HomeMy WebLinkAbout2020-10-19 City Council Agendas (7)
City of Palo Alto (ID # 11640)
City Council Staff Report
Report Type: Informational Report Meeting Date: 10/19/2020
City of Palo Alto Page 1
Summary Title: Sales Tax Digest Summary 2020 Q2 (Calendar)
Title: City of Palo Alto Sales Tax Digest Summary for the Second (Calendar)
Quarter of 2020 (April-June)
From: City Manager
Lead Department: Administrative Services
Information
The City received $6.1 million for the second quarter (April to June 2020) sales, which is $3 million (32.5
percent) lower than the same quarter in 2019. The percent change in cash receipts was -7.0% statewide,
-6.7% in Northern California and -7.2% in Southern California for the calendar quarter ending in second
quarter 2020. For fiscal year 2020 or four quarters, sales tax cash receipts for the City were -17.2% from
the prior fiscal year.
Due to COVID-19 the state offered small businesses a 90-day extension to pay their second quarter 2020
taxes, and some businesses had partial or no payment for the second quarter. Decreases related to the
state 90-day extension program therefore contributed to the 32.5% decrease for the quarter. As a result
of the extension program, some payments for second quarter economic activity will be paid in the third
quarter. The following files, compiled by the City’s sales tax consultant, MuniServices/Avenu, are
attached for this informational report for which no action is required.
Questions about the information provided for the first (calendar) quarter (Q1) Sales Tax Digest (CMR ID
# 11504) were brought to the attention of Staff. Below are the questions and responses to better assist
in the review of these reports and the data articulated within them.
1. Why do the numbers look off on the economic category analysis on page 1 for Q1 showing %
of total/% change for Q1 2020 v. the prior year quarter?
The data for Q1 shows greater variability than normal due to the state programs that allowed
late payment. This chart shows a benchmark year, which means that it shows a full year of Q2
2019 through Q1 2020 which is then compared to Q2 2018 through Q1 2019 (benchmark years
are rolling annual comparisons through the current quarter).
2. Why for each category on the economic category analysis on page 1, and particularly for
construction, is the decrease in Palo Alto is greater than the statewide decrease?
The decrease is different between the state and Palo Alto because the sales tax from businesses
in Palo Alto were more impacted than those statewide. The dramatic decline for construction is
because it is a very small sales tax producing category for Palo Alto (less than 1% of brick and
City of Palo Alto Page 2
mortar sales tax) and it is thus more subject to large variations because there are a smaller
number of businesses and thus, anomalies are more common.
3. Why is Palo Alto shown to have totals with a smaller decrease compared to statewide in the
economic category analysis on page 1?
Palo Alto had a smaller decrease than statewide because it had a large gain in the B2B category
(+24% for a category that is 26% of the overall sales tax) which offset some of the declines in
other categories and made it ultimately have a smaller decrease overall than statewide.
4. The economic category data on page 5 is presented in a different format with different
numbers. The report says these two tables on page 5 and 1 cover the same period and the
numbers are not consistent. Construction is down 77.6% from 2019 to 2020, but on p. 1 for the
same period, construction is down 44.6%. General retail on page 5, down 38.4% but on page 1
only down 17.6%.
Unlike the first chart which showed a ‘benchmark year’ through Q1 2020, this chart shows a
comparison of one quarter only - Q1 2020 to Q1 2019. Declines are more dramatic for the
quarter because it was the one with the primary decline versus the full year.
5. Page 1 notes the table excludes net pools and adjustments. Does page 5 use the same
method?
The chart on page 5 also excludes county pools and adjustments.
6. What do the net pools and adjustments include and what might be the significance?
The county pool is largely internet sales tax and other types of use tax which are not ‘brick and
mortar’ local businesses - the county pool revenue amounts are generated through a formula
based upon the city’s sales tax receipts for the quarter as a percentage of the counties total
sales tax receipts for all jurisdictions within the county. This is then applied to all of the outside
of jurisdiction tax received for the entire county. Adjustments are cash adjustments for things
like late payments, audit adjustments, etc.
Attachments:
• Attachment A: Avenu Q2 Sales Tax Digest Summary
• Attachment B: Economic Categories and Segments
• Attachment C: COVID Update
City of Palo Alto
Sales Tax Digest Summary
Collections through September 2020
Sales through June 2020 (2020Q2)
www.avenuinsights.com (800) 800-8181 Page 1
% of Total / % Change PALO ALTO
California
Statewide S.F. Bay Area Sacramento
Valley Central Valley South Coast Inland Empire North Coast Central Coast
General Retail 28.6 / -17.7 29.7 / -7.8 29.7 / -4.9 30.2 / -0.1 30.7 / -2.4 28.9 / -12.5 31.3 / -2.6 32.5 / -2.2 27.5 / -15.8
Food Products 16.0 / -18.1 24.4 / -13.3 25.9 / -16 20.1 / -7.5 18.8 / -5.0 26.4 / -15.0 20.4 / -7.2 19.0 / -3.3 35.6 / -14.3
Transportation 20.0 / -29.6 28.1 / -11.5 25.7 / -17.8 33 / -6.2 28.2 / -6.9 27.7 / -11.8 31 / -7.1 30.4 / -0.3 25.3 / -9.6
Business to Business 33.4 / 11.8 9.4 / -7.2 9.8 / -11.1 7.5 / -10.4 12.5 / 25.0 9.1 / -11.4 8.5 / -5.1 4.9 / -14.2 4.0 / -1.8
Misc/Other 2.0 / -40.2 8.5 / -8.0 8.9 / -9.2 9.1 / -5.9 9.8 / -3.8 7.8 / -10.7 8.7 / -1.2 13.2 / 2.1 7.6 / -7.2
Total 100.0 / -13.7 100.0 / -10.2 100.0 / -12.4 100.0 / -5.0 100.0 / -1.7 100.0 / -12.8 100.0 / -5.1 100.0 / -2.0 100.0 / -12.6
City of Palo
Alto
California
Statewide S.F. Bay Area Sacramento
Valley Central Valley South Coast Inland Empire North Coast Central Coast
Largest Segment Auto Sales -
New Restaurants Restaurants Auto Sales -
New
Department
Stores Restaurants Restaurants Department
Stores Restaurants
% of Total / % Change 16.6 / -32.0 18.0 / -16.8 19.0 / -20.5 14.9 / -5.0 14.7 / 1.5 20.1 / -17.8 14.0 / -10.3 14.3 / -0.1 25.5 / -18.3
2nd Largest Segment Restaurants Auto Sales -
New Auto Sales - New Department
Stores Restaurants Auto Sales -
New
Auto Sales -
New
Auto Sales -
New
Auto Sales -
New
% of Total / % Change 14.0 / -19.0 13.7 / -10.1 14.1 / -19.0 14.3 / 11.9 12.8 / -7.8 13.9 / -9.1 12.7 / -3.4 14.1 / 7.8 14.0 / -2.9
3rd Largest Segment Leasing Department
Stores
Miscellaneous
Retail Restaurants Auto Sales -
New
Department
Stores
Department
Stores Restaurants Miscellaneous
Retail
% of Total / % Change 13.5 / 48.3 10.8 / -2.2 10.5 / 17.4 14.0 / -10.9 12.4 / -3.3 10.1 / -5.5 12.5 / 4.1 11.1 / -9.9 9.8 / -18.7
*** Not specified to maintain confidentiality of tax information
CITY OF PALO ALTO
BENCHMARK YEAR 2020Q2 COMPARED TO BENCHMARK YEAR 2019Q2
ECONOMIC CATEGORY ANALYSIS FOR YEAR ENDED 2nd Quarter 2020
ECONOMIC SEGMENT ANALYSIS FOR YEAR ENDED 2nd Quarter 2020
California Overview
The percent change in cash receipts was -7.0% statewide, -6.7% in Northern California and -7.2% in
Southern California for the quarter ending in 2nd Quarter 2020. The period’s, cash receipts include tax
from business activity during the period, payments for prior periods and other cash adjustments. When
we adjust for non-period related payments, we determine the overall business activity decreased for by
-10.2% statewide, -11.1% in Southern California and -8.8% in Northern California for the year ending in
2nd Quarter 2020.
City of Palo Alto
For the year ended 2nd Quarter 2020, sales tax cash receipts for the City were -17.2% from the prior
year. On a quarterly basis, sales tax revenues were -32.5% from 2nd Quarter 2019 to 2nd Quarter 2020.
The period’s cash receipts include tax from business activity during the period, payments for prior
periods and other cash adjustments. Note: It is important to recognize that the state offered small
businesses a 90 day extension to pay their 2nd Quarter 2020 taxes (to alleviate some of the short-term
economic difficulties of the pandemic), and some businesses had partial or no payment for the 2nd
Quarter. Thus, the 32.5% decrease for the quarter includes decreases related to the state 90-day
extension program and actual 2nd Quarter economic activity did not decline to this extent. As a result of
the extension program, some payments for 2nd quarter economic activity will be paid in the 3rd
Quarter.
Regional Overview
This chart shows a benchmark year which means that it shows a full year of calendar third quarter (Q3)
2019 through Q2 2020 which is then compared to Q3 2018 through Q2 2019 (benchmark years are
rolling annual comparisons through the current quarter).
Attachment A
City of Palo Alto
www.avenuinsights.com (800)800-8181 Page 2
$-
$5,000,000
$10,000,000
$15,000,000
$20,000,000
$25,000,000
$30,000,000
$35,000,000
Quarterly Benchmark Year
Regional Overview (Cont.)
The decrease is different between the state and Palo Alto because the sales tax from businesses in Palo
Alto were more impacted than those statewide. The dramatic decline for construction is because it is a
very small sales tax producing category for Palo Alto (less than 1% of brick and mortar sales tax) and it is
thus more subject to large variations because there are a smaller number of businesses and thus,
anomalies are more common. This chart and the ones on pages five and six also exclude county pools
and adjustments. The county pool is largely internet sales tax and other types of use tax which are not
‘brick and mortar’ local businesses – the county pool revenue amounts are generated through a formula
based upon the city’s sales tax receipts for the quarter as a percentage of the counties total sales
tax receipts for all jurisdictions within the county. This is then applied to all the outside of
jurisdiction tax received for the entire county. Adjustments are cash adjustments for things like late
payments, audit adjustments, etc.
Gross Historical Sales Tax Performance by Benchmark Year and Quarter (Before Adjustments)
Attachment A
City of Palo Alto
www.avenuinsights.com (800)800-8181 Page 3
Anderson Honda Lucile Packard Children's Hospital Space Systems Loral
Apple Stores Macy's Department Store Stanford Pharmacy
Audi Palo Alto Magnussen's Toyota Tesla
Bon Appetit Management Co.Neiman Marcus Tesla Lease & Trust
Hermes Nordstrom Department Store Tiffany & Company
Houzz Shop Richemont Urban Outfitters
HP Enterprise Services Shell Service Stations Varian Medical Systems
Integrated Archive Systems Shreve & Co.Volvo Cars Palo Alto
Louis Vuitton
Auto Sales -New
16.6%
Restaurants
14.0%
Leasing
13.5%
Office Equipment
12.1%
Furniture/Appliance
5.7%
Department Stores
5.0%
All Other
33.1%
Net Pools & Adjustments
19.8%
Net Cash Receipts for Benchmark Year 2nd Quarter 2020: $29,922,852
*Benchmark year (BMY) is the sum of the current and 3 previous quarters (2020Q2 BMY is sum of 2020 Q2, 2020 Q1, 2019 Q4, 2019 Q3)
TOP 25 SALES/USE TAX CONTRIBUTORS
The following list identifies Palo Alto’s Top 25 Sales/Use Tax contributors. The list is in alphabetical order
and represents the year ended 2nd Quarter 2020. The Top 25 Sales/Use Tax contributors generate
59.0% of Palo Alto’s total sales and use tax revenue.
Attachment A
City of Palo Alto
www.avenuinsights.com (800) 800-8181 Page 4
$-
$1,000,000
$2,000,000
$3,000,000
$4,000,000
$5,000,000
$6,000,000
$7,000,000
Benchmark Year 2020Q2 Benchmark Year 2019Q2
Sales Tax from Largest Non-Confidential Economic Segments
Attachment A
City of Palo Alto
www.avenuinsights.com (800)800-8181 Page 5
Cash Category % 2020Q2 2020Q1 2019Q4 2019Q3 2019Q2 2019Q1 2018Q4 2018Q3 2018Q2 2018Q1 2017Q4
General Retail 12.5% 765,625 1,211,917 2,636,327 2,388,272 2,079,939 2,207,765 2,549,003 2,055,636 2,294,429 1,549,793 2,488,141
Business To Business 31.7% 1,939,756 1,988,886 2,413,918 2,022,822 2,038,296 1,514,570 1,894,103 2,323,706 2,137,030 1,636,738 1,066,079
Misc/Other 1.8% 113,011 -118,743 46,154 31,625 354,786 150,963 455,247 166,341 169,316 345,559 367,958
Food Products 10.8% 664,311 664,464 1,237,071 1,219,147 1,317,890 1,186,110 1,297,632 1,233,668 1,166,362 1,107,654 1,214,749
Transportation 16.4% 1,001,301 954,378 1,654,426 1,367,877 1,597,928 1,265,452 2,217,713 2,071,973 1,185,150 1,177,650 1,436,115
Net Pools & Adjustments 26.8% 1,640,141 223,252 2,004,397 1,619,094 1,688,276 1,208,826 1,820,850 2,139,510 1,191,568 -183,952 1,136,075
Total 100.0% 6,124,145 4,924,153 9,992,293 8,648,838 9,077,115 7,533,685 10,234,548 9,990,833 8,143,857 5,633,442 7,709,117
Cash Segments % 2020Q2 2020Q1 2019Q4 2019Q3 2019Q2 2019Q1 2018Q4 2018Q3 2018Q2 2018Q1 2017Q4
Miscellaneous/Other 40.3% 2,467,685 2,259,531 3,433,074 3,185,862 3,002,014 2,281,435 3,001,222 3,159,559 2,820,373 2,568,829 2,124,317
Auto Sales - New 14.2% 869,982 777,399 1,389,232 1,109,111 1,349,991 1,035,150 1,947,788 1,764,288 1,013,460 953,775 1,212,077
Restaurants 9.5% 584,564 550,809 1,097,076 1,095,771 1,182,947 1,055,921 1,131,697 1,102,007 1,035,097 990,471 1,056,032
Apparel Stores 1.6% 98,794 245,922 571,143 434,481 488,810 443,141 683,545 437,258 444,520 360,406 541,149
Department Stores 0.5% 29,842 245,948 555,533 430,761 453,660 419,109 599,797 476,002 756,447 143,999 670,125
Miscellaneous Retail 3.7% 229,455 249,633 491,098 408,770 466,626 586,221 522,717 431,560 424,927 427,200 517,004
Business Services 1.0% 60,529 151,872 164,431 90,629 168,221 245,197 211,243 159,075 208,381 127,465 172,791
Service Stations 1.4% 83,088 123,284 178,061 179,237 173,369 161,746 194,561 227,544 130,836 153,096 153,054
Food Markets 1.0% 60,064 96,504 108,248 95,122 103,203 96,939 121,128 94,032 118,248 92,152 126,494
Net Pools & Adjustments 26.8% 1,640,141 223,252 2,004,397 1,619,094 1,876,055 1,214,253 1,820,850 2,139,510 1,191,568 -183,952 1,136,075
Total 100.0% 6,124,145 4,924,153 9,992,293 8,648,838 9,264,895 7,539,112 10,234,548 9,990,833 8,143,857 5,633,442 7,709,117
Historical Analysis by Calendar Quarter
*Net Pools & Adjustments reconcile economic performance to periods’ net cash receipts. The historical amounts by calendar quarter: (1) include
any prior period adjustments and payments in the appropriate category/segment and (2) exclude businesses no longer active in the current
period.
Attachment A
City of Palo Alto
www.avenuinsights.com (800)800-8181 Page 6
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Campbell -48.3% -44.1% -51.4% -39.8% -11.2%1,550,841 2,601,542 -40.4% Liquor Stores Biotechnology Restaurants Service Stations
Cupertino -48.4% -46.0% -68.8% 79.5% -52.9%8,997,686 6,047,925 48.8% Office Equipment Recreation Products Restaurants I.T. Infrastructure
Gilroy -44.6% -21.3% -40.6% -23.1% 15.8%2,742,769 4,106,423 -33.2% Miscellaneous Other Misc. Vehicle Sales Auto Sales - New Apparel Stores
Los Altos -39.7% -29.2% -60.8% 1.7% -49.7%421,123 641,247 -34.3% Business Services Green Energy Restaurants Service Stations
Los Gatos -52.0% -28.7% -35.1% -43.8% 1.4%1,086,250 1,641,740 -33.8% Recreation Products Bldg.Matls-Retail Restaurants Miscellaneous Retail
Milpitas -66.4% -42.9% -41.1% -4.5% -31.4%3,819,901 5,846,021 -34.7% Electronic Equipment Office Equipment Apparel Stores Restaurants
Morgan Hill -19.4% -29.2% -33.0% 43.5% -6.5%1,754,326 2,151,904 -18.5% Heavy Industry Energy Sales Service Stations Restaurants
Mountain View -64.2% -23.4% -49.9% -50.0% -30.3%3,042,403 5,762,234 -47.2% Heavy Industry Liquor Stores Miscellaneous Retail Business Services
Palo Alto -61.0% -49.3% -46.8% -1.2% -44.3%4,348,437 6,988,130 -37.8% Leasing Drug Stores Auto Sales - New Restaurants
San Jose -44.4% -30.4% -39.2% -17.9% -15.9%28,685,660 41,742,882 -31.3% I.T. Infrastructure Liquor Stores Restaurants Service Stations
Santa Clara -46.5% -47.0% -41.5% -8.2% -22.9%8,983,006 12,032,946 -25.3% Office Equipment Biotechnology Restaurants Auto Sales - New
County of Santa Clara -58.0% -32.0% -10.7% 2.6% -42.5%785,135 1,177,389 -33.3% Leasing Misc. Vehicle Sales Miscellaneous Retail Health & Government
Saratoga -40.4% -30.4% -34.0% -47.1% 26.3%164,500 239,356 -31.3% Bldg.Matls-Retail Food Markets Restaurants Miscellaneous Retail
Sunnyvale -37.7% -31.2% -46.8% -7.6% -23.6%4,298,655 6,017,436 -28.6% Light Industry Electronic Equipment Auto Sales - New Restaurants
Quarterly Analysis by Economic Category, Total and Segments: Change from 2019Q2 to 2020Q2
Unlike the chart on page 1 which showed a ‘benchmark year’ through Q2 2020, the chart above shows a comparison of one quarter only –
Q2 2020 to Q2 2019. Declines are more dramatic for the quarter because it was the one with the primary decline versus the full year. Again,
this chart also excludes county pools and adjustments.
Attachment A
Economic Categories and Segments
Economic Category Economic Segment Description
Business to Business ‐ sales of
tangible personal property from
one business to another business
and the buyer is the end user.
Also includes use tax on certain
purchases and consumables.
Business Services Advertising, banking services,
copying, printing and mailing
services
Chemical Products Manufacturers and wholesalers
of drugs, chemicals, etc.
Electronic Equipment Manufacturers of televisions,
sound systems, sophisticated
electronics, etc.
Energy Sales Bulk fuel sales and fuel
distributors and refiners
Heavy Industry Heavy machinery and
equipment, including heavy
vehicles, and manufacturers and
wholesalers of textiles and
furniture and furnishings
Leasing Equipment leasing
Light Industry Includes, but is not limited to,
light machinery and automobile,
truck, and trailer rentals
Office Equipment Businesses that sell computers,
and office equipment and
furniture, and businesses that
process motion pictures and film
development
Construction Building Materials – Retail Building materials, hardware,
and paint and wallpaper stores
Building Materials ‐ Wholesale Includes, but is not limited to,
sheet metal, iron works, sand
and gravel, farm equipment,
plumbing materials, and
electrical wiring
Food Products Food Markets Supermarkets, grocery stores,
convenience stores, bakeries,
delicatessens, health food stores
Food Processing Equipment Processing and equipment used
in mass food production and
packaging
Liquor stores Stores that sell alcoholic
beverages
Restaurants Restaurants, including fast food
and those in hotels, and night
clubs
Attachment B
Economic Categories and Segments
Economic Category Economic Segment Description
General Retail – all consumer
focused sales, typically brick and
mortar stores
Apparel Stores Men’s, women’s, and family
clothing and shoe stores
Department Stores Department, general, and variety
stores
Drug Stores Stores where medicines and
miscellaneous articles are sold
Florist/Nursery Stores where flowers and plants
are sold
Furniture/Appliance Stores where new and used
furniture, appliances, and
electronic equipment are sold
Miscellaneous Retail Includes, but is not limited to,
stores that sell cigars, jewelry,
beauty supplies, cell phones, and
books; newsstands, photography
studios; personal service
businesses such as salons and
cleaners; and vending machines
Recreation Products Camera, music, and sporting
goods stores
Miscellaneous/Other Miscellaneous/Other Includes but not limited to
health services, government,
nonprofit organizations, non‐
store retailers, businesses with
less than $20,000 in annual gross
sales, auctioneer sales, and
mortuary services and sales
Transportation Auto Parts/Repair Auto parts stores, vehicle and
parts manufacturing facilities,
and vehicle repair shops
Auto Sales ‐ New New car dealerships
Auto Sales ‐ Used Used car dealerships
Miscellaneous Vehicle Sales Sale and manufacture of
airplanes and supplies, boats,
motorcycles, all‐terrain vehicles,
trailers and supplies
Service stations Gas stations, not including
airport jet fuel
Attachment B
1264 Hawks Flight Court #270, El Dorado Hills CA 95762 | 559-288-7296 | www.avenuinsights.com
Client Update #3: Early August 2020
General Outlook
First and Second Quarter GDP: As discussed in our previous COVID Update (#2, Late July), unemployment
and consumer confidence remain significant factors affecting revenue flow to California cities, particularly
sales tax. Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 32.9 percent in the second quarter
of 2020 according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This is the biggest
drop in history.
The decrease in real GDP reflected decreases in personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, private
inventory investment, nonresidential fixed investment, residential fixed investment, and state and local
government spending. These decreases were partly offset by an increase in federal government spending.
Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.
The decrease in PCE reflected decreases in services (led by health care) and goods (led by clothing and
footwear). The decrease in exports primarily reflected a decrease in goods (led by capital goods). The decrease
in private inventory investment primarily reflected a decrease in retail (led by motor vehicle dealers which is
included with retail in these statistics). The decrease in nonresidential fixed investment primarily reflected a
decrease in equipment (led by transportation equipment), while the decrease in residential investment
primarily reflected a decrease in new single-family housing starts.
California COVID-19 Update
Attachment C
1264 Hawks Flight Court #270, El Dorado Hills CA 95762 | 559-288-7296 | www.avenuinsights.com
There was a substantial increase in other major indicators for the second quarter. Second quarter indicators
include:
• Current-dollar personal income increased $1.39 trillion in the second quarter, compared with an
increase of $193.4 billion in the first quarter. The increase in personal income was more than
accounted for by an increase in personal current transfer receipts (notably, government social
benefits) that was partly offset by declines in compensation and proprietors' income.
• Disposable personal income increased 42.1 percent, in the second quarter, compared with an increase
of 3.9 percent, in the first quarter.
• Real disposable personal income increased 44.9 percent, compared with an increase of 2.6 percent in
the first quarter.
• Personal saving was $4.69 trillion in the second quarter, compared with $1.59 trillion in the first
quarter. The “personal saving rate”—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—
was 25.7 percent in the second quarter, compared with 9.5 percent in the first quarter.
Unemployment: California’s unemployment rate improved to 14.9 percent in June as the state’s employers
added a record 558,200 jobs, according to data released by the California Employment Development
Department (EDD) from two surveys. This comes after the previous record gain of 134,200 jobs in May and
record losses in the months preceding that. In May and June, California regained more than a quarter (26.4
percent) of the 2,625,500 nonfarm jobs lost during March and April as a direct result of the COVID-19
pandemic.
As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, California has experienced an unprecedented rise in unemployment
since the beginning of March. Through March and April, the key measure that captured the impact of the virus
on the state’s workers was the number of new unemployment claims being filed each week. Going forward,
this number will still be important as a gauge of whether a second wave of business closures and layoffs is
emerging. Equally important to track going forward, however, will be the level of continued claims—the total
number of people receiving unemployment benefits in each week.
Number of New Weekly Claims
Remains High. California processed
249,007 claims for regular
unemployment insurance between
July 19 and July 25. The number of
claims processed in the past week
remains high but fell slightly from
levels seen during the past six weeks.
During that time, weekly claims held
steady around 280,000. Weekly claims
since mid-March have remained well
above the record high prior to the
COVID-19 outbreak of 115,462 in
January 2010.
Attachment C
1264 Hawks Flight Court #270, El Dorado Hills CA 95762 | 559-288-7296 | www.avenuinsights.com
Continued Claims Hold Steady Near Their COVID-19 Peak. As of July 25, California had about 3.4 million
employees receiving traditional unemployment benefits. For the past several weeks, continued traditional
unemployment claims have remained steady near their peak COVID-19 level.
Self-Employment Claims Jump by
More Than 100,000. Between July
19 and July 25, California had 1.1
million self-employed workers
receiving unemployment benefits
under Pandemic Unemployment
Assistance—a new program
created to expand eligibility for
unemployment insurance to self-
employed workers. The number
of self-employed workers
receiving benefits jumped by
more than 100,000 from the prior
week. While the number of
traditional unemployment claims
has remained steady over the
past month or so, the number of self-employed workers receiving these federally funded benefits has
increased by more than 50 percent. (The graph shows both traditional and self-employment claims. The most
accurate comparison is between the Great Recession and COVID-19 traditional claims, as self-employed
unemployment benefits were not available during the Great Recession.)
Bottom line? Unemployment is not getting much better and may increase in the coming months as businesses
struggle to remain viable during the pandemic. Taking all factors together, it appears that the brief uptick in
consumer confidence was short lived although online sales should remain strong. An economic recovery
remains tenuous and will depend on further federal stimulus, vaccine development, and overall infection and
hospitalization rates. “California’s economy remains severely depressed,” the Legislative Analyst’s Office
wrote in an economic update last week. “The state has a long way to go to return to its pre-pandemic
economy. On top of that, the recovery appears to be extremely fragile and could reverse quickly with the
recent increase in COVID-19 cases.”
Consumer Confidence
The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey®, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for
The Conference Board by Nielsen, a leading global provider of information and analytics around what
consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was July 17.
“Consumer Confidence declined in July following a large gain in June,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of
Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “The Present Situation Index improved, but the Expectations
Index retreated. Large declines were experienced in Michigan, Florida, Texas and California, no doubt a result
of the resurgence of COVID-19. Looking ahead, consumers have grown less optimistic about the short-term
outlook for the economy and labor market and remain subdued about their financial prospects. Such
uncertainty about the short-term future does not bode well for the recovery, nor for consumer spending.”
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Consumers were less optimistic about the short-term outlook. The percentage of consumers expecting
business conditions will improve over the next six months declined from 42.4 percent to 31.6 percent, while
those expecting business conditions will worsen increased from 15.2 percent to 19.3 percent. Consumers’
outlook for the labor market was also less favorable. The proportion expecting more jobs in the months ahead
declined from 38.4 percent to 30.6 percent, while those anticipating fewer jobs in the months ahead increased
from 14.4 percent to 20.3 percent. Regarding their short-term income prospects, the percentage of consumers
expecting an increase was relatively unchanged at 15.1 percent, while the proportion expecting a decrease
rose from 14.1 percent to 15.0 percent.
Specific Taxes
Sales Tax
While California may set itself apart with technology related businesses, its recession experience mirrors the
country’s in one key area: sales tax receipts. The economic crisis — driven by rising COVID-19 cases, stay-at-
home orders and business closures, has resulted in a 21% nationwide decline in sales tax revenues in May as
compared to 2019 (according to the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center). In California, that number is 20.1%
(according to CA Department of Finance data).
Still, that’s an improvement on May predictions, which forecast a 28.8% decline. One major factor is Internet
sales: A jump in online purchases likely mitigated some of the state’s overall decline in sales tax revenues. In
the first quarter of 2020, tax from online sales increased by nearly 36% compared to 2019, according to the
California Department of Tax and Fee Administration. The surge followed a recently enacted state law, the
Marketplace Facilitator Act, requiring online retailers like Amazon to collect California sales tax on behalf of
smaller companies that sell products on their platforms. Amazon in 2018, reported to the SEC that 58 percent
of sales on the website were by made so-called third-party retailers. Previously, some of those so-called third-
party retailers did not collect tax on sales to California residents. Those sales now are taxed.
Data from the tax department also shows increased spending at grocery stores, home improvement stores
and big box retailers, reflecting Californians’ spending priorities at the beginning of the outbreak. Whether
sales and personal income tax trends continue may depend on whether the 4 million Californians currently on
unemployment keep receiving increased benefits, officials say. The federal government has doled out
an additional $600 a week since late March, but those checks stopped coming on July 25. It’s unclear when —
or if — a portion of that payment will return.
Other Economic/Financial News
Assembly & Senate Working Groups Unveil Joint $100 Billion Economic Stimulus Plan
Key working groups from both houses of the California State Legislature have developed a joint $100 billion
stimulus plan. Lawmakers aim to protect Californians and spur job creation during and even after the COVID-
19 crisis. “Early on in the pandemic, the Senate created a Working Group on Economic Recovery to offer ideas
for California’s economic recovery without raising taxes, while also focusing on the needs of all Californians –
including small businesses and working families – millions of whom have been adversely impacted by this
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crisis. We must do all we can to help heal our economy, while ensuring that our solutions do not create
further harm.” – Senate President pro Tempore Toni G. Atkins (D–San Diego)
The stimulus plan aims to raise $100 billion through a new tax voucher program and the acceleration of other
existing revenue streams. The money would be used to boost the economy and protect jobs, small businesses,
and working families. The working groups will also seek input from the Newsom Administration, including the
Governor’s Task Force on Business and Jobs Recovery, and from the public. Both houses will work together to
approve measures by the August 31, 2020, legislative deadline and identify priorities for the next session.
An outline of the plan is available here. The complete list of Assembly and Senate working group members
includes: Senators Jim Beall, Anna Caballero, Maria Elena Durazo, Cathleen Galgiani, Holly Mitchell, Anthony
Portantino, Nancy Skinner, and Bob Wieckowski; Assemblymembers Tasha Boerner Horvath, David Chiu,
Eduardo Garcia, Adam Gray, Tim Grayson, Jacqui Irwin, Sydney Kamlager, Monique Limon, Kevin McCarty,
Kevin Mullin, Al Muratsuchi, Cottie Petrie-Norris, Rudy Salas and Buffy Wicks.
Third and Fourth Quarter Outlook:
Any signs of economic recovery remain fragile – there are increasing concerns about a second round of
business closures which would result in a rise in unemployment. The Federal government’s inability to finalize
a stimulus package prior to the expiration of enhanced unemployment benefits adds additional uncertainty to
the economy. Housing also remains a concern - a recent U.S. Census Bureau survey showed that due to the
elimination of enhanced jobless benefits, 24 million Americans say they will have difficulty paying next
month’s rent. California is likely to see an increase in home foreclosures, an increase in precarious rental
housing, and ultimately, a rise in homelessness.
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