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HomeMy WebLinkAbout2019-08-07 Utilities Advisory Commission Agenda PacketAMERICANS WITH DISABILITY ACT (ADA) Persons with disabilities who require auxiliary aids or services in using City facilities, services or programs or who would like information on the City’s compliance with the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) of 1990, may contact (650) 329-2550 (Voice) 24 hours in advance. NOTICE IS POSTED IN ACCORDANCE WITH GOVERNMENT CODE SECTION 54954.2(a) OR 54956 I.ROLL CALL II.ORAL COMMUNICATIONS Members of the public are invited to address the Commission on any subject not on the agenda. A reasonable time restriction may be imposed at the discretion of the Chair. State law generally precludes the UAC from discussing or acting upon any topic initially presented during oral communication. III.APPROVAL OF THE MINUTES Approval of the Minutes of the Utilities Advisory Commission Meeting held on June 5, 2019 IV.AGENDA REVIEW AND REVISIONS V.REPORTS FROM COMMISSIONER MEETINGS/EVENTS VI.GENERAL MANAGER OF UTILITIES REPORT VII.COMMISSIONER COMMENTS VIII.UNFINISHED BUSINESS - None IX.NEW BUSINESS 1.Discussion of Renewable Portfolio Standard Compliance Strategy Options for the City’s Discussion Electric Supply Portfolio 2.Discussion of Palo Alto’s Water Supply Reliability Presentation and Discussion 3.Discussion of Outreach and Response Required for Wildfire Safety, PG&E Public Safety Discussion Power Shutoff Program, and Local Outages 4.Selection of Potential Topic(s) for Discussion at Future UAC Meeting Action NEXT SCHEDULED MEETING: September 4, 2019 ADDITIONAL INFORMATION - The materials below are provided for informational purposes, not for action or discussion during UAC Meetings (Govt. Code Section 54954.2(a)(2)). Informational Reports 12-Month Rolling Calendar Public Letter(s) to the UAC 1)Utilities Quarterly Update – 3rd Quarter of Fiscal Year 2019 2)Termination of City of Palo Alto Utilities Demand Response Pilot Program 3)Conclusion of the CustomerConnect Pilot Program and Residential Time-of-Use Rate UTILITIES ADVISORY COMMISSION – REGULAR MEETING WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 7, 2019 – 7:00 P.M. COUNCIL CHAMBERS Palo Alto City Hall – 250 Hamilton Avenue Chairman: Michael Danaher  Vice Chair: Lisa Forssell  Commissioners: Donald Jackson, A.C. Johnston, Greg Scharff, Lauren Segal, and Loren Smith  Council Liaison: Tom DuBois Presentation Utilities Advisory Commission Minutes Approved on: Page 1 of 12 UTILITIES ADVISORY COMMISSION MEETING MINUTES OF JUNE 5, 2019 REGULAR MEETING CALL TO ORDER Chair Danaher called the meeting of the Utilities Advisory Commission (UAC) to order at 7:00 p.m. Present: Chair Danaher, Commissioners Forssell, Jackson, Johnston, Scharff, Segal, and Smith Absent: ORAL COMMUNICATIONS None. APPROVAL OF THE MINUTES Commissioner Johnston moved to approve the minutes of the May 1, 2019 meeting as presented. Commissioner Segal seconded the motion. The motion carried 4-0 with Chair Danaher, and Commissioners Forssell, Johnston, and Segal voting yes, Commissioners Jackson, Scharff and Smith abstaining. AGENDA REVIEW AND REVISIONS None. REPORTS FROM COMMISSIONER MEETINGS/EVENTS None. GENERAL MANAGER OF UTILITIES REPORT Dean Batchelor, Utilities Director, delivered the General Manager’s Report. PG&E Public Safety Power Shutoff Program – Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E) is distributing letters to utility customers throughout the Bay Area about the company’s Public Safety Power Shutoff Program. Considering the growing threat of extreme weather and intensity of wildfires over the past few years, the company plans to shut off major power lines in the event of extreme fire conditions. While PG&E does not serve electricity to Palo Alto customers, we are coordinating with the company to understand the potential impacts to our local distribution system, as we intake electricity to the City from PG&E’s transmission system. There is the potential that a PG&E power shutoff could result in a local outage in parts of Palo Alto. The City is convening an internal working group to ensure that we are coordinated in our actions and have a clear communication plan for our outreach to the community. We will keep the UAC apprised of PG&E and City plans as more information becomes available. Residential workshops since last UAC meeting: • “Is an Electric Vehicle Right for You?” City of Palo Alto Utilities (CPAU) sponsored this EV workshop in partnership with Stanford Health Improvement Program (HIP) on May 28 at Mitchell Park. Topics covered included the difference between all-electric and plug-in hybrid EVs, EV charging (home, work and public space), range anxiety misconceptions, battery longevity, buying versus leasing, and the DRAFT Utilities Advisory Commission Minutes Approved on: Page 2 of 12 environmental, economic, and personal benefits of EV adoption. There we approximately 100 attendees, and a number of EVs were available for viewing before and after the presentations. • “Irrigation Equipment Upgrades and Landscape Water Use Efficiency” was held on May 11. Attendees learned about irrigation equipment upgrades that can help improve the water efficiency of their landscape irrigation system. • “Maintaining Native Gardens and Leak Detection” was held on June 1. Attendees learned how to create a beautiful, low water use and low maintenance landscape with native plants. The presenter discussed design concepts, best practices, and how to set goals and a budget in this informative lecture class. Attendees were also taught about how to find out if you a leak in your system. This class was also videotaped with the intent of putting in on our website. The next Facilities Managers Meeting will be held on Thursday June 6 at VMWare. This meeting with our largest utility customers will include presentations on the VMWare Microgrid Project, Decarbonization, Distributed Energy Resources, EV chargers installation options, and utility rate changes. Facility Managers Meeting are typically held twice a year. As a note from last month’s General Manager’s report, the Mayor’s Green Business Leader Awards were to be presented at the May 20 City Council Meeting but was moved to a yet to be determined date. New Program Update – The EV Solutions and Technical Assistance program will be using Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) funds to offer full end to end consulting and project management services to various commercial customers to install EV Chargers – with emphasis on low income MF, regular Multi-Unit Dwellings and non-profits. With the assistance of our contractor ClearResult, we expect this program will accelerate the installation of EV charging infrastructure at these harder to reach customer groups. The goal is for this program to help us towards the City’s sustainability goals and to streamline processes for all departments involved. COMMISSIONER COMMENTS None. UNFINISHED BUSINESS None. NEW BUSINESS ITEM 1: ACTION: Election of Officers. ACTION: Commissioner Johnston moved to approve Commissioner Danaher as Chair and Commissioner Forssell as Vice Chair. Commissioner Segal seconded the motion. The motion carried 7-0 with Commissioners Danaher, Forssell, Jackson, Johnston, Scharff, Segal, and Smith voting yes ITEM 2: DISCUSSION: Discussion of Electric Vehicle and Building Decarbonization Sustainability/Climate Action Plan Implementation Plans. Jonathan Abendschein, Assistant Director of Resource Management, reported over the next year the UAC will discuss the Sustainability and Climate Action Plan (S/CAP) update. The presentation will focus on Citywide efforts concerning building decarbonization and electric vehicles. Later in the summer, staff will present information about customer programs. David Coale remarked that the cost of an electric vehicle (EV) can be less than the cost of a cell phone if a purchaser selects the right lease option. The Ride and Drive program has been key to increasing EV adoption. However, the City's minimum parking requirements prevent EV charging infrastructure from being installed. The UAC should address parking requirements and charging infrastructure with the City Manager and the Council. The REACH Code has to require all new buildings and small businesses be all electric. Installing Utilities Advisory Commission Minutes Approved on: Page 3 of 12 natural gas in residential construction will result in stranded assets. The City needs to begin paying the price to decommission the natural gas system. Bret Andersen commented that investment in EV infrastructure supports single-occupancy vehicles (SOV) as a mode of travel. The mobility strategy is designed to reduce SOV as a mode. The City can reduce its investment in EV charging if it promotes mobility and the reduction of SOV travel. In order to reach the reduction goal for natural gas usage, every resident will have to adopt electric appliances. The City has to make adoption of electric appliances easy. Carbon Free Palo Alto has a proposal, Be Smart, which self- finances electric appliances on the bill. Billing systems appear to be the major issue, but there are work- arounds. Tom Kabat suggested the City move quickly to require all-electric new construction in order to avoid the high cost of retrofits. Hillary Rupert, consultant, advised that the City of Palo Alto developed the first Climate Protection Plan in 2007 and adopted the S/CAP in 2016. As of 2017, the City of Palo Alto has reduced its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by an estimated 43% from the 1990 baseline. The Sustainability Implementation Plan (SIP) consists of four action areas: energy, water, mobility, and electric vehicles. Christine Tam, Senior Resource Planner, indicated the S/CAP contains many assumptions about actions needed to reach the goal of an 80% reduction in GHG emissions by 2030. EV adoption and building electrification account for more than 98% of the assumed GHG reduction needed to meet the 80 by '30 goal. To meet the goals, 90% of residents' vehicles and 50% of commuters' vehicles will need to be electric. With respect to building electrification, the primary sources of GHG emissions are water heaters, space heaters, and stoves/ovens. Rupert continued the presentation, stating staff across the organization is making a tremendous effort to implement the EV SIP. The first action is to publicize streamlined permitting and CPAU-funded transformer upgrades. These are policy reviews and procedure streamlining. The second action is to consider EV readiness and charger installation in existing buildings. Because of the challenges with retrofitting buildings, staff is providing education and reviewing incentives. The third action is to evaluate programs to expand EV charger deployment on private property. Twenty-eight applications have been submitted for LCFS funding to install EV chargers in low-income multiunit dwellings and nonprofits. At the end of the first quarter of 2019, seven sites have received rebates. In response to Chair Danaher's question regarding the length of time required to process an application, Rupert reported the application process can take 6-12 months to complete. In answer to Vice Chair Forssell's request for an explanation of parking requirements and minimum parking, Rupert referred Commissioners to the City website because parking requirements are complex and involve State mandates. In reply to Commissioner Segal's inquiry regarding a City requirement for new construction to allocate sufficient space for EV parking, Tam indicated currently Palo Alto has probably the most rigorous requirements for EV-ready parking spaces for multifamily and commercial buildings. In answer to Commissioner Scharff's query regarding the loss of parking spaces due to installation of an EV charging space, Dean Batchelor, Utilities Director, explained the loss of a parking space occurs because a full- time parking space is converted to an EV charging space with a 3-4 hour time limit. As a charging space, the parking space is not available to non-EVs. Commissioner Scharff requested clarification of the regulations for conversion of a parking space to an EV charging space when a building is over-parked. Abendschein disclosed that a single EV charging space has to be striped as an ADA space so that regular and accessible vehicles can utilize the space. Converting a normal-sized parking space to an ADA space when a building is minimally Utilities Advisory Commission Minutes Approved on: Page 4 of 12 parked causes the loss of one parking space, which results in the building not being in compliance with parking regulations. An over-parked property can install an EV charging space because the building can lose a parking space and still be in compliance with parking requirements. Some multifamily buildings have installed chargers. The Planning and Building Departments are addressing this issue. Rupert added that the issue has been presented to the Planning and Transportation Commission, who is also reviewing the issue. In response to Councilmember DuBois' question regarding an EV parking in an ADA space, Abendschein clarified that there are dedicated ADA spaces and EV spaces. The EV space has to be ADA accessible, which means a larger than usual space and the loss of a parking space. In reply to Commissioner Smith's queries regarding a breakdown of the type of buildings that have applied for an EV charging space and a way to fast track applications for existing buildings, Rupert advised that she did not have a breakdown of applications by building type. Developing a fast track for applications will require interdepartmental collaboration. Rupert further reported the fourth action is building public and private infrastructure. By 2020, Palo Alto residents are anticipated to own 4,000-6,000 EVs. Building public infrastructure is important to support the goals for EV adoption. Staff has some infrastructure projects in the pipeline, such as additional Level 2 chargers and installation of 26 ports or an additional 13 chargers in City garages. Staff is also talking with Tesla about super chargers and with Electrify America regarding DC fast chargers. With respect to a conflict between the EV policy and the mobility policy, the goal is to reduce the number of cars. If driving is the only option for people, staff prefers they drive an EV. The fifth action is to expand EV deployment in the City fleet. Staff has reviewed a five-year replacement strategy and identified 17 vehicles that could be replaced with EVs. The sixth action is to support regional EV group-buy programs, which have been moderately successful. This action does not have a high priority. The seventh action is engaging community members and building public awareness of EV options. The City partners with Acterra to sponsor ride-and-drive events. The FAQ pages on the CPAU website have been updated to provide EV information. The eighth action is to seek ways to collaborate with other electrification efforts. The goal of the EV infographic is to tell the EV story in an easy and fun way so that folks can engage with it. There was an estimated 4,000 EVs in Palo Alto at the end of 2018, and 29% of new car sales in Palo Alto are EVs. In answer to Chair Danaher's query regarding the 4,000 EVs including hybrid vehicles, Rupert believed the 4,000 EVs do not include hybrids. Rupert further stated Palo Alto has 2.5 times more EVs in 2018 than in 2014. Challenges for staff are determining the right metrics for GHG reductions, technology outpacing City policies and regulations, and competing priorities. Tam continued the presentation, stating within the Energy SIP framework, staff looks at energy efficiency and building electrification as the key areas. The City has adopted ten-year energy efficiency targets, and staff will continue to pursue cost-effective energy efficiency programs and mandates. A variety of tools is available to facilitate the electrification process in residences. Staff is reviewing whether to exceed State requirements in the next Building Code cycle in order to obtain additional energy efficiency savings and building electrification beyond 2020. . Staff is developing voluntary programs and technical assistance programs that can result in additional energy savings and electrification beyond 2020. Construction of a replacement facility for the sludge incinerator is complete. As a transitional measure, the City has purchased carbon offsets to match natural gas emissions from the City's consumption of natural gas. The City has a variety of tools, from education and outreach to customers to pilot programs, to facilitate the adoption of electrification. The current Building Code encourages all-electric new construction. Staff will explore mandating clean technologies and the needs of the low-income community and hard-to-reach customers. Staff is aware of the barriers customers face. Staff needs to work with neighbors in the Bay Area to drive market and supply chain transformation. Staff launched a heat pump water heater rebate pilot program three years ago but has not seen a lot of uptake. Consequently, staff is attempting to collaborate with Utilities Advisory Commission Minutes Approved on: Page 5 of 12 communities in the Bay Area to discount the cost of heat pump water heaters. Staff is working closely with Development Services to push for mandates and incentives in the Code to encourage efficiency and electrification. On Earth Day, staff launched an induction cooktop loaner program. The multifamily gas furnace to heat pump retrofit pilot program is funded by grants from the Bay Area Air Quality Management District. Staff is currently searching for multifamily buildings, primarily low-income housing, to convert gas furnaces to heat pumps. A survey of residents found about 25% are familiar with a heat pump water heater. Customers view natural gas as a cheap and clean energy source. Currently, there is little State and Federal funding to support building electrification. Heat pump technology for small commercial buildings and residential homes is very good. For commercial buildings over 100,000 square feet, the technology is not mature. In reply to Commissioner Johnston's questions regarding encouraging more office buildings to install EV chargers in their parking lots and barriers to additional EV adoption, Rupert explained that the City has not promoted destination charging in the private sector or workplaces. Outreach to the private sector is an action item, but it has low priority because of the focus on multiunit dwellings and nonprofits. Tam reported responses to the residential survey indicate renters do not purchase EVs because they do not have a convenient charger. Abendschein added that large commercial customers are installing chargers based on employee demand. Staff has a meeting with facility managers regarding EV chargers. Commissioner Scharff questioned the effect of PG&E's public safety power outages on fleet EVs. Rural communities are concerned about electrification because of the potential for electrical outages. Commissioner Scharff indicated he had heard someone from the State speak at a conference about hydrogen fuel cells being equal to EVs. Chair Danaher remarked that 20,000 EVs will represent a huge part of the electricity load in the City. The EVs should be networked so that the charging rates can be controlled. Staff needs to ensure that EV chargers are future-proofed. Councilmember DuBois suggested branding Palo Alto as the EV capital, challenging other cities to beat Palo Alto's adoption rate, thinking about eliminating gas stations because of the high rate of EV adoption in Palo Alto. ACTION: None ITEM 3: ACTION: Discussion of Electric Supply Carbon Accounting Methodology and RPS Compliance Strategy. Bret Andersen believed staff needs to get the numbers right and needs to be honest about offsets and carbon neutrality. The assumed natural gas leakage rate is 5%, which means the carbon footprint for buildings is two to three times greater than it is believed to be. The City needs to start accounting for the cost of carbon and using that cost in promotional and incentive programs for electrification. Tom Kabat related that staff could incorporate the fugitive emissions CO2 equivalent into promotions for heat pumps. Using a 20-year timeline rather than a 100-year timeline is vital. Jim Stack, Senior Resource Planner, reported many financial implications are associated with changing the City’s RPS compliance strategy. Month by month, CPAU has excess supply in the spring and summer from hydroelectric and solar power and deficit supply in the winter months. On an hourly basis, CPAU has large surpluses in July, especially in the evening hours when hydroelectric power is dispatched, and deficits in all hours in the winter. Over the past six to seven years, the grid has changed dramatically. Oftentimes, the carbon intensity of the grid is very low during the middle of the day due to solar generation and very dirty in the evening hours due to natural gas generation. The current approach to carbon accounting is a simple annual accounting method. Staff determines the load over the course of a year and the total carbon neutral supply. If they match, staff considers the utility carbon neutral. The more accurate approach is an hour-by- hour basis, which looks at the net surplus or deficit of resources compared to load and weights those amounts Utilities Advisory Commission Minutes Approved on: Page 6 of 12 by the carbon intensity of the grid at that point in time. Another dimension is whether unbundled Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs) are considered carbon neutral. Beginning in 2020, CPAU has to report in its Power Content Label (PCL) the average emissions associated with the supply portfolio. The state will not consider unbundled RECs to be carbon neutral. Currently, CPAU tends to have surplus resources during the spring and summer evening hours when the grid electricity is the dirtiest. By dispatching those resources to maximize their value, CPAU displaces a lot of carbon from the grid. For 2018, the total carbon emissions for the portfolio was about 16,000 metric tonnes (mT). In answer to Commissioner Segal's question about negative carbon emissions, Stack explained when CPAU has a surplus of supplies compared to load, CPAU is putting more resources onto the grid than taking out of the grid. Staff weights those resources by the carbon intensity of the grid at that period in time. If CPAU has 100 megawatt hours (MWh) of extra supply resources and the carbon intensity of the grid is 10 pounds per MWh, CPAU is displacing 1,000 pounds of carbon. Lena Perkins, Acting Senior Resource Planner, added that CPAU's resources are showing up in the dirtiest times of the grid and CPAU's load is distributed in relatively clean times of the grid. This methodology was recently re-validated by a Stanford University study using the same methodology and declaring the same result. Jonathan Abendschein, Assistant Director of Resources Management, clarified that the physics of electricity require the amount consumed to equal the amount generated. If CPAU generates extra solar power, electricity from a gas-fired plant has to be reduced. If CPAU generates 10% more renewables over the course of a year than load, there's a chance CPAU will end up negative. Perkins indicated it only works in the context of a broader grid. Stack continued his presentation, stating without unbundled RECs, CPAU's portfolio would be responsible for about 1,600 mT of CO2 using the annual approach. With an hourly approach, it's about 17,000 mT. In reply to Commissioner Scharff's inquiry regarding marginal emissions and average emissions, Stack suggested Commissioners think of marginal emissions as the last unit of generation that is brought online to meet an additional unit of demand. The last unit tends to be the dirtiest unit on the grid. On an average basis, all the renewables, which tend not to be the last unit, are lumped in. On an average basis, the average emission factors are lower while the marginal emission factors are higher. CPAU's portfolio looks better under the marginal emissions factors because a lot of its hydroelectric generation is dispatched in the periods when marginal emissions factors are extremely high. In response to Commissioner Scharff's query regarding marginal emissions factors not being the right methodology, Stack advised that CPAU is a small part of the overall grid. If every utility in the state applied the marginal emissions factors to their entire loads, the end result would not equal the total emissions statewide. It has to be an average basis. Abendschein added that staff would continue to talk about marginal emissions in the context of coaching individuals to use electricity. The average emissions methodology gradually pushes staff to do the right thing with CPAU's portfolio. With marginal emissions, the portfolio can change quickly from good to bad such that staff does not have enough lead time to make good portfolio decisions. Stack further reported CPAU is currently using unbundled RECs from out-of-state generation to abate emissions. Other methods to abate emissions are carbon offsets, carbon allowances, and bundled RECs from instate renewable energy. Given the disparity of prices, it is reasonable to ask are unbundled RECs legitimate if they cost so little. There is an ongoing philosophical and academic discussion on that topic. Staff thinks unbundled RECs are legitimate instruments and have some concrete carbon-reduction value. The question, though, is whether additionality is associated with the purchases. In other words, do they incentivize new levels of generation to be built in out-of-state regions? On the margins, they do create some incentive. Also, they make it cheaper for states to increase their RPS policies. Chair Danaher noted the additionality argument also applies to bundled RECs, but that argument is faulty. Stack indicated the state has imposed limits on the number of unbundled RECs that can be used for compliance purposes. Abendschein added that staff is struggling with public perception. Some people do not believe the arguments. Staff wants to get a sense of the environmental community's thoughts about a position like this. The instinct is to look at the renewable portfolio and want to point to specific sources of Utilities Advisory Commission Minutes Approved on: Page 7 of 12 supply coming to Palo Alto, but the arguments say look only at carbon and get the best carbon impact possible no matter where the energy comes from. It is a logical approach but difficult to explain. If environmental stakeholders say CPAU is greenwashing, the purchase of unbundled RECs could be problematic for public perception. Staff needs to look into that before making any firm decision on RPS compliance. Vice Chair Forssell wanted to understand the bill impact for customers. Commissioner Scharff commented that he always thought CPAU should move away from RECs, but now he is hearing that unbundled RECs may be superior. Stack reiterated that there is a lot of debate, but staff thinks unbundled RECs are viable. Commissioner Scharff stated buying brown power and unbundled RECs to offset the brown power would make CPAU carbon neutral. Yet, staff seemed to be saying it is not okay to use natural gas and carbon offsets. Those seem to conflict. Chair Danaher agreed the two do conflict. Staff is responding to the S/CAP. In fact, the UAC should be looking at the lowest cost method to reach carbon neutral. Maybe the S/CAP targets need to be reformulated. In answer to Commissioner Scharff's inquiry regarding the effect of selling renewables and moving toward carbon offsets or RECs on the S/CAP, Abendschein explained that CPAU has added a lot of renewable energy to the grid. Now, CPAU is trading between resources. For building energy use, if staff buys offsets and considers it complete, long-term hard work will be needed to reduce natural gas use. Staff has not done that work yet. Saving money on the electric side and using those savings to fund other sustainability efforts is moving CPAU forward. Relying solely on carbon offsets does not affect the actions needed to reach the 80 by '30 goal. Perkins added that the RECs are only on the western interconnect. There is an imbalance market looking to be rolled into a day-ahead energy market. The greenness of unbundled RECs versus bundled RECs is not the right question. If they're close, Staff has to consider whether bundled RECs have 15 times the carbon impact. Stack continued the presentation, stating using an hourly accounting, the portfolio in 2018 had about 17,000 mT of emissions to abate. Using unbundled RECs, it would cost about $62,000. Using offsets, it would cost about $250,000. In reply to Commissioner Johnston's inquiry about translating that to a percentage of rates or dollars per month, Abendschein indicated an ongoing $1.5-$1.7 million cost equals a 1% increase in rates. Stack further reported CPAU first adopted an RPS target in 2002. SB 100 gives utilities with large amounts of old, large hydroelectric in their portfolios an exemption to come in below the RPS requirement level. CPAU has to achieve an RPS level that is the lesser of the regular limit and the amount of load not supplied by old, large hydroelectric. Commissioner Scharff noted the City lobbied strongly for that provision and achieved its inclusion in SB 100 because Palo Alto was viewed as doing the right thing for the environment. Stack continued, stating in 2019 CPAU's RPS requirement is 31%, but the portfolio is roughly double that, resulting in a large surplus. The current approach to comply with the RPS requirement is to exceed the RPS requirement with all instate resources. Staff could choose lower-cost options. Staff could sell some resources that exceed load. Because CPAU's load has been declining, CPAU has more resources overall in an average hydroelectric year than load. Staff could sell everything that exceeds the RPS requirement. In response to Chair Danaher's question about staff already selling excess, Stack advised that Staff could sell the portion that exceeds load. Right now, roughly 110% of CPAU's load is in total hydroelectric plus renewables, so staff could sell 10% or everything above the RPS requirement, which would be 30%. Under RPS law, CPAU is allowed to satisfy 10% of the RPS requirement using unbundled out-of-state RECs. Staff could sell some of CPAU's instate bundled resources and swap them for cheaper out-of-state unbundled RECs. CPAU has been exceeding its RPS requirement for almost ten years. Every year that CPAU has exceeded Utilities Advisory Commission Minutes Approved on: Page 8 of 12 the RPS requirement, staff has been saving the excess for a total of about 1.2 million RECs. Staff could sell all of CPAU's RPS resources for the next four years and rely on the saved RECs. On the increasing cost side, staff could sell some resources like solar that produces a lot in the summer and replace it with geothermal that produces in a baseload pattern. Staff could try to be carbon neutral every hour of the year, but that would involve selling a lot of solar, buying a lot of baseload renewables, and dispatching hydroelectric resources to match load rather than to obtain the most value. Staff does not recommend that approach. Going to a carbon neutral every hour approach would cost $6-$10 million per year. Bucket swapping would be a $500,000 per year opportunity. Using saved RECs between now and 2030 would result in an approximate $2 million savings. Selling all supply exceeding the RPS requirement is a minimal compliance strategy. A minimal compliance strategy would result in a $5-$7 million per year savings. In answer to Commissioner Johnston's query about using the banked RECs instead of buying new RECs, Stack disclosed that staff would sell Bucket 1 resources and buy market power. In response to Commissioner Scharff's inquiry about the price of banked RECs, Stack reported the banked RECs are worth essentially the same as a Bucket 1 REC. CPAU does not lose any value by banking RECs. Stack continued his presentation, stating in 2020 under a minimal compliance strategy, CPAU could save about $7 million in supply costs with an RPS level of about 21%. In terms of carbon, the current portfolio under an hourly accounting method would result in negative 45,000 mT of CO2 emissions. If CPAU changed to a minimal compliance approach, it would have a portfolio responsible for positive 114,000 mT of CO2 emissions. Mitigating the 114,000 mT of emissions would require purchasing Bucket 3 RECs or another strategy. If staff purchased Bucket 3 RECs, there would be a cost of about $400,000 to mitigate those emissions, compared to a $7.4 million savings from selling Bucket 1 RECs. In answer to Commissioner Scharff's question of whether the strategy would be to sell Bucket 1 RECs and purchase Bucket 3 RECs, Stack responded correct. That is the minimal compliance or the least cost approach. Stack further reported if staff sold all resources greater than the RPS requirement, customers would see some unspecified market power purchases on the PCL. If staff used the minimal compliance approach, almost a quarter of supply would be from market purchases. In reply to Vice Chair Forssell's question about bucket swapping introducing a market power slide to the PCL, Stack answered yes. Stack continued the presentation, stating a $7 million net savings would result in a 4-5% rate reduction. Staff could retain the $7 million and defer rate increases for a number of years. Staff could use the funds for sustainability initiatives. Another factor to consider is customer perception of these options. In reply to Commissioner Smith's inquiry of whether the graph included banked RECs in each year and whether the graph should show zero banked RECs in 2030, Stack advised that the graph includes RECs banked each year. The final banked RECs would be sold in 2030; therefore, 2031 would show zero banked records. Stack further reported as existing contracts expire, CPAU has less surplus to sell. As the RPS level increases, there is less headroom. In response to Commissioner Smith's query about reducing electric demand to the point that banked RECs would not be needed, Stack related that reducing demand would provide additional RECs that could be sold. Chair Danaher noted past analyses indicated the increase in EV adoption would offset the decreases in other consumption. The UAC did not expect a reduction in the overall load. In answer to Commissioner Smith's question about spending the $7 million savings to increase EV infrastructure, Stack indicated that is one possibility. Staff is forecasting a decrease in overall load because of efficiency and behind-the-meter solar exceeding the gains from EV load. Utilities Advisory Commission Minutes Approved on: Page 9 of 12 Commissioner Scharff commented that the decreasing load will increase rates for consumers. Perkins added that industrial customers are leaving the service area as well. Commissioner Scharff stated industrial customers are moving because Santa Clara's electric rates are substantially less than CPAU's electric rates. Stack further reported staff will return with another discussion and a recommendation. Staff will seek Council approval of a change in the carbon accounting methodology because it is part of the Carbon Neutral Plan. The RPS compliance strategy is a significant shift, so staff wanted the Council's feedback on it as well. Staff could begin selling some resources in 2019, but 2020 is more likely. In the next nine months, staff will also provide the UAC with reports regarding the new 30-year Western Base Resource contract. In reply to Commissioner Segal's inquiry regarding the impact of renewing the contract on the exemption for the RPS level requirement, Stack indicated a new hydroelectric contact would not be exempt. Renewing an existing contract would be exempt. In response to Commissioner Segal's question of whether the $7 million savings could purchase sufficient storage to offset the need to purchase some RECs, Stack advised that the savings would fund a significant storage installation that staff could use to shift generation around to reduce carbon. Perkins added that in terms of City impacts, the savings would have the greatest impact on transportation, whether mobility or EVs. In answer to Commissioner Segal's query about wind power in the first slide, Stack disclosed that CPAU has one contract expiring at the end of 2021 and another in 2028. If the Western contract is reduced or eliminated, staff might replace it with wind power. In response to Chair Danaher's question regarding distinguishing the environmental value of Bucket 1 RECs from Bucket 3 RECs, Perkins explained that the maximum Bucket 3 RECs staff could procure for RPS compliance is 10%. Staff is already dealing with an artificially constrained market. Bucket 1 RECs are increasing in price. The price for Bucket 3 RECs is flat or decreasing. Study papers indicate by optimizing over a larger area, there is no net leakage of carbon on the WECC (Western Electricity Coordinating Council) and the prices are lower for everyone. Abendschein added that one of the countervailing arguments concerns additionality. The fact that there is not much of a liquid market for Bucket 1 RECs means generally the requirement forces utilities to enter into a long-term Power Purchase Agreement, which most people agree is instrumental in adding renewable energy to the grid. The countervailing argument applies when utilities buy Bucket 3 RECs that may come from established projects. There's an argument to be made that Palo Alto has done its work on additionality. If environmental groups look carefully at those arguments and are concerned about CPAU's portfolio, staff would be in a position to make that argument. Commissioner Scharff viewed this as a huge change in Palo Alto's direction. Saving $7 million a year over ten years is a large number, but it does not feel right to tell people CPAU is carbon free. If big hydroelectric was considered renewable, CPAU would tell everyone it was 100% renewable. Chair Danaher related that under the hourly accounting methodology, CPAU is not carbon neutral during large periods of time. Commissioner Scharff remarked that staff could buy more renewables to cover that. Vice Chair Forssell understood under carbon-neutral hourly, CPAU would be an island and not part of the grid, which is different than using hourly average accounting, which is still in the context of the grid. Commissioner Scharff asked if CPAU would be carbon free under the hourly accounting method and as part of the grid. In response to Vice Chair Forssell's request for the meaning of minimally RPS compliant, Stack explained that under the current Council-approved definition, CPAU could be considered carbon neutral by buying Bucket 3 RECs. To the extent CPAU has market purchases that show up in the PCL, CPAU could buy additional Bucket 3 RECs and still be considered carbon neutral under the minimally compliant approach. Vice Chair Forssell inquired whether anyone is suggesting a change in Palo Alto's established definition of carbon neutral, to which Stack replied no. Commissioner Scharff asked if the definition would be revised to be more granular. Chair Danaher viewed it as two problems: the amount of emissions determined by the accounting methodology and requiring the purchase of offsets or credits, and the source of the offsets or credits. Commissioner Scharff viewed it as CPAU striving to have 50% renewables and 50% hydroelectric. Because of Utilities Advisory Commission Minutes Approved on: Page 10 of 12 the vagaries of the market, sometimes CPAU has to offset emissions with RECs. Commissioner Johnston interpreted the discussion as whether to move away from the traditional strategy. In reply to Commissioner Scharff's statement that he did not have sufficient information, Abendschein advised that staff needs to have an internal discussion to frame recommendations for the UAC. Staff also needs to follow up on some studies that have some promising positive support for the concepts discussed and that staff might use to frame the arguments. In addition, Abendschein wanted to talk with environmental stakeholders about these concepts and get their initial reactions. It might make sense to provide customers with a carbon-neutral hourly portfolio if it is important and intuitive to the customers and if customers are willing to pay extra. Commissioner Smith suggested staff provide the UAC with past Council direction to frame the discussion in the perspective of a goal. Stack reported in 2013 the objective was to rely on RECs until CPAU built some hard resources and then in 2016 or so rely on half of supply from instate hard resources through long-term contracts for renewables and half from hydroelectric. In reply to Commissioner Smith's inquiry regarding additional hydroelectric supplies coming online, Stack indicated there are no new hydroelectric resources coming online. Staff recently learned about some hydroelectric resources that are coming off contracts with other utilities and that CPAU might pick up. In response to Commissioner Smith's concern about maintaining 50% hydroelectric if demand increases, Stack disclosed that current renewables contracts are just as low as the hydroelectric contract. Commissioner Jackson suggested creating a rate plan for homeowners who convert to all electric if CPAU realized the $7 million savings. Perkins reported lowering rates by 5% is incentivizing electrification and EVs. In response to Vice Chair Forssell's query regarding the City's internal RPS target, Stack clarified that the City's target is currently the same as the State's target. CPAU initially had a target higher than the State's target, but the State has caught up. Vice Chair Forssell asked if a minimal RPS requirement would be 29% renewable, as much hydroelectric as possible, and buying either offsets or allowances or using banked RECs, to which Stack replied that is correct for 2018 when the RPS requirement was 29%. Perkins clarified that the RPS level is the percentage of the portfolio comprised of eligible renewables in one year. That is different from the RPS minimum set by the State. Stack noted the RPS requirement is different from the amount achieved each year. Vice Chair Forssell remarked that minimally compliant would be selling the excess instead of generating 60% renewable power from projects. Chair Danaher indicated combining that with the RPS compliance complicates the issue quite a bit. Disassociating the two issues would be helpful. Bucket 3 RECs may be a cheaper way to abate the additional 17,000 mT calculated under the more exacting standard in order to maintain carbon neutrality. He requested staff provide for the next meeting information regarding what CPAU does with RECs now and how CPAU accounts for the shortfall when purchasing RECs. In answer to Commissioner Segal's inquiry regarding limitations on the contents of the PCL, Stack reported staff cannot change anything on the PCL. Staff inserts the values, and the PCL shows the portfolio equals so many pounds per MWh of carbon emissions over the course of the year. Dean Batchelor, Utilities Director, advised that staff will return in August with a continued discussion but no action for the topic. ACTION: None ITEM 4: DISCUSSION: Discussion of Natural Gas Leakage from the City of Palo Alto's Gas Distribution System. David Coale commented that leakage can double the impact of GHG effects from natural gas, which would make it about the same as burning coal. The global warming potential of methane should be 86 times CO2 Utilities Advisory Commission Minutes Approved on: Page 11 of 12 because it should be taken in the 20-year timeframe rather than the 100-year timeframe. The City accounts for transmission losses across the entire electricity grid but only within the City for natural gas transmission. Tom Kabat explained that a REC is a rigorously tracked attribute from a project that is hard metered and tracked by an accounting system into accounts. An offset is a counter-factual calculation of what someone would have done if had had not been paid not to do what he would have done. CPAU should use the 20-year timeframe because it gives the larger effect of fugitive emissions. About 25% of current global emissions needs to be removed from the atmosphere at a cost of more than $100 per ton. Avoiding emissions now is worth a cost of $100 per ton. Bret Andersen expressed concern about where the huge emission number will be reported. The City's carbon footprint does not show fugitive emissions. Staff should call out the emission number in planning and in the City's footprint for natural gas use. Jonathan Abendschein, Assistant Director of Resource Management, reported the item was prompted by a question from Vice Chair Forssell about the amount of leakage from Palo Alto's gas distribution system. Staff does not know for sure. A 2012 study to determine whether CPAU needed to report estimated gas leakage to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) calculated about 4,700 mT of carbon was being emitted due to leakage and oxidization on CPAU's system. The calculation used many nationwide assumptions; therefore, it is not necessarily specific to Palo Alto. The amount is a small number relative to total emissions, which are in the range of 150,000 to 160,000 mT. A second method for calculating gas leakage is the difference between meter readings from the four stations where CPAU takes gas from PG&E's system and the total sales CPAU meters over the same period of time. The difference between the two is 1.5% to 3%. Metering is an imprecise science. A 2% measuring error is the standard for a meter in the field. Not all of the 1.5% to 3% is released into the atmosphere, but the amount released into the atmosphere is an open question and would require further study. The City does more than the Department of Transportation (DOT) requires to repair and search for leaks. Therefore, Abendschein assumed the actual emissions to the atmosphere are lower than many other utilities. Commissioner Segal supported estimating methane emissions at the 20-year level rather than the 100-year level. Understanding the impact of upgrading the most vulnerable pipes on reducing emissions and on the cost to reduce emissions would be interesting. Dean Batchelor, Utilities Director, advised that the oldest gas pipes are replaced after leak surveys are conducted. Approximately 45 miles of PVC pipe remain in the City, and they will be replaced over the next five to seven years with high-density gas pipe. In response to Chair Danaher's question about PG&E tracking or estimating leakage from its system, Abendschein indicated he could obtain the information as PG&E is mandated to report it to the California Air Resources Board (CARB). Vice Chair Forssell concurred with using a 20-year time horizon. She had raised the issue with the thought to expand the Green Gas program to offset fugitive emissions as well. However, the electric portfolio should be prioritized over gas emissions. Batchelor indicated he will place gas emissions on the list of items for a future agenda and return before the end of the year for a discussion. In reply to Commissioner Smith's query about staff anticipating another 1% decrease over the five to seven years it will take to replace PVC pipes, Batchelor answered yes. When the ground moves, the joints of the PVC pipes leak gas. CPAU does not have the normal leakage rate because the pressure on the PVC pipe is lower than other utilities use. ACTION: None Utilities Advisory Commission Minutes Approved on: Page 12 of 12 ITEM 5: DISCUSSION: Discussion and Update on Fiber and AMI Planning. Dean Batchelor, Utilities Director, reported staff will present a fiber update to the Council on June 24. The update will include reissuing a Request for Proposals (RFP) and perhaps a new scope of work. In November, the Council approved Automated Metering Infrastructure (AMI). Staff wants to build fiber to the collectors for AMI so that the response to outages is faster. Hopefully, staff will return to the Council in October with a contract award and start work at the first of 2020. In reply to Commissioner Smith's query about a dig once policy, Batchelor explained that all projects for electrical upgrades include installation of fiber conduit. In response to Commissioner Jackson's inquiry about the UAC reviewing the RFP before it is released, Batchelor indicated he will forward it to the UAC. ACTION: None ITEM 6: DISCUSSION: Discussion and Status of Water Leak Bill Credits. Dean Batchelor, Utilities Director, reported staff added $25,000 to the budget for a total of $75,000. Currently, credits total approximately $59,000 for 131 customers. The average rebate is about $373 for water credits and irrigation repairs. The maximum credit allowed is $2,500, but requests for credits have not been that high. ACTION: None ITEM 7: ACTION: Selection of Potential Topic(s) for Discussion at Future UAC Meeting. Chair Danaher noted an additional discussion of RPS strategy will be scheduled for the August meeting. In response to Commissioner Johnston's question regarding the ordinance for neighborhoods that want to underground all utility equipment, Dean Batchelor, Utilities Director, advised that the item will be presented to Council in June or August. He will provide an update to the UAC after the Council meeting. ACTION: None NEXT SCHEDULED MEETING: August 7, 2019 Meeting adjourned at 10:08 p.m. Respectfully Submitted Tabatha Boatwright City of Palo Alto Utilities Utilities Advisory Commission Minutes Approved on: September 04, 2019 Page 1 of 10 UTILITIES ADVISORY COMMISSION MEETING MINUTES OF AUGUST 7, 2019 REGULAR MEETING CALL TO ORDER Chair Danaher called the meeting of the Utilities Advisory Commission (UAC) to order at 7:00 p.m. Present: Chair Danaher, Vice Chair Forssell, Commissioners Jackson, Johnston, Scharff (arrived at 7:30 p.m.), Segal, and Smith Absent: None ORAL COMMUNICATIONS None. APPROVAL OF THE MINUTES Commissioner Johnston moved to approve the minutes of the June 5, 2019 meeting as amended. Commissioner Segal seconded the motion. The motion carried 6-0 with Chair Danaher, Vice Chair Forssell, and Commissioners Jackson, Johnston, Segal, and Smith voting yes and Commissioner Scharff absent. AGENDA REVIEW AND REVISIONS None. REPORTS FROM COMMISSIONER MEETINGS/EVENTS None. GENERAL MANAGER OF UTILITIES REPORT Dean Batchelor, Utilities Director, delivered the General Manager’s Report. The Home Efficiency Genie is Now an Award Winning Program – CPAU is proud to announce that we have received a National Energy Innovator Award for our Home Efficiency Genie program. I was honored to accept the award in June at the American Public Power Association (APPA) conference. The Genie program, which began in July 2015, has been recognized for its application of creative, energy-efficient techniques, technologies and successful simplicity. The program optimizes home efficiency by providing individually tailored energy and water efficiency recommendations to residents. By providing free advice over the phone, the Genie has become a trusted and reliable resource for our customers. The House Call assessment costs a resident $149, but that cost will be reimbursed when the homeowner completes one of the efficiency projects recommended by the Genie. Learn more at efficiencygenie.com. SunShares Solar and EV Group Buy Program Now Available - For the fifth year in a row, Palo Alto is participating in Bay Area SunShares, a solar group-buy program that allows residents in the Bay Area to pool their buying power and benefit from discounts on rooftop solar and electric vehicles. Learn more and register for the program at BayAreaSunShares.org from August 1 through November 15. FINAL Utilities Advisory Commission Minutes Approved on: September 04, 2019 Page 2 of 10 Rebates for 2019 Nissan Leaf - Through September 30, CPAU customers and employees can receive rebates on the Nissan Leaf. The APPA has partnered with Nissan to offer rebates to public power utilities for purchasing a 2019 Nissan Leaf. The rebate cannot be combined with the SunShares program. Utility Meter Audits Beginning this Month - CPAU has contracted with Professional Meters, Inc. (PMI) to perform a field audit of all utility meters in the City. This audit is intended to help us prepare for the implementation of new business information systems and modernized metering infrastructure to improve the level of service we deliver to our utility customers. Contractors will be in residential and business areas beginning in early August. Customers will receive a notification in the mail prior to the audit with a date of when contractors will be in their area. CPAU contractors will be carrying ID badges, wearing shirts with their company logo, and driving vehicles identifiable as CPAU contractors. If there are any questions or concerns, people may contact Utilities Customer Service at (650) 329-2161. Preparing for Seismic Hazards & Other Emergencies – Communications staff worked with the City’s Office of Emergency Services on public outreach about earthquake safety and emergency preparedness following recent earthquakes in Southern California. Unfortunate incidents like these natural disasters remind us of the importance to be prepared for emergencies at any time. The City offers many resources at cityofpaloalto.org/preparedness to help people stay informed and ready. Municipal Service Center Open House – On July 5, the City hosted an Open House at the Municipal Services Center to showcase some of the “behind the scenes” work that we do for the Palo Alto community. The event included special project demonstrations from Utilities and other City departments along with games, prizes, music, food, and a dunk tank for City management. More than 400 attendees were able to visit with staff and learn about City services in a fun environment. Utilities Rate Changes - On June 17, City Council approved rate changes for the electric, gas, wastewater and water utilities, which became effective on July 1. CPAU provided public outreach during the rate proposal phase and after rates were adopted, including a Utility Bill Insert delivered to customers in July. We thank the UAC for their advisement on the financial plans and rate proposals this year. Walking and Mobile Gas Leak Surveys in Progress - This routine inspection of our gas distribution system is conducted every year to ensure the safety of all who live and work in Palo Alto. You can view a map of this year’s survey areas on the Utilities website at cityofpaloalto.org/utilities Utility Work at Churchill – In conjunction with the Caltrain electrification project, electric lines will need to be raised along the rail line. At Churchill, new holes for power poles were bored, and streets and sidewalks are being restored. Construction is scheduled for completion on Friday. Update of Utilities Strategic Plan – An update for the period January-June 2019 is available. At an all-hands meeting, CPAU employees received power packs and encouragement to join an internal working group. Fiber to the Node - On June 24, 2019, the City Council authorized staff to change the scope of work for the Fiber Request for Proposals (RFP) and to sunset the Community Advisory Committee. Hopefully, the RFP will be issued by the end of August. COMMISSIONER COMMENTS None. UNFINISHED BUSINESS None. Utilities Advisory Commission Minutes Approved on: September 04, 2019 Page 3 of 10 NEW BUSINESS ITEM 1: DISCUSSION: Discussion of Renewable Portfolio Standard Compliance Strategy Options for the City's Electric Supply Portfolio. Jim Stack, Senior Resource Planner, reported in May and June staff presented a comparison of annual and hourly carbon accounting. The UAC seemed to agree that the hourly approach to carbon accounting is appropriate for CPAU because it is more granular and accurate. With UAC approval, staff will present an amendment to the Carbon Neutral Plan that the UAC may recommend the Council approve. Chair Danaher confirmed the UAC's consensus for an hourly carbon accounting methodology. Stack continued the presentation, stating in June staff presented a list of options for complying with Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) requirements. Because load has been dropping in recent years, CPAU has a surplus of overall resources. Staff has suggested CPAU sell excess resources, which would result in an average savings of $1.2 million annually over the next 12 years. In reply to Commissioner Johnston's inquiry regarding the actions necessary to sell excess resources, Stack advised that staff would sell the output of the contracts to other utilities on a short-term basis. Once staff is aware of hydroelectric conditions and certain that excess resources will be available, staff will sell excess resources on a monthly or quarterly basis. Under existing policy, staff can implement the strategy upon approval. Commissioner Smith remarked that timing of the sale of resources is important. Chair Danaher confirmed the UAC's consensus for selling excess resources. Stack further stated the strategy of "carbon neutral every hour" would involve selling probably all solar resources, replacing them with baseload renewable resources, and changing the dispatching of hydroelectric resources. This strategy will be cost in the range of $7 million annually \. This strategy would likely not have a net impact on carbon emissions and could increase emissions. Staff recommends the UAC not consider this approach further. Chair Danaher confirmed the UAC's consensus for eliminating the "carbon neutral every hour" approach from consideration. Stack further recalled that staff presented a strategy of minimal compliance, which would result in significant cost savings. The strategy involves maximizing the replacement of in-state renewable resources with out-of- state resources and using banked Renewable Energy Certificates (REC). Given the potential public perception that CPAU's portfolio is dirtier than allowed under State requirements, staff recommends no further discussion of utilizing banked RECs. Commissioner Johnston noted his skepticism of using banked RECs and his agreement with selling resources in excess of load. In answer to Commissioner Johnston's question about the use of banked RECs, Stack explained that if staff sells only the resources in excess of load, CPAU would remain well above the compliance requirement, and the number of banked RECs would continue to increase. Commissioner Johnston suggested the UAC discuss selling some of the RECs. In reply to Chair Danaher's request for the number and market value of banked RECs, Stack indicated the number of banked RECs is 1.2 million. Their market value is roughly $25 million. To monetize banked RECs, staff would apply older banked RECs to requirements in 2020, for example, and sell RECs generated in 2020 to other utilities. CPAU would comply with its RPS requirement, but its Power Content Label (PCL) would reflect zero renewables for 2020 because RECs are not reflected in the PCL. Jonathan Abendschein, Assistant Director of Utilities Resource Management, explained that CPAU cannot sell banked RECs directly. CPAU Utilities Advisory Commission Minutes Approved on: September 04, 2019 Page 4 of 10 could sell more of its in-state renewables or trade them for out-of-state renewables. Stack added that the State does not recognize the value of out-of-state RECs in the PCL. In answer to Commissioner Smith's query regarding the use of banked RECs in a programmed manner, Stack noted in June staff suggested using the RECs over 12 years. Each year, CPAU would appear to fall short of the compliance requirement, but in actuality CPAU would be in compliance through use of the previous year's RECs. Abendschein suggested the UAC hear the next component of staff's proposal and return to a discussion of banked RECs with that information in mind. Chair Danaher concurred. Stack continued the presentation, stating in 2003 CPAU began adding renewable energy supplies to its portfolio. For 2019, more than 60 percent of the portfolio is composed of renewables. Renewable energy supplies exceed the State's requirement by about a 2:1 margin. Because of the large amount of hydroelectric supply in its portfolio, CPAU qualifies for a State exemption such that the portfolio may contain less renewable supply than other utilities' portfolios. Vice Chair Forssell noted the amount of wind power and landfill gas power shown in the graph is diminishing and requested the reason for that. Stack advised that the decreasing amounts reflect the expiration of CPAU's contracts for those resources. Stack further reported staff does not recommend continuing the current compliance strategy, which generates on average a 10 percent surplus each year. One option is to sell a portion of excess supply to serve load or to comply with the Carbon Neutral Plan. Under this option, CPAU would retain 4.5 percent of the total surplus in order to maintain its carbon neutral status under the hourly accounting approach. Another option is to sell all renewables and exceed the RPS requirement levels and purchase bucket 3 resources or out-of- state renewables. Under this option, renewable resources or hydroelectric resources would equal 100 percent of load, but 25 percent of resources would be out-of-state renewables. The PCL would depict the out-of-state renewables as unspecified resources. If business as usual continues, supply costs would not change, and the RPS level would average about 60 percent over the next 12 years. The current portfolio would have negative emissions under the annual and hourly carbon accounting methodologies. Under the option to sell a portion of excess supply, CPAU would realize about $1.2 million in cost savings annually; the surplus would decrease from 10 percent to 4.5 percent; the rate impact would be approximately 0.7 percent; and the RPS level would decrease to 51 percent. An hourly carbon accounting methodology would result in no emissions, and the PCL would reflect negative emissions. The option to sell all renewables above the RPS requirement would generate an additional $1.9 million in savings for a total savings of $3.1 million. This option would have an approximate 2 percent rate impact, but the RPS level would decrease to 40 percent. Hourly accounting would result in an emissions intensity of approximately 137 pounds per MWh, but that could be offset with the purchase of additional bucket 3 RECs. The PCL would reflect 97 pounds per MWh. In reply to Commissioner Segal's inquiry regarding the use of cost savings, Stack related that the savings could be returned to customers through a rate reduction or applied to other types of decarbonization efforts. Stack continued the presentation, stating an emissions intensity of 97 pounds per MWh is much cleaner than the grid average, which is around 400 or 500 pounds per MWh. In response to Chair Danaher's query regarding adding information to the PCL, Stack indicated CPAU cannot add text to the PCL but can provide supplemental material to customers through bill inserts. Stack continued the presentation, stating a hybrid approach would allow customers to choose one of two or more rates, similar to the PaloAltoGreen program. Customers could select a premium rate based on the current portfolio or a more expensive "carbon neutral every hour" portfolio or a lower-cost rate based on the option to sell supplies that exceed the RPS requirement. Challenges to a hybrid approach are selection of Utilities Advisory Commission Minutes Approved on: September 04, 2019 Page 5 of 10 a default rate, public messaging, confusion and frustration for customers, uncertainty around supply needs; and implementation costs. Chair Danaher requested staff omit further presentation of the hybrid option as the UAC is not interested in it. Stack advised that staff will return to the UAC with a formal request for a recommendation to Council regarding an amendment of the Carbon Neutral Plan to allow an hourly carbon accounting methodology. Staff may return to the UAC with additional RPS strategies. If there is interest in pursuing an approach to sell more bucket 1 resources and purchase bucket 3 resources, staff will seek feedback from the environmental community. Staff will begin selling resources that exceed load and are not required for carbon neutrality. In 2020, staff will present longer-term decisions for the portfolio. Lena Perkins, Acting Senior Resource Planner, explained that current research indicates up to about 25 percent of trading of RECs within the western interconnect (WIC) has no net effect on total carbon emissions but does lower the costs of electricity across the interconnect. For the same impact on carbon, utilities can save $3 million a year by trading RECs. On a dollars per carbon basis, trading RECs is the most efficient option. If costs are kept low, more states and entities could potentially adopt RPS. Anecdotal and emerging research supports the theory that investors may retire nonrenewable power sources such as coal-fired plants sooner. Chair Danaher commented that if the choice is between buying in-state and out-of-state renewable energy resources, out-of-state would be cheaper. The disadvantage is the reflection of it on the PCL. Vice Chair Forssell understood the models are recommending a limit of 25 percent on bucket 3 RECs because the WIC would have flexibility to harvest financial benefits without affecting carbon emissions. Perkins clarified that California allows 15 percent of the RPS to be bucket 2 RECs, which are out-of-state RECs and RECs not scheduled in the Independent System Operator (ISO). Between buckets 2 and 3, California allows 25 percent of the RPS to be out-of-state resources. In reply to Vice Chair Forssell's question regarding 25 percent of out-of-state resources, Stack believed the 25 percent number comes from the State limit on out- of-state resources rather than the research. In response to Commissioner Segal's query regarding bucket 2 and bucket 3 RECs in the pie chart, Stack indicated the pie chart assumes no bucket 2 RECs but maximizing the amount of bucket 3 RECs. Staff could present an option to sell even more bucket 1 RECs and purchase bucket 2 RECs. In reply to Commissioner Segal's request for the rationale, Perkins explained that the UAC has expressed concern that the public could view it as backtracking. Abendschein added that the full range of options presented in June are theoretically on the table. Commissioner Scharff remarked that selling a portion of excess supply is preferable to continuing the current portfolio. He suggested selling all renewables is better for the environment, but the public perception is worse. Stack clarified that selling all renewables is a better option if the cost savings are used to implement local decarbonization efforts. In answer to Commissioner Scharff's question of which option is superior from an environmental point of view if the cost savings are not used for local decarbonization, Stack reported selling a portion of excess supply and selling all renewables are probably equivalent. In response to Commissioner Scharff's question of the issue being the public's perception of Palo Alto's electricity being carbon neutral, Dean Batchelor, Utilities Director, concurred. In answer to Commissioner Smith's inquiry of why selling a portion of excess supply is not as good as selling all renewables if cost savings are allocated to electrification infrastructure, Perkins reported the decision comes down to the amount of cost-effective carbon savings locally and the dollars per ton avoided locally. In reply to Commissioner Smith's query regarding the sale of a portion of excess supply leading to cost savings and the elimination of coal-fired plants and dirty power, Perkins agreed that it could lead to those results, but the sale of a portion of excess supply is more expensive than the sale of all renewables if local investments Utilities Advisory Commission Minutes Approved on: September 04, 2019 Page 6 of 10 are ignored. Commissioner Smith asked if it would be more expensive for the CPAU's retail customers. Perkins responded yes, $1.9 million more expensive for CPAU's retail customers and more expensive for other ISO and WIC customers overall. Commissioner Jackson advised that his perception in June was that Commissioners were more comfortable with the strategy of selling a portion of excess supply. He was apprehensive about the strategy to sell all renewables because of concerns about CPAU power not appearing carbon neutral. He wanted to review the research materials before reaching a conclusion. Commissioner Scharff suggested CPAU move immediately to a strategy of selling a portion of excess supply while staff explores the sale of all renewables. Staff could develop messaging that is not too complicated and that CPAU would continue to be green. Commissioner Johnston commented that Palo Alto residents are proud of CPAU being carbon neutral. CPAU needs a simple and persuasive explanation for the public. He expressed interest in learning the reaction of the environmental community to the strategies. He supported the sale of excess supply while staff explores a strategy to sell all renewables and messaging to explain the strategy. Commissioner Smith understood that buying RECs from other states spreads the knowledge that buying renewables is good for the planet, but the pounds of carbon by MWh is troublesome. CPAU can offset that with RECs, but offsetting does not represent CPAU's actions. Until the State changes the PCL to reflect out- of-state renewables, advocating for their purchase is difficult. Chair Danaher did not understand the significance of the state boundary in that solar power from San Diego is no more local to Palo Alto than wind power from Wyoming, and one does not provide greater savings for the atmosphere than the other. The UAC's responsibility should be carbon neutrality at the lowest possible cost. A monthly bill insert could state Palo Alto is carbon neutral and the percentages of renewable energy, and explain that CPAU is obtaining renewables from out of state. The bill insert could also explain the PCL by saying it is an accounting methodology that ignores clean energy purchased out of state and does not reflect the actual situation. He recommended staff not allow presentational issues to prevent a savings of $2 million for ratepayers if the options are equally green. He requested staff inquire about environmental groups' opinions regarding state boundaries and obtaining renewable energy. Commissioner Segal noted CPAU could save money by selling all renewables and could have a bigger net effect in whether greenhouse gases come from Palo Alto, Wyoming, or Missouri. If CPAU can cumulatively reduce emissions by retiring coal plants earlier, the messaging can state not only is CPAU keeping Palo Alto clean but it is contributing beyond Palo Alto's borders. Vice Chair Forssell was less concerned with the community's perception because she was unsure of the number of residents who read the PCL. She was more concerned about the public perception of Palo Alto as a role model. She expressed interest in taking another look at resources procured directly and being thoughtful about the mix of things CPAU is controlling more directly. Stack advised that staff will present some options around new contracts for wind or other resources next year when discussing renewal of the Western contract. Last year, staff reviewed options such as wind power from New Mexico, which appears to be low cost and a good complement to hydroelectric resources. Chair Danaher noted the 2017 PCL states the power mix as 100 percent hydroelectric and renewable. The column labeled California power mix states 34 percent natural gas and 4 percent coal. Clearly, the UAC supports selling a portion of excess supply and exploring the sale of all renewables. Commissioner Scharff felt the ability to state CPAU power is carbon neutral and to explain how it is carbon neutral is important. Support from environmental groups will be helpful. Utilities Advisory Commission Minutes Approved on: September 04, 2019 Page 7 of 10 Abendschein indicated staff will consider the use of banked RECs in the context of a strategy to sell all renewables. ACTION: None ITEM 2: DISCUSSION: Discussion of Palo Alto's Water Supply Reliability. Jonathan Abendschein, Assistant Director of Resource Management, reported CPAU has some opportunities in the coming year or two to review options for improving water supply reliability through Bay Area Water Supply and Conservation Authority (BAWSCA). Staff wishes to obtain some sense of the value of water supply reliability to the community. Lisa Bilir, Resource Planner, requested feedback regarding the sufficiency of Palo Alto's water supply reliability during a drought and the amount customers are willing to pay for greater water supply reliability during drought. She requested the UAC's input regarding the community's interest in supplementing the current water supply reliability during drought. CPAU receives 100 percent of its potable water supply from the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission (SFPUC). The City uses some recycled water at City facilities. CPAU has eight emergency water wells and seven storage reservoirs. During the last drought, the State mandatory cutback level was 24 percent, and water customers conserved 31.4 percent during the cutback period. Some temporary restrictions implemented during the drought became permanent restrictions after the drought. Since the last drought, water consumption has not increased to pre-drought levels. In 2019, BAWSCA customers' consumption has been approximately 8 percent lower than in 2013. In reply to Chair Danaher's question about high rainfall amounts contributing to reduced consumption, Bilir suggested the temporary restrictions that became permanent may have contributed to reduced consumption. Bilir further reported in the first half of fiscal year 2019 Palo Alto customers reduced their consumption by almost 11 percent from 2013 consumption. CPAU implemented a drought surcharge during the drought, but it has been removed. One of SFPUC's level of service goals is not to have more than a 20-percent cutback during a drought. SFPUC plans for an 8.5-year dry period based on actual conditions from the 1987-92 and 1976-77 droughts combined. During a drought, SFPUC allocates water approximately one-third to SFPUC retail customers and two-thirds to wholesale customers through the Tier 1 Plan. Water is allocated among wholesale customers through the Tier 2 Plan. Tier 1 and 2 Plans become effective when the SFPUC declares a 20-percent shortage. SFPUC did not declare a shortage in the recent drought because the State mandated reductions. In reply to Commissioner Scharff's request for additional details regarding SFPUC not declaring a shortage in the recent drought, Bilir explained that in an unprecedented move, the State set reductions for each urban retail water supplier in the state. Under the State reductions, Palo Alto was required to reduce usage by 24 percent. Staff does not believe the State will mandate reductions in the future. Karla Dailey, Senior Resource Planner, added that the State has indicated it prefers not to mandate reductions in the future. The State has moved toward a regulatory framework of conservation as a way of life. Bilir continued the presentation, stating CPAU usage levels have decreased slightly in 2019. A 23-percent reduction from the levels of 2018 or 2019 may be harder to achieve in the future because it would require reducing usage to a historically low level. The historical record indicates more serious droughts have occurred in the past and have lasted for ten or more years. With climate change as a factor, future water shortages may be more frequent and more severe. In answer to Chair Danaher's question about future reductions taken from the 2013 or 2018 usage levels, Bilir advised that the reduction would be based on water usage in the most recent non-drought year. The usage from the most recent non-drought year assumes many conservation measures. Utilities Advisory Commission Minutes Approved on: September 04, 2019 Page 8 of 10 In reply to Commissioner Scharff's inquiry regarding the ability to comply with future reductions because of ongoing conservation measures, Dailey concurred in part that ongoing conservation does make future reductions difficult. If all users decrease consumption in a drought, the limited amount of water available will serve more users. CPAU will be subject to State regulations and will have to comply with some conservation targets. In answer to Commissioner Scharff's query regarding additional measures residents could implement, Dailey advised that the State will provide new targets that CPAU will have to meet over a long time period. CPAU will have to continue aggressive conservation measures. Vice Chair Forssell remarked that if all communities are reducing usage, the likelihood that a cutback is triggered decreases. Abendschein added that climate change and regulatory changes could offset the impacts of decreased consumption and lead to similar or worse drought cutbacks. Chair Danaher reiterated that a 23-percent cutback will be more difficult to achieve now than in 2013. Bilir continued the presentation by requesting the UAC consider the following questions: (1) is a 23-percent water use reduction during a drought enough supply reliability; (2) can the community sustain a 23-percent reduction; and (3) if Palo Alto could participate in a project that limited water use reductions to 20 percent or less, would the community be interested in such a program and at what cost to the community. BAWSCA has determined there will be additional water needs in dry years and identified strategies of water transfers and storage to meet the additional needs. In Palo Alto, water conservation and efficiency programs continue. Staff is investigating water reuse and use of groundwater. Preliminary studies estimate about 20 percent of the potable groundwater supply could be pumped; however, the use of groundwater may be restricted during multiyear droughts. Commissioner Smith questioned whether a decrease of 23 percent to 20 percent would be a significant reduction. Dailey advised that discussions have focused on a 5 percent change, such as 23 percent to 18 percent. The Water Shortage Contingency Plan implements different measures at different levels. In response to Commissioner Johnston's inquiry regarding the source of the additional water for which CPAU pays, Dailey indicated the source may be water transfers or water storage. CPAU could contribute funds to a water storage project and receive rights to use the water. BAWSCA has been focusing on projects for dry years versus projects such as a desalinization plant. Commissioner Scharff commented that providing feedback is difficult in the absence of a project. The water purification project at the Regional Water Quality Treatment Plant is a long-term and interesting project. Having more water security would be worth an additional cost. In his experience, the out years of water protection are the most expensive, and the marginal return on that often begins to deteriorate. Perhaps CPAU could build its own water storage facility. Commissioner Segal expressed interest in a breakdown of water usage between commercial and residential and between indoor and outdoor and whether an individual ratepayer has any control over how his conservation efforts are applied. Bilir related that 72 percent of water is consumed for indoor uses. Commissioner Smith commented that the discussion concerns making the community resilient against something that might happen. In answer to his query regarding the use of graywater for irrigation, Dailey indicated CPAU offers programs to assist customers with installing graywater systems and with lawn replacement. In response to his inquiry regarding encouraging programs that create a resilient community or that store water, Dailey reported CPAU will continue to pursue conservation programs. Water consumption for outdoor uses in Palo Alto likely exceeds the amount the State will mandate. The question for the UAC concerns whether SFPUC's level of service goal is sufficient for Palo Alto or does the community want additional water supply so that it does not have to reduce as much as required. Abendschein explained that the 23-percent cutback is relative to the usage level. The 23-percent cutback applies to the amount of water Utilities Advisory Commission Minutes Approved on: September 04, 2019 Page 9 of 10 imported; therefore, alternative water resources can reduce the amount of water imported and lead to compliance with the cutback. Commissioner Smith encouraged staff to explore creating or identifying alternative water sources. In reply to Vice Chair Forssell's inquiry about mandated cutbacks being gradual, Bilir explained that SFPUC's Tier 1 and 2 Plans are in place for droughts that result in a 20-percent water shortage. SFPUC level of service goal is not to require cutbacks greater than 20 percent. A cutback could be 5 percent or 10 percent. The Tier 2 plan for allocating water to wholesale customers does not apply to shortages greater than 20 percent. If a shortage is declared greater than 20 percent, the allocation of water will have to be determined. Vice Chair Forssell requested time to discuss the issues with neighbors before providing input to staff's questions. Commissioner Scharff believed Palo Alto's landscaping infrastructure, particularly the canopy, should be protected. The amount of water consumption correlates directly to the size of residents' lots. Dailey explained that communities with more outdoor irrigation reduce consumption more. The extra 5 percent could be used for irrigation. She questioned whether the community would value being able to irrigate landscape an additional day per week during a drought. Commissioner Scharff felt most customers would support a 2 percent rate increase if they knew they would have water to protect the canopy. Chair Danaher expressed interest in having a ranking of projects based on cost effectiveness. Another cutback is going to be difficult to achieve. Perhaps staff could encourage the State to utilize a base year of 2013 for future cutbacks so that communities are not punished for ongoing conservation efforts. ACTION: None ITEM 3: DISCUSSION: Discussion of Outreach and Response Required for Wildfire Safety, PG&E Public Safety Power Shutoff Program, and Local Outages. Catherine Elvert, Communications Manager, reported staff has been communicating with PG&E and other stakeholders to understand the potential impacts of PG&E's Public Safety Power Shutoff Program. PG&E has been communicating its plans to de-energize powerlines when conditions pose a high risk for wildfire related to utility infrastructure. CPAU takes electricity from PG&E's major transmission lines. If PG&E shuts down a major transmission line that serves Palo Alto, there could be impacts to CPAU's power supply. In the event of a statewide incident, Palo Alto could be impacted by rolling blackouts. CPAU is working with partners and other utilities to understand the program's effects; to establish clear communication with PG&E and protocols for PG&E's notifications; and to develop local communication plans to inform customers. PG&E hopes to provide a notice 24-48 hours in advance of a shutoff, but PG&E cannot guarantee this. The Foothills area is probably most at risk for wildfire conditions. CPAU will make decisions regarding the Foothills area based on the best interests and safety of customers and on staff's knowledge of infrastructure in the area. CPAU is taking measures to mitigate the potential for wildfire. Staff is developing a Wildfire Mitigation Plan, which may be complete by the end of the year. Chair Danaher advised that backup power sources for hospitals, public safety, and the like are in place. Perhaps PG&E could provide a map of the service area for each transmission line so that staff could make its own decisions. PG&E shutting down a transmission line 100 miles away from Palo Alto may impact the amount of power that is provided to Palo Alto's grid. In response to Commissioner Scharff's question about Palo Alto receiving all or no power, Dean Batchelor, Utilities Director, advised that PG&E may move reduced capacity among transmission lines such that cities along the transmission lines have rolling blackouts. In answer to Commissioner Segal's question about the Foothills area, Batchelor related that the line in the Foothills area is not a transmission line. It serves the 70 customers in the Foothills area. Staff will install a switch at the base of the line so that power can be shut off and will explore relocating the line. Utilities Advisory Commission Minutes Approved on: September 04, 2019 Page 10 of 10 In reply to Commissioner Johnston's inquiry about the amount of CPAU's electric generation and whether it is dedicated to specific uses, Batchelor indicated CPAU has four units that can provide 5 MW of service. On a typical day, customers utilize 180 MW. The generators require some power in order to start. He has asked staff to develop a cost for bringing 50-60 MW of power into the City. In response to Vice Chair Forssell's inquiry regarding the percentage of load that is commercial versus residential, Elvert responded 85 percent commercial and 15 percent residential. Commercial customers will likely provide the 25-30 percent curtailment. Dedicated key account representatives communicate directly with the responsible people at large business customers; therefore, CPAU should be able to shed load quickly by communicating with the large customers. ACTION: None ITEM 4: ACTION: Selection of Potential Topic(s) at Future UAC Meetings. Commissioner Johnston suggested a discussion of recycled water include recycled water as an alternative water resource during a drought. Commissioner Segal requested information regarding the impact of recycled water on water quality and a tutorial regarding the rights to use utility poles and placement of wireless facilities on utility poles. In reply to Vice Chair Forssell's question, Dean Batchelor, Utilities Director, reported plans for a resiliency workshop are tentative. Chair Danaher requested an update regarding networking or futureproofing electric vehicle (EV) charging and an update regarding staffing. Batchelor advised that the number of vacant positions has dropped from 44-45 to 32. Critical positions have not been filled. The majority of vacant positions are in the Electric Utility. ACTION: None NEXT SCHEDULED MEETING: September 4, 2019 Meeting adjourned at 9:10 p.m. Respectfully Submitted Tabatha Boatwright City of Palo Alto Utilities Page 1 of 19 1 MEMORANDUM TO: UTILITIES ADVISORY COMMISSION FROM: UTILITIES DEPARTMENT DATE: August 7, 2019 SUBJECT: Renewable Portfolio Standard Compliance Strategy Options for the City’s Electric Supply Portfolio ______________________________________________________________________________ REQUEST Staff is requesting that the UAC affirm that the following portfolio management strategies and actions are in line with UAC policy positions: (1) Sell renewable energy supplies that exceed the City’s total load on an annual basis to reduce costs to consumers; (2) Pursue Council adoption of an amendment to the Carbon Neutral Plan to adopt an hourly carbon emissions accounting methodology, with average hourly grid emissions factors; (3) Do not consider a portfolio management strategy in which the City attempts to buy renewable energy to match its load in every hour of the year (the “Carbon Neutral every hour” approach); and (4) Do not consider an RPS compliance strategy that involves relying on the City’s stock of “banked” RECs from previous years. Staff intends to pursue item 1 under its existing Council authorities and is seeking confirmation that the UAC agrees. Staff will return to the UAC with a proposed amendment to the Carbon Neutral Plan at a subsequent meeting to implement item 2. Staff intends to cease consideration of the “Carbon Neutral every hour” approach and the use of banked RECs and is seeking confirmation that the UAC is comfortable with that. Additionally, staff seeks additional UAC feedback on a staff proposal to pursue a portfolio management strategy of selling CPAU’s California-based renewable energy (i.e., Bucket 1 RECs) which is not needed for RPS compliance, and purchasing lower-cost renewable energy generated outside of California (Bucket 3 RECs)1. Staff estimates that this policy could free up 1 State law has established three different categories or “buckets” of renewable energy products—and sets limits on the degree to which a utility can rely on the less preferred categories to fulfill their RPS requirements. The first category (Bucket 1), the most preferred one, encompasses all renewable energy that is delivered into the California grid as it is generated. The second type of renewable energy (Bucket 2) consists of renewable energy generated out-of-state that is used by the out-of-state grid as it is generated, and then later an equal amount of energy from a different resource is delivered into the California grid. This type of arrangement is referred to as “firming and shaping” the resource’s output. The third category of renewable energy (Bucket 3) is the state’s least preferred one, and also the least expensive to procure. Bucket 3 encompasses all sales of RECs without any associated energy. In these “unbundled REC” transactions, the energy is generated and consumed (usually out-of- Page 2 of 19 about $3M per year for sustainability efforts that benefit electric ratepayers, without raising rates or increasing carbon emissions of the electric portfolio. Based on UAC feedback staff may continue analysis of this option and return to the UAC at a later date with a more formal proposal. Note that staff also considered the possibility of using this projected revenue for rate reduction, but heard feedback from the UAC at a previous meeting that reducing rates 1-2% in exchange for creating a portfolio that might be perceived as less green was not preferred. Lastly, staff seeks UAC feedback on the possibility of reintroducing a “green rate” option for consumers. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report is a follow-up to a report presented in June 2019 on the same topics—and that report was actually an extension of a similar report presented in May 2019. Together, these reports satisfy Initiatives #4 and #5 of the City’s 2018 Electric Integrated Resource Plan (EIRP)2, which Council approved in December 2018. This report goes into some detail on the background behind the adoption of the City’s current policies related to carbon accounting and RPS procurement. It then describes several different procurement strategies that the City might pursue in order to comply with its state RPS requirements—though a narrower set of options than staff presented in the June 2019 report— along with the financial impact to the utility of changing from its current RPS compliance strategy. Also presented are the implications for the City’s carbon emissions associated with these RPS compliance strategy options. Staff sees one RPS compliance strategy, selling renewable energy that exceeds load (and which are not needed for maintaining carbon neutrality under an hourly accounting framework), as clearly worth pursuing. This strategy results in an average annual savings of $1.2 million per year over the next twelve years (or about 0.13 cents/kWh, equivalent to a 0.7% rate change). A second strategy, selling renewable energy in excess of state RPS requirements, merits more discussion and analysis, but could free up an additional $1.9 million per year to devote to carbon reduction programs that benefit electric ratepayers over the next twelve years without increasing portfolio carbon emissions. Finally, staff seeks UAC validation of the four strategies and actions listed above that appeared to garner consensus at the May and June 2019 UAC meetings. state) but the RECs are sold separately to a California utility. Technically Bucket 3 RECs can be located in California, but virtually all Bucket 3 RECs are generated outside the state. 2 Initiative #4 of the Work Plan called for staff to evaluate the carbon content of the electric supply portfolio using hourly grid emissions intensity data, to consider the merits of buying carbon offsets to ensure the carbon content of the cumulative hourly portfolio is zero on an annual basis, and to reevaluate the manner in which the City communicates with customers about the carbon content of the electric portfolio. Initiative #5 of the Work Plan called for staff to investigate the merits of monetizing the City’s excess renewable energy supplies in order to minimize the cost of maintaining an RPS compliant and carbon neutral electricity supply portfolio. Page 3 of 19 BACKGROUND Over the past two years, staff has shared numerous presentations with the UAC related to the electric supply portfolio in the course of developing and implementing the 2018 Electric Integrated Resource Plan (EIRP). In the course of these discussions, UAC commissioners have clearly articulated two points. First, the UAC would like staff to pursue a supply portfolio that minimizes total cost to customers, while also minimizing carbon emissions. While in the past the City’s goal was to increase the amount of renewable energy in its portfolio (its RPS level), the fact that City has reached carbon neutrality has led the UAC to recommend pursuing a policy of maintaining carbon neutrality going forward while calculating the portfolio’s carbon impact based on hourly and seasonal grid emissions. This point was made most clearly in December 2017, when staff delivered a report to the UAC on potential changes the City could make to its strategy for complying with its Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) and Carbon Neutral Plan objectives. And second, the UAC wants staff to communicate with the public about the supply portfolio in a manner that is both accurate and accessible. Initial discussion on this topic occurred in June and September 2018 during discussions of the EIRP. A more in-depth discussion of this topic also occurred in May 2019 during discussion of carbon accounting methodologies for the City’s electric portfolio. The May 2019 report also described a new accounting methodology being proposed by California Energy Commission (CEC) staff for quantifying emissions on Power Content Labels (PCLs) starting next year. Staff described the communications challenges that could result if the City adopts an accounting methodology that is at odds with the methodology used on the PCLs that are sent to customers every year. However, the UAC expressed a clear preference for employing an accounting methodology that most accurately represents the carbon emissions of the electric portfolio, even if it results in the reporting of two different portfolio emissions totals in some years. When the Carbon Neutral Plan was approved by Council in March 2013, carbon neutrality was defined as a portfolio that “will demonstrate annual net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, measured at the Citygate, in accordance with The Climate Registry’s Electric Power Sector protocol for GHG emissions measurement and reporting.” In effect, this means that the City’s carbon neutral supplies (in megawatt-hours (MWh)) would be compared with the City’s total load on an annual basis, and if they equal or exceed the load then the City’s electric supply would be deemed to be carbon neutral. At the time, this accounting methodology was considered to be the most accurate accounting methodology that could be achieved—or needed. This was in part because in 2013 there was very little solar generation connected to the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) grid, and therefore the grid’s average emissions factors did not vary in the extreme manner that they do today—for example, as in the emissions rate chart shown in Figure 1 below, for CAISO emissions on March 16, 2019. But, more practically, CAISO did not begin to publish grid emissions factor data with sub-annual granularity until 2018, and therefore a more granular accounting methodology was not feasible at that time. Page 4 of 19 Figure 1: CAISO Average CO2 Emissions Rates for March 16, 2019 The City also has a state-mandated RPS procurement policy (from Senate Bill 100) separate from the Carbon Neutral Plan. The last time the Council formally considered a significant change to these policies was in April 2012—at a time when the City’s RPS level was approximately 20%, and it had no large-scale solar generation in its portfolio. The modification that Council made to the City’s RPS policy in April 2012 was to clarify that the City’s then RPS target of 33% was a floor, not a ceiling, and that staff should continue to pursue additional renewable energy supplies until it reached the 0.5 cent/kWh rate impact limit on such purchases. In pursuing this policy staff achieved the current RPS levels. Due to long-term permanent load reductions in recent years, RPS-eligible energy supplies (all supply sources other than hydro) are currently more than 60% of retail energy sales, and combined with the City’s hydroelectric generation, total renewable and carbon free energy is approximately 111% of load in an average hydro year. When the UAC considered RPS procurement policies in December 2011, some commissioners discussed alternative possibilities for the funds that would be required to make these purchases. One commissioner even brought up the idea of “bucket swapping” (i.e., selling the City’s Bucket 1 renewables and replacing them with less expensive Bucket 3 resources) and applying the resulting savings to other carbon mitigation measures, which is an idea that staff and the UAC have again considered recently. However, ultimately the UAC recommended pursuing additional renewable energy purchases as the most direct route to ensuring a reduction in the City’s electric supply-related carbon emissions. It should be noted, however, that this policy discussion did not consider the possibility of making renewable energy purchases in excess of the City’s load; Section B(1) of the City’s 2018 Energy Risk Management Policy prohibits buying energy not needed for meeting forecasted load. The current scenario, Page 5 of 19 where long-term permanent load reductions result in the City having regular supply surpluses, was not discussed. DISCUSSION At the May and June 2019 UAC meetings, staff and the UAC discussed a wide range of potential changes to the City’s carbon accounting methodology and renewable energy procurement strategy. At the May meeting, Commissioners expressed a strong desire to see estimates of the financial impact of any changes to the City’s current approaches on these matters. The June report presented estimates of the financial effects of a broad range of potential changes to the City’s carbon accounting and RPS procurement policies—as well as their impact on the City’s RPS level and Power Content Label. The primary objective of this report is to enable a more thorough discussion of a narrower set of RPS compliance strategy options. Carbon Accounting Methodology Change In the May and June 2019 UAC reports on carbon accounting, staff presented six potential accounting methodologies: A. The City’s Current Method (Method A) – Procure carbon neutral resources equal to total load on an annual basis. In addition, unbundled RECs can be purchased in order to make generic market energy purchases effectively carbon neutral. B. The Proposed Power Content Label (PCL) Method (Method B) – The CEC has proposed an accounting methodology, in order to implement Assembly Bill (AB) 1110,3 that is similar to the City’s current method (annual summation of resource supplies and load), except unbundled REC purchases would not be allowed to neutralize the carbon content of generic market energy purchases. C. Hourly Accounting Method #1 (Method C) –An hourly comparison of the City’s supplies and load, with each hourly net energy value assigned the average hourly carbon emissions intensity of the CAISO grid to convert it to an hourly emissions total. These hourly emissions totals would then be summed across the hours in a year. In addition, unbundled REC purchases would be allowed to neutralize the carbon content of generic market energy purchases. D. Hourly Accounting Method #2 (Method D) – This approach is the same as Hourly Accounting Method #1, except that unbundled REC purchases would not be allowed to neutralize the carbon content of generic market energy purchases. E. Hourly Accounting Method #1a (Method E) – Identical to Method C, except that it uses the grid’s marginal hourly emissions factors, instead of average. F. Hourly Accounting Method #2a (Method F) – Identical to Method D, except that it uses the grid’s marginal hourly emissions factors, instead of average. 3 AB 1110 (2016) requires that every load-serving entity (LSE) include an annual average carbon emissions intensity factor associated with its electricity supplies on its Power Content Label, starting with the 2019 PCL (which will be published in 2020). For details on the CEC’s proposed accounting methodology, see the latest draft regulations and rulemaking documents here: https://www.energy.ca.gov/power_source_disclosure/16-OIR-05/. Page 6 of 19 After much discussion at the May and June UAC meetings, it appeared that there was consensus among commissioners that the most accurate accounting method—the gold standard for measuring the environmental impact of our electric supply portfolio—was Method C, the hourly accounting methodology using average emissions intensity values, and that this is the approach the City should use going forward. And while this methodology would hold the City’s supply portfolio up to the strictest standard of emissions reporting, assuming that the City continues to use unbundled RECs to mitigate any residual emissions that are calculated using this approach, the cost impact would be relatively small. Based on previous UAC feedback, staff intends bring an amendment to the Carbon Neutral Plan to the UAC at a subsequent meeting for recommendation to Council for adoption. RPS Compliance Strategy Options Since the adoption of its first RPS target in 2002, the City has consistently maintained an RPS procurement goal that exceeds the statewide RPS mandate level, all while remaining under the City’s 0.5 cent/kWh rate impact limit for renewables purchases. Figure 2 illustrates the growth in the City’s RPS supplies over the past 15 years and how these supplies compare to the statewide RPS requirements. Note that the state’s RPS procurement legislation, Senate Bill 100, includes a provision that exempts municipal utilities from meeting the RPS requirement level in years when the utility has received greater than 40% of its retail sales from large hydro generation contracts that were effective as of January 1, 2018. Thus Figure 2 includes a “hydro- adjusted RPS requirement” line, showing the volume of renewable supplies that the City would need to comply with SB 100 if it retains its existing hydro supplies, including renewing the Western contract in 2025. Page 7 of 19 Figure 2: Palo Alto's RPS Supplies and Procurement Requirements For calendar year (CY) 2018, as Table 1 shows, the City’s actual RPS level was 63.9%—more than twice the state’s RPS requirement for that year of 29%. Table 1: 2018 RPS Procurement and RPS Level Retail Sales 888,033 Small Hydro 13,266 Landfill Gas 110,139 Wind 101,801 Solar 342,650 Renewables Total 567,856 RPS Level 63.9% In addition to exceeding statewide RPS procurement requirements, the City’s renewable supply portfolio is also composed entirely of higher-value in-state resources—where the environmental attribute (a Renewable Energy Certificate or “REC”) is “bundled” with the energy produced by the resource. In contrast, the state’s RPS regulations allow utilities to satisfy a portion of their procurement requirement (up to 10% of it) with lower value out-of-state resources. The June 2019 UAC report presented a fairly broad range of potential RPS strategies that the City could pursue—some of which would significantly increase the City’s electric supply costs, Page 8 of 19 and others that would significantly decrease it. After a thorough discussion of these options at the June UAC meeting, the four RPS procurement strategies that staff believes deserve further consideration are: a) Status Quo: Maintain the current set of resources in the City’s portfolio, and continue to have a net surplus of resources on an annual basis (assuming average hydro conditions) until some of the existing contracts expire or the City’s load increases. b) Sell Supplies Exceeding Load: This approach is similar to the Status Quo approach, except staff would sell off the renewable resources that exceed the City’s annual load— provided that those resources would not be needed to maintain a carbon neutral supply portfolio as determined using an hourly accounting methodology.4 Staff considers this a low-risk approach that will generate cost savings while maintaining carbon neutrality (based on hourly carbon accounting), and it intends to pursue this option under its existing authorities, unless the UAC and Council express a preference for the status quo approach of having renewable and carbon-free energy in excess of load. c) Sell Supplies Exceeding RPS Requirement: Under this approach, the City would sell off all of its currently contracted renewable resources that exceed the state’s RPS requirement level (not just those that exceed its load).5 The City would also “bucket swap,” essentially trading its California-based renewable energy (associated with Bucket 1 RECs) for out of state renewable energy (associated with Bucket 3 RECs), to the extent allowable under the state’s RPS regulations. This approach is similar to the “Minimally Compliant” approach discussed at the June UAC meeting, except the City would not apply its stock of excess RPS supplies that it has built up since 2010 6 toward its RPS requirements in future years. d) Premium Rate Option: This approach would involve allowing customers a choice of which rate they would like to be on—with a slight price discount for those customers choosing the “Sell Supplies Exceeding RPS Requirement” option. There are also other premium rate options that the City could consider offering customers, in addition to or instead of the two listed above. For example, customers could be given a rate option where they would be assured that their electricity supply is carbon neutral every hour of the year. At the June UAC meeting, staff also discussed a “Carbon Neutral Every Hour” approach, which would entail the most dramatic changes to the portfolio and be the most expensive to pursue. This approach would require the City to sell large volumes of its solar and wind resources, replacing them with baseload renewables, and also alter the scheduling of its hydroelectric 4 Staff’s carbon accounting analysis of calendar year 2018 indicates that the City will likely need to maintain an overall surplus of about 40,000 Bucket 1 RECs (4.5% of the City’s total load) in order to maintain a Carbon Neutral portfolio under an hourly carbon accounting approach, without resorting to purchasing additional Bucket 3 RECs. 5 The City would not, however, be purchasing any additional in-state renewable resources with the intent to sell them in exchange for out-of-state renewable resources. In addition to likely being a money-losing strategy, this approach would also violate the City’s anti-speculation policy. 6 This refers to the “Excess Procurement” and “Historic Carryover” provisions of the City’s Renewable Portfolio Standard Procurement Plan, which was last updated and approved by Council in December 2018 as part of the EIRP approval process: https://www.cityofpaloalto.org/civicax/filebank/documents/67789. Page 9 of 19 resources. However, staff did not recommend pursuing this approach, and there did not appear to be any support among the commissioners for continuing to discuss it. Therefore, staff seeks confirmation from the UAC that this approach can be dropped from consideration. Similarly, staff feels that the “Minimally Compliant” strategy—which would see the City rely on its large cache of banked RECs over the next 10 years—should no longer be considered. This approach would result in the City’s annual RPS level dropping significantly below the state’s RPS requirement level over the next 10 years. RPS compliance would instead be achieved by applying all of the City’s banked RECs toward RPS compliance, rather than reserving these as a form of compliance insurance. This practice, using “excess procurement” and “historic carryover” RECs, is permitted by state RPS regulations and the City’s RPS Procurement Plan, but its use in this manner could create public perception issues. Figure 3 below displays the annual supply cost savings (through 2030) of the “Sell Supplies Exceeding Load” and “Sell Supplies Exceeding RPS Requirement” procurement strategies. Note that the “Sell Supplies Exceeding RPS Requirement” procurement strategy line in this graph only represents the incremental supply cost savings associated with this approach, after the City has already sold the RPS supplies that exceed its load. Attachment A shows these cost projections (and staff’s estimates of REC costs) in more detail. Figure 3: Supply Cost Savings under Various RPS Compliance Strategies (2019-2030) Note that the downward trend in supply cost savings over time, as well as the dip in supply cost savings for 2022, is due to the timing of existing wind and landfill gas contracts expiring during Page 10 of 19 that period (combined with a new solar contract coming online in 2023), along with the increases in the state’s RPS requirement (which ultimately reaches 60% in 2030). As these existing contracts expire over time and the RPS requirement rises, the City would have fewer excess renewable supplies to sell. This analysis indicates that simply selling the City’s RPS supplies that exceed its annual load (while maintaining carbon neutrality under an hourly accounting standard) would reduce supply costs by an average of $1.2 million per year, while utilizing the “Sell Supplies Exceeding RPS Requirement” approach would reduce supply costs by an additional $1.9 million per year (on average) over this 12-year period. As noted in the June UAC report, the City also currently has about 1.2 million banked RECs from previous years, which it is able to carry over for RPS compliance in any future period. If the City were to utilize these banked RECs for compliance over the next 12 years (and therefore sell even more of its current portfolio of resources), it would result in approximately $2 million per year in additional cost savings. However, when this option was discussed at the June UAC meeting there did not appear to be any interest among commissioners in pursuing it, largely because it would result in the City having a real-time RPS level significantly below the state’s required level during this period. Staff seeks UAC validation that this option should no longer be considered. Figure 4 below depicts the trajectory that the City’s annual RPS level is expected to take between now and 2030 under the first three different RPS compliance strategies listed above. Figure 4: RPS Level under Various RPS Compliance Strategies (2019-2030) Page 11 of 19 Emissions Implications & Bucket 3 RECs The City’s current portfolio, because of its significant surplus of carbon neutral resources relative to load, is expected to be responsible for net negative carbon emissions over the next 12 years (under average hydro conditions), under either the annual carbon accounting or an hourly carbon accounting methodology.7 However, if the City sells most of its RPS supplies that exceed its load (retaining an overall surplus of supplies in order to ensure the portfolio remains carbon neutral under an hourly carbon accounting standard), the portfolio would be considered to be responsible for negative emissions under an annual accounting framework (-43 lb CO2/MWh on average over the 2019-2030 period), or exactly zero emissions under an hourly carbon accounting methodology. Similarly, if the City sold all of its RPS supplies that exceed the RPS requirement level, its portfolio would be considered to have an emissions intensity of 97 lb CO2/MWh on average over the 2019-2030 period under an annual accounting framework, or 137 lb CO2/MWh on average over the 2019-2030 period under an hourly carbon accounting methodology. Abating these emissions would require the purchase of about 129,000 RECs8 at a cost of about $193,000. Although the state’s Power Content Label regulations related to emissions reporting are not expected to recognize any emissions value associated with the purchase of out-of-state (Bucket 3) RECs, staff feels Bucket 3 RECs have significant environmental value and merit when used as a carbon mitigation tool in the City’s Carbon Neutral Plan. This is based in part on the fact that, aside from the state’s PCL regulations, all other industry accounting protocols recognize unbundled RECs as embodying the emissions profile of the underlying renewable generator. It is also based on a review of a large amount of academic research into the value of unbundled RECs—which indicates that trading RECs across state lines can reduce overall electricity costs without having a negative impact on overall carbon emissions in the region. Attachment B has much more detail on the relative environmental value of out-of-state and in-state RECs. Although staff is confident that the carbon emissions associated with the “Sell Supplies Exceeding RPS Requirement” approach should be considered zero (with the purchase of some Bucket 3 RECs), the state’s Power Content Label regulations are expected to require the City to report emissions associated with that portfolio. Beginning in 2020, the City is required to report the emissions associated with its electric supply on a Power Content Label every year (per AB 1110). Figure 5 below depicts the average supply portfolio carbon emissions intensities that the City would be required to report on its annual PCL between now and 2030 under the three different RPS compliance strategies listed above (assuming the state’s draft PCL regulations are adopted). Note that the carbon accounting methodology that is expected to be required for 7 Based on the analysis of the City’s portfolio that staff presented in the May 2019 UAC report, a carbon accounting methodology using average hourly emissions factors yields an annual carbon emissions total about 16,100 mT CO2 greater than an annual accounting approach—which is the approach the City currently uses and which the state is expected to require utilities to use on their PCLs. 8 The exact number of RECs that would need to be purchased would depend on where the RECs were generated, as the emissions value of a REC is generally assigned the average emissions profile of the power mix in the region it is generated. Regional emissions profile data can be found in the U.S. EPA’s eGRID database: https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2018-02/documents/egrid2016_summarytables.pdf. Page 12 of 19 calculating the City’s emissions intensity on its PCL is an annual accounting approach, similar to what the City currently uses. Under the “Sell Supplies Exceeding RPS Requirement” approach the emissions intensity of the City’s electric portfolio as reported on the PCL would be between 70 and 180 lb CO2/MWh (with an average value of 97 lb CO2/MWh), far lower than the California-wide average emissions intensity of 528 lb CO2/MWh.9 For context, however, some other energy providers, such as neighboring Community Choice Aggregators (CCAs) like Silicon Valley Clean Energy and publicly owned utilities (POUs) like Alameda Municipal Power will likely be reporting zero emissions intensity on their PCLs. If this option were pursued, staff would need a focused public relations and engagement effort to help the public and the City’s most active stakeholders understand the environmentally beneficial intent of the strategy and how CPAU ’s portfolio remains carbon neutral. Figure 5: PCL Emissions Intensities under Various RPS Compliance Strategies (2019-2030) And finally, Figure 6 below illustrates how customers would see the portfolio supply mix depicted on their annual Power Content Label for the year 2020, for the three primary RPS compliance strategy options listed above. 9 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s eGRID 2016 data for the “CAMX” region: https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2018-02/documents/egrid2016_summarytables.pdf Page 13 of 19 Figure 6: Power Content Label Supply Charts for Various RPS Compliance Strategies in 2020 The information in the figures above, comparing the three major RPS compliance strategy options discussed in this report, is summarized in Table 2 below. Table 2: Summary Comparison of Various RPS Compliance Strategy Options (Average Impacts over 2019-2030 Timeframe) Status Quo Sell Supplies > Load (While Remaining Carbon Neutral) Sell Supplies Exceeding RPS Requirement Supply Cost Savings ($M/year) --- $1.2M +$1.9M ($3.1M total) Retail Rate Savings (%) --- 0.7% +1.2% (1.9% total) RPS Level (%)* 60% 51% 40% Hourly Carbon Accounting Emissions Intensity (lb CO2/MWh) (79) 0 137 (w/o RECs) 0 (with RECs) PCL Emissions Intensity (lb CO2/MWh)** (119) (43) 97 *The average annual RPS level required under state RPS regulations during this period is 45.4%. The average RPS level for the “Sell Supplies Exceeding RPS Requirement” approach is less than this due to the SB 100 exemption for municipal utilities with high concentrations of large hydro resources, as described above. **The average emissions intensity for market power in California is assumed to be 944 lb CO2/MWh, while the average emissions intensity of the state’s overall fuel mix is 528 lb CO2/MWh. Premium Rate Options As discussed above, another possibility that the City could consider for its RPS compliance strategy is to provide customers with a choice of different rate options—similar to how commercial customers in Palo Alto today have the option of signing up for the PaloAltoGreen rate in order to purchase additional RECs. For example, customers could be given the choice of continuing to receive the current electric supply mix (the Status Quo approach) or a lower cost Page 14 of 19 option (the Sell Supplies Exceeding RPS Requirement approach). They could even be given the option of receiving a supply mix that is guaranteed to provide them with a carbon neutral power supply every hour of the year. It should be noted, however, that the customer rate option approach would involve some significant logistical hurdles and staff effort, particularly in terms of customer communication. (Staff estimates that implementing this option would involve an initial cost of around $400,000, followed by ongoing costs of about $200,000 per year. The level of staff effort required to implement this approach is estimated at about 0.5 FTE.) The City would have to choose, for example, which rate option to make the “default” option and which to make the “opt-in” one, all of which would likely lead to some level of customer confusion and frustration. And from a logistical standpoint, allowing customers to choose from different supply mix options would create a significant amount of uncertainty in total customer demand for the different types of resources, which would likely cause some challenges for staff as they procure resources. Whether all of these challenges are worth it to provide customers a choice of rates that would likely only differ by about 2% (or 0.34 cents/kWh) is an open question for the UAC to consider. CONCLUSION In previous meetings, the UAC expressed a preference for adopting a lower-cost RPS procurement strategy (December 2017) and for employing a carbon accounting methodology that uses hourly average emissions factors (May 2019). The analysis in this report indicates that opting for those two approaches would yield significant supply cost savings, particularly if the City also chooses to continue the use of unbundled RECs to abate the residual emissions associated with the portfolio’s reliance on wholesale market power purchases in dry years. And staff concurs with the UAC’s preference for adopting a more accurate/granular carbon accounting methodology that uses hourly average emissions factors. As for what balance to strike between maintaining the City’s existing portfolio of in-state resources versus reducing supply costs and relying on out-of-state resources, staff feels that increasing the City’s reliance on out-of-state Bucket 3 RECs is justifiable on an environmental value basis. However, before recommending a more aggressive RPS sales approach in order to reduce supply costs, staff is interested in receiving feedback from both the UAC and other members of the community (particularly the environmental community) on that issue. At this time, staff has begun selling some of the City’s renewable resources that exceed its load for 2019 (a position that the UAC appeared to agree with at the June meeting) while awaiting a final decision on whether to take a more aggressive approach to selling resources. As discussed above, one possible option is to have multiple rate options for customers who have different cost and/or portfolio content preferences (e.g., a low-cost option, an option like the current portfolio, or even a more expensive, carbon-neutral-every-hour option) instead of imposing a single portfolio approach on everyone in Palo Alto. However, it should be noted that implementing this approach would require a significant amount of time and staff resources. Page 15 of 19 NEXT STEPS Staff intends to return to the UAC in the coming months to request a formal recommendation on the changes discussed in this report. However, prior to returning to the UAC with a recommendation on these changes, staff plans to engage with members of the environmental community to request input on staff’s position with respect to the environmental benefits of Bucket 3 RECs. After that, staff will take the UAC recommendation to the Finance Committee and the City Council. The City’s carbon accounting methodology is codified in the Council- approved Carbon Neutral Plan (Staff Report 3550, Resolution 9322) and therefore requires Council approval to modify. And although the City’s RPS procurement strategy is not currently codified, staff will still discuss the current approach with Council and seek validation of any significant changes, given the level of financial implications associated with this decision. If the Council supports selling some of the City’s excess renewable supplies, staff would then begin soliciting interest from CCAs and others in short- or long-term acquisition of these resources. In addition, in the first half of next year staff plans to return to the UAC with a broader and longer-term look at potential options for rebalancing the City’s electric supply portfolio. This analysis will be presented in the context of making a decision on whether to renew the City’s Western Base Resource hydro contract after the current one expires at the end of 2024. It will also take into account options for utilizing the City’s share of the California-Oregon Transmission Project, after that resource reverts to the City’s control at the end of 2023. Staff will also continue to closely follow (and comment upon) the CEC’s AB 1110 rulemaking process. Depending on the accounting methodology the CEC finally adopts, staff will work to understand how the City’s methodology can be aligned with the CEC approach, and, to the degree that it cannot, determine how to explain this difference to customers. RESOURCE IMPACT Staff estimates that switching to a more aggressive sales approach to RPS compliance could result in a decrease in supply costs on the order of $3 million per year through 2030 (equivalent to a rate reduction of 0.34 cents/kWh). (This estimate incorporates the effects of switching to an hourly carbon accounting methodology, using average hourly emissions intensity factors, which could result in an increase in supply costs of approximately $60,000 in an average hydrological year.) However, if the City instead chooses to sell only its renewable energy supplies that exceed its annual load (and which are not needed to maintain an overall carbon neutral supply portfolio), the average supply cost savings are estimated to be about $1.2 million per year through 2030 (equivalent to a rate reduction of 0.13 cents/kWh). POLICY IMPLICATIONS This report satisfies Initiatives #4 and #5 of the EIRP Work Plan. This report is also in line with the Sustainability and Climate Action Plan goals of continuing to lower the carbon footprint of the community. ENVIRONMENTAL REVIEW The Utilities Advisory Commission’s discussion of the City’s RPS procurement strategy and carbon accounting methodology does not meet the definition of a project under Public Resources Code 21065 and therefore California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) review is not required. ATTACHMENTS A. RPS Portfolio Detail and Financial Opportunities Associated with Various Alternative Strategies B. Environmental Value of Bucket 3 and Bucket 1 RECs PREPARED BY: REVIEWED BY: APPROVED BY: JIM STACK, Senior Resource Planner LENA PERKINS, Acting Senior Resource Planner JONATHAN ABENDSCHEIN, Assistant Director, Resource Managemen1~ ~~~- DEAN BATCHELOR Director of Utilities Page 16 of 19 Page 17 of 19 ATTACHMENT A: RPS Portfolio Detail and Financial Opportunities Associated with Various Alternative Strategies CY: 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Projected Load MWh 918,878 912,332 905,627 899,248 893,197 887,490 882,089 877,067 872,403 868,132 864,123 860,444 Projected Retail Sales MWh 886,717 880,401 873,930 867,774 861,935 856,428 851,216 846,370 841,869 837,747 833,879 830,328 Total RPS Requirement %31%33%35.75%38.50%41.25%44%47%50%52%54.67%57.33%60% Bucket 1 Min %75%75%75%75%75%75%75%75%75%75%75%75% Bucket 3 Max %10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10% Total RPS Requirement MWh 274,882 290,532 312,430 334,093 355,548 376,828 400,072 423,185 437,772 457,969 478,091 498,197 Bucket 1 Min MWh 206,162 217,899 234,323 250,570 266,661 282,621 300,054 317,389 328,329 343,476 358,568 373,648 Bucket 3 Max MWh 27,488 29,053 31,243 33,409 35,555 37,683 40,007 42,319 43,777 45,797 47,809 49,820 Current Portfolio by Type Large Hydro MWh 544,217 477,993 491,618 485,957 485,957 485,957 478,671 478,671 478,671 478,671 478,671 478,671 Small Hydro MWh 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 Solar MWh 320,668 320,149 318,574 317,006 390,072 388,045 386,029 384,024 382,030 380,046 378,073 376,111 Wind MWh 99,958 100,178 100,087 42,708 42,672 42,672 42,672 42,672 42,672 21,336 - - Landfill Gas MWh 103,489 103,773 103,489 103,489 103,489 103,489 103,489 95,275 94,528 94,528 56,922 38,242 Total Renewables MWh 534,114 534,100 532,150 473,203 546,232 544,206 542,190 531,971 529,230 505,910 444,996 424,353 Bucket 0 MWh 213,447 213,951 213,576 156,197 156,161 156,161 156,161 147,946 147,200 125,864 66,922 48,242 Bucket 1 MWh 320,668 320,149 318,574 317,006 390,072 388,045 386,029 384,024 382,030 380,046 378,073 376,111 RPS Level %60.2%60.7%60.9%54.5%63.4%63.5%63.7%62.9%62.9%60.4%53.4%51.1% Large Hydro Level %61.4%54.3%56.3%56.0%56.4%56.7%56.2%56.6%56.9%57.1%57.4%57.6% Hydro-Adjusted RPS Requirement %31.0%33.0%35.8%38.5%41.3%43.3%43.8%43.4%43.1%42.9%42.6%42.4% Hydro-Adjusted RPS Requirement MWh 274,882 290,532 312,430 334,093 355,548 370,471 372,545 367,699 363,198 359,076 355,207 351,657 Total RECs Available MWh 534,114 534,100 532,150 473,203 546,232 544,206 542,190 531,971 529,230 505,910 444,996 424,353 Total RECs to Sell (Bucket 1)MWh 286,720 272,621 250,963 172,520 226,239 210,782 206,900 201,042 202,352 182,742 125,309 107,862 Total Bucket 3 to Buy MWh 27,488 29,053 31,243 33,409 35,555 37,047 37,254 36,770 36,320 35,908 35,521 35,166 Bucket 1 Premium $/MWh 18.00$ 18.00$ 17.50$ 17.00$ 16.50$ 16.50$ 16.00$ 16.00$ 15.50$ 15.50$ 15.00$ 15.00$ Bucket 3 Premium $/MWh 1.25$ 1.50$ 1.60$ 1.70$ 1.80$ 1.90$ 2.00$ 2.10$ 2.20$ 2.30$ 2.40$ 2.50$ Total Financial Opportunities CY: 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Sell RPS Supplies > Load (Stay CN)$M (2.2)$ (1.1)$ (1.4)$ (0.3)$ (1.6)$ (1.7)$ (1.6)$ (1.5)$ (1.5)$ (1.2)$ (0.3)$ (0.0)$ Sell RPS Supplies > RPS Req. Total $M (5.0)$ (4.6)$ (4.1)$ (2.7)$ (3.5)$ (3.3)$ (3.1)$ (3.0)$ (2.9)$ (2.6)$ (1.6)$ (1.4)$ Bucket Swapping $M (0.5)$ (0.5)$ (0.5)$ (0.5)$ (0.5)$ (0.5)$ (0.5)$ (0.5)$ (0.5)$ (0.5)$ (0.4)$ (0.4)$ Residual Emissions Cleanup $M 0.2$ 0.3$ 0.2$ 0.2$ 0.2$ 0.1$ 0.1$ 0.1$ 0.1$ 0.2$ 0.2$ 0.2$ Sell RPS Supplies > RPS Req.$M (4.7)$ (4.4)$ (3.8)$ (2.4)$ (3.1)$ (2.9)$ (2.7)$ (2.6)$ (2.6)$ (2.3)$ (1.3)$ (1.1)$ Page 18 of 19 ATTACHMENT B: Environmental Value of Bucket 3 and Bucket 1 RECs Both of the changes discussed in this report—to the City’s carbon accounting methodology and its RPS procurement strategy—have the potential to increase the City’s reliance on unbundled, out-of- state RECs (also known as “Bucket 3 RECs”). Particularly if the City chooses the “Sell Supplies Exceeding RPS Requirement” approach to RPS compliance, as this would involve selling a large volume of its in-state (Bucket 1) RECs and replacing them with much less expensive Bucket 3 RECs. Given this potential shift in approach, it is worth considering the relative environmental value of Bucket 1 and Bucket 3 RECs. After all, given that Bucket 1 RECs currently cost about 12 times as much as Bucket 3 RECs, there is sometimes a perception that Bucket 1 RECs have much greater environmental value as well. First off, it should be noted that according to all industry accounting protocols (other than the CEC’s PCL accounting standard), “a REC is a multi-attribute commodity that embodies all of the non-energy benefits associated with the generation of renewable energy. A REC can be separated from the underlying electricity and applied to other electricity use to substantiate renewable electricity use and ownership.”10 So although it would be very difficult to determine what generating resource reduced its output as a result of that renewable energy generator being on the grid, all RECs by definition embody the avoided emissions associated with renewable energy (i.e., the carbon attribute). The intent with all of the environmental products that staff has considered (including RECs, carbon offsets, carbon allowances, etc.) is to have a direct impact on mitigating carbon emissions—to provide some “additionality,” in the parlance of environmental product markets. To determine whether Bucket 3 RECs pass the additionality test, one would have to know whether the expectation of this additional (small) source of revenue directly contributed to the deployment of an individual renewable energy project. In most cases, of course, this would be difficult, if not impossible, to know. But regardless of one’s view on whether Bucket 3 REC purchases result in additional renewable energy being built on the grid, the City has already contributed to the construction of additional California-based renewable energy through its past efforts. The ““Sell Supplies Exceeding RPS Requirement”” approach is only intended to trade one form of renewable energy for another, freeing up money for additional decarbonization efforts. Fortunately, there is a fairly large body of academic research on the environmental value of unbundled RECs. Based on staff’s review of this literature, it appears that allowing the trading of a significant volume of unbundled RECs (up to 25% of all RECs generated) throughout the Western US electrical grid (known as the Western Electricity Coordinating Council, or WECC) can result in a lowering of the overall cost of electricity without having any net effect on carbon emissions within the WECC.11 (Note that Palo Alto is only contemplating using Bucket 3 RECs for up to 10% of its 10 “Renewable Energy Certificates, Carbon Offsets, and Carbon Claims: Best Practices and Frequently Asked Questions,” Center for Resource Solutions, April 2012. Accessed May 12, 2019. https://resource-solutions.org/wp- content/uploads/2015/08/RECsOffsetsQA.pdf. 11 Perez, A., Sauma, E., Munoz, F., and Hobbs, B. (2016). “The Economic Effects of Interregional Trading of Renewable Energy Certificates in the U.S. WECC,” The Energy Journal, Volume 37(4). http://dx.doi.org/10.5547/01956574.37.4.aper. Page 19 of 19 overall RPS requirement—or about 5% of its total load—as that is the limit set by the state’s RPS legislation.) Furthermore, it should be noted that buying unbundled RECs that are produced by generators operating in the dirtiest parts of the grid—for example, from a wind farm located in a state with a heavy reliance on coal—could actually yield even greater carbon savings than buying in-state RECs, given how relatively low-carbon California’s electricity mix is. Purchasing out-of-state RECs from more carbon-intensive regions incentivizes additional development of renewable energy generation in those areas, and thus makes coal-fired power plants less and less economic to maintain and operate.12 (By depressing wholesale market prices, wind and solar generators eat into coal plants’ revenues and also force them to run less frequently.) Based on the two points above, staff believes that the City could conceivably maximize its use of Bucket 3 RECs, save a significant amount of money, and have about the same impact on the grid’s carbon emissions as the current portfolio does, at least in the near- to mid-term. If some of the money saved were to be devoted to other deep decarbonization efforts (for example, electrification of transportation and building energy use) it could result in a greater carbon impact per dollar spent. At a minimum, the academic research supports the current City position that Bucket 3 RECs are a valid tool to use in dry hydro years to ensure that the electricity portfolio is carbon neutral. It is also worth noting that the primary justification for the high requirement for Bucket 1 RECs in California’s RPS legislation is to improve in-state air quality and create in-state jobs. If Palo Alto were to use some of the money saved from maximizing its use of Bucket 3 RECs towards local electric ratepayer benefits, perhaps including building decarbonization and increasing the use of electric vehicles, these efforts would similarly improve local air quality and create local jobs. Given the amount of money involved in such a change in the City’s RPS policies, and the impact it would have on the portfolio, staff is still investigating the merits of these claims about the value of Bucket 3 RECs. In addition, based on the concerns expressed by some commissioners at the June UAC meeting about the public perception of such a policy shift, staff also plans to meet with various environmental community stakeholders to get their input on such a change. Staff will return to the UAC to share this feedback before making a recommendation on which RPS procurement strategy to follow. 12 Bistline, J., Santen, N., and Young, D. (2019). “The Economic Geography of Variable Renewable Energy and Impacts of Trade Formulations for Renewable Mandates,” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Volume 106, Pages 79-96. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2019.02.026. 2 MEMORANDUM TO: FROM: UTILITIES ADVISORY COMMISSION UTILITIES DEPARTMENT DATE: AUGUST 7, 2019 SUBJECT: Discussion of Palo Alto's Water Supply Reliability The attached presentation addresses water supply reliability for the City of Palo Alto. The City of Palo Alto purchases 100% of its water supply from the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission (SFPUC). Under SFPUC's water supply reliability level of service goal, in droughts, Palo Alto will be required to reduce water use by no more than 23% under most circumstances. Climate change and other changes to the California water system will likely result in more frequent water supply shortages. The question addressed in the attached presentation is whether this level of water supply reliability during a drought is adequate for Palo Alto, and if not, how much the community would be willing to pay for additional water supply reliability. Specifically, the questions for discussion are: • Is a 23% water use reduction during drought enough supply reliability for the Palo Alto community? • Can the Palo Alto community sustain a 23% reduction? (Think about the 5th or 10th consecutive year of drought.) • If Palo Alto could participate in a project that would mitigate the impact of drought on people and businesses whereby water use reductions would be kept to less than 20% in most drought conditions, is that something the community would want? How much would the community be willing to pay for that project? • $225,000/year (0.5% rate increase)? • $450,000/year (1% rate increase)? • $900,000/year (2% rate increase)? Attachment: Attachment A: Palo Alto Water Supply Reliability Presentation REVIEWED BY: JONATHAN ABENDSCHEIN, Asst. Director, Utility Resource Mgmt. APPROVED BY: ~~tL- DEAN BA Utilities General Manager PALO ALTO WATER SUPPLY RELIABILITY Utilities Advisory Commission August 7, 2019 2 Outline •Water supply overview •Experience in 2014-2017 drought •SFPUC level of service goal •Drought allocations •Drought risk •Discussion questions •Potential projects •BAWSCA Projects (drought insurance) •Local Projects (recycled water/groundwater) 3 Water Supply Overview •100% potable water supplies from San Francisco Public Utilities Commission (SFPUC) Regional Water System o 85% Tuolumne River, 15% local reservoirs •Recycled water used at some City facilities including Greer Park and Municipal Golf Course •8 emergency water wells (can be used during droughts; system currently configured for short-term use) •7 storage reservoirs for fire protection (not for drought mitigation) •SFPUC did not declare water supply shortage due to state emergency actions •Palo Alto’s mandatory “conservation standard” was 24% (relative to 2013 usage) •Palo Alto’s cumulative savings was 31.4% (June 2015 –May 2016) •Actions taken: –Stepped up outreach and education –Stepped up enforcement including app for citizen reporting –Updated muni code to clarify violation protocol and fines of $100 per violation for certain outdoor water use restrictions –Increased conservation and efficiency efforts including communication about lawn replacement –Various temporary measures, some of which became permanent (next slide) 4 Experience in Last Drought •Restrictions in Muni Code before drought –No flooding or run-off –Fix leaks promptly –Shut –off valve required for washing cars, boats, hard surfaces –Use recycled water for construction when available •Permanent Restrictions added after drought –No automatic irrigating between 10 am and 6 pm –No potable water in fountains –No potable water for street sweepers –Commercial carwashes recirculate •Additional Restrictions during drought –Irrigation only 2 days per week –Water at restaurants upon request –Hotels offer not to launder daily 5 Water Use Restrictions •Water consumption for BAWSCA Customers in 2019 so far is 7.9% lower than in 2013 •Palo Alto’s water consumption in the first six months of FY 2019 (July –December) is 10.9%lower than in CY 2013; some amount of permanent conservation resulting from the drought •Impact on rates –fixed costs still need to be recovered so drought surcharges occur when usage is depressed –bills may not decrease with reduced water usage –No drought surcharges are currently in effect 6 Experience in Last Drought and Long-term Impact 7 SFPUC Level of Service Goal SFPUC Regional Water System •SFPUC Level of Service Goal: No more than 20 percent system-wide rationing during drought •SFPUC plans for an 8.5-year dry period based upon actual conditions from the 1987-92 and 1976-77 droughts combined 8 Water Shortage Allocation Plans Water Shortage Allocation Plan (Tier 1 Plan) •Allocates water between SFPUC (retail) and Wholesale Customers •Contractual agreement between Wholesale Customers and SFPUC •Applicable only when SFPUC determines there is a system-wide water shortage due to drought up to 20% Tier 2 Drought Implementation Plan •Allocates water among Wholesale Customers for system-wide shortages up to 20% •Agreement among Wholesale Customers •Formula considers Individual Supply Guarantee, Base vs. Seasonal use Tier 1 allocation •20% system-wide shortage •26.98% cutback for Wholesale Customers (assuming cutback from FY 2012-2013 actual demands) Tier 2 allocation •23.19% cutback for Palo Alto Tier 2 formula is in the process of being revised but is still expected to impact suburban agencies with irrigation loads more 9 SFPUC 20% Shortage Declaration 10 Palo Alto Annual Water Purchases Since 1988 - 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 19 8 8 19 8 9 19 9 0 19 9 1 19 9 2 19 9 3 19 9 4 19 9 5 19 9 6 19 9 7 19 9 8 19 9 9 20 0 0 20 0 1 20 0 2 20 0 3 20 0 4 20 0 5 20 0 6 20 0 7 20 0 8 20 0 9 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 20 1 7 20 1 8 20 1 9 20 2 0 20 2 5 20 3 0 20 3 5 20 4 0 An n a u l P u r c h a s e s f r o m S F P U C ( A F / Y r ) Fiscal Year Actual Forecast 23% cutback from 2018 level Historical droughts were worse than we’ve seen recently: •Recorded hydrology of about 100 years does not fully represent range of climate system’s natural variability •More serious droughts in the past based on tree-ring chronologies •23 of the past 100 years have been drought years Future water shortages may be severe and more frequent: •Climate change is expected to reduce snowpack and cause longer, deeper, and more frequent California droughts (California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment, 2018) •Changes to the State water system may also reduce water availability in dry years 11 “Water management is risk management and our risks are changing” Wade Crowfoot, CA Secretary for Natural Resources. •Is a 23% water use reduction during drought enough supply reliability for the Palo Alto community? •Can the Palo Alto community sustain a 23% reduction? (Think about the 5th or 10th consecutive year of drought.) •If Palo Alto could participate in a project that would mitigate the impact of drought on people and businesses whereby water use reductions would be kept to less than 20% in most drought conditions, is that something the community would want? How much would the community be willing to pay for that project? –$225,000/year (0.5% rate increase)? –$450,000/year (1% rate increase)? –$900,000/year (2% rate increase)? 12 Discussion Questions 13 Potential Projects -BAWSCA •BAWSCA identified need for dry-year supplies •Water Transfers •Water Storage •Water Conservation –Water Conservation programs being actively pursued; Advanced Metering Infrastructure will bring opportunities for conservation •Water Reuse –Recycled Water Options –Northwest County Recycled Water Strategic Plan 14 Local Projects to Reduce Imported Water/Increase Resiliency •Groundwater –Palo Alto could pump about 24% of potable demand (preliminary estimates) –Groundwater may be restricted in multi-year droughts