in comparison to PG&E, with Palo Alto's residential median gas and median electric bills projected to be 10% and 50% below PG&E's rates, respectively. She presented a chart of the preliminary average rate projections, with the overall increase for FY 25 at about 8% to 9%. The City tried to maintain low rate increases during the pandemic and now faces the need to increase rates in order to bring reserves back up to within the guideline ranges. She reviewed the projected rate increases for the various utilities. Ms. Bilir then spoke about the Wastewater utility. The recommended rate increase was 15%. In 2023, the Council approved a series of 9% rate increases in order to begin a rate of main replacement of 5 miles every other year starting in 2026 and also approved moving forward with sewer main replacement 31. Together with that, costs came in higher and revenues lower than forecasts, leading to the Wastewater reserve being very low. This proposal attempts to control the cost by reducing the size of the sewer main replacement in 2026 and continuing with the pump station retrofit in 2028. The alternative to the recommendation is a 9% rate increase, with the main replacement and pump station retrofit deferred. In both proposals, the 5- mile main replacement schedule would resume in 2028. She presented a graph of the preliminary Wastewater cost and revenue projections, and there was discussion about this. She presented a graph of the Wastewater Operations Reserve projections. The reserve needs to be brought back within the guideline range, and Staff is looking at possible ways to include short- term financing if additional funds are needed during this time. There was discussion on whether it was possible to transfer reserves from one utility to another. It was clarified that there could be a formal transfer via a loan but the enterprise accounts were separate. It was noted that interest is charged on this type of loan, based on the market rate. Ms. Bilir continued with a graph of the Wastewater Collection CIP Reserve projections. Funding had been pulled from the CIP Reserve in 2023, and this is a plan to replenish that reserve within the 5-year period. Council Member Veenker described discussions by the UAC with concern about aging infrastructure and rebuilding the reserves. She asked if it would have to be a 15% rate increase to accomplish the UAC's goals. Ms. Bilir responded that it would have to be 15% to address the goals of the UAC. The UAC was originally presented with a 9% rate increase proposal, and members expressed concern about rebuilding the reserves and not SUMMARY MINUTES Page 3 of 9 Finance Committee Meeting Summary Minutes: 2/21/2024 wanting to defer the main replacement. This proposal restores the main replacement project in FY 26 and allows the pump station retrofit to go forward in FY 28. In the event the reserves are not restored as much as desired, the plan could be changed for capital investment in FY 26. Vice Mayor Lauing expressed concern about useful life of equipment and wanted to gauge the emergency level of the replacements as this proposal would push the replacement timeline beyond 100 years. Director Batchelor explained that industrial standards were used to predict the useful life. The intent of the plan is to keep the rate somewhat stable, stay within the 100-year line, and not invest too much because there are still pipes in good shape. James Allen, Water Quality Control Plan Manager, added that on average the industry standard is 100 years, but it also has to do with the conditions and not necessarily the pipe itself. There are conditions that lend themselves toward the pipe deteriorating. There is a balancing act between design and planning, trying not to go much beyond 100 years. Vice Mayor Lauing noted he was comfortable with the recommendation of 15%. Chair Burt felt the dollar amounts high in a year when there are other utilities with rate increases. He noted this as a lesson learned regarding no or very low increases during three COVID years now having a boomerang effect. He recalled that it was important to make sure there were not pipe leakages in areas that could get brine intrusion and asked if this was part of the evaluation. He asked if leaks are more intrusion or leakage outward. Mr. Allen responded that there is a master planning process of collecting base flows and wet weather flows to try to gauge the areas with more leaky pipes. That information will then inform the pipe replacement strategy. He explained that leaks can happen in both directions, but the plan was less concerned about hydraulic loading if it was leakage outward. Council Member Veenker asked how Wastewater rates compare with others. Ms. Bilir answered that the current monthly sewer service charge is 26% below the comparison city average used for the budget. There was further discussion of comparison of Wastewater rates. SUMMARY MINUTES Page 4 of 9 Finance Committee Meeting Summary Minutes: 2/21/2024 Chair Burt supported the 15% recommendation but also wanted to have a final look at the aggregate impact. Jonathan Abendschein, Assistant Director of Utilities, reviewed that the Electric utility was severely impacted by the drought from 2020 through the end of 2022. Last winter the skyrocketing natural gas prices also affected the power supply markets and costs. The hydro rate adjustor was implemented and nearly $50M of reserves used to absorb higher power supply costs, bringing reserves into the risk assessment level. The combination of winning a $24M judgment against the federal government and an improved hydro outlook from strong winter precipitation improved the Electric utility's financial outlook. The net effect of using those funds to help the reserve, removing the hydro electric rate adjustor, and increasing the base rate to 21% was a reduction of 5% in the electric rates, going into effect last July 1. Assistant Director Abendschein noted that last year, a 5% overall rate increase was expected for this year. Since that forecast was made, a cost- of-service study was done, with the goal of making sure each customer class is being charged a fair and equitable rate to recover the cost of serving that customer class. The study showed the need for some significant changes to the rates for different customer classes. Large residential users will see decreases in the rates with this proposal, and small residential users will see increases. Because of significant rate changes, Staff recommended holding revenue about the same as last year instead of raising to 5%. This will allow the changes without increasing rates more than 10% for any customer. The median residential customer is expected to see about an 8% ($6.20/month) increase. Some of the drivers of rate increases are rising supply costs, particularly related to transmission, and increases in capital expenditures and debt service related to grid modernization and other investments. He reviewed the Electric utility cost structure and the long-term cost trends, with supply and distribution costs increasing at 5% to 6% per year. He presented a graph of the FY 2025 preliminary electric cost and revenue projections. In FY 24 and 25, there are some imbalances in the capital investment, which has to do with the timing of some of the large capital projects. He showed graphs of the Electric Supply and Distribution Reserve projections, with this plan projecting both within the guideline range by FY 25. Vice Mayor Lauing asked about the assumptions of the bond financing with debt service, how much would be borrowed and for how many years. SUMMARY MINUTES Page 5 of 9 Finance Committee Meeting Summary Minutes: 2/21/2024 Assistant Director Abendschein explained the total amount estimated to be financed was a little over $300M with a standard 30-year issuance. The interest cost was a little under 5% based on current bond rates. Council Member Veenker asked for more detail on customer class and assistance programs for those who might have hardship. Assistant Director Abendschein explained that E1 residential covers single- family homes and separately metered apartments, which is most apartments. The common areas for apartments are covered by commercial rates as are all other commercial customers. The rate class that is being most significantly impacted by the rate changes is E1. There was further discussion about this, with clarification that the residential class is not recovering the revenue it needs to per the rate study. Making those adjustments disproportionately affects people who have a small kilowatt hour usage, which is often apartments. It was noted that this is a challenge in rate setting in a public utility because of the restrictions of Proposition 26. Rates must align with the cost to serve customers, and there is not an ability to offer incentive rates. He also noted that in the transition to time-of-use rates over the next few years with rates varying by time of day rather than tier, this will happen regardless. Chair Burt described the dilemma of having tiers designed to incentivize efficiency, with people often moving into a higher tier with electrification because they are consuming more electricity rather than gas. He asked if there are other mechanisms besides collapsing the tiers that can be used to recognize efficiency versus use based upon electrification. Assistant Director Abendschein explained that this was the best option but it will only be for a year or two. After transition to time-of-use rates, the tier impact will not affect people anymore. Chair Burt questioned hybrid billing as a potential consideration, to combine the amount and the time of electricity use and wanted to discuss this more going forward. He asked for an explanation of the category "Surplus Resource Adequacy." Assistant Director Abendschein described that hybrid systems are possible if you have the freedom to do incentive rates. Unless a different funding source was used that does not have the restrictions of Prop 26, Palo Alto could not provide that discount. He explained that the California Independent System Operator requires that there exists a certain amount of generation, called resource adequacy. It is possible to buy energy from a generator and/or to buy resource adequacy, which is the right to claim you SUMMARY MINUTES Page 6 of 9 Finance Committee Meeting Summary Minutes: 2/21/2024 will make it available to the system if the California Independent System Operator needs it that it is exists. The City has more resource adequacy rights than needed currently but it is not expected that will continue into the future. Chair Burt questioned where the internal staffing was and where it would get to. Director Batchelor responded that younger college students have been brought in to fill engineering positions. Linemen are up by five in the last two years, with a total of nine. Three individuals are in the fourth year of their apprenticeships, and two are expected to stay. The plan is to open up two more apprenticeships, and there are interviews next week for two more linemen. There are three compliance tech openings. Chair Burt noted that the high earnings for the linemen positions were often underappreciated and wanted to get the word out about that. He commented that the ramification of electrification is the need to increase supply. He wanted to be able to show that the amount would go up because of using more electricity but the cost per kilowatt hour of generation may actually go down on average and was very interested in that number. He noted that it was not clear that the term transmission was talking about the state grid and distribution was about local distribution. He questioned the jump in capital investment on slide 14 in 2024 with no capital investment in 2025. He understood that by upgrading to new transformers, it was increasing not just capacity but also reliability. Assistant Director Abendschein explained there was a large capital investment in FY 2024 related to grid modernization, finishing up some other types of capital investment, the Hanover Substation overhaul. In FY 2025 and going forward, a lot of those large investments are being funded by debt and showing up as debt service. He described the major goals for the grid modernization effort are to increase reliability by replacing aging infrastructure and by adding smart switching and other potential smart devices on the system and also by connecting parts of the system together in more places to route power and have fewer people affected by outages. Chair Burt discussed that in moving to an electrified system, customers perceive that reliability has deteriorated, and he felt the data supported that. He wanted to look at two goals toward reliability, first getting back to historical reliability and second determining what reliability is needed if customers are moving from gas and electric to completely relying on electric. He noted that a big part of the pushback to electrification is, "If I was all electric and we had a power outage, I would not have any heat or SUMMARY MINUTES Page 7 of 9 Finance Committee Meeting Summary Minutes: 2/21/2024 any cooking." He wanted to have more discussion on reliability goals and how much of that goal is anticipated to be achieved by getting through what is already put forward in grid modernization. Director Batchelor added that speed of restoration and elimination of large outages will be key. Ms. Bilir then turned discussion to the Gas utility. For Gas, there is a 9% overall increase for the median residential customer. Staff asked for feedback on the transfer of Gas utility revenue to the General Fund. The recommendation was to transfer 11.9%, which allows for a gradual transition to 18% by FY 27. The alternative was to transfer 18%, the cap amount under Measure L. She presented and discussed a chart showing the two different alternatives. The transfer of 18% would require a 15% overall rate increase as opposed to 9%. She also reviewed the Gas Operations Reserve, which is expected to reduce below the guideline range but not below the risk assessment level in 2024. This plan brings the Operations Reserve to within the guideline range and to the target level by the end of the five-year forecast period. Council Member Veenker asked if any tapering in usage was factored into these projections. Ms. Bilir explained that the long-term forecasts include about 0.5% per year of gas sales decline using the electrification scenario and based on the information available right now. Chair Burt was interested in a model of the rate impacts of decreasing gas, as he felt the smaller customer base would lead to a gradual increase in the cost to customers, possibly creating an incentive to electrify. Assistant Director Abendschein stated that was one of the work items in the 2023-2025 S/CAP Work Plan, the Gas Transition Study, which is meant to address both the financial and physical implications of potential declining gas loads. This is taken into account in modeling separate from the financial plan and will start to be incorporated as it becomes appropriate. Vice Mayor Lauing felt that incentive programs to get people to move quickly to electricity, particularly lower-income people, needed to be financed. He was interested in modeling to see how many people can be fixed with how many appliances they have to convert with the current incentive programs. He remembered concern last year about not transferring the fund too close to 18%. He felt 11.9% was quite cautious and prudent but also noted that SUMMARY MINUTES Page 8 of 9 Finance Committee Meeting Summary Minutes: 2/21/2024 compared to the 18%, there would be $5M less in the plan to do things for residents. Director Batchelor asked for feedback from the Committee on the amount of the transfer. It was decided to defer a decision until the item comes back to the Committee. Ms. Bilir then reviewed the Water Utility. Over the last few years, the Rate Stabilization Reserves have been used to mitigate the need to increase rates. This past year, $3M was used from that reserve, and this plan includes the use of $2M each year for the next 3 years. After that, the Rate Stabilization Reserves are no longer available to stabilize rate increases. There are several important infrastructure investments needed in the Water Utility, including the main replacement and also two reservoirs that need to be replaced or refurbished in 2027 and 2028. Customers have risen to the call for conservation, which is creating continued pressure on the water rate increases together with all the costs. The overall proposal is for a 13% increase on the water distribution rate combined with the SFPUC rate, which leads to about a 10% overall impact on the bill for Palo Alto customers. Water main replacement acceleration and One Water supply alternatives are not included in this plan. The Operations Reserve is projected to be close to the minimum guideline range, but this plan brings it up to the target level by the end of 2029. The CIP Reserve is within the guideline range and dips below on a one-time basis in 2028 when both a tank replacement and a main replacement occur at the same time. Ms. Bilir concluded that Staff proposes a set of rate increases that compare favorably with PG&E. These rates will invest in the City's utilities infrastructure and support the goals of the community, including the S/CAP goals and grid modernization. The proposals are intended to provide financial stability and reliability to enable responding with fiscal responsibility when unexpected events occur. There was some discussion about whether the parameters of the reserves needed to be reevaluated. Chair Burt felt the rationale for the reserve projections seemed sound. Council Member Veenker questioned the revenue line in the Preliminary Water Projections slide. She felt there were several different forces in play, such as economizing because of drought and also adding people to the community. She asked if these were all part of the analysis. Ms. Bilir explained that the financial forecast is based on a shorter time period over the last 10 years, assuming normal weather conditions and SUMMARY MINUTES Page 9 of 9 Finance Committee Meeting Summary Minutes: 2/21/2024 recovery from the drought. The Bay Area Water Supply and Conservation Agency also forecasts those different multivariant factors, but this forecast was meant to make a conservative assumption for rate-setting purposes. The revenue line takes into account not just the sales forecast but also the increases projected over that time period. She presented and explained a chart of the purchase forecast for 2025. Chair Burt noted for context that the chart did not include the long-term decline in water usage, which has been 40% over the previous 20 years even with population growth. In the Electric and Gas, the decline in industrial uses in the City were a big factor over previous decades. He felt Water would continue to show a steady decline. The new multifamily will not have much irrigation, which is a large percentage of consumption in residential versus other consumption. On a per capita basis, that will be a significant decline even beyond what has already been seen for decades. NO ACTION TAKEN ADJOURNMENT: The meeting was adjourned at 7:40 P.M.