Loading...
HomeMy WebLinkAbout2021-01-06 Utilities Advisory Commission Agenda PacketMATERIALS RELATED TO AN ITEM ON THIS AGENDA SUBMITTED TO THE COMMISSION AFTER DISTRIBUTION OF THE AGENDA PACKET ARE AVAILABLE FOR PUBLIC INSPECTION IN THE UTILITIES DEPARTMENT AT PALO ALTO CITY HALL, 250 HAMILTON AVE. DURING NORMAL BUSINESS HOURS. AMERICANS WITH DISABILITY ACT (ADA) Persons with disabilities who require auxiliary aids or services in using City facilities, services or programs or who would like information on the City’s compliance with the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) of 1990, may contact (650) 329-2550 (Voice) 24 hours in advance. NOTICE IS POSTED IN ACCORDANCE WITH GOVERNMENT CODE SECTION 54954.2(a) OR 54956 Supporting materials are available online at https://www.cityofpaloalto.org/gov/boards/uac/default.asp on Thursday, 5 days preceding the meeting. ****BY VIRTUAL TELECONFERENCE ONLY**** Join Zoom Webinar Here Meeting ID: 966 9129 7246 Phone: 1 (669) 900-6833 Pursuant to the provisions of California Governor’s Executive Order N-29-20, issued on March 17, 2020, to prevent the spread of COVID-19, this meeting will be held by virtual teleconference only, with no physical location. The meeting will be broadcast on Cable TV Channel 26, live on Midpen Media Center at https://midpenmedia.org. Members of the public who wish to participate by computer or phone can find the instructions at the end of this agenda. I. ROLL CALL II. AGENDA REVIEW AND REVISIONS III. ORAL COMMUNICATIONS Members of the public are invited to address the Commission on any subject not on the agenda. A reasonable time restriction may be imposed at the discretion of the Chair. State law generally precludes the UAC from discussing or acting upon any topic initially presented during oral communication. IV. APPROVAL OF THE MINUTES Approval of the Minutes of the Utilities Advisory Commission Meeting held on December 2, 2020 V. UNFINISHED BUSINESS - None VI. UTILITIES DIRECTOR REPORT VII. NEW BUSINESS 1. Discussion of Projected Electrification Impacts on Gas Utility System Average Rates Discussion 2. Discussion and Update on Lifecycle Emissions for Gasoline, Natural Gas and Electricity Discussion Consumed in Palo Alto VIII. COMMISSIONER COMMENTS and REPORTS from MEETINGS/EVENTS IX. FUTURE TOPICS FOR UPCOMING MEETINGS: February 03, 2021 SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION - The materials below are provided for informational purposes, not for action or discussion during UAC Meetings (Govt. Code Section 54954.2(a)(3)). Informational Reports 12-Month Rolling Calendar Public Letter(s) to the UAC UTILITIES ADVISORY COMMISSION – SPECIAL MEETING WEDNESDAY, January 6, 2021 – 4:00 P.M. ZOOM Webinar Chairman: Lisa Forssell  Vice Chair: Lauren Segal  Commissioners: Michael Danaher, Donald Jackson, A.C. Johnston, Greg Scharff, and Loren Smith  Council Liaison: Alison Cormack MATERIALS RELATED TO AN ITEM ON THIS AGENDA SUBMITTED TO THE COMMISSION AFTER DISTRIBUTION OF THE AGENDA PACKET ARE AVAILABLE FOR PUBLIC INSPECTION IN THE UTILITIES DEPARTMENT AT PALO ALTO CITY HALL, 250 HAMILTON AVE. DURING NORMAL BUSINESS HOURS. AMERICANS WITH DISABILITY ACT (ADA) Persons with disabilities who require auxiliary aids or services in using City facilities, services or programs or who would like information on the City’s compliance with the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) of 1990, may contact (650) 329-2550 (Voice) 24 hours in advance. • Informational Report on Annual Review of the City’s Renewable Procurement Plan, Renewable Portfolio Standard Compliance, and Carbon Neutral Electric Supplies for 2019 • Informational Update on City of Palo Alto Utilities Electric Vehicle Programs MATERIALS RELATED TO AN ITEM ON THIS AGENDA SUBMITTED TO THE COMMISSION AFTER DISTRIBUTION OF THE AGENDA PACKET ARE AVAILABLE FOR PUBLIC INSPECTION IN THE UTILITIES DEPARTMENT AT PALO ALTO CITY HALL, 250 HAMILTON AVE. DURING NORMAL BUSINESS HOURS. AMERICANS WITH DISABILITY ACT (ADA) Persons with disabilities who require auxiliary aids or services in using City facilities, services or programs or who would like information on the City’s compliance with the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) of 1990, may contact (650) 329-2550 (Voice) 24 hours in advance. PUBLIC COMMENT INSTRUCTIONS Members of the Public may provide public comments to teleconference meetings via email, teleconference, or by phone. 1. Written public comments may be submitted by email to UACPublicMeetings@CityofPaloAlto.org. 2. Spoken public comments using a computer will be accepted through the teleconference meeting. To address the Commission, click on the link below for the appropriate meeting to access a Zoom- based meeting. Please read the following instructions carefully. A. You may download the Zoom client or connect to the meeting in-browser. If using your browser, make sure you are using a current, up-to-date browser: Chrome 30+, Firefox 27+, Microsoft Edge 12+, Safari 7+. Certain functionality may be disabled in older browsers including Internet Explorer. B. You will be asked to enter an email address and name. We request that you identify yourself by name as this will be visible online and will be used to notify you that it is your turn to speak. C. When you wish to speak on an agenda item, click on “raise hand.” The Attendant will activate and unmute speakers in turn. Speakers will be notified shortly before they are called to speak. D. When called, please limit your remarks to the time limit allotted. E. A timer will be shown on the computer to help keep track of your comments. 3. Spoken public comments using a smart phone use the telephone number listed below. When you wish to speak on an agenda item hit *9 on your phone so we know that you wish to speak. You will be asked to provide your first and last name before addressing the Council. You will be advised how long you have to speak. When called please limit your remarks to the agenda item and time limit allotted. Join Zoom Webinar Here Meeting ID: 966-9129-7246 Phone number: 1 669 900 6833 Utilities Advisory Commission Minutes Approved on: Page 1 of 8 UTILITIES ADVISORY COMMISSION MEETING MINUTES OF DECEMBER 2, 2020 MEETING CALL TO ORDER Chair Forssell called the meeting of the Utilities Advisory Commission (UAC) to order at 4:02 p.m. Present: Chair Forssell, Vice Chair Segal, Commissioners Danaher, Jackson, Johnston, Scharff and Smith Absent: AGENDA REVIEW AND REVISIONS None. ORAL COMMUNICATIONS None. APPROVAL OF THE MINUTES Commissioner Scharff moved to approve the minutes of the November 04, 2020 meeting as presented. Vice Chair Segal seconded the motion. The motion carried 7-0 with Chair Forssell, Vice Chair Segal, and Commissioners Danaher, Jackson, Johnston, Scharff, and Smith voting yes. UNFINISHED BUSINESS None. UTILITIES DIRECTOR REPORT Dean Batchelor, Utilities Director, delivered the Director's Report. • Staffing Trends Difficulty in Maintaining Staff Recruitment Process: Since Jan, we’ve had 43 regular vacancies. We have hired 12 new employees and promoted 10 employees to fill these vacancies. As of today, we have 37 regular vacancies and 30 of them are actively being recruited. The non-active recruitment vacancies are either because they’re frozen, pending business decision (i.e. Fiber Telecom Manager, Sr. Business Analyst), or under rotation/WOC (i.e. Mgr. Electric Operations, AD Engineering). DRAFT Utilities Advisory Commission Minutes Approved on: Page 2 of 8 • Clean Fuel Reward Program - Effective November 17, all Palo Alto residents purchasing electric vehicles are eligible for a Clean Fuel Reward point-of-sale rebate of up to $1,500 at participating car dealerships. CPAU has contributed Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) funds towards this new statewide initiative, which was approved by City Council in May 2020. CPAU expects to contribute $300-400,000 annually for the next 10 years. All auto dealerships in Palo Alto will be notified of this opportunity to lower the cost of new electric vehicles. • CALeVIP - The California Energy Commission’s California Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Project (CALeVIP), which aims to develop and implement regional incentives to support statewide adoption of EVs, has partnered with five local energy agencies to launch a $55.2 million dollar rebate project for the installation of public access electric vehicle (EV) charging stations throughout Santa Clara and San Mateo counties. CPAU has committed $1 million dollars of LCFS funds to receive $1 million in grant funding for the Peninsula-Silicon Valley Project. These funds will become available to all eligible Palo Alto commercial customers to install Level 2 or Level 3 fast chargers over the next 2 years and will help install approximately 200 new chargers in Palo Alto. After a prelaunch webinar on December 2nd, applications for incentives can be submitted beginning on Wednesday, December 16, 2020. • Genie Virtual Assessment - The Home Efficiency Genie is now offering a new virtual assessment platform which provides residents with a remote evaluation of their home for energy and water efficiency. Due to the COVID-19 safety protocols, the Genie program has been unable to offer the comprehensive in-home assessments that it had been providing since 2015. For a $49 subsidized fee, this new virtual, phone and video-based platform allows residents to walk through their home with guidance from the Genie technician to review and uncover inefficiencies, comfort concerns, and even health and safety issues. For no additional charge, the virtual program also offers participants an electrification readiness evaluation as well as energy saving products like LED bulbs and a smart power strip. • Fiber Expansion Project - Staff working on the citywide fiber expansion project has completed all but one of its internal fiber needs assessment interviews. Departments assessed include: Field Operations, Libraries, Office of Emergency Services, Commercial Fiber, Information Technology, Utilities Engineering, SCADA and others. A gap analysis has been created for the City fiber network in anticipation of a full system field audit. The audit will show system maintenance and capacity needs. Fiber Management Systems, which is a network tracking, planning, maintenance and production data hub, are being compared and reviewed for City use. • Upcoming Events o Tuesday, December 8, 6:30-8:00 PM - The Importance of the Natural Environment in Meeting Our Sustainability Goals Webinar. Register here or online at cityofpaloalto.org/climateaction Utilities Advisory Commission Minutes Approved on: Page 3 of 8 In response to Commissioner Danaher’s inquiry about how many vacant positions are office positions and how many are field operation positions, Batchelor confirmed that the majority are field operation positions. In reply to Commissioner Scharff’s question regarding Level 2 chargers for residents, Batchelor explained that commercial and multi-dwelling facilities will be subsidized for installing Level 2 and Level 3 fast chargers. Vice Chair Segal confirmed that the next Sustainability and Climate Action Plan (S/CAP) community webinar is Tuesday, December 8, 2020. NEW BUSINESS ITEM 1: DISCUSSION: Discussion on Comparison of Water Rates and Average Bills Among Cities Supplied by San Francisco Public Utilities Commission. Dean Batchelor, Director of Utilities introduced Lisa Bilir who presented to the Commission. Lisa Bilir, Acting Senior Resource Planner, reported that the analysis was conducted to answer the question posed by the Finance Committee of why the City’s rates are higher than surrounding Cities who use the same supplier. Including the City of Palo Alto, there were 16 other Cities and entities that receive 100 percent of their water from the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission (SFPUC) and who are members of the Bay Area Water Supply and Conservation Agency (BAWSCA). Nine of these are cities, including Palo Alto. Residential water bills within Palo Alto are approximately 9 percent higher than the typical group of comparison utilities and commercial customers water bills are on average 4 to 7 percent higher than the typical comparison group of utilities. Among the nine cities that obtain 100% of their water from SFPUC, Palo Alto’s rates are on the low end. Six of the Cities that receive 100 percent of their water from SFPUC have less than half as many customers as Palo Alto and those Cities have higher rates than Palo Alto. Redwood City has a similar number of customers, the City of Hayward has double the number of customers compared to Palo Alto, and those two Cities are the only two Cities that have lower rates than Palo Alto. Two significant factors for the increased rates was consistently higher water infrastructure investments made by the City of Palo Alto and Palo Alto’s residential customer class has higher usage and accounts for a higher portion of the potable water usage than the residential customer class in the City of Hayward. Also, Hayward’s non-residential customer class usage has increased over the last ten years while Palo Alto’s non-residential customer class usage has decreased which puts more upward pressure on Palo Alto’s rates. In response to Commissioner Johnston’s query regarding rate tiers, Bilir explained that the City has a two-tier water rate system that is based on a measure of average use and more tiers would result in a different service rate cost structure. Palo Alto’s rate structure is based on the results of the cost of service and the same is true for the other cities where they have a different number of tiers. Commissioner Johnston suggested that the Utilities Advisory Commission (UAC) review the City’s tier system next time water rates are discussed. In answer to Commissioner Scharff’s questions regarding infrastructure and if the City is making the right investment, Bilir confirmed that other Cities across the county are underinvesting in their infrastructure. Jonathan Abendschein, Assistant Director of Utilities, believed that the City does not over or under-invest in infrastructure projects. The reservoirs and the wells provide an appropriate level of emergency response investment. He added that the amount of storage in the reservoirs is the right amount for the existing infrastructure, but the location of them in the Foothills adds to the cost. Commissioner Scharff predicted that main replacements done in the City of Hayward would cost a similar amount that the City was paying for its replacements. In response to his inquiry of do all the reservoirs need to be updated, Abendschein commented that staff continues to explore ways to make the reservoirs more cost-efficient. In reply to Commissioner Smith’s query of why the City’s commercial average is not higher than the City of Hayward, Bilir answered that the City of Hayward does have a tiered rate for their commercial customers and Palo Alto charges a flat volumetric rate. In response to his additional questions, Bilir confirmed that commercial customers pay a flat service charge depending on meter size. She clarified that some water Utilities Advisory Commission Minutes Approved on: Page 4 of 8 meters are upsized for residential uses for fire prevention and the shape of the customer’s service and as part of the cost of service study, the meter sizes were consolidated for 1” meter and smaller. There is no rate consolidation for commercial customers as there is for residential customers because commercial customers have to have a separate fire meter. The cost of service study closely studied costs and usage to set rates appropriately for each customer class in Palo Alto. Commissioner Smith believed that more investigation is needed to understand the flat volumetric rate that the City charges commercial customers. In reply to Chair Forssell’s question regarding why the comparison did not include other BAWSCA partners that are not Cities, Bilir shared that the Finance Committee had specifically requested that surrounding Cities be included in the comparison. Chair Forssell requested that a future study highlight inflection points showing the usage level above which one city’s bills become more than another city’s. In answer to Vice Chair Segal’s inquiry of why the study used the average of 9 centum cubic feet (CCF) when the City’s average is 11 CCF, Bilir mentioned that historically the average bill comparison study used 9 CCFs and that was used for consistency and predicted that the report would not change much if 11 CCF was used. Vice Chair Segal wanted to understand what the report would be if the true average volume metric was used. In response to Councilmember Cormack’s inquiry of when the report will come back to the Finance Committee, Bilir believed it would come with the Financial Plan for the Water Utility to the new Finance Committee. ACTION: None. ITEM 2: ACTION: Staff Recommendation That the Utilities Advisory Commission Recommend the City Council Decline to Adopt Energy Storage System Target and Received the 2020 Energy Storage Report. Jonathan Abendschein, Assistant Director of Utilities, introduced Lena Perkins who presented the item to the UAC. Lena Perkins, Senior Resource Planner shared that the Energy Storage Report will be submitted to the California Energy Commission (CEC) and it shows that the City has investigated the cost-effectiveness of energy storage and examined setting targets for energy storage within the City. CPAU is required to investigate energy storage every 3-years and in 2011, 2014, or 2017, CPAU did not choose to set energy storage targets. The 2020 CPAU and Smart Energy Power Alliance (SEPA) analysis showed that energy storage is not yet cost-effective for the City. For this reason, CPAU will not be setting energy storage targets for 2020 but will continue to look at opportunities and align incentives. Batteries can be used to lower carbon emissions as well as leverage distributed batteries for society and improve resiliency in catastrophic events. The overbuilding of renewables at the utility-scale was still less costly than batteries and there is no carbon price in the State of California that is enough to make batteries more cost-effective. Batteries that are installed at a residence that has solar panels are not saving the owner money. A commercial customer could use a battery to provide demand charge mitigation and they could save money, but there is no benefit to the utility because peak demand for a commercial is not in alignment with grid peak demand. Staff suggests starting a pilot project that uses electric heat-pumps as distributed thermal storage as a less expensive alternative. In answer to Commissioner Jackson’s query regarding using smart devices to leverage flexible demand response programs, Perkins explained that differing smart electrical vehicle (EV) charging stations to be used past 10:00 pm could be valuable to the utility, wholesale market, and the grid at large. Commissioner Jackson disclosed that incentive-based communications should be sent to residential customers about what should and should not be happening as a way to encourage behavioral changes. In reply to Commissioner Danaher’s questions, Perkins confirmed that Staff continues to explore any storage that is competitively priced. In the next Energy Integrate Resource Plan for the Electric Utility, there is a comparison between solar storage and other renewables in storage compared to the full share of the Utilities Advisory Commission Minutes Approved on: Page 5 of 8 Western Base Resource Contract. In regards to Assembly Bill (AB) 2514, the bill addresses both utility and customer energy storage. In answer to Vice Chair Segal’s question regarding time of use, Perkins confirmed that is it hard to communicate with customers in a way that benefits the utility on how storage is used without time of use. It is easier to make sure there are no misalignment incentives once the time of use is implemented. In reply to Chair Forssell’s queries, Perkins disclosed that she explored water pumped hydro storage and found out that there are a lot of operational and operator constraints in how the system is managed currently. Abendschein added that the amount of water storage within the Foothills is very small, but there is an opportunity to replace the pressure reducing values with a turbine to capture power. In regards to the Self Generation Incentive Program (SGIP) Fund, Perkins noted that the fund is only available to investor- owned utilities. In response to Chair Forssell’s question regarding is there a carbon price at which point storage would become effective, Perkins confirmed that $200 a ton is the price carbon would have to be for it to be cost-effective for residential, but it could be already cost-effective in terms of EV chargers. ACTION: Commissioner Johnston moved, seconded by Commissioner Jackson that the Utilities Advisory Commission (UAC) recommend that Council accept staff recommendation to adopt no energy storage targets in 2020 under AB2514. The motion carried 7-0 with Chair Forssell, Vice Chair Segal, and Commissioners Danaher, Jackson, Johnston, Scharff, and Smith voting yes. The UAC took a 5-minute break at 5:34 pm. ITEM 3: DISCUSSION: Discussion and Update on the FY 2022 Preliminary Utilities Financial Forecast and Rate Projections. Eric Keniston, Senior Resource Planner reported that it would be beneficial if the Gas Utility and Waste Water Collection Utility receive a 3 percent rate increase for FY 2022. Lisa Bilir, Acting Senior Resource Planner disclosed that a 3 percent increase would result in a $1.24 per month increase for residential customers and a $0.24 per CCF of winter average usage increase for commercial customers. The drivers for the rate increase was due to large infrastructure projects on the 5-year horizon for the Waste Water Treatment Plant as well as the ongoing Capital Improvement Projects (CIP) for the collection system. The rate trajectory will likely not require any cost cuts during the 5-year forecast period, however, there is uncertainty in the timing of treatment cost increases and cost cuts may be needed even with the 3 percent increase in FY 2022. The Alternate proposal is zero percent increase for FY 2022 and 5 percent increase in each subsequent year. Under this scenario, $3 to $4.5 million cost cuts would be needed between now and FY 2026 in order to keep reserves above minimum levels. In response to Commissioner Scharff’s question regarding residential customers averages, Bilir explained that the wastewater rate for a residential dwelling unit is a flat monthly charge and the 9 ccf average is the median. Staff continued with their presentation. A Cost of Service Study is underway for the Waste Water Collection Utility with an outside consultant and the results will be presented to the UAC in early 2021. The Regional Water Quality Control Plant (RWQCP) treats sewage from six communities and is managed by the City’s Public Works Department. The City pays roughly 36 percent of the Waste Water Treatment Fund expenses with the other five partners paying the remainder. Treatment costs were predicted to increase steeply due to rehabilitation work being done to the RWQCP and collection costs were increasing at an inflationary level. The Long-Range Facility Plan that was completed in 2012 identified key maintenance projects that needed to take place at the RWQCP. Those projects include the replacement of the sedimentation tank which costs $17 million, outfall pipeline costing $11 million, laboratory/operation center costing $59 million, and secondary treatment upgrades costing roughly $88 million. Key drivers involved in the rate increase for wastewater collection included salary and benefits costs for existing staff as well as large CIPs every other year. Utilities Advisory Commission Minutes Approved on: Page 6 of 8 In answer to Commissioner Smith’s question about if staff’s model included the projection for the sale of effluent to the Santa Clara Valley Water District, Karin North, Assistant Director of Public Works clarified that no revenue would be received from Santa Clara Valley Water District for the sale of effluent until after the Regional Purification Center is built. The City continues to make investments at the RWQCP to meet current National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) permit requirements. In reply to his inquiry regarding if the Regional Purification Center project is reflected in the year on/year off replacement plan, North confirmed that it is included in the long-range projections for the Wastewater Utility, but the City will pay only a small portion of the costs. Abendschein clarified that the orange bars on the chart showing the on/off year replacement plan are costs for the collection system, not for the treatment plant. Staff continued with their presentation and moved to the Wastewater Operation Reserve. The Wastewater Operation Reserve will be brought close to a minimum balance in FY 2026 due to capital costs needed on the collection side as well as increased costs on the treatment side. Staff moved to the Water Utility where Staff proposed a zero percent increase in FY 2022. The FY 2020-year end Operation Reserve was above guideline levels and projected to be at target levels by year-end of FY 2022. In the most recent Financial Plan, Council approved a plan to make more active use of the Water Utilities CIP Reserve. Staff projected there to be a 5 percent annual increase in the Water Utility beginning in FY 2023 to FY 2026 due to a series of wholesale cost increases anticipated to begin in FY 2023. The City receives its water from the Hetch Hetchy system and included in the water supply cost is the upkeep of that system. The City has its own distribution system within the City that is operated and maintained by the City. The supply cost for the Water Utility is roughly 40 percent of the total cost with distribution making up the remaining 60 percent. The long-term cost trends show that the distribution system cost will increase 3 percent annually and the supply costs are predicted to increase by 6 percent annually. The largest cost driver for increased supply costs is the Water System Improvement Program (WSIP) but the program benefits the City by making sure the water supply system is seismically sound. Keniston continued the presentation by presenting the Electric Utility. He reported that a $10 million loan was taken from the Electric Special Project Reserve to help the Operations Reserve maintain its target level. One $5 million payment has already been made but Staff suggested to not make another payment until FY 2022 or FY 2023 due to COVID-19 impacts. In response to Chair Forssell’s questions regarding what the Electric Special Project Reserve is used for and if there are upcoming projects, Keniston answered that the reserve pays for large projects that would otherwise need to be bond-financed. One project in the pipeline is the Smart Grid Project. In reply to Vice Chair Segal’s inquiry of if undergrounding utilities can use the Electric Special Projects Reserve, Keniston answered no. Abendschein mentioned that the UAC and Council have a policy role in setting the use of the Electric Special Project Fund and undergrounding could be included in the list of approved uses. Keniston continued the presentation and declared that reserve margins are at the minimal level. Some combination of reserve withdrawals, cost reductions, or rate increases may become necessary if sales continue to decline. Overhead costs have decreased, transmission costs continue to increase, and as renewable projects come online, the long-term generation costs should remain stable. Distribution costs drivers include medical and retirement benefits, increased CIPs due to an aging system, underground construction continues to be more expensive than above-ground utilities, and additional line crew expenses. Customer electric bills continue to be below Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E)’s bills by 34 percent. If a 5 percent rate increase is not adopted for subsequent years, the Electric Supply Operating Reserve will fall below the minimum mark. Moving to the Gas Utility, it was mentioned that the cost of maintaining the distribution system is the main driver in the rate increase. Staff recommended a 3 percent rate increase for the Gas Utility for FY 2022. If a zero percent increase were adopted, $5.4 million would be needed for as one-time cost reduction in FY 2023 and FY 2024 to keep reserves above the minimum. Staff has been seeing lower sales in the Gas Utility than was predicted. Utilities Advisory Commission Minutes Approved on: Page 7 of 8 In answer to Commissioner Johnston’s query about where the additional $5.4 million reductions would come from, Keniston predicted that there would be delays in CIPs most likely. Continuing with the presentation, Keniston noted that the Gas Utility served roughly 20,000 customers through 18,000 service lines and 205 gas mains which were all fixed costs. Roughly 60 percent of the Gas Utility cost structure is fixed cost and the other 40 is related to supply costs. Long -term predictions indicated that the utility will increase due to inflation and market-driven costs. Distribution costs were trending at an increase of 2- to 3-percent over the next 5-years. Customer’s gas bills were still falling below PG&E at 8 percent on average. In reply to Vice Chair Segal’s query about defaults on bills, Keniston concurred that delinquent payments continue to rise. Dave Yuan, Strategic Business Manager added that there have been more bankruptcy filings, but in terms of residential installment plans, staff has requested that customers call back when the local emergency has been called off so that staff knows the true outstanding balance. Keniston reiterated that gas sales have been drastically lowering than what was predicted and with a 3 percent increase, staff believed that the gas sale estimates will return to recovery mode in FY 2023. Staff continues to monitor the utility. Councilmember Cormack reported that Council had a wide-range business recovery discussion and it was discovered that it could take up to 4-years to recover economically from the COVID-19 pandemic. There was also a discussion regarding a hybrid option of employees working half a week in the office and the other half at home. Keniston continued that with a 3 percent increase for FY 2022 following by a 5 percent increase in subsequent years, the Gas Operating Reserve is projected to drop down to the minimum mark in FY 2023 and will not recover until FY 2025 and FY 2026. With a zero percent increase in FY 2022, that would result in a $5.4 million cost cut to keep the reserve above minimums. In answer to Chair Forssell’s question regarding rapid escalating construction costs, Yuan confirmed that construction costs continue to go up steadily but not as fast as it was. Batchelor concurred that construction cost increases are still taking place over all the utilities. In reply to Commissioner Danaher's questions, Keniston disclosed that staff always projects an average water year and there is a Hydroelectric Stabilization Reserve within the Electric Utility that is used during drought years. There was roughly $12 million in the Hydroelectric Stabilization Reserve. In response to Commissioner Smith’s queries, Keniston confirmed that the increase that was adopted for the Renewable Energy Certificates (REC) was included in the projections. In answer to Chair Forssell’s inquiries, Keniston restated that with a zero percent rate increase in the Electric Utility, the cost cuts would most likely come from CIPs. Bachelor confirmed that the main replacement project was already reduced in size to keep reserves at a healthy level. Another possible project to find cost cuts is to postpone the cross-bore project for another year. Chair Forssell supported a 3 percent increase for FY 2022 for the Gas and Wastewater Utilities. Commissioner Danaher also supported a 3 percent increase for the Gas and Wastewater Utilities. Commissioner Johnston announced his support of staff’s recommended increases to the Gas and Wastewater Utilities. Vice Chair Segal concurred with her colleague’s support of the increase and believed that a no rate increase would result in a delay of critical CIPs and most likely make them more expensive in later years. Utilities Advisory Commission Minutes Approved on: Page 8 of 8 Commissioner Scharff affirmed his support for staff’s recommended 3 percent increase for both utilities. ACTION: None ITEM 4: ACTION: Selection of Budget Subcommittee Commissioner Jackson, Commissioner Smith, and Vice Chair Segal volunteered to be on the Budget Subcommittee. ACTION: None REPORTS FROM COMMISSIONER MEETINGS/EVENTS None. FUTURE TOPICS FOR UPCOMING MEETINGS: January 02, 2021 Chair Forssell requested that Commissioners disclosed if the item they wish to see come before the Commission is a discussion item or an informational item. Commissioner Danaher appreciated the upcoming update on EV charging developments. In response to his question about what the Development Center presentation is, Batchelor confirmed that it will be a presentation regarding home electrification and the permit process. Commission Danaher requested an informational item each month regarding billing trends and user trends. Chair Forssell agreed with that suggestion. Commissioner Smith wanted to see a financial forecast and cost presentation on the dark fiber network. Batchelor reported that an update on underground utilities will be brought forward to the Commission in possibly February or March of 2021. Commissioner Scharff wanted staff to include in that report the total cost, possible rate increases, and timeframe to underground all utilities in the whole City. Batchelor disclosed that a previous study was done and the study predicted it would cost roughly $300 million to underground all utilities within 3 years. Another factor for underground utilities was if the City had strong wills to move to full electrification and if so, that may be an opportunity to move utilities underground. NEXT SCHEDULED MEETING: January 02, 2021 Vice Chair Segal moved to adjourn. Commissioner Jackson seconded the motion. The motion carried 7-0 with Chair Forssell, Vice Chair Segal, and Commissioners Danaher, Jackson, Johnston, Scharff, and Smith voting yes. Meeting adjourned at 6:52 p.m. Respectfully Submitted Tabatha Boatwright City of Palo Alto Utilities City of Palo Alto (ID # 11751) Utilities Advisory Commission Staff Report Report Type: New Business Meeting Date: 1/6/2021 City of Palo Alto Page 1 Summary Title: Gas Rate Impacts of Electrification Title: Discussion of Projected Electrification Impacts on Gas Utility System Average Rates From: City Manager Lead Department: Utilities Recommendation This report is submitted to the Utilities Advisory Commission (UAC) for informational and discussion purposes only. No action is required. Executive Summary This report estimates impacts to the gas utility’s system average rate in three electrification scenarios. The “system average rate” is the total gas utility revenue divided by total gas utility sales (therms). This analysis is very preliminary and high level and is not intended to reflect any final cost allocation or cost of service determinations. Underlying costs may change significantly from this initial estimation and will vary significantly for individual customers. This analysis is intended to be a first estimate to identify areas where future analysis and investigation is needed. The scope of this analysis is limited to examining utility costs and it excludes customer costs of electrification; those costs will be presented later as part of the Sustainability and Climate Action Plan (S/CAP) update. Table 1 summarizes the three electrification scenarios considered in this analysis. Scenario 1 and 2 illustrate two different paths to achieve the City’s 80% by 2030 Goal – Scenario 1 assumes all Single-family Residential (SFR) customers are disconnected by 2030, and all other customers also reduce their gas usage, meaning the remaining gas distribution system would be smaller. Scenario 2 assumes customers collectively cut back their gas usage enough to achieve the City’s 80% by 2030 Goal but remain connected to the gas utility. Scenario 3 studies the midway point to the 2030 goal: in FY 2025 while the utility is assumed to be transitioning towards electrification and SFR customers are disconnecting from the gas system. The table shows the estimated percentage by which gas rates in each scenario differ from a “business as usual” scenario in 2025 or 2030. The comparison is done based on the gas utility system average rate, rather than rates for individual customer classes. Assumptions for each Staff: Lisa Bilir City of Palo Alto Page 2 scenario are shown in Table 2, later in this report. However, each scenario assumes multi-family and business customers reduce their gas usage as well as the assumed reductions in gas usage from the single-family residential class; multi-family and business customers reduce gas usage by the amount needed to meet or be on track to meet the City’s 80 by 2030 Goal. Table 1: Summary of Electrification Scenarios Scenario Number 1 2 3 Short Description All SFR* Electrified & Disconnected 90% Reduction in SFR* Use, No Disconnections On Track to Electrify and Disconnect all SFR* by FY 2030 Year FY 2030 FY 2030 FY 2025 Estimated System Average Rate Impact -16% 52% 17% * SFR refers to single-family residential customers ** 80% by 2030 Goal refers to the City Council’s adopted goal to reduce the community’s greenhouse gas emissions to 80% below 1990 levels by 2030 This analysis uses approximate calculations and simplifying assumptions to estimate the system average rate impacts and notes several areas that will need additional investigation to give a more accurate view of the impacts. This analysis defers the issue of why or how customers will cut back or disconnect (i.e., through voluntary or mandatory requirements) and focuses narrowly on the system average rate impacts of each scenario. This report does not examine the customer-class specific impacts, which will be determined by a cost of service analysis. Background In April 2016, the City Council adopted the ambitious goal to reduce the community’s greenhouse gas emissions to 80% below 1990 levels by 2030 (80% by 2030 goal). The Sustainability and Climate Action Plan (S/CAP) serves as the road map for achieving Palo Alto’s sustainability goals. At the UAC meeting on September 2, 2020, the Utilities Department presented an overview of utility electrification impacts that provided a summary of analyses the department was pursuing to assess the impacts of building and vehicle electrification on the gas and electric utilities. On November 4, 2020, the Utilities Department presented an electrification impact study to the UAC that estimated utility cost and staffing impacts of electrification of all single-family residential customers on the City of Palo Alto’s electric and gas distribution systems. This report analyzes the system-wide average rate impacts of reducing gas use in buildings enough for the building sector to contribute appropriately to meeting the 80% by 2030 goal. According to the November 2016 S/CAP Framework,1 gas use in buildings is one of the primary 1 City of Palo Alto Sustainability and Climate Action Plan Framework, Principles, Guidelines, Goals & Strategies, November 2016, https://www.cityofpaloalto.org/civicax/filebank/documents/60858 City of Palo Alto Page 3 sectors together with mobility measures that needs additional GHG reductions for the City to meet the 80% by 2030 goal.2 Reducing emissions from buildings can be accomplished in a variety of ways. One method is to target electrification of all SFR customers. Staff has identified this as a proposed key action in the S/CAP update. Staff estimates GHG emissions reductions from natural gas could be as high as a 60% reduction from 1990 levels by 2030; this analysis assumes 60% reduction in GHG emissions reductions by 2030 from natural gas . The policy question of how much reduction to target from each sector is being examined as part of the broader S/CAP update. In this report, Scenario 1 assumes electrification of all single-family residential gas customers together with usage reductions across all remaining gas customer classes, and Scenario 2 assumes customers achieve usage reduction goals while remaining connected to the gas system. As noted above, this analysis estimates system average rate impacts for remaining gas utility customers, not customer class-specific rate impacts. The starting point for this analysis is the cost and revenue trajectory outlined in the FY 2021 Gas Utility Financial Plan approved by the City Council on June 22, 2020. Gas Bill Overview City of Palo Alto gas bills have both a Service and volumetric charge. Current and past commodity and volumetric rates are listed on the website including links to the rate schedules showing service charges. The volumetric charge depends on each customer’s consumption and has five components: 1) Commodity Rate, 2) Cap and Trade Compliance Charge, 3) Transportation Charge, 4) Carbon Offset Charge, and 5) Distribution Charge. The rate for components 1 through 4 varies monthly based on the current price of gas. More information about these charges is available on the website listing of monthly retail gas charges. The Distribution Charge together with the Service charge represent the costs to physically maintain and operate Palo Alto’s gas distribution system; compared to the other charges which represent supply (commodity) purchase costs, the costs to transport that commodity to the City’s customers, as well as regulatory compliance and administrative costs. These distribution cost components are the focus of this analysis. However, in order to estimate the system average rate impacts, this analysis uses a forecasted price per therm for each of the other four volumetric components. By using this simplifying assumption, the calculation approximates the system average rate impacts associated with electrification-related costs. However, the actual impacts will vary depending on market effects on commodity rates, cap and trade costs, carbon offset and transportation charges. Discussion Table 2 shows the assumptions embedded in each scenario alongside the estimated system average rate impact. As noted above, the table shows the estimated percentage by which gas 2 The S/CAP Framework estimated that 97,200 MT of CO2e of emissions reductions could come from natural gas use reductions. City of Palo Alto Page 4 rates in each scenario differ from a “business as usual” scenario in 2025 or 2030. The comparison is done based on the gas utility system average rate. Table 2: Summary of Electrification Scenarios Scenario Number 1 2 3 Short Description All SFR* Electrified & Disconnected 90% Reduction in SFR* Use, No Disconnections On Track to Electrify and Disconnect all SFR* by FY 2030 Year FY 2030 FY 2030 FY 2025 80% by 2030 Goal** Met? Yes Yes On Track SFR* Gas Use Reduction 100% 90% 44% SFR* Disconnections Yes No Yes Multi-Family and Business Gas Use Average Reduction 17% 22% 8% Estimated System Average Rate Impact -16% 52% 17% * SFR refers to single-family residential customers ** 80% by 2030 Goal refers to the City Council’s adopted goal to reduce the community’s greenhouse gas emissions to 80% below 1990 levels by 2030 Scenario 1 and 2 examine FY 2030 assuming the 80% by 2030 greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction goal has been met. Both scenarios assume the same total emissions reduction from gas customers collectively – enough to meet the 80% by 2030 GHG emissions reductions goal. For the purposes of this report, gas consumption in 2030 equals 14,641,509 therms, which is approximately a 60% reduction from the 1990 level. Scenario 3 estimates how many customers have disconnected and gas usage at the 2025 midway point by linear interpolation between actual FY 2020 and the FY 2030 goal. Scenario 1 assumes all single-family residential homes have been electrified and disconnected and that all the disconnections have been completed and fully paid for (or funded externally) by FY 2030. Single-family residential customer usage in FY 2020 represented approximately 34% of total customer usage. Under Scenario 1, system average rates for remaining gas system customers in FY 2030 are reduced by 16% compared to the 2020 system average rate. Scenario 2 assumes no customers are disconnected; customers remain connected to the gas utility but reduce their usage to meet the 80% by 2030 GHG reduction goal. For example, if single-family residential customers reduce their usage by 90% while all other customers reduce their usage by 22% on average, this will equate to the usage reductions assumed in Scenario 2. The costs are high in Scenario 2 because there is no reduction in the size of the gas distribution system and no associated cost savings. System average rates for gas system customers in FY 2030 under Scenario 2 would increase by 52% compared to the 2020 system average rate. City of Palo Alto Page 5 The difference between these two scenarios relates entirely to the costs associated with gas distribution and gas utility operational costs. In Scenario 1, the utility would only maintain 87 miles of gas main compared to 211 miles today. The reduction in gas line miles lowers system operational and maintenance costs, as well as the need for capital investment. These reductions are not necessarily in direct proportion to the number of miles of main reduced, but there still would be a reduction. In addition, due to the smaller size of the utility, fewer administrative overhead and customer service costs would be allocated to this uti lity. The smaller gas distribution system would not necessarily mean fewer administrative and customer service costs, but these are shared services, and could be reallocated to other utilities those services are needed by the other utilities. This could result in increased costs to those other utilities, something not estimated in this report. The significant potential rate difference between these two scenarios illustrates the need for careful study of rate and customer impacts if large-scale electrification proceeds. As shown above, widespread electrification without a “pruning” of the gas utility distribution system could increase the system average rate by 52%, which would most certainly include significant rate increases for the remaining customers across customer classes. If gas rates increased, it could incentivize remaining single-family customers who could afford the conversion costs to disconnect. Multi-family buildings and small businesses could find it more difficult to electrify. This would lead to a disproportionate economic impact to lower-income Palo Altans and renters, who are more represented in multi-family dwellings, and to small businesses with fewer resources to devote to building electrification. Thus, one result of this preliminary analysis suggests that the City should look closely at single-family residential disconnections and relative costs per class when setting electrification goals. Scenario 3 is a snapshot of FY 2025, part way toward reaching FY 2030 under Scenario 1 and part way toward reaching the 80% by 2030 GHG reduction goal. It is intended to give a rough estimate of whether there might be gas rate increases for non-electrified customers during the transition to a smaller gas system. Rate increases during that period could result from reduced revenues combined with cost savings that have not yet been realized from operating and maintaining a smaller distribution system. The study suggests that the system average rate increase in Scenario 3 would increase 17%, largely due to the cost of disconnecting single-family homes from the gas system as they electrify. This is a significant utility cost that was estimated at $6 million per year in a prior study.3 The system average rate increase could also conceivably be higher if the transition to a smaller gas utility involved a period during which many single-family homes reduced but did not eliminate their gas use. The City may wish to explore electrification incentives for users like 3 The cost of disconnection was estimated using the high-end cost estimate in the electrification impact study ($53.7 million) divided over nine years, or approximately $6 million per year. The electrification impact study can be found in the November 4, 2020 Utilities Advisory Commission Staff Report #11639 “Discussion of Electrification Cost and Staffing Impacts on the City of Palo Alto’s Electric and Gas Distribution Systems.” City of Palo Alto Page 6 renters and lower-income Palo Altans in multi-family dwellings, and for small businesses during the transition. This could be a subject for a ballot measure related to the S/CAP. Next Steps Staff will refine these estimates as needed as the City further develops its sustainability implementation plans in the 2020 S/CAP update. A cost of service study will be necessary to develop the actual rates applicable under the various electrification scenarios. Resource Impacts There are no immediate resource impacts resulting from this analysis. The costs of additional studies of this topic are expected to come from existing resources at this time. Any actual changes to gas rates would take place only after an additional cost of service study and would require approval by Council. The actual gas rates implemented would likely differ from the estimates in this report. Environmental Review The UAC’s review of staff’s estimation of system average rate impacts of the S/CAP 80% by 2030 goals is not a project under the California Environmental Quality Act, under Public Resources Code section 21065. Attachments: • Attachment A: Analysis Method and Assumptions • Attachment B: Presentation Attachment A System Average Rate Impact Analysis Method and Assumptions Scenario 1 and 2 illustrate two different paths to achieve the City’s 80% by 2030 Goal – Scenario 1 assumes all Single-family Residential (SFR) customers are disconnected by 2030, and all other customers also reduce their gas usage, meaning the remaining gas distribution system would be smaller. Scenario 2 assumes customers cut back their gas usage but remain connected to the gas utility. Scenario 3 studies the midway point to the 2030 goal: in FY 2025 while the utility is assumed to be transitioning towards electrification and SFR customers are disconnecting from the gas system. Tables 3 and 4 show the assumed changes in the cost and revenue categories that are typically used to develop gas rates. Tables 3 and 4 show the system average rate and percentage change on line 2. The paragraphs below describe key assumptions used to derive the estimated system average rate impacts. Table 3: FY 2030 Scenarios 1 and 2 Compared to FY 2030 Baseline ($000) Baseline Scenario 1 (All SFR Electrified & Disconnected)% Change Scenario 2 (90% Reduction in SFR Use, no Disconnections)% Change 1 Number of Customers 23,388 8,482 -64% 23,388 0% 2 System Average Rate ($/Therm)1.73$ 1.46$ -16%2.64$ 52% 3 Revenue Cap & Trade Revenue (Bill Offset)3,727$ 3,727$ 0%3,727$ 0% 4 Sales (Thousand Therms)25,345 14,642 -42%14,642 -42% 5 Revenue Utilities Retail Sales Revenue 47,652$ 25,064$ -47%42,403$ -11% 6 Revenue Other Revenues 7,792$ 4,234$ -46%4,234$ -46% 7 Revenue Total Sources of Funds 55,444$ 29,298$ -47%46,636$ -16% 8 Cost Purchase of Utilities 20,672$ 11,942$ -42%11,942$ -42% 9 Cost Administration 3,629$ 852$ -77%3,629$ 0% 10 Cost Customer Service 2,177$ 511$ -77%2,177$ 0% 11 Cost Demand Side Management 701$ 369$ -47%624$ -11% 12 Cost Engineering (Operating)536$ 429$ -20%536$ 0% 13 Cost Operations and Maintenance 6,816$ 2,801$ -59%6,816$ 0% 14 Cost Resource Management 559$ 352$ -37%559$ 0% 15 Cost Debt Service Payments - -$ 0%-$ 0% 16 Cost Rent 936$ 936$ 0%936$ 0% 17 Cost Transfers to General Fund 9,003$ 4,854$ -46%9,003$ 0% 18 Cost Other Transfers Out 868$ 868$ 0%868$ 0% 19 Cost Capital Improvement Programs 8,940$ 5,000$ -44%8,940$ 0% 20 Cost Total Uses of Funds 55,444$ 29,298$ -47%46,636$ -16% Table 4: FY 2025 Scenario 3 Compared to FY 2025 Baseline ($000) Cap and Trade Revenue from Auction of Allowances Cap and trade revenue from auction of allowances is segregated in a reserve for future use. It can be returned to customers provided it is not returned volumetrically. This analysis assumes that all the projected cap and trade revenue is returned to customers each year (see line 3 of Tables 3 and 4). This reduces the system average rate both under the baseline and end state for each scenario. Utilities Retail Sales Revenue As discussed further in the Reserve Impacts section, this analysis assumes there are no available funds from reserves, and that revenues must be set to meet expenses each year. Tables 3 and 4, line 5 shows Utilities Retail Sales Revenue and this is calculated in each scenario to ensure that revenues equal expenses. Greenhouse Gas Reductions In order to contribute to achieving the 80% by 2030 goal, this report assumes a 60% reduction in gas use from the 1990 level by 2030. This means that greenhouse gas emissions from the gas utility need to be less than 77,600 metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MT) which is equivalent to a total use of 14,641,509 therms by 2030 (see line 4 in Table 3). For reference, this is approximately 45% lower than FY 2020 gas consumption. This analysis conservatively applies the calendar year 2030 goal to FY 2030 to provide an approximation. Baseline Scenario 3 (On Track to Electrify and Disconnect All SFR by 2030)% Change 1 Number of Customers 23,388 16,763 2 System Average Rate ($/Therm)1.55$ 1.82$ 17% 3 Revenue Cap & Trade Revenue (Bill Offset)2,302$ 2,302$ 0% 4 Sales (Thousand Therms)26,652 21,121 -21% 5 Revenue Utilities Retail Sales Revenue 43,657$ 40,687$ -7% 6 Revenue Other Revenues 4,886$ 3,104$ -121% 7 Revenue Total Sources of Funds 48,543$ 43,791$ -128% 8 Cost Purchase of Utilities 15,982$ 12,666$ -21% 9 Cost Administration 3,189$ 2,105$ -34% 10 Cost Customer Service 1,891$ 1,248$ -34% 11 Cost Demand Side Management 623$ 581$ -7% 12 Cost Engineering (Operating)473$ 431$ -9% 13 Cost Operations and Maintenance 5,954$ 4,395$ -26% 14 Cost Resource Management 486$ 406$ -16% 15 Cost Debt Service Payments 799$ 799$ 0% 16 Cost Rent 832$ 832$ 0% 17 Cost Transfers to General Fund 7,901$ 6,283$ -20% 18 Cost Other Transfers Out 1,468$ 868$ -41% 19 Cost Capital Improvement Programs 8,337$ 12,670$ 52% 20 Cost Total Uses of Funds 48,543$ 43,791$ -10% There are many ways to get to the City’s GHG emissions goal. The City is in the process of updating its S/CAP and one of the proposed key actions is to target electrification of all single-family residences. The Utility Department has calculated preliminary cost estimates and observed that it is likely operationally possible to run a gas system that serves only commercial and some multi- family customers. For these reasons Scenario 1 examines disconnection of all single-family residential customers by 2030 as well as assuming the necessary additional reductions to contribute to meeting the overall 80 by 2030 goal. Approximately 17% overall reductions in gas use among multi-family residential and non-residential customers from FY 2020 levels would be needed in addition to disconnection of all single-family residential customers, shown in Table 5. Table 5: Gas Consumption Reduction Needed from Actual FY 2020 Levels to Meet the 80% by 2030 Goal Reduction FY 2020 Consumption (Therms) FY 2030 Consumption (Therms) Therms % MT (CO2e) Single-Family Residential 9,027,878 0 (9,027,878) (100%) (47,848) Multi-Family Residential and Non-Residential 17,582,027 14,641,509 (2,940,518) (17%) (15,585) Total 26,609,905 14,641,509 (11,968,396) (45%) (63,433) Staff’s preliminary estimate for how these additional reductions could be achieved include the key actions shown in Table 6. Table 6 summarizes the preliminary estimate of the GHG savings from each key action to add up to the total needed reduction from calendar year 2018 to 2030. These are preliminary estimates made in early 2020. Staff is working to refine these estimates as part of the S/CAP and they are included in this report for illustrative purposes only. Table 6: Preliminary Estimate of Example Group of Key Actions to Meet the 80% by 2030 Goal (For Illustrative Purposes Only) Reduction by 2030 from 2018 level MT C02e Therms Electrify 100% SF Homes 49,000 9,217,709 Electrify 100% of gas wall furnaces in MF buildings to heat pumps 5,600 1,056,350 Electrify 100% of all K-12 school facilities 3,300 627,504 Electrify 100% of rooftop gas packs on nonresidential buildings 1,100 201,500 Mandate all-electric commercial new construction projects 2,300 432,478 Reduce GHG emissions from city-owned facilities by 40% 2,700 1,291,000 Reduce GHG emissions from commercial buildings above 25,000 sq. ft. by 20% 8,100 1,520,000 Total 72,100 14,346,541 Costs That Vary By Gas Use Commodity purchase costs, transportation costs and cap and trade compliance costs vary with gas use (see line 8 in Tables 3 and 4). This analysis assumes that for each unit of customer load reduction, there would be one unit of supply cost reduction. Gas use is assumed to reduce in Scenario 1 and 2 by the same quantity by 2030 that is estimated to be needed to meet the 80% by 2030 greenhouse gas reduction goal described above. For this reason, the commodity purchase cost in Scenario 1 and 2 in 2030 are the same even though the goal is achieved in different ways. Costs That Vary By Full Time Equivalent Certain costs are allocated to each utility by percent of total Full Time Equivalents (FTE). Utilities administration and customer service costs are examples of costs allocated by FTE (see lines 9 and 10 of Tables 3 and 4). FTEs are not expected to change under Scenario 2 but for Scenario 1, a preliminary estimate is a reduction of 77% in FTE. This estimate is based on the need for one crew of 4 for emergency response and customer connections, 1 supervisor, 2 office staff, 1 FTE for management supervision, 2 cathodic protection techs, 2 meter techs for a total of 12 FTE. Some of the allocated costs (such as human resources, accounting, finance) would not be expected to be reduced for the utilities department overall as much as the reduction in the FTEs in the gas utility. These costs might be reallocated to other utilities if needed, which could increase the costs and rates associated with the other utilities. This would be further analyzed to assess the full customer impact. Scenario 3 assumes 4 out of 9 years of progress toward full electrification of single-family residential customers in Scenario 1 so it assumes 4 / 9 x 77% or 34% reduction in FTE by FY 2025. Costs That Vary By Number of Customers Communications and Resource Management costs are allocated to each utility based upon number of customers. Communications costs are a component of line 9 and Resource Management is shown separately in line 14 of Tables 3 and 4. Costs Related to Capital Investment The Electrification Impact Study estimated the gas mains by material that would be sealed if all single family homes were disconnected from the gas system. The total percent of mains the study estimated would be sealed is 59%. In Scenario 1, where single family residential customers have all been disconnected from the gas system, this analysis assumes annual ongoing main replacement costs, which make up approximately 75% of the CIP budget, are reduced by 59% (for a total reduction of 75% x 59% = 44% or $4 million per year on average) shown on line 19 of Table 3 and 4. There may be additional CIP reductions for the other 25% of the CIP budget that should be fully explored in a further analysis. However, to be conservative for this analysis, the remaining 25% of CIP other than main replacement is assumed to continue under these three electrification scenarios. Line 19 of Table 3 and 4 shows the total combined Capital Improvement Program Estimated Budget. In Scenario 3 the CIP costs increase to reflect the assumption that utility costs of disconnection are funded through revenues in level annual payments from FY 2022 through 2030. This adds approximately $6 million annually. Additionally, this analysis assumes the operations and maintenance costs are reduced by the size of the main distribution system, which is a reduction of 59% in Scenario 1 with full disconnection of all single-family residential customers (shown in line 13 of Table 3 and 4). However, a full analysis of the remaining system would need to be conducted to examine safety and engineering issues to determine the actual budget reductions. Engineering operating costs, however, would be reduced by 20% or less (see line 12 of Tables 3 and 4). This is because similar engineering oversight would be required for the operations and maintenance tasks of the new system, even if it were smaller. Many other similar costs would remain, such as responding to emergencies and annual valve maintenance. General Fund Transfer Per a methodology adopted by the Council in 2009, (see CMR 280:09, Budget Adoption Ordinance for Fiscal Years 2009 and 2010; and CMR 260:09, Finance Committee Report explaining proposed changes to equity transfer methodology) this analysis calculates the general fund transfer methodology by applying the estimated percent reduction in net fixed assets (see line 17 of Tables 3 and 4). Net fixed assets are approximately 50% distribution mains and 44% meters and services (in FY 2020). With the disconnection of all single-family residential customers, approximately 59% of the distribution mains and 37% of the meters and services assets would be abandoned. The total percentage of net assets estimated to be abandoned in Scenario 1 by FY 2030 is 46%, which is used to estimate the reduction in the general fund transfer. Scenario 3 assumes 4 years of progress toward this disconnection goal have been made out of the 9 year period from FY 2022 through FY 2030 and reflects 4/9 of the abandonment has occurred (46% x 4 / 9 = 20.4% of the net assets). This estimate uses simplifying assumptions and a full analysis that includes the age of each asset would need to be conducted. Fixed Costs Certain costs such as rent and debt service are fixed costs and do not vary with changing number of customers or size of the gas utility (see lines 15 and 16 of Tables 3 and 4) Reserve Impacts This analysis is based on the financial plan forecasts in the FY 2021 Gas Financial Plan. That plan estimated the operations reserve to remain within guideline levels throughout the 10-year forecast period (through FY 2030). This analysis assumes that no additional funds are available from reserves or transferred to reserves to supplement customer rates. As costs increase or decrease, this analysis increases or decreases revenues to match the costs in the forecasted year. For this analysis, no reserve impact is assumed from the abandonment of assets (mains that have been disconnected due to electrification) based on a preliminary accounting analysis. However, an expanded analysis of this would need to be conducted to gain a full understanding of the expected impacts on the gas utility reserves from asset abandonment. January 2021 www.cityofpaloalto.org GAS UTILITY SYSTEM AVERAGE RATE IMPACTS OF ELECTRIFICATION Staff: Lisa Bilir 2 SUMMARY OF SCENARIOS •Scenario 1 & 2 •FY 2030 •Two different paths to achieve 80% by 2030 Goal •Scenario 1 all single-family residential disconnected •Scenario 2 single-family residential cut back use by 90% but no disconnections •Scenario 3 •FY 2025 •On track to achieve 80% by 2030 Goal and disconnect all single-family residential 3 SUMMARY OF SCENARIOS AND RATE IMPACTS * SFR refers to single-family residential customers Scenario Number 1 2 3 Short Description All SFR* Electrified & Disconnected 90% Reduction in SFR* Use, No Disconnections On Track to Electrify and Disconnect all SFR* by FY 2030 Year FY 2030 FY 2030 FY 2025 80% by 2030 Goal Met? Yes Yes On Track Estimated System Average Rate Impact -16%52%17% 4 KEY INSIGHTS •Widespread electrification without a “pruning” of the gas utility distribution system could increase the system average rate by 52% •Rate increases for remaining customers (e.g., multi-family and small businesses) •Disproportionate economic impact •Transition rate impacts on remaining customers may be significant due to disconnection costs •Rate impact could be higher if many single-family homes reduced but did not eliminate gas use •The City may wish to explore electrification incentives for users like renters and lower-income Palo Altans in multi-family dwellings, and for small businesses during the transition City of Palo Alto (ID # 11778) Utilities Advisory Commission Staff Report Report Type: New Business Meeting Date: 1/6/2021 City of Palo Alto Page 1 Summary Title: Upstream Emissions Report Update Title: Discussion and Update on Lifecycle Emissions for Gasoline, Natural Gas and Electricity Consumed in Palo Alto From: City Manager Lead Department: Utilities RECOMMENDATION This report is provided for information and discussion, staff is not recommending any action by the Utilities Advisory Commission (UAC). EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report is an estimate of lifecycle and upstream1 emissions for gasoline, natural gas, and electricity consumed within Palo Alto in response to the July 2020 UAC informational request and May Colleague’s Memo (UAC Report ID # 11336). In the July UAC meeting staff discussed the merits of using total GHG emissions, including lifecycle emissions, to appropriately prioritize and incentivize the highest-impact greenhouse gas reduction actions. a.Task: Estimate the approximate greenhouse gas impact of the upstream emissions associated with Palo Alto’s electricity, natural gas, propane, and liquid fuels using both a 20- year and 100-year time horizon Global Warming Potential (GWP). b.Key Findings: To provide a sense of scale, including lifecycle emissions with a GWP100 would increase the emissions shown in the 2018 S/CAP emissions inventory by approximately 34%, 49%, and 5% for transportation, natural gas, and electricity, respectively. Staff does not recommend modifying the S/CAP accounting methodology, but could consider the total emissions, including lifecycle emissions, when calculating the impact of programs. 1 Upstream emissions are those emissions associated with the extraction, production, transportation, and distribution of products, in addition to any emissions from combustion or operations and eventual disposal. Staff: Lena Perkins CITY OF PALO ALTO City of Palo Alto Page 2 BACKGROUND In their memo, UAC Commissioners Segal and Forssell highlighted that both a) including upstream emissions and b) using the 20-year GWP2 show the greenhouse gas emissions due to natural gas consumption within the City to be much higher than how they are currently reported in the S/CAP. The Commissioners sought to prompt a discussion about whether including these additional factors would more closely reflect the actual emissions and subsequent global warming impact of natural gas transported to and consumed in Palo Alto. Upstream emissions are an important part of total emissions accounting sometimes called “lifecycle emissions accounting”. Upstream emissions reflect the overall greenhouse gas emissions associated with the extraction, production, refining, transportation, and distribution of fuels, which along with the direct emissions at their point of use constitute the full lifecycle emissions. Upstream and lifecycle emissions are substantial, and required to be accounted for in many other standards,3 but are currently “strongly encouraged” rather than required for community climate inventories.4 Climate inventories for cities typically only report direct or combustion emissions from within the community, such as the S/CAP, while upstream emissions are sometimes reported alongside adopted climate inventory goals.5 An example of lifecycle emissions accounting is the California Air Resources Board (CARB) Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) calculation shown below.6 2 While 20-year GWP is relevant to many discussions, 100-year GWP is used by both CARB https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/emission-inventory-activities and the EPA https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/understanding-global-warming-potentials. 3 For example U.S. EPA requires all upstream and lifecycle emissions to be included for the US Renewable Fuel Standard Program under the Clean Air Act, as detailed here: https://www.epa.gov/renewable-fuel-standard- program/lifecycle-analysis-greenhouse-gas-emissions-under-renewable-fuel. 4 The U.S. ICLEI Community protocol encourages inclusion full lifecycle accounting of major emissions sources, while a full consumption-based inventory is “strongly encouraged” ICLEI, 2012, p.16). 5 Several entities report some upstream emissions, also known as Scope 3 emissions, alongside annual climate inventory reporting. One example is the Scope 3 emissions reported annually by Stanford University here: https://sustainable.stanford.edu/sites/default/files/Scope3_Emissions_2018.pdf. 6 CARB uses the total carbon footprint including lifecycle emissions to reflect carbon emissions for LCFS and other programs as shown here for 2017. Page 17 https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/sites/default/files/2020-09/basics-notes.pdf City of Palo Alto Page 3 It is important to note that there are substantial upstream emissions for not only natural gas in Palo Alto, but also other types of energy consumed by the Palo Alto community, notably gasoline and other liquid fuels.7 One of the important aspects of upstream emissions is that combined with direct emissions and other lifecycle emissions, they reflect a community’s total overall carbon footprint, whereas the direct emissions are used for goal setting by local governments as they center on aspects the local government can control. Palo Alto is quite unique in that it also controls and operates it’s own municipal electricity and natural gas utilities, and therefore has more direct control over these energy emissions than a typical local government. Beyond the upstream emissions of certain energy consumption shown here, there are a number of tools and inventories available for the public to view the total emissions of the community8 or calculate their personal carbon footprint,9 all of which reflect direct emissions and all other indirect emissions. Using a 20-year time horizon for GWP With respect to using a 20-year GWP, there is currently an academic trend of reporting the 20 - year GWP impact alongside the 100-year GWP to help communicate the near-term radiative 7 https://www.eenews.net/assets/2020/04/23/document_ew_03.pdf 8 A research group from UC Berkeley has published complete emissions inventory by census block that can be found here: https://coolclimate.org/maps-2050. 9 The U.S. EPA household personal carbon footprint calculator is one of many, and can be found here: https://www3.epa.gov/carbon-footprint-calculator/. City of Palo Alto Page 4 forcing from gases which trap much more heat than CO2 during their initial decades in the atmosphere.10 While neither metric fully accounts for the radiative forcing (i.e. carbon budget) perfectly, reporting the 20-yr GWP alongside the 100-yr GWP can reflect the impacts of increased methane leakage, for example. There are a number of complications associated with including lifecycle emissions in the community’s emissions inventory at this time, or using them in utility planning or policy activities in the near term. However, communities are “strongly encouraged” in the ICLEI Community Protocol to track these emissions alongside their emissions inventory to help provide the community carbon footprint and to provide a foundation for longer-term discussions about the use of upstream emissions for these activities. DISCUSSION Staff used publicly available models to estimate the lifecycle emissions associated with gasoline, natural gas, and electricity. The Argonne National Laboratory maintains a robust lifecycle emissions model mostly centered around transportation fuels where GREET_2020 is the most current model. CARB uses the most recent version of GREET that was modified for California (CA_GREET_3.0) for the LCFS program. Staff used both models and compared the results, and since the results were fairly similar only the results consistent with the CARB values using CA_GREET_3.0 are shown below. Propane is not shown here but can be found in the CA_GREET_3.0 model. The CARB methane leakage assumptions are from the CA_GREET_3.0 model, which are consistent with the CARB numbers used for LCFS assumptions. The recommended assumptions are shown in the first column, GWP100, using the CARB Methane Leakage assumptions in order to be consistent with current 2020 CARB accounting. The modeler can also choose to use different factors for global warming potential, such as impact over 100 years or over 20 years , so as requested by the UAC the GWP20 using a 20-year time horizon is shown in the second column. Table 1. Total emissions per unit of energy consumed for gasoline, natural gas, and electricity, including all lifecycle emissions Fuel Source Total Emissions (gCO2e/MJ) GWP100 GWP20 CA Gasoline 96 114 10 An explanation of GWP by the U.S. EPA can be found here: https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/understanding- global-warming-potentials. A recent Nature Paper recommends the use of more complex calculations than the 20- year GWP to reflect the cumulative radiative forcing: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-018-0026-8. Changing to 20-year GWP as the only metric is not recommended, as explained here: https://climateanalytics.org/briefings/why-using-20-year-global-warming-potentials-gwps-for-emission-targets-is- a-very-bad-idea-for-climate-policy/. City of Palo Alto Page 5 CA Natural Gas 77 104 CA Electricity11 83 101 Table 2. Percentage increase in emissions by including lifecycle emissions rather than only direct combustion emissions Fuel Source % Increase GWP100 GWP20 CA Gasoline12 34% 60% CA Natural Gas13 37% 80% CA Electricity 22% 50% Table 3. Increase from 2018 S/CAP emissions if including lifecycle emissions14 Fuel Source Increase Above S/CAP Emissions GWP100 GWP20 CA Gasoline 34% 60% CA Natural Gas 49% 101% CA Electricity15 +5% +11% In Table 3, it is worth noting that the GREET model results showed a larger increase in S/CAP emissions in natural gas than would be accounted for just due to the inclusion of lifecycle emissions. This is because previous GHG inventories were using the emissions factors from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Second Assessment Report , rather than the most current Fifth Assessment Report, which increased the GWP of leaked methane. The combination of the most recent IPCC GWP values and including lifecycle emissions increases the total emissions from natural gas by 49% relative to the emissions reported in the 2018 S/CAP emissions inventory. It is also worth noting that a small amount of emissions is shown for the Palo Alto electricity portfolio when including upstream emissions. This is because transmission and distribution losses are not covered by carbon-free electricity purchases, which results in the small residual emissions shown in Table 3. 11 https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/sites/default/files/classic//fuels/lcfs/fuelpathways/comments/tier2/elec_update.pdf Also modeled using the CA_GREET_3.0 model for year 2020, downloaded and modeled in December 2020. 12 This is assuming 0.71lbsCO2/mile as the number used in the City’s 2018 GHG inventory, which is from the 2016 Palo Alto transportation study used in the S/CAP. 13 Direct combustion emissions taken to be 56gCO2e/MJ as modeled in CA_GREET_3.0 14 2018 is the most recent inventory that has been completed by the City of Palo A lto. The City is in the process of completing the 2019 GHG inventory. 15 Since CPAU only enters into long-term contracts for electricity generation which is deemed carbon free by the CEC, these emissions are due to transmission and distribution system losse s, which staff assumes to be California average grid electricity. City of Palo Alto Page 6 Lastly, staff used gasoline to approximate transportation emissions, since the last transportation study concluded that around 95% of the vehicle miles were using gasoline. Total emissions, including lifecycle/upstream emissions were approximately 34% greater than the tailpipe emissions reported in the 2018 S/CAP. In order to provide a sense of scale, Figure 1, below, shows ratio of S/CAP emissions to lifecycle emissions. This figure uses GWP100 for upstream emissions. Staff recommends using GWP100 for consistency since most GHG inventory protocols use the 100-year timeframe, while understanding that this metric likely underestimates the true warming impact of leaked methane. Staff considers the use of GWP100 EPA factors most effective for measuring progress, but is considering taking the GWP20 and recent methane leakage research findings into consideration when setting voluntary incentives. This is because several of the most recent vetted studies (both in research funded by EDF and others) have found much higher rates of methane leakage than the current EPA values. The EPA periodically updates their average leakage values and may integrate the recent research in the future. Figure 1. Total 2018 Palo Alto Energy Emissions, including S/CAP emissions and additional lifecycle emissions. NEXT STEPS Staff will consider using total emissions (including lifecycle emissions) for both 20-year GWP and 100-year GWP in setting incentives based on avoided GHG emissions and making other internal policy and investment decisions. RESOURCE IMPACT Updating and implementing the approximate greenhouse gas impact of the total emissions (including lifecycle emissions) associated with Palo Alto’s electricity, natural gas, and gasoline using both a 20-year and 100-year time horizon GWP will take approximately one week of staff City of Palo Alto Page 7 time once a year. Staff could consider updating every two to three years instead of annually, and simply maintaining the ratio of lifecycle emissions to combustion emissions between updates. ENVIRONMENTAL REVIEW The Utilities Advisory Commission’s discussion of the City’s carbon accounting methodology does not meet the definition of a project under Public Resources Code 21065 and therefore California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) review is not required. Attachments: • Attachment A: Presentation UPSTREAM EMISSIONS FROM ENERGY IN PALO ALTO Lena Perkins, PhD Senior Resource Planner January 06, 2021 www.cityofpaloalto.org Staff: Lena Perkins What are upstream (or lifecycle) emissions? 2 1.Emissions from extraction, transport, refining and use 2.CO2e from energy used and direct leakage of heat- trapping gases (methane, nitrous oxide, refrigerants…) 3.CA uses full lifecycle emissions for the Low-Carbon Fuel Standard program 3 Impact on reported emissions varies some between fuels Fuel % Increase Above S/CAP Emissions Reported GWP100 GWP20CA Gasoline 34%60% CA Natural Gas 48%101% CA Electricity +5%+11% 4 Next steps & timeline Utilities staff will internally explore ways to: 1.Consider total emissions when setting incentives for voluntary programs 2.Consider calculating total emissions reductions by programs and projects 3.Consider collaborating with other organizations to help community understand the full carbon impact of different actions End of Presentation Supplemental slides may follow Questions: Lena.Perkins@CityOfPaloAlto.org www.cityofpaloalto.orgJanuary 06, 2021 3 Detailed Results: Fuel Total Emissions gCO2e/MJ GWP100 GWP20CA Gasoline 96 114 CA Natural Gas 77 104 CA Electricity 83 101 Fuell % Increase From Including Lifecycle Emissions GWP100 GWP20 CA Gasoline 34%60% CA Natural Gas 37%80% CA Electricity 22%50% Fuel % Increase Above S/CAP Emissions Reported GWP100 GWP20CA Gasoline 34%60% CA Natural Gas 48%101% CA Electricity +5%+11% City of Palo Alto (ID # 11785) Utilities Advisory Commission Staff Report Report Type: New Business Meeting Date: 1/6/2021 City of Palo Alto Page 1 Council Priority: Climate/Sustainability and Climate Action Plan Summary Title: Informational Report on 2019 Renewable and Carbon Neutral Electricity Supplies Title: Informational Report on Annual Review of the City’s Renewable Procurement Plan, Renewable Portfolio Standard Compliance, and Carbon Neutral Electric Supplies for 2019 From: City Manager Lead Department: Utilities Recommendation This report is for information only. No action is required. Executive Summary The attached report (Staff Report 11677), which was delivered to the City Council on December 7, 2020, is for the Utilities Advisory Commission’s (UAC’s) information. This report provides an update on the City’s accomplishments with respect to its Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) and Carbon Neutral Plan objectives—including an assessment of the City’s electric utility emissions calculated using the recently adopted hourly emissions accounting methodology. Further, the report satisfies the reporting requirements of the City’s RPS Enforcement Program. As the report describes, the City continues to meet its objectives under the RPS Procurement Plan and the Carbon Neutral Plan, and achieved an RPS level of 37% in 2019 —exceeding the state’s 31% procurement mandate for the year. And although the switch to the hourly carbon accounting approach did not go into effect until 2020, it is interesting to note that even though the City had a net surplus of carbon neutral generation in 2019, on an annual basis, under the hourly accounting approach the City’s electric supply portfolio is found to be responsible for a net positive amount of GHG emissions: 8,085 metric tonnes of CO2 equivalent. Attachments: •Attachment A: Staff Report 11677 Staff: Jim Stack CITY OF PALO ALTO City of Palo Alto (ID # 11677) City Council Staff Report Report Type: Informational Report Meeting Date: 12/7/2020 December 07, 2020 Page 1 of 4 (ID # 11677) Council Priority: Climate/Sustainability and Climate Action Plan Title: Informational Report on 2019 Renewable and Carbon Neutral Electricity Supplies Subject: Annual Review of the City’s Renewable Procurement Plan, Renewable Portfolio Standard Compliance, and Carbon Neutral Electric Supplies for 2019 From: City Manager Lead Department: Utilities Executive Summary Like all electric utilities in California, Palo Alto is subject to the state’s Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) mandate of 60% by 2030. The City has also adopted a Carbon Neutral Plan, which led to the achievement of a carbon neutral electric supply portfolio starting in 2013 (and which was updated by Council in August 2020). In 2011, in compliance with state RPS regulations, the Council also formally adopted an RPS Procurement Plan and an RPS Enforcement Program that recognize certain elements of the state’s RPS law applicable to publicly-owned utilities. The RPS Enforcement Program requires the City Manager, or their designee, the Utilities Director, to conduct an annual review of the Electric Utility’s compliance with the procurement targets set forth in the City’s RPS Procurement Plan. This staff report satisfies the reporting requirements of the City’s RPS Enforcement Program, while also providing an update on the City’s compliance with the Carbon Neutral Plan. The City continues to meet both its RPS and carbon neutrality objectives—even after selling over 200,000 MWh of renewable energy in 2019. Background The City currently has two independent procurement targets related to renewable and carbon neutral electricity: •RPS Procurement Plan (60% by 2030): The City’s official renewable electricity goal is contained in the RPS Procurement Plan that the City was required to adopt under Section 399.30(a) of California’s Public Utilities Code. This was adopted in December 2011 (Staff Report 2225, Resolutions 9214 and 9215) and updated in November 2013 (Staff Report 4168, Resolution 9381) and December 2018 (Staff Report 9761, Resolution 9802)—and is slated to be updated again in December 2020 (Staff Report 11650) . The Attachment A December 07, 2020 Page 2 of 4 (ID # 11677) pending update to the RPS Procurement Plan is designed to bring it into alignment with the state’s 60% RPS law (SB 100), which was signed into law in 2018.1 The RPS Procurement Plan and RPS Enforcement Program complement each other: the Procurement Plan establishes official procurement targets, while the Enforcement Program specifies the reporting and monitoring that is required of the Utilities Director while working to achieve those targets. The procurement requirement in the version of the City’s RPS Procurement Plan being considered by Council in December is that the City acquire renewable electricity supplies equal to 60% of retail sales by 2030, which is in line with the state’s current RPS mandate2. The RPS Procurement Plan also contains interim targets for six separate periods (2011-2013, 2014-2016, 2017-2020, 2021-2024, 2025-2027, and 2028-2030). •Carbon Neutral Plan (100% Carbon Neutral Electricity by 2013): The Carbon Neutral Plan was adopted in March 2013 (Staff Report 3550, Resolution 9322) and updated in August 2020 (Staff Report 11556, Resolution 9913), and requires that the City procure a carbon neutral electric supply portfolio starting in calendar year (CY) 2013. In general, this goal is expected to be achieved primarily through purchases made under the City’s long-term renewable power purchase agreements (PPAs) and output from its hydroelectric resources. However, when the City Council approved an update to the Carbon Neutral Plan in August 2020, they also approved a new procurement strategy whereby the City does not keep all of the output of its long-term, in-state PPAs, but instead exchanges that output for less expensive out-of-state renewable generation. Discussion The City continues to meet its objectives under the RPS Procurement Plan and the Carbon Neutral Plan, and achieved an RPS level of 37% in 2019—exceeding the state’s 31% procurement mandate for the year. Below is a summary of CPAU’s progress toward satisfying its renewable energy and carbon neutral procurement targets, with additional detail provided in Exhibit A. RPS Procurement Plan Compliance In CY 2019, the City initially received 535,145 MWh of renewable energy through its long-term contracts for wind, solar, landfill gas, and small hydro resources (which represents 62.1% of the City’s total retail sales for that period). Additionally, the City received 665,359 MWh of large hydroelectric generation (representing 77.2% of the City’s total retail sales), which is not classified as eligible renewable generation by the state. Because of the favorable hydro conditions for the year the City had a large surplus of carbon neutral generation overall, and, 1 Although SB 100 became law in 2018, the California Energy Commission (CEC) has yet to formally adopt regulations implementing the new law. The pending update to the City’s RPS Procurement Plan is based on the current RPS regulations, which CEC adopted on Oct. 14, 2015 with an effective date of April 12, 2016; however, it is possible that the City will need to update its RPS Procurement Plan again in 2021 if the adopted RPS regulations differ significantly from the draft version of the regulations. 2 CA Public Utilities Code Sec. 330.3(c)(2). December 07, 2020 Page 3 of 4 (ID # 11677) based on feedback from the Utilities Advisory Commission, staff decided to sell the majority of this surplus from the renewable energy supplies (because this generation is more valuable to other utilities than the large hydro generation). Ultimately the City sold 216,110 MWh of renewable energy supplies, yielding $3.34 million in sales revenue. Accounting for these sales, the City’s net renewable energy supplies totaled 319,035 MWh, which represents 37.0% of the City’s total retail sales for 2019. For CY 2020, staff has currently contracted to sell about 324,000 MWh of renewable generation, and projects that the City’s remaining renewable electricity supplies from in-state resources will equal 26.0% of retail sales. However, after accounting for the purchase of out-of- state renewable supplies, the City’s total renewable electricity supplies are projected to equal 55.4% of retail sales. In accordance with the state’s RPS Program requirements, CPAU’s Procurement Plan develops a renewable electric supply portfolio that balances environmental goals with system reliability while maintaining stable and low retail electric rates. The state RPS program requires retail electricity suppliers like CPAU to procure progressively larger renewable electricity supplies across a series of separate multi-year Compliance Periods. CPAU’s procurement targets, as well as its actual/projected procurement volumes and RPS levels, for the first three Compliance Periods are summarized in Table 1 below. For these three compliance periods, the City has increasingly purchased more renewable electricity supplies than the respective procurement targets. Table 1: RPS Compliance Period Procurement Targets and Actual/Projected Procurement RPS Compliance Period Years Retail Sales (MWh) Procurement Target (MWh) Actual/Projected Procurement* (MWh) Target % of Retail Sales Actual/Projected % of Retail Sales 1 2011-2013 2,837,773 567,555 607,740 20% 21.4% 2 2014-2016 2,801,056 605,949 826,855 21.7% 29.5% 3 2017-2020 3,458,925 1,033,933 1,667,716 30% 48.2% TOTALS 9,097,754 2,207,437 3,102,311 34.1% *Procurement totals for Compliance Periods 1 and 2 are actuals; procurement totals for Compliance Period 3 are a combination of actual data (for 2017-2019) and projected data (for 2020), and account for executed sales of 324,000 MWh of renewable supplies for 2020. Carbon Neutral Plan In CY 2019, CPAU achieved its goal, set forth in the Carbon Neutral Plan, of an electric supply portfolio with zero net greenhouse (GHG) emissions for the sixth consecutive year, without the need to purchase unbundled renewable energy certificates (RECs) in the market. Carbon neutrality was achieved in CY 2019 through existing hydro and renewable generation (wind, solar, and landfill gas). Due to favorable hydro conditions, the City had a large surplus of energy, allowing for the sale of 216,000 MWh of renewable energy while still maintaining a carbon neutral supply portfolio (when evaluated using an annual carbon accounting framework). December 07, 2020 Page 4 of 4 (ID # 11677) When the City Council approved an update to the Carbon Neutral Plan in August 2020, the primary change was to adopt an hourly carbon accounting methodology as the basis for determining whether the City has met its carbon neutrality objective. Although this change did not apply to the City’s electric supply portfolio for CY 2019, it is interesting to note how the City’s supply portfolio would have fared under this accounting framework. Under the annual accounting approach, the City had an overall surplus of 85,569 MWh of carbon neutral generation compared to its load (equal to 9.4% total load), and thus substantially exceeded the carbon neutrality standard. However, under the hourly carbon accounting approach,3 the City’s electric supply portfolio is found to be responsible for a net positive amount of GHG emissions for CY 2019: 8,085 metric tonnes of CO2 equivalent. For CY 2020, slightly below average hydro conditions are expected to result in about 46% of the City’s electric supply needs being supplied by hydroelectric resources, with the remainder coming from non-hydro renewable energy resources (including purchases of out-of-state unbundled RECs). Policy Implications This report implements Sections 4 and 5 of the City’s RPS Enforcement Program, which require an annual review of the Electric Utility’s compliance with the CPAU RPS Procurement Plan to ensure that CPAU is making reasonable progress toward meeting the compliance obligations established in the CPAU RPS Procurement Plan. Environmental Review The Council’s review of this report does not meet the definition of a “project” pursuant to Public Resources Code Section 21065, thus California Environmental Quality Act review is not required. Attachments: •Exhibit A: Renewable and Carbon Neutral Electricity Supply Procurement Details (PDF) 3 The City’s hourly carbon accounting methodology entails calculating the City’s net surplus or deficit carbon neutral supply position relative to its load in every hour of the year. The grid average electricity emissions intensity for each hour is then applied to each of these hourly surpluses or deficits to yield a net emissions contribution (or reduction) that the City’s electric supply portfolio is responsible for in that hour. These hourly emissions totals are then summed across the entire year to yield the City’s annual emissions total for the year. Renewable and Carbon Neutral Electricity Supply Procurement Details Renewable Energy Goals In CY 2019, the City initially received 535,145 MWh of renewable energy through its long-term contracts for wind, solar, landfill gas, and small hydro resources (which represents 62.1% of the City’s total retail sales for that period). After accounting for the sale of 216,110 MWh of this generation, the City’s net renewable energy supplies totaled 319,035 MWh, which represents 37.0% of the City’s total retail sales for 2019. For CY 2020, staff has currently contracted to sell about 324,000 MWh of renewable generation, and projects that City’s remaining renewable electricity supplies from in-state resources will equal 26.0% of retail sales. However, after accounting for the purchase of out-of-state renewable supplies, the City’s total renewable electricity supplies are projected to equal 55.4% of retail sales. Table 1 shows the renewable resources currently under contract, the status of the projects, their annual output in Gigawatt-hours (GWh), and the rate impact of each resource that was calculated at the time it was added to the electric supply portfolio. Table 1: Summary of Contracted Renewable Electricity Resources Resource Delivery Begins Delivery Ends Annual Generation (GWh) Rate Impact (¢/kWh) Small Hydro Before 2000 N/A 10.0 0 High Winds Dec. 2004 Jun. 2028 42.7 0.012 Shiloh I Wind Jun. 2006 Dec. 2021 57.3 (0.041) Santa Cruz Landfill Gas (LFG) Feb. 2006 Feb. 2026 9.0 0.003 Ox Mountain LFG Apr. 2009 Mar. 2029 42.5 (0.040) Keller Canyon LFG Aug. 2009 Jul. 2029 13.8 (0.020) Johnson Canyon LFG May 2013 May 2033 10.4 0.064 San Joaquin LFG Apr. 2014 Apr. 2034 27.5 0.127 Kettleman Solar Aug. 2015 Aug. 2040 53.5 0.099 Hayworth Solar Dec. 2015 Dec. 2042 63.7 0.026 Frontier Solar Jul. 2016 Jul. 2046 52.5 0.011 Elevation Solar C Dec. 2016 Dec. 2041 100.8 (0.044) W. Antelope Blue Sky Ranch B Dec. 2016 Dec. 2041 50.4 (0.002) CLEAN Program Projects Varies Varies 5.0 0.027 Total Operating Resources 539.0 0.223 Golden Fields Solar III Jan. 2023 Dec. 2047 75.0 (0.056) Total Non-Operating Resources 75.0 (0.056) Total Committed Resources 614.0 0.168 EXHIBIT A RPS Procurement Plan Compliance Annually, the Utilities Director reviews CPAU’s RPS Procurement Plan to determine compliance with the state’s RPS Program. Under the state RPS Program, the California Energy Commission (CEC) developed portfolio balancing requirements, which dictate what percentage of renewable procurement must come from resources interconnected to a California Balancing Area (as opposed to an out-of-state transmission grid balancing area). These requirements also determine the eligibility criteria for renewable resource products as determined by their eligible Portfolio Content Categories1, found in the CEC Enforcement Procedure RPS (CA Code of Regulations, Title 20, Section 3203). The CEC Enforcement Procedures apply to publicly owned utilities (POUs), such as CPAU. In accordance with the state’s RPS Program requirements, CPAU’s Procurement Plan develops a renewable electric supply portfolio that balances environmental goals with system reliability while maintaining stable and low retail electric rates. The state RPS program requires retail electricity suppliers like CPAU to procure progressively larger renewable electricity supplies across three separate Compliance Periods, as outlined below. 1. Compliance Period 1 (2011 – 2013) For Compliance Period 1 (2011-2013) retail electricity providers were required to procure renewable electricity supplies equaling 20% of total retail sales, which CPAU did. In this period, CPAU supplied 21.4% of the City’s retail electricity sales volumes from renewable energy sources. The procurement results for Compliance Period 1 are displayed in Table 2 below: Table 2: Compliance Period 1 RPS Procurement Details Year Retail Sales (MWh) Procurement Target (MWh)* Actual Procurement (MWh) % of Retail Sales 2011 949,517 189,903 207,974 21.9% 2012 935,021 187,004 200,621 21.5% 2013 953,235 190,647 199,145 20.9% TOTAL 2,837,773 567,555 607,740 21.4% * Annual procurement targets are “soft” targets. The RPS Procurement Plan requires that the target be met for the compliance period as a whole, not in each year of the compliance period. All of the renewable energy procured in Compliance Period 1 came from resources whose contracts were executed before June 1, 2010. The RPS Procurement Plan considers these contracts “grandfathered,” and since all of the renewable energy procurement for Compliance Period 1 was from these types of contracts, there was no need to meet the Portfolio Balancing Requirements included in Section B.4 of the RPS Procurement Plan. 1 RPS Portfolio Content Categories are defined as follows: Category 1 is energy and RECs delivered to a California Balancing Authority (CBA) without substituting electricity from another source, Category 2 is energy and RECs that cannot be delivered to a CBA without substituting electricity from another source, and Category 3 is unbundled RECs. 2. Compliance Period 2 (2014 – 2016) In Compliance Period 2, renewable procurement must equal or exceed the sum of the three annual RPS procurement targets described by the following equations: 2014 RPS Target = 20% × (Retail Sales in 2014) 2015 RPS Target = 20% × (Retail Sales in 2015) 2016 RPS Target = 25% × (Retail Sales in 2016) As shown in Table 3 below, CPAU easily exceeded this mandated procurement level as well. Renewable electricity procurement equaled 29.5% of retail sales for Compliance Period 2 overall. Table 3: Compliance Period 2 RPS Procurement Details Year Retail Sales (MWh) Procurement Target (MWh)* Actual Procurement (MWh) % of Retail Sales 2014 953,386 190,677 210,250 22.1% 2015 932,922 186,584 241,262 25.9% 2016 914,748 228,687 375,343 41.0% TOTAL 2,801,056 605,949 826,855 29.5% * Annual procurement targets are “soft” targets. The RPS Procurement Plan requires that the target be met for the compliance period as a whole, not in each year of the compliance period. Also in Compliance Period 2, the RPS Portfolio Balancing Requirements applied to the procurement levels described above. The specific requirements are: (1) CPAU must procure at least 65% of its renewable supplies from Portfolio Content Category 1, and (2) no more than 15% from Portfolio Content Category 3 (unbundled RECs). CPAU easily met the Compliance Period 2 overall procurement requirement and the RPS Portfolio Balancing Requirement, as five new solar projects came online in 2015 and 2016, and all of these projects are considered Portfolio Content Category 1 resources. 3. Compliance Period 3 (2017 – 2020) For Compliance Period 3, CPAU is subject to “soft” targets to supply at least 27% of its retail sales volume from renewable resources in 2017, with that level increasing by 2% each year until reaching 33% in 2020, as described by the following four equations: 2017 RPS Target = 27% × (Retail Sales in 2017) 2018 RPS Target = 29% × (Retail Sales in 2018) 2019 RPS Target = 31% × (Retail Sales in 2019) 2020 RPS Target = 33% × (Retail Sales in 2020) The overall Compliance Period 3 target is equal to the sum of these four annual soft targets. CPAU is expected to easily comply with the Compliance Period 3 overall procurement requirement, as well as the Portfolio Balancing Requirement that at least 75% of the renewable electricity supplies come from Portfolio Content Category 1 and no more than 10% come from Portfolio Content Category 3. Staff projects that renewable electricity supplies will satisfy nearly 50% of retail sales for Compliance Period 3, even after accounting for the 540,000 MWh of RPS supplies sold in 2019 and 2020, and that all of these supplies will come from either Portfolio Content Category 1 or “grandfathered” resources. Table 4: Compliance Period 3 RPS Procurement Details Year Retail Sales (MWh) Procurement Target (MWh)* Actual/Projected Procurement (MWh) % of Retail Sales 2017 884,422 238,794 554,206 62.7% 2018 888,033 257,530 574,475 64.7% 2019 861,561 267,084 319,035 37.0% 2020** 797,589 263,204 220,000 27.6% Total 3,431,605 1,026,612 1,667,716 48.6% * Annual procurement targets are “soft” targets. The RPS Procurement Plan requires that the target be met for the compliance period as a whole, not in each year of the compliance period. ** Projected annual 2020 data: reflects executed sales of 324,000 MWh. Finally, as required by the CEC RPS Enforcement Procedures and Section D of the City’s Procurement Plan, staff reported all of the above information to the California Energy Commission in August 2020. Carbon Neutral Plan In CY 2019, CPAU achieved its goal, set forth in the Carbon Neutral Plan, of an electric supply portfolio with zero net greenhouse (GHG) emissions for the sixth consecutive year, without the need to purchase unbundled renewable energy certificates (RECs) in the market. Carbon neutrality was achieved in CY 2019 through existing hydro and renewable generation (wind, solar, and landfill gas). Due to favorable hydro conditions, the City had a large surplus of energy, allowing for the sale of 216,000 MWh of renewable energy while still maintaining a carbon neutral supply portfolio (when evaluated using an annual carbon accounting framework). When the City Council approved an update to the Carbon Neutral Plan in August 2020, the primary change was to adopt an hourly carbon accounting methodology as the basis for determining whether the City has met its carbon neutrality objective. Although this change did not apply to the City’s electric supply portfolio for CY 2020, it is interesting to note how the City’s supply portfolio would have fared under this accounting framework. Under the annual accounting approach, the City had an overall surplus of 85,569 MWh of carbon neutral generation compared to its load (equal to 9.4% total load), and thus substantially exceeded the carbon neutrality standard. However, under the hourly carbon accounting approach, the City’s electric supply portfolio is found to be responsible for a net positive amount of GHG emissions: 8,085 metric tonnes of CO2 equivalent. Figure 1 below illustrates the City’s average monthly gross load (total electric consumption as measured at Citygate) and net load (Citygate load less generation from carbon neutral supply resources) for 2019. Figure 1: CPAU Monthly Average Gross & Net Load for 2019 Figure 2 below depicts the average monthly emissions intensities for the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) grid, as well as the City’s average monthly net electric emissions totals for 2019. The emissions totals are the result of applying the hourly average CAISO emissions intensity values to the City’s hourly net load (the monthly average of which is depicted in Figure 1 above). s: ~ "C "' _g ., ~ ., ~ .2:- 150 100 so 0 ..c: ... C: 0 ~ 0 ~ <C (50) (100} (150) Jan -Gross Load -Net Load (Load Les s Carbon Neutral Generation) Mar Apr May J un Jul Sep Oct Nov Dec Figure 2: Monthly Average CAISO Emissions Intensity & CPAU Net Emissions for 2019 For CY 2020, slightly below average hydro conditions are expected to result in about 46% of the City’s electric supply needs being supplied by hydroelectric resources, with the remainder coming from non-hydro renewable energy resources (including purchases of out-of-state unbundled RECs). 800 80 700 70 :c-s 600 60 :E ~ Qj 500 so Q. ;::. N 0 0 u u @. 400 40 I- > ~ -~ "' "' C C 300 30 0 ! -CAISO Em issions Intensity (lb CO2/MWh) ·;;; C "' "' -Palo Alto Net Emissions (MT CO2} ·e C 200 20 w 0 ... ·;;; Qj "' z ·e 0 w 100 10 ~ Qj 0 Ill) ~ ~ Qj ~ 0 0 0 VI Jan Apr May Jun Sep Oct Nov Dec ci: u -100 -10 -200 -20 -300 -30 City of Palo Alto (ID # 11860) Utilities Advisory Commission Staff Report Report Type: Supplemental Information Meeting Date: 1/6/2021 City of Palo Alto Page 1 Summary Title: Informational Update on EV Charging Programs Title: Informational Update on City of Palo Alto Utilities Electric Vehicle Programs From: City Manager Lead Department: Utilities Recommendation This is an informational report and no action is required. Executive Summary The attached presentation slides provide an update on the status of the City of Palo Alto Utilities’ (CPAU) electric vehicle (EV) charger programs as of December 2020. A primary focus of the program is the multi-family and non-profit sectors. In these sectors 88 sites (out of roughly 800-900 eligible sites) have expressed interest in the program. 28 technical reports have been provided to site owners representing a potential for 226 new EV charging ports. Two permit applications have been submitted and staff’s current priority is assisting more customers with submitting permit applications before expanding the number of sites participating in the program. CPAU is also promoting its regional EV charger rebate program available to workplaces. The program is launching in December and is expected to result in approximately 200 new workplace EV chargers and 10 publicly available direct current (DC) fast chargers. The California Clean Fuel Rewards Program, partially funded by CPAU’s and other agencies’ Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) funds, launched November 17 and provides a $1,500 rebate for new EV purchases at participating dealerships. Other CPAU EV programs being developed include a curbside charging pilot and an income-qualified EV rebate program. Attachments: •Attachment A: Presentation Staff: Hiromi Kelty CITY OF PALO ALTO cityofpaloalto.org/ev EV Customer Programs Update Staff: Hiromi Kelty ~CITY OF ~PALO ALTO 2 NOTABLE PROJECTS COMPLETED IN 2020 Site Level 1 Level 2 DC Fast Charger Total Number of New Ports Ellen Fletcher Middle School 0 18 1 19 Gunn High School 0 14 1 15 Greene Middle School 0 14 1 15 SAP 0 120 4 124 Bryant Street Garage 0 6 0 6 Cowper/Webster Garage 0 14 0 14 Totals 186 7 193 ~CITY OF ~PALO ALTO 3 EV CUSTOMER PROGRAMS UPDATE EV Charger Rebate Program •Number of applications: 42 •Approved number of rebates: 13 •Total amount of rebates approved: $346,000 •Number of new ports installed: 75 EV Charging Technical Assistance Program (TAP) •TAP Interested Sites: 88 •Number of Technical Site Visits Complete: 24 •Number of Final Reports Presented: 28 •Proposed Number of New EV Charging Ports: 226 @ 16 multifamily properties, 9 places of worship and 1 non-p rofit •Number of Permit Applications Submitted: 2 @ 2 multifamily sites for 6 new EV charging ports •Number of new ports installed: 0 California Clean Fuel Rewards Program Launched on November 17th •All California residents are now eligible for a $1,500 point of sale EV rebate •CPAU mandated by CARB to contribute 25% of LCFS funds towards this statewide program ~CITY OF ~PALO ALTO 4 EV CUSTOMER PROGRAMS NEXT STEPS Curbside Charging Pilot Program •Resident-driven initiative •Proposal: Install publicly available curbside chargers at 10 pilot sites with electricity supplied by resident homes •Collaborative effort with Public Works, Planning, and Utilities •Looking at expanding CPAU’s $8,000/port EV charger rebate to proposed residential curbside chargers Income Qualified EV Rebate Program •In research and design phase CALeVIP (California Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Project) Launch December 16th •Projection: 200 new Level 2 EV Charging Ports and 10 new DCFC over next 3 years at commercial sites •CPAU contributed $1M in matching funds and City awarded $1M from the CEC ~CITY OF ~PALO ALTO