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HomeMy WebLinkAbout2022-12-07 Utilities Advisory Commission Agenda PacketMATERIALS RELATED TO AN ITEM ON THIS AGENDA SUBMITTED TO THE COMMISSION AFTER DISTRIBUTION OF THE AGENDA PACKET ARE AVAILABLE FOR PUBLIC INSPECTION IN THE UTILITIES DEPARTMENT AT PALO ALTO CITY HALL, 250 HAMILTON AVE. DURING NORMAL BUSINESS HOURS. AMERICANS WITH DISABILITY ACT (ADA) Persons with disabilities who require auxiliary aids or services in using City facilities, services or programs or who would like information on the City’s compliance with the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) of 1990, may contact (650) 329-2550 (Voice) 24 hours in advance. UTILITIES ADVISORY COMMISSION – REGULAR MEETING DECEMBER 7, 2022 – 6:00 PM City Council Chambers / ZOOM Webinar NOTICE IS POSTED IN ACCORDANCE WITH GOVERNMENT CODE SECTION 54954.2(a) OR 54956 Supporting materials are available online at https://www.cityofpaloalto.org/gov/boards/uac/default.asp on Thursday, 5 days preceding the meeting. Join Zoom Webinar Here Meeting ID: 966 9129 7246 Phone: 1 (669) 900-6833 Pursuant to AB 361 Utilities Advisory Commission meetings will be held as “hybrid” meetings with the option to attend by teleconference or in person. To maximize public safety while still maintaining transparency and public access, members of the public can choose to participate from home or attend in person. Members of the public who wish to participate by computer or phone can find the instructions at the end of this agenda. Masks are strongly encouraged if attending in person. The meeting will be broadcast on Cable TV Channel 26, live on Midpen Media Center at https://midpenmedia.org, and live on YouTube at https://www.youtube.com/c/cityofpaloalto. Members of the public who wish to participate by computer or phone can find the instructions at the end of this agenda. I. ROLL CALL 6:00 pm – 6:05 pm II. AGENDA REVIEW AND REVISIONS 6:05 pm – 6:10 pm III. ORAL COMMUNICATIONS 6:10 pm – 6:25 pm Members of the public are invited to address the Commission on any subject not on the agenda. A reasonable time restriction may be imposed at the discretion of the Chair. State law generally precludes the UAC from discussing or acting upon any topic initially presented during oral communication. IV. APPROVAL OF THE MINUTES 6:25 pm – 6:35 pm Approval of the Minutes of the Utilities Advisory Commission Meeting Held on October 12, 2022 Approval of the Minutes of the Utilities Advisory Commission Meeting Held on November 2, 2022 V. UNFINISHED BUSINESS None Chairman: Lauren Segal Vice Chair: AC Johnston Commissioners: John Bowie, Lisa Forssell, Phil Metz, Greg Scharff, and Loren Smith Council Liaison: Alison Cormack MATERIALS RELATED TO AN ITEM ON THIS AGENDA SUBMITTED TO THE COMMISSION AFTER DISTRIBUTION OF THE AGENDA PACKET ARE AVAILABLE FOR PUBLIC INSPECTION IN THE UTILITIES DEPARTMENT AT PALO ALTO CITY HALL, 250 HAMILTON AVE. DURING NORMAL BUSINESS HOURS. AMERICANS WITH DISABILITY ACT (ADA) Persons with disabilities who require auxiliary aids or services in using City facilities, services or programs or who would like information on the City’s compliance with the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) of 1990, may contact (650) 329-2550 (Voice) 24 hours in advance. VI. UTILITIES DIRECTOR REPORT 6:35 pm – 6:50 pm VII. NEW BUSINESS 1.Adoption of a Resolution Authorizing Use of Teleconferencing for Utilities Advisory Commission Meetings During Covid-19 State of Emergency (ACTION 6:50 pm – 6:55 pm) 2.Discussion of Costs and Reliability of Different Back-up Electricity Technologies (DISCUSSION 6:55 PM – 7:40 PM) Staff: Lena Perkins, PhD 3.Presentation and Update on the City's Electric Grid Modernization Analysis (DISCUSSION 7:40 PM – 8:25 PM) Staff: Tomm Marshall 4.Discussion of City of Palo Alto Utilities' Long-Term Electric Load Forecast Through 2045 (DISCUSSION 8:25 PM – 8:55 PM) Staff: Lena Perkins, PhD VIII. COMMISSIONER COMMENTS and REPORTS from MEETINGS/EVENTS INFORMATIONAL REPORTS Informational Update on Electric Supply Portfolio Optimization and Rebalancing Initiatives Staff: James Stack, PhD IX. FUTURE TOPICS FOR UPCOMING MEETING: January 4, 2023 SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION - The materials below are provided for informational purposes, not for action or discussion during UAC Meetings (Govt. Code Section 54954.2(a)(3)). 12-Month Rolling Calendar Public Letter(s) to the UAC MATERIALS RELATED TO AN ITEM ON THIS AGENDA SUBMITTED TO THE COMMISSION AFTER DISTRIBUTION OF THE AGENDA PACKET ARE AVAILABLE FOR PUBLIC INSPECTION IN THE UTILITIES DEPARTMENT AT PALO ALTO CITY HALL, 250 HAMILTON AVE. DURING NORMAL BUSINESS HOURS. AMERICANS WITH DISABILITY ACT (ADA) Persons with disabilities who require auxiliary aids or services in using City facilities, services or programs or who would like information on the City’s compliance with the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) of 1990, may contact (650) 329-2550 (Voice) 24 hours in advance. PUBLIC COMMENT INSTRUCTIONS Members of the Public may provide public comments to teleconference meetings via email, teleconference, or by phone. 1.Written public comments may be submitted by email to UACPublicMeetings@CityofPaloAlto.org. 2.Spoken public comments using a computer will be accepted through the teleconference meeting. To address the Commission, click on the link below for the appropriate meeting to access a Zoom-based meeting. Please read the following instructions carefully. •You may download the Zoom client or connect to the meeting in-browser. If using your browser, make sure you are using a current, up -to-date browser: Chrome 30+, Firefox 27+, Microsoft Edge 12+, Safari 7+. Certain functionality may be disabled in older browsers including Internet Explorer. •You will be asked to enter an email address and name. We request that you identify yourself by name as this will be visible online and will be used to notify you that it is your turn to speak. •When you wish to speak on an agenda item, click on “raise hand.” The Attendant will activate and unmute speakers in turn. Speakers will be notified shortly before they are called to speak. •When called, please limit your remarks to the time limit allotted. •A timer will be shown on the computer to help keep track of your comments. 3.Spoken public comments using a smart phone use the telephone number listed below. When you wish to speak on an agenda item hit *9 on your phone so we know that you wish to speak. You will be asked to provide your first and last name before addressing the Council. You will be advised how long you have to speak. When called please limit your remarks to the agenda item and time limit allotted. Join Zoom Webinar Here Meeting ID: 966-9129-7246 City of Palo Alto (ID # 14982) Utilities Advisory Commission Staff Report Meeting Date: 12/7/2022 Report Type: IV. APPROVAL OF THE MINUTES City of Palo Alto Page 1 Title: Approval of the Minutes of the Utilities Advisory Commission Meeting Held on October 12, 2022 From: Director of Utilities Lead Department: Utilities Recommended Motion Staff recommends that the UAC consider the following motion: Commissioner ______ moved to approve the draft minutes of the October 12, 2022 meeting as submitted/Amended. Commissioner ______ seconded the motion. Attachments: •Attachment: Draft Minutes Packet Pg. 4 Utilities Advisory Commission Minutes Approved on: Page 1 of 7 UTILITIES ADVISORY COMMISSION MEETING MINUTES OF OCTOBER 12, 2022 SPECIAL MEETING CALL TO ORDER Chair Segal called the meeting of the Utilities Advisory Commission (UAC) to order at 6:02p.m. Present: Chair Segal, Vice Chair Johnston, Commissioners Bowie, Forssell, Metz, and Scharff (arrived at 6:10 pm) Absent: Commissioner Smith AGENDA REVIEW AND REVISIONS None. ORAL COMMUNICATIONS Hamilton Hitchings commented regarding residential municipal fiber. Mr. Hitchings would like the City to partner with an outside vendor to offer competing service to AT&T and have them build out and own the residential infrastructure such as Atherton Fiber. Palo Alto could use the $30 million in its fiber fund to offer subsidies to another service provider instead of borrowing money. APPROVAL OF THE MINUTES Chair Segal invited comments on the September 14, 2022 UAC draft meeting minutes. Vice Chair Johnston noted on Pages 1 and 9 the speaker Hamilton Hutchings should be Hamilton Hitchings. Commissioner Johnston moved to approve the draft minutes of the September 14, 2022 meeting as amended. Commissioner Metz seconded the motion. The motion carried 5-0 with Chair Segal, Vice Chair Johnston and Commissioners Bowie, Forssell, Metz voting yes. Commissioner Scharff and Smith absent. a Packet Pg. 5 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t : D r a f t M i n u t e s ( 1 4 9 8 2 : D R A F T U A C M i n u t e s O c t o b e r 1 2 , 2 0 2 2 ) Utilities Advisory Commission Minutes Approved on: Page 2 of 7 UTILITIES DIRECTOR REPORT Dean Batchelor, Utilities Director, delivered the Director's Report. WaterSmart Program: The City recently launched WaterSmart, an online water management tool to help residents and businesses understand their water usage, enabling them to conserve water and save money by providing access to water use charts, personal recommendations for water efficiency and information on available rebates. The WaterSmart system integrates with MyCPAU portal. The City will promote the new program with a bill insert in November and a welcome letter to customers in early 2023. The City will begin sending out courtesy leak alerts and home water reports to single-family residential customers, including information on a customer’s water usage, comparisons to similar-sized Palo Alto households and water saving tips. Advanced Heat Pump Water Heater (HPWH) Program Approval: On October 3, Council approved a contract with Synergy Company, a Multifamily Plus Residential Energy Assistance Program for heat pump water heaters. CPAU will offer electric heat pump water heaters at three different affordability options: An all-inclusive $2,700 turnkey, a turnkey option of $1,500 with a $20 monthly payment financed for 5 years, or a self-directed HPWH installation with a rebate of $2,300 upon completion. S/CAP and Reach Code Update: On October 3, Council approved the Sustainability and Climate Action Plan (S/CAP) Goals and Key Actions and adopted a resolution to achieve carbon neutrality by 2035. Staff presented a proposal for the 2022 Building Reach Codes for Council's consideration at their October 17 meeting. Water Supply and Drought Update: The San Francisco Public Utilities Commission (SFPUC) is calling for voluntary Regional Water Systemwide water use reductions. Palo Alto’s voluntary cutback level is 8%. The City has taken recent measures to aid in community water savings, including increasing education and outreach as well as implementing more stringent water use restrictions such as limiting irrigation to two days per week, except for the health of trees and non-turf plantings. The City hired a water waste coordinator to help with education efforts. For January through April 2022, after the driest January through March in recorded history, Palo Alto’s usage was 17% above the water budget from SFPUC. For the months of July through September 2022, Palo Alto reduced water usage about 10% compared to the 2020 baseline. Palo Alto has now reduced water usage to 7% above the water budget. Mayors Climate Protection Award: The City was recognized with an honorable mention for the 2020 Mayors Climate Protection Awards. The award highlighted our Multifamily Gas Furnace to Heat Pump Retrofit Pilot Program, which will reduce the City’s greenhouse gas emissions and serves as a case study for future electrification projects in multifamily buildings. The Conference of Mayors made the announcement at their Annual Meeting in Reno, Nevada on June 3. Mayor Pat Burt and City staff received the award plaque in a special order of the day ceremony at the September 27 Council meeting. a Packet Pg. 6 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t : D r a f t M i n u t e s ( 1 4 9 8 2 : D R A F T U A C M i n u t e s O c t o b e r 1 2 , 2 0 2 2 ) Utilities Advisory Commission Minutes Approved on: Page 3 of 7 Upcoming Events: Details and registration are available at cityofpaloalto.org/workshops October 12 (tonight, from 6:30-7:30 p.m.): SunShares Informational Workshop October 15, 10 a.m.: Making Better Choices in Your Home Workshop October 18, 7 p.m.: Landscape Design 101 – How to Get Started November 1, 7 p.m.: Lawn Conversion 101 The quarterly report the Commission received tonight did not include our reliability numbers. In future quarterly reports, staff will include our reliability numbers for electric, gas and water. In response to Chair Segal’s suggestion regarding the calendar of programs offered to the public, Mr. Batchelor stated that staff could look into having a monthly event page on the Utilities website updated before the 1st of each month. UNFINISHED BUSINESS None. NEW BUSINESS ITEM 1: ACTION: Adoption of a Resolution Authorizing Use of Teleconferencing for Utilities Advisory Commission Meetings During COVID-19 State of Emergency ACTION: Vice Chair Johnston moved Staff recommendation that the Utilities Advisory Commission (UAC) Adopt a Resolution (Attachment A) authorizing the use of teleconferencing under Government Code Section 54953(e) for meetings of the Utilities Advisory Commission (UAC) and its committees due to the COVID-19 declared state of emergency. Seconded by Commissioner Metz. Motion carries 6-0 with Chair Segal, Vice Chair Johnston, and Commissioners Bowie, Forssell, Metz, and Scharff voting yes. Commissioner Smith absent. ITEM 2: DISCUSSION: Discussion and Update of Sanitary Sewer Main Replacement Acceleration Alternatives Matt Zucca, Assistant Director of Utilities WGW, made a presentation regarding alternatives for increasing the rate of sewer main replacement within the city. There are 138 miles of sewer mains to replace. The current rate of replacement is 1 mile per year but it needs to transition to 2.5 miles per year. a Packet Pg. 7 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t : D r a f t M i n u t e s ( 1 4 9 8 2 : D R A F T U A C M i n u t e s O c t o b e r 1 2 , 2 0 2 2 ) Utilities Advisory Commission Minutes Approved on: Page 4 of 7 In response to Commissioner Forssell’s question, Mr. Zucca explained that a State Revolving Fund (SRF) loan is a program managed by the State of California with an approximate 1.6% loan rate. There is a fixed amount of money loaned every cycle and a ranking priority depending upon the type of project. In reply to Vice Chair Johnston’s question regarding how an SRF loan affects the City’s credit rating, Mr. Zucca believed it is the same as any other loan. The payback period is typically 20 years as opposed to 30 years for bond financing. Staff will continue to look for funding opportunities to offset costs, such as the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. Staff will make a presentation to the Finance Committee in November. UAC and Finance will receive a preliminary financial forecast. Staff will present the final financial plans to the UAC and Finance before Council adopts final rates in June 2023. Mr. Zucca addressed Vice Chair Johnston’s queries about the frequency and causes of sanitary sewer overflows (SSOs). Staff could provide information on the frequency. A blockage might slow the water flow. When we have a rain event, leaky pipes allow water to come in and then it backs up. One way to prevent SSOs is with our aggressive cleaning program. By keeping it clean, it flows smoothly and avoids substantial replacement. CCTV is used for pipes and laterals but not yearly. Pipes are replaced with at least the same internal diameter and vitrified clay pipes are replaced with HDPE. Vice Chair Johnston wants to avoid a 15% rate increase or borrowing money, therefore he would not propose Alternative 1A or 1B but would accept Alternative 3 if vulnerable pipes can be accurately identified. Commissioner Bowie had questions regarding future potential infiltration events with climate change and sea level rise as well as the costs for the plant in comparison to the proposed rate increases. Mr. Zucca explained that we do not know the direct implication on groundwater levels, so it is very difficult to model. We qualitatively know the mechanics and dynamics. Hydraulics at the plant are expensive because of mechanical infrastructure (pipes, pumps, concrete, etc.). A master plan in the next couple years will include obtaining data on the rate of inflow and infiltration in the collection system now as opposed to 2006 when the last master plan was done. Commissioner Forssell stated Options 1A and 2 are reasonable as well as 1B if we get the 1.6 rate. Commissioner Scharff supports Option 2, however does not think we should be bonding at current interest rates. ACTION: None ITEM 3: DISCUSSION: Discussion and Presentation of 2018 Strategic Plan Implementation Anna Vuong, Sr. Business Analyst, made a presentation on Priority 1: Workforce. Initiatives in progress include applying the training and career path template to other divisions, conducting an employee satisfaction survey, promotion readiness evaluations to develop succession plans, a Packet Pg. 8 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t : D r a f t M i n u t e s ( 1 4 9 8 2 : D R A F T U A C M i n u t e s O c t o b e r 1 2 , 2 0 2 2 ) Utilities Advisory Commission Minutes Approved on: Page 5 of 7 digital recruitment ads (one is posted along Highway 101 at the Ikea board), working on ways to share team-building ideas and exploring how to collaborate with local daycare centers. Ms. Vuong addressed Commissioner Metz’s request for further details on recruitment efforts. Staff has attended college career fairs at Sacramento State, Cal Poly and San Jose State. One initiative is to work with some of the college counselors to determine which of their programs are suitable for entry-level positions in our engineering groups and operations. Dean Batchelor, Director of Utilities stated that staff works with NCPA (Northern California Power Agency) and SCPPA (Southern California Public Power Agency). One option may be working with high schools to recruit for the classification of operational helpers to learn the trade and become an apprentice. Staff is thinking about going to the high schools and if a student were interested in becoming a lineman, we would send them to 15 weeks of training. Staff has used two outside recruitment firms but we have not found an engineer or a lineman. Staff has been to Foothill and Cañada community colleges. Staff has targeted Sacramento State and San Luis Obispo because of their power engineering degree. Staff had some conversations with the union representing our line workers, SEIU (Service Employee International Union). The other 15 cities in the NCPA have IBEW, which has trainings and facilities but SEIU does not. IBEW will not let us into their apprenticeship trainings. Recruitment is an industrywide problem. Roseville and Alameda are having difficulties as well as two other agencies up north. Mr. Batchelor stated there are some linemen contracts for responding to emergencies along with our crews but the cost is about 2½ times more than we pay our linemen. Included in the contract is helping some of our apprentices, which has been a good partnership. The SEIU and the City are currently negotiating salary compensation. Staff made a comparison between the rates we pay contractors and our employees and have given those salary ranges to HR. About five agencies are part of our salary benchmark, including Santa Clara, Alameda and Roseville. UAC took a break at 7:32 p.m. and returned at 7:45 p.m. Catherine Elvert, Utilities Communications Manager, presented Priority 2: Collaboration. Commissioner Metz would like to have a customer satisfaction metric added as one of the first focus areas to address quality. Council Liaison Cormack would like to have the net promotor score included in the next iteration as well as a presentation from the residence in as opposed to from the utilities out. Ms. Elvert noted there was a new customer welcome letter this week, which was a project that the City Manager’s Office and a few other departments collaborated on with the Utilities Department. Council Liaison Cormack noted there are many phone numbers for Utilities, which is confusing but an opportunity to make it straightforward who the customer calls for what. a Packet Pg. 9 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t : D r a f t M i n u t e s ( 1 4 9 8 2 : D R A F T U A C M i n u t e s O c t o b e r 1 2 , 2 0 2 2 ) Utilities Advisory Commission Minutes Approved on: Page 6 of 7 Ms. Elvert stated the Utilities Department has historically conducted customer satisfaction surveys. The National Citizen Survey has a few questions about utilities. She mentioned we should add an initiative to collaborate with other departments and recognize what surveys are going out to the community so we are not duplicating our efforts or inducing survey fatigue. Dave Yuan, Strategic Business Manager, presented Priority 3: Technology. Chair Segal asked if the AMI data was integrated into the new SAP system. Mr. Yuan explained that flat files are exchanged. In the second half of next year, staff will decide if we stay with flat- file exchanges or real-time API for Phase 2 but there is a cost. We have a consultant if we decide to do so. Currently, the system collects all data on an SFTP server. At the end of the day, the system generates a file and schedules it to be sent to the SAP system. Mr. Yuan addressed the commission’s questions regarding maps. A VPN connection is required, so that is an extra layer of security. The desire for paperless tools is coming from the engineering and operations crew. Service and maintenance orders are written in the field and entered into SAP upon return to the office. With a mobile solution, the orders can be uploaded to the system. Jonathan Abendschein, Assistant Director of Utilities of Resource Management, presented Priority 4: Finance and Resource Optimization. In response to Commissioner Metz’ question regarding how resilience is a financial objective, Mr. Abendschein explained it is not just about achieving financial savings but also clearly defining our objectives for utility services and resiliency is central to that. Achieving improvements in resiliency and providing those services requires significant investment, so this priority is about balancing the needs for investment against the objectives we want to achieve. Mr. Abendschein addressed Chair Segal’s questions about capital replacement. Each investment and maintenance plan has a list of things to do yearly or areas of investment or pace of investment. Sometimes we did not have enough definition for the needed investment or maintenance for our assets, so it is a strategic effort to fully define and track. Success is defined as us meeting our plan objectives. Commissioner Forssell asked for an update on the second transmission line. Staff submitted an application to CAISO, which was not selected but we were provided feedback. We are in the process of working with a consultant on submitting a follow-up application. ACTION: None. COMMISSIONER COMMENTS and REPORTS from MEETINGS/EVENTS Vice Chair Johnston thanked Dean Batchelor and Tabatha Boatwright for the recognition event. a Packet Pg. 10 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t : D r a f t M i n u t e s ( 1 4 9 8 2 : D R A F T U A C M i n u t e s O c t o b e r 1 2 , 2 0 2 2 ) Utilities Advisory Commission Minutes Approved on: Page 7 of 7 FUTURE TOPICS FOR UPCOMING MEETINGS: Commission requested on update on the second transmission line. Vice Chair Johnston asked if fiber to the premises was scheduled for the November meeting. Commissioner Metz had questions regarding grid modernization. Dean Batchelor, Director of Utilities, responded that an upgrade update would be provided at the December meeting as well as a report on what the consultant found, an estimation of costs and the next steps. Commissioner Metz suggested having a strategic discussion on grid modernization, to include the impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), heat pumps and EVs. Mr. Batchelor replied that first the plant needs to be taken care of, then the strategic pieces and new programs. Dean Batchelor, Utilities Director, addressed Commissioner Metz’ questions related to resilience. An intern’s report will be shared, which includes the resiliency of what the system could do and how it could be improved. Commissioner Metz asked about the scheduling for Distributed Energy Resources (DER). Tabatha Boatwright, Utilities Administrative Assistant, responded that staff gives a quarterly report that includes updates on multiple items. Resiliency and DER are listed as reminders for staff to report on any items that include those topics. Commissioner Forssell suggested having a conversation about capacity planning at the state level. The community is very concerned given the flex alerts and it would be great to understand how capacity is being planned by the state as well as local capacity planning for the increased loads with e-pumps, EVs and new housing. NEXT SCHEDULED MEETING: November 2, 2022 Commissioner Forssell moved to adjourn. Vice Chair Johnston seconded the motion. The motion carried 6-0 with Chair Segal, Vice Chair Johnston, and Commissioners Bowie, Forssell, Metz, and Scharff voting yes. Commissioner Smith absent. Meeting adjourned at 8:53 p.m. Respectfully Submitted Tabatha Boatwright City of Palo Alto Utilities a Packet Pg. 11 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t : D r a f t M i n u t e s ( 1 4 9 8 2 : D R A F T U A C M i n u t e s O c t o b e r 1 2 , 2 0 2 2 ) City of Palo Alto (ID # 14983) Utilities Advisory Commission Staff Report Meeting Date: 12/7/2022 Report Type: IV. APPROVAL OF THE MINUTES City of Palo Alto Page 1 Title: Approval of the Minutes of the Utilities Advisory Commission Meeting Held on November 2, 2022 From: Director of Utilities Lead Department: Utilities Recommended Motion Staff recommends that the UAC consider the following motion: Commissioner ______ moved to approve the draft minutes of the November 2, 2022 meeting as submitted/Amended. Commissioner ______ seconded the motion. Attachments: • Attachment: DRAFT UAC Minutes Packet Pg. 12 UTILITIES ADVISORY COMMISSION MEETING MINUTES OF NOVEMBER 2, 2022 SPECIAL MEETING CALL TO ORDER Chair Segal called the meeting of the Utilities Advisory Commission (UAC) to order at 6:02p.m. Present: Chair Segal, Vice Chair Johnston, Commissioners Forssell, Metz, Scharff, and Smith (arrived at 6:03 pm) Absent: Commissioner Bowie AGENDA REVIEW AND REVISIONS None ORAL COMMUNICATIONS None APPROVAL OF THE MINUTES Chair Segal noted the October 12, 2022, draft minutes were not ready for review and would be available at the December 7, 2022, UAC meeting. UTILITIES DIRECTOR REPORT Dean Batchelor, Utilities Director, delivered the Director's Report. Gas Safety Outreach: Throughout the year, the City of Palo Alto Utilities (CPAU) delivers a variety of outreach materials to the community about utility safety. An important element of our public awareness program is the annual distribution of our gas safety awareness brochure. Per Federal Department of Transportation regulations, we directly mail this information to all customers, non-customers living near a gas pipeline, public officials, emergency responders, excavators, contractors, and locators working in Palo Alto. Gas safety brochures will be delivered in November. If interested in additional details about gas safety or this outreach, please visit cityofpaloalto.org/safeutility. Gas Safety Awareness Surveys: It is important to assess the effectiveness of our outreach for gas safety to guide our actions, and it is also required for public awareness per the Federal Department of Transportation. A primary way most utilities, including CPAU, do this is by 0 a Packet Pg. 13 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t : D R A F T U A C M i n u t e s ( 1 4 9 8 3 : D R A F T U A C M i n u t e s N o v e m b e r 2 , 2 0 2 2 ) contacting stakeholders through a randomized phone or email survey to ask questions about gas safety. Questions address items such calling USA 811 before digging, who to call and what to do in case of a gas leak, among others. Within the next month or so, we will engage with a contractor to conduct these stakeholder awareness surveys. If you get a call, we thank you in advance for helping us out by answering the questions! Water Efficiency Workshops: Tuesday, November 1 marked the last of a series of fall landscape workshops hosted by CPAU and the Bay Area Water Supply & Conservation Agency (BAWSCA). The workshops covered topics of rainwater harvesting, lawn conversion, and available rebates. Attendance was strong, with 91 residents participating over the course of the three workshops. These workshops are a great way for residents to learn from landscape experts about how to use water efficiently outdoors. One Water Plan: The One Water Plan is evaluating alternative water supplies to make the City’s water supply more resilient. Palo Alto is assessing key regional uncertainties and water supply risks such as projected shortages under multi-year droughts. The City will hold its second community workshop on December 6 at 5:30 p.m. to continue the conversation about water supply and conservation options and review draft evaluation criteria for the plan. The workshop will be at the Mitchell Park Community Center. Those unable to attend in person may join via Zoom. A link is available on our website at cityofpaloalto.org/workshops. Water Supply Update: The San Francisco Public Utilities Commission (SFPUC) continues to call for voluntary water use reductions for the Regional Water System. Palo Alto’s voluntary cutback level is 8%. The City has taken measures to aid in community water saving efforts, including increasing education and outreach, implementing water use restrictions such as limiting irrigation to two days per week, except to ensure the health of trees and other perennial non- turf plantings, and hiring a water waste coordinator. These actions seem to be making an impact. For January through April 2022, after the driest January through March in recorded history, Palo Alto’s cumulative usage was 17% above the cumulative water budget from SFPUC. Palo Alto has now reduced its cumulative water usage to 7% above the water budget for January through October 2022. For the billing months of July through October 2022, Palo Alto has reduced its water use 10% compared to the baseline of Fiscal Year 2020. Making Better Choices in Your Home Event: On Saturday, October 15, the City hosted a workshop titled “Making Better Choices in Your Home.” More than 100 community members attended and spoke with experts and staff about beneficial electrification, including heat pump water and space heating, induction cooking, upgrading electrical panels, electric vehicles and bikes. Twenty-two residents signed up at the event to learn more about the City’s new pilot program offering financing options for installing a heat pump water heater. Participants entered a free raffle to win sustainability-related prizes, and six community members won the top prize of a free Home Efficiency Genie Assessment. Electric Vehicle Events: On Sunday, October 30, 2022 hosted 2 events. Morning event from 9 a.m.-Noon: a Packet Pg. 14 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t : D R A F T U A C M i n u t e s ( 1 4 9 8 3 : D R A F T U A C M i n u t e s N o v e m b e r 2 , 2 0 2 2 ) Frunk or Treat @ Cal Ave*: Over 250 people came and checked out ten awesome EVs – Rivian R1T, Fiat 500e, Rivian R1S, Hyundai Ioniq 5, Mustang Mach-E, VW ID.4, Nissan Leaf, Tesla Model Y, Kia EV 6 and Ford F-150 Lightning – on display. The adults were very engaged with some even asking the EV owners/ambassadors if the cars were on display for sale and the kids enjoyed trick or treating in the frunks and trunks filled with goodies. We "sold out" of over 1.5k pieces of trick- or-treat candy and hundreds of City swag items like cute reminder tags related to water conservation (a project started by some students and provided to use for free), jar grippers, nightlights, cellphone fans, efficiency tips playing cards, hose nozzles, and reusable backpack- tote bags. This was an amazing pre-Halloween event for both adults and kids decked out in cute and cool costumes. *I staffed at this event. Afternoon event from 1:30 p.m. – 4:00 p.m.: EV Meet & Greet @ Congregation Kol Emeth*: Smaller event with about 50 attendees and fewer EVs on display, but there was a Polestar. This was an event geared more towards Congregation members. *We did not have City staff at this event. UNFINISHED BUSINESS None NEW BUSINESS ITEM 1: ACTION: Adoption of a Resolution Authorizing Use of Teleconferencing for Utilities Advisory Commission Meetings During Covid-19 State of Emergency ACTION: Vice Chair Johnston moved Staff recommendation that the Utilities Advisory Commission (UAC) Adopt a Resolution (Attachment A) authorizing the use of teleconferencing under Government Code Section 54953(e) for meetings of the Utilities Advisory Commission (UAC) and its committees due to the COVID-19 declared state of emergency. Seconded by Commissioner Metz. Motion carries 6-0 with Chair Segal, Vice Chair Johnston, and Commissioners Forssell, Metz, Smith, and Scharff voting yes. Commissioner Bowie absent. ITEM 2: ACTION: Staff Recommends the Utilities Advisory Commissioner Consider and Adopt an Attendance Policy Vice Chair Johnston suggested indicating Section 3 requirements do not apply for people attending remotely pursuant to Section 4. a Packet Pg. 15 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t : D R A F T U A C M i n u t e s ( 1 4 9 8 3 : D R A F T U A C M i n u t e s N o v e m b e r 2 , 2 0 2 2 ) Commissioner Scharff questioned whether the new Brown Act requirements have a limitation on 3 meetings a year. Jennifer Fine, Deputy City Attorney, explained that the just cause provisions have a 2-meeting limit and an overall limitation of not more than 20% of the body's meetings solely remotely. Because this body meets 12 times a year, one cannot attend a third meeting remotely using these new provisions. Commissioner Scharff reviewed the approved reasons for meeting remotely and suggested removing the phrase "actively discouraged." He felt if requirements were met, someone should not be discouraged from attending remotely. Chair Segal proposed rewording it more positively that members are encouraged to meet in person. She stated a decision needed to be made on how many total meetings per year commissioners may attend remotely. She questioned if it was possible to go beyond 3 total. Ms. Fine stated that using the standard remote attendance rules, it is possible to go beyond 3 but once beyond 2, using the just cause or emergency provisions is not allowed. Commissioner Scharff questioned the reason for a third remote attendance. There was further discussion on this. Commissioner Forssell questioned if the UAC has discretion on a policy of how many meetings per year a commissioner can do standard remote attendance. Ms. Fine stated the Commission has the discretion to decide how many meetings and agreed that it was hypothetically possible to let commissioners attend every meeting remotely following the posting requirements. Commissioner Forssell stated the meaning of 2C was hard to understand. Ms. Fine suggested to edit that to read, "A commission member who has already attended 2 meetings remotely in one calendar year for any reason may not attend another remotely under Section 4." Commissioner Scharff clarified that the real discretion is how many commission meetings in total people would be allowed to attend remotely. He asked if there were any other discretionary questions besides that. Ms. Fine stated that the general policy statement on whether remote attendance is discouraged or encouraged is also discretionary and listed other minor discretionary items that are Brown Act minimums or streamlining options that could be edited. The included scripts are discretionary. a Packet Pg. 16 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t : D R A F T U A C M i n u t e s ( 1 4 9 8 3 : D R A F T U A C M i n u t e s N o v e m b e r 2 , 2 0 2 2 ) Chair Segal stated there was also the timing of notice of a commissioner attending remotely because of just cause or for emergency purposes. She felt the earliest possible opportunity was reasonable. Ms. Fine stated that requiring a particular minimum can ensure a quorum at the singular physical location because if there is not a quorum at the singular physical location, none of the remote attendees can attend under just cause or emergency circumstances. Chair Segal suggested going through the discretionary items. For 2B, one proposal was to delete the statement that attending remotely is actively discouraged and another was to state that commission members are encouraged to attend commission meetings in person. Vice Chair Johnston suggested stating that commission members are strongly encouraged to appear in person. Chair Segal asked if anyone objected to that phrasing. No one objected, and she requested to propose that. Regarding 2C, she asked if the commissioners were comfortable with limit of 3 combined remote attendances. Commissioner Forssell reiterated the clarification "for any reason." Chair Segal read the revision, "A commission member who has already attended 2 meetings remotely in 1 calendar year for any reason may not attend another remotely under Section 4." There was discussion on this. Commissioner Scharff suggested 4 since no one had a strong preference. Council Liaison Cormack suggested using positive wording for Section 2C as well. Chair Segal read the proposal, "Each commission member may attend up to 4 commission meetings remotely per calendar year. A commission member who has already attended 2 meetings remotely in 1 calendar year for any reason may not attend another remotely under Section 4." There was a proposal to leave Section 2D as a singular policy, that at least a quorum must participate from a physical location within the City. She asked if anyone felt strongly about splitting that policy. Commissioner Forssell stated it would be confusing to change the longstanding tradition of gathering in City Hall. Ms. Fine stated that the script was open for modification and that the Commission could require additional notice. Chair Segal felt the members could be trusted to notify the Commission as soon as reasonably possible. She asked if anyone desired changes to the prescription in Section 4C IV, reflecting the a Packet Pg. 17 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t : D R A F T U A C M i n u t e s ( 1 4 9 8 3 : D R A F T U A C M i n u t e s N o v e m b e r 2 , 2 0 2 2 ) statute in a way that makes it easy to follow and notify commissioners. Commissioners felt it was helpful. Vice Chair Johnston was concerned that it was not clear that it is not necessary to meet the requirements of Section 3 under Section 4. Chair Segal proposed the sentence, "The 3 different ways to attend remotely are as follows," listing each of them so it is clear they are separate. She restated the following modifications: Under 2B, commissioners are strongly encouraged to attend commission meetings in person. Under 2C, each commissioner may attend up to 4 commission meetings remotely in any calendar year. A commission member who has already attended 2 remotely in one calendar year for any reason may not attend another remotely under Section 4. The remote attendance policy does not apply to emergency situations. There was discussion on whether an action would be taken at this meeting. ACTION: Commissioner Metz moved Staff recommendation that the Utilities Advisory Commission (UAC) Adopt an Attendance Policy, as amended. Seconded by Vice Chair Johnston. Motion carries 6-0 with Chair Segal, Vice Chair Johnston, and Commissioners Forssell, Metz, Smith, and Scharff voting yes. Commissioner Bowie absent Dean Batchelor, Director of Utilities, added that once the changes are made, it will be an informational for next month so the Commission will be able to see it. If there is discussion, it can be brought back up then. ITEM 3: ACTION: Staff Recommendation That the Utilities Advisory Commissioner Review and Recommend the City Council Affirm the Continuation of the REC Exchange Program Chair Segal asked for public comments. There were none. Jim Stack, PhD, Senior Resource Planner, stated this presentation would be similar to those he had shared previously with some discussion on the program's impacts to date and projections for the future. He shared the results of the program so far. The program was adopted in the summer of 2020 and involves selling excess in-state renewable energy (bucket 1 RECs) and purchasing out-of-state renewable energy (bucket 3 RECs). These 2 products are equivalent in terms of environmental and climate impacts, but due to the State's RPS regulations favoring use of in-state RECs, there is a price premium for bucket 1 RECs compared to bucket 3. That presented the City with an arbitrage opportunity. In 2020, the Council directed that two-thirds of the net revenue the program generates for the first 2 years would be devoted toward supply a Packet Pg. 18 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t : D R A F T U A C M i n u t e s ( 1 4 9 8 3 : D R A F T U A C M i n u t e s N o v e m b e r 2 , 2 0 2 2 ) cost reductions in order to keep residential rates lower, with the remainder allocated toward local decarbonization programs. For 2022 and beyond, all revenue would be allocated toward local decarbonization efforts. The program has generated nearly $7M in net revenue to date. If the program is continued into the future, that amount would gradually shrink as RPS level requirements gradually increase every year, reducing the amount of excess bucket 1 renewable energy available to sell. Projected cumulative net revenue for the next 5 years is $9M to $10M, all of which would be devoted toward local decarbonization efforts, such as building electrification programs. Functionally, there is no impact on the environmental quality of the electric supply. With the REC Exchange Program in place, the emissions intensity is roughly the same as the statewide average. Staff recommended the UAC recommend that the Council affirm the continuation of the REC Exchange Program and that Council direct staff to return to the UAC and City Council by 2027 to provide another review of the program's impacts. Vice Chair Johnston felt the program had turned out very well and was pleased there has not been a lot of pushback from the community. He commented that pushing the next report out to 2027 is too long and would prefer sometime around 2025. Commissioner Forssell asked if before the REC Exchange Program, the City would buy RECs to get to carbon neutral. She clarified that the baseline without REC exchanges is not in opposition to the claim of carbon neutrality because in either case, the City is purchasing enough bucket 3 RECs to get to carbon neutral. Dr. Stack stated that was correct. Commissioner Forssell asked for clarification of the statement on packet page 19 that some of the City's older and smaller renewable energy contracts are set to expire, further reducing the supply of bucket 1 RECs. She expected that expiring contracts would be replaced with other renewable energy sources and questioned why the RECs from those energy sources would not be available to do the REC exchange. Dr. Stack stated that because there has been much surplus renewable energy, staff had not assumed in the models that they would replace those small contracts. If the load grows to the point where it needs to be replaced, it would be replaced with renewable energy. Staff will be coming to the Commission next month with a discussion on long-term load forecasts with exciting impacts from building and transportation electrification and some possible new commercial load growths. Commissioner Metz stated selling one financial instrument and buying another does nothing to advance environmental sustainability. He felt buying bucket 3 RECs provided no renewable additionality, which is the reason California sharply limits bucket 3 RECs and the reason bucket 3 RECs are so much cheaper than bucket 1 RECs. He felt this probably reduces renewable energy and recommended, if this plan goes forward, using the money to generate renewable energy locally plus increasing conservation rather than decarbonization. a Packet Pg. 19 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t : D R A F T U A C M i n u t e s ( 1 4 9 8 3 : D R A F T U A C M i n u t e s N o v e m b e r 2 , 2 0 2 2 ) Dr. Stack believed there was a reasonable debate to be had about the additionality question. He felt Palo Alto stepped up pretty early in renewable energy and had a big impact on that market. Bucket 3 RECs have increased substantially over the past few years. This makes a meaningful impact on the finances of the renewable energy developers. Commissioner Forssell remembered the Commission raising the same concern about additionality in 2019 or 2020. She remembered reading academic papers that indicated that bucket 3 RECs had the necessary qualities in terms of carbon reduction, also noting the fact that the California requirements may have been motivated by state legislators' desire to keep the economic benefits of these projects in state. Commissioner Metz stated electricity is about delivering energy at a certain place and time and the definition of bucket 3 RECs is they do not have that time or place connection. He felt there was an increasing problem with increasingly renewable resources being built and paid for and not contributing renewable energy. Chair Segal highlighted that multiple commission meetings were spent on this issue over time. She stated this policy has already been approved by the City Council, and the question is whether to continue it. On the question of whether the next review should be in 2027 or sooner, she proposed 2025. She hoped that some documentation or review of old meetings would make Commissioner Metz comfortable as it had been discussed previously. ACTION: Vice Chair Johnston moved Staff recommendation that the Utilities Advisory Commission (UAC) recommend that the City Council: 1) affirm the continuation of the “REC Exchange Program,” whereby the City exchanges bundled RECs from its long-term renewable resources (Bucket 1 RECs) for Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) eligible, unbundled RECs (Bucket 3 RECs),1 to the maximum extent possible, while maintaining compliance with the state’s RPS regulations, in order to provide additional revenue for local decarbonization efforts; and 2) direct staff to return to the UAC and City Council in 2025 to provide another review of the program’s impacts. Seconded by Commissioner Forssell. Motion carries 6-0 with Chair Segal, Vice Chair Johnston, and Commissioners Forssell, Metz, Smith, and Scharff voting yes. Commissioner Bowie absent ITEM 4: ACTION: Staff Recommends the Utilities Advisory Commission Recommend the Finance Committee Recommend That the City Council Adopt a Resolution Amending the E-HRA (Electric Hydro Rate Adjuster) Rate Schedule, Increasing the Current E-HRA Rate to $0.026/kWh Effective January 1, 2023. a Packet Pg. 20 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t : D R A F T U A C M i n u t e s ( 1 4 9 8 3 : D R A F T U A C M i n u t e s N o v e m b e r 2 , 2 0 2 2 ) Chair Segal requested any comments from the public, and there were none. Eric Keniston, Sr. Resource Planner, stated this is a proposal to increase the Electric Hydro Rate Adjustor, which was implemented several years ago to fund additional power purchases when hydro supplies are low. This is a very low hydro year that requires going out for more market power, which can be quite expensive, about twice what had originally been projected. Power costs in FY22 were about $16M higher than what was budgeted. All of the hydro stabilization reserve was used to help mitigate against that, and the existing Hydro Rate Adjustor was implemented in April 2022 to help offset the effects. Right now the supply operations reserve is only about 22M, with a minimum reserve guideline of around 18M. Because of regional and worldwide problems, a lot of the resources are incredibly expensive. The estimate is upwards of $9M higher than what is in the current budget. Without adding to the current Hydro Rate Adjustor, the reserve will drop below the minimum guideline level by the end of this fiscal year. Doubling the existing Hydro Rate Adjustor from 1.3 cents to 2.6 cents would bring in an additional $5M for the rest of this fiscal year and should keep it above minimum guideline level. With the upcoming electric rate increase in June, staff will likely bring in potential amendments to the existing Hydro Rate Adjustor method, something more flexible that takes the budget into account and a more fluid Hydro Rate Adjustor on customer bills. Vice Chair Johnston questioned if the new increased Hydro Rate Adjustor would be implemented as soon as it is approved by the City Council. Mr. Keniston stated ideally the proposal would be in front of the Finance Committee in November and to Council by December for a January 1 implementation. Within 6 months, if sales stay close to projections, there should be about $5M additional in revenue to help offset costs. Commissioner Metz asked if buying more gas-generated electricity with the fuel surcharge compensates for the extra expense. Mr. Keniston stated there is not a gas surcharge on the electric rates, just the Hydro Rate Adjustor tacked on to cover additional market costs beyond hydro generation. Moving forward, the existing Hydro Rate Adjustor may be turned to a Power Cost Adjustor to encompass the higher market-related costs of procuring supplies greater than budget. Commissioner Metz asked if the real problem is the large fixed cost for hydro and the variable supply. He stated it seemed like the reason for this problem was trying to match a fixed cost to a variable revenue source. Mr. Keniston stated the Hydro Rate Adjustor is meant to recover the costs of when there is no hydro. There are certain fixed costs related to hydroelectric, but the increased cost is related to the variable of the market-based power. In future rate actions, staff might suggest putting in a fixed charge for customers to better represent those fixed costs, but that will be forthcoming with the rate changes for July 1, 2024. a Packet Pg. 21 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t : D R A F T U A C M i n u t e s ( 1 4 9 8 3 : D R A F T U A C M i n u t e s N o v e m b e r 2 , 2 0 2 2 ) Dean Batchelor, Director of Utilities, added the Hydro Adjustor is flexible. When hydro is in good condition, these charges go away. He stated there is a question of looking for other renewable energy, wind or solar, to offset these costs. Commissioner Scharff cautioned not to assume current conditions will last forever. The only variable is if drought will be the new normal and then hydro would be a bad bet. He believed hydro has been a great positive for the city and that the savings have far offset the added costs in the dry years. He believed that increasing the Hydro Rate Adjustor was a measured response and that people would get the benefit in a non-drought year. He supported the plan. Commissioner Forssell agreed that the Hydro Rate Adjustor was a better tool than a complete rate increase. She looked forward to staff coming back next time with something even more flexible and supported this plan. Chair Segal also supported the plan and liked the flexibility. Council Liaison Cormack stated that the difference in the operations reserve balance needs to be highlighted in the staff report. ACTION: Vice Chair Johnston moved Staff recommendation that the Utilities Advisory Commission (UAC) recommend the Finance Committee recommend that Council adopt a resolution amending the Electric Hydro Rate Adjuster (E-HRA), effective January 1, 2023, to reflect current hydrological conditions and market purchase costs. This would double the existing E-HRA surcharges and discounts across all levels, increasing the current E-HRA rate from $0.013/kwh to $0.026/kwh. Seconded by Commissioner Forssell. Motion carries 6-0 with Chair Segal, Vice Chair Johnston, and Commissioners Forssell, Metz, Smith, and Scharff voting yes. Commissioner Bowie absent UAC took a break at 7:26 p.m. and returned at 7:41 p.m. ITEM 5: ACTION: Changes to the Utilities Rules and Regulations and Rate Schedules for AMI Implementation Chair Segal asked if there were any public comments. There were none. Dave Yuan, Strategic Business Manager, stated the items to discuss are deployment of Advanced Metering Infrastructure and build-overs. There was an addition of the definition of Advanced Metering Infrastructure to Rule 2. Regarding Rule 9, there was the new functionality of remotely a Packet Pg. 22 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t : D R A F T U A C M i n u t e s ( 1 4 9 8 3 : D R A F T U A C M i n u t e s N o v e m b e r 2 , 2 0 2 2 ) connecting or disconnecting without having to send out a crew. These remote connect and disconnect switches will be piloted. In Rule 10, customers may opt out of the AMI program, either before the installation crew comes out or after the advanced meter has been installed. The electronic transmission would be turned off, and the meter would need to be read manually with no data transmitting. There would be a one-time $100 fee and a $25 monthly fee to recover staff time for these opt-out customers, which will have to be manually reviewed and also physically audited every year. Rules 15 and 20 were about adding peripheral equipment for meters, the radial endpoints that will be part of the AMI infrastructure for gas and water meters. Regarding overbuilds, Rule 8 required customers to make sure there is unobstructed access to the meters and service lines. In Rule 20, the City has the right to relocate a service line or meter, with charge borne by the customer, if the customer has done something to obstruct access. Vice Chair Johnston stated it would be helpful to note in 9E that the same procedures as 9C would be followed. He questioned that it is $25 a month for 1 meter reading a year. Mr. Yuan stated the $25 is for manually entering and validating the customer's self-reported reads and following up with customers who do not submit their reads. The figure was based on staff time, estimating the amount of minutes per each staff member conducting each task. The fees are for cost recovery only and not to make money or discourage residents from opting out. Commissioner Forssell supported the fees but felt it would be worthwhile to revisit it after implementing the program and base it on actual costs rather than estimates. She suggested the definition of Advanced Metering Infrastructure be updated to include what distinguishes a "smart" meter and also that a tighter definition of "near realtime consumption data" would be helpful. Mr. Yuan stated there will be a 1-day delay because it has to be integrated back with the SIP system. It is not currently an instantaneous read. Commissioner Forssell suggested calling out the range as somewhere between daily and whatever aspiration this technology will ultimately support. Mr. Yuan also noted there would be a rate assistance fee, $10 monthly and $50 one-time instead of the $25 and $100. Chair Segal stated there was a change to 9E II to clarify that it is the same notice provided as in 9C whether it is remote or not. The AMI definition will be revisited. ACTION: Vice Chair Johnston moved Staff recommendation that the UAC recommend Council adopt the attached Resolution (Attachment A) amending Utilities Rules and Regulations 2, 8, 9 (Change request was to ensure that the notices for physical disconnect/reconnect also apply to remote disconnect/reconnect), 10, 15, 18, 20, and Utilities Rate Schedules C-1 and C-4, as amended. a Packet Pg. 23 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t : D R A F T U A C M i n u t e s ( 1 4 9 8 3 : D R A F T U A C M i n u t e s N o v e m b e r 2 , 2 0 2 2 ) Seconded by Commissioner Metz Motion carries 6-0 with Chair Segal, Vice Chair Johnston, and Commissioners Forssell, Metz, Smith, and Scharff voting yes. Commissioner Bowie absent ITEM 6: ACTION: Staff Recommends That the Utilities Advisory Committee (UAC) Approve a Recommendation That Council Recommend Building the Fiber Backbone and Options for Fiber- to-the-Premises (FTTP) Chair Segal requested public comments. Daniel Dulitz believed all the technical questions had been answered and there was no significant technical risk in this proposal. Areas served by AT&T fiber would likely receive better service if there were a true fiber competitor. He supported the FTTP recommendation, specifically Option 2, a phased build-out that would mitigate the primary risks of take rates and marketing. He believed wise application of phasing could support the vast majority of the City's needs in a relatively short time frame. Hamilton Hitchings stated staff has claimed a 25% take rate is necessary to break even. He asked the Commission and staff to provide a more realistic estimate of take rate to City Council, such as 20%. The cost estimates for the City have already increased 20% from 2021 to 2022, much faster than inflation. Estimating further cost increases, the necessary take rate will be much higher. He stated no other city in California has concluded that citywide, city-owned offering makes sense and successfully deployed it. He believed it may not be commercially viable for a third high-speed Internet provider to start in Palo Alto; however, he felt subsidies should be offered to entice companies like Atherton Fiber and gave examples of ways to do this. He requested staff add a subsidy for high-speed Internet for low-income households. He asked the Commission to recommend Option 3 to the Council to improve the city's fiber offering without the risk of borrowing money, and not Option 1, which could result in the City owing a large amount of money, requiring cutting of funding elsewhere. Jeff Hoel recommended Option 1. He stated the incremental Option 2 costs more and takes longer to implement, giving competitors more time to be competitive first. He described Chattanooga's network idea and how the FTTP alone made enough money to pay for it, and he felt that was an inspiration Palo Alto could take advantage of. Herb Borock agreed with Mr. Hoel but questioned if the Council and Commission would approve a 5-year project if their own neighborhoods were last. He was concerned about the cost estimates and stated adding up the amount of money from the fiber fund and the bonds is almost as much as the total FTTP cost, which did not make sense. He stated the depreciation rates do a Packet Pg. 24 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t : D R A F T U A C M i n u t e s ( 1 4 9 8 3 : D R A F T U A C M i n u t e s N o v e m b e r 2 , 2 0 2 2 ) not match the City's rates and listed several revenue concerns. He questioned the location of the fiber hut. Dave Yuan, Strategic Business Manager, was looking for UACs recommendation on how the City should move forward with FTTP and enhance broadband in the community. Staff returned with follow-up information from the joint session on September 19. There are 3 options of deployment: full deployment, incremental or phased build-out, and pausing and collaborating with the private ISPs. There is no city in California providing citywide municipal FTTP. Regarding whether microtrenching could help reduce construction costs and speed up deployment, he listed the advantages and disadvantages and stated staff does not recommend microtrenching in Palo Alto currently. In regard to the fiber reserves, the City has a very successful dark fiber business and has accumulated about $34M since inception. The dark fiber reserves generated so far can be used for any fiber-related projects, but it is uncertain how future revenues could be used due to recent litigation under Prop 26 and 218. For all 3 options, the staff recommends building out the fiber backbone and reinvesting back in the fiber network. He discussed this further. He detailed the advantages of Option 1. Chair Segal questioned the amount put in by the electric fund for this option. Mr. Yuan stated that the electric portion would be bond financed because the City would get a better rate because electric has a healthier financial record than fiber. Commissioner Forssell stated the fiber backbone recommended under all 3 options enables more connectivity for city departments but only Option 1 provides infrastructure for smart city applications. She asked about examples of what is available for all three versus only Option 1. Mr. Yuan stated Option 1 will fiber in the neighborhoods. More fiber would help with connectivity in certain neighborhoods, especially in the Stanford area during games and in the parking garages. It would be distributed throughout the city and not just along the corridors. Right now some of those initiatives cannot be connected because there is not fiber nearby. Parks also had requests for fiber to do Wi-Fi in certain areas. Transportation wanted to add some electronic signs in some areas. Commissioner Scharff questioned whether the general fund would be on the hook for this if fiber could not pay the interest on the bonds. Mr. Yuan stated that based on his understanding, the general fund would be on the hook if the fiber fund was not able to pay off the debt service at the end. He believed the bond holders could go after the electric fund as well if they were bond financed together. He moved on to discussing disadvantages of Option 1, including risk of competition and risk of the take rate. If the take rate is less than 25%, subsidies from the City would probably be required to cover the debt payments. Commissioner Scharff was concerned about the effect of rising interest rates. He felt this made a lot more sense when interest rates were cheap. Given the take rate is the thing that matters, a Packet Pg. 25 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t : D R A F T U A C M i n u t e s ( 1 4 9 8 3 : D R A F T U A C M i n u t e s N o v e m b e r 2 , 2 0 2 2 ) he believed 3 to 6 months should be offered free to the entire community, which would probably give a 100% take rate and people could then opt out later. Mr. Yuan stated there is $34M in the bank right now and interest rates could potentially be down in a year or two. He described Option 2, the phased deployment, including deployment options. Dean Batchelor, Utilities Director, stated in the past this Commission did not like the idea of building out in phases as it could take 10 to 14 years. One reason staff was asked to put this option back in was the potential for interest rates to continue to climb with a payback that would be even higher. The advantage of this is to have time to analyze if it makes sense moving forward. It also gives time for electrification with opportunities to build jointly from an electric and fiber perspective. This would not take 10 years because there will be some scale economies that to work with the electric side. Poles are going to have to grow, and space can be added for the fiber side. There will be cost savings with that. Mr. Yuan then talked about the advantages of Option 2. Chair Segal asked if there is a backup plan in case this is more expensive than initially planned and the money runs out before the 25% take rate. Mr. Yuan stated there is some contingency built in the financial model for construction costs. It is possible to do more marketing campaigns, slow down construction costs, slow down construction projects, or renegotiate with vendors. Chair Segal stated it is not known how long phase 2 could take if it depends on initial take rate to fund future projects and now combining it with electrification. Mr. Batchelor did not believe that was true. Using the synergies around electrification, the system needs to be rebuilt in a period of time, possibly 7 rather than 10 years. Vice Chair Johnston questioned what would happen if the take rate on the initial build-out was not sufficient. Mr. Yuan stated it would depend on the gap, whether or not to bond finance the rest of the project or do a slower build-out. The longest it would take is roughly 20 years. Chair Segal questioned the cost of the staff and the support and whether the customer or the utility would buy the boxes inside the homes. Mr. Yuan stated the City will provide the equipment. Staffing would probably start with an outsourcing model and pay based on phase or customer take rate. a Packet Pg. 26 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t : D R A F T U A C M i n u t e s ( 1 4 9 8 3 : D R A F T U A C M i n u t e s N o v e m b e r 2 , 2 0 2 2 ) Mr. Batchelor stated another option is to look for a third party to partner with because the most costly piece of the fiber system is the last mile and the operation portion. He did not believe the asset would be shut down. Mr. Yuan discussed the disadvantages of Option 2 and then Option 3's advantages and disadvantages. Vice Chair Johnston recalled talking to both AT&T and Google Fiber in 2016 and they were not interested. He did not expect the ISPs to act more positively now than 6 years ago. Mr. Yuan showed a cost comparison chart of the 3 Options. He stated the Option 2 model was built assuming aerial and the numbers would have to be rerun for underground. He stated aerial was the areas of lowest cost and highest density, but in underground areas with higher demand, the construction cost would go up as well and offset the savings. Commissioner Forssell questioned if the total cost of $20M would be split differently between the fiber and electric funds depending on which of the 3 options. Mr. Yuan stated for Option 2, $20M would be allocated but the number of customers may be less for underground versus aerial. There was discussion about this. John Honker, Magellan Principal, expanded on Option 2 as a way to start with fiber to the home rather than all at once with Option 1. There will be about $20M for a first phase of FTTP. He explained the options for phased deployment, showing a map of lowest-cost, highest-density areas and where AT&T fiber is reported based on survey results. He detailed the various areas on the maps and what the deployment options were in those areas. He felt the risk to the City is lower with Option 2 because there is no debt service attached to the fiber fund, which creates a more economical build that could potentially withstand lower take rates and also gives some opportunity to get into the market in a big way. Commissioner Smith believed there were at least 28 cities in the State of California with municipal FTTP service and questioned that. Mr. Honker stated a number of cities have started the process on a limited basis but none have built out to 100% of the city. Commissioner Smith stated there seemed to be fear about the City's ability to do this business. The City knows the residential side from electrical. The fiber is just one aspect, and partnering seems logical. He asked if the analysis showed the minimum possible take rate to be much higher than 25%. Mr. Honker stated the analysis came to around 40% after discounting for execution risk and inflation contingencies. a Packet Pg. 27 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t : D R A F T U A C M i n u t e s ( 1 4 9 8 3 : D R A F T U A C M i n u t e s N o v e m b e r 2 , 2 0 2 2 ) Commissioner Smith felt that was an important statistic and stated 25% represents the bare minimum. The citizen population is keenly interested in getting this done. For Option 1 or 2, the entire cost of the build, inflation, interest rate will be more. He liked that Option 1 forces building and bringing customers on at a take rate that can support the payments. He liked that Option 2 spends the money available today first and gets to the playing field. He suggested, if both inflation and interest rate costs are too great a burden to accept at this time, accepting Option 2 as a starting position and then in a year or two when there are better statistics and understanding as to how to run the business, reintroducing Option 1 for some type of revenue bond. Commissioner Forssell asked how many of the 740 deposits are being hit in the map under the areas of highest demand scenario. Mr. Honker stated the 740 deposits were distributed through the areas. Any areas that had less than 5 deposits were not considered in the analysis. There are about 350 in the areas of highest demand scenario, about half of the deposits. Commissioner Scharff also asked about starting with Option 2 and continuing to roll on if it is going well. Mr. Honker stated that assuming things are going well with the first phase, additional financing would happen and may create some opportunity, having a going concern business at that point. Maybe the fiber facility could stand on its own at that point because it has assets, revenues, and a track record. It would potentially open up more financing opportunities to mitigate some of the interest rate risk that is out there today. Commissioner Scharff wondered about the fear of AT&T, if it was a fear of being the third player. Mr. Honker stated there are not a lot of scenarios with 2 fiber competitors in the same market. The fear may be unsubstantiated, but it would be a substitute product in the market that could lower take rates. The other features may still influence people to buy from Palo Alto Fiber rather than AT&T, but the core product is very similar. There was further discussion about customers with AT&T service. When asked how long it would take to have fiber in people's homes if the City Council approved this immediately, Mr. Honker stated a conservative timeline would be 18 to 24 months. Commissioner Scharff believed that in that time, AT&T would have started moving into more of the green areas on the map. There was discussion about the best starting areas. Council Liaison Cormack believed this conversation and the map would be very important when the Council makes a decision. She encouraged staff to talk about the advantages and disadvantages when bringing this forward to the Council. Commissioner Forssell referenced the study showing very few people interested in faster upload speeds. She felt an indication of whether people have good broadband available is important, a Packet Pg. 28 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t : D R A F T U A C M i n u t e s ( 1 4 9 8 3 : D R A F T U A C M i n u t e s N o v e m b e r 2 , 2 0 2 2 ) instead of being solely focused on fiber. She felt the goal was not to win against other providers but for everyone in Palo Alto to have access to good-quality broadband. She was not interested in Option 1, which seems too risky. She wanted to see areas of need for Option 2. She also wanted a better understanding of how Internet works in multifamily buildings as multifamily housing is concentrated in certain areas of the city and that could affect the conversation. Vice Chair Johnston did not feel Option 3 moved toward the goal of getting high-speed broadband service to everyone in Palo Alto. He stated after listening to the discussion, he favored Option 2 with some additional thinking about where to start the build-out. Commissioner Metz wanted clarification that all the cities in California delivering residential high- speed Internet were partnering with an ISP. Mr. Yuan stated those partnerships are in targeted areas, not a full citywide deployment. Commissioner Metz referred to previous research that there is strong community support and the majority of residents have unbundled Internet from cable. He favored Option 2 and possibly in parallel partnering with a service provider. There is nothing to prevent accelerating this later. Chair Segal questioned when the electrification projects might start and also wondered why no city in California is doing what Palo Alto is proposing. Mr. Honker stated in almost every other state without restrictions, cities are providing service. Labor costs being higher has been a recurring theme from other cities that have considered or started to deploy FTTP. Mr. Batchelor stated there was not yet an estimate on when electrification would begin. Chair Segal stated switching over is not simple for everyone. If the goal is to get broadband to everyone, the areas of AT&T fiber reported would be the last ones to look at. After the discussion, she favored Option 2 and felt Commissioner Scharff's idea of free Internet to incentivize was intriguing. Commissioner Scharff stated he felt the Commission did not need to decide immediately about where to go but about which option. His concern was to demonstrate a viable business. Once there is a viable business, then Internet can be provided for those who do not have it. If it is not a viable business to start with, the whole thing will fall apart and will never go through the whole city. He made a motion to recommend Option 2. Vice Chair Johnston seconded the motion. Commissioner Forssell wanted to define Option 2 as having additional decisions to be made, with a more limited initial build-out that does not require bond financing. a Packet Pg. 29 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t : D R A F T U A C M i n u t e s ( 1 4 9 8 3 : D R A F T U A C M i n u t e s N o v e m b e r 2 , 2 0 2 2 ) Commissioner Scharff stated that going with Option 2 meant staff would come back several times to discuss the details. It is not a business plan fleshed out; it is a decision not to go for bond financing and to use the money already available. Mr. Yuan stated Option 2 is to have a phased approach without any bond financing. The $20-M is not fixed and more analysis is needed. Commissioner Metz favored the motion of Option 2 but wanted to highlight the ISP ingredients in Option 3 because that has not been discussed previously. Mr. Yuan felt that contracting out the ISP service part would come with the outsourcing model for Option 2. Vice Chair Johnston did not want to see the ISP be a condition of moving the project forward. Commissioner Smith stated voting Option 2 pushes the project forward, recommending to Council to spend the available money first, but he did not want to restrict the City Council or the individuals who run the business on how to run the business efficiently and economically. Chair Segal stated Option 2 does not even decide between which phased approach is recommended and she was struggling with whether to recommend fiber at all. Commissioner Forssell agreed with the motion as presented. Commissioner Smith did not agree. He questioned what happens in 2 years' time when interest rates collapse and the $140M investment is now $80M from an economics perspective. He felt the original Option 2 the way it was drafted in the packet seemed appropriate and did not think it was in the Commission's purview to direct Council how to fund a recommendation. There was more discussion about the language of Option 2. Commissioner Scharff amended the motion to say, "Use $34M from the Fiber fund and $13M from the electric fund to build the fiber backbone and build phase 1 of the FTTP distribution network in a phased approach." ACTION: Commissioner Scharff moved Staff recommendation that the Utilities Advisory Commission (UAC) approve a recommendation that Council recommend building the fiber backbone and the following option for Fiber-to-the- Premises (FTTP): Option 2. Build fiber backbone and FTTP under a phased approach without new bond financing. Use $34M from the Fiber fund and $13M from the Electric fund to build the fiber backbone and build phase 1 of the FTTP distribution network in a phased approach. Seconded by Vice Chair Johnston a Packet Pg. 30 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t : D R A F T U A C M i n u t e s ( 1 4 9 8 3 : D R A F T U A C M i n u t e s N o v e m b e r 2 , 2 0 2 2 ) Motion carries 6-0 with Chair Segal, Vice Chair Johnston, and Commissioners Forssell, Metz, Smith, and Scharff voting yes. Commissioner Bowie absent COMMISSIONER COMMENTS and REPORTS from MEETINGS/EVENTS None FUTURE TOPICS FOR UPCOMING MEETINGS: Commissioner Metz asked what issues Grid Modernization and the Resiliency update would address. Dean Batchelor, Utilities Director, stated Grid Modernization was to give an update on what was found by the consultant hired to do an overview of the system. It is mostly geared to the system and would touch on some issues at a high level. He stated the Resiliency update was about looking at resiliency around micro gridding and potential correlation with modernization and resiliency. NEXT SCHEDULED MEETING: December 7, 2022 Meeting adjourned at 10:07 p.m. Respectfully Submitted Jenelle Kamian, Program Assistant City of Palo Alto Utilities a Packet Pg. 31 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t : D R A F T U A C M i n u t e s ( 1 4 9 8 3 : D R A F T U A C M i n u t e s N o v e m b e r 2 , 2 0 2 2 ) City of Palo Alto (ID # 14941) Utilities Advisory Commission Staff Report Meeting Date: 12/7/2022 Report Type: VII. NEW BUSINESS City of Palo Alto Page 1 Title: Adoption of a Resolution Authorizing Use of Teleconferencing for Utilities Advisory Commission Meetings During Covid -19 State of Emergency From: Director of Utilities Lead Department: Utilities Recommendation Adopt a Resolution (Attachment A) authorizing the use of teleconferencing under Government Code Section 54953(e) for meetings of the Utilities Advisory Commission (UAC) and its committees due to the Covid-19 declared state of emergency. Background In February and March 2020, the state and the County declared a state of emergency due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Both emergency declarations remain in effect. On September 16, 2021, the Governor signed AB 361, a bill that amends the Brown Act, effective October 1, 2021, to allow local policy bodies to continue to meet by teleconferencing during a state of emergency without complying with restrictions in State law that would otherwise apply, provided that the policy bodies make certain findings at least once every 30 days. AB 361, codified at California Government Code Section 54953(e), empowers local policy bodies to convene by teleconferencing technology during a proclaimed state of emergency under the State Emergency Services Act in any of the following circumstances: (A) The legislative body holds a meeting during a proclaimed state of emergency, and state or local officials have imposed or recommended measures to promote social distancing. (B) The legislative body holds a meeting during a proclaimed state of emergency for the purpose of determining, by majority vote, whether as a result of the emergency, meeting in person would present imminent risks to the health or safety of attendees. 1 Packet Pg. 32 City of Palo Alto Page 2 (C) The legislative body holds a meeting during a proclaimed state of emergency and has determined, by majority vote, pursuant to subparagraph (B) (B), that, as a result of the emergency, meeting in person would present imminent risks to the health or safety of attendees. (Gov. Code § 54953(e)(1).) In addition, Section 54953(e)(3) requires that policy bodies using teleconferencing reconsider the state of emergency within 30 days of the first teleconferenced me eting after October 1, 2021, and at least every 30 days thereafter, and find that one of the following circumstances exists: 1. The state of emergency continues to directly impact the ability of the members to meet safely in person. 2. State or local officials continue to impose or recommend measures to promote social distancing. 1 Packet Pg. 33 City of Palo Alto Page 3 Discussion At this time, the circumstances in Section 54953(e)( 1)(A) exist. The Santa Clara County Health Officer continues to recommend measures to promote outdoor activity, physic al distancing and other social distancing measures, such as masking, in certain contexts. (See August 2, 2021 Order.) In addition, the California Department of Industrial Relations Division of Occupational Safety and Health (Cal/OSHA) has promulgated Section 3205 of Title 8 of the California Code of Regulations, which requires most employers in California, including in the City, to train and instruct employees about measures that can decrease the spread of COVID -19, including physical distancing and other social distancing measures. Accordingly, Section 54953(e)(1)(A) authorizes the City to continue using teleconferencing for public meetings of its policy bodies, provided that any and all members of the public who wish to address the body or its committees have an opportunity to do so, and that the statutory and constitutional rights of parties and the members of the public attending the mee ting via teleconferencing are protected. To comply with public health directives and promote public safety, Palo Alto policy bodies have been meeting via teleconference since March 2020. On September 27, 2021, the City Council considered the format for future Council, committee, and Board and Commission meetings. Council determined that beginning November 1, 2021, Council meetings would be conducted using a hybrid format that allows Council Members and the public to decide whether to attend in person, following masking and distancing protocols, or participate via teleconference. Council directed that Council standing and ad-hoc committees and Boards and Commissions would continue meeting via teleconference through March 2022. Adoption of the Resolution at Attachment A will make the findings required by Section 54953(e)(3) to allow the continued use of teleconferencing for meetings of the Utilities Advisory Commission (UAC) and its committees. Attachments: • Attachment A: Resolution 1 Packet Pg. 34 NOT YET APPROVED Resolution No. ____ Resolution Making Findings to Allow Teleconferenced Meetings Under California Government Code Section 54953(e) R E C I T A L S A. California Government Code Section 54953(e) empowers local policy bodies to convene by teleconferencing technology during a proclaimed state of emergency under the State Emergency Services Act so long as certain conditions are met; and B. In March 2020, the Governor of the State of California proclaimed a state of emergency in California in connection with the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (“COVID-19”) pandemic, and that state of emergency remains in effect; and C. In February 2020, the Santa Clara County Director of Emergency Services and the Santa Clara County Health Officer declared a local emergency, which declarations were subsequently ratified and extended by the Santa Clara County Board of Supervisors, and those declarations also remain in effect; and D. On September 16, 2021, the Governor signed AB 361, a bill that amends the Brown Act to allow local policy bodies to continue to meet by teleconferencing during a state of emergency without complying with restrictions in State law that would otherwise apply, provided that the policy bodies make certain findings at least once every 30 days; and E. While federal, State, and local health officials emphasize the critical importance of vaccination and consistent mask-wearing to prevent the spread of COVID-19, the Santa Clara County Health Officer has issued at least one recommendation, on September 21, 2021 (available online here), that public bodies meet remotely to the extent possible, in addition to recommendations issued February 28, 2022,1 to continue social distancing measures, such as masking, in certain contexts; and F. The California Department of Industrial Relations Division of Occupational Safety and Health (“Cal/OSHA”) has promulgated Section 3205 of Title 8 of the California Code of Regulations, which requires most employers in California, including in the City, to train and instruct employees about measures that can decrease the spread of COVID-19, including physical distancing and other social distancing measures; and G. The Utilities Advisory Commission has met remotely during the COVID-19 pandemic and can continue to do so in a manner that allows public participation and transparency while minimizing health risks to members, staff, and the public that would be present with in-person meetings while this emergency continues; now, therefore, The Utilities Advisory Commission RESOLVES as follows: 1 available online at https://covid19.sccgov.org/order-health-officer-02-28-2022-rescission-of-face-covering-order 1.a Packet Pg. 35 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t A : R e s o l u t i o n ( 1 4 9 4 1 : C o v i d - 1 9 R e s o l u t i o n ) NOT YET APPROVED 1. As described above, the State of California remains in a state of emergency due to the COVID-19 pandemic. At this meeting, the Utilities Advisory Commission has considered the circumstances of the state of emergency. 2. As described above, State and County officials continue to recommend measures to promote physical distancing and other social distancing measures, in some settings. AND BE IT FURTHER RESOLVED, That for at least the next 30 days, meetings of the Utilities Advisory Commission and its committees will occur using teleconferencing technology. Such meetings of the Utilities Advisory Commission and its committees that occur using teleconferencing technology will provide an opportunity for any and all members of the public who wish to address the body its committees and will otherwise occur in a manner that protects the statutory and constitutional rights of parties and the members of the public attending the meeting via teleconferencing; and, be it FURTHER RESOLVED, That the Utilities Advisory Commission staff liaison is directed to place a resolution substantially similar to this resolution on the agenda of a future meeting of the Utilities Advisory Commission within the next 30 days. If the Utilities Advisory Commission does not meet within the next 30 days, the staff liaison is directed to place a such resolution on the agenda of the immediately following meeting of the Utilities Advisory Commission. INTRODUCED AND PASSED: AYES: NOES: ABSENT: ABSTENTIONS: ATTEST: Staff Liaison Chair of Utilities Advisory Commission APPROVED AS TO FORM: APPROVED: City Attorney or designee Department Head 1.a Packet Pg. 36 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t A : R e s o l u t i o n ( 1 4 9 4 1 : C o v i d - 1 9 R e s o l u t i o n ) City of Palo Alto (ID # 14589) Utilities Advisory Commission Staff Report Meeting Date: 12/7/2022 Report Type: VII. NEW BUSINESS City of Palo Alto Page 1 Title: Discussion of Costs and Reliability of Different Back -up Electricity Technologies From: Director of Utilities Lead Department: Utilities RECOMMENDATION This report is for the Utilities Advisory Commission’s (UAC) review and discussion of back-up electricity options at homes. No action is required. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The UAC expressed interest in having City of Palo Alto Utilities (CPAU) staff provide further cost and reliability information for different back-up electricity options for both everyday power outages and after major emergencies such as earthquakes. This report presents the analysis and findings evaluated by CPAU’s Stanford Summer Shultz Fellow and Stanford Graduate Student Keola Iskander comparing cost and reliability across several different technologies for back-up power for both single-family homes and multi-family homes. Any system capable of powering a home during an outage through the home’s electrical system (i.e. not via extension cords to an external battery or generator) requires involved electrical wiring and safety switches, which are critical to the safety of utilities workers when restoring power. The wiring and safety devices require special planning, labor, and materials to install, additional permitting, extensive interconnection inspections, and associated costs on all dimensions. Given the extensive time and costs required, there may be limited interest in these systems, especially with the high electricity reliability of Palo Alto compared to other utilities. Despite Palo Alto’s generally high reliability, recent outages have been a concern for some customers. Some notable takeaways from the study include that for an average Palo Alto single-family home, a 7 kW solar PV and 13.5kWh battery have a similar annualized price range to a natural gas whole house generator, and that the solar with battery system is enough to cover energy needs through a 48-hour outage in a peak summer day. The same system could have potentially higher reliability in case of fuel disruptions and cover about a third of the peak winter energy, which could be enough to cover critical winter loads in a major emergency. For context , the longest electrical outage since 2015 in Palo Alto has been 26 hours. The solar and battery 2 Packet Pg. 37 City of Palo Alto Page 2 system is also silent while the natural gas whole house generator may cause an undesirable level of noise for some customers. For a lower annualized cost, a 7 kW solar PV system with single back-up inverter for plug loads has a similar net cost to portable gasoline generator, and provides about half the back-up power most days in the summer. Solar PV with a single back-up inverter systems are silent, convenient, and enough to power refrigerators & WIFI, do not run out of fuel, and does not have to be run frequently to maintain, and does not carry the risk of carbon monoxide poisoning. More investigation is needed, but these could be a viable low -cost option for those who have solar or interested in getting solar. Uninterruptible power supply (UPS) batteries could be another option for short duration outages for those with critical medical needs. For multi-family homes, electrifying water heating as well as the heating of the community room in a specific multifamily residence was found to be cost effective when combined with a small solar PV and battery installation. The small solar and battery system would be enough to provide heating or cooling to the community room, as well as refrigeration. This shows some potential for bundling electrification of heating with solar and storag e and allow community rooms of multifamily residences to function their own emergency shelter in case of a major emergency, or during a heat-wave or smoke event. BACKGROUND A previous study conducted by another Stanford Shultz Fellow in summer 2021 found that electrification of single-family residential units did not significantly impact the resiliency of single-family homes.1 The previous study primarily investigated the resiliency value of back-up power solutions in different widespread or catastrophic disasters. This study compares additional systems and delves into costs as well as resiliency provided in different types of outages, not just widespread catastrophic outages. The UAC and Council have expressed interest in the viability of renewable gene ration for providing similar back-up at similar costs to fossil generators, for both everyday outages as well as in major emergency events. While a great deal of planning is required for wiring of these systems, proper safety switches and permitting, and thought and pre-prioritization of loads is needed, this study explores some of the roles for different renewable back-up systems and their costs, reliability, and in some case other advantages over fossil generators. The reliability is examined for everyday outages as well as potential major emergencies. 1 Impact of Decarbonization on the Resiliency of Single-Family Homes in Palo Alto https://www.cityofpaloalto.org/files/assets/public/agendas-minutes-reports/agendas-minutes/utilities-advisory- commission/archived-agenda-and-minutes/agendas-and-minutes-2021/11-03-2021-regular/id-13608.pdf 2 Packet Pg. 38 City of Palo Alto Page 3 Figure 4. Cumulative distribution of the time to restore service (CAIDI) from an electric outage in Palo Alto from 2015-July 2022. 90% of these power outages in Palo Alto are less than 8 hours, and 75% of outages are less than 4.5 hours. An additional tool which might be worth exploring for interested customers is ReOPT, a publicly available tool available from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). ReOPT is an optimization tool that that applies an estimated monetary value from avoided outages and allows users to size energy systems for resiliency.2 Furthermore, building electrification can enhance resiliency of residential homes because swapping out gas furnaces for electric heat pumps can provide heating and cooling in the summer. Heat pumps provide heating and cooling needs, along with protection from wildfire smoke and other air pollutants due to closed windows and doors during operation. Staff has assessed this tool to be underestimating co sts but it could be used to investigate relative different costs of technologies or provide rough estimates. DISCUSSION Staff evaluated seven different back-up electricity options for single family homes. Staff also modeled a multifamily residence which has minimal remaining gas appliances, estimated the net costs of electrifying those appliances, and adding limited back-up power in the form of a small solar and storage system. This back-up electricity system was sized to provide heating or cooling, lighting, and refrigeration to the community room in case of an outage. Single-Family Analysis Staff examined commercially available back-up energy systems for residential homes such as solar PV systems with partial back-up solar inverters, grid-forming solar microinverters, battery storage, whole-house natural gas generators and portable gasoline generators. Generally, solar 2 https://reopt.nrel.gov/tool/ 2 Packet Pg. 39 City of Palo Alto Page 4 PV systems will not operate during an outage due to the system being grid -tied. Thus, off-grid capable solar inverters such as the SMA Sunny Boy inverters and Enphase IQ8 grid-forming microinverters are required to provide power to homes when there is no available power from the grid. However, residences must follow proper engineering permitting guidelines and local regulations to install back-up energy generating systems. Specifically, islanding solar and/or storage systems from the grid requires an AC disconnect on the property to disconnect the back-up system from the grid during an outage, thus preventing electricity flow to the grid an d protecting utility workers servicing the power system. Annualized net costs presented include the costs and financial benefits. Capital costs of solar and battery systems will vary depending on the financing term and proportion of energy consumption offset by solar PV and storage systems. Capital cost of fossil -fuel generators assumes the cost of a Generac 9 kW Natural Gas Whole House Back-up Generator and a Generac 3.6 kW Portable Gasoline Generator with installation costs included. Paired solar and battery storage system assumes battery storage is replaced after 10 years. Solar PV systems currently do not operate when there is a grid outage, which means these systems are grid-tied. However, there are commercially available specialized inverters that allow off-grid energy generation of Solar PV systems by disconnecting (islanding) the system from the grid when an outage is detected. Two off -grid capable inverters are considered for this study, which are SMA Sunny Boy inverters and Enphase IQ8 microinverters. SMA Sunny Boy inverters are string inverters with a unique secure power supply (SPS)3 function that provides 2 kW of power to a dedicated single outlet during a power outage. Enphase IQ8 microinverters are grid-forming inverters that allow solar PV systems to continue operating on the same grid frequency in an outage event. These microinverters are capable of supplying power to a sub - panel or main-panel equal to the capacity of the solar PV system. However, it is not recommended to connect the microinverters to a main electric panel, unless paired with a battery storage system to provide whole house back-up power. Two battery storage systems were also considered for resiliency measures. These are the Tesla Powerwall 2 batteries and Enphase IQ Battery 10 batteries. Enphase IQ Battery 10 have lower storage capacities than Tesla Powerwall 2 batteries, but Enphase batteries are composed of a series of micro-inverters that allow the battery system to continue operating when a microinverter malfunctions. Enphase batteries were only considered in this study when paired with a solar system and Enphase IQ8 grid-forming microinverters. Table 1. Home energy systems considered in the study along with their rated power capacity and available capacity during an outage. Energy System Rated Capacity (kW) Storage Capacity (kWh) Power Supplied in an Outage (kW) 3 https://www.sma-america.com/products/solarinverters/sunny-boy-30-us-41-77-us-41.html and https://www.sma-sunny.com/us/how-to-explain-secure-power-supply-to-homeowners/ 2 Packet Pg. 40 City of Palo Alto Page 5 Solar + Partial Back- up Inverter 7 kW None 1.5 kW (plug loads only) Solar + Grid-forming Microinverters 7 kW None 2 kW (Back-up for 4 circuits) Stand-alone Battery Storage 5 kW 13.5 kWh 5 kW Solar + Battery Storage 7 kW / 5 kW BESS 13.5 kWh 5 kW Solar + Grid-forming Microinverters + Battery 7 kW / 3.8 kW BESS 10 kWh 2 kW 3.8 kW BESS Natural Gas Whole House Generator 9 kW None 9 kW Portable Gasoline Generator4 3.6 kW ~50kWh (delivered electric from 5-gallon gasoline tank onsite) 3.6 kW (plug loads only5) 4 Sale of portable gasoline generators to be banned in 2028 https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/news/carb-approves- updated-regulations-requiring-most-new-small-road-engines-be-zero-emission-2024 5 For modeled costs, generator is assumed to be used with extension cords plugged into a generator sufficiently far from windows and doors to not present a risk from exhaust. Portable generators can be connected to a whole house transfer switch, which requires additional wiring, costs, etc. 2 Packet Pg. 41 City of Palo Alto Page 6 Figure 1. Annualized net cost ranges of the energy systems considered in the study. Solar and battery storage have lower O&M costs, while portable gasoline generators and natural gas generators have increasing O&M costs with frequent and longer power outages. Higher electricity bill savings can be achieved with a solar and battery system. The Solar PV + Partial Plug Load Back-Up is only compatible with some solar inverters. The solar inverter and storage systems considered have different power capacities which affects the electric reliability of a home. However, most of the systems considered in the s tudy6 can supply sufficient energy to meet an average all-electric household energy demand in Palo Alto. These systems are resilient for outages less than seven hours, but the level of electric reliability provided by these systems decreases with longer -duration outages. This study also explores the resiliency of these different energy systems by varying duration of outages and household energy consumption. On an average day, an average Palo Alto home modeled as all-electric consumes 12,400 kWh/year, or 34 kWh/day, representing a 65% increase in electricity consumption compared to a mixed-fuel home. By simulating an outage occurring at every hour of the day for various all- electric residential energy consumption throughout the year, the study found that mos t of the energy systems considered in the study can supply sufficient power for an average all -electric consumption in short to medium term outages (< 12 hours), however resiliency levels can vary by household consumption, time of year, and hourly performance of solar PV systems. 6 Neither the stand-alone solar PV with partial back-up inverter for 2 kW of plug loads or the grid-forming microinverters installed without a battery are enough to cover all-electric homes even in the daylight hours of the summer. 2 Packet Pg. 42 City of Palo Alto Page 7 Figure 2. Average proportion (%) of household load met in an outage for a peak summer energy consumption scenario of an all-electric single-family home. Modeled peak summer energy consumption of an all-electric home is 27 kWh/day. Figure 3. Average proportion (%) of household load met in an outage for a peak winter energy consumption scenario of an all-electric single-family home. Modeled peak winter energy consumption of an all-electric home is 92 kWh/day. 2 Packet Pg. 43 City of Palo Alto Page 8 Table 2. Resiliency summary of different energy systems with their respective net system cost and annualized cost. Energy systems are compared by their level of reliability in different outage scenarios. High resiliency denotes the system’s capability in providing sufficient energy for normal consumption in an outage. Moderate resiliency means the system can provide some energy during an outage but requires consumer behavior modification such as appliance time-of-use or reduced energy consumption. Low resiliency signifies the system’s inability to provide adequate energy in longer duration outages and requires users to conserve energy consumption. Noise level and emissions quantified on separate scale. Planned Outage (< 6 hours) Load Shedding Event (< 6 hours) Storm Event (6 - 12 hours) After Major Earthquake ( >24 hours) Portable Gasoline Generator (Plug Load Back-up) $120 Solar PV + Partial Back-up Inverter (Plug-Load Back-up) $290 Natural Gas Whole-House Generator $630 Solar PV + Grid-forming Microinverters (Back-up 4 Circuits) $760 Solar PV + BESS $790 Stand-alone Battery Storage $1,130 Solar PV + Grid-forming Microinverters + Battery $1,240 Reliability Level Provided For: Technology Noise Level Dangerous CO & CO2 Emissions? Annualized Cost ($) Multi-family Analysis Palo Alto Libraries and community centers can become cooling centers during extreme heat events, however, in certain conditions, these facilities could be overpopulated and strained to provide adequate emergency service response. By transforming multi-family common areas to localized community centers with back-up power, the City can improve community emergency preparedness and resiliency during a power outage event. During an outage, multi -family residents can gather in the common area for heating/cooling needs, refrigeration of food or 2 Packet Pg. 44 City of Palo Alto Page 9 medical supplies, cooking, and charging electronics. Adding heat pumps to common areas provides cooling capabilities and can offer protection from wildfire smoke because it allows residences to close windows and doors in the common area. The study found that a stand-alone 7 kW-DC solar PV system has a lifetime cost of $5,700 to $15,000 depending on the inverter used, and pairing solar PV systems with a 5 kW/13.5 kWh or a 3.84 kW/10.08 kWh battery storage can increase the system cost range to $16,000 - $25,000. The estimated cost to add a 10 kW-DC solar PV and 5 kW / 13.5 kWh battery storage on a multi- family property is $11,000. Stand-alone solar PV systems were found to be a net benefit to consumers depending on the proportion of daily energy consumption from solar and equipment financing terms, however the addition of battery storage is still a net cost to consumer. Community area and shared gas appliances in multi-family residentials generally include gas ranges, water heaters, furnaces, and dryers. This study finds that electrification of two central gas water heaters, one central gas furnace, and two gas dryers removes 21 tons of CO 2 annually and has an estimated cost of $40,000. The estimated 20-year net present value of natural gas savings is $46,000 with a payback period of 17 years. Savings potential will vary depending on the multi-family property’s gas consumption. Higher gas consumption for space and water heating will generate higher savings when switching to the more efficient heat pumps and heat pump water heaters. Table 3 shows the estimated natural gas savings based on different discount rates. The majority of the savings from electrification is the switch to heat pump water heaters from gas water heaters. Switching from a gas dryer to an electric dryer was found to be a net cost because electric dryers are usually less energy efficient than gas dryers. In addition, multi-family property owners must navigate contractual agreement s with laundry machine providers to switch to an electric dryer if the current gas dryers on the property are leased. Multi -family property owners can also switch to heat pump dryers commercially available that could be more efficient than current electric and gas dryers Table 3. Net present value from 20 years of natural gas savings with different discount rates. Base analysis assumes a discount rate of 5%. Discount Rate (%) NPV of Natural Gas Savings ($) 3% $55,813 5% $46,047 8% $35,348 This study estimated that a 10 kW-DC solar PV system can provide 95% of the electricity consumption from average usage of two heat pump water heaters, one 18,000 BTU/hr heat pump, one refrigerator, one electric stove, and two gas dryers in a s mall multi-family property. 2 Packet Pg. 45 City of Palo Alto Page 10 The lifetime system cost of a 10 kW-DC solar PV system with a 5 kW/13.5 kWh battery storage is estimated to be $11,000, including the electricity bill savings following the NEM 2.0 rate and the 30% investment tax credit (ITC) for the solar and storage system. Paired solar and battery system assumes battery replacement after 10 years. With electrification savings, the multi-family property studied can reduce the cost of solar and storage systems to about $5,000 and increase energy resiliency for multi-family tenants. In addition, the solar and battery storage system will reduce the cost of electricity for property owners to a levelized cost of $0.06/kWh, which is lower than the $0.20/kWh Tier 2 electricity rate in Palo Alto and the $0.14/kWh Tier 1 electricity rate. Solar and storage costs can be greatly reduced with a different size solar system, having more favorable loan terms, or aligning the majority of the energy consumption during solar production hours. Figure 4. Estimated cost of community room and solar with battery storage installation. Total cost of electrification and adding solar and battery storage system is $4,809 after savings. The study finds that a 10 kW-DC solar and 5 kW/13.5 kWh battery storage system can maintain adequate reliability in the common area for long-duration outages. Multi-family property owners can consider partial back-up inverters or microinverters to provide additional reliability during an outage, but the decision should be weighed with the incremental cost of the system. Moreover, full back-up power to individual tenant units needs to be accurately assessed for the solar and battery system to deliver electricity to support the potential maximum load on the property. The solar and battery storage system is limited to the power output of the battery because solar PV systems will not operate in an outage without off -grid capable inverters. Thus, behavior modification may be necessary to avoid overloading the energy system. 2 Packet Pg. 46 City of Palo Alto Page 11 Limitations • Emissions and Toxic Pollutants: Natural gas generators and portable gasoline generators emit toxic pollutants such as Carbon Monoxide (CO) and Carbon Dioxide (CO2) during operation. Proper ventilation is required when operating fossil-fuel generators, and indoor use of portable gasoline generators is highly discouraged. Gasoline generators are known to produce the highest levels of CO and CO2 emissions among fossil-fuel based generators.7 Portable gasoline generators frequently cause deaths and injuries during outages from carbon monoxide poisoning. The state of California will ban the sale of portable gasoline generators on January 1, 2028. • Fuel supply: Portable gasoline generators and natural gas generators require constant fuel supply for operation. During an outage, gasoline pumps in Palo Alto do not currently have back-up power and will be inoperable, thus limiting access to gasoline supply during power outages. Storing gasoline onsite has issues with fuel stability. Natural gas pipes can be affected by earthquakes and other physical damage that disrupts fuel supply to specific areas. • Maintenance: Both whole-home natural gas generators and portable gasoline generators are meant to be run for about two hours a month to insure proper engine readiness. • Grid-powered Battery: Stand-alone battery storage systems such as the Tesla Powerwall batteries are restricted in their ability to charge from the grid if it is not allowed by the local utility, or if the battery is owned by a third part y.8 The ability to charge from the grid is set by the local utility, or installer, and the Tesla Powerwall must be in Back-up-only or Time- Based-Control mode. Tesla Powerwall batteries will not charge from the grid if paired with a solar system,9 therefore adequate sizing of solar system is required to sufficiently charge the battery storage and home consumption. Moreover, when Tesla Powerwall batteries are set to charge from the grid in Back-up Mode, the grid power charge is limited to 3.3 kW.10 • Local regulations: Natural gas generators can produce 55 – 90 dB measured 23ft (7m) away from the equipment. According to Palo Alto Municipal Code (PAMC) Chapter 9.10, exterior noise produced by machinery may not exceed six dB above the 40 dB “local ambient” sound. PAMC 9.10.060 has an exception for residential power equipment that meets a certain decibel level, at certain hours.11 Additionally, noise-producing equipment are required to be “located out of setback abutting or within 50 ft of residential properties and shall be screened from view from the residential property”. Therefore, natural gas generators may not be allowed to be installed in residential units depending on its location within the property. There are exemptions for back-up power that may allow both natural 7 https://www.natureworldnews.com/articles/47383/20210908/how-bad-are-generators-for-the- environment.htm 8 https://www.tesla.com/support/energy/powerwall/mobile-app/powerwall-modes 9 https://www.tesla.com/support/energy/powerwall/learn/combining-systems 10 https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/pdfs/powerwall/Powerwall%202_AC_Datasheet_en_northamerica.pdf 11 https://www.cityofpaloalto.org/files/assets/public/public-works/engineering-services/webpages/forms-and- permits/other-guidelines/cpa-noise-ordinance-030507.pdf 2 Packet Pg. 47 City of Palo Alto Page 12 gas and gas generators. The sale of portable gasoline generators will be prohibited in California beginning in 202812. • Plug-load only supply: Portable gasoline generators and partial back-up inverters such as the Secure Power Supply on a SMA Sunny Boy inverter13 can only support plug-load appliances. Hence, appliances requiring 240V cannot be supplied, such as heat pumps, electric ranges, electric/heat pump water heaters, and electric dryers. Moreover, outlets are located near the solar inverter or on portable gasoline generators. Thus, plug-load appliances could only be used outside the home or with an appropriate extension cord. In contrast, natural gas generators, solar microinverters, and battery storage systems can provide power for 240V rated appliances and supply electricity to a home’s back-up electric panel or main electric panel. Portable gas generators could be connected via a whole -home transfer switch if desired. • Product compatibility: Enphase IQ8 microinverters are compatible with Tesla Pow erwall 2 batteries, but installation and communication between technologies can be challenging. It is recommended to pair Enphase IQ8 microinverters with an Enphase battery system for whole-house back-up. Using grid-forming microinverters for back-up power during daylight hours only supports four critical load circuits. Using the grid-forming microinverters for whole home back-up power without a battery is currently not a recommend use case. • Sunlight: Solar PV systems can only operate when there is sunlight and may not output electricity at maximum power capacity due to sky conditions. Thus, solar PV systems will not deliver electricity to homes in the evening and in periods of little -to-no sunlight such as cloudy days or the winter season. Outages occurring at night can only be supported by battery storage systems and fossil-fuel generators. Alternative Resiliency Options Through the partnership with Office of Emergency Services, the team also identified other resiliency options to enhance residential energy resiliency during an outage. These include: • Uninterruptable Power Supply (UPS): UPS systems are lower cost short-term back-up systems that provide electricity to plug load equipment during outages. UPS systems generally have small power capacity- a 900 W system costs $250- and can last from 30 to 60 minutes depending on the load. These systems could be used to support medically fragile individuals during an outage as they can power medical equipment such as ventilators, nebulizers, or oxygen concentrators. • Solar trailers: Solar trailers are mobile solar PV arrays that are attached to trailers and can be paired with a battery back-up system. These solar trailers can be attached to a vehicle with a trailer hitch and provide electricity in open areas with sufficient sunlight. Depending on the manufacturer and solar capacity, the cost of solar trailers can range from $40,000 for a 2kW PV + 25 kWh BESS to $86,000 for a 5.6 kW PV + 80 kWh BESS. 12 https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/news/carb-approves-updated-regulations-requiring-most-new-small-road-engines-be- zero-emission-2024 13 https://www.sma-sunny.com/us/how-to-explain-secure-power-supply-to-homeowners/ 2 Packet Pg. 48 City of Palo Alto Page 13 • Vehicle-to-home EV chargers: Bi-directional EV chargers allow bi-directional capable EVs to supply power to a home back-up electrical panel, which can support households and neighbors in emergency services during an outage. Additionally, the City could create a similar pilot program in El Cajon, which utilizes electric school buses as a form of grid management.14 RESOURCE IMPACT This is a discussion item, no next steps are specifically recommended by staff at this time. POLICY IMPLICATIONS This discussion of back-up power options is consistent with the Utilities Strategic Plan, the Utilities Electric Integrated Resources Plan, Sustainability Implementation Plans, and the City’s Sustainability and Climate Action Plan (S/CAP). ENVIRONMENTAL REVIEW Staff’s discussion of different back-up power options does not require California Environmental Quality Act review, because it does not meet the definition of a project under Public Resources Code Section 21065 and CEQA Guidelines Section 15378(b)(5), as an administrative governmental activity which will not cause a direct or in direct physical change in the environment. NEXT STEPS Reliability and resiliency planning has been delegated to the Council’s Ad Hoc Sustainability and Climate Action Plan Committee, which is considering it in the context of a work plan to be delivered to Council. Next steps will be determined as part of that work plan. Attachments: • Attachment A: Presentation 14 https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2022-07-27/electric-school-buses-in-el-cajon-will-send-power-to-the- grid 2 Packet Pg. 49 Discussion of costs and reliability of back-up power options Keola Iskander, 2022 Stanford Shultz Fellow Lena Perkins, PhD, Senior Resource Planner CPAU December 7, 2022 2.a Packet Pg. 50 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t A : P r e s e n t a t i o n ( 1 4 5 8 9 : D i s c u s s i o n o f C o s t s & R e s i l i e n c y o f Figure 1. Annualized net cost ranges of the energy systems considered in the study. Solar and battery storage have lower O&M costs,while portable gasoline generators and natural gas generators have increasing O&M costs with frequent and longer power outages. Higher electricity bill savings can be achieved with a solar and battery system.The Solar PV + Partial Plug Load Back-Up is only compatible with some solar inverters. 2,000 1,500 'V). .. ... Ill 0 u 1,000 "'C Cl) N ra ::::s C: C: <( 500 0 -500 Portable Gasoline Generator 1 Solar PV + Partial Back-up Inverter (Plug Load Back-up) (Plug-Load Back-up) Annualized Cost($) Natural Gas Whole-House Generator Solar PV + Grid-forming Microinverters (4 Circuits Back-up) • • Solar PV + Battery Battery Only Solar PV + Grid-forming Micro inverters + Battery 2.a Packet Pg. 51 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t A : P r e s e n t a t i o n ( 1 4 5 8 9 : D i s c u s s i o n o f C o s t s & R e s i l i e n c y o f Figure 2.Average proportion (%) of household load met in an outage for a peak summer energy consumption scenario of an all-electric single-family home. Modeled peak summer energy consumption of an all-electric home is 27 kWh/day. % Total Loads Covered in Summer Peak 100% -~ -""O OJ !.... 75% OJ > 0 u ""O ro 0 50% .....J ro +,J ~ 4- 0 +,J 25% C OJ u !.... OJ a.. 0% 6 24 48 Duration of Outage (hours) liiiil Portable Gasoline Generator Iii Solar PV ■ Natural Gas Solar PV ■ Solar PV ■ Battery Only ■ Solar PV + Partial Back-up Inverter Whole-House (Plug Load Back-up) (Plug-Load Back-up) Generator + Grid-forming Microinverters + Battery (Back-up 4 Circuits) + Grid-forming Microinverters + Battery 2.a Packet Pg. 52 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t A : P r e s e n t a t i o n ( 1 4 5 8 9 : D i s c u s s i o n o f C o s t s & R e s i l i e n c y o f Figure 3. Average proportion (%) of household load met in an outage for a peak winter energy consumption scenario of an all-electric single-family home. Modeled peak winter energy consumption of an all-electric home is 92 kWh/day. ""O QJ I.... QJ > 0 u ""O ro 0 _J ro +-' ~ 4- 0 +-' C QJ u I.... QJ 0.. 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% % Total Loads Covered in Winter Peak - 6 24 48 Duration of Outage {hours) i;;i Portable Gasoline Generator Ii Solar PV ■ Natural Gas i;;i Solar PV ■ Solar PV ■ Battery Only ■ Solar PV + Partial Back-up Inverter Whole-House (Plug Load Back-up) (Plug-Load Back-up) Generator + Grid-forming M icroinverters + Battery (Back-up 4 Circuits) + Grid-forming Microinverters + Battery 2.a Packet Pg. 53 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t A : P r e s e n t a t i o n ( 1 4 5 8 9 : D i s c u s s i o n o f C o s t s & R e s i l i e n c y o f Planned Outage (< 6 hours) Load Shedding Event (< 6 hours) Storm Event (6 - 12 hours) After Major Earthquake ( >24 hours) Portable Gasoline Generator (Plug Load Back-up) $120 Solar PV + Partial Back-up Inverter (Plug-Load Back-up) $290 Natural Gas Whole-House Generator $630 Solar PV + Grid-forming Microinverters (Back-up 4 Circuits) $760 Solar PV + BESS $790 Stand-alone Battery Storage $1,130 Solar PV + Grid-forming Microinverters + Battery $1,240 Reliability Level Provided For: Technology Noise Level Dangerous CO & CO2 Emissions? Annualized Cost ($) Table 2. Resiliency summary of different energy systems with their respective net system cost and annualized cost. Energy systems are compared by their level of reliability in different outage scenarios. High resiliency denotes the system’s capability in providing sufficient energy for normal consumption in an outage. Moderate resiliency means the system can provide some energy during an outage but requires consumer behavior modification such as appliance time-of-use or reduced energy consumption. Low resiliency signifies the system’s inability to provide adequate energy in longer duration outages and requires users to conserve energy consumption. Noise level and emissions quantified on separate scale. 2.a Packet Pg. 54 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t A : P r e s e n t a t i o n ( 1 4 5 8 9 : D i s c u s s i o n o f C o s t s & R e s i l i e n c y o f Multifamily Analysis 40,250 57,528 4,809 (46,047)(46,922) -60,000 -40,000 -20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 Community Room Electrification 10-kW Solar PV + 5 kW/13.5 kWh BESS Total Project Cost Ne t P r e s e n t V a l u e ( $ ) Total Cost Natural Gas Savings NEM 2.0 Savings 30% ITC Figure 4. Estimated cost of community room and solar with battery storage installation. Total cost of electrification and adding solar and battery storage system is $4,809 after savings. ■ ■ ■ ■ 2.a Packet Pg. 55 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t A : P r e s e n t a t i o n ( 1 4 5 8 9 : D i s c u s s i o n o f C o s t s & R e s i l i e n c y o f City of Palo Alto (ID # 14730) Utilities Advisory Commission Staff Report Meeting Date: 12/7/2022 Report Type: VII. NEW BUSINESS City of Palo Alto Page 1 Title: Presentation and Update on the City's Electric Grid Modernization Analysis From: Director of Utilities Lead Department: Utilities Discussion This is a presentation of the Utility’s Department’s Electric Distribution Infrastructure Modernization analysis, which will identify community needs, staff needs, and infrastructure needs. Attachments: • Attachment A: Presentation • Attachment B: Presentation 3 Packet Pg. 56 Electric Distribution Infrastructure Modernization Update December 7, 2022 www.cityofpaloalto.org 3.b Packet Pg. 57 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t B : P r e s e n t a t i o n ( 1 4 7 3 0 : G r i d M o d e r n i z a t i o n ) 2 Electric Infrastructure Analysis Report •Consultant is currently analyzing the system. •Changes will be needed in the secondary system and transformers. •Consultant to provide recommendation on diversified system design loading. (Average KVA per electrified home.) 3.b Packet Pg. 58 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t B : P r e s e n t a t i o n ( 1 4 7 3 0 : G r i d M o d e r n i z a t i o n ) 3 Current Impacts of Electrification* •More customers are needing 400A and 600A panels. •Increasing number of transformer additions and upgrades. •Beginning to see more customer electric quality complaints due to overloaded facilities. •More load and generation is being added to the system without utility review (or sometimes even notification), which can result in system issues impacting customers. •Heat pump water heaters have the least grid impact of all electrification appliances and equipment –City prioritizing these for early S/CAP action * “Electrification” in this presentation refers to building and vehicle electrification, solar PV, and batteries 3.b Packet Pg. 59 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t B : P r e s e n t a t i o n ( 1 4 7 3 0 : G r i d M o d e r n i z a t i o n ) 4 Current Constraints Need for system upgrades is increasing. Transformer replacements are accelerating. Transformer delivery lead times are 1 to 2 years. Training new staff to process current requests. Backlog of infrastructure projects. Staffing and Retention 3.b Packet Pg. 60 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t B : P r e s e n t a t i o n ( 1 4 7 3 0 : G r i d M o d e r n i z a t i o n ) 5 Steps for Modernization •Analyze and prioritize feeders and substations requiring upgrades. •Initiate development of Electrification ready Secondary Distribution System. •Establish contracts to design and build improvements for each circuit and associated substation. •Coordinate marketing plans for whole home electrification with areas where the system now has adequate capacity. 3.b Packet Pg. 61 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t B : P r e s e n t a t i o n ( 1 4 7 3 0 : G r i d M o d e r n i z a t i o n ) 6 Staffing Needs for Grid Modernization Engineering and Operations Staffing •Insufficient staffing to manage existing programs due to on-going vacancies. •No staffing to manage Grid Modernization program and contracting. •Need to attract qualified experienced candidates for positions. •Development and execution of retention and recruitment plan. 3.b Packet Pg. 62 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t B : P r e s e n t a t i o n ( 1 4 7 3 0 : G r i d M o d e r n i z a t i o n ) City of Palo Alto (ID # 14677) Utilities Advisory Commission Staff Report Meeting Date: 12/7/2022 Report Type: VII. NEW BUSINESS City of Palo Alto Page 1 Title: Discussion of City of Palo Alto Utilities' Long -Term Electric Load Forecast Through 2045 From: Director of Utilities Lead Department: Utilities EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Staff prepared this report on the development of long-term electricity demand forecasts for the Utilities Advisory Commission’s review and discussion; no action is requested at this time. S taff developed three long-term electricity demand forecasts for the City of Palo Alto Utilities (CPAU) that build off long-term demand trends while also incorporating the projected impacts of industrial businesses leaving the City, data centers growing, building efficiency improving, customers adding solar, increasing numbers of electric vehicles (EVs), and customers switching from natural gas to electric appliances. The purpose of these three forecasts is to create a realistic projection of energy demand based on known trends while acknowledging the substantial uncertainty that exists around the impacts of these trends in the future. These low, mid, and high long-term forecasts are updated at a minimum every five years, as part of CPAU’s Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) development process, and will be used as the basis for electric supply procurement decision -making. Staff will continue to adjust these forecasts periodically, as actual changes in loads are observed BACKGROUND Staff updated the long-term electric load forecast to aid electricity supply planning and for use in CPAU’s 2023 electric IRP. To coordinate with the state’s 2045 goal of powering all retail electricity sold in California with renewable and zero-carbon resources, the forecast extends to 2045. The purpose of the load forecast is to create a realistic projection of future electricity demand, incorporating the impacts of known trends while acknowledging the substantial uncertainty around these trends given the time horizon of the forecast and the unprecedented technology transitions that are currently underway. This set of forecasts is the first step in designing a supply portfolio with the right fit for CPAU’s electricity needs, understanding CPAU’s overall exposure to changing market price profiles, and appropriately valuing supply resources. 4 Packet Pg. 63 City of Palo Alto Page 2 The range of uncertainty that exists around the three forecasts also will be factored into t he City’s IRP modeling for designing a supply portfolio that has sufficient optionality and flexibility, and for appropriately valuing that optionality. Staff will adjust these forecasts periodically on the basis of observed changes in load and usage patterns, and adjust the City’s electricity procurement plans to reflect these changes as well. A detailed long-term electricity forecast update is undertaken every five years at a minimum. DISCUSSION Staff develops CPAU’s load forecasts by starting with a linear regression based on past consumption history, and then exogenously incorporating the nonlinear impacts of new trends, which in this case include: new data centers planned in the next three years, the nonlinear growth component of EV load, and load growth from building electrification. These three subsets are modeled separately because staff anticipates that their future growth will far exceed their recent historical growth, and therefore the linear regression analysis will not adequately represent their future impact on total load. Linear Regression Forecast Component Staff developed the linear regression econometric forecast using a trend variable to capture load reductions caused by industrial businesses leaving Palo Alto, building efficiency improvements, and solar on homes and businesses. The recession caused by COVID-19 required an additional ‘COVID-19 recession dummy variable’1 to be superimposed on top of this linear load reduction trend variable, given the exceptional nature of the pandemic. As shown in Figure 1 below, Palo Alto’s electricity consumption is rebounding as the country exits the COVID-19 recession, and the pandemic’s impacts on the City’s electricity demand are expected to largely disappear by the end of 2023. 1 A dummy variable is a variable used in regression analysis that can take a value ranging from 0 to 1, where the values indicate the presence or absence of something. The COVID-19 recession dummy variable values are depicted by the yellow bars in Figure 1, and they represent the relative magnitude of the pandemic-induced economic recession each year. 4 Packet Pg. 64 City of Palo Alto Page 3 Figure 1. Graph of Long-term Linear Load Loss and COVID-19 Recession In the linear regression, staff captured all of the above variables into a single trend variable, which is assumed to continue until some point in the future. For the ‘mid’ forecas t, staff has assumed that this load loss trend will continue at the same pace until 2035, at which point loads will stabilize. For the ‘high’ forecast, staff assumed substantial data center growth combined with load loss stabilizing in 2030. For the ‘low’ forecast staff has modeled the current load loss trend that began in 2004 continuing all the way through 2045, since this has been a long-standing trend that includes behind-the-meter solar, customer and building code efficiency improvements, and the departure of industrial businesses. Table 1. Assumptions Concerning Long-term Linear Load Loss Trend Linear Regression Assumptions Low Projection Mid Projection High Projection Year when load decline from deindustrialization, efficiency, and solar is assumed to end 2045 2035 2030 Nonlinear Additional Load Growth Component After defining the linear regression trends, staff exogenously added the nonlinear component of load growth from additional data centers, electric vehicles, and bui lding electrification. The assumptions for the low, mid, and high cases are shown in Table 2 below. For both electric vehicle adoption and building electrification rate, the high case assumes achieving a 71% reduction in the City’s total CO2 emissions from 1990 levels by 2030. The low forecasts for both electric vehicle adoption and building electrification rate assume a linear extrapolation of the trends of the last three to five years. The mid forecasts for both electric vehicles and building electrification are an aggressive but realistic projection. The additional data center load growth shown in Table 2 is based on projections provided by customers for new data centers which 4 Packet Pg. 65 City of Palo Alto Page 4 are planned for the next three years, with the mid case assuming that 30% of t hese customer- projected load increases are actually realized, while the high case assumes 100% realization of the projected load increases. Table 2. Additional Load Impacts, Including Linear and Nonlinear Components 2020 2045 projection Additional Modeled Load Growth Actual Low Mid High Additional Data Centers, GWh - 0 (0%) 70 (8%) 230 (27%) Electric Vehicles, GWh 10 (1%) 46 (5%) 129 (15%) 165 (19%) Building Electrification, GWh 1 (0.1%) 16 (2%) 69 (8%) 91 (11%) Total, GWh 11 (1%) 62 (7%) 268 (32%) 486 (57%) Table 3. Assumed Growth Factors for Data Centers, Electric Vehicles, and Building Electrification Low Projection Mid Projection High Projection Assumptions for Additional Loads 2020 2030 2045 2020 2030 2045 2020 2030 2045 Data Centers % Additional Data Center Planned - - - - 30% 30% 100% 100% 100% Electric Vehicles % Residents with EVs 10% 21% 42% 10% 31% 61% 10% 44% 86% % EVs of New Vehicles Purchased 30% 40% 62% 30% 50% 80% 30% 85% 100% Building Electrification % Single Family All-electric 1% 7% 26% 1% 10% 87% 1% 100% 100% % Gas Packs Converted - - - - - 75% - 100% 100% % School Sq ft Converted - - - - - 75% - 100% 100% % Large Commercial Converted - - - - 5% 100% - 100% 100% 4 Packet Pg. 66 City of Palo Alto Page 5 Figure 2. Building Electrification Load Assumptions Overall Forecasts Including Linear and Nonlinear Trends The combined low, mid, and high load forecasts are shown in Error! Reference source not found., including the total expected additional data center load, EV load, and building electrification load. The EV load projections include both a linear component (capturing the roughly linear growth in EV numbers over the past decade) as wel l as a nonlinear component (projected future growth exceeding the trendline from the past decade). Neither the data center load nor the building electrification load has components captured in the historical linear regression, so these load projections are entirely nonlinear. Figure 3. Low, Mid, and High Load Forecasts through 2045 4 Packet Pg. 67 City of Palo Alto Page 6 Changes in Seasonal and Hourly Usage Patterns Staff is also exploring the changing patterns of electricity usage and have updated the hourly models to encompass these hourly and seasonal trends (higher winter and nighttime loads), behind-the-meter solar and batteries, and elevated temperatures from climate change (i.e. more air conditioning and less heating load overall). Approximately half of the projected building electrification load is expected to come from heating homes and businesses, which will result in more usage in the winter and at night. Electric vehicles used for commuting are also assumed to charge more in the evenings and at night. Staff also expects solar installations at customer premises to continue at approximately the current pace. Staff has integrated all of these changes in usage patterns into their hourly forecast models and will continue to monitor them and adjust the models as needed. RESOURCE IMPACT The updated forecasts will be incorporated into long-term budgeting and will be used to design the most cost-effective portfolio through the electric IRP. POLICY IMPLICATIONS This updated range of forecasts is consistent with the Utilities Strategic Plan, the Utilities Electric Integrated Resource Plan, Sustainability Implementation Plans, and the City’s Sustainability and Climate Action Plan (S/CAP). ENVIRONMENTAL REVIEW The UAC’s discussion of these electric load forecasts does not require California Environmental Quality Act review, because it does not meet the definition of a project under Public Resources Code Section 21065 and CEQA Guidelines Section 15378(b)(5), as an administrative governmental activity which will not cause a direct or indirect physical change in the environment. NEXT STEPS Staff will continue to refine these load projections as well as the hourly usage models and incorporate them into the IRP modeling effort and electricity supply planning. Attachments: • Attachment A: Presentation 4 Packet Pg. 68 Electric Load Forecast Discussion Lena Perkins, PhD Senior Resource Planner December 7, 2022 4.a Packet Pg. 69 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t A : P r e s e n t a t i o n ( 1 4 6 7 7 : E l e c t r i c l o a d f o r e c a s t ) Figure 1. Graph of Long-term Linear Load Loss and COVID-19 Recession 4.a Packet Pg. 70 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t A : P r e s e n t a t i o n ( 1 4 6 7 7 : E l e c t r i c l o a d f o r e c a s t ) Table 2. Additional Load Impacts, Including Linear and Nonlinear Components 2020 2045 projection Additional Modeled Load Growth Actual Low Mid High Additional Data Centers, GWh - 0 (0%) 70 (8%) 230 (27%) Electric Vehicles, GWh 10 (1%) 46 (5%) 129 (15%) 165 (19%) Building Electrification, GWh 1 (0.1%) 16 (2%) 69 (8%) 91 (11%) Total, GWh 11 (1%) 62 (7%) 268 (32%) 486 (57%) 4.a Packet Pg. 71 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t A : P r e s e n t a t i o n ( 1 4 6 7 7 : E l e c t r i c l o a d f o r e c a s t ) Figure 2. Building Electrification Load Assumptions 4.a Packet Pg. 72 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t A : P r e s e n t a t i o n ( 1 4 6 7 7 : E l e c t r i c l o a d f o r e c a s t ) Figure 3. Low, Mid, and High Load Forecasts through 2045 4.a Packet Pg. 73 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t A : P r e s e n t a t i o n ( 1 4 6 7 7 : E l e c t r i c l o a d f o r e c a s t ) City of Palo Alto (ID # 14908) Utilities Advisory Commission Staff Report Meeting Date: 12/7/2022 Report Type: City of Palo Alto Page 1 Title: Informational Update on Electric Supply Portfolio Optimization and Rebalancing Initiatives From: Director of Utilities Lead Department: Utilities REQUEST This is an informational report to the Utility Advisory Commission (UAC); no action is required. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY While the City’s total electric supply matches closely with the City’s electrical demand on an annual basis, considerable load-resource imbalances exist within the portfolio on a seasonal and daily basis. This seasonal/daily imbalance has existed since 2005, when the current 20-year Western Base Resource (WBR) hydro contract became effective. Over the past 18 years the City has balanced its loads and generation supplies by: a) entering into long-term renewable resource contracts, b) making monthly market purchases and sales to address seasonal imbalances, and c) making daily/hourly market purchases and sales to address intraday imbalances. (See Attachments A and B for graphs depicting the seasonal and daily load -resource balances.) While this strategy has worked to date, staff has been seeking ways to better balance loads and resources to minimize cost uncertainty associated with managing the portfolio, while minimizing the overall cost of electric supply. The decline in market elect ricity prices during periods of high solar production (when Palo Alto’s electric supply portfolio is in surplus) and the projected increase in night-time electricity prices (when Palo Alto’s portfolio is in deficit), and projection for these trends to continue in the future, is expected to reduce the value of the City’s supply portfolio and increase its exposure to market price volatility. In response, staff is actively exploring ways to rebalance the portfolio to minimize its market price exposure and increase its value. DISCUSSION The City’s 2018 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) included a Work Plan (Attachment C) with several new initiatives, including one on portfolio rebalancing: to “evaluate the merits of rebalancing the electric supply portfolio to lower seasonal and daily market price exposure by more closely matching the City’s hourly and monthly electric loads.” Along those lines, in recent months staff Packet Pg. 74 City of Palo Alto Page 2 has explored procuring firm, baseload geothermal energy and simultaneously selling surplus solar generation in the spring and summer months. The City currently has an opportunity to enter into a 12-year agreement to procure 10-20 MW of output from the Calpine Geothermal project, as part of a larger purchase with other Northern California Power Agency (NCPA) members. Staff is also exploring a sale of 40-80 MW of solar output during Q2 and Q3 from one or more of the City’s long-term contracts. These combined transactions will more closely balance the City’s loads and resources on a daily/monthly basis to better hedge market energy price shifts in the long-term while maintaining the portfolio’s annual energy position close to current levels. In addition to the above rebalancing strategies, staff is also exploring agreements to add energy storage systems at existing solar project sites. Such resources would help the City meet its long- term resource adequacy capacity obligations while also shifting a portion of the City’s solar generation from lower-priced to higher-priced hours. Staff has also recently evaluated procuring output from another hydroelectric project, but ultimately chose not to participate in that project, finding the contract price to be not very competitive and in view of the fact that the resource would add to the City’s already heavy reliance on hydroelectric resources. Another important initiative included in the City’s 2018 IRP Work Plan was evaluating the merits of committing to a new 30-year WBR contract starting in 2025. (Although the City has officially executed the new WBR contract, it retains the ability to reduce its share of the contract or even opt out entirely until the end of June 2024.) Staff’s preliminary analysis suggests that it may be best to retain the City’s share of the WBR contract in 2025, while continuing to evaluate the option to reduce City’s share or exit the contract in 2030 if the resource becomes uncompetitive.1 The third major initiative in the City’s 2018 IRP Work Plan was to evaluate how to best utilize the City’s share of the California-Oregon Transmission Project (COTP) when the long-term layoff of this asset ends in 2024. On this front, staff’s preliminary analysis suggests that utilities outside of the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) balancing area may be better able to maximize the value of the resource than the City. As such, staff is exploring options to further lay-off the asset to such utilities until 2039; at that point the COTP layoffs of several other NCPA members will also be coming to an end, and the City will be able to consider t he long-term use of this resource with these other members in a more coordinated fashion. Staff has issued (or plans to issue in the near future) several Requests for Proposals to competitively purchase, sell, or lay-off various resources as described above. Palo Alto has also retained Ascend Analytics to more rigorously model and analyze the economics and portfolio fit of the options staff is exploring. Staff expects to return to the UAC in the coming months to 1 Staff’s preliminary analysis of Western’s value relative to other resource accounts for the fact that Western’s output has trended downward in recent years due to the effects of drought and climate change, as well as the impact that weather-related volatility has on the City’s overall supply cost uncertainty and the need for a Hydro Rate Adjuster mechanism. Packet Pg. 75 City of Palo Alto Page 3 present the results of this analysis and share staff’s recommendations, all in conjunction with the development of the City’s 2023 IRP. STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT Staff discussed the process of developing the Integrated Resource Plan with the UAC in June 2022 (Staff Report 14279). The current report further informs the community on the progress made on this front in the past six months. In the next 12 months, staff will continue engaging community stakeholders on these initiatives via several upcoming meetings with the UAC. Input would be sought on ways to optimally procure and rebalance the City’s electric supply portfolio to cost-effectively and sustainably meet the City’s growing electricity demand. POLICY IMPLICATIONS This update on staff’s efforts to optimize and rebalance the electric supply portfolio is in line with the Utilities Strategic Plan, the City’s Energy Risk Management Policy, its 2018 Electric IRP, and its Sustainability and Climate Action Plan (S/CAP) goals. ENVIRONMENTAL REVIEW The Utilities Advisory Commission’s review of this update on el ectric supply portfolio optimization and rebalancing does not meet the definition of a project under Public Resources Code 21065 and therefore California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) review is not required. Attachments: • Attachment A: Monthly Load-Resource Balances for 2021 • Attachment B: Daily Load-Resource Balances for 2021 • Attachment C: 2018 Electric IRP Work Plan Packet Pg. 76 Attachment A Monthly On-Peak and Off-Peak Load-Resource Balances for CY 2021 Figure A-1: Monthly On-Peak Load-Resource Balance for CY 2021, with Potential Calpine Geothermal Output Included Figure A-2: Monthly Off-Peak Load-Resource Balance for CY 2021, with Potential Calpine Geothermal Output Included .. .,, ,..., • "'"' "'n, "'"" • ... " a Packet Pg. 77 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t A : M o n t h l y L o a d - R e s o u r c e B a l a n c e s f o r 2 0 2 1 ( 1 4 9 0 8 : I n f o U p d a t e o n E l e c t r i c S u p p l y P o r t f o l i o O p t i m i z a t i o n a n d Attachment B Daily Load-Resource Balances for CY 2021 (January, April, July, and October) Figure B-1: Average Hourly Load-Resource Balance for January 2021, with Potential Calpine Geothermal Output Included Figure B-2: Average Hourly Load-Resource Balance for April 2021, with Potential Calpine Geothermal Output Included 250 200 150 100 50 !00 150 100 50 '------- ' iiiiliiiiill " I i111 1 2 3 4 S 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 119 20 21 22 23 24 Values -Aw.orage of Net Resources MWh Average of Calpine GEO Estimate -Ave,ase of LOAO_MWH " ' ' ' ~ ,, " ,, ,, ........ ' ~ ~ " " ,, .. ... ... ~ ~ -I-.. I-.. r- '11111 I • 1 2 3 4 S 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 !2 23 2, Vabes b Packet Pg. 78 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t B : D a i l y L o a d - R e s o u r c e B a l a n c e s f o r 2 0 2 1 ( 1 4 9 0 8 : I n f o U p d a t e o n E l e c t r i c S u p p l y P o r t f o l i o O p t i m i z a t i o n a n d Attachment B Figure B-3: Average Hourly Load-Resource Balance for July 2021, with Potential Calpine Geothermal Output Included Figure B-4: Average Hourly Load-Resource Balance for October 2021, with Potential Calpine Geothermal Output Included 250 200 ISO 100 so liiliil 11 1 2 3 4 S 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 1S 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Values -Average of Net ResourcesMWh Average of Calpine GEO Estimate -Average of LOAO_MWH 250 200 ISO 100 ' so ,, ••••••• 1 1111 1 2 3 4 S G 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 IS 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 values -Average of Net ResoJrCRSMWh , Average of CaJpu,e GEO b11mate -Aw,raa, of LOAO.MWH b Packet Pg. 79 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t B : D a i l y L o a d - R e s o u r c e B a l a n c e s f o r 2 0 2 1 ( 1 4 9 0 8 : I n f o U p d a t e o n E l e c t r i c S u p p l y P o r t f o l i o O p t i m i z a t i o n a n d Attachment C 2018 Electric IRP Strategies & Related New Initiatives There are a number of new initiatives and numerous on-going tasks related to implementing the EIRP Strategies. These activities are supported by about six to eight CPAU staff, both from the supply side and demand-side (or customer) programs. In addition, CPAU relies on joint action agencies and external service providers to implement programs and initiatives. Supply and customer program staff also coordinates with retail rate development, distribution system engineering, and operations staff to implement programs and investments in an integrated manner. Described below are the nine strategies and eight new initiatives that are expected to be undertaken in the next three to six years. Work tasks related to on-going activities have not been called out separately. EIRP Strategies & Related New Initiatives 1. Pursue an Optimal Mix of Supply-side and Demand-side Resources: When procuring to meet demand, pursue an optimal mix of resources that meets the EIRP Objective, with cost-effective energy efficiency, distributed generation, and demand-side resources as preferred resources. Consider portfolio fit and resource uncertainties when evaluating cost-effectiveness. a. Initiative #1: Evaluate the merits of committing to a new 30-year contract with Western starting in 2025. [Recommendation on initial commitment to the UAC in early 2020; recommendation on final commitment in early 2024.] b. Initiative #2: Evaluate the merits of rebalancing the electric supply portfolio to lower its seasonal and daily market price exposure, by more closely balancing the City’s long-term supplies with its hourly and monthly electric loads. [Initial scoping assessment report to the UAC by December 2019.] c. Initiative #3: Evaluate how to best utilize the City’s share of the California-Oregon Transmission Project (COTP), when the long-term layoff of this asset ends in 2024. [Initial assessment report to UAC by December 2019, in tandem with Initiative #2 initial scoping assessment report.] d. Continue ongoing evaluation of all cost-effective distributed energy resources (DERs), such as energy efficiency, distributed generation, energy storage, and demand response. Update forecasts of DER impacts on retail sales and load shapes for use in strategic planning, rate-making, and budget forecasting. [Initial assessment to be completed in Distributed Energy Resource (DER) and Customer Program Plan for Council approval by June 2019.] 2. Maintain a Carbon Neutral Supply: Maintain a carbon neutral electric supply portfolio to meet the community’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction goals. a. Initiative #4: In addition to ensuring 100% of City’s annual electricity energy needs are met with carbon neutral supplies (on a kWh basis), evaluate the carbon content of the electric portfolio on an hourly basis, and recommend the merits of buying carbon offsets to ensure the carbon content of the cumulative c Packet Pg. 80 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t C : 2 0 1 8 E l e c t r i c I R P W o r k P l a n ( 1 4 9 0 8 : I n f o U p d a t e o n E l e c t r i c S u p p l y P o r t f o l i o O p t i m i z a t i o n a n d R e b a l a n c i n g ) Attachment C hourly portfolio is zero on an annual basis. Also evaluate the manner in which the City communicates with customers about the carbon content of the electric portfolio. [Initial staff recommendation to the UAC by December 2019.] 3. Actively Manage Portfolio Supply Cost Uncertainties: Structure the portfolio or add mitigations to manage short-term risks (e.g. market price risk and hydroelectric variability) and build flexibility into the portfolio to address long-term risks (e.g. resource availability, customer load profile changes, and regulatory uncertainty) through diversification of suppliers, contract terms, and resource types. a. This is an on-going active management strategy; no new initiatives are planned. 4. Manage Electric Portfolio to Ensure Lowest Possible Ratepayer Bills: Pursue resources in a least-cost, best-fit approach in an effort to ensure ratepayer bills remain as low as possible, while achieving other Council-adopted sustainability, rate, and financial objectives. a. Initiative #5: Investigate the merits and economics of monetizing excess renewable energy certificates to minimize the cost of maintaining an RPS compliant and carbon neutral electricity supply portfolio. [Initial staff recommendation to the UAC by December 2019.] 5. Partner with External Agencies to Implement Optimization Opportunities: Actively engage and partner with external agencies to maximize resource value and optimize operations. a. Initiative #6: Explore greater synergistic opportunities with NCPA and other agencies – such as newly formed community choice aggregators – to lower Palo Alto’s operating costs and rebalance the supply portfolio. [Initial assessment to UAC by December 2019.] 6. Manage Supplies to Meet Changing Customer Loads and Load Profiles: Maintain electric supply resource flexibility in anticipation of potential changes in customer loads due to distributed energy resources, efficiency, electrification, or for other reasons. At the same time, use retail rates and other available tools to influence customer load changes in a manner that minimizes overall costs and achieves other Council objectives. a. Initiative #7: Implement 2018 Utilities Strategic Plan Priority 4, Strategy 4, Action 2 by undertaking a competitive assessment for the electric utility within the context of the large proliferation of customer-sited DER technologies, electrification initiatives, changing customer expectations, and potential regulatory changes. Develop contingencies to address the potential for large changes in the City’s load level or load profile. [Initial assessment to UAC in December 2020.] 7. Ensure Reliable and Low-cost Transmission Services: Work with the transmission system operator to receive reliable service in a least-cost manner. a. This is an on-going activity; no new initiatives are planned. c Packet Pg. 81 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t C : 2 0 1 8 E l e c t r i c I R P W o r k P l a n ( 1 4 9 0 8 : I n f o U p d a t e o n E l e c t r i c S u p p l y P o r t f o l i o O p t i m i z a t i o n a n d R e b a l a n c i n g ) Attachment C 8. Support Local Electric Supply Resiliency: Coordinate supply portfolio planning with utility- wide efforts to support local measures and programs that enhance community electric supply resiliency. a. On-going supporting role in utility-wide efforts. 9. Comply with State and Federal Laws and Regulations: Ensure compliance with all statutory and regulatory requirements for energy, capacity, reserves, GHG emissions, distributed energy resources, efficiency goals, resource planning, and related initiatives. a. Ongoing activities in collaboration with NCPA, CMUA and other joint action agencies. c Packet Pg. 82 At t a c h m e n t : A t t a c h m e n t C : 2 0 1 8 E l e c t r i c I R P W o r k P l a n ( 1 4 9 0 8 : I n f o U p d a t e o n E l e c t r i c S u p p l y P o r t f o l i o O p t i m i z a t i o n a n d R e b a l a n c i n g )